Reg.

No: DEC 2023 – MAY 2024

COIMBATORE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY: COIMBATORE-641 014.

(Government Aided Autonomous Institution)
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTING
17MDC81 – MODELING AND SIMULATION
2020Batch -VIII SEM M.Sc(DCS)
I Mid Semester Test

DATE : 05/02/2024 TIME:02:00PM-04:00PM TOTAL MARKS: 50

Q.No. PART A – ( 5 X 2 Marks = 10 Marks) MARKS CO RBT

1 Relate Modeling and Simulation. 2 CO1 U
2 State the two reasons that shows simulation is an 2 CO1 R
appropriate tool.
3 Define Discrete Random Variable with an example. 2 CO1 R
4 State the Memory Less Property of Exponential 2 CO1 R
distribution.
5 List any four simulation software. 2 CO2 R
PART B - ( 4 X 10 Marks = 40 Marks) MARKS CO RBT

6 (i) Discuss the steps involved in simulation study 7 CO1 U

with a neat flowchart.
(ii) List the disadvantages of Simulation. 3 CO1 R

(OR)

7 (i) Describe the concept of system with its 6 CO1 U

components.
(ii) Consider a die tossing experiment. Let X be 4 CO1 AN
the face of a die after throwing. Compute the
Mean and Variance.
8 Consider a clinic which has one nurse and a 10 CO2 AN
doctor. Service time of the nurse is 7 min.
Service time of the doctor is random. Arrival
time of the patient is random. The
distributions of the time between arrivals and
service time of the doctor is given below.
Time b/w Arrivals Probability
5 0.5
10 0.3
15 0.2

Doctor’s Service Probability

Time
4 0.3
8 0.5
12 0.2

Use simulation to determine the average time

 a patient spends in doctor’s clinic from the
arrival till leaving.
(OR)

9 Alex appliance sells the electric mixer. There 10 CO2 AN

are 25 units in the inventory. Each week
customer buys some units. Number of
customer and demand per customer is given
below.
No.of Customers Probability
0 0.1
1 0.3
2 0.25
3 0.2
4 0.15

Doctor’s Probability
Service
Time
1 0.1
2 0.15
3 0.4
4 0.35
The following policies are used by Alex.
If inventory < order, ie inventory <=10, at the
end of the week, then order 25 items and it
arrives at the beginning of 3rd week. If allen
runs out of stock, then he can put them on
backorder which costs Rs.5/Unit. Ordering
cost is Rs.45/Unit, Holding cost is Rs.
1/Unit. Determine the average weekly cost of
inventory.

10 (i) Write short note on uniform distribution. 4 CO1 U

(ii) The amount of time in minutes that a person must 6 CO1 AN

wait for a bus is uniformly distributed between 0
and 12 min.
 What is the probability that a person must
wait fewer than 10 min?
 On the average, how long a person must
wait? Find μ and σ.
Ninety percent of time, the time a person
must wait falls between what value?

(OR)
11 Explain the concept of Queuing System in detail. 10 CO2 U
 12 (i) .Explain Bernoullii distribution 4 CO1 U

(ii) If a coin is flipped 5 times, using binomial 6 CO1 AN

distribution find the probability of getting
 Exactly 2 heads
 Atleast 4 heads
 Atmost 2 heads
(OR)
13. Give brief introduction about the following CO1 U
simulation software.
 Flexsim 5

 Witness 5

R – Remembrance, U – Understanding, AP- Applying, A-Analyzing, E- Evaluating, C-Creating

************************
17MDC81 – Modeling and Simulation - Midsem 1 Key

1. Relate Modeling and Simulation.

It is the process of designing a model of a real system and conducting experiments with
this model for the purpose of either understanding the behaviour of the system or for
the operation of the system.
2. State the two reasons that shows simulation is an appropriate tool.
 Informational, organizational, and environmental changes can be simulated, and the
effect of these alterations on the model's behaviour can be observed.
 Simulation can be used as a pedagogical device to reinforce analytic solution
methodologies.
3. Discrete Random Variable - If a random variable can take only a finite number of distinct
values within an interval, then it must be discrete. Examples : Number of children in a
family
4. The exponential distribution is memoryless because the past has no bearing on its future
behavior. Every instant is like the beginning of a new random period, which has the same
distribution regardless of how much time has already elapsed. The exponential is the only
memoryless continuous random variable.
5. ProModel, QUEST, SIMUL8 ,WITNESS.

