Time series designs

Time series designs are a subcategory of longitudinal research designs which feature analyses
on “large series of observations made on the same variable consecutively over time”.
What are the four 4 main components of a time series?
These four components are:
 Secular trend, which describe the movement along the term;
 Seasonal variations, which represent seasonal changes;
 Cyclical fluctuations, which correspond to periodical but not seasonal variations;
 Irregular variations, which are other nonrandom sources of variations of series.
 What is time series design in quasi-experimental design?
 A basic time-series design is a quasi-experimental research design in which a dependent
variable is measured at many different points in time in one group before and after a
treatment that is manipulated by the researcher is administered.

Time series analysis is a specific way of analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an
interval of time. In time series analysis, analysts record data points at consistent intervals over a
set period of time rather than just recording the data points intermittently or randomly. However,
this type of analysis is not merely the act of collecting data over time.
What sets time series data apart from other data is that the analysis can show how variables
change over time. In other words, time is a crucial variable because it shows how the data adjusts
over the course of the data points as well as the final results. It provides an additional source of
information and a set order of dependencies between the data.
Time series analysis typically requires a large number of data points to ensure consistency and
reliability. An extensive data set ensures you have a representative sample size and that analysis
can cut through noisy data. It also ensures that any trends or patterns discovered are not outliers
and can account for seasonal variance. Additionally, time series data can be used for forecasting
—predicting future data based on historical data.
Time Series Analysis Types
Because time series analysis includes many categories or variations of data, analysts sometimes
must make complex models. However, analysts can’t account for all variances, and they can’t
generalize a specific model to every sample. Models that are too complex or that try to do too
many things can lead to a lack of fit. Lack of fit or overfitting models lead to those models not
distinguishing between random error and true relationships, leaving analysis skewed and
forecasts incorrect.
Models of time series analysis include:
 Classification: Identifies and assigns categories to the data.
 Curve fitting: Plots the data along a curve to study the relationships of variables within
the data.
 Descriptive analysis: Identifies patterns in time series data, like trends, cycles, or
seasonal variation.
 Explanative analysis: Attempts to understand the data and the relationships within it, as
well as cause and effect.
 Exploratory analysis: Highlights the main characteristics of the time series data, usually
in a visual format.
 Forecasting: Predicts future data. This type is based on historical trends. It uses the
historical data as a model for future data, predicting scenarios that could happen along
future plot points.
 Intervention analysis: Studies how an event can change the data.
 Segmentation: Splits the data into segments to show the underlying properties of the
source information.
Data classification
Further, time series data can be classified into two main categories:
 Stock time series data means measuring attributes at a certain point in time, like a static
snapshot of the information as it was.
 Flow time series data means measuring the activity of the attributes over a certain
period, which is generally part of the total whole and makes up a portion of the results.
Data variations
In time series data, variations can occur sporadically throughout the data:
 Functional analysis can pick out the patterns and relationships within the data to
identify notable events.
 Trend analysis means determining consistent movement in a certain direction. There
are two types of trends: deterministic, where we can find the underlying cause, and
stochastic, which is random and unexplainable.
  Seasonal variation describes events that occur at specific and regular intervals during
the course of a year. Serial dependence occurs when data points close together in time
tend to be related.
Time series analysis and forecasting models must define the types of data relevant to answering
the business question. Once analysts have chosen the relevant data they want to analyze, they
choose what types of analysis and techniques are the best fit.
Important Considerations for Time Series Analysis
While time series data is data collected over time, there are different types of data that describe
how and when that time data was recorded. For example:
 Time series data is data that is recorded over consistent intervals of time.
 Cross-sectional data consists of several variables recorded at the same time.
 Pooled data is a combination of both time series data and cross-sectional data.
Time Series Analysis Models and Techniques
Just as there are many types and models, there are also a variety of methods to study data. Here
are the three most common.
 Box-Jenkins ARIMA models: These univariate models are used to better understand a
single time-dependent variable, such as temperature over time, and to predict future
data points of variables. These models work on the assumption that the data is
stationary. Analysts have to account for and remove as many differences and
seasonalities in past data points as they can. Thankfully, the ARIMA model includes
terms to account for moving averages, seasonal difference operators, and
autoregressive terms within the model.
 Box-Jenkins Multivariate Models: Multivariate models are used to analyze more than
one time-dependent variable, such as temperature and humidity, over time.
 Holt-Winters Method: The Holt-Winters method is an exponential smoothing
technique. It is designed to predict outcomes, provided that the data points include
seasonality.

Summary
Time series designs are a subcategory of longitudinal research designs which feature analyses
on “large series of observations made on the same variable consecutively over time”. While
time series designs could explore repeated observations from the same unit of analysis, such as
an individual's pattern of offending at each year across the life course, these studies are
impractical in criminology because of obvious challenges in data collection. Interrupted time
series are a unique version of the traditional quasi-experimental research design for program
evaluation. A major threat to internal validity for interrupted time series designs is history or
“the possibility that forces other than the treatment under investigation influenced the
dependent variable at the same time at which the intervention was introduced”. Other quasi-
experimental and randomized experimental research designs avoid this limitation because
treatment and control groups are observed across the same temporal period.

Conformity
Conformity is the polar opposite of social deviance, which is abiding by the rules that define
who is acceptable in a social situation, group, or certain community. Robert Merton (1957)
coined the term “conformity” to refer to the adoption of cultural objectives and the valid or
accepted ways of accomplishing them. Only conformance to both reveals non-deviance in his
framework of aims and means modifications.
Conformity is the process by which people adjust their views, attitudes, behaviours, or
perspectives to more closely resemble those held by organisations to which they join or aspire
to join or by parties whose acceptance they want. Conformity has significant societal
repercussions and is still being studied.

