Gas Pressure:

Exploring the case for gas-fired

power in South Africa

IISD REPORT

Richard Halsey
Richard Bridle
Anna Geddes

© 2022 International Institute for Sustainable Development | IISD.org March 2022

Gas Pressure

© 2022 International Institute for Sustainable Development

Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development
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Gas Pressure:
Exploring the case for gas-fired power in South Africa
March 2022
Written by Richard Halsey, Richard Bridle, and Anna Geddes

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Acknowledgements
The authors of this report would like to thank the following individuals for their valuable peer
review advice and suggestions:

• Jan Arkert, Principal, Africa Exposed Geological Consultants

• Bruno Merven, Senior Researcher, Energy Systems Research Group, University of
Cape Town
• Liziwe McDaid, Strategic Lead, The Green Connection
• James Reeler, Senior Climate Specialist, WWF South Africa
• Celeste Renaud, Analyst, Meridian Economics
• Hilton Trollip, Research Fellow, Global Risk Governance Programme

We are also grateful to IISD colleagues Greg Muttitt, Chido Muzondo, Shruti Sharma, and
Peter Wooders for their inputs during the internal review process, and to Aia Brnic, Katherine
Clark, Elise Epp, and Tom Penner for design and publication work.

The authors also thank the following individuals who assisted in various ways, including
providing contact details, sharing resources, engaging in discussion, or being interviewed.

Brandon Abdinor, Patrick Bond, Abbas Bilgrami, Rian Brand, Henry Gilfillan, Gillian
Hamilton, Nick Hedley, Robyn Hugo, Gregory Ireland, Avena Jacklin, Kaspar Knorr,
Gabrielle Knott, David Le Page, Nicole Loser, Clyde Mallinson, Andrew Marquard,
Lonwabo Mgoduso, Elaine Mills, Craig Morkel, Crescent Mushwana, Bronwyn Nortje,
Mandy Rambharos, Adam Roff, Frank Spencer, Emily Tyler, and Jennifer Zeiss. The views
in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of these individuals and should not be
attributed to them.

We also thank the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities, and Climate for their generous
financial support to the project. The views in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of
this funder and should not be attributed to them.

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Executive Summary
The power sector in South Africa is facing multiple challenges. Eskom, the financially
distressed public utility, is regularly unable to meet demand, resulting in load shedding. The
existing fleet of ageing, heavily polluting coal-fired power stations will be retired in the coming
decades. As a result, there is an urgent need for new, low-carbon, utility-scale electricity
generators and infrastructure.

However, there are strong indications that South Africa is potentially on the verge of a gas
investment flurry that could prove to be a very expensive mistake for the South African people.
Many of these indications come from economically and politically powerful gas interests,
including interests inside government.

There used to be a rational view that fossil gas would be necessary either during a transition
to low-carbon energy or as part of the long-term energy mix for electricity production. But
revolutions first in renewable energy costs and then in battery storage costs have upended this
view. Analysis of the South African electricity system shows that gas supply is not technically
necessary until at least 2035, if ever. In the last few years, either the risks associated with gas
have increased, or the understanding of existing risks has increased. Consequently, South
Africa may see significant negative outcomes from developing a large gas-to-power system
now (See Figure ES1).

As indicated in Figure ES1, the trend toward decarbonization, coupled with cost reductions
for renewable energy and storage, creates risks for gas investment. Investment in gas can
reasonably be expected to lead to higher costs for consumers, just transition challenges for
workers, and losses for investors. Because of these risks, it is time to rethink the development
of the electricity supply sector.

The electricity system can be thought of as having three distinct types of supply. First, the
majority of power (the bulk supply) should be as cheap as possible and always used when
available. Second, the short-term daily peaks should be dealt with by peaking plants. Third,
the balancing (or backup) should smooth over the crests and troughs of demand and supply
(Figure ES2). Contracts should reflect these categories so that the more expensive peaking
and balancing plants are generally only used when bulk power is unavailable.

It is now clear that renewable energy, in the form of wind and solar, provides the cheapest
source of bulk supply. Similarly, battery storage is increasingly considered the lowest-cost power
for new-build peaking capacity (See Figure ES2). South Africa’s existing electricity system
(dominated by dispatchable sources and minimal variable sources) is well suited to provide the
balancing function in the short to medium terms. In addition, there are only very rare occasions
in a future system based on optimally developed renewables and storage when flexible and
dispatchable generators such as gas turbines are required. This development pathway also allows
liquid fuels, within the existing use range, to provide this function until at least 2035, if required.
Therefore, introducing gas into the power sector is not currently necessary.

The electricity market will also enter a new age around 2035, as most coal generators will be
phased out. For this reason, the gas industry has identified an opportunity to expand gas usage
and investment in gas generators, with a view to delivering peaking, balancing, and perhaps
even bulk supply from gas. This would be a costly mistake.

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Figure ES1. Risks of developing a gas-to-power sector in South Africa from 2022
onwards
Input variables Create further Potential negative
and risks interdependent risks outcomes for electricity
sector and consumers

GHG emissions of International gas Gas-to-power lock-in:

gas-to-power phase-out pressure • GHG emissions reduce
value chain carbon budget in energy
sector
Financial risks: • Future government
reduced funding, subsidies or bailouts to
Improving keep uncompetitive sector
measures for grid increase cost of
capital, carbon tax, going
integration of Stranded
renewables trade taxes, etc. • Delays or crowds-out
assets uptake of superior
alternatives even though
Additional they cost less and better
Economic risks: future just for climate, environment
Direct alternatives gas functions in and society
to gas improving transition
electricity sector burden
and decreasing in already outcompeted
cost or expected based on Divergence from optimal
trends emissions and least cost
pathway:
Reliance on gas • Higher than necessary
imports, future Reduced security of prices for electricity
domestic supply affordable gas supply, consumers, especially if
uncertain price volatility of LNG gas used at high capacity
factor

Gas-to-power sector faces

a repeat of just transition
challenges currently
experienced by coal sector

Even today, there is no economic case for bulk or peaking supply from new-build gas plants
to supply bulk or peaking functions. We argue that, given the cost trends, it is likely that before
significant new balancing capacity is needed, the costs of renewables and storage will have
declined to the point that these technologies can provide more of the balancing function.
Additional technologies, including green hydrogen, may well have also matured sufficiently to
play a role in the post-2035 electricity sector. There remains some uncertainty about what the
future will bring, which is why a decision on future balancing needs should be postponed.

South Africa should focus on low-risk, future-proof strategies to end load shedding and curb
electricity price hikes. The short-term focus must therefore be centred on a rapid addition
of least-cost renewable capacity coupled with storage, and increasing energy efficiency. The
energy sector is in a disruptive phase due to rapid advances in technologies that compete with
gas functions. Because gas is both high risk and not necessary in the power sector until at least
2035, a decision on a future requirement for gas should be revisited around 2030 based on
available technologies and costs at that time. In the meantime, a moratorium should be placed
on the development of the gas-to-power sector. Therefore, gas-to-power should certainly not
be viewed as a way to secure sufficient domestic gas demand to grow broader gas supply in
South Africa.

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Figure ES2. Economic case and technical need for gas turbines and gas supply in the
power system
Is there an economic case for new gas turbines?

BULK SUPPLY PEAKING BALANCING & BACKUP

No. No. Becoming increasingly uneconomic.
CCGTs already OCGTs outcompeted Introducing other cheaper or
outcompeted by by renewables plus cost-competitive methods for integrating
lower-carbon storage and utility- renewables reduces the need for flexible
options of wind scale batteries. and dispatchable generators (at a specific
and solar PV. Price reduction trend level of renewables penetration).
of alternatives set to Costs are decreasing for alternative
continue. flexible and dispatchable generators (such
as green hydrogen technology) and
long-duration storage.

Is there a technical need for new gas turbines?

BULK SUPPLY PEAKING/BALANCING & BACKUP

No. Increasingly outcompeted by alternatives.
In the short term, while renewables penetration is still low: Recent
advances in energy storage capabilities decrease the need for new
turbines before ~2030. Further research and revised modelling is required
to better understand the scale of disruption caused by these advances.
In the longer term, when renewable penetration is high: Future
improvements in energy storage, decentralized systems and renewables
integration will further reduce the need for new turbines relative to
current predictions, potentially to zero.

Is there a technical need for building new gas supply infrastructure? ← e.g., LNG terminals
and pipelines

BULK SUPPLY PEAKING/BALANCING & BACKUP

No. Not prior to 2035, if ever.
Pre-2035, optimized models that do build OCGTs have also shown that
the existing liquid fuel infrastructure is sufficient to supply fuel because
these OCGTs are run so infrequently.
Post-2035, alternative fuels like green hydrogen may be cost competitive,
or the need for any further flexible and dispatchable generators may have
been negated by advances in long-term storage and grid technologies.

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Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................... 1

2.0 Status Quo of Gas-to-Power in South Africa............................................................................................... 3

2.1 Gas Factors Within the Power System....................................................................................................................... 3

2.2 Substantial Appetite for Gas-to-Power Development.................................................................................4
2.3 The Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme:
Expensive and delayed.....................................................................................................................................................................4
2.4 Political Economy: The debate around scale, timing, and need for gas-to-power in
South Africa is highly contested..............................................................................................................................................6
2.5 Vested Interests Are Pushing Gas-to-Power as a Way to Catalyze Growth in the
Gas Industry as a Whole................................................................................................................................................................6

3.0 Risks of Gas-to-Power Investment ....................................................................................................................8

Risk 1: The gas-to-power value chain contributes significantly to climate change.....................8

Risk 2: There is increasing international pressure to move away from gas due to
climate impacts.....................................................................................................................................................................................9
Risk 3: The failing economics linked with gas-to-power...................................................................................10
Risk 4: Risk of reduced security of affordable gas supply...............................................................................10
Risk 5: Stranded gas assets.......................................................................................................................................................11
Risk 6: Creation of additional just transition burden............................................................................................12

4.0 Alternatives to Gas-to-Power Are Improving..............................................................................................13

4.1 Bulk Supply: Renewables can provide cheaper electricity than gas............................................... 14
4.2 Peaking: Energy storage prices have already dropped sufficiently to replace gas ............15
4.3 Balancing and Backup: Alternatives to gas are improving and decreasing in price.......... 16

5.0 The South African Power System Can Meet Demand to 2035 Without Gas Supply...............18

5.1 Bulk Supply: Gas is not required as a bridging fuel to a renewable energy-
dominated system............................................................................................................................................................................ 18
5.2 Peaking, Balancing, and Backup: Gas supply is not necessary until 2035, if ever............... 18

