Markov Model
Markov Model
Markov Model
Cols
d 128 Begin 6 2 Select Range
End 38 6
Last column must to the total
# 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1980 15292 3182 17695 2551 38720
1981 15946 3376 18737 2444 40503
1982 16185 2936 19347 2223 40691
1983 16764 3533 19392 2260 41949 MODEL:
1984 16275 3021 20394 2455 42145
1985 16180 2765 20418 2502 41865
1986 16495 2677 20822 2575 42569
1987 15746 2523 21796 2827 42892
1988 17102 2996 23214 2836 46148
1989 17124 2941 23886 2751 46702
1990 17453 2944 24694 2932 48023
1991 17791 2991 26037 3048 49867
1992 17457 2854 26383 3599 50293
1993 17636 2828 27060 3816 51340
1994 17280 3276 28912 3533 53001
1995 17120 3118 29697 3467 53402
1996 17109 2821 31795 3388 55113
1997 17388 2593 32090 3102 55173
1998 17305 2792 33988 3326 57411
1999 17035 2535 34623 2915 57108
2000 15961 2449 33796 2880 55086
2001 15239 2179 34906 4347 56671
2002 14069 1802 34250 3657 53778
2003 14660 1908 35780 4281 56629
2004 14902 1727 34785 7453 58867
2005 15475 2034 35372 7314 60195
2006 17027 2078 37641 5999 62745
2007 16748 1973 38400 6107 63228
2008 16881 1981 38795 6020 63677
2009 14978 1587 39042 7008 62615
2010 15667 2004 39060 6867 63598
2011 16017 1937 40187 7123 65264
2012 15628 1948 41261 7466 66303
Export trend of Avocodoes from Kenya to different countries
1974-87
Marcov Chain
Countries France Netherlands UK Germany Belgium Others
France 0.49197 0 0.42966 0 0 0.07837
Netherland 0 0.76249 0 0 0.09206 0.14546
UK 0.28210 0 0.46484 0.18519 0 0.06787
Germany 0.23131 0 0.21510 0.52314 0.03045 0
Belgium 0 0.33476 0 0.50643 0.05111 0.10771
Others 0.45459 0.06528 0.07418 0.25931 0.03089 0.11575
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year France Netherlands UK Germany Belgium Others Total
1974 2.75 0.03 5.27 0.64 0.04 1.53 10.27
1975 3.70 0.04 6.85 4.12 0.11 0.43 15.24
1976 5.34 0.05 9.74 4.81 0.17 0.32 20.42
1977 8.39 0.04 9.65 6.10 0.24 1.45 25.86
1978 16.41 0.05 16.52 8.73 0.41 0.90 43.02
1979 12.24 0.03 17.92 7.26 0.30 9.71 47.46
1980 14.74 0.63 13.14 7.28 0.74 2.76 39.29
1981 30.22 0.12 14.66 8.66 1.76 9.62 65.04
1982 26.31 1.36 26.24 11.02 0.44 2.05 67.41
1983 26.47 4.96 35.34 4.71 0.27 3.15 74.90
1984 33.38 5.34 38.01 11.02 0.93 9.31 98.00
1985 29.19 5.16 32.02 17.69 1.02 8.07 93.14
1986 52.56 13.56 51.16 38.71 6.23 9.84 172.06
1987 44.73 13.43 51.60 34.28 5.59 10.58 160.22
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year France Netherlands UK Germany Belgium Others
1974 3.68 0.14 3.89 1.73 0.07 0.76
1975 4.90 0.09 5.69 3.59 0.15 0.82
1976 6.63 0.12 7.88 4.49 0.17 1.14
1977 8.92 0.20 9.51 5.47 0.25 1.51
1978 15.16 0.23 16.68 8.07 0.32 2.56
1979 17.17 0.76 15.87 9.78 0.54 3.34
1980 13.90 0.91 14.21 7.33 0.40 2.54
1981 25.38 1.31 22.38 10.63 0.66 4.68