Conformity is generally motivated by a need for safety within a group, usually one of
comparable educational position, culture, age, or religion.
This is known as groupthink: a process of cognition marked by self-deception, coerced assent,
and obedience to group ideals and ethics while ignoring realistic assessments of alternative
courses of action. If you decline to comply, you may face social rejection. Youth and
adolescence cultures are generally connected with conformity, yet it impacts people of all ages.
Conformity is commonly or widely considered as either desirable or bad, despite the fact that
peer pressure can be harmful. Driving in the proper lane of the road may be considered good
conformity. Conforming in early infancy helps one to learn and so adopt the proper behaviours
essential to connect and progress “correctly” in one’s society with the right environmental
influence.
Conformity has an impact on the establishment and preservation of social standards, as well as
on the smooth and predictable functioning of societies through the self-elimination of actions
that are viewed as breaking unwritten rules. In this way, it might be seen as a positive factor that
deters perceptually disruptive or risky behaviour. Because conformity is a collective
phenomenon, elements including group size, unanimity, cohesiveness, status, past commitment,
and public opinion have a role in determining an individual’s level of conformity.
Obedience
Psychologists have typically defined obedience as a form of social influence elicited in response
to direct orders from an authority figure.
Obedience is a form of social influence that involves acting on the orders of an authority figure.
It often involves actions a person would not have taken unless they were directed to do so by
someone of authority or influence.
To understand obedience, it is important to also understand how it differs
from compliance and conformity. Compliance involves changing your behavior at the request of
another person, while conformity consists in altering your behavior to go along with the rest of
the group.
Obedience vs. Conformity: How They Differ
Obedience is an essential concept in psychology. The question of why people obey others, its
impact on society, and the factors that impact obedience are essential in understanding social
behavior and social influence. However, obedience must be distinguished from other types of
social influence, including conformity.
Obedience differs from conformity in three key ways:1
 Obedience involves an order; conformity involves a request.
 Obedience is obeying someone of a higher status; conformity is going along with
people of equal status.
 Obedience relies on social power; conformity relies on the need to be socially accepted.

What is deviance?

The act of deviating from group norms is known as deviance. It is a broad notion that
encompasses not just criminal conduct but also a wide range of non-criminal behaviours.
Deviance standards differ from one tribe to the next and across time.
However, a more objective examination is also required. Many behaviours can be conformed to
or deviated by a person. He or she may, for example, adhere to a collective ideal of integrity and
honesty. Is being a conformist a negative thing? Similarly, he or she may reject an organisation
whose ideals are based on robbery and corruption. This is most likely a beneficial deviation. As a
result, neither conformity nor deviation is desirable or harmful in and of themselves. The
prevalent perceptions are incorrect.
Social and cultural norms
Social and cultural norms are rules or expectations of behavior and thoughts based on shared
beliefs within a specific cultural or social group. While often unspoken, norms offer social
standards for appropriate and inappropriate behavior that govern what is (and is not)
acceptable in interactions among people. Social and cultural norms are highly influential over
individual behavior in a broad variety of contexts, including violence and its prevention,
because norms can create an environment that can either foster or mitigate violence and its
deleterious effects.
Why is it important to understand social and cultural norms?
It is important to understand that a lack of awareness can lead to bad or poor decision-making
and poor outcomes for persons that we are supposedly providing help. Cultural awareness
helps to reduce the chances of making bad decisions and increases the chance of us making
appropriate and acceptable decisions.

WHAT IS CULTURE? Culture is a shared pattern of beliefs, values, assumptions and behaviors
that distinguishes one group from another. Or more simply put, it’s the "way we do things
around here." Culture includes national and ethnic cultures but it also includes cultures
organized around one’s profession, age-group, gender, function, etc.
Cultural norms
Cultural norms are the standards we live by. They are the shared expectations and rules that
guide behavior of people within social groups. Cultural norms are learned and reinforced from
parents, friends, teachers and others while growing up in a society.
What are the 2 main norms of culture?
Norms are the formal and informal rules regarding what kinds of behavior are acceptable and
appropriate within a culture. Norms are specific to a culture, time period, and situation. Norms
are often divided into two types, formal norms and informal norms.

 Individualism. Emphasis on individual goals and individual rights

 Collectivism. Emphasis on group goals and personal relationships
 Low Power Distance Emphasis on equality; shared decision-making
 High Power Distance Emphasis on differences in status; superiors make decisions
 Low Uncertainty Avoidance Emphasis on flexibility and adaptability
 High Uncertainty Avoidance Emphasis on planning and predictability
 Cooperative Emphasis on collaboration, nurturing, and family
 Competitive Emphasis on competition, assertiveness, and achievement Short Term
Emphasis on immediate outcomes (success now)
 Long Term Emphasis on long term planning (success later)
 Low Context / Direct Emphasis on explicit communication (words) High Context /
Indirect Emphasis on indirect communication (tone, context)
 Being Emphasis on quality of life Doing Emphasis on being busy and meeting goals
 Universalism Emphasis on rules; standards that apply to everyone
 Particularism Emphasis on specifics; unique standards based on relationships
 Neutral Emphasis on non-emotional communication; hiding feelings
 Affective Emphasis on expressive communication; sharing feelings
 Monochromic Emphasis on one thing at a time; punctuality; work and personal life
separate Polychromic Emphasis on many obligations; comfortable with interruptions;
work and personal life combined
Social norms
Social norms are rules of behavior. They inform group members how to construe a given
situation, how to feel about it, and how to behave in it. They exert social influence on group
members by prescribing which reactions are appropriate, and which are not (Abrams,
Wetherell, Cochrane, Hogg, & Turner, 1990).