6.0 Focus on Short-Term Priorities and Knowledge Gaps..............................................................................22

6.1 Long-Term Vision to 2050.................................................................................................................................................. 22

6.2 Planning to 2030....................................................................................................................................................................... 23

7.0 Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................................................26

7.1 There Are Significant Negative Outcomes of Developing a Large Gas-to-Power

System Now........................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
7.2 Bring Renewable Energy Capacity Online as Fast as Possible and Complement
With Storage as Required........................................................................................................................................................... 27

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7.3 Electricity Planning Needs to Be Updated to Reflect Current Trends and Risks:
A new IRP is needed......................................................................................................................................................................... 28
7.4 Pause the Development of a Gas-to-Power Sector .................................................................................... 28

References............................................................................................................................................................................ 29

Appendix 1. Status Quo of Gas-to-Power in South Africa.......................................................................... 38

Appendix 2. Policy Framework.....................................................................................................................................41

Appendix 3. Potential Stranded Asset Risk......................................................................................................... 44

List of Figures

Figure ES1. Risks of developing a gas-to-power sector in South Africa from 2022 onwards..........v
Figure ES2. Economic case and technical need for gas turbines and gas supply in the
power system...................................................................................................................................................................................................vi
Figure 1. Five key status quo features to inform gas-to-power decisions in South Africa............... 3
Figure 2. LCOE estimates for South Africa 2020............................................................................................................. 14
Figure 3. International, unsubsidized LCOE ranges for utility-scale PV plus storage
systems vs. gas peakers........................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Figure 4. Measures to integrate renewables into the grid.......................................................................................... 17
Figure 5. Economic case and technical need for gas turbines and gas supply in the
power system..................................................................................................................................................................................................21
Figure 6. Capacity additions 2020 to 2030 in the development of the IRP 2019.................................. 24
Figure 7. A low-risk approach to address power shortages and the rush for gas.................................. 25
Figure 8. Risks of developing a gas-to-power sector in South Africa from 2022 onwards............. 27
Figure A1. Infrastructure and reserves linked to existing gas or possible future gas projects....38

List of Tables

Table 1. Adjectives used for energy technologies................................................................................................................ 2

Table A1. Some of the main components of regulation, planning, and implementation of
activities linked to developing a gas-to-power sector................................................................................................ 41
Table A2. Estimated capital costs for basic gas-to-power infrastructure in South Africa..........45

List of Boxes

Box 1. Energy system concepts and terminology.................................................................................................................1

Box 2. Level of gas plant utilization and capacity factor.............................................................................................. 5
Box 3. Gas power plants are based on two main turbine types ............................................................................13

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Abbreviations and Acronyms

CCGT combined-cycle gas turbines

CDC Coega Development Corporation

CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research

DMRE Department of Mineral Resources and Energy

DSI Department of Science and Innovation

FSRU floating storage and regasification unit

GHG greenhouse gas

GMP Gas Master Plan

GTL gas-to-liquid

IEP Integrated Energy Plan

IPP independent power producer

IRP Integrated Resource Plan

LCOE levelized cost of energy

LNG liquefied natural gas

NBI National Business Initiative

NERSA The National Energy Regulator of South Africa

OCGT open-cycle gas turbines

PV photovoltaic

RFI request for information

RMI4P Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme

VRE variable renewable energy

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1.0 Introduction
The power sector in South Africa is facing multiple challenges. Eskom, the public utility
generating over 90% of the electricity in the country, is regularly unable to meet demand,
resulting in load shedding (Eskom, 2021).1 The existing fleet of aging Eskom coal-fired
power stations, most of which will be retired in the coming decades,2 are also the largest
contributor to South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate
change (Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, 2021). Eskom is in a
financial crisis, with massive debt and no clear solution to this problem. This situation makes
Eskom particularly vulnerable to any projects that could add unnecessary financial risk. As a
result, there is an urgent need for new, low-carbon, low-cost, low-risk utility-scale electricity
generators and supporting infrastructure, but the exact composition of optimal energy
investments is subject to fierce debate, political manoeuvring, and industry lobbying.

Box 1. Energy system concepts and terminology

Utility-scale electricity facilities can be broadly divided into three functional
categories
Other authors may use slightly different interpretations, but this is how concepts are
used in this report. There is no strict boundary between peaking and balancing and
backup.

1. Bulk supply—Where a facility provides a significant or majority proportion of total

electricity generation. These plants will usually run continuously all year or when
available.
2. Peaking—Where a facility is used to meet daily spikes of high electricity demand,
often at peak times in the morning and evening. These plants have rapid response
times and should only need to run for very short periods (minutes to hours) as
required during the day.
3. Balancing and backup—Where a facility is used to respond to a change in supply
or demand or to function as a backup for when other generation facilities are
offline due to breakdown or maintenance. This function may be required for
longer periods than peaking (hours to days), but it is still not for primary supply.
Variable generators, such as wind and solar, generate in accordance with resource
availability, so they present additional system balancing needs.

1 “Load shedding” is a term used for scheduled, rotational power cuts among supplied regions to maintain overall
grid stability. The steadily declining performance of Eskom power plants, measured by energy availability factor,
means that load shedding will be a worsening long-term problem until the rate of new capacity addition increases
significantly.
2 Excludes the recently constructed Medupi and Kusile plants, which have a design life of 50 years.

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Natural gas3 is often assumed to be required either during a transition to low-carbon energy or
as part of the long-term energy mix for electricity production. However, in the last few years
either the risks associated with gas4 have increased, or the understanding of existing risks has
increased, while the alternatives that can play an analogous role in the electricity system have
rapidly improved. Given these recent changes, an objective re-evaluation of the suitability of
using natural gas for electricity generation (known as gas-to-power) in South Africa is now
required.

This report summarizes the current and emerging factors related to developing a gas-to-power
program in South Africa and how these could affect energy planning and investment decisions.

Energy generation and storage technologies can be described by the way they operate.

Table 1. Adjectives used for energy technologies

Characteristics Examples (non-exhaustive)

Flexible Can be turned on and off quickly Batteries, pumped storage

(within 5 to 10 minutes).

Dispatchable Power generation can be Coal, nuclear, combined-cycle

scheduled in advance, subject to gas turbines,
constraints around starting up
and ramping up output.

Flexible and Possible to schedule in advance Open-cycle gas turbines

dispatchable and can also be turned on and off (gaseous or liquid fuel),
quickly (within 5 to 10 minutes). hydropower

Variable No fuel, relies on intermittent Wind, solar photovoltaic (PV)

natural processes.

3 Natural gas is a fossil fuel occurring in sedimentary rocks as a mixture of hydrocarbons, primarily methane.
4 In this report, “gas” is taken to mean natural gas unless otherwise stated.

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2.0 Status Quo of Gas-to-Power in South

Africa

2.1 Gas Factors Within the Power System

Five key facts set the scene for a discussion of gas demand, supply, infrastructure, and policy.
These features inform the debate on developing a gas-to-power sector in the South African
energy context (see Appendix 1 for further details and a map).

Figure 1. Five key status quo features to inform gas-to-power decisions in South Africa

1 Gas is not yet used for utility-scale electricity production.

Gas use is almost entirely for industry, mainly the
production of synthetic fuels.

2 Gas supply relies on overland piped imports from Mozambique,

but future supply options (domestic offshore or land imported)
remain on the drawing board.

3 There is no existing infrastructure for large-scale

liquefied natural gas (LNG) importation via the sea.
Existing infrastructure for inland piped gas is limited to
three provinces (Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and Kwazulu Natal).

4 Several important gas-related plans and policies are still under

development, require updating, or have not been implemented.
Overall, the policy framework is incomplete and insufficient
to guide sectoral development—there is no Integrated
Energy Plan (IEP) and a Gas Master Plan (GMP) has still not
been completed.

5 Gas is often promoted as a way to complement variable

energy sources, but only a tiny fraction of the electricity
supply currently comes from variable renewable energy (VRE).
Electricity supply is dominated by dispatchable technologies
(coal, nuclear, and liquid fuels) at over 93%, while variable
sources, mainly wind and solar, account for only about 5%
(Statistics South Africa, 2021).

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2.2 Substantial Appetite for Gas-to-Power Development

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 for electricity infrastructure development envisages
3,000 MW of gas by 2030 (Department of Mineral Resources and Energy [DMRE], 2019a);
however, there are several indications that despite this official allocation, a much bigger gas-to-
power sector is envisioned.

First, as of March 2022, there are proposed gas-to-power projects of at least 14,000 MW,
equivalent to 36% of the nominal capacity of Eskom’s coal fleet or 2.8 times the operational
utility wind and solar capacity.5 Of these projects, if the 9,500 MW of onshore gas plants were
built near three ports along with LNG import terminals and pipelines, the construction costs
could be over ZAR 184 billion (USD 12.1 billion, see Appendix 3). Given the state of gas-to-
power policy, it is unclear how this quantity of potential projects aligns with current national
power sector planning.

Second, the proposed Gas Amendment Bill (see Appendix 2), which is intended to “unlock
investment into the gas sector and facilitate the development of gas infrastructure” (Mantashe,
2021b), also assigns powers to the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy (including
making capacity determinations) to direct development of gas-to-power infrastructure. The
current Minister, Gwede Mantashe, has stated that a reason to update the IRP is to “increase
the generation from gas” (Steyn, 2022). Combined with the President referring to gas as a
“game changer” (Ramaphosa, 2019), it seems that a substantial gas-to-power sector, over and
above the current IRP 2019, is envisioned.

2.3 The Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer

Procurement Programme: Expensive and delayed
The Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (RMI4P) was
initiated in December 2019 as an emergency measure to bring new generation capacity
online as fast as possible to reduce the short-term supply gap and reduce occurrence of load-
shedding (DMRE, 2019b). Gas projects totalling 1,418 MW accounted for 71% of the total
preferred bidder capacity (1,995 MW) and will be the first gas-to-power projects in South
Africa if they go ahead after three postponements. The latest deadline for financial close is the
end of March 2022 (DMRE, n.d., 2022). The controversial Karpowership projects (1,220
MW), subject to multiple court cases, consist of gas plants on ships, moored at three harbours
and supplied by imported LNG (amaBhungane, 2021).

5 Projects were included as “proposed” if they had already been granted environmental authorization or
applications were still in process during 2021: Richards Bay—6,520 MW (Phinda, Eskom, Nseleni, RBG2P2);
Coega Development Corporation—3,000 MW; Saldahna—1,500 MW (ArcelorMittal); Atlantis— 1,500 MW
(City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality); RMI4P—1,418 MW. All CCGTs. This list is not exhaustive.

