The Interaction Between Domestic Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy in Israel

Economic Modelling 112 (2022) 105872
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Economic Modelling
journal homepage: www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-modelling
The interaction between domestic monetary policy and macroprudential

policy in Israel☆
Jonathan Benchimol, Inon Gamrasni *, Michael Kahn, Sigal Ribon *, Yossi Saadon,
Noam Ben-Ze’ev, Asaf Segal, Yitzchak Shizgal
Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
JEL classification: The global financial crisis (GFC) triggered the use of macroprudential policies imposed on the banking sector.
E51 Using bank-level panel data for Israel for the period 2004–2019, we find that domestic macroprudential measures
E52 changed the composition of bank credit growth but did not affect the total credit growth rate. Specifically, we
E58
show that macroprudential measures targeted at the housing sector moderated housing credit growth but tended
G01
G21
to increase business credit growth. We also find that accommodative monetary policy surprises tended to increase
G28 bank credit growth before the GFC. We show that accommodative monetary policy surprises increased consumer
Keywords:
credit when interacting with macroprudential policies targeting the housing market. Accommodative monetary
Financial stability policy interacted with nonhousing macroprudential measures to increase total credit.
Policy evaluation
Banking sector
Credit markets
Regulation
Global financial crisis
1. Introduction effect of these measures on total bank credit was weakened due to sub-
stitution effects. We show that the MaP measures targeted at housing
House prices in Israel have more than doubled since 2008, alongside a credit reduced its growth rate, but tended to increase the growth rate of
substantial increase in housing credit (mortgages). This development, business credit. MaP measures targeted at reducing banks’ credit con-
which may pose a significant risk to the financial sector and particularly centration did not significantly affect consumer or business credit, but
to banks, together with an understanding of the importance of the contributed to the growth of housing credit. We find that other general
financial sector stability as a whole, triggered the imposition of macro- MaP measures (capital requirements from the banks) that were expected
prudential (MaP) measures on the banks. This paper analyzes the effects to slow the growth of business credit influenced business credit with a
of MaP policy and domestic monetary policy on domestic bank credit in significant lag, apparently due to the time frame given to the banks to
Israel between 2004 and 2019. We chose to investigate the effects of MaP complete the adjustment of capital and risk assets. While the interaction
policy on housing, consumer (nonhousing), and business sector credit between accommodative monetary policy and MaP measures targeting
separately in order to understand the direct effect of the MaP measures the housing market did not have any additional effect on housing credit,
on the market at which they were targeted and possible effects on the we find weak support for its expansionary effect on consumer credit.
other bank credit sectors and on total credit. Overall, MaP measures did not change the development of total credit
We find that alongside the desired direct, moderating effect of the significantly, but they did change its composition. Monetary policy was
MaP measures on the credit markets at which they were targeted, the generally found to be effective, with less accommodative policy slowing
☆
Any views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Israel. The authors are grateful to Sushanta Mallick
(Editor), the associate editor, anonymous referees, Steven Laufer, and participants at the Bank of Israel Research Department seminar and the International Banking
Research Network (IBRN) Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019), for their helpful comments. This research was initiated as part of the 2018 IBRN project
examining the interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy.
* Corresponding authors.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (I. Gamrasni), [email protected] (S. Ribon).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105872
Received 14 June 2021; Received in revised form 7 April 2022; Accepted 16 April 2022
Available online 20 April 2022
0264-9993/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
J. Benchimol et al. Economic Modelling 112 (2022) 105872
housing and consumer credit growth only before the global financial measures that reinforce monetary policy (i.e., in the same direction of
crisis (GFC). In addition, we find that higher foreign policy rates tended influence) are more effective.
to reduce housing and consumer credit growth, similar to the impact of Everett et al. (2021) contributed to the literature with Dutch and Irish
domestic policy, suggesting their ability to indicate future domestic data.1 They employed a similar methodology to the one we adopt,
monetary policy. examining the effect of monetary policy and MaP policy and their
MaP policy is a regulatory tool that seeks to ensure the financial interaction on domestic mortgage lending. As both Ireland and the
system’s stability, which is necessary for stable economic growth. The Netherlands are small economies in the euro system, monetary policy
overall objective of MaP policy is to limit the buildup of financial vul- shocks may be regarded as exogenous to these two countries. Like Israel,
nerabilities in order to reduce the financial system’s sensitivity to shocks. the banking sector in Ireland and the Netherlands is relatively concen-
MaP policy targets a specific credit sector, such as the consumer, busi- trated and both have employed various MaP measures in the past decade
ness, or housing credit sector, to achieve a particular objective. Specif- against the background of rapid increases in house prices. Everett et al.
ically, MaP measures targeting housing credit are intended to limit (2021) complemented their analysis by using confidential bank-level
banks’ exposure to mortgage defaults. Consequently, most of these data for domestic lending. They found that positive (less accommoda-
measures are expected to increase the mortgage cost, moderating hous- tive) domestic monetary policy shocks reduced mortgage lending growth
ing credit growth. A similar mechanism applies to capital adequacy or in both countries, while prudential regulations weakened this effect in
banking concentration MaP measures. While MaP measures tend to Ireland but not in the Netherlands. They found only weak evidence for an
decrease the growth rate of the targeted credit, substitution effects may international lending channel: a foreign (US, UK) monetary policy shock,
be reflected in the growth of other credit sectors. For instance, MaP with or without interaction with the MaP measures, was found to have no
measures targeting housing credit may increase consumer credit as the significant effect on mortgage lending for Ireland, while for the
latter may serve as an alternative to the former, whether for banks as Netherlands, weak evidence was found that tightening monetary policy
suppliers of credit or for borrowers as demanders of credit. Alternatively, in the UK reduces mortgage lending.
consumer credit may decline if MaP measures decrease the demand for Cao et al. (2021) studied the interaction between MaP policy and
housing, thus reducing the demand for housing-related consumption and monetary policy in Norway and Sweden and found evidence that
consumer credit. Another example relates to MaP measures that limit aggregate MaP policy depresses aggregate lending, although different
credit to large companies. The supply of this credit may move to smaller types of MaP measures do not lead to significantly different effects.
businesses but can also be routed to housing or consumer credit. Bussiere et al. (2021) summarized the main findings of seven papers that
The use of MaP measures has expanded since the GFC (Cerutti et al., related mainly to MaP policies targeted at capital flows and the possible
2017). The theoretical literature based on dynamic stochastic general spillovers from monetary policies in core economies to recipient econo-
equilibrium (DSGE) models supports the view that MaP measures can mies. The findings show that MaP policies in recipient countries can
dampen credit cycles. Using a DSGE model with a housing sector, Kannan partly offset monetary policy spillover effects from the core (large)
et al. (2012) demonstrated that monetary and macroeconomic policies economies. Bussiere et al. (2021) also remarked that the impact differs
can help stabilize the economy, given the shocks that hit the economy. considerably across MaP policy instruments, suggesting the importance
When financial or housing demand shocks drive a credit and housing of a detailed analysis.
boom, MaP measures can temper them and improve welfare. Neverthe- In the absence of any interest rate adjustment, a credit-restricting
less, DSGE models offer limited empirical guidance on the influence of MaP shock could reduce the debt to GDP ratio in the short term, but it
the interaction between MaP measures and monetary policy on credit is unlikely to reduce the ratio of firms’ debt to their internal funds.
cycles. We aim to assess these empirical linkages. Repullo and Suarez Greenwood-Nimmo and Tarassow (2016) suggested that MaP policy
(2013) showed that the credit (financial) and business cycles are not alone is likely to have ambiguous effects on financial stability. Never-
necessarily synchronized. Therefore, monetary policy alone cannot theless, MaP policy is rarely used alone. When monetary policy adjusts in
smooth both cycles. Consequently, MaP policy plays a more significant response to an MaP shock, both ratios decrease substantially, indicating
role in moderating the financial cycle according to their analysis, thus, an increase in financial stability. According to this finding, a combination
promoting financial stability, while monetary policy remains responsible of monetary and MaP measures for achieving financial stability may be
for price and output stability. desirable, as Yellen (2014) advocated. Arena et al. (2020) highlighted the
The effects of the interaction between MaP and monetary policies is possibility that MaP policies can limit riskier mortgages and contribute to
still unsettled (Dell’Ariccia et al., 2012; IMF, 2013; Aiyar et al., 2014). De stronger bank balance sheets, countering the accommodative monetary
Marco et al. (2021) found that stricter monetary policy and MaP mea- policy stance. Following this line of thought, we analyze the interaction
sures reinforced each other for the UK, but only for small banks. Simi- between MaP and monetary policies and their effect on credit growth.
larly, Forbes et al. (2017) found that monetary policy can amplify the Following Altavilla et al. (2020), we show that monetary policy and
impact of regulatory measures. By contrast, De Jonghe et al. (2020) MaP measures are mutually reinforcing in relation to consumer loans
found a trade-off between monetary policy and supervisory capital re- more than to mortgage loans. This result may be related to the
quirements in the case of Belgium: the higher the banks’ capital re- risk-weighted ratio of capital to assets. Part of the banks’ income can be
quirements are, the weaker the effect of monetary accommodation on used to rebuild capital and increase headroom if the latter is below its
credit supply is. Cerutti et al. (2017) found that MaP measures have less normal level, and margins on consumer loans can be raised to speed up
of an effect on credit growth in advanced economies that tend to have the process (Davis et al., 2019).
alternative sources of nonbank credit and enable borrowers to obtain As a small open economy, more than half of Israel’s trades are related to
funds from abroad in more open economies. We seek to understand how the US and the Eurozone. Imported inflation and capital flows from these
MaP policy affects each component of bank credit, and whether the places directly influence domestic monetary policy and thus credit ag-
interaction with monetary policy has an additional effect on these credit gregates. Our findings that higher foreign policy rates moderate housing
sectors. and consumer credit growth while tending to increase business sector
Gambacorta and Murcia (2020) examined the effect of domestic MaP credit growth complement the findings of Niepmann et al. (2020).
measures on domestic credit through an empirical exercise similar to Although foreign credit is not significant in Israel, our results indicate the
ours. Unlike in our estimation, they used granular information on bank importance of foreign monetary policy surprises for local credit aggregates.
loans at the firm level from eight different countries. They found that
MaP measures are successful in easing credit cycles and reducing banking
sector risk. They also found that bank-specific characteristics influence 1
Everett et al. (2021), Cao et al. (2021), and Bussiere et al. (2021) were all
the impact of MaP measures on credit. Finally, they found that MaP part of the 2018 International Banking Research Network (IBRN) project.
2
Fig. 1. Annual GDP growth in Israel and advanced and emerging economies.
Notes: Annual GDP growth in percent. Sources: Bloomberg and Central Bureau Fig. 2. House starts and house prices in Israel.
of Statistics. Notes: The left axis relates to the housing starts in units, and the right axis relates
to nominal house prices, which are expressed in annual percentage changes.
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly
presents the economic background and the Israeli environment. Section 3
describes the data used in Section 4 for the estimations and results.
Section 5 presents robustness checks and Section 6 concludes. The Ap-
pendix presents additional results.
2. Economic and policy background
2.1. Macroeconomic background
Since the beginning of the new millennium, particularly after 2003