1982 23.82 1.32 26.02 11.38 0.55 4.32
1983 25.51 4.08 29.05 9.96 0.71 5.59
1984 33.93 5.00 35.07 15.69 1.16 7.15
1985 31.15 4.80 31.83 17.79 1.31 6.25
1986 53.72 13.07 55.42 35.43 3.05 11.37
1987 49.30 12.80 51.37 33.06 2.89 10.79
Others include Switzerland
Export trend of Avocodoes from Kenya to different countries
1988-97
Marcov Chain
Countries France Netherlands UK Germany Belgium Others
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year France Netherlands UK Germany Belgium Others Total
1988 151.87 36.43 90.86 66.04 13.51 16.62 375.32
1989 181.49 22.19 105.33 98.87 3.62 35.41 446.90
1990 214.32 15.11 148.75 86.17 9.80 22.45 496.61
1991 339.82 33.89 112.39 104.38 2.10 36.39 628.95
1992 1174.03 114.06 119.24 102.71 56.44 74.13 1640.60
1993 956.64 328.98 133.95 153.87 32.62 329.89 1935.96
1994 1172.09 270.74 394.00 297.64 45.36 132.35 2312.18
1995 1606.98 1098.08 303.05 297.23 52.73 585.71 3943.77
1996 1837.31 96.55 126.70 200.56 55.02 1855.64 4171.78
1997 1963.31 1377.76 90.44 199.31 60.14 459.87 4150.83
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year France Netherlands UK Germany Belgium Others
1988 180.48 19.76 64.27 61.09 6.42 43.30
1989 214.64 33.76 77.05 77.55 8.81 35.10
1990 260.77 27.23 88.77 82.45 8.62 28.77
1991 352.76 43.69 80.71 85.23 12.03 54.53
1992 1073.51 117.29 113.52 130.43 27.73 178.13
1993 970.94 271.44 126.14 144.22 29.02 394.21
1994 1238.33 155.17 275.85 278.68 38.59 325.56
1995 1736.86 476.55 251.54 276.15 52.05 1150.62
1996 1973.26 1318.79 156.68 200.15 60.49 462.40
1997 1936.71 415.35 147.79 197.86 52.94 1400.18
Others include Switzerland
Export trend of Cut flowers from Kenya to different countries
1974-86
Marcov Chain
Netherlan Netherlan Switzerlan
UK France Others
d ds d
UK 0.37045 0.62955 0 0 0 0
Germany 0.04419 0.92210 0.00909 0 0.01886 0.00576
Netherlands 0 0 0.98722 0 0.00149 0.01129
France 0 0.22927 0 0.77073 0 0
Switzerland 0 0 0.32154 0 0.52595 0.15252
Others 0.34198 0 0 0.09142 0 0.56661
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK Germany Netherlands France Switzerland Others Total
1974 28.37 278.10 10.10 8.42 0.28 7.89 333.16
1975 38.12 333.26 9.68 10.15 0.48 7.45 399.12
1976 45.95 437.37 14.81 17.88 0.27 6.94 523.22
1977 39.65 512.82 21.96 4.36 24.56 11.61 614.96
1978 35.55 611.04 21.95 5.20 28.72 15.81 718.27
1979 44.54 884.38 34.69 2.31 31.37 8.63 1005.92
1980 57.29 794.93 76.44 9.20 31.18 15.87 984.92
1981 43.44 810.51 136.87 0.83 33.37 10.09 1035.10
1982 63.57 760.89 231.63 1.25 35.87 29.78 1122.98
1983 101.55 784.19 422.64 20.70 51.04 78.38 1458.51
1984 120.34 1001.24 427.88 46.78 63.81 80.07 1740.12
1985 122.93 1086.87 671.40 54.93 58.70 97.89 2092.72
1986 150.55 1050.73 1065.07 58.33 62.00 92.79 2479.47
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK Germany Netherlands France Switzerland Others
