Climate Technology in SEA. Key To Unlocking The World's Carbon Sink - 9Aug23BCG
Climate Technology in SEA. Key To Unlocking The World's Carbon Sink - 9Aug23BCG
Climate Technology in SEA. Key To Unlocking The World's Carbon Sink - 9Aug23BCG
Despite covering less than 1% of the world’s total This report delves into the exceptional potential of NbS in
area, Southeast Asia has the capability to provide Southeast Asia as powerful tools in addressing climate change.
approximately 30% of the global carbon-offset supply We will explore innovative mechanisms around NbS neces-
by 2030. However, the widespread adoption of NbS in the sary to usher in a sustainable future for Southeast Asia
region is hindered by various challenges across the value and the global community.
chain, including issues related to origination, demand
visibility, and quality assurance.
1. NbS-related startups have been estimated as a subset of the climate tech deals collected by Pitchbook. 29 such transactions were identified in
2022 vs 8 in 2017.
2 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
Why NbS presents a unique
opportunity for Southeast Asia to
contribute to the global climate
challenge
N
bS present unique and timely opportunities for There is nearly a 50/50 chance that the critical 1.5°C tem-
Southeast Asia to contribute significantly to address- perature threshold will be surpassed within the next five
ing the global climate challenge. years. Southeast Asia’s rapid economic growth, while com-
mendable, has come at the expense of high emissions that
The world is currently failing to keep track with the targets exacerbate these global challenges. This trend is expected
outlined in 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit the to persist as the region’s energy needs continue to grow in
global temperature rise to 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels. tandem with its expanding economy.
From 2015 to 2020, the global decarbonization rate—the
reduction in carbon intensity per unit of GDP—was just -1.5%,
significantly short of the required -16% decarbonization rate
needed by 2030 to maintain the 1.5°C or below pathway.
Exhibit 1 - SEA is uniquely positioned with huge NbS Potential & cost
competitive NbS carbon offsets
1. Area refers to the sum of all land and water areas as determined by international boundaries and/or coastlines, cost-competitive is defined as under $<10
2. High Range means the upper range of the carbon offset projected supply in 2030 3. Low Range means the lower range of the carbon offset projected supply in 2023
Source: IEA, The voluntary carbon market: 2022 insights and trends, CIA World Factbook, BCG Analysis
4 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
NbS can significantly contribute to achieving a net-zero for 29% of the global NbS cost-competitive mitigation
world, with a maximum mitigation potential of 21.7 Gt potential. Applying this ratio to the projected global NbS
CO2e/year, reducing projected emissions in 2030 by ~60%. carbon offset supply, Southeast Asia is poised to offer 200
Approximately 4.1 Gt CO2e/year (20%) of this maximum to 300 Mt CO2e/year of cost-competitive NbS carbon
mitigation potential, can be achieved at a cost of under offsets by 2030. This is remarkable considering that the
US$10/ton CO2e. Out of said cost-competitive NbS maxi- region encompasses only 0.7% of the world’s total area.
mum mitigation potential, projected global supply of NbS
carbon offset by 2030 is estimated at 700 to 1,000 Mt The avoidance of forest, peat, and coastland conversion
CO2e/year. represents the three most significant NbS levers in the
region. [Exhibit 2.]
Southeast Asia possesses a considerable cost-competitive
NbS mitigation potential of 1.2 Gt CO2e/year, accounting
Note: High Range means the upper range of the carbon offset projected supply in 2030. Low Range means the lower range of the carbon offset projected supply in 2023
Source: The voluntary carbon market: 2022 insights and trends, BCG Analysis
Forests play a vital role in offsetting carbon emissions, and for development or converted into plantations, lowering
avoiding forest conversion is estimated to be the largest the water content which renders them susceptible to fires.
