1

Las dos intervenciones

Tesorero Gerente
-170 Compra en
-50 50
-220
140
-80

Análisis de la nueva inversión

Inversion -70
Valor Actual de los
140
ingresos netos
VPN 70

La compañía debería explotar el Filón ella misma, en lugar de venderlo al Gerente

 7
$4,000,000

$750,000

Opción 1:
Equipo de reproducción

-5,000,000
9,500,000

Opción 2:
Lote

-5,000,000

Período A B B-A
0 -5,000,000 -5,000,000 0
1 750,000 0 -750,000
2 750,000 0 -750,000
3 750,000 0 -750,000
4 750,000 0 -750,000
5 4,750,000 9,500,000 4,750,000
TIR (B-A) 19.26%

VPN 30% -$2,096,006 -$2,441,374

$5,000,000

$4,000,000

$3,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%

-$1,000,000

-$2,000,000

-$3,000,000

-$4,000,000

-$5,000,000

A B

VPN A B
0% $2,750,000 $4,500,000
1% $2,445,936 $4,038,924
2% $2,158,018 $3,604,443
3% $1,885,216 $3,194,783
4% $1,626,575 $2,808,308
5% $1,381,212 $2,443,499
6% $1,148,306 $2,098,953
7% $927,093 $1,773,369
 8% $716,865 $1,465,540
9% $516,964 $1,174,348
10% $326,775 $898,753
11% $145,728 $637,788
12% -$26,710 $390,555
13% -$191,037 $156,219
14% -$347,715 -$65,998
15% -$497,177 -$276,821
16% -$639,828 -$476,926
17% -$776,046 -$666,944
18% -$906,185 -$847,462
19% -$1,030,576 -$1,019,031
20% -$1,149,531 -$1,182,163
21% -$1,263,339 -$1,337,339
22% -$1,372,273 -$1,485,007
23% -$1,476,590 -$1,625,588
24% -$1,576,531 -$1,759,476
25% -$1,672,320 -$1,887,040
26% -$1,764,171 -$2,008,625
27% -$1,852,282 -$2,124,555
28% -$1,936,842 -$2,235,136
29% -$2,018,028 -$2,340,653
30% -$2,096,006 -$2,441,374
31% -$2,170,934 -$2,537,552
32% -$2,242,959 -$2,629,424
33% -$2,312,221 -$2,717,213
34% -$2,378,851 -$2,801,130
35% -$2,442,975 -$2,881,372
36% -$2,504,710 -$2,958,125
37% -$2,564,166 -$3,031,566
38% -$2,621,449 -$3,101,860
39% -$2,676,659 -$3,169,163
40% -$2,729,889 -$3,233,623
41% -$2,781,229 -$3,295,378
42% -$2,830,762 -$3,354,561
43% -$2,878,569 -$3,411,294
44% -$2,924,726 -$3,465,697
45% -$2,969,304 -$3,517,879
46% -$3,012,371 -$3,567,946
47% -$3,053,993 -$3,615,997
48% -$3,094,230 -$3,662,127
49% -$3,133,141 -$3,706,423
50% -$3,170,782 -$3,748,971
51% -$3,207,205 -$3,789,851
52% -$3,242,460 -$3,829,138
53% -$3,276,596 -$3,866,905
54% -$3,309,657 -$3,903,219
55% -$3,341,686 -$3,938,145
56% -$3,372,726 -$3,971,746
57% -$3,402,814 -$4,004,078
58% -$3,431,989 -$4,035,198
59% -$3,460,286 -$4,065,158
60% -$3,487,740 -$4,094,009
61% -$3,514,381 -$4,121,798
62% -$3,540,242 -$4,148,571
63% -$3,565,352 -$4,174,370
64% -$3,589,740 -$4,199,236
65% -$3,613,431 -$4,223,210
66% -$3,636,453 -$4,246,327
67% -$3,658,828 -$4,268,623
68% -$3,680,582 -$4,290,133
69% -$3,701,737 -$4,310,888
70% -$3,722,313 -$4,330,919
71% -$3,742,332 -$4,350,255
72% -$3,761,814 -$4,368,924
73% -$3,780,777 -$4,386,954
74% -$3,799,240 -$4,404,369
75% -$3,817,219 -$4,421,194
76% -$3,834,732 -$4,437,451
 8

Opción 1:
Máquina nueva

$165,000 $30,000

Opción 2:
Continuar con la
máquina vieja
$37,500 $70,000

Opción 1 2
VA -165,000 -37,500
PAGO -30,000 -70,000
NPER 10 10
TASA 30%
VPN -$257,746 -$253,908

La mejor opción es continuar con la máquina vieja

 9
$1,300,000

Opción 1:
continuar con el
Carro viejo
$1,200,000 $120,000

$260,000

$1,900,000

Opción 2:
Comprar carro
nuevo
$100,000
$1,700,000

Opción 1 2
VA - 1,460,000 - 1,700,000
PAGO - 120,000 - 100,000
NPER 3 3
VF 1,300,000 1,900,000
TASA 20%
VPN -$960,463 -$811,111

La mejor opción es comprar el carro nuevo

TIRP

Período A B B-A
0 -2,200,000 -2,300,000 -100,000
1 750,000 300,000 -450,000
2 750,000 200,000 -550,000
3 750,000 100,000 -650,000
4 750,000 0 -750,000
5 4,750,000 9,500,000 4,750,000
TIR 41.37% 37.44% 28.20%
VPN 0.20 1,650,469 1,964,596

TIR Ponderada T.D. 20%

Calculo la diferencia entre los
Paso 1 -$100,000 $0
proyectos
Llevo a VF las diferencias a la
Paso 2 $248,832 $0
T.D.
Llevo los valores intermedios a VF a la T.D.