(and until 2019), the Israeli economy has enjoyed a relatively stable
macroeconomic environment characterized by high growth rates and
price stability. The economy was hit during these years by two major
crises. The first, at the end of 2001, was due to the dot-com crisis coupled
with local geopolitical hostilities. The second was the GFC, which the
Israeli economy weathered quite well, experiencing only a short period of Fig. 3. House prices in Israel and various countries.
slowdown at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 before returning Notes: The house price index is 100 in 2007.
to growth rates close to its potential in the second half of 2009 (Fig. 1). Source: OECD
Compared with the crisis’ adverse effect on other advanced econo-
mies overall, the impact in Israel was relatively mild, more akin to the and wealth, contributing to the rapid price increases.2
experience of developing economies. In particular, the crisis had a The housing supply side in Israel is generally inelastic. The planning
limited and moderate effect on Israel’s financial system, and the financial process in Israel is very long and takes about 13 years, on average. This
institutions remained stable. The factors contributing to the GFC’s rela- slow supply response results in large price effects in response to positive
tively mild effect on Israel include a conservative financial system (and in demand shocks.
particular a conservative and closely supervised banking system), a A significant government program that was launched in 2015, which
relatively balanced housing market, and a successful economic policy essentially subsidizes new apartments for buyers who meet specific
(both fiscal and monetary). Since the beginning of the 2000s, Israel has characteristics (young first-time buyers), has had a significant impact on
enjoyed low inflation rates within the framework of an inflation- the market. This is because it removes both supply and demand from the
targeting regime, with the target set between 1 and 3 percent, and free market, while in contrast, it may encourage households that did not
actual inflation fluctuated around this target range. In recent years, plan to purchase a home to enter the market. Even before that, taxation
inflation has been lower than the target, and monetary policy is generally had been changed to reduce investor demand.
characterized as accommodative (see details in Section 2.4). In the last few years of our sample, signs of a market slowdown have
emerged, with declines in both housing starts and transactions and prices
2.2. Housing sector moderating and even declining for several quarters. The annual price
increase in 2019 was about 3.5 percent (Fig. 2).
Israel enjoyed a vast influx of immigrants during the 1990s, As noted above, since 2008, house prices in Israel have increased
increasing its population by about 20 percent (1 million people) within nominally by about 130 percent. This rate of increase was exceptional
five years. The housing market—the private sector, accompanied by compared to other countries (Fig. 3). Looking at a different starting point
government intervention—reacted, and housing starts surged at the partially reduces Israel’s deviations from other countries. Comparing
beginning of the 1990s, with prices increasing at double-digit rates. The recent price-to-income ratios with past ones strongly warns of relatively
cycle ended in the early 2000s, with building activity and house prices high house prices in Israel as of the end of 2019.
declining by about 12 percent from peak to trough. Between 2007 and
2018, house prices rose steadily, with the price level more than doubling
within a decade (Fig. 2).
On the supply side, building starts reacted sluggishly to the increase
2
in demand arising from both demographic needs and the rise in income See the Bank of Israel Annual Reports for 2017 and 2018.
3
Fig. 4. Banks’ share of business and consumer credit.

Fig. 5a. Bank Credit Balance.
Notes: Percentage of consumer and business credit issued by private banks in
Notes: Credit balance of the seven major banks in Israel in NIS billion.
Israel. Source: Bank of Israel, Banking Supervision Department.
Source: Bank of Israel, Banking Supervision Department.
2.3. Banking sector

2.4. Monetary policy
The Israeli banking sector is relatively concentrated and consists of a
Since 2003, monetary policy in Israel has been conducted within the
small number of banks. Seven banking groups control most of the do-
framework of a “flexible inflation target” regime, with the target set
mestic banking system, representing 99.6 percent of the banking sector,
within a 1–3 percent band, and allowing for temporary deviations from
with two dominant banking groups (Bank Leumi and Bank Hapoalim)
the target range. The exchange rate regime may be characterized as a
accounting for more than 50 percent of the market.
“managed float,” as the Bank of Israel has been intervening in the foreign
In our analysis, we focus on the credit portfolio of these seven banks.3
exchange market since March 2008—at first with pre-announced daily
The concentrated structure of the Israeli banking sector may be attributed
fixed amounts and since August 2009 in a discretionary manner, ac-
to the small size of the Israeli economy, together with the existence of
cording to market conditions (Caspi et al., 2021).4
economies of scale and scope.
Since the GFC, domestic monetary policy has been very accommo-
Due to conservative management and very close supervision, the
dative. The Bank of Israel did not set negative interest rates but, as noted
banks in Israel exhibited substantial resilience to the developments of the
above, it did use intervention in the foreign exchange market and gov-
GFC in the global financial system.
ernment bond purchases for a short period as additional tools, and for-
In the past, not only the banking system suffered from a high level of
ward guidance to communicate the future monetary policy path better.
concentration, but the entire credit market did as well. Yet, the past two
The interest rate remained the principal monetary policy instrument. It
decades have seen changes due to the government reducing its primary
was set to 0.1 percent in 2015, and increased to 0.25 percent in
borrower role in the economy. This change shifted private capital from
November 2018 (Fig. 6).
investments in government bonds to private sector investments, thus
Looking farther into the past, the decline in the Bank of Israel’s
easing big companies’ access to credit from the capital markets, creating
nominal interest rate reflected both the adaptation to a lower inflation
a movement toward nonbank credit. In addition, the number of loans
environment and a decline in real interest rates, from about six percent at
given by institutional investors has grown, thanks to changes in the array
the beginning of the 2000s to about two percent a decade into the mil-
of pension plans in Israel. These loans also contribute to the reduction of
lennium, and to around zero in recent years, in line with the very
the banks’ share of business and consumer credit (Fig. 4).
accommodative global monetary policy.
The domestic credit portfolio among the seven big banks, which in-
cludes business (nonfinancial) credit and credit to households, has been
growing since 2001. The largest component is the household sector, 2.5. Regulation and macroprudential measures
which includes rising levels of housing loans. In the fourth quarter of
2019, the total amount of credit stood at NIS 970 billion, the equivalent The debt to GDP ratio in Israel is low relative to other countries. Total
of approximately 69 percent of Israel’s annual GDP (Fig. 5a). debt to GDP is about 180 percent, with household debt (housing and
The share of housing credit in GDP has grown in view of increasing consumer) to GDP particularly low at around 40 percent in 2019, with no
house prices. Consumer credit has remained relatively stable relative to significant change since 2000. Total business sector debt (excluding
GDP, and credit to large businesses has declined (Fig. 5b). financial institutions) to GDP was about 70 percent in 2019, with bank
On the side of business credit, the reduction in credit to GDP ratio can credit constituting about half of this credit. Public debt to GDP in 2019
be linked to factors such as (1) requiring banks to reach regulatory capital was around 60 percent.
targets by decreasing big business credit’s share of total credit, (2) setting In the past decade, the risk stemming from the housing market was
limits that should minimize concentration among borrowers, and (3) the main concern for Israel’s financial stability. Of particular note was the
increasing access to institutional and market lending. banks’ large exposure to the housing market, comprising housing credit
that has grown considerably over the past decade (Fig. 5a), and credit
exposure to the construction and real estate sectors, which together
4
In addition, the Bank of Israel purchased a pre-announced amount annually
3
Leumi, Hapoalim, Discount, Mizrahi-Tefahot, First International, Union as part of a program intended to offset the effects of natural gas production on
Bank, and Bank of Jerusalem. the exchange rate. This program ceased at the beginning of 2019.
4
only 15 percent of mortgage borrowers were affected by this move. The

