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title: Practical Sampling TechniquesStatistics, Textbooks and

Monographs ; V. 148
author: Som, Ranjan Kumar.
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print isbn13: 9780824796761
ebook isbn13: 9780585231792
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Practical Sampling Techniques

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STATISTICS: Textbooks and Monographs

A Series Edited by
D. B. Owen, Founding Editor, 1972-1991
W. R. Schucany, Coordinating Editor
Department of Statistics
Southern Methodist University
Dallas, Texas
R. G. Cornell, Associate Editor for Biostatistics
University of Michigan
A. M. Kshirsagar, Associate Editor for Multivariate Analysis and Experimental Design
University of Michigan
W. J. Kennedy, Associate Editor for Statistical Computing
Iowa State University
E. G. Schilling, Associate Editor for Statistical Quality Control
Rochester Institute of Technology
1. The Generalized Jackknife Statistic, H. L. Gray and W R. Schucany
2. Multivariate Analysis, Anant M. Kshirsagar
3. Statistics and Society, Walter T. Federer
4. Multivariate Analysis: A Selected and Abstracted Bibliography, 1957-1972, Kocherlakota Subrahmaniam and
Kathleen Subrahmaniam
5. Design of Experiments: A Realistic Approach, Virgil L. Anderson and Robert A. McLean
6. Statistical and Mathematical Aspects of Pollution Problems, John W. Pratt
7. Introduction to Probability and Statistics (in two parts), Part I: Probability; Part II: Statistics, Narayan C. Girl
8. Statistical Theory of the Analysis of Experimental Designs, J. Ogawa
9. Statistical Techniques in Simulation (in two parts), Jack P. C. Kleijnen
10. Data Quality Control and Editing, Joseph I. Naus
11. Cost of Living Index Numbers: Practice, Precision, and Theory, Kali S. Banerjee
12. Weighing Designs: For Chemistry, Medicine, Economics, Operations Research, Statistics, Kali S. Banerjee
13. The Search for Oil: Some Statistical Methods and Techniques, edited by D. B. Owen
14. Sample Size Choice: Charts for Experiments with Linear Models, Robert E. Odeh and Martin Fox
15. Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists, Robert M. Bethea, Benjamin S. Duran, and Thomas L.
Boullion
16. Statistical Quality Control Methods, Irving W. Burr
17. On the History of Statistics and Probability, edited by D. B. Owen
18. Econometrics, Peter Schmidt
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19. Sufficient Statistics: Selected Contributions, Vasant S. Huzurbazar (edited by Anant M. Kshirsagar)
20. Handbook of Statistical Distributions, Jagdish K. Patel, C. H. Kapadia, and D. B. Owen
21. Case Studies in Sample Design, A. C. Rosander
22. Pocket Book of Statistical Tables, compiled by R. E. Odeh, D. B. Owen, Z. W. Birnbaum, and L. Fisher
23. The Information in Contingency Tables, D. V. Gokhale and Solomon Kullback
24. Statistical Analysis of Reliability and Life-Testing Models: Theory and Methods, Lee J. Bain
25. Elementary Statistical Quality Control, Irving W. Burr
26. An Introduction to Probability and Statistics Using BASIC, Richard A. Groeneveld
27. Basic Applied Statistics, B. L. Raktoe and J. J. Hubert
28. A Primer in Probability, Kathleen Subrahmaniam
29. Random Processes: A First Look, R. Syski
30. Regression Methods: A Tool for Data Analysis, Rudolf J. Freund and Paul D. Minton
31. Randomization Tests, Eugene S. Edgington
32. Tables for Normal Tolerance Limits, Sampling Plans and Screening, Robert E. Odeh and D. B. Owen
33. Statistical Computing, William J. Kennedy, Jr., and James E. Gentle
34. Regression Analysis and Its Application: A Data-Oriented Approach, Richard F. Gunst and Robert L. Mason
35. Scientific Strategies to Save Your Life, I. D. J. Bross
36. Statistics in the Pharmaceutical Industry, edited by C. Ralph Buncher and JiaYeong Tsay
37. Sampling from a Finite Population, J. Hajek
38. Statistical Modeling Techniques, S. S. Shapiro and A. J. Gross
39. Statistical Theory and Inference in Research, T. A. Bancroft and C.-P. Han
40. Handbook of the Normal Distribution, Jagdish K. Patel and Campbell B. Read
41. Recent Advances in Regression Methods, Hrishikesh D. Vinod and Aman Ullah
42. Acceptance Sampling in Quality Control, Edward G. Schilling
43. The Randomized Clinical Trial and Therapeutic Decisions, edited by Niels Tygstrup, John M Lachin, and
Erik Juhl
44. Regression Analysis of Survival Data in Cancer Chemotherapy, Walter H. Carter, Jr., Galen L. Wampler,
and Donald M. Stablein
45. A Course in Linear Models, Anant M. Kshirsagar
46. Clinical Trials: Issues and Approaches, edited by Stanley H. Shapiro and Thomas H. Louis
47. Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Data, edited by B. S. Weir
48. Nonlinear Regression Modeling: A Unified Practical Approach, David A. Ratkowsky
49. Attribute Sampling Plans, Tables of Tests and Confidence Limits for Proportions, Robert E. Odeh and D. B.
Owen
50. Experimental Design, Statistical Models, and Genetic Statistics, edited by Klaus Hinkelmann
 51. Statistical Methods for Cancer Studies, edited by Richard G. Cornell
52. Practical Statistical Sampling for Auditors, Arthur J. Wilburn
53. Statistical Methods for Cancer Studies, edited by EdwardJ. Wegman and James G. Smith
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54. Self-Organizing Methods in Modeling: GMDH Type Algorithms, edited by Stanley J. Farlow
55. Applied Factorial and Fractional Designs, Robert A. McLean and Virgil L. Anderson
56. Design of Experiments: Ranking and Selection, edited by Thomas J. Santnerand Ajit C. Tamhane
57. Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Robert M. Bethea,
Benjamin S. Duran, and Thomas L. Boullion
58. Ensemble Modeling: Inference from Small-Scale Properties to Large-Scale Systems, Alan E. Gelfand and
Crayton C. Walker
59. Computer Modeling for Business and Industry, Bruce L. Bowerman and Richard T. O'Connell
60. Bayesian Analysis of Linear Models, Lyle D. Broemeling
61. Methodological Issues for Health Care Surveys, Brenda Cox and Steven Cohen
62. Applied Regression Analysis and Experimental Design, Richard J. Brook and Gregory C. Arnold
63. Statpal: A Statistical Package for Microcomputers-PC-DOS Version for the IBM PC and Compatibles, Bruce
J. Chalmer and David G. Whitmore
64. Statpal: A Statistical Package for Microcomputers-Apple Version for the II, II +, and lle, David G. Whitmore
and Bruce J. Chalmer
65. Nonparametric Statistical Inference: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Jean Dickinson Gibbons
66. Design and Analysis of Experiments, Roger G. Petersen
67. Statistical Methods for Pharmaceutical Research Planning, Sten W. Bergman and John C. Gittins
68. Goodness-of-Fit Techniques, edited by Ralph B. D'Agostino and Michael A. Stephens
69. Statistical Methods in Discrimination Litigation, edited by D. H. Kaye and Mikel Aickin
70. Truncated and Censored Samples from Normal Populations, Helmut Schneider
71. Robust Inference, M. L. Tiku, W. Y. Tan, and N. Balakrishnan
72. Statistical Image Processing and Graphics, edited by Edward J. Wegman and Douglas J. DePriest
73. Assignment Methods in Combinatorial Data Analysis, Lawrence J. Hubert
74. Econometrics and Structural Change, Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi
75. Multivariate Interpretation of Clinical Laboratory Data, Adelin Albert and Eugene K. Harris
76. Statistical Tools for Simulation Practitioners, Jack P. C. Kleinen
77. Randomization Tests: Second Edition, Eugene S. Edgington
78. A Folio of Distributions: A Collection of Theoretical Quantile-Quantile Plots, Edward B. Fowlkes
79. Applied Categorical Data Analysis, Daniel H. Freeman, Jr.
80. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations Models: Estimation and Inference, Virendra K. Srivastava and
David E. A. Giles
81. Response Surfaces: Designs and Analyses, Andre I. Khuri and John A. Cornell
82. Nonlinear Parameter Estimation: An Integrated System in BASIC, John C. Nash and Mary Walker-Smith
83. Cancer Modeling, edited by James R. Thompson and Barry W. Brown
84. Mixture Models: Inference and Applications to Clustering, Geoffrey J. McLachlan and Kaye E. Basford
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85. Randomized Response: Theory and Techniques, Arijit Chaudhuri and Rahul Mukerjee
86. Biopharmaceutical Statistics for Drug Development, edited by Karl E. Peace
87. Parts per Million Values for Estimating Quality Levels, Robert E. Odeh and D. B. Owen
88. Lognormal Distributions: Theory and Applications, edited by Edwin L. Crow and Kunio Shimizu
89. Properties of Estimators for the Gamma Distribution, K. O. Bowman and L. R. Shenton
90. Spline Smoothing and Nonparametric Regression, Randall L. Eubank
91. Linear Least Squares Computations, R. W. Farebrother
92. Exploring Statistics, Damaraju Raghavarao
93. Applied Time Series Analysis for Business and Economic Forecasting, Sufi M. Nazem
94. Bayesian Analysis of Time Series and Dynamic Models, edited by James C. Spall
95. The Inverse Gaussian Distribution: Theory, Methodology, and Applications, Raj S. Chhikara and J. Leroy
Folks
96. Parameter Estimation in Reliability and Life Span Models, A. Clifford Cohen and Betty Jones Whitten
97. Pooled Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data Analysis, Terry E. Dielman
98. Random Processes: A First Look, Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, R. Syski
99. Generalized Poisson Distributions: Properties and Applications, P. C. Consul
100. Nonlinear Lp-Norm Estimation, Rene Gonin and Arthur H. Money
101. Model Discrimination for Nonlinear Regression Models, Dale S. Borowiak
102. Applied Regression Analysis in Econometrics, Howard E. Doran
103. Continued Fractions in Statistical Applications, K. O. Bowman and L. R. Shenton
104. Statistical Methodology in the Pharmaceutical Sciences, Donald A. Berry
105. Experimental Design in Biotechnology, Perry D. Haaland
106. Statistical Issues in Drug Research and Development, edited by Karl E. Peace
107. Handbook of Nonlinear Regression Models, David A. Ratkowsky
108. Robust Regression: Analysis and Applications, edited by Kenneth D. Lawrence and Jeffrey L. Arthur
109. Statistical Design and Analysis of Industrial Experiments, edited by Subir Ghosh
110. U-Statistics: Theory and Practice, A. J. Lee
111. A Primer in Probability: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Kathleen Subrahmaniam
112. Data Quality Control: Theory and Pragmatics, edited by Gunar E. Liepins and V. R. R. Uppuluri
113. Engineering Quality by Design: Interpreting the Taguchi Approach, Thomas B. Barker
114. Survivorship Analysis for Clinical Studies, Eugene K. Harris and Adelin Albert
115. Statistical Analysis of Reliability and Life-Testing Models: Second Edition, Lee J. Bain and Max
Engelhardt
116. Stochastic Models of Carcinogenesis, Wai-Yuan Tan
117. Statistics and Society: Data Collection and Interpretation: Second Edition, Re-vised and Expanded, Walter
 T. Federer
118. Handbook of Sequential Analysis, B. K. Ghosh and P. K. Sen
119. Truncated and Censored Samples: Theory and Applications, A. Clifford Cohen
120. Survey Sampling Principles, E. K. Foreman
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121. Applied Engineering Statistics, Robert M. Bethea and R. Russell Rhinehart

122. Sample Size Choice: Charts for Experiments with Linear Models: Second Edition, Robert E. Odeh and
Martin Fox
123. Handbook of the Logistic Distribution, edited by N. Balakrishnan
124. Fundamentals of Biostatistical Inference, Chap T. Le
125. Correspondence Analysis Handbook, J.-P. Benzécri
126. Quadratic Forms in Random Variables: Theory and Applications, A. M. Mathai and Serge B. Provost
127. Confidence Intervals on Variance Components, Richard K. Burdick and Franklin A. Graybill
128. Biopharmaceutical Sequential Statistical Applications, edited by Karl E. Peace
129. Item Response Theory: Parameter Estimation Techniques, Frank B. Baker
130. Survey Sampling: Theory and Methods, Arijit Chaudhuri and Horst Stenger
131. Nonparametric Statistical Inference: Third Edition, Revised and Expanded, Jean Dickinson Gibbons and
Subhabrata Chakraborti
132. Bivariate Discrete Distribution, Subrahmaniam Kocherlakota and Kathleen Kocherlakota
133. Design and Analysis of Bioavailability and Bioequivalence Studies, Shein-Chung Chow and Jen-pei Liu
134. Multiple Comparisons, Selection, and Applications in Biometry, edited by Fred M. Hoppe
135. Cross-Over Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Application, David A. Ratkowsky, Marc A. Evans, and J.
Richard Alldredge
136. Introduction to Probability and Statistics: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Narayan C. Giri
137. Applied Analysis of Variance in Behavioral Science, edited by Lynne K. Edwards
138. Drug Safety Assessment in Clinical Trials, edited by Gene S. Gilbert
139. Design of Experiments: A No-Name Approach, Thomas J. Lorenzen and Virgil L. Anderson
140. Statistics in the Pharmaceutical Industry: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, edited by C. Ralph
Buncher and Jia-Yeong Tsay
141. Advanced Linear Models: Theory and Applications, Song-Gui Wang and Shein Chung Chow
142. Multistage Selection and Ranking Procedures: Second-Order Asymptotics, Nitis Mukhopadhyay and
Tumulesh K. S. Solanky
143. Statistical Design and Analysis in Pharmaceutical Science: Validation, Process Controls, and Stability,
Shein-Chung Chow and Jen-pei Liu
144. Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists: Third Edition, Revised and Expanded, Robert M. Bethea,
Benjamin S. Duran, and Thomas L. Boullion
145. Growth Curves, Anant M. Kshirsagar and William Boyce Smith
146. Statistical Bases of Reference Values in Laboratory Medicine, Eugene K. Harris and James C. Boyd
147. Randomization Tests: Third Edition, Revised and Expanded, Eugene S. Edgington
148. Practical Sampling Techniques: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Ranjan K. Som
Additional Volumes in Preparation
Multivariate Statistical Analysis, Narayan C. Giri
 Bayesian Biostatistics, edited by Donald A. Berry and Dalene Stangl
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Page i

Practical Sampling Techniques

Second Edition, Revised and Expanded

Ranjan K. Som
Consultant
New York, New York

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Page ii
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Som, Ranjan Kumar.
Practical sampling techniques / Ranjan K. Som2nd ed., rev. and expanded.
p. cm.(Statistics, textbooks and monographs; v. 148)
Rev. ed. of: A manual of sampling techniques. 1973.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8247-9676-4 (hc: alk. paper)
1. Sampling (Statistics) I. Som, Ranjan Kumar. Manual of sampling
techniques. II. Title. III. Series.
HA31.2.S65  1995
001.4'33dc20                                            95-35436
                                                                               CIP
First edition, A Manual of Sampling Techniques, ©1973 Heinemann Educational Books, London.
The publisher offers discounts on this book when ordered in bulk quantities. For more information, write to
Special Sales/Professional Marketing at the address below.
This book is printed on acid-free paper.
Copyright © 1996 by MARCEL DEKKER, INC. All Rights Reserved.
Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or
mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval
system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
MARCEL DEKKER, INC.
270 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016
Current printing (last digit):
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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Page iii

To
KANIKA, SUJATO, and BISHAKH
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Page ix
example, with a stratified single-stage design need refer only to Parts I and II for estimation purposes.
Appendix I gives the list of notations and symbols, Appendix II elements of probability and proofs of some
theorems in sampling, Appendix III some mathematical and statistical tables, Appendix IV a hypothetical
universe from which samples are drawn, Appendix V a case study of the Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-
65, and Appendix VI a review of the major multi-country survey programs in the socio-economic field,
including population, consumer expenditure, family planning, and health.
Drawing from different fields, numerous examples have been provided, as well as exercises with hints for
solution. Working out non-trivial exercises should be as important as following the textual material. A specially
constructed hypothetical universe has been used for selecting samples, which have been followed through in
order to illustrate different sampling designs. Real-life examples from large-scale inquiries have also been
provided.
The book has evolved from my association with the Indian Statistical Institute and the National Sample Survey,
since its inception in 1950, and with the United Nations (first at its regional office in Africa and then at its
headquarters in New York), and from lectures delivered at national and international statistical and demographic
courses.
A previous edition of the book was published in 1973 by Heinemann Educational Books, London, under the title
A Manual of Sampling Techniques. I was particularly touched by the gracious comments on the book by pioneers
in the field of sampling who themselves have authored seminal books on the subject such as W. Edwards
Deming, P.V. Sukhatme, and Leslie Kish, by survey directors such as Sir Claus Moser and W.R. Buckland, by
reviewers and sampling experts, and by students and survey professionals.
I owe another debt, a basic one, to Professor P.C. Mahalanobis, Director of the Indian Statistical Institute, who
had pioneered the development of statistics, including survey sampling in India since 1922 and, as Ilonorary
Statistical Adviser to the Cabinet of the Government of India, was instrumental in launching the Indian National
Survey in 1950. Murthy (1984) and C.R. Rao (1993) have reviewed Mahalanobis's contribution to statistical
development in India; I myself have written on Mahalanobis's contributions to the statistical activities of the
United Nations and the International Statistical Institute (Som, 1994). At the Indian Statistical Institute, I was
fortunate to have as my colleagues specialists in sampling theory and practice, such as A. Bhattacharyya, I.M.
Chakravarty, Nanjamma Chinnappa, A.C. Das, A.N. Ganguly, M.N. Murthy, A.S. Roy, J. Roy and V.K. Sethi, in
addition to preeminent statisticians such as C.R. Rao, M. Ganguli and D.B. Lahiri for consultation and advice.
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Page v

FOREWORD
A sample survey properly conducted, with an optimal survey design, can supply information of sufficient
accuracy useful for planning and policy purposes with great speed and low cost. It is especially useful in
countries where official statistical systems are not well developed and enough resources are not available for a
complete enumeration. It is also claimed that estimates based on sample data collected by well-trained
investigators under proper supervision, though subject to sampling errors, are more accurate than those based on
complete enumeration, which would be subject to non-sampling errors usually of a larger magnitude than the
sampling errors. It is with these ideas that the methodology of sample surveys was developed during the forties.
A major contribution to survey methodology was made by P.C. Mahalanobis and his colleagues at the Indian
Statistical Institute in designing and instituting a multipurpose National Sample Survey to collect data
periodically, at the national level, on the socio-economic-demographic characteristics of the people. In this
program, Dr. R.K. Som played an important role as a chief executive in charge of designing and conducting
large-scale demographic surveys and analyzing data. Later he became the Chief of the Population Program
Center of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and then a Special Technical Adviser on
Population at the United Nations Headquarters: he thus acquired considerable international experience in
demographic data collection and analysis.
Practical Sampling Techniques is the result of his rich and varied experience in conducting large scale sample
surveys combined with his expertise in statistical theory.
A sample survey involves a variety of operations, starting with a statement of objectives, identification of the
target universe, construction of sampling frame, choice of sampling plan, preparation of schedules, and training
of investigators and ending up with the collection and analysis of data, and reporting on survey results. Dr. Som's
manual covers all these aspects with immense detail and lively illustrations. It is, indeed, a valuable and
indispensable guide to the practitioners of sample surveys.
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Page vi
Dr. Som also tries to bring an academic touch to his book by discussing some of the theoretical aspects of sample
surveys, which should be of interest to students and others studying sampling, as well as to professional workers
from other fields who want to acquire a deeper understanding of survey methodology.
C.R. RAO
EBERLY PROFESSOR OF STATISTICS
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
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Page vii

