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2024-Lecture 08

The document covers hypothesis testing and explains key statistical tests including the p-value concept, t-test for mean, and z-test of proportion. It provides examples and solutions for one-tailed and two-tailed z-tests and t-tests. Guidelines are given for applying t-tests to sample sizes less than and greater than 30.

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Nguyễn Tâm
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19 views

2024-Lecture 08

The document covers hypothesis testing and explains key statistical tests including the p-value concept, t-test for mean, and z-test of proportion. It provides examples and solutions for one-tailed and two-tailed z-tests and t-tests. Guidelines are given for applying t-tests to sample sizes less than and greater than 30.

Uploaded by

Nguyễn Tâm
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and Statistics

LECTURE 8
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
PART II

Adapted from http://www.prenhall.com/mcclave


OUTLINE

1. Explain the p-value concept


2. Explain the t-test for mean
3. Explain the z-test of proportion

9-2
p- Value

1. Probability of Obtaining a Test


Statistic More Extreme (≤ or ≥) than
Actual Sample Statistic (Computed From
The Sample Data) Given H0 Is True
2. Used to Make Rejection Decision
If p-Value < α, Reject H0
If p-Value ≥ α, Do Not Reject H0

9-3
One-tailed z test p- Value
EXAMPLE

368 gm.

9-4
One-tailed z test p- Value
SOLUTION

The sample mean


H0: μ = 365
observed in our
Ha: μ > 365 sample

Should we think that H0 is true


and our observed sample mean
(372.5) just happen by chance?
9-5
One-tailed z test p- Value
SOLUTION

Use
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction

Z
Z value of sample
statistic =2.5
9-6
One-tailed z test p- Value
SOLUTION

9-7
One-tailed z test p- Value
SOLUTION

p-Value = 0.0062 is small; therefore our observed


sample mean (372.5) is unlikely to happen if Ho is
true (chance is too low). But remember that this
value (372.5) did happen. Therefore, evidence
supports that Ho is false.
We compare p-value and α to make decision. As p-
value =0.0062 < α = 0.05, we say that the test is
significant and there is enough evidence at α = 0.05
to infer that Ha is true.

9-8
TWO-TAILED Z TEST P-VALUE
EXAMPLE

368 gm.

9-9
One-tailed z test p- Value
SOLUTION

Z value of sample
statistic (observed)

9 - 10
One-tailed z test p- Value
SOLUTION

½ p-value ½ p-value

Z value of sample
statistic (observed)

9 - 11
ONE POPULATION TESTS

9 - 12
9 - 13
Two - tailed t – test
Finding critical t- value

Critical Values of t Table

9 - 14
Two - tailed t – test
EXAMPLE
Does an average box of
cereal contain 368
grams of cereal? A
random sample of 36
boxes had a mean of
372.5 & a standard
deviation of 12 grams.
Test at the .05 level.
Assume normal
population. 368 gm.

9 - 15
Two - tailed t – test
SOLUTION

Test Statistic:
H0: μ = 368
Ha: μ ≠ 368
α = .05
df = 36 - 1 = 35 Decision:
Critical Value(s): Reject Ho at α = .05
Conclusion:

There is enough evidence to


9 - 16 conclude that…
ONE-TAILED T TEST
EXAMPLE

Is the average capacity of batteries


at least 140 ampere-hours?
A random sample of 20 batteries
had a mean of 138.47 & a standard
deviation of 2.66. Assume a normal
distribution. Test the hypothesis
that the average capacity of
batteries is smaller than140
ampere-hours at the .05 level.
9 - 17
One - tailed t – test
SOLUTION

9 - 18
Robustness of one-sample t-procedures
(Testing & CI)

• Results of one-sample t procedures are most


reliable when population is normal (other
conditions met)
• Procedures are robust if probability
calculations required are insensitive to
violations of assumptions

9 - 19
Robustness of one-sample t-procedures
(Testing & CI)

9 - 20
Practical guidelines for one-sample
t-procedures (Testing & CI)
• n < 30: Use t procedures if the data are close to
normal. If data are clearly non-normal or if outliers
are present, do not use t.
• n ≥ 30: t can be used except in presence of outliers
or strong skewness
• Large samples (n ≥ 40): t can be used even for
clearly skewed distributions without outliers

9 - 21
Practical guidelines for one-sample
t-procedures (Testing & CI)

Before using t procedures, use (a combination of)


appropriate graphical methods (e.g. Q-Q plot,
boxplot, histogram, stem and leaf display,) to check
for skewness and outliers.

9 - 22
Z – TEST OF PROPORTION
QUALITATIVE DATA

1. Qualitative Random Variables Yield Responses


That Classify
e.g., Gender (Male, Female)
2. Measurement Reflects # in Category
3. Nominal or Ordinal Scale
4. Examples
Do You Own Savings Bonds?
Do You Live On-Campus or Off-Campus?

9 - 24
PROPORTIONS

9 - 25
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
OF PROPORTION

Sampling Distribution

9 - 26
STANDARDIZING SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION OF PROPORTION

Sampling Standardized
Distribution n Normal Distribution

σ P^ σz = 1

μ P^ ^
P μ Z= 0 Z
9 - 27
ONE-SAMPLE Z TEST FOR
PROPORTION

9 - 28
ONE-PROPORTION Z TEST
EXAMPLE
The present packaging
system produces 10%
defective cereal boxes.
Using a new system, a
random sample of 200
boxes had 11 defects.
Does the new system
produce fewer defects?
Test at the .05 level.

9 - 29
ONE-PROPORTION Z TEST
SOLUTION

H0: p = .10 Test Statistic:


Ha: p < .10

α = .05; n = 200 Decision:


Critical Value(s): Reject Ho at α = .05
Conclusion:

There is enough evidence


new system < 10% defective
9 - 30
CONCLUSION

1. Explain the p-value concept


2. Explain the t-test for mean
3. Explain the z-test of proportion

9 - 31

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