Coordinators

Ahmed Galal, Economic Research Forum, Egypt

Jean-Louis Reiffers, Institut de la Mditerrane, France
October 2011
2011
TOWARDS A NEW MED REGION:
ACHIEVING FUNDAMENTAL TRANSITIONS
FEMISE REPORT ON THE
EUROMEDITERRANEAN PARTNERSHIP
This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union.
The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no
circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.
Illustraon Alain Soucasse
-i-
FEMISE REPORT ON THE
EUROMEDITERRANEAN PARTNERSHIP
TOWARDS A NEW MED REGION:
ACHIEVING FUNDAMENTAL TRANSITIONS
Ahmed Galal, Economic Research Forum, Egypt
Jean-Louis Reiffers, Institut de la Mditerrane, France
Coordinators
This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of
this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no circumstances be regarded as
reflecting the position of the European Union.
October 2011
-ii- -ii-
-iii- -iii-
October 2011
FEMISE REPORT ON THE EUROMEDITERRANEAN PARTNERSHIP
TOWARDS A NEW MED REGION:
ACHIEVING FUNDAMENTAL TRANSITIONS
This report was directed by Professor Jean-Louis Reiers (Marseille Euromed Management School, President of the FEMISE Scienc
Commiee and of Instut de la Mditerrane).
Contribuons, alphabecally:
Prof. Lahcen Achy (Naonal Instute of Stascs and Applied Economics (INSEA)), Rabat and Carnegie Middle East Center, Beirut) contri-
buted in the second chapter (with the assistance of Joulan Abdulkhalek and Peter Gruskin).
Assistant Prof. Yusuf Kocoglu (Laboratory for Applied Economics for Development (LEAD), Faculty of Economics and Management, Uni-
versity of Sud Toulon-Var, Employment Study Center) contributed in the third chapter.
Prof. Nicolas Pridy (Laboratory for Applied Economics for Development (LEAD), Faculty of Economics and Management, University of
SudToulon-Var) contributed in the forthlchapter.
Dr. Hoda Selim (Economist FEMISE, ERF) contributed in the rst chapter and in the country proles (with the assistance of Ramage Nada).
Dr. Constann Tsakas (Economist FEMISE, Instut de la Mditerrane) contributed in the rst chapter and in the country proles.
Special thanks go to Isabelle Gaysset (FEMISE) for her assistance in formang.
Cover : Illustraon by Alain Soucasse
-iv- -iv-
Ahmed GALAL Economic Research Forum Egypt
Jean-Louis REIFFERS Institut de la Mditerrane France
Nuhad ABDALLAH Academic Unit for Scientific Research ( AUSR) Syria
Bruno AMOROSO Federico Caffe Center Roskilde University Denmark
Patricia AUGIER DEFI, Universit de la Mditerrane France
Slimane BEDRANI CREAD Algeria
Mongi BOUGHZALA Universit de Tunis El Manar Tunisia
Mahmoud EL JAFARI Al Quds University of Jerusalem Palestine
Anna Maria FERRAGINA CELPE, University of Salermo Italy
Michael GASIOREK Sussex University United Kingdom
Ahmed GHONEIM Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences - Cairo University Egypt
John GRECH Competitive Malta Malta
Alejandro LORCA CORRONS Universidad Autonoma de Madrid Spain
Samir MAKDISI Institute of Financial Economics Am. Univ. in Beirut Lebanon
Tuomo MELASUO University of Tampere TAPRI Finland
Jan MICHALEK Department of Economics Universit de Varsovie Poland
Seyfeddin MUAZ Royal Scientific Society Jordan
Lahcen OULHAJ Universit Mohammed V Morocco
Khalid SEKKAT Universit Libre de Bruxelles Belgium
Alfred STEINHERR DIW Germany
Subidey TOGAN Bilkent University Turkey
Alfred TOVIAS Leonard Davis Institute of International Relations Israel
October 2011
Members of the Steering Committee :
!"!!


1A8LL CI CCN1LN1S

Introduct|on.....................................................................................................................................................p.1

art one

Chapter 1. 1he expected consequences of the revo|ut|ons ............................................................................. p.9
l. ShorL-Lerm losses vS long-Lerm galns: Lhe raLlonale ............................................................................................p.9
ll. Macroeconomlc and secLoral esLlmaLes ............................................................................................................p.11
lll. Pow democracy and credlblllLy are expecLed Lo generaLe conslderable galns ................................................p.29

Chapter 2. 1he 8reakdown of the Author|tar|an 8arga|n ...............................................................................p.3S
l. lor a long Llme, Lhe auLhorlLarlan bargaln relgned.............................................................................................p.36
ll.unsusLalnable bargaln .......................................................................................................................................p.39
lll. AlLernaLlve survlval sLraLegles ...........................................................................................................................p.40
lv. lacLors LhaL acceleraLed Lhe breakdown ..........................................................................................................p.42
v. 1he fuLure: from economlcs Lo pollLlcs and back...............................................................................................p.43

Chapter 3. outh emp|oyment |n the Ms......................................................................................................p.49
l. ?oung eople, a real source of wealLh for MLnA CounLrles provlded Lhey are moblllsed ................................p.49
ll. An lncreaslng number of young graduaLes.........................................................................................................p.30
lll. A dlfflculL LranslLlon from educaLlon sysLems Lo Lhe labor markeL ...................................................................p.32
lv. 1he educaLlon/unemploymenL relaLlonshlp: a source of ma[or concern for Lhe youLh ...................................p.34
v. Pow can Lhe youLh graduaLes hlgh unemploymenL raLe be explalned?............................................................p.37
vl. AcLlve labor markeL pollcles for youLh..............................................................................................................p.62
vll. Concluslon and recommendaLlons...................................................................................................................p.64

Chapter 4. Some new |ns|ghts |nto trade potent|a| between the LU and |ts M's ...........................................p.69
l. SelecLed sLyllzed facLs concernlng Lrade beLween Ms and lLs Lu: A comparaLlve analysls. .............................p.71
ll. 1he Lrade poLenLlal beLween Ms and Lhe Lu: A comparaLlve analysls ...........................................................p.74
lll. Concluslon and pollcy lmpllcaLlons ...................................................................................................................p.81

keferences.....................................................................................................................................................p.8S

art two - Deta||ed s|tuat|on |n Ms : country sheets .....................................................................................p.91

1echn|ca| Annex...........................................................................................................................................p.221



-vi-
-1- -1-
TOWARDS A NEW MED REGION: ACHIEVING
FUNDAMENTAL TRANSITIONS
INTRODUCTION
A new paradigm
The Arab Spring surprised all the economists who
thought that the eorts made to open up trading,
increase the aracveness of foreign direct invest-
ment and develop internaonal co-operaon had
nally placed the Mediterranean countries on a
trajectory of convergence with their major Euro-
pean neighbours. GDP growth rates in the past few
years were nearing the threshold that would have
allowed these countries to truly catch up (broadly
greater than 4% per annum on average over the
period 2000-2009). In some cases considerable
progress had been made in producvity (Egypt,
Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia), based on the penetra-
on of the knowledge economy; in others signi-
cant direct investment inows had been generated,
encouraging some countries to start carrying out
operaons aiming to achieve the converbility of
the capital account (which means moving towards
the complete liberalisaon of nancial ows, as
was the case in Egypt).
In the past, FEMISE had underlined the danger of
an unbalanced transfer equaon in the context of
the Euromed agreements. This imbalance reects
a substanal trade imbalance with Europe, due
to asymmetrical tari dismantling (which hardly
concerns agricultural products and has been ac-
companied by a massive increase in the technical
and sanitary-related standards imposed by Euro-
pe) and also due to the diculty in compensang
for it by means of migrant transfers, tourism and
long-term funds. It had also been explained that
the reducon in poverty was insucient because
it was lower than the growth rate, meaning that
a one point gain in growth was accompanied by a
half-point increase in inequalies, that lile girls
were dying more frequently than lile boys in ru-
ral areas, and that poverty there was more severe.
Finally, every report underlined the high level of
unemployment among young people with quali-
caons and those without any ocial recognion
of their educaon.
Nevertheless, these factors could be considered con-
trollable and in fact fairly common to countries with
lower than average income moving towards being
considered as emerging countries. Free trade natu-
rally creates inequalies, while generang an overall
net gain, since it favours sectors with comparave
advantages to the detriment of others (non-compe-
ve sectors and sectors with so-called non-exchan-
geable goods), and can cause serious social problems
if the State does not provide proper compensaon
for those who lose out. When the supply of quali-
caons is not appropriate, foreign investments have
few spill-over eects and tend to be concentrated in
relavely restricted areas, usually located in coastal
regions or near major urban centres.
So in that case, why has the Arab Spring been such
a surprise, and what is the fundamental explana-
on for it? The rst reason is the way in which the
overall movement towards emergence has been
conducted. This is a central point for transion,
which is going to pose considerable dicules in
the future. This movement can be explained by a
development model which favored an elite consis-
ng of closely linked policians and business gu-
res (see Ahmed Galal, 2011)[1]. This is parcularly
the case in Egypt and Tunisia. It follows that the
usual rangs highlighng the lack of compeon,
the deciencies of the employment market, the
role of banks and corrupon were not calling into
queson a deep-rooted collusion between the ope-
rators and polical power. Over the years, this col-
lusion has aected every sphere of society at very
dierent levels, such as choosing the operators
for a major project, winning a public tender, deve-
loping a specic region as a priority, granng a loan
to an SME, nding a job in the civil service, etc. and
even ... obtaining a permit to be a street-vendor.
This is a complex issue for the transion, since it
is these operators and this polical power, protec-
-2- -2-
ted by the press, that have contributed to the pre-
viously described economic progress. So it is hardly
possible to bypass most of these operators without
opng for a complete change of the system. But, in
that case the system would be too far away from
the dominant economic trend. Meanwhile, all this
has to be accomplished in a context of complete
transparency, where operators are separated from
polical power, independent agencies are respon-
sible for ensuring fairness and evaluang main
decisions, where freedom of the press is a given
and people can parcipate to the social choices, in
other words a true democracy.
The second reason is the natural instability caused
by a more profound integraon into the world eco-
nomy. This process of integraon has to connue,
in parcular by developing South-South integra-
on. But it has to be properly regulated. We know,
that for more than 40 years, all the Arab revolts
have taken place when the prices of basic food pro-
ducts increased signicantly This was parcularly
the case in the late 70s in Egypt, Morocco and Tuni-
sia when the IMF missions recommended that the
prices of essenal commodies (wheat, sugar, oil)
should no longer be subsidised to allow local pro-
ducon to develop. Although this recommenda-
on was jused in economic terms, it had poorly-
assessed social repercussions. As a result Tahrir
Square was invaded, some hotels were burned
down in Cairo, aer which President Sadat decided
to cancel the measure. Moreover, the rise of the
Muslim Brotherhood dates back to these events.
The same phenomena occurred in Rabat and Tunis,
to a lesser extent, three months later but for the
same reasons.
Before the Arab Spring revoluons, we did indeed
see a considerable increase in the prices of these
products. In fact they were subsidised using inef-
fecve means which were felt to be unfair. This was
no doubt a major cause of the explosion. It seems
the lesson has been learned, since the G8 recently
decided to create a fund to regulate the prices of
food products which do not have to depend on the
ancipatory acons of operators in Chicago. How is
it possible to explain to the mother of a poor family
(around 20% of the people living on less than $2.40
per day in the Mediterranean countries) that the pri-
ce of wheat she uses to prepare couscous and which
represents around 30% of her regular consumpon
has increased by 15% in three months because the
operators in Chicago bought future contracts on
an upward trend due to a series of res in Russia?
Moreover, we should appreciate the fact that the
President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, de-
clared that in 2011, food should be considered the
regions number one priority.
The third reason, linked to the rst, is the exclusion
of young people from decisions and employment.
The current Moroccan authories have understood
this and have included in the constuon an obli-
gaon for cizens aged under 40 to be represented
in Parliament. This struggle against a patriarchal
society also concerns women, who were very ac-
ve in the revoluon. It will be a long struggle and
requires the development of student unions, their
engagement in polical life and above all educa-
on, training and employment. The Arab countries
have a very high proporon of young people with
no qualicaons who are not classied as unem-
ployed, and therefore excluded from any consi-
deraon by society. They also have a substanal
proporon of unemployed people with qualica-
ons, which obviously constutes a me bomb.
This explains why the new authories immediately
proposed to create public sector jobs reserved for
young people with qualicaons. Although we can
understand the immediate reasons for these de-
cisions, clearly they will hardly solve the problem.
The soluon is in the longer term. It relates to the
quality of educaon and training, its relevance to
the needs of the economy, the possibility of crea-
ng and developing small businesses, entry into
the knowledge economy, the penetraon of a cul-
ture of skills and risk.
The fourth reason that explains, for example, why
in Tunisia the movement originated from the cen-
-3-
tre of the country is the extraordinary territorial
disparies that exist in all the countries concerned.
Development takes place in the major urban cen-
tres and coastal regions. The rural territories in the
centre and South are very much deprived. In these
areas jobs are rarer, the essenal infrastructure is
oen lacking and these areas have lile control
over the decisions that aect them. This re-appro-
priaon of the rural territories and rural populaon
will be decisive for the future. Here again, it requi-
res democracy to make progress through forms of
decentralisaon involving as much as possible the
local concentraons.
All of these aspects call for a more systemic and bet-
ter coordinated approach than has been adopted in
the past. If the Arab Spring countries cannot connue
their march towards liberalisaon and progress by
relying on the most dynamic elements of their socie-
es and achieve beer internal integraon, where
economic gains are not the only criteria for success,
then we are entled to believe that the transion will
not usher in a new era of progress. This will be accom-
plished by mobilising all exisng energies, as well as
new players. In many respects, it would seem that the
authories currently in power have decided to adopt
this strategy: move towards stronger growth, not
move backwards, but make this growth more inclu-
sive and parcipatory. The driving force is obviously
a true democracy, since it will enable new energising
factors to be unleashed. If on the contrary, people
wait for the situaon to sele down and return to bu-
siness as usual, there is a strong risk that the advance
of democracy itself will be threatened.
What kind of transion?
Although the situaons are markedly dierent in
terms of how the democrac uprising has mani-
fested itself, the elements idened to explain this
transformaon in Tunisia and Egypt are to be found
everywhere.
In the countries most aected by the transformaon,
the queson of an insuciently consolidated future
has to be posed. As has been underlined where Egypt
is concerned (A. Galal 2011), the failure of past po-
licies le an intellectual vacuum and made it abun-
dantly clear that we urgently need clear answers to
the following three quesons at least:
Which development model should the coun-
tries concerned follow in the wake of the revol-
uon?
What can be done in the short-run to deal
with the economic downturn while ensuring that
the measures adopted do no harm to future eco-
nomic reform eorts?
Finally, once the dust seles and a new poli-
cal system emerges, what can be done to achie-
ve faster economic growth with greater equality
among all cizens?
For the others who are suering, albeit to a lesser ex-
tent, from the same fundamental dicules, we must
ancipate this new social demand, which is spreading
at dierent speeds. Those who have understood this
are implemenng reforms (Morocco, Jordan, Algeria)
or trying to persuade their populaons that they in-
tend to do so (Syria).
Finally, there are countries that are some way ahead
in terms of the penetraon of democracy (Lebanon,
Turkey) and they can become reference points if
they are capable of invenng new forms of demo-
cracy founded on a steady march towards social and
economic progress. From this point of view, Turkey
today seems to be the most advanced country, des-
pite the dicules to be described below.
Talk of the transion of Mediterranean countries
conjures up memories of the 90s when the Eastern
block collapsed and underwent the transion to a
market economy. The common point here is that,
in the short term, the transformaon of the poli-
cal system will generate considerable costs for any
adjustment. The dierence is that the issue here is
not how to allow market forces to penetrate, but
how to ensure they are no longer controlled by il-
legimate forces.
-4-
It is therefore a queson of obtaining an open, more
inclusive model for growth, that the populaon can
take ownership of because they can directly perceive
its results. The route to be followed is narrow, insofar
as trends are already emerging today to move from
a model of economic growth to a distribuve model
that would involve a return of state control and even
state ownership. The FEMISE standpoint is therefore
that the benets accumulated since the early 90s in
terms of the liberalisaon of markets, the opening up
of the trade in goods and capital and the circulaon
of ideas, must be consolidated and even accentuated,
especially in relaon to the integraon of the Southern
region. But they must also produce results that are
more fairly shared, which will involve the creaon of
several mechanisms that are enrely missing:
a clear strategy for the chosen development
model, approved by the majority of the popula-
on with a roadmap,
a mechanism under the authority of the prime
minister to set up and monitor this strategy, inclu-
ding evaluaon of the impacts of the implemen-
ted projects on specically targeted populaon
groups (the poor, young people, women, etc.).
at the same level, a strengthening of the pro-
cedures for selecng projects and of the transpa-
rency of the tendering process,
a strict separaon of power between polical,
administrave and judiciary authories,
Freedom of the press and free access to inde-
pendent surveys carried out by naonal stascs
oces on the level of inclusion of the poor, young
people, women, rural populaons and popula-
ons isolated from decision-making centres.
This is the price to pay in order for this transion, which
is a so transion, to be considered credible.
Report content and plan
The aim of the rst chapter is to provide an ove-
rall panorama of the macro-economic situaon.
More parcularly, it seeks to characterise the cur-
rent situaon and to evaluate the short-term costs
associated with the dierent internal events in the
countries of the region, the consequences of the
uncertaines concerning expectaons and the ef-
fects of the slump in external demand in Europe
and the United States. However, since this report
is based on the assumpon that these inial costs
will be compensated by long-term gains, it also
proposes a number of recommendaons to boost
growth in the future.
The rst recommendaon is to connue working
towards liberalisaon. This is an important factor
to reinforce long-term stability by mobilising new
players. In addion, it makes it possible to re-allo-
cate capital and labour for the benet of producve
services and sectors with comparave advantages.
The EU must conrm its role of anchor, which means
it must review the posion of the Mediterranean
countries within the neighbourhood policy, clarify
the respecve roles of the Union for the Mediterra-
nean and the Commission, and make sure that the
G8 commitment to support transion can quickly
be converted into concrete acons. Following the
G8 Deauville iniave, the European Union is to
adopt a new denion of its Euro-Mediterranean
policy (the partnership for shared democracy and
prosperity) and increase the resources devoted to
the Mediterranean by the end of 2013. These ad-
dional resources are condional upon democrac
progress, and are split in two: half from EIB loans
and half from donaons to support reforms and
emergency social measures.
At the meeng on 10 September 2011 in Marseille,
the Deauville partnership was extended to include
17 naons, and mobilised 10 internaonal sup-
port organisaons including the ve internaonal
nancial organisaons (World Bank, Internaonal
Finance Corporaon-IFC, EIB, BAfD and BERD) as
well as the four Arab nancial instuons. Four
points are highlighted: (i) a capital decit which
requires direct aid, (ii) a collapse of trade ows
making it necessary to support the relevant coun-
tries access to the markets of developed countries
-5-
and to boost inter-Arab integraon, (iii) the need
to establish more inclusive growth founded on the
boom in the local private system and a reform of
the business climate (iv) funding of technical assis-
tance for the necessary instuonal changes and
to deal with emergency situaons (see Henry Mar-
ty-Gauqui October 2011).
Secondly, as the reforms that will complete the tran-
sion towards a market economy take place, the
government has a responsibility for providing social
protecon. Those who lose out due to the transi-
on process must be compensated by unemploy-
ment benets. Health and educaon policies must
be maintained in the short-term and developed in
the medium to long-term. Support for the prices of
energy and foodstus must also be maintained and
made more eecve. Long-term structural policies
must be introduced, to produce new specialisaons
in promising sectors, create an equilibrium between
territories and develop the knowledge economy.
Thirdly, it is necessary to make sure that as far as pos-
sible the major macro-economic balances are main-
tained, which means that substanal internaonal
aid must be mobilised to avoid an excessive burden
being placed on public expenditure (the J curve eect
is inevitable), that greater nominal exibility must be
accepted (parcularly in relaon to monetary policy
and the exchange rate) in order to avoid real adjust-
ments being too brutal. The risk in this case is a con-
siderable increase in inaon. But if the structural
reforms are implemented quickly enough, monetary
policy should be able to nd an acceptable point of
equilibrium between the necessary nominal adjust-
ment and the real adjustment.
An examinaon of the situaon in the third quarter
of 2011 shows the inial condions for a controlled
transion are quite favourable (relavely low bud-
get decit, currency reserves at around 5 months
of imports, debt as a percentage of GDP close to
less than half that of many European countries,
single digit inaon, ocial unemployment rate
slightly above 10%) compared to the situaon of
the Eastern block countries at the beginning of the
90s aer the rst wave of reforms.
However, although the macro-economic condions
are relavely favourable, the basic living condi-
ons, the quality of educaon, the struggle against
inequalies, corrupon and the delay in instuo-
nal changes are lagging far behind. The challenge
at stake over the next few years is very clear. How
far can we go to improve these basic condions,
which are now vital in order to obtain sustainable
growth, with the help of the internaonal commu-
nity, without doing too much damage to the major
macro-economic balances?
The second chapter examines in detail the col-
lapse of the authoritarian bargain model which
prevailed before the crisis (and which sll pre-
vails today in certain MPs) to ascertain what
steps should be taken to transform it into a de-
mocrac model.
The rst queson concerns the way in which the
transion of centrally planned and self-centred
systems towards a market economy nally led to a
form of authoritarian and captor capitalism which
gradually lost popular support to the benet of an
inuenal urban middle class in search of unearned
income and a rural elite consisng of landowners.
These two populaons had created networks foun-
ded on privasaons and policies conducted to s-
mulate the private sector.
The second queson tackled in this chapter is to
understand the reasons why the majority of peo-
ple did not accept the terms of the bargain. The
fundamental reason is that a larger, younger, bet-
ter educated and more urbanised populaon deci-
ded, at a parcular moment in me, to give greater
importance to the values of freedom, dignity, and
social jusce than to any economic benets they
could obtain from the authoritarian regime.
The third queson examines the factors that acce-
lerated the process of rupture. The standpoint set
-6-
out in this chapter is that in addion to the erosion
of the authoritarian bargain, three factors played a
central role: (i) the magnitude of inequality which
rose dramacally in recent years, (ii) the endemic
corrupon which proliferated beyond redempon
in the inner circles of each regime, (iii) the social
media which provided an opportunity for increased
awareness for the populaon.
The conclusion is that instead of unearned income
for patronage, the governments in the region need
to conceive appropriate incenve schemes based
on consideraons of economic eciency and social
jusce. On this basis, four groups of recommenda-
ons are presented:
review the scal policy and aim for a more
equitable system that implies: direct taxaon more
than indirect taxes, progressive income taxes,
combat against fraud and evasion and unjused
exempons especially on companies (individuals
pay more compared to companies: in Tunisia for
example, the former pay 65% and the laer 35%),
design an appropriate industrial /structural
policy with comprehensive medium long term
strategy,
design adequate incenves to channel resour-
ces toward selected high-value and knowledge-in-
tensive sectors to absorb educated labour,
strengthen market mechanisms and reinforce
transparency for ecient allocaon of resources;
this means strengthening the compeon autho-
ries and introducing regulaons to encourage
compeon.
The third chapter discusses the reasons why
youth should be considered the main resource
to be deployed. The aim here is to demonstrate
the decisive importance of young people in the
Mediterranean countries for another twenty
years or so. At the end of this period, the Me-
diterranean countries will themselves be con-
fronted with the problem of an ageing popula-
tion and will have problems financing retirement
pensions. To preserve long-term equilibrium it
is therefore vital to satisfy the expectations of
young people in the Mediterranean countries
without delay.
This chapter provides an overview of the present
schooling situaon in all educaonal cycles and in em-
ployment. The condions for access to the employ-
ment market are analysed, as are the dierences in
treatment between the private sector and public sec-
tor. In general, the parcipaon and employment ra-
tes in Mediterranean countries are considerably lower
than those observed in the global economy, which re-
sults in massive unemployment, parcularly for drop-
outs and graduates from higher educaon. The dura-
on of unemployment is tending to increase.
The main conclusions and recommendations in
this chapter, which also demonstrates the limits
of State intervention currently prevalent in this
field, are:
to adopt a systemic overall approach insofar as
the supply and demand for labour are both concer-
ned, as well as the relaons between the two.
to target two categories: drop-outs from the
school system and graduates from the higher edu-
caon system, since the secondary system is less
aected,
to increase development of vocational trai-
ning, counselling into shorter training courses,
guidance into vocational fields in the most pro-
mising sectors. In this respect, it would be desi-
rable to be in possession of a common core of
basic skills relating to business creation and ma-
nagement, which could be delivered at the end
of the period of compulsory schooling, and ac-
credited by IT means. The skills-based approach
should also be adopted to define the additions
to be made to general education and training,
in view of the new types of occupations that are
emerging. In general, it is important to deve-
lop a skills-based approach in complementarity
with the diploma-oriented approach.
to develop the possibilies for creang small bu-
sinesses (state start-up funds, specic loans, etc.)
-7-
to set up second chance schools as already exist
in Europe for dropouts,
to aim to improve the overall quality of the edu-
caon system by making widespread use of Pisa
evaluaons,
The fourth chapter deals with the addional trade
potenal which could be mobilised between the
EU and its Mediterranean partners. There are two
good reasons to consider this issue.
The first reason is that the creation of a free
trade area with the associated institutional
changes was at the heart of the Barcelona pro-
cess. The question raised here is to determine
how far we have progressed compared with the
other major operations of this type around the
world (in particular Nafta, Asean and Mercosur).
Can we hope for major growth potential thanks
to additional trade liberalisation?
The second reason is that in their initial reac-
tions to the Arab Spring, the developed coun-
tries (including the EU) tended to say finish
opening up to trade, in particular in services,
make the associated institutional changes and
you will naturally find yourselves on the path to
sustainable growth. This position avoids any
major financial commitment and any anchoring
mechanism of the type that Eastern block coun-
tries benefited from for their transition. Is this
realistic, taking account of what has been said
previously about the Arab Spring?
This chapter is based on Pareto-type methodolo-
gy models, taking into account not only the trade
in goods, but also factor movements (migraons
and capital). It highlights several points: (i) there
is a limited potenal for addional trade gains
which does not appear to be sucient to place
Mediterranean countries in a situaon of much
stronger growth, (ii) the potenal for addional
trade with the EU is insignicant and corresponds
exactly to the level predicted by the Pareto-type
model, (iii) the trade potenal observed in the
Euromed region corresponds to the results obser-
ved in Naa, Mercosur and Asean.
Although this means that, at least on the basis of
this model, it is no longer possible to show ob-
vious backwardness in relaon to the other trade
liberalisaon operaons, it does not mean to say
that if the environmental condions change, ad-
dional trade development might not take place.
In addion, the comparison drawn with the other
zones does not take account of the quality aspect
and the level of integraon of Mediterranean
countries in the value chains developing with the
EU (level of integraon considerably weaker than
in Asean).
Several tools can be mobilised to increase the le-
vel of Mediterranean country exports, even thou-
gh today, we can consider this level to be normal
as an absolute level and in comparison with the
performance of the other free trade areas.
The rst tool consists in making progress to reduce
exchange costs and non-tari barriers (NTB). In Al-
geria, Egypt and Morocco, NTBs in tari equivalent
represent 40% on average, which is much higher
than in many other countries.
The second tool is an improvement in logiscs per-
formance, which is relavely low parcularly in-
frastructures for customs, transport, and IT.
The third tool is an improvement in governance and
the development of migraon, which is a growth
factor for exports from Mediterranean countries to
the EU. The same applies for FDI, a phenomenon
which contributes to the development of exports
from the EU to Mediterranean countries.
Finally, a strengthening of the partnership with the
EU, in areas relang to educaon, training, inno-
vaon as well as the environment, would make an
important contribuon to developing new values
based on new regional specialisaons, which would
naturally bring with them a development of trade.
-8-
In the subsequent chapters, this work presents the
individual situaons of the MPs.
Endnotes
1. Ahmed Galal (2011), Egypt Post January 2011: An
Economic Perspecve, ERF Policy Perspecve July 3.
2. Henry Marty-Gauqui (2011), Retour sur la tran-
sion dmocraque, ds et rponses to be pu-
blished in the Esprit magazine October 2011 edion.
-9- -9-
CHAPTER 1. THE EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES OF THE
REVOLUTIONS
Introducon
Up unl last year, the Mediterranean partner coun-
tries (MPs) were judged to have relavely fared well
in terms of their economic performance in the face
of the eects of the 2008 nancial crisis. The regions
growth slowed from around 4.7% in 2000-2007 to
just 3.1% in 2009 and while the US and EU stagna-
ted in deep recessions. And despite a short-term cost
in terms of a decline in potenal output growth, a
temporary rise in unemployment (which was already
high) and increased public spending (to smulate
the economy) that led to higher budget decits, the
region was considered to be on a fast-track recovery
with growth rebounding in 2010.
Yet, the polical upheaval in the Mediterranean,
which is exceponal and new to a polically dormant
region, has clearly interrupted this recovery. The near-
future of the region may be uncertain but the revol-
uons oer an opportunity for democracy and for a
shi towards a growth model based on democrac
capitalism, which can be more inclusive and more
equal in distribung its economic gains and thus put
the region on a sustainable development path. Howe-
ver, some short-term losses must be endured during
the transion before reaping the long-term gains of
democracy.
The polical and economic transformaons under-
lying the Arab spring appear to be similar in some
aspects to that of Eastern European spring of 1989.
Many lessons could be learnt, policy mistakes could
be avoided and their experience could be a bench-
mark to assess the performance of Euro-med econo-
mies during the transion.
This chapter assesses the immediate consequences of
the revoluon and also suggests reforms that ensure
a smooth transion towards democracy based on
the experience of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Economies. It mainly argues that, like the case of CEE,
the transion towards democracy in the southern
Mediterranean region, will be associated with some
short-term costs in terms of economic growth, unem-
ployment, rising current accounts and scal decits.
These short-term costs could be oset by the long-
terms gains derived from democracy, provided two
crucial sets of pre-requisites are provided: (i) polical
reforms, their transparency and the return of security.
In this respect, the announcement of a detailed poli-
cal transion road map can help reduce uncertainty
and build credibility of the polical authories, (ii) the
speed and sequence of adopon of reforms. The eco-
nomic recovery is likely to be largely dependent on
the pace of adopon of reforms, parcularly stabili-
zaon and liberalizaon policies. Another important
factor is the sequence of reforms. In fact, an impor-
tant lesson learnt from CEE is that the establishment
of sound instuons is denitely important but inial
achievements with respect to reducing macroeco-
nomic imbalances account for most of the recovery.
Finally, it is also important to address the root causes
of the revoluon and ensure that the growth model
balances growth, employment and distribuon.
This chapter is divided into 3 main secons. The rst
presents the raonale behind the idea of short-term
losses and long-term gains. The second presents an
overall assessment of the economic situaon before
and aer the polical uprising. Finally, the last secon
draws lessons from the CEE in order to ensure that
the democracy generates the expected gains.
I. Short-term losses VS long-term gains: the raonale
This secon explains that the long-term gains deri-
ved from democracy require some short-term ad-
justment costs during the transion.
I.1 Democracy and long-term gains
The literature suggests that democracy could
contribute to better economic outcomes throu-
gh several channels. First, the clear separation
of powers between executive and legislative bo-
dies helps prevent the abuse of power by politi-
-10- -10-
cians (Persson et al., 1997). Second, democracy
is often associated with improved checks and
balances mechanisms which limits rent-seeking
behavior and prevents massive theft of public
wealth (Dethier et al., 1999). In addition, be-
cause it increases accountability, democratic ins-
titutions serve to constrain political leaders to
adopt harmful opportunistic policies (Rordrik,
1999). Third, it leads to higher growth because it
lowers economic uncertainty, delivers better ins-
titutions and helps countries better adjust in the
face of external shocks (Rodrik, 1999). Fourth,
democratically elected governments have grea-
ter legitimacy to implement much required ins-
titutional reforms even if such reforms bear high
short-term costs (Giuliano et al., 2010). Finally,
democracy can also guarantee property rights
and individual liberties which foster creativity
and entrepreneurship (Leblang, 1996).
However, the idea that there is a positive cor-
relation between democracy and reforms has
been counter-argued by the experience of coun-
tries like Chile and South Korea where economic
reforms were undertaken under dictatorships.
Some arguments have thus been put forward un-
derlining that democracy leads to more reforms
if reforms are adopted sequentially, i.e. first li-
beralize then become democracies (Giavazzi and
Tabellini, 2005). Also, another strand of the li-
terature suggests that the positive effects of re-
forms on economic performance may be under-
mined by weak institutions (Rodrik et al., 2002).
In addion to these theorecal arguments, there
is strong empirical evidence that democracy can
promote long-term macroeconomic stability. Sa-
tyanath and Subramanian (2004) nd that one
standard deviaon increase in democracy can
reduce instability nearly fourfold. Moreover, the
link between macroeconomic stability and demo-
crac instuons is the most robust relaonship
compared to conict and openness. Interesngly,
Persson and Tabellini (2009) provide evidence
that a large stock of democrac capital - de-
ned as a countrys long tradion of democrac
rule as well as being surrounded by well-funco-
ning democracies - smulates growth. Moreover,
their ndings suggest the existence of a virtuous
circle whereby being a stable democracy promo-
tes economic development which helps further
consolidate democracy; this in turn leads to the
accumulaon of more democrac capital, with ad-
dional posive eects on growth and democrac
stability. In contrast, autocracies are more likely to
stagnate because they cannot iniate this virtuous
circle of consolidaon and growth. Moreover, if
they happen to become democracies, they remain
vulnerable and unstable unl they have accumula-
ted enough democrac capital.
A large avenue of research focused on the correlaon
between reforms and democracy. In this respect, the
experience of transion economies showed that de-
mocracy was able to trigger benign structural trans-
formaons that put them on a path of sustainable
development. In general, this work found evidence
that democracy facilitated economic liberalizaons
(Grosjean and Senik, 2011; Fidrmuc, 2003; and De-
thier et al., 1999). Finally, democracy has a posi-
ve and signicant impact on the adopon of both
macroeconomic reforms (Giuliano et al., 2010 and
Giavazzi and Tabellini, 2005).
I.2 Transion and short-term costs
Yet, while democracy leads to improved econo-
mic outcomes, they do not occur instantaneous-
ly. The first part of the answer is related to the
costs of transition. The puzzle that transition had
short-term costs was first witnessed during the
political transformation of the CEE. And while
economists believed that eliminating economic
distortions would lead to improved efficiency
and output increases in these countries, the op-
posite just happened. And instead of a j-shaped
short-term adjustment, deep and protracted
recessions were followed by gradual recoveries
starting only in the second half of the 1990s (Fi-
drmuc, 2003, Svejnar, 2002, Fischer and Sahay,
-11-
2000 Wyplosz, 2000, and EBRD, 1999). CEE coun-
tries experienced on average a cumulative out-
put drop of 28%. Employment adjustments were
also severe with large initial reductions in in-
dustrial employment occurring in Hungary (over
20%), followed by Slovakia (over 13%), Poland
(over 10%). The employment decline reached 15
to 30% in the 1990s for most economies. Moreo-
ver, unemployment, which was unknown befo-
rehand, soared to double-digit levels two years
after the transition (16% in Bulgaria and Poland,
12% in Hungary and Slovakia). The intial level of
inflation was high and rose further as a result of
either subsidy elimination or financial distress
(reaching 2000% in countries like Ukraine or Ka-
zakhstan). Most economies also suffered subs-
tantial current account deficits (reaching 10% of
GDP in countries like Albania and Bulgaria), and
saw their fiscal balances sharply deteriorate, in
some cases to more than 15% of GDP, as a result
of the inability to raise revenues and increased
investment spending.
The U-shaped pattern of output response re-
flected an initial output decline (and increase in
unemployment), associated with a reallocation
of factors of production as the economy made a
complete shift from central planning to market
forces and from old to new activities. This oc-
cured in a wider context of disorganization ,
resulting from the systemic changes and produc-
tion and trade disruptions (following the disap-
pearance of the state as a main market player).
In addition, stabilization policies (reduced fiscal
spending, real exchange rate adjustments) may
have contributed to the contraction of aggre-
gate demand. The growth recovery was asso-
ciated with the restructure and reorganization
of existing state-owned production which led to
productivity increase, as well as the emergence
of a private sector that absorbed some of the
employment losses from restructuring but only
sufficiently to maintain unemployment constant
until the transition is achieved (EBRD, 1999 and
Blanchard, 1997).
The second part of the answer of why reforms
take a long time to reap their benefits is related
to the political constraints to reform. First, re-
forms may be resisted ex-ante because they may
create losers, especially in terms of employment
losses and this could mobilize support for reform
(Roland, 2002 and Fidrmuc, 2000). In addition,
resistance to reform could be due to potential
high reversal costs of reforms that may turn out
to have disastrous outcomes (Roland, 2002).
When enacted, reforms may also face ex-post
political opposition from those who experience
economic hardship.
The transion to democracy in the euro-med
region is already underway. Yet, democracy is
a gradual percepon that is accumulated over
me and does not occur overnight. The process
will thus not be easy and the experience of CEE
shows that it is normal to expect some costs, un-
l stabilizaon reforms - albeit painful ones - are
undertaken and instuons are re-formed for
markets and the private sector to funcon beer.
In parcular, the instuonal reforms inevitably
take me to implement because they require not
only the enactment of new laws and regulaons
but also a fundamental change in experiences,
incenves, and atudes and most importantly
the capacity for rule enforcement.
II. Macroeconomic and sectoral esmates
II.1. Situaon before the polical uprising
1. Higher rates of growth were achieved
The recent social crisis came as a next step fol-
lowing both the economic crisis and decades of
polical stagnaon. But, one must not forget that it
hit MPs at a me when the region had started ex-
periencing marked improvements in its economic
situaon for the rst me in almost two decades.
Until late 2008, the region was considered to
have achieved remarkable growth. In the 2000-
-12-
2007 period the regional rate of growth avera-
ged 4.7% (versus 3.9% in 1995-2000), while it
accelerated to 5.2% throughout 2008. Further-
more, the region was judged to have weathered
the 2008 global financial crisis relatively well.
After decelerating to 3.1% in 2009, growth pic-
ked up in 2010 with a rate close to 4.9% equaling
pre-crisis levels. This could be explained by the
regions limited financial integration and a high
concentration of Mediterranean exports in a few
products (oil, materials and light manufactures)
that were not as sharply affected by the crisis as
capital goods (IMF, 2011).
A significant opening-trend in goods and servi-
ces trade, more openness to FDI and increased
capital attraction, positive spill-overs as well as
a series of reforms to integrate the region into
the world economy became a reality, helping the
region maintain a growth momentum above the
world average throughout the decade.
2. More openness in trade and financial flows
was apparent
The region made signicant progress in increasing
openness to foreign trade and FDI inows over the
past 15 years. As seen in gure 2, the simple average
of MFN customs dues was sharply reduced to 14%
in 2009, down from 20% in 1995 (and from 24% when
Morocco is included). The Associaon Agreements
with the EU seem to have contributed to this trend.
All MPs currently have taris with the EU below 18%
for agricultural products and 5% for non-agricultural
products (FEMISE-EIB, 2010).

According to a recent FEMISE-EIB study, the Euro-
Mediterranean free-trade area allowed for bet-
ter integraon within the global economy. In the
case of traded goods, openness (measured by the
rao of trade to GDP) has connuously increased
since 1995 for all MPs. In parcular, it increased
from 47% in 2000 to 66% in 2008. In the case of
trade in services, openness also
increased, from 17.4% to 22.1%
over the same period (FEMISE-
EIB, 2010).
Finally, foreign direct investment
inows started to pick-up in
the laer half of the decade as
showcased by gure 4. Foreign
investment was among the ma-
jor growth engines in the latest
half of the prior decade, solidi-
fying the Mediterranean vis--
vis foreign capital holders. The
Mediterranean region had gai-
Table 1. The real growth rate in MPs unl 2010
Real growth rate
(% annual average)
2000-2007 2008 2009 2010
Algeria 4,1 4,5 2,1 4,1
Egypt 4,6 7,2 4,7 5,1
Israel 3,1 4,2 0,8 4,8
Jordan 6,1 5,8 2,3 3,1
Lebanon 3,9 9,3 8,5 7,2
Morocco 5,1 5,6 4,9 3,7
Syria 6,4 4,5 6 3,2
Tunisia 4,9 4,6 3,1 3,7
Turkey 4,4 0,7 -4,8 8,9
MPs (simple average) 4,7 5,2 3,1 4,9
Source : EIU
Figure 1. Real GDP growth rate in MPs vs the World (%)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World Growth MP's Growth
Source : EIU
-13-
ned in aracveness, foreign investment ows
mulplied by almost 7 between 2002 and 2008
with connuous improvements in the business
climate and a newly found interest for emerging
sectors. As already noted by FEMISE (2009), the
improvements made by MPs considerably enhan-
ced their aracveness in relaon to the Eastern
countries as well. Countries such as Egypt, Jor-
dan and Tunisia were boding considerably well
in great part due to improved workers qualica-
ons, availability of labour and a beer business
climate. As a result, the regional share in invest-
ment ows, while sll far from the one of neigh-
bouring countries of the Gulf, was close to 6% in
2007. The internaonal crisis might have led to a
substanal reducon in FDI, but even so, foreign
investments were sll much higher in end 2010
than at the beginning of the 2000s
3. A growth model that nonetheless had impor-
tant limitaons
Shy calls were already being made about the li-
mitations of the regions growth model. This is
because :
this model was essentially based on signifi-
cant capital accumulation. The long-term GDP
growth in MPs was mainly fueled by demo-
Figure 2. Simple average of MFN customs duty by country
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Algeria Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Morocco Syria Tunisia Turkey
1995 2009
Source :World Trade Organizaon, Tari Proles, FEMISE 2005 Report : 10 years aer Barcelona, Note : MFN customs
duty data for Syria is for 2002 and 2009
Figure 3. Evoluon of the MPs Trade Openness Rao in
goods (sum of exports and imports divided by GDP)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
MP's Openess ratio
1995 2000 2005 2008
Source :COMTRADE
Figure 4. Foreign Direct Investment in MPs (2002-2010), bn US$
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Turkey
Tunisia
Morocco
Jordan
Israel
Egypt
Algeria
Source : EIU, ANIMA
-14-
graphic growth and capital accumulation while
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth contri-
buted only marginally. Regarding per capita
GDP growth, accumulation of human capital
(through education and training) had a positive
but limited effect, it was the accumulation of
physical capital that was the main driver of GDP
per capita growth especially in countries such
as Egypt, Morocco, Palestine and Turkey, set-
ting MPs apart from the rest of the developing
world (On Egypt, see Herrera et al. (2010)). As
for the contribution of TFP it was mostly nega-
tive or null in the 80s and 90s for most of the re-
gion, before starting to contribute slightly more
in the 2000s (FEMISE-EIB, 2010).
Notwithstanding the importance of the capi-
tal accumulation-based growth (through domes-
tic investment and FDI) in promoting growth,
this model failed in absorbing increasing labor
entrants. FEMISE had calculated that, at cons-
tant rates of activity, MPs would have to create
at least 22 million jobs by 2020 alone to avoid
witnessing deterioration in employment crea-
tion and unemployment rates (Femise research
report FEM3d-02). Clearly, this did not occur as
the pace of job creation in recent years has cor-
responded solely to coverage for newcomers.
Moreover, unemployment is still high and con-
sidered to be among the highest in the world in
a region where population growth is among the
fast-growing in the world, particularly among
the youth and educated (ILO, 2011). In fact,
the average unemployment rate in the region
is around 11.3% and is shockingly higher for
youth, at roughly 254.8%.
The high growth of past years also coexisted
with high inflation in some countries especially
in recent years. Mediterranean countries saw
high inflation rates in 2008 following the up-
surge in food and oil prices and strong domes-
tic demand combined with expansionary fiscal
policies in some economies. In Egypt, Jordan,
Syria and Turkey, the 2008 rate of inflation had
risen to 18.3%, 14.9%, 15.% and 10.4% respec-
tively, with a regional rate of inflation averaging
8.9% (EIU). The chronic lack of food security had
already contributed to a series of upheavals in
several MPs before the 2011 revolutions, hi-
ghlighting the reaction of Mediterranean popu-
lations to changes in price of foodstuffs.
MPs lacked an inclusive growth strategy.
In part because growth did not generate suffi-
cient jobs but also because of the high inflation
that persisted, growth did not trickle down to
the poorest which increased income inequality
and exacerbated social tensions. While poverty
remains lower than in many regions (17% of po-
pulation lived below the $2 a day poverty line
in 2005 in MENA) and has also been declining
in recent years, challenges to poverty reduction
are related to poverty persistence, a high vulne-
rability to poverty and rising inequality. In fact,
poverty in MENA is concentrated among groups
that do not benefit from growth and its reduc-
tion requires rapid economic growth (above 2
percent per capita) to (World Bank, 2010). Also,
a large share of the population lives close to
the poverty line, i.e. are vulnerable to poverty,
which means that and any external shock (ex.
rise in prices) is capable of pulling them below
the poverty line and leading to increased po-
verty. In fact, the 2008 commodity price shock
led to an increase in poverty in most countries
of the region (World Bank, 2009). Finally, the
region has been experiencing a steady increase
in inequality and suffers from an asymmetry of
poverty changes with respect to positive and
negative growth in that recessions have a larger
effect on poverty than economic booms, due
to unequal distribution of gains from growth
(World Bank, 2010).
Inefficient social policies, unequal access to
economic opportunities resulting in low health
indicators, poor access to services, are all fac-
tors that weighed on long-term development.
The social protection systems in MPs have been
highly fragmented, with poor management of
resources and varying coverage. The social secu-
rity systems cover a minority of the population,
leaving employees from the informal sector and
-15-
rural areas without protection. Additionally,
few countries have introduced unemployment
insurance systems and when they have they are
generally poorly developed. As for the regional
health and health insurance systems, they ge-
nerally offer poor coverage, especially for wor-
kers from the informal sector (FEMISE, 2009). In
its 2009 report FEMISE had already noted that
an improvement of social protection systems is
necessary to guarantee protection towards loss
of employment and that social stability in the
region is maintained. The systems based on high
price subsidies, that target the poor inefficient-
ly, should have been progressively phased out
to allow better ressource allocation.
Last but not least, widespread corruption
and weak institutions did not allow for an equal
distribution of economic gains. In fact, the al-
liance between the state and small privileged
rent-seeking business elite was perceived to be
an important driver of the political unrest (see
chapter 2).
II.2. Preliminary assessment of losses and short-
term pressures
It appears that for long, policy makers in the Me-
diterranean would only measure the potential
gains in GDP terms without dealing with the basic
issue of growth redistribution for their popula-
tions. The lack of a social vision , combined
with growth favouring an elite of few, ultimately
led to the recent upheavals. Thus, we now fo-
cus on the following question : how is growth in
the Mediterranean affected and through which
channels ?
The recovery of the Euro-med region from the
effects of the 2008 crisis was clearly interrupted
by the political turmoil in late 2010 and early
2011 in Tunisia, Egypt and, currently, in Syria
and Lybia. Overall, the countries of the regions
are in different stages in terms of their political
transition. Some like Egypt and Tunisa, the first
two countries to witness a peaceful popular
Box 1. Understanding causes of unemployment in the
Mediterranean
South-Mediterranean countries risk facing an escalang
unemployment crisis.
Already before the recent protests, unemployment rates
had been high, also because of the global economic crisis
which started in 2008 and aected employment in export-
oriented rms. Even so, the root causes of the unemploy-
ment phenomenon are deeper, they are of a structural
nature and result from economic growth strategies that
were not well-thught. Among others, the growth regimes
in the Mediterranean :
put lile emphasis on the agricultural sector, which
resulted into an exodus from rural to urban areas. This
consequently led to unbalanced growth, with capitals
and the periphery being the main to prot from develo-
pment.
were unable to channel the educated youth towards
the labour market requirements which increased unem-
ployment pressures. Furthermore, vocaonal training
iniaves were mostly underdeveloped and job seekers
were reluctant to acquire more specialized skills.
failed to integrate the private sector into economic
acvity and thus lost a considerable employment crea-
on opportunity, despite various reforms.
did not take advantage of FDI projects to create
more employment opportunies, especially regarding
qualied jobs.
failed to suciently support SMEs which are an im-
portant employment contributor
did not opt for a policy of circular migraon that al-
lows for increased labour complementaries. Thus, the
countries with a workforce surplus failed to orient their
unemployed to countries with a shortage of labour.
All these factors have contributed to Mediterranean eco-
nomies having among the highest unemployment rates
within the developing world, along with the highest jo-
bless rates for the youth and nally the lowest economic
parcipaon rate among women.
Sources : MEMRI (2011), IIF (2011)
-16-
uprising, succeeded in toppling their autocra-
tic rulers and are currently struggling with the
transition to democracy. These frontrunners or
Arab Spring countries had incurred some eco-
nomic losses due to business disruptions du-
ring the revolution but now economic activity
has somewhat resumed, even if it remains be-
low potential due to the prevalence of political
uncertainty. A more affected country is Syria
where demonstrations have been taking place
and still are since last March but are subject to
violent crackdowns from the repressive regime.
And while the economic costs are expected to
be substantial for the frontrunners, other MPs
which are not experiencing significant domestic
turmoil are still expected to be affected indi-
rectly as uncertainty surrounds the whole Me-
diterranean region.
Overall, the countries that are the most affected
in the Mediterranean region are those in which
the unrests were born, namely Egypt, Syria
and Tunisia. Meanwhile, the rest of the region
is affected to varying extent. Falls in economic
growth, rising unemployment concerns, in-
creasing fiscal deficits and falls in trade, tourism
and FDI earnings are materializing and represent
the economic impact of recent events.
If we accept that MPs are moving from an autho-
ritarian and corrupt model to a system of demo-
cratic capitalism, we shall expect the transition
to be abrupt for some countries for a period of
few years, with difficlties in the short term that
will have to be dealt with to avoid that the tran-
sition process is aborted.
Substantial decrease in growth due to
agents expectations. Investment funds could
face important difficulties for fundraising while
entrepreneurs are not expected to take any ris-
ks in the Mediterranean.
Unemployment is expected to rise in the
Arab spring countries but will remain more or
less the same in other countries of the region.
Inflation is expected to rise as international
commodity prices are likely to experience ano-
ther surge, requiring a tightening of monetary
policy.
An increase in the fiscal deficit in transition
countries due to lower revenues from indirect
taxes, the hiring of young employees (which
could lead to drastic adjustment plans in some
years), inflation, falling reserves (from tourism
and transfers), increased pressure on currencies
and rising interest rates.
The political instability and uncertainty in
recent months will most likely have a constric-
ting effect on the Mediterranean tourism as a
whole. This comes at a time when tourism pers-
pectives after the international crisis, and right
before the Arab-Spring, were quite positive.
Now, foreigners are expected to prefer spend
their holidays in destinations with a lesser risk
of social upheaval, demonstrations and violen-
ce, thus affecting not only the core countries of
the political revolution but perhaps neighbou-
ring ones as well through slower growth. Early
indications point to a 7% fall in value for the sec-
tor following an 8.3% fall in tourist inflows,
a decrease in FDI following political insta-
bility of the last months and the ever-lasting ef-
fects of the international crisis. Currently, FDI is
estimated to fall by 4.6% after an initial fall of
12.5% in 2010. Moreover, when Turkey is exclu-
ded the drop amounts to 19.6% and the region
risks becoming insignificant in terms of capital
attraction. This comes at a time when at the glo-
bal level, FDI projects were starting to be reins-
tated and worldwide flows were picking-up,
though still timidly. Hence, the expected trend
in the MPs is not similar to the global trend and
the number of investment projects in the Medi-
terranean risks of eroding.
A rate of export growth that is lower than the
corresponding pre-internaonal crisis one (export
growth esmated at 14.4% in 2011 versus approxi-
mately 23% for the 2006-2008 period). The limited
trade es between Southern Mediterranean eco-
nomies limits contagion through this channel.
-17-
As a consequence, current account deficits
are expected to increase from 1.8% of GDP in
2010 to 5% of GDP in 2011 in countries of the
Arab Spring.
1. The sharp slowdown in short-run growth in
the frontrunners of the revolutions is also af-
fecting the overall region
Political uprisings since the end of 2010 and
early 2011 in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria already
had a substantial economic cost, following pro-
duction stoppages, tourist outflows (due to the
travel restrictions issued on these countries) and
uncertainty which has triggered massive capital
outflows from stock markets and still weighs on
investment decisions. These factors are likely to
lead to a decline in the rate of growth in 2011 to
1.2% for Egypt (versus 5.1% in 2010), 0.2% for
Syria (versus 3.2% in 2010) and -0.7% for Tuni-
sia (versus 3.7% in 2010). Uncertainty in these
countries is very likely to harm other countries in
the region, putting a toll on the overall regions
growth which is expected to fall to 2.6% in 2011
from 4.9% in 2010.
Although it is still early to quantify the final im-
pact, while it is also difficult to show the exact
share of responsibility of the regional climate
in macroeconomic evolutions, recent estima-
tes suggest a worsening or a deceleration in the
post-international crisis recovery.
In the frontrunners of the Arab-Spring:
An immediate cost was incurred through
production stoppages and damage to some
physical properties. In the case of Tunisia, riots
during the first weeks had cost 3 billion dinars
to the economy (1.6 billion euros), already
equivalent to 4% of GDP. About 2 billion dinars
were due to the stop of domestic economic ac-
tivity. In the case of Egypt, production stoppa-
ges led to losses in manufacturing, construction
and tourism. Greater Cairo suffered most of the
losses (41.2% of value added in manufacturing
and extractions and 82.7% in construction).
Losses in the food processing industry were al-
most 18% of value added. Also, domestic ports,
which remained temporarily inactive, saw most
of their business deterred to neighboring coun-
tries such as Malta and Israel. Such disruptions
contributed to negative productivity in Egypt
and Tunisia (see table 3). Such disruptions con-
tributed to negative productivity (see table 3)
and also slower year-on-year growth in exports
for end-2010.
Furthermore, several former regime gures, now
under arrest or invesgaon, had es to major rms.
There was a deep relaonship between business-
men and government ocials in Egypt and Tunisia;
in the former, more than 70 known businessmen
were part of the old parliament (as ocial members
or state allies) while in in the laer, about 180 rms
were controlled by the Ben Ali clan (Reuters). Thus,
while the removal of old regimes could signify that
more FDI inows occur in the medium-run, rms are
now concerned about falling under scruny by the
new authories and have cancelled or postponed
producon and investment decisions.
Also, Egypt and Tunisia are those most aec-
ted by capital oulow and halng of FDI-powered
projects with ows falling respecvely by an es-
mated 59.4% to 2.6 bn US$ and 35.3% to 1.1bn
US$ in 2011. Both countries imminently need to try
averng delays in current investment projects and
restore their image to the outside world for foreign
investors to return. If not, they risk seeing conta-
gious eects from the oulow of capital in the form
of insucient internal demand and reduced oppor-
tunies for economies of scale leading to addio-
nal dicules for a proper growth rebound to take
place. Finally, Syria appears to be among the most
aected as well, with intenons on FDI declining by
approximately two-thirds in early 2011 in a climate
of rising tensions (ANIMA).
Meanwhile, the Libyan crisis also increased do-
mesc pressures through the return of migrants,
Egypans and Tunisians represenng the largest
share of migrants in Libya (respecvely by 58% and
-18-
12% in 2010). Following turmoil in Libya, about
100000 returnees have been esmated entering
Egypt and Tunisia.
Moreover, tourism, a major industry in all
3 countries, has endured an important setback
with the outflow of tourists following the revo-
lutions. Not surprisingly, Egypt and Tunisia are
expected to experience the largest decline in
tourism. Egypt, after enduring an instant loss
of 1bn US$ since one million tourists left the
country when the upheaval erupted, is facing a
considerable attendance fall. Tourism in Egypt
dropped by 28% from January to July following
the revolution according to the latest figures
from the Egyptian Tourism Authority (ETA). The
country received 5.7 million tourists from Ja-
nuary to July compared to 8.2 million visitors
during the same period in 2010. The number of
UAE visitors to Egypt declined by 58%, visitors
from from Kuwait dropped 52%, Saudis by 48%
and Jordanians by 17% per cent from January to
July. The number of Arab tourists visiting Egypt
declined by 18.6% while in July alone, their num-
bers fell by 28.5%. But, there are expectations
that with the removal of Mubarak tourism could
bounce back in the coming months (Gulfnews.
com, 2011). If not, this might generate a subs-
tantial decrease in foreign exchange reserves
and a serious hit to the balance of payments. As
for Tunisia, it was announced that revenues and
visits had fallen by roughly 40% in January 2011,
furthermore, the number of tourists dropped
by an additional 40% from January to mid-April
compared to 2010. This trend was expected to
continue for the rest of the year ; the fall in tou-
rism volume was expected to go as far as 50%
with a corresponding 25% decline in tourism
earnings. Recent news suggest that the tourism
sector has plummeted by more than 50%. A 2
billion US$ loss in tourism revenues and trade
has been announced, in great part due to the
war in Libya, taking into account that two mil-
Table 2. Main macroeconomic indicators in MPs
Real GDP growth Unemployment (% of labour force) Fiscal Balance Current Account
Balance
(% change) Overall Youth (% of GDP) (% of GDP)
2010 2011* 2010 2011* 2009 2010 2011* 2010 2011*
Arab Spring Frontrunners
Egypt 5,1 1,2 9 12,2 27,2 -8,1 -10,4 -2 -3,1
Syria 3,2 0,2 8,3 8,1 23 -4,4 -8 -1,3 -4
Tunisia 3,7 -0,7 13 16 28,5 -4,6 -9,1 -2,2 -7,9
Average 4 0,2 10,1 12,1 26,2 -5,7 -9,2 -1,8 -5
Rest of MPs
Algeria 4,1 4,6 10 9,7 21,5 -1,2 -2,1 8,4 10
Israel 4,8 4,3 6,7 5,8 n.a -3,7 -2,4 2,9 0,4
Jordan 3,1 3 12,5 12,3 26,8 -8,2 -10,8 -3,9 -4,8
Lebanon 7,2 1,3 9,2 9,2 21,5 -7,4 -9,9 -22,4 -28,5
Morocco 3,7 3,8 9,1 9,2 24,9 -4,7 -6 -3,2 -8,1
Turkey 8,9 5,7 12 10,3 -3,6 -1,5 -6,5 -9,8
Average 5,3 3,8 9,9 9,4 23,7 -4,8 -5,5 -4,1 -6,8
Total MPs Average 4,9 2,6 10 10,3 24,8 -5,1 -6,7 -3,4 -6,2
Source : EIU, The Instute of Internaonal Finance
-19-
lion out of the seven million tourists that visit
Tunisia annually are from Libya (The Big Issue,
2011). Negative developments in the Egyptian
and Tunisian tourism sectors are also joined by
those of Syria. The Syrian tourism sector show-
cases a very low amount of booking suggesting
a massive impact for the year to come for a sec-
tor that represents 12% of GDP.
Last but not least, uncertainty prevents eco-
nomic agents from making informed long-term
decisions about consumpon and investment
(and savings). Regarding Syria for instance, Qatar
announced that it would put on hold the cons-
trucon of two electricity plant while foreign in-
vestors are no longer invesng. In all 3 countries,
domesc spending (both private consumpon
and investment) have sharply slowed down.
These elements contribute to a rate of growth
falling to 1.2% for Egypt (versus 5.1% in 2010),
0.2% for Syria (versus 3.2% in 2010) and -0.7%
for Tunisia (versus 3.7% in 2010).
Meanwhile, in the rest of the region, disrup-
tion in economic activity varies from country to
country while it is limited overall:
Foreign direct investment is likely to be im-
pacted as foreign investors adopt a more cau-
ous stance. But, not all MPs are in the same
state of aairs and a dierenaon among them
shall be made : Firstly, one nds a group of coun-
tries concerned by polical stability issues thou-
gh to a lesser magnitude, they include Morocco
and Israel. The former has been facing protests
recently for more democrac reforms and has
been mostly aected by the April 29th bombing
which has tarnished its image of stability and sca-
red investors, in the short-run at least, leading
to an esmated FDI decline of 10% in 2011 to
1.95bn US$. The laer is expected to see a slight
increase to 5.8bn US$ which remains far from the
15.3bn US$ worth of FDI in 2006. The cohesion of
the coalion in Israeli polics is being constantly
put to test and the ousng of Hosni Mubarak
provides scepscism as to future Israli relaons
with its neighbours, a fact that might explain the
recence of foreign investors.
Secondly, there is a group of countries with
solid investment outlook for 2011 due to an
image of political stability that has not been yet
affected, either due to democratic efforts or be-
cause of the wealth of the domestic economy,
guaranteed to genera-
te revenue even when
the region is at an uns-
table phase. Among
this group are Turkey
and Jordan. The first
has traditionally been
a case apart in terms
of FDI attraction, pri-
marily due to the size
of its economy and the
efforts conducted in
recent years in terms
Figure 5. Stock of migrants in Libya for 2010, by origin country

Algeria
0% ROW
17%
Tunisia
12%
Turkey
0%
Palestine
8%
Israel
0%
Jordan
0%
Egypt
58%
Lebanon
0%
Morocco
0%
Syri
a
Algeria Egypt
Israel Jordan
Lebanon Morocco
Syria Tunisia
Turkey Palestine
ROW
Source :Ratha and Shaw (2007) updated with addional data for 71 desnaon coun-
tries as described in the Migraon and Remiances Factbook 2011.
Table 3. Total factor producvity growth in MPs
2009 2010 2011*
Egypt 2,6 1,8 -3,3
Tunisia 0,7 0,6 -3,3
Algeria -1,4 0,7 1,9
Israel -1,6 1,3 0,5
Jordan -1,2 -0,7 -0,6
Morocco 2,2 -0,5 -0,1
Turkey -5,8 3,3 0,4
Source: EIU, esmaons for 2011
-20-
of increasing macroeconomic and political sta-
bility. Thus, foreign capital inflows in Turkey
should increase by 29.4% in 2011 to 12bn US$,
which remains however far below the pre-crisis
value of FDI. As for Jordan it faces an FDI growth
estimated at 6%.
The polical and social climate in the region
could aect on the number of tourists for MPs
where unrest has not occurred. For instance,
in Lebanon, recent data from the Ministry of
Tourism suggests tourist arrivals in the rst six
months of the year were down by almost 20%
compared to the same period of 2010. It ap-
pears, the impact aected the hotel industry,but
also real estate, construcon, transport, retail
and other services sectors (EIU). But, at the me
this report was wrien, esmaons indicate
that the tourism sector in the rest of MPS has
not been overly aected. In Morocco, prior to
the April 29th bombing, esmaons were poin-
ng towards an 8% revenue growth for the sec-
tor, with arrivals about 10% higher than in 2010.
However, since the aack there was some con-
cerns as to tourists progressively cancelling their
trips with a possibility that this would aect the
service balance. But, tourist revenue in Morocco
in the January-July period rose by 8.5% to 33.1
billion dirhams. Interesngly, one should note
that the Arab spring is fuelling a Turkish sum-
mer as Saudis, Kuwais and other tourists from
the Gulf states who would have previously spent
summers in Syria or Egypt look further north.
Bookings from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were up
by 75% and slightly before the beginning of Ra-
madan, hotels in Istanbul and the northwestern
city of Bursa were fully booked (Guardian.co.uk,
Monday 25 July 2011).
Overall, data on tourist trends for the en-
re region is limited and mostly seasonal which
means that the nal amplitude for the year 2011
is sll far from known.
2. Unemployment pressures on the rise in Egypt, Sy-
ria and Tunisia
The revolutions have shown clearly that unem-
ployment across MPs has increased and it has
done so more than in the past. Meanwhile, the
resulting political instability impedes on invest-
ments that provide employment creation op-
portunities. Thus, the Mediterranean region fa-
ces an immediate challenge : it must match the
increasing demographic growth and the rise in
the labour force in a context of instability that
halts economic activity and thus employment.
In 2011, the number of jobs in the region is ex-
pected to increase less than the workforce (2.2%
versus 2.7%). This, along with the recent layoffs
of temporary workers following the revolutions,
explains why unemployment has been on the
rise throughout 2011 after marking a fall during
the prior year. As a consequence, the total num-
ber of the unemployed is expected to grow by
more than 6.5% in the entire region (figure 7).
A new level of unemployment is expected to be
reached that is above the 12% mark in selected
MPs, primarily those from which the protests
originated.
In Egypt, Syria and Tunisia the revolutions brou-
ght an immediate increase in unemployment fi-
gures. The average rate of unemployment in the-
se three countries increased throughout the first
months of the year and is anticipated to reach
12.1% in 2011 (versus 10.1% in 2010). In Egypt,
Table 4. Mediterranean partners exports to their
neighbours in 2009
Exports (value)
share in total
exports (%)
MPs to Algeria $2 873 015 027 2,15
MPs to Egypt $3 604 810 799 2,69
MPs to Israel $177 054 218 0,13
MPs to Jordan $312 386 427 0,23
MPs to Lebanon $1 401 861 932 1,05
MPs to Morocco $1 607 880 994 1,2
MPs to Palesne $167 389 353 0,12
MPs to Syria $2 826 064 014 2,11
MPs to Tunisia $1 478 131 612 1,1
MPs to Turkey $4 285 120 700 3,2
Source : COMTRADE
-21-
as the private sector laid-off many temporary
workers, there was a sharp increase in unem-
ployment (to approximately 12% in Q3-FY11 up
from 9% the prior year) particularly for men and
in urban areas (16% up from 12.5% a year ago).
Meanwhile, in Tunisia, it was announced that the
number of jobless people would probably reach
700000 in 2011, a 34% increase compared to the
520000 jobless in the prior year. During the re-
volutions, 10000 jobs were already lost, while
some positions remain frail, meanwhile the Li-
byan conflict saw the return of thousands of Tu-
nisians which added pressures to the domestic
labour market (TunisiaLive, 2011). Additionally,
Box 2. Current Account decit widens but trade channel
has limited eects
In MPs, the external current account decit is expected to
widen from a simple average of -3.4% of GDP in 2010 to
--6.2% in 2011. This deterioraon is greatly due to a sharp
drop in earnings from tourism, in countries such as Egypt,
Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia, and a substanal increase in
the import bill following the rise in oil prices (especially in
Jordan, Morocco, and Lebanon) (IIF, 2011).
Following the recent uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia one
would ask if exports would constute an important chan-
nel that would negavely aect growth. Surprisingly, one
should note that while in Egypt the disrupon to exports is
considerable the same cannot be said for most countries
of the region.
On the one hand, Algeria and Turkey keep following their
post-internaonal crisis upward trend with impressive
export-led growth. In the former, this is greatly due to rising
oil-exports, which tradionally amount to more than 90%
of Algerian total exports, following consecuve oil-price in-
creases. As for the laer, improved condions in European
markets and relave domesc polical stability have contri-
buted to 26.5% percent year-on-year rise in exports in April
2011. Overall, in the rst four months of 2011, exports rose
by 22.4% to 43.3 billion U.S $. To a lesser extent, Morocco
also keeps beneng from the rise in trade. In 2010, most
export sectors saw a rise in traded value (with the excepon
of energy exports) and preliminary data for early 2011 sug-
gests that exports are ancipated to rise by 13.5%. This rate
of export growth is however lower than the one achieved
in 2010 or prior to the internaonal crisis, a fact that also
applies to the Lebanese and Syrian cases which registered
posive growth in 2011 though below tradional levels.
The limited impact of uprisings on exports of the rest
of the region can be partly explained by the fact that
MPs exports to their neighbours only account for a
marginal share of total exports. As highlighted in
Table 4, MPs exports to Egypt amounted to roughly
3.6bn US$ in 2009 which is less than 3% of regional
exports to the entire world. Meanwhile, regional ex-
ports to Tunisia only amount to 1.1% of total exports.
Thus, the limited South-South trade integration has
also reduced the risk of contagion from the closing of
ports and reduced economic activity in countries of
the Arab spring.
Nonetheless, imports are increasing throughout the
region, sl faster than exports, increasing the disequi-
librium in the external balance. One thing appears for
certain, the region is sll an import-dependent one, and
would gain by increasing its exports volume with major
trading partners such as Europe. Upl now, a number
of MPs have build on exisng agreements to promote
integraon with foreign markets. But such eorts have
mostly favoured European exports while access to mar-
kets that would provide for increased export potenal
for MPs (such as agriculture) remain closed. Unl now
there have only been limited cases in which MPs took
advantage of their geographical proximity to the EU to
promote exports, an excepon to be found in the texle
and fast-fashion industry.
Figure 6. Trade Balance, million US$, 2010 and 2011
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
Algeria Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Morocco Syria Tunisia Turkey
2010 2011
Source :EIU, esmates for 2011
-22-
growing employment demand is also expected
from the rising inflow of university graduates.
Thus, unemployment is estimated to reach an
unprecedented 16% in 2011, from 13% the prior
year (EIU).
But, in the rest of the region unemployment is
expected to remain close to its 2010 levels. This
relative resilience can be explained by the fact
that these countries have not endured revolu-
tions that are of the same magnitude as in Egypt
and Tunisia. Revolts, while still expressing a so-
cial inconfort, have been of a lesser magnitude.
Meanwhile, events in the core countries of the
Arab spring have pushed the authorities in the
rest of the region to adopt measures that could
help avoid political instability in the short-run.
For example, the recent Algerian Complementa-
ry Finance Act should provide support to small
firms for more employment creation in the nor-
thern territory, in high altitude and in southern
provinces that have been neglected in the past.
It should also ensure the expansion of the exis-
ting price subsidy mechanisms for consumption
products to help Algerians in difficulties.
One could fear that the revolutions in Egypt,
Syria and Tunisia could signify an increase in
returning migrants to other MPs putting addi-
tional pressures to the domestic markets. But,
as seen in figure 9, the interdependency of Me-
diterranean labour markets is limited at best.
The stock of MPs migrants in the three selec-
ted economies is comprised of algerians (41%),
moroccans (25%), jor-
danians (22%) and le-
banese (12%). But the
share of migrants who
chose to migrate in the
countries of the Arab
spring is very small,
only 1.1% for Algeria
followed by 1% for Jor-
dan, 0.6% for Lebanon
and 0.3% in Morocco.
One should note at this
point that Palestine is an exception to this rule.
About 53.3% of palestinian migrants are located
in the Arab-spring group of countries, thus, one
should not rule out that the revolutions could
mark an increase in returning Palestinian mi-
grants to domestic territories or to other parts
of the Mediterranean.
But overall, in the rest of the region unemploy-
ment is expected to average 9.4% in 2011, a sli-
ght decrease compared to the rate of 9.9% in
2010, considerably less than in the core coun-
tries of the revolutions. Still, the employment
issue remains a major challenge for the Mediter-
ranean as a whole. In that respect, for job crea-
tion to be sustainable and not just the result of
sporadic attempts to ease short-term concerns,
Figure 7. Labour force, employed and unemployed in MPs (% variaon, an.)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Labour force
(% change)
Employment
(% change)
Unemployed
(% change)
Source : FEMISE calculaons, EIU
Figure 8. Origin of all Mediterranean migrants (excluding Pales-
ne) located in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia (2010, by origin country)

Morocco
25%
(0.3%)
Lebanon
12%
(0.6%)
Jordan
22%
(1%)
Algeria
41%
(1.1%)
Algeria
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on Ratha and Shaw
(2007) ,Migraon and Remiances Factbook 2011.
Note : In parenthesis, rao of migrants who chose to mi-
grate in the countries of the Arab spring divided by total
number of migrants.
-23-
a competitive private sector is probably needed
(World Bank, 2009).
3. Inaon is likely to increase following interna-
onal prices
As mentioned earlier, inflation has been a per-
sistent problem in some of the Euro-med coun-
tries over the past few years. Headline and core
inflation have accelerated recently across the re-
gion, mainly driven by higher international com-
modity prices which are expected to increase
even further in the short-term. In general, in-
flation is primarily driven by higher global food
prices which filter through domestic food prices,
representing a large share of household budgets
in MPs. The pass-through from international to
domestic food price levels is high for countries
such as Egypt and Palestine, but rather low in
Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, a 1% increase in in-
ternational food prices results into the domestic
price of food rising by more than 0.44% in Egypt,
0.39% in Jordan and Morocco, 0.18% in Lebanon
and 0.06% in Tunisia (World Bank, 2011).
As a result, the year-on-year inflation rate is
expected to rise by 5.7% in the entire region,
inflationary pressures will be substantial in
Egypt, Syria and Tunisia (8.1% anticipated rise
on average) while they will remain limited in
the rest of MPs (4.5% rise expected for 2011). If
such price shocks prove to be persistent, central
banks will have to adopt a tightened stance of
monetary policy. This could prove problematic
for relaxing monetary policy required to boost
domestic economic activity in the face of a pos-
sible recession. Upward pressure on policy rates
will also come from a rising global interest rate
environment and increasing sovereign risk pre-
miums. A limited number of oil-rich economies,
mainly Algeria, are expected to benefit from oil-
price rises, but for the vast majority of oil-im-
porting economies the rise in oil and food prices
could materialize into a loss of roughly 3% of
GDP (IMF, 2011b).
Commodity price increases have implications for
the sustainability of subsidy schemes, which are
widespread in some countries of the region and
exert continuous pressure on the fiscal budget.
In Egypt for instance, food subsidies amount to
about 2% of GDP while fuel subsidies are close
to 8%. Both subsidy systems are considered to
be poorly targeted towards the poor, benefit the
rich more than the poor and suffer from consi-
derable leakages (World Bank, 2010). In light of
recent developments, previous plans to remove
subsidies have been suspended in the short-
term and subsidies are not expected to decline,
if not increase, in 2011. In Egypt, an increase in
subsidies of about 0.2% of GDP was announced
due to the rise in global food prices (World
Bank, 2011). Meanwhile, Moroccan authorities
announced that US$2 billion worth of subsidies
would be injected to avoid massive price-rises
for staples. Similarly, in Jordan additional subsi-
dies worth US$ 550 million were announced to
Table 5. Inaon and Fiscal Balances in MPs
Inaon (CPI) Fiscal Balance
(av, %) (% of GDP)
2010 2011* 2010 2011*
Arab Spring Frontrunners
Egypt 11,1 13,3 -8,1 -10,4
Syria 4,4 7 -4,4 -8
Tunisia 4,4 4 -4,6 -9,1
Average 6,6 8,1 -5,7 -9,2
Rest of MPs
Algeria 3,9 4 -1,2 -2,1
Israel 2,7 3,4 -3,7 -2,4
Jordan 5 6,4 -8,2 -10,8
Lebanon 4 5,2 -7,4 -9,9
Morocco 1 2,2 -4,7 -6
Turkey 8,6 5,9 -3,6 -1,5
Average 4,2 4,5 -4,8 -5,5
Total average 5 5,7 -5,1 -6,7
Source : EIU
-24-
subsidize the price of sugar,
as well as of rice and frozen
poultry.
Several MPs have, or are ex-
pected, to revise their fiscal
laws and increase their fis-
cal deficits to adress social
constraints. Furthermore, ci-
vil service wage and pension
increases, additional cash
transfers, tax reductions, and
other spending increases are
being put in place to prevent
discontent arising from regio-
nal instability and socio-eco-
nomic conditions. For instance in Syria, a decree
was issued providing government employees
pay rises within the 20%30% range, while pay-
ments to retired military personnel and govern-
ment employees were promised. Meanwhile, in
Jordan the salary of civil servants, the military,
and retirees was raised by 28US$ a month, for
a total cost of 233 million US$. Such measure
are considered essential to at least provide for
a short-term relief. But as a consequence, fiscal
budgets are again being strained by such expan-
sionary fiscal measures.
All of the MPs have been operating with persis-
tent negative fiscal balances. Only Algeria, Israel
and Turkey manage to relatively contain their
deficit, estimations for 2011 suggest a fiscal de-
ficit respectively of -2.1%, -2.4% and -1.5%. Lea-
ving these countries aside, 2011 prospects point
to a deterioration of
deficits to minimize
the social impact. The
political upheaval in
the region, combined
with weaker economic
activity, is expected to
widen the fiscal defi-
cits of the frontrunners
of the Arab Spring to
an average -9.2% deficit in 2011, from -5.7% in
2010. But now that MPs are running even higher
deficits there is a danger of making budgetary
cuts in initiatives that would favour infrastruc-
tural development and employment creation.
On the whole, the long-awaited fiscal reforms
will have to wait a little longer in those coun-
tries, especially in Egypt were the fiscal balance
is anticipated to reach a negative -10.4% in 2011
according to EIU.
4. Ouall on debt, foreign reserves and exchange
rates
Naturally, the extent of the deterioration of the
fiscal balance has an impact on debt. More so
than an economic issue, the extent of the dete-
rioration of public accounts can increase threats
to the social stability of MPs. While some MPs
can afford this extra spending, others have a
Table 6. Fiscal Policy Measures Announced between end-2010/ late March 2011
Subsidies
Social Welfare
and/or Cash
Transfers
Government
Salary/Benet
Increases
Tax Breaks
or Other
Annual Cost
(Percent of
GDP)
Algeria Yes Yes Yes
Increased
public spending
by 25% of GDP
Egypt Yes Yes Yes 0.8 of GDP
Jordan Yes Yes Yes Yes 2.1 of GDP
Lebanon Yes 1.0 of GDP
Morocco Yes Yes
Syria Yes Yes Yes
2.0 to 3.0 of
GDP
Tunisia Yes Yes Yes 1.4 of GDP
Source : IMF (2011c), World Bank (2011), Notes: Annual cost does not include
higher costs of preexisng subsidies owing to higher commodity prices.
Figure 9. MPs government debt, sub-group averages (% of GDP)
40
50
60
70
80
90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MPs Egypt, Syria, Tunisia Rest of the region
Source : FEMISE calculaons, EIU
-25-
very limited fiscal space and will have to rely on
external financing that is expected to put an ad-
ditional burden on debt.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected
to remain stable in the region as a whole. In 2010
it averaged 52.4% of GDP and is expected to sli-
ghtly increase to 53.6% of GDP in 2011. Even so,
in the countries of the upheavals the rao has
been on the rise and could go as far as 76.4% of
GDP in 2011, up from 67.6% in 2010. The country
with the highest total public debt in terms of GDP
among the three countries being Egypt, with an
ancipated 92% debt/GDP rao for 2011 (EIU).
Even so, MPs have in the past used a share of their
growth to clear debts (FEMISE, 2009). Thus most
of them have regained some space and remain
below the levels that were prevalent 5 years ago.
Thus, although the forecasts for 2011 indicate an
increase in public debt in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia
the levels will sll remain well
below those of the recent
past. This is a situaon that
allows for some leeway when
compared to the one of large
industrialized countries.

