The Role of DAC in EU Decarbonization & Associated Carbon Intensity For The Synthetic Fuel Production (2023)
The Role of DAC in EU Decarbonization & Associated Carbon Intensity For The Synthetic Fuel Production (2023)
The Role of DAC in EU Decarbonization & Associated Carbon Intensity For The Synthetic Fuel Production (2023)
Review
The Role of Direct Air Capture in EU’s Decarbonisation and
Associated Carbon Intensity for Synthetic Fuels Production
Rocio Gonzalez Sanchez, Anatoli Chatzipanagi * , Georgia Kakoulaki, Marco Buffi and Sandor Szabo
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy
* Correspondence: [email protected]
Abstract: Direct air capture (DAC) is considered one of the mitigation strategies in most of the
future scenarios trying to limit global temperature to 1.5 ◦ C. Given the high expectations placed
on DAC for future decarbonisation, this study presents an extensive review of DAC technologies,
exploring a number of techno-economic aspects, including an updated collection of the current and
planned DAC projects around the world. A dedicated analysis focused on the production of synthetic
methane, methanol, and diesel from DAC and electrolytic hydrogen in the European Union (EU) is
also performed, where the carbon footprint is analysed for different scenarios and energy sources.
The results show that the maximum grid carbon intensity to obtain negative emissions with DAC
is estimated at 468 gCO2 e/kWh, which is compliant with most of the EU countries’ current grid
mix. Using only photovoltaics (PV) and wind, negative emissions of at least −0.81 tCO2 e/tCO2
captured can be achieved. The maximum grid intensities allowing a reduction of the synthetic fuels
carbon footprint compared with their fossil-fuels counterparts range between 96 and 151 gCO2 e/kWh.
However, to comply with the Renewable Energy Directive II (REDII) sustainability criteria to produce
renewable fuels of non-biological origin, the maximum stays between 30.2 to 38.8 gCO2 e/kWh.
Only when using PV and wind is the EU average able to comply with the REDII threshold for all
scenarios and fuels, with fuel emissions ranging from 19.3 to 25.8 gCO2 e/MJ. These results highlight
the importance of using renewable energies for the production of synthetic fuels compliant with the
EU regulations that can help reduce emissions from difficult-to-decarbonise sectors.
Citation: Gonzalez Sanchez, R.;
Chatzipanagi, A.; Kakoulaki, G.;
Keywords: direct air capture; decarbonisation; synthetic fuels; carbon footprint; renewable energy;
Buffi, M.; Szabo, S. The Role of Direct
hydrogen
Air Capture in EU’s Decarbonisation
and Associated Carbon Intensity for
Synthetic Fuels Production. Energies
2023, 16, 3881. https://doi.org/
10.3390/en16093881 1. Introduction
and 85 Mt CO2 /year by 2030 [6]. The net zero scenarios in the Special Report on Global
Warming of 1.5 ◦ C (IPCC SR1.5) increase the amount of CO2 captured and stored using
BECCS and DACCS to up to 3.5–16 Gt in 2050 [5]. These numbers evince the need for large-
scale demonstration plants to reduce costs and reach technological maturity. In fact, the
IEA’s NZE indicates that almost half of the CO2 emission reductions in 2050 are expected to
come from technologies currently at the demonstration or prototype phase. This means that
an important innovation effort needs to take place to bring these technologies to market on
time [5].
In the European Union, the total GHG emissions in 2021 were 3.78 GtCO2 e, 14% lower
than 2010 levels [7]. Europe is aiming to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent
by 2050, with the announcement of the EU Green Deal in 2019 [8]. The EU Green Deal has
climate action at its core, including ambitious measures not only to reach net zero emissions
by 2050 but also to invest in cutting-edge research and innovation while preserving the
natural environment. To put Europe on track to reach climate neutrality by 2050, the EU
launched the 2030 Climate Target Plan, proposing to raise the 2030 emissions target from
the previous 40% to at least 55% compared with 1990 levels [9]. To implement this increased
ambition, the “Fit for 55” legislative package was announced in July 2021 [10]. The latest
REPowerEU plan [10], adopted due to the current geopolitical risks and energy market
disruptions, accelerates the process of the green transition [11]. Policy support is considered
one of the most critical factors for the future development and scaling up of NETs tech-
nologies. In December 2021, the European Commission launched the Sustainable Carbon
Cycles Communication with the objective of putting in place a regulatory framework for
certification of carbon removals, which started in late 2022 [12]. One of the aspirational
objectives of this action is to remove and permanently store through industrial technologies
5 MtCO2 /year from the atmosphere by 2030. This framework aims to standardise the
monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) methodologies for carbon accounting to
provide high-quality carbon removals. NETs, including DAC, are part of the technologies
included in the future certification, which will help to enable the growth of these technolo-
gies. The Innovation Fund, funded by the EU ETS and planning to provide approximately
EUR 38 billion from 2020 to 2030, is another mechanism that was put in place by the EU
in 2020 to help the achievement of the net zero emissions target [13]. It is the world’s
largest funding programme for the deployment of innovative low-carbon technologies
at scale, including NETs and DAC, and it comprises net carbon removals as part of the
award criteria. In November 2021, the EU-Catalyst partnership was also launched by the
European Commission, the European Investment Bank, and Breakthrough Energy Catalyst
aiming to mobilise approximately EUR 820 million between 2022 and 2026 to accelerate the
deployment and commercialisation of innovative low carbon technologies in Europe, with
DAC being one of the three technologies eligible for funding [14]. Including CDRs in the
EU ETS could also provide suitable incentives for the development of DAC and further
accelerate its growth [15].
Since the release of the long-term strategy “A Clean Planet for All” in 2018, carbon
removals have been present in EU climate modelling scenarios that aim to reach net zero
emissions by 2050. Two of these long-term scenarios (LTS) reach carbon neutrality by 2050,
one relying more on negative emissions technologies (1.5TECH), while the other relies less
on these technologies and focuses more on changes in business and consumption patterns
towards a circular economy [16]. In these two scenarios, the total amount of CO2 captured
and stored/used in 2050 to reach net zero is estimated at approximately 600 MtCO2 e.
The two NETs considered in the model are BECCS and DAC, with the main purpose of
compensating for unabated emissions, especially in non-CO2 emitting sectors [17]. The
projections allocate 210 MtCO2 e and 123 MtCO2 e to DAC in the 1.5TECH and 1.5LIFE
scenarios in 2050, respectively [16]. Similarly, the latest scenarios released by the European
Commission as part of the “Fit for 55” package also include BECCS and DAC, with a total
of 547 MtCO2 captured and stored/used (synthetic fuels and materials) in 2050 in the MIX
scenario. In this scenario, 152 MtCO2 e of carbon removals are allocated to DAC [10].
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 3 of 28
Globally, DAC needs to move to the gigatonne scale removals by 2050 and reach the
megatonne scale by 2030 in order not to miss the 2050 target [18]. An important factor to
consider when evaluating the role of DAC in mitigation scenarios and the comparison with
other negative emissions technologies is the ability to scale up at the required levels. This
is especially critical for sorbent production (including potential chemical pollutants and
extra energy needs to produce the sorbents) and for electricity and heat supply. If future
DAC deployments fail to meet the targets assumed in terms of deployment at scale, this
could lead to a global temperature overshoot of up to 0.8 ◦ C [19].
This study has two main objectives reflected in the different sections. The first one (cov-
ering Sections 2 and 6) is to provide an updated and extensive review of DAC technologies
and the current state of the art, including operational and planned facilities. Furthermore,
the most important technological aspects and challenges of DAC (energy demand, sorbents,
carbon footprint, etc.), and economic aspects are also discussed. The second is focused
on synthetic fuels production from CO2 captured through DAC. A literature review of
synthetic fuels is provided in Section 3. Sections 4 and 5 include a carbon footprint analysis
of DAC and synthetic fuels production using electrolytic hydrogen in the EU. The analysis
is performed at the country level, considering different future scenarios in the EU (“EU
Reference Scenario 2020” and “Fit for 55”) and different combinations of energy sources
(grid, PV, and wind).
operational flexibility of the system across a wide range of capacity factors and concludes
that energy consumption and net GHG emissions could be lower than the average range of
carbon dioxide removal technologies. In Europe, a study shows that up to 500 MtCO2 /year
could be captured using only excess renewable energy [42]. A recent survey conducted
amongst 18 experts on NETs and DAC drew a number of conclusions and insights [43]. Low
consensus is observed regarding the best DAC technology in the market at the present time.