1974 25.49 276.23 12.59 7.21 5.41 6.23
1975 31.39 333.62 12.74 8.50 6.55 6.32
1976 38.72 436.32 18.68 14.42 8.41 6.66
1977 41.32 498.84 34.24 4.42 22.62 13.52
1978 45.58 587.01 36.46 5.45 26.66 17.11
1979 58.53 844.06 52.38 2.57 33.23 15.16
1980 61.78 771.18 92.72 8.54 31.51 19.19
1981 55.35 774.91 153.22 1.56 33.04 17.02
1982 67.35 741.92 247.12 3.69 33.56 29.34
1983 99.07 791.78 440.79 23.12 42.27 61.48
1984 116.20 1009.73 452.04 43.38 53.08 65.69
1985 127.04 1092.19 691.58 51.29 52.37 78.26
1986 133.93 1077.04 1080.95 53.44 54.01 80.11
Export trend of Cut flowers from Kenya to different countries
1987-97
Marcov Chain
Netherlan Netherlan Switzerlan
UK France Others
d ds d
UK 0.79673 0 0 0 0 0.20327
Germany 0 0.85183 0.11022 0.02344 0.01451 0
Netherlands 0.02759 0 0.94993 0.00309 0.01236 0.00703
France 0 1 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 0 0.23069 0 0 0.51188 0.25743
Others 0.26206 0 0.51533 0 0 0.22261
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK Germany Netherlands France Switzerland Others Total
1987 314.20 1667.58 2489.80 147.56 179.04 197.34 4995.51
1988 375.03 2044.63 3388.43 127.24 195.56 217.82 6348.71
1989 515.60 2199.21 4300.86 76.83 175.73 16.64 7284.86
1990 634.38 2396.78 5151.37 76.49 235.20 159.36 8653.58
1991 772.59 2950.59 5961.90 98.05 261.04 290.98 10335.16
1992 1048.19 2504.69 7740.57 184.58 480.21 519.88 12478.13
1993 1911.46 5381.77 15430.62 120.14 1196.67 787.33 24827.98
1994 2534.34 5006.75 16452.37 185.85 937.53 1260.34 26377.19
1995 3873.02 5494.41 24373.22 218.30 870.03 1598.28 36427.27
1996 5226.48 5377.15 26657.78 246.13 609.88 5545.76 43663.19
1997 6663.35 4267.05 30355.03 362.49 746.17 2727.73 45121.82
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK Germany Netherlands France Switzerland Others
1987 370.74 1609.36 2650.63 46.77 146.61 171.40
1988 449.37 1914.04 3556.38 58.38 171.65 198.90
1989 533.81 1990.72 4336.49 64.82 175.02 184.00
1990 689.32 2172.40 5239.74 72.08 218.84 261.20
1991 856.29 2671.68 6138.56 87.56 250.12 330.95
1992 1184.92 2428.94 7896.98 82.60 377.83 506.86
1993 2154.97 4980.56 15656.93 173.77 881.36 980.39
1994 2803.39 4667.03 16829.95 168.14 755.90 1152.78
1995 4177.05 5099.32 24582.09 204.02 826.34 1538.45
1996 6352.92 4967.25 28773.59 208.32 719.71 2641.39
1997 6861.22 4169.44 30711.14 193.72 819.07 2367.24
Export trend of fresh Mangoes from Kenya to different countries
1974-83
Marcov Chain
Netherlan Netherlan Swit &
SA Germany France
d ds Others
SA 0.65045 0.33931 0 0.01025 0 0
UK 0.03797 0.55306 0.18891 0.14544 0.04953 0.02509
Germany 0 0 0.08015 0.51694 0 0.40291
France 0 0.53611 0.33770 0 0 0.12619
Netherlands 0 0.43613 0 0 0.56387 0
Swit & Others 0.47087 0 0 0 0 0.52913
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Swit &