measure incentivized riskier borrowers to reduce leverage with an LTV of
over 60 percent. In response to these restrictions, borrowers bought less
expensive homes, farther from the center of the country, and in poorer
neighborhoods.
Between 2011 and 2014, several MaP measures were adopted to
strengthen banks’ and households’ stability. Although influencing house
prices was not a declared goal of the Bank of Israel, moderated house
prices would have been a welcome outcome.
In 2011, a limitation stating that only up to one-third of the total loan
can bear interest at a variable rate that is adjusted at a frequency of up to
5 years was established. This measure was introduced to cope with the
high demand for variable-rate loans in view of low interest rates, which
led to new loans with variable interest rates reaching 80 percent of total
new loans at that time.
Due to the continuing rise in housing prices and mortgage volumes,
additional measures were implemented to limit exposure to mortgage
loans. In October 2012, the LTV ratio was limited to 70 percent, except
Fig. 5b. Bank Credit to GDP Ratio.
for first-time homebuyers (75 percent) and investors, including non-
Notes: Ratio of business, housing, and consumer credit to real GDP of the seven
major banks in Israel. Source: Bank of Israel, Banking Supervision Department.
residents (50 percent).
In March 2013, risk weights on some housing loans increased, and at
the end of August 2013, four new measures were introduced: the PTI
account for 47 percent of total bank credit. Against the background of the
(payment-to-income) ratio was limited to 50 percent of income; housing
low interest rates since the GFC, households took a large portion of
loans where the monthly repayment is over 40 percent of income were
housing loans in a floating interest rate, which was cheaper than a fixed
weighted at 100 percent of RWA to calculate the capital adequacy ratio;
interest rate. However, the floating interest rate exposed households to
the portion of the loan at a variable rate was limited to two-thirds of the
risks stemming from a possible rise in market interest rates.
total loan, and the portion of the loan at a variable rate that can change
The Bank of Israel began to implement MaP measures at a relatively
within five years was limited to one-third of the total loan; the loan
early stage of the financial cycle, about two years after the house price
period was limited to 30 years (inclusive).
cycle started in 2008. Although the MaP measures targeting the housing
In September 2014, an additional capital allowance requirement was
sector were substantial, other MaP classes were also used in Israel during
introduced, amounting to 1 percent of outstanding housing loans, to
the past two decades. Some of them aimed to reduce the risks arising
address vulnerabilities and boost the banks’ loss absorption capacity.
from the concentration of the banks’ credit portfolio. Others aimed to
Until 2017, house prices continued to rise despite the measures taken.
reduce general risks of the banks and were associated with the Basel
The housing market remained very active, mortgage interest rates
regulations. We divide these MaP measures into three major groups.5 In
continued to decline, and the volume of mortgage lending rose, as did the
the following sections, we refer to the measures taken in each group. A
volume of housing market transactions.
summary of all MaP measures taken by the Bank of Israel and included in
In addition to the MaP measures that the Bank of Israel implemented,
these groups is presented in Table 1.
other factors that were no less important affected both the supply side,
such as government measures to increase the supply of land available for
2.5.1. Housing market measures
construction and to increase the number of housing starts, and the de-
MaP measures in the housing sector contain LTV-oriented measures
mand side, such as government fiscal measures (taxation).
aimed at influencing the quality of mortgages and borrowers’ risk, and
thus the level of risk to the banks from the mortgage market, and other
2.5.2. General capital requirement measures
measures aimed at strengthening the banks’ resilience to a crisis, such as
Another group of MaP measures, based on capital tools, aims to in-
increased provisions and additional capital requirements (Claessens
crease the banking system’s stability and reduce systemic risks. Until
et al., 2013; Aiyar et al., 2014).
2010 capital requirements were only a recommendation to the banks. In
The first measures that were implemented in 2010 were capital re-
mid-2010, the Bank of Israel’s Banking Supervision Department started
quirements for risky loans, and provisions and restrictions on the char-
implementing the Basel II framework and set the core capital ratio target
acteristics of the loans that can be offered by the banks were set.6
to a minimum of 7.5 percent. The banks had to achieve the Banking
In addition, a requirement for a supplementary capital allowance
Supervision requirement by the end of 2010. Naturally, achieving the
regarding housing loans was introduced. The risk-weighted assets (RWA)
minimum capital ratio target on time forced the banks to adjust their core
capital allocation criterion is 100 percent for loans of groups of borrowers
capital ratio right after the requirement was published.
who buy properties collectively. Later, in two consecutive measures (in
The implementation of Basel III in Israel led the Banking Supervision
July and October 2010), the RWA was set to 100 percent for loans with
in 2012 to announce an update of the core capital ratio requirement to no
an LTV greater than 60 percent when the variable-rate credit component
lower than 9 percent by the beginning of 2015. Two banks (out of the
comprises more than 25 percent and the level of the loan is over NIS
seven in our sample), classified as large banks, were required to achieve a
800,000.
core capital ratio of no lower than 10 percent by the beginning of 2017.
Regarding the MaP measure taken in October 2010—restrictions on
As before, the adjustment processes started right after the publication of
the level of LTV—on house prices and borrowers, Baudot-Trajtenberg
the requirements. Concerning the excess requirement of the large banks,
et al. (2017) found that the impact on house prices was limited, since
we assume that the adjustment processes to achieve the extra 1 percent
core capital ratio started right after the general requirement of 9 percent
for all seven banks had to be fulfilled, i.e., the beginning of 2015.
5
See Section 3.4 for an explanation of the classification. As part of the Basel III framework, the Banking Supervision Depart-
6
In 2009 banks were warned to inform their customers of risks related to ment implemented a minimum liquidity coverage ratio of 100 percent.
loans with variable interest rates. This warning is not included in the list of Liquidity requirements limit the credit supply so that banking corpora-
formal MaP measures that were implemented. tions have to increase the liquidity assets in their balance sheets.
5
Table 1
Macroprudential measures.
Stability Measures Decision Date Application Date Influence Date Type
1 The directive regarding limitations on the indebtedness of a borrower and a group of borrowers was 20/08/2003 31/03/2004 20/08/2003 CON
amended.
2 A 100% capital surcharge on groups of borrowers who buy properties collectively. 25/03/2010 01/04/2010 25/03/2010 HSE
3 Banking corporations shall make a supplemental provision at the rate of at least 0.75 percent on account 11/07/2010 01/07/2010 11/07/2010 HSE
of outstanding housing loans that were issued on or after July 1, 2010, and in which the existing ratio in
each case between the debt (prorated to the bank’s share of the mortgage) and the value of the
mortgaged property on the date of loan execution exceeds 60 percent.
4 Risk weights increased on housing loans with LTVs above 60%, a floating component of more than 25%, 28/10/2010 26/10/2010 26/10/2010 HSE
and a mortgage value greater than NIS 800,000. A minimum risk weight of 100% is applied to these
mortgages (banks can lower it to 75%). This is a change from the previous 35–75% range.
5 The core capital ratio target shall be set to a rate no lower than 7.5 percent. 30/06/2010 31/12/2010 30/06/2010 GEN
6 Limiting variable interest to a maximum of one-third of the mortgage loan. 03/05/2011 05/05/2011 05/05/2011 HSE
7 Limiting LTV ratio in housing loans: up to 75% for first-time homebuyers, up to 50% for investors, and 01/11/2012 01/11/2012 01/11/2012 HSE
up to 70% for those upgrading their homes.
8 Risk weights on some housing loans are increased, depending on their LTV. Loans with LTVs between 21/03/2013 01/01/2013 01/01/2013 HSE
45% and 60% have a higher risk weight of 50%, and those with LTVs between 60% and 75% are
weighted at 75%.
9 A bank will not issue a housing loan with a PTI of more than 50%. 29/08/2013 01/09/2013 01/09/2013 HSE
10 Risk weight of 100% imposed on mortgages with payment to income (PTI) between 40% and 50% 29/08/2013 01/09/2013 01/09/2013 HSE
11 The maximum variable rate portion of a mortgage loan cannot exceed 2/3, and the maximum portion of 29/08/2013 01/09/2013 01/09/2013 HSE
a variable rate that can change within 5 years from the date of approval cannot exceed 1/3.
12 A loan shall not be approved or granted if the term to final repayment exceeds 30 years. 29/08/2013 01/09/2013 01/09/2013 HSE
13 A. Banking corporations should increase their Common Equity Tier I Capital target by a rate that 28/09/2014 01/01/2015 28/09/2014 HSE
represents 1 percent of their outstanding housing loans.
B. Banking corporations may reduce the risk weight attributed to variable interest leveraged loans from
100% to 75%.
As the first decision was more influential than the second, ultimately the decisions were declared
to be a stringency.
14 Basel III - Small & Large Banks: Tier 1 Capital target 28/03/2012 01/01/2015 28/03/2012 GEN
15 Basel III - Small & Large Banks: Total Capital Target 28/03/2012 01/01/2015 28/03/2012 GEN
16 Limitations on borrowers’/groups of borrowers’ indebtedness: (1) the indebtedness of a borrower other 09/06/2015 01/01/2016 09/06/2015 CON
than a bank to a banking corporation shall not exceed 15% of the banking corporation’s capital; (2) the
indebtedness of a group of borrowers to a banking corporation shall not exceed 25% of the banking
corporation’s capital; (3) the indebtedness of a banking group of borrowers to a banking corporation
shall not exceed 15% of the banking corporation’s capital; (4) the indebtedness of a controlled group of
borrowers to a banking corporation shall not exceed 50% of the banking corporation’s capital; (5) the
total indebtedness of all “borrowers,” “groups of borrowers,” and “banking groups of borrowers,” whose
net indebtedness to the banking corporation exceeds 10% of the banking corporation’s capital, shall not
exceed 120% of the banking corporation’s capital.
17 Basel III - Large Banks 28/03/2012 01/01/2017 01/01/2015 GEN
Notes: Housing combines two categories: Real Estate Credit (REC) and LTV limits. CON stands for concentration limits; HSE stands for housing macroprudential
regulation; GEN stands for general capital requirements. Application Date is the date of the MaP measure’s application, Decision Date is the communication’s date, and
Influence Date is the date since the MaP measures were assumed to influence the credit aggregates.
Moreover, an additional leverage ratio surcharge also helps to control the Department on a quarterly basis in accordance with Banking Supervision
banking system’s leverage. It may influence the banks’ capital and, as a Directive 831.
result, credit supply. In our analysis, we refer to liquidity and capital tools The data include credit to the public,7 deposits, and other assets and
together as bank stability tools. liabilities, excluding bonds and securities that were borrowed or pur-
chased under repurchase agreements. The credit data is disaggregated to
2.5.3. Concentration measures commercial credit, which we refer to as business credit,8 housing credit,
Our analysis distinguishes between MaP measures targeting lending and other credit to households (consumer credit).
concentration, i.e., measures limiting credit to big borrowers, and gen- Other than the credit data, the source for the rest of the banking
eral capital requirement measures, since each of the two groups may system’s data is the publicly available quarterly reports of the banks,
affect banks’ credit differently. As a result of the big borrowers’ domi- describing the level of liquid assets, liabilities to assets, and deposits to
nance in the business sector, a MaP directive limiting the indebtedness of assets. We include cash, deposits, and securities in the liquid assets
borrowers or groups of borrowers was announced in 2003. This MaP category, provided that they are not encumbered to the lenders.
measure limited the banks’ capital exposures to big borrowers, thus Our panel includes the seven largest banks in the domestic banking
changing the banking sector supply for credit distribution by increasing sector, which account for about 99 percent of the sector (see Section 2.3).
the proportions of small and medium businesses and households. In
2015, more restrictive measures for big borrowers and groups of bor-
rowers were imposed.
7
During the first quarter of 2011, changes were made in the Banking Su-
3. The data
pervision Department directives. This created a break in the banking system’s
credit data. In order to deal with this discontinuity of the series, we included a
3.1. Bank credit dummy variable in the estimation to represent the reporting change.
8
Including agriculture, industry, electricity, water, construction and real es-
The bank credit data are taken from the domestic banks’ confidential tate, commerce, transportation, information and telecommunications, and other
reports to the Bank of Israel, submitted to the Banking Supervision business credit, excluding credit for financial services.
6
3.2. Capital adequacy
Capital adequacy measures the amount of capital available to a bank