PREFACE
Using only simple mathematics and statistics, the book aims to present the principles of scientific sampling and
to show in a practical manner how to design a sample survey and analyze the resulting data. It seeks a via media
between, on the one hand, monographs on sampling and special chapters in textbooks on statistics that set forth
the basic ideas of sampling, and, on the other hand, advanced sampling texts with detailed proofs and theory. It is
more in the nature of a manual or a handbook which attempts to systematize ideas and practices and could also
be used as a textbook for a one- or two-semester course. For an understanding of the book, the basic requirement
is a knowledge of elementary statistics (including the use of multiple subscripts and summation and product
notations) and algebra, but not of calculus.
The approach is essentially practical and the book is primarily aimed at those who are not sampling specialists
but are interested in the subject, namely undergraduate, graduate and continuing education students of statistics
and professional and research workers from other fields such as sociology, economics, agriculture, forestry,
public administration, public health, family planning, demography, psychology, and public opinion and
marketing research. For them, the book presents the basic knowledge required to allow, at a minimum,
intelligent consultation with professional sampling statisticians, and, at best, the design, implementation, and
analysis of sampling inquiries when such expert services are not easily available. The latter applies particularly
in quite a few developing countries where many professionals or researchers must work in their own subject
fields without the ready benefit of consultation with sampling experts. It is hoped that survey practitioners would
find the book useful and would know when to seek expert advice, e.g., for complex topics, such as varying
probability sampling without replacement, that are not covered here in detail.
For both types of readers, viz., students and practicing professionals, the book tries to be as complete as possible
to permit self-study. The requirements of students have been considered by including proofs of some
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Page viii
theorems of sampling and by following pedagogical methods: for the latter purpose, some repetition has been
allowed.
After an introduction to ''with and without replacement" schemes for simple random sampling, attention has been
confined mainly to sampling with replacement, which results in considerable simplicity for the presentation and
understanding of principles. The theoretical results have generally been approached from simple principles and
derived from examples, intuitive discussions and some fundamental theorems. Proofs have, however, been
supplied only for those theorems which do not require a knowledge of calculus or advanced probability, and
even these have been placed in an appendix in order not to interrupt the flow of discussions.
While remaining reasonably rigorous at a low mathematical level, the main emphasis has been not so much on
providing proofs of all the theorems and statements as on imparting an understanding of why these are true, what
makes them work and how they are applied. An effort has been made to avoid misleading generalizations, and
the theories have been tested by their usefulness and relevance in application. References to texts with advanced
theory and applications in specific fields have been given and the basis has been provided for at least a nodding
acquaintance with topics such as inverse sampling and the bootstrap and jackknife methods for estimating
sampling variances. At the same time, an attempt has been made to shield beginners from an over-exposure to
terminologies and concepts: theories have not been identified with authors, except when it simplifies references.
Inevitably, some results are more or less pulled out of the hat.
After an introductory chapter, the book is divided into five parts dealing respectively with: single-stage
sampling; stratified single-stage sampling; multi-stage sampling; stratified multi-stage sampling; and
miscellaneous topics, including errors in data and estimates; planning, execution, and analysis of surveys; and
use of computers in survey sampling.
The arrangement of the topics within each of the first four parts is such that all the aspects relating to any part are
covered. For example, Part I, "Single-stage Sampling", covers simple random sampling (with and without
replacement), ratio and regression estimators, systematic sampling, unequal probability sampling (sampling with
probability proportional to size), choice of sampling units (cluster sampling), size of sample (cost and error
considerations), and self-weighting designs.
For each type of sampling, estimating procedures are shown not only for the total and the mean of a study
variable, but also for the ratio of the totals of two study variables.
It is intended that the first four parts of the book be read in sequence. The entire book should be read for
understanding the principles and their intelligent application; at a later stage, the reader who is concerned, for
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Page x
The text for the present edition of the book has been revised and expanded with the inclusion of techniques that
are either new or have recently gained a certain currency, such as the jackknife and bootstrap methods of
variance estimation and the use of focus groups in data collection, and subjects of topical interest such as the use
of personal computers in sample surveys, internationally sponsored multi-country survey programs, and survey
considerations for some of today's concerns, such as the nutritional status of children, disability, status of
women, and HIV/AIDS infection.
Computers, particularly personal computers, have become indispensable in survey data processing, analysis and
publication and, increasingly in developed countries, in the data collection process itself. This topic is covered in
Chapter 27 and is a special feature of the book.
Internationally sponsored multi-country survey programs are in operation in a large number of developing
countries. While providing substantive results, these multi-country survey programs are also assisting in the
transfer of technology in survey sampling and microcomputer use. A review of these programs, even of the
major ones, is not available in one place and I thought that survey professionals and students would benefit from
the inclusion of such a review here.
I have not covered the general topic of foundations of survey sampling, as I consider it beyond the scope of this
book. However, for interested readers, I have given some references under "Further reading" at the end of
Chapter 1.
For readers in French and Spanish, I have given references to sampling texts in these languages.
Although most computer and software brand names have trademarks or registered trademarks, the individual
trademarks have not been listed here.
RANJAN K. SOM
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Page xi

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
My grateful thanks are due to Dr. I.M. Chakravarti, Dr. R.G. Laha, and Dr. J. Roy for permission to quote six
examples/exercises from their book, Handbook of Methods of Applied Statistics, Vol. II, Planning of Surveys and
Experiments (Wiley, 1967); to John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York for permission to quote five
examples/exercises from Sampling Techniques by W.G. Cochran (1977); an extract from the article, "Boundaries
of statistical inference," by W. Edwards Deming in New Developments in Survey Sampling (1969), edited by
Norman L. Johnson and Harry Smith, Jr.; and two exercises from Sampling of Populations: Methods and
Applications by Paul S. Levy and Stanley Lemeshow (1991); to Dover Publications, New York and the Deming
Institute for permission to quote an extract from W. Edwards Deming's Some Theory of Sampling (Wiley, 1950;
Dover, 1966); to John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, and the Deming Institute for permission to quote an extract
from W. Edwards Deming's Sample Design in Business Research (1960); to the Government of Ethiopia for
permission to use the data of Example 15.1; to the American Statistical Association to quote an extract and Fig.
I.1 from its publication, What Is a Survey? by R. Ferber, P. Sheatsley, A. Turner, and J. Waksberg; to Longman
& Green on behalf of the Literary Executor of the late R.A. Fisher and Frank Yates for permission to reprint two
tables from their book, Statistical Tables for the Biological, Agricultural and Medical Research (6th ed., 1973);
to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations for permission to reproduce (in an adapted form)
a figure from the book, Quality of Statistical Data, by S.S. Zarkovich); to the Academic Press for permission to
quote an exercise from Probability in Science and Engineering (1967) by J. Hajek and V. Dupac; to the
Scarecrow Press for permission to quote an example and a table from The Mathematical Theory of Sampling
(1956) by W.A. Hendricks; to the German Statistical Office for permission to quote as an exercise and an
example from the article, "Organization and functioning of the Micro-Census in the Federal Republic of
Germany," by L. Herbergger in Population Data and Use of Computers with Special Reference to Population
Research (1971), German Foundation for Developing
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Countries, Berlin, and Federal Statistical Office, Wiesbaden; to the Government of India for two tables from
National Sample Survey reports; to Professor Leslie Kish for permission to quote extracts from his book, Survey
Sampling (Wiley, 1965), and two articles; to the Statistical Publishing Society, Calcutta, for permission to
reproduce three exercises from Sampling Theory and Methods (1967) by M.N. Murthy; to Dr. C.R. Rao for
permission to reproduce an exercise from his book, Advanced Statistical Methods in Biometric Research
(Hafner, 1973); to the Iowa State University for permission to reproduce an example from Statistical Methods
(3rd ed., 1967) by G.W. Snedecor and W.G. Cochran; to the Literary Executor of the late M.R. Sampford for
permission to reproduce an example from his book An Introduction to Sampling Theory (Oliver & Boyd, 1962);
to Dr. P.V. Sukhatme, Dr. Sashikala Sukhatme, and Dr. C. Asok for permission to reproduce three examples
from the book Sampling Theory of Surveys with Applications (3rd ed., 1984) by P.V. Sukhatme, B.V. Sukhatme,
Sashikala Sukhatme, and C. Asok, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, and Indian Society of Agricultural
Statistics, New Delhi; to the United Nations for permission to reproduce (in adapted forms) some examples from
A Short Manual on Sampling, Volume I, and extensive extracts from Preparation of Sample Survey Reports,
Provisional Issue; to the U.S. Bureau of the Census for permission to quote a table from its publication,
Technical Paper No. 2; and to Dr. A. Weber for permission to quote two examples from his mimeographed
lecture notes Les Methods de Sondage (1967); and to Dr. Frank Yates and Longman Green for permission to cite
some examples from Sampling Methods for Censuses and Surveys (4th ed., 1981) by Frank Yates (London,
Edwin Arnold, and New York, Oxford University Press.)
I benefitted greatly from the comments and suggestions of the following on some draft chapters of the first
edition of the book: Prof. B.C. Brookes (Reader in Information Studies, University of London); Dr. W.A.
Ericson (Professor and Chairman, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan); Mr. Benjamin Gura
(Deputy Chief, International Statistical Programs Center), Mr. Leo Solomon (Chief, Research & Analysis
Branch), Dr. B.J. Tepping (Chief, Center for Research for Measurement Methods), Dr. Peter Robert Ohs
(Mathematical Statistician), and Mr. David Bateman (Sampling Statistician) at the U.S. Bureau of the Census;
Mr. C.M.H. Morojele (Regional Statistician for Africa, U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization); Sir Claus A.
Moser (Director, Central Statistical Office, U.K.); Dr. M.N. Murthy (Lecturer in Statistical Methods, United
Nation Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific); Mr. M.D. Palekar (Chief, Special Projects Section, U.N.
Statistical Office); Mr. John C. Rumford (Demographic Survey Adviser to the Government of Liberia) at the
U.S. Agency for International Development; Mr. Jacques Royer (Director, Projections
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and Programming Branch, U.N. Economic Commission for Europe); Dr. H. Schubnell (Director, Statistical
Office, Federal Republic of Germany); Dr. S.R. Sen (Executive Director for India, World Bank); Dr. Egon
Szabady (President, Demographic Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Dr. R. Zasepa (Professor,
Central School of Planning and Statistics, Poland); and Mr. A.S. Roy (Sampling Statistician, Indian Statistical
Institute), who had read the final draft of the first edition and offered many constructive suggestions. The late
Patrick J. Loftus, Director of the U.N. Statistical Office (1963-1972), encouraged me in the study and wrote a
foreword to the first edition: I remain deeply grateful to him.
For providing material and helpful discussions on the new material of the present edition, I am grateful to: Mr.
William P. Butz, Associate Director, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and his colleagues, especially Dr. Eduardo
Arriaga, Dr. J. Howard Bryant, Mr. Bob Bush, Mr. Lawrence S. Cahoon, Ms. Cathleen Chamberlain, Mr. Evan
Davey, Dr. Peter D. Johnson, Dr. David Megill, Mr. Stan Rolark, Ms. Karen Stanecki, Mr. Michael Stroot, and
Mr. Bob Tiari at the U.S. Bureau of the Census; Mr. Richard M. Cornelius (Deputy Coordinator for Population,
U.S. Agency for International Development); Mr. William Seltzer (Director), Mr. Parmeet Singh and Mr.
Anthony G. Turner (respectively Coordinator and Sampling Specialist, National Household Survey Capability
Programme), Ms. Mary Chamie (Statistician), Mr. Ramesh Chanda (Special Technical Advisor on Computer
Methods and Applications), Mr. Carlos Ellis (Population Statistics Data Processing Specialist), Mr. Patrick
Gerland (Demographic Software Specialist), Dr. Anis Maitra (Inter-regional Adviser), Mr. James T. Maxwell
(Programme Officer), Mr. Sam Suharto (Population Census Methods Specialist), Dr. Sirageldin Suliman (Civil
Registration and Vital Statistics Specialist), and Ms. Joann Vanek (Statistician) at the U.N. Statistical Division;
Dr. Brian Williams (Head, Department of Public Health Medicine, University of Sheffield Medical School,
U.K.; Consultant to the U.N. Statistical Division); Dr. M. Nizamuddin (Chief, Population Data, Policy and
Research Branch), Mr. Abdul-Muneim Abu Nuwar (Country Director to Syria), Mr. Hedi Jemiai (Deputy Chief,
Division of Arab States and Europe), Dr. Atef Khalifa (Director, Country Support Team in Amman, Jordan) and
Dr. K.V. Ramachandran (Demographic Specialist, Country Support Team in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia) at the U.N.
Population Fund; Ms. Birgitta Bucht (Assistant Director) and Mr. C. Stephen Baldwin (Chief, Population
Projects Section), U.N. Population Division; Dr. Beverley A. Carlson (Senior Advisor on Population and
Statistics, UNICEF); Mr. James Cheyne (Programme Officer) and Dr. Gilles Desve (Consultant) at the World
Health Organization; Mr. Timothy Merchant (Senior Economist/Statistician) at the World Bank; Dr. Jeremiah
Sullivan and Ms. Thanh N. Le at the Demographic &
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Health Surveys; Mr. W. Parker Mauldin, Professor Emeritus, Rockefeller University; Dr. Moni Nag and Dr.
Louise Kantrow of the Population Council; Prof. P.K. Bannerjee (Secretary, Calcutta Statistical Association);
Dr. S.K. Chakrabarty (Retired Director of the Bureau of Applied Economics and Statistics, Government of West
Bengal), Mr. B.R. Panesar (Retired Statistician, Indian Statistical Institute), Mr. S.K. Nath (Joint Director,
National Sample Survey, Government of India), Dr. Sambhu Nath Sen (Retired Secretary, Ministry of
Agriculture, Government of Bihar, India), and Prof. N. Balakrishnan (Associate Professor of Mathematics &
Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada).
For supplying references to recent sampling books in French and Spanish, I am grateful to Mr. J.L. Bodin, Chief
of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, National Institute of Statistics and Economic
Studies (INSEE), France, and to Prof. J.L. Sanchez-Crespo, University of Madrid.
My special thanks to Ms. Debbie Iscoe for preparing an excellent cameraready copy of the manuscript with all
the equations and tables.
For reviewing selected new chapters or sections in the second edition, I am indebted to the following: Dr. Tore
Dalenius (Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University); Dr. A.S. Hedayat (Professor of Mathematical
Statistics and Computer Science, University of Illinois); Dr. John F. Kantner (Professor Emeritus, Johns Hopkins
University); Dr. Richard Maisel (Professor of Sociology, New York University); Dr. Zvia Napthali (Adjunct
Professor of Statistics, New York University); Dr. Robert K. Merton (Professor Emeritus, Columbia University);
and Dr. Thomas N. Pullum (Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin). My sister, Dr.
Prantika Som, Scientist at the Medical Department of the Brookhaven National Laboratory, advised me on the
medical aspects of epidemiological surveys. I am also grateful to the reviewers of Marcel Dekker, Inc., for
suggesting various improvements to the draft of the book. The responsibility for any errors of omission or
commission in the book is of course entirely mine.
For writing the Foreword to this edition of the book, I am most grateful to Dr. C.R. Rao, Sc.D., F.R.S., Past
President of the International Statistical Institute, former Director of the Indian Statistical Institute, and currently
the Eberly Professor of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University.
Finally, I have great pleasure in expressing my thanks to Mr. Russell Dekker, Vice-President and Editor in Chief,
Marcel Dekker, Inc., for encouraging me in updating and expanding the second edition of the book, and Mr.
Brad Benedict, Assistant Production Editor, for his help and guidance in the book's production.
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Chapter 10. Stratified Simple Random Sampling 157

Introduction - Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their variances - Estimation
of proportion of units - Ratio method of estimation: Combined and separate ratio
estimators - Ratio of ratio estimators of totals of two study variables - Gain due to
stratification - Stratification after sampling - Further reading Exercises
Chapter 11. Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 189
Introduction - Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their variances - Different
schemes of selection in different strata - Special cases of crop surveys - Ratio
method of estimation: Combined and separate ratio estimators - Ratio of ratio
estimators of totals of two study variables - Gain due to stratification - Further
reading- Exercise
Chapter 12. Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 207
Introduction - Principles of stratification - Allocation of sample size to different
strata - Formation of strata - Multiple stratification - Determination of the total
sample size - Examples Further reading - Exercises
Chapter 13. Self-weighting Designs in Stratified Single-stage Sampling 223
Introduction - Stratified simple random sampling - Stratified varying probability
sampling - Fractional values of nh - Selfweighting designs at the tabulation stage -
Further reading
Part III: Multi-stage Sampling
Chapter 14. Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 229
Introduction - Reasons for multi-stage sampling - Structure of a multi-stage
design - Fundamental theorems in multi-stage sampling - Setting of confidence
limits - Further reading

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A textbook, it has been said, should be dedicated to one's children. My wife, Kanika, along with my sons, Sujato
and Bishakh, provided continuing support. To them, I once again dedicate this book.
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CONTENTS

Foreword v
Preface vii
Acknowledgments xi
Guide to Readers xxiii
List of Abbreviations xxvii
Chapter 1. Basic Concepts of Sampling 1
Introduction - Complete enumeration or sample - Advantages of sampling -
Limitations of sampling - Relationship between a complete enumeration and a
sample - Probability versus purposive samples - Terms and definitions -
Sampling frames - Types of probability sampling - Universe parameters -
Sample estimators - Criteria of estimators - Mean square error - Principal steps
in a sample survey - Symbols and notations - Further reading Exercises
Part I: Single-stage Sampling
Chapter 2. Simple Random Sampling 29
Introduction - Characteristics of the universe - Simple random sampling -
Sampling without replacement - Sampling with replacement - Important results -
Fundamental theorems - Standard errors of estimators and setting of confidence
limits - Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their variances - Use of random
sample numbers - Examples - Estimation for sub-universes - Estimation of
proportion of units - Method of random groups for estimating variances and
covariances - Further reading - Exercises

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Chapter 3. Ratio and Regression Estimators 71

Introduction - Ratio method of estimation - Regression method of estimation -
Further reading - Exercises
Chapter 4. Systematic Sampling 81
Introduction - Linear and circular systematic sampling - Sample mean and
variance - Estimation of variance - Further reading Exercise
Chapter 5. Varying Probability Sampling: Sampling with Probability Proportional to
Size 91
Introduction - Selection of one unit with probability proportional to size -
Estimating procedures - Procedures for the selection of sample units with pps -
Special cases of crop surveys Ratio method of estimation - Further reading -
Exercises
Chapter 6. Choice of Sampling Units: Cluster Sampling 115
Introduction - Simple random sampling - Discussion of the results - Notes -
Further reading - Exercises
Chapter 7. Size of Sample: Cost and Error 125
Introduction - Simple random sampling - Estimation of variance - Cost
considerations - Balance of cost and error - Cluster sampling - General remarks -
Further reading - Exercises
Chapter 8. Self-weighting Designs 141
Introduction - Simple random sampling - Varying probability sampling -
Rounding off of multipliers
Part II: Stratified Single-stage Sampling
Chapter 9. Stratified Sampling: Introduction 147
Introduction - Reasons for stratification - Fundamental theorems in stratified
sampling - Setting of confidence limits - Selection of two units from each stratum
- Further reading

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Chapter 15. Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 237

Introduction - Two-stage srs: Estimation of totals, means, ratios, and their
variances - Two-stage srs: Estimation for sub-universes - Two-stage srs:
Estimation of proportion of units Two-stage srs: Ratio method of estimation -
Three-stage srs: Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their variances - Three-
stage srs: Estimation for sub-universes - Three-stage srs: Estimation of proportion
of units - Three-stage srs: Ratio method of estimation - Further reading -
Exercises
Chapter 16. Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 271
Introduction - General estimating equations: Two- and three-stage pps designs -
Two-stage design with pps and srs - Three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs -
Special cases of crop surveys - Further reading - Exercises
Chapter 17. Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Stages 289
Introduction - Two-stage design - Three-stage design - Further reading- Exercises
Chapter 18. Self-weighting Designs in Multi-stage Sampling 301
Introduction - General case - Two-stage sample design with pps and srs - Opinion
and marketing research - Further reading
Part IV: Stratified Multi-stage Sampling
Chapter 19. Stratified Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 309
Introduction - Reasons for stratified multi-stage sampling - Fundamental theorems
in stratified multi-stage sampling - Further reading
Chapter 20. Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 317
Introduction - Stratified two-stage srs: Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their
variances - Stratified three-stage srs Miscellaneous notes - Further reading -
Exercises

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Chapter 21. Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 355

Introduction - Stratified two- and three-stage pps designs - Stratified two-stage
design with pps and srs - Stratified three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs -
Special cases of crop surveys Further reading - Exercises
Chapter 22. Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata and Stages 379
Introduction - Optimum allocations - Gain due to stratification - Further reading
Chapter 23. Self-weighting Designs in Stratified Multi-stage Sampling 381
Introduction - General case - Stratified two-stage design with pps and srs -
Opinion and marketing research - Self-weighting versus optimum design - Further
reading
Part V: Miscellaneous Topics
Chapter 24. Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 389
Introduction - Multi-phase sampling - Sampling on successive occasions and
panel sampling - Estimation of mobile populations - Inverse sampling -
Estimation of rare events - Interpenetrating network of sub-samples - Simplified
methods of variance computation - Other methods of estimating sampling
variance: bootstrap and jackknife - Method of collapsed strata - Controlled
selection - The use of Bayes' theorem in sampling - Use of focus groups -
Randomized response technique - Line sampling and lattice sampling - Surveys
on disability - Surveys on nutritional status of children - Surveys on the status of
women - Estimation of HIV/AIDS infection
Chapter 25. Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 423
Introduction - Coverage and content errors - Classification of errors in data and
estimates - Simple statistical model - More complex models - Measurement of
response errors - Control of non-sampling errors - Evaluation and control of
sampling versus non-sampling errors - Evaluation and adjustment for nonresponse
- Concluding remarks - Further reading - Exercises

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Chapter 26. Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 459

Introduction - Objectives of the survey - Legal basis - Publicity and cooperation
of respondents - Budget and cost control - Project management - Administrative
organization - Coordination with other inquiries - Cartographic (mapping) work -
Tabulation programs - Methods of data collection - Questionnaire preparation -
Survey design - Pilot inquiries and pre-tests Selection and training of enumerators
- Supervision - Processing of data - Preparation of reports - Further reading -
Exercise
Chapter 27. The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 485
Introduction - General issues - Sample selection - Data collection - Data editing
and data entry - Combined data collection, editing and entry - Data tabulation -
Variance estimation Data dissemination - Integrated systems of data processing
Computer-assisted survey information system - Statistical analysis - Spreadsheets
and graphics - Geographical information systems - Desktop publishing -
Concluding remarks - Further reading
Appendix I
List of notations and symbols 503
Appendix II
Elements of probability and proofs of some theorems in sampling 505
Appendix III
Statistical tables 529
Appendix IV
Hypothetical universe of 600 households in 30 villages in 3 States 535
Appendix V
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 539
Appendix VI
Multi-country survey programs 559
References 575
Answers to Exercises 605
Index of Names and Organizations 611
Index of Subjects 619

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Guide to Readers

Topics which may be considered too advanced or too detailed may be de­
ferred at the first reading. Some advanced topics are mentioned below:

pps systematic sampling (section 5.4.3); Stratified simple ran­

dom sampling - Ratio of ratio estimators of two study vari­
ables (section 10.5), Gain due to stratification (section 10.6),
and Stratification after sampling (section 10.7); Stratified vary­
ing probability sampling - Ratio of ratio estimators of two
study variables (section 11.6) and Gain due to stratification
(section 11.7); Multi-stage simple random sampling - Three-
stage srs - estimation of totals, means, ratios, and their variances
(section 15.6) and Three-stage srs: estimation of sub-universes
(section 15.7); Multi-stage varying probability sampling -
Three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs (section 16.4) and Spe­
cial cases of crop surveys (section 16.5); Size of sample and
allocations to different stages in multi-stage sampling
- Three-stage designs (section 17.3); Stratified three-stage srs
(section 20.3); Inverse sampling (section 24.5); Estimation of
rare events (section 24.6); Simplified methods of variance com­
putation (section 24.8); Other methods of estimating sampling
variances: Bootstrap and Jackknife (section 24.9); Methods of
collapsed strata (section 24.10); Controlled Selection (section
24.11); Use of Bayes’ theorem in sampling (section 24.12); Ran­
domized response technique (section 24.14); Line and lattice
sampling (section 24.15); More complex models (section 25.5 );
Elements of probability and proofs of some theorems in sam­
pling (Appendix II); and Case Study: Indian National Sample
Survey, 1964-5 (Appendix V).