The experts also reported a lack of reliable information regarding the actual cost of DAC.
Despite the fact that projections show a significant decrease over time (from estimated
current levels of 500–600 USD/tCO2 ), costs will continue to remain high (approximately
200 USD/tCO2 in 2050). The two most important limitations to future DAC growth are
energy use and policy support, while the development of new sorbents, process designs,
and energy sources are highlighted as key aspects to reduce the future costs.
chemical bond, the solvent regeneration is more complex, requiring higher temperatures
(~900 ◦ C) than the ones used for solid sorbents. In this case, as opposed to solid sorbents,
water is needed throughout the process, as it evaporates in the CO2 contactor. Dry and
hot conditions that increase the water losses as well as low temperatures that increase the
viscosity of the solvent are less preferable for this type of process [44].
Based in Canada, Carbon Engineering has been developing liquid absorption tech-
nology since 2009 [48]. Three plant configurations with variations in the power system,
oxygen supply, and CO2 compression are being designed for different markets [29]. The
baseline configuration is designed for combination with permanent storage (delivering CO2
at specifications appropriate for pipelines), and it is fully powered by natural gas to reach
to the high temperatures needed. The CO2 emissions from the natural gas are captured
by the plant and mixed with the CO2 from the air. A second variation also considers the
use of electricity to cover part of the energy needs and would be suitable for locations
with low-carbon energies at low cost. Finally, the third variation is optimized to provide
CO2 for synthetic fuels production. In this case, the DAC plant is assumed to be coupled
with an electrolyser to produce hydrogen that would also provide the oxygen needed for
the capture process [29]. One of the advantages of liquid absorption DAC technology is
the possibility of using the already existing industrial equipment of different sectors, thus
facilitating the deployment at scale. For instance, the air contactor is based on industrial
cooling towers, the pellet reactor has been used in the water treatment industry, the slaker
in the pulp and paper industry, and the calciner in the cement and metals industries [18].
Details on the main projects from Carbon Engineering can be found in Table S9 of the
Supplementary Material.
There are advantages and disadvantages in both solid and liquid DAC systems. Solid-
based systems require low operating costs and low energy input, as the desorption tem-
perature is lower (therefore, they can be powered by geothermal energy, waste heat, or
renewables through heat pumps). They also present greater modularity than liquid DAC
since the contactor configuration is segmented, allowing individual unit regeneration and
facilitating the scaling-up process [49]. However, these systems do not operate on a continu-
ous basis, and the collectors need to be sealed from the ambient air during the regeneration
process when temperature, pressure, and humidity are controlled. In addition, solid-based
systems require developing sorbents with high performance, low cost, and long economic
life in impure ambient air [29]. Liquid-based systems can be operated continuously, can use
inexpensive cooling-tower hardware and, as the liquid surface is continuously renewed,
it allows very long contactor lifetimes despite dust and atmospheric contaminants [29].
The highly integrated nature of the system reduces modularity, reaching an economic
optimum at approximately 1 MtCO2 /year. However, some of the large process equipment
(e.g., calciner and slaker) provides benefits in terms of economies of scale, providing an
advantage for large-scale operations [49]. On the other hand, the regeneration system is
complex, expensive, requires higher temperatures (currently using natural gas), and water
is needed to replace the water loss during the process in dry environments [29].
of the whole system, concluding that solar-to-fuel efficiencies up to 10.2% can be reached
compared with the 8.8% efficiency when no synergies are implemented [72].
3.2. EU Legislation
Hydrogen is considered one of the main pillars of Europe’s decarbonisation strategy
for the near future, offering an alternative solution for transport, industrial applications,
or synthetic fuel production. However, without reliable systems and infrastructures ded-
icated to hydrogen generation, new initiatives towards fuels production are still limited.
According to the European Green Deal [8], hydrogen is considered today one of the main
energy vectors towards EU carbon neutrality by 2050; however, some techno-economic,
sustainability, and legislative barriers do still exist. In an effort to close this gap, the Euro-
pean Commission promoted the sector development with the communication “A hydrogen
strategy for a climate-neutral Europe” [73], which recently updated its targets to more
ambitious achievements through the RePowerEU plan by setting the objective to produce
10 Mt of domestic hydrogen and import another 10 Mt by 2030 [11]. To attain this goal,
the Commission announced the creation of a new European Hydrogen Bank to guarantee
the future purchase of hydrogen and create a market by investing EUR 3 billion [74]. The
prospective role of hydrogen is also recognised in the Member States’ Recovery and Re-
silience Plans, with a central role in the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) [75]. The
first Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI) has also been approved by
the Commission in July for EUR 5.4 billion of investments, and it involves 15 Member
States [76]. In addition, the “Next Generation EU” recovery fund [77] (to support the mem-
ber states after the Covid crisis) is stimulating the development of new clean technologies,
including hydrogen, to boost its market uptake.
The Renewable Energy Directive recast (EU 2018/2001) or REDII [60] sets the frame-
work towards targets and sustainability criteria for alternative renewable transport fuels,
including Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBOs), that can be produced using
additional renewable energy production. Otherwise, if grid electricity is used, a reliable
methodology (recently published in two delegated acts integrating the RED II [78,79]) has
been proposed to properly assess the real carbon footprint of such fuels. RFNBOs are
defined by the European Commission as “liquid and gaseous fuels the energy content of
which is derived from renewable sources other than biomass”, and according to the new
proposal for the revision of RED II released in July 2021, they can be counted towards
Member States’ targets of renewable energy only if the GHG emissions savings from their
use are at least 70% compared with a fossil fuel comparator (FFC) set at 94 gCO2 e/MJ [10].
The proposal for the revision of RED II includes the renewable energy additionality criteria
as well as the GHG methodology to assess emissions from RFNBOs. This revision also
replaces the 14% target of renewable energy in transport (as set by RED II) to a 13% GHG
intensity reduction target by 2030. It also includes sub-targets, such as a 2.6% share (on an
energy basis) of RFNBOs in the transport sector and a 50% share of RFNBOs in hydrogen
consumption in industry by 2030. Moreover, the revision excludes the use of multipliers,
thus resulting in a real target that guarantees equal volumes of renewable fuels replacing
fossil fuels. The only multiplier maintained is based on a figure of 1.2× for advanced biofu-
els and RFNBOs in aviation and maritime sectors. Finally, RFNBOs can also contribute to
the targets imposed by ReFuel EU and FuelEU Maritime [80,81], which set a target of 63%
of SAFs in the commercial jet blend and 75% GHGs emissions reduction intensity by 2050.
Figure 1.
Figure 1. Synthetic
Synthetic fuels
fuels production
production pathways
pathways considered
considered in
in this
this study.
study.
4.