Part B
6. i)Steps involved in the simulation study.
Problem formulation
🠶 Clearly state the problem.
🠶 Every study should begin with a statement of the problem.
🠶 If the statement is provided by the policymakers, or those that have the
problem, the analyst must ensure that the problem being described is clearly
understood.
Setting of objectives and overall project plan
🠶 How we should approach the problem.
🠶 Setting the goal is the first step to be taken. We should never start a simulation
without having a purpose to be achieved.
🠶 The goal should be formulated clearly, highlighting the issues for which we
desire to get answers.
Model conceptualization
🠶 Establish a reasonable model.
🠶 The construction of a model of a system is probably as much art as science
🠶 It is best to start with a simple model and build towards greater complexity.
🠶 However, the model complexity need not exceed that required to accomplish
the purposes for which the model is intended
Data collection
🠶 Collect the data necessary to run the simulation (such as arrival rate, arrival
process, service discipline, service rate etc.).
Model translation
🠶 Convert the model into a programming language.
Verification
🠶 Verify the model by checking if the program works properly. Use common
sense.
 Validation
🠶 Check if the model is actually working as real system in case of existing
processes, or in case of processes not yet available we should see if it's behaving
as imagined.
Experimental design
🠶 How many runs? For how long? What kind of input variations?
Production runs and analysis
🠶 Actual running the simulation, collect and analyze the output.
🠶 For significant data collection, the model must remain running for a certain
period of time, thus it is possible to obtain more reliable results.
Repetition
🠶 Repeat the experiments if necessary.
Document and report
🠶 Document and report the results.
🠶 As a final step, the documentation should be prepared with the information
obtained from the simulation, describing in detail what should be done.
Implementation
🠶 The success of the implementation phase depends on how well the previous II
steps have been performed.
🠶 It is also contingent upon how thoroughly the analyst has involved the ultimate
model user during the entire simulation process.

ii) Disadvantages of Simulation:

 Model building requires special training.
 If two models are constructed by different competent individuals, they might
have similarities, but it is highly unlikely that they will be the same.
 Simulation results can be difficult to interpret Most simulation outputs are
essentially random variables (they are usually based on random inputs), so it can
be hard to distinguish whether an observation is a result of system
interrelationships. or of randomness.
7. i)System and the Components
System : A system is defined as a collection of group of objects that are joined together in
a regular interaction of independent towards the accomplishment of some purpose.
An example : Consider a Manufacturing system which manufactures vehicles. Each
Component is assembled on an assembly line by joining it with another component it
produce a vehicle.
Components of a system :
Entity : An object of interest in the system. Eg: Customer is an Entity in a Bank
 Attribute : Property of an Entity. Eg: Account No, Balance
Activity : Time period of specified length which causes a state change. Eg: Depositing or
Withdrawing amount
State : It is used to describe the system at any time. Eg: Number of customers waiting in a
line
Event : Instantaneous occurrence that might change the state of the system
Endogenous : It is used to describe activities and events occurring within a system,
Exogenous : It is used to describe activities and events in the environment that affect the
system. In the bank study, the arrival of a customer is an exogenous event.

ii) Consider a die tossing experiment. Let X be the number of spots on the face of a die after
throwing. Compute the Mean and Variance.

Mean E(X) = Σall i xi p(xi)

= 1(1/21) +2(2/21)+3(3/21)+4(4/21)+5(5/21)+6(6/21) = 9/21 = 4.33
Variance V[X] = E[(X2) – (E[X])2 ]
E[(X2) = 12 (1/21)2 + 22 (2/21)2+32 (3/21)2 + 42 (4/21)2 + 52 (5/21)2 + 62 (6/21)2
E[(X2) – (E[X])2 ] = 21 – (91/21) = 2.22

8. Avg. inter arrival time = 1 / = 0.5(5)+0.3(10)+0.2(15) = 8.5min

Arrival rate = 1/8.5 = 0.1176cust/min

Avg.service time of nurse 1/ μ = 7 min . Therefore μ – 1/7 cust/min= 60/7 cust/hr

Avg.service time of doctor = 1/ μ = (0.3)4 +(0.5)8 + (0.2)12 = 7.6 min ie μ = 1/7.6 cust/min

= 60/7.6 = 7.895 cust/hr

Avg time spent in a system = 84/5 = 16.8min

9. Number of customers (mapping) 0-9, 10-39, 40-64, 65-84, 85-99

Demand per customer (mapping) 0-9, 10-24, 25-64, 65-99

Week 1 – Total cost 18, Week2 – 51, Week3 -15, Week4 – 20, Week5 – 20

Avg. weekly cost = (18 +51+15+20+20)/5 = Rs. 24.8

10) i) Uniform Distribution

A uniform distribution is a distribution that has constant probability due to equally likely
occurring events. It is also known as rectangular distribution (continuous uniform
distribution). It has two parameters a and b: a = minimum and b = maximum.
Probability density function(pdf) is given by:
f(x) = 1/( b – a), a ≤ x ≤ b
 Mean(μ) : = (a + b)/2
Variance (σ2 ) : = (b – a)2 /12
Standard Deviation (σ) : sqrt( (b – a)2 /12)

ii) The amount of time in minutes that a person must wait for a bus is uniformly distributed
between 0 and 12 min.
 What is the probability that a person must wait fewer than 10 min?
a= 0, b=12 P(X<10) = (10 – 0)/12 = 10/12 = 5/6 = 0.833min

 On the average, how long a person must wait? Find μ and σ.

