Lohia Securities LTD.: Goodricke Group Limited
Lohia Securities LTD.: Goodricke Group Limited
Dear Patrons...
The tea industry occupies a place of considerable importance in the Indian economy. The Vintage 172 year old Indian tea Industry is the largest tea producer in the world accounting for 28% of the global production. Though India is the largest tea producer in the world, it is third in terms of exports due to the widespread domestic consumption. In fact, it is the largest consumer of tea with a 23% share of the total tea demand in the world. Tea contributes about Rs.7000 Crore per annum to Indias GNP with annual export earnings of Rs.2000 Crore. It employs around 1.26 million people at tea plantations and 2 million people indirectly. Tea can be broadly divided into two types--black tea and green tea, and India mainly produces black tea as domestic consumers prefer that. There are mainly two methods of manufacturing black tea--the Crush Tear & Curl (CTC) process and the orthodox process. Unlike other countries, India produces both CTC and Orthodox tea, in addition to green tea. Tea production in India is usually in the range of 928-982 million kgs. Assam and West Bengal (known in industry parlance as North Indian teas) account for the largest chunk of production in India at around 53% and 20% of total tea production respectively. In the south, it is mainly produced in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. India exports around 20% of its total tea production, of which, around 43% is exported to Russian and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries. India also exports to European countries, USA, Japan, West Asia and Asia Pacific region. In India, tea is sold through auction centres and private dealings. Out of the approximate annual domestic consumption of around 800 million kgs, 40-45% is packaged and sold, while the rest is sold as loose tea. The domestic and global scenario looks positive for the Indian Tea industry. The global mismatch in demand-supply is expected to continue into CY2011. There is a noticeable change in the climatic conditions worldwide with erratic rainfall distribution and unpredictable precipitation levels due to global warming. This will play an important role in tea cultivation going forward. If this scenario continues it will tantamount to increase revenues for the tea industry in terms of higher tea prices. In India, we believe tea prices are expected to remain firm as supply would not improve in the future due to the negligible area addition under tea cultivation and lengthy gestation period of a tea plant (approximately 5 years). The domestic tea consumption is increasing at a CAGR of 2% every year while worldwide demand is expected to remain at higher levels. Goodricke Group Limited is best placed to benefit from this mismatch due to its track record of producing superior quality tea and its regular initiatives to improve yield. The opportunity before it lies in the fact that the market in the medium term will be demand led and despite the pipeline shortage in India, poorer teas would be discounted. Keeping in view its track record of producing quality tea, we are quite optimistic about this companys future.
Particulars
Company: Contents: --Company Profile --Investment Rationale --Risk & Concern --Results Update --Financial Highlights --Outlook & Valuation Company Office Branches Research Team Disclaimer
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Investment Rationale
Demand-Supply mismatch in tea industry Good export demand expected High yield tea estates Debt free company Acquisitions & Expansion plans Increasing focus on packet and instant tea Government/Tea Authority Initiatives
CY11E 4,500 13% 909 809 571 26.44 27% 4.80 1.46 34.49%
CY12E 5,137 14% 1,097 985 699 32.35 22% 3.93 1.12 32.28%
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Goodricke Group, one of the major tea plantation companies in India, was incorporated in West Bengal on 14th June 1977 as a Public Limited Company under the provisions of the Companies Act 1956 (Act). The company grows, cultivates, manufactures, treats, blends, processes, buys, sells and deals in tea in various forms. The Goodricke Group at present has 17 tea gardens. Of these, 12 estates are in the district of Jalpaiguri, 3 in Darjeeling in West Bengal and 2 in Darrang district of Assam. All the 17 existing tea gardens of Goodricke Group were once owned by eight Sterling Tea Companies. They had established these tea gardens progressively in late 1800s and were carrying on business in tea in India. The sterling companies are: Assam-Dooars Tea, Chulsa Tea, Hope Tea, Leesh River Tea, Lebong Tea, Danguajhar Tea, British Darjeeling Tea and Meenglas Tea. Pursuant to Section 29(2)(a) of the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act, 1973, the Reserve Bank of India agreed to grant permission to carry on business to the Sterling companies subject to takeover of the Gardens by an Indian Company to be formed. Accordingly based on schemes of merger and with the sanction of Calcutta High Court, the 8 Sterling Companies were amalgamated with Goodricke Group with effect from 1st January 1978. Goodricke annually produces 30 Mn Kgs of tea.
