STA 1311

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

An experiment often consists of repeated trials, each of which may be considered as having only
two possible outcomes. For example, when a coin is tossed the two possible outcomes are ‘head’
and ‘tail’. When a die is rolled, the two possible outcomes are determined by the random variable
of interest for the experiment. If the event of interest is a ‘six’, then the two outcomes are ‘six’
and ‘not a six’. A Bernoulli sequence is the name used to describe a sequence of trials that
possess the following properties:

 Each trial results in one of two outcomes, which are usually, designated a success, S, or a
failure, F.
 The probability of success on a single trial, p, is constant for all trials, and thus the
probability of failure on a single trial is q=(1− p).
 The trials are independent (so that the outcome on any trial is not affected by the outcome of
any previous trial).

The number of successes in a Bernoulli sequence of n trials is called a binomial random

variable and is said to have a Binomial Probability Distribution

Such a binomial experiment will be denoted by

B(n , p)
The convention in these cases is to call one of the two possible results a success (S) and the other
a failure (F). It is also convenient to make the sample space defining the trial represent this fact
by containing just two elements { S , F }

Consider an experiment with only two outcomes, { S , F } . Let p denote the probability of success
in such experiment and let q=1− p denote the probability of failure. Then, given an acceptable
assignment of probabilities, p+q=1.

Example 1: In a certain country the probability of a female child being born is 0.52. What is the
probability that a family with four children will have two daughters?
 Solution
One way for a family with four children to have two daughters is for the two females to be born
first, followed by two males:
FFMM
Where F represents ‘ female’∧M represents ‘ male ’. The probability of this particular outcome
is:
¿ 0.52 ×0.52 ×0.48 × 0.48
¿¿

Of course, this is only one of the possible ways in which the family could be arranged. How
many different arrangements of FFMM are there? There are 4! arrangements of 4 distinct objects
in a row. In this case there are repetitions, as there are two F ’ s∧two M ’ s. To account for this
divide by 2 ! for the F ’ s ,∧2 ! for the M ’ s , giving;
4!
2! 2 !

which is the expansion of 4C 2, usually denoted in the binomial distribution as ( 42)

Thus, the probability of obtaining exactly two females is given by: ( 42) ¿
This logic can be repeated to find the probability of the random variable X taking any value from
0 to n where there are n trials.

In general, the probability of achieving x successes in n independent trials of a binomial

experiment is

x ()
P ( X=x ) = n p ¿
x

OR

x ()
P ( X=x ) = n p ¿
x

Where

( nx)= x ! ( n−x ) !
n!
Notice also that the probability of no success is

0 ()
P ( X=0 )= n p ¿
x

And, the probability of one or more successes is

n
P( X ≥ 1)=1−q

The constants that determine the specific form of a probability distribution are called
parameters of the distribution. If a random variable X has a probability function of this form,
then X has a binomial distribution with parameters n and p.

Example 2: Find the probability of obtaining exactly three heads when a fair coin is tossed seven
times, correct to four decimal places.
Solution
Obtaining a head is considered a success here, and the probability of success on each of the
seven independent trials is 0.5.
Let X be the number of heads obtained. In this case the parameters are p=0.5 and n=7.

q=1− p=1−0.5=0.5

()
P ( X=x ) = n p ¿
x
x

P ( X=3 )=( 7 ) (0.5) ¿

3

P ( X=3 )=
( 3 ! ( 7−3
7!
) !)
( 0.5) ¿
3

P ( X=3 )= ( 65040
× 24 )
(0.5) ¿ 3

7
¿ 35 ×(0.5)

¿ 0.2734
Example 3: The probability that a marksman hits a target at any timeis 1/3. Suppose he fires at a
target 7 times.

a) What is the probability that he hits the target exactly 3 times?

b) What is the probability that the marksman hits the target at least 1 time?

Solution
1
This is a binomial experiment withn=7 , p= ∧q=1− p=1−1/3=2/3
3
a) Let X be the event of hitting the target. As such, we are interested in X =3.

x ()
P ( X=x ) = n p ¿
x

3 ()
P ( X=3 )= 7 (1/3) ¿
3

P ( X=3 )=
( 3 ! ( 7−3
7!
) !)
3
(1 /3) ¿

¿ 35 × ( 271 ) ×( 1681 )
¿ 0.2560

b) the probability that he hits the target at least once is

n
P( X ≥ 1)=1−q
7

¿ 1− ()
2
3
=1−
128
2187
¿ 1−0.0585=0.94

Example 4: The probability that a person currently in prison has ever been imprisoned before is
0.72. Find the probability that of five prisoners chosen at random at least three have been
imprisoned before, correct to four decimal places.