Periodo 1 $1,555,200 $622,080

Periodo 2 $1,296,000 $345,600

Paso 3
Periodo 3 $1,080,000 $144,000

Periodo 4 $900,000 $0

Total $9,581,200 $10,611,680

Sumo los VF de la inversión y
Paso 4 $9,830,032 $10,611,680
las diferencias
Paso 5 Calculo la TIR 33.71% 35.77%

$9,000,000

$8,000,000

$7,000,000

$6,000,000

$5,000,000

$4,000,000

$3,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0

-$1,000,000 0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11 13 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

A B
VPN A B
0% $5,550,000 $7,800,000
1% $5,395,882 $7,561,059
3% $4,819,789 $6,672,521
5% $4,302,287 $5,881,142
7% $3,836,283 $5,174,675
9% $3,415,663 $4,542,611
11% $3,035,143 $3,975,905
13% $2,690,142 $3,466,750
14% $2,376,678 $3,008,388
16% $2,091,282 $2,594,956
18% $1,830,921 $2,221,355
20% $1,592,940 $1,883,138
22% $1,375,006 $1,576,416
24% $1,175,069 $1,297,787
26% $991,318 $1,044,259
28% $822,154 $813,204
31% $666,158 $602,303
33% $522,073 $409,508
35% $388,781 $233,006
37% $265,284 $71,191
39% $150,692 -$77,367
41% $44,210 -$213,936
43% -$54,877 -$339,649
 BOLSA

Alternativa #1 Alternativa #2
Inversión: 100,000,000 Inversión: 100,000,000
Tasa Nominal: DTF+4% Tasa Nominal: DTF+4%
Plazo: 5 años Plazo: 5 años
Modalidad de pago: AV Modalidad de pago: AV
Amortizaciones: AV Amortizaciones: Al vencimiento
DTF:13.5% NATA TD: 13%

Tasa de interés que pagan los títulos

DTF 17.50%
Tasa Periódica Anticipada 4.38%
Tasa Periódica Vencida 4.58%
Tasa NATV 18.30%
Tasa EA #ADDIN?

Flujo de caja de 1
Período 0 1 2
Saldo inicial deuda 100,000,000 80,000,000
Amortización 20,000,000 20,000,000
Saldo final deuda 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000
Intereses #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Flujo de caja de A - 100,000,000 #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
VPN 13% #ADDIN?

Flujo de caja de B
Período 0 1 2
Intereses #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Amortización - -
Flujo de caja de B -
100,000,000 #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
VPN 13% #ADDIN?
#ADDIN?
Note que aunque las dos alternativas tienen la misma rentabilidad efectiva, el VPN de B es mejor que el de A
caja de 1
3 4 5
60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000
20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000
40,000,000 20,000,000 -
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?

caja de B
3 4 5
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
- - 100,000,000
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?

e B es mejor que el de A
 USD
Forma de cálculo 1 Forma de cálculo 2
Inversión: $1,000,000,000 Intereses Moneda dura
Tasa Nominal: 10.50% Devaluación
Plazo: 2 años Tasa
Modalidad de pago: SV
Amortizaciones: Al vencimiento
Dólar (hoy) $2,250
Devaluación: 10% EA

Devaluación semestral
Devaluación semestral #ADDIN?
Tasa NASV 10.500%
Periodica 5.3%

Inversión en US$
0 -$444,444
1 $23,333
2 $23,333
3 $23,333
4 $467,778

Flujo en pesos
Período Flujo en pesos TRM
0 -$1,000,000,000 $2,250
1 #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
2 #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
3 #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
4 #ADDIN? #ADDIN?

TIR semestral #ADDIN?

TIR EA #ADDIN?

Como la tasa de oportunidad es del 18% E. A., el inversionista debe comprar el título
#ADDIN?
10%
#ADDIN?
SOLVER

Valor Invertido VPN

CDT 1 8,908,118 2,844,332
CDT 2 171,965 45,996
CDT 3 10,859,393 788,120
CDT 4 7,325,330 852,520
CDT 5 1,593,603 316,923
CDT 6 8,586,294 2,702,758
CDT 7 6,789,713 1,500,505
CDT 8 6,618,906 1,830,858
CDT 9 14,730,171 2,677,144
CDT 10 14,732,527 432,722
CDT 11 8,912,821 2,174,945
CDT 12 13,514,913 3,944,712
CDT 13 12,380,802 1,383,528
CDT 14 9,557,524 2,678,715
CDT 15 13,356,365 305,474
CDT 16 907,342 84,255
CDT 17 1,576,681 271,832
CDT 18 12,859,123 2,175,372
CDT 19 6,790,766 796,785
CDT 20 3,185,201 709,657
CDT 21 7,708,856 1,172,421
CDT 22 2,520,822 569,158
CDT 23 6,756,373 1,878,041
CDT 24 13,775,770 3,063,897
CDT 25 2,069,223 256
CDT 26 12,769,423 3,313,550