Products
Bulk Teas: CTC and Orthodox teas from the Dooars, Darjeeling and Assam gardens are sold in bulk form packed in paper sacks, jute bags or tea chests. The quality and popularity of teas from the Group are reflected in the prices realized which rank amongst the top in the Industry. The marketing channels used for bulk teas include the Public auction System, private and consignment sales, Exports and Direct Sales either in original or blended form. Bulk tea forms 99% of Goodrickes overall operations. Instant Tea: The instant tea segment contributes about 1-2% to Goodrickes overall sales & volume mix and focuses primarily on export market. The Goodricke Group developed the concept of instant tea from green leaf at its research and development centre for 4 years before setting up the worlds first integrated Instant Tea Plant at Aibheel Tea Garden in the Dooars. This is a state of the art, computerised automated plant and its establishment in 1994 as an Export Oriented Unit marks a major development in the Indian Tea Industry. The company holds patent for hot water soluble and cold water soluble instant teas. However, Goodrickes cost of production is relatively higher compared to other international suppliers.
Brands
The companys diversified brands are: Darjeeling Teas Badamtam Chestlet Badamtam Sencha Green Tea Caddy Castleton Premium Darjeeling Three-in-One Metal Caddy Margarets Hope Caddy Premium Darjeeling Carton Seasons Three-in One Pinewood Chestlet Special Darjeeling Roasted Jar Thurbo Carton Multi Origin Blends Barnesbeg Organic Green tea Goodricke Chai CTC Dust Goodricke Chai CTC Leaf Goodricke Fine Estate Tea Bags Goodricke Perfect Goodricke premium CTC Leaf Goodricke Premium CTC Leaf Carton Zabardast CTC Leaf Zabardast CTC Dust
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Credit Rating
Date 16-Feb-2011 16-Feb-2011 Instrument Type Short-term Bank Facilities Long-term Bank Facilities Rating Agency CARE CARE Rating PR3 BBBAmount `60.48Cr `360.07Cr
Management
Name Mr. P.J.Field Mr. A.N.Singh Mr. A.K.Mathur Dr. S.Kaul Mr. K.Sinha Mr. P.K.Sen Mr. D.P.Chakravarti Mr. A.Sengupta Designation Chairman Managing Director & CEO Director Director Director Director Vice-President & Company Secretary Chief Accountant & Chief Financial Officer
Major Shareholders
Shareholder Koomber Properties Leasing Company Ltd. Satish Kumar Bhasin SBIFM-Magnum Sector Funds Umbrella-Emerging % of Outstanding 3.12% 2.10% 1.42%
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Demand-Supply mismatch in tea industry: Indian tea production has stagnated over the past five years and has been range bound between 928 million kgs and 982 million kgs, at the same time domestic consumption has increased from 780 million kgs in CY2005 to 865 million kgs in CY2010. The domestic tea consumption is increasing at a CAGR of approximately 2%. The demand and supply gap will widen in the coming years as production levels have not increased due to limited scope of increasing acreage under cultivation and insufficient investment in replenishing low yielding plants.
