Question Answer Marks Guidance

1 (i) (A) 15 3
P(Watched cyc but not fb) = = = 0.06 B1 CAO (aef)
250 50
[1]
(i) (B) 33 + 12 + 21 + 14 + 3 + 65 250 − (64 + 38) For M1 terms must be added with no
P(Watched one or two) = OR: = extra terms (added or subtracted)
250 M1 250

148 74
= = = 0.592 A1 CAO (aef)
250 125
[2]
(ii) 15 For denominator of either 67 or
P(Not watched fb|watched cyc) = = 0.224 (0.223880597…) M1 67/250 or 0.268
67
A1 CAO (aef) Allow 0.22 with working
[2]

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 2 (i) 2
4 

P(Neither is an ace) = 1 −  M1 For 48/52 oe seen
 52 
2304 144 A1 CAO Allow 0.85 with working
= = = 0.852 (0.8572071…)
2704 169
[2]
(ii) Expected number = 10 × 0.852 = 8.52 B1 FT their (i) if seen Do not allow whole number final
answer even if 8.52 seen first.
Allow fractional answer
[1]

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 Question Answer Marks Guidance
3 (i) Allow labels such as A, R,
Do a vertical scan and give:
F(Fail) etc
Accept
0.2
G1 First column All probabilities correct
G1 Second column All probabilities correct
0.5 Accept
Reject 0.2
Final column All probabilities correct
0.3 0. 5
Retest Reject Do not award if first two If any labels missing or incorrect
Accept branches missing
0.4 G1 allow max 2/3
Branches two and three Do not allow misreads here as all
0. 3 Retest should come out of ‘retest’ FT (eg 0.3 and 0.5 reversed)
0.6 Reject

[3]
(ii) FT their tree provided correct
P(Accepted) = 0.2 + (0.3 × 0.2) + (0.3 × 0.3 × 0.4) M1 For second or third product numbers of terms and correct
structure of 3, 3, 2 branches.
= 0.2 + 0.06 + 0.036 = 0.296 A1 CAO Allow 37/125 oe
[2]
(iii) P(At least one retest given accepted)
FT their tree provided correct
P(At least one retest and accepted) For numerator numbers of terms and correct
= M1
P(Accepted) structure of 3, 3, 2 branches. for
both M1’s
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Both must be part of a fraction
0.096 M1 For denominator
= = Allow 12/125 oe
0.296 0.296
FT their 0.296 and 0.096
= 0.324 A1 Allow 12/37 oe
Allow 0.32 with working
[3]

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 Question Answer Marks Guidance
4 (i) Either P(L ∩ R) (= 0.099) ≠ P(L)
If two or more methods × P(R), provided 0.099 in (ii)
given and only one correct,
Because P(L | R) P(L) E1 do not award the mark or 0.099 ≠ 0.15 × 0.22 (= 0.033)

Allow 0.45 ≠ 0.15 Look out for complement

methods, etc
[1]
(ii) P(L ∩ R) = P(L | R) × P(R) = 0.45 × 0.22 M1 For product Allow if done correctly in part(i)
= 0.099 A1 CAO Allow 99/1000
[2]
(iii)
Condone labels such as P(L) etc
For two labelled
Allow other shapes in place of
L R intersecting circles,
G1 circles
provided no incorrect
No need for ‘box’
labelling.
FT from 0.033 in (ii) gives
0..28
0 051
6 0.099 0.121 For at least 2 correct 0.117, 0.033, 0.187, 0.663
probabilities. In general 0.15 – x, x, 0.22 – x,
G1
FT their P(L ∩ R) from part 0.63 + x
(ii) provided ≤ 0.15 May also see 0.0825, 0.0675,
0.1525, 0.6975
0.729 For remaining probabilities.
FT their P(L ∩ R) providing
G1
probabilities between 0 and
1.
[3]

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 5 (i)
P ( L W )  P ( L |W )  P(W )  0.4  0.07  0.028 M1 For P ( L |W )  P(W )

A1 cao
[2]
(ii)
B1 For two labelled
L W intersecting circles

B1 For at least 2 correct FT their 0.028 provided < 0.038

0.01 0.028 0.042
probabilities.

