Lec3 - HRM-SP 2024 - Presonnel Planning Part 1

ASU331
Human resources management

ByLaw 2018 Prepared by
Dr. M. Sobhy
Spring 2023
Lecture 3
Personnel Planning and
Recruiting (part 1)
Presented by
Dr. Mohamed Sobhy
[email protected]
After studying this chapter,
you should be able to:
1. Explain the main techniques used in employment
planning and forecasting.
2. List and discuss the main outside sources of
candidates.
3. Effectively recruit job candidates.
4. Name and describe the main internal sources of
candidates.
5. Develop a help wanted ad.
6. Explain how to recruit a more diverse workforce.
© 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 5–3
The Recruitment and Selection Process
1. Decide what positions you’ll have to fill through
personnel planning and forecasting.
2. Build a pool of candidates for these jobs by recruiting
internal or external candidates.
3. Have candidates complete application forms and
perhaps undergo an initial screening interview.
4. Use selection techniques like tests, background
investigations, and physical exams to identify viable
candidates.
5. Decide who to make an offer to, by having the
supervisor and perhaps others on the team interview
the candidates.
4
Steps in Recruitment and Selection Process
Planning and Forecasting
• Employment or personnel planning
o The process of deciding what positions the firm will have to fill,
and how to fill them.
• Succession planning
o The process of deciding how to fill the company’s most
important executive jobs.
• What to forecast?
o Overall personnel needs
o The supply of inside candidates
o The supply of outside candidates
6
Forecasting Personnel Needs
Traditional
Forecasting tools
Trend Ratio Scatter

analysis analysis plotting
Forecasting Personnel Needs
• Trend analysis
o The study of a firm’s past employment needs over a period of
years to predict future needs.
o For example, compute the number of employees at the end of

each of the last 5 years in each subgroup (like sales, production,
secretarial, and administrative) to identify trends.
o Trend analysis can provide an initial rough estimate of future

staffing needs.
o Trend analysis neglects important factors such as

productivity, retirements and changing skill needs.
8
• Ratio analysis
o A forecasting technique for determining future staff needs
by using ratios between a causal factor and the number of
employees needed.
o Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor

and staffing needs is constant.
o For example, suppose a salesperson traditionally generates

$500,000 in sales. If the sales revenue to salespeople ratio
remains the same, you would require six new salespeople
next year (each of whom produces an extra $500,000) to
produce a hoped-for extra $3 million in sales.
9
The Scatter Plot
• Scatter plot
o A graphical method used to help identify the
relationship between two variables.
10
The Scatter Plot
– For example, suppose a 500-bed hospital expects to expand to
1,200 beds over the next 5 years.
– The human resource director wants to forecast how many
registered nurses the hospital will need.
Size of Hospital Number of

(Number of Beds) Registered Nurses
200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
11
Determining the Relationship Between
Hospital Size and Number of Nurses
Figure 5–3
Drawbacks to traditional forecasting techniques
1. They focus on historical data, and assume that the firm’s
existing structure and activities will continue in the
future.
2. They generally do not consider the impact the
company’s strategic plans may have on future staffing
levels.
3. They tend to support compensation plans that reward
managers for managing ever-larger staffs, and will not
uncover managers who expand their staffs irrespective
of strategic needs.
4. They tend to support the nonproductive idea that
increases in staffs are inevitable.
13
Using Computers to Forecast Personnel
Requirements
• Computerized forecasts
o The use of software packages to determine the future staff needs
by:
1) Projecting (forecasting) sales, volume of production.
2) Creating metrics (measures) for direct labor hours required to
produce one unit of product.
3) Applying three sales projections—minimum, maximum, and
probable.
4) Forecasting staffing levels for direct labor and indirect staff.
- Computerized Human Resource Management Systems (HRMS),

like those offered by Willis Towers Watson, and Excel
spreadsheets are tools used by organizations to manage and
analyze workforce data.
14
Forecasting the Supply of
Inside Candidates
Forecasting The
supply of inside
Manual systems and Markov

Qualification inventories
replacement charts analysis
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 5–8

Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates
(Manual Systems and Replacement Charts)
➢ Personnel replacement charts
– Company records showing present performance and
promotability of inside candidates for the most
important positions.
➢ Position replacement card
– A card prepared for each position in a company to
show possible replacement candidates and their
qualifications.
5–5
Management
Replacement Chart
Showing Development
Needs of Future
Divisional Vice
President
Figure 5–4
Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates
➢ Qualifications inventories ‫جرد المؤهالت‬
– computerized records listing employees’ education,
career and development interests, languages,
special skills, and so on, to be used in selecting
inside candidates for promotion.
5–4
Forecasting the Supply of
Inside Candidates
MARKOV ANALYSIS
Employers also use a mathematical process known as Markov

analysis (or “transition analysis”) to forecast availability of internal
job candidates.
Markov analysis involves creating a matrix that shows the

probabilities that employees in the chain of feeder positions for a
key job (such as from junior engineer, to engineer,
to senior engineer, to engineering supervisor, to director of
engineering) will move from position to position and therefore be
available to fill the key position.
5–9
Finding Internal Candidates
Hiring-from-Within Tasks
Posting open Rehiring former Succession

job positions employees planning (HRIS)
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 5–18

Finding Internal Candidates
➢ Job posting for current employees
– Publicizing an open job to employees (often by
literally posting it on bulletin boards ‫)لوحات االعالنات‬
and listing its requirements.
➢ Rehiring former employees
– Advantages:
• They are known quantities.
• They know the firm and its culture.
– Disadvantages:
• They may have less-than positive attitudes.
• Rehiring may sent the wrong message to current
employees about how to get ahead.
5–3
Finding Internal Candidates (cont’d)
➢ Succession planning
– The process of ensuring a suitable supply of
successors for current and future senior or key
jobs.
➢ Succession planning steps:
– Identifying and analyzing key jobs.
– Creating and assessing candidates.
– Selecting those who will fill the key positions.
5–8
Effective Recruiting
• Advantages of centralizing recruitment
o Strengthens employment brand
o Ease in applying strategic principles
o Reduces duplication of HR activities
o Reduces the cost of new HR technologies
o Builds teams of HR experts
o Provides for better measurement of HR performance
15
Internal Sources of Candidates: Hiring from Within
• Advantages • Disadvantages
• Foreknowledge of • Failed applicants become
candidates’ strengths discontented
and weaknesses (disappointed)
• More accurate view of • Time wasted
candidate’s skills interviewing inside
• Candidates have a candidates who will not
stronger commitment to be considered
the company
• Increases employee
morale (spirits)
• Less training and
orientation required
Thank you
23

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ASU331

Human resources management

Trend Ratio Scatter

o For example, compute the number of employees at the end of

o Trend analysis can provide an initial rough estimate of future

o Trend analysis neglects important factors such as

o Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor

o For example, suppose a salesperson traditionally generates

Size of Hospital Number of

- Computerized Human Resource Management Systems (HRMS),

Manual systems and Markov

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 5–8

Employers also use a mathematical process known as Markov

Markov analysis involves creating a matrix that shows the

Posting open Rehiring former Succession

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 5–18

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