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Machine Learning and Pattern Recognition Minimal Stochastic Variational Inference Demo

This Python code demonstrates black-box stochastic variational inference applied to logistic regression. It defines functions for calculating the variational cost and gradients, and for the logistic regression negative log-likelihood and gradients. These are used in a stochastic gradient descent loop to learn the variational posterior approximation.

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zeliawillscumberg
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38 views

Machine Learning and Pattern Recognition Minimal Stochastic Variational Inference Demo

This Python code demonstrates black-box stochastic variational inference applied to logistic regression. It defines functions for calculating the variational cost and gradients, and for the logistic regression negative log-likelihood and gradients. These are used in a stochastic gradient descent loop to learn the variational posterior approximation.

Uploaded by

zeliawillscumberg
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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#!

/usr/bin/env python

"""
This is a demo (not production code!) of black-box stochastic variational
inference applied to logistic regression.

The main black-box stochastic variational "engine" is svi_grad.

In principle it could be applied to any model with a differentiable negative


log-likelihood function. Although for large models you may want to make the
posterior approximation diagonal, and you may want to build a more structured
prior than one shared variance for all weights.

This demonstration is a quick line-by-line port of the Matlab/Octave code in


svi_minimal.m. The Matlab/Octave tar-ball has some more code with some checks,
which I haven't ported.

Iain Murray, November 2016, November 2017


"""

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

def svi_grad(mm, LL, Lsigma_w, neg_log_like_grad):


"""
cost function and gradients for black-box stochastic variational inference

Inputs:
mm D, mean of variational posterior
LL D,D lower-triangular Cholesky decomposition of
variational posterior, with diagonal log-transformed
Lsigma_w scalar: log of prior standard deviation over weights
neg_log_like_grad fn -ve log-likelihood of model and gradients wrt weights
Could be an unbiased estimate based on a mini-batch,
we only get unbiased estimates of cost and gradients
anyway.

Outputs:
J scalar: estimate of variational cost function = -ELBO
mm_bar D, with derivatives wrt mm, ...
LL_bar D,D ...LL, ...
Lsigma_w_bar ...and Lsigma_w
"""

# Unpack Cholesky factor of posterior covariance and prior variance


# from their unconstrained forms.
D = mm.size
L = np.tril(LL)
diag = np.diag_indices_from(L)
L[diag] = np.exp(LL[diag])
sigma2_w = np.exp(2*Lsigma_w)

# The estimate of the variational cost function


J1 = -0.5*D - np.sum(np.diag(LL)) # - D/2*log(2*pi)
tmp = (np.sum(L*L) + np.dot(mm, mm)) / sigma2_w
J2 = tmp/2.0 + D*Lsigma_w # + D/2*log(2*pi)
nu = np.random.randn(D)
ww = mm + np.dot(L, nu) # Using random weight
J3, ww_bar = neg_log_like_grad(ww)
J = J1 + J2 + J3

# The derivatives
mm_bar = mm/sigma2_w + ww_bar
L_bar = L/sigma2_w + np.tril(np.dot(ww_bar[:,None], nu[None,:]))
LL_bar = L_bar
LL_bar[diag] = (L_bar[diag] * L[diag]) - 1
Lsigma_w_bar = D - tmp

return J, mm_bar, LL_bar, Lsigma_w_bar

def logreg_negLlike(ww, X, yy):


"""
Negative log-likelihood and gradients of logistic regression

negLlike, ww_bar = logreg_negLlike(ww, X, yy)

There's no separate bias term. So X needs augmenting with a


constant column to include a bias.

Inputs:
ww D,
X N,D
yy N,

Outputs:
negLlike scalar
ww_bar D,
"""

# Force targets to be +/- 1


yy = 2*(yy==1) - 1

# forward computation of error


sigma = 1.0/(1.0 + np.exp(-yy*np.dot(X, ww)))
negLlike = -np.sum(np.log(sigma))

# reverse computation of gradients


ww_bar = np.dot(X.T, yy*(sigma - 1))

return negLlike, ww_bar

if __name__ == "__main__":
# Generate synthetic dataset and note corresponding likelihood
np.random.seed(0)
D = 3
ww = 5*np.random.randn(D)
N = 20
X = np.hstack((np.random.randn(N, D-1), np.ones((N,1))))
yy = np.random.rand(N) < (1.0/(1.0 + np.exp(-np.dot(X,ww))))
neg_log_like_grad = lambda w: logreg_negLlike(w, X, yy)

# If you rerun the fitting with different seeds you'll see we don't
# get quite the same answer each time. I'd need to set the learning rate
# schedule better, and/or run for longer, to get better convergence.
np.random.seed(2)

# Simple stochastic steepest descent with decreasing learning rate.


# Here each update includes the whole dataset because the dataset is
# tiny. However, we still have stochastic updates, as each update
# uses a different random weight drawn from the current variational
# approximation to the posterior.
Lsigma_w = np.log(10) # Initialize prior width broader than it actually was.
(We'll learn to fix that.)
mm = np.zeros(D)
LL = np.zeros((D, D))
diag = np.diag_indices_from(LL)
LL[diag] = Lsigma_w
eta0 = 0.1
tau = 0.1
for ii in range(10000):
eta = eta0 / (1 + tau*eta0*ii)
J, mm_bar, LL_bar, Lsigma_w_bar = svi_grad(mm, LL, Lsigma_w,
neg_log_like_grad)
mm = mm - eta*mm_bar
LL = LL - eta*LL_bar
Lsigma_w = Lsigma_w - eta*Lsigma_w_bar
# hack to stop extreme settings of hyperparameters early in training:
Lsigma_w = np.min([100.0, Lsigma_w])

# Extract covariance of the variational posterior from its


# unconstrained parameterization.
L = LL
L[diag] = np.exp(LL[diag])
V = np.dot(L, L.T)

# Plot data:
plt.clf()
plt.plot(X[yy==1, 0], X[yy==1, 1], 'bx')
plt.plot(X[yy==0, 0], X[yy==0, 1], 'ro')
plt.legend(('y=1', 'y=0'))

# Overlay contour plot of approximate predictive distribution:


x_grid = np.arange(-3, 3, 0.05)
X1, X2 = np.meshgrid(x_grid, x_grid)
NG = X1.size
X_test = np.hstack((X1.reshape(NG,1), X2.reshape(NG,1), np.ones((NG,1))))
kappa = 1.0 / np.sqrt(1 + (np.pi/8)*np.sum(np.dot(X_test,V)*X_test, 1))
p_test = 1.0 / (1+np.exp(-np.dot(X_test,mm)*kappa))
P = np.reshape(p_test, X1.shape)
CS = plt.contour(X1, X2, P, [0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.9])
plt.clabel(CS)
plt.xlabel('x_1')
plt.ylabel('x_2')
plt.title('Contours of p(y=1|x,D)')
plt.show()

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