Year SA UK Germany France Netherlands Total
Others
1974 7.04 20.64 3.92 3.93 5.68 1.72 42.94
1975 7.92 20.20 4.85 5.20 6.13 2.87 47.17
1976 8.08 23.76 6.63 6.03 5.80 2.15 52.46
1977 4.81 25.01 7.76 8.63 4.75 5.56 56.52
1978 1.08 20.24 9.00 8.06 6.53 7.75 52.66
1979 5.35 21.51 9.65 13.90 6.10 12.05 68.56
1980 14.82 50.25 16.32 8.43 6.09 21.51 117.42
1981 32.45 56.88 20.34 20.96 5.46 39.71 175.80
1982 65.86 45.73 14.44 10.59 4.60 32.27 173.50
1983 59.77 55.34 13.37 15.27 4.85 24.91 173.52
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Swit &
Year SA UK Germany France Netherlands
Others
1974 6.18 18.39 5.54 5.10 4.22 3.50
1975 7.27 19.32 5.96 5.52 4.46 4.63
1976 7.17 21.65 7.06 6.97 4.45 5.17
1977 6.70 22.16 8.26 7.70 3.91 7.79
1978 5.12 18.73 7.27 7.61 4.68 9.26
1979 9.97 23.82 9.53 8.17 4.50 12.56
1980 21.67 40.00 13.65 15.90 5.92 20.28
1981 41.96 56.09 19.45 19.12 5.90 33.28
1982 59.77 55.33 13.37 14.79 4.86 25.38
1983 52.71 61.19 16.68 15.57 5.48 21.88
Export trend of fresh Mangoes from Kenya to different countries
1974-97
Marcov Chain
Netherlan Netherlan Swit &
SA Germany France
d ds Others
SA 0.79380 0.13502 0 0.00842 0.06276 0
UK 0.33607 0.37412 0.21645 0.07335 0 0
Germany 0.35910 0.30998 0.06828 0.07845 0.18419 0
France 0 0 0.30436 0.05351 0 0.64213
Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 1
Swit & Others 0.03756 0.04931 0.02758 0.01797 0.01389 0.85369
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Swit &
Year SA UK Germany France Netherlands Total
Others
1984 172.79 81.34 26.11 11.88 15.03 63.65 370.80
1985 151.91 56.75 9.98 0.23 10.89 14.44 244.20
1986 299.23 87.28 27.50 13.32 40.98 31.69 500.01
1987 206.60 97.74 3.16 45.67 14.62 3.85 371.65
1988 281.98 123.10 66.35 21.90 25.51 178.18 697.03
1989 48.55 111.23 70.09 20.59 14.23 418.68 683.37
1990 133.21 100.22 74.50 36.48 31.60 277.14 653.15
1991 248.43 83.33 43.54 27.06 60.56 95.53 558.46
1992 157.74 70.31 53.61 16.89 68.49 572.52 939.56
1993 132.98 57.26 24.46 14.01 24.44 1058.02 1311.18
1994 63.44 107.17 24.90 26.04 28.42 1085.47 1335.44
1995 106.73 86.16 49.22 24.52 18.56 762.31 1047.50
1996 99.66 74.45 63.13 22.43 25.99 1624.79 1910.46
1997 139.77 60.41 95.04 25.31 6.04 832.52 1159.09
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Swit &
Year SA UK Germany France Netherlands
Others
75-85
Export trend of fresh French beans from Kenya to different countries
1974-85
Marcov Chain
Netherlan Netherlan
UK Germany Swit Belgium Others
d ds
UK 0.37169 0.59846 0 0.01813 0 0 0.01173
France 0.47527 0.25764 0.09398 0 0.13005 0 0.04306
Germany 0 0 0.26518 0 0.25521 0.47961 0
Netherlands 0 0.31881 0 0.56172 0 0 0.11947
Swit 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Belgium 0 0.23155 0 0 0 0.76845 0
Others 0 0 0 0.53630 0 0.46370 0
