Water SA 47(2) 172–184 / Apr 2021 Research paper

https://doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i2.10913

Assessing the frequency of drought/flood severity in the Luvuvhu River catchment,

Limpopo Province, South Africa
SM Mazibuko1,2, G Mukwada2,4 and ME Moeletsi1, 3
1
Agricultural Research Council – Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Private Bag X79, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
2
Afromontane Research Unit, University of the Free State, Private Bag X13, Phuthaditjhaba, 9866, South Africa
3
Risks and Vulnerability Assessment Centre, University of Limpopo, Private Bag X1106, Sovenga 0727, South Africa
4
Department of Geography & W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation of the University of Montana, USA

CORRESPONDENCE
The Luvuvhu River catchment experiences rainfall variability with a high frequency of extremely dry and wet SM Mazibuko
conditions. Understanding the frequency of drought and floods in this catchment area is important to the
agriculture sector for managing the negative impacts of these natural hazards. This study was undertaken to EMAIL
investigate the frequency and severity of drought/floods and linkages with the El Niño Southern Oscillation [email protected]
(ENSO) phenomenon. Poor and resource-limited small-scale farmers in the Luvuvhu River catchment area
struggle to adjust due to decreasing crop yields and livestock mortality caused by drought and floods. DATES
Monthly rainfall data from 15 grid points (0.5° × 0.5°) was used to compute the Standardised Precipitation Received: 15 May 2020
Index (SPI) for the period between 1979 and 2016. The 3-month SPI was calculated for the December–January– Accepted: 17 April 2021
February (DJF) period. The second half of the agricultural season was selected because the influence of ENSO
KEYWORDS
is high during the late summer season (DJF) in the catchment. The SPI results indicate that the agricultural
Standardised Precipitation Index
seasons 1982/83, 1991/92 and 2015/16 were characterised by extreme drought. Conversely, the SPI values drought/flood frequency
also show that the wettest seasons were recorded in 1998/99 and 1999/00. The catchment experiences a high rainfall
frequency of moderate to severe drought in the north and north-eastern parts. Spatially, the occurrence of ENSO
moderate to severe dry conditions covers large areas in the north and south-western parts. Severe to extreme Oceanic Niño Index
wet conditions cover large areas in the north and south-eastern parts of the catchment. The SST index (Niño
3.4) shows a strong influence on rainfall variability in the catchment, resulting in either dry or wet conditions. COPYRIGHT
Therefore, this study recommends further research focusing on more climatic modes that influence rainfall © The Author(s)
variability, as well as further development of drought and flood forecasting to improve farmers’ adaptations Published under a Creative
Commons Attribution 4.0
options and reliability of weather forecasts used as a tool to manage crop production.
International Licence
(CC BY 4.0)
INTRODUCTION
The occurrence of drought and floods is common in the Luvuvhu River catchment (LRC), impacting
negatively on crop production and agricultural income as a result of reduced crop sales, harvest failure
and livestock mortality (Devereux, 2007; Mathivha et al., 2016). Rainfall variability can result in either
drought or floods and affects agricultural production in especially rain-fed farming areas (Afifi et al.,
2016; Kori et al., 2012; Murali and Afifi, 2014; Oseni and Masarirambi, 2011). Small-scale farmers
in the LRC rely mainly on rainfed farming and are therefore highly vulnerable to frequent droughts
and floods (Masupha and Moeletsi, 2018). Prolonged decreases in rainfall results in the occurrence
of drought. Conversely, the abundance of rainfall may result in soil saturation and eventually heavy
flooding (Muluneh et al., 2017). Therefore, there is a need to assess the frequency of drought and floods
in order to raise awareness on the areas that are vulnerable to these natural hazards.
By their nature, droughts and floods are destructive, resulting in devastating impacts on crop
production and livestock farming (Chhabra et al., 2016; Revilla-Romero et al., 2015). For instance,
across the whole of southern Africa small-scale farmers who have limited access to irrigation systems
struggle to maintain crop production during times of drought (Mkuhlani et al., 2019a; Ntombela et
al., 2017), while they incur considerable losses during floods due to destruction of crop fields and
increased livestock mortality after heavy rainfall (Newton et al., 2011; Serdeczny et al., 2017).
Rainfall in South Africa is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, resulting
in drought or floods (Odiyo et al., 2019; Tfwala et al., 2018). The ENSO phenomenon is the oscillation
between warm phases (El Niño characterised by abnormal warming of surface ocean waters of the central
and eastern Pacific) and a cold phase (referred to as La Niña characterised by abnormal cooling of the
ocean waters) in the same region (Ganguli and Reddy, 2013; Saunders et al., 2017). Considering studies
by Rapolaki et al. (2019), Crétat et al. (2019), Tfwala et al. (2018) and Manatsa et al. (2017), ENSO has
been identified as the main driver of rainfall variability in southern Africa, making it a key determinant
of drought and flood occurrence within this region. The relationship between ENSO and rainfall over
southern Africa has been proven to be strong, but there are some ambiguities which still need to be
clarified (Crétat et al., 2019). This is because the occurrence of below-average rainfall is not only associated
with ENSO, since there are other weather systems that influence rainfall variability (Rapolaki et al.,
2019). For example, rainfall variability in southern Africa is not always due to ENSO influence because
the ocean-atmosphere interaction is also influenced by the concurrent occurrence of other weather
systems (e.g. Southern Annular Mode) during either El Niño or La Niña phase (Manatsa et al., 2011).