Solution
If X is the number of prisoners who have been imprisoned before, then
 n=5 , x=3 , p=0.72∧q=1−p=1−0.72=0.28

x
x
()
P ( X=x ) = n p ¿

P ( X ≥3 )=P ( X=3 )+ P ( X=4 ) + P ( X =5 )

()
¿ 5 ( 0.72 ) ¿
3
3

()
¿ 5 ( 0.72 ) ¿
3
3

¿
( 3 ! ( 5−3
5!
)! )
3
( 0.72 ) ¿

¿ ( 10 ×0.723 × 0.282 ) + ( 5 ×0.72 4 × 0.281 ) + ( 1 ×0.725 ×0.28 0 )

¿ 0.2926+ 0.3762+ 0.1935

¿ 0.8623

Example 5: A fair coin is tossed 6 times; call heads a success. What is the probability that

a) Exactly 2 heads occur?

b) What is the probability that at least 4 heads occur?

Solution:
This is a binomial experiment withn=6 , p=0.5∧q=1− p=0.5.
Let X be the random variable representing number of heads

a) Probability that exactly 2 heads occur is

x
x
()
P ( X=x ) = n p ¿

2 ()
P ( X=2 )= 6 (0.5) ¿
2

¿
( 6!
2 ! ( 6−2 ) !)( 0.5 )2 ¿
 ¿ 15 ×0.25 × 0.0625

¿ 0.2343

b) Now we want to calculate the probability of getting at least 4 heads, that is,
X =4 , X=5 ,∨k=6. Hence,
P ( X ≥ 4 )=P ( X=4 ) + P ( X =4 ) + P(X =4)

()
¿ 6 ( 0.5 ) ¿
4
4

¿
( 6!
4 ! ( 6−4 ) !)( 0.5 )4 ¿

¿ ( 15 ×0.0625 × 0.25 ) + ( 6 ×0.03125 × 0.5 ) + ( 1 ×0.01562 ×1 )

¿ 0.3437

EXPECTATION, VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF BINOMIAL

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

In general, if X is the number of successes in n trials, each with probability of success p, then the
expected value and variance of X are:
E ( X )=np

Var ( X)=np(1−p)

σ =√ npq

While it is not necessary in this course to be familiar with the derivations of these formulae, they
are included for completeness. First of all, consider the proof;
Example 6: The probability that a marksman hits a target is p = 1/4. She fires 100 times. What is
the expected number of times she will hit the target and the standard deviation?
Solution
1 1 3
It can be deduced that n=100 , p= ∧q=1− p=1− =
4 4 4
Expected Value (µ) :
μ=np
1
¿ 100 × =25
4
Variance (V):
V =npq
1 3
¿ 100 × ×
4 4
¿ 18.75
Standard Deviation(σ ) :
σ =√ npq

√ 1 3
¿ 100 × ×
4 3
¿ 4.33
EXERCISE

1) Suppose that the probability that an item produced by a certain machine will be defective is
0.1. Find the probability that a sample of 10 items will contain at most1 defective item.
Ans=0.7361

2) It is known that screws produced by a certain company will be defective with probability
0.01, independently of each other. The company sells the screws in packages of 10 and offers
a money-back guarantee that at most 1 of the 10 screws is defective. What proportion of
packages sold must the company replace?
Ans=0.004 , Thus , only 0 .4 percent of the packages will have ¿ be replaced .
Hint : If X is the number of defective screws∈a package , then X is a binomial random variable
with parameters ( 10 , 0.01 ) . Hence ,the probability that a package will have ¿ be replaced is
P( X> 1)=1−¿

3) Five fair coins are flipped. If the outcomes are assumed independent, find the probability
distribution function of the number of heads obtained.
 {
1
X=0 ,5
32
Ams= 5 X=1 , 4
32
10
X =2 ,3
32

Hint : B ( 5 , 0.5 )∧X =1 ,2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6