to face unexpected losses that can be incurred due to a realization of risks
to which the bank is exposed. The supervision policy is expressed in two
ways: through a minimum capital requirement and by ensuring the
quality of the capital. Besides applying the various Basel rules in Israel,
the Bank of Israel’s Banking Supervision Department establishes further
requirements.
Since 2010, the Banking Supervision Department’s requirements
have dealt separately with two sets of capital: total capital (including tier
one, tier two, and tier three capital) and tier one capital, or core capital,
on its own—a distinction that preceded the final recommendation of
Basel III.
In our empirical exercise, we use the gap between the ratio of actual
capital to risk components of the banks and the Banking Supervision’s Fig. 6. Bank of Israel, federal reserve, and ECB interest rates.
most recent requirement, even if it had not yet been implemented. For Notes: Nominal interest rates. Sources: Bank of Israel, European Central Bank,
example, in March 2012, the Banking Supervision published minimum and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
core capital targets, which the banks had to reach by the beginning of
2015. In the paper, the gap for the years 2012–15 is calculated as the Our estimation also includes monetary surprises in the US, and in an
difference between the actual ratio for each period and the target ratio alternative specification, we add surprises in the eurozone (see the Ap-
for 2015, with the understanding that the banks’ policy changed during pendix), both presented in Fig. 8. As noted above, the Israeli banking
these years to reach the target. system is entirely local, with practically no active foreign-owned banks.
The source of the capital adequacy data is the financial statements Moreover, the share of loans denominated in foreign currency is rela-
published by the banks each quarter, yet the requirement for “tier one” tively small, especially in the consumer and mortgage sectors. Still, as the
capital was declared only in 2010. Therefore, before 2010, the gap be- ability to substitute local currency credit with credit denominated in (or
tween the ratio of actual capital to risk components of the banks and the linked to) foreign currency exists, we opt to test the importance of this
most recent Banking Supervision requirement refers to the “total capital” factor on the bank credit growth rate.
data that have been available since the 1990s. We derive monetary policy surprises in the US and eurozone econo-
mies using the same methodology as for the Israeli economy (Fig. 8). As
3.3. Monetary policy surprises seen in Fig. 8, the magnitude of the ECB’s monetary policy surprises is
much smaller than that of the Fed. The correlation between these
As is customary in the literature (Gürkaynak et al., 2005; Gertler and measured surprises is about 0.5 between any two measures.
Karadi, 2015; Cesa-Bianchi et al., 2020; Andrade and Ferroni, 2021), we
use the unexpected component of the interest rates as an (exogenous) 3.4. Prudential measures
indicator of monetary policy to avoid endogeneity issues.
There are several possible empirical measurements of monetary pol- We refer in our estimation to the list of MaP measures summarized in
icy surprises. The most common measurement, based on the financial Table 1. We classify the MaP measures into three groups10: MaP measures
markets’ expectations, was first analyzed by Gürkaynak et al. (2005) for on the housing market; measures related to limitations on core capital
the US. Although Kutai (2020) suggests a similar methodology for Israel level, which refer to the general bank credit market; and measures
in line with the literature, due to data limitations, the period the Israeli related to credit concentration. As shown in Table 1, most of the MaP
data covers, starting from 2007, is too short for our estimations. Conse- measures target the housing sector. We cannot identify the importance of
quently, the monetary policy surprises we use in our estimations are each of these measures ex ante. Therefore, as is well accepted in this
derived from the difference between the interest rate set by the Bank of literature (e.g., Cerutti et al., 2017), we assume that each of the measures
Israel and the average of all the available forecasts made by professional has the same weight, gather all the measures into one group, and
forecasters before the interest rate decision, which we extracted from construct a cumulative index of these measures.
Bloomberg, starting from 2003. The first group includes measures aimed at the housing market, and
Following the GFC, we can observe several periods of monetary sur- can be characterized as measures limiting borrowers, such as LTV (loan-
prises captured by both methodologies. Between 2012 and 2014, some to-value) and PTI (payment-to-income) limits, or as measures that set
monetary policy decisions surprised both market forecasts and expert limitations on the banks, such as differential or excess risk weights.
forecasts. The second group includes general capital and liquidity requirement
Fig. 7 shows that the two measures have similar patterns, with a few measures, i.e., measures mainly referring to the implementation of Basel
exceptions, leading to a correlation coefficient of around 0.84. Our data capital agreements (hereinafter: “general”); the third group includes
for monetary policy surprises derived using expert forecasts span a more measures aimed at lessening banks’ credit concentration by forcing
extended period than the data constructed using market-based forecasts. limitations on credit to big borrowers. Even though the latter two may be
Thus, the correlation justifies our use of monetary policy surprises based related to the bank’s business credit sector, these groups are separated in
on expert forecasts in our estimations. the benchmark estimation since we want to test whether each of these
We aggregate the surprises to quarterly data by summing surprises two groups affected housing and consumer credit differently.11 We
related to each decision during the corresponding quarter.9 As shown in exclude two types of measures related to reserve requirements on foreign
Fig. 7, surprises are almost absent after mid-2015, in view of the stable currency-denominated accounts and interbank exposure limits. These
interest rate of 0.1 percent since that time.
10
Our classification of all MaP measures is based on the IBRN international
9
Until April 2017, interest rate decisions were made by the Bank of Israel 12 dataset of MaP measures.
11
times a year, toward the end of each month. Since April 2017, the Committee Our robustness checks aggregate the general and concentration groups dis-
has decided on the interest rate eight times a year. cussed in Section 5.
7
Fig. 7. Market- and expert-based monetary policy surprises.