Good export demand expected: The export demand for Indian teas is expected to be robust this year. The Kenyan crops are almost down by 20 Mn and production in Sri Lanka has also been hampered due to dry weather conditions over there. So there will be a shortage of tea in the international market. We are hopeful that this year Indian exports will pickup. Increase in exports to premium markets in Europe and other regions will enable Goodricke to enhance its margins. High yield tea estates: The Goodricke Group at present has 17 tea gardens. Of these, 12 estates are in the district of Jalpaiguri, 3 in Darjeeling in West Bengal and 2 in Darrang district of Assam. Goodrickes tea estates follow uptodate field practices, to improve upon the quality standards. The age profile of tea bushes have improved as a result of the ongoing uprooting & replanting of old bushes. The companys commitment to provide quality tea to its customers is expected to add significantly to the bottomline of the company. Debt free company: In CY10, Goodricke has reduced its debts to nil from Rs. 92.56 Mn in CY09. This augurs well for the company in the present high interest rate regime where margins of most of the companies are dented by high interest & financial charges. In future it is expected to have limited debt exposure mainly in the form of working capital loan. In the event of these loans being raised, the interest cost is not likely to pressurize the bottomline as the quantum of such loans are expected to be small and Goodricke with its strong balance sheet will be able to raise them on favourable terms. Acquisitions and expansion plans: Goodricke Group is scouting for acquisitions in the African region which are known for their high yields and low costs. These acquisitions will allow the company to reap benefits of increased volume growth and better margins going ahead. Overseas acquisitions provide a hedge against the volatility in production that may result from operations in India alone due to weather
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uncertainties and labour unrests. It is also open to acquiring more gardens in Assam. In the event of such acquisitions, Goodricke plans to raise money mainly through rights issue. The company is also looking to get into horticulture and agricultural products such as fruit juices, pineapple canning and tomatoes. This would further enhance the bottomline of the company. The company also plans to modernize 3 factories, enhance labour welfare and improve irrigation facilities in the coming fiscal. Increasing focus on packet & instant tea: Goodricke Group on the back of rising tea prices have increased its focus on its packet tea business. The company aims to increase its packet tea business from 6 Mn kgs to 10 Mn kgs in the next 2 years. It has taken strong marketing initiatives in the form of: a strong in-house marketing team vis--vis appointment of agents, entering into new geographical areas such as UP, Bihar and Southern India, and, targeting new client segments such as institutional sales and retail chains to promote its packet tea. The rising tea prices should increase the margins on packet tea for Goodricke Group thus enhancing its bottomline. Goodrickes sale of instant tea (including iced tea) is around 300 tonnes including 200 tonnes in export market. Goodricke has a capacity to produce 600 tonnes of instant tea annually and the company is looking to increase its sales in this segment overseas moving beyond Japan and Europe. To achieve this, the company is looking to make new launches like tea bags in the overseas market.
Government/Tea Authority Initiatives: Besides the Special Tea Fund, the Tea Board of India is also taking active steps to arrest the declining popularity of tea against other beverages like coffee, malt and soft drinks. For instance, the Indian Tea Board and the Indian Teas Association are promoting tea as a health drink by highlighting its anti-oxidant properties. It has also appointed a well-known ad-agency to handle its promotional campaigns. This would indirectly benefit tea companies in India.
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infrastructure costs and increasing energy and other input costs remain the major problems for the Indian Tea Industry. Competition from other tea producing countries: The major competitive countries in tea in the world are Sri Lanka, Kenya, China and Indonesia. China is the major producer of green tea while Sri Lanka and Indonesia are producing mainly orthodox varieties of tea. Kenya is basically a CTC tea producing country. While India is facing competition from Sri Lanka and Indonesia with regard to export of orthodox teas and from China with regard to green tea export, it is facing competition from Kenya and from other African countries in exporting CTC teas. Because of absence of large domestic base and due to comparatively small range of exportable items, Sri Lanka and Kenya have an edge over India to offload their teas in any international markets. This is one of the reasons of higher volume of export by Sri Lanka and Kenya compared to India. Another important point is that, U.K has substantial interest in tea cultivation in Kenya. Most of the sterling companies, after Indianisation due to implementation of FERA Act started tea cultivation in Kenya. So, it makes business sense for U.K. to buy tea from Kenya and Kenya became the largest supplier of tea to U.K.
25% 5% 9% 10%
23%
16% 5%6%6%
China Indonesia
Unorganized Players: Domestic tea market is flooded with unorganized and regional players competing directly with large established national players. The small regional players typically dominate in local state level markets and primarily compete on pricing front. It becomes difficult for large organize players to respond to localized marketing strategies adopted by these smaller players in timely manner. However, Goodricke Group is a producer of quality teas only and under the recent scenario of rising preference for quality tea, risk of competition of unorganized players is mitigated. Foreign exchange fluctuations: Tea being an in important global commodity is subjected to exchange rate fluctuations. Unusual currency movement may impact earnings as most companies in tea industry are highly export reliant.