4. Data
Data and
and Methodology
Methodology
LCA
LCA data from
data from solid
solid DAC
DAC plants
plants (Climeworks)
(Climeworks) are are used
used inin the
the calculations
calculations of of the
the
carbon footprint and the production of the three synthetic fuels [30]. LCA data
carbon footprint and the production of the three synthetic fuels [30]. LCA data from liquid from liquid
DAC
DAC are
arenot
notconsidered
consideredininthis
thisstudy
studysince
sincecurrent configurations
current configurations always consider
always considera certain
a cer-
input of natural gas for heat [29], while the focus of this analysis is to evaluate
tain input of natural gas for heat [29], while the focus of this analysis is to evaluate the the different
options
differenttooptions
powertoDAC powerusing
DAC only electricity.
using The production
only electricity. of three
The production of fuels
three (methane,
fuels (me-
methanol, and diesel), using CO 2 from DAC and hydrogen via electrolysis,
thane, methanol, and diesel), using CO2 from DAC and hydrogen via electrolysis, is evaluated
is eval-
according to the reactions
uated according below:below:
to the reactions
Methane production
Methane through
production methanation
through reaction:
methanation CO
reaction: 2 2++ 4H
CO =>CH
4H22 => CH
4 + + 2H
4 2H2O 2 O
Methanol
Methanol production
production from from H2 and
H2 and CO2CO 2 synthesis:
synthesis: CO CO
2 2++ 3H
3H22 =>
=>CH3OH
CH + H+2O
3 OH H2 O
Diesel production from methanol as direct dimethyl ether (DME) synthesis [84]:
Diesel production from methanol as direct dimethyl ether (DME) synthesis [84]:
2CH3OH => CH3-O-CH3 + H2O
2CH3 OH => CH3 -O-CH3 + H2 O
Olefin synthesis: CH3-O-CH3 => (CH2)2 + 2H2O
Olefin synthesis: CH3 -O-CH3 => (CH2 )2 + 2H2 O
Oligomerization: 0.5 n (CH2)2 => CnH2n
are considered for the current and future electricity generation and grid carbon footprint
at the EU country level [10,85]. The REF2020 scenario builds on EU and Member State
policies concerning energy, transport, and climate adopted as of the end of 2019, including
some EU policies considered adopted at the end of 2019, although not published until
2020 [85]. The FF55 scenario is based on the “Fit for 55” package that aims to reduce
net GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990. More specifically, the
MIX scenario is defined to do this by relying on a carbon price signal extension to road
transport and buildings and a strong intensification of energy and transport policies [10].
The year 2020 is considered to be the current status and the common starting point for
both scenarios. The FF55 scenario provides projections until 2030; therefore, only the 2030
values are presented for this scenario. Instead, REF2020 provides projections until 2050;
therefore, the values for 2030 and 2050 are also presented for this scenario. It is assumed
that the synthetic fuels are produced in Europe near the fuel markets; therefore, transport
of synthetic fuels into Europe is not evaluated in this study. The carbon footprints of the
fossil equivalents for the three synthetic fuels analysed are also shown in the results for
comparison. The REDII threshold is also included, which represents 70% GHG emissions
reduction compared with the FFC.
Table 1 summarises the data with the sources used in the analysis.
Table 1. Cont.
For the cases in which PV and wind electricity are assumed as the energy sources
(either to power DAC or to produce hydrogen), a combined weighted average carbon
footprint is calculated, considering the share of PV and wind in the energy mix and the PV
and wind carbon footprint data obtained from the literature [86,87].
Figure 2 presents the share of PV and wind in the energy mix, the combined carbon
footprint, and the grid carbon footprint for the REF2020 and FF55 MIX scenarios. As it can
be observed, the grid carbon footprint (represented by the size of the circles) decreases in
2030 (for both scenarios) and 2050 compared with REF2020 for most of the countries. The
combined PV&Wind share in the grid mix is expected to increase in the future in all the
member states; however, the carbon footprint of the combined PV&Wind mix (shown on
the x-axis) will change on the basis of the share of these two sources. The countries with
more wind energy installed will benefit from a lower PV&Wind combined carbon footprint
since the carbon footprint of wind energy is lower than PV in all countries, according to the
literature sources used [86,87].
To calculate the CO2 emissions from the methanol-to-diesel conversion pathway,
the calculation scheme proposed in RESD1 from JECv5 has been considered [84]. The
model assumes a downstream process to methanol production, considering methanol and
hydrogen as feedstock, reacting together in a series of transformations towards paraffins
production (in the range of diesel fuels). The formulae used is reported here as follows:
Diesel emissions [gCO2 e/MJ] = Methanol emissions × 1.113 + Hydrogen emissions × 0.0245
where the corrective factors consider the stoichiometric ratios of the multiple reactions
that occurred, reaction efficiency, and reactor geometry. Further details of the reaction
schemes and the technology deployed have been recently reported in the literature [91].
Finally, the system boundaries are based on a cradle-to-gate approach; hence, the carbon
intensity of the selected fuel is calculated up to the plant outlet and evaluated in grams of
CO2 equivalent per MJ of fuel.
Energies 2023,
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Figure
Figure 2. PV&Wind share
2. PV&Wind share in
in the
the grid
grid mix
mix and
and its
its combined
combined carbon
carbon footprint
footprint for
for the
the EU
EU member
member
states
states in 2020 (present), 2030 REF2020, 2050 REF2020, and 2030 FF55. The circles’ sizes indicate
in 2020 (present), 2030 REF2020, 2050 REF2020, and 2030 FF55. The circles’ sizes indicate the
the
grid
grid mix
mix footprint.
footprint.
5. Results
To calculate the CO2 emissions from the methanol-to-diesel conversion pathway, the
This section
calculation scheme presents
proposed theinresults
RESD1offromthe carbon
JECv5 has footprint analysis for
been considered theThe
[84]. direct air
model
capture process and the production of three synthetic fuels: methane, methanol,
assumes a downstream process to methanol production, considering methanol and hy- and diesel.
The results
drogen are expressed
as feedstock, at EUtogether
reacting countryin level for the
a series ofyears 2020, 2030, and
transformations 2050 paraffins
towards for three
different cases of energy sources (grid, PV&Wind, and hybrid) and two scenarios
production (in the range of diesel fuels). The formulae used is reported here as follows: (REF2020
and FF55).
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 14 of 28
The carbon footprint of the DAC process is shown in Figure 3, considering the use of
the grid and PV&Wind as energy sources. In 2020 using the grid mix, there are five countries
in which the carbon footprint of DAC is above zero (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic,
Estonia, and Poland) with values ranging from 0.007 to 0.747 tCO2 e/tCO2 captured. The
high carbon intensity of the grid in these countries due to the large presence of fossil fuels,
currently does not allow them to obtain negative emissions using DAC. In 2030 for the
REF2020 scenario, all countries except Poland can obtain negative emissions using DAC,
and in 2050 REF2020 and 2030 FF55, all countries deliver negative emissions. Sweden is
the country with the highest negative emissions potential using DAC, obtaining a carbon
footprint of −0.864 tCO2 e/tCO2 , already captured in 2020 using the grid (37 gCO2 e/kWh)
thanks to the high penetration of hydropower in the country’s mix. It is followed by France,
Denmark, and Spain, for which an important presence of nuclear energy and renewables
decrease the carbon footprint of the grid mix. The EU aggregated carbon footprint of
DAC using the grid is −0.407, −0.586, −0.708, and −0.794 tCO2 e/tCO2 captured in 2020,
2030 REF2020, 2030 FF55, and 2050 REF2020, respectively. A grid carbon footprint of
468 gCO2 e/kWh is the threshold above which the DAC carbon footprint starts being
positive. This is in line with the results presented in [30]. When using PV&Wind as the
energy source for the DAC process, all countries are able to obtain negative emissions
of at least −0.81 tCO2 e/tCO2 captured starting already in 2020, with little but variable
changes in the future depending on which of these two energy sources is further developed
in each country. The EU aggregated carbon footprint of DAC remains at approximately
−0.89 tCO2 e/tCO2 captured for all the years and scenarios. The country values of DAC
carbon footprint for the different scenarios and years can be found in detail in Table S2 of
the Supplementary Material.
The production of synthetic methane, methanol, and diesel using DAC and hydrogen
from electrolysis is also analysed.