Fig. 8. Monetary policy surprises in the US, eurozone, and Israel.
Sources: Kutai (2020) and Bloomberg.
Source: Bloomberg.
types include only three MaP measures that aimed to address specific
reapproval. For the estimation of the business credit sector, we lag the
issues and were not supposed to affect the credit sector we investigated.12
accumulated measures by four quarters, rather than by one quarter as in
General MaP measures were aimed at increasing the bank’s sound-
the other sectors. This is because while shifting credit from the business
ness, which can affect all bank credit sectors or a specific sector.
sector to the other sectors can lead this process, the process of reducing
Reducing the growth rate of business credit may be the preferred reaction
the credit of the business sector can be done only after the reapproval of a
to the general MaP measures, due to their high weight as risk assets. The
credit portfolio under the new concentration restrictions.
concentration MaP measures are aimed at reducing the share of big
Table 2 reveals that, with the exception of one MaP measure, all of the
borrowers in each bank’s assets, i.e., reducing the bank’s business credit
MaP measures were implemented after the GFC. Therefore, there is no
volume.
need to distinguish in the estimations between pre- and post-GFC when
In the estimation of each of the types of credit—housing, consumer,
relating to the MaP measures or their interaction with monetary policy. It
business, and total credit—we include the three groups of MaP measures.
is also evident that the use of housing MaP measures is more intensive
We expect measures that refer to the studied credit sector to moderate its
than other measures due to the rapid increases in house prices during
growth rate, while MaP measures that refer to other types of credit,
these years (Figs. 3 and 4).
which are substitutes for the banks as suppliers of credit, or for the
borrowers as demanders of credit, may work to increase the growth rate
of the credit studied. 3.5. Other macroeconomic variables
Each of the MaP categories is assigned the value of 1 in periods in
which at least one MaP measure in the category became effective (ac- In order to take into account the effect of the business cycle and
cording to the column “Influence Date” in Table 1). We allow different housing market activity on credit aggregates, we add control variables
time spans for MaP measures to affect the market. For housing MaP such as unemployment rate, change in real wages, business sector GDP
measures, we include the accumulation of measures since the beginning growth, and real change in house prices. A detailed description of the
of the studied period as the indicator variable, lagged one period, as we macroeconomic variables in each specification is presented below in
assume that the implemented measures continue to affect the market as Section 4.
long as they are in place and reflect the MaP policy stance. General MaP
measures are included in the estimation accumulated over eight quarters, 3.6. Sample period
lagged one-quarter relative to the date they became effective. We use this
accumulated period since after the threshold for capital adequacy is The estimation is carried out as a weighted cross-section panel esti-
achieved (plus some buffer), the effect of the restriction on the credit mation, correcting for cross-section heteroscedasticity and contempora-
growth rate ceases. Eight quarters is a period that covers the maximum neous correlation. The estimation is performed for seven banks over 63
number of periods between the time a general MaP measure began periods (2004:Q2–2019:Q4) for a total of 441 observations. The depen-
influencing banks’ behavior and the time it had to be applied (See dent variable is the log difference of the real quarterly volume of credit.
Table 1). All the thresholds were achieved by the banks before the due Due to the substantial impact of the GFC on policy and the market, we
date, and so accumulating over a longer period is unnecessary. Once distinguish monetary policy surprises before and after the GFC, starting
banks achieve the recommended capital adequacy, the MaP policy stance from the third quarter of 2008.
toward tightening banking risks is fulfilled.
The concentration measures were accumulated over four quarters, 4. Estimation and results
lagged one period. We accumulate four quarters backward since the
volume of business credit that a bank extends, on which these measures As described in Section 2, the banking sector in Israel is characterized
are intended to operate, is approved and validated once a year. Imple- by a small number of domestic banks for which lending activity is
mentation of the concentration restrictions may therefore be fulfilled concentrated in the domestic market, and its sources are domestic as
over one year after the credit portfolio of all businesses come up for well. That is, the lending activity abroad of the domestic banks and the
activities of foreign banks in the domestic market are marginal. Natu-
rally, those qualities lead us to focus on estimates of the influence of the
12
domestic monetary policy and domestic MaP measures, and the
In 2011, the Bank of Israel changed definitions related to interbank loans,
which we exclude from our data (we use credit for the nonfinancial sector only),
and raised the reserve requirement imposed on banking corporations for FX
derivative transactions by nonresidents (we use local credit only).
8
Table 2 as business credit), either due to a shift in the demand for this credit due
Macroprudential measures by category and quarter imposed. to limitations on borrowers, or due to supply-side considerations on the
Concentration General Housing part of the banks, so that the effect of these measures on total bank credit
may have been small or insignificant. The same may hold for the general
Sep-03 1
Mar-10 1 and concentration MaP measures: they may have induced a possible in-
Jun-10 1 direct substitution effect alongside the direct moderating effect on
Sep-10 1 business, and possibly consumer and housing, credit. In order to analyze
Dec-10 1 the direct and indirect effects of the three classes of MaP measures, we
Jun-11 1
Jun-12 1
choose to include all three in the estimation of each of the separate credit
Dec-12 1 components. In addition, we estimate their effect on the growth rate of
Mar-13 1 total domestic bank credit, which comprises housing, consumer, and
Sep-13 1 business credit.
Sep-14 1
As mentioned above, we include in the estimations each of the three
Mar-15 1*
Jun-15 1 MaP housing, concentration, and general measures accumulated over
different lengths of periods. While we find that the effect of housing MaP
Notes: *Large banks only.
measures on the mortgage sector is best exhibited when considering the
possible effect of accumulated measures in the past on this market, we
find that the general and concentration MaP measures affect credit dy-
interaction between them, on the domestic banks’ lending. Because Israel namics when we consider the accumulation of the MaP measures over a
is a small open economy, we complement the specification with mone- shorter period into account (Fig. 9).
tary policy surprises from the US,13 as described in Section 3.2, in order The interaction between MaP measures and monetary policy is
to allow us to test the effect of the interest rate differential between specified as the product of the MaP measures index of dummies and the
domestic and foreign financing on the growth of domestic credit. lagged one- and two-period monetary policy. Foreign monetary policy is
Our first objective is to assess the effect of domestic MaP poli- included in the estimations with one and two lags.
cies—including their interaction with monetary policy—on the housing For each of the credit types, we present four specifications. Column 1
credit (mortgage) market, which is one of the components of the do- of each of the tables includes the basic specification. Column 3 presents
mestic banks’ total lending activity. the specification including global monetary policy surprises, and Col-
The second component of bank credit is lending to the business sector umns 2 and 4 add the interaction terms between MaP measures and
(excluding the financial sector). We assess the effect of domestic MaP monetary policy to these specifications. In the specifications shown in
policies and of the interactions of these policies with monetary policy on Column 4 of Tables 3–6, we represent global monetary policy by
business sector lending. including monetary policy shocks in the US, as most of the foreign cur-
Nonhousing consumer credit is the third component of bank credit. rency credit is denominated in dollars. We present an alternative speci-
This credit is not backed by the borrower’s housing, and is usually used fication including eurozone monetary policy surprises in the Appendix.
for consumption, but may also serve—for the banks as credit suppliers, Our qualitative results remain robust to this alternative specification.
and for households as credit demanders—as a substitute for mortgages. In the following estimation results, the significance of the sum of the
As a final step, we assess the effect of monetary and MaP policies on total monetary policy lags coefficients and the interaction lags coefficients is
bank credit, which is comprised of the above three components. determined using the Wald test.
The general formulation of our estimation is
4.1. Housing credit estimation results
ΔCrediti;b;t ¼ αi þ β1i MaPt þ β2i MonPolt þ β3i MaPt MonPolt
þ β4i ForeignMonPolt þ β5i Macroi;t þ β6i BankChari;b;t þ εi;b;t Table 3 shows that MaP measures relating to the housing market
succeeded in reducing the growth rate of housing credit according to all
where t spans from 2004:Q2 to 2019:Q4, and b stands for the bank. specifications. General MaP measures contributed to reducing the growth
ΔCrediti;b;t is the log change of domestic bank credit of type i (housing, rate of housing credit, although the results were significant only in the
consumer, business, or total credit) by bank b in quarter t. MaPt are specifications excluding the interaction terms.
indices of MaP measures and MonPolt and ForeignMonPolt are the unex- We also find that MaP measures targeting the concentration of the
pected change in the Bank of Israel and foreign interest rates. The esti- banks’ activity increased housing credit growth (the results are signifi-
mated parameters α and β, macroeconomic control variables (Macroi,t), cant only in the full specification, Column 4). This demonstrates a sub-
and bank-specific control variables (BankChari,b,t) vary by type of credit i. stitution effect on business credit from the supply side of the banks,
We will elaborate on the specific variables and lags included in the es- increasing mortgage lending as a substitute for business lending, partic-
timations in the sections describing the results. εi;b;t are cross-section- ularly to large borrowers. We find that positive monetary policy surprises
weighted and allow for conditional cross-section correlation between (unexpected tightening) significantly decreased the growth rate of
the contemporaneous residuals but are restricted to be uncorrelated be- housing credit, but turned insignificant in the period after the financial
tween different periods. The estimation results are presented in crisis, starting in the third quarter of 2008 (Table 3). For some of the
Tables 3–6. specifications, the interaction between the general or concentration MaP
We choose to separately analyze the components of local bank cred- measures and monetary policy amplifies the substitution effect on
it—housing, business, and consumer credit—in order to study the effect mortgage credit.
of each of the three classes of MaP measures on each credit type. While As Israel is a small open economy, we look for the effect of global
measures targeting housing credit were meant to moderate its growth in interest rates, represented by US monetary policy. We find that higher
order to minimize the risk to the banking sector’s stability, they may have rates abroad tended to moderate local housing credit growth before the
induced the substitution of housing credit with other types of credit (such GFC, rather than increasing it, as would have been if local housing debt
and foreign debt were substitutes. Given that the Israeli mortgage market
is (almost) entirely a local market, the negative effect on the growth rate
13
In an alternative specification, we also include monetary policy surprises of local mortgages may indicate that US surprises are a proxy for ex-
from the eurozone. The qualitative results remain unchanged (see the pected domestic monetary policy, which slowed the growth rate of
Appendix). mortgages before the GFC. Another possible interpretation links the
9
Table 3
Housing Credit, Sample 2004:Q2 – 2019:Q4, 7 banks.
1 2 3 4
Basic – excl. interactions and Including Including global Including interactions and
global policy interactions policy global monetary policy
MaP Cumulative MaP_housing (-1), since 2004 0.001** 0.002** 0.002*** 0.002***
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.004* 0.002 0.005* 0.004
MaP_concentration (-1) to (4) 0.002 0.006 0.007* 0.010**
Monetary Policy Monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 1.89* 2.23** 1.34 2.08
Monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 4.56*** 4.53*** 2.67** 2.78**
Aggregated before 2008 ¡6.45*** ¡6.76*** ¡4.00** ¡4.86***
Monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 0.82 0.88 0.41 2.70
Aggregated after 2008 1.57* 1.43 ¡0.20 ¡2.99
Interactions Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-1) 0.14 0.24
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.22 0.15
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡0.36 0.09
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-1) 1.04 2.38
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 3.80 5.21*
MaP_concentr.(-1) to (4) Mon. policy (-1) 4.08 3.90
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy 7.18* 6.85*
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 1.89 1.27
US monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 3.00** 2.93**
US Aggregated before 2008 ¡4.88*** ¡4.20**
US monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 2.17 5.64*
US monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 0.78 2.04
US Aggregated after 2008 2.95 7.68
Banks^ Excess Tier(-1) 0.38*** 0.40*** 0.57*** 0.57***
Macro D (real wage (-2)) 0.12* 0.14** 0.18** 0.19**
D (unemployed 25–64 (-5)) 0.77*** 0.61** 0.71** 0.58*
D (log (house_prices (-1)) 0.07*** 0.06** 0.05* 0.05