ISSN (online) 1816-7950 172

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In this study we used the SPI due to the index’s simplicity because extreme weather events is important for development planners,
it uses only precipitation as input (Sobral et al., 2019). The SPI is water resource managers and government departments working
flexible, making it possible to assess both dry and wet conditions. in the LRC, because of its potential use for developing sound
The index is standardized, which allows meaningful comparisons adaptation measures and effective relief programmes in this area.
between locations of varying topography without bias (Cheval,
2015). The SPI can be computed at different time scales, from DATA ACQUISITION AND METHODS
1 to 24 months, which allows the assessment of hazards such as
Study area
drought at different time scales. The SPI has been recommended
by Guttman (1998), Ghaleb et al. (2015) and Othman et al. The LRC is located in the north-eastern part of the Limpopo Province
(2016) as the preferred index in drought and flood-related studies of South Africa. It is situated in the Vhembe District Municipality
because it is simple and spatially consistent in its interpretation (Fig. 1), and in the Limpopo River Basin, which is shared by four
and probabilistic nature. The SPI was selected for the study countries, namely, South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique and
due to the index’s ability to assess both dry and wet conditions Zimbabwe (Trambauer et al., 2014). Geographically, the LRC is
(Gebrehiwot et al., 2011; Rouault and Richard, 2003). The aim of located between longitudes 29.49°E and 31.23°E and latitudes 22.
the study was to assess the frequency and severity of drought and 17°S and 23.17°S. Topographically, two mountain ranges exist in the
floods in order to identify areas that are more prone to extreme catchment, the Drakensberg in the north and Soutpansberg in the
weather events in the LRC. The LRC is a resource-poor area with south-east (Jewitt and Garratt, 2004). Within the LRC, topography
high unemployment and poverty rates, and the livelihoods of the strongly influences rainfall patterns, with the mean annual
majority of its population are largely dependent on subsistence precipitation of 450 mm received in the lowlying plains (northern and
farming and remittances (Masupha et al., 2016). Therefore, the eastern parts) and more than 1 200 mm received in the mountainous
occurrence of droughts and floods poses a serious threat to food areas in the south-western parts of the catchment (Masupha et al.,
security and household livelihoods (Devereux, 2007). Generating 2016). Rainfall is largely seasonal and mostly occurs during summer
information about areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of these months, between October and April (Nkuna and Odiyo, 2016).