Other topics which may be of interest to some readers only, such as

agricultural surveys and opinion and marketing research, may be skipped
by other readers.

xxiii
XXIV Guide to Readers

In classroom teaching, the choice of topics will of course depend on

the views of the teacher and the discipline under which sampling is being
taught; topics such as the extension of two-stage sampling to three-stage
sampling may be indicated briefly and the miscellaneous topics (Part V) ei­
ther omitted (with the exception of chapter 25 on errors and biases in data
and estimates, which may be condensed) or covered in an introductory
course. Furthermore, the teacher might wish to supplement the examples
and exercises with those relevant to the discipline: it would also be instruc­
tive for students, under the guidance of the teacher, to design a sample
survey and analyze the resulting data.
The following chapters and sections could comprise a one-semester course
on sampling techniques:

Chapters 1-2 and 4-9; sections 10.1 10.3, 12.1 12.3.6, 12.4, 12.6;
Chapters 13-14; sections 15.1-15.5; sections 17.1-17.2.3; Chap­
ters 18-19; sections 20.1-20.2.9; Chapters 22-23; sections 24.1-
24.5; Chapters 25 and 27; Appendices I, III and IV.

Use of Dedicated Software, Spreadsheet Software, and Scientific

Calculators
A large set of actual survey data should best be processed with dedicated
software for estimation of totals and their variances in stratified
multi-stage designs, such as CENVAR of the U.S. Bureau of the Cen­
sus, whose purpose is to provide estimates and their variances (see section
27.10.1).
Smaller sets of data, including those given in the book, could be worked
with spreadsheet software, such as Lotus 1-2-3, Quattro Pro, Excel or
As-Easy-As, and very small sets of data could be handled by handheld
scientific calculators.
In using spreadsheet software, after entering the y values, the mean
could be obtained by the function AVG. The function STDS in Quattro Pro
and the function STDEV in Excel give the sample standard deviation per
unit, which must be multiplied by ^/(1 — in simple random sampling
without replacement (srswor) and by ^/(1/n) in simple random sampling
with replacement (srswr) to obtain an estimate of the standard error of the
mean, where n is the size of the sample, N that of the “universe”, and f
the sampling fraction = n/N.
A still smaller set of data such as in Exercises 2.1 and 2.2 could also be
analyzed quicker on a handheld scientific calculator with statistical func­
tions. Note again that the value of <rri_1 obtained there is the same as that
obtained by the STDS function in Quattro Pro and STDEV in Excel and
therefore should be multiplied by >^(1 — /)/n) in srswor and by ^/(l/n)
 Guide to Readers XXV

in srswr to obtain the standard error of the mean. In using these software
programs or the scientific calculator, note the definition of the functions
used. The table below shows the functions in four spreadsheet software
programs and Radio Shack scientific calculators:

Function/Comm Lotus 1-2-3 Quattro Pro Excel for As-easy-As Radio Shack
V5/W1N V5/D0S v5/WIN V5/DOS scientific
or WIN calculator

Number of COUNT COUNT COUNT n

items

Sum (or total) SUM SUM SUM SUM *

E
[Eq. (2.1)]

Arithmetic AVG AVG AVERAGE AVG X

Mean
[Eq- (2.2)]

Raw sum of SUMSQ SUMSQ * 2

E
*
squares

Sum of SUMPRODUCT SUMPRODUCT SUMPRODUCT

products of two
variables!

Population VAR VAR VARP VAR

variance per
unit
[Eq. (2.3)]

Sample VARS VARS VAR

estimate of
variance per
unit
[Eq. (2.6)]

Population S.D. STD STD STDEVP (Tn

per unit!

Sample S.D. STDS STDS STDEV CTn-l

per unit§

Standard error SEMEAN

of sample
mean
[STDSA/n]

Equation numbers in square brackets refer to those in the text.

*E
1
y.2-E^
or
! The (positive) square root of VAR (Lotus 1-2-3 or Quattro Pro) or VARP (Excel).
§ The (positive) square root of VARS (Lotus 1-2-3 or Quattro Pro) or VAR (Excel).
List of Abbreviations

The abbreviations used for sampling techniques, journals, organizations,

programs, and computer-related terminologies and other abbreviations re­
lated to sampling techniques are listed below.

Sampling techniques

pps Probability proportional to size sampling

ppswr Probability proportional to size sampling with replacement
RRT Randomized response technique
srs Simple random sample or simple random sampling
srswor Simple random sampling without replacement
srswr Simple random sampling with replacement

Computer-related terminologies

CAC Computer-assisted coding

CADE Computer-assisted data entry and coding
CADI Computer-assisted data input
CAPI Computer-assisted personal interview
CASIC Computer-assisted Survey Information System,
U.S. Bureau of the Census
CATI Computer-assisted telephone interview
GIS Geographical Information System
IMPS Integrated Microcomputer Processing System,
U.S. Bureau of the Census
ISSA Integrated System of Survey Analysis, DHS
OCR Optical character recognition
OMR Optical mark reader
PAPI Pencil-and-paper interview
PC Personal computer (or microcomputer)
PDE Prepared data entry
TDE/VRE Touch-tone data entry/voice recognition entry

xxvii
xxviii Abbreviations

Journals

AMS Annals of Mathematical Statistics

BISI Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute/Bulletin
de l’Institut Internationale de Statistique
IMSB Institute for Mathematical Statistics Bulletin
ISR International Statistical Review
JASA Journal of the American Statistical Association
JMR Journal of Marketing Research
JOS Journal of Official Statistics, Stockholm
JRSS Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, London
PHR Public Health Reports
POQ Public Opinion Quarterly
RISI Review of the International Statistical Institute
SFP Studies in Family Planning
WHSQ World Health Statistics Quarterly

Organizations

ASA American Statistical Association

ECA U.N. Economic Commission for Africa
ESCAP U.N. Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
HMSO Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, U.K.
IASS International Association of Survey Statisticians
ILO International Labour Organisation
INSEE Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes
Economiques, Paris
IRD Institute for Resource Development
ISI International Statistical Institute
IUSSP International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
NCBS Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics
NIDI Netherlands Inter-university Demographic Institute
NCHS National Center for Health Statistics (U.S.)
U.N. (or UN) United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFPA United Nations Population Fund
UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund
USAID United States Agency for International Development
WHO World Health Organization
Abbreviations xxix

Programs

AGFUND Arab Gulf Programme for the United Nations

Development Organizations
CPS Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys
DHS Demographic and Health Survey(s)
EPI Expanded Programme on Immunization, WHO/UNICEF
FPS Family Planning Surveys
GCHS Gulf Child Health Survey
LSMS Living Standards Measurement Study, World Bank
NHSCP National Household Survey Capability Programme, U.N.
NSS The National Sample Survey, India
PAPCHILD Pan-Arab Project for Child Development
SDA Social Dimensions of Adjustment Program, World Bank
WFS World Fertility Survey
CHAPTER 1

Basic Concepts of Sampling

1.1 Introduction

Sampling is the process by which inference is made to the whole by exam­

ining only a part. It is woven into the fabric of our personal and public
lives. In some cultures, a couple enters into a marriage partnership on the
basis of a short courtship. With a single grain of rice, an Asian village
housewife tests if all the rice in the pot has boiled; from a cup of tea, a tea­
taster determines the quality of the brand of tea; medicine dosages are set
on sampling investigations; and a sample of moon rocks provides scientists
with information on the origin of the moon.
As a part of the information-collection and decision-making process,
sample surveys are conducted on different aspects of life, culture, and sci­
ence. The purpose of sampling is to provide various types of statistical
information of a qualitative or quantitative nature about the whole by ex­
amining a few selected units; the sampling method is the scientific proce­
dure of selecting those sampling units which would provide the required
estimates with associated margins of uncertainty, arising from examining
only a part and not the whole.
The monograph, What Is A Survey?, published by the American Sta­
tistical Association, lists some surveys in the United States; the list illus­
trates the wide variety of issues with which surveys deal (Ferber, Sheatsley,
Turner, and Waksberg):

1. The U.S. Department of Agriculture conducted a survey to find out

how poor people use food stamps.

2. Major TV networks rely on surveys to tell them how many and what
types of people are watching their programs.

3. Auto manufacturers use surveys to find out how satisfied people are

1
2 Chapter 1

with their cars.

4. The U.S. Bureau of the Census conducts a survey every month to
obtain information on employment and unemployment in the nation.
5. The National Center for Health Statistics sponsors a survey every
year to determine how much money people are spending for different
types of medical care.

6. Local housing authorities make surveys to ascertain satisfaction of

people in public housing with their living accommodations.

7. The Illinois Board of Higher Education surveys the interest of Illinois

residents in adult education.
8. Local transportation authorities conduct surveys to acquire informa­
tion on people’s commuting and travel habits.

9. Magazines and trade journals utilize surveys to find out what their
subscribers are reading.

10. Surveys are used to ascertain what sort of people use our national
parks and other recreation facilities.
World-wide, an indication of the scope of sampling in different coun­
tries may be obtained from the following partial listing from the latest
(1982) issue of the United Nations report, Sample Surveys of Current In­
terest, relating to surveys conducted during 1977-79: a survey of crime
victimization in Hong Kong; surveys of industries in Ethiopia, India, In­
donesia, and the U.S.A.; family/household budget/income and expenditure
surveys in Belgium, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Hungary, Indonesia, Malawi,
Norway, Sri Lanka, Sweden, the U.S.A., and Zimbabwe; health survey in
Australia, France, Netherlands, Thailand, and the U.S.A.; fisheries sur­
veys in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Tufalu, the U.S.A., and Zimbabwe; popula-
tion/demographic/fertility and family planning surveys in Cyprus, Egypt,
Indonesia, Iran, Morocco, Nepal, Pakistan, Panama, Papua and New Guinea,
Peru, Philippines, Singapore, Spain, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Trinidad and To­
bago, the U.S.A., Yugoslavia, and Zimbabwe.

1.2 Complete enumeration or sample

Leaving aside the role of sampling in personal lives and the design of exper­
imentation under controlled laboratory or field conditions, there arises in
every country a demand for statistical information in two ways: first, when
the data obtained from routine administrative and other sources have to
Basic Concepts of Sampling 3

be analyzed speedily, and second, and more frequently, when accurate data
are not available from conventional sources. Consider, for example, the
problem of how to conduct an inquiry into family budgets by employing
field interviewers. Three alternatives seem possible for collecting data:

1. a complete enumeration of all the units of observation (commonly

known as the census), such as all the families in the area of the inquiry,
using the best available enumerators;

2. a complete enumeration of all the units by relatively less competent

enumerators; and

3. a sample of a selected number of units by the best available enumer­

ators.

In reality, especially for large parts of the world for even a limited num­
ber of inquiries, and for all the countries for an inquiry into every facet
of community life, an adequate number of competent staff are simply not
available. In practice, therefore, to enumerate fully all the units and still
make use of the best available staff, the enumeration has to be spread over
a long period. But the situation may change over time: we might then be
measuring different things.
In general, therefore, only two alternatives remain, namely, a complete
enumeration of all the units by less efficient enumerators and a sample of
units with more efficient staff. The advantages of sampling (see Section
1.3) are such that the latter method is usually chosen, although errors can
arise as a result of generalizing about the whole from the surveyed part.
There are situations where a complete enumeration would be essential,
and if situations do not permit this, efforts should be made to establish it
as soon as possible. Examples are the counting of population for census
purposes, income tax returns and a voters’ list.
Conversely, sampling is the only recourse in destructive tests such as
testing of the life of electric bulbs, the effectiveness of explosives, and hema­
tological testing.
In practice, sampling is often used to evaluate or augment the census
process (see section 1.5 below). Post-enumeration sample surveys are one
means of assessing the coverage and content errors of population censuses,
almost universally used in all countries of the world; for the evaluation,
particularly through post-enumeration field surveys, of the 1990 population
censuses in France, see Coeffic (1993), and in the U.S., see Hogan (1993),
and of the 1991 population census of China, see Zongming and Weimin
(1993).
4 Chapter 1

1.3 Advantages of sampling

Sample surveys have these potential advantages over a complete enumer­

ation - greater economy, shorter time-lag, greater scope, higher
quality of work, and actual appraisal of reliability.
A sample requires relatively better resources for designing and executing
it adequately and so the cost per unit of observation is higher in a sample
than in a complete enumeration. But the total cost of a sample will be
much less than that of a complete enumeration covering the same items of
inquiry. One airline found, for example, that inter-company settlements for
the preparation of tickets due to other air carriers could be estimated quite
accurately, within 0.07 per cent, for a 10 per cent sample of the total of
about 100,000 documents per month and at a considerable saving of funds
(Slonim, chapter XVII). In 1994 about 115 million income tax returns were
expected to be received by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service: it would be
unpractical to audit all these. The IRS now audits fewer than one in 100,
selected by computer programs designed to spot likely problems, with a
“progressive” sampling fraction ranging from one half of one per cent for
returns in the range $25,000-$50,000 to 5 per cent for returns reporting
more than $100,000.
With a smaller number of observations, it is also possible to provide
results much faster than in a complete enumeration.
Sampling has a greater scope than a complete enumeration regarding
the variety of information by virtue of its flexibility and adaptability and
the possibility of studying the interrelations of various factors.
Data obtained from a complete enumeration or a sample are subject
to various types of errors and biases, the magnitude of which depends on
the particular survey procedure: this aspect is covered in greater detail in
Chapter 25. However, if the same survey procedure is followed in both a
sample and a complete enumeration, the accuracy of a single observation
will be the same; but with a comparatively small scale of operations, a
sample survey makes it possible to adopt a superior survey procedure by
exercising better control over the collection and processing of data, by em­
ploying better staff and providing them with intensive training and better
equipment, and in interview surveys by employing in-depth interviews. Un­
der suitable conditions - and this is one of the main objectives of sampling
- more accurate data can be provided by a sample than by a complete
enumeration.
For example, the Current Population Survey, conducted by the U.S.
Bureau of the Census, produced, in April 1950, a more accurate count
of the labor force in the U.S.A, than did the Population Census of April
1950. Comparisons made through a case-by-case matched study with the
Basic Concepts of Sampling 5

sample returns, and individual comparisons made with the special sam­
ple interviews taken by the survey enumerators soon after the date of the
census enumeration, revealed significant net differences in the labor force
participation rates and the number unemployed between the census and
the sample. The sample indicated about 2| million more persons in the
labor force than the census and half a million more unemployed. These dif­
ferences appeared to occur because the marginal classifications were more
adequately identified in the sample than in the census, mainly because of
the type of enumerators and their training and supervision; the census enu­
merators, with their necessarily limited training on labor force problems,
were apparently less effective in identifying marginal labor force groups
(Hansen and Pritzker, 1956). Further studies made at the U.S. Bureau of
the Census have shown that because of the response biases of a substantial
order in difficult items such as occupation, industry, work status, income,
and education, the amount lost by collecting such items for a sample of 25
per cent instead of a complete census was far less than one might assume,
even for very small areas. These considerations, plus those of economies
and timeliness of results, led to the adoption, for the first time, in the 1960
census of a 25 per cent sample of households as the basic procedure for such
information (Hansen and Tepping, 1969).
To be useful, a sample must be scientifically designed and conducted.
A classic example of a biased sample is the ill-fitted Literary Digest poll of
the 1936 U.S. presidential election, where a mammoth sample of ten mil­
lion individuals was taken. But the sample was obtained from automobile
registration lists, telephone directories and similar sources and only 20 per
cent of the mail ballots were returned; both these factors resulted in a final
sample biased heavily in favor of more literate and affluent individuals, with
political affiliations generally different from the rest: the poll erred by the
huge margin of 19 per cent in predicting votes for Franklin D. Roosevelt,
when he won by a 20 per cent majority. The failure of the 1948 polls for the
U.S. presidential election, in which Harry S. Truman was elected, is mainly
explained by changes in the preferences of the people polled between the
time they were interviewed and the time they had voted, but could be partly
attributed to the quota system of sampling that was deficient in organized
labor. In the 1970 British General Election also, pollsters performed very
poorly when they predicted the return of the Labour Party.

1.4 Limitations of sampling

When basic information is required for every unit, obviously a complete

enumeration has to be undertaken. Errors due to sampling also tend to
be high for small administrative areas (but on this point see the preceding
6 Chapter 1

section) or for some cross-tabulations where the number of sample obser­

vations falling in a certain cell may be very small.

1.5 Relationship between a complete enumeration and a sample

Almost invariably a complete enumeration of population, housing and farms

provides the frame (such as set of enumeration areas) from which the sample
can be drawn in the first instance. In addition, the information obtained
about the units from a complete enumeration, even if out of date, can be
used to provide supplementary information with a view to improving the
efficiency of sample designs.
Sampling is also used as an integral part of a complete enumeration,
e.g., of population, housing, and farms in the following operations: tests
of census procedures; enumeration of items in addition to those for which
universal coverage is required; evaluation through post-enumerative field
checks; quality control of data processing; advance tabulation of selected
topics; extending the scope of analysis, such as that of the interrelations
of various factors, for which results are required only for large areas and
for a country as a whole; and for enumerating difficult items which may
require the use of special techniques that are costly or time-consuming.
For such purposes, sampling is often used in conjunction with the census
of population in most countries of the world.
Sampling and complete enumeration are thus complementary and, in
general, not competitive. For example, in areas where routine systems of
data collection and analysis do not exist or are defective and early establish­
ment and operation of such systems are not feasible, the required data and
analysis for population programming could be obtained from integrated
sample surveys where the interrelations between the demographic, social
and economic factors are covered. For such programming at the local level,
rough estimates could often be adequate; but at the stage of implementa­
tion, detailed data at these local levels (obtained only through a complete
enumeration) would be required and would necessarily be secured.