As for external debt a similar
pattern has been followed,
with stable regional perspec-
tives at 31.5% of GDP and an
increase in the countries of
the Arab Spring.Meanwhile
a very slight decrease in the
rest of the region is expected
(to 34.5% of GDP) though
this is primarily due to the
considerable reduction in
Israeli external debt. Apart
from Israel, Jordan and Alge-
ria, who managed to reduce
their debt in relation to GDP,
all other MPs are expected
to see a rise. Thus, some
MPs could face difficulties in
servicing debt denominated
in foreign currency. If the trade balance stays
negative and if foreign capital remains hesitant
towards the Mediterranean then a lack of liqui-
dities could manifest and foreign reserves could
be reduced.
In most MPs, exchange rates, even those of the
Arab Spring, have not come under signicant
pressure with serious repercussions on external
sustainability. However, if the unrest connues,
then further downward pressure could occur even
in countries where currencies have not been af-
fected (EIU). If foreign capital remains hesitant
towards the Mediterranean, then a shortage of
liquidity could occur and foreign reserves could be
diminished.
However, this sustainability of exchange rate appears
to have been achieved at the expense of foreign re-
Table 7. External debt in MPs
Total external debt Total external debt
(% of GDP) (bn US$)
(%
variaon)
2010 2011* 2010 2011* 2010-11
Arab Spring Frontrunners
Egypt 15,7 14,5 35,3 36,9 4,5
Syria n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Tunisia 53,2 56,3 21,5 25,9 20,5
Average (weighted) 18,1 19,5 28,3 32,8 15,901
Rest of MPs
Algeria 2,9 2,4 4,3 4,4 2,3
Israel 48,7 43,7 106,1 107,9 1,7
Jordan 29,4 26,8 7,3 7,3 0
Lebanon n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Morocco 29,7 30 27,1 29,6 9,2
Turkey 39,6 43,8 290,8 313,9 7,9
Average (weighted) 34,9 34,5 86,9 92,9 6,9
Total average (weighted) 31,5 31,5 70,1 75,7 8
Source : EIU
-26-
serve depleon. This already appears to
be the case in Egypt where the Central
Bank drew around US$ 8 billion of o-
cial reserves between January and May
2011, bringing ocial reserves down to
US$ 27 billion, its lowest level in three
years, and covering only 6.5 months of
imports. The import cover rao is expec-
ted to increase to 7.5 months in 2011.
In Tunisia, , Foreign exchange reserves
excluding gold in Tunisia fell to 9.39bn
US$ in April 2011, equivalent to a 13.1%
decrease in three months (EIU). Total in-
ternaonal reserves would cover for 4.4
months of imports but their fall signies
that the import coverage rao could fall
below 4 months for Tunisia The exchange rates are li-
kely to come under further downward pressure, as a
result of a worsening of market expectaons due to
uncertainty. A large depreciaon could induce large
pass-through eects to domesc inaon. Alter-
navely, intervenon through reserves to limit the
depreciaon is dependent on the stock of foreign
exchange reserves.
As for the rest of MPs the situation is not wor-
risome. Most particularly, in the case of Algeria
foreign exchange reserves amount to more than
3 years of imports of goods and services and are
still on the rise following the continuous increase
in oil-prices.
Finally one should note that regarding exchange
rates, if a situation of unrest is sustained in most
MPs, then downward pressures could be applied
even in countries where currencies have remai-
ned resilient until recently (EIU).
5. Higher risk in financial and credit markets,
threats to banking sector stability
We shall note that the share of internaonal nance is
rather limited in the region with few excepons. The-
re is an important dilemma that MPs have to face: on
the one hand, the use of internaonal capital markets
is needed to cover nancing needs and maintain the
volume of investment, on the other hand, it requires
converbility of the capital account, hence more vola-
lity and dependence towards market expectaons,
in a context of social and polical tension.
One must note that challenges to macroecono-
mic stabilityif not addressed quicklycould
undermine confidence, lead to a wi-
dening of credit-spreads and conse-
quently derail the pursuit of any new
social agenda. Uncertainty brings ex-
treme caution from foreign investors
who choose to halt FDI and portfolio
flows, affecting growth and the fi-
nancing of current account deficits,
consequently putting non-negligible
pressures on the credit profiles of MPs
such as Egypt.
Table 8. Exchange rates (monthly, average), domesc currency to US$ and
2010-8 2011-1 2011-8
Variaon
(2010-08 to
2011-08)
Egypt:US$ (av) 5,69 5,80 5,95 4,6
Israel:US$ (av) 3,79 3,58 3,54 -6,6
Morocco:US$ (av) 8,57 8,32 7,86 -8,3
Tunisia:US$ (av) 1,48 1,44 1,38 -6,8
Turkey:US$ (av) 1,57 1,56 1,60 1,5
Israel: (av) 4,89 4,79 5,09 4,1
Morocco: (av) 11,07 11,14 11,27 1,8
Tunisia: (av) 1,89 1,92 1,97 4,2
Turkey: (av) 1,92 2,09 2,30 19,7
Source : EIU, July for Egypt,
Figure 10. Import cover in MPs (in months of imports)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Source : FEMISE calculaons, EIU, IMF
-27-
The turmoil across Arab nations has raised risk
premia in the financial markets of all MPs. Among
MPs, CDS spreads have widened for Egypt (311
bps), which was more integrated in international
finance than some of its neighbours, and Leba-
non (351 bps), but remain within lower levels
in the rest of the region even if they are on the
increase (140 basis points for Israel, 172 basis
points for Morocco and 176 basis points for Tuni-
sia). Furthermore, the levels attained across the
region remain well below the spreads in Ireland,
Portugal, and Greece. Even so, the Mediterra-
nean region appears to be witnessing a repri-
cing of the political risk, increasing the volati-
lity of agents anticipations through the rise CDS
spreads (Wall Street Journal, 2011).
Stock markets throughout the Mediterranean
were hit hard by the unrest, particularly in the
first half of March 2011. One must note that MPs
markets have traditionally not attracted a con-
siderable share of international portfolio flows,
due to relative lack of development and access.
But, both Egypt and Tunisia had become a des-
tination of interest for investors. Following the
revolution the Egyptian stock market suspended
its activity and then saw a massive cash outflow,
meanwhile the impact on the Tunisian stock ex-
change could be qualified as an unparalleled one
as well.
The problem is the following: investors might be
wary of companies that are too associated
with the old regimes. As noted earlier, in Egypt,
more than 70 top businessmen were part of the
old parliament while in Tunisia about 180 com-
panies were controlled by associates of the Ben
Ali clan. As a result, a blacklist of companies as-
sociated with the old regimes has been in the
hands of new authorities. But, it appears that
a certain number of succesful companies had
maintained good relations with the prior poli-
tical regimes. Thus, some also show concerns
that more capital outflows could be follow ing,
resulting from the recent effocts conducted by
Mediterranean countries domestic authorities
(Reuters, 2011).
Table 9. Selected CDS Spreads, basis points, 5-year maturies
End Dec, 2010 Recent data*
Egypt 243 311
Israel 115 140
Lebanon 305 351
Morocco 126 172
Tunisia 120 176
Turkey 140 174
Ireland 609 792
Portugal 501 798
Greece 1010 2100
Source : IIF (2011), CMA (2011), * data from Q2 2011
Figure 11. MPs stock-market developments
Source : Bloomberg
-28-
Investors are also preoccupied with the situaon in
Arab countries in which there have been protests,
but no regime change as in the case of Morocco.
The stock-markets of Jordan, Lebanon and Mo-
rocco also followed downward paths, suggesng
the existence of a general lack of condence of in-
vestors towards a polically tense region.
Prior to the revoluons, the MPs displayed similar
indicators with respect to banking sector cost and
performance. As seen in Table 10 overhead costs
as a share of total assets were in the region rou-
ghly around 2.4%, close to high income countries.
However they were much higher in Egypt (3.9%)
and Turkey (3.7%). The net interest margin avera-
ged 4.1%, but dropped to 3.2% when Algeria was
excluded, which means that the cost of nancial in-
termediaon is closer to developed countries and
lower than the one in other lower middle income
economies. Finally, regarding the cost to income
rao, the Mediterranean average bodes well, with
an overall at 49.1%.
Regarding banking performance, the Return on
Assets (ROA) averaged 6.4% for MPs, but dropped
to 2% when excluding Algeria and Tunisia. In the
Return on Equity (ROE) indicator, one would nd
solid performance of banks in Tunisia, Algeria and
Turkey while ROE in Syria, Egypt and Jordan is of
lesser magnitude.
The z-score in most MPs, an indicator of bank
stability (ratio of return on assets plus capital-
to-asset ratio to the standard deviation of the re-
turn on assets) appeared to be above the average
of high income countries suggesting the region
as a whole has a more stable banking system.
But, it was already below average in Egypt and
Tunisia and now, following the revolutions, the
Egyptian and Tunisian banking sectors outlook
looks worrying, with five Egyptian banks down-
graded and five Tunisian banks given a negative
outlook (FEMISE, 2011). Both Moodys and Stan-
dard & Poors attributed a downgrade of Egypts
foreign-currency deposit ceiling to B1 from Ba3,
the bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of the
National Bank of Egypt was downgraded to D-,
while it was downgraded to E+ for Banque Misr,
remained at D- for Banque du Caire but with a
negative outlook, while it was also downgra-
ded for the Commercial International Bank to D
and for the Bank of Alexandria to D- (GFSNews,
2011). Furthermore global local currency ratings
have seen a reduction as well.
Table 10. Banking Sector Indicators (2009)
Bank overhead
costs/ Total
Assets
Net interest
margin
Bank
concentraon Bank ROA Bank ROE
Bank Cost-
Income rao Bank Z-Score
Algeria 0,114 1 0,103 0,799 0,97 10,942
Egypt 0,039 0,03 0,53 0,061 0,059 0,425 2,409
Israel 0,021 0,024 1 0,014 0,224 0,614 37,991
Jordan 0,021 0,035 0,862 0,014 0,085 0,419 13,651
Lebanon 0,012 0,013 1 0,018 0,063 0,515 18,914
Morocco 0,013 0,034 1 0,01 0,221 0,36
Syria 0,031 0,038 0,33 0 0,03
Tunisia 0,018 0,04 0,591 0,336 0,831 0,331 6,745
Turkey 0,037 0,043 0,392 0,021 0,517 0,297 21,35
MPs 0,024 0,041 0,745 0,064 0,314 0,491 16
Lower Mid.
Income 0,043 0,06 0,687 -0,014 -0,167 0,614 10,126
High Income 0,027 0,025 0,786 0,095 0,208 0,639 11,749
Source : World Bank Financial Structure Database
-29-
Undeniably, the nancial and banking risks have in-
creased in the region. Perhaps more than ever, it is
me for MPs to acquire ecient credit markets
and promote policies that establish more discipline
and stability. This could be done through a step-
by-step approach by ensuring more stability for
the banking sector, building market infrastructure,
introducing a framework for compeon and inno-
vaon, and nally allow for the sharing of risk with
the private sector to correct for any possible market
failures (World Bank, 2009).
But one should note that stability of the banking
system does not necessarily mean one that oers
improved and open access to credit . Autho-
ries in MPs should also remove cumbersome
regulaons that increase the cost of bank lending
to rms all the while ensuring that sound risk
management pracces are implemented (World
Bank, 2009).
All in all increased access to nance can increase
growth in Mediterranean economies. Macroecono-
mic stability is essenal but policymakers can also
foster growth by improving the banking sector and
domesc stock and bond markets by improving the
condions to parcipate in nancial transacons,
strengthening legal frameworks for creditor and
shareholder rights, streamlining insolvency regimes,
developing both primary and secondary markets for
government securies, removing excessive controls
on credit and interest rates (IMF direct, 2011).
III. How democracy and credibility are expected
to generate considerable gains
Beyond the immediate challenges discussed in
the previous secon, the recent uprisings provi-
de a great opportunity for a genuine democracy
that could reverse the adverse short-run eects.
The rst secon has shown that democracy could
trigger many of the much needed reforms. What
policies should the Euromed region adopt to reap
maximum benets of the revoluon? In this con-
text, the experience of CEE could be very rele-
vant. This secon thus draws on their experience
to smulate the debate on the upcoming policy
choices to be made and also suggests some areas
of both short and long-term reforms required to
ensure a smooth transion.
III.1 What could MENA learn from CEE: Policy
choices to be made
The performance of CEE countries during the transi-
on has fallen short of expectaons mainly because
they were the rst to undergo polical and econo-
mic transformaons and had no benchmark either
in theory or pracce to assess their performance or
guide the process. As a result, the economic pro-
blems they faced were underesmated and policy-
makers had to take a number of policy measures in
a context of acute uncertainty. In fact, there have
been controversies about the speed of reforms,
privazaon methods, the role and organizaon of
the government. These controversies were not only
ideological but also reected to a large extent the
inial ignorance and unpreparedness of policyma-
kers and economists with respect to the large-scale
instuonal changes implied by the transion from
communism to capitalism (Roland, 2001).
Yet, while the countries had to rely on learning
by doing, their experience could serve as a lear-
ning experience for the Euro-med. This secon
does not give straight answers but aims at trigge-
ring the debate on some the polical choices that
need to be made to build democracy and ensure
credibility gains.
1. Stabilization and liberalization are important
for recovery
From the outset of transition, there was little
doubt on the reforms to be adopted. They fell
into two types according to Svejnar (2002). Type
I reforms aimed at shifting economies from cen-
tral planning to market economy. They typically
focused on: (i) macroeconomic stabilization
(including inflation stabilization, restrictive mo-
-30-
netary and fiscal policies, adoption of a single
exchange rate), (ii) structural reforms including
price liberalization and, (iii) dismantling the ins-
titutions of the communist system. Most coun-
tries also removed barriers to trade and crea-
tion of private firms and banks.
Macroeconomic stabilization and price liberali-
zation were associated with improved economic
performance but it was less effective in eco-
nomies where public finances remained weak
(De Melo et al., 1996 and 1997; and Havrylys-
hyn and van Rooden, 2000, Fischer and Sahay,
2000). Moreover, economic liberalization has
been an important element of stabilization,
even at the expense of some short term losses,
which were offset by long-term gains from eco-
nomic liberalization (De Melo et al., 1996 and
1997). In particular, liberalization has permitted
the allocation capital and labor from industry
towards services, many of which were previous-
ly repressed, and this contributed to a quicker
recovery. It is also important to mention that
CEE benefited from an external long-term an-
chor, being EU accession, which motivated rapid
progress of macroeconomic reforms through
the nominal convergence and structural criteria
which imposed long-term constraints on fiscal
laxity and macroeconomic policies (Deppler and
Schiff, 2002).
Type II reforms focused on instuonal reforms
including the development and enforcement of
laws, regulaons and instuons that would en-
sure a successful market-oriented economy like
establishing labor market regulaons and instu-
ons related to public employment and rerement
schemes, property rights and market compeon
as well as a healthy nancial system. They also in-
cluded privazaon of large and medium enterpri-
ses. It is worthwhile to note that these reforms are
no substute for good economic policies or type I
reforms. In fact, country experience showed that
instuonal reforms accelerated once liberaliza-
on eorts had been comprehensively implemen-
ted. In other words, the development of an ins-
tuonal framework (rule of law, property rights,
compeon and bankruptcy laws) has a posive
impact on growth aer macroeconomic stabiliza-
on and adopng reforms are achieved (Havrylys-
hyn and van Rooden, 2000).
Most CEE countries adopted type I reforms
but two factors determined whether a country
could adopt II reforms: their ability to collect
taxes with which to finance reforms and their
ability to minimize corruption and rent-seeking
behavior. In particular, type II reforms required
that government had some resources to set-up
market institutions, enforce laws and legal fra-
mework and to avoid being dominated by spe-
cial interests (EBRD, 1999).
On the one hand, the frontrunners of the revo-
lution seem to be less in need of type I reforms
than the CEE. This is not to say that stabilization
measures, particularly fiscal and inflation, is not
warranted. However, some countries like Egypt
and Tunisia have already started their transition
to the market economy before the revolution,
as early as the 1970s for Egypt. Moreover, eco-
nomic reforms and structural adjustment pro-
grams implemented with international financial
institutions in the 1990s involved some price
liberalization, trade openness, privatization
and promoting the private sector as well as a
restructuring and strengthening of domestic fi-
nancial systems. However, the transition to the
market economy is not fully complete since the
private sector is still weak and food and energy
subsidies still exist. On the other hand, the ab-
sence of market-supporting institutions (espe-
cially absence of competition and a sound legal
framework for private sector development and
law enforcement) shows that most countries of
the region seem in dire need of type II reforms.
In fact, weak market institutions have created
an arbitrary business environment where only
a privileged few were able to benefit from eco-
nomic gains.
-31-
2. Big bangs or gradualism in the adoption
of reforms?
While there was some consensus on the reforms
to be adopted, a major debate took place about
how to do it: big bang or gradualism. On
the one hand, big bangs meant undertaking as
many reforms as possible in the shortest time
possible. It was assumed that such an approach
would quickly establish functioning markets, in-
duce firms to restructure, facilitate private sec-
tor emergence and thus create a strong demand
for supporting institutions. It was also believed
that the quick adoption pace of painful reforms
would guarantee against policy reversal and sta-
gnation (World Bank, 1996).
The merits of this approach are that it ensures
policy complementarity (i.e. to be fully effective,
most measures must be implemented together),
it reduces policy uncertainty related to delays in
reform implementation which may lead to grea-
ter inefficiency and finally it allows to exploit the
political window of opportunity during which
extraordinary reforms could be adopted with
greater tolerance from the population to eco-
nomic hardships in the short-run and before
opposing groups are mobilized (Wyplosz, 2000
and EBRD, 1999). However, the main risk of this
shock therapy is the large adjustment costs in
terms of unemployment and fiscal deficit (as the
government compensated the losers of reforms)
but also exchange rate fluctuations and political
credibility (Wyplosz, 2000 and Dewatripont and
Roland, 1992).
On the other hand, gradualism implies slower par-
al reforms and thus lower adjustment costs. The
sequencing of reforms could be helpful if some re-
forms are pre-condions for others, like the need for
sound instuons and a well-funconing nancial
system for the emergence of a private sector. Mo-
reover, sequency could help build credibility when
reforms prove successful, thus building supporve
constuencies for future reforms (Roland, 2002).
However, the risks of this strategy is that paral re-
forms making markets and central planning coexist
for a while - would preserve rents and create power-
ful vested interests that could block further reforms
(EBRD, 1999). In pracce, those countries that enac-
ted reforms early and quickly recovered faster (De
Melo et al., 1996 and Wyplosz, 2000).
To conclude, most transition economies opted
for the big bang approach but that this meant
that it was feasible for them, given their starting
circumstances (Svejnar, 2002). The decision of-
ten reflected a trade-off between the financial
cost and political constraints of reforms versus
the immediate gains of reforms. In part, some
failed performances of partial reforms in the
past as well as an overall level of chaos com-
bining a disintegrating economy with a rapidly
weakening government reduced the scope
for gradualism (World Bank, 1996). However, a
very important lesson is that regardless of the
approach adopted, sustained and consistent re-
forms pay-off.
3. It is not just about policies, initial conditions
matter for recovery
The previous sections showed that the great
variation among the recovert of CEE econo-
mies was in part due to the speed and nature
of reforms. However, the more challenging the
country-specific initial conditions (such as large
macroeconomic distortions, inherited economic
structure and institutions as well as interdepen-
dence with the communist trade system), the
larger are the costs of change and this makes
reforms more difficult to be accepted (Fidrmuc,
2003; Fischer and Sahay, 2000; and De Melo et
al., 1997) find that severe initial macroeconomic
and structural distortions are associated with
slower reforms and economic performance.
Some initial conditions for the Euro-med are
better than for CEE. Their economies may still
suffer from macroeconomic distortions such as
-32-
widespread subsidies, structural fiscal deficits,
and weak market institutions, but as mentioned
earlier, their transition to the market economy
had started decades ago. This stands in sharp
contrast to the CEE economies which had to
make a complete shift in their economic system,
from communism and full-fledged central plan-
ning to free markets. Such factors are likely to
make the Euro-med transition smoother and less
costly. However, citizens in most CEE economies
were better-educated with almost universal
primary and lower secondary enrollment, high
levels of literacy and impressive levels of engi-
neering skills is likely to complicate the transi-
tion towards democracy (World Bank, 1996). In
general, it has been found that the tendency for
democracy increases with the level of schooling
(Barro, 1999). This is because poorly educated
citizens have received less civic culture and
have thus less aptitude to understand political
content and are thus less likely to participate in
political life and this could weaken support for
democracy (Glaeser et al., 2007).
4. What role for the state during the transion?
In many Euro-med countries, the old state has
failed in terms of providing them with a decent
standard of living. It is perceived to be corrupt,
distributing the economic gains to a privileged
few. In other words and as mentioned in the be-
ginning of the chapter, it had limited success in
employment and social policies.
In order to ensure a smooth transion towards de-
mocrac capitalism, the CEE experience showed
that there is a need to recreate trust in the state
(World Bank, 1996). In other words, there is a need
to balance between the need for a strong/credible
law-enforcing state and the need for constraints
on state power to prevent abuse of power and
ensure individual rights. In the immediate term,
the government has a responsibility in stopping
organized crime and this should help it build credi-
bility. This requires strict law enforcement and an
ecient and law-abiding security apparatus. In the
longer-term, constraining the power of the state
can occur with strengthening rule of law. The go-
vernment itself must be ruled by law and trusted
not to intervene arbitrarily in markets and deliver
on its obligaons (World Bank, 1996). An impor-
tant element is curbing corrupon. Judicial reform
is also crucial for dispute resoluon, law enforce-
ment and oversight of polical reform and would
also help the development of the private sector.
Second, as reforms that will complete the transion
towards market-economy take place, the govern-
ment has a responsibility in providing social protec-
on. Because the CEE transion created some lo-
sers and led to increasing poverty and inequality,
governments put in place unemployment compen-
saon and social security benet schemes, measu-
res that also increased support for reforms (Svejnar,
2002 and World Bank, 1996). During the transion,
social expenditures were maintained (educaon
and health) and others rose (energy and housing
allowances replaced subsidies) (Fischer and Sahay,
2000). As menoned earlier, current levels of spen-
ding on human capital are low in many Euro-med
countries and should be increase to improve out-
comes, especially in educaon. This will exert even
more pressure on weakened public nances.
5. To borrow or not to borrow?
An important debate taking place in some of the
frontrunners of the revolution is whether or not
to rely on external financing to finance reforms
during the transition. The same debate took
place in CEE during their transition, especially
that private capital inflows were very limited
in the absence of Western guarantees (Svejnar,
2002b). And while CEE economies never bene-
fited from a major assistance program like a
Marshall plan, they borrowed for balance of
payments and budgetary support and debt re-
lief and to support stabilization policies or and
to finance institutional reform (Svejnar, 2002b).
Developed economies have already shown in-
-33-
terest in providing financing for the Euro-med
region. During the G8 summit (in Deauville in
May 2011), they decided to give US$40 billion
in assistance over three years (20 billion in the
form of multilateral assistance and 20 billion as
bilateral assistance) to support democratization
efforts in Tunisia and Egypt. In addition, the IMF
stands ready to allocate about US$ 35 billion to
the region if requested (IMF, 2011c). Clearly, the
transition process is of great concern for develo-
ped nations since prolonged political instability
and unrest could result in a mass exodus of po-
pulations to EU countries. Also, for the United
States, it would be preferable to ensure a path
to democracy than see the rise of extremist po-
litical actors to power (IPS, 2011). However, ex-
ternal assistance is nationally resisted in some
countries (namely Egypt) because of loan condi-
tionality, and there is a preference for a home-
grown path for development.
To conclude, this secon has shown that in the
case of transion, it is crucial to adopt stabilizaon
policies early and quickly, that instuonal reforms
can be adopted once the economy stabilizes, that
the country needs to have the nancial resources
to nance reforms and that inial condions are
determinant of economic recovery. Also, the go-
vernment has a responsibility in providing social
protecon to migate economic hardship related
to reforms. External borrowing could be an op-
on but should have public support. Finally, inial
condions related to inial macroeconomic distor-
ons and imbalances are less challenging in the
Euro-med than for CEE. However, the absence of
a long-term anchor and poor human development
may slow down the transion pace.
III.2 The Euro-med economies: the way forward
The social and political turmoil in the Euro-med
region has interrupted the recovery from the
effects if the 2008 financial crisis. More particu-
larly, the heightened uncertainty is affecting the
regions short-term economic prospects. This
chapter has argued that there will be short-term
costs in the transition phase, especially with res-
pect to output growth, unemployment, public
and external finances. This means that the po-
licy reforms could be painful and their rewards
are likely to occur slowly. In the long-term, gains
from democracy could put the region on a path
of sustainable development.
However, how can this help draw some policy recom-
mendaons for the transion in the Euro-med?
In the short-term: rst, polical certainty and secu-
rity are crucial pre-requisites for economic impro-
vements. The announcement of a detailed polical
transion road map can help reduce uncertainty but
also build credibility of the polical authories. These
two factors are important for long-term consumpon
and investment decisions but also for the return of
foreign investors and tourists.
Second, it is crucial (particularly for the fron-
trunners) to quickly stabilize the economies. On
fiscal policy, as it may be difficult to reduce pu-
blic expenditure in the short-run, changing their
composition could be helpful in stimulating the
economy (Galal, 2011). In particular, increasing
spending on education could have high returns
since the initial level is low. On monetary po-
licy, it is critical to manage upcoming challenges
including curbing inflationary pressures, dealing
with downward pressures on the pound (which
requires an easing of monetary policy) and ac-
commodating the economic slowdown. Once
stabilization occurs, institutional reform can fol-
low at a later stage. This is likely to take years
to pay off.
Third, governments must quickly implement
measures that ensure employment creation and
improve rates of employability especially for
the youth. In addition to youth oriented training
programs and tax incentives to SMEs, estima-
tions (IMF, 2011a) suggest that an investment
in labor-intensive infrastructure of 1% of GDP
-34-
could create about 87 000 new jobs in Egypt
and 18 000 jobs in Tunisia in the short-run. Also,
incentives to private sector firms through a tem-
porary holiday on payroll taxes and temporary
on-the-job training subsidies may help increase
hiring. Other short-term measures could include
introducing a minimum wage to ensure that em-
ployment guarantees a decent standard of living
people out of poverty (Galal, 2011).
Fourth, major changes in social policies must ac-
company the move to the market to relieve po-
verty and to counter the adverse eect of reforms.
Governments must put in place compensaon me-
chanisms for the losers of reforms related to
trade openness and that may exacerbate social im-
balances (Reiers, 2011). However, such schemes
would provide temporary assistance to cushion the
present shock and should not be allowed to reduce
the incenve for the jobless to seek work.
Fih, borrowing from internaonal instuons could
nance some of the reforms during the transion as
long as the funds are used prudently and adequa-
tely (Galal, 2011). Dependence on foreign borrowing
should be considered temporary unl reforms create
an environment that aracts private capital. Most in-
ternaonal nancial instuons use condionality, a
concept that is resisted in some countries, where the-
re is support for home-grown reforms. Should there
be public support for external assistance; the laer
could be targeted in the following areas:
Provide social support for those who en-
dure economic hardships (pension reform and
unemployment benefits),
Reduce regulatory and other barriers to fa-
cilitate private sector entry,
Finance education/training programs for
the youth,
Guarantee more market-access for MPs,
Strengthening of human rights and gover-
nance institutions,
Aid for the development of the Mediterra-
nean civil society.
In the long-term, the region needs a more inclusive
model that balances growth, employment and dis-
tribuon. A key queson to be addressed is how to
ensure pro-job growth. This issue is inmately to
improving educaon and training in order to bet-
ter equip graduates with required skills. Also, this
should be done within a comprehensive employ-
ment strategy that also seeks to reduce (regularity
and access to nance) barriers to SMEs (parcularly
informal ones) improve the business environment
and address labor market rigidies that discou-
rage the private sector from hiring (Galal, 20011
and IMF, 2011c). A socially inclusive agenda must
be implemented to ensure that growth is broadly
shared and to ensure equality of opportunity to ci-
zens. This can be achieved through reviewing the
composion of public expenditure to make it more
socially equitable and increase spending on human
capital. Finally, iniang instuonal reform and
strengthening supporng market instuons (com-
peon policy, an-trust laws...) are crucial and will
also help foster private sector development. Also,
an-corrupon measures should be implemented
in a wider context of civil service reform.
The challenge of the success of these painful re-
forms is that they must be underpinned by broad
polical support and social consensus. In the
end, it is important to say that region has enor-
mous potenal, the most important of which is
its dynamic and young populaon, who if they
become healthy and educated, will also become
more producve and will provide the region with
an opportunity for higher long-term growth and
development.
-35- -35-
CHAPTER 2. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE AUTHORI-
TARIAN BARGAIN
Introducon
The uprising that erupted in Tunisia and swept
across the region took most governments, ex-
perts and internaonal organizaons by surprise.
The former rulers of Tunisia and Egypt have been
deposed. Other authoritarian regimes in the re-
gion, such as in Libya and Syria are embaled.
Polical concessions and hand outs in dierent
forms are made in Algeria, Morocco and Jordan to
face mass protests and dissasfacon and avoid
the revoluonary winds.
The regimes survived over decades in which de-
mocrac waves rolled across dierent regions from
Lan America to Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan
Africa. For a long me, the authoritarian bargain
model explained the dynamics in the region and
its resilience to change [1]. Authoritarian regimes,
according to the model, share state resources
between repressing opponents and rewarding sup-
porters. They implement selected economic and
social policies through which they channel benets
to their constuencies. Some policies such as land
reform, naonalizaon of private assets or priva-
zaon of state owned assets alter social balance
of power by changing property rights structure.
Other policies take the form of recurrent ows of
benets granted to the whole populaon (univer-
sal consumpon subsidies and free public health
and educaon) or to specic segments (welfare
programs, trade protecon, guaranteed lifeme
jobs to civil servants, cheap credits to industries
and subsidies for farmers).
For a long me, such policies oered a strong social
base to support the authoritarian regimes in the Arab
Mediterranean region. Even with structural adjust-
ment programs and a number of market reforms, the
regimes managed the contradicon between mar-
ket transformaon and persistent authoritarianism.
Whenever budget constraints come into sight, the
regimes make careful trade-os to preserve their re-
silience. Austerity measures were targeted to specic
segments, generally the weakest economically and
the less vocal. In the meanme, the regimes co-opted
or harshly repressed dissidents and potenal rivals.
Sporadically, the regimes granted some degree of
freedom and polical rights as security valve to avert
radical uprising and secure their survival.
Unl recently, the Arab Mediterranean regimes
seemed to maintain a signicant level of poli-
cal stability and to secure sucient support for
their regimes. The recent uprisings showed that
their faades stability was a mere chimera and
called into queson the foundaons of the pre-
vailing authoritarian bargain. Two non-exclusive
arguments seem plausible to explain the histori-
cal shi.
First, the authoritarian regimes violated the terms
of the old bargain and did not oer any credible
and viable alternave. The transion from state-
led to market oriented economy implemented
in a context of hardship led the authoritarian ru-
lers to slash or stop to provide economic benets
to large segments among their tradional suppor-
ters. The regimes shied gradually their core social
base from the masses of workers, peasants and ci-
vil servants to a minority of inuenal urban rent-
seeking bourgeoisie and rural landed elite and built
new networks of patronage through privazaon
and other private sector related policies. Rapid de-
mographic growth and massive ows of educated
jobless imposed severe dilemmas for the regimes.
Although, they managed to achieve some econo-
mic growth, inequality and exclusion have been on
the rise. The inability of the authoritarian regimes
to buy loyalty and obedience of large segments of
their populaons or to oer any viable alternave;
eroded their legimacy and raison dtre for the
majority, which in the end chose to rebel against
the status-quo.
In all countries in region, the rst reacon aer the
uprising began was to increase wages in the public
-36- -36-
sector and expand subsidies and other social trans-
fers to mend the old bargain and put an end to the
radical polical demands. An oil-producer country
such as Algeria has been able, so far, to inject large
amount of public money in the form of transfers
and wage increases to maintain the regime alive.
Morocco, with much limited nancial resources,
had instead made polical concessions by refor-
ming its constuon. In Egypt and Tunisia, the ru-
lers aempted a combinaon of repression, eco-
nomic benets and polical concessions. However,
both countries failed to weather the storm and
their authoritarian regimes collapsed.
Second, the authoritarian model is no longer valid
because the majority of people no longer accept
the terms of the bargain. Over the last decades
during which the authoritarian regimes have been
ruling, fundamental changes occurred in the Arab
Mediterranean sociees. Their populaons beca-
me larger, younger, more educated and urbanized.
Unlike their parents, the new generaons, which
account for almost two thirds of the total popula-
on; challenge the legimacy of their rulers and
point more comfortably to their failures [2]. They
also value freedom, dignity and social jusce
more than any economic benets they can get
from an authoritarian regime [3]. Polical rights
and economic gains can no longer be substutes
as the old authoritarian bargain spulated.
The chapter argues that in addition to the autho-
ritarian bargains erosion, three factors were at
the heart of the massive uprising in the region.
First, the magnitude of inequality went up dra-
matically over the last years as did economic ex-
clusion and social frustration. Second, endemic
corruption proliferated beyond redemption in
the regimes inner circles. Third, the social me-
dia by enabling people to share awareness, over-
coming official medias censorship and easing
coordination among a very large number of in-
dividuals; exposed the authoritarian regimes to
unprecedented challenges.
I. For a long me, the authoritarian bargain reigned
The Economist Intelligence Units Index of De-
mocracy classies countries into four types of
regimes: full democracies; awed democracies;
hybrid regimes; and authoritarian regimes. This
classicaon is based on ve criteria: electoral
process and pluralism; civil liberes; the funco-
ning of government; polical parcipaon; and
polical culture. Except Lebanon and Palesne
Territories considered as hybrid regime, the rest
of the Arab Mediterranean regimes are rated as
autocracies.
The authoritarian regimes lack popular legimacy
[4] and are not subjected to any checks and ba-
lances. Those regimes combine coercive and in-
cenve-based policies and share state resources
between repressing opponents and rewarding sup-
porters. To survive in power, they establish their
authority on the basis of security apparatuses and
a system of compeon for public patronage they
can arbitrate.
Provisions of Economic Benets
Despite some dierences among the countries, ove-
rall Arab Mediterranean regimes behaved during the
past four to ve decades in line with the authoritarian
bargain model.
Most Arab Mediterranean countries set up land re-
form policy, which broke up the vast holdings of the
feudal landlords and distributed some of the expro-
priated land to landless and small farmers. The imple-
mentaon of land reforms allowed the rulers to wea-
ken the landed elites and form a strong social basis for
their regimes. It was a pivotal policy of the regimes in
their aempt to consolidate their power and win the
allegiance of poor rural communies. The literature
indicates that heavy land redistribuon tends to occur
more oen in autocrac regimes and those that en-
gage in more redistribuon early in their tenures were
likely to remain longer in power [5].
-37-
The polics of land reform and agricultural policy
The regimes promoted landless and small farmers
through land expropriaon and redistribuon. Inse-
cure property rights and state supervision of agricul-
tural acvity led to lasng contract of patronage and
clientelism between the authoritarian rulers and the
rural smallholders.
First, property rights granted by the state to benecia-
ries were most oen incomplete. The evidence shows
that by granng incomplete property rights, the poli-
cal regime can secure future control over land re-
cipients and their descendants [14]. Second, farmers
through their membership in state-run cooperaves
Box 1. The polics of land reform and agriculture policy
The case of Egypt and Syria
Nassers regime in Egypt and Baath regime in Syria, for ins-
tance, enjoyed strong legimacy due to land reforms. The
Nasser regime issued the rst land reform law in September
1952, which placed a 200 feddans ceiling on land ownership
[6]. Large landowners share decreased from around 27
percent of total land ownership to only 6.5 percent and the
share of the 95 percent smallest owners rose from 35 per-
cent to 57 percent [7]. The government reduced the ceiling
to 100 feddans in 1961; then to 50 feddans per person and
200 feddans per family in 1969.
In Syria, aer the takeover by Baath Party, the government
enforced radical provisions against landowners in the decree
law of March 1963. It has restricted individual ownership to
between 15 and 45 hectares of irrigated land and 80 to 300
hectares of rainfed land depending on the area. From early
sixes to mid sevenes, the government in Syria distributed
40.5 percent of total cropland and allowed 25 percent of
farm families to acquire land. Land reform program in Syria
led to a sharp decline in land concentraon due to ownership
ceiling spulated by law (Keilany 1980). The government
was able to broaden its social base in the countryside and
secure support by the segment of the peasants at the ex-
pense of landlords. Unl the ninees, land reform in Syria
improved living condions of the poor peasantry; reduced
income inequality in favor of the rural populaon and made
its parcipaon as one of the key pillars of the social foun-
daon of the Syrian polical system. Growth in agricultural
output reached an annual average of 4.4 per cent during
the sixes and increased to 8.6 percent in the sevenes [8].
Public investment in rural infrastructure and social develop-
ment intensied; irrigated areas more than doubled, ferli-
zer consumpon increased four mes and food producon
per head was almost maintained above the average level
that prevailed in the early sixes despite instable rainfall and
a steady populaon growth of 3.5 per cent per year.
The policy change in Syrian agriculture since the ninees
have taken opposite direcon and generated perverse ef-
fects on the landless and small-sized land owners. The go-
vernment ended its monopoly in import and distribuon of
inputs and opened agricultural land to foreign ownership.
TThe downsizing of the public sector and the sale of state
farms led to the emergence of large capital intensive private
agricultural enterprises of 2,000 hectares on average and
drove small farmers out of business and forced them to com-
pete for paid work. The decision to freeze the distribuon of
expropriated land, which was retained by the government
and partly used as state farms or leased out to tenants; in-
creased the landless populaon both in absolute and rela-
ve terms. The 2003/04 Household Income and Expenditure
Survey found rising rural poverty and deepening inequality
within agriculture and between agriculture and the rest
of the economy [9]. Interesngly, the survey found the
poverty outlook parcularly alarming in the administra-
ve districts (muhafazat) with over 60 percent of rural
populaon [10] such as Al-Hassaka, Al-Raqqa, Daraa,
Deir ez-Zour, Hamah, Idlib and Tartous [11]. Interesn-
gly, those same regions have been leading the uprising
in Syria over the last four months.
Similar adjustment policies were implemented in the ear-
ly ninees in Egypt: phasing out of area quotas and de-
livery of crops; ending state interference in crop pricing;
phasing out subsidies to ferlizers, pescides, seeds and
farming machines as well as interest rates, privazaon
of state land and companies and liberalizaon of the cul-
vated land market. These policies reduced budget and
balance of payment decits but their eect on agricultu-
ral sector were negave. They hit parcularly poor hol-
ders (of less than two feddans) because their real reve-
nues decreased [12]. The proporon of poor holders may
have approached 60 percent of the total holders [13].
-38-
had to rely on state policy for credit, input subsidies,
warehousing and transport, markeng and output
administered prices. By doing so, the state created
for itself a burden it can barely assume. When under
scal constraints and changing policy trade-os the
state cut the delivery of these complementary servi-
ces, or shied its policy towards large farmers; most
small farmers encountered dicules and oen fell
into poverty and marginalizaon.
To deliver benets and secure loyalty to the authori-
tarian rulers of the educated elite and urban dwellers,
the regimes created a large bureaucracy. Naonaliza-
on of economic assets, use of central planning and
adopon of explicit or implicit job guarantees led to
substanal expansion of public sector employment. In
most countries, the size of the public sector increased
to exceponally high level, compared to internaonal
averages, during the sevenes and the eighes. Pu-
blic sector guaranteed lifeme employment with ge-
nerous wages and other non wage benets.
Some countries in the region guaranteed civil service
employment for graduates of secondary and higher
educaon; others operated as employers of last re-
sort [15]. Till the mid 1980s, employment in the public
sector represented, on average, more than one third
of total employment in the Arab Mediterranean coun-
tries (20 percent in the government sector and 13.7
percent in state-owned enterprises). Public jobs were
one of the most important tools for the regime to ex-
tent favors and exert its polical and social control.
The provision of free educaon and health ser-
vices and heavily subsidized basic goods was
another key component of the authoritarian
economic and social bargain in the region. These
benets improved living standards of the poor
and middle groups, strengthened polical stabi-
lity reduced the pressure for polical reforms.
According to IMF (1999), subsidies cover about
40 percent of total domesc producon costs for
wheat products in Tunisia and approximately two
thirds in Egypt. About half the sugar consumpon
in Egypt and Jordan and bread our consumpon
in Morocco is subsidized, while almost all rice
and powdered milk consumpon in Jordan was
subsidized in the early 1990s.
Use of fear and repression
The provision of subsidies, social benets and public
sector employment can only partly explain the lon-
Box 2. Food Subsidies in Tunisia
The subsidy program absorbed signicant scal resources
in the last eighes, reaching 7.2 percent of the total govern-
ment budget and nearly 3 percent of GDP in 1989. This can
be explained in part by the universal coverage of subsidies,
as well as the high rate of unit subsidy. For example, the
bread subsidy was equivalent to 40 percent of the total un-
subsidized price of bread, and for locally-produced sugar,
the subsidy share in total value amounted to 70 percent.
Self-targeng measures were introduced in an eort to
channel benets to low income groups, gradually leading
to lower program costs, which have declined since 1990.
Whereas consumers obtain signicant benets from food
subsidies, the instuonal organizaon and de facto mo-
nopoly control of producon and distribuon by the various
sector markeng boards has also contributed to the high
costs of the subsidy program (Table 2).
Table 1. Size of the Public sector employment in Arab Mediterranean
Countries
Country Year Government
State owned
enterprises
Total public
sector
Algeria 1984 22.7 35.9 58.6
Egypt 1986 21.3 10.8 32.1
Jordan 1987 40.9 3.8 44.7
Syria 1980 22.9 10.0 32.9
Tunisia 1982 12.8 7.2 20.0
Morocco 1988 9.8 2.2 12.0
Average
(weighted)
-- 20.0 13.7 33.7
Source: Mona Said (1996), ERF paper
Table 2. Fiscal Cost of Explicit Consumer Food Subsidies in Tunisia, 1988-95
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
% GDP 2.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
% total
Government
expenditure
6.0 7.2 6.2 5.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5
IMF (1999), Consumer Food Subsidy Programs in the MENA region
-39-
gevity and resilience of the authoritarian regimes in
the region. The authoritarian bargain faced opposi-
on, from its early days, and was challenged either
by those who never accepted the terms of the con-
tract and refused to trade freedom for bread or by
the crowds that occasionally took the streets to ex-
press their anger and dissasfacon. In combinaon
with economic benets, the authoritarian rulers de-
veloped three repressive strategies to deter potenal
dissidents, contain their inuence and punish them;
using exceponal procedures and legal provisions
spulated in emergency and an-terrorism laws and
regulaons.
First, authoritarian rulers developed emoonally
powerful rhetoric to control society and jusfy
repression. The Arab naonalist rhetoric, predo-
minant in the sixes and sevenes, enjoyed con-
siderable popular appeal and led to the imposion
of a single party system in most countries [16]. It
helped the authoritarian regimes in the region to
mobilize the masses, buress their legimacy and
consolidate their power. The late sixes represen-
ted a dramac turn, however. Aer the naksa [17],
the rulers shied to pragmasm and narrow nao-
nal interests. The polical discourse emphasized
the priority of naonal security, unity and soverei-
gnty against foreign conspiracy over any other poli-
cal, economic or social issues. This argument was
systemacally used to dismiss any real or potenal
threat for the regimes stability and as pretext for
state repression.
Second, the authoritarian rulers implemented le-
gal means of repression through Emergency Laws
that restrict individual freedom and allow use of
unchecked power by the state. Such laws prevailed
in Algeria, Egypt and Syria and only lied aer the
beginning of the Arab revolts. Despite some mi-
nor dierences, emergency laws restrict peoples
freedom of assembly, movement and residence.
The law allows the arrest of suspects who threaten
public security and detain them, and permits ins-
pecons of persons and places without restricon
by the Criminal Procedure Code.
In Egypt, more than 1,000 civilian defendants
were tried in military courts between 1992 and
2000 under the emergency law. This resulted in 92
death sentences and 644 life imprisonment [18].
Human rights organizaons esmated the number
of Islamists and other polical prisoners who were
detained under emergency law in Egypt ranged
between 13,000 and 20,000 by end of 2001 [19]. In
Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, an-terrorism laws
empowered the security forces through excepo-
nal provisions and resulted in recurrent human
right violaons and serious restricons on fun-
damental freedoms [20] [21]. In Tunisia, as many
as 2,000 persons were detained, charged, and/or
convicted on terrorism-related charges between
2004 and 2009 [22].
Third, in many cases the authoritarian regimes in the
region resorted to massive and disproporonate use
of force and violence against bread riots and peace-
ful protesters, mass arbitrary arrests, cruel torture
and widespread inmidaon [23].
II. Unsustainable Bargain
Under the authoritarian bargain, countries in the re-
gion manage in the sixes and part of the sevenes
to achieve relavely high economic growth and im-
prove their human capital indicators due to populist
redistribuve policies. The countries enjoyed large
nancial ows that allowed them to nance such
policies. Egypt, Syria and Tunisia were small produ-
cers by internaonal standards but had signicant
oil resources. Oil accounted for a large share of
their exports and government revenues. Morocco
and Jordan were major producers of phosphates,
the price of which increased ve-fold aer 1973.
During the 1980s much of this paern was rever-
sed. The decline in government revenues due to
the collapse of oil and phosphate proceeds; the
decline in migrant remiances and aid from the
Gulf States imposed severe restricons on their
budgets. The prevailing social bargain became un-
sustainable.
-40-
The economic reforms implemented hurt large
segments of the populaon in the Arab Mediter-
ranean countries, without oering real polical
opening through which grievances might be ex-
pressed [24]. Under adjustment programs of the
eighes and ninees, the terms of the bargain
were dramacally aected. The liberal policies
slashed or phased out most of the benets, re-
versed land reforms by promong land concen-
traon, and pushed a large number of small and
medium-sized farmers into poverty.
But by the late eighes, the public sector was
overstaed and inecient, and its wage bills re-
presented a huge burden for the state budget. It
accounted for 55 percent of the government cur-
rent revenues in Morocco, 52 percent in Algeria,
42.5 percent in Tunisia. In addion to job stability
and other non-wage benets, public sector jobs
oered relavely higher wages compared to those
prevailing in the private sector [25].
The state reacted by reducing the number of new
posions oered in the public sector. The contribu-
on of the public sector to total job creaon drama-
cally declined in the late eighes and early ninees
in Algeria, Morocco, Egypt and Jordan. The impact
was felt mostly by educated jobseekers (parcularly
female educated) who usually perceived civil ser-
vice as a natural and guaranteed opon aer they
complete their degrees. This impact translated into
higher unemployment rates and longer queuing/
waing me for a job. Free educaon and increased
access to secondary and terary educaon made
things worse. Unemployment rates among educated
youth surged to more than 20 percent up from negli-
gible levels. As a result, authoritarian regimes in the
region lost one key avenue through which they used
to acquire their legimacy and exert their control.
In order to limit the burden of the wage bill on state
budget, public sector wages were kept frozen or oc-
casionally raised but not enough to oset for ero-
ding eect of price liberalizaon and inaon. The
purchasing power of civil service wages declined
sharply in countries such as in Tunisia and Egypt. In
the laer, the average wage in the government sec-
tor lost 60 percent of its value during the ninees.
The process of wage erosion persisted in the years
2000 at a faster rate in the public administraon
compared to other economic sectors. Reducons in
food and other subsidies resulted in riots, but they
were reversed at mes to preserve social peace and
polical stability.
Increasingly however, the authoritarian regimes
started to lose their legimacy within their tradi-
onal supporters, mainly landless and small-sized
farmers, public sector employees and poor and
middle-class households.
Over the past decade, Arab Mediterranean countries
have seen an increase in strikes, demonstraons, and
other forms of social protests as well, movated by
economic and social grievances [26]. The anger and
frustraon swept across the poor in the countryside,
educated jobless, marginalized street vendors and im-
poverished civil servants. The stability of the regimes
was not, however, called into queson. The autho-
ritarian rulers were able to come up with a number
of strategies to preserve their power and also renew
some part of their eroded legimacy.
III. Alternave survival strategies
To preserve the regimes and strengthen their re-
silience, three strategies were developed. First,
the regimes shifted gradually their social base to
a minority of influential business elite and built
new networks of patronage through privatization
Figure 1. Trends in government average real wages
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Algeria Morocco Tunisia Egypt
Source: Calculaons by L.Achy
-41-
and other private sector related incentives. Se-
cond, the regimes granted some limited degree
of freedom and political rights as security valve
to avert radical uprising. Third, the regimes sei-
zed the opportunity of escalating international
terrorism in the early 2000s to secure support
from the West and establish themselves as vital
partners in the international war against terror.
At the same time, they consolidated their police
and security forces to crackdown on protesters
and dissidents when necessary.
Networks of patronage with the business elite
The authoritarian regimes used the opportunity of
privazaon policy to create a form of crony capita-
lism in which businessmen are heavily dependent on
the state for access to power and favors. By doing so
the regimes goal was twofold. First, create a new so-
cial coalion for the regime as a counterweight to the
tradional supporters hit by market reforms, cuts in
subsidies and other social benets. Second, preserve
the control of the economy and avoid any potenal
challenge that may emerge from an independent bu-
siness community. As a result, the regimes were able
to create a loyal elite of entrepreneurs made of priva-
te sector capitalists, landed elites, the military ocer
corps and top state ocials [27]. All of them secured
windfall prots by purchasing the privazed assets
sold at nominal prices. Many cases of undervaluaon
or underpricing of public enterprises privazed were
reported. Privazaon turned out to be an extension
to the power of the state and its entrenchment in a
new socioeconomic model.
The regimes also used costly incenve schemes,
tolerance to tax fraud, and easy access to nance
and public procurement as tools to control and dis-
cipline the private sector. In Tunisia, for instance,
the government gave up every year between 50
and 60 percent of due corporate taxes in the form
of tax incenves during 2000-2007 [28]. The slug-
gish private sector investment and the failure to
reduce unemployment call the relevance of these
incenves into queson.
Timid steps toward polical reform
The authoritarian rule in the region was both
persistent and dynamic [29]. In addition to pro-
vision of economic gains and use of different re-
pressive strategies, the resilience of the autho-
ritarian regime in the region was also due to its
ability to introduce marginal political reforms to
manage internal or external pressures for demo-
cracy. Despite their imperfections, the shift to
multiparty system and the regular organization
of elections conferred the authoritarian regimes
in the region some faade legitimacy.
Most countries in the region started to hold regular le-
gislave elecons (since 1976 in Egypt and since 1989
in Tunisia and since 1991 in Algeria) and allowed for
some degree of pluralism. Syria launched elecons to
its Peoples assembly in 1990 and the Baath partys
congress endorsed the idea of independent polical
pares in 2005. Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria introduced
nominal compeve presidenal elecons in the
mid-1990s. However, incumbent regimes controlled
electoral processes from the voters lists, to pares
and candidates enabled to parcipate, modes of elec-
ons and use of media in electoral campaigning. By
doing so, the regimes succeeded to avert undesirable
electoral outcomes and subverted polical openness
[30]. Instead of weakening the incumbent regimes,
these mid reforms produced new authoritarian sys-
tems that integrated liberal economic policies, new
ruling alliances, some supercial pluralism and elec-
toral legimizaon taccs [31]. Unlike a genuine pro-
cess of democrazaon, the top-down and shallow
polical reforms of the last two decades in the region
did not lead to the redistribuon of power and slip-
ped into reverse in some cases.
Secure western support through war on terror
The September 11 terrorist aacks prompted the de-
bate on polical reforms and democracy in the Arab
region in the US foreign policy. The Bush administra-
on accused authoritarianism as being responsible
for the expansion of terrorism and made the commit-
-42-
ment to promote democracy in the region. Following
various electoral experiences in the region between
2001 and 2004, the US realized that democrazaon
will likely lead to Islamist dominaon of Arab polics.
The risk is that Islamist governments would be much
less willing to cooperate with the United States than
are the current authoritarian rulers [32].
The authoritarian regimes seized this unexpected
opportunity to renew their discourse and establish
themselves as vital partners in the internaonal war
against terror. The fear of Islamists argument was
used to deter all forms of domesc opposion and
jusfy excessive repression. As a result, the West
tolerated human right violaons and manipulaon
of elecons and preferred to support authoritaria-
nism in the region and preserve its interests instead
of promong a risky democrazaon process.
IV. Factors that accelerated the breakdown
During the past six years, economies of the region
expanded, at relavely higher economic growth
rates compared to the ninees; and most of them
seemed to have had curbed the impact of the in-
ternaonal economic crisis. Three factors, at the
heart of the massive uprising in both countries,
have however aected the resilience of the autho-
ritarian bargain model in the region and led, so far,
to its collapse in Tunisia and Egypt. First, the fruits
of economic growth were very unequally shared
among the dierent social groups. The magnitude
of inequality went up as did economic exclusion
and social frustraon. Second, endemic corrupon
proliferated beyond redempon in the regimes
inner circles. The situaon reached boiling point
in Tunisia with the release of wiki leaks that gave
robust momentum to peoples frustraon. Third,
the social media by enabling people to share awa-
reness, overcoming ocial medias censorship and
easing coordinaon among a very large number of
individuals; exposed the authoritarian regimes to
unprecedented challenges. Bouazizis self-immola-
on provided fuel for social explosion that spread
across the whole region.
Rising inequality and growing exclusion
Household surveys, on the basis of which ine-
quality indicators are computed, focus exclusi-
vely on income or consumption inequality. Bibi
and Nabli (2010) emphasized that in comparison
with the rest of the world, income inequality in
the Arab region has remained moderately high
with GINI coefficients lower than Latin America
and Sub-Saharan Africa, comparable to those of
East Asia but higher than those of Europe, Cen-
tral and South Asia. Bibi and Nabli argued that
there is an overall decline in income inequality in
the Arab world. This finding, however, dissimula-
tes diverging trends among countries as shown
in the table.
For methodological reasons, household surveys
underesmate the true level of inequality because
of extremely limited informaon on the richest
individuals and the degree of underesmaon
can dier from one country to the other rende-
ring internaonal comparisons of meaningless.
For instance, inequality in earnings appears to be
relavely higher in Arab Countries compared to
other regions, and the distribuon of other non-
income indicators such as educaon, health, and
land ownership reveal that the Arab countries are
among the most unequal worldwide [33].
Table 3. Trends in inequality in Acs
High inequality Medium inequality
Low
inequality
Only one
observaon
Comoros
Oman and United
Arab Emirates
Lebanon
No trend
Jordan if 1992 Gini
is considered
Syria
Stable
Mauritania from
1995, Tunisia
from 1990
Jordan if 1992 Gini
value is ignored
Kuwait and
Egypt
Morocco
Increasings
Morocco and
Tunisia
Algeria
Syria and
Yemen from
1998
Decreasing
Tunisia between
1980s and 1990s
Algeria
Source: Sami Bibi and Mustapha Nabli (2010)
-43-
Moreover, in countries plagued by corrupon and
fraud, data on declared incomes lack relevance and
likely to poorly capture the magnitude of inequality.
Wealth inequality might be more relevant in such
circumstances, but unusually not available. Beyond
stascs, public percepon of inequality and the
feelings of injusce it generates can be much more
meaningful. Any visitor to Egypt, for instance, can wi-
tness the disconcerng inequality between deprived
villages in Giza lacking running water and electricity
and the next door Pyramid area, the locaon of ma-
jor investments in luxurious hotels, new auent and
secluded residenal compounds and world-class mu-
seum [34]. Liberal economic policies and the shi in
the social base of the authoritarian regimes translated
into rising inequality, and extreme forms of social and
regional exclusions. The poor and middle class who
invested in the educaon of their children reaped
frustraon and unmet dreams and expectaons. The
prevalence of neposm makes the issue even worse.
Unlike youth from richer backgrounds who rely on
dense networks, those from unprivileged families
usually end up unemployed or stuck in bad jobs.
Over the last few years, sharp swings in interna-
onal prices led to a double digit inaon on basic
products in most countries in the region. As the rich
spend only a small share of their income on food,
these upsurges in hit the poor harder and their sen-
se of inequality and injusce has grown further. A
recent IMF study reveals that food prices increases
the incidence of an-government demonstraons,
riots, and civil conict [35].
Endemic corrupon in the regimes inner circles
The authoritarian regimes in the region have for a
long time attributed poverty and unemployment
Box 3. Growing regional inequalies in Tunisia
Available esmates on income inequality in Tunisia conrm
that the gap between the rich and the poor is worsening
during the past ve years. The Gini index declined between
1995 and 2005 but increased since then. Three factors in
parcular have contributed to more inequality: a higher
level of unemployment among youth from poor and mid-
dle classes, the absence of redistribuve tax policies, and
regressive eects of public social spending (Figure 2).
Ocial stascs show that poverty rates have declined
and the overall economic situaon has improved over the
last decade. Large parts of the country were neglected,
however, and as a result, regional inequality exacerbated.
The gap in poverty rates between the capital city and the
rest of the country shows that regional variaon in terms
of living standards increased between 2000 and 2004 [36].
The gap with respect to Tunis increased in all regions. The
north-west and centre-east, which beneted from public in-
vestments as well as private sector projects in tourism and
oshore manufacturing, are much closer to the capital city.
The south and center west, on the other hand are lagging
behind. Other indicators corroborate the persistence of lar-
ge disparies between costal and interior regions in terms
of access to basic infrastructure, educaon and health ser-
vices, and job opportunies. The poorest regions lack ade-
quate economic and social infrastructure and suer from
higher unemployment rates. The three most privileged re-
gions (Greater Tunis, Center and North East) are home to
60 percent of the populaon and almost 90 percent of for-
mal enterprises [37]. On the other hand, the three deprived
western regions (North West, Center West and South West)
accommodate 30 percent of the Tunisian populaon and
less than 8 percent of enterprises (Figure 3).
Figure. 2. Growing regional ineqalies in Tunisia (Based
on Gini index)
35
37
39
41
43
1995 2000 2005 2009
Source: Calculaons by L.Achy
Figure. 3. Househols access to drinkable water (2010)
60
70
80
90
100
Greater Tunis Center East South East North East Center West North West
Source: Calculaons by L.Achy
-44-
in their countries to the lack of sufficient domes-
tic financial resources and focused their policies
on promoting foreign investments, remittances
and occasionally international aid. However, the
escalation of high profile corruption, abuse of
position and embezzlement of public money by
friends, allies and clients of the regimes made
people distrustful and angry. They now reco-
gnize that corruption and poor governance has
been the significant cause of the failure.
Their frustraon with scandalous corrupon cases
was one key grievance expressed in their protests.
Corrupon infringes the fundamental human rights
to fair treatment, unbiased decision-making, and se-
cure civil and polical status.
In Tunisia, for instance, members of Ben Alis family
were taking advantage of their posions in power
to build up for themselves a posion from which
they could accumulate wealth, by monopolizing the
funcon of intermediary nancers in privazaons,
in import-export operaons, in access to public mar-
kets, and in access to informaon. They also procee-
ded by inmidaon, seizing on a share of capital from
ourishing businesses, and increasing the number of
matrimonial strategies in order to widen their eld of
intervenon [38]. According to Global Financial Inte-
grity (GFI), Egypt is losing more than US$6 billion per
year during the period 2000 to 2008 in illicit nancial
acvies and ocial government corrupon [39],
which is the equivalent of 5 percent of GDP over the
same period. Needless explain why Egypans were
upset about Mubaraks regime.
Role of social media
The use of mobile phones, access to satellite TV
channels, Internet and other social media tech-
nologies increased tremendously in the region
during the past decade. Their affordability and
easy access, including among people living in re-
mote areas with poor infrastructure, made them
popular. These modern communication tech-
nologies allowed ordinary people to overcome
censorship imposed in state-controlled media.
People in the region become aware of how ba-
dly things have gone wrong, and conscious of
the differences between their world and the
rest in terms of standard of living, achievement,
and, more generally, human and cultural deve-
lopment [40].
The social media also lied constraints imposed on
the public sphere through emergency laws and res-
tricons on freedom of assembly and public demons-
traons. Digital acvism, through dedicated blogs,
and Facebook pages replaced tradional forms of
acvism. In Egypt, for instance, less than 5 percent of
young people belong to polical pares [41].
The social media enabled people to built trust and
share awareness on the major economic and social
issues. Informaon and Communicaon Technologies
facilitate mobilizaon on the ground by connecng
Box 4. Social media in Egypt
Kefaya movement aracted large numbers of apolical
youth. In 2004 and 2005, it organized a series of high-prole
protests calling for the end of Mubaraks presidency and the
countrys emergency law. In 2008, youth acvists from Ke-
faya formed the April 6 Movement in solidarity with texle
workers who were planning a strike for that date. The move-
ment aracted 70,000 members on Facebook, making it the
largest youth movement in Egypt at the me.
Members of both the April 6 Movement and Kefaya were
behind the creaon of the most important Facebook group
in June 2010, called We are all Khaled Said in memory of
a young man who was beaten to death by police ocers in
Alexandria. The Arabic version of this Facebook page was
managed by an anonymous acvist who was later revea-
led as Google execuve (Wael Ghonim). The page aracted
more than one million supporters and became the focal
point for a number of large protests against state abuses in
the summer of 2010. The execuve used the page to call for
Egypans to take to the streets on 25 January, commemora-
ted as Naonal Police Day.
Source: The Arab Revolts (2011)
-45-
like-minded cizens, oering non-ocial informaon
to anybody interested and inving protesters to ga-
ther in public places, marches or other forms of poli-
cal acvism [42].
Beyond mobilizaon, the social media enabled online
acvists to inform the internaonal public opinion
through blogs, Facebook updates, cell phone commu-
nicaon, and, most vividly, YouTube videos [43]. The
material uploaded by ordinary individuals become a
source of informaon for internaonal press agency
and satellite TV channels across the world. Using digi-
tal acvists uploaded material, Al Jazeera, for instate,
played a boosng role in most of the Arab protests.
The live stream allowed a global audience to remain
informed on whats happening on the streets from
the comfort of their own homes and overcome state-
sponsored medias propaganda.
Although the authoritarian regimes prosecuted digi-
tal acvists, shut their blogs and put some of them in
jail; they failed to grasp the strong subversive role of
internet and social media. The laer challenged key
vehicles and instruments that the regimes had tradi-
onally used to establish their authority. In both Tu-
nisia and Egypt, revoluons have been referred to as
leaderless revoluons, too many ordinary people
for the regimes to idenfy, repress or co-opt.
V. The future: from economics to polics and back
The authoritarian bargain proved to be unsustai-
nable. The transion from authoritarianism, either
orderly or through mass protests and toppling of
the incumbent rulers, should lead to more inclusive
polical system with space, in the decision-making
process, to polical diversity and civil society par-
cipaon (labor union, private sector organizaons,
and youth organizaons).
The end of the authoritarian bargain requires a clear
shi from patronage-based legimacy to raonal le-
gimacy built on constuonal means, and perfor-
mance-based economic and development agencies.
But the polical openness is not the ulmate objec-
ve, it should be reected in economic and social
policies and its eects trickle down to middle and
poor segments of the populaon. By shiing from
cooptaon and clientelism to merit-based mecha-
nisms of appointment and promoon in the public
sector, more opportunies should be available for
young and female leadership, and other under-re-
presented social or ethnic segments.
Instead of rents for patronage, the government
in the region need to design appropriate incen-
tive schemes based on economic efficiency and
social justice considerations. To be effective, po-
licymakers need to focus on four pillars.
First, review the scal policy and aim for a more
equitable system: direct taxaon more than indirect
taxes, progressive income taxes, combat fraud and
evasion and unjused exempons. In most coun-
tries in the region, there are more indirect taxes
than direct taxes. For instance, only one third of Tu-
nisias taxes are coming from direct taxes compared
to two thirds from indirect taxes [44]. The burden of
indirect taxes falls much more on the poor as they
Figure. 4. Internet penetraon rates in Jordan, Morocco
and Tunisia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Jordan Morocco Tunisia
Source: Calculaons by L.Achy
Figure. 5. Internet penetraon rates in Algeria, Egypt and
Syria
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Algeria Egypt Syria
Source: Calculaons by L.Achy
-46-
usually consume their enre income. The rich can
escape indirect taxes and can benet from tax fa-
vors by saving or invesng part of their income. Re-
garding direct taxaon, individuals pay more taxes
compared to companies (65 percent for the former
and 35 percent for the laer). The modest contribu-
on of corporate taxes is not due to a low nominal
corporate tax rate, which is set at 30 percent, but
to a generous system of scal incenves granted to
a selected set of companies under the investment
code. Over the period 2000-2007, the government
gave up every year between 50 and 60 percent of
due corporate taxes in the form of tax incenves. In
Egypt, non-oil private sector companies make a very
modest contribuon to the states revenues.
Second, design an appropriate industrial policy
with a comprehensive medium to long term eco-
nomic strategy. The countries in the region need to
reform exisng distorons in their trade policies and
streamline their incenve schemes. There are lessons
that they can learn from the Turkish and South Ko-
rean experience.
Third, policy makers in the region should design ade-
quate incenves to channel resources toward selec-
ted high-value added and knowledge-intensive sec-
tors to absorb educated labor. The contribuon of the
most export-oriented sectors to economic growth has
been limited due to their low value added and weak
integraon with the rest of the economy.
Fourth, policy makers in the region should strengthen
market mechanisms and reinforce transparency for
an ecient allocaon of resources. To this end, they
need to reinforce compeon authories and the im-
plementaon of pro-compeve regulaons. Most
countries have compeon laws in line with inter-
naonal standards, implementaon issues remain,
however [45].
Notes:
1: According to Desai et al., (2009), the authorita-
rian bargain refers to an implicit arrangement
or contract between the regime and the popula-
on whereby people renounce to their polical
freedom and polical parcipaon in exchange
for public goods and other economic benets
2: According to Richard and Waterbury (2008),
the large cohorts of literate, urban Arabs could
no longer be contained within the paternalisc
authoritarian and repressive regimes
3: The slogans used by protesters in the region insis-
ted more on dignity, freedom and social jusce
4: Polical legimacy is the popular acceptance
of a regime. According to Max Weber, there are
three sources of legimacy: charismac autho-
rity derived from the leaders charisma; tradi-
onal authority earned from tradion (case of a
monarchy) and raonallegal authority based on
constuonal rules
5: Albertus and Menaldo (2010)
6: One feddan is equivalent to 4.2 hectare
7: El-Ghonemy (1990), The Polical Economy of
Rural Poverty: The case of land reform, London:
Routeledge 1990
8: UNDP (undated), Macroeconomic policies for
poverty reducon: The case of Syria
9: UNDP (undated)
10: Rural populaon accounts for 45 percent of the
total populaon with large regional dierences
11: UNDP (undated)
12: World Bank (1992) Arab Republic of Egypt: An
Agricultural Strategy of the 1990s, Report 11083-
EGT, Washington, D.C
13: Mohamed Abou-Mandour (1995)
14: Janvry and Sadoulet (2011), The three puzzles
of land reform
15: World Bank (2004) suggests that public sector
employment in MENA is part of a social contract
in which governments guaranteed young educa-
ted access to public jobs. MENA Development
Report: Unlocking the Employment Potenal in
the Middle East and North Africa. Washington,
DC
16: Ottaway and Choucair (2008), Beyond the fa-
ade: Political reforms in the Arab World
17: This word refers to the defeat of the Arab bloc
against Israel in the Five Days war in 1967
-47-
18: Kassem (2004), Egyptian Politics: The Dyna-
mics of Authoritarian Rule
19: U.S. State Department, 2001 Country Reports
on Human Rights Pracces: Egypt
20: Amnesty internaonal (2006), Jordans an-terro-
rism law opens door to new human rights violaons
21: UN CCPR (2004), Human rights body cricizes
an-terror law in Morocco
22: Congressional research service (2011), Tunisia:
recent developments and policy issues
23: According to Friedman the slogan among the
Arab autocrats was: Rule by fear -- strike fear in
the heart of your people by leng them know
that you play by no rules at all, so they wont
ever, ever, think about rebelling against you.
hp://www.nymes.com/2011/08/03/opinion/
the-new-hama-rules.html
24: Richards and Waterbury (2008), p 323
25: Pissaridies
26: Oaway and Hamzawy(2011), Protest move-
ments and polical change in the Arab world
27: Stephen King (2009), The new authoritarianism
in the Middle East and North Africa
28: Authors calculaon based on scal data in Tu-
nisia and La scalit tunisienne et la queson
de cohsion sociale UGTT (2006).
29: Stephen King (2009)
30: In the 2000 parliamentary elecons, indepen-
dent candidates won more than half of the seats
of the Peoples Assembly compared with 38 per-
cent for the ruling Naonal Democrac Party
(NDP). However, as most of the independents la-
ter joined the NDP bloc, the ruling party enjoyed
a solid 87 percent majority in the assembly. See
for details, Dunne and Hamzawy (2008) in Ma-
rina and Choucair
31: Stephen King (2009)
32: According to Gregory Gause (2005), no one can
predict the course a new democracy will take,
but based on public opinion surveys and re-
cent elecons in the Arab world, the democracy
seems likely to produce new.
33: Sami Bibi and Mustapha Nabli (2010), Equity
and inequality in the Arab region, ERF Policy Re-
search Papers
34: Extract from Egypt on the Brink (2010) that re-
fers to Petra Kuppinger (Pyramids and Alleys)
35: IMF (2011), Food prices and polical instability
36: These are the most recent data available. Other
more up to date stascs reveal that the regional
divide has exacerbated since 2004
37: We used the ad hoc denion that denes a
formal enterprise as an enterprise with more
than 5 employees
38: Hibou, Meddeb and Hamdi (2011), Tunisia aer
14 January and its social and polical economy
39: hp://www.gp.org/index.php?opon=com_
content&task=view&id=366&Itemid=70
40: Bernard Lewis (2005), Freedom and Jusce in
the Modern Middle East, Foreign Aairs
41: Naonal Human Development Report (2010)
42: Rier and Trechsel (2011), On the Role of Texts,
Tweets, and Status Updates in Nonviolent Revo-
luons
43: Rier and Trechsel (2011)
44: The gures are based on the data on scal re-
venues (not including revenues from oil compa-
nies) during the period 2005-2009
45: acknowledgement to very valuable research
assistance provided by: Joulan Abdulkhalek and
Peter Gruskin
-48-
-49-
challenges, the undersized and badly coordinated pu-
blic policies implemented have not been as successful
as expected (Secon 6).
I. Young People, a real source of wealth for MENA
Countries provided they are mobilised
Although most Mediterranean countries (MENA
Countries) [1] have made their demographic tran-
sion, the proporon of young people (15-24
years old) in the populaon is sll very high. In
2009, half of the 280 million inhabitants in MENA
Countries was less than 24 years old (Table 1), this
rao was 60% in 1980 (Figure 1). The 0-14 years
old who accounted for 40% of the populaon at
the beginning of the 1980s represent only 30%
while the share of the 15-24 years old remained
stable at around 20%. The average growth rate
of the populaon of MENA Countries which was
2.5% per year over the 1980s is now at 1.5% and
should be less than 1% over the next two decades
(Figure 2). Recent demographic changes seem to
work towards a lower relave tension on the la-
bor market.
Nevertheless, the demographic growth will
weigh on the labor market because, according
to UN projections, the population of all MENA
countries is expected to increase by a quarter
by 2030 to approximate a total of 350 million
people. The 15-24 years old would then account
for around 70 million people against 55 million
today. This perspective implies that the labor
market would have to be able to absorb these
-49-
CHAPTER 3. YOUTH EMPLOYMENT IN THE MPS
Introducon
The issue of young people employability (15-24 years
old) in Mediterranean countries (MENA countries)
has grown so much over the past ten years to ini-
ate the revolt of the Arab Spring. Indeed it is quite
relevant to note that the event which triggered this
wave of protests was the self-immolaon by re of
a young Tunisian university graduate following an
altercaon with a policeman about his informal
business as a street vendor. The persistence and wor-
sening dicules in integrang the young people
into the labor market during the past decade have
generated deep discontent between young people,
especially the most educated, and society. The so-
cial cohesion in force did not resist the deterioraon
of young peoples living condions resulng from a
long-term exclusion from the labor market. This eco-
nomic exclusion has also reinforced a sense of social
and polical exclusion. Indeed, the opening to the
world through the media and especially informaon
and communicaon technologies (ICT) has changed
the aspiraons of the younger generaons in MENA
countries and the way the society works and the role
they could play in it. Consequently, the generaon
gap regarding adults and public authories, sll roo-
ted in a tradional mindset, has widened quickly, up
to the split for Tunisia and Egypt.
The aim of this chapter is to assess the current situa-
on of young people in the labor market in MENA
countries so as to draw conclusions about the long-
term acons to be taken. Although young people in
MENA countries account for a signicant force (Sec-
on 1), and more educated force (Secon 2) their
integraon into the labor market is sll dicult (Sec-
on 3) marked especially by an insecure relaonship
between educaon and unemployment (Secon 4).
The dicules met by young people to land a job are
a maer of both macro-economic and micro-econo-
mic (Secon 5) and cover a wide spectrum of public
intervenon (training-educaon, specialized produc-
on, nancing business...). Faced with these systemic
Figure 1. Share of the young people (0-24 years old) in the total
populaon
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Tunisia
Israel
Lebanon
Turkey
Algeria
Morocco
MPs
Egypt
Jordan
Syria
Palestine
1980
2009
Source : BIT, BASE KILM
-50-
additional millions of people in the next two
decades.
II. An increasing number of young graduates
A Widespread access to primary and secondary
cycles of education
Educaon has been the stronghold of the period
aer the independence. The self-centered regimes
introduced from the outset had as a main objecve
to disseminate knowledge as widely as possible. For
example, in 1955, Tunisia had around 65,000 stu-
dents for the 350,000 originang from European
countries against 3,500 students corresponding to
the 6 million nave people. Therefore a major quan-
tave eort had to be made, and this was done at
the cost of considerable public engagement.
This eort was intensied in recent decades which
has enabled MENA countries to catch-up much
of their delay. Now, in most MENA countries, the
literacy rate of young people is above 90%. Two
countries stand out as excepons, Morocco (80%)
and to a lesser extent Egypt (86%). The primary
school was widely widespread among the popu-
laon. The gross primary school enrollment rao
is virtually 100%. In high school, whereas it was
lower than 50% in most MENA countries prior to
1990, the gross enrollment rao is now close to or
exceeds 80% (Table 2). Morocco, Egypt, and Syria
have gross secondary school enrollment rao far
behind. Morocco, despite a major eort since the
1990s, is sll lagging behind in this domain with a
gross secondary enrollment rao lower than 60%.
Despite their progress, MENA countries should
keep up their eorts to catch up in terms of edu-
caon compared to some Asian countries or even
Lan America countries. With the slowdown in
demographic growth, MENA countries should not
have dicules to catch up this quantave delay
in the next decade.
Table 1. Populaon of the MPs and share of young people (0-24 years old)
Populaon Share of the total populaon
(in thousands,
2009)
(in %)
0-14 yrs old 15-24 yrs old
Pop. of
working age
(15-64 yrs old)
Total
populaon
0-14 yrs old 15-24 yrs old 0-24 yrs old 15-64 yrs old
Algeria 9529 7341 23752 34895 27 21 48 68
Egypt 26816 17148 52400 82999 32 21 53 63
Isral 1989 1112 4459 7170 28 16 43 62
Jordan 2177 1305 3909 6316 34 21 55 62
Libanon 1068 764 2847 4224 25 18 43 67
Morocco 9082 6414 21197 31993 28 20 48 66
Palesnian Terr. 1919 847 2233 4277 45 20 65 52
Syria 7669 4616 13537 21906 35 21 56 62
Tunisia 2387 2030 7195 10271 23 20 43 70
Turkey 20060 13282 50350 74816 27 18 45 67
MENA Countries 82696 54858 181878 278868 30 20 49 65
Source : BIT, BASE KILM
Figure 2. Average annual growth rate of the populaon
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Algeria
Egypt Israel
Jordan
LebanonMorocco Palestine
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey
MPs
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2009
2010-2030
Source: BIT, BASE KILM, 2010-2030 UN forecasts according to the median scenario.
-51-
The rst point that is a problem today and which has
been highlighted by all the reports of internaonal or-
ganizaons is the improvement in the quality of their
educaon system. Moreover, the rapid increase in the
secondary and terary gross enrollment rao has not
been accompanied by a rise in educaon spending,
the share of public spending in GDP has remained
relavely stable over the period (around 5%-6% of
GDP). The PISA survey conducted by the OECD on 15
years old shows that Tunisia and Jordan, whichare the
only countries in the area to have the courage to sub-
mit to this assessment, are among the worst ranked
countries (55th place out of 65 countries) in reading,
mathemacs and sciences (Table 3). The TIMSS Sco-
re (Trends in Internaonal Math and Science Study)
shows the same result: the average level for MENA
countries (401) is slightly lower than that of Lan
American countries (406) but signicantly lower than
that of East Asian (466). Even, when the score is ad-
justed to take into account the dierence in GDP per
capita and secondary gross enrollment rate, the re-
sult is sll lower in MENA countries. The adjust score
reveals, for example, that in Jordan, Lebanon, and
Egypt students have lower score than GDP/capita and
gross enrollment would predict (World Bank, 2008).
For Egypt, Hamer (2007) listed the main weaknesses
of the training system in universies. It menons the
fact that the courses are mainly provided by badly or
poorly trained students, with very high absenteeism
rates among both teachers and students, very high
rate of drop-outs especially in the rst short cycle of
two years (50% drop-out), an obsolete curriculum
and unsuitable for the labor market, etc...
The second problemac point, sll related to the
quality of the educaon system, is the rising number
of drop outs consistent with the rise in enrollment
rate. The drop out includes both compulsory educa-
Table 2. Gross enrollment rate (GER) and Net enrollment rate (NER) in
Mediterranean countries, 2009
TBS Primary
TBS
Secondary
TNS Primary
TNS
Secondary
TBS Terary
Algeria 108 96 94 66 31
Egypt 101 67 93 65 28
Jordan (2008) 97 88 89 82 41
Libanonon 103 82 90 75 53
Morocco (2007) 107 56 90 ... 13
Palesnian occupied
Terr.
79 87 75 85 46
Syria 122 75 ... 69 ...
Tunisia 108 90 98 ... 34
Turkey (2008) 99 82 95 74 38
Israel 111 89 97 86 63
World 107 68 88 60 27
Arab States 97 68 85 59 22
Central and Eastern
Europe
99 88 93 81 65
Central Asia 98 96 89 88 25
Eastern Asia and the
Pacic
111 78 94 65 28
Lan America and the
Caribbean
117 90 94 73 37
North America and
Western Europe
102 100 95 90 72
Southern & Western
Asia
110 56 87 ... 10
Subsaharan Africa 101 36 76 24 6
Source : Unesco
Table 3. Performance of students in reading, mathemacs
and sciences, from PISA (2009) [2]
Rang
Comprehension
of wrien text
Culture
mathemacs
Culture
science
Average
OCDE
493 496 501
1
Shanghai-
China
556 600 575
22 France 496 497 498
32 Greece 483 466 470
33 Spain 481 483 488
37 Israel 474 447 455
41 Turkey 464 445 454
44 Chile 449 421 447
46 Bulgaria 429 428 439
48 Mexico 425 419 416
49 Roumania 424 427 428
50 Thailand 421 419 425
53 Brazil 412 386 405
55 Jordan 405 387 415
56 Tunisia 404 371 401
57 Indonesia 402 371 383
58 Argenna 398 388 401
64 Azerbaijan 362 431 373
65 Kyrgyzstan 314 331 330
Source : PISA 2009 database of the OECD
-52-
on (15-25%) secondary and terary educaon. In-
deed nearly half of adults connuing their educaon
beyond the compulsory school leave the educaon
system without validang their training (World Bank,
2008). With the inux of students in higher levels of
educaon, the case of drop out can become a major
issue for MENA countries if they do not put in place
alternave systems such as schools of second chance
A very rapid increase in the number of univer-
sity students
In MENA countries, since the mid-1990s, the number
of young people connuing their studies at a higher
level in high school has increased dramacally. For
example, in Tunisia, the number of university stu-
dents has increased threefold since the mid-1990s
from 100,000 to over 360,000 in 2009, and the new
students who were 25,000 in 1995 have gone up to
90,000 in 2008 (Table 4). In Algeria, the rise was just as
signicant, the number of students in higher educaon
increased from 300,000 in 1995 to over 1.1 million in
2009. If we compare the number of students in the
higher educaon to the populaon, MENA countries,
except Morocco, have between 3,000 and 4,800 stu-
dents per 100,000 people (Figure 3). Morocco, which
had nearly three mes as many students in higher
educaon as Tunisia in the 1990s is now set back with
only 1,300 students per 100,000 people. These rapid
changes in student numbers result in a rapid rise in
the number of graduates who enter the labor market.
Thus, Egypt and Turkey have more than 400,000 new
graduates arrive on the labor market every year. In Al-
geria, the gure is 150,000, in Tunisia and Morocco it
is close to 70,000. These countries then need to pro-
vide jobs matching the skills and the expectaons of
these new graduates, both in terms of salary and wor-
king condions.
III. A dicult transion from educaon systems to
the labor market
Very low labor force parcipaon rate
Mediterranean countries are characterized by the
lowest labor force parcipaon rate among the major
regions of the world. Indeed, on average, one person
out of two aged 15+ works in Mediterranean coun-
tries whereas this rate is close to 60% in EU countries
and is 65% on a world global scale (Figure 4). This low
parcipaon rate is mainly due to that of women
that being less than 25% [3] in most MENA countries,
against an average of 52% on a global scale. The par-
cipaon rate for all MENA countries remained stable
over the period 1980-2009, as it was 52% in the early
Table 4. Number of students in terary educaon
(in thousands) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009
Algeria 259 298,8 ..... 792,1 ..... 1149,7
Egypt 733,3 ..... ..... 2397,4 2488,4 .....
Israel 122,6 182,8 255,9 310,9 325,2 342,7
Jordan 69,4 87,5 142,2 217,8 254,8 .....
Libanon 815,9* 1160,1 1657,3 1966,8 1996,6
Morocco 253,9 294,5 276,4 366,9 401,1 418,8
Syria 214,2 215,7 ..... ..... ..... .....
Palesnian Terr. ..... ..... 71,2 138,1 180,9 182,6
Tunisia 62,7 102,7 180 311,6 350,8 360,2
Turkey 685,5 1174,3 1588,4 2106,4 2532,6 .....
Source : Unesco, Public and private. Full and part me *1996
Figure 3. Number of students in terary educaon
per 100,000 inhabitants
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Morocco
Egypt (03 & 08)
Algeria
Turkey (08)
Tunisia
Jordan (00 & 08)
Palestine
Lebanon
Isral
1999
2009
Source : Unesco
Figure 4. Labor force parcipaon rate by region (2008)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
MPs (2009)
Developed Economies & EU
Central & SE Europe (non-EU) & CIS
South Asia
WORLD
Latin America & the Caribbean
SE Asia & the Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
Source :BIT, BASE KILM
MENA countries: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palesne,
Syria, Tunisia andTurkey
-53-
1980s. However, some countries such as Turkey and
to a lesser extent, Tunisia, saw their parcipaon rate
decrease over the period, unlike Algeria and Israel for
which we observe a rise (Figure 5). The level of edu-
caon plays an important role in the parcipaon of
women in parcular. For example in Turkey, the fema-
les parcipaon rate is 15% for those with a level of
educaon lower in high school while it rises to 75%
for those whose level of educaon is higher in high
school (Dovis and Kocoglu, 2009).
For the young people, the parcipaon rate in
MENA countries is relave to the other parts of the
world much lower: 38% against 51%.This discre-
pancy is explained, as noted above, in large part by
the females low parcipaon rate . The parcipa-
on rate of young people in most MENA countries
is on average 30% lower than that of the 15 year
olds and older (Figure 7). This gap of parcipaon
rates between young people and the enre po-
pulaon is comparable to the one observed on a
global scale and reects mainly the fact that young
people connue to study. This gap has tended to
increase over the past two decades, meaning that
a larger part of the youth tends to pursue their stu-
dies over a longer period.
To sum up, if we assume that the acvity rate (es-
pecially of women) in MENA countries will conver-
ge to other regions of the world, the demographic
eect will then be added to the second acvity
rate eect involving employment needs in the
next decades. By projecng the populaon dyna-
mics, Blanc (2011) esmates that the MENA coun-
tries would need to create a minimum of 34 million
new jobs by 2030 simply to keep the parcipaon
rate and the unemployment rate at their current
level. This gure rises to 90 million if the aim is to
provide a job to all the new entrants into the labor
market. In other words, the number of job crea-
ons has to double if the number of job seekers
does not change.
Youth face high unemployment rate[4]
MENA countries are by far the region of the
world in which the youth unemployment rate is
the highest: 25%, that is to say, twice as much as
the world average (Figure 8).
Figure 5. Labor force parcipaon rate of the 15 yrs old and + (in %)
30
32,5
35
37,5
40
42,5
45
47,5
50
52,5
55
57,5
60
62,5
65
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Algeria
Israel
Morocco
Syria
Jordan
Egypt
Tunisia
Turkey
Lebanon
Palestine
Source :BIT Base KILM.
Figure 6. Youth labor force parcipaon rate and employ-
ment rate (15-24 years old, 2009)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jor. Pal. Leb. Tun. Egy. Tur. Isr. MPs Syr. Mor. Alg. World
(2008)
Activity rate
Employment
rate
Source :BIT Base KILM.
Figure 7. Rate of acvity of the 15 year olds and + compared with that of young
people (15-24 year olds)
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
Syria
Algeria
Turkey
Morocco
MPs
Egypt
Tunisia
Israel
Lebanon
Palestine
Jordan
World*
2009
2000
1990
Source :BIT Base KILM.
Reading: obtained by the following calculaon: (rate of acvity of the 15+) / (Rate
of acvity of the 15-24 yr olds).In 2009, in the Mediterranean countries (MENA),
the rate of acvity of the 15 and +was 31% higher than that of young people
Figure 8. Youth unemployment rate by region
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0
MPs
Cent. & Eastern Europe (non EU)
S.E Asia and Pacific
Latin America & Carib.
Developed econ. and EU
World
Sub-Sah. Africa
South Asia
East Asia
15-24 ans 25 ans et +
Source : BIT, BASE KILM
MENA: average of the following countries: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Leba-
non, Morocco, Palesne, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey
-54-
The situaon of young people with the excepon
of Israel is crical for most MENA countries espe-
cially Egypt and Tunisia (Figure 9). Egypt in fact
stands out with a youth unemployment rate near-
ly six mes higher than that of adults. Tunisia [5]
and the Palesnian Territories have the highest le-
vel of youth unemployment rate in the region with
respecvely 30% and 45%. Thus, young people in
MENA countries (except Israel), account for one
third and 60% of the unemployed (Figure 10). This
rao tends to increase with the nancial crisis as
a result of the drop in labor demand, precarious
contracts for young people who are vicms of the
last-in rst-out rule (Scarpea et al. (2010)) and
their lack of experience (Perigini and Signorell,
2010). Moreover, the crisis increases the structu-
ral problems which aect the transion between
the educaonal system and work; young people
have to nd a job to survive in parcular in the
informal sector.
This situaon of high unemployment rate for
young people represents the main challenge for
MENA countries insofar as it has important con-
sequences on the dynamics of the economy, the
inter-generaonal balance and the relaonship of
young people with society and may have impor-
tant polical repercussions, as was shown by the
events of the Arab Spring.
We shall rstly analyze youth unemployment accor-
ding to the level of educaon and then take an inte-
rest in the average length of youth unemployment.
IV. The educaon/unemployment relaonship: a
source of major concern for the youth
From a macro-economic perspecve, investment
in human capital is jused because it is one of
the most important sources of economic growth
(Maguain, 2007, Aghion and Cohen 2004, for a
review). From a micro-economic perspecve, in-
vestment in educaon is jused in human capi-
tal theory by the percepon of a wage premium
and/or a lower risk of unemployment. This result
holds generally: the higher level of educaon an
individual has the greater the chance he has, for
a given specialty, to get beer job and a higher
wage. Econometric studies on the private rate
of return to educaon in MENA countries clearly
show a signicant posive eect between the le-
vel of educaon and wages but the level of this
private return is very heterogeneous. It seems
relavely low in Morocco and Algeria, countries
where the extra year of educaon provides a gain
in terms of wage less than or equal to 5%. For
Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey, the results are fairly
consistent with those obtained for the developed
countries, between 5% and 15% (Dovis and Koco-
glu, 2009). In MENA countries, the private rate of
return to educaon seems to increase with the
level of educaon in contrast to results obtained
in other parts of the world. This result could be
linked to the important share of public employ-
ment for graduates of secondary and higher edu-
caon (World Bank, 2004). These results should
be taken with cauon since these studies are re-
Figure 9. Youth unemployment rate in Mediterranean countries (15-24
years old)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Israel
Syria (2007)
Morocco Lebanon
(2007)
Algeria
(2006)
Egypt
(2007)Turkey
MPs
JordanTunisia (2005)
Palestine
15-24
24 et +
Source : BIT, BASE KILM
MENA: average of the following countries: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Leba-
non, Morocco, Palesne, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey
Figure 10. Share of youth unemployed out of the total unemployed
populaon (2009)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Egypt (2007)
Syria (2007)
Lebanon (2007)
Algeria (2006)
MPs
Tunisia (2005)
Morocco
Turkey
Israel
Source : BIT, BASE KILM
MENA: average of the following countries: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Mo-
rocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey
-55-
lavely old and therefore they parally account
the recent deterioraon of young graduates in-
seron in the labor market. Then, if the posive
relaonship between educaon and wage seems
robust, that between educaon and employment
is more fragile. In developing countries, and par-
cularly in MENA countries, this result may indeed
be quesoned because of market imperfecons
in the labor market and/or a serious imbalance
between supply and demand for graduates.
University graduates are more likely to be unem-
ployed than non-graduates
The rapid increase in graduates supply (Table 4) has
not encounter the expected number of jobs, in conse-
quence the youth graduates unemployment rate has
increased. Although the available database about the
unemployment rate by level of educaon from the
ILO is very incomplete, data reveal, for most MENA
countries, a growing relaonship between the unem-
ployment rate and the level of educaon (Figure 11).
This result highlights the mismatch between gradua-
tes labor supply on the one side and the graduates
labor demand on the other side. The case of Tunisia is
a good illustraon of this imbalance.
The graduates high unemployment rate enigma
in Tunisia
Over the 1999-2008 period, the pace of Tunisian
economic growth was good, equal to 5% per year
on average. However, while this performance was
enough to keep the overall unemployment rate
constant, it failed to ght against a phenomenon
that has become a concern in most MENA coun-
tries: the signicant increase in the university
graduates unemployment rate. This trend was so
marked that over one in ve university graduates
are unemployed, while the unemployment rate for
the whole of workforce is 14%. How can we explain
the inverse relaonship appears between the level
of educaon and unemployment rate despite high
level of economic growth?
Analysis of the Tunisian labor market shows that
university graduates represented 17% of the
3.7 million labor force in 2008 against only 8%
in 1999. This rate has doubled in less than ten
years reflecting the strong increase in the gra-
duate workforce on the Tunisian labor market.
The rise in the university graduates unemploy-
ment rate, especially from 2004, shows that the
labor market has not been able to absorb this
new workforce. Indeed, the graduates unem-
ployment rate has more than doubled over this
period. It went from 8% in 1999 to over than
23% in 2009 while the unemployment rate for
the whole of labor force remained relatively
stable at around 14%. University graduates are
well gone from being relatively protected from
unemployment to first victims of unemploy-
ment in Tunisia (Figure 12). Also, out of nearly
600,000 active university graduates in Tunisia,
128,000 are unemployed and a quarter of unem-
ployed are university graduate in Tunisia (Ben-
halima et al, 2011). For other categories of the
population (lower degree than university level
or no diploma) the unemployment rate did not
experience this strong rise. For graduates of pri-
mary school, it decreased from 19% to 12% and
for high school graduates, it would have remai-
ned stable at around 16%. These figures would
highlight that the unemployment crisis is speci-
fic to university graduates in Tunisia. Since 2007,
we have seen in Tunisia a positive relationship
between unemployment rate and the level of
education. Stampini and Verdier-Chouchane
(2011) also found, from an econometric model
performed with data from the labor force survey
(LFS), having a university diploma increases the
probability of being in unemployed.
Figure 11. Unemployment rate by level of educaon (2007, %)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Morocco Algeria Tunisia Egypt
(2006)
Palestine
(2008)
Jordan Lebanon
(2004)
Turkey Israel
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Source: Marn (2009) et BIT, BASE KILM
-56-
The 2004 survey conducted jointly by the Tuni-
sian Ministry of Employment and the World Bank
on the inseron in the labor market of a sam-
ple of nearly 4,800 university graduates shows
results even more negave on the situaon of
graduates. Indeed, 18 months aer graduaon,
46% of youth are unemployed and only 31% are
in employment. If the situaon improved in the
second wave of survey 3.5 years aer graduaon,
it is sll very negave. Only one out of two young
graduate had a job and 30% is sll unemployed,
a large majority in a paern of persistent unem-
ployment (World Bank, 2009).
The parcular case of Turkey
In Turkey, graduates unemployment rate is, as
predicted by the theory, lower than that obser-
ved for primary and secondary school graduates.
In contrast, high school graduates have a higher
or idencal unemployment rate than a lower level
graduates. In Turkey, the bell-shaped relaonship
between the level of educaon and the unem-
ployment rate is not new and can be seen over
the period 2000-2010 (Figure 13). This result is
related to the relaonship between the level of
educaon parcipaon rate and unemployment
rate for women. In Turkey, females parcipaon
rate is generally very low but it increases quite
sharply with the level of educaon. The par-
cipaon rate of women increased from 15% for
those whose level of educaon is primary to 30%
for secondary and 70% for the university level. A
high parcipaon rate may then lead to a greater
unemployment rate if female graduates do not
nd a job. While for female graduates from the
university the unemployment rate remains in the
naonal average (15%), it is higher (26%) for high
school graduates (Figure 14). Also, the bell-sha-
ped curve relaonship between educaon level
and unemployment rate observed in Turkey is due
to the very high unemployment rate of women
with a secondary educaon level. In Turkey, the
structural trend shows an increase in the level of
Figure 12. Unemployment rate by level of educaon in Tunisia
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999 2004 2009
Total
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Source: Ministry of Employment and Occupaonal Integraon of Young People
Figure 13. Rate of unemployment according to the level of
educaon in Turkey, (whole of the populaon)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2001 2002 20032004*2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Sources : Turkstat , *Change of methodology in the employment sur-
vey in 2004
Figure 14. Unemployment rate by level of educaon in Turkey, (total populaon)
Sources : Turkstat
*Change of methodology in the employment survey in 2004
4
9
14
19
24
29
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Male
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Female
-57-
educaon especially for women. Currently 9% of
female have a higher level than the high school
against 13% for male. But with the new genera-
ons, women are much more present than men
in higher educaon: for the generaon 1977-81,
25% of women have reached a higher level of
educaon in High School against 21% of men. This
increase of the level of educaon of women could
lead inially to an increase in unemployment rate
by the transion eect from being non-acve to
acve but have a long-term posive eect on Tur-
kish economic growth (Dovis and Kocoglu, 2009).
V. How can the youth graduates high unemploy-
ment rate be explained?
Despite a sasfactory growth rate in the region (5%
per year on average) the unemployment rate for
university graduates increases this means number
of job creaons for graduates is insucient com-
pared with the demand. This result indicates that
the relaonship between the economy growth rate
and the net creaon of skilled jobs is weak because
of growth path with poor total factor producvity
gains (Blanc et al., 2007).
An exagerated public sector bias
Historically, the public sector was the main out-
let for university graduates in MENA countries
(World Bank, 2004). Although this distoron of
skilled jobs to the poorly producve public sec-
tor may be sub-opmal for long-term dynamics,
because it hampers the total factor producvity
(TFP) gains, it may provide some social cohesion
between young people and society. This social
contract has slowly disintegrated under the ef-
fect of a double evoluon. On the one hand, as
described above, the numbers of graduates has
increased rapidly while, on the other hand, there
is a decline or a slowdown in hiring in public sec-
tors. Indeed, MENA countries have commied
themselves during the 1990s, under the impetus
of structural adjustment programs, to privaza-
on and liberalizaon policies for their economy
and have faced severe budgetary constraints. For
example in Morocco, the share of the public and
semi-public sector in total employment (including
non-graduates) rose from 11% in 1999 to 8.5% in
2010 [6]. In Egypt, where the public sector has
much greater share, the share of public employ-
ment has rose from 35% in 1995 to 31% in 2004
(Amer, 2007) and in Tunisia from 19% in 1997 to
13% in 2003 (INS). The public sector oers nu-
merous advantages compared with the private
sector, such as employment protecon, access
to social security fund with favorable condions
for the pension system and, what is another im-
portant element, a higher starng wage. In most
MENA countries, wages in the public sector are
actually higher than in private sector. The gap is
parcularly important in Morocco with an ave-
rage wage in the public sector 75% higher than in
private sector (Table 5). These benets, in parcu-
lar the wage gap, aect the job-search strategy of
individuals by changing among other things, their
reservaon wage especially for graduates.
Using the survey on the integraon of Tunisian 2004
university graduates, Ben Halima and al. (2010)
show that graduates who nd a job, 18 months af-
ter graduaon, receive, all things being equal, a hi-
gher average wage than those who nd a job in the
private sector. These wage benets in public jobs
are based solely on the integraon of a Masters
degree. Indeed, if the laer succeed the entrance
examinaons in the public sector, they will access
to employment, especially in Educaon, with an
average wage of about 520 Dinars. However, if
they fail the entrance exam, they are either unem-
ployed or have access to low-paid jobs (on average
Table 5. Average wages paid in the private sector and in the
public sector (in euro per month)
Morocco Algeria Tunisia Egypt Palesne Jordan Libanon Syria
Public
Sector
489 180 153 349 335 150
Private
Sector
281 220 338 106 315 268 484 144
Minimum
wage
163 120 133,5 102 157 256 103
Source: Marn (2009), table 2.3.1
-58-
290 Dinars) in the private sector and mostly in the
informal sector. For the other degrees, the authors
nd no signicant wage dierences between pu-
blic jobs and private jobs. This laer result shows
that the private sector is not, in terms of wage,
suciently aracve for graduates. The report of
World Bank on the situaon of these graduates 3.5
years aer graduaon conrms these results: the
wages of the graduates employed in the civil servi-
ce are on average 36% higher than those employed
in the private sector. In Morocco too, we observe
that starng wages in the public sectors are on
average 40% higher than those in the private sec-
tor (Boudarbat, 2004). Thus the combinaon of a
scarcity of public sector jobs and the rapid growth
in the number of graduates has led to the forma-
on of long waing lists as described in the job
compeon model (Thurow, 1975). The young
graduates of MENA countries would be more likely
in rent-seeking strategies with obtaining job in pu-
blic sector and thus steer away from more produc-
ve acvies for growth (Pissarides, 2000). Conse-
quently, young people are likely to choose courses
of generalist training which provide higher chance
to access to public sector jobs, to benet from so-
cial advantages and beer wage. Then, aer gra-
duaon, they would wait for a job corresponding
to their expectaons in terms of wages and wor-
king condions which the public sector is best able
to provide them (Boudarbat, 2004).
These studies on the bias introduced by the share
of the public sector sll remain nevertheless to be
consolidated by micro-econometric studies espe-
cially by quesoning students strategy as to their
choice of training and their behavior in the queue.
Furthermore, studies on the importance of public
sector in MENA countries date from the 1990s [7],
and in the absence of recent stascs on the sub-
ject, it is dicult to analyze more precisely the role
of the public sector on the employment of young
graduates over the last decade. Finally, it is dicult
to have an in-depth stascal analysis of the private
sector since informal sector plays a major role in
the economies of MENA countries.
The dicult transion towards the knowledge
economy
The recruitment of graduates in the private sec-
tor has on its side remained relatively non-dy-
namic absorbing only a very low proportion of
the additional graduates. Indeed, the productive
structure of the MENA countries is till turned
towards sectors with low level needs in highly
qualified labor (agriculture, services, tourism,
manufacturing industries with low technologi-
cal content). In Tunisia, for example, 90% of the
jobs in the textiles/clothing sector is made up of
operational agents, with executives representing
less than 5% of jobs (source: ONEQ). If we con-
tinue with the example of Tunisia, we observe
that from the labor demand side, the evolution
has been relatively stable since the beginning
of the 2000s: the Tunisian economy generates,
on average, each year nearly 80,000 new jobs
which is sufficient to contain or even slightly
reduce the unemployment rate among working
people as a whole. However, the nature of the
jobs proposed does not correspond to that of
the work offer. It would be necessary to create a
minimum of 50,000 new for university graduates
and 30,000 for lower levels of education. Yet the
Tunisian economy currently proposes the op-
posite: 50,000 poorly qualified jobs and 30,000
qualified jobs (Zabi, 2008).
This inappropriateness between the dynamics of
the oer and that of the demand for work hence
explains, from a quantave point of view, the im-
portant rise in the unemployment rate of university
graduates. However, the evoluon of the producve
structure towards a growth mode more focused on
the knowledge economy requires structural econo-
mic policies (other than those based upon nancial
aids to companies hiring young graduates, cf. above)
and long transion mes. It should be noted that
the rapid development of the level of educaon
has not been translated, unlike the predicons of
the standard economic models, by very large gains
in producvity (Blanc et al, 2007). This underlines
-59-
the fact that the growth regime of these countries
sll remains a majority extensive with a very weak
growth of the TFP. This is the paradox of the pro-
ducvity associated with the MENA countries, to
take up and adapt the famous Solow formula (1987)
[8]: the graduates are everywhere except in the pro-
ducvity stascs. This situaon is harmful both on
the growth dynamics level for the young graduate
human capital is not used to support growth and
sends a negave signal for the future generaons
who may renounce invesng in educaon, prefer-
ring a less qualied job or emigraon.
The integraon of the generaon of young educa-
ted people requires the development of a formal
private sector which should be more oriented
towards qualitave sub-sectors which favor the
emergence of high added-value acvies such as
the new technologies in Tunisia, for example. The
corollary of this upgrading of the producve struc-
ture is a drop in the importance of the informal sec-
tor which represents, according to the esmaons
and methodology chosen, between 30% and 60%
of private jobs excluding agriculture in the MENA
countries. Such an important weight of the infor-
mal sector, while it provides a certain exibility to
the labor market and oers a minimum amount of
income, hampers the development of the acvies
with high producvity gains and reduces the e-
ciency of economic policies (Blanc et al., 2007).
Mismatch between skills supply and demand
The dierent reports of the World Bank (Kabbani
and Khotari, 2005 for example) used by other
studies (Marn, 2009 for example) on the ques-
on, present mainly the inappropriateness of
the training of young people compared with the
needs of companies as a major cause. University
training may be too oriented towards generalist
educaon and may neglect technical and scien-
c training and the quality of university educa-
on is likely to be of a relavely low level (Marn,
2009). For example, according to the survey car-
ried out on a sample of Tunisian graduates in
2004, the unemployment rate is highest among
the higher technical operaves and those holding
Masters degrees notably those graduates from
the sub-sectors of law and the human and so-
cial sciences (World Bank, 2009). To escape from
unemployment, young people may accept a job
which does not correspond to the level of their
diploma, they are then in a situaon of declas-
sicaon. For example, according to the results
of the survey of Tunisian graduates of 2004, the
declassicaon [9] aects 35% and 28% of them
respecvely 18 months and 3.5 years aer they
have obtained their diploma. Those with a Mas-
ters degree are the most aected by this phe-
nomenon especially those graduates in the ter-
ary sub-sectors such as law, the human sciences
or the economic and management sciences:
between 50% and 60% of declassicaons 3.5
years aer obtaining their diploma. It would thus
appear that these university graduates only ra-
rely nd a job given the high unemployment rate
and when they nd one, it generally does not
correspond to their level of qualicaon [10] or
is not at all in the special eld of their training.
Correcng this problem would require rethinking
the system of university training so as to adapt it
more to the needs of the private sector, this, for
example, is what the World Bank reports recom-
mend. However, data from UNESCO on the share
of the numbers in technical/professional educa-
on in the secondary cycle does not reveal the
systemac backwardness of the MENA countries
compared with the developing countries in other
regions. Thus, in Egypt, Turkey and Lebanon, for
example, the students in the secondary cycle in
occupaonal training represent between 15%
and 20% [11] of the total of students; that is the
same rao as in China or Mexico, for example.
The problem is not likely to be linked solely to the
volume of students trained but to the quality of
the training and its appropriateness to the needs
of businesses. There exists, at least in the minds of
recruiters, if not in the facts, a dierence between
obtaining a diploma and having a parcular com-
-60-
petence. Companies are looking for competence
and the diploma is not, in the case of countries
with a high rate of graduate unemployment, the
vector by which the young people signal their
competence and their level of producvity to
companies. We are likely then to be seeing the
failure of the signal eect of the diploma by two
eects. The rst is linked to the rapid rise of the
numbers in secondary educaon: according to
the signal theory (Spence, 1973) the eecveness
of the signal eect sent by the diploma will only
be eecve if the training plays the role of lter
and hence that obtaining the diploma necessi-
tates a large investment. Too easy an access, or
assumed so to be by recruiters, brings about a ra-
pid depreciaon of the diploma and would cancel
the signal eect associated with the diploma. The
second eect concerns the quality of the training
and the range of competence required to obtain
it. While recruiters are convinced that obtaining
the diploma in queson reveals no informaon on
the potenal producvity of the individuals,
they will not be able to use the diploma as an
element of the selecon of candidates. Further-
more, this result would be even stronger as the
students are heavily concentrated on a very small
number of diplomas. In fact, in the theory of the
lter (Arrow, 1973), the heterogeneity of the po-
sions available on the labor market requires in
return a heterogeneity of competence. If the uni-
versity produces homogeneous individuals for
the civil service its role of lter would disappear.
Faced with this devaluaon of diplomas, young
people seek other signaling strategies such as
using family or social networks, or acquiring ex-
perience through jobs requiring lower skills. One
of the challenges for educaonal policies to come
would consist in modifying the percepon that re-
cruiters, especially from the private formal sector,
have diplomas to give renewed credibility to the
signal sent by the training.
As pointed out previously, training in the MENA
countries is of a relavely poor quality (cf. Table 3)
which is also an explanaon put forward to explain
why the private sector does not use graduates in
greater number. Furthermore, the rapid rise in the
rates of schooling in the secondary and terary
cycles added to strong budgetary constraints have
not enabled an evoluon in the quality of training
(Dessus, 2001). The company managers quote the
poor quality of training as one of the major obs-
tacles to the hiring of young graduates (Assaad
and Roudi-Fahimi, 2007). Finally, the reproach is
also made to training in the MENA countries that
is does not prepare young people to become en-
trepreneurs and therefore create their own job.
While this idea is aracve it comes up notably
against the dicult access condions to loans in
the MENA countries as well as the various admi-
nistrave blockages and other market imperfec-
ons which limit the creaon of businesses (entry
barriers, high transacon costs, corrupon).
Economic and social exclusion: an ever present
risk for the youth
The unbalance between on the one hand the oer
of a qualicaon which is poorly adapted to the
needs of the labor market and a demand for gra-
duate labor less dynamic than the oer over the
past decade, has brought about a rise of the stock
of graduate jobseekers. The persistence of this im-
balance has had as a consequence a prolongaon
of the waing list. In the theorecal approach of
job compeon, individuals may, when the wai-
ng list gets longer, either choose to prolong their
wait therefore the length of their unemployment,
or change waing list by postulang for jobs which
are less in phase with the expectaons (job in the
formal private or informal sector). Given the dura-
on of unemployment of graduates especially the
rst to leave the educaonal system, it would seem
that the young people choose to remain in the lisy
(OHiggins, 2003). For example in Morocco more
than one young unemployed person out of two is
new entrant on the labor market (Lakhoua, 2010).
In Tunisia, the average duraon of unemployment
is 28 months for graduates from the university
against 19 months for non-graduates (Stampini
-61-
and Verdier-Chouchane, 2011). In Egypt, the ave-
rage me taken to nd a job for young people is
29 months. This problem may be accentuated by
the segmentaon into three components of the
MENA countries labor market: the public sector
with high salaries and good social protecon, an
informal market with low salaries and an absence
of protecon and the formal private sector with
average salaries and a high degree of rigidity. The
laer reect notably through an indicator which
measures the dicules of highest redundancies
than in other regions of the world (Figure 15).
These rigidies on the labor market are oen pre-
sented as the main causes of long term unemploy-
ment in the MENA countries as well as the large
and growing weight of jobs in the informal sector.
While the MENA countries have adopted since the
middle of the 1990s measures facilitang access
to the labor market with especially the develop-
ment of short term work contracts, on the redun-
dancy side, on the other hand, lile noteworthy
evoluon is to be signaled. Also the economic
redundancy procedures remain administravely
very complex and costly for the companies. In this
context, the informal sector is developing for it
represents an alternave both for young people
awaing a quality job in the public sector or in
the formal private sector and for companies which
escape from the weight of the administrave pro-
cedures and scal contribuons.
The problem of the length of the unemployment
of young graduates is a central issue in several
respects. Firstly, the estrangement of young peo-
ple from the labor market makes any back-to-
work iniave costly and uncertain. It leads to a
depreciaon of the human capital which is their
main asset on the labor market. It may turn away
future generaons durably from investments in
educaon and encourage young people to emi-
grate. We are then witnessing the appearance of
a discouraged class of young workers who may
fall into the trap of exclusion unemployment.
The leaving aside of the more highly educated
young generaons than the older generaons but
installed on the labor market is likely to create
a situaon of generaonal rupture: the adults
reproach young people for their poor movaon
in occupying a posion in the private sector and
the young reproach their elders for blocking their
situaon.
Migraon, a way out?
The MENA countries are living through large exit
migratory ows which aect especially the qualied
labor force. These exit ows are oriented essen-
ally towards the countries of the Arabian Peninsula
and Europe. Migraon may represent one response
likely to face up to the imbalance present on the
Southern Mediterranean labor markets. Neverthe-
less, the size of the employment challenge in the
MENA countries over the next 10 to 15 years is such
that there is no realisc scenario in which migraon
would be able to solve the problem. Migraon, on
the one hand enables transfers of income which
have played a fundamental role as a result of their
volume in the social stabilizaon up to the world
Figure 15. Doing Business indicators related to the dicules of
redundancies (index fom 0 to 100)
MENA
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Eastern Eurpe and
Central Asia
Latin America and
Caribbean
OECD
East Asia & Pacific
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Difficulties in lay-offs
Costs of lay-offs
Source : Angel-Urdinola and Arvo Kuddo, (2010), DoingBusiness 2010
Figure 16. Educaon level of migrants coming from the MENA
countries into the OECD (2000)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mor. Alg. Tun. Syr. Leb. Pal. Jord. Isr. Egy.
High (>12 years
of education)
Average (9-12
years of
education)
Low (<9 years of
education)
Source : Adams (2006)
-62-
economic crisis. The remiances from migrant
workers currently represent an essenal element
for the economies of the countries considered, for
their volume exceeds that of FDI and government
aid (Aita, 2008). On the other hand, even if the mi-
graon of the young people limits the pressure on
the labor market, the brain drain leads to the loss
of human capital which is harmful for the long term
development dynamics of the MENA countries. For
the whole of the MENA countries, brain drain re-
presents 9% of its graduate populaon while at the
world level the average is 5% (Blanc et al., 2007). Mi-
graon of graduates concerns mainly the countries
of the Middle East (Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon,
Syria) for which graduates from higher educaon
make up more than half of all migrants (Figure 16).
For the countries of the Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria
and Tunisia) the great majority of migrants has a low
level of educaon. However, these data cover the
year 2000 and would deserve to be re-actualized to
take account of the consequences in terms of migra-
on of the degradaon of the situaon of graduates
on the labor market. The movaon of candidates
for migraon is mainly a queson of economics. The
naonal surveys on the subject show clearly that
the main push factors are linked to integraon
into the labor market and increasingly large die-
rences in salary level (Marn, 2009). However, the
relavely high level of migraon introduces a de
facto selecon among candidates, the higher level
graduates are hence the most mobile at the interna-
onal level. The migraon demand from young peo-
ple in the MENA countries comes up against, on the
one hand, the restricve immigraon policies of the
EU countries and on the other hand the compeon
from immigrants from the Asian countries into the
oil producing countries of the Arabian Peninsula.
VI. Acve labor market policies for youth
The public authories, which have become aware
of the problem of the employment of young peo-
ple and especially university graduates, introdu-
ced from the beginning of the 2000s measures
of aid and support for their integraon. These
measures are a combinaon of several types of
program (BIT, 2010). Firstly, the governments
have introduced policies of subsidies for the em-
ployment of young people which, if they are well-
targeted, may enable young people to nd a place
on the labor market. This type of measure comes
up against the well-known problem of the wind-
fall eects for companies as well as the eects of
substuon between the targeted populaon and
the rest of the populaon. Furthermore, the jobs
created with this system run the risk of disappea-
ring with the end of the subsidy. Other public po-
licies try to favor occupaonal training of young
people to enable them to acquire an experience
in the business world. However, the training is
not enough to guarantee access to employment,
it sll has to create jobs. Governments have also
tried to improve the follow-up of the unemployed
to help them in their search for a job or even
develop public young person jobs for general
interest missions. Finally, policies of aid for the
creaon of businesses are likely to respond to
the economys needs for the creaon of jobs and
the expectaons of the young people in terms of
independence and freedom. In the MENA coun-
tries, the governments have tested these types of
public policy with limited success. The example of
Tunisia is a good illustraon of it.
Poor results of acve labor market policies
As in the majority of countries, Tunisia has adop-
ted a series of programs to limit the risks linked to
unemployment and smulate employment. The-
se acve programs for the labor market include:
placement services; subsidies for the cost of labor
(salaries and/or social contribuons); the training
programs and the employment-generang pro-
grams such as the nancing of small projects. In
Tunisia these programs consume nearly 1.5% of
GDP (Ben Halima et al. 2011). The programs in-
tended for graduates from higher educaon in-
clude notably Courses of Iniaon to Professional
Life (SIVP), the terms and condions of which
were revised in January 2009 so as to make them
-63-
more eecve and respond to the consequences
of the internaonal crisis on youth unemploy-
ment. These programs are intended for young
graduates from higher educaon. In this context,
the young trainees who are rst-me job-seekers
receive during their training course a monthly
indemnity provided by the State which varies
between 100 DT and 250 DT, plus social cover as
well as an extra indemnity which the companies
grant them. The course lasts one year renewable
once if necessary for the integraon of the trai-
nee. The companies which recruit trainees at the
end of their training course are exonerated from
social contribuons for one year. The joint report
of the World Bank and the Tunisian Ministry of
Employment provides some elements on the ef-
fecveness of the SIVPs (prior to the reform of
January 2009). Over the period 2004-2007, more
than one out of four graduates (27%) beneted at
least once from an SIVP contract. While the SIVP
concerns all types of diploma, out of the 10,200
SIVP contracts, almost all concern the holders of a
Masters degree (50% of the SIVPs) and qualied
technicians (42% of the SIVPs). As Table 6 underli-
nes, the eecveness of the integraon contracts
is quite relave. Compared to other diplomas, the
young people who had followed an SIVP have on
average a slightly lower unemployment rate (30%
against 36%) but the integraon rate with an unli-
mited contract job is less impressive (22% for SIVP
against 28% for other). If we add the windfall ef-
fects for the employers, which are always present
with policies of recruitment subsidies, the cost-
eecve rao of this measure would not seem to
be very favorable. A more in-depth econometric
study would enable this eecveness to be as-
sessed more precisely. The Tunisian government
has introduced other types of public policies such
as for example the 21-21 Fund, the aim of which is
to support young people (not solely graduates) in
the reconversion or the development of a project
such as the creaon of a business. These dierent
measures have not for the moment succeeded in
bucking the trend on the integraon of univer-
sity graduates, even if they have had some posi-
ve results. The demand for work, notably from
the private sector, addressed to them remains
highly insucient. Further, the acve employ-
ment policies target more parcularly graduates
and leave less place to young people without
skills, making their situaon yet more dicult.
Morocco has also adopted a series of programs
since the middle of the 90s to favor the employ-
ment of young people (complementary training,
re-organizaon of the Naonal Agency for the Pro-
moon of Employment and Competence, support
for the creaon of businesses) but these measu-
res have not met the expected success in terms
of the integraon of young people (Bardak et al.,
2006). In 2002, Jordan had started a vast program
of training with the help of the army, notably, but
Table 6. Situaon of university graduates with or without SIVP experience
All graduates Master graduates Qualied technicians
SIVP NON SIVP SIVP NON SIVP SIVP NON SIVP
Permanent contract
employee
22 28 23 29 18 19
Fixed term contract
employee
26 14 25 12 26 16
Others 14 6 12 6 15 9
Non employed 3 4 2 3 5 5
Unemployed 29 36 31 36 29 43
Inacvity 7 12 7 14 7 8
Total 27 63 100 100 100 100
Source: World Bank (2009). The table concerns the situaon in 2007 of university graduates who obtained their
diploma in 2004. Results of the survey among a sample of 4,763graduates
-64-
this program, lacking results, was abandoned at
the end of three years. De Gobbi and Nesporova
(2005) stressed that the acve employment po-
licies in Egypt did not have the success expected
as a result notably of the inappropriateness of
the training of the unemployed compared to the
needs of businesses, as well as a lack of access
to the sources of nancing for the promoters of
projects for the creaon of businesses. Access to
bank nancing for the promoters of projects is in
fact a major obstacle to economic acvity in the
MENA Countries. The World Bank survey among
banks from the MENA region throws light on the
fact that access to nancing for SMEs encounters
more restricons in the MENA Countries than in
the other emerging regions, with only 20% of SMES
beneng from a loan or a line of credit. The loans
to SMEs represent only 8 % of the total volume of
the loans granted by the banks in the region, the
objecve being to bring this rate to 20%, which
is the rate observed in the other regions of world
(World Bank, 2009). The nancing of SMEs is based
to a large extent on public banks. The World Bank
survey helped to idenfy the main factors which
hamper the granng of lines credit to SMEs. The
lack of transparency of the SMEs, the bad quality
of informaon about loans available and the lack
of protecon of the rights of creditors are the main
elements put forward. Hence, improving the inte-
graon of young people through the development
of SMEs also necessitates a policy aiming to impro-
ve the system of nancing the economy .
To resume, the acve employment policies in the
MENA countries generally suer from insucient
targeng, a dicult even paral implementaon, a
heavy independence on the nancing from external
partners such as the World Bank or the EU(Assaad
and Barsoum, 2007), and very limited access to the
credit market for SMEs in general and the young
project promoters in parcular. Finally, impact or
evaluaon studies of the acve policies are very
rare even non-existent making feedback and the
coordinaon of the dierent policies very dicult
and liming the eect of learning by doing.
VII. Conclusion and recommendaons
The need for a systemic approach
The issue of youth employment in MENA countries
is now an absolute priority for the next twenty
years. By then the pressure from young job-seekers
will be aenuated and the equilibrium reached at
the end of this period will be persistent. It is the-
refore urgent to put this issue at the heart of the
social contract and get a large consensus for that.
The above developments show perfectly well that
we are facing a systemic problem which concerns
listening to the expectaons of the youth, its par-
cipaon in the strategic choices and their repre-
sentaon in power-sharing. If educaon and trai-
ning are at the heart of the problem, many other
elements are concerned like the funconing of the
labor market, the creaon of businesses, bank -
nancing, the terms and condions of recruing in
public sector and the collecve dynamism of so-
ciety parcularly in its ability to create new values
(scienc, technological, cultural).
This global movement should be promoted and
controlled at all levels of decision-makers. It in-
volves an impetus at the highest level of the State
which should be result in a rejuvenaon of the lea-
ders and elected representaves (Mediterranean
sociees are sll marked by patriarchy), trade-os
at Prime Minister level which favor this target in
the structural policies and the implementaon of
large projects as well as systems for evaluang
results. Thus, especially the examinaon of large
projects, authorizaon for installaons, including
FDI, should systemacally include an assessment
of expected eects on youth employment. The mi-
nimum being that the Naonal Stascs Instutes
regularly undertake the necessary labor force sur-
veys, which is far from the case today.
Besides the necessary naonal impetus decen-
tralized procedures (regional and local) enabling
the territories to advance in line should be added.
It has to be said that current decisions to create
-65-
public jobs reserved for young people or tempo-
rary aided jobs, if they are understandable in the
short term to answer the demands of the Arabian
Spring, are by no means long-term soluons. Too
pronounced they get the risk of pung an exagge-
rated strain on the public budgets and especially of
avoiding the fundamental social contract revision
which was discussed above.
Changing relaons between educaon/training
and the labor market
As we have seen, in terms of employment, we
have, on the one hand, a labor supply with a rapi-
dly changing nature , it becomes more and more
skilled (hence, in Tunisia, among the new entrants
in the labor market the university graduates are
now the majority). On the other hand, the labor
demand seems to remain aached to the old sys-
tem of specializaon in unskilled work. From this
inadequacy stems high unemployment for young
people which has two parcularies with impor-
tant consequences: (i) It aects parcularly the
young graduates from higher educaon and the
no skilled drop outs (ii) it is long-lasng. These
two elements lead to a phenomenon of social
exclusion for some young people, even the most
highly educated for whom the queue to access a
job matching their skills and competences is very
long given the weak demand dynamics for skilled
workers.
This is an issue common to all countries, which
is more special in MENA Countries. Indeed, these
countries have already used most of their availa-
ble tools with limited success: development of
technical and occupaonal educaon, alternang
apprenceship, introducon of short term con-
tracts, University Instutes of Technology, modi-
caons to the orientaon systems, etc... The re-
sults have been limited, rstly because the means
available are low (the countries in the region
already have a high rate of educaon and training
expenses), on the other hand, because there is a
strong preference for the branches of human and
social sciences, which tradionally open the doors
to the entrance exams for public sector jobs. Note
that this choice of youth is raonal given the gap
in wages and status between the public and priva-
te sectors which play in favor of the public sector.
The soluon is therefore clearly on the labor de-
mand side which must evolve in the direcon of
a higher demand for skills, which implies that the
producve systems of MENA countries increase
their quality in value chains by increasing techno-
logical content and the quality of producons. In
addion, the creaon of business should be syste-
macally facilitated and encouraged, especially in
the acvies of the future (by seed funds, support
for innovaon, low interest loans), in the context
of total transparency.
Targeng two categories
The issue of youth employment therefore parti-
cularly concerns two publics that should be dif-
ferentiated: the public of young people without
training (drop-outs from the educational sys-
tem or non-participants) on the one hand, and
graduates on the other. All studies show that the
two extremes posed the most difficulties, the se-
condary school level which corresponds to me-
dium-skilled jobs are the least badly affected by
unemployment.
Four quesons should be dealt with:
A rst queson concerns these two groups. The
aim is to facilitate the penetraon of a skills- based
approach in addion to the diploma-based one
which is an approach focused on the mastery of a
set of knowledge validated by obtaining the ove-
rall average in a large number of subjects. It is ob-
viously a system which, while it may reinforce civic
identy (which was jused in the period of the
reconstrucon of a social identy), has the draw-
back of eliminang students who have one or two
highly developed competences but not the ability
to acquire the complete spectrum required. It is
both an explanaon of the large number of drop
-66-
outs and the diculty to provide some key com-
petences to bring graduates in social and human
science of the companys world.
A second issue concerns parcularly out of school
youth without diplomas (drop-ous) with an unem-
ployment rate that is very high and with very poor
work condions. One could imagine taking inspi-
raon from the funconing of the schools of the
second chance to adapt the concept to the needs
of Mediterranean countries. This school funcons
on three pillars: (i) obtaining a foundaon of basic
skills at school leaving age level, delivered largely
by computer and accredited (this fund of compe-
tence should be completed by a business manage-
ment package), (ii) alternang training course by
immersion in professional domains, (iii) social sup-
port to address the various students challenges
(health, accommodaon and others). The urban
area as well as the rural are concerned.
A third issue concerns more parcularly the gradua-
tes unemployment. Here, the following problemac
is concerned: orientaon towards the short track trai-
ning; development of apprenceship and alternang
with training; complements in terms of professional
skills that can be provided in all the Masters degrees,
in parcular in the human and social sciences (how
to read a balance sheet and an operang account,
wring a business plan, conducng an investment
plan, calculang the neutral point, minimal skills in
computer technology and in ICT). All Masters trai-
ning should be concerned because it is one of the
keys too develop the ability to create business that
requires not more than a couple of days training
and can easily be acquired by means of a computer
(business games, distance learning, etc...). In this res-
pect, it would be desirable to have a common oset
of core competencies in terms of the creaon and
management of business which could be provided at
the end of obligatory schooling and accredited by the
use of computer facilies. The competence approach
should also be chosen to dene the addional trai-
ning to be provided to the generalist one given the
new businesses which are developing. It has been es-
mated that 10% of new products appear each year
in internaonal trade that require as many changes
to exisng professions.
A fourth issue concerns the global educaonal
system quality and its measurement, issues which
are very weakly developed in the Southern Medi-
terranean and which require that MENA Countries
accept to submit to tests similar to the PISA type.
Notes:
[1]: In the text the acronym MENA stands for the
group of ten countries under study. Namely:
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Pales-
nian Territories, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey.
[2]: The OECD PISA survey covers in addion to
OECD countries, some partner countries inclu-
ding Tunisia and Jordan.
[3]: Among the ten countries studied, female par-
cipaon rate is greater than 25% only in Algeria
(37%) and in Israel (52%)
[4]: The unemployment rate menoned here
concerns the total populaon (rural + urban).
However, in MENA countries the weight of jobs
in the agricultural sector remains high. The ur-
ban unemployment rate is signicantly higher
than the unemployment rate in rural areas. For
example, in Morocco, the rural unemployment
rate is 4% while in urban areas it is 14% for an
average rate of 10% of the total populaon.
[5]: The data published by the INS for the year
2009 conrm this diagnosis: the unemployment
rate of the 15-19 yr olds is 33.6%, that of the 20-
24 yr olds 29;9% for a rate of unemployment of
13.3% at the level of the populaon.
[6]: Source: High Commission of the Plan Morocco
[7]: For example, Kabbani and Khotari (2005) de-
velop this argument on the basis of data going
back to the beginning of the 1990s concerning
the weight of the public sector in the economy
[8]: The Solow or producvity paradox reminds us
of the declaraon of the laer, We see compu-
ters everywhere except in the stascs of pro-
ducvity
-67-
[9]: We talk about declassicaon when a gra-
duate is recruited for a job beneath his level of
qualicaon. See OECD (2007) for an applicaon
in occupaonal integraon of immigrants in the
host countries
[10]: We talk about declassicaon when a gra-
duate is recruited for a job beneath his level of
qualicaon. See OECD (2007) for an applicaon
in occupaonal integraon of immigrants in the
host countries
[11]: This rao is however much weaker (5%) for
Morocco, Syria and Jordan and intermediate for
Algeria and Tunisia (10%)
-68-
-69- -69-
CHAPTER 4. SOME NEW INSIGHTS INTO TRADE
POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE EU AND ITS MPS
Introducon
Almost 50 years aer the conclusion of the rst
trade agreements between the EU and its Mediter-
ranean partners (MPs) and 15 years aer the im-
plementaon of the Barcelona agreement [1], the
eliminaon of taris has been almost completed
between MPs and the EU. This has made possible
to increase trade to some extent between these
two areas. Some authors argue that addional tra-
de gains can be expected through deeper integra-
on, especially through the reducon in Non Tari
Barriers (NTBs) both vercally, i.e. between the EU
and MPs and horizontally (across MPs)[2] .
However, in addion to regional trade negoaons,
there are several other channels through which
trade can be enhanced in the Euromed area. A rst
channel is related to addional trade cost reducon,
not only in terms of NTBs, but also in terms of infras-
tructure and logiscs performance. Secondly, factor
movements can also help increase trade, as expec-
ted by the new trade theory. It states that in an im-
perfect compeon framework, migraon and FDI
can be complementary to trade. Consequently, the
trade-migraon-FDI relaonship can be self-reinfor-
cing. Finally, instuonal factors, especially gover-
nance, are also expected to have signicant eects
on most key economic variables, including trade.
To sum up, recent analyses tend to show that tra-
de does not only depend on tradional variables
like openness, regional integraon and transport
costs. Consequently, the process of openness and
regional integraon must be connued and dee-
pened, but this process must also be complemen-
ted by addional policies which include the new
channels menoned above.
Moreover, the queson of social equity must be
central as a policy objecve for succeeding these va-
rious policies. In other words, the process of regional
integraon, openness and the development of the
channels menoned above must be accompanied
by appropriate social policies so that the economic
gains can be socially sustainable. In parcular, the
queson of income convergence both within and
across countries is becoming a central issue to be
dealt with. This can be achieved for example by ap-
propriate scal policies aimed at achieving a more
equal distribuon of the economic gains which are
derived by the various trade related policies.
This chapter deals with these trade issues by fo-
cusing on the trade potenal between the EU and
MPs. Trade potenal can be dened by the die-
rence between the observed trade between two
countries or areas and the trade which would be
expected if these countries behaved like the other
countries (the an-monde). If the observed trade
is below the expected one, this means that there is
a trade potenal between these two countries.
Regarding the Euro-Mediterranean area, the
exisng research studies generally conclude that
MPs export potenal toward the EU is signicant
but of limited magnitude. For example, Pridy
(2006) shows that MPs observed exports to the
EU are about 10-20% lower than exports expec-
ted (ed) by the model (depending on the eco-
nometric specicaon). Some excepons concern
Lebanon and Jordan, for which the export poten-
al is greater (about 30-50%). Some other studies
provide similar results. For instance, Yu-Feng and
Gohar (2010) show limited evidence of export po-
tenal, except concerning exports of agricultural
products. This research has also been extended to
the Gulf Cooperaon Council (GCC) or GAFTA. It
is shown that trade potenal between GCC coun-
tries on the one hand and the EU and the US on
the other hand is also limited (Boughanmi, 2008).
It is also shown that trade potenal across GAFTA
countries, though signicant, is also restricted,
especially when the exporng country is oil pro-
ducer (Abedini and Pridy, 2008). This is mainly
explained by the lack of complementarity in the
trade structure of GAFTA members.
-70- -70-
Hence, although the exisng literature provides
some insights into trade potenal between the EU
and MPs, the present chapter aims to go further
in this analysis by including several new contribu-
ons. First, it is based on a comparave analysis
which makes it possible to compare the MP-EU tra-
de potenal in the recent period (2000-2009) with
that corresponding to other trade groups, such as
NAFTA, MERCOSUR as well as ASEAN.
Second, it is based on new gravity models which
follow Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003) by ex-
plicitly including trade costs, i.e. taris, non tari
barriers (NTBs, in ad-valorem equivalents, AVEs)
but also logiscs performance indexes (LPIs) as a
measure of transport costs (World Bank, 2001). It
also includes factor movements, such as bilateral
migraon ows as well as bilateral FDI. Indeed, the
new trade theory generally states that in an imper-
fect compeon framework, internaonal trade
itself fails to achieve factor price equalizaon (FPE)
(Markusen (1983), Venables (1999)). As a result,
other factor movements such as labor or capital
ows are required to achieve Factor Proce Equa-
lizaon (FPE). Hence, modeling trade ows cannot
disregard migraon and FDI, which are explicitly
included in our model.
Governance is the nal addional key variable
which is also accounted for in this model. This
variable seems parcularly crucial in the present
context of riots and demonstraons in most MPs.
In this regard, a large set of polical indicators will
be tested (rule of law, corrupon, polical stability,
etc.) based on Kaufmann et al. (2010).
Basically, taking these addional variables into ac-
count is necessary for both theorecal and empi-
rical reasons. From a theorecal point of view, all
these variables are interconnected. For example,
a beer specicaon of trade costs (through ta-
ris, NTBs and logiscs) is necessary since all these
components directly aect trade. Similarly, the
variables corresponding to factor movement can-
not be disregarded in the trade equaon since the
trade theory states the existence of a relaonship
between trade, migraon and FDI. Finally, it is now
unbelievable to disregard the role of governance
in a trade model, since governance does not only
aect trade directly through transacon costs and
expectaons but also indirectly through factor mo-
vements.
From an empirical standpoint, taking into account
these addional variables makes it possible to re-
duce the bias due to omied variables which is
commonly found in the exisng research studies.
This bias may lead to underesmate exports ed
values and thus to overesmate trade potenal.
As a nal contribuon, the econometric modeling
relies on recent and specic esmators which are
designed to correct the most important biases
in the esmaon of export potenals, especially
omied variables, endogeneity or selecon issues.
The nal objecve is to calculate reliable values of
export potenal while explaining properly trade
paerns within the Euromed area.
The results are expected to have signicant policy
implicaons, concerning not only trade potenals
directly, but also through the sign and the magnitu-
de of the key variables in the model. In parcular,
the relaonship between trade ows on the one
hand and migraon and FDI on the other is of cru-
cial importance. In other words, do migraon ows
and FDI create addional trade or destroy exisng
trade? In addion, is the persistence of NTBs so
detrimental to trade? Does logiscs performance
signicantly maer for explaining trade in the
Euromed area? What is the impact of governance?
Are corrupon and the lack of economic freedom
actually trade reducing? If so, to what extent?
This chapter is organized in three secons. The
rst analyzes basic stylized facts concerning trade
between MPs and the EU in comparison with tho-
se in other Preferenal Trade Arrangements (PTAs)
such as NAFTA, MERCOSUR as well as ASEAN. The
second secon develops the methodology and
-71-
describes the results with regard to trade deter-
minants and trade potenals. All technical details
are le in the annex. The conclusion and the policy
implicaons are discussed in the last secon.
I. Selected stylized facts concerning trade between
MPs and its EU: A comparave analysis.
This secon focuses on selected trends and indica-
tors with regard to trade between MPs and the EU.
Since there is an extensive literature dedicated to de-
tailed trade paerns with regard to these countries
[3], we here concentrate on specic trends which can
give rst insights into the main topic of this study, i.e.
export potenal between MPs and the EU.
As a rst insight, Figure 1 shows that MPs account for
a limited share in world exports. However, this share
has slightly increased in the past decade, from 1.8%
to 2.4%. Moreover, this share, though much lower
than the other economic areas, such as ASEAN, is
comparable to MERCOSUR.
Figure 2 exhibits a breakdown by country. It shows
that among MP countries, Turkey is the country which
contributes the most to world exports (0.8% with a
clear increasing trend). The second contributors are
oil exporng countries (Algeria, Libya and Egypt) to-
gether with Israel (they account each for about 0.2-
0.4% of world trade). The other MP countries repre-
sent each less that 0.1% of world exports. However, in
this last group, some countries have slightly increased
their share in world exports, namely Tunisia, Jordan
and Lebanon.
Turning to MP exports to the EU, Figure 3 shows that
these countries sll account for a limited share in
world exports to the EU (3.5%). This means that within
the Euro-Mediterranean area, MPs exports to the
EU are sll limited compared to total exports to the
EU. Moreover, a comparison with other PTAs shows
that trade of MPs within the Euromed area is lower
than intra trade in the other regional areas, including
ASEAN, MERCOSUR and even intra-MP trade.
In spite of this apparent limited export performance
of MP countries toward the EU, Figure 3 shows that
MPs have progressively increased their export share
as a total of EU imports, i.e. from 2.7% in 2000 to
3.5% in 2009. In addion, the share of MP countries
in EU imports is greater than that in world imports,
as shown in Figure 1. This means that MP countries
exhibit a beer export performance toward the EU
that toward the rest of the world.`
A breakdown by country (Figure 4) provides addi-
onal details by showing that most MP countries
have increased their exports to the EU more than
the other countries. In parcular, Jordan, Turkey,
Lebanon and Tunisia have increased their exports
to the EU by more than 10% (annual average) and
Egypt by more than 20%, which is much greater
than the world average (8%).
To sum up, MP countries sll represent a limited
share in world exports. However, this share has
been slightly increasing in the past decade and
more importantly, this share is greater with re-
gard to the EU market. At this stage, it is dicult
Figure 1. Share of MPs and other PTAs in world exports (2000-29, %)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EU
NAFTA
ASEAN
MPs
MERCOSUR
Source : UnctadStat
Figure 2. Share of MPs in world exports: breakdown by country
(2000-2009, %)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey
Israel
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Tunisia
Morocco
Syria
Jordan
Lebanon
Palestine
Source : UnctadStat
-72-
to infer any conclusion about export potenal.
Indeed, accounng for a limited share in EU total
imports does not necessarily mean that there is a
huge export potenal between MPs and the EU,
since the magnitude of exports depends on many
variables which must be controlled for, namely
country size, distance, trade costs as well as many
other variables which will be selected and descri-
bed in the next secon.
Finally, Table 1 displays a set of general trade in-
dicators which highlight the following features.
First, MPs may be globally considered as open
economies, even if for some oil exporng coun-
tries, such as Algeria, Syria and Libya, the trade/
GDP rao is biased upward due to oil exports. This
rao is on average equal to 76.5% which is above
the world average. It is even greater than that re-
corded for NAFTA, the EU and MERCOSUR, thou-
gh it is lower than that in ASEAN. Small countries
like Tunisia and Jordan are parcularly exposed to
internaonal compeon because the trade/GDP
rao is greater than 100%. An implicaon of this
result is that for most MP countries, we cannot
expect the existence of trade potenal due to the
lack of openness. A similar remark also applied
to trade in services, which is higher in most MP
countries than in the other trading areas. This
is an addional indicaon of openness of these
countries.
The export growth indicator correlates the fin-
ding presented previously, i.e. the annual avera-
ge growth rate is substantial (6.6%) and greater
than that recorded for the EU, North America
and MERCOSUR (it is however lower than that
recorded in ASEAN).
The MPs export structure by product categories
is similar to that in MERCOSUR, except in terms of
high-tech exports, which only account for 4% of
MP exports whereas it is 12% in MERCOSUR and
even higher in the EU (13%) and ASEAN (25%).
The lack of innovaon in the producon and the
export processes is a major detrimental feature of
the export composion of MP countries. We will
get back to this issue in terms of policy implica-
ons in the conclusion.
Finally, MP countries also show some similaries with
MERCOSUR in terms of market concentraon and
diversicaon [4]. As a maer of fact, exports are
more concentrated in these two areas than in the
EU, North America and ASEAN. With regard to MPs,
this can be mainly explained by hyper specializaon
in oil products, agriculture or specic manufactured
products (texle-clothing). Similarly, the diversica-
on index, which measures the deviaon of
the country share from the world structure
in terms of product composion, is similar in
MPs and MERCOSUR but greater than in the
other trading areas. This means that in these
countries, trade strongly departs from world
average in terms of product composion
not only in oil exporng countries but also in
the other MP countries due to their specia-
lizaon and the lack of intra-industry trade.
The implicaons of the export structure by
products fall beyond the scope of this paper
Figure 4. % increase in MP countries exports to the EU (yearly ave-
rage 2000-2009)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%