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK France Germany Netherlands Swit Belgium Others
1974 22.01 10.37 1.05 11.03 6.22 5.32 1.13
1975 44.80 19.90 1.97 19.89 0.30 7.15 3.45
1976 34.50 80.00 1.89 25.48 0.42 11.09 4.84
1977 82.97 75.50 11.19 16.13 15.37 8.34 11.01
1978 82.20 80.64 10.84 19.04 12.61 42.47 7.11
1979 126.18 143.74 16.20 28.13 17.71 63.31 14.18
1980 152.99 165.14 21.82 20.59 18.66 107.88 9.37
1981 182.72 215.44 25.67 21.27 22.34 120.16 10.01
1982 203.32 210.48 27.34 17.00 38.70 115.84 17.91
1983 280.34 146.00 40.20 43.31 53.97 136.30 9.04
1984 269.23 275.96 54.45 27.07 38.91 98.46 16.26
1985 410.56 292.70 69.10 38.73 66.91 147.01 24.40
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK France Germany Netherlands Swit Belgium Others
1974 19.33 20.59 1.25 7.20 1.62 5.12 2.02
1975 26.41 39.93 2.39 13.83 3.09 8.04 3.76
1976 51.27 51.95 8.02 17.53 10.89 11.67 6.89
1977 82.09 76.18 10.06 16.47 12.67 16.88 6.15
1978 81.49 85.88 10.45 16.00 13.25 41.13 6.71
1979 132.93 136.17 17.80 25.69 22.83 63.00 11.03
1980 154.01 165.65 21.31 19.37 27.04 97.71 11.36
1981 192.65 199.46 27.05 20.63 34.57 109.29 13.96
1982 214.31 208.15 27.03 22.84 34.35 110.44 13.48
1983 227.56 250.76 24.38 34.26 29.25 128.21 14.75
1984 270.14 263.65 40.38 28.80 49.79 109.32 18.27
1985 358.62 367.50 45.83 42.28 55.70 157.43 22.04
Total
57.14 4
97.46 5
158.22 5
220.50 4
254.92 6
409.45 6
496.45 6
597.60 7
630.60 7
709.17 7
780.34 7
1049.41 6
4
5
5
4
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
6
Export trend of fresh French beans from Kenya to different countries
1974-85
Marcov Chain
Netherlan Netherlan
UK Germany Swit Belgium Others
d ds
UK 0.37169 0.59846 0 0.01813 0 0 0.01173
France 0.47527 0.25764 0.09398 0 0.13005 0 0.04306
Germany 0 0 0.26518 0 0.25521 0.47961 0
Netherlands 0 0.31881 0 0.56172 0 0 0.11947
Swit 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Belgium 0 0.23155 0 0 0 0.76845 0
Others 0 0 0 0.53630 0 0.46370 0
Actuals
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK France Germany Netherlands Swit Belgium Others
1974 22.01 10.37 1.05 11.03 6.22 5.32 1.13
1975 44.80 19.90 1.97 19.89 0.30 7.15 3.45
1976 34.50 80.00 1.89 25.48 0.42 11.09 4.84
1977 82.97 75.50 11.19 16.13 15.37 8.34 11.01
1978 82.20 80.64 10.84 19.04 12.61 42.47 7.11
1979 126.18 143.74 16.20 28.13 17.71 63.31 14.18
1980 152.99 165.14 21.82 20.59 18.66 107.88 9.37
1981 182.72 215.44 25.67 21.27 22.34 120.16 10.01
1982 203.32 210.48 27.34 17.00 38.70 115.84 17.91
1983 280.34 146.00 40.20 43.31 53.97 136.30 9.04
1984 269.23 275.96 54.45 27.07 38.91 98.46 16.26
1985 410.56 292.70 69.10 38.73 66.91 147.01 24.40
Estimated
(lakh K. Shillings)
Year UK France Germany Netherlands Swit Belgium Others
1974 19.33 20.59 1.25 7.20 1.62 5.12 2.02