Figure 1. Location of the Luvuvhu River catchment area within the Limpopo Province and spatial variability of rainfall. Source: produced by the
author using CRU rainfall data

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Data quite common in developing countries (Mbiriri et al., 2018). In
contrast, even though the CRU TS data covers a long period, the
The SPI software was downloaded from the National Drought
data is not suitable for monitoring climate change trends at global
Mitigation Centre (NMDC) website (http//drought.unl.edu/M
level. However, the CRU TS data is suitable for regional and sub-
onitoringTools/DownloadableSPIProgram.aspx). The re-analysis
region analysis (Harris et al., 2020). The spatial resolution of 0.5° ×
rainfall data used in this study consists of gridded monthly
0.5° is high, but it could be sparse for analysing changes in rainfall
rainfall data and sea surface temperature (SST) data in the Niño
which changes over short distances. CRU re-analyses the data and
3.4 region, provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS4.01)
updates it often and this could induce errors in estimating the
and available online (https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi). The
climate data, though the errors have been reported as insignificant
gridded Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version
in many regions (Mbiriri et al., 2018).
4.01 data are month-by-month variations in climate produced
by CRU at the University of East Anglia in conjunction with the The latitude and longitude grid points covering the LRC for
World Meteorological Organization. The data that were used in which monthly rainfall data were downloaded (see Fig. 2).
this study covered a period of 37 years, from 1979 to 2016. The Station data were not used in this study due to inconsistencies in
CRU datasets provide a consistent record of month-by-month recording rainfall data and gaps in the data (Moeletsi et al., 2016).
variations in 9 climate variables: cloud cover, diurnal temperature Statistical analysis of the CRU grid data and weather station
range, frost day frequency, potential evapotranspiration (PET), data was conducted (see Appendix). The SPI values were used
precipitation, daily mean temperature, monthly average daily to identify seasons of drought and floods (Othman et al., 2016).
maximum and minimum temperature, and vapour pressure, for The occurrence of drought and floods was identified using the
the period January 1901 – December 2018. The CRU TS4.01 data classification method of McKee et al. (1993) as shown in Table 1.
is based on angular-distance weighting (ADW) interpolation. The The seasons with positive SPI values ≥ +2 are classified as wet
monthly gridded fields are based on monthly observational data season, which suggests possibilities of floods, while SPI values
calculated from daily or sub-daily data by National Meteorological ≤ -2 are identified as drought season (Shah et al., 2015; Nkuna
Services and other external agents (Goddard and Dilley, 2005). and Odiyo 2016).
The CRU data covers a long period of more than 50 years which
is enough to conduct climate change related analysis (Mbiriri Identification of dry and wet seasons
et al., 2018). The CRU data also contain climate and vegetation
Monthly rainfall data were used to compute the SPI values for
indices at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and this data is useful
each of the 15 grid points, which were then used to identify years
for analysing the impacts of natural hazards (e.g. drought) on
of drought and floods based on the method of McKee et al. (1993;
agriculture and food security (Kottek et al., 2006). The data
Table 1). Long-term rainfall data is the only input required to
provide historical and recent data records which are useful for
compute the SPI values. The program allows selection of the SPI
analysing recent climate anomalies. The CRU use meteorological
time scale required for a specific analysis (e.g. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 24
stations to produce monthly grid data, especially for remote areas
or 48 months). The short time scales (1–6 months) are related
which are sometimes impossible to obtain data for, a situation
to moisture deficit and are used in agricultural drought studies.
Therefore, the 3-month SPI time scale was selected for this study
(covering the sub season from December to February) because
of its suitability for assessing agricultural drought (Winkler et al.,
2017). The accumulated 3-month SPI values were used to identify
dry sub-seasons and wet sub-seasons within the time series for
the study period.

Mapping the frequency of drought and floods

The SPI classification by McKee (1993), shown in Table 1, was
used to classify the frequency of the different severity classes
of the SPI values. The SPI values indicating different severity
classes of dry and wet sub-seasons were used to map areas mostly
affected by extremely dry to extremely wet seasons (Table 1).
The spatial variation of the frequency of drought and floods
was mapped using ArcGIS software version 10.3. The inverse
distance weighting (IDW) analysis was used. The selection of
this interpolation method is largely influenced by the quality of
Figure 2. Grid-points from A to O at which gridded rainfall data were the output of the analysis. The interpolation of climate variables
downloaded for the period between 1979 and 2016
using IDW is also not influenced by changes in topography. The
mapping of the variability of SPI has been undertaken in studies
Table 1. Drought and flood classification scheme using SPI by Xia et al. (2018) and Bagheri (2016) to determine the spatial
(McKee et al., 1993) variability of the frequency of drought and floods in some regions
Dry and wet classes SPI of China (i.e., northeast China, Huang–Huai–Hai, Sichuan, South
China, Southwest China and Yangtze River) and also the Fras
Extreme dry SPI < −2.0
Province of Iran.
Severe dry −2.0 ≤ SPI < −1.5
Moderately dry −1.5 ≤ SPI < −1.0 Linking drought and flood events with the ENSO
Near normal −0.99 ≤ SPI < 0.99 phenomenon
Moderately wet 1.0 ≤ SPI < 1.5 Three-month SPI was also used to analyse the relationship
Very wet 1.5 ≤ SPI < 2.0 between SPI and SST index for the 15 grid points covering the
1979–2016 period. The correlation between SPI and Niño 3.4
Extremely wet 2.0 < SPI
index was conducted using Statistica software. The SST within the