1.6 Probability versus purposive samples

When we talk of a random sample, most often we mean a haphazard sam­

ple, the selection of the constituent units of which is not underpinned by
probability theory. Scientifically, a survey is called a probability sample
(and also sometimes, a random sample) when the method of its selection is
Basic Concepts of Sampling 7

based on the theory of probability. In order to provide a valid estimate of an

unknown value along with a measure of its reliability, a probability sample
must be used. The advantage of sampling referred to in the preceding
section accrue only from a probability sample.
Only a probability sample, in addition to providing valid estimates,
can provide measures of the reliability of these estimates by indicating the
extent of error due to sampling a part, and not the whole, and can also set
limits within which the unknown value that is being estimated from the
sample data is expected to lie with a given probability, were all the units
to be completely enumerated using the same survey procedure. With the
required information, it is also possible to design a sample that would yield
data of maximum reliability at a given cost or vice versa.
Note that we are talking of the reliability, and not the accuracy of es­
timates: the distinction between the two terms is explained in Chapter 25
on errors and biases in data and estimates.
In addition, a probability sample, especially designed and using specific
techniques, can provide estimates of errors and biases other than those due
to samples, that affect both a sample and a complete enumeration, such as
the response or observational errors, the differential bias of enumerators,
errors arising from incomplete samples, processing errors, etc. These are
detailed in Chapter 25.
A sample selected by a non-random method is known as a non-random
sample, with such a sample it is not possible to measure the degree of reli­
ability of the sample results. Examples are purposive samples (selected by
some purposive method and therefore subject to biases of personal selec­
tion), and quota samples (usually of human beings, in which each enumer­
ator is instructed to collect information from the “quota” of the assigned
number of individuals of either sex, and belonging to a certain age group,
social class, etc. but the selection of the sample of individuals is left to the
enumerator’s choice); in quota sampling, errors of frame and non-response
are not recognized. There still remain, especially in opinion polls and mar­
keting research, the vestige of purposive and quota sampling, but their
use is decreasing and is to be discouraged. This is not to say that non­
random samples cannot be used for some tests of procedure, such as the
pre-testing of questionnaires; one particular type of non-probability sample
- focus groups - has recently gained certain currency (see section 24.13).
But wherever quantitative measures are required that can also provide sci­
entific and continuing basis for planning inquiries of a related nature, a
probability sample must be used.
In what follows, we consider only probability samples, except for “focus
groups” (in section 24.13).
8 Chapter 1

1.7 Terms and definitions

An elementary unit, or simply a unit, is an element or group of elements on

which information is required. Thus persons, families, households, farms,
etc. are examples of units. A recording unit is an element or group of
elements for which information is required. In an inquiry, if information
is required on sex and age of individuals, then individuals constitute the
recording unit; but if information is required on family size, the family is
the recording unit. A unit of analysis is the unit for which analysis is made.
In a family budget inquiry, the units of analysis might be the persons in
the family or all the families in a certain expenditure group.

The universe (also called population, but we shall not use this term in
order to avoid a possible confusion with the population of human beings) is
the collection of all the units of a specified type defined over a given space
and time. The universe may be divided into a number of sub-universes.
Thus in a country-wide inquiry into family budgets, all the families in the
country, defined in a certain manner, would constitute the universe. The
sub-universe might consist of the totality of families living in rural or urban
areas or of families with incomes below and above a certain level.

The universe may be finite, that is, it may consist of a finite number of
elements. Almost all sample surveys deal with finite universes, but there
are some advantages in considering a sample as having been obtained from
an infinite universe. This is so when the universe is very large in relation
to the sample size, or when the sampling plan is such that a finite universe
is turned into an infinite one: the latter procedure is ensured by sampling
with replacement that will be explained later.

A characteristic of the units which may take any of the values of a

specified set with a specific relative frequency or probability for the different
units is called a random variable (or a variate). If such a characteristic
is to be studies on the basis of information obtained through an inquiry,
the variable is termed study variable. Of course, in an inquiry there will
be more than one study variable. In a family budget survey, per family
and per capita expenditure on food and other items are examples of two
study variables. An ancillary variable is a variable which, although not a
subject of study of a particular inquiry, is one on which information can be
collected that may help in providing, for a study variable, estimators with
better approximation to the unknown true value. Thus, in a demographic
inquiry, the ancillary information might be the previous census population
for the sample areas.
Basic Concepts of Sampling 9

1.8 Sampling frames

For drawing a sample from the universe, a frame of all the units in the
universe with proper identification should be available. This frame may
consist either of a list of the units or of a map of areas, in case a sample of
areas is to be selected. The frame should be accurate, free from omissions
and duplications, adequate and up-to-date, and the units should be identi­
fied without ambiguity. Supplementary information available for the field
covered by the frame may also be of value in improving the sample design.
Two obvious examples of frames are lists of households (and persons)
enumerated in a population census, and a map of areas of a country showing
boundaries of area units.
The first, however attractive, suffers from two limitations, namely of
possible under- or over-enumeration of households (and population) in cen­
suses and of changes in the population due to births, deaths, and migration,
unless the sample is conducted simultaneously with the census. There are
remedial methods for these difficulties. One, for example, consists of se­
lecting a sample of area units, such as villages and urban blocks, from the
frame available from a population census and listing anew the households
residing in these sample areas at the time of survey-enumeration: these
households may then be completely enumerated with regard to the study
variables or a sub-sample of households might be drawn for the inquiry.

1.9 Types of probability sampling

If, from the universe, a sample is taken in such a manner that the sample
selected has the same a priori chance of selection as any other sample of the
same size, it is known as simple random sampling. This is the most direct
method of sampling but has most often to be modified in order to make
better approximations to the unknown universe values, or to obviate the
lack of accurate and up-to-date frames, to simplify the selection procedure.
One variant is systematic sampling. In this procedure, if we are to draw,
say, a five per cent sample from a universe, a random number is first chosen
between 1 and (1/0.05 =) 20; suppose that the selected random number is
12. Then the 12th, (12 4- 20 =) 32nd, (32 4- 20 =) 52nd etc. units would
constitute the systematic sample. This method is often used because of its
simplicity.
Another method is to use the available information on an ancillary vari­
able in drawing the sample units. If the sampling frame does not contain
any information on the universe units except their identification, there will
be no reason to prefer one unit to another for inclusion in the sample, i.e.,
all the units would have the same chance of selection; and this is what hap­
10 Chapter 1

pens with simple random and systematic samples. However, if information

is available on an ancillary variable that is known to have a high degree of
positive correlation with the study variable, the information on the ancil­
lary variable may be used to draw the units in such a manner that different
units get different probabilities of selection with a view to obtaining more
reliable estimates. This is known as sampling with varying probability (of
which sampling with probability proportional to size is the most common
case). In a survey of commercial establishments, for example, if, while
preparing the list of all the commercial establishments, information is also
collected on their size (either number of persons employed or the value of
production), then a sample of establishments could be drawn such that each
establishment has an unequal, but known, a priori probability of selection
which is proportional to size.
Before drawing a sample, the units of the universe could be sub-divided
into different sub-universes or strata and a sample drawn from each stra­
tum according to one or more of the three procedures - simple random,
systematic, and varying probability sampling. This is known as stratified
sampling. Thus in a family budge inquiry, the families constituting the uni­
verse could be sub-divided into a number of strata depending on residence
in different areas, or into a number of strata according to the size of the
family if such information is available prior to sampling; different systems of
stratification might be used in a sampling plan. Stratified sampling is used
when separate estimates are required for the different strata or to obtain
results with less variability.
So far we have considered single-stage sampling. The sample might,
however, be drawn in a number of stages. Thus in a household inquiry where
a list of the existing households is not available, a sample of geographical
areas, such as urban blocks or villages, for which lists are available (first-
stage units), may first be chosen, then a list made of all the households
currently residing in the selected sample (urban blocks or villages), and, at
the second-stage, a sample of households selected from the lists of current
households (second-stage units); this is an example of a two-stage sample
design. In practice, multi-stage samples are frequently used because an
accurate and up-to-date frame is not often available.
The above types of sampling may be used singly or in combination. For
example, there may be unstratified single-stage sampling, stratified
single-stage sampling, unstratified multi-stage sampling, and, the
most common of all, stratified multi-stage sampling. Other types of
sampling, such as multi-phase sampling, will be discussed later.
We shall use the term “sampling plan” to mean the set of rules or
specifications for selecting the sample, the term “sample design” to cover in
addition the method of estimation, and “survey design” cover sample design
Basic Concepts of Sampling 11

and other aspects of the survey, e.g., choice and training of enumerators,
tabulation plans, etc.

1.10 Universe parameters

Let the finite universe comprise N units, and let us denote by Yi the value of
a study variable for the ¿th unit (i = 1,2,...,TV). For example, in a family
budget inquiry, where the unit is the family, one study variable may be the
total family size, when Yi would denote the size of the ¿th family; another
study variable may be the total family income in a specified reference period
(e.g., the thirty days preceding the date of inquiry), when Yj would denote
the value of the income of the ¿th family; and so on.
A universe parameter (or simply a parameter) is a function of the fre­
quency values of the study variable. Some important parameters are de­
scribed below.
In general, we would be interested in the universe total and the universe
mean of the values of the study variable. The total of the values Yi is
denoted by Y,
N
Y1 + Y2 + •■■ + yN = ^yi=Y (1.1)
1=1

and the universe mean is the universe total divided by the number of uni­
verse units and denoted by Y,

Y = Y/N (1.2)
In addition, interest centers also on the variability of the units in the
universe, for the variability of any measure computed from the sample data
depends on it. This variability of the values of the study variable in the
universe is measured by the mean of the squared deviations of the values
from the mean, and is called the universe variance per unit; it is denoted
by (Ty,
N
<r2y=^Yi~V^/N (L3)
2=1

The positive square root of cry is termed the universe standard deviation
per unit.

Note: In the notation for the universe variance per unit, ay, the subscript Y is
included to denote that the universe variance refers to a particular study variable;
in later sections, the subscripts are used in a somewhat different way.
12 Chapter 1

Note that both the universe mean and the universe standard deviation
are in the same unit of measurement; for example, in a family budget
inquiry, if the study variable is the total family income, then the universe
mean and the universe standard deviation (per unit) would be expressed in
the same currency, be it dollars, pounds, pesetas, or rupees.
To obtain a measure of the universe variability independent of the unit
of measurement, the universe standard deviation is divided by the universe
mean; the ratio is called the universe coefficient of variation and denoted
by CV,
CVy=(Ty/Y (1.4)
It is often expressed as a percentage. The square of the CV is called
the relative variance. With the CV it becomes possible to compare the
variability of different items, e.g., the variability of family consumption in
different countries and time.
Another universe measure of interest is the ratio of the totals or means
of the values of two study variables, e.g., the proportion of income that is
spent on food in a family budget inquiry; it is denoted by R,
R=Y/X=Y/X (1.5)
where X is the universe total and X the universe mean of another study
variable, similarly defined as Y and Y. Let the universe standard variable
of the second study variable be denoted by ax-
The universe covariance between two study variables is obtained on
taking the mean of the products of deviations from their respective means,
and is denoted by ayx,
n
<rYX = £(Yi-Y)(Xi-X)/N (16)
i~ 1

The universe linear (product-moment) correlation coefficient between

two study variables is obtained on dividing the product of the two respective
standard deviations into the covariance and is denoted by pyx,

PYX = ^Yxl^Y^X (IT)

Note that the correlation coefficient is a pure number. It varies from — 1
(perfect negative linear correlation) through zero (no linear correlation) to
+ 1 (perfect positive linear correlation).
If N' of the total N units possess a certain attribute or belong to a
certain category (such as number of households with cable TV), the universe
proportion P of the number of such units is
P = N'/N (1.8)
Basic Concepts of Sampling 13

In addition to the parameters already defined, there are other types of

parameters. The values of the universe parameters are generally unknown
and the primary objective of a sampling inquiry is to obtain estimates of
these parameters along with measures of the reliability of the estimates
obtained from the data of a sample.

1.11 Sample estimators

An estimator is a rule or method of estimating a universe parameter. Usu­

ally expressed as a function of the sample values, it is called a sample
estimator (or simply, an estimator). Note that there can be more than one
estimator for the same universe parameter. The particular value yielded
by the sample estimator for a given sample is called a sample estimate (or
simply, an estimate).
Let a simple random sample of n units be selected from the universe of
N units, the value of a study variable for the ¿th sample unit being denoted
by yi (? = 1,2,..., n). The ¿th sample unit may be any of the N universe
units. The sample mean y, defined by
n
У = (ш+?/2 + ■■■Jryn)/n-^y/n (1.9)
i= l

is an estimator of the universe mean Y.

A sample estimator of the universe total Y, defined in equation (1.1), is

y = Ny (1.10)

In general, the estimates obtained from different samples of the same size
and taken from the same universe, following the same survey procedure, will
vary among themselves and will only by accident coincide with the universe
value being estimated, even if the same survey procedure is followed in both
the sample and the complete enumeration. This is simply because a part,
and not the whole, of the universe is covered in a sample. This variability
due to sampling is measured by the sampling variance of the estimator.
For example, the sampling variance of the sample mean in sampling with
replacement is

(т|=<4/п (1.11)

In general, of course, <jy will not be known, and the sampling variance
of the sample estimator has to be estimated from the sample data. For
a simple random sample of n units, the sample estimator of the universe
14 Chapter 1

variance per unit is

sy= 52^ ~ i1-12)

i=l

If sampling is made with replacement, so that the same universe unit

can occur more than once in the sample, or if the universe is considered
infinite, then an estimator of the variance of the sample mean y in simple
random sampling is

4 = sy/n (113)

Sample estimators for other universe parameters can also be defined.

The sample estimator of the universe covariance of two study variables is
simple random sample of n units is
n
- æ)/(« - !) (114)
1

An estimator of the universe ratio R of the totals of two study variable,

defined in equation (1.5), is the ratio of the estimators of the two respective
totals, namely

r~ylx — ylx (1.15)

and an estimator of the universe correlation coefficient pyx is the sample

correlation coefficient

Pyx — SyX/SySx (1.16)

1.12 Criteria of estimators

Several criteria have been established for the sample estimators. One is un­
biasedness. A sample estimator is said to be unbiased if the average value
of the sample estimates for all possible samples of the same size is math­
ematically identical with the value of the universe parameter; this average
over all possible samples of the same size is also known as the mathematical
expectation of, or the (mathematically) expected survey value. In the exam­
ples above, the sample estimators ÿ and x are unbiased estimators of the
respective universe parameters Y and X respectively; this will be shown in
Chapter 2. That a sample estimator is unbiased does not, of course, mean
that the estimate obtained from a particular sample will necessarily be the
same as the universe value.
Basic Concepts of Sampling 15

In general, a sample estimator which is obtained by taking a ratio of

two sample estimators (which themselves might be unbiased) is not unbi­
ased. Thus the sample ratio of the totals of two study variables, defined in
equation (1.15), is generally biased.
The second criterion is that of consistency. An estimator is said to be
consistent if it tends to the universe value with increasing sample size; an
alternative definition for a finite universe is whether the universe value is
obtained, when the universe frequencies are substituted in the formula for
the sample estimator. The sample mean, sample total, the sample ratio,
the sample correlation coefficients etc., defined above, are all consistent es­
timators. An example of an inconsistent estimator is the following: suppose
that from the data of a simple random sample of size n, the ratios of the
values of two study variables are computed, namely,

Ti = yi/xi (117)

and a mean is taken of these ratios, namely,

n
r = ^ri/n (118)
i= 1

The mean of the ratios, r, is not a consistent estimator of the universe

ratio R, defined in equation (1.5), for in sampling without replacement,
if the sample is ultimately enlarged to include all the universe units, the
sample estimator r will take the value
N

1=1

which will not be the same as the universe value, namely,

N i n
(1.5)
1=1 ' 1=1

except in the trivial case of all the ratios Yi/Xi being the same.
An unbiased estimator is not necessarily consistent or vice versa; but
in the general cases that we shall consider, an unbiased estimator can be
taken to consistent. Also, if a consistent estimator is biased, its bias will
decrease with sample size.
The third criterion is that of precision or efficiency. We shall consider
here the concept of relative efficiency and relative precision. Of two
estimators, based on the same sample size, for the same universe parameter,
one is said to be more efficient than the other when its sampling variance is
16 Chapter 1

smaller than the other’s. The precision of the estimator t relative to that
of t' is defined as
Precision (t,t') = (119)
The efficiency of the estimator t relative to that of t' is defined as
Efficiency (/,/') = MSEv/MSEt (1.20)
MSEt denoting the mean square error defined in the next section. For
unbiased estimators, precision and efficiency are equivalent.
When, as is common, the universe values of the variances are not avail­
able, the sample estimators are substituted in the above expressions.
It can be shown that in large samples (simple random), the variance of
the median as an estimator of the universe mean Y is | Tvcy/n (where % is
the ratio of the circumference of a circle to that of its diameter = 3.14159 ...,
or 3.1416, approximately), so that the efficiency of the mean relative to the
median is, from equations (1 11) and (1.20), is

or 1.57 approximately, i.e., for simple random samples of the same size,
the sample mean is 57 per cent more efficient than the sample median in
estimating the universe mean.
A relative concept is that of a minimum variance estimator. A well-
known inequality in mathematical statistics (Cramer-Rao inequality) states
that the variance of an estimator of Y cannot be smaller than ciyln. But
as the sample mean itself has sampling variance ayln in simple random
sampling (with replacement), we can say that under this sampling plan,
the sample mean is an unbiased, consistent, minimum variance estimator
of the universe mean.

1.13 Mean square error

If the sample estimator t has a mathematical expectation T", different from

the universal parameter T which it (the sample estimator /) seeks to mea­
sure, the sampling variability of the estimator t around its mathematical
expectation T' is given by the sampling variance <r2; but the variability of
the estimator t around the true value T is given by the mean square error
(defined in section 25.4.3). The sampling variance and the mean square
error of t are connected by the relation:
Mean square error = Sampling variance + (Bias)2
MSEt = (T2 + B2 (121)
Basic Concepts of Sampling 17

where Bt — T1 — T \s the bias in the estimator t.

1.14 Principal steps in a sample survey

The principal steps that should be taken in planning and executing a sample
survey and analyzing and publishing the results could be grouped under the
following topics (the broad topics have been illustrated in Figure 1.1, from
the American Statistical Association’s booklet, What Is A Survey?):

1. planning and preparatory work - define major objectives; establish

legal basis; create steering and technical committees; prepare first
operational plans; estimate budget and equipment requirements; de­
termine sponsoring agencies (national and external); obtain funds;
order equipment; finalize sampling plans; conduct pre-tests; develop
and conduct publicity campaigns.

2. questionnaire design and tabulation and analysis plans - develop ques­

tionnaire design and tabulation and analysis plans; print question­
naires, training documents and control sheets.

3. sampling frames - update or prepare census field maps and listing of

housing units in a household survey.

4. training - arrange national and external fellowships in survey sam­

pling, data processing, analysis, and (desktop) publishing.

5. sampling design - prepare sampling plan.

6. pre-test and pilot studies - plan, conduct and analyze pre-tests and
pilot studies to determine suitable topics for investigation, respon­
dent types, suitability of sampling plan and estimation of sampling
estimates and variances to help in finalizing sampling plan.

7. enumeration - plan procedure, develop materials; develop training

programs; establish field offices; distribute materials to field; recruit
and train enumerators and supervisors.

8. conduct sample enumeration.

9. prepare preliminary estimates of major items.

10. survey data processing - plan and test electronic data processing pro­
cedures and programs; acquire and test equipment; receive and check
in competed questionnaires; data editing an entry; data tabulation.
 Figure 1.1: Stages of a sample survey (from Ferber el al.).

QO
Basic Concepts of Sampling 19

11. analysis and publication - analysis of data; preparation of technical

and administrative reports; computation of sampling variances and
indicators of non-sampling errors.

12. dissemination - seminars to discuss finding and their economic and

social implications; recommend follow-up action.

The above-mentioned tasks are not all sequential (i.e., they do not nec­
essarily follow one another): some, such as the preparation of the ques­
tionnaire (and its testing) and the recruitment of enumerators (and their
training) are fully linked; others are partly linked; and several others, such
as the construction of sampling frames and the preparation of training
material for the enumerators may follow simultaneously. It would be most
helpful to show these tasks in a Gantt or Program Evaluation and Re­
view Technique (PERT) Chart so that the tasks could be monitored,
evaluated, and corrective action taken. A project management computer
software program, such as TimeLine (by Symantec Corporation) or Project
(by Microsoft Corporation), should be installed to facilitate this.
The design and conduct of a sample survey require more technical ex­
pertise than that for a census. One principal recommendation of the United
Nations should be heeded (U.N. 1947):

“A sample survey should be carried out only under the technical guid­
ance of professional statisticians not only with adequate knowledge of
sampling theory but also with actual experience in sampling practice,
and with the help of a properly trained filed and computing staff.”