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Box 2. Level of gas plant utilization and capacity factor

The level of utilization of gas plants is critical in understanding power sector planning.
For example, if a 1,000 MW gas plant is used for bulk supply, it will produce far more
electricity and burn far more gas over a year than if the same plant is used for peaking.
Where a plant is planned for backup or reserve capacity, it may sit idle for most of the
year and only be used on rare occasions as required.

So, within the power system, the percentage of installed gas capacity can be much
greater than the annual percentage of electricity produced from gas. For example, there
could be 20% installed gas capacity on the grid, but if it is only used a few days of the
year when required as a reserve, the annual electricity produced from gas may be less
than 1%.

The term capacity factor is the ratio of actual electricity output relative to the
maximum possible electricity output over a given time period (Energy Information
Administration, n.d.). In power system modelling, planned gas plants are assumed to
operate at designated capacity factors: these will be high in the case of bulk supply and
much lower for peaking or balancing and backup. Consequently, the projected carbon
emissions, gas demand, and electricity tariff are directly affected by the capacity factor.

Of most concern to energy analysts is the fact that the 20-year power purchase agreements for
the RMI4P were constructed as a type of take-or-pay where Eskom would need to pay for
a minimum of 50% of the net available capacity each year (DMRE, 2020). This take-
or-pay structure is effectively forcing gas to be used to provide bulk supply, even though it has
been shown in least-cost modelling scenarios that gas is never required at such a high-capacity
factor (Wright & Calitz, 2020). Therefore, South Africa will be locked into paying more for
gas power even when better and cheaper alternatives are available. A conservative estimate
puts the additional costs of this arrangement over the contract period at ZAR 42 billion (USD
2.84 billion)6 on Eskom and ultimately the consumer (Trollip, 2021). At higher LNG prices,
these costs will be even more.

This background explains why South Africa is on the verge of a gas investment
flurry that could prove to be a very expensive mistake for the South African people.
Developing an extensive gas-to-power sector from scratch would involve significant
investment in both gas supply infrastructure and power plants. Just to introduce
the first 3,000 MW of gas capacity and gas supply by 2030 will cost at least ZAR 47
billion (USD 3.1 billion, see Appendix 3), money that could be wasted as gas is being
functionally squeezed out by cheaper, low-carbon alternatives (discussed in Sections
4 and 5). So, are these gas-to-power investments still prudent?

6 Historical exchange rates are from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, n.d.

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2.4 Political Economy: The debate around scale, timing,

and need for gas-to-power in South Africa is highly
contested.
Members of the fossil fuel industry have been pushing hard for the development of a gas-
to-power sector in South Africa, claiming it is an essential part of a just energy transition,
including sponsored articles in mainstream media (see, e.g., Shell, 2021). The DMRE, the
Minister of Energy, and Eskom are promoting gas-to-power (see, e.g., "Eskom CEO Sees
End,” 2021). Furthermore, the design of the RMI4P shows an intent by the government7 to
use gas-to-power at a high-capacity factor for bulk supply rather than for peaking or balancing
where gas use is much lower. Conversely, many civil society organizations and institutions are
against gas and gas-to-power based on economic, environmental, and climate change concerns
(see, e.g., Project 90 by 2030, 2021). Several influential energy research groups and think
tanks have nuanced views—currently perceiving some future role for gas as a balancing fuel
(not for bulk supply) but based on interviews are reviewing their positions.

2.5 Vested Interests Are Pushing Gas-to-Power as a Way

to Catalyze Growth in the Gas Industry as a Whole.
The broader gas industry in South Africa has faced a challenge for many years: Without secure
and affordable supply, it is difficult to develop localized gas demand, and without guaranteed
off-takers it is difficult to develop a supply industry. According to the 2021 stakeholder
consultation document for developing a GMP, “One way of breaking this impasse is to
create significant “anchor” gas demand through the development of a gas-to-power
programme” (DMRE, 2021b). This is a problematic approach as it assumes that gas is both
a necessary and optimal requirement in the power sector without interrogating or proving it.

Decisions need to be made in the right order. National energy planning must first
demonstrate that gas-to-power investment is optimal in terms of its primary function (to
generate electricity) before it is used as way to motivation for other investments (such as
developing gas supply).

Policy-makers should judge what is best for the people of South Africa not what is best for
the gas industry. In reality, gas-to-power faces many risks and is not where efforts should be
focused now, as we shall show in the following sections.

Moreover, pushing for a gas-to-power industry to help kickstart domestic gas supply through
extraction and production may have other negative outcomes. There is a large body of
evidence that indicates that a sudden increase in resource extraction can lead to a “resource
curse,” which brings with it a range of negative socio-economic impacts (Gaventa, 2021;
Hamilton, 2021; World Bank, 2003). This can include increased inequality, usually due to
the concentration of wealth by industry and foreign investors (Beblawi & Luciani, 1987;
World Bank, 2003), increased social conflict that is more likely to impact the poor (Collier

7 In this report, “the government” is taken to mean the National Government of South Africa unless otherwise
stated.

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& Hoeffler, 2004; Ross, 2013), and lower economic growth (Auty, 2004; Sachs & Warner,
1995; van der Ploeg, 2011). These negative impacts are more likely in countries with fewer
well-governed government institutions, weak rule of law, and a lack of regulations and
complementary policies aimed at reducing inequality and poverty (World Bank, 2003).

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3.0 Risks of Gas-to-Power Investment

No investment is without risk. Any energy investment could face risks related to construction
costs, regulation, service demand, fuel prices, project finance, and many other factors.
However, at the present time, investments in gas-to-power are subject to particularly
significant risks. While in theory investments risks are usually borne by investors, in practice,
powerful interest groups are often able to appeal to government to step in to secure their
investments. Effectively, this means that some investment risks are borne by the people while
the profits remain private.

This section outlines six of the most significant risks facing the sector. Additional upstream
environmental impacts, such as those associated with offshore gas exploration and production
are important, but not included in this report.

Risk 1: The gas-to-power value chain contributes

significantly to climate change.
As a fossil fuel, gas emits carbon dioxide when burned, adding to the problem of climate
change. While gas proponents claim that it is preferable to coal based on its lower emissions
of carbon dioxide, it can be little or no better than coal when all greenhouse gases are
taken into account. Methane has a global warming potential about 85 times that of
carbon dioxide over a 20-year period (Myhre et al., 2013), and along the gas value chain
(extraction, phase changes, transportation, and storage) it can escape into the atmosphere.

Methane leakage has been significantly underestimated, and the gas industry contributes far
more to climate change than previously thought (Turner et al., 2016). Alvarez et al. (2018)
estimated that around 2.3% of the natural gas extracted in the United States is leaked into the
atmosphere, and Busch and Gimon (2014) found that poorly managed facilities can create
leakages of up to 4%. Scholes et al. (2016) observed that there is no emissions benefit in
shifting from coal to gas power at leakage rates from 1.9–3.2%. Therefore, switching from coal
to gas may not result in any direct reduction in GHG emissions in the power sector.

The standard argument that gas-to-power is a smart climate change mitigation investment is
flawed because it is often based on the misleading use of combustion-only GHG emissions
(being 40–50% less than coal-fired power generation). A detailed supply chain assessment8
in 2019 (Roman-White et al., 2019) concluded that electricity produced from gas could
have comparable or worse GHG emissions than that produced from coal when
analyzed on a 20-year basis. There is not a standard figure for gas-to-power emissions
intensity, as methane leaks depend on regional details such as the source of gas, length and
method of transport, amount of venting and flaring, and quality of facilities.

8 This study showed that in Asia, for example, imported LNG has 2% to 53% less GHG emissions than coal,
while imported piped gas has 38% less to 30% more GHG emissions than coal, to produce the same amount of
electricity, measured in kg CO2e/MWh at 20-year global warming potential.

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Nonetheless, when making climate change investment decisions, gas-to-power should not be
compared to coal: it should be compared with alternatives such as renewables plus storage,
stand-alone storage, and green hydrogen turbines that can provide a similar function to gas
during coal phase-out. These choices release far less life-cycle GHG emissions in providing
electricity supply, and several are also more cost effective (United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe, 2021). If investments in these technologies are delayed or displaced
by gas investments, then these gas pathways may have higher cumulative GHG emissions
compared to non-gas pathways (Busch & Gimon, 2014).

Choosing gas-to-power over lower-carbon alternatives will make it harder to meet

international climate change commitments and reach net-zero by 2050.

Risk 2: There is increasing international pressure to move

away from gas due to climate impacts.
Rising awareness about the significant climate change impact of the gas value chains (which
may not be much better than coal) combined with a growing recognition of the extent of
action required to avert a climate disaster, has resulted in increased pressure to limit or phase
out gas usage in energy systems.

Important examples by category include:

• Country level: A growing number of countries have legal bans on gas exploration
or extraction (including Costa Rica, Belize, Denmark, New Zealand, France, Spain,
Portugal, Ireland and Greenland) (“Greenland Stops,” 2021; Muttitt et al., 2021).
• International institutions: The International Energy Agency has stated that in terms
of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, “there can be no new investments in oil, gas and
coal” from 2021 (Harvey, 2021). Their Net Zero by 2050 report further indicates: “Also
not needed are many of the liquefied natural gas … liquefaction facilities currently
under construction or at the planning stage” (International Energy Agency, 2021).
• Coalitions: The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance is a growing coalition of countries
working together to facilitate the managed phase-out of oil and gas production. The
Alliance also aims to elevate this phase-out conversation in international dialogues,
mobilize action, and secure commitments (Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, n.d.).
• International multilateral agreements: At the 2021 United Nations Climate
Change Conference (COP 26), over 100 countries signed the Global Methane Pledge
to reduce their overall methane emissions by 30% by 2030 compared with 2020 levels
(Vaughan, 2021).

This pressure is important for South Africa as it encourages debate and understanding on the
risks of developing a gas-to-power sector, and it contributes to several of the economic risks
described next.

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Risk 3: The failing economics linked with gas-to-power.

