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Tutorial Worksheet Basic Probability Concepts BUSINESS CLASS

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31 views

Tutorial Worksheet Basic Probability Concepts BUSINESS CLASS

Uploaded by

marciarley
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CHINHOYI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF NATURAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS

DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
CUMT105 Introduction to Statistics TUTORIAL WORKSHEET 6

Aug. - Dec. 2023 Time: XXXX hours

Attempt ALL questions before the tutorial session.

A1. (a) Define the following terms:


an experiment; trial; random experiment; outcome of an experiment; sample space;
sample point; event; subset; probability; and probability of an event.
(b) State the three approaches of assigning probabilities to events.

A2. A coin whose tail is thrice as likely to appear as the head is tossed three times. After the
three tosses, what is the probability that a tail appears twice?

A3. Two cylinders in an eight-cylinder engine are defective and need to be replaced. If two
cylinders are selected at random, calculate the probability that

(a) both defective cylinders are selected.


(b) no defective cylinder is selected.
(c) at least one defective cylinder is selected.

A4. A father blind folds his son who is to draw two blocks from a small box with nine blocks that
are identical except for colour. Six blocks are blue and three are black.

(a) Assuming the son accidentally drops the first block back before drawing the second,
what is the probability that the two blocks are of the same colour?
(b) Assuming the father quickly takes and secures the first block before the son could draw
the second, what is the probability that the two blocks are of different colours?

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CUMT105

A5. Two different local suppliers, X and Y , supply a similar product to a food outlet in Chinhoyi.
All supplies of this product are kept in a large container. It has emerged from previous
experience that 5% of the product supplied by X are defective and that 9% of the product
supplied by Y are also defective. Supplier X supplies four times as many of the product as
supplier Y . Suppose that a Chef with the food outlet picks up one product at random from
the large container. Calculate the probability that the product picked up is
(a) from supplier X.
(b) defective given that it is from supplier Y .
(c) defective.
(d) from supplier Y given that it is defective.

A6. Three lines of production in a company produce a similar item. Production line 1 produces
40% with production line 2 and production line 3 producing 30% each to satisfy the market
demand. It is also given that 5% of the items from production line 1 are defective, 5% from
production line 2 are defective and that 2.5% from production line 3 are defective. An official
in the Quality Control Department, randomly picks an item for testing from a stock of items
from all the production lines. What is the probability that the item picked is defective? Give
an interpretation of this probability.

A7. Suppose 2% of cotton fabric rolls and 3% of nylon fabric rolls contain flaws. Of the rolls
used by a manufacturer, 70% are cotton and 30% are nylon. What is the probability that a
randomly selected roll used by the manufacturer contains flaws?

A8. Incoming calls to a customer service centre are classified as complaints (75% of call) or requests
for information (25% of calls). Of the complaints, 40% deal with computer equipment that
does not respond and 57% deal with incomplete software installation; and in the remaining
3% of complaints, the user has improperly followed the installation instructions. The requests
for information are evenly divided on technical questions (50%) and requests to purchase more
products (50%).

(a) What is the probability that an incoming call to the customer service center will be
from a customer who has not followed installation instructions properly?
(b) Find the probability that an incoming call is a request for purchasing more products.

A9. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into those who are accident prone
and those who are not. Its statistics show that an accident prone person will have an accident
at some time within a fixed one year period with probability 0.4 whereas this probability
decreases to 0.2 for a non-accident-prone person.
(a) Assuming that 30% of the population is accident prone, what is the probability that a
new policyholder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy?
(b) Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy.
What is the probability that he or she is accident prone?

A10. A laboratory blood test is 95% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact,
present. However, the test also yields a “false positive” result for 1% of the healthy persons
tested. If 0.5% of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability a person
has the disease given that the test result is positive?
END OF TUTORIAL WORKSHEET

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