Seasonal Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Data Break Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
C 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.003
CRISIS2008 0.01** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02***
Observations 441 441 441 441
Adjusted R2 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18
Notes: ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. ^The estimation also includes the change from liabilities to assets, the change in the
banks’ real assets, the change in deposits as a share of assets, the change in liquid assets, and the change from excess reserves to assets, with varying lags. All results were
insignificant.
higher foreign interest rate to the actual and expected local currency 4.2. Business credit estimation results
appreciation. Since house prices were generally denominated in US
dollars before the GFC, an appreciation would lead, at least in the short Although the banks’ share of total business credit declined in the past
term, to a moderation of the local currency value of house prices and, decade from about 75 percent to 50 percent (Fig. 5b), business credit is
therefore, of mortgages. still an important sector, accounting for about a 40 percent share of total
The macroeconomic indicators—real wages, unemployment, and bank credit.
house prices—all have the expected effect on the mortgage market. We find that general MaP measures tended to reduce the growth rate
Higher prices indicate excess demand in the market, but also increase the of business credit, as expected, although the results were significant only
nominal value of a given number of transactions, inducing higher de- in some of the specifications (Table 4). In addition, our results show that
mand for mortgages. MaP measures aimed at housing credit tended to increase the supply of
We also control for bank characteristics that may affect the banks’ credit to the business sector, as those are substitutes on the asset side of
tendency to offer credit. An increase in the banks’ capital relative to the the banks’ balance sheets.
supervisory requirements (lagged two periods), i.e., a positive gap, tends We do not find evidence that the concentration MaP measures, which
to increase the growth of housing credit. were implemented only once during our sample period, had any signif-
Fig. 10 presents the average annual contributions of the various fac- icant effect on business credit.14 Similar to our results for housing credit,
tors that affect the dynamics of housing credit. Housing MaP measures higher policy rates tended to reduce business credit growth before the
made a substantial downward contribution to the development of GFC, but this influence diminishes and we find that higher policy rates
housing credit after 2011. Foreign monetary policy had some impact on tend to increase business credit after the GFC, contrary to our basic
local housing credit in the years before the GFC, and did not contribute to intuition. We find that the interactions between monetary policy and the
credit dynamics in the years after the GFC. Macroeconomic variables and MaP measures under the full specification do not significantly affect
bank characteristics contributed to the housing credit increase after business credit.
2009. There is partial evidence that less accommodative foreign monetary
The post-GFC dummy reflects post-2008 factors, such as unconven- policy reduced the growth rate of domestic business credit after 2008.
tional monetary policies, that sustained the demand for housing credit.
Fig. 10 also shows that excess tier 1 capital increased housing credit.
14
We included one measure taken in September 2003, which is before the
sample period but, due to lags in the specification, is also relevant.
10
Table 4
Business Credit, Sample 2004:Q2—2019:Q4, 7 banks.
1 2 3 4
MaP Cumulative MaP_housing (-1), since 2004 0.001** 0.001** 0.001*** 0.001**
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.008*** 0.005* 0.007** 0.005
MaP_concentration (-4) to (7) 0.004 0.006 0.005 0.005
Monetary Policy Monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 0.12 0.44 1.29 0.53
Monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 2.75** 2.17* 3.71*** 3.00*
Aggregated before 2008 ¡2.63* ¡2.61 ¡2.42 ¡2.47
Monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 1.28** 0.22 2.97*** 2.36
Monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 3.32*** 3.80*** 3.46*** 6.74***
Aggregated after 2008 4.60*** 4.02*** 6.43*** 9.10***
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.43* 0.81**
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡0.20 ¡0.86
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-2) 3.57* 2.61
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 6.57* 4.86
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy ¡0.77 0.1
US monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 1.54 1.03
US Aggregated before 2008 ¡0.43 ¡0.39
US monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 4.43** 3.14
US Aggregated after 2008 ¡5.02 ¡8.54
Banks^ Excess Tier(-5) 0.40*** 0.29* 0.31* 0.36**
D (Liabilities (-1)/Assets (-1)) 0.73 1.06* 0.88 1.01*
Macro D (BusinessGDP (-2)) 0.22*** 0.20*** 0.21*** 0.21**
D (unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 1.55*** 1.77*** 1.74*** 1.63***
C 0.03** 0.02** 0.03*** 0.02***
CRISIS2008 0.02*** 0.01*** 0.01** 0.01***
Adjusted R2 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
insignificant.
This suggests that the signaling effect of a surprise in foreign interest market MaP measures, we find evidence for housing and consumer credit
rates, assuming one exists, is stronger than the possible substitution effect being substitutes. The interaction term of these measures with monetary
on foreign credit. Similar to our results for housing credit, macroeco- policy is negative, indicating, as for business credit, that when stricter
nomic indicators and bank-specific indicators have the expected effect on housing MaP measures accompany accommodative monetary policy,
the evolution of the business credit aggregates (Table 4). consumer (nonhousing) credit will tend to increase. On the other hand,
coupling a surprising interest rate hike with accumulated housing market
4.3. Consumer credit estimation results MaP measures intensifies the effect of monetary surprises on consumer
credit.
As stated above, consumer credit comprises a relatively small share of We find that until 2008 a positive surprise to the global interest rate
the banks’ total credit, and this share has been relatively constant during tended to decrease the growth rate of consumer credit. After 2008, this
the past two decades. Therefore, our ability to account for changes in effect is not significant. As for housing credit, interest rate surprises
consumer credit due to changes in policy or macroeconomic factors is abroad may be an indication of the expected local monetary policy and
limited. therefore affect the growth rate of consumer credit.
The share of variance explained in our estimation is close to zero.
Therefore, any conclusions referring to the drivers of consumer credit are 4.4. Total credit estimation results
limited. Our results are presented in Table 5 and show that we do not find
any significant effect of MaP measures on consumer credit. Less accom- The previous sections analyzed the effect of MaP measures and
modative monetary policy reduced the growth rate of consumer credit monetary policy on each component of bank credit: housing, business,
only before the GFC, similar to the effect found for business and housing and consumer credit. Although housing MaP measures are naturally
credit. targeted at the housing market, the policy aims to influence the macro-
The expected effect of MaP measures aimed at housing credit on economic conditions and financial stability.
consumer credit is ambiguous. MaP measures limiting housing credit or Therefore, it is important to examine the effect of these measures on
making it more expensive are expected to increase consumer credit due total bank credit. We repeat our estimation for aggregate bank credit,
to substitution effects on both the demand and supply sides. By contrast, which is the sum of the three components mentioned above. Table 6
if housing (mortgage) credit and consumer credit are complements, presents the detailed results.
limiting mortgages will also tend to reduce demand for consumer credit. We find that MaP measures targeted at specific credit sectors, which
Looking at the interaction between monetary policy and housing influence these sectors, do not effect the dynamics of total credit
11
Table 5
Consumer Credit, Sample 2004:Q2—2019:Q4, 7 banks.
1 2 3 4
MaP Cumulative MaP_housing (-1), since 2004 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.003 0.005 0.000 0.005
Monetary Policy Monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 0.52 1.60 8.17* 7.03
Monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 12.37*** 12.73*** 16.86*** 17.77***
Aggregated before 2008 ¡12.89** ¡14.33** ¡8.68 ¡10.74
Aggregated after 2008 0.47 2.30 ¡3.76 5.25
Interactions Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-1) 0.80 -.95
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 2.05** 2.38*
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡2.84** ¡3.33*
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 13.41 14.44
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy 26.94* 19.33
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 11.84*** 11.10**
US Aggregated after 2008 6.46 ¡4.92
Banks^ Excess Tier(-1) 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.05
D (Liabilities (-1)/Assets (-1)) 3.98** 4.29** 4.45** 4.49**
Macro D (real wage (-1)) 0.67*** 0.62** 1.00*** 0.87***
D (unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 0.94 0.37 1.87 1.22
C 0.03** 0.03* 0.02 0.02
CRISIS2008 0.005 0.003 0.007 0.004
Adjusted R2 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
insignificant.
according to our estimations. The effect of housing and general MaP general MaP measures. The effect of concentration MaP measures is also
measures on total credit is insignificant, and the accumulated effect of weaker due to their influence in opposite directions on credit
concentration-related measures is also null. As we found in the full components.
specification (Column 4) for some of the specific credit sectors, monetary We may conclude that the effect of MaP measures on total bank credit
policy affected credit growth only before the GFC. A negative sign on the was less evident than on each of the credit components due to the sub-
interaction between monetary policy and housing MaP measures in the stitution effects, probably originating from both the supply and demand
restricted specification (Column 2) indicates that accommodative mon- sides. Housing MaP measures were aimed specifically at the housing
etary policy tended to support total credit growth when coupled with market, and housing credit intended to minimize the risks to financial
restrictive housing MaP measures. stability due to distress in this sector did succeed according to our esti-
Fig. 11 shows that monetary policy is not central in explaining total mation in moderating housing credit growth.
bank credit dynamics. The interaction between monetary policy and Other MaP measures targeted at banks’ capital structure may have
nonhousing MaP measures decreased total credit growth between 2012 achieved their goal of minimizing financial risks by inducing changes in
and 2014. the banks’ balance sheets, while affecting credit growth only marginally.
The housing MaP measures made a significant contribution to
changes in housing and business credit. However, the substitution be- 5. Robustness checks
tween the types of credit offsets these effects, resulting in nearly no
contribution to changes in total credit. As Fig. 11 shows, this influence We perform several robustness checks in order to verify our results.15
was augmented by the interaction of housing MaP measures and mone- First, we check whether aggregating general and concentration measures
tary policy, contributing to total credit mainly through the effect of the into a single index of dummies matters and find that qualitative results
interaction on consumer credit. did not change. The substitution effect is still evident, as housing MaP
Table 7 presents the main qualitative effect of MaP policy on each of measures tend to restrict housing credit growth but contribute to busi-
the different credit components, based on the estimation including both ness credit growth and, on the whole, do not affect the evolution of total
the interaction terms and global monetary policy, presented in the fourth credit. The negative effect of housing MaP measures on consumer credit
column of each table. We find that the effect of the various MaP measures
on total credit is weaker than on some of its components due to the
substitution effect mentioned earlier. Total bank credit is not affected 15
We refer in this section to the results for the full specification (Column 4 of
significantly by the measures taken to curb housing credit or by the each table).
12
Table 6
Total Credit, Sample 2004:Q2—2019:Q4, 7 banks.
1 2 3 4
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.0002 0.002 0.0001 0.002
MaP_concentration (-1) to (4) 0.006** 0.008** 0.008** 0.010***
MaP_concentration (-4) to (7) 0.008*** 0.009*** 0.007*** 0.008***
Monetary Policy Monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 0.10 0.68 2.44** 1.67
Aggregated before 2008 ¡4.70*** ¡5.42*** ¡3.38** ¡4.34***
Monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 1.76*** 2.31*** 1.27* 2.44
Aggregated after 2008 2.35*** 2.48*** 2.32* 1.63
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.62*** 0.58**
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡0.74** ¡0.60
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-1) 2.69** 3.62**
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-2) 4.31*** 3.92**
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 6.99*** 7.54***
MaP_concentr.(-1) to (4) Mon. policy (-1) 7.83*** 6.27***
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy 7.66** 6.78**
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy ¡0.55 ¡0.43
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 3.17*** 2.47**
US Aggregated after 2008 ¡0.30 1.60
D (log (Real Assets (-1)) 0.08 0.08* 0.06 0.07
Macro YoY(Real Wage (-2)) 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.04
D (Unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 1.15*** 1.01*** 1.42*** 1.26***
YoY(House Prices (-1)) 0.01 0.001 0.002 0.01
C 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003
CRISIS2008 0.007 0.009* 0.007 0.01*
Adjusted R2 0.28 0.32 0.29 0.32
insignificant.
Fig. 9. Cumulative MaP measures.