Gas-to-power projects face a convergence of multiple financial risks. These threaten
the competitiveness or viability of new gas projects.
Climate change is leading investors and governments to divest from gas assets, which is
pushing up the cost of finance. Examples include:

• Over 20 countries have pledged to end new direct international public finance for
unabated fossil fuel projects (including gas) by the end of 2022 (E3G, 2021).
• Banks and financing institutions have started to pull out of gas projects. For example,
in South Africa, Nedbank stopped direct financing of gas exploration in April 2021
(Just Share, 2021).
• Goldman Sachs estimated that in 2020 the cost of capital for developing LNG
projects globally had increased to around 10% compared to 3% to 5% for renewables
(Quinson, 2021).
• South Africa passed the Carbon Tax Act in 2019, which imposes a tax on the carbon
dioxide equivalent of greenhouse gas emissions (Carbon Tax Act, 2019). While the
initial rate and tax-free allowances have resulted in a low effective tax rate, this will be
reviewed in the second phase, delayed to 2026 (Godongwana, 2022).
• The divestment movement is growing in South Africa. Already, two cities (Cape
Town and Durban) and the Tutu Foundation have committed to withdrawing their
investments in fossil fuels. The movement is also expanding within universities and
churches, and campaigns are targeting retirement funds and asset managers (D. Le
Page, personal communication, November 25, 2021).
• The European Union has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
to be phased in from 2023. This is a duty on imports to the European Union based
on the amount of carbon emissions resulting from their production, and as such
encourages use of electricity sources with lower-carbon emissions than gas-to-power
(Greenberg Traurig, 2021).

Risk 4: Risk of reduced security of affordable gas supply.

Domestic supply of gas for electricity generation is uncertain in South Africa.
While there have been recent offshore discoveries, the future of the reserves has not yet been
determined, and their utilization would require significant capital expenditure. For example,
ZAR 90–100 billion (USD 5.92–6.58 billion) estimates in the case of Brulpadda, plus
significant extraction challenges to overcome due to the location of this reserve (National
Business Initiative [NBI], 2022).

There have also been discoveries of shale gas in the Karoo, but a combination of major
reductions in reserve estimates, strong civil society, community and landowner opposition,
along with serious concerns about the environmental and water impacts in this highly arid

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region means that exploitation of this potential source of gas is also unconfirmed (Industrial
Gas Users Association–Southern Africa [IGUA-SA], 2021; Scholes et al., 2016).

Long-term reliable options for importing piped gas are also not guaranteed.
In the absence of domestic gas supply, South Africa will continue to rely on imports. However,
the Pande and Temane gas fields in Mozambique are running out, and the reserve receiving
the most attention as a potential replacement is the Rovuma Basin in northern Mozambique.
But even if Rovuma is further developed and the minimum length of pipeline (1,460 km)
constructed, there is still risk of supply cut-off due to insurgency (NBI, 2022). This possibility
was demonstrated in April 2021 when Total was forced to close gas operations, withdraw staff,
and declare force majeure at their Afungi site within the Rovuma Basin area (“France’s Total
Shuts,” 2021: Smith, 2021). Reliance on a single pipeline that is vulnerable to damage or
sabotage for national supply would also threaten supply.

Gas comes with price volatility risk.

LNG imports via the sea to the ports of Richards Bay, Coega, or Saldanha have lower
investment requirements and shorter lead times compared with developing domestic
offshore gas or regional piped gas imports. However, LNG imports to South Africa are
affected by exchange rate fluctuations (unpredictable) and global LNG prices, so there is
no certainty regarding the affordability of the gas. To illustrate the possible extent of price
volatility risk, in October 2021, spot prices for LNG in Asia reached over USD 56 per
million British thermal units, an increase of almost 900% in 8 months since February 2021
(Russell, 2021). The impact of these gas prices could have been to push the Karpowership
projects tariff to about ZAR 6 (USD 0.41) per kWh, more than 10 times that of
renewables—but transparency on the tariff structures would be required to fully understand
sensitivity to gas price (Steyn, 2021). Energy price increases fuelled by the conflict between
Russia and Ukraine have further demonstrated how strategies relying on imported gas are
exposed to volatility caused by world events.

Risk 5: Stranded gas assets.

A stranded asset is an asset that has suffered from unanticipated or premature write-downs,
devaluations, or conversion to liabilities (Caldecott et al., 2014). As a result of asset stranding,
investors or governments will be unable to recover their investments. Stranding can be
caused by a number of factors related to the asset, including regulation of its impact on the
environment (including climate change), changing availability or price of resources (including
fuel), falling costs of alternatives, social pressure, consumer behaviour, new government
regulations, and litigation.

The combination of risks already mentioned in this chapter means there is a high
likelihood of new gas-to-power investments becoming stranded assets in South Africa.
Internationally, the stranding of gas-to-power infrastructure is already happening (Muttitt et
al., 2021). For example, 60% (or 14.3 GW) of total gas-fired capacity in India was declared to
be stranded in 2015 by the Ministry of Power, and in 2019, the State Bank of India indicated
that they would need to write these investments off. Furthermore, 5.3 GW of capacity was

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built but deemed stranded before it had even begun operations and nine gas plants totalling
5.7 GW were stranded within 5 years of being commissioned (Ministry of Power, 2015, 2019).

In the United States, Climate Tracker estimates that 31% of existing gas-fired capacity is
already unprofitable, and that all of the planned 28.1 GW of new gas capacity in unregulated
grid areas will be unable to recover the original investment (Sims et al., 2021). The Climate
Tracker project finance modelling results in a clear recommendation for both Europe and the
US: “building new gas plants is ill-advised and will produce projects that are unlikely
to yield returns on investment in most regions” (Sims et al., 2021).

With the peaking and balancing functions of gas being squeezed out by other technologies
(Section 4), the length of time that unsubsidized gas could compete to provide these roles
is decreasing, meaning assets could easily be stranded before reaching a break-even point.
Therefore, if investments are still made in South Africa, then the losses could be higher
compared to countries that have already developed gas-to-power as stranding may occur
earlier in project lifetimes (Bos & Gupta, 2019).

An analysis of proposed gas generators and associated infrastructure in South Africa (see
Appendix 3) is estimated to cost a minimum of ZAR 184 billion (USD 12.1 billion).9 These
assets could be stranded well before the end of their operational lives if international trends
are repeated in South Africa.

Risk 6: Creation of additional just transition burden.

The just energy transition narrative in South Africa has largely focussed on coal, and how to
manage coal phase-out so that all social partners agree it constitutes a just transition. This
process is highly complex, and, after many years of debate, there has been very limited action
despite a great deal of research, discussion, and stakeholder engagement. So, while a just
transition from coal is absolutely necessary, it clearly requires concerted policy action and
commitment of resources.

Reviewing the risks outlined above, there are many similarities between gas and coal in the
power sector: pressure to phase out, becoming economically uncompetitive, improvements in
alternatives, and asset stranding. In fact, gas has an additional risk in that affordable supply
is not secured. Therefore, investing in gas-to-power could produce a short-lived industry and
cause the next generation of gas workers and communities to face a repeat of the transition
hardships faced by the coal sector now.

9 USD:ZAR exchange rate of 15.2:1 used for March 2022 inflation adjusted figures in Appendix 3.

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4.0 Alternatives to Gas-to-Power Are

Improving
The chronic power shortages in South Africa combined with the need to decommission Eskom's
coal-fired power stations mean that a primary energy investment decision for the government is
around what new-build technologies to choose and associated grid enhancements.

When evaluating new-build generation options, the full life cycle of the projects must be
considered, and a standard measure for comparing the prices of energy produced is the
levelized cost of energy (LCOE).10 Over the lifetime of the project, total costs (including fixed
costs such as construction, operations and maintenance, and variable costs such as fuel) are
divided by the total expected electricity output. This gives a present value figure for what it will
cost to produce a unit of electricity per project.

Box 3. Gas power plants are based on two main turbine types
1. Open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs): A simple combustion process where the
heated gas drives the turbine to generate power, and residual heat is exhausted
to the atmosphere.
2. Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs): A more complex combustion process
where residual heat is recovered and used to produce steam that drives a
secondary turbine to produce extra electricity.

CCGTs are typically used for bulk supply as they are more efficient (producing more
electricity from the same amount of gas), resulting in lower electricity prices, but
are best run continuously or for long periods and take about 30 minutes to start up.
OCGTs are usually used for peaking, and although less efficient with higher electricity
prices, can respond quickly with rapid start-up times of less than 5 minutes. OCGTs
are typically used for balancing and backup, but CCGTs could be used if the minimum
timeframes (start-up, uptime, and downtime) allow for it (International Renewable
Energy Agency, 2019).

A potential source of confusion is that gas turbines can be built to run on liquid fuels,
but the name stays the same. South Africa has six utility-scale OCGTs to complement
the coal fleet when required, but these all currently run on diesel and would require a
conversion process to use gas.

Gas-to-power is being functionally outcompeted by other technologies for new-build

projects.

10 While investors themselves use different metrics to assess profitability of their projects, LCOE is well suited to
high-level comparison of the cost of technologies in general terms. LCOE calculations include assumptions for
variables that may be project specific, such as cost of finance or land, or could be linked to systemic factors such as
the merit order of generators and the frequency and duration of peaks. As such, LCOE is no replacement for either
project-specific financial analysis or system-wide modelling. Bearing these factors in mind, LCOE is still a useful
measure to compare the cost of technologies that can fulfil the same function or provide the same value proposition
within the system.

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4.1 Bulk Supply: Renewables can provide cheaper

electricity than gas
Renewables are the least-cost option to address the supply shortage, meet new demand, and
replace the coal fleet as it is retired. By 2016, new renewables (wind and solar) in South
Africa were already estimated as 56% and 78% cheaper than electricity from new CCGTs
and OCGTs respectively, based on LCOE analysis (Wright et al., 2017). In the subsequent 5
years, renewables prices have continued to drop widening their advantage over gas, which is a
mature technology and cost reductions have not occurred.

Figure 2. LCOE estimates for South Africa 2020

3.50
expected to continue to
drop further in the future
3.00

2.50
ZAR/kWh

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0
Gas Gas Pumped Battery storage Solar PV Wind
CCGT OCGT storage (Li-Ion 3hr)

Source: Roff et al., 2020; Wright & Calitz, 2020. The gas price assumption in 2019 was ZAR 147 (USD
10.17) per GJ, so at higher gas prices the LCOE for gas turbines will increase.

In October 2021, the fifth bid window of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
Procurement Programme yielded weighted average fully indexed prices of ZAR 0.5 (USD
0.034) per kWh and ZAR 0.43 (USD 0.029) per kWh for wind and solar PV, respectively
(DMRE, 2021a), even lower than the 2020 estimates in Figure 2. Conversely, research by
RethinkX suggests that gas LCOE estimates should increase (Dorr & Seba, 2021). As gas is
outcompeted into the future, less electricity will be bought from gas projects over their lifetime
(unless purchase quantity is contractually locked in) which increases the lifetime unit cost of
what is produced (Dorr & Seba, 2021).