1.15 Symbols and notations

Capital (and sometimes small) letters are used to denote the universe values
of the study and ancillary variables (such as Yi, Y2,.. ., Yn ; Xi,X2,...,Xn),
and small letters those in the sample (such as y\, y2,... , yn ; and x^, X2, • • •,
xn). N is the universe size (i.e., the total number of units in the universe),
and n the sample size. Universe parameters are denoted by capital or Greek
letters (such as Y, the universe mean; cr2, the universe variance per unit; p,
the universe correlation coefficient of two variables), and the sample estima­
tors by small letters or with circumflex or the hat Q on the corresponding
universe parameters (such as ÿ, the sample mean, as estimator of Y; s2,
sample estimator for <r2; and p, sample estimator for p).
£2 stands for summation (either for the universe or for the sample), and
the number of terms to be summed is indicated by the letters at the bottom
20 Chapter 1

and the top of the summation sign. Thus,

N NN N
Y, + V2 + ■■■ + Yv = = £> = £y, = £ Y, = £y, =£y,
1=1 1 I i

the last five terms being used when there is no risk of ambiguity.
Double and triple summations may often be required. Thus, consider N
(universe) first-stage units, the ¿th first-stage unit (i = 1,2,..., TV) contain­
ing Mi second-stage units. Let the value of the study variable for the jth
second-stage unit (j = 1,2,..., in the ¿th first-stage unit be denoted
by Yij. Then the sum of the values of the study variable for any first-stage
and for all first stage units can be represented as follows:
First-stage units Sum of the values of the study variable of the
second-stage units

1 Yll+Yn+'+YlM, =E7=,iyi;

2 Y21 + Y2i + ■ ■ ■ + Y.Ma = E”1, Y2j

Yi + Yi2 + ■ + Ym, = E"'i Yy

N Yvi + Yv? + ■ ■ ■ + Y.v.w,-.- — Yv>

Grand Total Tn + ■ • • + YiMi 4- V21 + • • • + Y2M2 + • ■ • +

+ Yni + • • • + Ynmn = Yij

In addition, the following notations will often be used for sums of squares
and products. yj will be called the “raw/’ or “crude” sum of squares of
the yi values and the sum of squares of deviations from the mean
n
SSyi = -y)2 /™ = i>2yi-ny2
n n
(1.22)
Basic Concepts of Sampling 21

will be termed the corrected sum of squares. The choice of the particular
expression for SSy{ in (1.22) will depend on computational convenience.
Similarly, ytXi will be called the “raw” or “crude” sum of products
of the yi and Xi values and the sum of products of deviations from the
respective means

SPyiXi
n n
^i

n n

52 yiXi
n
(1.23)

the corrected sum of products. Thus, the sample variance is by

n

sy - 52^’ ~ y^Kn - !) = SSyi/(n - 1) (1.24)

and the sample covariance given by

Syx 52^»’ - №i - x)/(n - 1)

SPyiXi/(n - 1) (125)
]"I (capital pi) stands for product. Thus,
N N
Yi x Y2 x • ■ • x YN = U Yi or simply, Yi.
1=1

Sub- and super-scripts are added, as necessary. A list of notations and

symbols used in this book is given in Appendix I.

Further reading
References have been made only to the names of the authors (and to the year of
publication when the author has more than one publication referenced); complete
references are given at the end of the book. Some of the books mentioned in the
first edition, as well as some published since then, are now out of print; however,
I have retained references to the important ones among them, in the hope that
they may still be available in university libraries.
For a history of sampling, see Bellhouse (1988a). For an introduction to
the ideas of scientific sampling, see the books by Kalton (1983); Scheaffer,
22 Chapter 1

Mendenhall, and Ott; Slonim (a popular account); Stuart; Sudman (who gives
in chapter 1 of his book examples of some interesting sample surveys conducted
in the U.S.A.); Warwick and Linninger; and special chapters on sampling in the
book by Moser and Kalton and in textbooks on statistics (with generally the
same mathematical level as this book), such as those by Blalock; Chakravarty,
Laha and Roy; Hajek and Dupac; P.O. Johnson; Snedecor and Cochran; Tippet;
and Yule and Kendall, and an article by Dalenius (1988).
A Short Manual on Sampling (1972) by the U.N., Sampling Lectures (1968) by
the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and Tore Dalenius’s Elements of Survey Sampling
(1985) would also be valuable introductory reading. Barnett’s Sample Survey
Principles and Methods (1991) contains basic sampling techniques and provides
many instructive examples and exercises: it would be a good preliminary read to
this book.
For readers interested in sampling theory, texts by the following authors
are recommended as follow-up:
Chaudhuri and Stenger; Hajek; Hansen et al. (1953), vol. II; Hedayat
and Sinha; Kish (1965); Murthy (1967); Sukhatme et al. (1984); and
Yates.
For readers interested in the general topic of foundations of survey sam­
pling, including statistical inference in sampling from finite populations,
see articles, starting with Godambe (1955) and other relevant articles, in New De­
velopments in Survey Sampling, edited by Norman L. Johnson and Harry Smith,
Jr. (1969), Foundations of Statistical Inference, edited by V.P. Godambe and
D.A. Sprott (1971), and Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 6, Sampling, edited by P.R.
Krishnaiah and C.R. Rao (1988) and by T.M.F. Smith (1984). These collections
and Contributions to Survey Sampling and Applied Statistics, edited by H.A.
David (1978), and Survey Sampling and Measurement, edited by K. Namboodiri
(1978), contain a number of important articles on sampling theory.
For relevant issues in statistical designs for research, see Kish (1987).
For definition of statistical terms, see A Dictionary of Statistical Terms by
Kendall and Buckland: I have relied on it heavily.
For readers interested in sampling methods and their application in
specific subject fields, the following are recommended:
Sampling methods (general): Cochran; Hansen et al. (1953),
vol. I (especially relating to sample surveys undertaken by U.S.
Government agencies); Kish (1965).
Agriculture, forestry and fishery: FAO (1989); Hendricks (1956);
Jessen; Panse (1954); Sampford; Singh and Chaudhary; Sukhatme
et al. (1984); Yates.
Auditing and accounting: T.F.M. Smith (1976); Trueblood and
Cyert; Vance; Vance and Neter; Welburn.
Biological and geological studies: S.K. Thompson.
Business research: Deming (1960).
Basic Concepts of Sampling 23

Demography surveys: Marks et al.; Som (1973); UN (1971b) and

reports of the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and
Health Surveys (see Appendix VI).
Health and morbidity: Levy and Lemeshaw; U.S. National Cen­
ter for Health Statistics (1970a, 1970b, and 1976).
Household and social surveys: Ackoff; P.G. Gray and Corlett;
Jones; Moser and Kalton; U.N. (1984b, 1993a).
Opinion surveys and marketing research: Blankenship; Bochtler
and Lowenbein; Cantril; Dutka and Frankel; Gallup; Parten;
Payne; Stephan and McCarthy; Velu and Naidu.
Social research: Fienberg and Tanur; Moser and Kalton (the British
experience); Sudman.
Telephone surveys: Collins; Groves et al.; Waksberg (1978); Velu
and Naidu.
Traffic surveys: Kish (1965); Rosander.
Rosander has also given the design and implementation of probability sam­
ples in the U.S.A, in the following fields: clerical operations; work sampling in
a statistics and data processing division, an office and large work area, and in
communications; post office parcel posts; freight car shortages; household goods
shipments; shipment routing practices; truck terminal operators; and a legal pro­
ceeding.
For readers of French, books by the following authors are available as fur­
ther reading: Ardilly (1994), Deroo and Dussaix (1980), Desabie (1962), Dussaix
and Grosbras (1993), Gourieuroux et al. (1987), Grosbras (1987), Morin (1993),
Thionet (1953), Thionet (1958), and Yates (an earlier edition translated into
French).
Readers of Spanish are referred to the books by Sanchez-Crespo (1979) and
Azorin and Sanchez-Crespo (1986) and the Spanish translation of the first edition
of P. V. Sukhatme’s book, Sampling Theory of Surveys with Applications (1954).

Note: In following the literature on sampling, one difficulty stems from the dif­
ferences in concepts and notations followed by different authors. It is suggested
that the reader first gets acquainted with the concepts and notations used in this
book, and then, while consulting other references, notes the differences in concepts
and notations. For example, some authors (including myself) use the «/-notation
for the (first) study variable while others use the z-notation. In dealing with
single-stage sampling, all the authors cited use N and n to denote respectively
the number of units in the universe and in the sample; for two-stage sampling,
some authors (including myself) employ Mt and mt to denote respectively the
universe and the sample number of second-stage units in the ith first-stage unit
(i = 1, 2,. . . , N for the universe, and i = 1,2,. . ., n for the sample), but some
others denote by M and m the universe and the sample number of first-stage
units and by Nt and nt the universe and sample numbers of second-stage units
in the ith first stage unit. Again, in two-stage sampling, some authors use the
24 Chapter 1

term “size” to mean the number of second-stage units it (the first-stage unit)
contains, but I and others have used the term “size” in a more general sense of
the value of an ancillary variable for selection of units with probability propor­
tional to “size” (pps), which can then be used also in single-stage pps sampling; a
special case of “size” is, of course, the number of second-stage (or for that matter
any subsequent-stage) units. Note also that some authors introduce multi-stage
sampling under “cluster sampling.”

As further reading to Chapter 1, the following are recommended:

Cochran, chapter 1; Deming (1950), chapter 1 (1960), chapter 1;
Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and II, chapters 1-3; Kish (1965),
chapters 1 and 2; Murthy (1967), chapters 1 and 2; Sukhatme et al.
(1984), chapter 1; Yates, chapters 1-4.

Exercises

1. In which of the following situations would you prefer a sample survey to a

complete enumeration?
(a) Determination of the average number of match sticks in a box, and
the proportion that actually light, from a carton containing a gross
of match-boxes.
(b) A survey of tuberculosis in the islands of Seychelles (estimated 1990
population of 70,000).
(c) A longitudinal fertility inquiry in the U.S.A. (In a longitudinal survey,
used especially in sociological and medical investigation, a sample of
individuals or other units are observed at intervals over a period of
time, so as to study their development as individuals. It may be con­
trasted with a cross-sectional survey, in which a sample of individuals
in various stages of development, e.g., children of different ages, are
observed at one point in time.)
(d) Preparation of voters lists.
(e) Output of steel in a country.
(f) Hand-loom cloth production in India.
(g) Production of coffee in Ethiopia. (Note: coffee grows in a wild state
in some parts of Ethiopia.)
(h) A survey of leisure time use by students in your university.
2. In family living and budget surveys, it is possible to use the questionnaire
and interview method or the account book method (the “diary method”), or
a combination of the two. What are the main advantages and disadvantages
of each method?
Basic Concepts of Sampling 25

(Hint: The “diary” method is not feasible in pre-literate or semi­

literate societies. Although, recall errors should not be present
if records are kept daily, the very fact that records are being
kept may also change habits and patterns.)
3. A survey is required to determine the sex ratio of children (under fifteen
years). Four procedures are suggested:
(a) each boy in a sample of boys is asked to state the number of brothers
and sisters he has;
(b) each girl is a sample of girls is asked to state the number of sisters
and brothers she has;
(c) a sample of children is taken, and the number of boys and girls in the
sample counted;
(d) a sample of families are asked to give the number of boys and girls.
Why would procedures (a) and (b) give biased results, over-representation
of boys in one, and the over-representation of girls in the other? (C.R. Rao,
1952, Misc. Problem 20, adapted.)
(Hint: In procedures (a) and (b) a single child and siblings con­
sisting of the opposite sex would not be represented at all. Note
that children in institutions are to be sampled too. Account has
also to be taken of multiple reporting by siblings.)
4. Comment on the following extract from the proceedings of the Seminar
on African Demography, Paris, 1959 (International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population, 1960):
"... suggested that under some conditions the principles of prob­
ability sampling might be sacrificed in the interest of obtain­
ing properly qualified and reliable information in the villages to
be included in the program [of study of African Demography).
These villages would then provide merely a “purpose sample”;
but the extent to which they are representative of large popu­
lation could be measured, at least partially, by comparing their
characteristics in other respects on which information can be
obtained with those of the whole population of the region.”
(Hints: “The suggestion is a hazardous one. ...Gini and Gal­
vani (1929) did precisely what... suggested and they published
their results to tell statisticians that the suggestion is a hazard.
They selected and rejected counties in Italy until they found a
sample that matched seven characteristics for the whole coun­
try, only to find that the sample broke down completely on all
other characteristics”: personal communication from Dr. W.E.
Deming in 1970. Note also the observations by Yates (1981, sec­
tion 3.13): “Gini and Galvani (1929) selected a sample from the
Italian census data of 1921 which consisted of all the returns of
26 Chapter 1

29 out of the 214 circondari into which the country is divided,

using seven control characters. Agreement of the average val­
ues of the other characters in the sample and population was
poor, and that of the frequency-distribution of such characters
was even worse. The real weakness here is the use of excessively
large units, though even with smaller units the use of purpo­
sive selection without rigorous rules of selection is always liable
to give unsatisfactory results. There is, moreover, no means of
judging its reliability. For these reasons, purposive selection has
ceased to be extensively used and in modern sampling work it
has largely been replaced by more thorough application of the
principles of stratification, etc.”).
PART I

SINGLE-STAGE
SAMPLING
CHAPTER 2

Simple Random Sampling

2.1 Introduction

In this chapter we shall consider simple random sampling without strat­

ification of the universe and without the selection of the sample units in
different stages; unstratified single-stage simple random sampling is some­
times known as unrestricted simple random sampling. In the next chapter
will be shown the use of ancillary information in improving the efficiency of
estimators obtained from a simple random sample. We shall often use the
abbreviation “srs” for “simple random sample” or “simple random sam­
pling” •
We shall first consider the problem of sampling the universe of six house­
holds a, b, c, d, e, and f, with respective sizes (number of persons) 8, 6, 3,
5, 4, and 4. This is a hypothetical example, for, with such a small universe,
it would be normal to enumerate all the units completely rather than take
a sample. However, we shall use it to illustrate the principles.

2.2 Characteristics of the universe

We note first some characteristics of the universe. The total number of

units, N = 6; if by Yi we denote the size of the ¿th household (i —
1,2,..., N), the total number of persons in the universe is
N
Y= = 8 + 64-3 + 5 + 4 + 4 = 30 (2.1)
i= l

The average household size (number of persons per household) is

N
Ÿ = Y/N = 52 Yi/^ = 30/6 = 5 (2.2)

29
30 Chapter 2

Table 2.1: Sizes (numbers of persons) of a hypothetical universe of six

households

Household Size Y-Y (y.-y)2

t K

a 8 3 9
b 6 1 1
c 3 -2 4
d 5 0 0
e 4 -1 1
f 4 -1 1

Total 30 0 16
Mean Y=5 0 a2 = 2.6

The variance per unit of the universe is defined as

N
<T2 = - Y)2!N = 16/6 = 2.6 (2.3)

The computations are shown in Table 2.1. The standard deviation per unit
of the universe is
1.6330

The coefficient of variation of the universe is defined as

CV = a/Y = 1.6330/5
— 0.3266 or 32.66 per cent (2.4)

Note: The characteristics of the universe will not be known in general, and the
main objective in sample surveys is to estimate these characteristics.

2.3 Simple random sampling

If the sampling frame consists of an identifiable list of all the units in the
universe, but without any information on the value (or magnitude) of the
Simple Random Sampling 31

variable under study (the “study variable”) or of any ancillary variable, and
if we are sampling only one unit from the universe, then a priori there would
be no reason to choose one unit over another, i.e. all the units should have
the sample chance of being selected. Similarly, if we are selecting n (> 1)
units from the universe of N units, then each combination of the n units
should have the same chance of selection as every other combination: such
a sample is termed a simple random sample of n units.

Note: In simple random sampling, the probability that a universe unit will be
selected at any given draw is the same as that at the first draw, namely, 1/N,
and the probability that the specific unit is included in the sample of n units is
n/N-, see Appendix II, section A2.3.2, notes 1 and 2.

If we draw a simple random sample such that no unit occurs more than
once in the sample, sampling is said to be without replacement, if a unit can
occur more than once in the sample, it is said to be with replacement. We
shall illustrate these with the hypothetical universe of six households given
in Table 2.1, the objective being to estimate the average size of household
from samples of different sizes.

2.4 Sampling without replacement

2.4.1 Mean and variance for the hypothetical universe

If we sample only one unit from the universe of six households without
replacement, the six possible samples of size 1 are the six households in the
universe. The estimator of the household size of the universe from each
sample will be the household size of the sample unit itself; the average of
the size estimators is 5, the same value as the universe household size. But
we cannot compute the sampling variance from one sample in this case, as
the sample consists of one unit only.
If we draw samples of two units each from the universe, such that no
unit occurs more than once in the sample, and if we disregard the order of
drawing so that the same combination of two units such as (ab, ba) is not
repeated, we shall have — 15 combinations: these are written down
in Table 2.2. For each of the 15 combinations (samples) we compute the
following measures, as estimators of the corresponding universe values:

n
Estimator of the universe mean: sample mean y — E I/i/n (2.5)
i=i

n
Estimator of variance per unit: = E(»< - - !) (2-6)
32 Chapter 2

Table 2.2: All possible samples of size 2 drawn without replacement from
the universe of Table 2.1

Sample Sample Total size Mean size s32y * s2$

y
no. units yi + y2 * (y)j

1 ab 14 7.0 2.0 0.6667

2 ac 11 5.5 12.5 4.1667
3 ad 13 6.5 4.5 1.5000
4 ae 12 6.0 8.0 2.6667
5 af 12 6.0 8.0 2.6667
6 be 9 4.5 4.5 1.5000
7 bd 11 5.5 0.5 0.1667
8 be 10 5.0 2.0 0.6667
9 bf 10 5.0 2.0 0.6667
10 cd 8 4.0 2.0 0.6667
11 ce 7 3.5 0.5 0.1667
12 cf 7 3.5 0.5 0.1667
13 de 9 4.5 0.5 0.1667
14 df 9 4.5 0.5 0.1667
15 ef 8 4.0 0 0

Total - - 75.0 48.0 16.0000

Mean - - 5.0 3.2 1.06

* yi and yz are the values of the two units included in the sample.
t y = |(l/i +1/2) from equation (2.5).
Sy = ^(yi — yz}2 from equation (2.8).
§ Sjf = (1 — /)3y/n = j s2y from equation (2.7), as n = 2, N = 6, and n/N = |.

Estimator of variance of sample mean: = 5^(1 — /)/n (2.7)

where n is the sample size, y, (i = 1,2,, n) is the value of the ¿th unit
of the study variable included in the sample, and f = n/N is the sampling
fraction.
Note the following points:
1. For n = 2, the formula for s2 is simplified to
4 = |(ÿl ~ W2>2
(2.8)
Simple Random Sampling 33

where y\ and 3/2 are the values of the two sample units included in
the sample.

2. In the general case, a workable formula for s^ may be chosen from

among the following, depending on the convenience of computation:

2 _ SSyj _ ^(yi-y)2
y n— 1 n— 1

n— 1
En </t2-m/2
n—1
= (29)
n—1 ’

The results of all possible samples of size 3 drawn without replacement

from the same universe are given in Table 2.3. The computations of the
results of all possible samples of sizes 4, 5, and 6 drawn without replacement
are not shown separately.

2.4.2 Distribution of sample mean

The distribution of the sample mean in all possible samples of different sizes
are given in Table 2.4. Two points may be noted:

1. The average of the estimates of all possible samples for any sample size
(this is known as the mathematical expectation) is the true universe
value, namely 5. If the mathematical expectation of a sample esti­
mator is the universe parameter, the estimator is said to be unbiased
for the universe parameter; if not, the estimator is biased. We have
seen that the sample mean, obtained from a simple random sample
without replacement, is an unbiased estimator of the universe mean
(see also section 1.12).
2. As the size of the sample increases, the sample estimates concentrate
around the universe value; thus 73 per cent of the sample estimates
of size two, 90 per cent of size three, and all from four and larger
sizes fall within the range of household size 4-6 (see Figure 2.1). This
characteristic of a sample estimator is known as consistency (see also
section 1.12).
34 Chapter 2

Table 2.3: All possible samples of size 3 drawn without replacement from
the universe of Table 2.1

s2t sit
Sample Sample Total Mean size
no. units sizes *
(V)

1 abc 17 5.67 6.3333 1.0556

2 abd 19 6.33 2.3333 0.3889
3 abe 18 6.00 4.0000 0.6667
4 abf 18 56.00 4.0000 0.6667
5 acd 16 5.33 6.3333 1.0556
6 ace 15 5.00 7.0000 1.1667
7 acf 15 5.00 7.0000 1.1667
8 ade 17 5.67 4.3333 0.7222
9 adf 17 5.67 4.3333 0.7222
10 aef 16 5.33 5.333 0.8889
11 bed 14 4.67 2.3333 0.3889
12 bed 13 4.33 2.3333 0.3889
13 bef 13 4.33 2.3333 0.3889
14 bde 15 5.00 1.0000 0.1667
15 bdf 15 5.00 1.0000 0.1667
16 bef 14 4.67 1.3333 0.2222
17 cde 12 4.00 1.0000 0.6667
18 cdf 12 4.00 1.0000 0.1667
19 cef 11 3.67 0.3333 0.0556
20 def 13 4.33 0.3333 0.0556

Total 100.00 64.0000 10.6667

Mean - - 5.00 3.2000 0.5333

1 EU;
: S5»,/(n - 1) = | SSyt J
as n = 3, N = 6 and f = n/N = 1
:s2(l-/)/n == 2‘
Simple Random Sampling 35

Table 2.4: Estimates of average household size from all possible samples of
different sizes drawn without replacement from the universe of Table 2.1

Average Number of sample with estimated average size of

size of household for samples of size n
household n=1 n=2 n=3 n=4 n—5 n=6

3.00-3.24 1
3.25-3.49
3.50-3.74 2 1
3.75-3.99
4.00-4.24 2 2 2 1
4.25-4.49 3 1 1
4.50-4.74 3 2 2
4.75-4.99 2 1
5.00-5.24 1 2 4 2 3 1
5.25-5.49 2 3 1
5.50-5.74 2 3 2
5.75-5.99 2
6.00-6.24 1 2 2
6.25-6.49 1
6.50-6.74 1
6.75-6.99
7.00-7.24 1
7.25-7.49
7.50-7.74
7.75-7.99
8.00-8.24 1

Number of
samples 6 15 20 15 6 1

Mean 5 5 5 5 5 5

Variance
of mean 2.6667 1.0667 0.5333 0.2667 0.1067 0
36 Chapter 2

Figure 2.1: Distribution of estimates of average household size in sim­

ple random sampling without replacement from the universe of Table 2.1
(Source Table 2.4).