Egypt

Jordan

Libya

Turkey

Lebanon

Tunisia

Algeria
WORLD
Morocco

Israel

Syria
Source :UnctadStat
Figure 3. Share of intra-trade in total exports of PTAs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EU (intra)
NAFTA (intra)
ASEAN (intra)
MERCOSUR
(intra)
MP (intra)
MP=>EU
Sources : UnctadStat
-73-
which focuses on overall export potenal. However,
this is a crical problem which leads some MP coun-
tries to strongly depend on specic products in terms
of export capacies. Besides, the lack of intra-industry
trade, which is expected to concentrate on processed
and innovang products (car industry, etc...) is also a
crucial issue for these countries for their inseron in
the world economy.
A nal set of gures are presented in Charts 5a
and 5b. They provide the current account balan-
ce of MPs (excluding Turkey) as well as the FDI.
They highlight the specicity of MPs with regard
to their external account. Overall, these countries
face a signicant and increasing decit in their
trade balance. This decit must be nanced by
the service balance (tourism), remiances of mi-
grants as well as by the current transfer balance.
This situaon makes it somemes hardly possible
to equilibrate the current account. As a maer of
fact, the overall current account balance was ne-
gave in 2010. In these condions, FDI inows are
parcularly required to balance the overall exter-
nal account.
Table 1: Selected Trade indicators for MP countries
Trade Export growth Fuel Exports Food
Exports
Man.
Exports
High tech
Exp.
Trade in
services
Number of Diversicaon Concentraon
(% of GDP) (av. 2000-09, %) (% of total) (% of total)
(% ot
total) (% of total) (% of GDP)
products
exported Index Index
Algeria 76,5 2,2 97,7 0,3 2,0 1,0 n.a. 106 0,799 0,558
Egypt 56,9 13,1 44,0 10,6 37,0 1,0 18,8 245 0,586 0,166
Israel 66,8 6,6 0,0 3,3 94,0 16,0 20,0 248 0,551 0,242
Jordan 108,5 4,8 0,6 16,6 73,0 1,0 33,2 210 0,576 0,167
Lebanon 69,2 9,9 0,5 16,3 71,0 0,0 90,3 210 0,629 0,217
Libya 94,8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 132 0,820 0,761
Morocco 68,1 5,8 2,0 9,3 65,0 9,0 21,1 212 0,694 0,151
Palesne n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 83 0,524 0,281
Syria 69,6 6,8 38,6 22,0 35,0 1,0 13,2 209 0,638 0,211
Tunisia 107,3 4,1 13,6 9,2 75,0 5,0 21,4 213 0,546 0,159
Turkey 47,7 6,4 4,0 10,8 80,0 2,0 8,2 259 0,508 0,083
MP (1) 76,5 6,6 22,3 10,9 59,0 4,0 28,0 193 0,625 0,272
EU 70,3 3,7 5,1 9,1 75,0 13,0 17,7 260 0,207 0,060
MERCOSUR 42,1 4,3 21,1 18,0 60,0 12,0 5,9 211 0,668 0,270
ASEAN 97,0 9,9 8,0 7,6 70,0 25,0 9,5 260 0,335 0,128
NAFTA 27,3 2,5 10,8 10,6 64,0 20,0 6,5 259 0,333 0,118
(1) Unweighted average
Sources: World Development Report 2011 (World Bank), UNCTAD Handbook of Stascs 2010, World Development Indicators
Figure 5a. 2010 Current account Balance and FDI inows: MP countries (excluding Turkey, bn US$)

-46,798
23,439
-14,499
33,85
-1,322
26,13
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1
Trade balance
Service Balance
Income balance
Current transfers balance
Current account
FDI inflows
Source : UnctadStat
-74-
Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) which make it pos-
sible to beer understand bilateral trade ows.
Basically, the model presented here explains bi-
lateral trade ows by the following variables. A
rst set of variables include the tradional gravity
variables:
The GDP of the exporng country. It is assu-
med that the greater this GDP, the greater the
size of this country and thus the greater its ca-
pacity to export.
The GDP of the imporng country. Indeed,
as this GDP increases, the demand for foreign
commodity also increases and thus there is a
rise in its imports (the exports of its partner
country).
The existence or not of a common language
between the two partners. It is expected that
if two countries speak the same language, they
are more likely to trade because transacon
and informaon costs are lower.
Past colonizaon is also expected to increase
bilateral trade, because of ghter relaonships
(economic, polical and cultural) between two
countries.
A second set of variables are linked to trade costs.
They include taris, NTBs as well as infrastructure,
such as logiscs. Factor movements are also expected
to inuence trade. Indeed, trade cannot be explained
independently from labour and capital movements
as stated in the tradional and new trade theory. The
later theory expects a complementary relaonship
The overall situaon remains fragile as MPs are
greatly dependent on tourism and remiances to
equilibrate their balance of payment. Bur they are
also dependent on external demand on goods, es-
pecially from the EU. In this regard, the 2008-2009
economic crisis in Europe contributed to increase
the trade decit in MPs given the weakness of EU
import demand.
These results highlight the interconnecon between
trade, migraon and FDI. This interconnecon will
be further invesgated in the next secon when
exploring the trade determinants and the role of
factor movement.
II. The trade potenal between MPs and the EU: A
comparave analysis
This secon is dedicated to the calculaon of trade po-
tenal through appropriate methodologies based on
new developments in gravity models. Methodological
issues are presented rst, leaving all technical details
in the Annex. Then, the results are presented in order
to quanfy the eect of each variable on trade. Finally,
a last sub-secon provides the calculaon of the trade
potenal between the EU and MPs as well as a com-
parison with NAFTA, MERCOSUR and ASEAN.
a. Methodological issues
The calculaon of the trade potenal relies on the eco-
nometric esmaon of a model which explains trade
ows with a set of appropriate variables. The starng
point is the new developments in gravity models by
Figure 5b. 2006-2008 Current account Balance and FDI inows: MP countries (excluding Turkey, bn US$)