In addition to lower electricity costs and emissions, alternatives like renewables

provide more employment than gas. Solar PV and off- and onshore wind together
create almost 10 times more jobs per year per MW during construction, installation, and
manufacturing and 11 times more jobs per MW in operation and maintenance, than gas-to-
power (Teske et al., 2019).

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4.2 Peaking: Energy storage prices have already dropped

sufficiently to replace gas
Improvements in battery technology and dramatic decline in prices internationally have
already reached the point where batteries have an economic advantage over gas for peaking
functions. In just 2 years, from 2018 to 2020, the LCOE benchmark for utility-scale battery
storage (4-hour duration) halved to USD 150 per MWh (“Scale-up of Solar and Wind,”
2020), which equals the lowest international LCOE range for gas peakers (Figure 3). Research
in Australia has calculated large-scale battery storage LCOE at 30% cheaper than gas peakers
(Clean Energy Council, 2021), and in 2018 California started replacing gas peakers with
battery storage (Bade, 2018).

As seen in Figure 2, South Africa echoes this trend with 3-hour battery storage LCOE
estimates already 30% cheaper than gas OCGTs for peaking. In 2019, the Council
for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) found that the modelling requirement for gas
turbines in the energy mix could be displaced by batteries in South Africa assuming continued
cost reduction in the future (Klein et al., 2019). By 2020, the outputs of modelling scenarios
from the University of Cape Town to meet Paris Agreement climate goals were to only build
battery storage to complement renewables to 2050 based on these significant cost reductions
(McCall et al., 2021). From a technical perspective, there are specific rare occasions when
some form of flexible and dispatchable generation or longer-term storage capacity may be
required in a future energy system (Section 6), but for the vast majority of the year, this is no
longer required for peaking.

By LCOE, pumped storage is even cheaper than batteries, but it has long build
times and geographical constraints that must be considered as this option is
pursued in South Africa. Furthermore, the international price range for combined solar
PV with storage projects, which can also provide peaking power, is also less than the lowest
in the range for gas peakers (Figure 3).

While batteries have shown the fastest storage cost reduction, other options, such as
gravitational storage with weights, are also improving rapidly and could be cost competitive
with battery storage depending on the design and size relative to the application (Morstyn &
Botha, 2021).

Internationally, energy storage is seeing massive investment in research and development,

with global deployment increasing by 62% in 2020 alone (Xu, 2021). As a result, there are
also significant advances in addressing some of the environmental concerns with lithium-ion
batteries, such as the recyclability of components, along with improvements in other battery
technologies such vanadium redox flow systems. Based on this development and growth, it
is expected that batteries and other emerging storage options will continue to improve and
undercut gas for peaking power.

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Figure 3. International, unsubsidized LCOE ranges for utility-scale PV plus storage

systems vs. gas peakers

250

USD/MWh 200

150

100

50

0
Utility Scale PV (50 MW) Gas Peaking
and Storage (200 MWh)

Source: Lazard 2021a, 2021b. In the graph, “Utility-Scale PV and Storage” refers to an energy storage
system designed to be paired with large solar PV facilities to better align timing of PV generation with
system demand, reduce solar curtailment, and provide grid support.

4.3 Balancing and Backup: Alternatives to gas are

improving and decreasing in price
Integrating renewables into the energy mix can be done with a range of measures. Building
new flexible and dispatchable generators to counter the variable nature of renewables is only
one of the options. Balancing the system can be achieved by managing supply,
managing demand, energy efficiency, storing energy, and grid improvements. As seen
in Figure 4, many of these options are cheaper and more appropriate to invest in when there is
a low level of renewable energy in the system, as is the case in South Africa. Furthermore,
international work to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy systems has resulted in
continual improvements in the understanding, design, availability, and cost of these balancing
measures, a trend that is expected to continue as research and development increase.

Given the rapid advances in energy storage

and grid integration technologies, there
is debate about whether flexible and Where independent power system
dispatchable generators will even be required modelling still includes gas to provide
in future energy systems. In South Africa,
flexible and dispatchable power,
where independent power system modelling
it is mainly as a reserve for rare
still includes gas to provide flexible and
dispatchable power, it is mainly as a reserve situations (such as prolonged and
for rare situations (such as prolonged unusual weather patterns) when the
and unusual weather patterns) when the combination of other measures may
combination of other measures may be be unable to meet demand.
unable to meet demand (more in Section 6).

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However, there are other technologies that could directly fulfill this role, if it is required, in
the future. Green hydrogen is one example that is receiving enormous attention, including in
South Africa (Department of Science and Innovation [DSI], 2021a, 2021b).

Figure 4. Measures to integrate renewables into the grid

Increasing capital cost

Storage

Geographic dispersion (transmission

infrastructure, interconnection)

Flexible generation
(improve plant ramping)

Demand response/
smart grids

Time-of-day pricing

Market design
& governance

Improved data
& forecasting

Increasing RE penetration

Supply side Demand side Grid enhancement

Source: Adapted from Muttitt et al., 2021.

Green hydrogen is the term used for the hydrogen produced from the electrolysis
of water into oxygen and hydrogen using renewable (green) electricity. The world-
class renewable resources in South Africa result in the country being well positioned for
production of green hydrogen, which can also be used to run gas turbines (DSI, 2021b).
Mitsubishi Power and General Electric are already converting existing natural gas power
plants to run off hydrogen (Modern Power Systems, 2021). Other companies are working
on reducing the costs and inefficiencies of hydrogen turbines so that integrated systems of
renewables, storage and green hydrogen can meet energy demand without producing any
net GHG emissions (see, e.g., Siemens Energy, n.d.).

Green hydrogen may become a cost-competitive power sector fuel during the 2030s (NBI,
2021). In recognition of this the Hydrogen Society Roadmap calls to “[r]evise the IRP to
include hydrogen gas for generation” between 2025–2030. (DSI, 2021a). The arrival of cost-
competitive hydrogen turbines could bring forward the date when gas is displaced by a green
fuel and ceases to have any legitimate role in the power sector.

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5.0 The South African Power System Can

Meet Demand to 2035 Without Gas Supply
In recent years, Government has been increasingly vocal in its support for gas. The Minister
of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, has stated that the “[a]cceleration of
gas development projects will be crucial in the country’s just energy transition” (Mantashe,
2021a). However, such assertions have not been accompanied by robust evidence, and, based
on the risks presented in this report, the opposite may be true.

Gas-to-power has often been promoted as being lower carbon than coal, able to provide
peaking power, and, being flexible and dispatchable, it can balance renewables in the energy
systems. However, given recent technological and economic trends, these characteristics are
no longer the sole preserve of gas, nor is gas the cheapest option. Moreover, decision-makers
seem not to be adequately considering how the evolving risks associated with gas-to-power
and the improvements in alternatives will alter the optimal investment choices for a least-cost,
decarbonized energy sector considerably.

5.1 Bulk Supply: Gas is not required as a bridging fuel to a

renewable energy-dominated system
The gas industry has long proposed that their product can act as a “bridge fuel” that facilitates
the transition from high- to low-carbon energy systems (Muttitt et al., 2021). This notion is
now obsolete as unsubsidized renewable energy in the form of wind and solar has already
been successful developed in South Africa, and is significantly cheaper than any gas-to-
power options, in addition to the benefits of higher job creation per unit of energy, reduced
environmental impact, reduced GHG emissions and not being subject to fuel price volatility
(Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam et al., 2020). There is no need for gas
as a bridging fuel for bulk electricity supply.

5.2 Peaking, Balancing, and Backup: Gas supply is not

necessary until 2035, if ever
Firstly, as LCOE estimates in South Africa show, for short-duration situations batteries are
cheaper than gas OCGTs (Figure 2). This indicates a lower-cost and lower-emissions route
to providing some peaking power requirements. Furthermore, as the international LCOE
benchmark of renewables plus storage is cheaper than gas peakers (Figure 3) this could
become an option in South Africa. Even where the RMI4P rules were seemingly tailored to
favour gas projects (amaBhungane, 2021), the lowest bid price still came from a solar and
battery storage project (DMRE, n.d.).

Secondly, Eskom already has 2,724 MW of pumped storage (Eskom, 2021). Due to the poor
performance of the Eskom coal fleet, this pumped storage is not always fully utilized, as there
has not always been adequate surplus capacity to fill the dams (Creamer, 2022). A sufficiently
rapid build rate of renewables could replace decommissioned coal capacity to meet electricity

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demand and also produce enough surplus to allow for pumped storage to be optimally
available for peaking requirements (Mallinson, 2020).

5.2.1 Liquid Fuels Can Do the Job as a Last Resort

An optimized build rate of renewables and storage will allow the future system to meet the
peaking requirements for the vast majority of the time. The only exception in this future
system could be during a long lull in renewables output, which may only occur 1 week in a
year. For these very infrequent cases, there is already 3,414 MW of nominal OCGT capacity
(see Appendix 1). Modelling analysis by Meridian Economics in 2020 concluded that these
facilities and some additional OCGT capacity, run within the historical OCGT liquid fuel use
range, can provide all peaking and balancing requirements in all realistic mitigation scenarios
for the next 15 years (Roff et al., 2020). Therefore, there is no need to make an investment
decision now about new gas supply from a power supply perspective.

In the context of growing risks linked to gas and improving alternatives, the
option to delay making a decision on gas supply for the power sector for at
least 10 years is of great value. It avoids locking the power sector into another
fossil fuel now.

Running OCGTs on diesel may be more expensive than gas, but the objective is to develop
the system so that OCGTs (regardless of fuel) are used as a last resort and for a small fraction
of total generation. A full cost analysis11 of continued use of OCGTs on diesel versus gas
would need to factor in all the capital costs of establishing gas-to-power and gas supply
infrastructure (whereas the liquid fuel infrastructure is a sunk cost). Given the number of
hours run for these generators the case for large-scale fuel supply infrastructure investment is
likely to be weak.

In addition, adding a new fossil fuel and investing in infrastructure at this stage of the
energy transition creates a lock-in risk. The cost of this lock-in is hard to estimate, but, as
infrastructure is built, there is pressure to use and expand it even when lower-cost options
are available. This pressure leads to additional costs for the energy system and the consumers
who pay the bills. Furthermore, the logical maximum timeframe for OCGTs to operate on
either diesel or gas is limited by the availability of commercial alternative turbine fuels (like
green hydrogen) or the emergence of other flexible and dispatchable generators. There is
considerable uncertainty around when this may occur, but it is probably long before the end
of the technical lifetime of new gas infrastructure.

11 A GHG emissions analysis would need to include methane leaks on the value chain. As with the comparison
between coal and gas, it could lead to minimal difference.