Figure 4 shows the CO2 emissions throughout the different stages of methanol produc-
tion: hydrogen production, CO2 capture using DAC, fuel synthesis (negligible compared
with the other stages and, therefore, not shown in the figure), and combustion. The equiva-
lent figures for methane as well as the results for the hybrid case of methanol can be found
in the Supplementary Material (Figures S1 and S2) since they follow a similar logic (the
different stages for diesel are not included since the methanol pathway has been chosen for
its production). For the year 2020 when using the grid to power DAC and produce hydro-
gen, hydrogen production is clearly the most important contributor to the CO2 emissions
due to the carbon intensity of the grid. It represents up to 77% of the total emissions in
Poland (527 gCO2 e/MJ). As seen in Figure 3, in Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia,
and Poland, DAC contributes with positive emissions, and in the case of Poland, these
are almost equivalent to the emissions from combustion (69 gCO2 e/MJ). At the EU level,
hydrogen production contributes, with 75% to the total emissions (170 gCO2 e/MJ). In this
case, it is important to take into account that the total emissions are reduced by 16% due to
the negative emissions from DAC. In Sweden, on the other hand, the negative emissions
from DAC almost compensate for all the combustion emissions, which in combination
with the low emissions from hydrogen production, result in a total carbon footprint of
30 gCO2 e/MJ for methanol. In 2030, the carbon footprint is reduced significantly compared
with 2020; such is the case for Croatia, Lithuania, and Greece, which present a reduction of
more than 70%. The values for FF55 2030 are indicated along with the REF2020 scenario
in Figure 4, represented by thinner dashed bar graphs. The biggest reduction compared
with REF2020 is observed in countries with the highest carbon footprint. In 2050, the
carbon footprint of hydrogen production becomes smaller than combustion emissions in
all countries except for Malta and Belgium, which do not appear to have a significant
reduction of grid carbon intensity throughout the years, always staying close to 2020 values.
When looking at the case of using PV&Wind for DAC and hydrogen production, the total
carbon footprint of methanol production is rather stable for all countries, ranging from 13
to 45 gCO2 e/MJ for all years.
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 28
Figure
Figure 3. Carbon footprint 3. Carbon
of DAC footprint
(tCO2 e/tCO of in
2 captured) DAC (tCO
the EU 2e/tCO
member 2 captured)
states in the
for the grid mix and EU member
PV&Wind casesstates for the
for the years grid
2020, 2030mix
REF2020, 2050
REF2020, and 2030 FF55.
and PV&Wind cases for the years 2020, 2030 REF2020, 2050 REF2020, and 2030 FF55.
The production of synthetic methane, methanol, and diesel using DAC and hydrogen
from electrolysis is also analysed.
Figure 4 shows the CO2 emissions throughout the different stages of methanol pro-
duction: hydrogen production, CO2 capture using DAC, fuel synthesis (negligible com-
pared with the other stages and, therefore, not shown in the figure), and combustion. The
equivalent figures for methane as well as the results for the hybrid case of methanol can
be found in the Supplementary Material (Figures S1 and S2) since they follow a similar
logic (the different stages for diesel are not included since the methanol pathway has been
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 16 of 28
In Figure 5, the total carbon footprints of synthetic methane, methanol, and diesel for
the different years, scenarios, and cases are presented. The carbon footprints of the fossil
equivalents are also included in the figures for comparison (natural gas (64 gCO2 e/MJ),
fossil methanol (91.6 gCO2 e/MJ), and diesel (92.2 gCO2 e/MJ)). The REDII threshold for
RFNBOs is also included, which represents the 70% GHG emissions reduction threshold
(i.e., 28.2 gCO2 e/MJ) compared with a fossil fuel comparator (FFC) set at 94 gCO2 e/MJ.
Fuels produced at a lower carbon intensity can potentially count towards the REDII targets
as RFNBOs. The current REDII LCA methodology does not account for emissions from
construction, decommissioning, or waste disposal of the infrastructures; however, the
emission factors from PV and wind used in this study consider a wider range of upstream
emissions [86,87]. Therefore, the results obtained in this study in terms of compliance with
the REDII threshold are considered conservative. The values presented in the figure can be
found in the Supplementary Material (Tables S3–S5).
Using the grid in 2020, only a few countries can produce the fuels considered with
a lower carbon footprint than their fossil equivalent. This is the case for Sweden, France,
Denmark, and Spain for methanol; Sweden, France, and Denmark for diesel; and Sweden
and France for methane. With regard to the REDII threshold (28.2 gCO2 e/MJ), currently
only Sweden would produce methane below this value (27.3 gCO2 e/MJ). The maximum
grid carbon footprints that allow for production of each of the fuels with lower or equal car-
bon footprint as their fossil equivalents are 96 gCO2 e/kWh for methane, 137.6 gCO2 e/kWh
for methanol, and 121.3 gCO2 e/kWh for diesel. To comply with the REDII threshold, the
maximum grid carbon footprints are 38.8 gCO2 e/kWh for methane, 35.3 gCO2 e/kWh
for methanol, and 30.2 gCO2 e/kWh for diesel. As a comparison, an LCA from Carbon
Engineering (liquid DAC) obtained a carbon footprint of 29 gCO2 e/MJ for FT-derived
diesel when using electricity from a grid with a carbon intensity of 13 gCO2 e/kWh, and
if the plant were using an electric calciner, the carbon footprint would be reduced to
12 gCO2 e/MJ [56]. Instead, our results show a carbon footprint of 18 gCO2 e/MJ when
using the same electricity carbon intensity (for solid DAC). In 2030 REF2020, ten more
countries can produce at least one of the three fuels analysed with a lower carbon footprint
than their fossil equivalent, although the EU average remains above all the fossil values.
However, for 2030 FF55, not only are these countries able to produce two or the three fuels
evaluated with lower emissions than their fossil equivalent, but also three more countries as
well as the EU average for methanol and diesel (78 and 88 gCO2 e/MJ) fall below the fossil
thresholds. Regarding the RED II threshold in 2030 REF2020, Sweden, France, Denmark,
Luxembourg, and Portugal are compliant for methane and methanol production, while
only Luxembourg and Portugal remain below the threshold also for diesel. In comparison,
for FF55, these five countries and Spain are all able to produce the three fuels with a carbon
footprint below the RED II threshold, while Croatia can do so for methane and methanol
only. Finally, in the year 2050 REF2020, a majority of the countries can produce at least one
fuel, and in many cases, the three fuels, with lower emissions than their fossil equivalent.
However, with regard to the REDII threshold, the results are very similar to 2030 FF55.
The EU average, on the other hand, does not comply with the REDII threshold for any of
the fuels, years, or scenarios, presenting the lowest values in 2050 REF2020 (48.9, 51, and
57.6 gCO2 e/MJ for methane, methanol, and diesel, respectively).
In the case of using PV&Wind as the energy source, all countries are able to produce
the three fuels with lower carbon emissions than their fossil equivalent for all the years. In
addition, most of the countries can comply with the REDII threshold, depending on the
year, the fuel, the scenario, and, ultimately, on the share of wind and solar energy, with
values ranging between 10.8 and 51.2 gCO2 e/MJ. In 2020, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary,
Malta, and Czech Republic are not able to produce any of the fuels with a lower carbon
footprint than the REDDII threshold. Throughout all the years and scenarios, Slovenia,
Hungary, and Malta are the only countries in which the production of all three fuels exceeds
the REDII threshold. The EU average, however, complies with it for all fuels, years, and
scenarios, with values ranging between 19.3 and 25.8 gCO2 e/MJ.
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 17 of 28
Figure 4. Methanol production emissions for the grid mix and PV&Wind cases; REF2020 and FF55
scenarios for 2020, 2030, and 2050. The 2030 graph includes both scenarios; the FF55 values are
indicated with dashed bars and the REF2020 values with solid bars.
In comparison with the grid case, the hybrid case (that assumes grid use for DAC and
PV&Wind for hydrogen production) allows to more countries with higher grid carbon foot-
prints to produce fuels in compliance with the REDII threshold, since hydrogen production
is the most limiting component in terms of carbon emissions. In contrast to the “grid case”,
the EU average in this case is able to produce methane in 2050 with lower emissions than
the REDII threshold.