2.4.3 Variance estimators

A measure of the degree by which the estimate y obtained from a sample
differs from the true value Y is given by s^-. The values of for the
different sample sizes from the universe of Table 2.1 are given in Table 2.5.
The following points may be noted from the data:

1. The average of s12 for all the sample sizes is a constant and is 3.2,
whereas the universe variance is cr2 = 2.6 (Table 2.1). Thus s2 is
not an unbiased estimator of the universe variance cr2. The expected
value of is:

N
Etf) = N—l
(2.10)

In some textbooks, the expression on the right-hand side is denoted

by S2 and in others the universe variance is defined by this expression.
Simple Random Sampling 37

Table 2.5: Results of all possible samples of different sizes drawn without
replacement from the universe of Table 2.1

Sample Number of Mean of Mean Mean

size possible sample of of
n samples means 4 4

1 6 5 3.2 2.6667
2 15 5 3.2 1.0667
3 20 5 3.2 0.5333
4 15 5 3.2 0.2667
5 6 5 3.2 0.1067
6 1 5 3.2 0

In our example,

.2 = = 16 =
W-l 5

which is the average of s2 for all the sample sizes.

2. The universe variance of the sample mean for srs without replacement
is

2 _ . (N ~ - S2^1 ~
(211)
y n (N — 1) n

Note that if n = 1, a2 = cr2, the universe variance per unit, as it

should be.

3. The value of the estimator of the variance of the sample average $3-
decreases with increasing sample size and becomes zero when n = N
(see Figure 2.2)

4. Tables 2.4 and 2.5 give the results obtained from the theoretical prob­
abilities of the different samples. The same results are approximated
when actual samples are drawn a large number of times from a uni­
verse.
38 Chapter 2

Figure 2.2: Expectation of the sampling variance of average household size

drawn in simple random sampling with and without replacement from the
universe of Table 2.1 (Source: Table 2.5 and equation (2.20)).

2.5 Sampling with replacement

2.5.1 Estimators of mean and variance

We have seen that in simple random sampling without replacement of n
units out of a total of N units, there may be NCn combinations (sam­
ples) if no unit is repeated in the sample and the order of selection is not
taken into account; the probability of the occurrence of any combination is
\/NCn, the total of all the probabilities for the NCn combinations being 1.
In practice, however, the above procedure of writing out all the NCn com­
binations and then selecting one at random is not followed as this would
be a needless, tedious procedure. It would also be unpractical: for exam­
ple, there are 100C5 = 75, 287, 520 combinations of 5 units to be selected
without replacement out of 100 units and obviously it is out of question
to write down all these combinations and then select one: furthermore, to
use a computer to do the selection would be a waste of resources in this
case. Actually, the n units of a sample are selected one by one with the
help of random numbers (or in some other random way), and if a unit is
once selected in the sample, it is not replaced.
In simple random sampling with replacement a unit can appear more
than once in the sample. In Table 2.6 are shown the 36 possible samples
of size 2 drawn with replacement from the hypothetical universe of Table
2.1: the probability of occurrence of any sample is note the repetition
of units in the sample such as aa, bb etc. and ab, ba etc. For each of the 36
Simple Random Sampling 39

combinations (samples) we compute the following measures, as estimators

of the universe parameters:

n
Estimator of the universe mean: sample mean y = yi/n (2.12)

n
Estimator of variance per unit: (2-13)

Estimator of variance of sample mean: s~ = s^/n (2.14)

Note that the first two estimators are the same as those for srs without
replacement (equations (2.5) and (2.6) respectively), but the third estimator
is different.
The results of Table 2.6 show the following:
1. The mean of the estimates of all possible samples is the universe
value, namely 5. Thus the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of
the universe mean.
2. The mean of all the possible sample estimates of variance s2 is 2.6,
the universe variance, showing that s2 is an unbiased estimator of cr2.

2.5.2 Consistency of mean and sampling variance

In general, in srs with replacement of n units out of a total of N units,
there will be Nn combinations, and the probability of selection of any
combination is \/Nn. The results noted for srs with replacement of 2 units
from the universe of 6 units will also hold for samples of other sizes. In
addition, the following may be noted:
1. As the size of the sample increases, the sample estimates concentrate
around the universe value. The sample mean is again a consistent
estimator of the universe average.
2. The sampling variance of the sample mean for srs with replacement
is
(T^=a2/n (2.15)
and its unbiased estimator is

(216)
This decreases with increasing sample size, but does not reach zero
(Figure 2.2).
40 Chapter 2

Table 2.6: All possible samples of size 2 drawn with replacement from the
universe of Table 2.1

Sample Sample Total size Average size s2t

sy y
no. emits Vl + V2
* (V)1

1 aa 16 8.0 0 0
2 ab 14 7.0 2.0 1.00
3 ac 11 5.5 12.5 6.25
4 ad 13 6.5 4.5 2.25
5 ae 12 6.0 8.0 4.00
6 af 12 6.0 8.0 4.00
7 ba 14 7.0 2.0 1.00
8 bb 12 6.0 0 0
9 be 9 4.5 4.5 2.25
10 bd 11 5.5 0.5 0.25
11 be 10 5.0 2.0 1.00
12 bf 10 5.0 2.0 1.00
13 ca 11 5.5 12.5 6.25
14 cb 9 4.5 4.5 2.25
15 cc 6 3.0 0 0
16 cd 8 4.0 2.0 1.00
17 ce 7 3.5 0.5 0.25
18 cf 7 3.5 0.5 0.25
19 da 13 6.5 4.5 2.25
20 db 11 5.5 0.5 0.25
21 de 8 4.0 2.0 1.00
22 dd 10 5.0 0 0
23 de 9 4.5 0.5 0.25
24 df 9 4.5 0.5 0.25
25 ea 12 6.0 8.0 4.00
26 eb 10 5.0 2.0 1.00
27 ec 7 3.5 0.5 0.25
28 ed 9 4.5 0.5 0.25
29 ee 8 4.0 0 0
30 ef 8 4.0 0 0
31 fa 12 6.0 8.0 4.00
32 fb 10 5.0 2.0 1.00
33 fc 7 3.5 0.5 0.25
34 fd 9 4.5 0.5 0.25
35 fe 8 4.0 0 0
36 ff 8 4.0 0 0

Total - - 180.00 96.00 48.00

Mean - - 5.00 2.6 1.3

* yi and 1/2 are the values of the two units included in the sample,
t y = i (yi + 1/2) from equation (2.5).
sy = 2 ~ V2)2 from equations (2.13) and (2.8).
§ s?_ = j sy from equation (2.14).
Simple Random Sampling 41

2.6 Important results

2.6.1 For simple random sampling

We shall summarize the important results for simple random sampling.
We shall often refer to srs with replacement as “srswr” and srs without
replacement as “srswor”.

1. The sample mean y is an unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y.

2. The variance of the sample mean is

cr£2 = — °
m srswr (2.17)
y n
a2 (N — n)
V (A - 1)
52
= — (1 — /) in srswor (2.18)

where
N
s2 N-l
a2 (219)

and f = n/N is the sampling fraction.

3. The sample estimator of variance per unit

2 ZTfa-ÿ)2
~ n-l

is an unbiased estimator of a2 in srswr and of S2 in srswor.

4. Unbiased variance estimators of the sample mean y are

2
Stt = — •in srswr
*
(2.20)
y n
s2
Stt
3/
= — (1 — /)
n '
in srswor (2.21)

From the numerical examples, these results have been seen to hold for
the universe of six households. Theoretical proofs are given in Appendix II
that they hold for a universe of any size (sections A2.3.2 - A2.3.4).
42 Chapter 2

2.6.2 Variance of the ratio of random variables

Another theorem of wide generality relates to the ratio of two random vari­
ables. If y and x are two random variables with expectations Y and X,
variances <7y and and covariance aYx = P&Y&x (where p is the cor­
relation coefficient), then the variance of the ratio of two random variables
r = y/x is given approximately by

= j^2 i0*' + -ft20* “ ^Rtryx) (2.22)

= R\CV$ + CV% - 2pCVYCVx) (2.23)

where R — Y/X. Also,

CVr2 = CVY + CV
* - 2pCVYCVx (2.24)

Theoretical proofs for simple random sampling are given in Appendix II,
section A2.3.6. Estimators of <r2 and CVr are obtained on substituting the
sample estimators for the universe parameters in the respective expressions.

Notes
1. In effect, sampling with replacement is equivalent to drawing samples from
an infinitely large universe, and in the estimating formulae for the variance
of the sample mean (and other related measures), the factor

known variously as the finite sampling correction, finite multiplier, or finite

population correction, does not enter.
2. As the finite sampling correction (1 — /) is less than 1, the estimator of the
sample mean (and other related measures) will, on an average, have less
variance (i.e. be more efficient) for sampling without replacement than with
replacement. However, sampling with replacement greatly simplifies the
computations required for estimating universe parameters; for this reason,
even if sampling is made without replacement, the sample may be treated
as if it was obtained with replacement if the sample size is small relative
to that of the universe. A useful rule of thumb for the latter is that the
sampling fraction f = n/N should be less than 10 per cent, and preferably
less than 5 per cent.
3. Behavior of sampling variance with increasing sampling size: In sampling
without replacement, the expression for the estimator of the variance of the
sample mean, Sy(l — f}/n, becomes zero when the universe is completely
Simple Random Sampling 43

enumerated, for then n = N and (1 — /) = 0. In sampling with replacement,

however, the expression for the estimator of the variance of the sample
mean, namely s^/n, will not necessarily become zero even when the sample
size n is made equal to the universe size N. This is because in sampling
with replacement, a unit can be selected more than once and hence a sample
of N units may not necessarily include all the distinct N universe units.
We have already noted that sampling with replacement is equivalent to
sampling an infinite universe, which can never be exhausted by sampling,
as the units are replaced after each draw.
The coefficient of variation of the sample mean is

CV(y) a^/Y (2.25)

<7/Y y/n
universe CV per unit/-yn in srswr (2.26)
<t IN — n
TÿiïV -i

universe CV per unit

in srswor (2.27)
y/n
The behavior of the coefficient of variation of the sample mean with in­
creasing sample size in simple random sampling both with and without
replacement is illustrated in Figure 2.3 for selected values of N and n,
assuming the universe CV per unit to be 50 per cent.
Figure 2.3 illustrates the fact that when the sampling fraction is rela­
tively large, sampling without replacement has substantial superiority over
sampling with replacement; with a small sampling fraction, however, the
gain is marginal.
In sampling with replacement, and approximately also in sam­
pling without replacement when the sampling fraction is rela­
tively small, the sampling variance of the sample mean is inversely
related to the sample size, and does not depend on the size of
the universe.
4. Although the variance estimators per unit in the universe s2 y and of the
sample average are unbiased estimators of the corresponding universe
values, the sample estimators of the standard deviations, obtained on tak­
ing the positive square root of the variance estimators, are not unbiased
estimators of the corresponding universe standard deviations: the reader
may verify this for the numerical example of section 2.4. The bias, however,
is negligible for large samples.
5. The sample CV is also not an unbiased estimator of the universe CV.
44 Chapter 2

Figure 2.3: Behavior of the coefficient of variation of sample mean with

increasing sample size in simple random sampling with and without re­
placement when the universe coefficient of variation per unit is 50%.

2.7 Fundamental theorems

We now introduce some theorems of fundamental importance in sampling.

1. If ii (i — 1,2, ...,n) are n independent and unbiased estimators of
the universe parameter T, then a combined unbiased estimator of T
is the arithmetic mean

i = (2.28)

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of t is

s2 _ -t)2 = SStj
1 n(n — 1) n(n — 1)

If Ui (z = 1,2,..., n) are n independent and unbiased estimators of

another universe parameter U, then a combined unbiased estimator
of U is similarly

(2.30)
Simple Random Sampling 45

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of u is similarly

2 _ Y,n(ui ~ u)2 _ SSui

(2-31)
u n(n — 1) n(n — 1)

2. An unbiased estimator of the covariance of t and u is the estimator

_ -u) _ SPtjUj
tu~ n(n-l) n(n-l) 1 >

3. A consistent, but generally biased, estimator of the ratio of two uni­

verse parameters
R = T/U
is the ratio of the sample estimators t and u

r = i/u (2.33)

and an estimator of the variance of r is

sr = (4 + r24 - 2rs?-)/u2 (2.34)

4. A consistent, but generally biased, estimator of the universe corre­

lation coefficient p between the two study variables is the sample
correlation coefficient

Ptü — stû/stsn

Notes
1. The above theorems have a very wide range of application in sampling.
These can be generalized to stratified and multi-stage designs, with sample
units being selected with equal or varying probabilities. The only require­
ment is that for the universe parameters, a number of independent and
unbiased estimators be available from the sample. The independence of
the sample estimators is ensured by selecting the sample units with re­
placement (at least at the first stage in a multi-stage sample design and in
each stratum separately in a stratified design); in practice, when sampling
is carried out without replacement this is approximated by making the
(first-stage) sampling fraction fairly small (10 per cent or less, preferably 5
per cent or less: see note 2, section 2.6).
2. The estimators t and ü generally refer to the totals of the characteristics;
the advantage of this will be see later.
46 Chapter 2

3. the estimator r is unbiased if the linear regression of t on u passes through

the origin (0, 0). An estimator of the bias (this estimator itself is generally
biased) is

(2.36)

4. Whenever a universe ratio or its sample estimator is considered, it is as­

sumed that the denominator is not zero.

2.8 Standard errors of estimators and setting of confidence limits

The standard error of an estimator is given by the positive square root

of the sampling variance of the estimator. Expressed as a ratio of the
expected value of the estimator, it is called the relative standard error
or the Coefficient of Variation (CV) and is conveniently expressed as a
percentage measure. The square of the CV is sometimes called the relative
variance of the estimator. When the universe values are not available,
sample estimators are substituted in computing the CV.
The standard error of the estimator helps in setting probability limits
to the estimator by assigning limits which are expected to include the (un­
known) universe value with a certain probability : these limits are known as
confidence limits, and the interval set by the limits, the confidence interval.
If t is an unbiased estimator of a universe parameter T (using the no­
tations of section 2.7), and its sampling distribution moderately normal
(which will happen when the sample size is not too small), and sj, the
standard error of t, is estimated from the sample data, then the statistic

_ t — T _ (t - T)>/n
sj st

is distributed as Student’s t-distribution with (n — 1) degrees of freedom on

which Sp the sample estimator of the variance of t, is based; here sf is
defined as

(2.38)

Denoting by t'a n_i the 100a percentage point of the /-distribution cor­
responding to (n — 1) degrees of freedom, we see that the inequality

|i-r|v^/s, (2.39)

is expected to occur on an average with probability (1—a). The chances are,

therefore, 100(1 — a) per cent that the universe value T will be contained
Simple Random Sampling 47

by the limits

t~ t + (t'Q,n_iSt)/y/n (2.40)

Some illustrative values of the /-distribution are given in Appendix III,

Table 2. For example, for n = 10, and a = 0.05, /za = 2.26. For large
n, the normal distribution may be used, where for a — 0.05, t'a = 1.96
or 2 approximately.
The following points should be noted:

1. When the universe standard error of 7, namely ay = CT/^/n, is known,

then the statistic

(i-T)M (2.41)

follows the normal distribution.

2. When the sample size is small, the /-distribution may still be used in
setting probability limits to the universe values, but with the addi­
tional assumption that the sample itself comes from a normal distri­
bution.

2.9 Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their variances

2.9.1 Simple random sampling with replacement

We have seen in sections 2.5 and 2.6 that if a simple random sample of n
units is selected with replacement from the universe of N units, the sample
mean y is an unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y, and an unbiased
estimator of the variance of y is

s2=sl
y n n(n — 1)

Let us see, however, how the above and other results follow from the fun­
damental theorems of section 2.7.
With a simple random sample of n units selected with replacement, let
the sample values of the study variable be J/i, 2/2, • • -, • Each of these yt
values (i = 1,2,... ,n), when multiplied by N, the total number of units
in the universe, gives an independent, unbiased estimator of the universe
total Y

y- = Nyi (2.42)
48 Chapter 2

The combined unbiased estimator of Y is (from equation (2.28))

An unbiased estimator of the variance of the estimator j/q is, from equation
(2.29),
- yg)2 _ SSy‘
n(n — 1) n(n — 1)
^Z\yi~y)2 =
n(n — 1) n
N2SSyi
(2.44)
n(n — 1)
An unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y is obtained on dividing
the unbiased estimator of the universe total by the number of universe units
N, namely,
(2.45)
i. the sample mean, and an unbiased estimator of the variance of y on
e.
dividing the unbiased estimator of variance of the estimator of the universe
total by №, namely,
s’./№ = s2/n = 4 (2.46)
From the same sample, unbiased estimators of the total and the mean
of another study variable may be computed from estimation formulae of
the above types. An unbiased estimator of the covariance between the
estimators y$ and Xq of the two universe total Y and X is, from equation
(2.32),

~ yg)(< - *5) _ SPy'x;

n(n — 1) n(n — 1)
N2Zn(yj-y^i~^ = N2syx
n(n — 1) n
N^SPyjXj
(2.47)
n(n — 1)
A consistent, but generally biased, estimator of the universe ratio R —
Y/X of two universe totals Y and X is the ratio of the sample estimators
from equation (2.33), namely,

r = Vo/®o (2.48)
Simple Random Sampling 49

and an estimator of the variance of r is (from equation (2.34))

•L Q 71 Jb
£n(yi - ÿ)2 + r2 ETfot - *)2 ~2r 'L’Xyj ~ ÿ)(x» ~ æ)
n(n — l)æ2
SSyi + r2SSxi — 2r SPyiXi
n(n — l)x2

(2.49)
n(n — l)x2

2.9.2 Simple random sampling without replacement

Here the unbiased estimators of universe totals and means, and the es­
timator of the universe ratio of two universe totals (or means) remain
the same as for srs with replacement, but the finite sampling correction,
(1 — /) = (1 — n/N), is applied to the variance and covariance estimators.
Thus the unbiased variance estimator of ÿ is

(2.21)

(2.50)

An unbiased variance estimator of j/q is

(2.51)

An unbiased estimator of covariance of z/q and Zq is

N2SPyiXi
U n(n-l) (2.52)
50 Chapter 2

A variance estimator of r is

sr = =2 (4+r24~2rS^)

= (s2 + r2s2 - 2rsyx)

nx v
(1 - f)(SSyi + r2SSxj - 2rSPyiXi)
(2.53)
n(n — l)z2

2.10 Use of random sample numbers

The first two plates of random sample numbers from Statistical Tables for
Biological, Agricultural and Medical Research by R.A. Fisher and F. Yates
are reproduced in Appendix III, Table 1. The use of these tables in select­
ing probability samples will be illustrated with examples. Random number
tables are also provided by Kendall and Smith and by the Rand Corpora­
tion.

Notes

1. When a number of plates of random numbers is available, the student

should select one plate by any manner and follow through the columns of
random numbers from one exercise to the next until the end of the plates
and then start again from the first plate.
2. When drawing a sample from a small number of units, such as selecting one
adult from the total number of adults in a household, the “lottery method”
may be followed by selecting one out of a number of plastic cards after
proper shuffling.

2.11 Examples

In Appendix IV are given for thirty villages located in three states, the data
on the current total population and also the current size of the households
and the population obtaining during a census conducted five years ago. For
some sample villages additional information on items such as the monthly
income of the households will also be given. These will constitute our
universe, from which samples will be drawn and the principles of sample
selection and procedures of estimation of universe values illustrated.
Some universe values follow; normally, of course, not all these values
will be known and will have to be estimated from a probability sample:
Simple Random Sampling 51

total number of states = 3

total number of villages = 30
total number of households — 600
total current number of persons = 3042
previous census number of persons = 2815
total area = 270fcm2
average number of households per village = 20
average number of persons per village = 101.42
average number of persons per household = 5.07

This is, of course, an artificial, hypothetical universe, as can be seen from

the small number of households in a village. Examples from live data will,
however, be given later.