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5.2.2 Excellent, Complementary Wind and Solar Resources

Decrease the Need for Balancing in the Short Term.
The nature of wind and solar resources in South Africa means that if the system is suitably
developed (rapid rollout of renewables and storage) there should be limited need for any
additional flexible and dispatchable generators at VRE penetration12 levels of 15%–30%.

In South Africa, the penetration of VRE for electricity supply is only about 5%
(Section 1). In general, increasing renewables penetration up to rates of about 15% can be
fairly easily managed by changes to operational practices (International Energy Agency,
2017) and the types of grid enhancement and demand interventions shown in Figure 4.
In addition, South Africa has some of the best renewable resources in the world, with an
extensive study13 revealing two key factors. First, solar has nearly no seasonal variability, and
the daily aggregated peaks of wind and solar generation complement each other, making grid
integration and meeting demand easier. Second, by optimally distributing VRE across the
entire country, a 20%–30% share of VRE can still provide a reasonably smooth output
without significant short-term fluctuations (Knorr et al., 2016).

This smoother output makes it easier to integrate with the existing coal fleet (which has slow
ramping times) and also allows for VRE to recharge interconnected energy storage facilities
in a more predictable way. The net result being that there could be a minimal requirement for
new flexible and dispatchable generators up to 30% levels of VRE penetration.

If the IRP 2019 is implemented on time, South Africa will only pass 30% penetration levels
of renewables after 2030 (DMRE, 2019a), but it is widely understood that the pace of
renewables capacity rollout must increase significantly.

The arguments raised in Section 4 and 5 are summarized in the figure below.

12 In this context, penetration refers to percentage of electricity generated, not percentage installed capacity.
13 5×5 km spatial resolution of entire country, 15-minute time resolution, 5 years of data.

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Figure 5. Economic case and technical need for gas turbines and gas supply in the
power system
Is there an economic case for new gas turbines?

BULK SUPPLY PEAKING BALANCING & BACKUP

No. No. Becoming increasingly uneconomic.
CCGTs already OCGTs outcompeted Introducing other cheaper or
outcompeted by by renewables plus cost-competitive methods for integrating
lower-carbon storage and utility- renewables reduces the need for flexible
options of wind scale batteries. and dispatchable generators (at a specific
and solar PV. Price reduction trend level of renewables penetration).
of alternatives set to Costs are decreasing for alternative
continue. flexible and dispatchable generators (such
as green hydrogen technology) and
long-duration storage.

Is there a technical need for new gas turbines?

BULK SUPPLY PEAKING/BALANCING & BACKUP

No. Increasingly outcompeted by alternatives.
In the short term, while renewables penetration is still low: Recent
advances in energy storage capabilities decrease the need for new
turbines before ~2030. Further research and revised modelling is required
to better understand the scale of disruption caused by these advances.
In the longer term, when renewable penetration is high: Future
improvements in energy storage, decentralized systems and renewables
integration will further reduce the need for new turbines relative to
current predictions, potentially to zero.

Is there a technical need for building new gas supply infrastructure? ← e.g., LNG terminals
and pipelines

BULK SUPPLY PEAKING/BALANCING & BACKUP

No. Not prior to 2035, if ever.
Pre-2035, optimized models that do build OCGTs have also shown that
the existing liquid fuel infrastructure is sufficient to supply fuel because
these OCGTs are run so infrequently.
Post-2035, alternative fuels like green hydrogen may be cost competitive,
or the need for any further flexible and dispatchable generators may have
been negated by advances in long-term storage and grid technologies.

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Gas Pressure

6.0 Focus on Short-Term Priorities and

Knowledge Gaps

6.1 Long-Term Vision to 2050

The critical point for this section is that we do not need to solve the details of the 2050
energy mix now, though we do need to avoid costly blind alleys. Technology is evolving so
rapidly that it is impossible to predict the optimal pathway that far into the future. Models
to 2050 are just a guideline based on current assumptions, which will change over time.
However, before looking at what to do in the short term, it is useful to understand some of the
parameters that influence planning and decision making in this context.

A large and growing number of international studies support the technical feasibility and cost
effectiveness of 100% renewable-electricity systems (Brown et al., 2018). In South Africa,
decarbonization pathways modelling to 2050 by Oyewo et al. (2019) concluded that “a 100%
renewable energy system is the least-cost, least-water intensive, least-GHG-emitting
and most job-rich option for the South African energy system.”

Broadly speaking, 100% renewables scenarios are based on one of two situations: 1)
renewables, storage, and flexible and dispatchable generators that run on fuels like green
hydrogen or 2) entirely on renewables and storage where the capacities are overbuilt to handle
variability.

In South Africa, there is not yet consensus

among independent power system modellers Where new OCGTs are still included
on whether it is possible to develop the in optimized, realistic models up to
electricity system to 2050 in a way that
2050 it is only to provide backup for
is completely free of new flexible and
long lull periods in VRE beyond the
dispatchable generators
storage and recharging capabilities
On the one hand, where new OCGTs are in those models.
still included in optimized14, realistic models
up to 2050 it is only to provide backup for
long lull periods in VRE beyond the storage
and recharging capabilities in those models. The key point is that this only happens on very
rare occasions, which leads to several important outcomes (Roff et al., 2020).

• Annual electricity output from OCGTs is at most a tiny fraction of all electricity
generated in ambitious renewables pathways (typically <1% total system output), and,
consequently, annual fuel use is very low.
• This low level of utilization of OCGTs is why the system can be developed without gas
supply until 2035 because it still falls within existing liquid fuel supply infrastructure
capabilities.

14 For the model to be optimized, renewables and storage must be built at the required rate.

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Gas Pressure

• The installed capacity requirement for OCGTs increases with increasing penetration
in renewables (which is currently very low).
• Building a large fleet of CCGTs to run at high capacity is not an optimized modelling
outcome.

On the other hand, there are models based only on renewables and storage (Dorr &
Seba, 2020). For example, in Australia, the state of South Australia has been setting length
records for supplying all electricity demand with wind and solar coupled with lithium ion
battery systems, and the state plans to be completely fossil fuel-free by 2025 (Bowyer &
Kuiper, 2021).

Facilitated by the massive storage-related changes in the last few years, an alternative IRP
has recently been produced that only builds wind, solar, and storage to 2040. In addition to
meeting yearly electricity demand (~230 TWh) at a price below Eskom’s current wholesale
rate, the recommended overbuild of renewables capacity will provide surplus electricity (~460
TWh) at near-zero-marginal-cost.15 This very cheap “superpower,” in excess of conventional
demand, has many potential socio-economic advantages. It could provide electricity to
low-income households, promote electrification of vehicles, produce green hydrogen, and
increase economic competitiveness of existing activities (Creamer, 2021). While this proposal
presents a deviation from “conventional” power system thinking and requires verification, the
enormous potential costs and social benefits mean it must be further researched.

6.2 Planning to 2030

A key consideration for infrastructure planning decisions is that the uncertainty of predictions
increases over the modelling time period. Therefore, action should be taken on the most
logical choices in the short to medium terms (say to 2030), and then to continually monitor
and regularly readjust the longer-term plans over time.16

The disruptive changes in the energy sector since around 2016 have started to push gas
turbines out of power sector modelling requirements. Even during the evolution of the
government IRP from 2016 to 2019, the recommended gas turbine build (OCGT or CCGT)
from 2020 to 2030 dropped by 76% (See Figure 6).

In addition to new build, there are also plans to repower or convert existing coal plants or
liquid fueled OCGTs to gas. While the risks of gas-to-power investment (Section 3) still apply
to these re-purposing plans, the capital costs and plant efficiencies differ from new builds. In
the context of disruptive change, these re-purposing plans should not be assumed as prudent,
and must be rigorously reassessed in comparison to improvements in alternatives.

15 The cost of producing surplus units of electricity in these circumstances has almost no impact on the total
production costs that were used to determine the price for electricity to meet demand.
16 This is the way the IEP was meant to be approached but has not happened.

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Gas Pressure

Figure 6. Capacity additions 2020 to 2030 in the development of the IRP 2019

14,000

New build capacity (MW) 12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
IRP 2016 IRP 2018 IRP 2019
draft draft

Gas turbines Storage

Source: Department of Energy, 2016b; 2018, DMRE, 2019a.

An important question now emerges: Is there still a need to build new OCGTs (liquid
fuel or gas) as a capacity reserve in the short to medium term, for renewables
penetration rates of 15-30%? The same question applies to re-purposing existing coal
plants to gas. The very recent changes in utility-scale storage capabilities and dramatic price
reductions since 2019 mean that modelling outputs now will be different from work done in
2020. Coupled to this are significant shifts in the potential for residential, commercial, and
municipal level energy services to alter requirements from utility-scale facilities.

Confidential interviews with several modelling teams in South Africa revealed a few
knowledge gaps:

• Can an overbuild of utility-scale renewables and energy storage capacity in

combination with existing OCGTs and pumped storage now meet system demand
requirements at least cost and until when?
• What would the cost premium be, if any, of not building any OCGTs until 2030?
• Is there still a level of renewables penetration prior to 2030/35 where some form of
new flexible and dispatchable generation is required?

Similar to delaying a decision on gas supply, being able to hold off on building new OCGTs
(or converting existing coal/liquid fuel plants to gas) is also of value as it allows South Africa
to observe how the suite of other technologies complements renewables advances. Storage is
required in any event, and front-loading the rollout has the benefit of growing the industry
quicker. However, for all these questions, robust analysis is required. Given the low level of
renewables penetration in 2022, there is certainly no need for new OCGTs for a year or two,
which gives time to answer these questions.

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Gas Pressure

From the analysis presented in the report emerge a few key short-term priorities and
knowledge gaps (Figure 7) as a low-risk way to develop the power sector amidst a disruptive
period in energy technology shifts.

Figure 7. A low-risk approach to address power shortages and the rush for gas

Short-term priorities

Significantly increase rate of Increase rate of storage

renewable capacity additions. capacity additions.

Implement: Develop bettering understanding of:

1. Renewables grid integration techniques 1. Role and timeframes for green hydrogen
2. Transmission network upgrades in power sector.
2. Potential for overbuild of renewables and
storage to generate “superpower”

Gas recommendations

Do not use power sector as an Pause plans for the development

anchor tenant for gas demand now. of new gas turbines.

A decision on whether any gas supply Fully investigate the short-term need for
infrastructure is required for the power new OCGTs (or conversions to gas) given
sector post-2035 can be made in ~2030 the significant recent changes in storage
based on available technologies and costs. and renewables integration.
CCGTs run at high-capacity factor are not
rational.