Energies 2023, 16, 3881
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 28 18 of 28
Figure 5. Figure
Carbon5.footprint
Carbon footprint of e-methane,
of e-methane, e-methanol,
e-methanol, and for
and e-diesel e-diesel for the different
the different cases
cases (grid (grid mix,
mix,
PV&Wind, and hybrid) and years/scenarios (2020, 2030 REF2020, 2050 REF2020, and
PV&Wind, and hybrid) and years/scenarios (2020, 2030 REF2020, 2050 REF2020, and 2030 FF55). The 2030 FF55). The
fossil equivalents (natural gas, methanol, and diesel) and the RED II threshold are also
fossil equivalents (natural gas, methanol, and diesel) and the RED II threshold are also included. included.
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 19 of 28
6. Additional Considerations
6.1. CO2 Transport and Permanent Storage
As an alternative to the production of synthetic fuels, the CO2 captured using DAC
can also be stored permanently underground producing negative emissions overall from
cradle-to-gate. The two main CO2 storage options are in saline formations and existing oil
fields for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). Saline formation storage has been used for the
past 25 years in the North Sea, with a total of more than 20 Mt of CO2 stored. Storage with
EOR has been taking place for almost 50 years, mainly in the U.S. [92,93]. Other options
for CO2 storage are in depleted oil and gas fields (at demonstration level) [93] as well as
storage in Basalt and ultramafic rocks and storage in coal seams through Enhanced Coal
Bed Methane (ECBM) production [94]. The conversion of CO2 into an inactive compound
with a high combustion point, is considered a long-term CO2 storage solution that promotes
sustainability by reducing emission risks at later stages [24]. According to the IPCC, when
the geological reservoirs fulfil certain requirements (e.g., proper selection and management),
they are highly likely to retain more than 99% of the sequestered CO2 over 100 years and
likely to retain 99% over 1000 years [95].
Currently, CO2 is compressed and transported mainly through pipelines. Pipeline
transportation is a safe and well-established means of transportation that can be optimal in
the case of large volumes, with capacities between 1 and 5 million tonnes per year and for
distances between 100 and 500 km [24]. CO2 can also be transported by train, ship, or truck.
Large-scale transportation by ships and rail is, however, a practice not yet applied [94].
Ship transport becomes more cost effective for long distances (>2400 km) over pipelines
due to its advantages in terms of flexibility and scalability. On the other side, CO2 for ship
transport needs to be liquefied, increasing the overall costs.
In Europe, the CCS Directive constitutes the regulatory framework across EU countries
for the implementation of CCS technologies [96]. In 2013, the availability of permanent
geological storage capacity in Europe was estimated at more than 300 Gt of CO2 (more than
200 GtCO2 in the North Sea) or 117 GtCO2 , as a more conservative capacity [97]. To put it
in context, the total CO2 emissions from EU power generation and industry in 2013 were
approximately 2.2 GtCO2 . For instance, “Longship” is a full-scale CCS value chain project
announced by the government of Norway in 2020, planning to capture 800 thousand tonnes
of CO2 per year from industrial sources. The transport and storage facilities, developed
by Northern Lights, will transport by ship and pipelines up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2
per year to be stored offshore under the North Sea. The first phase of the project will be
completed in 2024, while the second phase is foreseen to transport an additional capacity
of 3.5 million tonnes CO2 per year [98,99].
6.3. DAC Costs and the Future CO2 Pricing Boundary Condition for Technology Costs
There is a large uncertainty regarding current and future DAC costs due to the initial
stages of deployment. The current cost that has been reported in the literature is based on
some operating facilities, pilot plants, and various simulations [24,29,45]. Most of the pro-
jections anticipate a technological learning potential similar to PV technology development
in the early 2000’s. However, many of the underlying assumptions are different, such as
the initial cost and the energy sources. The learning rate approach that calculates the cost
decrease rates according to the capacities installed (not based on the time series) is more
adequate, since without learning from installation experiences, time alone will not lower
the cost components. However, with this approach, the projected future costs decrease
ignores the fact that there will be a need for enormous financial aid at the beginning of the
learning curve until enough capacity is installed. To put DAC cost in context, other nature-
based carbon removal solutions, such as reforestation, today costs less than 47 EUR/tCO2 ,
although with a considerably higher land and water use. Carbon price, on the other hand,
provides a proxy value of the cost of current available carbon removal solutions (depending
on the sectors covered by the EU ETS in the future). If DAC remains at a much higher cost
compared with the carbon price, it will not be able to deliver the expected CO2 removal at
a competitive cost.
Figure 6 presents the EU ETS carbon price forecast and the DAC cost projections from
various sources derived from the literature. As of August 2022, the EU ETS carbon price is
83.84 EUR/tCO2 , having peaked at 96.99 EUR/tCO2 in February 2022 [100], significantly
higher than some projections carried out in 2016 (~15 EUR/tCO2 ). More recent projections
from the year 2022 forecast an increasing EU ETS carbon price of 85.45 EUR/tCO2 , on
average, between 2022 and 2025 and 99.63 EUR/tCO2 between 2026 and 2030, caused by
the final stages of a number of EU policy proposals from the “Fit for 55” package [101].
To become cost competitive (cost reductions to the level of the carbon price) and reach
large-scale deployment, DAC technologies require a decrease in cost through technological
learning and a higher future carbon price. As depicted in Figure 6, even following the
most optimistic learning curves, the earliest cost competitiveness of the technology is
not expected to arrive before 2035. It is important to add that today, only Climeworks
is providing a real price on permanent carbon removals through DAC selling credits at
1000 EUR/tCO2 [45], far more expensive compared with most of the values in the literature,
as can be observed in Figure 6. One important reason for the high cost is that CO2 markets
are limited and cannot provide enough revenue to offset the capture cost [102]. Addressing
this gap between DAC cost and carbon price will likely involve public intervention in the
early stages of DAC deployment. This could include re-investing a portion of the revenues
from the carbon market, as is the case of the Innovation Fund, which uses revenues from
the EU ETS [13]. The ambitious EU funding programs mentioned previously (REPowerEU
and Innovation Fund) set a good example in this policy direction that could be followed
by other key international players. As carbon capture is a public benefit, the international
diplomacy to include all stakeholders is vital in the early financing. This will provide the
necessary incentives to bridge the cost gaps at the initial stages of the technology learning
until DAC becomes a profitable option for private investment based on the future carbon
price. According to some studies, the most optimistic DAC technology scenarios can
become feasible for carbon prices over 80 EUR/tCO2 [103].
Another aspect to explore, one that may affect future DAC deployment, is transport
and storage cost for permanent storage. The cost of CO2 storage depends on the location
and type of storage site, the reservoir capacity, and the injectivity (the ratio of injection
rate per unit of pressure difference between the injection pressure and reservoir pressure),
ranging between 2 and 20 EUR/tCO2 . Large, onshore, depleted oil and gas fields with high
injectivity are at the lower end of the range, while small, offshore, deep saline aquifers with
low injectivity are at the higher end [104]. The cost of CO2 transport, on the other hand,
depends on capacities and distance, with pipelines exhibiting the widest range between
1.5 and 43.6 EUR/tCO2 and between 3.4 and 51.7 EUR/tCO2 for onshore and offshore
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 21 of 28
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 21 of 28
storage respectively. Truck and railway transportation costs are estimated at approxi-
storage respectively. Truck and railway transportation costs are estimated at approximately
mately 13–7.3 EUR/tCO2, respectively, while cost of shipping transportation varies be-
13–7.3 EUR/tCO2 , respectively, while cost of shipping transportation varies between 11
tween
and 2011 and 20 EUR/tCO
EUR/tCO [104]. 2 [104].
2
6.4.
6.4. DAC
DAC Projects
Projects
Currently,
Currently, there
there are
are 19
19 operational
operational direct
direct air
air capture
capture plants
plants in
in the
theworld
worldconcentrated
concentrated
in
in Europe,
Europe, U.S.A., and Canada
U.S.A. and Canada [6].
[6]. Most
Most of
of them
them are selling or
are selling or are
are planning
planning to
to sell
sell the
the CO
CO22
captured
captured to to the
the market
market for
for various
various applications
applications [6,44,47,110].