Example 2.1

From village number 8 in zone 1 (Appendix IV), select a simple random sample
of 5 households without replacement, and on the basis of the data on size and
the monthly income of these 5 sample households, estimate for the 24 households
in the village the total number of persons, total daily income, average household
size, and average monthly income per household and per person, together with
their standard errors.
Of the two plates of random numbers given in Appendix III (Table 1), we
choose one plate at random, say, by tossing a coin; suppose the second plate is
chosen. To obtain a simple random sample of 5 households without replacement
from the present universe of 24 households in the village, we start from the top
left-hand corner of the plate, and read down the first two columns (as the total
number of households is of two digits).
One method of procedure is to select any random number that lies between
01 and 24, and not to consider all numbers between 25 and 99 as also 00; the five
numbers thus selected would constitute our required sample of 5 households. (As
selection without replacement, if a random number is repeated in the draws we
would reject it, and continue drawing until five different numbers are selected.)
However, this procedure will lead to a large number of rejections of the random
numbers, on an average 100 — 24 = 76 per cent. A modified procedure is to divide
all two-digit random numbers greater than 24 by 24 and take the remainder as
the random number selected. Obviously, we should not consider numbers 97 to
99 and also 00 in order to give all the 24 households equal chances of selection.
The random numbers as they appear (and after division by 24 and taking the
remainder, if the random number is larger than 24) are: 53 (remainder 5); 97
(rejected); 35 (remainder 11); 63 (remainder 15); 02; 98 (rejected); 64 (remainder
16).
The five households that constitute our sample are then households with serial
numbers 5, 11, 15, 2, and 16. The data on the size and daily income of these 5
52 Chapter 2

Table 2.7: Size and daily income of the 5 simple random samples of house­
holds selected from 24 households in village no. 8 in zone 1

Sample Household Number of Total daily y* *1

household serial persons income in
no. no. y> $
Xi

1 2 3 33 9 1089 99
2 5 4 40 16 1600 160
3 11 3 34 9 1156 102
4 15 5 68 25 4624 340
5 16 6 61 36 3721 366

Total 21 236 95 12190 1067

Mean - 4-2 (ÿ) 47.2 (ï)

sample households are given in Table 2.7, along with the required computations.
The household size is denoted by yi and the daily household income by xt.
Here A = 24; n = 5; f = n/N = 0.2083; and 1 — f = 0.7916. The corrected
sums of squares and products are

SSy,
= ¿’-(¿p/"

= 95 — 212/5 = 95 — 88.2 = 6.8

SSxt
= ±^-(±p2/”

= 12190 - 2362/5 = 12190 - 11139.2 = 1050.8

SPytxt

= 1067 - 21 x 236/5 = 1067 - 991.2 = 75.8

An unbiased estimate of the average household size is (from equation (2.45))

y = 12" V
*/ n = 4-2-
Simple Random Sampling 53

An unbiased variance estimate of y is (from equation (2.50)) = (1 — /) x

SSyi/n(n — 1) = (0.79167 x 6.8)/(5 x 4) = 0.269178, so that the estimated
standard error of y is
Sy = >/(0.269178) = 0.519
and the estimated CV of y is
Sy = 0.519/4.2 = 0.1236 or 12.36%
An unbiased estimates of the total number of persons in the village is (from
equation (2.43))
y* = Ny = 24 x 4.2 = 100.8 or 101
with an unbiased variance estimate (from equation (2.51))
sj. = Nsy = N2s^ = 242 x 0.269178

so that the estimated standard error of y$ is

= Nsy = 24 x 0.519 = 12.46
An unbiased estimate of the average daily income per household is x = $47.20,
with an unbiased variance estimate s^ = (1 — f^SSxt/nin — 1) = 41.5943; es­
timated standard error sj- = $6.45; and estimated CV s-^/x = $6.45/$47.20 =
0.1367 or 13.67%.
An unbiased estimate of total daily income of all the 24 households in the
village is Zq = nx = $1132.80 or $1133, with an unbiased variance estimate
s2, = 242 x 4159.43, so that the estimated standard error of Zq is
sx* = 24 x $6.45 = $154.80
The estimated daily income per person is, from equation (2.48), the estimated
total income divided by the estimated total number of persons, or
n n

r = Zo/vo = = $236/21 = $11.24

The estimated variance of r is, from equation (2.53),

s2 = (1 — f)(SSxi + r2SSyi — 2r SPytxt)/n(n — l)y2 = 0.46207
Therefore, the estimated standard error of r is \/0.46207 = $0.68 and the
estimated CV of r is
sr/r = $0.68/811.24 = 0.0605 or 6.05%
much smaller than those for the numerator and the denominator, namely, total
income and total number of persons.

Note: The standard errors of the totals and the means are rather large: the
standard errors could be decreased by increasing the size of the sample and/or
by adopting more appropriate sampling techniques, detailed in later chapters.
54 Chapter 2

Example 2.2

From the list of 600 households residing in 30 villages (Appendix IV), select a
simple random sample of 20 households with replacement, and, on the basis of the
data on the size of these 20 sample households, estimate for the whole universe
the total number of persons the and average household size, together with their
standard errors, and the 95 per cent confidence limits of the universe values.
Before the required sample can be drawn, we have to obtain a serial list of
all the 600 households. The households in the 30 villages need not actually be
re-numbered, but the purpose would be served by taking the cumulative totals of
the number of households from the 30 villages, given in Table 2.8. Starting with
the 3-digit numbers from where we had left off, and rejecting numbers between
601 and 999 as also 000, we get the following 20 acceptable random numbers:
585 348 39 84 70 18 451 433 504226
317 366 72 101 551 538 518 359 37729
Random number 585 refers to the first (585 — 584 = 1) household in the ninth
village is state III; random number 348 refers to the seventh (348 — 341 = 7)
household in the eighth village in state II; and so on. The selected sample of 20
households and the data on household size are given in Table 2.9.
Here N — 600 and n = 20. The reader should verify the following sums, sums
of squares and products:

^2 y. = 102 2*= 594

52 V.1 SSV> = 73 8

Therefore,
1 102 E 1

The estimated total number of persons in the 600 households in the universe is,
from equation (2.43),
y0* = Ny = 600 x 5.1 = 3060
The estimates variance of yo is, from equation (2.44),

s2. = 6002 x 73.8/380 = 6002 x 0.1942

Therefore the estimated standard error yÔ is

= 600 x 0.4407 = 264.42

and the estimated CV of y^ is

sy./y0* = 264.42/3060 = 0.0863 or 8.63%

From Appendix III, Table 2, the value of t for n — 1 = 19 degrees of freedom

and 0.05 probability is 2.09. Therefore, from equation (2.40), the 95 per cent
confidence limits of the total number of persons in the 30 villages are 3060 ±
2.09 x 264.42 or 2508 and 3612.
Simple Random Sampling 55

Table 2.8: Total and cumulative total number of households in the 30

villages: data of Appendix IV

State Village Number Cumulative

no. no. of number of
households households

I 1 17 17
2 18 35
3 26 61
4 18 79
5 24 103
6 17 120
7 20 140
8 24 164
9 24 188
10 22 210
II 1 15 225
2 22 247
3 17 264
4 19 283
5 20 303
6 19 322
7 19 341
8 23 364
9 25 389
10 23 412
11 18 430
III 1 15 445
2 21 466
3 18 484
4 21 505
5 20 525
6 21 546
7 21 567
8 17 584
9 16 600
56 Chapter 2

Table 2.9: Size of the srs of 20 households selected from 600 households in
30 villages

State no.
I II III

Village no. 2 234 45 5 2 6 8 8 9 9 12 4 5 679

Household no. 1 12 4 9 11 5 22 1 14 7 18 2 13 3 6 20 13 13 5 1
Size yt 6 454 44 3 955548 73 4 7 816

The estimated average household size is y = 5.1 and the estimated standard
error of y is
SSyt
sy — = 0.4407
n(n — 1)

The 95 per cent confidence limits of the universe average household size are
5.1 ± 2.09 x 0.4407 or 4.2 and 6.0.

Note: The total number and the serial numbering of households in each village
will not in general be known beforehand; also, in the above sampling scheme,
not all the villages will necessarily be represented. We shall see later how these
limitations can be overcome by using stratified multi-sample designs.

Example 2.3

From the list of 30 villages (Appendix IV), select a simple random sample of
4 villages with replacement, and from the data on the numbers of households
and persons, estimate for the universe the total numbers of persons and house­
holds, the average numbers of households and persons per village, and the average
household size, together with their standard errors.
With the 30 villages in the 3 zones, it is easy to number these villages serially
from 1 to 30. Starting from where we had left off, and using two-digit random
numbers, we get the following: 19, 24, 18, 19, 15. In a “with replacement” sample,
we would have to take the first four indicated villages, with village number 19
occurring twice; however, although the sampling fraction 4/30 = 1/7.5 is over
10 per cent, we shall, for the sake of illustration, reject the repeated random
number 19, and select the next non-repetitive random number, 15. The sample
then becomes “without replacement”, but we shall treat it as if it were selected
with replacement. The required data for these sample villages are given in Table
2.10.
Simple Random Sampling 57

Table 2.10: Number of households and number of persons of the srs of 4

samples villages, selected from the 30 villages in Appendix IV

Serial Village No. of No. of

no. serial households persons
i no. h, ?/«

1 19 25 127
2 24 18 105
3 18 23 114
4 15 20 105

Total 86 451
Mean - h = 21.5 V = 112.75

Here N = 30, n = 4. The reader should verify the following sums of squares
and products: 52 = 1878; SSh, = 29; 52 = 51175; SSyt = 324.75;
J2 hty, = 9787; SPhty, = 90.5.
From equations of the type (2.42) to (2.49), the estimated total number of
households in the 30 villages is

ho = Nh = 30 x 21.5 = 645

The estimated variance of is

s2h0* = 302 x 2.4167

so that the estimated standard error of ho is

0
= 30 x 1.5055 = 45.16

and the estimated CV of ho is

45.16/645 = 0.0700 or 7.00%

The estimated total number of persons in the 30 villages is

* = Ny = 30 x 112.75 = 3382.5
t/o

The estimated variance of y£ is

s2yO. = 302 x 27.0625

58 Chapter 2

so that the estimated standard error of yl is

s *0. = 30 x 5.2022 = 156.066
and the estimated CV of y$ is 156.066/3382.5 = 0.0461 or 4.61 per cent.
The estimated average number of households per village is h = 21.5, with
estimated standard error of s-^ = 1.5055. The estimated average number of
persons per village is y = 112.75, with the estimated standard error of Sy =
5.2022.
The estimated average household size is given by the estimated total number
of persons divided by the estimated total number of households, or
r = yo/ho = 451/86 = 5.24
The estimated variance of r is
s2r = (SSy, 4- r2SSht — 2r SPytht)/n(n — l)/i2
= 172.5775/5547 = 0.03111,
so that the estimated standard error of r is sr = 0.1706 and the estimated CV of
r is 0.1706/5.24 = 0.0326 or 3.26 per cent.

2.12 Estimation for sub-universes

Estimates of totals, means, ratios, etc. are often required for the study
variables for sub-divisions of the universe or domains of study, e.g. for
households in different occupation or income groups in household budget
surveys, or for different family structures (such as nuclear and extended
families) in social investigations. The general estimating equations for a
simple random sample apply equally here, the only difference being that
the study variable will take the sample value for units belonging to the par­
ticular sub-universe, and will be considered to have a zero value otherwise.
Thus, the sub-universe total is given by
N
y' = Yy< <2 54)

where Y/ = Y{ for units belonging to the sub-universe, and zero otherwise.

The sample values are j/,- (? = 1,2,..., n) for the study variable, and we
define y'i = yi if the sample unit belongs to the sub-universe, and j/- = 0
otherwise.
Then if y,
* is an unbiased estimator of the total of the sub-universe
Y' obtained from the zth unit, a combined unbiased estimator of Y' is the
arithmetic mean

'* 1 '
Vo = ~ , Vi (2.55)
n
Simple Random Sampling 59

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of y0* is

2 , (2.56)
*Vo n(n — 1)

The covariance and ratio of two sample estimators yQ* and x'q are sim­
ilarly defined, as also is the estimated variance of the ratio y$ /x§ .
From equation (2.43), the combined unbiased estimator of Y1 from a
simple random sample (with replacement) is

Vo' = ^ YLv'i = Nÿ' (2-57)

where

= (258)

is the sample mean of the y\ values.

An unbiased estimator of the variance of y§ is, from equation (2.44),

(2.59)

If the number of units in the sub-universe A' is known, then an unbiased

estimator of the mean of the sub-universe
* = Y' /N'
Ÿ (2.60)

is

Vo = Vo/N' (2-61)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of y§ is

A. = A./n* (2.62)
V0 9Q

If N' is not known, then an estimator of Y is

ÿ'o = y'o/rio (2.63)

where n0* is the combined unbiased estimator of N'. For a simple random
sample, n0* is obtained on putting t/,- = 1 for the sample units which belong
to the sub-universe, namely,

tiq = Nn'/n (2.64)

60 Chapter 2

where n' is the number of sample units that belong to the sub-universe.
From equations (2.57) and (2.64)

y'o = ^yi/n'

the sample average (the divisor being n' rather than n).
An estimator of the variance of y' is

(2.65)
y n'(n' — 1)
For an example, see Example 2.4.

2.13 Estimation of proportion of units

Estimates are often required of the total number or the proportion of the
units that possess a certain qualitative characteristic or attribute or fall
into a certain class. Thus, in a household survey, we might wish to known
the proportion that live in houses they own.
If N' is the number of units in the universe possessing the attribute,
then the universe proportion of the number with the attribute is

P = N’/N (2.66)

where N is the total number of units in the universe. If we define our study
variable so that it takes the value
Yt■, = 1, if the unit has the attribute; and
Yi = 0, otherwise,

then the universe number N' with the attribute is

N

1
and the mean of the y,s is
N
y = 52 Yi/N = N'/N = p (2-67)

Since Y{ can either be 1 or 0, the universe variance of Y{ is

N N
a2 = 52?^ ~ y?/N = 52 Y?/N -y2 = P-P2 = P^-P) (2-68)
Simple Random Sampling 61

If in the simple random sample of n units (drawn with replacement), r

units possess the attribute, then the sample mean
n
ÿ = 52 y^n = r/n = p (2.69)

is an unbiased estimator of the universe proportion P, where ?/t = 1 if the

sample unit has the attribute; and t/,- = 0 otherwise.
The sampling variance of p is

(2.70)

the coefficient of variation per unit is

<r _ y[P(l - P)] _ /1-P

(2.71)
p p N p
and the CV of p is

^ = a = ,/EZ
(2.72)
P P V nP
An unbiased estimator of cr2 is
s2 _ E2(y» - y)2 _ (nP ~ nP2) _ -p)
(2.73)
n—1 n—1 n—1
and an unbiased estimator of the variance of p is

c2 _ c2 _ _ P(1~P)
(2-74)
p y n n— 1
An estimator of the universe CV is

s ~(1 — p) n
(2-75)
P . P (n-1).

and an estimator of the CV of p is

sy _ /i 1 -P '
(2.76)

An unbiased estimator of N', the number of units in the universe with

the attribute, is

*
n = Np (2.77)
62 Chapter 2

Table 2.11: Size of sample households with TV satellite dishes in the srs of
20 households selected in Example 2.2

Zone no.
I II III

Village no. 2 5 6 8 6
Household no. 1 5 14 18 13
Size y, 6 4 5 5 8

and unbiased estimator of whose variance is

n,. = №»’ = №p(l - p)/(n - 1)

S2 (2.78)

In large samples, the 100(1 — o) per cent probability limits of the universe
proportion P are provided by

P±t'asp (2.79)

where t'a is the a percentage point of the normal distribution.

Note: The results of this section could be derived from those of the preceding
section by setting y't = 1, if the sample unit has the attribute, and zero otherwise.
Theoretical proofs are given in Appendix II, section A2.3.5.

Example 2.4

In the sample of 20 households selected from 600 households given in Example

2.2, the data on the households which were found to have TV satellite dishes are
given in Table 2.11. Estimate the proportion and the total number of households
having TV satellite dishes and the total number of persons in these households,
together with their standard errors.
Here N = 600, n = 20, and r (the sample number of households possessing
the attribute) = 5. From equation (2.69), an unbiased estimates of the universe
proportion of households with TV satellite dishes is p = r/n = 5/20 = 0.25, and
an unbiased estimate of the variance of p is, from equation (2.74),

Sp = p(l - p)/(n - 1) = 0.25 x -.75/19 = 0.00986842

so that the standard error of p is sp — 0.09934.

Simple Random Sampling 63

The unbiased estimate of the number of households with TV satellite dishes

is, from equation (2.77),

* = Np = 600 x 0.25 = 150

n

An unbiased estimator of the variance of n * is, from equation (2.78)

sn/. = Nsp = 600 x 0.09934 = 39.74

The estimated number of persons in these households is obtained from equa­

tion (2.57) on putting y{ = yx for households with TV satellite dishes, and yt = 0
for other households in the sample. Then

* = N 57 y'x/n = 600 x 28/20 = 840

y'o

An unbiased estimate of the variance of yQ* is obtained similarly from equation

(2.59),
A. = 6002 = 0.333684
«0

so that an estimated standard error of y$ is 600 x 0.5776 = 346.56.

Example 2.5

In the sample of 20 households selected from the 600 households (example 2.2),
the numbers of males and females are given in Table 2.12. Estimate the universe
proportion of males to total population and its standard error.
The procedure of section 2.13 will be inappropriate in this case, for the sample
persons were not selected directly out of the universe of persons. However, we
shall illustrate both the appropriate and the inappropriate procedures.
Assuming that the 102 sample persons were selected directly from the universe
of persons, we apply the procedure of section 2.13, noting that n = 102, and r
(the number of males) = 52. Hence from equation (2.69) the estimated proportion
of males in the universe is p = r/n = 52/102 = 0.5098.
From equation (2.74) the estimated variance of the sample proportion p is
Sp = p(l — p)/(n — 1) = 0.00206545, so that sp = 0.04545.

Table 2.12: Numbers of males and females in the srs of 20 households selected in
Example 2.2

Total
Male 32322215322254224312 52
Female 32222224233233123504 50

Total 645444395554873478 1 6 102

64 Chapter 2

The above is an inappropriate procedure. The appropriate procedure is that

of section 2.9, and the estimated proportion of males in the universe is equal to
the estimated total number of males divided by the estimated total number of
persons. Note that N = 600 households and n = 20 households. In Example 2.2,
we have already obtained the following for the estimated total number of persons:

y* = Ny = 600 x 5.1 = 3060

with corrected sum of squares

SSy, = 73.8

Denoting by x, the number of males in the ith sample household, we have

x= = 52/50 = 2.6 SSxt = 24.8 SPytxt = 37.8.

The estimated total number of males is, from equation (2.43),

xq = Nx = 600 x 2.6 = 1560

and the estimated universe proportion of males is, from equation (2.48),

r = Xo/yô = 1560/3060 = 0.5098

as in the inappropriate procedure.

The estimated variance of r is, from equation (2.49),

= (SSxi + r2SSy, — 2r SPyiXi)/n(n — l)y2 = 0.0005391082

so that sr = 0.02322, considerably different from the value of sp obtained by the

inappropriate procedure.

2.14 Method of random groups for estimating variances and covari­

ances

A short-cut method of estimating universe variances and covariances is to

group the total of n sample units (selected with replacement) into k groups
of m units each (n = krn), and to compute estimates of the variances and
covariances from the group means. The results follow from the fundamental
theorems of section 2.7, but will be illustrated for a simple random sample
(with replacement).
Let yji be the value of the study variable for the /th unit (/ = 1,2,.. ., m)
in the jth group (j = 1,2,... ,k) and the mean for the /th group

(2.80)
Simple Random Sampling 65

The mean of all the n sample units is, as before,

1 n 1 k m . k
v=-Ev‘ = k^Y,Y,Vi< = -k^ (2'81)
1=1 J=1 /=1 7=1

i.
e. the mean of the group means.
The overall mean ÿ is an unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y with
variance cr2/n, so also the group means ÿj are each an unbiased estimator
Y but with variance <r2/m.
An unbiased estimator of tr^- is

k
42 = 52^ “ tf/W ~ 1) (2-82)

and an unbiased estimator of the universe variance <r2 is

k
s'2 = ns'l = -ÿ)2/k(k - 1) (2.83)

For two study variables an unbiased estimator of the covariance of ÿ and x

is
k
s'ÿx = ^(ÿj-y)^i(2-84)

Note: The variance and covariance estimators and s'-- are based on (k — 1)
degrees of freedom, and are, therefore, less efficient than the variance and covari­
ance estimators, obtained respectively from equations (2.44) and (2.47) based on
(n — 1) degrees of freedom.