-21,78
23,44
-5,16
33,10
30,10
36,83
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1
Trade balance
Service Balance
Income balance
Current transfers balance
Current account
Inward Direct Investment
Source : UnctadStat
-75-
Box 2 - Data and sources
Bilateral exports are measured in constant Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP) ; source: UNCTAD (Comtrade data-
base)
GDPs are measured in constant PPP; source: Cepii (Che-
lem database)
TARij is captured by the applied weighted average taris
of the imporng country j; source: world Bank (World De-
velopment Indicators). As a sensivity analysis, the Mar-
ket Access Overall Trade Restricveness Indexes (MAO-
TRI) captures the barriers faced by each exporter when
selling in other countries; source: Kee et al. (2008, 2009).
NTBs are proxied by ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) cal-
culated in Kee et al. (2009). The methodology is fully des-
cribed in the technical annex
LPIi is a larger proxy than transport costs; This indicator
is built from informaon gathered in a worldwide sur-
vey of the companies involved in logiscs services. Seven
areas are covered by this index, namely: eciency of the
clearance process by customs and other border agen-
cies, quality of transport and informaon technology in-
frastructure for logiscs, ease of arranging internaonal
shipments, competence of the local logiscs industry,
ability to trace and check internaonal shipments, do-
mesc logiscs costs as well as meliness of shipments
in reaching desnaon. The LPI is a weighted average of
these variables. It ranges between 1 (worst) to 5 (best);
source: World Bank (2011)
LANGij is a dummy variable which takes the value of 1
if a common language is spoken by at least 10% of the
populaon in each country pair (exporter and importer)
and 0 otherwise; source: Cepii Chelem
COLij reects colonial relaonships over a long period
of me with substanal parcipaon in the colonized
countrys governance. This variable is equal to 1 in case
of colonial links and 0 otherwise. It accounts for cultural
and historical relaonships which are expected to in-
crease trade ows between some EU countries and Me-
diterranean countries. Source: Cepii (Chelem database).
REGij (Regional integraon) is proxied by a bilateral dum-
my. It takes the value of 1 if a country pair belongs to the
same regional area and 0 otherwise. As a result, a posive
relaonship is expected between this proxy and exports
because as countries belong to a regional area, trade is
expected to increase; source: WTO (RTA database)
MIGijt is measured by the bilateral migrant stock in
country i originang from country j; as a sensivity ana-
Box 1 - The model specicaon
The following equaon has been esmated:
Where Xijt denotes exports from country i to country j
at year t. GDPit and GDPjt respecvely reect GDP in
country i and j. Trade costs are captured by three dis-
nct variables: bilateral taris charged in country j to
products originang from country i; NTBs, in ad-valorem
equivalent, applied in country j; Transport costs, which
can be captured by logiscs performance indexes (LPI).
LANGij captures the existence of a common language
between the two partner countries. REGij and COLij re-
late to regional integraon and colonial links, respec-
vely; MIGij and FDIij correspond to factor movement, i.e.
bilateral migraon and FDI. SERVij corresponds to bilate-
ral trade in services. Finally, POLi reects the quality of
polical factors in the exporng country. The equaon
also includes country and me specic eects which are
aimed at capturing the omied variables and accounng
for country and me heterogeneity.
The equaon is esmated over the recent period (2000-
2009) for a matrix of 67 countries, of which: the EU-27
countries, nine MPs (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey,
Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Israel), NAFTA and
MERCOSUR (including Chile), the ASEAN+4 group, i.e.
ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea, India, as well as Gulf coun-
tries, Australia, Norway, Switzerland and South Africa.
These 67 countries account for more than 80% of world
trade. This is a reasonable basis for the creaon of the
an-monde which will be used for the calculaon of tra-
de potenals. Overall, taking into account the bilateral
country dimension as well as the me period, the total
number of observaons amounts to 44,890.
As described in details in the Appendix, several esma-
tors have been used to esmate the equaon. These are
Hausman and Taylor, the two step Heckman procedure
as well as ABB for the dynamic model. The esmators are
also controlled for cross-seconal heteroskedasccity
and serial correlaon of the error term by using respec-
vely the Huber-White Sandwich esmator and the AR1
Cocrane-Orcu transformaon.
-76-
between trade on the one hand and factor movement
of the others. Trade in services is also added in the -
nal specicaon, as trade in goods is expected to be
complemented by trade in services (e.g. transport ser-
vices are necessary for trading goods).
As last crucial variable, polical factors are also expec-
ted to play a signicant role in internaonal trade. In
parcular, the lack of democracy is suspected to res-
train trade ows as well as growth in these countries.
In this regard, the recent polical events in MP coun-
tries provide a good opportunity to test the impact
of these polical factors on trade. Interesngly, the
recent literature has made considerable progress in
the measurement of polical issues and governance,
especially with the World Governance Indicators da-
tabase (Kaufmann et al., 2010). This makes it possible
to measure three aspects of governance: the process
by which governments are selected, monitored and
replaced; the capacity of the government to eec-
vely formulate and implement sound policies and the
respect of cizens.
Finally, the gravity model can also include a dynamic
component. In other words, current exports also de-
pend on past exports. This dynamic feature has its
own theorecal juscaon, based on the existence of
sunk costs Indeed, as rms must face signicant sunk
costs when entering the export market, they must rst
ensure that they will be able to amorze these costs
(Baldwin and Krugman (1989)). As a result, a rm
which starts exporng is likely to go on exporng in the
coming years. This is why the level of current exports
is partly explained by the past level of exports. Details
about the model specicaon, data and sources are
presented in Box 1 and Box 2 whereas all econome-
tric consideraons are le out in the Appendix. Once
the esmaon of the model is properly implemented,
the calculaon of export potenals (especially MPs
export potenal with regard to the EU) can be carried
out from the esmaon of the residuals of the model
(refer to the detailed descripon provided in Box 3).
As already explained in the introducon, trade po-
lysis, it is measured both in value and as a percentage of
the exporng countrys populaon; source: World Bank
(Bilateral Migraon and Remiances 2010)
FDIij is captured by several proxies: inward and outward bi-
lateral stock or flows (in value and as a percentage of GDP);
sources: World Bank (World Development Indicators); UNC-
TAD (Handbook of Statistics and World Investment Report.
SERVij is measured by trade in services (source: UNCTAD)
POLij is captured by several alternave proxies: voice
and accountability, which measures to what extent ci-
zens are able to parcipate in selecng their govern-
ment, polical stability and the absence of violence and
terrorism, government eecveness, regulatory quality,
rule of law as well as the control of corrupon (for more
details, refer to Kaufman et al. (2010)).
Box 3 - The calculation of export potentials
The choice between the in-sample or out-of sample predic-
on depends on several factors. First, Egger (2002) argues
that the out-of-sample approach may avoid a misleading
interpretaon of the residuals. Second, if the countries con-
sidered have not fully achieved is their integraon into the
world economy (countries in transion), the out-of-sample
predicon seems more appropriate, as it makes it possible
to calculate what these countries exports would be if they
behaved like the countries which are fully integrated into
the world economy. Given these consideraons, we will use
the out-sample methodology. As a sensivity analysis, the
in-sample method has also been carried out and it proved to
provide very close results.
One important issue is the choice between the stac or dyna-
mic specicaon regarding the calculaon of trade poten-
als. Indeed, although the advantage of the dynamic equaon
is to account for past inera in trade ows, one drawback is
that it tends to even out both levels and variaons of trade
potenal for a parcular country, as well as dierences in
trade potenal between countries. In the present study, the
nal results present the calculaon of trade potenal as the
rao between actual and ed exports using the HT es-
mator (stac), so as to provide greater dierences across
countries. This rao indicates how much observed exports
dier from ed exports assuming that the countries consi-
dered behave like the other countries in the sample. Hence,
if calculaons show that the MPs observed exports to the
EU countries are below their potenal level, this only means
that the MPs export less to the EU than they should to, once
all the trade determinants have been considered.
-77-
tenal can be dened by the dierence between the
observed trade between two countries or areas and
the trade which would be expected if these countries
behaved like the other countries (the an-monde). If
the observed trade is below the expected one, this
means that there is a trade potenal between these
two countries.
b. The results: What are the main trade determinants ?
Table 2 shows the results for one esmator, i.e. Haus-
man and Taylor. All detailed results are presented in
the Appendix. One striking feature in Table 1 is that
the parameter esmates are almost all signicant at
the 1%-level and all show the expected sign. For ins-
tance, the tradional gravity variables, such as GDP,
common language, colony and regional agreements
are all posive, as expected previously. In addion,
the trade costs variables are also all signicant: Ta-
ris and NTBs exhibit a negave sign whereas logis-
cs performance shows a posive parameter es-
mate. These variables are more relevant than the
tradional distance variable, which is too general as
a measure of trade costs.
Factor movements are also greatly signicant will a
posive parameter esmates. This means that FDI
and migraon are complementary with trade. This is
expected by the new trade theory which states that
trade of goods cannot ensure factor price equaliza-
on (FPE). It must be complemented by capital and
human movements. This result is of parcular im-
portance since it shows that FDI and migraon are
both trade-creang. The same remark also applies
to trade in services, which is complementary with
trade of goods.
Governance, measured here rst by the rule of law,
is also posive and signicant at the 1%-level. This
means that the quality of instuons and polical fac-
tors do play a signicant role in the creaon of trade.
To go further in the analysis, Table 3 displays a sen-
sivity analysis which takes alternave proxies for
regional agreement, trade costs, governance and
FDI (in bold characters). Starng with regional inte-
graon, the breakdown into the various preferen-
al trading areas (PTAs) shows that they are all trade
creang. However, the parameter esmate for the
Euromed agreement is of lower magnitude than
those corresponding to the other parameters. This
suggests that the Barcelona process has been less
trade creang than the other regional agreements
considered in this area. This result is not surprising
since the regional integraon process is not com-
pleted in the Euromed area. In parcular, during
the period considered (2000-2009), MP countries
did not complete their tari removal with regard to
the products originang from the EU. In addion,
the persistence of NTBs, the lack of market access
into the EU for agricultural products originang
from MP countries, the lack of integraon in terms
of services and FDI, etc... contribute to explain that
the trade creaon of the Barcelona agreement,
although posive, is limited (see Pridy, 2010a for
addional details). However, this does not mean
that the trade potenal between MP countries and
the EU is more important than in the other areas,
since it does not only depend on the eects of re-
gional agreements but also on all the other trade
determinants. This will be checked later on, when
calculang trade potenals between the EU and
MP countries.
Addional sensivity analysis concerns trade costs. In
this regard, the tradional distance variable has been
tested. It is unsurprisingly negave and signicant.
Another test takes the Market Access Overall Trade
Restricveness Index (MAOTRI), which captures taris
and NTBs faced by each exporter when selling to other
countries (Kee et al. 2008 and 2009). This variable is
negave and very signicant. Finally, we provide a
breakdown of the logiscs performance index into its
various components, i.e. customs eciency, quality of
infrastructures, eciency in arranging internaonal
shipment, competence of the local logiscs industry,
ability to track shipments as well as meliness of shi-
pment. All these components are very signicant in
explaining bilateral exports. They stress the key impact
of the various logiscs aspects in the trade creaon
-78-
process. This has important policy implicaons for MP
countries which generally exhibit poor logiscs e-
ciency compared with most other emerging or develo-
ped countries (refer to secon 3 for policy discussion).
In the same way, addional tests various governance
indicators. It includes voices which measures to
what extent cizens are able to parcipate in selecng
their government, polical stability (and the absence
of violence and terrorism), government eecveness,
regulatory quality, rule of law as well as the control of
corrupon (for more details, refer to Kaufman et al.
(2010)). Interesngly, all these variables are signicant
and the 1% level. This means that the quality of the
governance is a key factor in the trade creaon pro-
cess. Again, the poor quality of governance indicators
in MP countries has major implicaon on trade. The
corresponding policy implicaons will be further in-
vesgated later on. Some other tests provide other
measurement of FDI, in terms of stocks or ows or in
terms of value or as a percentage of GDP. Parameter
esmates are generally greatly signicant whatever
the proxy. The only excepon id FDI stocks in US dol-
lars, which are signicant at 10% only.
To sum up, the esmaon results described in this
secon show that bilateral trade cannot be only ex-
plained by the tradional gravity equaon which
Table 2: Esmaon results of trade determinants
TRADITIONAL VARIABLES:
GDP reporter 0.8186***
GDP partner 0.7719***
common language 0.3356***
colony 0.5165***
TRADE COSTS:
taris -0.2624***
NTBs -0.0396***
logiscs performance 2.7629***
FACTOR MOVEMENT:
migraon 0.2744***
FDI stocks 0.0274***
services 0.1778***
REGIONAL INTEGRATION:
regional agreements 1.7549***
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES:
Governance: rule of law 0.2025***
OTHER:
Intercept -31.0560***
*** signicant at 1% level; ** signicant at 5% level;
* signicant at 10% level
Table 3: Sensivity analysis
TRADE COSTS
taris -0.2488***
NTBs -0.0444***
Distance -0.0001***
logiscs: all 2.3451***
logiscs: customs 0.6831***
logiscs: infrastructure 0.5673***
logiscs: shipment 0.6216***
logiscs: competence 0.6388***
logiscs: track 0.7677***
logiscs: meliness 0.1496***
MAOTRI -5.7572***
FACTOR MOVEMENTS:
migraon 0.2566***
FDI: stocks (%GDP) 0.0302***
FDI: stocks (US$) 0.0030*
FDI: ows (%GDP) 0.0496***
FDI: ows (US$) 0.0551***
services 0.2654***
REGIONAL INTEGRATION:
regional agreements: All -
regional agreements: EU 2.1510***
regional agreements: Euromed 0.3696***
regional agreements: Naa 0.9095***
regional agreements: Mercosur 3.0979***
regional agreements: Asean 1.9566***
regional agreements: Gaa 2.4279***
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS:
Governance: rule of law 0.1393***
Governance: polical stability 0.5224***
Governance: government eecveness 0.6299***
Governance: regulatory quality 0.5059***
Governance: voice 0.1929***
Governance: control of corrupon 0.2072***
TRADITIONAL VARIABLES:
GDP reporter 0.7750***
GDP partner 0.7937***
common language 0.2620***
colony 0.7125***
Intercept -30.6389***
Adjusted R-squared 0.7536
*** signicant at 1% level; ** signicant at 5% level; *
signicant at 10% level
-79-
includes GDP, distance, language and regional inte-
graon. Three sets of new variables are also of cru-
cial importance, namely trade costs (including NTBs
and logiscs), factor movement (migraon and FDI)
as well as governance. Disregarding these variables
when calculang trade potenal may lead to a bias
due to omied variables. In this case, the residuals
of the model would include the eects of these va-
riables and trade potenal could be overesmated.
Conversely, by explicitly taking the new variables
into account, it is expected that ed exports beer
match observed exports. Thus, trade potenal may
not be as signicant as in tradional studies.
c. The calculaon of trade potenal
Table 4 exhibits the observed/ed export rao
of MPs with regard to the EU. When this rao is
below one, this means that observed exports have
not reached the level which is expected by the eco-
nometric model. Consequently, there is an export
potenal. Conversely, if the rao is equal or greater
than one, there is no more export potenal availa-
ble. Exporng countries are presented in line whe-
reas imporng countries are presented in column.
The last line and the last columns provides country
average for exporters and importers.
Overall, the export rao is very close to 1. For
example, the average MP exports to the EU is
equal to 1.007 mes the expected exports. Hence,
MPs exports to the EU are on average exactly equal
to the exports predicted by the model. This result
slightly diers from that found in some exisng stu-
dies which shows a small export potenal (Pridy
(2006), Yu-Feng and Gohar (2010)). One reason
is related to the considered me period, which is
the most recent in the present study. This suggests
that MP countries have reached their expected
export levels vis--vis the EU in recent years. Most
Table 4: The export potenal of MPs with regard to the EU (observed/ed exports rao)
impoter\exporters Algeria Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Morocco Syria Tunisia Turkey MP average
Austria 0,744 0,852 0,997 1,000 0,808 1,072 1,111 1,004 1,000 0,954
Belgium 1,172 1,088 1,184 1,068 1,023 1,090 1,060 1,117 1,035 1,093
Cyprus 1,146 1,157 1,296 1,098 1,150 0,993 1,084 1,150 1,149 1,136
Czech Rep. 0,665 0,971 1,084 0,899 0,890 1,031 1,012 0,971 1,090 0,957
Denmark 0,974 0,930 1,047 0,938 0,868 0,907 0,813 0,992 1,034 0,945
Finland 0,999 0,967 1,064 0,950 0,810 0,991 0,789 0,838 1,018 0,936
France 1,061 1,007 1,033 0,908 0,893 1,049 1,061 1,084 1,011 1,012
Germany 0,998 0,970 1,033 0,891 0,875 1,011 1,097 1,081 1,004 0,995
Greece 1,165 1,058 1,074 0,937 1,022 1,107 1,072 1,056 1,058 1,061
Hungary 0,683 0,933 1,068 1,069 0,766 0,945 0,882 0,979 1,076 0,933
Ireland 0,736 0,972 1,023 0,899 0,885 1,052 0,680 1,019 1,067 0,926
Italy 1,205 1,060 1,067 1,019 0,939 1,042 1,137 1,144 1,059 1,075
Lithuania 1,009 1,021 1,100 0,927 0,796 0,999 0,761 0,874 1,121 0,956
Luxembourg 1,046 0,792 1,052 0,792 0,760 1,035 1,013 1,036 1,021 0,950
Netherlands 1,250 1,103 1,118 1,102 0,952 1,066 1,084 1,125 1,011 1,090
Poland 1,080 0,943 1,056 1,031 0,832 1,104 0,998 1,084 1,014 1,016
Portugal 0,770 0,968 1,050 0,978 0,832 1,124 1,033 1,058 1,077 0,988
Romania 1,298 0,983 1,037 1,032 0,966 1,056 0,895 1,027 1,136 1,048
Slovakia 0,899 0,999 0,990 1,052 0,687 1,156 0,669 1,126 1,077 0,962
Spain 1,202 1,091 1,080 1,027 0,972 1,112 1,110 1,153 1,023 1,086
Sweden 1,102 0,918 1,033 0,875 0,910 0,956 0,812 1,038 1,014 0,962
Switzerland 1,041 0,927 1,142 1,150 1,116 1,099 0,776 1,146 1,070 1,052
United Kingdom 1,114 0,983 0,997 0,934 0,935 1,073 1,026 1,112 1,036 1,023
EU average 1,016 0,987 1,071 0,982 0,899 1,047 0,955 1,053 1,052 1,007
-80-
importantly, the main reason which explains this
dierence is the econometric specicaon which
includes a larger number of variables, especially
trade costs, factor movements and governance. In
parcular, the signicant migraon and FDI ows
(or stocks) contribute to increase MPs exports to
the EU. Disregarding these variable would lead to
a bias related to omied variables which in turn
would increase the residuals in the model and thus
show arcial export potenal. In other words,
migraons, FDI and services are signicantly trade
creang and thus contribute to explain why export
potenal is not signicant.
There are however slight dierences across coun-
tries. For example, Table 3 shows that there is a
small export potenal concerning Mashrek coun-
tries, especially Lebanon and Syria. These coun-
tries are tradionally less trade-oriented toward
Europe. Conversely, there is no more potenal for
Maghreb countries and Turkey, which show a rao
greater than one, due to more trade openness and
integraon vis--vis the EU.
There are also dierences across country pairs. For
example, the rst column of Table 1 shows that
the observed/expected export rao is much above
1 between Algeria on the one hand and Belgium,
France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy on the
other. This means that Algerian exports to these
countries are greater than expected. This can be
explained by the role of migraon from Algeria in
these countries.
From an import side, there is a small trade poten-
al with Eastern and Northern EU countries whe-
reas there is no more potenal with the other EU
countries (especially Southern countries). In spite
of these small geographical dierences, the ma-
jor feature of Table 3 is that MPs export potenal
with the EU is insignicant. This result has impor-
tant policy implicaons which will be discussed in
the next secon.
Tables 5, 6 and 7 provide and interesng compa-
rison with other geographical areas. Interesn-
Table 5: The export potenal in the NAFTA (observed/ed exports)
importer\exporter Mexico USA Canada NAFTA aver.
Mexico 0,996 0,994 0,995
USA 0,997 1,005 1,000
Canada 1,026 0,999 1,013
NAFTA average 1,011 0,998 1,000 1,003
Table 7: The export potenal in the ASEAN (observed/ed exports)
importer\
exporter
Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines
Rep. of
Korea
Singapore Thailand Viet Nam
ASEAN
aver.
Cambodia 0,993 0,901 1,074 0,924 1,081 0,940 1,017 1,130 1,104 1,096 1,026
China 0,849 0,897 0,982 0,963 0,974 0,985 1,005 0,984 0,990 1,002 0,963
India 0,827 0,947 0,998 0,888 1,006 0,839 0,945 0,979 0,959 0,924 0,931
Indonesia 0,837 0,916 0,885 0,917 1,013 0,937 0,953 1,079 0,990 0,970 0,950
Japan 0,914 0,951 0,870 1,036 1,031 1,017 0,936 1,009 1,016 1,045 0,983
Malaysia 0,974 0,965 0,958 1,091 0,996 1,078 1,013 1,129 1,105 1,107 1,042
Philippines 0,886 0,961 0,878 1,054 0,989 1,079 1,022 1,066 1,073 1,122 1,013
Rep. of Korea 0,922 0,952 0,879 0,998 0,922 0,997 1,001 1,006 0,952 0,984 0,962
Singapore 1,082 0,942 0,939 1,085 0,984 1,088 1,010 1,024 1,067 1,080 1,030
Thailand 0,956 0,947 0,934 1,056 1,014 1,110 1,057 1,006 1,113 1,075 1,027
Viet Nam 0,966 0,955 0,922 1,055 0,965 1,049 0,988 1,023 1,053 1,012 0,999
ASEAN average 0,921 0,953 0,906 1,043 0,956 1,043 0,985 0,994 1,055 1,027 1,041 0,993
Table 6: The export potenal in the MERCOSUR (observed/ed exports)
importer\
exporter Argenna Brazil Chile Paraguay Uruguay MERCOSUR
Argenna 0,998 0,922 1,022 0,991 0,983
Brazil 1,002 0,980 1,010 1,009 1,000
Chile 0,986 0,964 1,071 0,980 1,000
Paraguay 1,019 1,003 0,970 1,083 1,019
Uruguay 0,988 0,977 0,963 1,236 1,041
MERCOSUR
average 0,999 0,985 0,959 1,085 1,016 1,009
-81-
gly, the conclusion is idencal to
the previous one, i.e. there is no
further export potenal within the
other PTAs, namely NAFTA, MER-
COSUR and ASEAN, despite small
potenals for selected bilateral
ows. This means that MP coun-
tries exports toward the EU are not
dierent from those on the other
PTAs. In other words, there is no
specicity of trade relaonships
between MPs and the EU relave
to the other PTAs.
III. Conclusion and policy implicaons
The main result of this study is that MPs have reached
their export potenal with the EU. In other words, the
current export level from MPs to the EU is just equal
to the level predicted by the model.
It has also been shown that there is no specicity of the
MP-EU trade potenal in comparison with the other
main PTAs (NAFTA, MERCOSUR and ASEAN) which
have also reached their trade potenal. This result is
based on an econometric specicaon which takes
into account some new explanatory variables which
are generally omied in the previous studies. These
include trade costs (taris, NTBs and logiscs), factor
movement (migraon and FDI) as well as governance.
The policy implicaons of the results are the following.
First, the fact that MP countries have reached their
export potenal just means that MP exports to the EU
are at a normal level compared to the other trading
areas in the world. However, this does not mean that
exports cannot increase in the coming years. This can
be achieved by the following tools which can be im-
plemented to increase MPs export performance:
Progressing in reducing trade costs, espe-
cially NTBs
Recent research in this area tends to show that NTBs
are very signicant in MENA countries. As an illustra-
on, Figure 6 shows that the average equivalent (AVE)
of NTBs amounts to about 40% in Algeria, Egypt and
Morocco. This is very much higher than in many other
countries. In this regard, the econometric model pre-
sented previously clearly showed that the presence
of NTBs is trade-reducing. Consequently, it seems that
MENA country could signicantly increase their trade
by reducing NTBs. This is not to say that NTBs must
be completely removed, since some of them may be
useful for the protecon of specic consumers or in-
dustries. However, a downward move toward world
average would help creang trade [5].
Improving logiscs performance toward EU
standards
The recent World Bank study on logiscs performan-
ce reveals that MENA countries are far away from in-
ternaonal standards in this area. As a maer of fact,
Figure 7 exhibits the country ranking in the euro-me-
diterranean area. It is striking to observe that over a
total of 155 countries, there is a huge gap between
on the one hand EU countries, which are amongst the
most performant in the world, and MENA countries
on the other hand which are generally much below
the world average, especially Libya and Algeria which
are at the boom of the list.
Some countries have recently made real eorts. In
parcular, by developing Tanger Mditerrane
with accompanying road and other infrastructure
developments, Morocco should signicantly goes
up in the list in terms of country ranking. However,
Figure 6. NTBs in MP countries: a comparison with selected other countries
(average in tari equivalent, %)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Czech Rep.
Slovakia
Canada
Indonesia
Norway
Hungary Thailand
Turkey
Lithuania
ChinaLatvia
Chile
Australia
Argentina
Japan
Lebanon
Tunisia
EU-15
India
Paraguay
Brazil
Mexico
Jordan
Malaysia Morocco
Egypt
Algeria
Source : Kee et al.(2009)
-82-
similar eorts should be made in other countries in
order to increase the eciency and the compe-
veness of their trade. For these countries, as sugges-
ted by Figure 8, parcular eorts should be made
toward improvement of the eciency of the clea-
rance process regarding customs (and other border
agencies), the quality of transport and IT infrastruc-
ture for logiscs, the eciency in tracing and trac-
king internaonal shipments as well as the compe-
tence of the local logiscs industries. These eorts
are expected to provide signicant trade gains, since
1% increase in the LPI leads to 2.76% in exports, as
shown by the econometric results in Table 2.
Improving the governance
According to Kaufman et al. (2010), which have
proposed several indexes for governance, MENA
countries are generally well below the world ave-
rage. In this regard, Figure 9 displays the value
of the various governance indicators in MENA
countries, in comparison with the areas already
considered in this study (EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR,
AESAN). It is striking to observe that most MENA
countries show an average below 0, which reect
a poor performance in the governance process,
especially in Syria, Algeria, Lebanon, but also
Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to a lesser extent.
The recent riots observed in these countries are ob-
viously related to the poor quality in governance. Be-
sides that, governance has a signicant impact on the
economy, especially trade as shown previously. As a
maer of fact, Table 1 and 2 clearly showed that an
increase in any governance indicator leads to a signi-
cant trade increase. According to Figure 9, signicant
eorts should be made concerning especially: i) voi-
ce, which measures to what extent cizens are able
to parcipate in selecng their government (Syria,
Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, but also Jordan and Morocco);
ii) polical stability (Lebanon, Israel, Algeria, but also
Turkey and Egypt); iii) the control of corrupon (Syria,
Lebanon, etc...); iv) the rule of law, government eec-
veness and the regulatory quality should also be im-
proved, parcularly in Algeria, Syria and Lebanon.
The role of factor movement in the trade
creaon process
One original aspect of the present study is the in-
clusion of factor movements as trade determinants.
As explained in the previous secon, considering a
world in imperfect compeon leads to the comple-
mentarity between trade and factor movement, as
trade itself cannot equalize factor prices. The pre-
sent study validates this theorecal assumpon by
clearly accepng the complementarity relaonship
between trade and migraon. For example, it has
Figure 8. Logiscs Performance Index (breakdown by categories)
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Algeria Morocco Egypt Jordan Syria Tunisia Turkey Lebanon Israel
Customs
Infrastruct.
Shipments
Competence
Tracking
Timeliness
Average LPI
Source: World Bank (2011); *year 2007 concerning Morocco
Figure 9. Indicators of governance
-2,00 -1,50 -1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50
Israel
World Average
Jordan
Turkey
Tunisia
Morocco
Egypt
Lebanon
Algeria
Syria
Average
corruption
rule of law
quality
effectiven.
stability
voice
Source: from Kaufman et al. (2010)
Figure 7. Country ranking for the Logiscs Performance Index
(rank 2010* over 155 countries)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Belgium
Ireland Finland
Denmark
France Austria
Italy
Spain
Czech Republic
Poland
Israel
Lebanon Portugal
Latvia
Slovak Republic
Turkey
Estonia
Lithuania
Cyprus
Hungary
Greece
Slovenia Romania
Tunisia
Bulgaria
Malta
Syrian Arab
Jordan
Egypt. Arab
Morocco*
Algeria
Libya
Source: World Bank (2011); *year 2007 concerning Morocco
-83-
been shown that 1% outward migraon
stock leads to an increase in exports by
about 0.2%. This means that MENA coun-
tries, which have exported people to the
EU have consequently created exports. As
a result, migraon can be viewed as a tool
to create exports from MPs to the EU. This
result is not new in the literature but it is
clearly highlighted in the present study for
the EU-MP relaonships [6].In the same
way, our model showed that 1% increase
in FDI outward stocks (as a percentage of
GDP) leads to 0.03% increase in exports. As
a result, FDI can be seen as a tool for EU
countries to create exports to MENA countries. In
other words, it seems that the trade-migraon-FDI
relaonship is self-reinforcing. This means that if the
EU and MENA countries have a common objecve
which is to develop trade relaonships, then appro-
priate migraon and FDI policies can contribute to
achieve this objecve.
In sum, the remarks developed above show that tra-
de policy (regional integraon based on taris and
NTB policy) cannot no longer be seen as the only
tools designed at developing trade relaonships
between two areas. Indeed, as shown previously,
trade can be developed by many other tools or po-
licies involving especially logiscs performance, FDI,
migraon and governance.
Rethinking the EU-MP partnership towards new
challenges: educaon, research, innovaon and
environment
In addion, the EU and MP countries can also re-
think their partnership toward new tools that can
also create trade, job and growth in the future, i.e.
educaon, research and environment.
Educaon and research is the rst major challen-
ge. Indeed, this makes it possible to upgrade the
average skill levels in an economy, which in turn
can boost the innovaon process. In this regard,
there is an increasing literature which shows the
link between educaon-research-innovaon on
the one hand and trade-growth-employment on
the other (Amable, 2000; Milanovic, 2006; Pridy,
2010b). In spite of real eorts recently undertaken
in some MENA countries, the gap is sll large with
emerging or developed countries, especially the
EU in terms of educaon and research, as shown
in Figure 10.
As a nal point, environment is about to become
a central issue not only at worldwide level, but
also for MENA countries specically. For example,
the problems of wastes (treatment and recycling),
de-polluon (grounds, air and sea) as well as the
development of clean energies (solar, wind, etc.)
are becoming crical issues for sustainable deve-
lopment in MENA countries. In this regard, there
is a huge work to be made in this area. From an
economic point of view, dealing with environmen-
tal aspects can directly create a lot of jobs, while
creang trade and growth in MENA countries. This
win-win approach (in terms of environment and
economics) is a central policy issue which must be
dealt with by policymakers very soon.
Notes
1: The rst Associaon Agreements were signed in
the 60s with Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia. They
granted tari preferences to imports origina-
ng from these countries toward the EC. These
agreements have been progressively extended
Figure 10. R&D in the Euromed area (as a % of GDP, last year available)
R&D (% of GDP, last year available)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Israel
Sweden
Finland
Germany
Denmark
Austria
France
Belgium
Netherlands
United
Luxembourg
Ireland
Spain
Tunisia
Italy
Portugal
Morocco
Turkey
Greece
Jordan
Syria
Egypt
Algeria
Source: UNCTAD(2010))
-84-
to all MPs, i.e. Maghreb and Mashrek countries
and the Barcelona process paved the way for
the implementaon of a free trade area (FTA)
between the EU and its MPs
2: For a recent survey about the eects of the EU-
MP trade integraon, refer to Pridy (2010a).
3 : See for instance many FEMISE researches and
more specically Gallal and Reiers (2010)
4: For a complete denion of these indicators, re-
fer to UNCTAD, Handbook of Stascs, 2010
5: For addional informaon about NTBs in Mena
countries, refer to Augier and Pridy (2010)
6: Concerning the trade-migraon relaonship, re-
fer for instance to Co and al., 2004, Izanzo and
Pri (2009) as well as Bran et al. (2009)
7: See Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) for the
complete derivaon of the model
8: Basically, the rst stage esmates a pure xed
eects model to obtain an esmate of the unit
eects. The second step implements an instru-
mental regression of the xed eects vector on
the me invariant variables. This makes it possi-
ble to decompose the xed eects vector into a
rst component explained by the me-invariant
variables and a second component, namely the
unexplainable part (the error term). It also ad-
dresses the endogeneity problem. In the last
stage, the model is re-esmated by pooled OLS,
including all explanatory variables, the me-in-
variant variables and the error term. This third
step ensures the control for co-linearity between
me-varying and invariant right hand side varia-
bles.
9: It can be esmated is several stages. The rst
stage esmates a Probit model (test for the pro-
bability of country i to exports to country j). In
a second stage, provided that exports occur, the
eects of trade barriers and other variables can
be esmated though the choice of an appropria-
te esmator (Heckman, 1979, Greene, 2006).
This method seems parcularly interesng in
the present research study because it specically
takes into account the informaon contained
in the zero or missing data. The main problem
is to choose the appropriate selecon variable.
Recent research at rm level (Melitz, 2003) sug-
gests that in case of dierent producvity levels
between rms, the existence of xed costs pro-
duces a selecon of the rms. As a result, only
the most producve ones succeed in exporng
whereas the others remain on the domesc mar-
ket. This suggests that producvity at rm level
can be used as the selecon variable in this kind
of model. Unfortunately, in the present research,
data are not available for all countries at rm le-
vel so that this selecon variable cannot be im-
plemented. Instead, the lagged export variable
will also be used as the selecon variable. As
already explained in secon 2, this can be jus-
ed by considering hysteresis in internaonal
trade (Baldwin and Krugman, 1989).
-85- -85-
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DETAILED SITUATION IN MPs :
COUNTRY SHEETS
-92-
-93- -93-
ALGERIA : A new found growth due to oil but
with little diversification and openess
The Algerian economy is back to its pre-crisis
growth-trend, aer an ephemeral slump were
growth decelerated to 2.2% in 2009, GDP rose by
an esmated 4.1% in 2010 which is equal to the
2000-2007 annual average rate. As always, when
oil prices rise so do Algerian exports and by now
there is no need to remind how the domesc regi-
me has been both a blessing and a curse. In terms
of internaonal reserves it has allowed Algeria to
aain skyrockeng heights and provide for its bud-
getary needs. But, the maximum growth potenal,
one that could be achieved through the develop-
ment of more producve sectors of the economy,
has not been aained.
In previous reports, FEMISE (2009, 2010) had noted
how oil-led growth contributes to maintaining frail
structural foundaons, to sustain an import orien-
ted economy when oil is excluded and to impede
on the development of a knowledge economy. Re-
cent events in the region allow stressing how the
domesc authories have long had an autocentric
regime that constutes a barrier to both internao-
nal opening and democracy, despite some eorts
being conducted in the past. Unfortunately, the risk
for the adopon of proteconist behaviour is always
there and could signify Algeria misses the oppor-
tunity for long-term stability through democrac
openess, choosing instead a progressively closed
regime. It would be a waste of eorts conducted in
the end of the 1980s when the country decided to
move away from a centrally-planned structure.
One thing is clear, in light of uprises in the Mediter-
ranean, the challenge has to be dealt imminently.
Simply put, while the country has managed to res-
pond to the threat of the internaonal crisis of end-
2008 in a relavely eecve manner , it sll has a
long way towards a growth-regime that relies less
on capital accumulaon and more on producvity,
and that allows for stability in the social structure
in a context of regional turmoil.
In the Algerian case, the following elements merit
parcular aenon :
A 26.6% rise in goods exports took place
in 2010 and an increase of 37.2% is esmated for
2011 bringing the total to 78.5bn US$. Hence, the
trade balance bounced back impressively in 2010
and is now expected to 28.7bn US$ in 2011.
Foreign investment could fall by as much
as 5.4% to 3.5bn US$ which remains relavely
high. Even so there are sll chronic issues regar-
ding foreign capital parcipaon that have to be
dealt with.
The country has ample foreign currency
reserves that amounted to approximately 3 years
of imports of goods and services in 2010 and have
been on the rise during the rst months of 2011.
Meanwhile, external debt is low, at 6.6% of GDP in
2010, and has remained stable in the rst half of
2011. The rise in oil-prices obviously contributes to
making the cost of servicing more sustainable.
As was expected, economic acvity in
2010 recovered, even surpassing its pre-crisis le-
vels of growth, aaining 4.1%. It is expected to
reach the 4.6% mark in 2011 following sustained
growth in public spending and investment.
The unemployment rate slightly decli-
ned in 2010 to 10% from 10.2% in 2009. Aer the
rst six months of 2011 esmates point towards
a further reducon of the rate to 9.7% for the en-
re year.
The rate of inaon (3.9% in 2010, esma-
ted at 4% in 2011), while certainly not as high as in
neighbouring countries, could create social unrest
by further diminishing the purchasing power of the
poor. This explains why authories have promised
wage increases, especially in the public sector, to
avoid unrest following regional events.
In 2010, authorities maintained an ex-
pansionary fiscal policy and made efforts to
reduce the impact of lower oil-exports in the
previous year. Now, with public spending expec-
ted to keep sustaining growth in 2011, the fiscal
balance should remain in deficit but at a lower
level (at an estimated -2.1%).
-94-
Labour productivity growth has failed
to be consistent through years and penalizes
the rate of growth of per capita GDP. Authori-
ties need to reform education and the vocational
training system in order to facilitate the diffusion
of innovation and improve the quality of human
capital.
Finally, about 100000 students marched
in protest demanding democratisation of univer-
sities, transparency in the classification and bet-
ter correspondance between university degrees.
A long-term framework for youth employment
creation is needed, one that favors the partici-
pation of private actors. Authorities should also
render the labour market less rigid and target
sectors with the greatest potential for employ-
ment creation through employment-intensive
investment initiatives.
I. Polical economy situaon and its implicaons
1. The political model in a crucial transitory
phase
Though it has not faced situaons similar to those
of Tunisia and Egypt, the domesc polical scene is
more turbulent than it used to. The Algerian presi-
dent has been in place for 12 years and is now at
his third mandate following constuonal amend-
ments to allow prolonging his stay. Currently, the
domesc populaon has not yet rebelled, perhaps
sll marked by the events of civil war in the 1990s,
as in neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia. But if the
promises for change do not quickly materialize
then the discontent of the young populaon (70%
of Algerians are less than 30 years old) might grow
to untenable levels (NPR, 2011).
The graph below posions Algeria on the world J-
curve. The laer shows how the country bodes in
terms of polical stability and democrac openness.
Countries that have authoritarian regimes are gene-
rally stable and when openning-up their regimes to
democracy, they enter a short phase of instability
before before reaping the benets of a more demo-
crac economy and instuons. Before the end of
the 1980s, Algeria was stable because it was closed,
with limited possibility for external factors to un-
dermine the domesc authories. However, aer
a policy shi through which authories decided to
adopt a more liberal regime, the country moved on
the right side of the J-curve and went past the tran-
sion period through which one observes a tradeo
between openness and stability.
But, what the figure aslo shows is that Algeria is
still relatively close to the turning point which
means that if democratization efforts cease then
the country risks to fall back to a period of politi-
cal instability. In light of what is happening in the
Arab world, Algeria has two choices: it can keep
making efforts to reform its institutions and eco-
nomy towards more democracy since it is alrea-
dy past (though not by much) the crucial turning
point. Or it can fall-back to a protectionist stance
in an effort to maintain the political status-quo.
Recent events suggest that the situation could
evolve either way.
2. Governance has improved but reforms have
sll a long way to go
Indicators of governance can provide valuable insi-
ghts, explaining how Algeria is in a slightly more sta-
ble polical situaon than some of its neighbours.
As shown by gure 2, while all of Algerias governan-
ce scores have remained negave in 2009, improve-
ments have occurred in almost all measures.
Figure 1. Algeria on the world J-Curve (2010)
Algeria
3,246880309
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stability
Democracy
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indi-
cator, Index of Democracy [1]
-95-
More specically, the government eecveness in-
dicator, which includes percepons of the quality
of services provided by public authories but also
oers a measure of credibility and policy implemen-
taon quality, is suggested to have greatly improved
between 2000 and 2009. Meanwhile, control of
corrupon appears to have improved, probably re-
ecng the eorts of Algerian authories in recent
years to combat corrupon. Let it be noted that in
2010, and following the insgaon of the an-cor-
rupon law of 2006, authories approved the crea-
on of a central an-corrupon agency to improve
the countrys eecveness to combat domesc cor-
rupon, especially in major infrastructure projects
that are of strategic importance to the domesc
economy. Furthermore, authories have made ef-
forts for the training of managers who handle pu-
blic nancial ressources, while nancial inspecon
within ministries has been increased (Source: Ma-
gharebia 2010).
Even so, Algerias measures to ght corrupon have
not prevented a low ranking at the internaonal le-
vel. In its 2010 edion, the Corrupon Percepons
Index (CPI) of Transparency Internaonal ranks
Algeria 105th out of 178 countries and despite a
slight improvement (the country was 111th in the
2009 CPI edion) Algeria remains among the most
corrupt economies in the region. Meanwhile, a lot
remains to be done regarding freedom of expres-
sion, as suggested by the low levels of the voice
and accountability indicator, a fact that should be
taken into account by domesc authories if they
wish to genuinely procceed to
reforms for more democracy.
Last but not least, it appears
that in a decade Algeria has
worsened in terms of rule of
regulatory quality (WGI, World
Bank 2010), that is in the capabi-
lity of local authories to deve-
lop and apply policy measures
that facilitate the development
of the domesc private sector.
Recently, FEMISE had noted
how authories appear to be following an inverse
trend compared to the rest of the region, moving
towards a more proteconist stance of economic
patriosm . While such approach could provide as-
sistance to local rms, by restoring the role of public
authories as a protector from market deciencies,
it could also further impede on the development of
the private sector by liming the presence of foreign
capital and trade (FEMISE-EIB, 2010).
3. A growth model that sll does not decrease
inequalies
In a previous report, FEMISE (2009) had already
noted how past social policies led to some limited
distribuonal shis in favor of the poor. But while
the poorest decile did benet from income growth,
it barely received 3% of total income in the 1988-
1995 period.
Meanwhile, the following gure suggests that the
Algerian regime of economic growth does not yet
allow for the reducon of inequalies. An increase
in GDP per capita actually increases inequalies
domescally since the distribuon of wealth main-
ly favors richer deciles of the populaon. As in the
case of almost the enre region, Algeria is sll too
far from the p-over point aer which the growth
eect alone can reduce inequalies.
Thus, one would ask the following: is Algeria ra-
pidly progressing to the p-over point to make
Figure 2. Algerias Governance Indicators
-2
-1,6
-1,2
-0,8
-0,4
0
0,4
2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Voice &
Accountability
Political Stability
No Violence
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
Source : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note : Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
-96-
such inequality level more bearable ? A study
by Cherkaoui et al (2009) suggests that Algerian
eorts for a pro-poor growth regime that redu-
ces inequalies have had some posive results
in the rst half of the 2000s though poverty has
followed an errac path. The rate of poverty rose
from 8% in 1988 to 14% in 1995, and gradually fell
to 12% and 6.8% in 2000 and 2004 respecvely.
However, the poor sll appear to be highly con-
centrated in southern regions and rural poverty
(according to naonal poverty line) in 2000 was
at 14.7% of the total populaon. Furthermore, it
appeears that, ceteris paribus, the unemployed
Algerians, those issued from large households,
with limited access to potable water and electri-
city, as well as those with a low educaon level,
have the highest probabilies of being poor (Che-
rkaoui et al, 2009).
But, one must not forget that the Algerian case is a
specic one. The human development level has either
risen or fallen with each variaon in oil-prices and con-
sequent revenues (the Algerian HDI value for 2010 is
of 0.677 and the country is 84th out of 169). This signi-
es that domesc eorts to reduce poverty, especially
those of the Plan in Support of Economic Reacvaon
(PSRE), sll overly depend on the oil economy. It ap-
pears that there is no real convergence between Alge-
rian regions. As noted by Belarbi and Zouache (2008)
there might be convergence clubs in Algeria since
there is a tendency for rich regions to stay rich and for
poor regions to stay poor. The authors suggest that
the sectors that carry domesc growth (especially
hydrocarbons and construcon) do not produce the
necessary posive externality on the local economy.
All in all, the domesc regime of growth, while pe-
rhaps more ecient than the ones in some neighbou-
ring MPs, sll needs reform and a more diversied
structure in its sources of income to sustain poverty
alleviaon.
II. Recent Developments: Real and Financial
Transmission
1. Real sector relavely unaected by regional
tensions
The domesc real sector has been le relavely
unaected by recent events in the region. One
would note:
A 26.6% rise in goods exports for the year
2010 to 57.2bn US$ and an esmated increase of
37.2% in 2011 to 78.5bn US$,
A 2.7% rise in the imports bill in 2010 and
an expected 29.7% rise in 2011 which would bring
it to an ancipated 49.8bn US$,
The domestic trade balance bounced
back impressively in 2010 to 18.8bn US$, it is
now expected to rise by an additional 52.7% to
28.7bn US$ in 2011,
It remains to be seen if tourism will be
affected by recent events, the service balance is
expected to fall by 26.5% in 2011 to a deficit of
10.5bn US$,

As suggested by FEMISE (2010), the domestic
economy is more open than the Mediterranean
average in the case of goods trade, with a tra-
de openess ratio (sum of exports and imports
divided by GDP) close to 70% in 2008 (versus
approximately 53% for the Mediterranean as a
whole). Naturally, this is in large part due to oil-
exports which traditionally amount to more than
90% of Algerian total exports. Decomposing the
structure of domestic exports has little mea-
ning since energy exports amounted to 97.2% of
Figure. 3 Algeria on Kuznetss regional curve
14792 US$
GDP / capita
Inequalies
Sources : FEMISE calculaons based on EHII inequality
database and WDI 2010
-97-
exports in the first half of 2011. Algerian trade
keeps benefiting from price-rises which are ex-
pected to lead to an impressive 37.2% increase
in total goods exports in 2011.
On the import side, the value of imports grew by
2.7% in 2010 and is expected to rise by 29.7% in
2011, to an anticipated 49.8bn US$. Both the rise
in domestic demand (by 6.8% in 2010 and by an
expected 7.6% in 2011) and the ever increasing
food prices (with food representing approxima-
tely 15% of Algerian imports according to EIU)
contribute to the import bill escalating. Even so,
despite the import-rise, the trade balance re-
mains largely positive, it bounced back impres-
sively in 2010 to 18.8bn US$ and is expected to
rise by 52.7% to 28.7bn US$ in 2011. But again,
if oil-prices had evolved differently then Algeria
would have faced an entirely different scenario,
a possibility never to be excluded sometime in
the future following domestic dependency to
the hydrocarbon sector.
The service balance has traditionally been ne-
gative since Algeria, which lacks diversification
in its production structure, traditionally imports
most of its services. Thus, it should come as no
surprise that, following the rise in international
prices, the Algerian service balance deficit grew
even more in 2010, to -8.3bn US$, while it is ex-
pected to grow even further to an estimated -
10.5bn US$in 2011 (EIU).
Despite uprisings in its neighbours, the country
received more than 2 million tourists in the past
year, which corresponds to an 8.32% growth in
2010 (following a 9.45% growth in 2009) making
it one of the continents major tourist destina-
tions. The fact that about two-thirds of tourists
are Algerians living abroad and government ef-
forts in recent years to promote the country as
a holiday destination might explain the sectors
resilience, however, it remains to be seen how
tourism will have performed throughout 2011.
2. Financial Sector: Exchange rate slipping due to new
method of payment for imports and regional events
Currently, Algeria remains a financial market re-
latively closed, because of low levels of capital
account liberalization and financial liberalization
at an intermediate stage (FEMISE 2009, research
report FEM33-20). Thus, financial contagion in
the context of the regional climate of tension is
rather limited.
Figure 4. Evoluon of goods exports and oil-prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e
Oil price (Brent; US$/b) Goods exports (bn US$)
Source : EIU
Figure 5. Trade balance for rst half of 2011 (million US$)
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
Food Energy etc Unrefined
products
Semi-
Products
Agricultural
equipment
Industrial
equipment
Non-food
consumption
Total
Exports Imports
Source : Algex.DZ
-98-
2.1 Foreign investment on the rebound but chro-
nic issues regarding foreign capital parcipaon
have to be dealt with
In 2011, FDI might fall by 5.4% to 3.5bn US$, but
the value is relatively high, especially conside-
ring the reluctance of investors to invest in the
South Mediterranean (EIU). Even so, this does
not mean that the investment climate for forei-
gners is optimal a fact even domestic authorities
have recognized since they encourage domes-
tic investment to the detriment of the foreign
one. More specifically, one should not forget
that authorities impose a 49% ceiling for forei-
gn participation in new projects, a fact that has
brought the domestic economy little FDI when
the oil-sector is excluded. Furthermore, out of
183 economies, Algeria is only 136th in the ease
of doing business (Doing Business 2011, World
Bank). Overall, tax policies appear to be an im-
pediment, for instance Orascom Telecom sold its
Algerian unit Djezzy (held up by authorities since
tax issue has not yet seen a resolution). because
of a tax system deemed discouraging.
2.2 Stock Market too small for any crisis-induced
transmission to occur
The Algiers stock exchange is characterized by
its very low level of development. In early 2011,
the market would showcase only two listed equi-
ties, a hotel owned by public authorities (Egh el
Aurassi) and a pharmaceutical company (Saidal),
again owned by the government. Meanwhile,
the only debt securities to be found were those
of three companies: Algerie Telecom, Spa Dahli
and Sonelgaz.
Discussing on potenal costs of the revoluons on
the domesc stock-exchange serves lile purpose,
transacons are extremely low (6.74 million US$
for all 2009), trading acvity is resumed to Monday
and Wednesday sessions that only last two hours,
while the Algerian Bourse is not present in any
MSCI indices.
The private sector is not present in the stock-exchan-
ge because it fails to meet accounng standards of
transparency that would make it eligible for parci-
paon. An excepon might be found in the case of Al-
gerian Alliance Assurances which held the rst private
company IPO (of 20.5 million US$) in end-2010 before
entering the stock-exchange in February 2011.
2.3 Foreign Reserves and Debt Indicators are solid
Not surprisingly, Algeria had considerable foreign
exchange reserves in 2010 and in early 2011; they
amounted to approximately 3 years of imports of
goods and services in 2010 and have been on the rise
during the rst months of 2011 following the con-
nuous rise in oil-prices. As always, foreign reserves
act as a cushioning mechanism, protecng the do-
mesc economy from external shocks. The high level
of reserves also means that Algeria can keep avoiding
internaonal capital markets for external borrowing,
relying on its domesc oil-stabilizaon fund to cover
public decits instead.
As for external debt, it kept following a decreasing
trend to 2.9% of GDP in 2010 and has remained sta-
Figure 6. Import cover, in months of next years imports of goods
and services
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : IMF
Figure 7. Debt Indicators in Algeria, % on GDP in parenthesis
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total external debt (US$ bn) Debt-service ratio, paid (%)
(4,9%)
(4,3%)
(3,4%) (3,9%)
(2,9%) (2,4%) (2,3%)
Source : EIU
-99-
ble in the rst months of 2011 and is expected to fall
to 2.4% of GDP in 2011. The rise in oil-prices allowed
for this and are expected to keep doing so throughout
2011 as well, making the cost of servicing more sus-
tainable. But, one should note that the low level of
debt is also due to the prudent macroeconomic ma-
nagement of the last decade, a fact recognized by the
Internaonal Monetary Fund (IMF, 2011).
4. Recent events contribute to an exchange rate pa-
rity in freefall
The exchange rate had been slipping in early 2011
following the recent imposion of the so-called do-
cumentary credit as a unique means of payment for
all imports [2]. While the Algerian dinar had aprecia-
ted vis-a-vis the Euro in 2010 it was then depreciang
compared to both major currencies (US$ and Euro).
On the formal (interbank) market the Euro was tra-
ded for 106 AD, up from 90 AD approximately in early
2010 (EconomicsNewsPapers, 2011).
The credit requirement has pushed importers to rake
the currency for imports payment into the parallel
market, which reacted by pushing up the price of the
European currency (means of payment of about 80%
of imports). Thus, on the informal currency market,
the Euro is now traded for 145 AD, which corres-
ponds to a 40% depreciaon for the Algerian dinar
in a period of 18 months (EIU). Overall, the dinar is
expected to appreciate against the euro from an ave-
rage of AD102.02:1 in 2011 to AD91.86:1 in 2015
as the euro zone connues to be in crisis (EIU). It is
also expected to appreciate slightly vis a vis the US$
to AD72.05:US$1 in 2015.
III. Economic Policy and Macro expectaons
1. Main developments
1.1 Economic growth stabilizing in 2011 but sll fol-
lows a fragmented approach
Growth (expected at 4.6%) follows the development
of the industry sector, the later is expected to account
for approximately 61.6% of value added in 2011 fol-
lowed by 30.2% for services and 8.1% for agriculture.
The laer sector represents only a small share in total
GDP, the arable land is vast (8.2 million hectares) only
accounts for less than 3.5% of total land. But, one has
to note that agriculture and the food market in ge-
neral have been developing in recent years and 2011
marks no excepon. In an eort to increase produc-
vity and the total levels of agricultural producon
and reduce dependency on food imports (currently
at 75% of food needs), authories have decided to
upgrade the agricultural infrastructure, most notably
through irrigaon iniaves (TeatroNaturale, 2011).
Meanwhile, authories recently signed a memoran-
dum of understanding and cooperaon with Morocco
to boost agricultural and rural development in both
economies by developing various related elds such
as trade, food safety as well as scienc research.
New methods of irrigaon and water management
could increase harvest, render agriculture more re-
liable and less dependent on rainfall, and contribute,
though sll much less than oil, to GDP growth.
Overall, Algeria has all to gain by using its ressources
from oil to diversify its sources of economic acvity
for future growth. But it needs to do so within a cohe-
Figure 8. Exchange rate indicators
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exchange rate
AD:US$ (av)
Exchange rate
AD: (av)
Real effective
exchange rate
(av), CPI-based
Source : EIU
Figure 9. GDP growth decomposed by sector
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Agriculture Industry Services GDP Per capita GDP
Source : EIU
-100-
rent framework. Currently, authories appear inca-
pable of developing the economy within a coherent
strategic vision. Granted, there is a ve-year economic
program (2010-2014) of 286 billion US$ that targets,
among others, infrastructure, educaon and housing.
But, it unfortunately appears that a fragmented sec-
toral approach is being implemented to the expense
of the global picture.
1.2. Unemployment rate to slightly fall following re-
cent iniaves
The unemployment rate in Algeria slightly declined in
2010 to 10% from 10.2% in 2009. Aer the rst six
months of 2011 esmates point towards a further re-
ducon of the rate to 9.7% for the enre year. Even
so, the labour force is expected to grow by roughly
1.6% in 2011 (versus 1.3% in 2010) which means that
addional eorts should be made to boost the rate of
employment creaon to cover for both new entrants
and the current 1.2 million unemployed.
The New Complementary Finance Act is expected
to contribute to employment creaon and assist the
authories challenge of creang 3 million jobs for
the 2010-2014 period. Iniaves at the local level
could provide results as well, in Algiers plans for the
creaon of 200000 jobs in the 2011-2014 period have
been announced through investment projects in sec-
tors such as real estate, tourism and construcon.
1.3. Persistent inflationnary pressures
Inaonnary pressures in 2010, though lower than
in 2009, remained high following the rise in domesc
demand, the rise in internaonal prices and
restricons on imports. The rate of inaon
reached 3.9% and is expected to slightly rise
to 4%. Rising prices for agricultural imports
could put an addional burden on the consu-
mer price index. In May 2011, the cereals pri-
ce index had already increased by 69% year-
on-year, while the price of sugar rose by 44%
in the same period as well according to FAO.
Figure 10. Evoluon of the labour force, in millions (rate in parenthesis)
(9,9%)
(10%) (10,2%)
(11,3%)
(13,8%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Employment (m) Unemployment (m)
Source : IMF, EIU * esmaons for 2011
Figure 11. Growth of unemployment and employment creaon
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Labour force
(% change)
Employment
(% change)
Unemploymen
t rate (%)
Source : EIU, esmaons for 2011
Box. Incenves for employment, purchasing power and
rms development provided by the 2011 Complementary
Finance Act
The new Algerian Complementary Finance Act provides a
series of incenves for the creaon of SMEs and the expan-
sion of the exisng price subsidy mechanisms for consump-
on products. Among others, the incenves include:
Support to small rms and employment creaon for a
large share of the populaon in the northern territory (65%
to 80%), in high altude and in southern provinces (72%
to 90%),
Creaon of a gradual tax targeng small rms, a 70%
tax reducon in the rst year, followed by a 50% and 25%
reducon in the second and third year respecvely,
Similarly, the creaon of a gradual tax with tax exemp-
ons for new acvies (tax exempon during the rst two
years, 70%, 50% and 25% reducon for the third, fourth
and h years) in an eort to progressively reduce the
share of the unocial market,
Customs tax and value-added tax exempon on a se-
ries of imported foodstus (most notably raw vegetable
oil and sugar).
Source : Echoroukonline (2011)
-101-
The current rates of inflation, while certainly not
as high as the ones traditionally found in coun-
tries such as Egypt, Syria and Turkey, could crea-
te social unrest by diminishing the purchasing
power of the poor. Thus, authorities promised
wage increases, especially in the public sector,
to avoid unrest.
The government has been used to subsidize
foodstuffs and introduce price controls thus
maintaining inflation at artificially low levels.
The year 2011 should mark no exception, accor-
ding to EIU, authorities are expected to reduce
the impact of international price rises through
price ceilings, that is by applying or eliminating
specific tariffs and also by managing distribu-
tion. Fortunately, the ample oil-revenues should
prevent a negative impact on the fiscal balance
from rising food subsidies.
2. Demand side: Growth rebound expected to be
sustained and scal balance recovering
2.1 Eonomic acvity that recovers because of pu-
blic consumpon and investment growth
As was expected, acvity in 2010 recovered, even
surpassing its pre-crisis levels of growth, aaining
4.1% and expected at 4.6%.
While fueling growth by government consumpon
might hamper the development of the private sec-
tor, one must note that government spending has
been of support. Public consumpon marked a real
increase of 11.2% in 2010 and is not expected to
slow down, esmates from EIU point towards a 15%
increase in 2011 well above prior growth rates.
Moreover, esmates for 2011 indicate investment
growth to be resilient, following a 7% rise in 2010
the gross xed capital formaon (GFCF) is now ex-
pected to grow by an addional 6.5%. The growth
in the GFCF will sll be below the rate achieved
before the internaonal crisis but in a context of
regional polical turmoil the rate achieved is con-
siderable.
2.2 Aer a massive deterioraon the scal decit
is expected to be reduced
After the international crisis, authorities pro-
ceeded to increased spending to avoid cases of
social unrest. Thus, while the fiscal balance was
positive throughout the decade (at 7.4% in 2000-
2007, at 9% in 2008) it fell to a record negative of
-5.5% in 2009.
In 2010, authorities
maintained an expan-
sionary fiscal policy
and made efforts to
reduce the impact of
lower oil-exports in
the previous year. The
fiscal savings would
support high spending
in public infrastructure
investment, of crucial
Figure 12. Internaonal food prices and the Algerian CPI
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
4/2010 5/2010 6/2010 7/2010 8/2010 9/2010
10/2010 11/2010 12/2010
1/2011 2/2011 3/2011 4/2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
CPI Algeria FAO Food Price Index
Sources : FAO, Oce Naonal des Stasques
Figure 13. Decomposing demand, annual variaon of expenditure to GDP
3,1
2,9
2,0
4,6
7,3
3,5
4,1
5,7
7,1
8,8
10,4
11,2
9,8
8,1
5,0
7,0
6,5
-0,6
3,9
0,1
0,5
1,4
7,6
13,7
8,4
7,7
10,6
4,1
5,7
15,0
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Exports Imports
Source : EIU
-102-
importance to growth. Rising oil-prices would in-
crease reserves in the Fonds de rgulation des
recettes which would in turn contribute to re-
duce the fiscal deficit. Now, with public spending
expected to keep sustaining growth in 2011, the
fiscal balance should remain in deficit but at a
lower level (at an estimated -2.1%).
It is also to Algerias advantage that it has a limi-
ted public debt which provides for more room
for manuvre in sustaining its infrastructure
programme all the while providing social assis-
tance to combat unemployment. Even so, the
current fiscal stance might have to be contained.
As noted by the IMF, a gradual fiscal consolida-
tion would ensure fiscal sustainability in the co-
ming years.
2.3 A monetary/exchange-rate policy at crossroads
The Algerian Central Bank follows a managed
float policy of the dinar to ensure exchange-rate
stability. A relatively cautious monetary policy,
combined with high oil prices and a fiscal policy
that used to be prudent, contributed to having
large foreign currency reserves, low debt and
ample savings in the oil stabilization fund.
But as seen earlier, the domestic currency is now
depreciating compared to both the US dollar and
the Euro. The decline in the offer of the latter
combined with the surge in inflation and regio-
nal social risks could mean currency holders see
the euro as a safe bet that appears preferable to
the dinar.
As noted by the IMF, monetary and exchange
rate policies should instead be oriented toward
absorbing excess liquidity from the oil-economy
and parry inflation emanating from the civil-
servant wage increases. In case of persisting
inflation, the interest rates might have to be in-
creased, providing a better signal for the cost of
domestic credit than the one provided from the
state of liquidity absorption.
IV. The youth issue
1. General characteriscs of youth unemployment
As noted before, the domestic economy is a net
oil-exporter, one that may profit from rises in oil-
prices to benefit its trade balance and that has
ample foreign currency reserves and very little
external debt. But, authorities have been inca-
pable to produce sufficient jobs which especially
penalizes first-time job-seekers.
The unemployment phenomenon in Algeria
mainly aects the youth (ILO esmaons suggest
a youth jobless rate of 24.3%); the jobless rate
for those aged 16-24 reached 21.5% in end-2010,
while the rate for adults (older than 25) is only of
7.1%. While the gure appears alarming, its ma-
gnitude is even greated when taking into account
that about 48% of the populaon is under the
age of 24 and that about 70% of the unemployed
in Algeria are under 30 years old.
One has to note that while populaon growth
has been globally declining since the 1980s, labor
force parcipaon has been increasing following
the entrance of young women into the labour
force. Government policies and increasing educa-
on for young girls might have been the cause for
the shi. The increasing parcipaon of women
led to a recomposion of the labor force, their
share in labor grew by roughly 50% between
1980 and and 2004 and their parcipaon rate
by 70% (Kpodar, 2008).
Even so, a glimpse at prevailing acvity rates in
Algeria shows that there is sll a considerable gap
between genders. When focusing at the 15-24
youth demographic one noces that the acvity
rate for young men is at 46.5% versus only 8.9% for
young women. But, the gender gap phenomenon
is not solely linked to the youth, it is clearly appa-
rent that women of all ages are under-represented
in the domesc labor force despite their increasing
parcipaon in recent decades.
-103-
Finally, taking into account labour market rigidity and
a demand-supply mismatch one understands that the
issue of youth employment is a dicult one to solve.
Perhaps, to provide concrete answers for the future
generaons of Algeria, authories should priorize
their focus on providing beer educaon.
2. The youth issue, poor educaon quality and
labour producvity
An internaonal assessment of the math and
science knowledge of fourth grade students
shows that Algerian students are below average
in science while they are close to average regar-
ding mathemacs (scores under 400 signify only
basic knowledge is acquired). Granted, Algerian
fourth graders seem to perform beer than nei-
ghbouring students in Morocco and Tunisia in
both elds. Even so, their knowledge level seems
low when compared to the ones obtained in Eas-
tern transion economies such as Hungary (536
in science and 510 in math), Latvia (542 in science
and 537 in math) and Lithuania (514 in science
and 530 in math).
One could say that authorities need to spend
more to render the educational system more ef-
ficient. But this argument would contradict pu-
blic spending on education figures which clearly
show that Algeria spends more on education
than the Arab world on average, with educa-
tion spending amounting to about 4.3% of GDP,
a percentage that is slightly above the average
ratio of education spending to GDP in lower mid-
dle income economies. Hence it is less a ques-
tion of quantity spent and more of low quality in
the educational reform process.
As highlighted in a recent study (Achy, 2010),
since its independence Algeria has pursued seve-
ral reforms of its educaon system that did allow
for improvements in literacy rates and educaon
access for both genders, however, the quality of
educaon has been receeding. Teachers perceive
low wages and are only parally invested in their
jobs, teaching methods lack modernism and eec-
veness and this connues onto university where
high joblessness awaits graduates since the sys-
tem is incapable to cope with labor demands.
The fact that more than a third of the unemployed
are secondary and terary graduates (mostly wo-
Box. Understanding the basic characteriscs of youth
unemployment in Algeria
About 68.5% of the unemployed are between 20 and
34 years old, 80.4 % are employed in non-permanent
posions, 67.7 % in the private sector and 38.5 % have
lost their job less than 12 months ago.
Unemployment is high among the educated popu-
laon and especially women, while the rate among the
non-educated is of 7.3%, it reaches 21.4% for those with
a degree from secondary educaon ( aecng men less
than women with an 11.1 % rate for men and 33.6 %
for women). Overall, about 34% of the unemployed are
secondary and terary graduates.
Meanwhile, 42% of the unemployed are in rural areas.
At present, the informal economy is the main em-
ployer of the youth and especially for women. The infor-
mal economy is esmated at about 45%.
Authories have adressed the issue in a fragmented
and non-ecient manner (especially through micro-credit
iniaves). Hence, labor producvity during the recent
decade has been low. On average, 400000 job-applicants
register annually with only 60000 job oers from rms and
45000 job seekers that end up being employed.
Source : Oce Naonal des Stasques (2011), Kpodar
K. (2008), Achy (2010)
Figure 14. Activity rates in Algeria, by age and gender,
end 2010
46,5
90,8
92,4
8,9
23,9
16,8
28,2
57,5
53,9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
15-24 25-34 35-54
Men Women Total
Source : Oce Naonal des Stasques
-104-
men) suggests that educaon is incapable of pro-
viding proper orientaon as well as the necessary
qualicaons to the Algerian youth. Thus, it comes
as no surprise that the private sector faces a lack of
qualied labor with basic skills, nong that roughly
80% of students are enrolled in humanies, social
and related sciences, which oen signify less em-
ployment opportunies, while only about 20% of
students are in sciences and engineering which are
vital to the labor markets needs.
This inefficiency is mirrored into an inconsistent
labour productivity growth, one that has failed
to be consistent through years and which in turn
penalizes the observed rate of growth of per
capita GDP. The persistency of relying to great
extent on the hydrocarbons sector coupled with
international oil-price variations were also a ne-
gative determinant to domestic labor. Algerian
exports had plummeted in the late 80s following
a drastic fall in oil prices which finally lead to the
IMF structural adjustment program for Algeria
in which about 405 000 public employees were
fired but without a private-sector job to acco-
modate them. While official statistics showed a
drastic fall in unemployment, this program en-
ded-up eroding purchasing power and contribu-
ted to the rise of the informal sector, ignoring
the longer term and stigmatizing labor produc-
tivity compared to other countries of similar de-
velopment stages. As for recent policies for the
youth, they seem to focus too much on public
works programs that provide opportunities that
are both ephemeral and underpaid, without
treating the core of the unemployment issue.
3. What policies for the youth ?
Domestic authorities clearly need to elaborate
a long-term youth employment strategy. As ex-
pressed by recent events (in April 10th 2011
about 100000 students marched in protest from
the Grande Poste to the quarters of the Alge-
rian presidency) the Algerian youth demands
democratisation of universities, transparency
in the classification and better correspondance
between university degrees in the old and new
system. They also need to know that their de-
gree will provide them with the opportunities
they deserve.
Figure 15. Average science and mathemacs scale scores of 4th-grade students, Algeria VS the World: 2007
354
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Source : IES, Naonal Center for Educaon Stascs, U.S. Department of Educaon
378
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Figure 16. Public spending on education, last date available,
total (% of GDP)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
Algeria Arab World Low income Lower middle income
Source : WDI
Figure 17. Algeria : Labour productivity and per capita GDP
growth in recents years
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Labour productivity growth Growth of real GDP per head
Source : EIU
-105-
But such concerns cannot be met with short-run so-
luons, they need a long-term framework that may
come with the parcipaon of private actors. First,
the government should follow reforms to increase
labour producvity for a sustainable unemployment
reducon. Improving the business environment and
focusing on the quality of human capital instead of
accumulang physical capital could pave the way to-
wards accomplishing the target. Second, rendering
the labour market less rigid, all the while ensuring
unemployment insurance coverage is provided, could
also be of help allowing for easier and faster employ-
ment creaon. Finally, Algerian authories need to
target sectors with the greatest potenal for employ-
ment creaon. To do so they should rely on employ-
ment-intensive investment, both public and private,
that oen necessitates hiring qualied employees to
carry on projects that oen last several years. Intensi-
fying vocaonal training iniaves to orient the youth
towards new sectors that are potenal growth car-
riers would also be a wise approach.
Some iniaves have been recently followed with
posive, though some mes insucient, results. In
2010 the ANEM plan for the youth allowed 181839
young people to nd a job while the DAIP instru-
ment for professional inseron helped for the in-
seron of 273141 young individuals. Among the
laer, 99691 were university graduates (or 26,5%
of the total) and overall an esmated 531000 em-
ployment posions were created in Algeria for
2010. Dierent social programs through the ANSEJ
iniave have also contributed in creang job po-
sions for the youth in all regions.
But problems remain as suggested by 4000 of-
ficial employment demand files that currently
remain as suffering ( en souffrance ) with
observed incoherencies regarding the status
and treatment of job-seekers, the non-applying
of workers rights by responsible authorities and
the existence of fictionnal jobs. This suggests
that coordination among agencies is also of im-
minent necessity if the government wishes to
tackle the issue in a profound manner.
V. Conclusions
The Algerian economy is back to its pre-crisis growth-
level, GDP rose by an esmated 4.1% in 2010 ans
is expected to remain near the 4.6% mark in 2011.
Meanwhile, the country moved on the right side
of the J-curve and went past the transion period
through which one observes a tradeo between
openness and stability. Even so, the Algerian regime
of economic growth does not yet allow for the re-
ducon of inequalies and concerns and tension
have been rising among the populaon.
The analysis suggests the following policy recom-
mendaons.
First, reforms at the polical level are needed with
tensions among the youth rising. If democrazaon
eorts are not sustained then the country risks to fall
back to a period of instability. Authories announced
that reforms to the constuon will occur for a more
representave democracy, but when and how this ef-
fort will take place is sill unknown. For the rst me in
more than a decade the state of emergency that had
been in force since has been lied while the Naonal
Security Council was convened.
Second, the challenge posed by the recent surge of
inaon and the evolving dinar-euro exchange rate
parity mean that the scal stance will have to be
contained within a context of regional turmoil. But,
it should provide for beer scal sustainability in
the coming years and growth could be maintained
with beer use of public spending.
Third, the factors that contributed to the fall of
neighbouring regimes such as youth unemploy-
ment, lack of transparency and persistent cor-
ruption are all present in Algeria. Thus, authori-
ties should adress these issues while there is still
time, since they have not yet caused a similar
revolution domestically.
Fourth, a long-term framework for youth em-
ployment creation is needed, one that favors
-106-
the participation of private actors. Authorities
should render the labour market less rigid and
target sectors with the greatest potential for
employment creation through employment-in-
tensive investment initiatives. One should also
note the following : it had been estimated by FE-
MISE (2006) that a TFP growth of 0.7% annually
combined with a 30% investment rate would
be necessary to reduce unemployment by half.
Several years later such observation is more re-
levant than ever, the government needs to fol-
low reforms to increase labour productivity. This
implies reforming education and the vocational
training system in order to facilitate the diffusion
of innovation and improve the quality of domes-
tic human capital.
Finally, targeng sectors that can sustain employ-
ment must always be envisaged. In such an eort
the authories appear to be following a plan to
smulate the texle sector through an enveloppe
of 2 bn US$. This would allow to rst buy o the
debt of texle rms and second proceede to mo-
dernizaon of the texle industry.
Endnotes :
1. The J-curve approximaon is obtained plong the
polical instability index (EIU) to the index of de-
mocracy 2010 (EIU).
We obtain a quadrac equaon that represents a si-
mlpied relaonship between the two indexes and
takes the form of :
Y= 5.2547 - 8.7419*LnX + 9.3128*lnX^2
where X is the EIU democracy indicator of 2010
and Y the inversed polical instability index (poli-
cal stability)
2. Documentary credit corresponds to a requi-
rement that all importers mobilize prior finan-
cial resources to pay for goods and services of
import orders (EIU).
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logue in the Maghreb Region , Jrgen Schwe-
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Brussels, 19 April 2011.
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bloqu la rue Didouche-Mourad , May 3rd.
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-108-
-109- -109-
EGYPT: Paving the way towards more sustainable
development
Up unl the polical uprising in January 2011, the
Egypan economy was judged to have weathe-
red the 2008 global nancial crisis relavely well.
Growth slowed down from 6.4% between FY05
and FY08 to only 4.9% and was on a recovery path
since mid 2010 (around 5%). Despite a fall in ex-
ports in the aermath of the 2008 crisis, the ex-
ternal posion remained sustainable. Domesc
demand remained robust, sustained by growth in
sectors such as construcon and communicaon.
Investment (parcularly soaring levels of FDI) had
an increasing role as a driver of growth before the
2008 crisis. As a result of strong reserve accumu-
laon, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) was able
to build a comfortable level of reserves (US$ 35
billion at end FY10) and was closely managing the
exchange rate.
Yet, a major shortfall of this high growth was
that it favored an elite of crony capitalists. It did
not achieve social inclusion, was accompanied
by rising inflation - particularly food -, did not
lead to job creation (particularly for the youth)
and was not inclusive of the poor. As a result of
the political upheaval, production stoppages,
absence of security and political uncertainties
already had a short-term cost. The outlook for
FY11 is as follows:
Growth has declined to 1.8%, reecng
a sharp fall in investment and a drop in tourism.
Growth for FY12 is forecasted at 3.7%,
As a result, unemployment is expected to
increase slightly above 12% as uncertainty connues
for the private sector and as migrants return from nei-
ghboring countries (parcularly Libya) due to the po-
lical contagion. Also, informality is likely to increase,
The current account decit was reduced to
1% of GDP, despite a sharp fall in services exports
and tourism falling by 8.6%,
FDI ows sharply fell by 67% and strong
short-term capital oulows are likely to connue
to occur especially from the t-bills market (forei-
gners hold 22%),
Pressures on the exchange rate may in-
duce the CBE to further reserve depleon. By end
of August, US$ 11 billion of reserves have been lost
and the current stock only covers 6.2 months of
imports from 8.6 months in June 2010,
Inaon is a near term risk and is expec-
ted to climb to 16%, as further rounds of global
food price increases are highly probable,
Public nances are worrisome with the s-
cal decit forecasted to rise to above 10% of GDP.
And while the decision to freeze subsidy reforms
is appropriate for the me being, the adopted ex-
pansionary measures as a reply to rising popular
requests raise scal sustainability concerns,
Finally, youth unemployment is the highest
(25%) parcularly among the graduates. For those
who are lucky to be employed, they are engaged in
precarious employment that is oen of low-quality,
low pay and highly unstable. So far, past policies have
been shortsighted and have not been coordinated.
This country prole discusses the current situaon
and underlines the challenges ahead. Aer presen-
ng the current polical context and what led to it,
it takes stock of the recent economic costs, in the
third quarter of FY11 (January-March), the period
right aer the revoluon. Finally, it addresses the
challenge of youth unemployment.
I. The limitaons of the polical economy model
Even before the revoluon, young Egypans had
been campaigning through social networks (face-
book) against corrupon, police brutality (espe-
cially from the State Security Service who used
violence and torture to suppress dissent under the
emergency law), and the monopolisaon of poli-
cal instuons by the ruling Naonal Democrac
Party. In addion, the conduct of the fraudulent
elecon at the end of 2010 led to mass rallies on
January 25th (Naonal Police Day) (EIU, 2011).
Inspired by the success of the Tunisian revoluon,
these rallies led to a popular uprising which top-
-110- -110-
pled 30-year old rule of president Mubarak last
February 2011.
The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), which
is believed to have put pressure on the president to
step down, has been overseeing the transion to a
civilian government unl new presidenal and par-
liamentary elecons are held. It has dissolved par-
liament, appointed three transient cabinets, and
announced a new constuonal declaraon that re-
placed the 1971 constuon. A president should be
elected before October 2011 and would then oversee
the draing of a new constuon. The emergency
law that has been in place since 1981 is supposed to
be lied ahead of the parliamentary elecon, which
is scheduled for November 2011.
1. A period of polical instability may have to be
endured
Before the revolution, Egypt had been conside-
red a stable political regime, perhaps with some
uncertainty closer to presidential elections. Eco-
nomic liberalization reforms were adopted in the
early 1990s, with a boost since 2004. However,
the revolution showed that political stability
does not necessarily mean political openness,
the latter not having gone hand in hand with
economic openness.
The J curve (as suggested by Bremmer (2006)) plots
state stability (which depends on the presence and
quality of instuons) against openness (both eco-
nomic and polical). Up to a certaIn point, there is a
short-term tradeo between openness and stability.
Countries like Egypt could be stable without neces-
sarily being democrac but as they open-up, they
become less so for a short-period. In Egypt, the tran-
sion towards more polical openness had already
been in process before the revoluon. Even though
the Egypan president sll retained full control over
execuve powers, opposon pares have been
permied but their formaon was ghtly control-
led, freedom of press was tolerated since the early
2000s, compared to neighboring countries. Indeed,
the J-curve shows that Egypt, like Tunisia, is very close
to the turning point aer which the tradeo between
openness and stability, provided genuine democra-
zaon eorts are undertaken
2. Governance and corruption measures are
alarming
Governance indicators could explain to what extent
bad governance was responsible for current poli-
cal outcomes. As gure 2 indicates, all of Egypts
governance scores are negave, indicang a poor
performance between 2000 and 2009. In parcu-
lar, a severe deterioraon has occurred in polical
measures (the voice and accountability
and polical stability and use of violence),
which conrms the demand of the youth
for democracy and polical parcipaon.
Meanwhile, regulatory quality and rule of
law improved, probably reecng govern-
ment eorts in recent years to simplify
business regulaons (Egypt was top refor-
mer 4 mes of the doing business report
between 2004 and 2009) and to reform
property rights and contract enforcement.
Figure 1. Egypt on the J-Curve
Egypt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Democracy
Stability
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indicator, Index
of Democracy.
Figure 2. Egypts Governance Indicators
-1,3
-1,1
-0,9
-0,7
-0,5
-0,3
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,5
Voice and
Accountability
Political
Stability
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
2000 2009
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note: Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
-111-
However, what is surprising is that the corrupon
measure also improved, which highlights some reser-
vaon on the indicator. Alternavely, Egypt had a sco-
re of 3.1 in 2010, ranking 98th out of 178 countries
(and 12th in the MENA region) in the Transparency
Internaonal Corrupon Percepon Index (0 being
highly corrupt and 10 being very clean), together with
Burkina Faso and only ahead of Algeria, Lebanon and
Syria from the Euro-Mediterranean region (Transpa-
rency Internaonal, 2010).
In Egypt, corrupon was not just associated with the
abuse by public ocials of their posions but was
a direct result of the collusion between money and
authority. In fact, the alliance between the state and
a privileged rent-seeking business elite was percei-
ved to be an important driver of the polical unrest.
The crony capitalists also appear to have failed to
use the domesc resources to their full advantage
(King, 2007). In fact, the share of private investment
to GDP was insucient (even aer peaking at 14.4%
in 2008) to create the necessary jobs to absorb a
growing labor force, and unemployment remains at
double-digit levels (World Bank, 2009). In a survey
that was conducted for the Center for Internaonal
Private Enterprise (CIPE) in 2009, results show that
28% of sample perceived the high rate of unemploy-
ment (followed by inaon) to be the most impor-
tant manifestaon of corrupon. The private busi-
nessmen were also able to inuence the adopon
of policies/reforms that favored them. As a result,
reforms related to the informal sector (30% of GDP)
were neglected. Some businessmen were also able
to maintain policies that were hosle to compeon
(like in the steel market). Other forms of widespread
corrupon also include giving credit to unworthy
large businessmen, distribung land at subsidized
prices (about 2025 % of the market price and about
5060 % of the infrastructure cost recovery) and gi-
ving privileges to polically connected businessmen
(World Bank, 2009). Enterprise surveys conducted
by the World Bank also conrm that corrupon is
the second concern for private sector development
followed by ancompeve and informal pracces
(World Bank, 2009).
3. Limitaons of Egypts growth model
As menoned before, Egypts economic growth was
on a recovery path, registering 5.6% in the rst half
of FY11 (up from 5.1% in FY10). Although these rates
were well below those recorded during the recent
boom (close to 7%), they were sll a posive result
against the background of a severe global recession.
The Egypan economy was even classied by the
Economist as one of the best six emerging markets
during the coming decade. If one thing the recent
revoluon showed was that past governments may
have delivered a beer recent macroeconomic
performance (measured by high growth driven by
unprecedented capital inows) but their model fell
short of providing a decent life for their cizens in
terms of beer human development, equality, de-
cent jobs and a transion out of poverty.
3.1 Growth without sucient human development
Egypts growth was accompanied by only slight im-
provement in human development indicators over
the past ten years. Between 2000 and 2010, Egypts
human development index rose by only 0.9% an-
nually, which gives the country a rank of 101 out of
169 countries in 2010. This places Egypt below the
regional average, lagging behind most countries
except Syria and Morocco (UNDP, 2010a). This is
not surprising given that the share of public expen-
diture on educaon and health in total spending is
very low (17 % between 2007 and 2010).
And while access to educaon improved with hi-
gher aendance rates and smaller gender gaps,
indicators of quality are alarming. Results from the
Trends in Internaonal Mathemacs and Science
Study (TIMSS) show that Egypts average scale score
is signicantly lower than the scale average. Even
more, the average score for Math and Science de-
clined between 2003 and 2007. Urban-rural dispa-
ries are very wide in terms of learning outcomes,
especially for young people (between 10-17 years),
as indicated by the Survey of Young People in Egypt
(SYPE) conducted in 2009. Moreover, El Arabi (2010)
-112-
provides evidence that the returns on educaon (an
indicator of quality) in Egypt are very low compa-
red to other developing countries. Moreover, UNDP
(2010b) explains that returns to educaon of young
people, especially the educated.
Health outcomes are also alarming. Results from
the 2008 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey
show that stunng (chronic malnutrion) in-
creased by 26% since 2005 (El-Zanaty and Way,
2009). Currently, 29% of children under ve are
stunted and 7% are acutely malnourished, which
corresponds exactly to the esmate of extreme
poverty (the inability to provide for food) (Marot-
ta et al., 2011b). The quality of health services is
very poor with the numbers of hospital beds, mid-
wives/nurses and physicians being respecvely
1.7, 3.5 and 2.8 per one thousand people. Moreo-
ver, out of health pocket expenditure accounts of
around 57 % of total health expenditure.
3.2 Growth without decent jobs
Growth between 2005 and 2009 was jobless (Ma-
roa et al., 2011b). In fact, employment contributed
negavely to growth during this period, and employ-
ment growth fell sharply from 6.3 in 2007 to 3.6% in
2008. Moreover, the 2008 crisis led to employment
losses in manufacturing (down by 7%) and tourism
(down by 15%). Employment growth partly reco-
vered in 2010 to only low 3.7%. Naturally, unem-
ployment persisted between 8-9% since 2007 and
increased in 2009 to 9.4%. Another disturbing fact
is the quality of jobs. Assaad and Barsoum (2007)
show that in 2005 the proporon of formal jobs for
new entrants dropped to 28% in 2006 from 33% in
the 1970s and the share of informal employment
soared to 72%. In addion, one quarter of total em-
ployment is vulnerable (unpaid family workers and
own-account workers) (UNDP, 2010a). Finally, Ma-
roa et al. (2011b) also showed that the vulnerable
unpaid family workers were the only group that had
the highest exposure to poverty and the highest ab-
solute increase in poverty rates. Moreover, they re-
mained poorer than they were before the crisis.
3.3 Growth was not inclusive of the poor
Maroa et al. (2011b) show that poverty increased
from 19.6 in 2005 to 22% in 2009 and the near poor
(31 million) are esmated at around 40 % of the
populaon (1). Inequality also increased between
2005 and 2008, especially in rural areas (Maroa
et al., 2011a). Another source of vulnerability is the
inequality of opportunies due to predetermined
characteriscs such as gender, parents employment
and educaon, and place of birth which constrains
access to basic public services and vital inputs. Bel-
haj (2010) provides evidence that as much as 30% of
earnings inequality in Egypt in the age cohort of 40-
49 years is due to unequal access to opportunies.
This could thus contribute to social exclusion and to
the persistence of inequality (Elbers et al., 2005 and
Bourguignon et al., 2007).
Maroa et al. (2011b) argue that growth was not
inclusive of the poor because of many factors. First,
inaon harmed the poor: the increase in the cost
of the subsistence food basket (by 47%) cut the real
incomes of the poor and near poor by 20%. Out of
the total change in poverty (+2.46 percentage points)
between 2005 and 2009, food inaon accounted for
a 4% increase, over-powering the poverty reducon
eects of growth (-0.39%) and distribuon (-0.92 %).
Second, the role of fast-growing sectors (manufactu-
ring, transport and communicaons) as a source of
livelihood for the poor actually shrank to less than a
quarter. Third, growth did not occur in sectors with a
large distribuon of poor like agriculture (upon which
40% of the poor rely as a main source of livelihood).
Rather, it occurred as menoned earlier in other sec-
tors (where only 11 % of the poor work). And while
the government seemed preoccupied with why
growth was not trickling down, it did not necessarily
take eecve inclusive measures.