[6,44,47,110]. All
All these
these plants
plants together
together are
are
capturing,
capturing, in in total,
total, more
more than
than 10
10 ktCO
ktCO22/year
/yearby bythe
theend
endofof2021
2021[6].
[6].
In
In addition
addition to toClimeworks,
Climeworks, Carbon
Carbon Engineering,
Engineering, and and Global
GlobalThermostat,
Thermostat, several
severalnewnew
companies
companies and start-ups have been emerging in the last few years, focusing their efforts
and start-ups have been emerging in the last few years, focusing their efforts
on
on reducing
reducing cost
cost and
and energy
energy use
use [18]. Details
Details on
on the
the existing
existing and
and planned
planned DAC
DAC projects
projects
around
around thethe world
world cancan be
be found
found in
in Tables
Tables S7–S10 of the Supplementary Material.
7. Discussion
7. Discussion
A number
A number of oflimitations
limitationswere
wereencountered
encountered during
during this
this analysis
analysis for
forwhich
whichfuture
futurework
work
couldhelp
could helpimprove
improvethe the results.
results. Firstly,
Firstly, the the availability
availability of up-to-date
of up-to-date data ondataPVonandPVwind
and
wind carbon
carbon footprintfootprint
in the in the literature
literature is veryislimited,
very limited, withone
with only only one overall
overall value
value for for
wind
wind power from 2013 and country data for PV from 2011. Further
power from 2013 and country data for PV from 2011. Further work could focus on devel- work could focus on
developing up-to-date and future projections of PV and wind carbon
oping up-to-date and future projections of PV and wind carbon footprints, which would footprints, which
would increase
increase the accuracy
the accuracy of the Future
of the results. results.work
Future work
could could
also focus also
on focus on geospatial
geospatial analysis
analysis of the optimal locations for DAC and hydrogen production
of the optimal locations for DAC and hydrogen production according to future RES according to future
avail-
RES availability
ability in the countries.
in the different different countries.
RegardingRegarding fuel production,
fuel production, future workfuture work
could could
expand
expand
this thisanalysing
study, study, analysing additional
additional fuels conversion
fuels conversion pathways pathways targeting
targeting the EUthe EU mid-
mid-term
term policy scenarios for the transport sector, such as liquid hydrocarbons
policy scenarios for the transport sector, such as liquid hydrocarbons ready to be used ready to in
be
used in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy
hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy road freight transport. road freight
transport.
Most of the future scenarios trying to limit global temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-
Mostlevels
of thealready
future scenarios trying tooflimit global temperature to 1.5 ◦ C above pre-
industrial include some sort carbon removals, including DAC. The high
industrial levels already include some sort of carbon removals, including DAC. The high
uncertainty surrounding DAC, especially in terms of energy use, scale-up capacity, and
uncertainty surrounding DAC, especially in terms of energy use, scale-up capacity, and
cost, creates some scepticism when relying upon this technology in future scenarios to
cost, creates some scepticism when relying upon this technology in future scenarios to
reduce emissions since a possible failure to meet the deployment targets could lead to a
reduce emissions since a possible failure to meet the deployment targets could lead to a
global temperature overshoot. In Europe, the EU Green Deal has set the path towards net
global temperature overshoot. In Europe, the EU Green Deal has set the path towards net
zero emissions by 2050, and the latest REPowerEU plan is accelerating the green transition.
zero emissions by 2050, and the latest REPowerEU plan is accelerating the green transition.
The “Fit for 55” scenario already considers the introduction of DAC in 2035, which implies
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 22 of 28
The “Fit for 55” scenario already considers the introduction of DAC in 2035, which implies
that more large-scale demonstration plants will need to be deployed to reduce the cost
and reach maturity. Currently, 10 ktCO2 /year are being removed with DAC globally, and
the largest commercial plant is removing 4 ktCO2 /year (with two future plants in the
pipeline of 35 ktCO2 /year and 1MtCO2 /year). In contrast, 200 MtCO2 are expected to be
removed from DAC in the EU to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and the aspirational goal
for EU sustainable carbon cycles is to remove 5 MtCO2 /year by 2030. The gap between
current DAC capacities and CO2 removals targets is clearly very large. To overcome this
challenge and enable the future deployment of DAC at scale—which will also contribute
to reducing the cost overtime—policy development and governmental support in the
early stages are key. A few programs have been put in place in the last few years in the
EU (i.e., Innovation Fund, EU-Catalyst partnership, and the Sustainable Carbon Cycles
certification framework) that are expected to incentivize the development of DAC on a
large scale in the future. Modularity is also an important factor to enable faster deployment
on that scale. Regarding energy use, DAC technologies that require lower temperatures
and can be fully powered by RES or waste heat are better positioned in terms of energy
availability and independence from fossil fuels. During the first period of scaling up pilot
projects, the cost of DAC is substantially high; however, it is expected to decrease with a
combination of more installations and technological advancements that will contribute to
the technology’s learning curve, as it has already occurred with other technologies, such as
PV, wind, and (partially) lithium batteries. The economic viability of DAC technologies is
highly dependent on the (future) carbon price developments that has become quite volatile
due to sudden policy and geopolitical changes. Carbon price increase and the simultaneous
DAC cost decrease is expected to bring an economic equilibrium that will enable DAC to
become competitive. Public intervention in the early stages of DAC deployment and/or
dedication of the carbon market revenues for the installation of pilot DAC projects is
considered to be of high importance. From a policy perspective, EU funding programs
(such as REPowerEU and Innovation Fund) can be proven vital for the future of DAC
technology investments.
When coupled with electrolysers powered by renewable energies, DAC can also help
to offset emissions from sectors difficult to decarbonise (e.g., energy intensive industries,
aviation, and maritime) through the production of synthetic fuels, and it may potentially
cover a large part of the RFNBOs share for the transport sector. Moreover, in a highly
decarbonised future economy, CO2 availability from concentrated sources may be limited,
and DAC could be a CO2 source for the production of carbon-based synthetic fuels needed
in these residual sectors. Despite their conversion technologies being at early TRLs, the “Fit
for 55” package introduced specific targets for RFNBOs with regard to their production,
so their market uptake is expected soon. As with DAC, it is essential to provide adequate
incentives for the development of synthetic fuels to make them cost competitive. Drop-in
fuels can be very advantageous, as they are compatible with the existing fuel distribution
and usage infrastructure, and moreover, some of these fuels can also be used in the industry
as chemicals. The results of this study highlight the importance of using renewable energies
(wind and solar) for synthetic fuel production if the REDII threshold for RFNBOs is to
be met. This is fully in line with the “Fit for 55” targets and the recent REPowerEU
plan whereby wind and solar energy production is expected to increase and, therefore,
potentially be available for DAC and hydrogen production in order to produce compliant
fuels and remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
8. Conclusions
The present study provides an in-depth review of direct air capture, exploring various
technological and economical aspects as well as providing an overview of the current DAC
projects around the world. It also performs an analysis of the current and future carbon
footprint of the DAC technology in the EU countries under different cases and scenarios as
well as its utilisation to produce three synthetic fuels (i.e., methane, methanol, and diesel).
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 23 of 28
Supplementary Materials: The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https:
//www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/en16093881/s1, Figure S1. Methane production emissions for
the Grid mix and PV&Wind cases; REF2020 and FF55 scenarios for 2020, 2030, and 2050; Figure S2.
Methane and methanol production emissions for the Hybrid case; REF2020 and FF55 scenarios
for 2020, 2030, and 2050; Table S1. List of EU countries’ codes; Table S2. DAC carbon footprint;
Table S3. Fuel total carbon footprint for the “Grid Case”; Table S4. Fuel total carbon footprint
(gCO2 e/MJ) for the “PV&Wind Case”; Table S5. Fuel total carbon footprint (gCO2 e/MJ) for the
“Hybrid Case”; Table S6. Area and water requirements of DAC technologies; Table S7. Main projects
from Climeworks; Table S8. Main projects from Global Thermostat; Table S9. Main projects from
Carbon Engineering; Table S10. Other DAC companies. References [111–126] are cited in the
Supplementary Materials.