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Niño 3.4 region was selected because of its strong linkages with 1991/92 and 2015/16 years recorded extreme drought events, with
the weather experienced in the southern African region (Goddard serious negative impacts on agricultural production. The 2015/16
and Dilley, 2005). Therefore, the relationship between 3-month drought affected the Limpopo Province, one of the major maize
SPI and Niño 3.4 was used to assess the influence of ENSO on and fruit producing and exporting provinces in South Africa.
rainfall variability in the LRC. The December–January–February Therefore, food security becomes a concern in the country because
(DJF) season was used for the correlation analysis between SPI maize is a staple food and plays an important role in sustaining
and Niño 3.4, because the ENSO influence on rainfall variability the livelihoods of the majority of the people in the country. The
is high in the middle of the summer season (DJF) and this could LRC is a resource-poor and under-developed area, characterised
affect agricultural activities in the catchment. The period from by high rates of unemployment and poverty (Masupha et al.,
November–December is recommended for planting by Masupha 2016). Yet, communities within this catchment rely on agriculture
and Moeletsi (2017) in the LRC, therefore understanding the for survival, since the occurrence of drought not only affects their
influence of ENSO on increasing the frequency of dry and wet access to food, but also their household incomes. In the LRC,
periods in the DJF season is important; farmers need to adjust agriculture is mostly rain-fed, which exposes it to the impacts of
planting dates to minimise the impacts of these events. The rainfall variability.
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was also used to identify ENSO phases
Thus, drought threatens agricultural production in the catchment
in during the study period. The ONI threshold of −0.5 (+0.5) SST
and requires the dissemination of early warning information to
values was used to identify El Niño and La Niña phases. The
alert farmers and advise them on how to lower risks associated
threshold was further broken down into weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9
with high crop failure and high livestock mortality. Though the
SST anomaly), moderate (1.0 to 1.4), strong (1.5 to 1.9) and very
South African Government has developed response programmes
strong (≥ 2.0) events for El Niño, and the vice opposite used to
to deal with the impacts of drought, government relief
indicate La Niña events (Kemarau and Eboy, 2021). The ONI
programmes are usually not implemented in time and are often
represents a 3-month average of the SST compared to the long-
insufficient, hence the strategies seeking to address the challenges
term average of 30 years (Archer et al., 2017).
faced by farmers are developed during the time of a natural hazard
and are not long-term solutions (Bahta et al., 2016). Moreover,
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
studies by Mkuhlani et al. (2019a) have revealed that farmers in
Drought/flood sub-seasons in LRC between 1979 and 2016 the Limpopo and Eastern Cape Provinces prefer to use irrigation
as a strategy for coping with the high frequency of dry spells in
Rainfall records in the study area were used to compute
these provinces. However, irrigation is expensive, especially for
accumulated 3-month SPI. The 3-month SPI values indicated that
communal farmers because they plant small areas, and the input
the 1979/80, 1982/83, 1983/84, 1984/85, 1991/92, 1994/95, 1997/98,
and maintenance costs of operating irrigation schemes are too
2000/01, 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2015/16 agricultural seasons were
high for them to afford. There are less expensive strategies that
all impacted by drought (Fig. 3). The frequency of drought was
crop farmers could adopt, including shifting planting dates in line
more rapid, occurring once every two seasons until 1984/85; from
with onset of rainfall and length of the rainy season, intercropping,
then there was a 5-year gap until the next drought in 1991/92. After
mulching, water harvesting and reduction of cropping area
the 1991/92 sub-season, the dry conditions that prevailed in the
(Masupha and Moeletsi, 2017; Mkuhlani et al., 2019b; Rankoana,
LRC continued to occur once after two seasons; thus the frequency
2016; Mukwada et al., 2020).
of drought decreased in the catchment. Moreover, drought events
continued to follow a similar pattern, occurring once every two The results from the analysis of 3-month SPI values indicate that
years until 2003/04, except for the 2015/16 season, when drought the agricultural seasons for 1980/81, 1984/85, 1987/88, 1998/99,
occurred after about 10 years. The frequency of drought was also 1999/00, 2008/09, 2010/11 and 2013/14 were characterised by
analysed by splitting the frequency of the SPI time series into two extremely wet conditions at nearly all of the sampled grid points
portions, 1979–1996 and 1997–2016. Extremely dry conditions (Fig. 3). The 1999/00 extremely wet sub-season was also identified
were recorded with a frequency of 4.6 in the first portion of the by Nkuna and Odiyo (2016) in the LRC. However, findings from
time series and 3.8 in the second portion, indicating a decrease in research by Kundu et al. (2014) indicate that the highest river
the frequency of extreme drought events. A similar pattern in the discharge in the LRC was recorded during 1976/77, which was
frequency of drought in the LRC was also identified by Masupha as a result of an above-average wet season. As shown in Fig. 3,
and Moeletsi (2017); however, the occurrence of extreme drought high SPI values were also recorded during the 2010/11 season
in the catchment is changing. The results showed that 1982/83 with some grid points recording extremely wet conditions. This
and 2015/16 were the driest sub-seasons, characterised by SPI concurs with the findings of Musyoki et al. (2016), who reported
values ≤ −2 at all grid points. The 2015/16 drought was also the occurrence of floods in the Thulamela Local Municipality
identified by Archer et al. (2017) to be the most severe drought in (a municipality located in the LRC) during the same season.
southern Africa. It was preceded by a low rainfall season (2014/15), Extremely wet conditions were recorded at a frequency of 2.9
suggesting that dry conditions could escalate to the next season in the first portion of the data and 4.3 in the second portion.
resulting in worse agricultural potential. The sub-seasons which Kundu et al. (2014) also indicated that the LRC is experiencing
experienced severe drought were recorded in 1986/87, 2000/01, a high frequency of extremely wet conditions resulting in floods.
2003/04 and 2004/05, with SPI values ≤ −1.5 for most data points. However, the late 1980s and most of the 1990s showed no signs of
The occurrence of extreme to severe drought in the catchment had extremely wet conditions. It is worth mentioning that during the
an effect on agricultural production. A similar analysis of drought study period (1979 to 2016), high SPI values (≥ 2) were recorded
using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index revealed 8 times and most of these occurred more frequently in the recent
that maize yields were affected by drought once every two seasons past. The analysis of SPI values further shows that severely wet
(Masupha and Moeletsi, 2017). conditions occurred less frequently, with some data points
showing no positive SPI values ≥ +1.5.
The occurrence of drought coupled with high temperatures
and late rainfall onset often forces farmers to reduce the size of The 1998/99 and 1999/00 seasons were characterised by extreme
the area planted, therefore resulting in low yields. For instance, wet conditions, with devastating impacts on agricultural
Archer et al. (2017) reported that during the 2015/16 drought, production. The response strategies developed by the South
maize production in South Africa decreased by 40%. The 1982/83, African Government departments aiming to address droughts/

