The Debate Is On
The Debate Is On
The Debate Is On
The Global Energy Transition in the South Africa Context (Background Information)
According to S&P Global, the definition of the term ‘energy transition’ refers to the “global energy
sector’s shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption - including oil, natural
gas and coal - to renewable energy sources like wind and solar.” The renewable energy transition is a
gradual and steady shift of global energy production towards a zero-carbon system; it is expected to take
place by 2050, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The global energy
transition is the main tool in a broader strategy adopted by governments to contain global warming to
1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century.
South Africa’s promise [to decrease its Carbon footprint] stems back to 2009…when [in the Copenhagen
Accord] former President Jacob Zuma pledged what is now the foundation for South Africa’s climate
trajectory: peak- plateau-decline. This holds the country growing its carbon emissions to 2025 (next year)
and then holding emissions at this level for a decade before they drop. That plan is roughly aligned to the
growth of emissions from Eskom’s power plants; therefore, old ones are decommissioned from the late
2020s onwards. This plan does, however, warn that: ‘The extent to which this outcome can be achieved
depends on the extent to which developed countries meet their commitment to provide financial, capacity
building, technological development, and technology transfer support to developing countries’. In other
words the plan calls for what is now referred to as a ‘Just Transition’
Over a decade later and the SA Government is at odds with itself with regard to the Country’s transition
from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption - including oil, natural gas and coal - to
renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
On the one hand President Cyril Ramaphosa and the Presidential Climate Commission have
embraced the concept of a ‘Just Transition’. Accordingly they have developed a Just Energy Transition
Investment Plan (JET IP) for the five-year period 2023-2027 which sets out the scale of need and the
investments required to achieve the decarbonisation commitments in the Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC). The NDC outlines the rate at which South Africa plans to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and represents South Africa’s fair contribution to the goals of the Paris Agreement.
On the other hand, Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe remains committed to
the continued use of coal (and gas) for as long as is possible – how long that may be is yet to be
determined. With South Africa’s coal reserves estimated at about 53 billion tons (almost 200 years of coal
supply left) (www.eskom.co.za) this may mean going beyond the 2050 zero-emissions cutoff date.
“You don’t destroy what you have on the basis of hope that something better is coming. You build for the
future on what you know and what you have. So that approach to me is scientific, is systematic, it protects
the present ability of the state to supply energy …Now, what do we do with it, do we set it alight and
destroy it? My argument is that let’s allow it to benefit [us] as long as it can .”