Author Contributions: R.G.S., conceptualization, visualization, writing—original draft, writing—
review and editing, investigation, formal analysis, and methodology; A.C., conceptualization,
writing—original draft, writing—review and editing, investigation, and methodology; G.K., vi-
sualization, writing—review and editing, methodology, and software; M.B., writing—original draft,
writing—review and editing, methodology, and formal analysis; S.S., writing—original draft, investi-
gation, methodology, and supervision. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available in the present article
“The role of direct air capture in EU’s decarbonisation and associated carbon intensity for synthetic
fuels production” and the corresponding Supplementary Materials available, as mentioned above.
Energies 2023, 16, 3881 24 of 28
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The scientific output expressed is
based on the current information available to the authors and does not imply a policy position of the
European Commission.
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Supplementary material
Table S1. List of EU countries´ codes.
Code Country
AT Austria
BE Belgium
BG Bulgaria
HR Croatia
CY Cyprus
CZ Czech Republic
DK Denmark
EE Estonia
EU European Union
FI Finland
FR France
DE Germany
EL Greece
HU Hungary
IE Ireland
IT Italy
LV Latvia
LT Lithuania
LU Luxembourg
MT Malta
NL Netherlands
PL Poland
PT Portugal
RO Romania
SK Slovakia
SI Slovenia
ES Spain
SE Sweden
Figure S1. Methane production emissions for the grid mix and PV&Wind cases and REF2020 and FF55 scenarios
for 2020, 2030 and 2050. The 2030 graph includes both scenarios, where, the FF55 values are indicated with
dashed bars and the REF2020 values with solid bars.
Figure S2. Methane and methanol production emissions for the Hybrid case and REF2020 and FF55 scenarios for
2020, 2030 and 2050. The 2030 graph includes both scenarios, where, the FF55 values are indicated with dashed
bars and the REF2020 values with solid bars.
Table S2. DAC carbon footprint.
Czech Republic 0.185 -0.293 -0.649 -0.476 -0.832 -0.856 -0.871 -0.890
Country Me. MeOl Di. Me. MeOl Di. Me. MeOl Di. Me. MeOl Di.
Sweden 27.4 29.6 33.4 23.2 25.5 28.7 18.0 20.3 22.8 16.8 19.0 21.4
France 36.2 38.4 43.3 24.9 27.1 30.5 21.5 23.7 26.7 18.3 20.5 23.1
Denmark 77.3 79.2 89.6 23.9 26.2 29.5 15.4 17.7 19.9 19.7 21.9 24.7
Spain 84.4 86.3 97.5 30.1 32.3 36.4 19.1 21.4 24.1 22.5 24.7 27.9
Luxembourg 101.5 103.3 116.8 17.1 19.4 21.8 14.7 17.0 19.1 14.0 16.2 18.3
Belgium 118.3 119.9 135.6 146.3 147.8 167.2 123.4 125.0 141.4 136.6 138.1 156.3
Slovakia 121.5 123.1 139.3 55.5 57.5 65.0 31.2 33.4 37.7 38.4 40.5 45.8
Austria 123.0 124.6 140.9 68.0 69.9 79.0 39.4 41.5 46.9 52.0 54.1 61.1
Portugal 133.0 134.6 152.2 22.0 24.2 27.3 8.0 10.4 11.6 17.3 19.5 22.0
Latvia 130.6 132.2 149.5 93.6 95.4 107.8 28.0 30.2 34.1 83.9 85.7 96.9
Finland 144.2 145.6 164.7 65.7 67.7 76.5 46.6 48.7 55.0 40.1 42.2 47.7
Slovenia 153.9 155.3 175.7 134.1 135.6 153.4 97.4 99.1 112.1 107.7 109.4 123.7
Croatia 161.1 162.5 183.8 45.6 47.7 53.8 29.7 31.9 36.0 23.5 25.7 29.0
Lithuania 167.7 169.0 191.2 40.8 42.9 48.5 20.9 23.1 26.0 60.7 62.7 70.9
EU 169.3 170.6 193.0 113.6 115.3 130.4 48.9 51.0 57.6 76.0 77.8 88.0
Ireland 173.8 175.1 198.1 70.0 71.9 81.3 56.5 58.5 66.2 58.3 60.3 68.2
Italy 188.0 189.1 214.0 127.0 128.6 145.4 63.7 65.7 74.3 70.0 71.9 81.3
Hungary 188.5 189.6 214.6 58.0 60.0 67.8 57.5 59.5 67.3 50.8 52.9 59.7
Romania 201.9 203.0 229.7 107.5 109.2 123.5 44.2 46.3 52.3 54.6 56.6 64.0
Malta 216.5 217.5 246.1 193.2 194.3 219.8 182.8 184.0 208.2 181.8 183.0 207.1
Germany 223.4 224.3 253.8 180.3 181.6 205.4 54.0 56.0 63.3 121.8 123.4 139.6
Greece 243.7 244.5 276.7 69.7 71.6 80.9 47.4 49.5 55.9 77.1 79.0 89.3
Netherlands 266.4 267.1 302.2 111.8 113.5 128.4 70.1 72.0 81.4 89.0 90.8 102.6
Bulgaria 298.2 298.7 338.0 190.0 191.2 216.3 39.5 41.7 47.0 133.0 134.5 152.2
Cyprus 308.4 308.8 349.5 156.0 157.4 178.1 85.9 87.7 99.2 129.1 130.7 147.8
Czech Republic 353.6 353.8 400.3 205.0 206.1 233.2 94.2 96.0 108.6 148.0 149.4 169.0
Estonia 482.3 481.6 545.1 276.6 277.3 313.7 32.8 35.0 39.5 142.4 143.9 162.7
Poland 528.5 527.5 597.0 417.8 417.5 472.5 100.4 102.1 115.5 232.4 233.3 264.0
Table S4. Fuel total carbon footprint (gCO2e/MJ) for the "PV&Wind Case".
Sweden 11.9 14.2 16.0 13.1 15.4 17.3 13.2 15.5 17.4 13.3 15.6 17.6
France 17.9 20.2 22.7 18.4 20.6 23.2 17.1 19.4 21.8 17.1 19.3 21.8
Denmark 12.8 15.1 16.9 15.1 17.4 19.6 15.8 18.1 20.3 15.6 17.9 20.1
Spain 16.4 18.7 21.0 15.8 18.1 20.4 19.6 21.8 24.6 16.7 19.0 21.3
Luxembourg 25.6 27.8 31.3 35.0 37.2 42.0 33.8 36.0 40.6 33.9 36.1 40.7
Belgium 21.1 23.4 26.3 19.2 21.4 24.1 23.2 25.5 28.7 19.5 21.8 24.5
Slovakia 43.2 45.3 51.2 29.6 31.8 35.8 26.2 28.4 32.0 30.7 32.8 37.1
Austria 17.5 19.8 22.3 22.3 24.5 27.7 24.7 26.9 30.4 25.2 27.4 30.9
Portugal 13.4 15.7 17.7 17.4 19.6 22.1 16.6 18.9 21.2 17.9 20.2 22.7
Latvia 11.0 13.3 14.9 11.1 13.4 15.1 12.9 15.2 17.1 12.0 14.3 16.1
Finland 11.7 14.0 15.7 12.9 15.2 17.1 12.7 15.0 16.9 13.2 15.5 17.4
Slovenia 40.2 42.3 47.8 37.3 39.5 44.6 36.8 39.0 44.0 31.5 33.7 38.0
Croatia 12.1 14.4 16.1 14.5 16.8 18.9 18.7 21.0 23.6 17.5 19.8 22.3
Lithuania 14.9 17.2 19.3 17.3 19.5 22.0 22.7 25.0 28.1 21.2 23.4 26.4
EU 19.3 21.6 24.3 19.9 22.1 24.9 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.0 22.2 25.0
Ireland 10.8 13.1 14.8 11.5 13.8 15.5 12.6 14.9 16.8 11.9 14.2 16.0
Italy 24.6 26.8 30.2 26.5 28.7 32.4 26.3 28.5 32.1 24.2 26.4 29.8
Hungary 30.6 32.8 37.0 35.2 37.4 42.2 28.5 30.7 34.6 31.9 34.1 38.4
Romania 17.1 19.4 21.8 21.1 23.3 26.3 20.3 22.6 25.4 21.9 24.1 27.2
Malta 28.9 31.1 35.1 28.9 31.1 35.1 28.9 31.1 35.1 28.7 30.9 34.8
Germany 21.2 23.4 26.4 21.1 23.3 26.3 20.5 22.8 25.7 21.1 23.3 26.3
Greece 18.0 20.2 22.8 18.7 21.0 23.6 18.0 20.3 22.9 18.9 21.2 23.9
Netherlands 21.7 23.9 26.9 19.2 21.4 24.1 18.2 20.5 23.0 17.5 19.8 22.3
Bulgaria 23.7 25.9 29.2 29.0 31.2 35.2 23.7 25.9 29.2 27.5 29.7 33.5
Cyprus 18.8 21.0 23.7 24.7 26.9 30.3 24.6 26.8 30.3 25.0 27.2 30.7
Czech Republic 37.1 39.3 44.4 29.7 31.9 36.0 25.1 27.3 30.8 19.1 21.3 24.0
Estonia 15.7 18.0 20.2 13.6 15.9 17.9 16.9 19.2 21.6 13.9 16.2 18.2
Poland 14.2 16.5 18.6 17.7 20.0 22.5 15.7 18.0 20.3 19.0 21.3 24.0
Table S5. Fuel total carbon footprint (gCO2e/MJ) for the "Hybrid Case".