II. Crisis, response and short-term prospects
At the onset of the revoluon and the resulng lack
of security (for a period of 18 days in January and
February 2011) and the closure of banks, the eco-
-113-
nomy came to a sudden halt. Aer the President
stepped down, economic acvity slowly resumed
but is sll below potenal, as security concerns
and polical uncertainty connue. This secon
focuses on the crisis (main transmission channels
and impact) in the third quarter of FY11 and the
governments response.
1. Short-term crisis transmission channels
Aer the revoluon, the recovery of the Egypan eco-
nomy from the 2008 nancial crisis was interrupted.
The short-term impact took place through three main
channels: the business disrupons and a fall in exter-
nal trade, causing employment losses and eventually
leading to an economic contracon. A third channel
is the nancial oulows that occurred.
1.1. Business disrupons and external trade losses
In fact, ocial CAPMAS esmates show losses in
manufacturing, construcon and tourism. All three
sectors account for 39% of value added, 24% of em-
ployment and 40% of investment. In general, Greater
Cairo suered most of the losses (41.2% of value ad-
ded in manufacturing and extracons and 82.7% in
construcon). Losses in the food processing industry
were almost 18% of value added.
Current external balances have come under some
pressure in Q3-FY11, but gures for the overall
FY11 are more posive:
The trade balance contracted to 8.5% of GDP
from 11.5% last year, as a result of a decline in
both earnings of merchandise exports (to 9.7%
of GDP from 11% last year) and imports (to 18%
of GDP from 22%), most of the decline
occurring in non-oil imports (from 20%
to 16% of GDP),
Export services also fell to 8% of GDP
(from 11% last year) following a decline in
both Suez canal and tourism receipts,
The current account to remained in de-
cit but was reduced to 1% of GDP from
2% last year,
By the end of 2010, the recovery of merchandise ex-
ports (both oil and non-oil) from the eects a mued
external demand had been in process. However, the
business disrupons in Q3-FY11 due to the revoluon
exerted a slight pressure on current balances. Despite
a narrowing of the trade decit (to 2.2 from 3% of
GDP), the current account decit widened marginally
(to 0.6% of GDP from 0.4% last year). This was due to
a large contracon in the services surplus, which was
slashed by 50% following a sharp fall in the revenue
of all service exports (except Suez Canal), namely tou-
rism down by close to 35%.
However, gures for the full FY11 show that the trade
balance contracted to 8.5% of GDP from 11.5% last
year, as a result of a decline in both earnings of mer-
chandise exports (to 9.7% of GDP from 11% last year)
and imports (to 18% of GDP from 22%), most of the
decline occurring in non-oil imports (from 20% to 16%
of GDP). Export services also fell to 8% of GDP (from
11% last year) following a decline in both Suez Canal
(to 1.8% of GDP from 2.1%) and tourism receipts (to
3.8% of GDP from 5.3%). Meanwhile, remiances
marginally recovered to 4.5% of GDP from 4.3%. As a
result, the current account decit was reduced to 1%
of GDP in FY11 from 2% in FY10.
One the one hand, tourism (3.5% of value added and
25% of foreign exchange earnings) has suered the fol-
lowing losses aer travel bans were imposed on Egypt:
US$ 178 million in tourism spending aer the
departure of 210 thousands tourists,
US$ 825 million in February alone due to the
cancellaon of trips to Egypt,
LE 70 million in wages of the temporary wor-
kers that were laid o.
Figure 3. External nances
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Trade Balance Net Services
Workers's Remittances CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
Source : Authors calculaons based on Central Bank of Egypts monthly
stascal bullen.
-114-
Several key European countries have recently lied
their travel warning to Egypt. Yet, as security issues
remain a concern, tourist arrivals dropped by 45%
y-o-y and receipts fell by 34% in the period Janua-
ry- March 2011, considered the high season for
tourism. Also, occupancy rates drascally fell from
above 70% before the revoluon to around 23% in
March with an upturn to 40% in August 2011 (IDSC,
2011b). World Bank (2011) report that if tourism
receipts decline 18 percent in during 2011, that
would imply a direct 1.5% of GDP foreign currency
shorall. On the other hand, Suez Canal revenues
have been more resilient. They increased by almost
11% (y-o-y) in FY11 (compared to a contracon of
4% last year but sll less than record growth of
21% in FY08), reaching US$5 billion, reecng the
improved global trade. Rising oil prices have also
rendered alternave marime routes more expen-
sive, especially since the Suez Canal Authority has
decided to leave its transit fees unchanged (for the
third consecuve year) unl the end of 2011.
1.2. Financial oulows with manageable conse-
quences
Financial oulows are expected to connue:
FDI fell by 68%,
Strong short-term capital oulows are likely to
connue occur especially from the t-bills market
(foreigners hold 22%) as uncertainty connues.
Aer it had started its recovery following the 2008
crisis, Egypts nancial account surplus turned into
a decit -1.7% of GDP from 3.8% in FY11. This was
essenally due to a substanal reducon in FDI in-
ows (by more than 67 %) to US$2.2 billion from
US$ 6.7 billion in P, FDI inows fell to 0.8% from
3.1% of GDP. Short-term oulows (US$ 6 billion
alone from the t-bills market) occurred in the aer-
math of the revoluon aer a strong recovery in the
end of the year. As a result, porolio investments
dropped (to -0.9 from 3.6% of GDP last year) and
commercial banks increased their assets abroad
(an oulow of more than 3 percentage points of
GDP). Consequently, the previous balance of pay-
ment surplus turned into a decit of 3.5% of GDP
(US$ 9.7 billion), the highest in at least 20 years.
The Ministry of Finance expects Egypts nancing
needs to increase to around US$11 billion inFY12
(Ministry of Finance, 2011b). The government
already rejected an agreement with the IMF on a
12-month Stand-By Arrangement in the amount of
US$ 3 billion to support the governments econo-
mic program for FY12 (EIU, 2011). A planned loan
with with the World Bank (for US$4.5 billion) to
bridge Egypts nancing needs was also suspened.
Egypts External debt is not high (US$35 billion in
end 2010, and declining as share of GDP, from 15.9
to 14.7%). However, it is unlikely to increase signi-
cantly aer the government external borrowing
plans have been suspended.
The resumpon of short-term ows in 2010 had
contributed to a good performance of the Egypan
Exchange (EE) in 2010, which outperformed many
Middle East stock markets, with the main stock mar-
ket index EGX30 recording a 15% growth. Yet, the
polical developments caused shares to plummet
(by 16%) during the rst few days of the revoluon
(January 26 and 27). As the polical situaon wor-
sened, the EE was closed for 38 days, coming close
to the 40-day grace period aer which it could have
been delisted from the MSCI Emerging Markets In-
dex. When the market reopened, authories instu-
ted provisional regulaons that suspended trading
aer swings of 5% in either direcon. A 10% limit
has also been imposed on daily trading in individual
equies and intraday and margin trading have been
suspended. The market has been on a downward
trend since March 2011, falling by close to 11%
between January and July 2011 but at much quicker
pace in year-on-year terms (-20% in July 2011), with
the index hing the lowest level in almost two years
(4799) in early August 2011 .
By January 27, 2011, reecng polical uncertainty,
Fitch cut Egypts BB+ country ceiling to negave,
a rang armed in late June 2011. And as banks
closed between January 27 and February 6, Moo-
-115-
dys cut its rangs on January 31 on ve
Egypan banks (2) and then shortly aer
downgraded its debt rang by one notch
from Ba1 to Ba2, and also changed its
country outlook from stable to negave.
The rang was further reduced to Ba3 in
March 2011 Similarly, Sandard and Poors
(S&P) downgraded Egypts long-term fo-
reign and local currency rangs to BB and
BB+, respecvely, both with a negave
outlook, a rang armed early July 2011.
Both Moodys and S&P warned that further down-
grades may follow if there is signicant instability.
2. Crisis impact on main macro-balances
2.1. A slowdown in economic acvity
Owing to this business disrupons and the uncer-
tainty of investment and consumpon decisions,
the economy contracted by 4.2% in Q3-FY11 (-
gure 4) but the gure for FY11 remained posive
(1.8% down from 5.1% last year),down from the
5.6% that was originally forecasted. This was the
result of a sharp decline in investment (by 4.4%),
parcularly private investment which went down
to 9% of GDP from 10.5% last year. Growth of pri-
vate consumpon remained posive (up by 4.8%),
similar to last years space. Growth of exports and
imports has remained posive, respecvely 3.7 and
7.5%. A new set of incenves to aract investors
have been announced by the General Authority for
Investment and Free Zones (GAFI) last April inclu-
ding further simplicaon of start-up procedures
and easing of trade procedures. The impact of such
measures is yet to be seen.
On the supply side, most sectors witnessed a
contraction during the quarter when the revol-
ution took place. Tourism recorded the highest
drop (down by -33%), followed by non-oil ma-
nufacturing ( -12%), transportation and storage
(-9.7%), construction (-9%), trade (-9%) and fi-
nance (- 5%), following the closure of banks in
early 2011. However, in FY11, only 3 sectors
posted negative growth rates, tourism (-6% vs.
12% last year), manufacturing (-1% vs. 5%) and
extractions (-0.8% vs. 0.9%). Suez Canal posted
double-digit growth of 11.5%, following a decli-
ne of 3% last year (figure 5).
Taking into account a recovery in the export
market but also the political tensions and se-
curity concerns, projections for 2012 place GDP
growth at 3.7%, up from 1.8% this year. This
outlook reflects a pick-up in both private con-
sumption and investment, following loss of con-
fidence, the business disruptions and the drop
in tourism.
In order to restore growth to potenal, a number
of factors are thus important. First, polical stabi-
lity and security should ensure the recovery of pri-
vate investment. Second, the government needs
to pursue further diversicaon eorts. Oil sll
represents a bit less than a third of value added. In
addion to oil, Suez Canal and tourism, all strongly
impacted by external condions, account for 37 %
of value added (gure 6).
Figure 5. Sectoral growth rates
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Construction & Building Communication
Tourism Non-oil manufacturing
Source : Authors calculaons based on data from MPIC
Figure 4. Contribuon to GDP growth
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1
Contribution to GDP growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
GDP growth
Domestic demand Net exports
Economic growth
Source: Authors calculaons based on data from Ministry of Plan-
ning and Internaonal Coopera-on (MPIC)
-116-
Third, a resumpon of reforms is necessary to ensure
posive TFP growth (Herrera et al., 2011). TFP growth
which responded well to reforms and was posive in
recent years is currently forecasted to experience a
sharp fall to negave levels. There is a high probabi-
lity that the current interim government will suspend
plans for further economic reform and liberalizaon
in order to focus on stabilizing the economy.
2.2. Unemployment soared, particularly in ur-
ban areas
Unemployment in Egypt has been a persistent pro-
blem and has several characteriscs. It is concentra-
ted in urban areas, it is parcularly high for females,
for the young (in the age-cohort of 15-29), especially
graduates. Before the recent polical events, unem-
ployment had been recovering from the eects of the
crisis. It declined to 8.9% in end of 2010, down from
a peak of 9.4 % a year ago, driven by a decrease in
male unemployment (from 5.3 to 4.8%). Meanwhile,
female unemployment had slightly increased (from
21.9 to 22.7%).
As the private sector laid-o many temporary workers
(esmated as much as 49 and 18% in construcon
and manufacturing respecvely) (3) in the wake of
the revoluon, there was a sharp increase in unem-
ployment parcularly for males and in urban areas. In
fact, unemployment went up to close to 12% in FY11
up from 9% a year ago, following a substanal rise
in male unemployment by 3.7 percentage points, to
8.7% while female unemployment remained more or
less the same, around 22% (gure 8). Also, following
the disrupon of producon in urban areas, urban
unemployment (parcularly for males) climbed to
close to 16% up from 11.7% a
year ago. Rural employment
also increased to close to 8.6
% from 6.9 %. More worryin-
gly, there have been some job
losses as employment fell by
2.7% between Q3-FY11 and
Q2-FY11, parcularly male
employment down by 3.8%.
However, such losses seem to
have stabilized by end of FY11, with employment pos-
ng nil growth. Esmates also show that available job
opportunies and private sector hiring have contrac-
ted in June 2011 by 74 and 4% respecvely compared
to a year ago (IDSC, August 2011a).
A further increase in unemployment is expected,
beyond 12% especially if there is a signicant return
of migrants because of the polical contagion in nei-
ghboring countries (parcularly Libya). In parcular,
unemployment in urban areas (12%) is likely to in-
crease following the business disrupons, parcular-
ly in sectors that were hit like manufacturing and to a
lesser extent tourism which account roughly for more
than a h of total employment (gure 8). In fact, the
share of workers in manufacturing in urban areas has
gone down from 17 to 13% of the total labor force.
Figure 7. Unemployment increased sharply
5%
5%
7%
8,7%
23%
25%
24%
19%
23%
21,8%
9%
11%
8,9%
9,4%
9,0%
11,9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jan-
June2011 Male Female Total
Source : Labor Force Sample Survey (LFSS), 2011, CAPMAS
Figure 6. Composion of Value Added
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Other services
Suez Canal and
tourism
Oil and
extractions
Agriculture,
Irrigation &
Fishery
Non-oil
manufacturing
Construction,
communications
and transport
Source: Authors calculaons based on data from Ministry of Planning and Interna-
onal Coopera-on (MPIC)
Figure 8. Employment by sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1-2011
Agriculture & Fishery Manufacturing, electricity & Gas
Construction Telecom & transports
Trade Other
Source : Authors calculaons on CAPMAS data
-117-
Also, informal employment which constutes around
39 % of total employment is likely to increase.
2.3. Food inaon remains high and is a near-
term risk
Doubles-digit inaon has persisted for the past
three years, has been on an upward trend since
November 2010 and currently remains around
10.4% (July 2011) (gure 9). Inaon of food pri-
ces, 40% of the Egypan CPI basket, has been the
main driver of headline inaon and peaked to 30%
in August 2008, and has more recently uctuated
between 18 and 22%. Core inaon has also been
high and has been uctuang around 7-9% since
September 2009 (4). The CBE has refrained from
monetary policy ghtening since September 2009
on the back of receding growth.
CPI inaon is forecasted at 16% as further rounds
of global food price increases are highly probable.
Pressures could be further exacerbated if the ex-
change rate depreciates sharply. Higher inaon
is likely to pose a number of challenges: (i) Create
further social unrest: inaon is parcularly har-
mful to the poor, especially in the absence of an ef-
fecve social protecon system, (ii) exert pressure
on the scal decit as food subsidies are likely to
increase, (iii) require a restricve monetary policy
stance, which may not be consistent with CBEs po-
licy of maintaining economic momentum.
III. Macroeconomic responses
1. Public Finances are worrisome
So far, the budget decit slightly increased to 8.2 from
7.2% of GDP, between July-May 2011 and the same
period last year (gure 10). This occurred following a
substanal decline in revenues from 16 to 14.6% of
GDP. This reects cuts in all revenue items, in par-
cular, property income which decreased from 3 to
2.3% of GDP (following reducons in oil revenues and
rent, both down by 0.6% of GDP). So far, tax revenues
seem to be resilient to the economic downturn (they
account for 11% of GDP, the same level last year).
Meanwhile, expenditure remained close to 23% of
GDP, despite an increase in subsidies and social bene-
ts from 5 to 6% of GDP. In parcular, food subsidies
doubled from 1 to 2% of GDP.
The fiscal response to the crisis is a bit worri-
some. Expansionary measures have been an-
nounced as a reply to rising popular requests.
They include granting a 15% bonus for civil
servants wages and pensions, tax and customs
exemptions; permanently hire temporary civil
450 thousand employees. Meanwhile, subsidies
and social benefits are expected to increase to
around 10% of GDP, following the forecasted in-
crease in international commodity prices. Some
measures to increase revenues in FY11 (new
taxes on capital gains and on tobacco) will not
be enough to offset rising expenditure and also
because of tax revenue losses (the plan to intro-
duce a property tax was put on hold and the cei-
ling for tax exemptions was raised).
Figure 9. Inaon measures in Egypt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY05 FY07 FY09 juil-10 sep-10 nov-10 jan-11 mars-11
Headline Food and beverages Core
Source : Authors calculaons based on CAPMAS and CBE data
Figure 10. Inaon measures in Egypt
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Jul-May
2010
Jul-May
2011
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Taxe revenue Non-tax revenue
interest expenses subsidies and social benefits
other current spending investment spending
fiscal deficit-RHS
Source :Authors calculaons based on data from the Ministry of Finance,
Monthly Financial
-118-
As a result, the decit is expected to increase to
around 10% in FY11 up from an inial forecast of
8%. The Ministry of Finance sll forecasts a de-
cit at around 8%. The army council approved the
FY12 budget envisaging a decit of only 8.6% of
GDP (from a previous forecast of close to 11% of
GDP) but other forecasts put this gure at around
11% of GDP. In any case, the government aims to
reduce the decit to 4% of GDP by FY16. In order to
achieve this, the government has plans to increase
revenues through the introducon of a value-ad-
ded tax, raise taxes on tobacco as well as broaden
the tax base and revise the income tax law (un-
der which taxes are set at a at rate of 20%). The
net budget sector debt is expected to rise. It is
mainly held by banks (40%) in the form of t-bills
(two-thirds). Government credit has already jum-
ped by 30% in March 2011 and further to 37.4%
in May 2011, bringing its share up in total credit
to 49 from 36% during FY06-FY10 (gure 11), at
the expense of private credit, the share of which
declined from 47 to 37% over the same period.
Yet, the banking sector remains liquid with idle
deposits since Egypan banks sll prefer invesng
their deposits in low but safe return of t-bills ins-
tead of engaging in somewhat riskier lending ac-
vies. There is thus room for commercial banks to
give credit to the public sector without necessarily
crowding out the private sector.
Another disturbing fact is the increase in the cost
of government borrowing which suggests an in-
crease in government risk premium to connue
to aract buyers, especially in the absence of an
eecve secondary market. In fact, the 91-day T-
bill rate jumped from an average of 9% before Ja-
nuary 2011 to around 11% in February and 13% in
late April, the highest since 2008. The ten-year go-
vernment bond yield has risen from around
12.9% in late November 2010 to 14.5% in
May 2011. The government also had several
dicules in raising required amounts for
its t-bill aucons since last February, as in-
vestors had demanded higher yields.
The government should be able to idenfy
priories where extra borrowing could be
most eciently spent. More current spen-
ding on budget support (including wages and
other current expenditure) may is not advi-
sable and a revision of the spending compo-
sion is warranted. Fiscal sustainability concerns
should be considered when borrowing new funds
. The economic reform program involves a gradual
reducon of government debt but only as of FY13.
2. Monetary policy response was inially ade-
quate
The CBE seems so far to be managing well the situa-
on. At the beginning of the crisis, it did not impose
ocial capital controls but instuted ght measures in
the banking sector, including restricons on outward
daily transfers and repatriaon of invested funds and
also prohibited the use of LE credit facilies for the
purchase of foreign currency. In addion, the CBE
launched last March a seven-day repurchase agree-
ments (repos) that will allow the CBE to inject market
liquidity without inuencing interest rates. Repos are
issued at an interest rate set at 9.25% and are oered
in exchange for t-bills collateral. It is believed that such
operaons would smulate feeble demand for t-bills
since last February. To give clients more me to repay
their loans, the CBE eased regulaons for booking
provisions on NPLs, extending the period needed to
classify a loan as non-performing to three months (up
from 30 days) aer a payment was due.
Figure 11. Composion of domesc credit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 sep-10 mars-11
Net Claims on Govt. Claims on Public Business Sector
Private Business Sector Household Sector
Source :Authors calculaons based on Central Bank of Egypts
monthly stascal bullen.
-119-
So far, these measures avoided a run on deposits
and there has been no bank liquidity problems
(loan to deposit raos are about 50 %) but several
business reported dicules in moving funds to
branches abroad and in geng approvals for pay-
ments and transfers involving companies currently
under invesgaon or whose shareholders include
high-prole former regime gures.
On exchange management, the CBE has accom-
modated only limited exchange rate depreciaon
and relied mainly on intervenon through foreign
exchange reserves to do so. In fact, the exchange
rate which had already been slipping in early 2011
in response to the polical events in Tunisia came
under pressure during the revoluon. Overall since
late January 2011 unl June 2011, it has depre-
ciated by only 2.4% and has been stable since last
March, due CBE intervenon to prevent excessive
speculave acvity. This stability has been achie-
ved at the expense of a depleon of US$ 11 billion
of ocial reserves between December and August
2011, bringing ocial reserves down to US$ 25
billion, its lowest level in three years, and covering
only 6.2 months of imports. Unocial reserves
(held by commercial banks) also fell by a further
US$7 billion by end of February, bringing the total
loss of reserves to US$ 17 billion.
The exchange rate is likely to come under further
downward pressure, with the sharp drop in all of
Egypts foreign exchange earnings and a worse-
ning of market expectaons due to uncertainty.
The magnitude of the risk is likely to depend on
the CBEs response. Excessive depreciaon is li-
kely to induce large pass-through eects on do-
mesc inaon, especially
that it is occurring in a high
and volale inaon environ-
ment. Increased exchange
rate volality will also harm
Egypts exports. Alterna-
vely, intervenon through
reserves to limit the depre-
ciaon is dependent on the
CBEs stock of foreign exchange reserves. Finally,
imposing capital controls would probably spawn
a revival of black-market trading. A policy mix of
both exchange rate management and some de-
preciaon could be useful way to manage the
exchange rate.
IV. The Challenge of Youth Unemployment
According to 2009 CAPMAS population estima-
tes, 31% of Egyptians are between the ages of
15-29. Moreover, that same group constitutes
62% of the labor force. This youth bulge could
be productive, if it benefits from appropriate
education and health care, and could thus provi-
de Egypt with an opportunity for higher growth
and development. In the meantime, these young
people exert significant pressure on the edu-
cation system, the labor and housing markets
(Assaad and Barsoum, 2007). In particular, they
translated into 850,000 new labor market en-
trants every year in the early 2000s, double the
number in the late 1970s (Assaad, 2007). Never-
theless, youth continue to be disadvantaged in
terms of higher rates of unemployment particu-
larly for higher education graduates, lower ear-
nings, and limited job security and stability, with
the majority of new entrants finding jobs within
the informal economy. This section attempts to
provide an understanding of the youth unem-
ployment problem.
1. Youth have the highest unemployment rate
Recent analyses have indicated that unemployment in
Egypt is largely a problem of youth inseron into the la-
Figure 12. Unemployment by age group, 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
15- 20- 25- 30- 40- 50- 60-
Male Female Total
Source : CAPMAS
-120-
bor market (Assaad, 2007). In fact, youth make up more
than 70% of the unemployed (CAPMAS, 2011). These
are new entrants to the labor market resulng from the
downsizing of the public sector and the limited capacity
of the private sector to generate new jobs.
Moreover, the youth (15-29) also face the highest
unemployment rate (20%), compared to other age
groups (gure 13). The gender gap is also quite no-
ceable with unemployment rates for young
males close to 11% while the gure is a
shocking 46% for females. The age group
of 20-24 years, the age of compleon of
university degrees and, therefore, rst la-
bor market entry, suers from the highest
unemployment rate of 28%. Figure 14 also
shows unemployment of youth (15-24
years) has come down from 35% in 2003
to 25% in 2010.
2. Youth unemployment is a problem of the edu-
cated
Assaad and Barsoum (2007) argue that unemploy-
ment is a problem of educated youth, as their higher
employment expectaons collide with dicult labor
market condions. In fact, in 2010, people with an in-
termediate degree and above accoun-
ted for above 90% of unemployed, of
which university graduates represent
close to 40%. Unemployment rates
remain low (around 3%) for people
with low levels of educaon (below
intermediate), but soar to 13% for
those with an intermediate degree
and are the highest for university gra-
duates (19%) (gure 15).
In fact, unemployment in this group has been stea-
dily increasing since the early 2000s from 12% to
19% in 2010 (gure 16). Assaad (2007) shows that
it is the only group to have experienced an increase
in unemployment between 1998 and 2006. Assaad
and Barsoum (2007) explain that the reason behind
the high educated youth unemployment is related
to government employment policies and educa-
on quality. In fact, as the government guaran-
teed public employment for secondary school and
university graduates for the past three decades,
the educaon system failed to produce high-pro-
ducvity workers that could compete in a market
economy. As a result, returns in the form of higher
wages have dropped signicantly
as youths nd themselves facing an
increasingly privazed labor market
that is not willing to provide pre-
miums for educaonal credenals
if such credenals do not translate
into increased producvity (Assaad
and Barsoum, 2007). Assaad (2009)
argues that the very high unem-
Figure 13. Unemployment of Youth (15-24 years) in Egypt, 2000-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Male Female Total
Source : CAPMAS
Figure 14. Unemployment by educaon level, 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
illiterate Reads &
writes
Below
Intermediate
Intermediate Vocational Secondary
education
University
and above
Female Total Total
Source : CAPMAS
Figure 15. Unemployment of higher educaon graduates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Male female Total
Source : CAPMAS
-121-
ployment rates for educated women is the result
of a dramac contracon in government hiring,
which deterred them from joining the labor force
altogether. Said et al. (2009) also show that the
educated unemployed have experienced the brunt
of the recent economic reforms.
3. Youth tend to have low quality of jobs
The above analysis have shown that youths make
up the largest group among the unemployed but
also are the ones who face the most barriers to
geng jobs. Moreover, recent analysis shows that
this group when employed, they get low-quality, il-
lpaid jobs, making it very dicult for them to start
families (Assaad and Barsoum, 2007 and UNDP,
2010b).
Moreover, UNDP (2010b) shows that there has
been a signicant decline in the probability of ob-
taining either public or private formal employment
for young people. Moreover, the report shows
that there has been a signicant deterioraon in
job quality between 1998 and 2006, in parcular
for workers with basic educaon and technical se-
condary degrees. In fact, the SYPE survey shows
that close to half of employed youth (43%) work
in informal private regular wage jobs, without the
benets of a contract or social insurance. Also, clo-
se to a quarter (22.6%) work in irregular wage jobs,
which, in addion to being informal, are extremely
unstable. In fact, youth seem relegated to instabi-
lity since 46.7% of their jobs are temporary, casual
or seasonal. The survey also shows that only 16%
of employed youths had a legal contract with their
employers and just under 15% of the employed
have social insurance coverage. In terms of ear-
nings, Assaad and Roushdy (2006) show that 69%
of working youths in 2006 are low earners. Inte-
resng evidence is provided by Said et al. (2009)
who show that increased export orientaon exerts
a signicant negave impact on job quality. Also,
industries with the highest import penetraon le-
vels have the lowest job quality, but also saw large
improvements in job quality.
4. Vocaonal training: the skills mismatch
Technical educaon connues to cater to a signicant
proporon of secondary school students, even thou-
gh they have very poor returns in the private sector
and also has a negave impact on wage inequality as
the spread of returns drops for higher educaonal le-
vels (Said et al., 2009). Research has documented that
these schools provide insucient and oen irrelevant
training (El-Hamidi, 2006). Limited public spending on
this essenally expensive type of educaon, lack of
qualied teachers, outdated curricula and a lack of
interacon between rms and those seng the cur-
ricula lead to poor skill acquision and a mismatch
between what these schools provide and the needs
of the labor market. Assaad and Roudi-Fahimi (2007)
note that the educaonal systems in Egypt have been
slow to respond to increasingly market-oriented and
open economies and that this has resulted in signi-
cant mismatches between the skills demanded in the
job market and those available to new entrants. This
mismatch, combined with the rapidly growing num-
ber of entrants, leads to a protracted transion from
school to work.
Furthermore, UNDP (2010b) explains that there does
not exist a technical and vocaonal educaon and
training system for youth in Egypt. However, dierent
players operate in isolaon of each other. Very recent
eorts have been implemented to improve the coor-
dinaon and direcon of all training-related facilies.
Moreover, an acon plan to support technical and vo-
caonal educaon and training (TVET) was claimed to
be in process of formulaon in 2010. In addion, the
UDNP report points to a number of hurdles facing the
TVET system including lack of budget accountability,
obsolete curriculum that mismatch with current mar-
ket needs, lack of hands-on training, failure to keep-
up with technology, shortages of modern specializa-
on, and nancial constraints.
V. Conclusion
The Egypan economy has entered into a period
of uncertainty. The analysis showed that there will
-122-
be short-term costs in the transion phase to more
polical openness. In the long-term, gains from de-
mocracy could put Egypt on a path of sustainable
development. The analysis suggests the following
policy recommendaons.
First, polical certainty and security are crucial pre-
requisites for economic improvements. The SCAF had
issued some laws in this regard but enforcement is
lax. Also, the announcement of a detailed polical
transion road map can help reduce uncertainty but
also build credibility of the polical authories. These
two factors are important for long-term consumpon
and investment decisions but also for the return of
foreign investors and tourists.
Second, the short-term may require some tough po-
licy choices but the management of these short-term
tradeos is determinant of Egypts medium-term
outlook. Immediate challenges are likely to arise
from inaon and the exchange rate. Exchange rate
management needs to become more exible and not
rely solely on reserve depleon. Expansionary scal
policy could have long-term sustainability concerns.
Instead, the government could revise the composi-
on of its public spending in order to smulate the
economy. Public policy could enormously benet
from more transparency to help reassure the public
and also build credibility.
Third, providing incenves could promote private
investment but they should not be exclusive to large
rms. It is also important to phase out such subsidies
in the long-term to make sure they do not lead to
distorons in the labor market. It is also high me to
revise the minimum wage and index it to inaon to
ensure it provides a decent standard of living.
Fourth, there is a pressing need to address the
root causes of the revoluon, i.e. achieve social
inclusion, a fair income distribuon, employment
and educaon to ensure a more just distribuon
of future economic gains. In parcular, promong
employment growth and educaon should be the
top priority to be addressed.
Box. Past eorts to insert the youth in the Labor Market
A number of measures to boost youth employment were
implemented in the past. Many have cricized these in-
tervenons as being short-term and lacking coordinaon
among them and with macroeconomic policies (El-Me-
gharbel, 2007). These policies could be grouped into 4 ca-
tegories:
UNDP (2010) menon that a Naonal Acon Plan on Youth
Employment was prepared and was supposed to be incor-
porated in Egypts ve-year plan with an amount of LE 17
billion. The plan had 3 priories: (i) TVET to increase youth
employment, (ii) Enterprise development to support micro,
small and medium enterprises, and (iii) labor market poli-
cies to acvate minimum wage rule and its enforcement
as well as upgrade employment oces and encourage the
establishment of private recruitment agencies.
Human resource development programmes were aimed at
linking the educaon with the demands of the labor mar-
ket. In this respect, the Mubarak-Kohl iniave aempted
to instuonalize a dual system of training and appren-
ceship in exisng enterprises. The Ministry of Educaon
and enterprise associaons are jointly responsible for
training, managing and nancing training courses. More
than 20,000 students have graduated from this iniave,
of which 85% received immediate job oers. The iniave
was transferred to Egypan partners and is now success-
fully managed and implemented. Another eort is that of
the Naonal Skills Standards Project of Egypts Social Fund
for Development. The framework aims at establishing stan-
dards and procedures for tesng and cerfying trainees. So
far, it has developed standards for around 106 trades and
upgraded around 50 vocaonal training centers.
Direct job generaon projects focused on infrastructure
projects using local resources, local temporary workers and
labor-intensive construcon techniques. The private sector,
the target groups unemployed and NGOs are all involved
in the idencaon of projects, and the target groups are
requested to contribute nancially. The most important
intervenon is the public works programme (PWP) which
aimed at creang short-term and long-term employment
opportunies by establishing public infrastructure projects
-123-
To increase employment, there is a need to design
a naonal employment strategy that targets job-
creaon in the highest employment elascity. Both
macroeconomic and labor market policies should
be aligned with the objecves of the strategy (El-
Megharbel, 2007). At the heart of this plan, youth
employment should be addressed. Employment
iniaves should be accompanied by reforming
the educaon system which is sll heavily based
on memorizaon and repeon rather than cri-
cal and creave thinking. Vocaonal training is also
crucial to facilitate the youth school to work transi-
on and address the educaon-labor market skills
mismatch problem. It is worthwhile to adopt gen-
der-sensive employment policies to increase fe-
male parcipaon rates in the labor market. Also,
it is important to increase awareness of training/
employment programs. Barsoum (2004) show that
young job seekers, especially those who come from
low-income households, lack access to informaon
about available job opportunies, the skills that
are in demand, and training opportunies.
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Central Agency for Public Mobilizaon and Stascs
(CAPMAS) Database. Cairo. www.capmas.gov.eg
Central Bank of Egypt. Monthly Stascal Bullen.
in rural areas. The programme lost some of its prominence
when the social development fund (SFD) established in the
early 1990s entered its second phase, and the emphasis
changed from short-term poverty alleviaon measures to
long-term development eorts.
Finally, support to self-employment and enterprise creaon
projects were carried out through the desert development
programmes directly aimed at unemployed graduates. This
project of desert land culvaon (some 5 acres of land per
unemployed graduate) hoped also to alleviate urban de-
mographic pressures and increase agricultural producon.
Various schemes provided training, credits, cale, housing
and equipment. These programmes have proven to be of
limited success and also a drain on public resources. Gra-
duates had lile sense of ownership since they could only
own the land aer culvang it for 30 years. The period
between graduaon and land assignment was too long
and the lands are situated a long distance from cies. This,
in combinaon with a lack of agricultural experience of
selers, led to sub-opmal use of those lands. Thus, there
has been a shi in favor of large investors, who rely less on
government funding but use capital-intensive and rely on
temporary labor.
Source: (UNDP, 2010b and van Eekelen et al. (2002).
-124-
The Central Bank of Egypt: Cairo. Various issues.
Center for Internaonal Private Enterprise (CIPE).
2009. Business Environment for Small and Me-
dium-Sized Enterprises in Egypt 2009 Survey on
Corrupon. Cairo. CIPE. Available on hp://www.
cipe.org/egyptsurvey/
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). 2011. Egypt
Country ReportThe Economist Intelligence Unit
Limited, London. Various Issues.
_________, 2011. Egypt Country Forecast. The Eco-
nomist Intelligence Unit Limited, London. July.
van Eekelen, Willem; Lorea de Luca and Nagwa
Ismail. Youth Employment in Egypt. InFocus
Programme on Skills, Knowledge and Employa-
bility Skills Working Paper No. 2. Internaonal
Labor Oce, Geneva.
Elbers, Chris, Peter Lanjouw, Johan Mistiaen and
Berk zler. 2005. Re-Interpreting Sub-Group
Inequality Decompositions. World Bank Poli-
cy Research Working Paper 3687. Washington,
D.C.
El-Arabi, Ashraf. 2010. Determinants of the de-
mand on educaon in Egypt. Paper presented
at the Partners in Development Conference.
Cairo.
El-Hamidi, Fatma. 2006. General or Vocaonal?
Evidence on School Choice, Returns, and Sheep
Skin Eects from Egypt 1998. Journal of Econo-
mic Policy Reform 9(2):157-176.
El-Megahrbel, Nihal. 2007. The Impact of Re-
cent Macro and Labor Market Policies on Job
Creation in Egypt. ECES Working Paper Series
123. Cairo.
El-Zanaty, Fatma and Ann Way. 2009. Egypt De-
mographic and Health Survey 2008. Cairo, Egypt:
Ministry of Health, El-Zanaty and Associates, and
Macro Internaonal.
Herrera, Sanago, Hoda Selim, Hoda Youssef, and
Chahir Zaki. 2010. Egypt beyond the Crisis: Me-
dium-Term Challenges for Sustained Growth.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5451.
Washington, D.C.
Information and Decision Support Center.
2011a. Report on Economic and Social Indi-
cators for the Arab Republic of Egypt. August.
Cairo, Information and Decision Support Cen-
ter. Available on: http://www.eip.gov.eg/Pe-
riodicals/Periodicals.aspx?ID=13
_________. 2011b. The Economy during the Cur-
rent Events. August, 7. Cairo, Informaon and
Decision Support Center.
King, Stephen J. 2007. Sustaining Authoritaria-
nism in the Middle East and North Africa. Poli-
cal Science Quarterly 122 (3):433-59.
Maroa, Daniela, Ruslan Yemtsov, Heba El-Laithy,
Hala Abou-Ali, and Sherine Al-Shawarby. 2011a.
Arab Republic of Egypt Poverty in Egypt 2008-09:
Withstanding the Global Economic Crisis. The World
Bank. Mimeo.
_________,2011b. Was growth in Egypt between
2005 and 2008 pro-poor? From stac to dyna-
mic poverty prole. World Bank Policy Research
Working Paper 5589. Washington, D.C.
Ministry of Finance. 2011a. Budget Proposal
2011/2012. Cairo, Ministry of Finance.
_________,2011b. Egypts Economic Programme.
Cairo: Ministry of Finance. Ministry of Planning and
Internaonal Cooperaon Database. Cairo, Egypt.
Populaon Council. 2010. Survey of Young People in
Egypt 2010. Cairo, the Populaon Council. hp://
www.popcouncil.org/projects/SYPE/index.asp
Said, Mona, John Salevurakis, Chrisian Schulter,
Jackline Wahba, and Sherine Al Azzawi. 2008.
Unemployment, Job Quality and Labour Market
Stracaon in the MED Region. FEMISE 2008
Annual Conference Proceedings. Marseille: FE-
MISE Associaon, Instut de la Mditerrane.
Trends in Internaonal Mathemacs and Science
Study (TIMSS). 2008. TIMSS 2007 Internaonal
Mathemacs Report. Boston: TIMSS & PIRLS In-
ternaonal Study Center.
Trends in Internaonal Mathemacs and Science
Study (TIMSS). 2008. TIMSS 2007 Internaonal
Science Report. Boston: TIMSS & PIRLS Interna-
onal Study Center.
Transparency Internaonal. 2010. Transparency
Internaonal Annual Report 2010. Berlin: Trans-
parency Internaonal.
United Naons Development Program (UNDP).
2010a. The Real Wealth of Naons: Pathways to
-125-
Human Development: Human Development Re-
port. New York: UNDP.
_________,2010b. Egypt Human Development
Report 2010 Youth in Egypt: Building our Future.
Cairo: UNDP and the Instute of Naonal Planning,
Egypt.
World Bank. 2011. World Bank Middle East and
North Africa Region Regional Economic Update:
MENA Facing Challenges and Opportunies. The
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
________. 2009. From Privilege to Compeon:
Unlocking Private-Led Growth in the Middle East
and North Africa. MENA Development Report.
Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Bank governance indicators database.
Notes:
1. Households with consumpon below the lower
poverty line (LE 2216 (USD 395)) are deemed poor,
and those below the upper poverty line (LE 2806
(USD 500)) comprise the near poor (Maroa et al.,
2009a).
2. These banks are: Naonal Bank of Egypt, Banque
Misr, Banque du Caire, Commercial Internaonal
Bank, and Bank of Alexandria.
3. These gures are for 2005/06, the latest availa-
ble from CAPMAS.
4. Excludes fruits and vegetables and some regu-
lated items.
-126-
-127- -127-
ISRAEL : A developed country model that sll has
room for improvement from a social perspecve
When benchmarked against most Mediterra-
nean economies, Israel is among the closest to
democracy. Because of this, the recent uprisings
in its neighbours are not expected to spread do-
mestically. Nonetheless, the situation is not opti-
mal and there are always threats for the political
model.
First, despite democracy, the Israeli regime is not
the most stable from a polical point of view (Ofer,
2008). The electoral system favors the creaon of
frail coalions that may cease to exist aer the vo-
ng period (Bain, 2011). Furthermore, the external
relaons of Israel with its neighbours could enter
a period of tension if countries of the uprisings do
not move towards a more democrac regime. Ad-
dionally, issues of corrupon among policians
have erupted and there is a rising risk for elected
ocials to be more disconnected to constuents.
Moreover, most of Israels governance scores have
worsened during the last decade.
Meanwhile, the Israeli regime of growth is sll im-
perfect in terms of inequalies. When compared to
the average of OECD countries inequalies in Israel
are higher by 22%, meanwhile the eciency of the
authories intervenon in reducing them has be-
come quesonnable (Naonal Insurance Instute,
2010). Several communies are in need of inia-
ves to improve infrastructure the lack of which
pushes them deeper into poverty (Abu-Bader and
Gotlied, 2009). All of this has contributed in brin-
ging Israel among the top-5 of the most unequal
developed countries.
The Israeli economy, did manage to bounce back
from the ouall of the 2008 crisis despite being
among the worst hit. Now, aer a solid economic
performance throughout the 2000s, Israel needs
to adopt measures that lead to economic growth
beneng the enre populaon. Among its priori-
es should be to ght poverty, with already 35.9%
of children in 2007 living under the poverty line.
Adopng a new vocaonal training model and es-
tablishing a central authority for coordinaon of
youth programs and strategies could be of valuable
help (Nathanson et al, 2010) .
In the current state of aairs, the following macroe-
conomic elements deserve parcular aenon :
Growth, which recovered and reached a
4.8% rate in 2010, is expected to grow by 4.3% for
2011, boosted by rising exports, solid investment
perspecves and private consumpon growth.
The unemployment rate reached an all-
me low at barely 5.8% in April 2011 according
to ocial stascs, which corresponds to 186000
unemployed, despite the high rate of growth of the
Israeli labour force.
Despite a recent rise, inaon is expected
to be close to 3.4% in the following 12 months.
Exports have not been aected by the
regional turmoil, goods exports rose by 12.9%
between August 2010 and August2011 and an in-
crease by 12.2% is to be expected for the enre
year.
However, following the rise in interna-
onal prices, goods imports (excluding diamonds)
recorded a year-on-year rise of 25.8% during the
February-April 2011 period. They are expected to
grow by an esmated 21.7% in 2011 adding pres-
sures to the current account, reducing its surplus
to 1.2% of GDP.
FDI inows have been narrowing in recent
months, the country received 206 million of FDI in
May 2011, a 53% decrease from April 2011 (442
million US$), while an FDI fall of 11.5% is expected
for the enre year.
In light of a recent rise in tax revenues,
the scal decit is expected to reach 2.4% of GDP,
from -3.7% the prior year, a threshold that is no-
netheless higher than the target of 1.5% that was
inially set.
Finally, monetary policy is expected to be -
ghtened in the coming years (2013-2015 period) with
a policy rate close to the 4.5%- 5% mark.
-128- -128-
I. The current situaon and its implicaons
1. The state of the polical economy model
The polical model in Israel is considered to be the
most democrac in a region that is mostly ruled by
autocrac regimes. Even so, the regional turmoil
and its polical consequences in countries such
as Egypt are of great interest to Israel, a polical
change in one or more of its neighbours could si-
gnify a change in the Mediterranean polical lands-
cape, regional eorts to democracy could mean
more stability, while falling back to a more closed
regime in neighbouring MPs could translate into
rising geo-polical tensions.
Israel is entering this new polical era with an eco-
nomy that is growing and aracng labor migrants,
one could thus say that the country is in a posion
of strength (Haaretz, 2011a). But, one must not
forget that the polical outlook is greatly interre-
lated with the countrys posions regarding the
evoluon of the progress for peace with the Pales-
nian. The Israeli government and the populaon
are increasingly inclined to realize that an iniave
is of great need, with the major emerging soluon
being to upgrade the Peace Agreement, recogni-
zing Palesne as an independent state within the
borders of the Oslo Accords (Haaretz, 2011a).
2. Polical instability is always of concern
Polical tensions are also common within the
country itself, a fact that can be explained by the
nature of the vong system which can result in
frail coalions. For instance, the current coalion
requires the support of a great number of smaller
pares with views that do not always converge,
currently, the government only controls 66 seats
out of the 120 total.
The domesc polical model is a case apart among
Mediterranean economies. As suggested by Ofer
(2008), although Israel maintains a stable regime,
the laer is not considered as being polically sta-
ble since elecons take place frequently and go-
vernments do not last long enough. The state is go-
verned by a parliamentary democracy, with a 120
member legislave assembly (Knesset). In the early
1990s, the two-ballot system was introduced, accor-
ding to which each cizen was eligible to vote twice:
once to elect the prime minister and once to elect
the party of choice. Legislators are elected through
a state-wide system in which the country is repre-
sented as a single electoral district. A vong list may
contain members of more than a single party, thus,
smaller polical pares oen run on a single com-
bined list with one or more other pares. Further-
more, aer elecons are over, these coallions may
cease to exist within the Knesset (Bain, 2011). Thus,
voters send several small pares into the Knesset
represenng narrow interest groups, impeding on
major pares shaered and paralyzing the polical
system (The Jewish Chronicle, 2009).
Furthermore, the lack of considerable party dis-
cipline, frequent reshuing of ministers, and
unstable coalions contribute to the frail polical
stability and highlight the importance of introdu-
cing structural changes in the parliamentary model
(The Jewish Chronicle, 2009).
3. Polical stability and corrupon should be key
elements of polical reform
What results from the current state of aairs is that
Israel would gain a lot by polical reforms that fa-
vor polical stability. It clearly appears from gure
2 that the polical stability index has deteriorated
Figure 1. Israel on the world J-Curve (2010)
Israel
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stability
Democracy
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indi-
cator, Index of Democracy
-129-
in the recent decade reaching a level close to bad
governance.
Meanwhile, one should also note that while most
of Israels governance scores are posive they have
mostly worsened during the last decade. More spe-
cically, control of corrupon appears to have worse-
ned, the country ranks among the most corrupt coun-
tries when compared to other OECD members states,
it now has a score of 6.1 out of 10 in the Corrupon
Percepons Index (CPI), a marked deterioraon from
th 7.9 score of 1997, ranking Israel 22nd out of 33
members of the OECD (Internaonal Transparency
Organizaon).
It appears that policians have not priorized the
corrupon issue, with discussions not being enough
to put an end to this phenomenon (Haaretz, 2010).
One could nd that the root of corrupon is the
heavy emphasis on materialism and capitalism
with the list of corrupon invesgaons in Israel in
recent years including several prime ministers, pre-
sidents and Cabinet ministers (Los Angeles Times,
2010). Meanwhile, not having direct elecons means
that there is a need for policians to nd favor with
their party and give out favors with elected ocials
feeling less beholden to constuents and more
disconnected.
Recent allegaons against foreign minister Lieber-
man on the transfer of millions of shekels to shell
companies and accounts (Guardian.co.uk, 2011) of
people close to him show how crucial it is for Israeli
authories to tackle the maer imminently. Introdu-
cing reforms in the electoral system and strengthe-
ning cohesiveness within polical pares would thus
seem to among the pre-requisites needed to improve
the governing of Israel.
4. The state of Israels growth model
Growth that favors human development and provi-
des opmism...
The human development level of Israel has reached
new heights, the country climbed 12 places in the
latest Human Development Index (HDI) and reached
15th place worldwide, the highest rank ever obtained
for the country, surpassing developed EU naons
such as Italy and Britain.
Surprisingly, while improvements in HDI reduce a
countrys total ferlity rate (Callender, 2011) this
appears to not have been the case in Israel. Indeed,
Israels ferlity rate is the highest among developed
countries, it reached 2.96 in 2009. Meanwhile, the
country has the 6th lowest maternal mortality rate,
and the 19th lowest infant mortality rate across the
world (DellaPergola, 2011).
As noted by DellaPergola (2011), one should consider
the persisng centrality of children in the hopes
of the Israeli populaon and the existence of a reci-
procal relaonship between the presence of children
and a widespread sense of opmism . Meanwhile,
according to the naonal social survey of 2008, 87%
of Israels Jews and 83% of Israels Arabs appear sas-
ed with their own lives and more than half believe
that their lives will improve.
...but growth not always inclusive of the poor
The following gure suggests that, theorecally, the
Israeli regime of economic growth is a rare excepon
in the Mediterranean since it allows for the reducon
of inequalies. An increase in GDP per capita can de-
crease inequalies domescally with a distribuon
of wealth that may favor poorer deciles of the po-
pulaon. Contrary to the rest of the region, Israel is
past from the p-over point aer which the growth
Figure 2. Israels Governance Indicators
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Voice &
Accountability
Political Stability
No Violence
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
Source : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note : Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
-130-
eect alone can reduce inequalies. Nevertheless,
with a Gini coecient of 0.37, Israel is in the top-5 of
the most unequal countries in the developed world
(BusinessInsider, 2011). When benchmarked against
OECD countries, the Gini index is higher in Israel by
approximately 22%. It appears that, over me, pu-
blic intervenon has decreased the eciency of di-
rect intervenon in reducing inequalies (Naonal
Insurance Instute, 2010). In 2009, the poverty rate
increased to 20.5% which is three percentage points
higher than it was in 2000. This was in great part a
result of the budget cuts made in social security pay-
ments during the crisis period of the second infadah
; since then the poverty rate has not returned to its
prior levels (AdvaCenter, 2010).
Thus, as in the rest of the region, economic
growth did not always materialize into equal dis-
tribution and benefits for the entire population.
As highlighted by FEMISE (2009), gender inequali-
ties and discriminations towards Arab and ortho-
dox Jewish communities remain. As noted by the
National Insurance Institute (2010), the poorest
in Israel are among the ultra-Orthodox and Arabs
in Jerusalem and the South, with the proportion
of ultra-Orthodox among the poorest population
being 3.6 times the proportion among the entire
population. The socio-economic situation of the
Arab population in Israel is worrying, the econo-
mic and social conditions that it faces are largely
inferior to those of the Jewish society (Abu-Ba-
der and Gotlied, 2009). Over a nine-year period,
the severity of poverty among Arabs increased
and was on average three times higher than in
the Jewish (non-ultra-orthodox) sector. The pro-
bability of living in poverty for the Israeli-Arabs is
explained by traditionnal variables such as gaps
in education, family size and the low number of
income earners. But it is also explained by the
lack of access to public infrastructure, especially
in public transportation, which barely exists for
Arab communities and affects them directly since
they have a low rate of car-ownership. Thus, lack
of initiatives to improve infrastructure for these
communities pushes them deeper into poverty
and lowers their participation in the labor mar-
ket even more (Abu-Bader and Gotlied, 2009).
Moreover, most of the immigrants and other
Jews (that are not qualified as immigrants or ul-
tra-Orthodox) are in the middle and upper thirds
of the poor income range (National Insurance
Institute, 2010). There is also a high incidence of
poverty among children (approximately 35% of
them are under the poverty line) when focusing
in the Haredi and minority sectors (Prime Minis-
ters Office, 2007). Meanwhile, having a job is
not an effective protection against poverty in Is-
rael since wages are insufficient to raise workers,
especially in low-productivity sectors, above the
poverty line. The share of temporarily poor fa-
milies increased in recent years, a fact that could
be linked to the international crisis that has a
direct impact on the domestic labor and asset
market. The later was hit through the deteriora-
ting economic situation of families usually posi-
Figure 4. Poverty Rate among Families in Israel, 2000-2009,
aer direct taxes and transfer payments, in percentages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Overall poverty rate Arab families
Jewish families
Source : AdvaCenter (2010)
Figure. 3 Israel on Kuznetss regional curve
14792 US$
GDP / capita
Inequalies
Sources : FEMISE calculaons based on EHII inequality
database and WDI 2010
-131-
tionned at the brink of the poverty line (National
Insurance Institute, 2010). There is thus clear
need for social policies that better target those
in need.
II. Short-term prospects
1. Real sector relavely unscathed
The domesc real sector has been le relavely
unaected by recent events in the region, with the
excepon of FDI that is expected to fall in the cur-
rent year. One observes :
An esmated increase in goods exports by 12.2%,
A 21.7% increase in goods imports,
A trade balance (excluding diamonds) in de-
cit, at -5.7 billion US$ in January-April 2011,
versus -2.3 billion US$ in the corresponding pe-
riod of 2010.
A resilient service balance marking an esmated
6.1% increase to 7bn US$ in 2011,
A current account surplus that is reduced to
0.4% of GDP in 2011,
The Israeli export sector does not appear affec-
ted by the regional turmoil. Exports have been
on the rise, fueled by solid performances of the
manufacturing and diamond sectors. In August
2011 the former had recorded an 12.2% year-on-
year real increase while exports of polished dia-
monds would showcase a 41.8% increase during
the same period (Central Bureau of Statistics).
Thus, goods exports rose by 12.9% between
August 2010 and August2011 and an increase by
12.2% in exports is to be expected for the entire
year (EIU).
However, following the rise in internaonal pri-
ces, imports grew as well. According to the Cen-
tral Bureau of Stascs, a year-on-year rise in
goods imports of 12.4% was recorded in August
2011. It appears imports from EU countries grew
by 29.2%, at an annual rate, during the same
period. Meanwhile, imports from USA did so by
16% and imports from Asian Countries by 11.6%
(Central Bureau of Stascs) .Thus, imports are
expected to grow by an esmated 21.7% in 2011
reaching a value of 70.6 bn US$ adding pressu-
res to the trade balance and consequently the
current account (EIU). The trade balance (exclu-
ding diamonds, ships and aircras) showcases an
increasing in decit, at -6.7million NIS in August
2011, versus -4.3 million NIS in the corresponding
period of 2010 (Central Bureau of Stascs). The
decit is esmated to aain the -8.1bn US$ mark
by end 2011 (EIU).
Meanwhile, the service ba-
lance remained resilient and
is expected to mark an 6.1%
rise to 7bn US$ in 2011. This
can be explained by a sur-
prisingly resilient tourism
industry, with the number
of tourists vising Israel re-
maining stable. Aer the
revoluons erupted in early
2011 the impact on Israeli
Figure 5. Exports, by Commodity Group, million US$
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
2010-
08
2010-
09
2010-
10
2010-
11
2010-
12
2011-
01
2011-
02
2011-
03
2011-
04
2011-
05
2011-
06
2011-
07
2011-
08
Returned exports Used ships and aircraft Rough diamonds
Polished diamonds Other Manufacturing
Agricultural
Source : Central Bureau of Stascs
Figure 6. Israels trade balance (% of GDP)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : EIU
-132-
tourism was small at best, with overall trac to Is-
rael registering a 2% year-on-year fall in February,
to 218000 tourist entries. Sll, the number of tra-
velers vising the country alone had grown by 10%
(Haaretz, 2011b). Furthermore, in recent months,
tourism in Israel keeps on growing. In May 2011,
about 308000 visitors arrived in the country, which
corresponds to a 5% year-on-year increase and a
33% surge compared to May 2009 (TheJerusalem-
Post, 2011). In August 2011, tourist arrivals by air
had fallen but very slightly (-0.57%) compared to
August 2010 (CBS).
The rise in the import bll signies that the current
account surplus is expected to be reduced to 0.4%
of GDP in 2011 (EIU).
2. A nancial sector witnessing a fall in FDI and
the stock-market
2.1 Foreign Direct Investment fall following intro-
ducon of capital controls
The year 2010 saw Israel increase its inflows
of foreign direct investment by roughly 18%.
Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2011 FDI grew
quarterly by 7.25%. In early 2011, Israel amen-
ded its Law for the Encouragement of Capital
Investments which could improve the Israeli
industrys competitiveness in international mar-
kets and encourage FDI.
One should note there was a policy change on
the behalf of the Bank of Israel, the latter trying
to impose capital controls on disruptive foreign
investment. More specifically, the Central Bank
now imposes reserve requirements on domestic
banks engaged in currency swap transactions.
Meanwhile, the finance ministry abolished the
exemption hitherto granted to foreign capital
investors on the 15% income tax levied on inte-
rest paid on makam (EIU, 2011).
But, amendments include reduced company tax
rates for preferred income derived by a pre-
ferred enterprise of a preferred company
(Global Finance, 2011)
2.2 Stock Market aected by regional events
Before the revoluons, the Israeli stock-market en-
joyed healthy fundamentals, a solid banking system
and performed well in terms of producvity. As a re-
sult, it grew by an impressive 88% and 15% respec-
vely in 2009 and 2010 (TheStreet, 2011). The Tel-Aviv
stock exchange (TASE) is considered as one of the
largest in the region, with a market capitalisaon of
$217bn and 613 lisngs (EFinancialNews, 2011). In
early 2011 eorts were also iniated to encourage
Israeli-Arab rms to list on the Israeli exchange since
the current lisng did not comprise any Arab compa-
nies. The laer have also been usually reluctant to
raise funds through the Israeli capital market.
But, recent geopolitical events have a direct ef-
fect on the domestic stock-exchange. As in other
MPs not directly affected by the upheavals, the
stock-market went on a downward path during
March 2011 an indication of the general worry
of investors towards the politically tense region.
The Tel Aviv 100 Index stood at a value of 1233
in February 16th and marked a 7.4% fall in one
month to reach an index value of 1135 in March
15th. It managed to regain its value in a short pe-
Table 1. Nonresident Investment in Israel (net transacons, million US$)
2010 q2 2010 q3 2010 q4 2011 q1 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011
Nonresident Investment 2071 3727 6891 5148
Direct Investment -218 1650 2426 2602
of which: through banking 1017 819 1073 1160 631 442 206
Porolio investment 633 322 4349 1698 -1267 -655 -198
Other 1656 1755 116 848
Source : Bank of Israel
-133-
riod of time climbing back to 1221 in April 21st
but only to fall by 10.9% in the following two
months to reach a value of 1088 in June 26th
(Bloomberg). Overall, the index fell by 9% in Ja-
nuary-September 2011 (Globes, 2011).
Meanwhile, a state of prolonged instability is loo-
ming and every regional event translates into a do-
mesc shake-up. The latest exemple could be found
in the announcement of the Egypan gas pipeline
explosion which in July 4th brought a decline in Lam-
balle company by 85% and a loss of 1 billion US$ and
severe consequences for power investors (Youm7,
2011). Overall, investors are clearly aected by what
is happening in the South Mediterranean region and
worry if the trends will expand into other MPs, as it
happened from Tunisia to Egypt.
2.3 Foreign Reserves are sll ample and Debt Indi-
cators are posive
Foreign currency reserves had slightly fallen to
9.1% months of imports in 2010 from 9.3 months
in 2009. Still, they remained ample, only equaled
by those of Jordan in months of imports value
and surpassed by Algeria. A growth rate expected
to be above 4% in 2011, the continuous increase
in exports and a tourism sector expected to per-
form well are expected to bring the import-cover
ratio to approximately 10 months in 2011.