NbS lever in Southeast Asia, potentially offering cost-com- This contributes to the highest GHG emissions from forest-
petitive carbon offsets of 89-133 Mt CO2e/year. Better ry and other land use (FOLU). By preserving peatlands,
forest management and reforestation can contribute to carbon emissions can be reduced and removed, offering a
carbon reduction and removal, although the high costs potential NbS lever of 58-87 Mt CO2e/year.
associated with reforestation make it less feasible for cost
competitive carbon offsets in Southeast Asia. Coastal wetlands—seagrass meadows, intertidal flats, tidal
salt marshes, mangrove forests, tidal freshwater wetland,
Southeast Asia’s peatlands account for over 54% of the and similar—are essential for carbon sequestration. Coast-
world’s peatlands and store ~75% of global peat carbon al wetlands are among the most utilized and threatened
stocks. However, peatlands are often drained and cleared natural systems, with a global area loss in some countries
Exhibit 3 - SEA NbS Carbon Offset Supply is huge and Indonesia is poised
to contribute to 67% of total projected supply
Note: Singapore and Brunei are excluded from the chart due to its minimum NbS potential contribution. Indonesia’s low-range figure is 134 Mt CO2e/year & high-range figure is 201 Mt CO2e/year
Source: The voluntary carbon market: 2022 insights and trends, BCG Analysis
6 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
Barriers to NbS uptake and how
Southeast Asia climate technology
startups are contributing to
alleviating them
B
arriers to the widespread adoption of NbS in South- standards, and methodologies. Asset owners struggle to
east Asia are impeding the realization of the region’s navigate these complexities, especially smaller landown-
enormous carbon offset potential. These barriers ers.
span the entire carbon offset value chain, and are catego-
rized as follows: (1) Origination, (2) Quality assessment & • Limited seed financing for projects. NbS projects lack suit-
assurance, (3) Trading, and (4) Demand Generation. able financing options with appropriate time horizons,
standardized asset characteristics, and liquidity profiles,
Origination deterring potential investors.
• Incomprehensive assessment. In addition to environmental • Buyer-side demands clarity. The demand for carbon credits
impact, the social benefits of NbS projects on rural and relies on buyers’ abilities to assess their carbon emis-
coastal communities often go unnoticed. An all-encom- sions accurately. Advanced technologies such as AI/ML,
passing assessment of these projects can enhance the IoT, and edge computing are instrumental in automating
value of carbon credit generated. carbon footprint assessments. Platforms in Southeast
Asia are providing real-time visibility and automation to
• Quality audit and certification. Carbon credits require boost buyer demand.
robust and non-fungible certifications to instill trust
among prospective buyers on primary and secondary Southeast Asia’s climate technology startups are address-
carbon credit markets. The certification process must be ing these barriers head-on, developing innovative solutions
transparent and reliable. to streamline the origination process, enhance quality
assessment and assurance, ensure credible certifications,
Trading facilitate efficient trading, and generate demand through
technological advancements.
• Price stability and market mechanisms. Advanced tech-
nologies are vital for facilitating cost-effective trading The growth of the climate technology landscape in Southeast
and building liquidity in nascent carbon credit markets. Asia has been remarkable, with more than triple the number
These technologies enable efficient asset exchange and of deals observed in 2022 compared to 2017. Over half of
ensure market stability. these deals directly or partially address the NbS sector, high-
lighting its importance. Some examples of the innovative
technology employed are mapped below. [Exhibit 4.]
8 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
As we examine the landscape, two notable observations seed financing services to support carbon offsetting proj-
emerge: ects. With a deep understanding of the local context and
expertise, Fairatmos is unlocking the power of nature for
• Verticalization. Startups are moving towards further the planet and communities. To date, Fairatmos has collab-
verticalization, capitalizing on synergies in the maturing orated with over 100 companies, communities, and govern-
climate technology space. For instance, Pachama, a Latin ments, processed more than 3,000,000 hectares of forest
American climate startup, initially focused on carbon off- for NbS potential, and facilitated fundraising of climate
set verification using satellite imagery and AI. Over time, projects worth over US$18 million. An exemplary project is
it expanded its offerings along the value chain, launching its partnership with Lindungi Hutan, assisting a local com-
a carbon credit marketplace in 2019. Recently, it has munity in planting and rehabilitating mangroves in Central
introduced partnership models to support forest carbon Java. With the help of Fairatmos’ free pre-feasibility study
projects from inception, leveraging technology to assess powered by AtmosCheck technology, the project has gener-
land potential, secure upfront financing, and monitor ated over US$3 million in funding interest and is currently
forest growth. in the project development process.
