Chapter 6
Chapter 6
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Chapter 6
Watermark
x
x
x
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f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x
x x1 xx12 x2
x1 x2
x
x1 x2
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Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
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where:
x = salad plate filling weight
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Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 – 5)2/12
= 8.33
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f(x)
1/10
x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
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f(x)
x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
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1 - ( x - µ )2 /2s 2
f (x) = e
s 2p
where:
µ = mean
s = standard deviation
p = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
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Characteristics
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Characteristics
Standard Deviation s
x
Mean µ
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Characteristics
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Characteristics
x
-10 0 25
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Characteristics
s = 15
s = 25
x
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Characteristics
.5 .5
x
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x
µ µ + 3s
µ – 3s µ – 1s µ + 1s
µ – 2s µ + 2s
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Characteristics
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Characteristics
s=1
z
0
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x-µ
z=
s
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z = (x - µ)/s
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83
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Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)
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Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033
z
0 .83
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Area = .9500
Area = .0500
z
0 z.05
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x = µ + z.05s
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87 or 25
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Probability of no
Probability of a
stockout during
stockout during
replenishment
replenishment
lead-time = .95
lead-time = .05
x
15 24.87
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Example
Suppose that a company has a history of making
errors in 10% of its invoices. A sample of 100
invoices has been taken, and we want to compute
the probability that 12 invoices contain errors.
In this case, we want to find the binomial
probability of 12 successes in 100 trials. So, we set:
µ = np = 100(.1) = 10
s = np (1 - p ) = [100(.1)(.9)] ½ = 3
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s=3
P(11.5 < x < 12.5)
(Probability
of 12 Errors)
x
µ = 10 12.5
11.5
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x
10 12.5
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x
10
11.5
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P(x = 12)
= .7967 - .6915
= .1052
x
10 12.5
11.5
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Density Function
1
f ( x) = e - x / µ for x > 0
µ
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Cumulative Probabilities
P ( x £ x0 ) = 1 - e - xo / µ
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
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f(x)
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End of Chapter 6
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