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Test 2 2011

The document contains 4 questions regarding statistics. Question 1 asks about true/false statements. Question 2 involves probabilities related to marriage licenses and insect populations. Question 3 covers probability distributions and functions. Question 4 analyzes television production data using linear regression and trend forecasting.

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52 views2 pages

Test 2 2011

The document contains 4 questions regarding statistics. Question 1 asks about true/false statements. Question 2 involves probabilities related to marriage licenses and insect populations. Question 3 covers probability distributions and functions. Question 4 analyzes television production data using linear regression and trend forecasting.

Uploaded by

deklerkkimberey45
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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University of Botswana

Department of Statistics
STA 114: Business Statistics I

Test 2: March 2011 Duration: 1Hour 45 Mins

Instruction: Attempt ALL questions


Question 1

State whether the following statistical statements are TRUE or FALSE

1. Irregular component is the component of a time series model that results in periodic above-
trend and below-trend behavior of time series lasting for more than a year.
2. A normal random variable is symmetric about the mean and the mean is less than the
median.
3. The random variable which is a count of items of one type in a random sample of n items
selected with replacement from an N population consisting of two types of items is
distributed as a hyper-geometric.

4. A probability function is a rule of correspondence or equation that assigns values of x to the


events of a probability experiment.

5. If a random variable X is distributed as Uniform (5, 8), then the variance of X is 0.75.
[5x2 = 10 Marks]

Question 2
(a) The number of marriage licenses issued in a certain city during the month of August
follows a normal distribution with average 134 and variance 36. During any typical
month, what is the probability that
(i) at least 150 licenses will be issued?
(ii) between 120 and 154 marriages licenses will be issued?
(iii) due to a large number of divorces in the City, suppose the District
Commissioner’s office wants to establish a policy such that only about 90% of the
licenses are issued during the month. How many licenses will be given in a
month?

(b) In a study of the effectiveness of an insecticide against a certain insect, a large area of
land was sprayed. Later, the area was examined for live insects by randomly selecting
squares and counting the number of live insects per square. Past experience has shown
the average number of live insects per square after spraying to be 0.5.

(i) What is the probability that a selected square will contain no live insect?
(ii) What is the probability that a selected square will contain at most 1 live insect?
(iii) What is the probability that a selected square will contain at least one live insect?
(iv) What is the variance of the number of life insects? [3+4+4+2+3+3+1 =20 Marks]

Question 3
(a) A carton of 6 flashlight batteries contains 2 that are defective and 4 that are non-
defective. If we select 3 batteries at random from the carton,

(i) state the probability distribution suitable for describing the number of defective
batteries selected.

(ii) what is the probability that the sample contains at most 1 defective battery?

(b) Suppose a continuous function of a random variable X is defined as

( )
{

(i) Show that the function is a valid probability function.

(ii) Find P(X < 1.5)

(iii) Find the mean of the random variable X.

[2+3+5+5+5 = 20 Marks]

Question 4

For the years 1977 through 1985, the number of television sets produced and/or sold in the
United States was 15400, 17400, 16600, 18500, 18480, 16400, 19680, 22200, 20500.

(i) Plot a graph of the time series.

(ii) Estimate a linear trend equation for the series using the least squares regression
method given the following summary of the data:

1985 1985

t  0  Yt  165160
t 1977
Y
t 1977
t t  38860 t 2
 60

(iii) Plot the estimated linear trend on the same graph as that for the time series.

(iv) Using the linear trend equation obtained in (iii), forecast the number of television
sets produced and/or sold in the United States for the year 1990.

[4+8+6+2 = 20 Marks]

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