• Extending ecosystem. Climate technology extends Climate Impact X (CIX) is a global marketplace for trusted
beyond startups. Think tanks, non-government organiza- carbon credits, and another key example of a startup with
tions (NGOs), and research institutions have long been a compelling, climate-focused proposition. Headquartered
pioneers in climate and environmental protection. They in Singapore, CIX collaborates with innovative partners and
have developed advanced climate technology solutions leverages Singapore’s financial, legal, and commodities
that startups and other players can leverage. Notable hub infrastructures to build resilient platforms. CIX ensures
examples include Global Forest Watch’s widely used the secure and efficient trading of carbon credits by relying
solutions for MRV and climate monitoring, as well as on technology-powered tools, including satellite surveil-
World Wildlife Federation’s (WWF) Forest Foresight tool. lance, to monitor the projects from which the credits are
sourced. Jointly established by DBS Bank, Singapore Ex-
In the dynamic landscape of climate technology in South- change, Standard Chartered, and Temasek, CIX fosters
east Asia, several startups have emerged as key players, ecosystems that enable companies to take practical cli-
leveraging innovative solutions to address climate change mate mitigation action through trusted carbon credits. Its
and advance NbS. aim is to create a seamless trading experience that serves
the diverse needs of both buyers and sellers in the carbon
Fairatmos, based in Jakarta, is a technology platform that market.
sources, verifies, and connects carbon projects with compa-
nies seeking to offset their carbon footprint. Using rigorous Finally, Pantas is a platform launched by Bursa Malaysia
standards and advanced technologies, including deep and the London Stock Exchange Group, offering technolo-
learning and real-time satellite data through its Atmos- gy-enabled tools to help companies in aligning their car-
Check product, Fairatmos ensures the integrity of carbon bon emissions reporting with global standards.
projects listed on its platform. It also provides advisory and
• Wide range of market demands. The climate technology • Offtakes, volume guarantees, and pooled procurement.
space is still in its early stages, necessitating new prod- Capital is deployed when technology is available for
ucts to prove their safety, reliability, affordability, and purchase, reducing financial risks for companies during
scalability. Demand is still fluctuating as a result of the production scale-up. Companies can purchase offtakes
nascent market conditions. and volume guarantees through pooled procurement,
leveraging higher purchasing power and ensuring supply
• Long investment horizon for institutional investors. Develop- security. For example, the Clean Energy Buyers Associa-
ing technologies carry an inherent risk, and potentially tion offers opportunities for pooled procurement in the
offer longer pathways to returns on investment. Without region.
proper incentives, companies are hesitant to invest in
these technologies. It is crucial to create an appealing Coalitions
risk-return profile for institutional investors to attract
investment in climate technology. Collective pledges and commitments by organizations,
formalized through coalitions, send clear demand signals
• Insufficient value proposition for corporate buyers. Some to the market for climate technologies. This helps shape
climate technology solutions come at a cost premium the market attractiveness for investments. The First Mov-
without providing additional functional benefits as they ers Coalition is a prime example, through which 50% of
scale. To drive adoption, adopters need to be willing to companies are committed to decarbonizing seven hard-to-
pay this premium, necessitating a strong value proposi- abate industrial sectors by adopting clean energy technolo-
tion for corporate buyers. gies.
10 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
Business-as-usual approach not
enough anymore—call to action
across stakeholders
In the face of the escalating climate crisis, the traditional Recommendations for Investors, VCs and Financiers
“business-as-usual” approach is no longer sufficient. A and Industrial Leaders
collective call to action is needed across stakeholders to
drive meaningful change. Put climate technology at the forefront, recognizing that it
requires long-term commitment and sustained attention.
