Experiment No.
AIM:
Assignment on Regression technique
a. Apply Linear Regression using suitable library function and predict the Month-wise
Download temperature data from below link.
https://www.kaggle.com/venky73/temperatures- of-india?select=temperatures.csv
This data consists of temperatures of INDIA averaging the temperatures of all places month wise.
Temperatures values are recorded in CELSIUS temperature.
b. Assess the performance of regression models using MSE, MAE and R-Square metrics
c. Visualize simple regression model.
Theory:
Regression:
Regression is a supervised learning technique which helps in finding the correlation between
variables and enables us to predict the continuous output variable based on the one or more
predictor variables. It is mainly used for prediction, forecasting, time series modeling and
determining the causal-effect relationship between variables. In Regression, we plot a graph
between the variables which best fits the given datapoints, using this plot, the machine learning
model can make predictions about the data.
Terminologies Related to the Regression Analysis:
Dependent Variable: The main factor in Regression analysis which we want to predict or understand is
called the dependent variable. It is also called target variable.
Independent Variable: The factors which affect the dependent variables or which are used to predict the
values of the dependent variables are called independent variable, also called as a predictor.
Outliers: Outlier is an observation which contains either very low value or very high value in comparison
to other observed values. An outlier may hamper the result, so it should be avoided.
Multicollinearity: If the independent variables are highly correlated with each other than other
variables, then such condition is called Multicollinearity. It should not be present in the dataset,
because it creates problem while ranking the most affecting variable.
Underfitting and Overfitting: If our algorithm works well with the training dataset but not well with
test dataset, then such problem is called Overfitting. And if our algorithm does not perform well even
with training dataset, then such problem is called underfitting.
Cost Functions:
1. Mean Absolute Error (MAE): MAE is a very simple metric which calculates the absolute
difference between actual and predicted values.
2. Mean Squared Error(MSE): Mean squared error states that finding the squared difference
between actual and predicted value. we perform squared to avoid the cancellation of negative
terms and it is the benefit of MSE.
3. Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE): As RMSE is clear by the name itself, that it is a simple
square root of mean squared error.
Linear Regression: Linear regression is a statistical regression method which is used for predictive
analysis. It is one of the very simple and easy algorithms which works on regression and shows the
relationship between the continuous variables. It shows the linear relationship between the independent
variable (X-axis) and the dependent variable (Y-axis), hence called linear regression.
Below is the mathematical equation for Linear regression:Y= aX+b
Here, Y= Independent Variable (Target Variable), X= Dependent Variable (Predictor Variable)
Steps in Linear Regression:
1. Loading the Data
2. Exploring the Data
3. Slicing The Data
4. Train and Split Data
5. Generate The Model
6. Evaluate The accuracy
Code:
#Importing required
libraries import
matplotlib.pyplot as plt import
pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import numpy as np
#Reading the input
dataset
trainData = pd.read_csv("temperatures.csv")
#Print first 10 records
print(trainData.head(n=10))
#Printing datatypes and columns in the dataset
#datatypes columwise
print("Below are the datatypes of
columns:") print(trainData.dtypes)
print()
#column names
print("Below are the columns in the
dataset:") print(trainData.columns)
print()
#describe min, max temp, count, std dev
values print("Descritive information about data
set:") print(trainData.describe())
#To check if dataset has null values or not
print(trainData.isnull().sum())
#To find top 10 temperature
#As per 'Annual col' find 'top 10' temp data
top_10_data = trainData.nlargest(10, "ANNUAL")
#Mentioned figure size
plt.figure(figsize=(14,12))
plt.title("Top 10 temperature records")
#In barplot x & y axis year & temp resp
sns.barplot(x=top_10_data.YEAR, y=top_10_data.ANNUAL)
#It is found that highest record of temperature is in 2016
roughly #about 32 degree Celsius
#Analyse 2016 data
data_2016 = trainData[trainData["YEAR"]==2016]
#x axis temp data in array format
xticks = np.array(data_2016[["JAN", "FEB", "MAR", "APR", "MAY", "JUN", "JUL", "AUG", "SEP",
"OCT", "NOV", "DEC"]].values)
#y axis months labels
yticks = ["JAN", "FEB", "MAR", "APR", "MAY", "JUN", "JUL", "AUG", "SEP", "OCT", "NOV",
"DEC"]
#To plot the graph
#Mentioned figsize
plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))
#barh: xticks & yticks get and set the current tick locations and labels of the x & y-axis.
plt.barh(yticks,xticks[0])
plt.title("Month wise temperature data of 2016")
plt.xlabel("Temperature in degree celsius")
plt.ylabel("Month")
plt.show()
#From the above graph it is clear that May month recorded highest temperature around 35
degree celsius
#Genearate Regresion Model of Training & Testing Data
from sklearn import linear_model,
metrics #train data according columns
print(trainData.columns)
#x axis = year
X=trainData[["YEAR"]]
# y axis= month wise temp
Y=trainData[["JAN"]]
#import training & testing features
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
#split data in training & testing part
X_train, X_test, Y_train, Y_test = train_test_split(X, Y, test_size=0.2, random_state=1)
print(len(X_train)) #lenth of x-train data
print(len(X_test)) #length of y-testing data
print(trainData.shape) #Show total row & column (117,18)
#Used Linear Regression Model Features to show data
reg = linear_model.LinearRegression()
print(X_train)
#fit decision line in Regression
Model model = reg.fit(X_train,
Y_train) #Predict test data
Y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
#Year wise predtion data
print('predicted response:', Y_pred, sep='\n')
#training regression model Scatter black color
plots plt.scatter(X_train, Y_train, color='black')
#Blue line indicate predicted training data
plt.plot(X_train, reg.predict(X_train), color='blue', linewidth=3)
plt.title("Temperature vs Year")
plt.xlabel("Year")
plt.ylabel("Temperature")
plt.show()
#testing regression model Scatter red color plots
plt.scatter(X_test, Y_test, color='red')
#Acc year machine predict temp
plt.plot(X_test, reg.predict(X_test), color='black',
linewidth=3) plt.title("Temperature vs Year")
plt.xlabel("Year")
plt.ylabel("Temperature")
plt.show()
Output:
Conclusion: Thus we have studied Regression techniques.