Regarding Israeli debt indicators, preliminary -
gures for 2011 suggest external debt will stand
at 107.9bn US$, which corresponds to a 1.7% in-
crease in absolute terms from the 106.1bn US$ in
2010 but, an important decrease in percentage of
GDP from 48.7% in 2010 to 43.7% in 2011. Thus,
Israel is expected to manage to reduce its debt
even below the pre-crisis level of 2008 (of 43.8%)
and could bring it closer to the 40% threshold
by 2013. As for the debt service rao, it stood at
12% in 2010, down from 12.9% in 2009, with fo-
recasts poinng towards a slight increase in the
short-run, to an ancipated 12.3% in 2011 and a
fall to 11.6% in 2012.
2.4 A strengthened shekel vis--vis the US$ in 2011
The Israeli shekel appreciated by more than 5% vis-
-vis the US dollar in the rst 4 months of 2011,
driven by the widening interest-rate dierenal
between Israel and developed economies and re-
mained unaected by regional events.
The currency appreciated by 12.4% against the dollar
over the past year, however, it depreciated in May
2011 following the halt in interest rates, which have
risen 10 mes in the last 2 years, reducing the de-
mand of investors for the domesc currency (Bloom-
berg). The stronger currency has increased the trade
decit and could slow down growth (to an annuali-
zed 4.8% in the rst quarter of 2011 from 7.6% in the
previous three months). Thus, to reduce the appre-
ciaon pressures, domesc authories have introdu-
ced, among others, a 10% reserve requirement on
the domesc banking sectors derivave transacons
with non-Israeli residents. More recently, the shekel
has weakened against both major currencies and the
average exchange rate of 1 NIS versus the US$ is an-
cipated at 3.53 in 2011 (versus 3.73 in 2010) while
versus the euro it is ancipated at 4.97 (versus 4.95
for 2010) (EIU).
Figure 7. Debt Indicators in Israel, % on GDP in parenthesis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total external debt (US$ bn) Debt-service ratio, paid (%)
(59,5%)
(53,5%) (43,8%)
(47,9%)
(48,7%)
(43,7%)
(42,7%)
Source : EIU
Figure 8. Exchange rate NIS:US$ (av)
3
3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4
4,2
4,4
2009-
1
2009-
4
2009-
7
2009-
10
2010-
1
2010-
4
2010-
7
2010-
10
2011-
1
2011-
4
2011-
7
Source : EIU
-134-
III. Economic Policy and Macro expectaons
1. Main developments
1.1 Economic acvity remains solid
As was expected, acvity in 2010 recovered and rea-
ched a 4.8% rate of growth on-par with the pre-inter-
naonal crisis rates of growth. As for 2011, real GDP
increased by 8.8% year on year in the rst quarter, by
5.2% in the second quarter (CBS) and is expected to
grow by 4.3% for the enre year (EIU).
Growth will be boosted by rising exports, solid in-
vestment and private consumpon growth. Regar-
ding the laer, income tax rate cuts and reducon
in unemployment allow for private consumpon
growth to remain resilient, expected at 4.2% in
2011. Meanwhile, provided polical stability and
security is ensured, private investment should main-
tain growth to its current potenal. But one
must note that during the past decade, in-
vestments were concentrated in a handful of
sectors only. During the 2000-2009 period, hi-
tech aracted most investments, growing by
an average annual rate of 8%, with the capital
stock of the hi-tech sector in 2009 being the
double of what it was in 2000. Meanwhile,
in the low-tech sector, the average annual
rate of growth was only of 2% and the capi-
tal stock grew by only 19% in the 2000-2009 period
(AdvaCenter, 2010). The government thus needs to
pursue diversicaon eorts that would be of great
contribuon to the growth regime. Investment is ex-
pected to fuel growth, growing by a further 10% in
2011 following a 13.2% the prior year, in large part
owing to natural gas exploitaon, construcon and
the high-tech sector. As for exports, roughly repre-
senng 40% of Israeli GDP, export performance in
Asian markets should cover-up from the mid per-
formance in developed partners markets (EIU).
Regarding the sector-specic composion of growth,
the rate of growth in Israel follows the development
of the service sector which roughly represents three
quarters of domesc GNP. Commercial, nancial &
personal services represent roughly 31% of GNP and
employ more than a third of the labor force, while pu-
blic services amount to a quarter of GNP, employing
about 34% of Israelis (Central Bureau of Sta-
scs). The service sector is expected to grow
by 4.4% in 2011 fueling domesc GDP growth.
As for the industry sector, represenng more
than 20% of GNP, recent trends suggest it
could grow by as much in 2011. While the
sector has a lesser contribuon to domesc
producon, one should note that it repre-
sents about three quarters of Israeli exports,
primarily due to a fast growth rate (averaging
8% annually in recent years) in the hi-tech sec-
tors (Israeli Ministry of Foreign Aairs, 2010).
Some argue that the Israeli ICT sector is too
export-oriented which means that most lo-
cal industries do not enjoy the fruits from
the ICT-producing sector (Lach et al, 2008).
Figure 11. Sector specic origin of GDP
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Agriculture Industry Services GDP Per capita GDP
Source : EIU
Figure 10. Decomposing ressources, quarterly data, billion US$
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2010- Q1 2010- Q2 2010- Q3 2010- Q4 2011- Q1
Net exports (goods & services)
GFCF, Industries
GFCF, Residential
buildings
Collective gov. Final consumption
Individual
gov. consumption
Private
consumption
Source : CBS
Figure 9. Decomposing demand, annual variaon of expenditure to GDP
5,5
4,0
0,8
4,3
2,8
1,4
5,3
4,2
3,3
1,7 1,8
2,5
14,5
4,4
-4,9
13,7
10,0
9,3
6,0
-11,9
13,6
5,8
11,9
2,2
-14
12,8
10,2
4,8
6,4
2,4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Exports Imports
Source : EIU
-135-
Meanwhile, the non- ICT sectors appear to not be
lagging compared to the rest of the world regarding
research and develpment (R&D).
As noted by Lach et al (2008), the Israeli economy ap-
pears to be a dual economy in the making. Thus,
reforms that facilitate the adopon of ICT in more
tradional industries could allow for more balanced
growth. Naturally, this could also ensure higher rates
of producvity by allowing beer performance in the
non-ICT economy.
1.2 Unemployment reaching all-me low
As seen by the evoluon of employment gures in
recent decades, the Israeli growth model has allowed
for levels of unemployment that are very low, the
lowest among Mediterranean countries. The inter-
naonal crisis fallout brought the unemployment -
gure to 7.5% in the year 2009, even so, the trend was
ephemeral and unemployment fell to 6.7% in 2010.
It appears that the downward path continued
in the first months of 2011, indeed the unem-
ployment rate already reached an all-time low
at barely 5.8% in April 2011 according to official
statistics, which corresponds to 186000 unem-
ployed. This figure is even more impressive con-
sidering the high rate of growth of the Israeli
labour force which reached 3.9% and 2.4% res-
pectively in 2009 and 2010 (EIU).
Despite a rate of unemployment reaching his-
torical lows in 2011 one should note that a lot
needs to be done to improve job conditions. For
instance, Israels average salary is low, about
60% of employees earn less than 75% of the na-
tional average salary, while 40% earn less than
half (The Association for Civil Rights in Israel,
2011). During the first quarter of 2011, the no-
minal wage increased by 0.8% compared with
the previous three months, but the real wage fell
by 0.9%. Moreover, the minimum wage is expec-
ted to increase from a monthly NIS 3,900 to NIS
4,100 starting from July (Central Bank of Israel).
Meanwhile, a gender gap persists since women
earn 63% of the average salary of men. Unem-
ployment insurance is also among the poorest in
the developed world, in 2010, only 25% of the
non-working population was eligible for unem-
ployment benefits. Last but not least, cuts in
professional training expenses appear to have
translated into a lack of public professional trai-
ning programs (The Association for Civil Rights in
Israel, 2011).
1.3 Low inflation but on the rise following in-
creasing housing prices
Inflation in Israel has traditionally been among
the lowest in the recent decade throughout the
Figure 12. TFP growth in Israel
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : EIU
Box. Unemployment facts
Unemployment in Israel has a series of specic characte-
riscs. Primarily it:
Aects Arab localies more than Jewish ones,
is higher in Jewish development towns than in af-
uent towns,
is higher among Arab women,
aects those without basic educaon,
hits young people who are relavely new entrants
into the domesc labor market.
Let it be noted that one is considered unemployed only
when registered with the Government Employment Ser-
vices. But, many jobless do not register for personal or
praccal reasons (lack of employment oces), which
means that the actual number of the unemployed is hi-
gher than that of ocial stascs.
Source : AdvaCenter 2010
-136-
region. After reaching 2.7% in 2010, it went off
target in the early months of 2011. The rise in
housing prices appears to have an impact on the
consumer price index through the rental com-
ponent of the index (EIU). Meanwhile, higher oil
and commodity prices have increased imported
inflation (EIU). Annual inflation had reached 4.1%
in May but is expected to ease to roughly 3.4% in
the following 12 months (Reuters, 2011).
2. Macroeconomic responses
2.1 Public nances are not worrisome but regio-
nal uncertainty could increase defence spending
in the short-run
Contrary to the majority of MPs who are seeing
their scal decit considerably increase in 2011,
the budget decit in Israel is relavely contained.
This is in part due to a rising trend on the revenue
side, with direct taxes and indirect taxes on do-
mesc producon, represenng a combined 90%
of public revenues, respecvely rising by 6.9% and
5.6% between July 2010 and July 2011. Meanwhile,
taxes on civilian imports increased by 3.51% while
transfer payments fell by 6.7% during the same pe-
riod (Central Bank of Israel).
The scal stance in a climate of regional uncertainty
should be a cauous one. Due to the uncertainty
from geopolical changes authoriies might have
to avoid aggravang the scal balance in the coming
years. The defence spending in Israel is expected to
increase, taking into account that it already rose rose
by an annual average of 2 billion NIS in recent years
(from 51 billion NIS in 2005 to 61 billion in 2010)
while it exceeded the original budget. Based on cur-
rent decisions that have been undertaken, the decit
could reach 2.4% of GDP, from -3.7% the prior year, a
threshold that is nonetheless higher than the target
of 1.5% that was inially set.
Furthermore, civilian spending is relavely low
compared to OECD economies, the need for inves-
ng in educaon is sll existent, thus, the degrees
of freedom for future policies are rather limited,
especially considering that a downward progres-
sion in future income tax rates for individuals and
companies has been set by authories (Central
Bank of Israel). Thus, the rate of growth will have
to remain above 5% a year for decit targets to be
respected in the coming years.
2.2 Monetary policy that closely monitors inter-
naonal developments
The Bank of Israel is following a policy consistent
with the process of gradually restoring a more nor-
mal interest rate environment that seeks to stabi-
lize inaon and support further economic growth all
the while maintaining nancial stability
(Bank of Israel).
Interest rates were rst raised by a
cumulave 275 basis points to 3.25%,
since the ghtening cycle started to
take eect in September 2009. Joint
measures with the Ministry of Finan-
ce were taken regarding the housing
market, meanwhile, the shekel appre-
Figure 14. Budget Balance (% of GDP)
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : EIU
Figure 13. Tax revenues and transfer payments from the public (NIS million)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010-4 2010-6 2010-8 2010-10 2010-12 2011-2 2011-4 2011-6
Direct taxes and National Insurance payments Indirect taxes on domestic production
Taxes on civilian imports Transfer payments from the public
Source : Central Bank of Israel
-137-
ciated in recent months and there was a decline in
commodity prices. Taking into account the marked
increase of internaonal risks, in July 2011 inte-
rest rates had been le unchanged. But the pace
of interest rate increases is not xed and depends
on the inaon environment, domesc and inter-
naonal growth, taking into account the monetary
policies of major central banks and the exchange
rate environment (Bank of Israel).
Real rates, based on 12-month inaon forecasts,
were negave, while the 16% annual rise in house
prices is of great concern (EIU). Furthermore, con-
cerns regarding the global growth slowdown and
the EU debt crisis which could lead to a slowdown
or impediment in the rate of interest rate rises in
main economies and thus potenal pressures for
the appreciaon of the shekel that are likely to
increase due to the expected interest rate die-
renals (Bank of Israel). The Bank of Israel decided
on September 26th to lower its key interest rate by
25 basis points to 3% because of the internaonal
slowdown.
Monetary policy is expected to be connuously -
ghtened in the coming years (2013-2015 period),
as capacity constraints become more and more
evident (EIU). Delays in further ghtening could
be a risk for more inaon and would thus result
into a need for disinaon. Thus, macroprudenal
instruments and various forms of capital controls
could be of great use(IMF, 2011).
IV. Improving condions for the youth
1. Youth condions in Israel
Since Israel is the most economically developed
country in the Mediterranean and also has a regime
of growth that shares principles of democracy one
would expect that the domesc youth benets from
beer condions, especially regarding employment,
compared to other MPs. Also, one must note that the
educaon system is well developed and also has high
enrolment rates.
Even so, youth unemployment is not parcularly
low (close 16.1% in 2008) and is high for certain
parts of the populaon (ex. Ethiopian new immi-
grants). Speaking about Israeli youth in a genera-
lized manner is impossible because of the structu-
re of the Israeli society, composed of Arab Israelis,
Bedouins, Druzes and working migrants from dif-
ferent countries (Euromed Youth Programme). In
2008, one would count 60000 immigrants aged
between 12-17 in Israel, which corresponds to
roughly 9% of all youth, 70% of which origina-
te from the former Soviet Union and 12% from
Ethiopia (Kahan-Strawczynski et al, 2010).
Among the most common issues faced by the Is-
raeli youth one finds poverty, especially in immi-
grant and Arab families, with 35.9% of children
in 2007 under the poverty line. Furthermore,
there is a high risk behaviour of Israeli youth be-
cause of the unstable security situation, leading
to a rising level of drug abuse (19% of boys at
age of 11 drink alcohol at least once a week) and
violence (Euromed Youth Programme).
The truth is that there is no real national youth
policy in Israel, often changing administrations
have stalled potential efforts and a coordinating
body, for the sporadic attempts by various minis-
tries on the youth issue, does not exist. Recently,
committees have been formed to promote two
types of youth strategies, they are Youth at the
Centre, an initiative sharing best practices and
empowering youth work at the municipality le-
vel and the Youth Lawan initiative that seeks
the implementation of legal regulation for the
youth (Euromed Youth Programme).
One must also note that another issue, faced ex-
clusively by Israeli youth, is the one of Military
service for a long period of time which greatly
influences the transition from education to em-
ployment. As noted by the Euromed Youth Pro-
gramme III Study whether or not one has served
the Military can have an influence on future so-
cial and career chances. One can find great dif-
-138-
ficulties in finding a permanent job, especially
when military service has not been completed
and for groups of citizens being excluded from
the procedure such as in the case of the Arab
population.
2. Inequalies in school system for the Arab youth
In Israel, only 46.1% of high school seniors recei-
ved matriculaon diplomas in 2009, which means
that more than half failed, while only 39% of the
age group qualied to apply for college entrance
(AdvaCenter, 2010). The school system in Israel
has profound inequalies as seen by the die-
rences in success rates in matriculaon exams by
dierent regions. For instance, in the localies of
Modiin Illit and Bene Braq the success rates were
only of 5 and 6% respecvely versus 76% and 75%
for Raanana and Givatayim. As noted by a recent
study (AdvaCenter, 2010) the youth from auent
localies registered high success rate s in the last
ve years (67% average) but those living in Jewish
development towns and Arab localies (excluding
East Jerusalem) experienced a marked decrease
(from 54.2% in 2004 to 47.3% in 2009 for develo-
pment towns and from 42.2% in 2004 to 34.4% in
2009 for Arab localies).
Meanwhile, only a quarter of the youth appears
to go to college in Israel, in 2009 there were only
26.9% of individuals aged 17 years old in 2001 that
had made it to college. As seen in the Table above,
in 2001 only 75.4% were enrolled in high school
(84430 seniors) and the matriculaon diploma was
later obtained by only 45.25%. Among the laer
some did not qualify for college admission and for
those who did they were only 30150 (26.92%) by
2009. As far as inequalies in school performan-
ce go, one observes that in 2001 only 66.12% of
Arabs were enrolled in high school (versus 75.38%
for Jews) and those qualied for college entrance
were only 23.67% of Arabs (versus 37.27% for
Jews). Only 15.28% of Arabs made it to college ver-
sus 31.52% for Jewish students. Figures for acade-
mic colleges also show that there was an increase
in the number of students from all localies, even
so, the proporon of 20-29 year-olds from auent
localies was much higher, at 10.6% versus 6.4%
for the youth from Jewish development towns and
only 2.1% for the youth enrolled in undergraduate
programs originang from Arab localies (Adva-
center , 2010).
3. Vocaonal training that needs a new model
Vocaonal training in Israel is operated by the
Training and Personnel Development Division of
the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Employment.
Its goal is to reduce social gaps and to set profes-
Table 2. Percentage of 17-Year-Olds Beginning College by 2009
Total Populaon Jews Arabs
Number share (%) Number share (%) Number share (%)
Number that had enrolled in college 8
years later 30150 26,92 27833 31,52 2338 15,28
Number qualifying for college entrance 41740 37,27 36865 41,75 3621 23,67
Number qualifying for matriculaon
diplomas 50680 45,25 43794 49,6 5340 34,9
Number of seniors 84430 75,38 71193 80,63 10117 66,12
Total 17-year- olds, incl. ultra-Orthodox
and East Jerusalem 112000 100 88300 100 15300 100
Source: AdvaCenter 2010
Figure 15. Public spending on educaon, last date availa-
ble, total (% of GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Israel Arab World High income: OECD High income
Source : WDI
-139-
sional standards in Israel by developing human re-
sources trained in trades (Nathanson et al, 2010).
The share of graduates of secondary and vocao-
nal schools in Israel is high at roughly 84.6% but
the share of students who study in the technolo-
gical/vocaonal track is rather low at 37%. Fur-
thermore, the domesc technological/vocaonal
track has the lowest share worldwide regarding
students who combine training and work (at 3.6%).
Meanwhile, Israeli senior high school students en-
rolled in technological/vocaonal reach a share of
37% nowadays versus 52% in the late 1970s. Last
but not least, the number of classrooms for Israeli
students in such courses has been on the decline,
while on the opposite side academic classrooms
have been increasing(Nathanson et al, 2010).
This could be explained by the fact that, while it
sll remains above the levels found in high income
countries, public spending on educaon has con-
nuously been on the decline, falling below 6%
of GDP in 2007 (WDI).As noted by Nathanson et
al (2010), the specic budget for technological/vo-
caonal educaon has been greatly reduced, the
2007 budget being approximately 35% lower than
the budget for 2003. Overall, vocaonal training in
Israel has a negave public image and is conside-
red an inferior alternave to tradional studies.
There is a clear need for a new approach to voca-
onal training in Israel. As was already noted by
Heidemann (2000) educaon and training may
be all about individualised precondions and
consequences; but the condions for parcipa-
Figure 16. Evoluon of public spending on educaon in
Israel, total (% of GDP)
5,2
5,4
5,6
5,8
6
6,2
6,4
6,6
6,8
7
7,2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source : WDI
Box. Acquiring vocaonal educaon in Israel
According to the European Training Foundaon (2006) in
the domesc youth vocaonal training one can nd:
Industrial schools, in cooperaon with large indus-
trial organisaons and companies in order to provide
paid work placements to about 13000 students, theore-
cal and praccal work.
Apprenceship schoolsthat cover about 1800 stu-
dents in which small factories provide a school for ap-
prences.
Work groups and courses for those aged 1517 that
are not studying/working in collaboraon with lpublic
instuons and training networks.
Also a recent report (Nathanson et al., 2010) states that
the Israeli youth can acquire vocaonal educaon throu-
gh a series of measures, they are :
A TM (technician and matriculaon) program that
focuses on electrical and mechanical trades and allows
young students to become cered technicians (at end
of Grade 12). Its nature is very interesng since it is
jointly handled by the Ministry of Educaon, the Israel
Manufacturers Associaon and the IDF thus taking into
accounts the needs of the market.
Advanced secondary studies in Grades 13 and 14
toward the degree of Technician or Praccal Engineer.
Purely technological courses, divided into 2 tracks
and without providing any actual praccal training, they
focus on sciences and technological thought . The
rst provides specializaon in elds such as chemistry,
physics and biology while the laer oers specializa-
on in engineering trends (electronic, mechanical,
soware etc), in technological trends (communica-
ons, industrial design etc) and in VET trends (bu-
siness management, health, tourism etc). These trends
are purely technological in nature and do not oer prac-
cal vocaonal training or specializaon within a plant
or company.
Sources : European Training Foundaon (2006) and Na-
thanson et al. (2010)
-140-
on and the opening up of opportunies require
a more general, collecve form of regulaon
either by legislaon or by collecve or company
agreements . A possible approach could be the
one that strengthens individual responsibility
to help individuals nd their own way (similar to
the Brish policy for integraon and training of
young people in the early 2000s) in which every
young person has its own potenal which he
or she is personally responsible for realising, but
society has to open up opportunies and provide
support (Heidemann, 2000).
In a recent study, Nathanson et al (2010) sug-
gest a new approach for Israel entled Macro
Model for Vocaonal Training , which would
involve providing formal and informal praccal
work skills to improve each individuals individual
chances to nd work. The skills would include
formal educaon but also praccal and on-the-
job training. Establishing a central authority for
coordinaon also appears crucial in the authors
view, the authority also having the task to de-
termine the course of acon, pass laws and regu-
laons, employ long-term strategic planning, and
supervision of training levels.
Naturally, for a new approach to work, trainers should
be up to the task. The process would gain if trainers
ceased to be just knowledge transmiers but be-
came facilitators and learning advisors that
smulate learning situaons, allowing the trainees to
go towards self-learning (InWent, 2003).
Potenal lies on the high-tech sector which is
already one of comparave advantage and could
provide for employment opportunies for the Is-
raeli youth. Recently, the IT Works independent
charity launched the Youth Empowerment Pro-
gram (YEP) targeng the youth-at-risk with no
high school diploma, in an eort that combines
technological educaon with volunteering and
personal mentoring. Such iniave could provi-
de valuable help to low income localies and the
Naonal Insurance Instute of Israel has already
commied in funding half of 18 YEP cohorts in
the next three years.
But one must always keep in mind that a one size
ts all approach might not work (Nathanson et al,
2010). Mulple models need to be implemented
to ensure trainees nd opportunies that allow for
career progress.
V. Conclusions
Compared to most MPs, Israel has one of the most
democrac regimes. Yet, there are always risks for
the current polical/growth model and new eorts
that have to be undertaken.
First, while growth is expected to recover, authories
must lean towards reforms that lead to less inequa-
lies and poverty and stop thinking about economic
growth per-se. Authories need to undertake more
eorts to improve educaon, the vocaonal trai-
ning system and access to employment for poorer
segments of the populaon. Also, more investment
in infrastructure will be needed to allow communi-
es living in poverty, or at the brink of poverty, to
increase their parcipaon in the labor market.
Secondly, the government has probably focused too
much on the business sector for instance by reducing
government outlays to avoid compeon with busi-
ness over sources of credit, or by reducing corporate
taxes to aract foreign capital. But these measures,
while benecial to growth especially in the high-tech
industry, were not sucient to respond to all the
needs of the society. One must note that hi-tech and
the banking-insurance sector only employ 13% of the
total workforce. Thus, the government could orient
investment in more sectors of the economy and allow
for the low-tech sector to grow as well. Pursuing di-
versicaon eorts would allow sustainability of the
growth regime but also more employment opportu-
nies for those with lower qualicaons.
Finally, for more polical stability some observers
say that Israel could start thinking about reforming
-141-
its vong system that is sll over-dependent on nar-
row interest groups that oen paralyze the polical
scene. In other terms, what the country needs is
a system that increases accountability and stability,
even at the cost of a decrease in representaon
for single issue and minority viewpoints (Bain,
2011). The current polical system also condemns
the country to escalang corrupon (European Ob-
server, 2010). Fighng against corrupon should
also be of concern to improve the governing of the
country and provide a message of considerable
symbolism to the populaon.
References :
Abu-Bader S. and D. Golieb (2009), Poverty,
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-143- -143-
JORDAN: Quick aempt to contain polical turbulence
Like Egypt, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has
achieved high growth prior to the 2008 crisis (an
average of 6.5% during 2000-2007), driven mainly
by large FDI inows (15% of GDP) in the construcon
sector, parcularly from neighboring Arab countries.
Aerwards, real growth was reduced to 2.3% in 2009
and slightly picked-up to 3.1% in 2010 following some
recovery in investment and exports.
However, encouraged by uprisings in Egypt and
Tunisia, Jordan soon followed with some an-go-
vernment demonstraons in early 2011. And like
its neighbors, the discontent was fuelled by rising
unemployment, rampant corrupon and limited po-
lical openness. However, demonstrators have ne-
ver sought to topple the regime especially that un-
like many leaders of the region, the King was quick
to act. A new government was formed in February
with a mandate of advancing real polical reform.
Nevertheless, polical reforms, to date, fell short of
the demands made by the opposion.
Taking into account the regional polical instability
parcularly the unrest in Syria, a global risk of a dou-
ble dip recession with rising food and oil prices, fore-
cast for 2011 are as follows:
GDP growth is forecasted close at 3.3%, clo-
se to the 2010 level, reecng a relave strengthe-
ning of some of Jordans export markets, but a limited
recovery in FDI, low capital spending growth and the
end of the construcon boom,
The current Account decit is expected to
narrow from 4.3% of GDP in 2010 to 2.9% in 2011, on
the back of export growth following some revival in
demand from Asia and Iraq, thus compensang any
short-term decline in tourism numbers caused by re-
gional unrest,
FDI ows, which sharply declined to 6.3%
of GDP in 2010, are not expected to recover,
Inaon is expected to increase from 5% in
2010 to 6.4%, following the rise in internaonal com-
modity prices,
The scal decit is expected to slightly wi-
den to 6.2% of GDP (from 5.6% last year) despite
strong recovery in foreign grants, following expan-
sion in current spending to meet popular demands,
The exchange rate peg may have expenditu-
re-switching eects for Jordan if the US$ depreciates,
Jordanian youth have the highest unemploy-
ment rate (18%) parcularly among the graduates. The
Jordanian labor market is characterized by intensive mi-
graon of high-skilled educaon to oil-rich economies.
This country prole discusses the current situaon
in Jordan and underlines the challenges ahead. Af-
ter presenng the limitaons of the current polical
context, it presents an overview of recent economic
developments. Finally, it addresses the challenge of
youth unemployment.
I. The Limitaons of the polical economy model
Despite polical reforms undertaken during the late
1980s, their momentum slowed down under the
reign of King Abdullah II (since 1999) who has brou-
ght all opposion under royal sway (Yom, 2009). Of-
cially, Jordan has a democrac constuon since
1952, but it has been repeatedly bypassed, amen-
ded and bent to suit the rule of the monarch and his
regime. In this context, demonstrators had already
been calling on the previous prime minister, even
before the polical outbreak in the region, to under-
take comprehensive reforms to address corrupon
and unemployment. When an-government pro-
tests started in Egypt and Tunisia, they were replica-
ted in Jordan albeit at a much smaller scale, echoing
complaints of rising unemployment, rampant cor-
rupon and limited polical openness. And while
they have never sought to topple the regime, they
called for the dissoluon of the unrepresentave
and loyalist parliament elected in November 2010
as well as constuonal and polical reforms for
more eecve parcipaon.
Like his Moroccan counterpart, the Jordanian king
was quick to act. A new government was formed in
February with a mandate of advancing real poli-
-144- -144-
cal reform. Alongside new economic incenves,
the king commissioned two bodies to propose
electoral and constuonal changes: the Royal
Commiee on Constuonal Review (RCCR) and
Naonal Dialogue Commiee (NDC).
Reforms to date have led to some achievements in-
cluding the abolishment of military trials of civilians
(except for terrorism and espionage cases) as well
as the introducon of new human rights guarantees
including the outlawing of torture. In addion, the
judiciarys independence has been guaranteed and
an independent electoral system was established.
Moreover, to increase youth parcipaon, the mi-
nimum age for a deputy was reduced to 25 years,
while freedom of press was extended.
Despite these developments, there is a number of
causes for concern. First, members of both these
bodies were appointed and include many regime
loyalists. Naturally, the suggested reforms have so
far fallen short of the opposions demands. Se-
cond, unlike the Moroccan constuonal changes
which devolved some of the kings power (at least
on paper), the RCCRs recommendaons to amend
Jordans 60-year old constuon oer only modest
changes. In fact, while the constuonal changes
weakened the kings ability to postpone elecons
and reduced his me to rule in between elecons,
they sll entle him to detain important powers
such as the right to appoint the prime minister
and he sll has unaccountable inuence over po-
licy. Third, the NDCs recommendaons for elec-
toral change were also bland, with the electoral
system sll enabling the tribal and rural allies of
the king to dominate the parliament. As a result,
pro-reform demonstrators have clashed with the
police and pro-regime supporters. Another cause
for concern is that the parliament, which has not
yet been dissolved and is sll dominated by the
supporters of the King, is unlikely to be crical of
the amendments.
1. Polical stability and the Hashemite Kingdom
Like Morocco, Jordans posion on J-Curve (Figure 1)
is right past the turning point of polical instability
but sll remains very close. It is ahead of both Egypt
and Tunisia and ranks ahead of them (4th in the re-
gion) in the index of economic freedom (produced
by the Heritage Foundaon) which showed that it
had the greatest improvement in the region in 2010.
Yet, it is sll distant from neighboring Mediterranean
countries like Israel and Turkey.
Moreover, Jordan faces a risky dilemma. On the
one hand, the Kings regime while not toppled
could be at risk of falling if it does not deliver
on promises for political reform. However, a ge-
nuine democratic parliamentary system in Jor-
dan could bring to power the under-represented
Jordanian Palestinian majority who may discard
the monarchy altogether.
2. Governance and Corrupon Measures
Jordans record in governance measures is beer
than other countries of the region like Egypt. Figure
2 shows that most governance
measures are posive, with
some improvements and de-
terioraon between 2000 and
2009. On the one hand, a very
alarming deterioraon is no-
ced in the voice and accounta-
bility measure and to a lesser
extent in the polical stability
measure, both recording nega-
ve values, unlike the rest. On
Figure 1. Jordan on the world J-Curve 2010
Jordan
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Democracy
Stability
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indicator, Index of De-
mocracy.
-145-
the other hand, there are signicant improvements
in both the government eecveness and control
of corrupon. And according to Transparency In-
ternaonals Corrupon Percepons Index of 2010,
Jordan has a score of 4.7 and ranks 50th out of
178 countries (and 6th on the MENA region), this
outranks both Turkey and Egypt.
II. Crisis, response and short-term prospects
Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Jordans polical turbu-
lence has not had led to drasc economic conse-
quences. Economic growth has been recovering
slowly from the eects of the 2008 crisis, in tan-
dem with a growth revival in the GCC economies,
due to large trade and nancial linkages. Neverthe-
less, regional instability, parcularly from Syria, is
weighing on Jordans near-term growth prospects.
1. Short-term crisis transmission channels
Following the regional polical turmoil, Jordans
external nances, heavily dependent on foreign
inows including grants, remiances, tourism re-
ceipts and FDI inows, have come under pressure.
For 2011, the outlook is as follows:
Export growth is expected to slowdown
slightly to 11% following some recovery in Asia
partially offset by the global downturn and re-
gional instability,
The important bill is forecasted to grow
due to rising commodity prices,
As remiances and tourism receipts grow
albeit at a slow pace, the current account decit will
slightly narrow, from 4.3% of GDP in 2010 to 2.9%,
FDI ows, which sharply declined
to 6.3% of GDP in 2010, are not ex-
pected to recover.
1.1 Current account widens as re-
miances recovery has been slow
Aer a fall in 2009 to 21% of GDP fol-
lowing the aermath of the 2008 cri-
sis, exports bounced back to 22.5% of GDP in 2010,
but they are sll far from pre-crisis levels (26.2% of
GDP in 2007). The boost in merchandise exports in
2010 was parcularly strong in crude materials, ma-
nufactured products and chemicals which all account
for more than half of Jordanian exports.
Unlike exports, imports declined as a share to GDP
to 58.3% in 2010 from 60% last year, way below
pre-crisis levels of close to 80% of GDP in 2007. It is
important to note that Jordan is heavily dependent
on imports (parcularly of oil and machinery, ac-
counng for 45% of total imports), which are equi-
valent to 2.5 mes exports (Figure 4).
As export growth was able to outpace import growth,
the trade decit slightly shrank from 26% of GDP in
Figure 2. Jordans Governance Indicators
-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
Voice and
Accountability
Political
Stability
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
2000 2009
Sources : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Figure. 3. Jordan Exports by Sector 2007 - 2010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Others Manufactured Goods
Chemical Products Crude Materials and Inedibles (Except Oils)
Food & Livestock
Sources : Authors calculaon based on Jordanian Department of
Stascs www.dos.gov.jo
Figure. 4. Jordan Imports by Sector 2007 - 2010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Others Machinery and Transportation Equipment
Manufactured Goods Chemical Products
Mineral Fuels, Lubricants & Related Materials Food and Livestock
Source: Authors calculaon based on Jordanian Department of Stascs
-146-
2009 to 25% in 2010. Among services exports, tourism
receipts, which account for more than one quarter of
exports of goods and services, has been parcularly
buoyant (13% of GDP) in 2010 and are approaching
pre-crisis levels (13.5% in 2007). Remiances, which
represent a bit more than a third of foreign exchange
earnings are sll low (12% of GDP in 2010, compared
to 17.5% in 2007), thus resulng in a slight widening
of the current account to 5% from 4.7% of GDP.
In 2011, exports are expected to grow but at a slower
pace (11% vs 15.2% in 2010) as external demand re-
covers in Asia and increased re-export trade with Iraq
make up for sluggish demand in the US. Meanwhile,
the import bill will connue to grow as commodity
prices (of both oil and food) increase. However, the
current account is expected to narrow from 4.3% of
GDP in 2010 to 2.9% in 2011, on the back of export
growth, thus compensang any short-term decline in
tourism numbers caused by regional unrest.
1.2 FDI inflows have not recovered
Following reforms to improve the business climate,
Jordan aracng large inows of FDI before the 2008
crisis (15% of GDP in 2007), especially from GCC coun-
tries (a bit less than a third of total FDI inows) (gure
6). In fact, Kuwait is Jordans largest single foreign
investor, with an esmated US$5bn
invested in banking, telecommuni-
caons, retail and real estate. Owing
to slower regional and global growth
since the 2008-09 global economic
downturn, FDI inows declined to
6.3% of GDP in 2010, down from 10%
in 2009. In contrast, porolio invest-
ment increased to 3% of GDP aer an
oulow of a 2.6% of GDP in 2009. In fact, the stock
market index closed the year 2010 with a decrease of
around 6%. The downward trend has connued unl
July 2011, with a cumulave decline of 12% since the
beginning of the year.
Even though given the domesc polical turbulence
seems well-contained so far, global and regional de-
velopments will hamper FDIs already slow recovery
in 2011. Gulf investments are expected to ease in fol-
lowing the nancial diculty of several of the larger
Gulf Arab real estate rms. More generally, eorts by
the government to draw in greater private sector in-
vestment in new infrastructure developments will be
hindered by the slow recovery of the global economy,
and fears of regional instability, potenally delaying a
number of power and transport projects. More po-
sively, if the region stabilizes and as the world eco-
nomic climate improves, Jordans aracveness to
foreign investors will be boosted by the recent reduc-
on of corporaon tax rates and the launch of a more
exible new foreign investment law. In addion, its
advantageous geographical locaon could potenally
oer a larger role as a base for companies looking to
invest in Iraq and as a conduit for imports into the
country. Moreover, free-trade agreements with the
US and Canada and an Associaon Agreement with
the EU add to the countrys aracveness as a base
for exports (EIU, 2011).
2. Crisis impact on main Macroeconomic Balances
2.1 The recovery was weak in 2010
Following a decade of strong growth (6.5%
between 2000 and 2007), the Jordanian economy
Figure 6. Geographical composion of FDI, (%) 2010
13,9%
35,3%
50,8%
GCC
other Arab
Other
Sources : Arab Investment and Export Credit Corporaon
Figure 5 External Finances (% of GDP), 2006-2010
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
current account Trade balance Service and Income account Remittances
Source : Authors calculaons based on Central Bank of Jordan data
-147-
slowed down considerably to 2.3% in 2009, due
to the global economic downturn, and anemically
recovered to only 3.1% in 2010 (gure 7). The re-
covery was mostly due to a recovery in investment
(up by 2%, from a fall of 0.5% last year) and exports
(up by 1.1% compared to a contracon of 2% last
year). Imports also picked-up by 0.3% compared to
a drop of 2.1% in 2009. All other components of
aggregate demand have not expanded. Finally, it is
worthwhile to note that domesc demand sll ac-
counts for most of the growth with a contribuon
of around 88% of GDP growth (gure 7).
Most economic sectors posted posive growth ra-
tes in 2010, except for construcon and trade and
tourism with respecvely contracted by 5% and 2%.
In parcular, the recovery was strong in mining and
quarrying (up by 19% compared to a decline of 46%
in 2009), following an increase in global demand of
phosphate and other minerals. Other fast growing
sectors included nancial services (up by 7%) and
transportaon, storage and telecommunicaons (up
by 5%). The manufacturing sector witnessed only a
limited upturn (up by 2%, the same growth as last
year and sll signicantly lower than 9.2% in 2007)
(gure 8). As a result, its share to GDP declined from
19 % in 2007 to 16.9% in 2010. In tandem, industrial
producon fell by 3% in 2010 (compared to only -
1.1% in 2009). This occurred despite a phenomenal
increase in the producon of extracve industries (up
by 40%) which only partly oset the drop in manufac-
turing output (by 5.5%). In the rst quarter of 2011,
GDP grew by 2.3%, the same level as last year, driven
mainly by mining and quarrying (up by 43%), nance,
insurance, real estate and business services (5.6%),
and wholesale, retail trade and restaurants (4.1%).
According to CBJ (2011), this sluggish performance is
the result of regional instability.
The recovery in Jordan is dependent on the re-
covery of its regional neighbors. In parcular, the
polical unrest in Syria has broad economic impli-
caons for Jordan as the two are signicant trading
partners and valuable transit trac for Saudi Ara-
bia and the Gulf (EIU, 2011). Other large trading
partners include the Gulf Cooperaon Council
(GCC) economies, parcularly Saudi Arabia. These
countries account for the largest share of Jorda-
nian trade, remiances, grants, FDI, and tourism
receipts. The IMF (2010) shows that Jordans out-
put growth has the strongest correlaon with the
growth in GCC non-oil output compared with other
oil-imporng economies in the region. Moreover,
they provide empirical evidence that Jordans
growth cycle movements are closely linked to tho-
se of Saudi Arabia. A one percentage point (ppt) in-
crease to Saudi Arabian output increases growth in
Jordan by about 0.8 ppt. Moreover, shocks to the
cyclical component of Saudi Arabias output have
a large, long-lasng, and signicant impact on Jor-
dans growth path.
2.2 Unemployment has not eased
Jordans unemployment rate remained
in the double-digit over the past 10
years, stubbornly persisng close to
13 % since 2007 (gure 9). In general,
unemployment in Jordan has several
characteriscs. In 2010, unemploy-
ment had only marginally recovered
Figure 7. Contribuon to GDP growth, (%) 2007-2010
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic demand External demand
GDP growth
Sources : Authors calculaons based on EIU data
Figure 8 : GDP growth by economic acvity, (%) 2007-2011
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 Q1 2011 Q1
Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Construction
Trade and tourism Finance and real estate
Source: Authors calculaon based on Central Bank of Jordans data
-148-
from the eects of the crisis, to 12.5%
in 2010, down from 12.9% a year ago.
This was driven by a decrease in fema-
le unemployment (from 24% to 22%).
Meanwhile, male unemployment has
remained unchanged (around 10.4%).
In Q1-2011, unemployment has decli-
ned to 12.2% despite an increase in
male unemployment to 10.8%.
2.3 Inaon is on the rise but remains
moderate
Aer having declined steadily through 2009 to sli-
ghtly negave rates, in tandem with lower world
commodity prices, inaon picked-up again in
2010 averaging around 5% and has been hovering
around this level since the start of 2011 (gure
10). These recent increases have been largely due
to rising internaonal food and energy prices. For
2011, headline inaon is projected to increase in
line with imported commodity (energy and food)
prices from 5% in 2010 to 6.4%. A more formal
an-inaonary strategy is expected in the second
half of 2013, in tandem with the start of rate rises
by the Federal Reserve (the US central bank).
III. Macroeconomic responses
1. Meeng popular demands adds strain to public
nances
Like many emerging market countries, Jordans alrea-
dy dicult scal posion worsened in 2009, following
sharp decline in external grants and to a lesser extent
an increase in capital spending. However, in 2010, the
decit narrowed to 5.6% of GDP from 9% in 2009.
The decit excluding grants was larger but also exhi-
bited the same trend, declining to 7.7% from 11% of
GDP. This is explained by a fall in both expenditure to
30.4% of GDP in 2010 from 35.7% of GDP in 2009,
and revenues, to 24.8% from 26.7% of GDP. Most of
the decline in expenditure was due to a reducon in
capital spending by (to 5 from 8.5% of GDP) and most
of the decline in revenues was due to a decrease in tax
revenues (to 16% from 17% of GDP). Grants did not
increase; accounng for 2% of GDP, down from 4.6%
of GDP in 2008. In the rst half of 2011, the decit
(including grants) increased by around 55%, following
an expansion in current expenditure (by 13%), which
more than oset the cut in capital spending (down
by 19.7%). On a more posive tone, foreign grants al-
most doubled, though revenue growth only increased
by 5.5%. Jordan has already accepted a US$1bn grant
from Saudi Arabia in July and edged closer to joining
the Gulf Cooperaon Council (GCC).
Like in Egypt, the Jordanian governments desire to
keep a ght rein on spending in 2011 has been un-
dermined by new spending commitments made as a
result of the January protests. The King has granted
a JD100 bonus in August to former civil and military
employees, as well as day labourers, employees of
state-run, independent instuons, public univer-
sies and municipalies, pensioners receiving pay-
ments from the Social Security Corporaon and fa-
milies receiving nancial support from the Naonal
Aid Fund. Consequently, current expenditures are
expected to rise again. Meanwhile, recent moves to
lower taxes on 150 basic items will only serve to de-
crease revenue further. However, buoyed by foreign
grants recovery (parcularly from Saudi Arabia),
the decit (including grants) is forecasted to widen
Figure 9. Unemployment rates trends in Jordan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Q1
National Male Female
Source : Department of Stascs, Jordan
Figure 10. CPI inaon trends, 2007-2011, (%)