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floods have not been proactive or region-specific, and the and Thielen, 2015). Excessive rainfall is regarded as the main
distribution of relief measures after the occurrence of natural parameter that causes floods and understanding the frequency
hazards is delayed due to limited resources (Mthembu and Zwane, and climatology of such extreme rainfall events is key in
2017). Under such circumstances, developing long-term strategies developing measures towards improving coping strategies in
to cope with the impact of floods is important, especially for any region (Musyoki et al., 2016). Therefore, improving the
subsistence farmers who find it difficult to cope with impacts of knowledge of weather systems (tropical lows and cut-off lows)
flood events. Development of early warning systems that could that influence rainfall patterns could help farmers to cope with
notify farmers about possible floods before planting could be a the effects of extreme rainfall events (Singo et al., 2016). Previous
vital source of valuable information for disaster managers because research has revealed that farmers rely on different sources of
it enables them to plan timeous relief measures (Doswell III, weather information, such as agricultural extension officers,
2003). The development of early warning systems could also help television or radio, newspapers, friends and cellphones, but poor
farmers to set up dykes, establish displacement camps for livestock understanding of the weather information and inaccurate weather
and apply for relief assistance in time (Bakibinga-Ibembe et al., forecasts decrease the reliability of forecasts, resulting in farmers
2011). This would lessen the impacts of production loss caused by being exposed to flood impacts (Armah et al., 2010). Improving
floods and the cost of rehabilitating the agricultural land affected.
the models used to predict the occurrence of extreme weather
Communities that are located in or near floodplains or cultivated events is critical for enhancing the reliability and use of weather
land in flat open areas are vulnerable to flood impacts (Alfieri information in coping with erratic rainfall (Loks et al., 2015).