Notes: MaP dummy variables were used in the estimations. Source: Bank of Israel
Research Department.
Fig. 10. Housing credit decomposition.

Notes: Housing credit is expressed in log difference (dlog). “Other” includes the
intercept, bank fixed effects, dummies to control for seasonality, data break
dummies, and other financial ratios. ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%,
5%, and 10% level, respectively. Source: Estimation, Table 3, Column 4.
13
is significant in this alternative specification, representing possible

complementarity between housing credit and consumer credit.
However, some of the effects of MaP and monetary policy surprises
and their interactions were less significant for the housing and total
credit estimations than for the business and consumer credit estimations.
This result is expected since the effects in the benchmark specification of
the general and concentration MaP measures are in opposite directions in
the housing and total credit estimations. However, they are the same in
the business and consumer credit estimations, although both insignifi-
cant. Table 8 presents the robustness checks aggregating both types of
nonhousing MaP measures, including interactions and global monetary
policy.
In an additional robustness check, we omit from the estimation the
insignificant MaP measures and find that our qualitative results do not
change. We also experiment with competing models by including each of
the MaP measures—housing, general, and concentration—as a cumula-
Fig. 11. Total credit decomposition. tive index, compared to accumulating the general and concentration
Notes: Total credit is expressed in log difference (dlog). “Other” includes the measures only over a fixed number of past periods in the benchmark
intercept, bank fixed effects, seasonal dummies, data break dummies, and other
specification. In this specification, the housing and business credit
financial ratios. ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% level,
growth rates are not (significantly) affected by MaP measures or their
respectively. Source: Estimations, Table 6, Column 4.
interaction with monetary policy, except for the interaction of monetary
policy with the housing MaP measures in the business credit sector,
Table 7
which becomes significantly negative.
Summary of MaP policy qualitative effect – baseline estimation.
According to this specification, the interaction between accommo-
Housing Business Consumer Total dative monetary policy and housing MaP measures tends to increase
Housing MaP –*** þ** – þ business credit. In other words, supply-side substitution effects lead
General MaP – – þ þ banks to increase the supply of business credit more when housing
Concentration MaP þ** – þ þ***/–***
market MaP measures are accompanied by accommodative monetary
Housing MaP MP þ – –* –
General MaP MP þ* þ þ þ*** policy. For consumer credit, we find that housing MaP measures become
Concentration MaP MP þ þ þ þ**/– significantly positive and increase consumer growth. By contrast, general
MaP measures accumulated from the beginning of the estimated period
Notes: ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively.
MP stands for monetary policy. Concentration MaP appears with 1–4 lags (þ) and
become significantly negative and tend to reduce it. Interactions do not
4 to 7 lags () according to the specification for housing, business, and consumer significantly affect consumer credit growth in this specification.
credit. We refer to the estimation including the interaction term and the effect of The last robustness check includes the relative surprise to the interest
US monetary policy, shown in Tables 4–6, Column 4. rate (surprise divided by the level of the interest rate) in order to take into
account the absolute level of the interest rate relative to the size of the
Table 8
Robustness Checks, Sample 2004:Q2–2019:Q4, 7 banks.
1 2 3 4
Housing credit Business credit Consumer credit Total credit
MaP Cumulative MaP_housing (-1), since 2004 0.0013** 0.001*** 0.003* 0.00
MaP_non_housing (1) to (8) 0.002 0.004** 0.01 0.00
Monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 3.96*** 3.22** 20.25*** 5.91***
Aggregated before 2008 ¡6.04*** ¡3.15 ¡15.37** ¡5.11***
Monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 0.59 8.56*** 2.48 3.71**
Aggregated after 2008 0.01 10.83*** 2.91 4.29*
Interactions Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-1) 0.24 0.03 1.43 0.04
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.09 0.91** 2.28* 0.63**
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy 0.15 ¡0.88 ¡3.71** ¡0.68
MaP_non_housing (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-1) 0.45 1.86 11.07* 1.91
MaP_non_housing (1) to (8) Mon. policy (-2) 1.75 0.45 12.03** 2.24*
Aggregated MaP_non_housing £ Mon. policy 2.20 2.31 23.11*** 4.16**
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 1.06 1.26 10.00** 2.28**
US monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 2.09* 1.25 7.06 1.18
US Aggregated before 2008 ¡3.15* 0.00 ¡2.94 ¡1.10
US monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 2.04 2.94 2.12 0.41
US monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 0.11 8.07** 0.82 2.34
US Aggregated after 2008 1.93 ¡11.01** ¡2.94 ¡2.74
Banks^ Excess Tier(-1) 0.52*** 0.14 0.31***
Excess Tier(-5) 0.36**
Macro D (real wage (-1)) 1.04***
D (real wage (-2)) 0.19** 0.05
D (unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 1.56*** 0.97 1.11***
D (unemployed 25–64 (-5)) 0.72**
(continued on next page)
14
Table 8 (continued )
1 2 3 4
Housing credit Business credit Consumer credit Total credit
D (BusinessGDP (-2)) 0.17**