-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
jan-
07
avr-
07
juil-
07
oct-
07
jan-
08
avr-
08
juil-
08
oct-
08
jan-
09
avr-
09
juil-
09
oct-
09
jan-
10
avr-
10
juil-
10
oct-
10
jan-
11
avr-
11
Source : Authors calculaon based on Central Bank of Jordans data
-149-
only slightly to 6.2% of GDP in 2011, higher than the
government forecast of 5.5% of GDP. However, this
means that the government will not meet its 2011
target of achieving a primary scal surplus (which
would imply an overall decit of under 3% of GDP).
Although government borrowing rose in the rst
half of the year, the government seems on track
to keep its total debt level below 60% of GDP, a
debt ceiling recommended by the IMF. Net public
debt increased to 58.5% of projected GDP in 2011,
down from 61.1% of GDP at the end of 2010. The
public-sector debt burden is forecasted to increase
as wider scal decits force the government to is-
sue rising levels of Treasury bills.
2. Monetary policy is ghtened to curb rising in-
aon
Aer an accommodave monetary policy stance
between November 2008 and February 2010, the
Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) raised its policy rates
by 25 basis points in May 2011 and reduced banks
reserve requirements, following rising inaon.
Yet, the spreads between commercial bank lending
rates and its policy rate remain wide, as commer-
cial banks have so far not responded to govern-
ment demands to reduce their lending rates in line
with CBJ cuts. Further interest rates spikes are not
expected in 2011 while the recovery is sll fragile,
and also to encourage commercial bank lending
(which nally picked up by 6.8% in 2010 and fur-
ther to 13% in June 2011 vs. only 2.2% in 2009).
According to IMF (2010), the Jordanian peg to the
US$, maintained since the 1990s, plays a key role
in both anchoring inaon expectaons and in
maintain nancial stability. Even though the recent
strength of the US$ has led to some real apprecia-
on of the Jordanian dinar, IMF (2010) provides
evidence that Jordans real eecve exchange rate
remains broadly in line with medium-term funda-
mentals. However, should the dollar depreciates
( a likely scenario aer the US lost its AAA credit
rang with Standard and Poors last August 2011),
this would have expenditure-switching eects for
Jordan (imports from non-US sources would be-
come more expensive and exports less so).
The increase in short-term inows allowed ocial
foreign reserves to reach a record high of US$12.2
billion by end-2010, which decreased to US$ 10.7 in
June 2011. According to IMF (2010), current levels
of foreign reserves are sucient to buer against
severe potenal capital and current account shocks
as well as oset any pressure on the currency stem-
ming from short-term liquidity problems or negave
polical developments. This comfortable reserve
posion - relave to both potenal stocks and to
other economies in the region - ranks Jordan higher
than most comparator countries in the region based
on both tradional reserve adequacy measures and
some benchmarks for opmal reserve holdings. It
should also allow more exibility for the future con-
duct of monetary policy.
3. Financial sector has weathered relavely well
the 2008 nancial crisis
Following some eorts to protect the banking
sector from the fallout from the global nancial
crisis, like extending a government guarantee of
all bank deposits unl end-2010 (IMF, 2010), do-
mesc credit picked-up in 2010 to 6.8% in 2010,
compared to 2.2% a year before, driven by a re-
vival in private sector credit growth (up by 7.2%
compared to 1.3% last year). This has led the go-
vernment to remove the guarantees in January
2011. So far, credit growth remains buoyant at
9.7% though sll far from pre-crisis levels of 26%
in 2008.
Also, the banking sector remains liquid (with loan/
deposit rao near 75%) (IMF, 2010). Banks remain
protable and well capitalized. Naceur et al. (2011)
report some banking sector indicators for Jordan. The
return on assets and return on equity are around 2%
and 10% respecvely, slightly lower than the avera-
ge for the MENA region. However, Jordans banking
sector concentraon rao (the share of the 3 largest
-150-
banks assets to the total banking sector assets) is
high (86%). Moreover, IMF (2010) reports that the
rao of non-performing loans to outstanding loans is
only 6.6%. Yet, they highlight that banks could be ex-
posed to higher non-performing loans and provisio-
ning requirements over the medium term, as Jordans
growth path is likely to remain below potenal in the
near-term.
Following regional and domesc unrest, Moodys
downgraded Jordans Ba2 foreign-currency go-
vernment bond rang outlook, last February 2011,
from stable to negave. The governments
local-currency bond rang was also downgraded
with a negave outlook to Ba2 from Baa3, as well
as the countrys foreign- and local-currency cei-
lings. These downgrades reect concerns about
both Jordans public nances, following the deci-
sion to raise pay and pensions and lower fuel and
food prices, and external nances as a deteriora-
on in the balance of payments could lead to a
decline in foreign-currency reserves. Standard &
Poors soon followed with a cut in both Jordans fo-
reign- and local currency rangs to the junk grade
of BB+/B, for the same worries. The outlook on the
long-term foreign currency and local currency ra-
ngs was also cut to negave from stable.
IV. Youth unemployment
Like most of its Mediterranean neighbors, the popula-
on in Jordan is young: out of 6 million inhabitants in
Jordan in 2010, 1.7 million are aged 15-29 (28%), 2.1
million are aged 15-34 (35%), and 1.8 million (30%)
are between the age of 30 and above, according to
the Department of stascs. This young populaon
puts increasing pressure on the labor market. Yet,
youth face the highest unemployment rate, parcu-
larly those who are educated, pushing thus many of
them to migrate to nd beer jobs.
1. Youth unemployment is the highest
Despite represenng a signicant part of the popu-
laon, youth in the age group 15-24 including rst
me entrants in the labor market, accounted for
close to half of the unemployed (Amer, 2011).
Moreover, youth face the highest unemployment
rates. According to data from the Jordanian Labor
Market Panel Survey (JLMPS) (2010), youth unem-
ployment (15-29 years) is around 18%, which is so-
mewhat lower than in countries like Egypt or Turkey.
As gure 12 shows, the unemployment rate for young
men is 15% and it is more than double for young wo-
men, close to 32%. Unemployment is highest for the
age cohort of 15-19 (27.3%) then decreases with age.
However, the peak of female youth unemployment
is for a higher age group, 20-24. Also, Amer (2011)
observes that female unemployment rate is much hi-
gher than that of men for all age groups. It is more
than twice higher than that of men for those aged
between 15 and 34 (26% as compared to 11.6%). And
even though female unemployment decreases with
age aer increasing rst between those aged 15-19
and those between 20 and 24, it remains high among
the 30-34 years old (12.2%).
2. Higher unemployment among the educated
Like the rest of Mediterranean economies, a main
characterisc of unemployment in Jordan is that
young educated have diculty in obtaining a job:
34.1% of the unemployed hold a bachelor degree or
above, according to the department of Stascs. The
problem of educated unemployment is more severe
for females, as the share of unemployed females hol-
ding a bachelor degree or above is 61.5%, compared
to 21.2% for males (Figure 13). However, those with
less than a secondary educaon are those who ac-
count for most of the unemployed: 45%.
Figure 11. Share of youth unemployment in Jordan by
age and gender, (%), 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34
Male Female Total
Sources : Amer (2011)
-151-
Unemployment of the 15-34 years is highest for
those with a university degree and above (21%)
(figure 14). Amer (2011) shows that the female
unemployment rate (for 15-34 years) increases
continuously with educational attainment, pea-
king to 29 % among university graduates. The
same trend is observed for men with a peak
to 13.8% among university graduates. The high
unemployment for the educated reflects a mis-
match between the quality of jobs offered and
the expectations of highly educated individuals
(Kanaan and Hanania, 2009).
3. The Jordanian labor market between immigra-
on and emigraon
The focus of governments efforts in recent
years has been to create 46,000 new jobs per
year and reduce unemployment to 6.8% by
2017. Between 2000 and 2005, the economy did
create between 24,000 and 44,000 jobs per year
but this did not reduce unemployment among
nationals with remain around 14% (Rad, 2011).
This reflects two paradoxical features in the Jor-
danian economy.
On the one hand, there is mismatch between
the quality of jobs offered and the expectations
of highly educated individuals, which lead the
most skilled and highly educated Jordanians to
remain voluntarily unemployed or migrate to
oil-rich countries, particularly where they can
get high quality jobs and high salaries (Rad,
2011). This can explain why about half of the
employed in Jordan have less than secondary
qualifications.
In general, Jordan is a major labor-exporter and
jordanian migrants were around 734,000 in
2010 (around 12% of the Jordanian population).
Around a quarter of Jordanian migrants go to the
GCC and just over half go to other Arab econo-
mies (World Bank, 2011). Those households who
receive remittances are less reluctant to get em-
ployed because they have a higher reservation
wage making them less willing to accept low-
quality jobs (Kanaan and Hanania, 2009).
On the other hand, job is also a labor-importer. In
2010, it received around 2.9 million migrants and
around 20% of the countrys labor force was com-
posed of foreign workers in 2009 (Rad, 2011 and
World Bank, 2011). However, since the newly crea-
ted jobs are of low quality (low wages, and hard
work condions), they appeal to the non-Jorda-
nian workers, like Egypans, who represent 71% of
the foreign workers in Jordan (Kanaan & Hanania,
2009). Rad (2011) also explain that around 63% of
newly created jobs between 2001 and 2005 were
lled by non-Jordanians.
This feature in Jordans labor market suggests that
there is demand for labor but that it is not supplied
by naonals. Rad (2011) worryingly concludes that
the increasing economic growth alone would not
Figure 12. Unemployment rate by age and gender, (%) 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34
Male Female Total
Sources : JLMPS 2010
Figure 13. Share of unemployed by education and
gender, 2010
0
20
40
60
80
illiterate less than
secondary
secondary intermediate
diploma
bachelor and
above
Male Female Total
Sources : Department of Stascs (DOS), the Hashemite
Kingdom of Jordan
Figure 14. Youth unemployment by education, 15-34
years, 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
illiterate reads and
writes
basic secondary post-
secondary
university
and higher
Male Female Total
-152-
be sucient to reduce unemployment and that ef-
forts need to be deployed to generate decent jobs
that match the qualicaons of the Jordanians
credenals.
V. Conclusion
Compared to most of its southern Mediterranean
neighbors, Jordan seems to be enjoying more po-
lical stability. While the country could not escape
some polical turbulence in the beginning of the
year, the quick reacon of its leader calmed the
protests. So far, reforms have fallen short of oppos-
on demands. And while the Kings regime is not
toppled, it could be at risk of falling if it does not
deliver on promises for polical reform.
Economic growth has been recovering slowly from
the eects of the 2008 crisis, in tandem with a growth
revival in the GCC economies, due to large trade and
nancial linkages. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Jordans
polical turmoil has not had led to drasc economic
consequences. Nevertheless, regional instability, par-
cularly from Syria, is weighing on Jordans near-term
growth prospects.
Unemployment, which has persisted around 13%
despite growth over the past decade, remains one of
Jordans longstanding challenges. Unemployment of
the youth (around a third of the populaon) is around
18%, thus exerng pressures on the labor market.
Dealing with youth unemployment challenge is cru-
cial, especially that that they have recently triggered
social discontent and polical upheaval. The following
policy recommendaons could help improve the in-
seron of the youth in the labor market:
Higher educaon systems need to be res-
tructured and school to work transion programs
are required to help new labor market entrants to
adjust to market needs,
The Jordanian government has adopted a
Naonal Strategy for Employment in order to re-
place foreign workers with Jordanians but employ-
ment policies should encourage disadvantaged
youth to accept lower-paid jobs, currently taken by
foreigners,
In parallel, there is a pressing need to
create decent producve jobs that can match
young Jordanians qualicaons. In fact, the Jor-
danian youth is relavely well and more and more
educated (a large proporon has secondary, post-
secondary and university degrees) (Amer, 2011).
Finally, jobs created should not be genera-
ted by the government sector, as this short term re-
medy will only be reected in higher scal burdens in
the medium term.
References:
Amer, Mona. 2011. The School-to-Work Transi-
on of Jordanian Youth. Paper presented at the
Jordan Labor Market Seminar. Amman. June 1.
Ben Naceur, Ben-Khediri and Casu (2011), What
Drives the Performance of Selected MENA
Banks? A Meta-Froner Analysis , IMF Working
Paper WP/11/34. Washington, D.C.
Central Bank of Jordan. 2011. Latest monetary de-
velopments and economic development in Jor-
dan. July. Central Bank of Jordan. Amman.
EIU. 2011. Country Report Jordan. London. The Eco-
nomic Intelligence Unit Limited. Various issues
EIU. 2011.Country Forecast Jordan. London. The
Economic Intelligence Unit Limited. September.
IMF. 2010. Jordan: 2010 Arcle IV Consultaon-
Sta Report and Public Informaon Noce. Sep-
tember 2010. IMF country Report No. 10/297.
Internaonal Monetary Fund: Washington, D.C.
Kanaan, Taher and May Hanania. 2009. The Dis-
connect Between Educaon, Job Growth and Em-
ployment in Jordan. In T. Yousef and N. Dhillon,
eds., Generaon in Waing: The Unfullled Pro-
mise of Young People in the Middle East. Broo-
kings Instuon Press..
Rad, Sahar Taghdisi. 2011. Jordans Paradox of
Growth without Employment: A Microcosm of
the Middle East? Development Viewpoint 65.
August. School of Oriental and African Studies,
The Centre for Development Policy and Re-
search: London.
-153-
World Bank. 2011. Migraon and Remiances Fact-
book 2011. The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
World Bank Governance Indicators.
Yom, Sean. 2009. Jordan: Ten More Years of Auto-
cracy. In Journal of Democracy. October. Volume
20, number 4. Naonal Endowment for Demo-
cracy and The Johns Hopkins University Press.
-154-
-155- -155-
LEBANON: Weak growth because of domesc poli-
cal turmoil
Up until last year the Lebanese economy was
maintaining a high rate of growth despite the in-
ternational crisis and domestic political instabi-
lity. After growing by 8.5% in 2009, GDP grew by
7.2% in 2010, in part due to capital influx during
the elections period which boosted GDP. But,
while revenue effects resulting from the inter-
national crisis were small in size, the domestic
political unrest throughout 2011 and the regio-
nal climate of uncertainty are expected to limit
growth to only 1.3%.
As already noted in previous reports, the Leba-
nese case is a special one since the economy is
largely stimulated by reconstruction efforts. The
economy bases its development on the service
sector, primarily on tourism, but has seen little
progress in the industry sector. Meanwhile Le-
banon is less productive than other MPs and
an industrial policy that allocates Lebanese res-
sources in a more optimal way would be greatly
needed. Finally, the reconstruction cost has ge-
nerated considerable public deficits that ask for
a budgetary reform.
The challenges mentionned above could pro-
bably have been delt with more efficiently had
Lebanon not faced continuous political insta-
bility since its independence. Factors such as
concentration of power by ethnic elites and the
structure of the party system has perpetuated
instability. Meanwhile, foreign intervention has
often made matters more complicated while the
current climate of regional uncertainty certainly
threatens the domestic political balance. This
comes at a time when the political divide has
already contributed to a degradation of gover-
nance indicators. Furthermore, more than 1 out
of 4 Lebanese lives in poverty which means that
social conditions are in need of improvement in
a time when regional turmoil can be easily pro-
pagated through social uprisings.
Regarding Lebanons macroeconomic posion the fol-
lowing elements should be noted :
An esmated increase in exports by 3% fol-
lowing naonal data. In May 2011 exports had recor-
ded a 1.62% year-on-year real increase.
A 17.9% increase in goods imports, a great
source of concern following the rise in internaonal
prices.
Thus, a trade balance in decit, expected to
reach -15.2bn US$, to 37.5% of GDP up from 31.2% of
GDP in 2010.
A service balance marking an unpreceden-
ted fall to 2.76% of GDP from 5.75% in 2010, primarily
due to an expected fall in tourism with tourist arrivals
in the rst six months of the year down by almost 20%
compared to the same period of 2010.
The total trading volume in the Beirut Stock
Exchange decrease by 58% in the rst ve months
of 2011 compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, aggregate turnover amounted to 306m
US$, a 78% fall compared to the rst ve months of
2010.
Foreign currency reserves, expected to
amount to 48.063bn US$ in 2011, a 7.9% rise compa-
red to 2010.
Debt stock is expected to rise by 15.14% at
35.062bn US$ in 2011. Debt service payments are
expected to each 5.3bnUS$, a 4% compared to last
year.
The Lebanese pound is expected to remain
pegged to the US$ within a band of L1,501-1,514:
US$1. If as expected the US$ strengthens against
the euro in 2011-12 then the Lebanese pound shall
strengthen as well vis-a-vis the European currency.
I. The current situaon and its implicaons
1. A polical model that sustains instability
1.1 Polical instability derived from both internal
and external causes
In 1943, Lebanon formed its first independent
democratic government and amended the cons-
-156- -156-
titution ending the mandate of french-imposed
authority. But, since its independence Lebanon
has constantly faced political instability that af-
fects its populations well being.
According to Zakaria (2011), both internal and
external factors contributed to the political
instability in the country, with external factors
exacerbating the internal ones. Internal factors
would consist of economic and political margi-
nalization (concentration of power by ethnic eli-
tes and no power gieven to the population), the
structure of the party system (ideology, inclusive
and exclusive representation, and elite cartels),
as well as the militarization of communities. One
should emphasize on the fact that, parties ali-
gned with religious doctrine, particularlytend
to fail to develop a perceptible party structure
and carry out the regular functions of a mo-
dern western political party . According to the
author this is the case of Lebanon where the two
main political parties have greatly contributed to
political instability and violent conflict following
their Islamic doctrine.
Meanwhile, there are also external factors to po-
litical deficits which include foreign intervention
(by countries such as Syria, Iran, Israel, Saudi Ara-
bia, and the United States), the Iranian Islamic
Revolution and the after shocks of the Arab-Is-
raeli conflicts etc). The Arab-Israeli conflict could
have been a contributing factor to instability sin-
ce the increase of Palestinian migration into Le-
banon had a backlash on the delicate balance
(agreement) between Maronite Christians and
Muslims in the country (Zakaria, 2011).
1.2 A political situation that is still irritable
Though Lebanon has a regime closer to demo-
cracy and one that is far from the cases of MPs
such as Egypt, Tunisia or Syria, the domestic po-
litical state of affairs is still a tense one and is
expected to remain so in the short-run despite
recent efforts.
In recent years, the polical scene witnessed a sta-
lemate, aer the departure of president Lahoud in
November 2007, which lasted for roughly six months
before the elecon of General Suleiman as president.
Beforehand, there were several incidents that led
people believe that a new civil war could take place,
that is before the newly elected president stood neu-
trally allowing to alleviate pressures from the polical
divide and keeping the army out of any polical deve-
lopments (BBC, 2011).
Recently, aer a ve-month struggle, prime minister
Mika managed to appoint a government, primarily
composed of members of March 8th, a facon sup-
ported by Iran and Syria that had removed from of-
ce March 14th, a body supported by the US, Saudi
Arabia and France in early 2011 (EIU, 2011). It appears
Syria sll has polical inuence in Lebanon, despite
withdrawing military authority in 2005 (BBC, 2011). In
that respect, polical stability greatly depends upon
the ongoing support of Walid Jumbla (at the head of
the Progressive Socialist Party) who appears to be in
favor of maintaining es with Syria, but not as much
with the regime of Bashar al-Assad (EIU, 2011).
Lebanons constant instability, of which the
2011 administration fall appears to be one of
its recent materializations, is the cause and con-
sequence of the limitations of the modern Le-
banese state. As noted by Colombo (2011) the
absence of a state budget between 1993 and
2009, the lack of regular cabinet meetings, and
the fact that the parliament can be closed at will
by its speakerare all indicative of the profound
weakness and poor functioning of the fractured
Lebanese state.
Overall, the political tensions are expected to
persevere and the Lebanese government seems
to be currently facing a test for existence ,
with the recent split of views over the electricity
bill, a dispute between the two key sides of Gen.
Aoun and Walid Jumblatt, presently threatening
the majority alliance and being a source of ten-
sions (TheDailyStar, 2011).
-157-
1.3 Governance has all but improved
Indicators of governance can provide valuable in-
sights and explain how Lebanon is in a relatively
unstable political situation. As shown by figure
1, most of the countrys governance scores have
remained negative in 2009 and deteriorations
have occurred in almost all measures.
In recent years, the war on Lebanon but also in-
terminable political divide has led to a deterio-
ration of the Political Stability No Violence indi-
cator which in 2009 was very close to a level of
bad governance. Meanwhile, the government
effectiveness indicator, which mirrors how the
quality of services provided by public authorities
is perceived has decreased, suggesting lessened
credibility and a lack of effectiveness in policy
implementation.
Furthermore, control of corruption appears to
have deteriorated as well. In its 2010 edition,
the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of Trans-
parency International ranks Lebanon 127th out
of 178 countries which means the country re-
mains among the most corrupt economies in the
region and keeps worsening since 2007 (CPI of
2.5 in 2010 versus CPI of 3.6 in 2007). The cau-
ses behind this phenomenon include the lack of
awareness on the causes and consequences of
corruption, non-effective (or the lack of) anti-
corruption institutions and an insufficient legal
framework and legal implementation mecha-
nisms. One should also note that after the war
all past efforts conducted to combat the pheno-
menon have been rendered practically useless,
giving place to division as well as competition
for state resources (The Lebanese Transparen-
cy Association).
1.4 A growth model with potential to decrease
inequalities but poverty is still high
In figure 2, it appears that the Lebanese re-
gime of economic growth is close to the tip-
over point of the Kuznetz regional curve. This
means that for the time being growth does not
reduce inequalities, but the country can hope to
achieving that in the near future. Thus, contrary
to the majority of MPs, an increase in GDP per
capita could potentially reduce inequalities do-
mestically in the short-run since the distribution
of wealth would mainly favor poorer deciles of
the population.
But, despite being in a better position than other
MPs the challenge is still considerable, a study
by the International Poverty Centre (2008) sug-
gests that roughly 28% of the population is poor
while 8% is extremely poor. Most importantly,
regional disparities are massive, while poverty is
insignificant in Beirut it appears to be high in the
North governorate. The study finds that the poor
are primarily unemployed and unskiled workers
Figure 1. Israels Governance Indicators
Source : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note : Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
Figure 2. Lebanon on Kuznetss regional curve
14792 US$ GDP / capita
Inequalies
Sources : FEMISE calculaons based on EHII inequality
database and WDI 2010
-158-
in agriculture and construction. It also finds that
the projected cost of halving extreme poverty is
very modest a mere fraction of the cost of the
countrys large externaldebt obligations . But
the cost would rise considerably if future growth
were to be anti-poor .
As noted by the study, future
macroeconomic policies need
to be revised to mobilize res-
sources in order to increase
public expenditures on social
safety nets and public invest-
ment in social services.
2.Short-term prospects
2.1 Real sector
The Lebanese real economy is expected to be hit to
some extent in 2011. More specically one expects:
An esmated increase in exports by 3% following
naonal data,
A 17.9% increase in goods imports,
A trade balance in decit, expected to reach -
15.2bn US$, to 37.5% of GDP up from 31.2% of GDP
in 2010,
A service balance marking an unprecedented
fall to an esmated 1.14bn US$ in 2011, that is to
2.76% of GDP from 5.75%
in 2010,
A current account
decit that could reach
-28.5% of GDP in 2011
from -22.4% in 2010.
The Lebanese export
sector does not ap-
pear to have marked
any considerable fall
caused by the regional
turmoil. In May 2011
exports had recorded a
1.62% year-on-year real
increase. According to
EIU, goods exports are expected to fall by 1%
throughout 2011 to reach 5.41bn US$. However,
recent figures show that industrial exports rea-
ched 1.7bn US$ in the first six months of 2011,
being equal to an increase of 3% from 1.66bn
US$ in the same period in 2010 (Byblos Bank,
2011). Industrial exports reached 314.3m US$
in June 2011, up 3.9% from 302.5m US$ in May
2011 but lower than June 2010 by 0.5%. Pearls
& precious or semi-precious stones accounted
for 22.1% of total industrial exports in the first
half of the year, followed by base metals & arti-
cles of base metals (18.1%) and machinery and
mechanical appliances (16%). Meanwhile, Arab
countries accounted for 37.3% of total industrial
exports in June distantly followed by European
countries with 18.9%.
The great concern is on the side of imports,
following the rise in international prices, they
Table 2. Trade and BoP Indicators, US$m
May 10 March 11 April 11 May 11 %
change
Exports 371 354 375 377 1,62
Imports 1369 1631 1501 1578 15,27
Trade Balance -998 -1277 -1126 -1201 20,34
Balance of Payments -195 270 -199 -199 2,05
Source : Byblos Bank
Table 1. Poverty Measures by Governorate,2004-5
Extremely Poor Enre Poor Populaon
Governorate P0 P1 P2 P0 P1 P2
Beirut 0,67 0,07 0,01 5,85 0,95 0,24
Nabaeh 2,18 0,21 0,05 19,19 3,97 1,26
Mount Leba-
non
3,79 0,69 0,21 19,56 4,45 1,52
Bekaa 10,81 1,89 0,53 29,36 8,05 3,06
South 11,64 2 0,53 42,21 11,35 4,22
North 17,75 3,65 1,08 52,57 18,54 8,63
Total 7,97 1,5 0,43 28,55 8,15 3,32
Source : Internaonal Poverty Centre (2008)
Note : The poverty gap index (P1 index) measures the gap between the average in-
come of poor individuals and the poverty line. The poverty severity index (P2 index)
measures inequality among the extremely poor.
-159-
are expected to record a considerable rise af-
ter continuously increasing. In May 2011 they
had already met a 15.3% year-on-year increase
while EIU estimates for the entire year point to
a 17.9% rise in goods imports. According to the
Ministry of Industry industrial imports reached
123.1m US$ in the first half of the year an 8.8%
year-on-year rise. This was partly explained by a
30.9% year-on-year increase of imports of indus-
trial equipment and machinery in June 2011.
Additional pressures to the trade balance
should thus be expected and consequently an
impact on the current account. The trade defi-
cit witnessed an year-on-year increase close to
20.34% between May 2010 and May 2011. Pro-
jections for 2011 suggest the deficit could climb
as high as -15.2bn US$, that is to 37.5% of Leba-
nese GDP.
Meanwhile, the service balance is expected to
record an unprecedented fall to an estimated
1.14bn US$ in 2011, that is to 2.76% of GDP from
5.75% in 2010. Following the regional turmoil,
the tourism industry could be affected if pas-
sengers decide to cancel their trip to Lebanon,
in May 2011 the total number of airport passen-
gers being close to the levels of 2010 that is to
466.640, a slight decrease of 0.02%. But, recent
data from the Ministry of Tourism suggest tourist
arrivals in the first six months of the year were
at 774000, down by almost 20% compared to the
same period of 2010. It appears, the impact not
only affected the hotel industry, but also other
sectors of the domestic economy such as real
estate, construction, transport, retail and other
services sectors (EIU).
Consequently, the current account decit could
reach -28.5% of GDP in 2011 from -22.4% in 2010.
2.2 Financial sector
2.2.1. Stock Market affected by regional and in-
ternational events
The total trading volume in the Beirut Stock Ex-
change reached 50.4 million shares in the first
five months of 2011 which corresponds to a de-
crease of 58% from the same period last yea.
Meanwhile, aggregate turnover amounted to
306m US$, a 78% fall compared to the first five
months of 2010. Regional developments have
thus had a considerable impact, market capita-
lization decreased by 8.9% from end-May 2010
to roughly 11.7bn US$, of which more than 70%
was in banking stocks and 25% in real estate (Il-
oubnan.info, 2011).
Recently, the Lebanese stock market is drawing
little attention at a time were investors focus on
E.U and U.S. market developments. On August
19th 2011, the Beirut Stock Index would close at
1,299.69 points, with a market capitalization of
11.22 billion US$ versus 13.06bn US$ in August
2010. The large losses across international equi-
ty markets due to rising fears of a new global re-
cession have thus affected the Lebanese finan-
cial world (TheDailyStar, 2011b).
2.2.2 Foreign Reserves on the rise and Debt still
among the highest
The high level of the Central Banks foreign-exchan-
ge reserves (31.5bn US$ in March 2011) can be dee-
med as posive in a period of interna land external
instability. Foreign currency reserves have been con-
nuously on the rise. According to EIU, total interna-
onal reserves are expected to amount to 48.063bn
US$ in 2011, a 7.9% rise compared to 2010.
Figure 3. Debt Indicators in Lebanon, US$ million
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Debt stock Debt service paid
Source: EIU:
-160-
Regarding Lebanons debt indicators, prelimina-
ry figures for 2011 suggest debt stock to rise by
15.14% at 35.062bn US$ in 2011. Debt service
payments are expected to each 5.3bnUS$, a 4%
compared to last year. As noted by EIU (2011),
foreign debt is mostly held by local banks while
debt servicing is in effect a form of government
support to the banks. In that respect, the country
which has little chance to face contagion from in-
ternational debt crises despite a large structural
deficit and among the highest debt/GDP ratios.
2.2.3 A domestic currency to remain pegged to
the US$
Finally, the Lebanese pound is expected to
remain pegged to the US$ within a band of
L1,501-1,514:US$1. If as expected the US$
strengthens against the euro in 2011-12 then
the Lebanese pound shall strengthen as well
vis-a-vis the Euro. As noted by EIU, the Banque
du Libans commitment to defending the peg
finds support in its ability to influence interest
rates, high levels of assets and strong support
from local commercial banks . Hence, in the
possible case of capital outflows, the Lebanese
economy would need to fall back on its foreign
currency reserves and use a share to support
the domestic currency.
One should note that a survey of 100 senior
executives in the Lebanese industrial sector
identified echange-rate fluctuations in the past
as one of the determinants for the limited in-
dustrial productivity and competitiveness of
the Lebanese industry. More precisely, 56% of
respondents considered exchange-rate fluctua-
tions as the most important cause for the dete-
rioration of competitiveness since it brought a
higher cost for imported raw materials. On the
opposite side, only a share of 12% considered
exchange-rate fluctuations to improve com-
petitive positioning in export markets (Byblos
Bank, 2011).
II. Economic Policy and Macro expectations
1. Main developments
1.1 Economic activity to be impacted
The economy expanded at an impressive of
7.2% in 2010, though lower than 2009s 8.5%,
but higher than most neighbouring mediterra-
nean economies. The slight moderation in GDP
growth was driven by a sharp fall in gross fixed
capital formation growth to 9% in 2010 down
from above 30% and while imports also declined
(to 7% from 21%), exports rebounced to 7% from
almost 2% last year.
Growth seems to have eased in early 2011 following
rising the domesc polical unrest that gripped the
country during the rst half of the year, in addion
to the eects of the regional uprisings across the
Arab world, parcularly from Syria. The domesc
developments have weighed on
consumpon and investment and
the regional unrest weakened
Lebanons export performance.
Lebanons economy is largely de-
pendent on tourism, banking and
construcon all of which have
already weakened in the rst half
of 2011. For the rst two months
of 2011, tourist arrivals were
down by 13% over the same pe-
riod of 2010 and property sales (a
Figure 4. Decomposing demand, annual variaon of expenditure to GDP
7,5
9,3
8,5
1,3
9,5
8,3
7,0
6,0
4,5
8,6 8,6
2,1
20,3
18,0
32,8
9,3
5,0
13,8 13,7
1,7
7,0
3,2
17,2 16,9
20,7
7
12,3
7,2
6,6
5,0
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Exports Imports
Source: EIU:
-161-
measure of construcon sector acvity) declined
by 18.7%.
Taking into account regional and domesc develop-
ments, economic acvity is expected to slip in 2011
to 1.3% in 2011, far below the rate of 7.2% in 2010,
placing Lebanon among the slowest-growing eco-
nomies in the Mediterranean region. The services
sector is expected to conitnue to suer from regio-
nal knock-on eects.
1.2 Inaon is on the rise but remains moderate
Aer dropping sharply in 2009 in tandem with lower
world commodity prices, inaon picked-up again to
around 4% in 2010. It has connued its upward in 2011
on the back of rising internaonal food and energy pri-
ces, on which Lebanon is enrely dependent in terms
of imports. In fact, CPI inaon is currently (August
2011) around 5.5% with energy and food prices rising
respecvely by 14 and 6%. However, other CPI items
posted high spikes including clothing and footwear (up
by 8.8%), transportaon, health and educaon (up by
around 7%). In 2011, headline inaon is projected to
increase in line with imported commodity prices to
5% (see Figure 5).
2. Macroeconomic responses
2.1 Public finances
Lebanons scal decit improved for the rst me
since 2006, narrowing in 2010 to 7.4% of GDP
from 8.6% in 2009 and from much higher levels
over the period 2006-2008 (decit was on average
11%). This was mainly due to a cut in spending to
28.8% of GDP from 33% of GDP, which more than
oset the decline in revenues to 21.4% from 24.4%
of GDP. For the rst 6 months of 2011, the decit
remain unchanged from last year, around 2.5% of
GDP. However, ad hoc spending of ministries is ex-
pected to connue for the remainder of the year,
adding to the decit. The laer is thus forcased to
increased to 9.9% of GDP.
Lebanons public debt has also declined to
133.8% of GDP from 148% last year. Much of the
governments foreign debt is held by local banks,
and debt servicing is in effect a form of govern-
ment support to the bankswhich means that
Lebanon is unlikely to face contagion from debt
crises elsewhere, despite having a large structu-
ral deficit and one of the worlds highest debt/
GDP ratios. In turn, the banks heavy exposure to
the government, and the high interest rates on
offer, encourages them to keep buying govern-
ment debt.
2.2 Monetary Policy and Banking
The monetary policy framework, centered
around the exchange rate peg to the US$, has
helped to bolster confidence in the Lebanese fi-
nancial system. In recent years, it has benefited
from a strong leadership of the current gover-
nor. At the same time, capital inflows have led
to substantial reserves accumulation to around
US$ 44.5 billion in 2010 up from US$ 39 billion in
2009. Yet, as the Banque du Liban had to sterilize
these capital inflows to maintain the peg, mainly
Figure 5. CPI Inaon (av., %)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: EIU
Figure 6. Budget decit (% of GDP)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: EIU
-162-
through the issuance of high-yielding domestic-
currency certificate deposits at some cost which
weighs significantly on the BdLs net income po-
sition (IMF, 2010).
Interest rates (for 3-month t-bills) have remained
from last year (around 3.8%) but deposit growth
has been slowing down, posting negative growth
of around -1% in July and June 2011, after ave-
rage growth of 29% last year. Declining interest
rates have maintained healthy levels of private
sector credit growth (around 17% in June 2011,
lower than last years 22%).
The Banque du Liban aims to keep deposit rates
stable in the near term in order to ensure ade-
quate liquidity. The premium of pound deposit
rates over equivalent dollar rates will continue
to support inflows and an ongoing de-dollarisa-
tion of deposits.
The latest data from the World Bank Financial
Structure Database indicate that the Lebanese
banking system is more solid than the regional
average (Z-score of 18.91 versus 16 for the re-
gion) but the concentration ratio (share of the 3
largest banks assets to total banking assets) is
higher compared to the rest of the world (value
of 1 in Lebanon versus 0.745 in the region) which
means a need to increase banking competition.
IMF (2010) has also observed that effective ban-
king regulation and supervision, coupled with
conservative bank funding and asset structures,
have shielded the domestic financial sector from
the global turmoil. At the same time, conser-
vative prudential regulations on leverage and
limited bank exposure to real estate have pro-
tected banks from potential effervescence in the
real estate market. In fact, bank regulation and
supervision have particularly focused on pre-
venting excessive risk taking in this regard. The
BdL and the Banking Control Commission have
indeed reinforced cross-border supervision and
measures aimed at strengthening the oversight
of Lebanese
III. Conclusion : The Road Ahead
As highlighted by Fakhoury Mhlbacher (2009), the
process of democrazaon in Lebanon will remain
incomplete and frail to reversal if disagreements
over main issues lead to deep and connuous con-
frontaon and ambivalence about democrac ins-
tuons. Thus, it would be safer to apprehend the
transion to democracy as a precarious process
whose further consolidaon could be tested in the
course of me following a number of criteria.
The laer would include adopng a fair electoral
law,introducing substanal civil and polical liber-
es, the possibility for full decision-making by those
elected, a gradual reform of state instuons and
separaon of powers, rules of democracy being
applied to all including the elites and nally the
accession of the youth to the polical process. As
also noted by Colombo (2011), the Lebanese are
used to dealing with a faulty administraon while
they also know that they have to coexist since the-
re appears to be no alternave to the plurality of
Figure 7. Banking Sector Indicators: Lebanon VS the world (2009)
Source: World Bank Financial Structure Database:
-163-
the domesc society and no immediate way out
of the confessional polical system that was esta-
blished with the Naonal Pact.
All these years there were numerous factors that
did not allow for advancement in democrac
transion. But, with the emergence of the Arab-
Spring Lebanon should grasp the opportunity :
in its internal polics it should nally deal with
synchronizing its democrac and consociaonal
faces, and more precisely clearing up lingering
internal Disagreements (Fakhoury Mhlbacher
2009). Meanwhile, authories should provide
incenves to promote private investment in stra-
tegic sectors of the economy. The tourism sector
should be helped in this crucial period and be
restructured for coming years in order to reduce
the widening current-account decit. If domesc
pares also decide to opt for a stance of inter-
nal cooperaon then the potenal risk of capital
ight will be reduced along with the probability
for a polical shock. But, while the Arab-Spring
can iniate a new stage of development in the re-
gion, it could also translate into an addional load
on the Lebanese state due to increased fears of
the emergence of conservave regimes and the
relaons with Israel (Colombo, 2011). The main
challenge will be to maintain the country open,
polically and economically, while shielding it
from the destabilising eects of this openness to
external inuences.
References
BBC (2011), Lebanon country prole , July 13th.
Byblos Bank (2011), Lebanon this week , Is-
sue 229, August 22-27.
Colombo, S. (2011), Syria and Lebanon:Diver-
ging paths of state unsustainability , MEDPRO
Technical Report No. 6/June 2011.
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) (2011) Country
Report: Lebanon: The Economist Intelligence
Unit: United Kingdom. Various issues.
Fakhoury Muhlbacher, Tamirace (2009), De-
mocracy and Power-Sharing in Stormy Wea-
ther: The Case of Lebanon , Publisher: VS
Research.
Iloubnan.info (2011), Stock market activity
down 78% to $306m in first five months of
2011 , June 4th.
International Poverty Centre (2008), Poverty,
Growth and Income Distribution in Lebanon ,
Country Study number 13, January.
TheDailyStar (2011), Lebanons Arabic press
digest , August 25th.
TheDailyStar (2011b), Beirut bourse takes
backseat to global events , August 20th.
The Lebanese Transparency Association (2011),
Corruption in Lebanon , website, About
Corruption.
Zakaria, Pay (2011), Are Polical Decits in Le-
banon Self-Imposed or Externally Inicted? ,
Paper prepared for presentaon at the Annual
Meengs of the Canadian Polical Science Asso-
ciaon, Waterloo, May 16-18, 2011.
-164-
-165- -165-
MOROCCO : A more democrac regime in course
In a period of polical instability across the Me-
diterranean region, Morocco stands as a case of
its own. Despite recent protests, the country has
been ahead most of its neighbours in terms of de-
mocrac reforms, eciently marrying them with
its domesc growth regime. The laer has been
based on domesc consumpon and investment
on infrastructure projects which have rendered
Morocco a resilient economy with great economic
potenal. To Moroccos credit is the fact that it has
coupled democrac reforms with a growth model
that progressively relies on the knowledge econo-
my, that has fostered more employment creaon
than in neighbouring MPs while at the same me
inaon has become considerably manageable.
Nonetheless, the country has not been left unaf-
fected by recent events especially that efforts
for more democracy have stagnated recently.
Additionally, sources of growth are still not di-
versified enough and youth unemployment is
still high. There is no better time than the pre-
sent for the authorities to deal with these issues,
especially that they have the luxury of time to
do so. Indeed, while some demonstrations have
already taken place, both the economy and po-
litical climates have been less affected than in
other economies of the region.
Some factors allow for opmism in the Moroccan
case: First, despite the regional context, the Moroc-
can economy is expected to regain its growth mo-
mentum in the next 2-3 years with strengthening
domesc demand and an ancipated rebound in ex-
ternal demand, provided the crisis does not worsen
in European economies. Second, authories seem to
be determined to iniate measures that upgrade the
domesc infrastructure, both for physical and human
capital, thus providing much needed smulus to eco-
nomic growth and employment. The only major sour-
ces of concern will be those of potenal ineciency
and fewer scal resources in the short-run, following
the increase in the budget decit.
For 2011 a rate of growth close to the 3.8% mark
is expected picking-up considerably starting from
2012. With that in mind, one notes the following
evolutions in the Moroccan economy:
The social crisis in the region has not
had any considerable negative impact on the
Moroccan economy. Preliminary data for early
2011 suggests that external demand for Morocco
will keep improving and exports are anticipated
to rise by 13.5% in 2011.
But, there is an expected 20.6% rise in im-
ports for 2011 which means that the trade decit
is expected to worsen by an esmated 30.2% to
18.8bn US$ in 2011 and the decit would rise to a
high of 18.9% of GDP.
Tourism was feared to be aected by both
the Arab-Spring and this years cafe-bombing. But,
tourist arrivals unl the end of April were approxi-
mately 10% higher than in 2010. Meanwhile, the
Moroccan tourism minister had highlighted that
tourism receipts would increase faster since Gulf
states would parcipate through a 14.5 bn US$
fund to develop new resorts. In the end, it appears
that in the January-July period tourism receipts
rose by 8.5% to 33.1 billion dirhams.
Aer a 10% rebound in 2010, FDI is anci-
pated by some to fall by 10.1% to 1.95bn US$ (EIU),
close to its 2009 levels. But even so, compared to
several neighbouring MPs, Morocco is viewed as
having more opportunies for investors and the
advanced partnership with the EU means that in-
vestments are more likely to be long-term ones.
Events in early 2011 have harmed the
financial market and protests could halt the re-
covery since capital markets are nervous in such
situations. In 2011, Casablanca bourses two
benchmark indexes, the MADEX and the MASI,
have fallen respectfully by 9.01% and 9.07% in
mid-July 2011.
The import cover rao remained above
the 7 months mark. Early projecons for 2011 sug-
gested a slight rise in reserves following inial po-
sive forecasts on tourism, however, the regional
turbulence could bring a revision of the import-co-
-166- -166-
ver rao though it will probably remain above le-
vels of 2008.
Two remarks could be made regarding
youth unemployment. First, youth cannot wait
for a job that both matches their qualifications
and wage expectations. Second, they are more
educated than the rest of job seekers and have
higher expectations which unfortunately lead to
a demand-supply mismatch. Therefore, this can
explain that unemployment among the highly
educated is still twice the overall unemploy-
ment rate.
Domestic authorities need to take into
account (build on?) the productivity gains achie-
ved in services and try to channel them towards
other sectors of the economy within a consis-
tent strategy. Moreover, there is a great need
to provide the necessary incentives to orient
the youth towards productive employment. A
1% increase in the public-private lifetime ear-
nings gap is the equivalent of queuing up to 5.3
months for a job in the public sector. This means
that an adjustment of public remunerations in
Morocco would help avoiding a higher unem-
ployment rate.
Finally, Morocco has one of the most ri-
gid labor regulations in the Maghreb countries
on both the hiring and firing side. Social partners
and all interested parties should provide a new
labor regulation framework, one that does not
create impediments and inequalities in entering
the formal labor market.
I. The polical situaon and its implicaons
A country ahead in terms of democracy compared
to other MPs, but in need of beer governance
Contrary to neighbouring MPs which currently
face great political uncertainty, Morocco has
already started a path to democratic openness
and appears to be currently ahead of its neigh-
bours. Democracy promotion has been ongoing
for years and a series of reforms that were adop-
ted in recent decades have made Morocco one
of the most politically liberal countries of the
Southern Mediterranean. While those reforms
have sometimes been delayed the country did
proceed to : a) implementing the premises for
constitutional reforms (1996) by creating a Hou-
se of Representatives elected by direct elections
, the prohibition of torture and the inclusion of
opposition in the government, b) personal status
code reforms (Mudawana) to empower Moroc-
can women in marriage, divorce and civil rights
issues and c) reforms on the freedom of press,
on minorities rights and on decentralization.
Nonetheless, one could argue that Morocco is a
monarchy where the execuve, judiciary, legisla-
ve powers are sll concentrated. Also, the recent
upheavals in Egypt and Tunisia have not gone un-
noced by the domesc populaon, in early 2011
thousands of people protested throughout the
country demanding, among others, for the mo-
narchy to renounce part of its power and reform
the constuon. When looking at
esmates of governance for the
Moroccan case it clearly appears
that in a decade the country has
also receded in all indicators with
condions worsening conside-
rably in Voice & Accountability,
Polical Stability and Corrupon,
a fact that was voiced by current
protestors. Hence, the February
20 Movement for more demo-
cracy and a constuonal monar-
Figure 1. Moroccos Governance Indicators
-0,9
-0,8
-0,7
-0,6
-0,5
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Voice &
Accountability
Political Stability
No Violence
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
Source : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note : Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
-167-
chy might not appear unfounded and could reect
valid concerns (New York Times, 2011). Also, one
could say that eorts for more democracy hadsta-
gnated. The party system has been inecient, the
monarchy elite is perceived as overly privileged and
the electoral process has been met with lile en-
thusiasm. Moreover, cases of human rights abuses
have been noted and the freedom of press is seen
as far from its opmum (MoroccoBoard 2010).
But then, Moroccos king ordered a drasc reform
of the constuon through a referendum on July
1st, voted overwhelmingly by the populaon
(hindustanmes, 2011). Thus, more powers will be
given to the Parliament, human rights will be esta-
blished as core principles and minories and wo-
men will obtain more rights. Thus, the Moroccan
polical model appears to evolve and fortunately
before the domesc situaon became unsustaina-
ble. To its advantage is that, despite the existence
of inequalies, its economic growth has allowed
for paral reducon of unemployment. The rate of
the laer has fallen below the 10% mark in recent
years, below the Mediterranean average, and is
not expected to massively rise in the coming years
as in neighbouring MPs. The gure below suggests
that the country has already passed the crucial tur-
ning point in its trajectory from an authoritarian to
a democrac society. Hence, the authories have
all to gain by embracing more pro-democracy
reforms as they have done in the past since the
possibility for domesc instability is reduced. Whi-
le the country sll has to evolve towards full-de-
mocracy it can sll claim that its stability is due to
its progressive democrac openess and
the long-term gains to be achieved are
already closer than in neighbouring MPs.
Two paths are now possible for Mo-
rocco: the current regime can keep
embracing democratic reforms since
its long-term benefits are closer. Or it
can stagnate, with a more democratic
regime compared to most of its neigh-
bours, but still too close to the possibi-
lity of upheaval which would lead to instability.
The approach followed n recent months suggests
Morocco is following the first path.
If succesfull, the Moroccan experience could
even serve as an example to other countries in
the Southern shore of the Mediterranean due to
the fact that it consists of a mariage of democra-
cy and Islamic concepts such as shura (con-
sultation in governing between leaders and the
community), ummah (a diverse international
Muslim community that favours human rights)
and ijma (consensus).
II. Economic Cost of Recent Developments
1. Real sector that has not worsened but trade de-
cit remains high
The social crisis in the region has not had any con-
siderable negave impact on the Moroccan eco-
nomy. While demonstraons have occured in the
capital and the recent bombing could be perceived
as a threat to the countrys stability, the economy
has been less aected than in other economies of
the regions, as shown by the evoluon of the fol-
lowing main aggregates:
An esmated increase in goods exports of
13.5% in 2011.
A 20.6% rise in the imports bill in 2011 which
would bring it to an ancipated 40.87bn US$.
Thus, the trade decit is expected to rise by
30.2% to 18.8bn US$ in 2011,
Figure 2. Morocco on the world J-Curve (2010)
Morocco
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stability
Democracy
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indicator,
Index of Democracy.
-168-
The service balance is expected to fall by -5.6%
in 2011 but tourism rose by 8.5% to 33.1 billion
dirhams in the rst 7 months of 2011.
The domesc economy is more open than the Me-
diterranean average, hence Moroccan trade bene-
ted from the rebound in external demand especially
from EU partners. This translated into a 38.26% rise in
goods exports for 2010 at 19.42 bn US$. A large share
of exports tradionally originates from phosphates,
which recorded an impressive 36.7% year-on-year in-
crease in the rst seven months of 2011. As for texle
products they recorded an 8.7% rise in the same pe-
riod. Meanwhile, all other export sectors saw a rise in
their value with a marked increase by the electricity
cables sector which rose by 21.9% . Thus, Morocco
achieved a posive export-performance in the rst
seven months of 2011, total goods exports grew by
19% (Bank Al-Maghrib) and their annual rate of growth
could reach 13.5% (EIU).
But, the connuous rise in exports is not expected
to suce in covering a tremendous increase on the
import-side. One must note that, throughout 2010,
commodity prices brought a 65.1% increase in food
imports. It clearly reects the serious implicaons of
internaonal food price increases, in the rst seven
months of 2011 food imports increased by an addi-
onal 50% compared to the same period in 2010.
Meanwhile, imports in energy increased by 39.1%,
imports of semi-nished products increased by 20.6%
while consumer goods imports also rose by 8.4%.
Hence, there is an expected 20.6% rise in imports
for 2011 which would bring the bill to an ancipated
40.87bn US$.
As these trends are likely to connue over the next
year, the trade decit, which is expected to rise by an
esmated 30.2% to 18.8bn US$ in 2011. This means
that if forecasts are veried, then the decit would
rise to about 18.9% of GDP.
Tourism was feared to be aected by both the Arab-
Spring and this years cafe-bombing. Tourist arrivals
unl the end of April were approximately 10% higher
than in 2010 but aer the aacks about 15000 people
(3% of the total) had cancelled their visits. But contra-
ry to other MPs, Morocco depends less on package
tourists and relies more on independent tourists.
Meanwhile, the average tourist spends about more
than three mes (800 US$) than a tourist in neigh-
bouring Tunisia. Meanwhile, the Moroccan tourism
minister had highlighted that tourism receipts would
increase faster since Gulf states would parcipate
Table 1. Trade by sector grouping, million dirhams
January-July 2010 January-July 2011
year-on-year variaon
(%)
Goods exports 83 355,00 99 160,30 18,96
Phosphates and derivaves 19 134,60 26 160,40 36,72
Exports other than Phosphates and derivaves 64 220,40 72 999,90 13,67
Texles and clothing 10 852,30 11 792,30 8,66
Electricity cables 7 297,30 8 893,30 21,87
Fabric, kning 3 951,40 4 316,70 9,24
Electronic components 2 893,90 3 069,70 6,07
Goods imports 171 307,50 205 553,60 19,99
Energy products 37 281,90 51 871,50 39,13
Imports other than Energy products 134 025,60 153 682,10 14,67
Semi products 36 122,20 43 550,20 20,56
Food products 15 568,50 23 358,10 50,03
Equipment goods 40 609 38 933,00 -4,13
Consumpon goods 32 741,20 35 490,00 8,40
Source: Bank Al-Maghrib
-169-
through a 14.5 bn US$ fund to develop new resorts.
In the end, it appears that in the January-July period
tourism receipts rose by 8.5% to 33.1 billion dirhams.
Meanwhile, migrant remiances increased by 8.2%
to 33.3 billion dirhams (MoroccoWorldNews, 2011).
2. Financial Sector
Morocco is an economy with a nancial system at
an intermediate development stage, with a capital
account not completely open and overall a step-
by-step approach to liberalizaon of nance.
2.1 Uncertain impact on FDI
After a 10% rebound in 2010, FDI is anticipated
by some to fall by 10.1% to 1.95bn US$ (EIU),
close to its 2009 levels. But even if this decrease
occurs, it should be seen as a stabilization ins-
tead of a fallback. Indeed, compared to several
neighbouring MPs, Morocco is viewed as having
more opportunities for investors, the domes-
tic environment being a hub for the European,
Mediterranean, and African Markets. Domestic
reforms led to sustainable investment growth
(FDI was multiplied by 6 since the early 90s) and
along with infrastructurel investments they have
lead to an appealing business environment. Last
but not least, the advanced partnership with
the EU and the fact that Morocco remains the
sole Arab country with agreements with the US
means that investments are more likely to be
long-term ones. Despite the regional instability,
Morocco is expected to keep developing its re-
forms and growth to attract foreign firms.
2.2 Stock Markets upward trend interrupted
Recent events have proven harmful to an otherwise
well-performing market. In the last quarter of 2010,
the MASI index grew by 6.4% compared to the pre-
vious quarter, to a 21.2% annual performance. The
market was expected to keep following an upward
trend throughout 2011, in February it had already ap-
preciated by 1.7% with a 1.2% market performance
since the beginning of the year. But, among other
reasons, the bombing that targeted foreign tourists
appeared to have interrupted that trend. As for the
MADEX Free Float Index, it used to be close to the
10,500 mark in early March before falling by 3.5%
and nally reaching a value of 9,694.51 aer the April
aack. In mid-July 2011, the MADEX and the MASI
indexes have fallen respecully by 9.01% and 9.07%
(Yacout.Info, 2011). Whether Moroccan indices will
fully recover remains to be seen. Recent protests mi-
ght halt the recovery since capital markets are ner-
vous in such situaons. In all cases, the inial eupho-
ria of early 2011 appears to have dissapeared, hence,
it could take some me for market acvity to get out
of its current state.
2.3 Foreign Reserves and Debt Indicators expec-
ted to remain stable
Foreign currency reserves had reached 7.4
months of imports in 2009, and the import bill
was reduced which alleviated pressures on fo-
reign exchange. Imports rose in 2010, thus the
import cover ratio reached the 6.9 months mark.
Net external reserves progressively grew in 2010
and in early 2011 their outstanding amount in-
creased by an annual rate of 6.7% following the
rise in tourism receipts. But the massive rise in
imports for 2011 has lowered expectations for
the import ratio to 6.3 months of imports, des-
Figure 3. FDI inows by sector (%)
Real Estate
Tourism
Banking
Industry
Telecommunicaons
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009 2010 2011
Source : Bank Al-Maghrib, esmaons for 2011
-170-
pite positive forecasts on tourism. Fortunately,
despite the regional turbulence the ratio will re-
main above its pre-crisis levels of 2008.
As for Moroccan debt, external debt for 2010
increased to 27.1bn US$ which corresponds
to an increase in percent of GDP from 26% in
2009 to 29.8% in 2010. In 2011, total external
debt could reach 29.6bn US$ which is roughly
equal to last years level in terms of GDP (29.7%).
As for the debt service ratio, it stood at 8.7%
in 2010, down from 10.2% in 2009, well below
its pre-crisis levels. Forecasts point towards an
increase in 2011 to 8.9% before stabilizing. The
overall levels of debt increased since Septem-
ber 2010, a time when Morocco resorted to the
international market, and one should note that
political tensions in the region could result in
upward pressures on risk premiums. Even so,
the current growth regime and the determi-
nation of authorities control the fiscal deficit
should maintain the public debt below 70% of
GDP in the coming years.
III. Economic Policy and Macro expectaons
1. Main developments
1.1 Economic growth partly hindered in the post-
crisis context
In 2010, following the still frail external demand,
Morocco achieved a 3.7% rate of growth, below
initial forecasts and lower than the regional ave-
rage of 4.9%. Once again, this stresses how the
country needs to diversify its sources of growth,
the deceleration in GDP growth being correlated
with the 5.13% fall in the agriculture & fishery
sector for 2010. It was a year where agricultural
harvest faced unfavorable weather conditions,
the 2009/10 cereal harvest falling by more than
25%, coming on the heels of a spectacular 2009
where the agricultural sector had grown by ap-
proximately 30%.
The non-agricultural economy needs to grow and
authories should focus on higher value-added
sectors and foster more producvity. Currently,
Moroccan growth also relies on other services and
commerce, the former grew year-on-year by 6.1%
in the rst quarter of 2011 while the laer met a
5.8% rise in the same period. Other sectors such as
extracon (+39.5%), hotels & restaurants (+9.2%),
postal, telecommunicaon services (+5.8%) and
the construcon sector (+3.2%) also grew. The
trade sector is also expected to benefit from the
upward path followed by nonagricultural activi-
ties. Furthermore, the transportation sector is
expected to grow following the 7.1% growth in
the fourth quarter of 2010 and 7.2% in the first
quarter of 2011. More specifically, air traffic
grew by 15.1% in end 2010 and kept its pace at
15.3% in January 2011 (Bank Al-Maghrib).
Expectations for 2011 suggest a rate of growth
close to the 3.8% mark, above the regional ave-
rage anticipated at 2.6% in 2011, before rising
above 4% starting from 2013 (EIU). The export-
led industry is expected to be fueled by the new
Figure 5. Debt Indicators in Morocco, external debt as % on GDP in
parenthesis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total external debt (US$ bn) Debt-service ratio, paid (%)
(27,1%)
(27,3%) (23,4%)
(26%)
(29,8%) (29,7%)
(31,5%)
Source : EIU
Figure 4. Foreign exchange reserves (in months of imports)
5,7
7,4
6,9
6,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2008 2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (for.)
Source : COFACE
-171-
Renault car-assembly plant while the port of
Tangiers is expected to contribute to services-in-
duced growth. Even so, the 2011 rate of growth
will still be well below the 2000-2008 Moroccan
average (close to 5.5%) and even further than
the level needed to reduce inequalities and fos-
ter employment. In that respect there is immi-
nent need for Morocco to fully embrace a pro-
ductivity-led regime.
In last years report, FEMISE stressed how the Moroc-
can economy gradually gained in eciency to reach a
posive producvity growth rate through the rst half
of the 2000s. But, as shown by gure 7, total factor
producvity growth in recent years has been relavely
inconsistent, esmates show that aer being close to
4% in 2006 it turned negave -0.1% in 2007, bounced
back to a 2.2% average in 2008-2009, before falling
again at 1.2% in 2010 and 2011. Morocco needs to
strengthen its growth regime, favoring a rm structu-
re that maximizes producve potenal, allows for bet-
ter transfers of technology and builds upon a skilled
labour force. The country can achieve these goals
by developing higher value-added products straying
away from its agricultural dependence.
1.2 An unemployment rate that has stabilized well
below the Mediterranean average
The unemployment rate in Morocco was at the 9.1%
mark in 2010, lower than the regional average of 10%.
Eorts have been conducted but, as we will discuss in
a laer secon, more needs to be done regarding the
youth where most of the unemployed are concentra-
ted. The rate of unemployment in recent years has
Figure 6. Value added at basic prices, by acvity, base year 1998, million dirhams
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1
Public administration etc
Other services
Postal & telecommunication services
Transport
Hotels & restaurants
Trade
Construction, public works
Water & electricity
Transformation industry
Extraction industry
Agriculture & fishery
Source : Bank Al-Maghrib
Figure 7. Total Factor Producvity growth in Morocco
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source : EIU, esmates for 2011, 2012
Box. The beneciaries of Moroccan employment creaon
During the last decade, the annual average employment
creaon amounted to 156,000 job posions, bringing
the volume of employment from 8.845 million in 2000 to
10.405 million in 2010.
The beneciaries of the new creaons are mainly:
Men, with 118 000 jobs created annually versus
only 38 000 for women,
Adults aged 40 to 59, benet from 112 000 new jobs
annually, meanwhile, those aged 15 to 29 annually lose
9000 jobs;
The services sector created 84 000 jobs annually
during the last decade followed by the construcon sec-
tor (48000 and 63000 annually in the two years since
2008);
Urban regions, have proted from 1.08 million new
jobs versus only 480 000 for rural regions;
Regions that are main contributors to producon
value and GDP include Casablanca (contribuon of
21.3% to GDP and 28 000 jobs annually created).
Source : Haut-commissariat au Plan
-172-
seen a spectacular decrease. It fell
from a 14.4% average in the 2000-
2007 period to 9.6% in 2008, 9.1%
in 2009 and remained at that level
in 2010. Urban areas suer from the
highest rates, though o unemploy-
ment fell drascally, from 21.4% in
2000 to 13.5% in end-June 2011,
following several employment crea-
on iniaves.
As for rural unemployment, it attained 3.6% in
mid 2011, however one should note that unde-
remployment, a frequent phenomenon is such
areas, is usually higher than in the urban land.
The highest rates of unemployment are in the
regions of lOriental (18% in 2010), Rabat-Sal-
Zemmour-Zaer (12.2%) and the three regions of
southern Morocco (11.4%). Meanwhile, Marra-
kech-Tensift-Al Haouz (5.8% in 2010), Taza-Al Ho-
ceima-Taounate (6.1%), Fs-Boulemane (6.1%)
and Tadla-Azilal (6.2%) are among the least af-
fected regions.
Contrary to other countries in the region, the
gender issue in employment does not appear to
be as marked as in neighbouring MPs. In mid2011
the unemployment rate among women reached
a rate of 9.7% versus 8.4% for men a fact that
mirrors the efforts that have been conducted in
creating a society of equality among both sexes,
one that could serve as an example at the regio-
nal level.
In the end, unemployment is expected to re-
main close to last years levels in 2011, slightly
increasing to 9.2%. However, the
unemployment issue, while not as
dramatic as in neighbouring MPs, is
still a very serious one. According
to domestic authorities, to main-
tain the unemployment and acti-
vity rates at its 2010 level Morocco
should create an additional 17000
jobs per year in the next two deca-
des. But, if Moroccos activity rate were to attain
its level of 1999 then the domestic authorities
would need to create about 92000 additional
jobs per year.
All indications point to the fact that the country
needs a new model for growth, one that integra-
tes the economy in the global context, in sectors
such as renewable energy and manufacturing in
which Morocco can have a comparative advan-
tage. The gains in infrastructure would allow
for the creation of decent jobs and most impor-
tantly for better income distribution among the
workforce. But, a valuation of human resources
is needed and education and training need to be
used more efficiently in the coming years since
currently, as we will later see in detail, Moroccan
Figure 8. Unemployment by geographical area
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2009T1 2009T2 2009T3 2009T4 2010T1 2010T2 2010T3 2010T4 2011T1 2011T2
Urban
Rural
Total
Source : Haut Commissariat au Plan
Figure 9. Average annual employment creaon by sector,
2000-2010 (in thousands)
84
48
13
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Services Construction Agriculture &
fishery
Industry
Source : Haut Commissariat au Plan
Figure 10 Urban unemployment by type of unemployed
48,6
44,7 42,8
46,3
53
48,6 47 45,6 48,8 46
51,4
55,3 57,1
53,7
47
51,4 53 54,4 51,2 54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008T1 2008T2 2008T3 2008T4 2009T1 2009T2 2009T3 2009T4 2010T1 2010T2
Unemployed with prior work Unemployed with no prior work
Source : Haut Commissariat au Plan
-173-
students are below average regarding knowled-
ge skills.
2. Macro reacon : Decelerang growth and in-
creased scal pressures but expected return to
trends starng 2012
2.1 Economic acvity that will sll rely on private
and public consumpon
In recent years, public consumpon has contribu-
ted in sustaining Moroccan growth. Right aer the
2008 crisis it registered a real increase by 12.1% in
2009, it fell in 2010 by 0.9% while it is expected to
grow in 2011 (by an esmated 5%). Public works
following the internaonal turmoil have been used
as a means to sustain growth and employment
creaon in sectors such as tourism, allowing for
the rise in the GDP to be near3.7% in 2010.
Even so, private consump-
on grew a lot less than
in prior years (only 2.2%
in 2010 and is expected
to grow by 4.5% in 2011).
However, there are reasons
for opmism for the near
future following the rise in
nonagricultural acvies
but also the recent increase
in remiances.
Investment growth, while important, will have di-
cules matching the pre-cirisis rate of growth (14.3%
in 2007 and 11.5% in 2008) and the current regional
polical climate might parally aect the aracve-
ness of Morocco as an investment desnaon brin-
ging in investment growth to an esmated 3.5% in
2011, sll above the levels of 2010. Public investment
is expected to increase and be essenally venlated
in the phosphate, renewable energy and basic infras-
tructure sectors (Bank Al-Maghrib).
Finally, export performance will probably keep im-
proving though it will hardly parallel its previous
peaks since external demand from the EU will not
have not fully recovered.
2.2 A scal balance close to the regional average,
that sll allows for some maneuvering
Aer the internaonal crisis, increased scal spen-
ding brought the once balanced public nances
(+0.4% in 2008) to a decit of 2.2% in 2009, and
4.7% in 2010 and now an esmated -6% in 2011
following plans to increase subsidies on basic com-
modies by almost 100%.
Even so, contrary to highdecits in neighbouring
Egypt and Tunisia, Morocco sll has possibilies
for aligning its a scal posion with the Mediter-
ranean average. While there are no plans for any
tax increases in the new budget, authories expect
revenues to increase along with growth. As for the
subsidy system, plans to reform it, will be delayed
in order to ensure that polical stability is not
threatened following regional turmoil.
2.3 Monetary Policy that is always exible
It has been more than 2 years since the last me Bank
al-Maghrib changed its policy rate, currently at 3.25%.
Inaon forecasts remain low, in line with the Banks
objecve of price stability, which explains why the key
rate has been le unchanged.
The Moroccan banking system appears to be more
solid than the regional average (Z-score of 22.0 ver-
Figure 11. Decomposing GDP expenditure, annual change
2,7
5,6
4,8
3,8
6,0
4,6
2,2
4,5 4,3
4,8
12,1
-0,9
14,3
11,5
2,6
-0,7
3,5
5,2
7,3
-14,8
16,3
7,0
15
12,2
-6
3,3
10
3,7 3,8 5,0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Exports Imports
Source : EIU
-174-
sus 16 for MPs), the country has a rao of return
on equity similar to that of high income countries
but the concentraon rao (share of the 3 largest
banks assets to total banking assets) is higher com-
pared to the rest of the world (1 in Morocco versus
0.745 in the region) which can mean that there is
a need to increase compeon. Monetary authori-
es eciently dealt with liquidity concerns in the
domesc banking system, in end-2010 the liquidity
shortage of Moroccan banks was narrowed to 13.9
billion dirhams from 23.4 billion dirhams in the
third quarter. This was achieved primarily through
Treasury operaons which provided a much nee-
ded liquidity injecon of
12 billion dirhams. In the
rst two months of 2011
liquidity further improved
and went to 10.1 billion
dirhams due to interven-
ons to counter pressures
on the weighted average
rate. Bank Al-Maghrib in-
tervened through 7-day ad-
vances, with an average daily amount of 9.3 billion
dirhams, meanwhile, the central bank provided
addional liquidity through an overnight advance
of 3.6 billion dirhams. However, in Q2-2011 the
decit of banking treasury had increased to 21.6
billion dirhams, with autonomous factors exercing
a restricve impact on banking liquidity equal to
11.9 bn dirhams.
As for the exchange-rate regime, the managed
oat vis-a-vis a basket of currencies (mainly com-
prised of euro) was maintained to keep inaon
at low levels. In end-2010, the dirham depreciated
by 0.92% against the euro. As for 2011, the dirham
is expected to follow the trends of the Euro and
allow for Moroccan compeveness to be main-
tained. Overall, the exible nature of the Moroccan
monetary policy allows it to not contradict or impede
growth.
IV. The youth issue
Economic growth increased from less than 2% in
the late 1990s to 5.1% in the 2000-2007 era and
5.6% in 2008. Even so, employment creaon did
not reach its full potenal and Moroccan youth
unemployment remains an important issue, unem-
ployment in Morocco for the 1529 demographic
age group is around 17.6 percent in 2008. While
this rate is below what is observed in neighbouring
countries such as Tunisia,youth unemployment re-
presents 62% of the total unemployed.
1. Insucient employment creaon, high urban
joblessness rate
As depicted, in terms of unemployment the 15-
24 age group is the most affected (16.2% in the
first quarter of 2006, now 17.4% in mid2011),
followed by the the 25-34 age cohort (14.1% in
Figure 12.Budget Balance, % of GDP
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : EIU
Figure 13. Banking Sector Indicators : Morocco VS the world (2008)
22,0
16,0
10,13
11,75
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
Overheads/
Total Assets
Net Interest
Margin
Concentration Return on
Assets
Return on
Equity
Cost-Income
Ratio
Z-Score
Morocco MPs Lower Mid. Income High Income
Source :Ben Naceur et al (2011)
Table 2. Exchange rate
August 2009 August 2010 August 2011
Dh:US$ (av) 7,9 8,57 7,86
Dh: (av) 11,26 1,07 11,27
Source: EIU
-175-
the first quarter of 2006, now 12.8% in mid2011)
while those in the 35-44 age range come as a dis-
tant third (stable at 5.1%).
In Morocco, two remarks could be made regar-
ding youth unemployment. First, youth can not
wait for a job that both matches their qualifica-
tions and wage expectations. Second, they are
more educated than the rest of job seekers and
have higher expectations which unfortunately
lead to a demand-supply mismatch. Therefore,
this can explain that although unemployment
among the highly educated fell from 29% in 2001
to about 20% in 2008 (see Achy, 2010), it was
still twice the overall unemployment rate.
As noted by Achy (2010), the labor force expansion
has been puzzlingly slow, each percentage point of
economic growth only brought 0.34% growth in
employment which is lower than what is observed
in Tunisia for instance (0.55% growth in employ-
ment). The author suggests that the explanatory
factor is to be found in the fact that average labor
producvity in Morocco increased by a phenome-
nal annual rate of 3%, but, producvity gains only
beneted few private sectors agents mostly of the
service economy (transport & telecoms,banking
and insurance etc) that took advantage from tech-
nology transfers. In the rest of the economy the si-
tuaon is characterized by an uneven performance
especially in agriculture which is a sector responsi-
ble for about 40% of jobs.
Thus, domesc authories need to take into ac-
count the producvity gains achieved in services
and try to channel them towards other sectors of
the economy within a consistent strategy. But the
laer should not only focus on sectors, it should
take into account territorial characteriscs of the
youth issue as well. It appears that youth unem-
ployment is mostly an urban phenomenon and whi-
le the unemployment rate for the youth in urban
areas has declined in recent years, it sll remains
considerably high. Again, the 15-24 age group is
the most aected despite recent eorts (37.8% in
2006, 33.4% in Q2 2011), followed by the the 25-
34 age range (30.2% in 2006, 19.5% in mid2011).
Meanwhile, unemployment in rural areas has been
below the average rate, at 8.1% for the 15-24 age
cohort and 3.7% for those aged 25-34.
Box. Understanding the evoluon of the Moroccan la-
bor-market and its relaon towards the youth
The demography of the populaon is slowly evolving,
the total populaon stood at 30.9 million s in 2006, rising
to an esmated 32.3 millions in 2010 and ancipated to
reach 34.5 millions in 2015.
Moroccan GDP grows at an uneven pace, for exam-
ple it grew by 5.1% in 2004, by 3% in 2005, b 7.8% in
2006 and 2.7% in 2007, a trend that is partly related to
agricultural dependence and uctuang weather condi-
ons. Implicaons for employment are that such growth
trends cannot fully meet increasing labor demand.
Unemployment has the following characteriscs in
Morocco: it is mostly urban, mostly youth-oriented and
especially aects the educated.
The labor-market is subdivided into a formal and an
informal market. The rst is regulated by the govern-
ment, the second has no specic rules and is unproduc-
ve and non-responsive to investment in human capital.
In the domesc market, a workers dismissal can only
occur for disciplinary reasons, not for economic ones.
Work experience is greatly appreciated by em-
ployers, contrary to prior training, something that natu-
rally penalizes the youth.
The Moroccan youth tends to nd an employment
through their own social networks (family, acquaitances
etc). Meanwhile, family is a great nancial resort for the
unemployed since no formal unemployment insurance
exists.
unemployment has brought considerable deprecia-
on to the human capital and migraon phenomena to
more developed partners.
Domesc authories have tried to tackle the issue
of unemployment in the qualied youth populaon
(programme Acon-Emploi, CJNA, ANAPEC, etc) with
varying degrees of success.
Source : Schonholzer J. (2008), EIU (2011)
-176-
As for gender issues, they appear to play a less si-
gnicant role within the youth, that is compared
to other countries at a similar development stage.
Young women aged between 15-24 are less aected
than men, even though one should note that unem-
ployment has recently risen faster within the young
female populaon (13.2% for women versus 17.2%
for men in early 2006, 15.5% for women versus
18.1% for men inQ2 2011). In the 25-34 age range
however, women are more aected, unemploy-
ment being at the 15.3% range in mid2011 versus
11.8% for men.
On the whole, unemployment appears to be
mostly youth-oriented, of urban nature and also
aects the most educated. The laer point me-
rits special aenon and will be studied in the
following secon.
2. The youth issue and educaon
It is a fact that, as in other MPs, there is a high level
of unemployment across the educated populaon
in Morocco. There are reasons to believe that this
is not only due to insucient employment creaon
in qualied elds, but, also due to the poor quality
of the educaon system.
An internaonal assessment of the math and
science knowledge of fourth grade students shows
that Moroccan students are below average in both
math and sciences (scores under 400 signify only
basic knowledge is acquired). Furthermore, as
Achy (2010) notes, only 6.7% of post-secondary
students in Morocco are enrolled in engineering
versus 15% on average in developing countries.
Indeed, Moroccan students tend to be oriented to-
wards social sciences and law creang the unwan-
ted undersupply of skills necessary for the private
sector to ourish.
As noted by FEMISE (2008), access to educaon
was long constrained in the 1990s, among others,
by the predominance of sociological percepons in
liming literacy and schooling. Now, basic educa-
on is sll compulsory and provided at zero cost
by the government and contrary to neighbouring
MPs. Paradoxically, more than a-quarter of the
naonal budget is aributed to educaon while
the adult illiteracy rate, especially among girls,
remains among the highest (Achy, 2010). In ad-
dion, access to vocaonal training strengthens
the unequal access to educaon. By perpetuang
signicant weaknesses in terms of literacy and by
accumulang the negave eects of low levels of
enrollment in secondary and terary educaon,
Morocco did not properly enforce the educaon-
training sector. Meanwhile, increasing migraon of
skilled workers were determined by the globalized
nature of certain segments of the labor market. La-
ter on, professional training did contribute to both
the improvement of the qualicaon rate while
facilitang the educaon-economy linkages, but,
with mixed results and a lot of issues sll in need of
Figure 15. Naonal rate of youth unemployment by region (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Rural Urban Rural Urban
15 - 24 25 - 34
2010 2011Q1 2011Q2
Source :Haut Commissariat au Plan
Figure 14. Naonal rate of unemployment by age, quarterly (%)
0
5
10
15
20
15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+
2010Q2 2011Q2
Source : Haut Commissariat au Plan
Figure 16. Naonal rate of youth unemployment by gender, quarterly (%)
5
10
15
20
Women Men Women Men
15 - 24 25 - 34
2010Q2 2011Q2
Source : Haut Commissariat au Plan
-177-
strengthening among which those related to youth
unemployment.
One needs to look at potenal determinants of
emloyment access for the Moroccan youth who gra-
duated from the vocaonal training system, accor-
ding to Schonholzer (2008), two elements are of cru-
cial importance in the Moroccan case. First, the age
of the graduates is found to be negavely correlated
to job access, hence, younger graduates appear to
have a higher probability of geng a job which is so-
mething that may appear contrary to pre-concieved
ideas. It could be that the jobs obtained are under-
paid and require lile qualicaon but the study does
not dig into more detailed analysis. Second, employ-
ment appears to be linked to the profession of the
graduates father. This can be interpreted in many
ways, it could mean that family connecons can act
as a facilitator in nding a job, it could also mean that
the children of senior execuves have been raised in
a safer nancial environment, one that values educa-
on and obtaining a qualied job.
It is overall clear that there is a great need for an edu-
caonal and vocaonal training reform in Morocco
from which employment would benet. But at the
same me, there is a need to provide the necessary
incenves to orient the youth towards producve em-
ployment. In a relevant arcle, Boudarbat (2008) nds
that earnings and unemployment duraons have a
considerable impact on employment selecon. The
author nds that the wage premium of the public sec-
tor (inial hourly wages gap) is close to 42.5%, hence,
a 1% increase in the public-private lifeme earnings
gap is the equivalent of queuing up to 5.3 months for
a job in the public sector. This means that an adjust-
ment of public remuneraons in Morocco would be in
order to avoid a higher unemployment rate.
3. What policies for the youth ?
Aer recent protests, authories proceeded to the
recruitment of over 4,000 PhD students within the
public sector. Even so, this could be only characteri-
zed as a termporary soluon. Short term emergency
programs can allow for the integraon of the unem-
ployed Moroccan youth, in sectors such as public
works and construcon, but the most important are
the long term ones, in other words policies that fos-
ter an employment-intensive growth regime. Focu-
sing on ICT related sectors should be the way to po-
gressively inverse the tendency that wants students
to go to less growth-carrier sectors.
The Bank al-Maghreb Governor recently stated (Ma-
gharebia, 2011) that Morocco should open up both
the public and private sectors to the youth, providing
the necessary skills all the while reforming the voca-
onal training system. This seems logic as suggested
by previous secons, a reform in the educaonal and
training systems is of great importance in the Moroc-
can case since the quality of the educaon provided
Figure 17. Average science and mathemacs scale scores of 4th-grade students, Morocco VS the World: 2007
297
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Source : IES, Naonal Center for Educaon Stascs, U.S. Department of Educaon
341
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-178-
is low and creates an educaon-employment mis-
match. Currently, less than 20% of formal manufactu-
ring rms provide training to their employees, versus
50% in the developing world (Achy, 2010).
One should also not forget that limited jobs in
the private sector greatly contributed to youth
unemployment. Hence, as also suggested by Bou-
darbat (2008), more investment in human capi-
tal is needed. It appears that authories plan on
going towards that path. The ministry of nance
announced that measures to train young people
while providing them income during training. Fur-
thermore, negoaons with businesses are ex-
pected to start on the recruitment of graduates
at the end of their training (targeng 150000 new
jobs in 2011, 30000 more than in 2010).
Finally, there is a labor market regulaon issue to
be dealt with. Currently, Morocco has one of the
most rigid labor regulaons in the Maghreb world
and that is on both the hiring and ring side. But
all these regulaons do not concern the agricul-
tural workers or those of the informal sector, who
represent the majority of workers (70% of wage
earners in Morocco do not have an employment
contract according to Achy, 2010). Hence, social
partners and all interested pares should provide
a new labor regulaon framework, one that ease
entry to and reduce inequality the formal labor
market.
IV. Concluding Remarks
The country is steps ahead of its Mediterranean nei-
ghbours since it has married democrac reforms with
its growth model. Moreover, despite the regional
context, the economy is expected to regain its growth
momentum, expecng a rate of growth close to the
3% mark in 2011 before growth picks up considerably
later on. Finally, the rate of unemployment has fallen
below the Mediterranean average and is not expec-
ted to rise in the coming years.
But, if the regional socio-economic crisis has
taught us anything it is that countries that were
labelled stable are often more frragile than what
they seem. Hence, in the Moroccan case authori-
ties should take all necessary measures to avoid
a contagion of sorts inspired from the Egyptian
and Tunisian events.
With that in mind :
First, as already noted by FEMISE in earlier
reports, the country should embrace a model
that allows distributional shifts in favor of the
poorest quintiles which appear to have benefi-
ted the least from growth.
Second, it should follow an educational
and vocational training reform to further com-
bat youth unemployment all the while provi-
ding greater incentives to orient the youth to-
wards productive sectors that will carry future
growth.
Third, authorities should sustain investment
in the tourism sector to counterweigh a possi-
ble impact from recent happenings through va-
rious infrastructural projects that also sustain
employment. They should also allow for FDI
projects to emerge throughout the territory and
avoid concentration of foreign capital in limited
Figure 18. Moroccan exports by trading partner (2000 AND 2009)
EU27
81%
Russia
1%
India
4%
China
0%
ASEAN
5%
GCC
0%
MERCOSU
R
MPs
2%
NAFTA
5%
OTHER
1%
EU27
OTHER
NAFTA
MPs
MERCOSUR
GCC
ASEAN
China
India
Russia
Source : EIU
EU27
74%
Russia
1%
India
6%
China
1%
ASEAN
4%
GCC
0%
MERCOSU
R
MPs
5%
NAFTA
4%
OTHER
2%
EU27
OTHER
NAFTA
MPs
MERCOSUR
GCC
ASEAN
China
India
Russia
-179-
urban regions. Currently, Casablanca represents
more than a third of announced FDI projects
but Tangiers and Rabat have been gaining wait,
respectively with 12% and 8% of FDI announce-
ments in 2010 (ANIMA).
Last but not least, the trade decit risks to es-
calate massively which means the country should
rethink its openness strategy to allow for further
diversicaon. The truth of the maer is that the
EU sll represents about three quarters of Moroc-
can trade and there is sll great potenal to diver-
sify. For instance, trade with the NAFTA region only
represents 4% of Moroccan exports (down from
5% in 2000) while trade relaons with big markets
such as China and Russia roughly represent a total
of 2%. Further trade diversicaon would migate
the fall in EU demand and parally shield Morocco
from external shocks.
Notes:
1. The J-curve approximaon is obtained plong the
polical instability index (EIU) to the index of de-
mocracy 2010 (EIU).
We obtain a quadrac equaon that represents a si-
mlpied relaonship between the two indexes and
takes the form of :
Y= 5.2547 - 8.7419*LnX + 9.3128*lnX^2
where X is the EIU democracy indicator of 2010 and Y
the inversed polical instability index (polical stability)
Sources :
Achy L. (2010), Trading High Unemployment for
Bad Jobs: Employment Challenges in the Ma-
ghreb , Carnegie Papers, No 23, June.
Ben Naceur, Ben-Khediri and Casu (2011), What
Drives the Performance of Selected MENA
Banks? A Meta-Froner Analysis , IMF Working
Paper, WP/11/34, February.
Boudarbat B. (2008), Job-Search Strategies and
the Unemployment of University Graduates in
Morocco , Internaonal Research Journal of Fi-
nance and Economics, Issue 14.
Carnegie (2011), Arab Youth Unemployment: Roots,
Risks, and Responses , Beirut, February 10th.
Digital Journal (2011), Pro-democracy protests
spread to Morocco; 5 killed in mass unrest , Fe-
bruary 21st.
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) (2011) Country
Forecast: Morocco The Economist Intelligence
Unit: United Kingdom. Various issues.
FEMISE (2008), Evaluaon of the Professional
Training System and its Impacts on Develop-
ment: Comparison Between Morocco and Tuni-
sia , Research report no FEM31-23, directed by
Jamal Bouoiyour.
FEMISE (2010), FEMISE report on the EuroMedi-
terranean Partnership 2010 : The EuroMediter-
ranean Partnership at Crossroads, directed by
Jean-Louis Reiers, November.
Haut Commissariat au Plan (2011), Allocuon de
Monsieur Ahmed Lahlimi Alami, Haut Commis-
saire au Plan sur La situaon de lemploi et du
chmage au Maroc et ses dterminants structu-
rels et poliques dans un contexte de transion
, Confrence de presse Casablanca, 11 mai.
HindustanTimes (2011), Reforms, open society keeps
uprising o in Morocco, September 27th.
ILO (2011), Youth Employment and Social Dia-
logue in the Maghreb Region , Jrgen Schwe-
mann, ILO Deputy Regional Director for Africa;
Brussels, 19 April 2011
Magharebia (2011), Youth unemployment per-
sists in Morocco , April 6th.
Marcopolis.net (2011), Invest in Morocco: Op-
portunies to Invest in Morocco , March 30th.
MoroccoBoard (2010), Morocco : Assessing De-
mocracy Assistance), June 28th.
MoroccoWorldNews (2011), Moroccos trade de-
cit hits record in July, August 17th.
New York Times (2011), Protesters in Morocco
Seek Quicker Shi to Democracy and Denounce
Terror , May 1st.
Schonholzer J. (2008), Les dterminants de lac-
cs lemploi chez les jeunes diplms de la
formaon professionnelle au Maroc , Mmoire
-180-
prsent la Facult des tudes suprieures en
vue de lobtenon du grade de matrise en rela-
ons industrielles, dirig par Brahim Boudarbat,
Universit de Montral.
TopMorocco.com (2011), Moroccos tourism re-
venues to increase , May 9th.
Yacout.Info (2011), Morocco: Breathing new life
into the markets, September 14th.
-181- -181-
SYRIA: Is there potenal for an Arab Spring?
Introducon
While most Mediterranean countries witnessed
a relave rebound from depressed growth rates
in 2009, this did not happen in Syria, following a
poor harvest which aected the growth of its agri-
culture sector. Encouraged by uprisings in Egypt
and Tunisia, and fuelled by discontent with severe
polical repression, demonstraons broke out in
Syria as of last March. To date, the government
has oered limited polical reforms to the oppo-
sion and has resorted to violence to crackdown
on the protestors.
Clearly, the political unrest has led to disrup-
tions in usual business activities but there have
not been sufficient data releases to support
this. Nevertheless, forecasts for the year 2011
are as follows:
GDP growth is forecasted decline to -2%
(IMF esmate), following polical turmoil,
Exports and imports (volume) are expec-
ted to contract respecvely by 2.6% and 11.8%
according to IMF,
The current account decit is expected to
quadruple to 4% of GDP from around 1% in 2010,
Inaon is expected to increase from
4.4% in 2010 to 6-7%, following the rise in inter-
naonal commodity prices,
The scal decit is expected to double to
8% of GDP, following revenue losses,
Heavy withdrawals in private deposits
(by about US$1.4 billion) lead the central bank of
Syria to impose some foreign exchange controls,
The official exchange rate has remained
surprisingly stable but the black market has re-
appeared with a premium of almost 15%.
I. The limitaons of the polical economy model
Syria has been governed by the Baath party
since 1963 which, for most of that time has, in
turn, been dominated by the Assad family and
associated members of its Alawi sect. Syria en-
joys limited options for political participation
and restrictions to civil liberties. Some reforms
were initiated since the mid-1980s but they ne-
ver dealt with domestic politics, despite presi-
dential promises to do so (Aita, 2006 and Co-
lombo, 2011).
Unlike many neighboring countries, Syria had
already witnessed some political unrest in the
early 2000s, emanating mainly from the civil so-
ciety with demands of freedom of expression,
and in 2005, calling for political change. All such
movements were met with strong repression
(Colombo, 2011).
Syria seemed to be somewhat inially insulated
from the wave of popular uprisings in the Arab
World iniated in the beginning of 2011, largely
because the government imposed a very ght con-
trol on freedom of expression, especially through
internet websites and social media plaorms (Co-
lombo, 2011). The inial reacon of the Syrian
president to the rst uprising in Tunisia was to ex-
press sympathy, then like Jordan and Morocco, to
oer some concessions and supercial reforms as
a means to preempt an escalaon of the domesc
situaon in Syria. These included liing the ban
on Facebook last February, in addion to oering
some polical reforms comprising the abolion of
the 1963 emergency law, scrapping the Supreme
State Security Court and passing a law entling
people to hold demonstraons, subject to their
obtaining a license from the Ministry of Interior.
However, the wave of anti-government unrest
eventually hit the country since March 2011.
Colombo (2011) explains that while uprisings
in neighbouring economies had a role in trigge-
ring the same incidents in Syria, others factors
of unsustainability may have played a role
like widespread corruption, the increasing gap
between the ruling elite and the population. Ac-
cording to EIU (2011), President Assad has con-
tinued to offer some political reforms, though
-182- -182-
limited, such as appointing a new government
and approving new election and political par-
ties laws that respectively regulate elections
through a new independent commission and al-
lows the founding of independent political par-
ties. The president is also making promises for
new parliamentary elections in February 2012
and on local government reforms.
Yet, as these actions were deemed insufficient,
Syrians have gathered a stronger momentum fol-
lowing stronger mobilization through text mes-
sages and postings on social media platforms,
and were able to break their historical fear of
the security forces. In reply, the regime has led
a most aggressive crackdown against protestors,
with a death toll estimated at 2200, many more
wounded, and an estimated 8,000 arrested, sin-
ce the uprising until August 2011. Moreover, it
was reported that roughly 10,000 refugees from
Northern Syria had crossed into Turkey, fleeing
the army last June (EIU, 2011).
1. Polical instability will be endured, if Syria
were to break free
The J-curve below suggests that countries that
have authoritarian regimes are generally stable
and when openning-up their regimes to democra-
cy, they enter a short phase of instability before
before reaping the benets of a more democrac
economy and instuons. Figure 1 shows that Sy-
rias posion on the le hand side of the curve,
which is before the turning point, thus making
it closer to an authoritarian regime than to an
open one.
Moreover, Syrias posion on the J-curve also
suggests that there is enormous potenal for de-
mocrazaon eorts. This would of course be de-
pendent on how the situaon develops and this is
very dicult to predict. Colombo (2011) explains
that Syria has a peculiar situaon that would not
necessarily mean that events will unfold in the
same manner they did in Egypt and Tunisia and
this is due to several factors. First, Syrian protests
have erupted in dened pockets rather than as
naon-wide protests like those witnessed in Egypt
and Tunisia. Second, the protestors do not form
a clearly dened group. Third and more impor-
tantly, the regime has resorted to violence to su-
prress the protests and is sll stubbornly clinging
to power with the hope of leading the process
of change. Of course, this could not have happe-
ned without the support of the army which has
completely aligned their strategies with those of
the regime, a crucial dierence with Tunisia and
Egypt. Other factors to be taken into account is
the large mobilisaon of pro-regime supporters,
even though they are believed to be created by
the regime itself. Also, Colombo (2011) explains
that two factors interplay in favour and against the
president, his past popularity and achievements
which had large domesc and foreign appeal, vs.
his ability to live up to popular expectaons.
Should the protestors succeed in toppling the
regime, the country would start its democrac
transion which would be
associated with some short-
term instability, like what is
witnessed in Tunisia and
Egypt. Alternavely, if the
regime succeeds in repres-
sing the protests, then the-
re is a risk that the country
adopts a proteconist stan-
ce in an eort to preserve
the polical status-quo. In
Figure 1. Syria on the world J-Curve (2010)
Syria
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stability
Democracy
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indicator, Index of Democracy.
-183-
this scenario, it is unlikely that there will be signi-
cant reforms towards genuine democrazaon
in Syria. And even though some reforms may be
undertaken, they will be supercial especially if
they are carried out by the old guard.
2. Issues of governance, false reforms
Indicators of governance can provide valuable in-
sights, though their reliability should be treated
cauously. As shown by gure 2, all governance
indicators were negave between 2000 and 2009,
like Egypt, indicang a bad performance. Moreover,
they have all deteriorated except for government ef-
fecveness and regulatory quality. Indicators of Voi-
ce and Accountability, polical stability, rule of law
and corrupon have all worsened in one decade. Sy-
ria has a score of 2.5 in Transparency Internaonals
Corrupon Percepons Index for 2010 and ranks
127th out of 178 countries and ranks last among
MPs (Transparency Internaonal, 2010).
II. Crisis, response and short-term prospects
1. Oil sancons put pressures on trade and pe-
rhaps the regime
Syrian external finances are expected to come
under significant pressure in 2011. In particular,
the forecasts are as follows:
An estimated contraction in both exports
and imports (volume) by respectively 2.6%
and 11.8% according to IMF data,
The current account deficit is expected to
quadruple to 4% of GDP from around 1% in
the year 2010.
There are no official figures released for 2010
but IMF estimates show a recovery in merchan-
dise exports (volume) which grew by 20% com-
pared to a contraction by almost 19% last year.
Meanwhile, merchandise import growth (vo-
lume) remained positive at 5% but significantly
slower than last years pace of 24.5%. This led to
an improvement of the current account deficit
to 1.3% of GDP from 2.2% of GDP a year ago.
In the aftermath of domes-
tic developments, exports
are assumed to have taken
a strong hit following some
business disruptions. The
recent sanctions on oil ex-
ports can be particularly
harmful to Syrias exter-
nal finances. According to
2009 data from the Central
Figure 2. Syrias governance indicators
-1,8
-1,6
-1,4
-1,2
-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Voice &
Accountability
Political
Stability No
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note: Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
Figure 3. Export composion, 2009, percent
27,1%
10,9%
9,4%
Crude Oil Textiles Fruits,Veget. and Prep. there of
Source: Central Bank of Syria
Figure 4. Geographical composion of exports, 2009, percent
17,3%
52,5%
30,2%
Arab Countries European Union
Other
Source: Central Bank of Syria
-184-
Bank of Syria, crude oil exports accounted for
around 27% of total exports (figure 3). Moreo-
ver, a bit less than a third of Syrian exports and
as much as 95% of oil exports are destined to
Europe (figure 4).
Despite an increase in international oil pri-
ces, Syrian exports are expected to decline by
around -2.6%, as a result of the EU sanctions
which could be partly mitigated by finding alter-
native buyers, probably at a discounted price,
but also as non-oil exports decline as a result
of political unrest. Imports will also decline (by
11%) as political uncertainty depresses consu-
mer confidence and better harvests make Syria
more self-sufficient in food. The impact of chan-
ges in oil prices on the trade balance is limited,
because Syrias imports of refined products are
about equal in value to its exports of crude oil.
Tourism receipts are expected to plummet du-
ring 2011-12 following the recent public unrest.
The current-account deficit is expected to nearly
quadruple to 4% of GDP (figure 5).
2. Considerable impact on nancial inows
Following rising polical tensions, Syria has witnessed
an FDI decline by approximately two-thirds in early
2011 (ANIMA). Plans for future investment in Syria
are also being halted. For instance, the aucon for a
license to operate the third mobile-phone network
in Syria has been postponed indenitely. Despite
governments connued eorts in inving bids for li-
censes to explore for oil and gas, further drops could
be expected as the situaon fails to stabilize quickly.
Polical concerns have been reected in the con-
nued falls in the Damascus Securies Exchange
(DSE) index, which on July 20th dropped to 990
below 1000 for the rst me since its launch, and
from a peak of a high point of 1,752 in mid-De-
cember 2010. The market made some gains in the
following days. By late August, the index had lost
almost 50% of its value. Trading days have been
cut from four per week to three in response to
the losses.
III. Main macro-balances
1. Syrias weak rebound in 2010 is further under-
mined by polical situaon
While most Mediterranean countries witnessed a
relave rebound from depressed growth rates in
2009, this did not happen in Syria. Central Bank
provisional gures show that real GDP growth
was 3.2% in 2010, down from 6% in 2009. This
modest performance is believe to be the result
of a contracon in the agriculture sector (8.7% of
GDP in 2009), of 4% in 2010 aer 12% growth in
2009, aer a poor harvest in 2010. In addion, in-
creased food imports also migated the posive
growth eects related to increased oil producon
and buoyant tourism.
So far, major oil companies have reported that
producon has been unaected by the unrest, al-
though there are reports of sabotage against some
pipelines, which might cause some delays in deli-
very. Nevertheless, the polical situaon and the
ensuing disrupons in business acvity is expected
to have a toll on growth which is forecasted to drop
to 0.2% in 2011 (gure 6), although IMF esmates
are much more pessimisc, forecasng a contrac-
on in growth by around 2%. Polical instability is
also likely to deter investment in most areas, except
for the oil and gas sector. On the sectoral side, af-
ter a poor harvest in 2010, there are signs that the
agricultural sector will recover in 2011-12. Services
will decline in line with a major decrease in tourist
arrivals, especially from Western states.
Figure. 5. Current account decit, percent of GDP
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources : EIU
-185-
The government has taken some measures with
the purpose of alleviating the economic impact
of political events. Right before Ramadan, tariff
rates on a number of intermediate goods im-
ported by local industries, as well as on foods-
tuffs, were lowered. The government has also
announced that it is considering lowering the
age of retirement for public-sector employees
to 52 from 60 (with a full pension of 75% of fi-
nal earnings guaranteed provided the employee
has worked for 30 years), as a means to open up
job opportunities for young people.
2. Unemployment
On a related note, unemployment has remained
around 8% in 2010, the same level as in 2009.
Unemployment could increase sharply especial-
ly if business disruptions occur in the manufac-
turing sector (around 52% of total employment)
(figure 7).
3. Inaon is on the rise but remains moderate
After having declined steadily through 2009 to
slightly negative rates, in tandem with lower
world commodity prices, inflation increased
again averaging around 4.4% in 2010 (from 2.8%
in 2009). In particular, inflation has picked-up
in end-2010, peaking at 7.2% in January 2011.
It has been very volatile since then, fluctuating
between 3 and 5%, (figure 8). Rising prices since
June have been largely due to rising food prices
(up by 11.6% in July 2011 compared to 0.3% in
July 2010) and to some extent the increase in
liquidity resulting from the hike in state em-
ployees salaries and tax cuts promised during
March. It is claimed that actual price increases
were not as high as expected reflecting (i) an im-
proved wheat harvest, which has limited Syrias
exposure to rising international prices, (ii) the
governments decision to lower diesel prices by
20% on April 1st. For 2011, headline inflation is
projected to increase in line with international
commodity prices to around 6-7%.
IV. Macroeconomic responses
1. The scal decit nearly doubles
The scal decit is esmated to have slightly wi-
dened in 2010, to 4.4% of GDP from 4% in 2009,
following increased expenditure to 26.5% from
25.7% of GDP and only slight improvement in s-
cal revenues (esmated around 22.1% of GD in
2010). Recent spending pledges and the loss of
expected revenue from the aucon of the third
mobile-phone license are likely to result in a de-
terioraon of the scal decit to a bit less than a
double, to 8% of GDP. The revenue losses could be
in part aributed to the reducon in aid received
from the EU, which has lately suspended aid to
Figure 6. GDP growth, percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : EIU
Figure 8. CPI inaon, percent
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
jan-
09
avr-
09
juil-
09
oct-
09
jan-
10
avr-
10
juil-
10
oct-
10
jan-
11
avr-
11
juil-
11
Source : Central Bank of Syria
Figure 7. Employment by sector, 2009, percent
26,7%
12,3%
35,4%
12,2%
13,4%
Foodstuff and
Beverages
Textile and Yarn
other manufacturing
Extractive Industries
Electricity & Water
Industries
Sources : Central Bank of Syria
-186-
Syria. The EU has provided more than 1.1 billion
in nance to Syria, in parcular to energy projects
in the amount of 615 million loans provided by
the EIB for the construcon of power staons and
transmission and distribuon systems
2. Capital ight and heavy deposit withdrawals
pushed the Central Bank to impose foreign ex-
change controls
The polical unrest seems to be having some adver-
se eects on Syrias nancial sector. Heavy deposit
withdrawals from banks were reported since last
March. Overall bank deposits have fallen by 8.7%
by end of April, recording an oulow equivalent to
US$2.6 billion. The public-sector banks, which ac-
count for 73% of Syrias total commercial bank as-
sets, have declined by 7.1%, or a total of US$ 1.3
billion. However, the biggest fall was in private sec-
tor demand deposits, which fell by about US$ 1.4
billion, recording a fall of 15% between January and
June 2011. Foreign currency deposits fell by about
US$ 300 million from just under US$ 4 billion at
end-January. It would seem that the bulk of the wi-
thdrawals occurred in the inial period of unrest.
This has led the Central Bank of Syria to adopt
some measures as of last May that include: (i)
increasing interest rates both on Syrian pound
deposits (by 300 basis points), and on foreign
exchange rate deposits to 2-3% over the bench-
mark Libor rate for US dollars and 1-2% over Li-
bor for euros, (ii) lowering the statutory reserve
ratio to 5% from 10%, with a possibility of redu-
cing it to zero if the portion of deposits is de-
voted to financing
projects, (iii) some
foreign exchange
controls. Such con-
trols include res-
tricting the sale of
foreign exchange
to Syrian residents
(only US$1,000 in
a month and only
three times a year), or to those who need to
finance imports with the requirement that the
seller registers each sale so that the authorities
can check that the funds have been used for the
purpose stated. Syrians will still be entitled to
withdraw foreign exchange, but it will be more
difficult to convert Syrian pound holdings into
hard currency. Also, travelers are entitled to buy
foreign exchange freely, but only twice a year
and on presenting valid travel documents and
stating the intended date of departure. Final-
ly, Syrians can make a one-off purchase up to
US$120,000 per year on condition that it is left
in a term deposit account. The funds will earn
interest, but this will be deducted in the event
that the funds are withdrawn before the mini-
mum term of three months.
Despite these developments, the official ex-
change rate has remained surprisingly stable at
about Syrian Lira/US$ 47.6. However, the black
market erupted again where the exchange rate
has weakened to Syrian Lira/US$ 52. As a re-
sult of measures adopted by the CBS, the gap
between rates had started to narrow. The go-
vernment has also stated that foreign exchange
reserves remain at a comfortable level of about
US$18bn, sufficient to cover more than one
years imports. This would also allow the Cen-
tral Bank to defend the currency.
3. Banking sector
Data from the World Bank Financial Structure Da-
tabase indicate that the concentraon rao (sha-
Figure 9. Banking Sector Indicators: Syria vs. the world (2009)
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
Overheads/ Total
Assets
Net Interest
Margin
Concentration Return on Assets Return on Equity
Syria MPs Lower Mid. Income High Income
Source : World Bank Financial Structure Database
-187-
re of the 3 largest banks assets to total banking
assets) is lower compared to the rest of the world
(value of 0.33 in Syria versus 0.745 in the region)
which means that banking compeon might not
be low. But, return on equity (0.03) is lower com-
pared to the rest of the region (0.314) and high in-
come economies (0.208). The net interest margin
of Syrian banks is also lower than the Mediterra-
nean average (0.038 vs. 0.041) (gure 9).
Recently, Syrian banks have increased their capi-
tal in order to comply with the requirements of a
law passed at the start of 2010 allowing the fo-
reign shareholding in private banks to rise to 60%
from 49%, and at the same me raising the mi-
nimum capital for convenonal banks to US$200
million from US$30 million and for Islamic banks
to US$300 million from US$100 million.
V. Conclusion:
Compared to most of its southern Mediterranean
neighbors, Syrias polical and security situaon is
the most unstable. The protestors have not been
successful in pung sucient pressure on the
ruler either to step down or to respond to their
demands. The security situaon is alarming, given
the regimes aggressive stance towards the pro-
testors. It is very dicult to make accurate pre-
dicons about the near-term developments but it
is clear that the polical unrest has led to some
business disrupons that have undermined the
already weak recovery witnessed in 2010. It will
most certainly weigh on Syrias near-term growth
prospects.
Notes:
1. The J-curve approximaon is obtained plong the
polical instability index (EIU) to the index of de-
mocracy 2010 (EIU).
We obtain a quadrac equaon that represents a si-
mlpied relaonship between the two indexes and
takes the form of :
Y= 5.2547 - 8.7419*LnX + 9.3128*lnX^2
where X is the EIU democracy indicator of 2010
and Y the inversed polical instability index (poli-
cal stability)
References:
Central Bank of Syria (2011)
DayPress (2011), Turkey: Uncertainty dominates
Trade with Syria, October 10th.
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) (2011) Country
Report: Syria. The Economist Intelligence Unit:
United Kingdom. Various issues.
FEMISE (2006), Syria Country Prole: The Road
Ahead for Syria, February.
ForwardSyria (2009), From illiteracy to success:
Entrepreneurial women in rural Syria change
their lives through training and microcredit,
08/01/2009 - Issue 30.
Guardian (2011), Syrian economy weakens under
strain of insurrecon and sancons, September
28th.
IMF (2011), World Economic Outlook: Slowing
Growth, Rising Risks, September.
Mitchell, Laura E. (2010), Youth engagement in
Syria: Expected but not encouraged, Fafo-pa-
per 2010:01.
SlateAfrique (2011), Syrie-Algrie: mme com-
bat?, 02/09/2011.
World Bank Financial Structure Database (2011)
-188-
-189- -189-
TUNISIA : Entering a phase of transition towards
democratic capitalism
Unl recently, one would think that Tunisia ma-
naged to cushion the eects of the internaonal
crisis at only a small price, that of an increased
scal decit and lower economic growth. Now,
recent events underscore how the damage was
much deeper, the sensivity of the domesc po-
pulaon to a decrease in living standards, one
that may seem bearable in richer economies, was
a determinant to social upheaval given the low li-
ving condions in several regions and provinces.
Hence, aer a series of consecuve demonstra-
ons throughout the territory, Tunisia entered
a profound social crisis that resulted in a drasc
change in the polical regime. But at the same
me, polical change towards more democracy
oers great hope for the future.
However, this renewed hope risks of being unful-
lled if Tunisia does not quickly acquire an image
of stability, one that is based on both favorable
expectaons of economic agents and a growth
regime that is also more inclusive. One should
not forget that economic policy in Tunisia was
globally eecve in the 2000s since total factor
producvity allowed increasing the countrys
compeveness, the real economy was solid due
to the economic upgrade programme and FDI had
picked up.
Indeed, while the old-polical model might have
tackled the issue of economic development, it pro-
ved to be largely below expectaons from a social
point of view, dilang the social space. As in most
MPs, but perhaps even more than elsewhere,
the Tunisian youth has been plagued by massive
unemployment. Thus, university graduates would
either choose to migrate or, for the less fortunate,
nd underpaid and underqualied jobs that did
not match their skills.
Up unl early 2010, the challenge for Tunisia was
to manage the fall in internaonal demand due to
the economic crisis and maintain investment all
the while coping with budget limitaons. But now
the challenge is much more profound, the country
also needs to show that it is determined to make
the necessary steps towards social peace, by ad-
dressing the core issue of youth unemployment, by
balancing its reforms, by improving its government
administraon and by following a path to demo-
cracy. These elements are all pre-requisites to the
country regaining its status of a reform economy in
the Mediterranean, one that is straying away from
its past insuciencies all the while embracing and
deepening its economic success.
Regarding the latest developments in Tunisia, at
the moment this report was wrien, one would
note the following:
Economic growth is currently expected to
be negave (-0.7%) in 2011 (versus an esmated
3% inially). Riots roughly cost 3 billion dinars to
the economy (1.6 billion Euros), equivalent to 4%
of GDP. About 2 billion dinars were lost because of
the stop in domesc economic acvity and 1 billion
from the exports being halted.
Tourism, represenng 6.5% of GDP has
already been greatly hit and could further increase
unemployment (13% in 2010, esmated at a mas-
sive 16.6% in 2011). Thousands of tourists ew out
of Tunisia during late 2010 and tour operators have
asked for an emergency plan. Tourism decline and
deterioraon of the trade balance should bring a
n important 7.9% current account decit (versus a
2.2% decit in 2010).
FDI for 2011 looks worrisome, in the
first two months of 2011 it had reached 275.1
million dinars, a 21.7% year-on-year fall, foreign
investment is anticipated to degrade by 35.3%
to 1.1bn US$ in 2011. However, transport (espe-
cially by road), the technological infrastructure
and industrial zones are all in need of immedia-
te development which could create small-scale
projects in areas that have been neglected and
allow restoring much needed confidence to re-
bound from the shock.
-190-
The climate of instability brought inter-
naonal rang agencies to downgrade Tunisia. For
instance, Moodys Investors Service downgraded
the global local currency (GLC) and foreign curren-
cy (FC) deposit rangs of ve Tunisian banks.
Before the Tunisian social crisis, the do-
mesc stock-market enjoyed relavely healthy
fundamentals and was even viewed as the best
performing market in the enre MENA region. In
mid-April 2011, the Tunisian Bourse would show
total losses of 17.16% versus an 11.2% gain in the
same period of 2010.
The import-cover rao fell to approxima-
tely 5 months of imports in end 2010. Thus, Tuni-
sia had fallen to reserves levels of 2006, a fact that
should be monitored in the coming years. Recent
esmaons point to further degradaon to only 3
months of imports.
Inial plans to reduce subsidies and in-
crease taxes seem inappropriate. The new govern-
ment will need to increase social transfers and
subsidies to prevent more riots. But, Tunisia has
a large budget decit (esmated at 4.6% of GDP
in 2010). The budget decit will increase to about
9.1% of GDP in 2011 and will need to be contained
in the years that follow.
Inaon aained 4.4% in 2010, as food
prices increased, it should fall to 4% in 2011. The
Central Bank will probably maintain a ght mone-
tary policy ensuring that inaon remains largely
under control. In the short term, the central bank
will focus on maintaining economic growth, par-
cularly growth in exports, in light of weak expan-
sion in the EU. Full currency
liberalisaon will probably
be delayed for some years.
An extended ouall
on unemployment is pro-
bable in 2011, unl now 33
foreign companies ceased
operaons resulng in the
loss of 2400 job posions.
Meanwhile, the majority of
job-seekers sll appear to be
comprised of women.
Moreover, while Tunisia enjoyed good
macroeconomic performances it did not manage
to eciently reduce youth unemployment. The
unprecedented unemployment of young gradua-
tes is probably the biggest challenge to overcome.
Young people are more aected by unemployment
than the rest, which produces discouraged wor-
kers eects as well as social exclusion. A double
crisis-induced eect weighs on the youth: rst, a
decrease in labour demand means that new en-
trants are more aected and second, employment
destrucon is currently more youth-oriented. Tu-
nisian professional integraon programs could be
more ecient for those with a degree in a eld that
is prone to unemployment such as social sciences
and other disciplines.
I. The polical situaon and its implicaons
The polical model in a crucial transitory phase
Tunisia is in a state of unparalleled polical uncertain-
ty. Following the largest uprising Tunisia ever faced,
ex-president Ben Ali ed the country, social protests
and violence connued for several weeks while the
third interim government is now making eorts to or-
ganise democrac elecons that should lead to a bet-
ter representaon of all polical currents. We should
note, in parcular, the impressive issuance of a law
imposing that the vong lists are composed of 50%
of women. It remains that a long path is sll ahead
of the new authories for the instuons of the old
monarchy to be rebuilt.
Figure 1. Tunisias Governance Indicators
-1,4
-1,2
-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Voice &
Accountability
Political Stability
No Violence
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
Source : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note : Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
-191-
One should take into account the amplitude of the
current task. To deal with this queson indicators
of governance can provide valuable insights, mainly
as to the evoluon of the Tunisian polical regime,
albeit always with some reservaons as to the per-
nence of an index that quanes governance.
It appears that in a decade Tunisia has improved in
terms of rule of law and very slightly on regulatory
quality. However, the country has witnessed its Voice
& Accountability, Polical Stability, Government Ef-
fecveness and Corrupon indicators considerably
worsen. Thus, while the country made considerable
steps in terms of economic growth since the Barce-
lona Process, it appears the polical scene followed
the opposite trajectory.
The current situaon highlights the fact that the
Tunisian polical model failed, it did so more par-
cularly with regards to two elements, that is the
rising cost of living and insucient employment
creaon. This highlights the fact that being the
most compeve economy in the connent does
not suce when the fruits of growth are not ac-
companied by more jobs, reducon in inequalies
and less corrupon.
The gure below explains the instability crisis fa-
ced by Tunisia as it moves from an authoritarian to
an open society. As explained by Bremmer (2006)
there is a counterintuive relaonship between
a naons stability and its openness, both to the
inuences of the outside world and within its bor-
ders . Certain states are stable because they are
closed, the inuence on the populaon from the
outside such as the improvement in the ability to
communicate (ex. through social networks) can
undermine the domesc regime and lead to so-
cial upheaval and instability. However, a country
that is stable because it is open will enjoy higher
levels of stability and long term gains that easily
outweigh the short term cost of transion.
However, for a closed country to become sta-
ble because of its openness a transional period
of instability has to be travelled as shown by the
J-curve. This is where Tunisia stands right now,
democracy and polical stability indicators posi-
on the country on the boom of the curve, at
a transional period in which more openness has
brought more instability. But Tunisia is also very
close to the turning point where more openness
in terms of democracy could progressively lead to
greater stability.
Thus the issue is the following: the Tunisian polical
regime can follow a route of reform towards demo-
cracy and its long-term benets, but, going through
an extended period of short-term instability. Or it
can follow the opposite route, seeking to fall-back
to stability in the short-run, but to the detriment of
democrac openness. The measures followed since
the fall of Ben Ali hint at the rst path.
In a short period of me, the transional
government(s) removed former ministers and
detained close associates linked to the previous
regime. Former polical prisoners were released
and exiled leaders can now return to Tunisia.
Meanwhile, interim authories have
shown polical exibility and less rigi-
dity than in neighbouring MPs in crisis
which stresses Tunisias uniqueness.
Cautious optimism can thus be applied
for the political future. The Tunisian
society could evolve towards real de-
mocratization with civil liberties and
not just a regime that is slightly less
authoritarian.
Figure 2. Tunisia on the world J-Curve (2010)
Tunisia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stability
Democracy
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indicator, Index
of Democracy. [1]
-192-
II. The implicaons of recent developments
1. Real sector
The social crisis has had a clear impact on the Tunisian
economy. Riots have already cost 3 billion dinars to the
economy (1.6 billion Euros), equivalent to 4% of GDP.
Transmission of the crisis can be felt at varying degrees
through the main aggregates summarized below:
About 2 billion dinars were lost because of the
stop of domesc economic acvity and 1 billion
because of the stop in exports, consequently in
2011 exports are expected to increase by only
7.2% to 17.9bn US$,
A 10.7% rise in the imports bill is also expected
bringing it to an ancipated 22.7bn US$ in 2011,
Thus, the trade deficit expected to rise by
23.7% in 2011, going from -3.8bn US$ in 2010
to 4.7bn US$ in 2011,
Tourism, representing 6.5% of GDP was
greatly hit; thousands of tourists flew out of
Tunisia while tour operators have asked for an
emergency plan to re-launch the sector. As a
result the service balance is expected to fall by
28% to 1.8bn US$ in 2011,
Tunisia was the rst Mediterranean economy to
enter an Associaon Agreement with the EU and
had proceeded to important tari dismantling while
trade became an important growth engine. But, in
2009 exports declined following the internaonal
crisis and overdependence to developed partners
demand. In 2010 exports picked up by 16% but the
recent happenings in Tunisia are all but posive for
Tunisian trade, about 1 billion dinars were instantly
lost in the rst weeks of protests because of the stop
in exports. In January 2011 Tunisia registered a year-
on-year fall in equipment, agriculture, and other in-
termediate and other consumer products by respec-
vely 7.75%, 11.3%, 5.42% and 7.04%. But, exports
showed relave resilience during the internaonal
crisis and there was hope that this scenario could re-
peat itself in 2011 even parally. Thus, despite such
inial negave trends, most sectors have shown a
year-on-year increase as of mid-2011. In the rst six
months of the year Tunisia registered an important
year-on-year increase in energy (11.5%), other in-
termediate products (24.7%) and other consump-
on prodcucts (20.1%). As a result, revenues from
exports rose by 10.2% year on year in the rst seven
months of 2011. Meanwhile, demand from the EU
remains strong in spite of the euro zone debt crisis
(EIU). Thus, export earnings are expected to increase
by 7.2% to 17.9bn US$,
Meanwhile, imports in 2010 increased by 13.3% as
demand picked-up from the low it had reached the
prior year. That being said, recent gures point to
another import increase (of 10.7%), imports are ex-
pected to reach an ancipated 22.7bn US$ in 2011
led by the rising bill of agricultural and food imports.
The overall merchandise trade performance in
2010 caused the trade deficit to widen bringing
it to -3.8bn US$. But in 2011, the rather timid
export performance that is currently forecasted
Table 1. Exports by product group
Exports
six-months Variaons
2009 2010 2011
2009-
10
2010-
11
Agro-food industry 588,8 500,5 535,1 -15,0% 6,9%
Energy 1168,5 1610,8 1795,9 37,9% 11,5%
Mining & phosphates 783,6 875,3 721,5 11,7% -17,6%
Other intermediate 1875,1 2479,1 3092 32,2% 24,7%
Equipment 1418 1883,2 1962,3 32,8% 4,2%
Other consumpon 3683,7 3999,7 4803 8,6% 20,1%
Source: Instut Naonal de la Stasque
Table 2. Imports by product group
Imports
six-months Variaons
2009 2010 2011
2009-
10
2010-
11
Agro-food industry 658,5 812,6 1112,8 23,4% 36,9%
Energy 1034,6 1801,4 2181,3 74,1% 21,1%
Mining & phosphates 257,7 297,6 306,7 15,5% 3,1%
Other intermediate 4984,1 6232,9 6890,5 25,1% 10,6%
Equipment 3615,4 4927,9 4330 36,3% -12,1%
Other consumpon 1496,1 1719,4 1685,8 14,9% -2,0%
Source: Instut Naonal de la Stasque
-193-
brings the estimated figure to -4.7bn US$ (rou-
ghly -10% of GDP). If such deficit is reached it
will mark a negative performance record for the
Tunisian economy since such depths have not
been attained domestically since instigation of
the Barcelona process.
Finally, the service balance increased in 2010,
however, it is expected to shrink by 28% to 1.8bn
US$. Tourism is the main responsible for that ne-
gative performance, thousands of tourists flew
out of Tunisia during protests while the interim
tourism minister announced that revenues and
visits had fallen by roughly 40% in January 2011,
furthermore, the number of tourists dropped
by an additional 40% from January to mid-April
compared to 2010. Tourism is naturally of crucial
importance to the domestic economy, not only
does the sector employ 400,000 Tunisians and
contributes by 2.5bn US$ to GDP, it is also the
countrys first foreign currency earner. While se-
curity has been improved in Tunisia, it remains
to be seen if foreigners wish to return or if the
sector continues to suffer. Unfortunately, the
tourism issue in the Tunisian south appears trou-
bling. The island of Djerba, a famous destination
for tourists, sees half of its hotels shut which is
surprising considering peak season is approa-
ching. The incidents in Libya have naturally made
things worse since there is geographical proximi-
ty with the Tunisian south. Furthermore, among
the seven million tourists that come to Tunisia
annually more than 20% are from Libya which
can greatly affect inflows in the short-run at
least. Indeed, recent news suggest that the tou-
rism sector has plummeted by more than 50%. A
2 billion US$ loss in tourism revenues and trade
has been announced, in great part due to the
war in Libya (The Big Issue, 2011). An expected
destination-substitution effect to countries
with a similar climate (ex. Greece, Turkey) could
harm Tunisian tourism even more in the coming
years. This makes the request of Tunisian tour
operators for an emergency plan to re-launch
the sector all the more relevant and imperative.
2. Financial Shock
Tunisia is an economy with a nancial market at
an intermediate development stage, though with
an advanced level of nancial liberalizaon. Thus,
any shock, exogenous or domesc, would have a
moderate impact on the nancial sector, though
higher than in neighbouring partners.
2.1 Foreign investment declining
Meanwhile, FDI esmates for 2011 look worrisome.
Foreign investment fell by roughly 39.6% in 2009, it
midly started to pick-up in 2010 but is now anci-
pated to further degrade by 35.3%% to 1.1bn US$ in
2011. In the rst two months of 2011 foreign direct
investment had reached 275.1 million dinars, in other
terms this corresponds to a 21.7% year-on-year fall.
Energy and services represented together more than
half of investment inows, respecvely 120 million
dinars and 44.2 million dinars. Thus, the country will
have to face a double challenge, rst to try averng
further delays in current investment projects and se-
cond to aract foreign investors by providing a relia-
ble, transparent business environment that is free of
corrupon. Whether authories manage to deal with
this issue eciently will largely depend on what will
be done in the coming months. Transport (especially
by road), the technological infrastructure and indus-
trial zones are all in need of immediate development
which could create small-scale projects in areas that
have been neglected. Currently, it is to the countrys
benet that only 33 foreign companies have ceased
Figure 3 Trade Balance (% of GDP)
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
%
Source : EIU
-194-
operaons out of a total of 6 185, while most have
normally resumed their operaons. All this could al-
low restoring much needed condence domescally
but could also show the world that Tunisia can quickly
rebound from the shock.
2.2 Stock Market
Before the Tunisian social crisis, the domesc stock-
market enjoyed relavely healthy fundamentals with
no indicaons on speculave acvity. The stock-ex-
change was even viewed as the best performing
market in 2009 in the enre MENA region with a very
aracve asset price-dividend rao. But, starng
from the last quarter of 2010, the situaon started to
worsen and the stock-market index (Tunindex) mar-
ked a 9.82% decline in October 2010. This was surpri-
sing since the main rms that are part of the Bourse
showcased 50% gains during the last quarter. It is
possible that this trend reversal was iniated by the
announcement of a new bill that would impose taxa-
on on stock-benets. Whatever the case, the events
of the black October (Octobre noir) were shortly
followed by the greater social crisis, hence, polical
instability and the consequent fall in investors con-
dence further accentuated the trend reversal. In mid-
January, the Tunisian stock-market entered a two-
week suspension since the downfall of the previous
polical regime led to a 12% in only one week. Aer
reopening, for limited hours a day, acvity remained
mid with an addional 2% fall of the stock-index du-
ring re-opening. In late February, it was announced
that the stock market would suspend all trading ope-
raons to protect savings invested in equies.
In mid-April, the Tunisian Bourse would show some
signs of recovering, albeit in the week of April 18th
to April 22nd total losses would amount to 17.16%
versus an 11.2% gain in the same period of 2010. It
remains to be seen if the recent elecon of a new Pre-
sident of the Board of Directors of the Bourse des
Valeurs Mobilires de Tunisie will provide for greater
stability. But, it must be said that since end May 2011,
the stockmarket index Tunindex has been on the rise,
reaching a value of 470 in mid-September.
2.3 Foreign Reserves and Debt Indicators
Remarkably, foreign currency reserves had increased
by more than 50% in 2009, reaching almost 7 months
of imports in 2009, since tourism revenues had com-
pensated for the fall in trade income and lower import
value had reduced pressure.
But, as noced earlier, imports in 2010 increased by
more than 13% which explains why the import-cover
rao fell to approximately 5 months in end 2010. Thus,
Tunisia had fallen to reserves levels of 2006 and is now
esmated to have further degraded to the 3-month
threshold, a fact that should be monitored closely in
the coming years. The probable fall in the import bill
for 2011 might help cushion this recent downward
trend though opmism should be cauous.
Regarding Tunisian debt indicators, revised gures
for 2010 pinpoint external debt at 21.5bn US$ which
corresponds to a slight decline in absolute terms from
the 21.7bn US$ in 2009 but an increase in percentage
of GDP from 54.4% in 2009 to 55.5% in 2010. While
Tunisia did not manage to sustain its debt to the pre-
crisis level of 2008 (close to 50%) it sll maintained it
below the 60% threshold of the mid 2000s. While ex-
ternal debt stock has been increasing since the crisis,
it is expected to stabilize in 2011 before registering a
decrease starng from 2012.
As for the debt service rao, it stood at 9.5% in 2010,
down from 9.6% in 2008, with forecasts poinng to-
wards increases starng from 2012. It remains to be
seen how authories can follow a policy that allows
improving scal and current-account balances, redu-
Figure 4. Debt Indicators in Tunisia, % on GDP in parenthesis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total external debt (US$ bn) Debt-service ratio, paid (%)
(59,3%) (57,1%) (49,7%) (54,4%) (53,2%)
(56,3%)
(57,1%)
Source : EIU
-195-
cing the debt-service rao in a context of instability
and lessened condence from internaonal markets.
III. Economic Policy and Macro forecasts
1. Main developments
1.1 Growth : A regime that could benet from
adjustments
Last year, despite a decline in international de-
mand, Tunisia achieved a 3.7% rate of growth.
Nonetheless, to carry-on future growth, it is
deemed necessary to make additional efforts in
diversifying national exports by developing high
added-value products and services all the while
seeking new trade partners. However, recent
events could halt such policy initiatives. Some
estimations point towards a negative growth
rate of -0.7% in 2011 (EIU).
To a large extent domestic GDP is fueled by servi-
ces. Tradable services represent more than 40%
of GDP and during the first quarter of 2011 the
sector fell by approximately 3.8%. Transport and
wholesale traderespectively fell by 16.3% and
2.2% during the same period. Past diversification
efforts could partially shield Tunisia from the
outfall of the current crisis. Even so, its capacity
to rebound still depends on external demand
and thus, the expected fall in tourism revenues
could seriously impact growth and bring it to ne-
gative levels in 2011.
In last years report, FEMISE underscored how
Tunisia was following a fruitful growth regime
based on productivity. However, in the aftermath
of the economic crisis total factor productivity in
the country slowed down, while recent events
appear to have influenced on the productive
efficiency of the economic fabric (TFP for 2011
estimated at -0.2%).
The truth of the maer is that Tunisia has one of the
more robust growth regimes in the region. It also has
higher chances than most of its regional counterparts
to develop higher value-added products to maintain
its compeveness level. But, in a period where there
has been an outcry for beer redistribuon and op-
portunies, a transion period for the growth regime
Figure 5. Total Factor Producvity growth in Tunisia (Sour-
ce : EIU, esmates for 2011, 2012)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source : EIU
Table 3. GDP by sector grouping (by quarter, current prices)
Q1 2011 Q1 2010 Variaon (%)
Agriculture & shery 1262,1 1140,9 10,62
Manufacturing 2440 2471,5 -1,27
of which Texles,apparel, leather 460,5 448,5 2,68
Mechanic, electrical indusres 800,8 694,9 15,24
Non-Manufacturing 2034,1 2012,2 1,09
Tradable Services 6090,6 6331,6 -3,81
of which Wholesale trade 1145,8 1172,1 -2,24
Transport 1003,6 1199,8 -16,35
Total of Value Added 14127,1 14082,4 0,32
Source: Instut Naonal de la Stasque
-196-
will have to be expected. The transion towards a
more democrac capitalism could then lead to a,
hopefully permanent, economic rebound.
1.2 Employment : The new decades priority
The unemployment rate in Tunisia was at the 13%
mark in 2010 and risks to escalate in 2011. On ave-
rage, during the rst six months of 2011 employment
demand increased by an annualized 24.5% while sup-
plu decreased by 5.3% (Table 3). Unemployment, as
we will later discuss, it is considerably higher among
the youth. During the rst six months of 2011 em-
ployment demand among rst me job seekers had
increased year-on-year by 27.2%. On many occasions,
FEMISE has noted that the country is rich in qualied
human capital. The largest share of employment sup-
ply is located in the manufacturing sector, followed
distantly by other services, agriculture and tourism.
Again, a transion phase is needed. In simple terms,
the domesc economy not only needs to diversify
its growth sources but it also needs to diversify its
creaon of job posions across the economic fabric.
Developing new export oriented sectors must also go
hand in hand with the emergence of new jobs, the
creaon of new products should be accompanied by
new posions for the qualied, especially the youth.
While the previous government seemed to pursue
some eorts for more exible labour allocaon, the
current phase of instability might halt the process.
Let it be noted that since the mid 2000s, the majo-
rity of job-seekers has been comprised of women
and this is a tendency that appears to be accentua-
ted in recent years. The rate of unemployment is
also persistently higher in the case of women, an
issue that must be dealt with by the new autho-
ries. The importance of the issue is immediately
Figure 6. Evoluon of new job-seekers, by gender
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Men Women
Source : Tunisian Republic, Ministry of Vocaonal Training and
Employment
Figure 7. Unemployment of higher educaon graduates by gender
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Men Women
Source : Tunisian Republic, Ministry of Vocaonal Training and
Employment
Table 4. Labour market in Tunisia
2011 Variaon 2010
June January
Monthly
Average
(S1)
June 2011
- June 2010
(%)
S1 2011
- S1 2010
(%) June January
Monthly
Average
(S1)
Employment demand (total) 54968 74390 50361 3,10 24,51 53315 47888 40448
of which: rst me job seekers 50508 69716 45320 3,68 27,22 48713 43097 35623
Governorates with highest employment demand
Tunis 4952 5916 3809 19,87 25,42 4131 3249 3037
Sfax 4136 5012 4206 -21,55 42,87 5272 4875 2944
Gafsa 3492 4554 3069 -1,16 77,81 3533 3618 1726
Employment supply (total) 9662 9302 14683 -28,28 -5,31 13472 15268 15507
Employment agency placings 4963 4096 10302 -51,41 -3,63 10213 10172 10690
of which: rst me job seekers 3907 3105 7334 -46,35 1,03 7283 6678 7259
Source: Instut Naonal de la Stasque
-197-
apparent in the case of unemployment among hi-
gher educaon graduates ; women in 2009 faced a
rate close to 35% (32.9% in 2010) more than dou-
ble than the one faced by men.
While some measures that could reduce the
gender gap in unemployment have been ta-
ken (ex. monthly 80-dinar allowance to 40,000
youths from both sexes as part of professional
integration of secondary-education graduates),
their applicability, sufficiency and effectiveness
remain to be seen.Meanwhile, an extended out-
fall on unemployment is probable. For instance,
in early 2011, 33 foreign companies had ceased
operations in Tunisia which resulted in the loss
of 2 400 job positions. If the tourism industry
and export-oriented sectors do not manage to
quickly pick-up then the jobless rate could fur-
ther escalate (estimated rate of 16% in 2011 ac-
cording to EIU).
1.3 Inaon on the rise, yet sll manageable
The average rate of inaon in Tunisia is on the rise
for a second consecuve year. Consumer and produ-
cer price inaon both marked an increase in 2010
(the former from 3.5% to 4.4%, the laer from at
2.2% to 3.1%) which can be explained by higher inter-
naonal prices and especially a rise in oil-prices (brent
increasing from 61.9 US$/b to 79.6 US$/b). Though
higher, consumer price inaon remains close to the
Mediterranean average. Meanwhile, the prices of
basic products and oil might nally not escalate any
further in the coming year, bringing the inaon rate
in Tunisia at an esmated 4% in 2011.
Let it be noted that the rise in nominal wages is
expected to slowdown (from 4% in 2010 to 3.6%
in 2011 and 3.5% the year after).Wages will thus
increase at a slower rate than inflation. Up until
now, limited increases in wages have been made
to stimulate the competitiveness of the domes-
tic labour force, however, minimum wage will
probably be determined by authorities above
inflation to avoid a worsening social condition.
2. Macroeconomic policy responses
Currently, the country is entering a phase of in-
creased pressures on the budget decit because of
the limited revenues as a result of the slowdown in
economic acvity and lower reserves.
Figure 8.Inaon (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : EIU
Figure 9. Decomposing demand, annual change of expenditure to GDP
6,3
4,6
3,1
-0,7
7,0
6,4
2,5
-2,1
4,1
4,6
7,0
5,1
3,1
7,6
10,3
4,0
2,0
8,5
3,5
-1,6
4,8
-3,5
6,1
8,3
6,7
4,8
-1,1
3,7
5,0
9,2
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Exports Imports
Source : EIU
-198-
2.1 Economic acvity to be put to test
The 3.7% rate of growth in 2010 was aained, despite
the 2008 crisis fallout, with the help of investment and
public consumpon, which in terms of expenditure on
GDP grew respecvely by 4% and 5.1%. Meanwhile
exports in 2010 bounced back from their 2009 slump
(4.8% expenditure on GDP growth in 2010).
It was expected that Tunisian growth would be able
to aain its pre-2008 levels aer exports would pick-
up following a more dynamic internaonal demand.
But, as of late 2010, the socio-polical climate has
aected the Tunisian growth engine. The halt in ex-
ports following riots and the transion period that
the country is enduring are expected to bring an es-
mated fall in export expenditures by 3.5% in 2011.
This is unfortunate since private consumpon was
already becoming less relevant with an ancipated -
2.1% fall of its expenditure on GDP for 2011. Thus, the
transional government must do whatever it takes to
boost investment, currently expected to showcase a
2% expenditure growth. The authories should fol-
low strategic development investments to allow for
convergence of condions throughout the territory.
If they succeed in doing so all the while maintaining
stability, then, private investors from both Tunisia and
foreign partners should progressively follow allowing
to fuel growth.
2.2 A scal decit expected to heavily widen
Following the international crisis, the Tunisian
budget was greatly solicited especially to boost
employment, consumption and investment.
Meanwhile, receipts declined in light of poorer
export performance explaining how the fiscal
deficit rose from 0.8% in 2008 to 3% in 2009 to
4.6% in 2010. As of 2011, the transitional go-
vernment has announced an emergency plan for
the Tunisian economy, targeting investment and
employment creation. But, naturally, such plan is
costly and comes at a time where oil-prices are
increasing, reserves are already lower and eco-
nomic growth prospects are dim.
Simply put, unl last year Tunisia sll had some
room for budgetary maneuvering compared to the
rest of the region, now the country appears to be
in a worst scal posion than the Mediterranean
average. On the revenue side of the scal balance
perspecves are not bright, income from privasa-
ons will logically diminish while borrowing from
internaonal markets would imply a much higher
cost due to risk premiums rising for the Mediterra-
nean as a whole.
To sum up, the Tunisian government will likely
have to proceed to development spending and
provide for some social alleviation to the popu-
lation in a very difficult context, one that is ex-
pected to propel the fiscal deficit to an estima-
ted 9.1% in 2011.
2.3 Monetary Policy to protect Banking sector
Unl recently, the Tunisian Central Bank was pur-
suing a gradual transion towards inaon targeng
Figure 10. Banking Sector Indicators : Tunisia VS the world (2008)
6,74
16,0
10,13
11,75
-0,4
0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2
Overheads/
Total Assets
Net Interest
Margin
Concentration Return on
Assets
Return on
Equity
Cost-Income
Ratio
Z-Score
Tunisia MPs Lower Mid. Income High Income
Source : World Bank Financial Structure Database
-199-
to allow, in the longer run, total converbility of the
dinar. Furthermore, eorts to render the exchange
rate system more exible were undertaken. But, in
the current context, the immediate priority of the
Central Bank would probably be to ensure liquidity
remains ample in the banking system, especially in
light of recent downgrading from internaonal inves-
tor agencies. Let it be noted that Moodys Investors
Service downgraded the global local currency (GLC)
and foreign currency (FC) deposit rangs of ve Tuni-
sian banks in early 2011 following concerns about the
probable impact of the social unrest on the economy
and credit.
When looking at indicators of banking performan-
ce, one immediately notes how return on assets
in Tunisia are above the regional average which is
itself above the one observed in both lower middle
income and high income OECD economies. Fur-
thermore, the concentraon rao (share of the 3
largest banks assets to total banking assets) shows
a lower concentraon in Tunisia compared to the
rest of the world (0.59 in Tunisia versus 0.75 in the
region) which is not necessarily a bad thing as no-
ted by Ben Naceur et al (2011) since high concen-
traon can be an indicator of lack of compeve-
ness. Last but not least, the z-score index of bank
stability (rao of return on assets plus capital-to-
asset rao to the standard deviaon of return on
assets) is lower in Tunisia than in the enre region
which means that, as in the case of Egypt, the do-
mesc banking system is less stable.
As already suggested by FEMISE, in spite of the new
banking law the banking system is sll not well pre-
pared to deal with an evolving interest rate. One
must also note that the recent happenings in Libya
shall aect the remiance channel (an important
share of remiances to Tunisia originates from Li-
bya), hence, the monetary policys priority of main-
taining liquidity in banks is all the more important.
As noted by EIU, the key interest rate has cut from
4% to 3.5% and the Central Bank is likely to maintain
a loose monetary policy to boost the economy.
IV. The youth issue, main challenge of the new era
Tunisian youth unemployment has mulple cau-
ses. Low private investment, but also the demo-
graphic boom and the rise in university graduates
are both responsible for sky-rockeng labor mar-
ket parcipaon. Moreover, the youth nd short
term jobs due to the nature of contracts (CDD)
proposed to them.
The unprecedented unemployment rate of young
graduates is probably the biggest challenge to
overcome. However, soluons within the prior
development plan have been scarce and protests,
which led to the departure of the old regime, were
greatly related to this issue.
1. Understanding the problem of youth unem-
ployment
In 2009, unemployment in Tunisia reached consi-
derable heights and especially in younger segments
of the populaon. While the average rate was close
to 13%, in the case of the 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29
demographic the already high unemployment ra-
tes respecvely grew to 33.6%, 29.9% and 25.7%.
While some eorts to alleviate youth unemploy-
ment were undertaken in 2010, unemployment
sll remains massive for the Tunisian youth. The
recent social tensions prove how the issue needs
to be tackled in an ecient manner before the si-
tuaon escalates even more.
Figure 11. Evoluon of unemployment by age, in % of age populaon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-59
60+
Source : Tunisian Republic, Ministry of Vocaonal Training and
Employment
-200-
The truth of the matter is that Tunisia enjoyed
good macroeconomic performances but did not
manage to efficiently reduce youth unemploy-
ment. Thus one would ask the following : What
is the relationship between growth and youth
employment creation? Which sectors could re-
duce it?
A working paper by Stampini and Verdier-Chou-
chane (2011) provides valuable insights into
these issues and helps understand what the dy-
namics of the youth labor market are in Tunisia.
In the 2000-2007 period GDP in Tunisia grew by
an annual average of 4.9% and by 5.7% and 6.3%
in 2006 and 2007. In the same two years, em-
ployment for young Tunisians grew by 2.6% and
0.3%. Thus, the GDP elasticity of employment
calculated by the authors (0.47 in 2006 and 0.05
in 2007) shows that not only is the domestic
economy progressively less youth-driven but
also that the current growth regime contributes
to employment creation for the youth in a vola-
tile manner.
Box. Acve Labor Market programs in Tunisia
Despite its relave ineciency in ghng unemploy-
ment, one must note that Tunisia has put in place a se-
ries of measures to smulate employment. These acve
policies represent approximately 1.5% of total GDP and
can be categorized into :
Introductory courses to the Professional Life, put in place
to help Tunisian graduate job seekers nd their rst job
by providing basic professional skills. Training mainly
occurs in the private sector, assessed aer a 6 month
period with possibility for extension. The targeted youth
perceives 150 TD monthly, social security benets, while
the minimum integraon rate is xed at 50% (average
in 3 years).
Graduates Contract of inseron, targeng graduate job
seekers, who have been unemployed for more than 3
years since graduaon, to acquire those skills that fulll
the requirements of a private rm ready to oer an ope-
ning. Training takes place in the private sector, though it
can also occur in the public sector, targeted youth percei-
ves 150 TD allowance monthly, social security cover for
7 years aer recruitment, while the government grants
the rm an integraon allowance of 1000 TD a year aer
recruitment.
Contract of adaptaon and professional inseron, tar-
geng non-graduate job seekers, unqualied to work
in a given sector or rm, providing professional skills to
individuals with the purpose of providing the necessary
workforce to a rm in-demand. The targeted youth per-
ceives 80 TD monthly, social security benets are cove-
red during the contract by the government, while the the
rm undertakes to recruit the beneciaries and perceive
an integraon allowance of 1000 TD a year aer recruit-
ment.
Contract of reintegrang working life, targeng perma-
nent workers who lost their jobs for economic, technical
or other reasons. This measure is hence related to the
youth, though not solely, its objecve being to provide
new skills idened by a private rm beforehand. The
government grants a monthly allowance of 200 TD, co-
Figure 12. GDP growth and youth employment relaonship
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP growth Youth employment growth
Source : Stampini and Verdier-Chouchane, 2011
Figure 13. Youth employment and demographics
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Youth employment growth Youth population (20-29) growth
Active youth growth
Source : Stampini and Verdier-Chouchane, 2011
-201-
Furthermore, it appears that employment creaon
for the youth during the last two years has been par-
cularly low, esmated at 0,71% and 0.88% in 2009
and 2010 respecvely, while growth was above the
3% mark. In that respect, the economic literature sug-
gests that the economic crisis of late 2008 could be
responsible for worsening condions for the youth.
In a recent arcle, Choudry et al (2010) suggest that
young people are far more aected by unemploy-
ment than the rest, which can produce discoura-
ged workers eects as well as social exclusion from
labour market. It is found that the impact of the
nancial crisis is posive and signicant on youth
unemployment (with a 2-year lag), suggesng that
nancial crises causes addional unemployment for
the youth. Furthermore, a double crisis-induced ef-
fect weighs on the youth. First, a decrease in labour
demand means that new entrants in the job market
that have by denion a high experience gap are
more aected. Second, employment destrucon is
more youth-oriented because of the temporary na-
ture of their job contracts.
2. Deconstrucng the issue of youth employment
A recent study (Ben Halima, Kocoglu and Ben Ha-
lima, 2010) of professional inseron in Tunisia pro-
vides great insights regarding the youth issue.
First, it appears that graduates with a Masters degree
(36.7%) and architects (31%) face the greatest dicul-
es in nding employment. Meanwhile, young indivi-
vers training costs and social security cover while the
host rm must recruit the beneciaries.
Program of backing the promoters of the small busines-
ses, put in place to help small businesses promoters set
their project idea, study and business plan, provide help
in business administraon and in various technical elds.
The government covers the costs of training in seng
up businesses and costs of technical assistance for pro-
ject promoters. Possibility of training in public or private
rms is given to provide the necessary skills to set up a
business.
Solidarity employment contract, targeng all job seekers,
seeking to integrate them within specic acons that are
part of local and regional employment iniaves. Yearly
target contracts are concluded with the Regions accor-
ding to given programs.
Program of voluntary public service, put in place to allow
higher educaon graduates that are also rst-job see-
kers have access to voluntary and part - me community
service jobs. The program is supervised by associaons/
professional organizaons under concluded agreements
with the Ministry of Vocaonal Training and Employ-
ment. The targeted youth perceives 150 TD monthly
while the Naonal Fund for Employment 21-21 can
support a party not exceeding 60% of expenditure for ur-
ban public transport.
Source : Tunisian Republic, Ministry of Vocaonal Trai-
ning and Employment
Figure 14. Employment access in Tunisia, by degree and sector
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Mathematics
Technical
Experimental Sciences
Economics and
Litterature
Superior Technician
Master Graduates
Engineering
Architect
Physician
Arts (License)
Type of
Baccalaurat
Type of Degree
Access to remunerated employment (av.) Public (av.) Private (av.)
Source : Ben Halima et al (2010)
-202-
duals with an engineering degree (61.8%), physicians
(47.6%) are those with greater job-access. They are
followed by those with a license in Fine Arts (43.2%)
and technicians (40.4%) who constute an interme-
diate category.
Furthermore, whether one belongs to the private
or public sector maers. It appears engineers are
more prevalent in the private sector (69%) than in
the public sector (30%) which contradicts some pre-
conceived ideas and could be explained by early pri-
vazaon eorts. Finally, the private sector appears
to aract technicians (75%) and architects (90%). In
contrast, more than half of physicians (53%) and mas-
ter degrees (52%) are in the public sector.
Undeniably, one of the characteriscs of the Tunisian
labor market is that wages in the public sector are
much higher than in the private sector which may act
as a barrier to youth-orien-
taon towards more pro-
ducve employment.
As seen in figure 16, Tu-
nisians working in the
public sector receive an
average monthly wage
of 482TD versus 35TD
for the private sector.
Additionally, men in the
public sector perceive 569 DT about 50% more
than the average wage for men in the private
sector. It should also be noted that while women
are underpaid compared to men in both sectors,
it appears however that women in the private
sector are better paid than men in the public
sector.
Interesngly, Ben Halima et al (2010) nd that ente-
ring the public sector depends on a series of parame-
ters. The decision to be employed in the public sector
is a decreasing funcon of age while gender appears
to play no signicant role. Those with a bachelor de-
gree in experimental science or literature appear to
have easier access to the public sector which is not
the case of those with a bachelor degree in mathe-
macs. Meanwhile, senior technicians and graduates
in Fine Arts have more dicules to be employed in
Figure 15. Average wages by gender, public-private
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Global
Men
Women
Global
Men
Women
Public
Private
Source : Ben Halima et al (2010)
Table 5. Percentage of Unemployed aer beneng from a professional integraon program, by educaon
Post-parcipaon unemployment
rate Index of relave eecveness
Less than secondary 15,68 0,76
Secondary (BAC) 23,64 0,79
Vocaonal Training 18,95 0,46
Masters in Social Sciences 29,22 0,68
Economics, Management and Law 21,18 0,45
Hard Sciences 32,59 0,8
Other disciplines 18,91 0,51
Degree in Engineering 9,09 0,37
Degree in Medicine or Pharmacy 15,53 0,53
PhD 7,13 0,27
Source : Stampini and Verdier-Chouchane (2011)
Note : The index of relave eecveness is equal to the rate of unemployment among beneciaries to the rate of
unemployment among non-beneciaries.
-203-
the public sector as well. Last but not least, rm size
plays a role in determining wages. Working in a small
rm (1 to 9 employees) appears to decrease wages in
both sectors by a signicant margin. In the end, pu-
blic sector wages are mostly higher due to master de-
grees that are ensured to have a higher wage, while
others are either jobless or in the private sector with
a lesser paid employment. For all other degrees, the
private sector appears to pay more though not
signicantly.
3. Gauging the eecveness of labor-market
programs
As for the incidence of labor market programs in
Tunisia, it appears that employees with a CDD (de-
termined duraon contract), SIVP (stages dInia-
on la Vie Professionnelle) and contract within
the CFNE (cadre du fond naonal de lemploi ) res-
pecvely earn 26%, 36% and 49% less compared
to permanent employees (CDI) in the public sector
(Ben Halima et al, 2010). As for employees with no
contract they would earn 56% less than permanent
employees. Similar results are observed in the pri-
vate sector, though at a lesser extent. Moreover,
training stages appear to have a posive eect
on wages in the private sector.
But one would ask the following : are professional
integraon programs really ecient in Tunisia ? The
issue is raised by Stampini and Verdier-Chouchane
(2011) who provide valuable insights. As seen in the
Table, the index of relave eecveness of profes-
sional integraon programs all have a value below 1
which suggest that the rate of unemployment among
beneciaries is lower than the rate of unemployment
among non-beneciaries of such iniave. Nonethe-
less, success is relave across educaon levels.
The best results (value closer to 0) are to be found va-
lues (indicang best performance) for individuals with
vocaonal training (0,46), graduates in economics ,
management and law (0,45) and also in engineering
(0,37) and PhDs (0,27). On the contrary, while exis-
tent, results are less encouraging for those with only
secondary educaon (0,79), less than secondary edu-
caon (0,76) and masters in social sciences (0,68). The
comment to be made is that Tunisian professional in-
tegraon programs could be more ecient for those
with a degree in a eld that is inclined to unemploy-
ment such as social sciences and other disciplines.
Also, a profound reexion must be made at the level
of educaon as to orienng the youth towards disci-
plines that present a greater employment potenal
for the coming decades.
Furthermore, the authors projecons allow for some
opmism : if Tunisia manages to fall back to a growth
rate of 4.5% aer 2011, something that was enrely
feasible prior to 2008, the youth unemployment rate
could drop signicantly. That is, provided economic
reforms for a sustainable growth regime are imple-
mented connuously.
IV. Conclusions
The country has entered a period of profound polical
change that will have considerable implicaons at the
economic level as well. This suggests a series of con-
cluding remarks.
First, a gradual transion towards a more democrac
capitalism should be followed. This implies polical
reforms that provide coverage for domesc needs,
beer instuons, opportunies for all and a reduc-
on of inequalies. The rst step that the authories
ought to do is provide compensaons for those who
have suered the immediate economic repercussions
of the social crisis. Short-run iniaves appear to be on
that track, the interim government adopted economic
Figure 16. PISA 2009 domesc performance VS OECD average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Tunisia OECD
Average
Tunisia OECD
Average
Tunisia OECD
Average
Science Mathematics Reading
Male
mean
Female
mean
Source : OECD (2010), PISA 2009 Results: Execuve Summary
-204-
measures for businesses that suered damages like,
for instance, taking charge of half of the employers
contribuon in compulsory social security in wages for
employees working reduced hours because of slower
acvity. Similarly, the authories will take charge of
two percentage points of lending rates? under res-
tructured loans and credits for reparaons.
The plan for economic and social recovery adopted
in April 2011 should also provide iniaves for em-
ployment creaon and investment. It is expected to
provide tax exempons for investors in regional de-
velopment areas, company exempon of taxes on
wages without any me limit for projects in industry,
handicra and services (tourism as well), and other
incenves to nance investment through markets.
Furthermore, export-oriented companies should be
supported to cope with underlying troubles in ex-
porng their services and products, allowing them
to sell a poron of their goods or services on the
local market.
Addionally, among the most obvious sectors
that are hit is tourism and the sector will need im-
mediate revitalizing. Tourism employs 400,000 Tu-
nisians and contributes by 2.5bn US$ to GDP while
being the rst foreign currency earner. In that res-
pect, the Tourism Ministry launched the I Love
Tunisia campaign to aract foreigners aer recent
events, meanwhile French agency Eco Tour is
expected to also launch a markeng plan for Tuni-
sia tourism. It remains to be seen if such measures
will be successful and cover for the expected loss
of tourists coming from Libya.
Finally and perhaps most importantly, Tunisia must
cope once and for all with the issue of youth. But the
youth issue naturally transits mainly from educaon
and in that respect Tunisia should focus on ameliora-
ng the quality of its educaonal system. The country
presently ranks 56th out of 65 countries on the PISA-
OECD criterion and comes last when compared to the
rank of neighbouring MPs that are part of the sam-
ple. A framework that allows for beer orientaon
of Tunisian students to the sectors in need should be
envisaged, progressively reducing the rao of literary
studies that are synonyms of higher unemployment.
A collaborave eort through Public-Private Par-
tnerships (commonly known as PPPs) should ensure
that the labor markets demands and qualicaons
obtained from the educaon system are in harmony.
The issue should be tackled with comprehensive po-
licies to allow the emergence of a dynamic and com-
peve private sector and the knowledge economy.
Gender issues should be dealt while development
policies should take regional dierences across the
territory into account, thus creang jobs in a manner
that reduces geographical disparies.
Notes:
1. The J-curve approximaon is obtained plong the
polical instability index (EIU) to the index of de-
mocracy 2010 (EIU).
We obtain a quadrac equaon that represents a si-
mlpied relaonship between the two indexes and
takes the form of :
Y= 5.2547 - 8.7419*LnX + 9.3128*lnX^2
where X is the EIU democracy indicator of 2010
and Y the inversed polical instability index (poli-
cal stability)
Sources :
AfricanManager (2011), FDI: new DG of FIPA
shows opmism
AnsaMed : TUNISIA: TOURISM, TOUR OPERATORS
ASK FOR EMERGENCY PLAN , January 28th.
BBC (2011), Tunisia tourism industry suers
amid Libya violence , April 7th.
Ben Halima, Kocoglu and Ben Halima (2010), Inser-
on Professionnelle des Diplms Universitaires en
Tunisie: Comparaison Public-Prive , WP June.
Ben Naceur, Ben-Khediri and Casu (2011), What
Drives the Performance of Selected MENA Banks?
A Meta-Froner Analysis , IMF, WP/11/34, Fe-
bruary.
-205-
Bikyamasr (2011), Tunisia stock market suspen-
ded , March 1st.
Bremmer, Ian (2006), The J Curve: A New Way to
Understand Why Naons Rise and Fall. (Simon &
Schuster, 2006).
BusinessNews (2010), Aprs un octobre noir, la
Bourse de Tunis poursuit sa chute , November
2nd.
BusinessNews (2011), Un nouveau prsident
pour la Bourse de Tuni , April 19th.
CBSNews (2011), Tunisias Tourism Plunged 40
Pct Amid Jan. Unrest , February 4th.
Challenges (2011), -Tunisie : les troubles ont dj
cot 1,6 milliard , 19-1-2011.
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) (2011) Country
Forecast: Tunisia. The Economist Intelligence
Unit: United Kingdom. Various issues.
FEMISE (2010), Rapport du Femise sur le parte-
nariat euromditerranen 2010 : Le partenariat
Euro-Mditerranen la croise des chemins ,
directed by Jean-Louis Reiers, November.
Invesntunisia (2011), The following economic
measures in favor of businesses , March 30th.
InvesnTunisia (2011), Foreign investments du-
ring the rst two months of 2011 , April 5th.
Invesntunisia (2011), Economic and Social Re-
covery Plan Adopted , April 8th.
Moodys (2011), Moodys takes acon on ve Tu-
nisian banks rangs , January 21st.
NTDTV (2011), Tunisias Stock Market Re-Opens
for Business , February 2nd.
REUTERS (2011) , Tunisia bets revoluon will
boost tourism , February 4th.
Stampini and Verdier-Chouchane (2011), Labor
Market Dynamics in Tunisia: The Issue of Youth
Unemployment , African Development Bank,
Working Paper No 123, February.
The Big Issue (2011), Arab Spring Slips Into Tu-
nisian Fall, August 22nd)
TheHindu (2011), Tunisias polical crisis , Ja-
nuary 13th.
WMC (2011), Semaine faste pour les valeurs
bancaires la Bourse de Tunis , April 25th.
-206-
-207- -207-
TURKEY : Democrac regime with some vulnerabilies
Compared to most of its southern Mediterranean
neighbors, Turkey is ahead in terms of democracy.
Naturally, as turmoil spread in the Arab world, it
has not been much aected. Not only that, but
it had been among the rst countries to support
the popular uprising in Egypt and Tunisia and is
currently seen by many as a democrac model for
other Islamic countries.
Yet, while Turkey currently stands to gain from
past democrazaon and economic reform eorts,
some observers (Rodrik, 2010) have pointed that
there is a risk that it regresses back to less poli-
cal openness. This is because of some recent
concerns about the ruling polical party trying to
weaken the militarys hold on the state. And more
worryingly, it led a crackdown on journalists in
2010 to silence voices of opposion, parcularly
those from the old secular guard. Nevertheless, a
posive development is the outcome of the June
2011 parliamentary elecons. The ruling party was
not able to secure the minimum number of seats
in parliament required to change the constuon
which means that it will have to seek the support
the opposion.
Turkeys economy, which performance was not
very impressive unl the early-2000s, was able to
weather the strong ouall of the 2008 crisis wi-
thout facing another full-edged nancial crisis
(Macovei, 2009). It is true that the impact of the
crisis was more severe than other emerging econo-
mies but it was short-lived and the Turkish econo-
my showed strong signs of recovery in 2010 (IMF,
2010a). This was largely due to a structural trans-
formaon of the economy and improved economic
management (a successful disinaon program,
scal discipline and nancial sector supervision) in
the wake of a home-grown nancial crisis in 2001.
These eorts strengthened Turkeys fundamen-
tals and increased its resilience to external shocks
which allowed migang the impact of the 2008
nancial crisis.
Aer an impressive economic recovery in 2010, fo-
recasts for 2011 are as follows:
Growth which had surged to 9% in 2010,
is expected to moderate to 5.7% in 2011, reecng
a connued revival in external demand but a less
accommodang monetary policy,
In tandem with the growth recovery,
unemployment is expected to decline slightly from
the current rate of 11% but would require high
long-term growth rates to decline below the per-
sistent rate of 10%,
The current account, dormant during the
crisis, is expected to soar to 9.8% of GDP, reecng
Turkeys growing external nancing needs,
FDI inows are expected to remain below
pre-crisis levels (to 1.7% of GDP).
Inaon is expected to exceed the inial
central bank target of 5.5%, as a result of stronger
domesc demand, rising commodity prices and a
weaker currency,
Aer a beer than expected performance
in 2010, the scal decit is forecasted to connue
to decline from 3.6 in 2010 to 1.5% of GDP in 2011,
following a restructuring of income tax and social
security premium arrears,
Finally, job creaon is a long-standing chal-
lenge for Turkey which is exacerbated for the youth
who have been the most vulnerable to employment
losses in the aermath of the 2008 crisis. They also
have the highest unemployment rate (23%) parcu-
larly among the graduates. When employed, they
have low earnings from informal jobs. So far, past
policies have not suciently remedied labor market
regulaons which are considered to be too restricve
and discourage job creaon.
I. The limitaons of the polical economy model
Contrary to most neighboring MPs which currently
face heightened polical uncertainty, Turkey is
ahead in its democrazaon eorts. It has been
governed by a secular democrac state since 1923,
has a mulparty democrac regime since 1945,
free elecons since the 1950s. In recent years,
more reforms were introduced. Constuonal
-208- -208-
changes introduced in 2007 allowed for the direct
elecon of the president (to be held for the rst
me in 2014) and also reduced the presidenal
term to ve years, for a maximum of two terms.
The current ruling party won the general parlia-
mentary elecons held in June 2011, securing a
third consecuve term in government. Yet, the par-
ty was not able to secure the minimum number of
seats in parliament (acquiring 326 out of 550 seats)
required to change the current 1982 military-inspi-
red constuon which means that it will have to
seek the support the opposion to do so. Amend-
ments need to be supported by at least two-thirds
of the assembly (367 MPs). Alternavely, a three-
hs majority (over 330 MPs) is enough to pass
amendments in parliament and then put them to a
referendum. The need to build a broader consen-
sus will make introducing constuonal reforms
more dicult.
1. A country past the transion but with some risks
Turkeys posion on the J-curve conrms that it is
ahead of many MPs (like Egypt, Tunisia and Mo-
rocco). It has crossed the turning point, or the
inevitable transion period of instability (gure 1).
Past achievements seem to keep Turkey relavely
safe from the current polical turmoil and have also
allowed Turkey to play a prominent role in suppor-
ng the demands of the Arab Street for polical
change. Turkey has even invited Arab leaders, such
as the Syrian President, to come and learn from
their democrac experience. Furthermore, its se-
cular democrac model; reecve of economic dy-
namism, foreign policy creavity as well as Islamic
moderaon; could serve as an example for other
Euromed countries.
Yet, it is important to note that in terms of demo-
cracy, Turkey is relavely far from other Mediter-
ranean neighbors (Israel) and is even further from
fully-democrac countries like Norway. Clearly, a
deepening of its democrazaon process would
enable it to catch-up with them. Alternavely, if it
does not, there is a risk it will lag behind other Me-
diterranean countries who get engaged in genuine
democrazaon. Finally, some observers (Rodrik,
2010) have pointed that there is a risk that Turkey
regresses back to less polical openness. While
the ruling party has been making promises for in-
creased polical freedom and democrazaon, a
new constuon as well as judicial eciency, there
has been recent concerns about aempts to wea-
ken the opposion either from the military (throu-
gh a 2010 constuonal reform package increasing
civilian oversight of the military) or the media. In
fact, the government led a crackdown on journa-
lists in 2010 to silence voices of opposion, par-
cularly those from the old secular guard.
2. Governance in polical measures sll need to
be improved
Turkeys record in governance is beer than most
Mediterranean economies but more importantly,
gure 2 shows that there was an improvement
between 2000 and 2009. The
most notable improvement can
be seen in government eec-
veness, control of corrupon
and rule of law. In parcular,
Turkey made signicant pro-
gress in the ght against cor-
rupon in the context of the
implementaon of the OECD
an-bribery convenon since
2003. Accordingly, several legis-
lave and regulatory provisions
Figure 1. Turkey on the world J-Curve (2010)
Turkey
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Democracy
Stability
Source : FEMISE calculaons based on EIU Polical Instability Indicator, Index
of Democracy.
-209-
have been adopted and there was an increase in
law enforcement (OECD, 2010). Currently, Turkey
has a score of 4.4 in Transparency Internaonals
Corrupon Percepons Index for 2010 and ranks
56th out of 178 countries but ranks rst among
Eastern and Central European countries (Transpa-
rency Internaonal, 2010). Nevertheless, scores
for polical stability and voice and accountability
measures are negave. This poor performance re-
ects the recent above-menoned concerns.
3. Human development and poverty
Contrary to the Egypan case, Turkeys improved
macroeconomic performance was accompanied by
beer human development, poverty reducon and
increasing equality.
Between 2000 and 2010, Turkeys human develop-
ment index rose by 1.3% annually, which gives the
country a rank of 83 out of 169 countries in 2010.
This places Turkey very close the regional average,
ranking very closely with other MPs like Tunisia and
Jordan but lagging behind more developed MPs
like Israel (UNDP, 2010).
Moreover, Aran et al. (2010) showed that there
was a dramac decline in poverty from 28% in
2003 to 18% in 2006. This occurred following im-
pressive poverty reducon in urban areas where
the poverty headcount declined by almost 14 per-
centage points to 9.4%. Meanwhile, poverty in
rural areas remains high, esmated around 33%.
Furthermore, inequality measures also improved
considerably in urban areas.
Ferreira, Gignoux and Aran
(2010) nd that inequality
of opportunies accounts
for at least 26% (31%) of to-
tal inequality in predicted
consumpon (the wealth
index), for ever-married wo-
men aged 30-49 in Turkey.
In contrast with the Egypan
case, the paern of econo-
mic growth was pro-poor in
Turkey between 2003 and 2006. In fact, Aran et
al. (2010) show that both growth and distribuon
greatly contributed to urban poverty reducon,
accounng respecvely for 7 and 3.8 percentage
points decrease. The occurrence of fast growth
in sectors like commerce/tourism, manufacturing
and construcon with a large distribuon of the
poor in 2003 (33%) has helped reduced the share
of the employed poor in 2006 (25%).
II. External nances have recovered but are vulnera-
ble to a sudden stop in short-term capital inows
Current external balances have recovered in 2010. The
2011 outlook based on IMF projecons is as follows:
Merchandise exports (in volume) is expected
to maintain posive growth rates close to 7%,
Merchandise imports growth is forecasted to
slowdown to 9%,
The current account, dormant during the cri-
sis, is expected to soar to 8% of GDP, reecng
Turkeys growing external nancing needs,
Finally, FDI inows are expected to increase to 1.7%
of GDP but should remain below pre-crisis levels.
1. A recovery in trade growth highlights Turkeys
dependence on imported energy
Export volumes recovered from negave growth in
2009 (-22%) to a posive pace of 6.3% in 2010 and
rose by 18% y-o-y in the rst half of 2011. Manufactu-
ring accounts for the largest share in exports (above
90%), parcularly exports of texles (gure 3). They
Figure 2. Turkeys Governance Indicators
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
Voice and
Accountability
Political
Stability
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law Control of
Corruption
2000 2009
Source : Worldwide Governance Indicators 2010, World Bank.
Note : Values vary from -2.5 (bad governance) to 2.5 (good governance)
-210-
recovered in 2010, growing by 10.6% aer contracng
by 24% in 2009. Texles exports posted an impressive
growth of 12.6% in 2010 aer negave growth last
year. Most manufacturing exports posted posive
growth in Q1-2011 (that is sll low below pre-crisis
levels) with the excepon of basic metals. Oil exports
represent less than 10 % of Turkish exports, thus li-
ming the gains Turkey can make from the current
price boom.
It is also important to highlight that the assem-
bly-type feature of Turkeys exports, especially in
transport vehicles, implies that these industries
have a low domesc content (or alternavely a
rising import content) desned to sasfy domes-
c and external demand. These industries may be
footloose, as experience in Central and Eastern
Europe shows, and thus willing to uproot to more
compeve countries.
The strength of domesc demand and higher oil pri-
ces led to soaring imports (up by 21% in 2010 and
by 45% in the rst half of 2011), reecng a strong
dependence on imported energy. In fact, oil (both
crude and rened) constute about more than a
third of total imports (gure 4). Most other import
groups posted double digit growth; the highest was
for basic metals manufactures up by 40%.
Consequently, the trade decit rose, from 4% of
GDP in 2009 to 6% in 2010. In the rst half of 2011,
it surged to 6.3 from 2.9% of GDP. Further interna-
onal price increases are likely to accentuate this
trend. In tandem with the rising trade decit, the
current account decit, dormant during the 2008
crisis when external nancing was scarce, edged
up rapidly. In 2010, it more than doubled to
6.6% of GDP from 2.3% in 2009 and to 6% of
GDP in the rst half of 2011 up from 2.8%
last year (gure 5).
As EU demand for Turkish export is expec-
ted to remain subdued, the pace of (volume)
export growth will be maintained at the same
level close to 7%. To boost export growth, Tur-
key could increase export market penetraon
in other markets. Meanwhile, high growth and rising
commodity prices are likely to maintain import growth
but at lower levels (9%) and exert pressure on Tur-
keys current account decit which is forecast to rise
to close to 9% of GDP in 2011. The current account is
expected to ease only moderately starng 2012 but
the decit will sll be worryingly large. The current
account now nanced by short-term capital inows
remains vulnerable to a sudden stop in these inows,
if global nancial condions deteriorate again. This
could cause severe problems, including an abrupt
fall in the value of the lira leading, as it has done in
the past, to higher inaon and a sharp ghtening
Figure 5. External nances (% of GDP)
-0,04
-0,03
-0,02
-0,01
0
0,01
0,02
Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11
Trade balance Services and income balance
Current Transfers Balance Current account balance
Source : Authors calculaons based on data from Central Bank of
the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
Figure 3. Exports by sector grouping, 2007-2011 (%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-April 2011
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Mining and quarrying
Machinery and equipment Textile Products & Apparel
Basic Metal Industry Other Manufacturing
Other Petroleum and chemical products
Sources : Authors calculaons based on data from Turkish Stascal Instute.
Figure 4. Imports by sector grouping, 2007-2011 (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( to
April)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Mining and quarrying
Machinery and equipment nec Petroleum and chemical products
Manufacture of basic metals Other Manufacturing
Other
Source : Authors calculaons based on data from Turkish
Stascal Instute.
-211-
of monetary policy followed by a rapid slowdown in
economic acvity, with possible private-sector debt
servicing dicules.
2. Financial sector: capital inows have resumed
but their quality has deteriorated
Capital inows, which have been the main nancing
item of the current account, have resumed aer some
interrupon in the aermath of the crisis in 2008.
Yet, their composion has shied from FDI and lon-
ger-term debt towards porolio and short-term ows
(covering 40% of the current account decit), mostly
intermediated by the banking sector (gure 7).
Porolio investments soared to 3% of GDP in 2010
from almost nothing in 2009; and from 1.3% of GDP
in the rst quarter of 2011 from 0.4% of GDP last
year. This increase come at the back of the issuance
of a yen-dominated internaonal bond (in the equi-
valent of US$ 2.3 billion), of which foreign investors
purchased US$2.1billion in the domesc government
bond market, and banks and companies increased
their use of foreign loans by about US$ 5.5 billion. The
predominance of short-term capital inows increases
exposure to capital ow reversal. According to IMF
(2010b), push and pull factors drive these short-term
capital inows and will connue to do so in the futu-
re. Pull factors include high interest rate dierenals,
favorable growth prospects and healthy public nan-
ces while push factors include inadequate compe-
veness and a rising current account.
Beneng from the return of short-term inows,
the Istanbul stock exchange has been on rising trend
since mid-2009 and closed 2010 with a 25% growth,
thus outpacing many comparable emerging markets.
Since the beginning of 2011, the stock market had a
good performance on the back of a generally posive
senment regarding the global economy and sas-
factory company results. However, renewed concern
about the sustainability of the global economic reco-
very and debt problems in some EU member states
as well as expectaons that further measures would
be taken to curb Turkeys current-account decit have
increased market nervousness recently. According to
IMF (2010a), the sensivity of Turkish nancial mar-
kets to global risk appete measured by Turkish so-
vereign CDS spreads - appears to have recently decli-
ned. In other words, domesc markets have become
less responsive to global risk senment, reecng
the strength of the recovery, the resilience during the
2008 crisis, and strong fundamentals.
Meanwhile, FDI inows remain well below pre-crisis
levels (1.4% of GDP in 2010 compared to above 3% in
2007 and 2008, and in the rst quarter of 2011, they
increased to 0.4 from 0.2% of GDP) and below levels
in main competors in central and eastern Europe.
FDI are expected to increase only slightly to 1.6% of
GDP in 2011. Reforms to the business environment
can help aract more FDI to more sustainably nance
the widening current account.
III. Main macroeconomic balances
While the southern Mediterranean region is wi-
tnessing unprecedented polical turmoil with im-
plicaons on economic acvity, the Turkish eco-
nomy is on a fast-track recovery from the eects of
the 2008 global nancial crisis. This recovery is pro-
jected to connue, where robust private demand
and buoyant credit growth are liing economic
acvity amid sll-accommodave macroeconomic
policies.
1. The real sector shows a strong recovery in 2010,
with some cooling down in 2011
The polical crisis in the region has not had adverse
eects on the Turkish economy. It is true that the
Figure 6. Composion of capital ows (US$ million)
-10 000
-5 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1-2011
FDI Portfolio
Source : CBRT.
-212-
impact of the crisis was more severe
than other emerging economies
because of Turkeys high degree of
trade and nancial integraon with
the world economy (IMF, 2010a). Yet,
the domesc recession was short-li-
ved with a beer-than-expected GDP
growth of 8.9% in 2010, following a
sharp contracon of 4.8% in 2009 (-
gure 8). The recovery connued in the
rst and second quarters of 2011 with GDP growing
at 11% and 8.8% respecvely. The recent growth sur-
ge reects some base eects but also strong domes-
c demand growth driven by low real interest rates,
strong capital inows and a rapid acceleraon in bank
credit growth. The growth boost was largely driven
by the private sector, with consumer spending up by
6.6% in 2010 (compared to a contracon of 2.3% last
year) and a recovery of private investment growth
(to 30%), which is above pre-crisis performance. As
a share to GDP, private investment also increased to
21.5% in 2010 up from 19.9% in 2008 and lower le-
vels in 2009.
On the supply side, the industry, construcon, trade
and transportaon sectors all grew at double digit ra-
tes (gure 9). In the rst quarter, most major sectors
connued to post strong growth rates (trade, up by
17%, construcon up by 14.8% and manufacturing up
by 12.3%). The pace of growth in economic acvity
has been slower in the second quarter of 2011, with
falling industrial producon growth since February
2011. TFP had taken a hard hit in 2009, falling by 5.8%
but has recovered in 2010 to 3.3% (gure 10).
Recent analysis showed that past reform eorts
- including a highly capitalized and beer-regula-
ted banking sector and well-managed monetary,
scal, and public debt policies - have rendered
the economy more resilient and helped it weather
the strong ouall of the 2008 crisis without facing
another full-edged nancial crisis (Macovei, 2009
and IMF, 2010a). Moreover, Alp and Elekdag (2011)
provide evidence that without such key reforms -
in parcular the adopon of an inaon targeng
framework underpinned by a exible exchange
rate regime - the global nancial crisis would have
been associated with a much deeper economic
contracon. Using model-based counterfactual si-
mulaons, they esmate that without the counter-
cyclical and discreonary interest rates cuts imple-
mented by the CBRT, growth in 2009 would have
further decreased to -6.2 %. Moreover, if a xed
exchange rate regime would have been in place,
growth in 2009 would have been -8 %.
Taking into account the speed of recovery in Eu-
rope, polical certainty (aer the June elecons),
robust domesc demand, but also a less accom-
modang monetary policy, GDP growth is expec-
ted to moderate to 5.7% in 2011 and to lower
rates in 2012 (EIU, 2011b). Growing external -
nancing and a dependence on short-term inows
to nance them are pressing concerns that could
aect this outlook.
In the longer-term, growth should
stabilize around its potenal rates
4.5-5.5% on the back of a well-diver-
sied economy (gure 11), the return
of long-term capital inows, sound
balance sheets, the external anchor
of EU accession, and the past track
Figure 7. Contribuon to GDP growth (%)
-250%
-150%
-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Contribution to growth
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
GDP growth
Domestic demand External demand GDP growth
Source : Authors calculaon based on EIU data..
Figure 8. Sectoral growth rates (%)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Manufacturing Construction Trade Transportation, storage and communciations
Source : Authors calculaon based on CBRT data..
-213-
record of solid economic management and structu-
ral reform. These posive factors are downplayed
by weak external compeveness and labor market
ineciencies. Reforms to enhance ensergy eciency
and invest in alternave energy sources are necessary
to reduce Turkeys imported energy dependence and
thus its exposure to oil price volality.
2. The strengthening economy had a posive ef-
fect on unemployment
In tandem with the economic recovery, employment
went up by 6.2% in 2010 and 7.2% in February 2011,
up from 0.4% in 2009 and is forecasted to decline
slightly in the short-term. This improvement reects
several eorts adopted the previous year to boost
employment including a 5 percentage point cut in
employers social security premiums, increased fun-
ding for acve labor market policies, as well as more
general smulus measures such as expanding short-
me unemployment benets and temporary tax cuts
on purchases of cars and other durables. As a result,
unemployment declined to 12% in 2010 from 14.1%
a year ago and is expected to decline further to 11%
in 2011. Gender dierences are not striking (13% for
females and 11.4% for males) (gure
12). Youth unemployment dropped to
21.7% in 2010 from 25% in 2009.
Regional disparies are present with ur-
ban unemployment (14%) being almost
double rural unemployment (7%). The
laer has recovered quicker than urban
unemployment which sll remains abo-
ve pre-crisis levels (gure 13).
3. Inaon has remained under control but is ex-
pected to increase in the short-term
Having adopted a downward trend since between
September 2010 (9%) to March 2011 (a low of 4%),
inaon soared to 7.2% in May but declined to an
average of 6.5% in the following months. Food pri-
ces (accounng for over one quarter of the CPI bas-
ket) which declined between October 2010 (18%)
and April 2011 (2.7%) also surged in May 2011 (to
13%) but also subsided recently (gure 14). Ina-
onary pressures were owed to a combinaon of
factors including base eects, stronger domesc
demand, rising commodity prices and a weaker
currency. These factors are likely to interact and
connue to push inaon up signicantly in the co-
ming months. The Central Bank of the Republic of
Turkey (CBRT) is aware of these temporary pres-
sures and taking into account a provincial increase
in customs duty (on many texle products) imple-
mented in July, it has revised upwards its 2011 mid-
point forecast to 6.9% from 5.5% (though the new
forecast is sll within the band of uncertainty of 2
%age points). In line with the CBRTs medium-term
Figure 9. Composion of value added (% of GDP))
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Manufacturing Construction
Trade Transportation, storage and communciations
Agriculture
Source : Authors calculaon based on CBRT data..
Figure 10. Unemployment by Gender (%), 2008-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2009 2010
male Female Overall
Source : Turkish Stascal Instute.
Figure 11. Unemployment by Region (%), 2008-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2009 2010
Urban Rural National
Source : Turkish Stascal Instute.
-214-
objecve of price stability, and also as economic
acvity moderates and short-term interest rates
rise, inaonary pressures should subside. The ul-
mate long-term target is to bring inaon rate to
levels complying with the Maastricht convergence
criteria.
IV. Macroeconomic response
1. Fiscal policy performed beer than expected
The governments budget performed beer than
expected in 2010, with the decit narrowing to
3.6% of GDP from 5.5% in 2009 (and an inial 2010
forecast of 4.7%). This was in part due to the ro-
bust recovery in domesc demand, which suppor-
ted an increase of revenues to 23 from 22.6% of
GDP. More importantly, public expenditure was
brought down signicantly to 26.6 from 28% of
GDP. In the rst half 2011, strong demand led to a
small budget surplus, beneng from a restructu-
ring of income tax and social security premium ar-
rears, which led to higher tax revenues and falling
interest expenditures. The decit is projected to
decline to further decline to 1.5% of GDP in 2011,
below the scal target of 2.8%. This decline comes
at the back of expected increased tax revenues fol-
lowing the announcement of a new tax amnesty
that is expected to generate addional revenue of
around 1% of GDP.
The public debt stock fell signicantly in the second
half of 2010, thereby fully migang early year in-
creases, and amounted to about 43% of GDP by
the end of 2010 from 46% of GDP in 2009. The pu-
blic debt to GDP rao is ancipated to fall gradually
from 42.3% of GDP in 2010 to 36.8% by 2013.
In order to capitalize on Turkeys past accomplish-
ments in scal consolidaon, and also to limit go-
vernment discreon in adopng ad-hoc measures
to achieve scal targets, the EU recommends that
a strong scal anchor and an acceleraon of key
structural reforms would be highly benecial (EC,
2011a). In the short term, the main challenge will
be to connue to meet the scal targets set out in
the Medium Term Program, to be announced soon.
This will not only bring down the public debt, but
will also signal policy credibility to investors, impor-
tant for longer run stability. The government has
put forward dra legislaon of a scal rule, which
would help in this regard (IMF, 2010a).
2. Monetary policy in dilemma: curbing inaon
versus management of capital inows?
Concerns about Turkeys soaring current account
decit in 2010 have complicated the conduct of
monetary policy for the CRBT. In response to this
trend, the CBRT has adopted a policy mix since
October 2010 to prevent the economy from ove-
rheang as well as maintain nancial stability. The
CBRT has combined sharp increases in banks re-
quired reserve raos with moderate reducons in
short-term interest rates.
On the one hand, the CBRT raised commercial
bank reserve requirement raos (which have
been reduced in end-2008 to alleviate the impact
of global nancial crisis on the domesc econo-
my). For Turkish lira liabilies, the reserve raos
were raised by 1 percentage point to 6% between
October and November 2010. In December 2010,
new reserve raos were announced, varying ac-
cording to maturity. They were revised again
in January and March 2011, nearly doubling for
short maturies. Currently, the raos range from
5% for deposits of one year or more to 16% for
demand deposits. For foreign exchange liabili-
es, requirements were reduced by 2 percentage
Figure 12. Inaon measures, 2004-2-11
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,2
37987 38108 38231 38353 38473 38596 38718 38838 38961 39083 39203 39326 39448 39569 39692 39814 39934 40057 40179 40299 40422 40544 40664
Headline inflation Food inflation
Source : Authors calculaon based on CBRT data..
-215-
points to 11%. The hikes on short-term liabilies
should achieve the following: (i) curb the growth
of bank credit, which has soared to 45% in De-
cember 2010 from single digits in 2009 (gure 16)
and connues to be high above the authories
target of 25%, boosted by a surge in capital in-
ows and low interest rates, (ii) encourage banks
to increase the average maturity of their funding.
About 90% of bank deposits have a maturity of
less than three months, (iii) Contribute to ghter
monetary without resorng to sharp rises in the
interest rates.
On the other hand, the CBRT adopted a more
loosened policy stance despite above-target ina-
on expectaons and domesc demand growth.
In fact, the one-week repo (repurchase) lending
rate was cut by a total of 1.25 basis points in De-
cember 2010 January and August 2011 to 5.75%.
These cuts are an aempt to deter short-term
capital inows, which are largely aracted by the
yield dierenal between domesc and interna-
onal rates, and which unl late 2010 were dri-
ving up the value of the lira, increasing import
penetraon and thereby contribung to the rise
of the current-account decit. However, the CBRT
sharply increased its overnight borrowing rate to
5% from 1.5% in an aempt to protect the local
currency.
The CBRT expects that higher reserve requirements
would oset the eect of interest rate reducons on
credit growth, although the laer showed no sign
of slowing. And while the CBRT believes the need
for further reserve requirement increases has di-
minished as the increases already made will have a
delayed eect, it might be compelled to start raising
interest rates if inaon does not decelerate and also
to migate the widening of the current account, the
laer also requiring ghter monetary policy. Also, as
credit growth has remained high, the banking regu-
laon and supervision authority adopted various
macro-prudenal measures last June 2011 including
increasing provisions and changing the risk-weighng
aached to short-term loans, to restrict consumer
loans other than vehicle and housing loans, parcu-
larly those with maturity of over one year, as a means
to slow down lending growth.
The Turkish lira started weakening since early
2011 (down by 10%), reversing the appreciation
gains made in 2010, as a result of strong short-
term capital inflows since April 2010 (up by 9% y-
o-y). The depreciation was largely in response to
the CBRT policy of reducing interest rates (on fo-
reign currency) and generally seeking to discou-
rage short-term capital inflows. Concern about
the depreciation has led the CBRT to suspend
the daily foreign-exchange buying auctions and
reduced reserve requirements for foreign-ex-
change deposits. Despite strong global liquidity,
which has so far ensured strong capital inflows
into lira-denominated assets, there is some con-
cern that Turkeys rapidly deteriorating external
imbalances will put downward pressure on the
lira exchange rate. Pressures are likely to be exa-
cerbated if global risk aversion increases sharply,
making it difficult for Turkey to meet its large ex-
ternal financing needs.
Ocial foreign exchange reserves rose to rou-
ghly US$ 86 billion (6.6 months of merchandise
imports) in 2010 up from US$ 75 billion in 2009
(5.8 months of merchandise imports). Accumu-
laon of reserves connued throughout 2011 in-
creasing to US$ 94 billion in June 2011 following
connued strong capital inows a strengthening
euro (against the dollar), which boosts the dollar
value of euro-denominated reserves. The gross
external debt stock amounted to 40% of GDP by
end 2010, almost unchanged from a year earlier.
Figure 13. Domesc liquidity, % change, 2005-2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
jan-
09
juin-
09
nov-
09
avr-
10
sep-
10
fv-
11
juil-
11
dc-
11
mai-
12
oct-
12
ma
rs-13
ao-
13
jan-
14
juin-
14
nov-
14
avr-
15
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
M2 growth domestic credit growth-RHS
Source : Authors calculaon based on CBRT data..
-216-
About two thirds is held by the private sector. Re-
ecng in part lower credit demand, corporate
external indebtedness declined.
3. The banking sector
In 2010, Turkeys banking sector performance im-
proved. In tandem with the recovery, loan and asset
growth grew solidly, by respecvely 30% and 20%.
The capital adequacy rao stood at 19% at end
2010, versus 20.5% a year earlier. The non-perfor-
ming loans rao fell gradually from 5.3% end-2009
to 3.7% by December and 3.4% by early March
2011. Banking sector prots increased by 8.5% but
declined by 13.5% y-o-y in Q1-2011 following the
hikes in reserve requirements. However, the sector
should connue to be protable in 2011, as it may
take advantage of the robust economic expansion
in Turkeys economy and of increasing private sec-
tor leverage (EC, 2011b).
V. The Challenge of Youth Unemployment
Like Egypt, Turkey is undergoing a rapid demogra-
phic transion, which has generated a youth bulge
(between the ages of 15-29) accounng for around a
third of the Turkish populaon and the labor force in
2010. This implies a rapid increase in the working age
populaon which is projected to grow ll 2040, mea-
ning that the challenge of job creaon will remain
pernent. The large working age populaon is an op-
portunity to generate growth, but if these people are
not employed, the future bulge in the rered popu-
laon will have to be supported from lower levels of
per capita income (World Bank, 2006).
Turkeys labor market is characterized by
low employment rates, reecng relavely
high unemployment and declining labor
force parcipaon rates. These problems
are exacerbated for the youth who face the
following employment challenges: (i) the
alarmingly slow pace of employment gene-
raon, (ii) they have the highest unemploy-
ment rate, (iii) unemployment is parcularly
high for higher educaon graduates, (iv) labor market
regulaons that are not job-creang friendly.