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YoY(%) 11% -11% 11% 15% -21% 24% -36% -79% 15% -42%
Q1CY11 637 19 656 896 -240 -37.62% 22 -262 -41.10% 2.60 0.20 -260 -40.73% 0
QoQ(%) 18% -40% 17% -22% 128% 16% 116% -73% 2950% 114%
-42%
-260 -40.73%
114%
Income from Operations increased by 11% to `765 Mn in Q2CY 11 as against `692 Mn in Q2CY10. The increase in sales was due to increase in realization per Kg. Employee expenses increased by 27% to `413 Mn in Q2CY11 as against `326 Mn in Q2CY10. This was due to the increase in labour wages during the quarter. Total expenditure increased by 15% during the quarter on YoY basis. EBITDA Margin declined to 9.01% from 12.70% in Q2CY10. This is because increase in expenditure was higher than increase in income. Depreciation expense increased by 24% during the quarter. EBIT of the company declined by 36% during the quarter. Other income declined by 79% during the quarter. PAT declined by 42% on YoY basis mainly due to lower EBITDA and higher depreciation cost.
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CY09 3,718 132 -26 1,006 246 1,143 336 40 268 191 3,204 645 73 572 41 531 111 419
CY10 3,993 85 -214 1,145 296 1,234 356 45 294 179 3,337 741 95 646 15 631 181 450
CY11E 4,500 96 -214 1,217 334 1,384 401 49 324 191 3,687 909 100 809 16 793 222 571
CY12E 5,137 111 -214 1,369 370 1,541 453 51 365 216 4,151 1,097 113 985 14 971 272 699
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CY11E 571 100 671 (90) 124 34 705 (240) (323) (563) 0 0 (126) (141) 1 199 200
CY12E 699 113 811 (168) 118 (50) 761 (250) (375) (625) 0 0 (126) (126) 10 200 210
Net Cash flow from Operations 577 528 Cash Flow from Investment Activities Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Increase in Investments (190) (0) (231) 0
Net Cash flow from Investment Activities (190) (231) Cash Flow from Financing Activities Change in Equity 0 0 Change in Debt (206) (93) Dividends Paid (101) (126) Net Cashflow from Financing Activities (320) (209) Net Increase in Cash & Cash Equivalents 67 88 Cash & cash equivalents at the beginning Cash & cash equivalents at the end
*Lohia research estimates
45 112
112 199
Financial Ratios
CY09 Profitability Ratios Return on Assets (ROA) Return on Equity (ROE) Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Acid Test Ratio Debt-Equity Ratio Interest Cover Margin Ratios EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin PBT Margin Net Profit Margin
*Lohia research estimates
CY10 19.74% 35.40% 45.09% 1.61 0.77 0.00 41.86 18.56% 16.18% 15.80% 11.27%
CY11E 20.56% 34.49% 43.07% 1.51 0.75 0.00 51.36 20.20% 17.98% 17.63% 12.69%
CY12E 20.51% 32.28% 40.19% 1.51 0.76 0.00 68.47 21.36% 19.17% 18.89% 13.60%
17.19% 44.16% 47.61% 1.61 0.88 0.08 13.83 17.36% 15.39% 14.27% 11.28%
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Tata McLeod Jayshree Goodricke Global Russel Tea Group Beverages 87 232 133 127 618.40 1 53,584 17,926 1,806 2.92 29.67 2.59 2.33 109.46 5 25,362 10,731 2,322 21.22 10.92 1.65 2.17 22.34 5 2,979 4,862 463 16.04 8.31 0.84 2.25 21.60 10 2,744 3,993 450 20.83 6.10 1.91 3.94
Rossell India 45 36.70 2 1,657 759 193 5.25 8.57 1.67 0.89
Goodricke
Sensex
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Institutional Team:
Our Fundamental Research Team Name Basanti Gourisaria Gitika Bhansali Krishna K Agarwal Prakash N Sharma Pooja Bajaj Rajkumar Mondal Sailesh Sarda Sonu Shah Vikash Agarwal E-Mail Id [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Our Technical Research Team Name Debraj Sarkar Rajarashi Mukherjee Name Ayush Choudhary Nisha Jhunjhunwala Name Ashok Kamat Deepak Parekh E-Mail Id [email protected] [email protected] Our Derivative & Statistical Research Team E-Mail Id [email protected] [email protected] Institutional Sales E-Mail Id [email protected] [email protected] Contact No. +91 22 24901310 +91 33 40026737 Contact No. +91 33 40026600 +91 33 40026822 Contact No. +91 33 22820391 +91 33 22820392 Contact No. +91 33 40026822 +91 33 40026821 +91 33 40026631 +91 33 40026732 +9133 40026684 +91 33 40026732 +91 33 40026732 +91 33 40026732 +91 33 40026822
Hold (5%-15%)
Sell < 5%
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