Source: Author diagram.

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Gas Pressure

7.0 Conclusions and Recommendations

Evidence provided in this report indicates a shrinking role for gas in the power sector linked to
increasing risks and improving alternatives, coupled with the ability to delay a gas decision and
the possible advantages of significantly scaling up renewables and storage rollout.

Despite this, the South African government seems to be increasingly supportive of kick-
starting a large-scale gas-to-power program. The DMRE rhetoric around gas, the extent of
potential gas-to-power projects (mainly CCGTs) and the nature of the Karpowership deal
suggest that gas plans could be pushed for bulk supply at high-capacity factor.

This divergence does not seem rational, and the onus of proof rests with the government to
prove that any suggested gas-to-power investments are still sound. Given the current data, this
appears unlikely.

7.1 There Are Significant Negative Outcomes of

Developing a Large Gas-to-Power System Now
The growing risks of developing a large gas-to-power sector at this stage could lead to
several negative outcomes for South Africa, where the severity is correlated to the extent of
investment.

Adding more fossil fuels to the electricity sector uses up the carbon budget, making it harder
for South Africa to meet international climate change commitments.

If gas assets are built and then become stranded, they may continue to operate even when
cheaper, superior alternatives are available because the capital is already sunk. This type of
lock-in can result in pressure from workers, investors, and companies on the government to
introduce subsidies to protect the incumbent industry. These subsidies divert funds away from
other projects with better socio-economic metrics and cause an industry to persist even when
it is economically unviable. This is already happening with Eskom, which is locked-in to an
uneconomic and unsustainable coal fleet and still receives bailouts (Bridle et al., 2022).

Where gas assets become central to economic activity in a region, there could be stranded
economies. For example, Mossel Bay (see Appendix 1) is already heavily reliant on the gas-
to-liquid (GTL) facility, but without a viable and affordable feedstock replacement for the
depleted offshore gas reserves, the future of the entire municipality is uncertain.

Assuming the current trends continue and gas is further undercut in the power sector by
renewables, storage, and grid enhancements, then without subsidies, the consumer will end up
paying through higher-than-necessary electricity prices. The extent of tariff increases relative
to an optimal system will depend on how frequently gas is used (capacity factor) and how
many alternative low-carbon projects are displaced.

IISD.org 26
Gas Pressure

Figure 8. Risks of developing a gas-to-power sector in South Africa from 2022

onwards

Input variables Create further Potential negative

and risks interdependent risks outcomes for electricity
sector and consumers

GHG emissions of International gas Gas-to-power lock-in:

gas-to-power phase-out pressure • GHG emissions reduce
value chain carbon budget in energy
sector
Financial risks: • Future government
reduced funding, subsidies or bailouts to
Improving keep uncompetitive sector
measures for grid increase cost of
capital, carbon tax, going
integration of Stranded
renewables trade taxes, etc. • Delays or crowds-out
assets uptake of superior
alternatives even though
Additional they cost less and better
Economic risks: future just for climate, environment
Direct alternatives gas functions in and society
to gas improving transition
electricity sector burden
and decreasing in already outcompeted
cost or expected based on Divergence from optimal
trends emissions and least cost
pathway:
Reliance on gas • Higher than necessary
imports, future Reduced security of prices for electricity
domestic supply affordable gas supply, consumers, especially if
uncertain price volatility of LNG gas used at high capacity
factor

Gas-to-power sector faces

a repeat of just transition
challenges currently
experienced by coal sector

7.2 Bring Renewable Energy Capacity Online as Fast as

Possible and Complement With Storage as Required
As the least-cost, lowest carbon supply option with shortest lead times, renewables must form
the basis of all new generation infrastructure to address current power shortages, enable
optimal pumped storage usage and allow for ambitious coal phase-out. Furthermore, the rate
of capacity addition must be scaled up
significantly from the current IRP 2019. This
is the most future-proof way to address Renewables must form the basis of
load-shedding. all new generation infrastructure to
The negative impacts of the delays in
address current power shortages,
the renewables program to date can be enable optimal pumped storage
countered by ensuring a smooth and usage and allow for ambitious coal
continuous rollout from now on. In parallel, phase-out.
sufficient resources must be allocated to

IISD.org 27
Gas Pressure

investigating how other forms of ownership of renewable energy can successfully be integrated
in South Africa.

Other urgent areas of action include prioritizing energy efficiency, actively working on
reducing bottlenecks, such as the need for transmission grid expansion and implementing
other measures to integrate renewables. The repurposing of Eskom coal power stations
should also be directed toward renewables and storage only instead of gas.

Start building pumped storage options immediately, as they have the longest lead time,
while increasing other storage capacity at a rate that ensures sufficient peaking and
balancing to minimize or negate the need for OCGT use.

7.3 Electricity Planning Needs to Be Updated to Reflect

Current Trends and Risks: A new IRP is needed.
A revised IRP should be a collaborative effort between DMRE and other stakeholders
(including leading research institutes and think tanks). All modelling data and assumptions
should be made publicly available. A method for factoring risks into modelling and policy
adjustment needs to be developed and published. Resources must be devoted to developing
a holistic, integrated energy plan for South Africa where the role of gas outside of the power
sector can be evaluated.

7.4 Pause the Development of a Gas-to-Power Sector

Since gas supply is not necessary until 2035 in the power sector (if the system is optimally
developed from now) it is logical to avoid unnecessary lock-in to another high-carbon fuel.
Therefore, wait until 2030 to assess if any post-2035 role for gas exists.

Given the increasing risks of gas, improving alternatives, and the narrow window before gas
would need to be phased out to reach net-zero by 2050 (or is outcompeted by green fuels), it
is not rational to rush into building an extensive fleet of CCGTs that the government seem to
be planning.

In terms of the debate about the need to build more OCGTs (liquid fuel or gas), provided
there is a rapid rollout of renewables and an appropriate ratio of storage, there are a few years’
leeway to properly investigate how the rise of storage affects the short-term need for more
flexible and dispatchable generators.

IISD.org 28
Gas Pressure

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Appendix 1. Status Quo of Gas-to-Power

in South Africa
Figure A1. Infrastructure and reserves linked to existing gas or possible future gas
projects
ZIMBABWE
MOZAMBIQUE

Pande and Temane

gas fields
BOTSWANA

ROMPCO
pipeline
(865 km)

Maputo
Secunda
NAMIBIA

Richards Bay
Lily pipeline
(573 km)
Kudu
Avon IPP Town or city
(670 MW)
Durban Strategic harbors for LNG import
Ankerlig Karoo Basin: Offshore gas fields,
(1327 MW) Shale gas exploration in commercial operation, virtually depleted
Ibhubesi
Offshore gas discoveries,
Port Rex
(171 MW) not in commercial operation
Gourikwa Dedisa IPP Existing gas pipeline
(335 MW)
(740 MW)
Saldanha Bay Power stations: plans could include
Acacia repowering or conversion to gas
East London
(171 MW)
Older Eskom coal power stations
Cape Town Gqeberha/
Mossel Bay Coega OCGTs (nominal capacity)

EM and FA gas fields Synfuel production

Brulpadda and Luiperd
(Block 9) GTL, PetroSA
(Block 11B/12B)
Essentially depleted
GTL + CTL, Sasol

Notes: GTL is gas-to-liquid. CTL is coal-to-liquid.

Source: Author, with information from “Development studies progressing,” 2021; DMRE, 2021b; Eskom,
2021; IGUA-SA, 2021; Petroleum Agency of SA Map, 2022.

1. Gas is not yet used for utility-scale electricity production. Gas use is
almost entirely for industry, mainly the production of synthetic fuels
The majority of gas use in South Africa (~61% in 2020) is to produce synthetic liquid fuels
via GTL processes and to produce other compounds via gas-to-chemical applications. Other
industrial applications and gas retail account for the remaining demand, with household gas
requirements at less than 0.6% of overall consumption (NBI, 2022).

By contrast, in sub-Saharan Africa, power generation accounted for 52% of natural gas use
in 2020 (Muttitt et al., 2021). A draft regional gas master plan for the Southern African
Development Community estimates power generation at ~60% of gas demand in 2050 (Africa
International Advisors, 2021).

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2. Gas supply relies on overland piped imports from Mozambique, but

future supply options (domestic offshore or land imported) remain on
the drawing board.

Domestic supply
Offshore gas wells have supplied the GTL refinery operated by PetroSA in Mossel Bay for
over 20 years, but these sites are virtually depleted. The future of PetroSA relies on finding
affordable feedstock as supply from Block 9 stopped in 2020 (IGUA-SA, 2021). The more
recent discoveries of Ibhubesi, Brulpadda, and Luiperd are potential sources of domestic
offshore gas, but the earliest production start date (if extraction commences) is suggested as
2028-2030 (DMRE, 2021b; NBI, 2022). Initial over-estimates of shale gas reserves in the
Karoo Basin of 485 trillion cubic feet (tcf) have been revised down to 13 tcf (de Kock et al.,
2017). While Parliament has authorized the use of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to exploit
these potential reserves (Regulations for petroleum exploration and production, 2015),
the technical fracking regulations have not been drafted and draft water use regulations for
fracking are still being finalized (as of March 2022).

Imports
The Pande and Temane gas fields in Mozambique are the only major sources of gas supply in
South Africa, but these reserves are also expected to decline from 2025 (IGUA-SA, 2021). Of
the potential reserves in the Southern African Development Community region, the Rovuma
Basin in far northern Mozambique has received the most attention as a possible future source
for South Africa imports (NBI, 2022). If South Africa were to import LNG, then Saldanha,
Coega, and Richards Bay have been identified as strategic harbours.

The company Sasol Gas supplies 90% of South African demand using the Mozambique
imports (DMRE, 2021b).

3. There is no existing infrastructure for large-scale LNG importation

via sea. Existing infrastructure for inland piped gas is limited to three
provinces (Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and Kwazulu Natal).
The Republic of Mozambique Pipeline Company (ROMPCO) pipeline brings gas from
Mozambique to the Sasol site in Secunda. This hub is linked to Richards Bay and Durban
via the Lily pipeline and to parts of Gauteng and Mpumalanga via the Sasol Gas pipeline
network. Gas storage facilities are very limited in capacity (DMRE, 2021b). In November
2021, a request for information (RFI) was released by the Central Energy Fund to assess the
potential for building an LNG import terminal at Coega, which would be the first in South
Africa (Mills, 2021).