mean μ = (0 + 12)/2 = 6 , σ = sqrt[(12 – 0)2 / 12] = sqrt(12) = 3.464min

 Ninety percent of time, the time a person must wait falls between what value?
P(X<K) = K < 90% ie 0.90 = 0.90 * 12 = 10.8min

11. Queuing System

Queuing System is described by its calling population, nature of arrivals, service
mechanism, queuing discipline and its behaviour.
Characteristics of Queuing Systems
o The key elements of queuing systems are customers and servers.
o The term customer can refer to people, machines, trucks, airplanes etc . Anything
that arrive at a facility and requires service.
o The term server can refer to receptionist, repair personnel, runways in airport,
washing machines etc . Any resource that provides the requested service.
Elements of Queuing System
The calling population
 The population of potential customers, referred to as the calling population.
 It is assumed to be infinite, even though the number of potential customers is
actually finite.
 When the population of potential customers is large this assumption is not
harmful and actually can simplify the model.
System Capacity
 In many queuing systems there is a limit to the number of customers that may be
in the waiting line or system.
 An arriving customer who finds the system full does not enter but returns
immediately to the calling population.
The Arrival Process
 The arrival process for infinite population models is usually characterized in terms
of inter-arrival times of successive customers.
 Arrivals may occur at scheduled times or random times.
Queue Behaviour and Queue Discipline
 Queue behaviour refers to the actions of customers while in a queue waiting for
service to begin. In some situation, there is a possibility that incoming customers
 will balk, renege, or jockey.
Service Times and Service Mechanism
 The service times of successive arrivals are denoted by S1,S2,…S1,S2,….
 They may be constant or of random duration.

12. Bernoulli distribution

Bernoulli distribution is a discrete probability distribution, meaning it’s concerned
with discrete random variables. A discrete random variable is one that has a finite or
countable number of possible values—the number of heads you get when tossing three coins
at once, or the number of students in a class. Bernoulli distribution applies to events that
have one trial and two possible outcomes. These are known as Bernoulli trials.
Bernoulli distribution is a type of binomial distribution. We know that Bernoulli
distribution applies to events that have one trial (n = 1) and two possible outcomes—for
example, one coin flip (that’s the trial) and an outcome of either heads or tails. When we
have more than one trial—say, we flip a coin five times—binomial distribution gives the
discrete probability distribution of the number of “successes” in that sequence of
independent coin flips (or trials).

ii) Exponential Distribution

If a coin is flipped 5 times, using binomial distribution find the probability of getting
 Exactly 2 heads
P(X=2) = 5C2 P2 q 5-2 = 5/16
 Atleast 4 heads
P(X>=4) = P(X=4) + P(X=5)
P(X=4) = 5C4 P4 q 5-4 = 5/32
P(X=5) = 5C5 P5 q 5-5 = 1/32
P(X>=4) = 5/32 + 1/32 = 6/32 = 3/16
 Atmost 2 heads
P(X<=2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)
P(X=0) = 5C0 P0 q 5 = 1/32
P(X=1) = 5C1 P1 q 4 = 5/32
P(X=2) = 5C2 P2 q 3 = 10/32
P(X<=2) = 1/32 + 5/32 + 10/32 = 16/32 = 1/2
13. Give brief introduction about the following simulation software.
Flexsim

FlexSim is 3D simulation software that models, simulates, predicts, and visualizes

business systems in a variety of industries, including manufacturing, material handling,
healthcare, warehousing, mining, logistics, and more. It is both powerful and user-
friendly. Some key points about FlexSim are as follows:
 Simulation Modeling: FlexSim allows users to build dynamic computer models of
their systems. These models can represent various processes, workflows, and
interactions within a system.
 “What If” Scenarios: With FlexSim, you can test “what if” scenarios to understand
how changes or interventions might impact your system. This helps in making
informed decisions.
  Beyond Spreadsheets: Unlike static analysis using spreadsheets, FlexSim takes into
account time, space, variability, and complex relationships within your system. It
provides a more accurate and dynamic view.
 3D Visualization: FlexSim’s stunning 3D environment lets you visually observe and
validate what’s happening in your system. It’s a critical level of validation beyond
just numbers and data.
 Industry Applications: FlexSim is used across various industries,
including manufacturing, healthcare, material handling, supply
chain, warehousing, logistics, aerospace, and mining.

Witness:
Witness is a simulation tool for dynamic process simulation of manufacturing and business
processes in 2D or 3D models. With these models real processes can be emulated already
within the planning phase and used for experiments.
Special features

o Modular structure and building block design

o 3D visualisation (WITNESS VR)
Witness is manufactured by the British company Lanner. Contact us for more information
about Witness or to help you find the suitable software for your company and your project,
without any obligations and free of charge.

Multi-core Processing

WITNESS offers support for multi-core processing of model execution allowing users to run
parallel replications and experiments and deliver accurate results, insight clarity and outcome
certainty for stakeholders in a suitable timeframe. With open connectivity to common data
sources including files (Microsoft Excel, CSV, CAD, etc), databases and cloud services,
users can use live organisation data or ‘big data’ streams to drive model creation,
initialisation or experimentation.