B1 For remaining probabilities

0.92

[3]
(iii)
P ( L W )  0.028, P ( L)  P(W )  0.038  0.07  0.00266 M1 For correct use of Or EG P( L | W )  0.4, P(L)  0.038
P ( L)  P(W ) Not equal so not independent
If P(L) wrong, max M1 is for comparing with some
M1A0E0. attempt at numbers
No marks if P(W) wrong P( L | W ) with P(L) , A1 for 0.038
If P(L) wrong, max M1A0E0
A1 For 0.00266
Not equal so not independent E1* Allow ‘they are dependent’
dep on Do not award E1 if
M1 P( L  W )wrong
[3]

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 6 (i) 2
 5  1 25 If extra term or whole number factor
    (= 0.116) M1 For 5/6 (or 1 – 1/6) seen present give M1M0A0
 6  6 216
M1 For whole product
A1 cao Allow 0.12 with working
[3]
(ii) 10
5
1     1  0.1615  0.8385 M1 For (5/6)10 Allow 0.838 or 0.839 without working
6 (without extra terms) and 0.84 with working.
For addition P(X = 1) +…+ P(X = 10)
give M1A1 for 0.84 or better,
otherwise M0A0
A1 cao
[2]

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 Question Answer Marks Guidance
7 (i) 30 29 28 30 (30/50)3 = 0.216 scores
P(All blue) =   = 0.2071 M1 For  (as part of a M1M0A0
50 49 48 50 k ( k 1) ( k  2)
triple product) 50

49

48
for values of k
other than 30 scores M1M0A0
Zero for binomial unless
simplifies to (3/5)3

M1 For product of other two Correct working but then

fractions multiplied or divided by some
factor scores M1M0A0
OR A1 CAO Accept 0.21 with working and
 30   50 
 /  = 4060/19600 = 29/140 = 0.2071 0.207 without working
3 3 SC2 for P(All red) = Allow unsimplified fraction as
M2 for the complete method 0.0582 final answer 24360/117600 oe
[3]
(ii) 20 19 18  20   50  M1 For P(All red) SC2 for 1 – (30/50)3 – (20/50)3
P(All red) =   = 0.0582 or  / = 0.0582 = 1 – 0.216 – 0.064 = 0.72,
50 49 48 3 3
providing consistent with (i) . If
not consistent with (i) M0M0A0

P(At least one of each colour)

= 1 – (0.2071 + 0.0582) = 0.7347 M1 For 1 – (0.2071 + 0.0582)
 29 57  260 13 36
or 1      1  1 
 140 980  980 49 49
A1 CAO Allow 0.73 with working
OR [3] Allow unsimplified fraction as
final answer 86400/117600 oe
P(2b,1r)+P(1b,2r) (M1) 30 29 20 Allow M1 for
For either  3×(30/50)2×(20/50) or
50 49 48
3×(30/50) ×(20/50) 2 and second
20 19 30
or   M1 for sum of both if = 0.72
50 49 48 If not consistent with (i)
M0M0A0

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 Question
uest Answer Marks Guidance
8 (i) X ~ B(30, 0.85) M1 29
For 0.85 × 0.15 = 1

0.0013466
 30  M1  30  With p + q = 1
P(X = 29) =   × 0.8529 × 0.151 = 30 × 0.0013466 = 0.0404 For   × p29 × q1
 
29  
29
A1 CAO Allow 0.04 www
[3] If further working (EG P(X=29)
–P(X=28)) give M2A0
(ii) P(X = 30) = 0.8530 = 0.0076 M1 For 0.8530
P(X ≥ 29) = 0.0404 + 0.0076 = 0.0480 M1 For P(X = 29) + P(X = Allow eg 0.04+0.0076=0.0476
30)
0) (not necessar Allow 0.05 with working
correct, but both attempts
at binomial, including
coefficient in (i))
A1 CAO
[3]
(iii) Expected number = 10 × 0.0480 = 0.480 M1 For 10 × their (ii) provided (ii) between 0 and 1
A1 FT their (ii) but if answer Do not allow answer rounded to
to (ii) leads to a whole 0 or 1.
number for (iii) give
M1A0
[2]

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