Recommendations for Corporate Buyers and Indus- Investing in climate technology is not the same as invest-
trial Leaders ing in short-term, consumer-focused platforms. It demands
a deep understanding of the sector and a willingness to
Corporate buyers/industrial leaders should embed the support solutions that address the pressing challenges of
climate lens into the company’s core strategy. It is essen- climate change.
tial for companies to go beyond treating climate action as
a ‘nice-to-have’ and instead integrate it into their core Look to build innovative financing instruments. Traditional
business strategy. This involves defining emission base- financing instruments often fall short in meeting the needs
lines, developing transition plans, and reducing emissions of climate technology developers and financiers due to the
across their operations and supply chains. Climate strate- unattractive risk-return profiles. To bridge this gap, innova-
gies should guide investment decisions and procurement tive financing instruments such as blended financing and
choices. climate project insurance are essential. Blended financing,
for example, combines concessional capital with traditional
GoTo Group, an Indonesian digital company, exemplifies investment to de-risk early phases of projects, catalyzing
this approach by setting sustainability commitments and further investments when the project becomes financially
embedding them within its long-term strategy. It is transi- attractive. These instruments help attract more capital and
tioning to a 100% electric vehicle (EV) fleet by 2030 and unlock the potential of climate technology.
has established an EV joint venture to accelerate EV adop-
tion in Indonesia. Incorporate climate metrics in investing and lending pro-
cesses to drive visibility and ownership of climate-related
Companies should actively participate in market-shaping risks and opportunities, integrating climate metrics into
initiatives such as AMCs, coalitions, offtake agreements, core investing and lending processes. This involves assess-
and pooled procurement. By doing so, they send a strong ing climate-related risks and opportunities alongside finan-
demand signal to the market, incentivizing the develop- cial considerations. By setting internal targets and incorpo-
ment and scaling of climate technology solutions. rating climate metrics, investors can prioritize
climate-conscious investments and ensure alignment with
Look also to invest in experimentation and risk-taking. sustainability goals. Not discounting the need to effectively
Recognizing that climate technology requires an experi- navigate the climate technology landscape, investors
mentation mindset and risk appetite, companies should should also invest in building internal capabilities and
allocate resources and budget for research and develop- expertise in the field.
ment in partnership with technology players.
Recommendations for Technology and Project
Olam, for instance, is at the forefront of integrating digital Owners
applications with climate action. It has introduced the
AtSource application, providing sustainability insights to The traditional linear path of product development, pro-
customers across agricultural supply chains, and the Olam duction setup, and commercialization is no longer suffi-
Farmer Information System, which leverages GPS and cient. Instead, we must foster an ecosystem that enables
survey data to provide farmers with better insights and parallelization and collaboration among various stakehold-
reporting. ers.
12 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
Conclusion
H
arnessing the transformative power of climate tech- Collaboration and partnerships within the ecosystem are
nology and NbS is imperative to combating climate paramount. By uniting companies, technology providers,
change and unlocking the vast carbon sink in South- and economic stakeholders, we can leverage expertise,
east Asia. While the region holds immense potential, real- resources, and the expert know-how to drive effective
izing its full benefits requires decisive action from all stake- solutions. Governments and regulators must also play a
holders. leading role in setting ambitious targets, streamlining
policies and regulations, and offering incentives that ignite
At this critical juncture, climate technology startups in sustainable development.
Southeast Asia face significant obstacles on their path to
maturity and widespread adoption. Addressing these chal- Together, we have the power to unlock Southeast Asia’s
lenges necessitates innovative funding mechanisms that climate technology potential and create a sustainable
attract investment, de-risk projects, and catalyze growth. future. The time for collective action is now.
Advanced market commitments and concessional finance
can serve as powerful tools to incentivize participation and
foster sustainable innovation.
Yulius is a Managing Director & Senior Partner in BCG’s Natalia Rialucky is a CEO and Founder in Fairatmos. You
Jakarta Office. You may contact him by email at may contact her by email at natalia.rialucky@fairatmos.
[email protected] com
Haikal Siregar is a Managing Director & Partner in BCG’s Cecilia Natasya Rachman is a Strategy & CEO Office
Jakarta Office. You may contact him by email at Analyst in Fairatmos. You may contact her by email at
[email protected] [email protected]
14 CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: KEY TO UNLOCKING THE WORLD’S CARBON SINK
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