D (log (house_prices (-1)) 0.09*** 0.00
C 0.001 0.02*** 0.01 0.003
CRISIS2008 0.014** 0.01** 0.01 0.01*
Adjusted R2 0.17 0.31 0.07 0.28
insignificant.
surprise. The results remain qualitatively unchanged,16 although the not persist after the crisis, at least according to our estimation. We find
interaction terms with MaP policy become insignificant. some evidence for the effect of monetary policy when it interacts with
MaP measures that were taken after 2008. As the share of foreign cur-
6. Concluding remarks rency credit is very small, the effect of monetary policy in the US is in the
same direction as that of domestic monetary policy, indicating that it may
This paper analyzes the effect of monetary and MaP policies on bank be a signal for possible future local policy rather than a substitute.
credit. We present the results of an analysis of the effect of domestic We find that the interaction between monetary policy and MaP policy
monetary policy and MaP policy implemented in Israel during the period is important. We show that accommodative monetary policy tended to
2004–19 on domestic bank credit. We estimate the effect of monetary increase consumer credit and total credit in some specifications, when
policy, MaP measures, and the interaction between them on housing interacting with macroprudential policies targeting the housing market.
credit, consumer credit, credit to the business sector, and total credit. We also find that macroeconomic conditions, i.e., output growth and
We find that the MaP policy affected the development of bank credit. employment growth, are associated with credit growth rates, and that
Our results show that MaP measures targeted at housing credit did bank-specific characteristics, particularly the bank’s capital relative to
reduce the growth rate of this credit while contributing to the increased the supervisory requirements, affect the supply of credit.
growth of business credit. General MaP measures worked to reduce the
growth rate of business credit. We could not find a clear effect of the
single measure targeted at the lending concentration on any of the credit Declaration of competing interest
components.
Monetary policy was found to have a clear and significant effect on On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is
housing and total credit growth rates before the GFC, but this effect did no conflict of interest.
Appendix. Estimation Including ECB Monetary Policy Surprises
Table 3a
Housing Credit, Sample 2004:Q2 – 2019:Q4, 7 Banks, Including ECB Monetary Policy
1 2 3 4
MaP Cumulative MaP_housing (-1), since 2004 0.001** 0.002** 0.002*** 0.002***
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.004* 0.002 0.004* 0.003
MaP_concentration (-1) to (4) 0.002 0.006 0.005 0.01**
Monetary Policy Monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 1.89* 2.23** 0.81 0.86
Monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 4.56*** 4.53*** 3.13** 3.61***
Aggregated before 2008 ¡6.45*** ¡6.76*** ¡3.94** ¡4.46**
Aggregated after 2008 1.57* 1.43 0.05 ¡2.67
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.22 0.24
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡0.36 0.05
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-1) 1.04 3.22*
16
In this specification, there is no evidence for the substitution effect of
housing MaP measures between housing credit growth and business credit
growth.
15
Table 3a (continued )
1 2 3 4
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 3.80 5.65*

MaP_concentr.(-1) to (4) Mon. policy (-2) 3.09 5.07*
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy 7.18* 7.66*
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 2.58** 2.53*
US monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 2.44* 2.08
US Aggregated before 2008 ¡5.02*** ¡4.61**
ECB monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 24.93** 32.51**
ECB monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 15.00 15.14
ECB Aggregated before 2008 9.93 17.37
ECB monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 2.96 2.22
ECB monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 1.02 –0.94
ECB Aggregated after 2008 1.94 1.27
Macro D (real wage (-2)) 0.12* 0.14** 0.18** 0.16*
D (unemployed 25–64 (-5)) 0.77*** 0.61** 0.64** 0.57*
D (log (house_prices (-1)) 0.07*** 0.06** 0.05** 0.05*
C 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.001
CRISIS2008 0.01** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02***
Adjusted R2 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.20
Notes: *p-value < 10%, **p-value < 5%, ***p-value < 1%. ^ The estimation also includes the change from liabilities to assets, the change in the banks’ real assets, the
change in deposits as a share of assets, the change in liquid assets, and the change from excess reserves to assets, with varying lags. All results were insignificant.
Table 4a
Business Credit, Sample 2004:Q2 – 2019:Q4, 7 Banks, Including ECB Monetary Policy
1 2 3 4
MaP Cumulative MaP_housing (-1), since 2004 0.001** 0.001** 0.001** 0.001**
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.008*** 0.005* 0.006** 0.005
Monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 2.75** 2.17* 3.93*** 2.69
Aggregated before 2008 ¡2.63* ¡2.61 ¡3.48* ¡3.50*
Monetary policy (-1) after the GFC 1.28** 0.22 3.00*** 2.68
Monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 3.32*** 3.80*** 3.45*** 6.33**
Aggregated after 2008 4.60*** 4.02*** 6.44*** 9.01**
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.43* 0.80**
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡0.20 ¡0.83
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-2) 3.57* 3.26
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 6.57* 5.01
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy ¡0.77 ¡1.81
US Aggregated before 2008 0.33 0.34
US Aggregated after 2008 ¡2.35 ¡5.68
ECB Aggregated before 2008 ¡34.31* ¡39.70*
ECB Aggregated after 2008 ¡2.78 ¡2.90
Banks^ Excess Tier(-5) 0.40*** 0.29* 0.33** 0.39**
16
Table 4a (continued )
1 2 3 4
D (Liabilities (-1)/Assets (-1)) 0.73 1.06* 1.02* 1.21**

Macro D (BusinessGDP (-2)) 0.22*** 0.20*** 0.17* 0.17*
D (unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 1.55*** 1.77*** 1.79*** 1.66***
C 0.03** 0.02** 0.03*** 0.02***
CRISIS2008 0.02*** 0.01*** 0.01*** 0.02***
Adjusted R2 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Table 5a
Consumer Credit, Sample 2004:Q2 – 2019:Q4, 7 Banks, Including ECB Monetary Policy
1 2 3 4
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.003 0.005 0.001 0.005
Aggregated before 2008 ¡12.89** ¡14.33** ¡12.71* ¡13.82**
Aggregated after 2008 0.47 2.30 0.12 13. 81
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 2.05** 2.91**
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡2.84** ¡3.79**
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 13.41 9.83
MaP_concentr.(-1) to (4) Mon. policy (-2) 19.06 21.73*
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy 26.94* 21.95
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 10.65** 11.07**
US monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 9.45** 10.05**
US monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 14.05* 6.68
US Aggregated after 2008 16.69 ¡3.13
ECB monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 114.43** 114.87**
ECB Aggregated before 2008 ¡105.04 ¡61.91
Banks^ Excess Tier(-1) 0.15 0.05 0.38 0.24
D (Liabilities (-1)/Assets (-1)) 3.96** 4.29** 5.29*** 5.09***
Macro D (real wage (-1)) 0.66*** 0.63** 1.13*** 0.99***
D (unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 0.93 0.31 1.06 0.19
C 0.03** 0.03* 0.020 0.03*
CRISIS2008 0.01 0.003 0.01 0.000
Adjusted R2 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06
17
Table 6a
Total Credit, Sample 2004:Q2 – 2019:Q4, 7 Banks, Including ECB Monetary Policy
1 2 3 4
MaP_general (-1) to (8) 0.0002 0.002 0.0004 0.002
MaP_concentration (-1) to (4) 0.006** 0.008** 0.008** 0.009**
MaP_concentration (-4) to (7) 0.008*** 0.009*** 0.007*** 0.007***
Monetary Policy Monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 0.10 0.68 1.66** 1.17
Aggregated before 2008 ¡4.70*** ¡5.42*** ¡4.54*** ¡5.36***
Monetary policy (-2) after the GFC 1.76*** 2.31*** 1.40* 3.19*
Aggregated after 2008 2.35*** 2.48*** 2.62* 3.32
Cumulative MaP_housing (-1) Mon. policy (-2) 0.62*** 0.72**
Aggregated MaP_housing £ Mon. policy ¡0.74** ¡0.79*
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-1) 2.69** 2.82*
MaP_general (-1) to (8) Mon. policy (-2) 4.31*** 4.01***
Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 6.99*** 6.83***
MaP_concentr.(-1) to (4) Mon. policy (-1) 7.83*** 6.25***
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy 7.66** 6.29**
Aggregated MaP_concentr. £ Mon. policy ¡0.55 0.20
Foreign US monetary policy (-1) until the GFC 2.44** 1.96*
US monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 2.04* 2.03*
US Aggregated before 2008 ¡0.41 0.07
ECB monetary policy (-2) until the GFC 21.86** 28.59***
ECB Aggregated before 2008 ¡29.66** ¡2746*
Banks^ Excess Tier(-1) 0.27*** 0.32*** 0.26** 0.29**
D (log (Real Assets (-1)) 0.08 0.08* 0.08 0.09*
Macro YoY(Real Wage (-2)) 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.02
D (Unemployed 25–64 (-2)) 1.15*** 1.01*** 1.31*** 0.95***
YoY(House Prices (-1)) 0.01 0.001 0.007 0.007
C 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.001
CRISIS2008 0.007 0.009* 0.007 0.01*
Adjusted R2 0.28 0.32 0.29 0.32
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19

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Economic Modelling 112 (2022) 105872

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

The interaction between domestic monetary policy and macroprudential

2. Economic and policy background

2.1. Macroeconomic background

Since the beginning of the new millennium, particularly after 2003

Fig. 4. Banks’ share of business and consumer credit.

2.3. Banking sector

only 15 percent of mortgage borrowers were affected by this move. The

3.2. Capital adequacy

Capital adequacy measures the amount of capital available to a bank

Fig. 7. Market- and expert-based monetary policy surprises.

Fig. 9. Cumulative MaP measures.

Fig. 10. Housing credit decomposition.

is signiﬁcant in this alternative speciﬁcation, representing possible

Housing credit Business credit Consumer credit Total credit

Housing credit Business credit Consumer credit Total credit

D (BusinessGDP (-2)) 0.17**

Appendix. Estimation Including ECB Monetary Policy Surprises

Aggregated MaP_general £ Mon. policy 3.80 5.65*

D (Liabilities (-1)/Assets (-1)) 0.73 1.06* 1.02* 1.21**

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