Figure 3. Temporal patterns of 3-month SPI (DJF) from 15 grid points which cover the Luvuvhu River catchment area from 1979 to 2016

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Figure 3 continued. Temporal patterns of 3-month SPI (DJF) from 15 grid points which cover the Luvuvhu River catchment area from 1979 to 2016

Frequency of droughts and floods in the LRC the northern parts, due to the higher occurrence of orographic
rainfall in its mountains. Generally, rainfall within the LRC area
The frequency of dry and wet seasons was mapped using 3-month
is influenced by elevation, though drought can occur in both low
SPI values for the 15 grid points covering the LRC (Fig. 4). The
and high rainfall areas (Odiyo et al., 2015).
SPI results show that the south-western tip of the catchment, a
relatively small area, experiences a high frequency of extreme The spatial variation of the SPI results reveals that the north-
drought (>25%). The frequency of moderate to severe drought western parts of the catchment experience a high frequency of
increases from the south towards the north, with a large portion severely to extremely wet conditions. The positive SPI results
of the catchment affected by severe drought conditions, skewed further show that severely wet and extremely wet conditions
towards the north-eastern parts of the catchment. Generally, the dominated the northern and south-eastern parts (>25%) as
lack of rainfall for a period of time (days or months) increases shown in Fig. 4. The frequency of extremely wet conditions
the severity of drought, therefore in the LRC severity of drought decreases towards the southern parts, to a value of <5%. The
usually starts as moderately dry conditions and escalates to occurrence of extremely wet conditions affects communities
extreme conditions as the dry conditions continue for a longer in both steeply inclined and flat areas, as indicated by Musyoki
period. The frequency of severe drought was low towards et al. (2016). High run-off on steep slopes removes the fertile
the south-western parts of the LRC, with <5% frequency of topsoil and deposits it in low-lying areas and riverbanks, which
occurrence. This area suffered less severe drought compared to influences the establishment of farming activities on riverbanks

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(Kundu et al., 2014; Webster et al., 2014), while impeding surface experiences high rainfall variability which affects agricultural
flow and enhancing flooding. After heavy rainfall, the overflow of production in terms of crop production and availability of pasture
rivers destroys crops and livestock (Armah et al., 2010). During for livestock. Planting cultivars that mature in a short period
the wet season, crops planted near riverbanks could be subjected (3 months) towards the late summer could help farmers avoid
to waterlogging and flooding. replanting due to crop failure or poor germination (Mkuhlani et
al., 2019b). It is important that disaster management and relief
Severe drought conditions are common in the north-eastern
officers target the north-eastern part of the catchment when
part of the LRC where rainfall fall is low (Masupha and Moeletsi,
developing region-specific strategies, since these are the most
2017). However, the north-eastern part also experiences excessive
hazard-prone areas.
rainfall which is associated with floods. Therefore, the LRC

Figure 4. Frequency of 3-month SPI showing the frequency of drought/flood severity in the Luvuvhu River catchment area during the period
1979 to 2016