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4. Several important gas-related plans and policies are still under

development, require updating or have not been implemented. Overall,
the policy framework is incomplete and insufficient to guide sectoral
development.
Appendix 2 lists some of the national government legislation as well as planning and
implementation documents relevant for developing a gas-to-power sector.

Several components have been in progress for many years and are still not finalized (as of
March 2022). For example, work on the Gas Amendment Bill started in 2012 and on the
GMP before 2014. Despite a legal requirement in the National Energy Act of 2008 for an IEP,
the 2016 draft has still not been completed. The absence of an overarching, holistic plan for
energy in South Africa is partly responsible for the lack of alignment between subsector plans
and the resulting policy uncertainty.

Other plans that have been completed are widely viewed by energy analysts as suboptimal,
outdated, or no longer fit for purpose. For example, the IRP 2019, which covers electricity
infrastructure planning, has been demonstrated to cost more and produce higher emissions
than alternative least-cost or optimized plans (Wright & Calitz, 2020). Many stakeholders
are calling for a revised IRP with updated assumptions, full access to assumption data, and a
modelling process that does not limit or force in certain technologies at the input stage.

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Appendix 2. Policy Framework

Table A1. Some of the main components of regulation, planning, and implementation
of activities linked to developing a gas-to-power sector

Key points related to developing a gas-to-power sector

Document (year) (including gas supply)

Legislation

National Environmental Requires gas exploration and production to get

Management Act (1998) environmental authorization

Gas Act (2001) and • Aims to:

subsequent proposed • Provide a national regulatory framework for the orderly
amendments in the Gas and environmentally sustainable development of the
Amendment Bill (2021) gas industry.
• Facilitate gas infrastructure development and
investment, including in the gas-to-power sector.
• Covers unconventional gases such as coalbed methane,
landfill gas, and shale gas.
• Defines the functions of The National Energy Regulator of
South Africa (NERSA) in relation to gas, including tariffs
and maximum charges.17
• Gas licensing and registration.
• Assigns powers to the Minister (including determinations)
to direct development of new gas infrastructure and
mandates the Minister to develop a GMP.

Upstream Petroleum Aims to:

Resources Development • Contribute to the development of petroleum resources.
Bill (2021)
• “Provide equitable access to and sustainable
development” of South Africa’s petroleum resources.
• Contribute to active state and Black persons’
participation in developing the country’s petroleum
resources.
• Provide for security of tenure for the exploration and
production of gas.
• Give effect to Section 24 of the constitution by ensuring
that gas development is conducted in an ecologically
sustainable manner.
• Accelerate the exploration and production of gas
development.
• Promote employment, skills development, and technology
transfer through the development of this industry.

17 Gas charges (in ZAR/GJ) include a gas price (for gas molecules) and gas tariffs (for network services like
transmission).

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Gas Pressure

Key points related to developing a gas-to-power sector

Document (year) (including gas supply)

Carbon Tax Act (2019) • Places a tax on carbon dioxide-equivalent GHG emissions
above a threshold level.
• Initial rate of ZAR 120 (USD 8.31) per tonne increased
by inflation plus 2% until end of Phase 1 (revised to
December 31, 2025).
• Tax-free emissions allowances ranging from 60%–95%,
with natural gas receiving a 95% allowance.
• Phase 2 from January 1, 2026, will review rates and
allowances (Godongwana, 2022).

Plans, programs, and implementation (including those at draft or proposed stage)

National Development • Calls for greater share of natural gas in energy mix.
Plan (2012) • Investments priorities include: constructing infrastructure
to import LNG, exploration for domestic gas reserves
(including shale and coal bed methane) (NPC, 2012).

Draft Integrated Energy • Core modelling scenarios assumed shale gas in

Plan (IEP) (2016), still not Karoo would be abundant, economically recoverable
finalized by March 2022 and competitive (cheaper than imports), resulting in
The National Energy Act increasing proportions of gas for electricity generation up
(2008) legally mandates to 2050.
the Minister of Energy to • Sees potential for both CCGTs and OCGTs in the
annually develop, review, electricity sector. Assumption of 70% state-owned
and publish an IEP. This enterprise build, 30% independent power producers (IPPs).
has not happened once • Recommends research and funding for underground coal
since the Act came into gasification projects.
effect. • Encourages the development of enabling legal and
regulatory framework for offshore gas exploration.
• Switching from electricity to gas for industry and
households (DOE, 2016a).

IRP (2019) • Electricity infrastructure development plan

• Calls for 1,000 MW of new gas capacity by 2024 and
2,000 MW by 2028 (equating to 9% total installed
capacity by 2030).
• Supports the development of gas infrastructure and also
converting existing OCGTs (peakers) to run on gas (DMRE,
2019a).

Risk Mitigation • Intention to bring additional capacity onto the grid as fast
Independent Power as possible.
Producer Procurement • Performance requirements of IPPs include: dispatchable
Programme (2020) and flexible generation, minimum load factor of 50% per
year, reach capacity within 15 minutes of cold start.
• Power purchase agreements of 20 years where Eskom
must compensate the IPPs for a minimum of 50% of the
net available capacity each year (DMRE, 2020).

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Key points related to developing a gas-to-power sector

Document (year) (including gas supply)

Ministerial determination • In September 2020 NERSA concurred with the Ministerial

for 3,000 MW of gas-to- determination from February 2020 that included 3,000
power capacity (2020) MW of gas (Bungane, 2020; Determination Under Section
34(1) of the Electricity Regulation Act, 2006 (Act No.4 of
2006)).
• Capacity from IPPs, electricity to be bought by Eskom.
• DMRE indicated that the gas Request for Proposals
should be out by March 2022 (DMRE, 2021a).

Proposed Gas Master Plan • Once developed, the GMP aims to provide a roadmap for
(GMP) taking strategic, political, and institutional decisions that
In progress since at least will guide industry investment planning and coordinated
2014, a draft was released implementation.
in 2016, and a “Base Case” • The 2021 consultation document provides selected
consultation document background information on gas in Southern Africa but no
was released for public planning details (DMRE, 2021b).
comment in 2021

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Appendix 3. Potential Stranded Asset Risk

In the absence of an IEP or a GMP, the only direction for gas-to-power infrastructure
development is the IRP 2019. While this only allocates 3,000 MW until 2030, there are at
least 14,000 MW total of gas-to-power plants that are at advanced stages of planning or have
been granted environmental authorization (Section 2). It is unclear how these will get the go-
ahead, but, as seen with the RMI4P, determinations and other measures could be introduced
by the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy.

It is recognized that the declining imports from Mozambique and undeveloped domestic
offshore gas mean that LNG imports are the most likely supply option in the short to medium
terms (NBI, 2022). Table A2 estimates overnight capital costs of gas plants, LNG terminals,
and pipelines to indicate potential stranded asset risk.

The sequence is a hypothetical scenario based on the following evidence, which is limited, and
several components could be done in parallel.

1. The RFI for Coega was already released in November 2021.

2. Media reports suggest the tender for Richards Bay LNG terminal has been expected
since 2020 (Roelf, 2015), and the Eskom 3,000 MW plant has been planned since
before 2017 (Savannah Environmental, 2019).
3. The third strategically identified port is Saldanha, but it seems to be the least
progressed for LNG terminal construction.
4. The pipeline network aligns with a subset of the proposed CSIR gas corridors project
(Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, 2019).
5. Further projects for Richards Bay seem to be at a more advanced stage than Saldanha.

Despite the RFI for Coega LNG terminal specifying a FSRU, in January 2022 the Minister of
Transport announced that an onshore regasification would be built at Coega (Devdiscourse,
2022), with a total project value of USD 1.5 billion (ZAR 22.5 billion). It is unclear why there
would be a need for both facilities at this stage, but if the additional onshore facility is built,
that would add to the stranded asset potential.

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Table A2. Estimated capital costs for basic gas-to-power infrastructure in South
Africa

Overnight Capital Cost

Project Component Estimate (ZAR billion)

1. Initial Coega Development 1,000 MW gas plant 12.5

Corporation (CDC) project
Floating storage and 9.5
regasification unit (FSRU)
LNG terminal18

2. IRP 2019 capacity of 2,000 2,000 MW gas plant 25

MW (assume located at CDC)

Sub-total for IRP 2019 47

3. Richards Bay 3,000 MW CCGT Eskom 37.5

FSRU LNG terminal 9.5

4. Saldanha Bay and FSRU LNG terminal 8.5

Atlantis19
Pipeline to Atlantis 1.75

1,500 MW Atlantis plant 18.75

5. Pipeline network Connect LNG terminals 32–117.5

and inland to Gauteng from
Richards Bay, approximately
2,350 km.

6. Increase gas-to-power 2,000 MW gas plant 25

capacity at Richards Bay

7. Increase LNG imports at Second FSRU 4.7

Richards Bay

Total 184.7–270.2

18 Responses to the RFI from December 2021 are not in public domain.
19 Excluded the 1,500 MW ArcelorMittal plant as that seems to be purely for industrial offtake and not to supply
the grid, so asset stranding would have less of an impact on the national power sector.

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Gas Pressure

Basic Assumptions and Sources

The three cost components have been inflation adjusted to March 2022 ZAR from the sources
indicated.

1. CCGT overnight capital costs: ZAR 12.5 million per MW (NBI, 2022; Roff et al.,
2020).
2. FSRU LNG terminal ZAR 8.5-9.5 billion, depending on gas volumes and what port
infrastructure is needed (Transnet, 2016). These estimates align with reported figures
for the Matola terminal in Mozambique (Wendell, 2022).
3. Pipeline cost estimates vary substantially, as there are many variables (e.g., pipe
diameter, type of material) that depend on the gas volumes to be transported. Other
costs like acquiring land and property servitudes are location specific. Transnet data
equates to 16-inch pipelines costing ZAR 13.7 million per km, while recent NBI
estimates come out to ZAR 50 million per km (diameter not provided, but indicate
that new pipelines should be compatible with hydrogen transportation) (NBI, 2022).

Limitations
1. Excluding associated transmission infrastructure will lead to an underestimation of
stranded assets, but these could be repurposed for other power generation facilities.
2. Including LNG terminals might lead to an overestimation of stranded assets, if there is
still sufficient gas demand outside of the power sector for them to remain viable.

Cost Overruns on Megaprojects

A recent report by the National Planning Commission documents significant cost overruns
and delays across many public infrastructure projects, including the 715 km Transnet New
Multi-Product Pipeline, which increased from ZAR R12.7 billion to ZAR 30.4 billion and
took nine years to complete (Watermeyer & Phillips, 2020). Therefore, the real stranded
asset risk of a project can be significantly more than even the most up-to-date cost
estimates before a project commences.

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