Country Me. MeOl Di. Me. MeOl Di. Me. MeOl Di. Me. MeOl Di.
Sweden 14.7 17.7 19.8 14.9 17.6 19.8 14.1 16.6 18.6 13.9 16.4 18.4
France 21.2 24.2 27.3 19.5 22.1 24.8 17.9 20.4 22.9 17.3 19.6 22.1
Denmark 24.2 29.4 32.9 16.7 19.4 21.8 15.7 18.0 20.2 16.3 18.8 21.1
Spain 28.4 33.8 37.8 18.4 21.3 23.9 19.5 21.7 24.5 17.7 20.2 22.8
Luxembourg 39.0 44.7 50.1 31.9 33.2 37.6 30.4 31.7 35.9 30.4 31.6 35.8
Belgium 38.3 45.0 50.4 41.7 49.7 55.6 41.0 47.7 53.5 40.3 47.8 53.5
Slovakia 57.1 62.7 70.5 34.2 37.5 42.3 27.1 29.5 33.3 32.0 34.6 39.0
Austria 36.2 43.2 48.3 30.4 34.7 38.9 27.3 30.2 34.0 30.0 33.4 37.6
Portugal 34.6 42.3 47.2 18.2 20.7 23.2 15.1 17.0 19.1 17.8 20.0 22.6
Latvia 32.2 39.9 44.5 25.7 31.8 35.5 15.6 18.5 20.8 24.8 30.3 33.9
Finland 35.2 43.4 48.5 22.3 26.9 30.1 18.7 22.6 25.3 18.0 21.5 24.1
Slovenia 60.4 67.6 75.9 54.5 61.0 68.5 47.6 52.4 59.0 45.0 50.6 56.9
Croatia 38.5 47.5 53.0 20.0 23.7 26.5 20.7 23.4 26.4 18.6 21.1 23.8
Lithuania 42.0 51.2 57.1 21.4 24.8 27.8 22.4 24.5 27.7 28.2 32.2 36.2
EU 45.9 54.9 61.4 36.5 43.0 48.1 25.6 29.2 32.8 29.9 34.7 38.9
Ireland 39.7 49.4 55.1 21.8 26.8 30.0 20.4 24.7 27.6 20.1 24.5 27.5
Italy 53.5 63.1 70.6 44.3 51.0 57.2 32.9 36.8 41.4 32.3 36.6 41.1
Hungary 58.6 67.9 76.0 39.2 42.4 47.8 33.6 37.1 41.8 35.2 38.3 43.1
Romania 49.8 60.4 67.5 36.4 42.5 47.6 24.5 27.9 31.3 27.7 31.4 35.3
Malta 62.1 72.8 81.5 58.0 67.6 75.7 56.2 65.3 73.2 55.8 64.9 72.7
Germany 57.0 68.3 76.4 49.3 58.7 65.7 26.5 30.2 33.9 38.9 45.7 51.2
Greece 58.0 70.4 78.6 27.8 32.3 36.2 23.2 26.8 30.1 29.2 34.1 38.3
Netherlands 65.0 78.3 87.5 35.6 42.0 47.1 27.4 32.0 35.9 30.2 35.7 40.0
Bulgaria 72.3 86.9 97.1 57.5 67.0 75.0 26.5 29.4 33.1 46.2 53.1 59.6
Cyprus 70.1 85.4 95.3 47.9 56.1 62.8 35.5 40.4 45.4 43.4 50.3 56.4
Czech Republic 93.2 109.6 122.6 60.8 70.9 79.3 37.3 42.7 47.9 41.9 50.0 55.9
Estonia 98.3 121.6 135.6 60.2 74.4 83.0 19.7 22.7 25.5 36.6 44.7 50.0
Poland 105.3 130.8 145.8 88.6 108.9 121.4 30.7 36.8 41.2 56.8 68.7 76.8
Table S6. Area and water requirements of DAC technologies.
Area Water
DAC technology and energy
Reference Reference
source [tH2O/tCO2 captured]
[m2/tCO2 captured]
0-50 [1]
LIQUID (NG with CCS + 1-7 (70% hum., 10˚C - 30% hum.,
1.9 [2] [2]
geothermal) 50˚C)
SOLID (wind) 66
Table S7. Main projects from Climeworks.
Artic Fox, Delivers carbon removals through mineralization by pumping CO2 mixed
Hellisheidi 2017 with water 800-2 000m underground where it reacts with basalt rock. [9]
(Iceland) Plant capacity of 50 tCO2 per year, powered by Carbfix’s geothermal plant.
Karlsruhe Part of a research project to produce carbon black from CO2 to be used as a
2020 [12]
(Germany) raw material for high-tech applications
Part of the EU H2020 funded Carbfix2 project to scale up the CO2 removal
capacity. Presents some innovations to help scaling up the technology,
Orca, Hellisheidi material’s reduction and faster adsorption/desorption cycles that increase [13, 14,
2021
(Iceland) the annual capture capacity, reaching 500 tCO2 captured per collector. The 15]
plant consists of 8 collectors capturing 4 000 tCO2 per year. Powered by a
geothermal power plant.
Mammoth,
Second commercial DACCS plant installed next to Orca with the main
Hellisheidi
objective of scaling up the technology. Nominal CO₂ capture capacity of 36 [16]
(Iceland) (under
000 tCO2/year when fully operational.
construction)
Pilot, California
2011 Capture capacity of 700 tCO2/year [17]
(USA)
Pilot, California
2013 Capture capacity of 10 000 tCO2/year
(USA)
Demonstration,
2019 Capture capacity of 2 000tCO2/year
Alabama (USA)
Colorado (under
2022 Capture capacity of 5 000tCO2/year
construction)
An additional fuel synthesis capability was added to the pilot to produce liquid
Pilot + fuel synthesis 2017 [18]
fuels using hydrogen from a PV based electrolyser.
Mission zero CO2 is captured electrochemically from the air and the solvent is
technologies regenerated at ambient temperature, lowering the energy use by 3-5 times
[25]
compared to other DAC technologies. Pilot trials planned from 2023 in the
(UK) UK to make carbon negative building aggregates.
Modular building-HVAC-integrated CO2 capture system to produce
Soletair valuable products and improve well-being of building residents. Their
[26]
(Finland) standard ventilation unit can be integrated into buildings with the HVAC
system to capture up to 20 tCO2/year from an airstream of 3.3 m3/s.
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