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 Niño (La Niña) and the values 0.5°C and −0.5°C represent the
neutral phase (Archer et al., 2017; Barbieri et al., 2019; Zhao et
al., 2020). The results of this study are in line with the finding by
Nkuna and Odiyo (2016) that high temperatures are associated
with low rainfall and vice versa, and this negative correlation can
be linked to the ENSO influence. The frequent occurrence of high
temperatures and low rainfall could expose crops and livestock
to unfavourable conditions, as stated by Newton et al. (2011),
who reported that maize is found to be sensitive to temperatures
above 30°C which decrease crop yield by 1% for every day
with temperatures above that threshold. Generally, drought
reduces water availability and grazing for livestock, which also
affects milk and meat production (Mthembu and Zwane, 2017).
Figure 5. The Oceanic Niño index (ONI) used to identify El Niño and La
Niña phases during the DJF period
High temperatures during El Niño events increase the rate of
evaporation, which exacerbates the water crisis. Conversely, low
temperatures, which are associated with the occurrence of high
Occurrence of El Niño and La Niña phases in the LRC rainfall, could also have negative impacts on the agriculture
The ONI was used to identify warm (cold) trends associated with El sector. Excessive rainfall on agricultural land destroys crops with
Niño (La Niña) events using SST values in the Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 5). shallow roots (i.e. maize) and thus reduces agricultural yields. The
The ONI varied between the SST threshold (i.e. 1.5–1.9°C), and 2015/16 season was strongly linked to the ENSO influence in the
denoted strong El Niño events in 1982/83, 1991/92, 1997/98, and Eastern Cape Province, with the forecast correctly predicting the
2015/16. Moreover, moderate (1.0–1.4°C) El Niño events were iden- occurrence of low rainfall. Studies done in the Free State Province
tified in 1985/86, 2002/03 and 2009/10. Generally, the warm phase of also depicted the association between ENSO and rainfall as well as
ENSO is characterised by low rainfall and high temperatures, while between ENSO and maize yields (Moeletsi et al., 2011).
the cold phase is associated with high rainfall and cool conditions
Farmers are aware of the drastic changes in rainfall, as stated by
(Propastin et al., 2010). Strong La Niña events were recorded in
Mkuhlani et al. (2019a), but those in the LRC could experience
1998/99, 1999/00, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2010/11 and these seasons were
challenges in accessing platforms that are used to disseminate
also identified by Nkuna and Odiyo (2016) as a period with excessive
weather forecasts (TV and smart phones). Moreover, access to
rainfall in the LRC. The results reveal that SST influences rainfall var-
financial resources for farmers is also a challenge and those that
iability in the catchment; therefore ENSO indices that are based on
have off-farm income do not invest in new farming methods which
SST are suitable for drought and flood analysis.
involve using irrigation systems and chemical fertilizers (Mkuhlani
et al., 2019a; Odhiambo and Magandini, 2008). Furthermore,
Influence of ENSO on rainfall variability
farmers receiving off-farm income prefer to buy food to sustain
The relationship between SPI and ENSO index (Niño 3.4) indicates the livelihoods of their families during times of ENSO-enforced
a strong negative correlation with a correlation coefficient (r) of hazards, instead of trying to adopt new farming methods (Armah
above −0.90 for all the grid points (Fig. 6). The results are also et al., 2010). Small-scale farmers are vulnerable to drought and
statistically significant (p < 0.05). The results also show that rainfall floods. In order to adapt to the changing climate, most farmers
variability in the LRC is highly influenced by ENSO, resulting rely on agricultural extension officers to provide weather-related
in either the El Niño, neutral or La Niña phase. The negative information, fertiliser and pesticide applications. Improving the
(positive) SST values indicate high (low) rainfall associated with knowledge and skills of extension officers to understand and
droughts and floods in the catchment. Generally, if the average interpret scientific information in the local language could be a
Niño 3.4 index is above (below) 0.5°C (−0.5°C) this indicates El useful strategy to address the impacts of drought and floods.

Figure 6. Statistical analysis of the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) index (Niño 3.4) and standardised precipitation index
(SPI) from grid points (A – O)

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Figure 6 continued. Statistical analysis of the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) index (Niño 3.4) and standardised precipitation
index (SPI) from grid points (A – O)

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CONCLUSION BAHTA YT, JORDAAN A and MUYAMBO F (2016) Communal
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APPENDIX

Figure A1. Validation of grid rainfall data using weather station data

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