1. Youth employment generaon has been alar-
mingly low
As menoned earlier, Turkeys impressive eco-
nomic growth between 2002 and 2007 failed to
translate in a strong pace of employment gene-
raon. The 2008 crisis only worsened this trend
which the recovery in 2010 contributed to partly
reverse. In fact, overall employment cumulavely
increased by only 5.8% between 2002 and 2010
with employment losses occurring unl 2005. In
general, Turkey suers from jobs decit that pre-
sents a parcular challenge on the road toward EU
accession. The European Council meeng in Lisbon
in 2000 adopted an employment rate target of 70%
to be met by 2010 (World Bank, 2006). Currently,
the employment rate is 43%, one of the lowest in
world. According to World Bank (2006), most coun-
tries have employment rates above 50%.
The situaon for the youth is more worrying since
their employment declined by almost 10% during
2002-2007 the same period and when it experien-
ced posive growth, this rate was consistently be-
low the naonal average, except for 2005 when it
witnessed the same expansion. In the aermath
the 2008 crisis, the youth was the most vulnera-
ble group to employment losses as it was the only
group where employment sharply declined by
4% in 2009. The recovery of youth employment
is also occurring at the lowest pace among other
age groups.

Figure 14. Employment growth, 2002-2010
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Youth National
Source : Authors calculaon
-217-
2. Youth have the highest unemployment
Youth unemployment which declined from 27.6% in
the aermath of the crisis in 2009 to 22.6% in 2010
remains the highest - almost double the naonal ave-
rage - , compared to other age groups (gure 18). The
age group of 20-24 years, the age of compleon of
university degrees and, therefore, rst labor market
entry, suers from the highest unemployment rate
of 28%. While labor parcipaon rate suer from a
wide gender gap, (71% for men and 27.6% for wo-
men), gender dierences are not striking for young
males and females.
Figure 16 also shows unemployment of youth (15-
24 years) has been more than double total unem-
ployment. While the laer has persisted at around
10%, youth unemployment has also been stuck but
at a signicantly higher level, 25% with a peak to
34% in 2009. Youth unemployment appears to be
an urban phenomenon, parcularly for the youn-
gest group. Urban unemployment is around 23% al-
most double the rural unemployment rate (12.4%).
Yet, urban youth unemployment has been declining
in recent years; the opposite trend can be seen in
rural unemployment.
3. Youth unemployment and education
Educated young people (15-24 years) have diculty
nding jobs. In fact, in 2010, job seekers with an inter-
mediate degree and above accounted for above 89%
of unemployed, of which graduates with a university
degree and above represent around 56%. Unemploy-
ment rates are generally high for all educaon cate-
gories, being the lowest (10%) for those with a junior
high school degree. Unemployment rates for those
with a lower educaon status are above 15% and
they are highest for university graduates (33%) and
those with a high school degree (27%) (gure 17). On
a more posive tone, unemployment for all levels of
educaon has been declining over me, except for
the crisis-induced spike in 2009 (gure 18).
Both demand and supply factors could be responsi-
ble for the unemployment of the educated. The eco-
nomy may not be generang jobs that can absorb
educated young, but also the educated young may
not be well-suited to the job market. In fact, World
Bank (2007) highlights that the quality of educaon
and the skills learnt by Turkish students remain below
those in comparator countries. Also, few rms pro-
vide training to their workers.
Figure 15. Youth Unemployment (15-24 years), 2002-2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65+
Male Female Total
Source : Authors calculaon
Figure 16. Youth Unemployment (15-24 years), 2002-2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Youth Total
Source : Authors calculaon
Figure 17. Youth unemployment (15-24) by education level, 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Illiterate
Reads and
writes
Primary
Junior high
school or
vocational
High school
Vocational
school at
high school
Universities
and other
higher
Primary
education
Source : Authors calculaon
Figure 18. Youth unemployment (15-24) by education level, 00-10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Source : Authors calculaon
-218-
4. Youth, informality and labor market instuons
Informality is widespread among young individuals
where it was esmated close to 80% for the 15-19
age cohorts and at 50% for the 20-25 age groups
(World Bank, 2010). Young workers are on average
less producve and their level of producvity may
be less certain to their employers, since they have
a shorter track record and thus may not jusfy
the costs of a formal job oer. Young workers may
also place lower value on social security and other
benets of formality, and be more willing to ac-
cept oers of unregistered work. A previous study,
World Bank (2006) had already shown that young
workers (1524 years) had the worst earnings re-
cord, experiencing a real decline of 10 % between
1989 and 2002. This group beneted the least from
the wage gains between 1989 and 2004 (only 12.3
growth) and was hurt the most from the wage de-
clines between 1994 and 2002 (19 % loss). As a re-
sult, mean youth earnings in 2002 were just half
(50 %) of the average for all workers, down from
63 % in 1989.
The widespread of youth informality is just a re-
econ of overall informality in the Turkish eco-
nomy, esmated at 33% of GDP, a size that is not
considered excessively large, given its per-capita
income level and comparable to countries of si-
milar income levels (World Bank, 2010). A posive
outcome noted is that informality rates decreased
from 52% in 2001 to 48% in 2006 following a decli-
ne in agriculture sector informality (to 87% of total
employment in 2006 from 90% in 2001), strong ur-
banizaon and rapid migraon from rural to urban
areas which both led to a decline in rural informali-
ty to 66 from 75%. Nevertheless, as labor shied to
urban areas, informality in nonagricultural sectors
increased from 29 % overall to 34 % in 2001-06.
Meanwhile, wage earners have an informality rate
of 18 %, but constute over half of the labor force
and two thirds of the non-agriculture labor force.
Nevertheless, informality and slow job creaon
seem a repercussion of unfriendly labor market
instuons. In fact, many studies have pointed
to the high-minimum wage, excessively rigid or
protecve labor market regulaons as well as
high non-wage labor costs to be the main factors
that foster informal employment or lead to weak
employment creaon (IMF, 2010a; World Bank,
2010 and 2006). First, Turkeys minimum wage in
the formal sector is binding (it has tripled since
2002) and higher than in most EU member coun-
tries (IMF, 2010 and OECD, 2008). Second, Turkey
has one of the most protecve employment pro-
tecon rules among 28 OECD countries. This is
primarily due to the existence within the protec-
on regulaons of limitaons on temporary em-
ployment, xed term contracts as well as regular
employees. The most signicant factor increasing
the strictness of regular employment protecon
is the high level of severance indemnity payment
compared with most countries. While a worker
with 20 years tenure in Turkey gets 20 mes his
or her monthly wage as severance payment, the
average payment is 6.2 mes in the OECD and 9.8
mes in upper middle income countries. Moreo-
ver the severance pay in Turkey is not limited to
dismissals. Severance pay is paid to male workers
for compulsory military service, female workers
who leave within one year aer marriage, and
workers qualifying for old-age pension.
Finally, high non-wage labor costs add to the cost
of complying with regulaons. The combined em-
ployee employer contribuon rate on payroll taxes
is 36.5 % (pensions, health insurance, work inju-
ries, workmans compensaon and unemployment
insurance): well above the middle-income country
average of 25 %, and the OECD-20 (developed
countries) average of 27.4 %. Unemployment insu-
rance premium (4% of which 2% employers share,
1% employees share, and 1% state contribuon)
also contributes to the non-wage cost of labor.
Eligibility criteria for unemployment benets are
strict when compared with OECD countries. Both
labor market regulaons and the tax wedge crea-
ted by high social security contribuons establish
disincenves for formal sector job creaon.
-219-
VI. Conclusion
Compared to most of its southern Mediterranean
neighbors, Turkey is ahead in terms of democracy.
Yet, while it stands to gain from past democraza-
on and economic reform eorts, there may be a
risk of regression less polical openness because
of concerns about reducing the opposion power.
Turkey was able to weather the strong ouall of the
2008 crisis without facing another full-edged nan-
cial crisis. It short-term outlook is rather opmisc ex-
cept for a large and increasing current account which
is nanced by short-term capital inows and thus re-
mains vulnerable to a sudden stop in these inows, if
global nancial condions deteriorate again.
Unemployment, which has persisted around 10%
despite growth between 2002 and 2007, remains
one of Turkeys medium-term challenges. It is fo-
recasted to decline only slightly and it has been ar-
gued that high long-term growth rates are required
to permanently reduce it. In addion, it is crucial to
address labor market ineciencies that have led to
an expansion of informal jobs or discouraged job
creaon altogether. These ineciencies include
the high minimum wage compared to almost all
new EU member countries, the generous seve-
rance pay scheme (one month per year of tenure)
and restricve regulaons on short-term contracts.
To foster employment, the following recommenda-
ons are suggested:
First, a reducon in informality could increase wa-
ges and producvity in the economy. Irrespecve
of rm size, formal rms pay higher than their in-
formal counterparts. The wage dierenal is much
higher in services (about 55 %) than in manufactu-
ring (about 35 %). Second, increasing the exibility
of the labor market and easing restricve employ-
ment protecon rules could increase the incen-
ves for job creaon. Third, there is a need to align
the workers skills with the needs of the private
sector by improving the quality of educaon and
increasing training provided by employers.
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-221-
b. The calculaon of ad-valorem equivalents for
NTBs: the Kee et al. (2009) approach.
The Kee et al. (2009) approach, also referred to by
KNO (2009) makes it possible to calculate ad-valorem
equivalents of NTBs. Two stages must be implemen-
ted. The rst includes an esmaon of the quanty
impact of NTMs on imports. In a second stage, this
impact is transformed into price eects, using import
demand elascies calculated in Kee et al. (2008).
In the rst stage, the basic equaon to be esma-
ted is the following:
Where mn,c is the import value of good (or industry)
n in country c from i, Ckc denotes a vector of country
characteriscs variables in country c. They include
relave factor endowment and the sum of GDP (of
the reporter and the partner country) which captu-
res economic size. The geographic distance between
MED countries and their Mediterranean partners is
also included. ntmn,c is a dummy variable which
reects the existence of bilateral NTMs. tn,cis the
bilateral tari on good n in country c and n,c cor-
responds to the import demand elascity.
The initial model is subsequently modified as
follows. First, import-demand elasticities esti-
mated in Kee et al. (2008) are substituted into
(4). Second, the tariff term is moved to the left-
hand side to address the endogeneity of tariffs.
This introduces a new error term kn,c. Third, a
White correction is introduced in order to tackle
heterosckedasticity of the error term. Fourth,
product specific effects are also introduced so as
to capture the variation of s across tariff lines.
Fifth, appropriate instrumental variables are
included to address the endogeneity problem
related to NTMs. Indeed, as shown in Lee and
Swagel (1997), such endogeneity may lead to a
downward bias on the estimated impact of NTMs
TECHNICAL ANNEX.
a. The theory behind new gravity models: the An-
derson and van Wincoop (2003) approach
In recent years, the most popular specicaon of
the gravity model can be found in Anderson and
van Wincoop (2003). These authors develop a con-
sistent general theorecal framework with special
emphasis on trade costs from which the gravity
equaon can be derived.
Xijt corresponds to country is exports to country j at
year t. The rst term in brackets includes the mass
variables, namely country is GDP (Yit), country js
GDP (Yjt) as well as world GDP (Ywt). The second
term in brackets reects trade costs. They include
the bilateral trade cost (Tijt) as well as implicit prices
(Pit and Pjt) which measure mullateral trade costs
(Anderson and van Wincoop, 2003).
In the same way, implicit prices can be wrien as [7] :
With i and j denong country i and js income
shares.
Since prices depend on the trade barriers applied
to all countries, they reflect multilateral trade re-
sistance, i.e. the trade barriers that an exporter
faces with all importing countries, not only its
bilateral partner j. As a result, a rise in the trade
costs vis--vis all its partners leads country i to
trade more with its bilateral partner j.
The log-linearization of equation (1) leads to the
new gravity equation where exports depend on
GDP, distance as well as bilateral and multilateral
trade costs.



-222-
on imports, which would result in underestima-
ting AVEs. Sixth, a two-step estimation procedu-
re is implemented to estimate the coefficients,
following a Heckman two-stage procedure.
Aer these transformaons, the nal esmated
equaon becomes:
Esmang equaon (5) with the two-step Hec-
kman procedure (TSHP) described later. The last
step consists of calculang the AVEs aer transfor-
maon of the quanty impact derived from equa-
on (5) into price-equivalents. This leads to:
Where Pd denotes the domesc price. This equa-
on denes AVEs as the eects of NTMs on prices.
The introducon of the price variable is necessary
since, like ad-valorem taris, NTM eects must be
calculated on prices and not on quanes. Aer
dierenaon of equaon (4), it is easy to obtain:
c. The choice of the appropriate esmator.
The selecon of the appropriate esmators is gui-
ded by the potenal econometric biases which may
reduce the relevance of the calculaon of export
potenals. The rst potenal bias concerns hete-
rogeneity which is commonly found in panel data
models. This problem can be addressed through
the inclusion of country and me specic eects,
which capture heterogeneity across countries and
me. It also addresses the problem of the remai-
ning omied variables (Egger, 2004). These specic
eects can be considered as xed or random de-
pending on the nal specicaon of the model. In
this regard, the calculaon of Wald tests enables us
to check that they are very signicant.
A second problem concerns me invariant varia-
bles, whose parameter cannot be esmates throu-
gh xed-eects (FE) esmators, as well as endoge-
neity. This problem can be solved through the use
of the xed-eects vector decomposion (FEVD)
esmator developed by Plmper and Troeger
(2007). This three stage xed-eects model ma-
kes it possible to produce ecient and less biased
parameters of me-invariant variables compared
to random eects models, while dealing with the
endogeneity problem [8]. However, the use of this
esmator has been recently quesoned in the lite-
rature (Greene, 2010).
An alternave esmator also makes it possible to
simultaneously address the problem of endoge-
neity and the me-invariant variables. This is the
Hausman and Taylor esmator, described in Egger
(2004). This is a 2SLS random eect model which
makes it possible to deal with potenal correlaon
between the unobserved bilateral eects and some
of the regressors. Moreover, it provides an esma-
on of me-invariant parameters and is suitable for
out-of-sample predicon (see addional details in
the technical annex).
A nal potenal bias concerns zero observaons for
the bilateral export variable. Zero ows are com-
monly found in gravity model. The simplest way to
deal with this problem consists in esmang equa-
on (1) with a transformed export variable:
Indeed, when Xijt=0, X*ijt=1 and as Xijt in-
creases, lnX*ijtlnXijt. This technique has been
increasingly used in the recent literature, espe-
cially since Chen (2004). However, it does not
specifically address the question of why some
firms export while some others dont (selection
bias). An alternative interesting method is the



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Two-Stage Heckman Procedure (TSHP). It relies
on the idea that zero trade flows in the dataset
do not occur randomly but are the outcome of
a selection procedure. As a result, the TSHP es-
timator provides a correction for this selection
bias [9].
The last bias is specific to the dynamic version
of the model. It relates to the potential correla-
tion between the error term and the lagged de-
pendent variable. Due to the likely existence of
simultaneity bias, the most appropriate method
of estimation appears to be GMM. We used here
the Arellano, Bond and Bovers (ABB) Estimator
(Arellano and Bond, 1998 ; Arellano and Bover,
1995). Basically, the initial structure of the mo-
del is similar to the HT models described in the
technical annex.
To sum up, in order to address the econometric
biases described above, the following estima-
tors has been implemented: Hausman and Tay-
lor, TSHP as well as ABB for the dynamic model.
The estimators are also controlled for cross-sec-
tional heteroskedascticity and serial correla-
tion of the error term by using respectively the
Huber-White Sandwich estimator and the AR1
Cocrane-Orcutt transformation. Finally, multi-
colinearity is controlled through the variance
inflation factor (vif) statistics, which must be
below [10].
d. The detailed econometric results (Tables A1 and A2)
Table A1: Results with various esmators
HT TSHP Heterosc. (HW) AR(1)
Dynamic
ABB
short run long run
GDP reporter 0.8186*** 0.7522*** 0.8103*** 0.8286*** 0.1231*** 0.8632***
GDP partner 0.7719*** 0.5594*** 0.7706*** 0.7829*** 0.1101*** 0.7721***
taris -0.2624*** -0.1044*** -0.2529*** -0.1570*** -0.0186*** -0.1304***
NTBs -0.0396*** -0.0227** -0.0382*** -0.0224** -0.0104*** -0.0529***
logiscs 2.7629*** 2.1222*** 2.7718*** 1.5238** 0.2893*** 2.029***
common language 0.3356*** 0.3629*** 0.3334*** 0.5614*** 0.0782*** 0.5483***
colony 0.5165*** 0.3255** 0.5124*** 0.6508*** 0.0949*** 0.6655***
migraon 0.2744*** 0.2130*** 0.2705*** 0.2712*** 0.0327*** 0.2293***
FDI stocks 0.0274*** 0.1702*** 0.0254*** 0.0189*** 0.0007** 0.0491**
services 0.1778*** 0.1919*** 0.1777*** 0.4722*** 0.0573*** 0.4018***
regional agreements 1.7549*** 1.3119*** 1.7601*** 2.0822*** 0.3085*** 2.1633***
Governance: rule of law 0.2025*** 0.1925*** 0.2042*** 0.1734*** 0.0337** 0.2363***
lagged exports - - - - 0.8574*** -
Intercept -31.0560*** -22.9977*** -31.0025*** -32.9113*** -4.5888*** -32.1795***
selecon variable - 0.2577*** - - - -
Adjusted R-squared 0.7292 - - - - -
VIF 2.47 - - - - -
Hausman 24.8 - - - - -
Note: HT: Hausman and Taylor; TSHP: Two-step Heckman Procedure; Heterosc: Heteroskedasic Huber-Sandwich;
AR(1): Auroregressive model (lag 1); Dynamic ABB: Arellano, Bond and Bover esmator.
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Table A2: Results with various proxies
HT1 HT2 HT3 HT4 HT5 HT6 HT7
Regional Trade costs Governance FDI stocks
Sample
restricted
Agreements Distance logiscs MAOTRI and instut. or ows
to MP
countries
GDP reporter 0.7750*** 0.8041*** 0.8365*** 0.7653*** 0.8186*** 0.8186*** 1.3293***
GDP partner 0.7937*** 0.7692*** 0.7696*** 0.7713*** 0.7719*** 0.7719*** 0.8122***
taris -0.2488*** -0.1706*** -0.2584*** -0.2624*** -0.2624*** -0.3096***
NTBs -0.0444*** -0.0469*** -0.0386*** -0.0396*** -0.0396*** -0.0316***
Distance -0.0001***
logiscs: all 2.3451*** 2.3451*** 2.6324*** 2.7629*** 2.7629*** 3.4194***
logiscs: customs 0.6831***
logiscs: infrastructure 0.5673***
logiscs: shipment 0.6216***
logiscs: competence 0.6388***
logiscs: track 0.7677***
logiscs: meliness 0.1496***
MAOTRI -5.7572***
common language 0.2620*** 0.3391*** 0.3160*** 0.4089*** 0.3356*** 0.3356*** 0.7110***
colony 0.7125*** 0.2857*** 0.5159*** 0.3414*** 0.5165*** 0.5165*** 0.4967***
migraon 0.2566*** 0.2772*** 0.2774*** 0.2800*** 0.2744*** 0.2744*** 0.3472***
FDI: stocks (%GDP) 0.0302*** 0.0234*** 0.0274*** 0.0562*** 0.0274*** 0.0274*** 0.0266***
FDI: stocks (US$) 0.0030*
FDI: ows (%GDP) 0.0496***
FDI: ows (US$) 0.0551***
services 0.2654*** 0.3091*** 0.1933*** 0.2455*** 0.1778*** 0.1778*** 0.2751***
regional agreements: All - 0.6737*** 1.7620*** 1.6579*** 1.7549*** 1.7549***
regional agreements: EU 2.1510***
regional agreements: Euromed 0.3696***
regional agreements: Naa 0.9095***
regional agreements: Mercosur 3.0979***
regional agreements: Asean 1.9566***
regional agreements: Gaa 2.4279***
Governance: rule of law 0.1393*** 0.5260*** 0.1735*** 0.1551*** 0.2025*** 0.2025*** 1.1049***
Governance: polical stability 0.5224***
Governance: government eecveness 0.6299***
Governance: regulatory quality 0.5059***
Governance: voice 0.1929***
Governance: control of corrupon 0.2072***
Intercept -30.6389***-27.7076*** -30.4138*** -29.8901***-31.0560***-31.0560*** -42.3378***
Adjusted R-squared 0.7536 0.7228 0.7294 0.7362 0.7292 0.7293 0.6555
Note: HT1 to HT7 means that the Hausman and Taylor esmator has been used for each sensivity analysis