1975 26.41 39.93 2.39 13.83 3.09 8.04 3.76
1976 51.27 51.95 8.02 17.53 10.89 11.67 6.89
1977 82.09 76.18 10.06 16.47 12.67 16.88 6.15
1978 81.49 85.88 10.45 16.00 13.25 41.13 6.71
1979 132.93 136.17 17.80 25.69 22.83 63.00 11.03
1980 154.01 165.65 21.31 19.37 27.04 97.71 11.36
1981 192.65 199.46 27.05 20.63 34.57 109.29 13.96
1982 214.31 208.15 27.03 22.84 34.35 110.44 13.48
1983 227.56 250.76 24.38 34.26 29.25 128.21 14.75
1984 270.14 263.65 40.38 28.80 49.79 109.32 18.27
1985 358.62 367.50 45.83 42.28 55.70 157.43 22.04
Total
57.14 4
97.46 5
158.22 5
220.50 4
254.92 6
409.45 6
496.45 6
597.60 7
630.60 7
709.17 7
780.34 7
1049.41 6
4
5
5
4
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
6
acp1 Avocado (Step-1) Place curson here and run 'regression' --> Start Rows Y.Cols X.Cols 87
d 74-87 Begin 5 3 1
88-87 End 28 5 acp1d
# Year France Netherland UK Germany Switzerland Belgium SA Others Total value Unit Price
1 1974 68846 869 131849 16000 598 1014 2146 35417 256739 1026956 4
2 1975 73968 788 137021 82345 1006 2140 3140 4444 304852 1524260 5
3 1976 106709 1041 194717 96134 4121 3384 892 1366 408364 2041820 5
4 1977 209817 916 241196 152417 6014 5902 600 29541 646403 2585612 4
5 1978 273494 788 275392 145514 2183 6841 593 12161 716966 4301796 6
6 1979 203965 543 298721 120936 31089 4958 5018 125770 791000 4746000 6
7 1980 245640 10501 218971 121346 21931 12281 4408 19708 654786 3928716 6
8 1981 431716 1678 209422 123735 4244 25190 1412 131760 929157 6504099 7
9 1982 375806 19380 374811 157419 8453 6350 7923 12858 963000 6741000 7
10 1983 378124 70897 504833 67290 19965 3866 1410 23615 1070000 7490000 7
11 1984 476838 76338 542987 157419 24904 13348 42596 65570 1400000 9800000 7
12 1985 486501 85924 533720 294850 39817 16938 4104 90538 1552392 9314352 6
13 1986 656977 169552 639455 483865 52366 77880 5998 64690 2150783 17206264 8
14 1987 559157 167914 645006 428533 9459 69841 26437 96392 2002739 16021912 8
15 1988 1518701 364260 908597 660374 39293 135065 20780 106086 3753156 37531560 10
16 1989 1396040 170655 810221 760576 94953 27860 23151 154272 3437728 44690464 13
17 1990 1428771 100766 991680 574481 93360 65362 15802 40484 3310706 49660590 15
18 1991 2265441 225917 749260 695853 75785 13976 25133 141663 4193028 62895420 15
19 1992 4515511 438695 458597 395031 57895 217068 21941 205281 6310019 164060494 26
20 1993 3298744 1134422 461902 530595 937624 112493 32406 167533 6675719 193595851 29
21 1994 4041694 933586 1358635 1026344 97032 156410 66110 293228 7973039 229768131 29
22 1995 4017446 2745192 757622 743067 50512 131821 138707 1275063 9859430 394377200 40
23 1996 4593264 241381 316749 501412 46802 137549 142612 4449679 10429448 417177920 40
24 1997 4788550 3360385 220579 486125 360760 146690 155948 604936 10123973 421421621 41