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    3 3 Drought

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    The document discusses drought monitoring and forecasting using hydrological model outputs and indices. It introduces the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and how they can be calculated from model outputs and observations to identify drought conditions.

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    3 3 Drought

    Uploaded by

    kantha
    6 views13 pages
    The document discusses drought monitoring and forecasting using hydrological model outputs and indices. It introduces the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and how they can be calculated from model outputs and observations to identify drought conditions.

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    3_3_Drought

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    The document discusses drought monitoring and forecasting using hydrological model outputs and indices. It introduces the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and how they can be calculated from model outputs and observations to identify drought conditions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    6 views13 pages

    3 3 Drought

    Uploaded by

    kantha
    The document discusses drought monitoring and forecasting using hydrological model outputs and indices. It introduces the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and how they can be calculated from model outputs and observations to identify drought conditions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 13

    Drought

    University of Oklahoma/HyDROS
    Module 3.3
    Outline – Day 3

    DEM PRACTICE
    CALIBRATION PRACTICE
    DROUGHT
    • Drought observations
    • Using hydrological model
    outputs to monitor and forecast
    drought
    COBB CREEK EXAMPLE

    Module 3.3 / Drought -2-


    Drought

    The same tools that give us flood forecasts can also


    be used to monitor droughts

    Look at rainfall, soil moisture and streamflow for


    historical significance.
    Probability

    Droughts Floods

    0 100

    Soil Moisture (%)


    Module 3.3 / Drought -3-
    Standardized Precipitation Index

    Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)


    SPI = (Curr. Avg. Rain – Hist. Avg. Rain) / Hist. StdDev. Rain
    • Typically computed over 30-, 60-, 90-, 180-, 365-day periods
    • Could also be done seasonally (this may also produce the
    best results)

    We have started computing SPI using TRMM rainfall


    over Namibia

    Module 3.3 / Drought -4-


    Standardized Precipitation Index

    Loaded the TRMM monthly gridded precipitation data


    (known as 3B43) into a MySQL database for historical
    reference points

    TRMM daily data (created by summing together 3-hourly


    estimates from the 3B42 product) is loaded into MySQL for
    generating the real-time estimates of SPI

    Use MySQL triggers to compute 60-, 90-, 180- day averages


    when new data is inserted

    Use MySQL SELECT to compute SPI and a simple Perl


    script to write out the gridded data for display

    Module 3.3 / Drought -5-


    Standardized Precipitation Index

    SPI over southwestern Africa calculated for March 23rd, 2015 using TRMM data

    Module 3.3 / Drought -6-


    Standardized Precipitation Index

    Time series of SPI for Windhoek, Namibia from TRMM data


    Module 3.3 / Drought -7-
    Standardized Soil Moisture Index

    Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)


    SSI = (Curr. Avg. SoilMoist – Hist. Avg. SM) / Hist. StdDev SM
    Compute this from model soil moisture in a historical rerun

    Or in a few years you can try from NASA’s SMAP satellite

    Soil moisture percentiles might be more useful


    ((Curr. Avg. SM – Hist. Avg. SM) / Hist. Avg. SM) * 100.0

    Module 3.3 / Drought -8-


    Standardized Soil Mositure Index

    NOAA CPC Soil Moisture Percentiles

    Module 3.3 / Drought -9-


    Standardized Runoff Index

    Standardized Runoff Index (SRI)


    SRI = (Curr. Avg. Run. – Hist. Avg. Run.) / Hist. StdDev Run.
    • Noticing a trend?

    Compute this from historical rerun of hydrological


    model OR from your record of streamflow gauge data

    Module 3.3 / Drought - 10 -


    Standardized Runoff Index

    Example from NOAA CPC

    Module 3.3 / Drought - 11 -


    Summary

    SPI is rainfall driven only


    We do not need EF5 to compute it, only TRMM

    SSI & SRI use information from the hydrologic models


    In the future EF5 will be able to compute SSI and SRI for you

    Finally, it is possible to do seasonal forecasts of


    drought based on the U.S. Climate Forecast System
    (CFS) or European Centre rainfall forecasts

    Module 3.3 / Drought - 12 -


    Coming Up….

    The next module is


    Cobb Creek Example

    You can find it in your \EF5_training\presentations  


    directory

    Module 3.3 / Drought - 13 -

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