Example 2.6

The simple random sample of 20 households selected (with replacement) from

the universe of 600 households in Example 2.2 is arranged in 4 random groups of
5 households each: the random groups were formed in order of selection of the
sample households. The results are given in Table 2.13. Obtain estimates of the
variance of the sample mean. How would the result differ if there were 2 groups
of 10 households each?
Here n = 20, k = 4, m = 5. An unbiased estimate of the variance of ÿ is, from
equation (2.82), s^ = 0.43 so that the estimated standard error is s'- = 0.656.
If the 20 households were formed into 2 groups of 10 households each (taking
again the households in the order of selection), then the two group means are

ÿj = (24 + 29)/10 = 5.3 y2 - (17 + 32)/10 = 4.9

66 Chapter 2

Table 2.13: Random groups of sample households: data of Example 2.2

Random Total number Average y} - y (y} - y)2

group of persons size
no.

1 24 4.8 -0.3 0.09

2 29 5.8 +0.7 0.47
3 17 3.4 -1.7 2.89
4 32 6.4 + 1.3 1.69

All groups 102 5.1 0 5.16

The estimated standard error is, from equation (2.82),

= ||F1 - F2I = °-5

Further reading
Chaudhuri and Stenger, chapter 1; Cochran, chapters 2 and 3; Deming (1950),
chapter 4; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and II, chapter 4; Hedayat and Sinha,
chapters 1 and 2; Kish (1965), chapter 2; Murthy (1967), chapter 2; Pathak
(1988); Sukhatme et al. (1984), chapter 2; Yates, sections 6.1-6.4, 6.9, 7.1-7.4
and 7.8.

Exercises

1. A simple random sample of 10 agricultural plots drawn without replacement

from 100 plots in a village gave the following areas (in acres) under a certain
crop:
2.4, 3.2, 2.9, 4.6, 1.9, 2.8, 3.1, 1.8, 3.6, 2.8
Compute unbiased estimates of the mean and total area under the crop for
the village, along with their standard errors and coefficients of variation.
2. From a list of 75,308 (= N) farms in a province, a simple random sample of
2072 (= n) farms was drawn. Data for the number of cattle for the sample
were:
= 25,883; y,2 = 599,488.
Simple Random Sampling 67

Ignoring the finite sampling correction, estimate from the sample (a) the
total number of cattle in the province and (b) the average number of cattle
per farm, along with their standard errors and the 95% confidence limits.
(United Nations (1972), Manual, Example 1).
3. From village number 8 in zone 1 (Appendix IV) draw a simple random
sample of 5 households without replacement. Obtain estimates of the same
characteristics (other than income) for the village as a whole as in Example
2.1, and compare the results.
4. From the list of 30 villages (Appendix IV) draw an srs of 4 villages with
replacement and obtain estimates of the same universe characteristics as in
Example 2.3. Compare your results with those in Example 2.3.
5. In a simple random sample of 50 households drawn with replacement from
a total of 250 households in a village, only 8 were found to possess tran­
sistor radios. These households had respectively 3, 5, 3, 4, 7, 4, 4, and 5
members. Estimate the total number of households that possess transistor
radios and the total number of persons in these households, along with
their standard errors (Chakravarti, Laha, and Roy, Example 3.1, modified
to “with replacement” scheme).
6. A survey was organized to determine the incidence of HIV (human immun­
odeficiency virus) seroconversion among first-time blood donors at a blood
bank in a large city. During a particular month, 180 first-time donors gave
blood there, of whom 175 were tested seronegative: a simple random sample
of 60 persons was selected without replacement out of the seronegative first
time donors and were asked to give blood again after a year, when 9 were
found to be seropositive. Estimate the incidence of HIV seroconversion and
its standard error (Levy and Lemeshaw, Exercise 7.10, adapted).
7. Show that in a simple random sample, unbiased estimators of the universe
mean and universe total of a study variable have the same coefficient of
variation, and that the CV of the estimated number of units possessing a
certain attribute is the same as that of the estimated proportion of such
units in the universe.
8. Table 2.14 gives the number of persons belonging to 43 kraals which form a
random sample of 325 kraals in the Mondora Reserve in Southern Rhodesia
(now Zimbabwe) and also the numbers of persons absent from these kraals.

(a) Estimate (i) the total number of persons belonging to the reserve,
(ii) the number absent from the reserve, and (iii) the proportion of
persons absent, and their standard errors.
(b) What would be the estimated standard error of the proportion of
persons absent had the sample been a sample of individuals selected
directly from all the persons belonging to the reserve? (Yates, Ex­
amples 6.9b and 7.8b, modified to “with replacement” sampling for
computation of variance; note the differences in notations in Yates’
book and this book).
68 Chapter 2

Table 2.14: Total number of persons including absentees), y, and number

of absentees, x; data from srs of 43 kraals

y X y X y X y X

95 18 89 7 75 12 159 36
79 14 57 9 69 16 54 26
30 6 132 26 63 9 69 27
45 3 47 7 83 14 61 2
28 5 43 17 124 25 164 69
142 15 116 24 31 3 132 41
125 18 65 16 96 45 82 10
81 9 103 18 42 25 33 8
43 12 52 16 85 35 86 22
53 4 67 27 91 28 51 19
148 31 64 12 73 13
Total 3427 799

Source: Yates, Examples 6.9b and 7.8b (adapted).

The following corrected sums of squares and products are given:

SSy, = 55,199.0; SSx, = 7218.5; SPy.x, = 13, 286.5.

9. Table 2.15 shows the number of persons (jyx), the weekly family income (x,),
and the weekly expenditure on food (w.) in a simple random sample of 33
families selected from 660 families. Estimate from the sample (a) the total
number of persons, (b) the total weekly family income, (c) the total weekly
expenditure on food, (d) the average number of persons per family, (e)
the average weekly expenditure on food per family, (f) the average weekly
expenditure on food per person, (g) the average weekly income per person,
and (h) the proportion of income that is spent on food, along with their
standard errors (adapted from Cochran, Example, pp. 33-34).
The following raw sums of squares and products are given: ^2 y,2 =
533; £x2 = 177,524; £ w2 x = 28,224; £>,x. = 8889; = 3595.3;
w t = 66,678.0.
i,
Simple Random Sampling 69

Table 2.15: Size, weekly income, and food cost of the srs of 33 families
selected from 660 families

Family Size Income Food Family Size Income Food

number y> Xi cost number yt x, cost
i w, i w,

1 2 $62 $14.3 18 4 $83 $36.0

2 3 62 20.8 19 2 85 20.6
3 3 87 22.7 20 4 73 27.7
4 5 65 30.5 21 2 66 25.9
5 4 58 41.2 22 5 58 23.3
6 7 92 28.2 23 3 77 39.8
7 2 88 24.2 24 4 69 16.8
8 4 79 30.0 25 7 65 37.8
9 2 83 24.2 26 3 77 34.8
10 5 62 44.4 27 3 69 28.7
11 3 63 13.4 28 6 95 63.0
12 6 62 19.8 29 2 77 19.5
13 4 60 29.4 30 2 69 21.6
14 4 75 27.1 31 6 69 18.2
15 2 90 22.2 32 4 67 20.1
16 5 75 37.7 33 2 63 20.7
17 3 69 22.6
Total 123 $2394 $907.2

Source: Cochran, Example pp. 33-34.

CHAPTER 3

Ratio and Regression

Estimators

3.1 Introduction

If ancillary information is available for each of the units of the universe,

it can, under suitable conditions, be used in several ways to improve the
efficiency of the estimators of the study variable. One way, to be described
in this chapter, is to use the ancillary information, after sample selection,
in providing what are known as ratio estimators and regression estimators.
The other, described in Chapter 5, is to use the ancillary information in
sample selection and also in estimation. The two could be used in combi­
nation for two ancillary variables.

3.2 Ratio method of estimation

From a simple random sample (with replacement) of n units out of the

universe of N units, an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y has been
seen to be
¿y.” = = Nÿ (3.1)

If, however, the values of the ancillary variable z are available for all the
units of the universe, then

Z= (3.2)

the universe total for the ancillary variable is also known, and this infor­
mation can be utilized to improve the efficiency of the estimators relating
to the study variable.

71
72 Chapter 3

An unbiased estimator of the universe total Z is first obtained from the

sample, namely,
1 n NT n
z* = - V z* = - V Zi = Nz in srs (3.3)
n n
As an estimator of the universe ratio

flv/z = y/Z (3.4)

the ratio of the estimators of the universe totals of the study and the an­
cillary variables is taken,

Ty{z = I/o/^O srs (3.5)

As Y = Z ■ Y/Z = Z ■ Ry/z, the ratio estimator of Y is defined as

y* R = Z • ry/z = Z ■ Pq/zq = Z y/z in srs (3.6)

(the subscript lR' in y* R standing for ‘ratio’).

The sampling variance of ry/z is, from equation (2.22),

*
= K + ~ ^Ry/z^z^/Z2

A variance estimator of ryjz is, from equation (2.49),

Sry/. = +ry/X- -2ry/^yo^o’)/z2 (3-7)

= N2(SSyi -I- r2fzSSzi - 2rSPyiZi)/n(n - 1)Z2

in srswr (3-8)

as the value of Z is known.

The variance of yR is

a2 (3.9)
Vr
an estimator of which is

~ (SvZ+ry/zSzZ ^ry/zsy*z') (3.10)

= N2(SSyi + r2/zSSzi - 2ry/zSPyizi')/n(n - 1)
in srswr (3.11)
Ratio and Regression Estimators 73

The following points should be noted:

1. Estimators of the type y^, equation (3.6), are known as ratio estimators,
obtained by the ratio method of estimation. Such ratio estimators should
be distinguished from the estimators of ratios (of the type of equations
(2.33), (2.48), or (3.5)), where both the numerator and the denominator
are estimated from the sample. The two issues are related, but different.
2. The ratio estimator y^ is subject to the same observations as those for the
estimation of a ratio (note 3, section 2.7). The ratio estimator y^ is biased
generally: it becomes unbiased if the linear regression of y£ and Zq passes
through the origin (0,0). An estimator of the bias (this estimator is also
generally biased) is

(ry/zsz* ~ sy
*
)/^
z (3.12)

3. The variance estimator of y^ is valid for large sample generally, say when
n > 30.
4. Correction for bias. If the sample is drawn in the form of k independent
sub-samples, each of the same size m (so that n = mk) and giving unbiased
estimators y* and z* (j = 1,2, of the universe totals Y and Z
respectively, two estimators of the universe ratio YfZ are

r = yo/zo (3.13)
and
m
r' = ^2rj/m (3.14)

where j/0* = £2™ zo = £3™ z}/m> rJ = V *

/ Zj-
Noting that in large samples the bias of the estimator r' is m times that of
the estimator r, an approximately unbiased estimator of the bias of r is
(r'-r)/(m- 1)
and an almost unbiased estimator of the universe ratio (unbiased up to the
second order of approximation) is
r" = (mr — rz)/(m — 1) (3.15)
Thus an almost unbiased ratio estimator (Quenouille-Murthy-Nanjamma
estimator) of Y is
Zr" (3.16)

Again, with the selected sample in the form of m independent and inter­
penetrating sub-samples, a ratio estimator of Y, corrected for bias is (vide
T.J. Rao) is
»r = 1r + (»» - - 1) (3.17)
74 Chapter 3

where

y* R = Z-Ty/z (3.18)

For a simple random sample of n units out of the universe of N units, the
ratio estimator of the universe total Y, corrected for bias, is

Vr = Vr + (Vo ~rzo)/(n - 1)
= y*R +N(ÿ-rz)/(n - 1) (3.19)

where
n n
r = ^r,/n = ^2(y,/2r,)/n (3.20)

There are other methods of debiasing the ratio estimators.

5. In obtaining the ratio of two universe totals Y and X, the use of ratio
estimators of the two totals is equivalent of using the unbiased estimators
of the totals, for

ry/x = Vr/zr = Zry/z/Zrx/z = yô/xo (3.21)

We shall, however see later in Parts II-IV that in stratified and multistage
sampling, ratio estimators may be applied at different levels of aggregation.
6. In a large srs, the ratio estimator would be more efficient than the simple
unbiased estimator if the correlation coefficient between the study vari­
able and the ancillary variable is greater than 1/2(CV of the ancillary
variable/CV of the study variable). For example, if the ancillary variable
represents the value of the study variable at some time past (such as the
population in the previous census while estimating the current population),
the two CVs could be taken as about equal and the ratio estimator would
be superior if the correlation coefficient exceeds 1/2. On the other hand,
suppose that the CV of the ancillary variable is double that of the study
variable: the ratio estimator would then be less precise, for the correlation
coefficient cannot exceed 1.
7. With a negative correlation between the study and the ancillary variables,
the ratio method of estimation will be extremely inefficient: in that case,
another method, the product method of estimation, may be used (see,
Cochran, section 6.21; Murthy (1967), section 10.8; Singh and Chaudhary,
section 6.10; and Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 5.11).

Example 3.1

For the same data as for Example 2.3, where a simple random sample of 4 vil­
lages was taken from 30 villages, use the information given in Table 3.1 on the
Ratio and Regression Estimators 75

Table 3.1: Previous census population of the srs of 4 villages in Examples

2.3

Village serial no. 19 24 18 15

Previous census population zt 122 97 102 98

population data of a census, conducted five years previously, to obtain ratio es­
timates of the total numbers of households and persons in the 30 villages. The
total population of the 30 villages in the previous census was 2815.
Here N = 30; n = 4; Z = 2815. The reader should verify the following:
z, = 419; z = 104.75; z2 = 44, 301; y,zt = 47, 597; h,zt = 9102;
and the corrected sums of squares and products: SSz, =410.75; SPyxzx = 354.75;
SPhxzx = 93.50. The other required computations have already been made for
Example 2.3.
From equation (3.5), ryjz = yi/ z, = 451/419 = 1.076372, so that the
ratio estimate of the current total population, using the previous census popula­
tion, is, from equation (3.6),

yR = Z • rylz = 2815 x 1.076372 = 3029.99 or 3030

The estimated variance of yR is, from equation (3.11), 302 x 3.079132, so that
the estimated standard error of YR is 30 x 1.755 = 52.650, and the estimated CV
of YR is 52.65/3030 or 1.74 per cent.
Similarly, the ratio estimate of the total number of households is hR = Z ■
Th/z = 2815 x 0.205251 = 577.78 or 578, with estimated standard error of 24.345,
and estimated CV of 4.21 per cent.
Note the following points:
1. The estimated average household size, using the ratio estimates, is the ratio
estimate of the current total population divided by the ratio estimate of
the total number of households, i.e. 3030 ¿-578 = 5.24, the same figures as
obtained by using simple unbiased estimates of totals in Example 2.3 (note
5 of section 3.2).
2. The ratio estimates of the total numbers of persons and households have
smaller standard errors than the unbiased estimates (in Example 2.3) and
the ratio estimates are closer to the universe values.
3. Correction for bias. To obtain ratio estimates of totals corrected for bias,
we need the additional computations shown in Table 3.2.
The ratio estimate of the total current population, corrected for bias,
is, from equation (3.19),

y*R = Vr + N(y ~ ry/zz)/(n - 1) = 3048.71 or 3049.

76 Chapter 3

Table 3.2: Computation of the ratio estimated, corrected for bias: data of
Example 3.1

Village serial no.

19 24 18 15 Average

Ratio h,/z, 0.204918 0.185567 0.225467 0.204082 0.2050085

Ratio ÿi/z, 1.040984 1.082474 1.039110 1.071429 1.0584992

Similarly, the ratio estimate of the total number of households, corrected

for bias, is
hR = h* R + N(h -rh/zz)/(n - 1) = 578.034 or 578.
Here the correction is marginal.

3.3 Regression method of estimation

Another method of using the ancillary information at the estimating stage

which is more general than the ratio method is the regression method of
estimation.
The estimated linear regression coefficient /3
* for the regression of on
zo is
/?• = SPy-z'/SSz' (3.22)
= SPy{Zi/SSzi in srswr (3.23)
The regressions estimator of the universe total Y is defined as

VRe, = !/;+r(z-z;) (3.24)

where Z is the known universe total of the ancillary variable.
The variance of y* Reg in large samples is

<$■„ = - P2) (3.25)

where p is the correlation coefficient between the variables y and z.

An estimator of the variance of ypeg, valid in large samples, is

2 _ Zn[(y* -Vo)- - *o)]2

(3.26)
n(n - 2)
Ratio and Regression Estimators 77

(3.27)
n(n — 2)
Notes
1. The regression method of estimation is more general than the ratio method:
the two become equivalent only when the (linear) regression of y on z passes
through the origin (0,0). The ratio method is, however, simpler to compute
and is preferred when the regression line is expected to pass through the
origin, i.e. when y is expected to be proportional to z.
2. Although the regression method is more general than the ratio method, it
is not much used in practice in large-scale surveys for two reasons: first,
the computation of the estimates is more complex, and secondly, the gain
in efficiency is not very marked in many cases as the regression line passes
either through the origin or very close to it.
3. When the regression of y on z is perfectly linear, i.e. when the correlation
coefficient p = 1, the variance of the regression estimator becomes zero;
and when y and z are uncorrelated, the variance is the same as that of the
unbiased estimator.
4. In some textbooks, in the formula for the estimated variance of the regres­
sion estimator, the divisor n(n — 1) is used instead of n(n — 2). Although in
large samples the difference in these two estimators is negligible, the later
divisor has been suggested here, as in the regression method two estima­
tors - the y-intercept on z and the (linear) regression coefficient of y on z
- are to be computed from the sample, leading to the loss of two degrees
of freedom; it is also standard in regression theory and is known to give an
unbiased estimator of the error variance in the universe regression equation
if the universe is infinite and the regression is linear (Cochran, section 7.3).
5. In practice, the estimated variance of the regression estimator, namely,
s2. can be greater than that of the ratio estimator, namely, s2* ; in
yReg
fact, the greatest value the ratio s2» Is2* can take is (n — l)/(n — 2),
yReg y Reg
when the y-intercept on z happens to equal zero (that is, the regression
line of y on z passes through the origin), so that /?"* = 2«>and
the numerators of the variance formulae (3.11) and (3.27) are identical.
6. If the regression of y on z is non-linear, the regression estimator is subject
to a bias of the order 1/n, so that the ratio of the bias to the standard
error is small for large sample. The bias is equal to —covariance (/? *, Zq).

Example 3.2

For the same data as for Example 3.1, obtain the regression estimates of the
total numbers of households and persons, using the data on the previous census
population, along with their standard errors. Here N = 30; n = 4; j/q = 3382.5;
= 645; z0* = 30 x 104.75 = 3142.5; Z = 2815; SSyt = 324.75; SSht = 29;
SSz, = 410.75; SPytz, = 354.75; SPhtzt = 93.5.
78 Chapter 3

The estimated (linear) regressions coefficient of y on z is, from equation (3.23),

* = SPytZt/SSzt = 0.863664
/?
The regression estimate of the current total population, is from equation
(3.24),
i/Heg = yo+/3
*
(Z~Zo)
= 3382.5 + 0.863664(2815 - 3142.5)
= 3099.65
or 3100, and the estimated variance of y/teg is, from equation (3.27), 302 x
2.295774, so that the estimated standard error of y^eg is 30 x 1.515 = 45.45,
with the estimated CV of 1.47 per cent, somewhat less than that for the unbi­
ased estimate (4.61 per cent).
Similarly, the regression estimate of the total number of households, using the
previous census population, is 570 with an estimated standard error 29.46 (and
an estimated CV of 5.16 per cent). Note that in this case the estimated CV
though less than that for the unbiased estimate (7.00 per cent), is larger than
that for the ratio estimate (4.21 per cent).

Further reading
Cochran, chapters 6 and 7; Deming (1950), chapter 4; Foreman, chapter 4; Hansen
et al. (1953), vol. I, section 4C and 11.2, and vol. II, sections 4.11-4.19; Hedayat
and Sinha, chapter 6; Kish (1965), chapter 2; Murthy (1967), chapters 10 and 11;
Rao, P.S.R.S. (1988); Singh and Chaudhary, chapters 6 and 7; Sukhatme et al.
(1984), chapters 5 and 6; Thompson, S.K., chapters 7 and 8; Yates, sections 6.8,
6.9, 6.12, 7.8 and 7.12.

Exercises
1. A simple random sample of 2055 (= n) farms, drawn from the universe of
75,308 (= A) farms to obtain the total number of cattle, gave the following
data:
Sample total number of cattle,
= 25,751
Sample total area of the 2055 farms,
zt = 62, 989 acres
Actual total area of the 75,308 farms,
Z = 2, 353, 365 acres
The corrected sums of squares and products were

^2 I/.2 = 596,737; zt2 = 2,937,851; = 1,146,391.

Obtain the ratio estimate of the total number of cattle, along with the
standard error, and compare the results of the unbiased estimate (United
Nations Manual, Example 7.i).
Ratio and Regression Estimators 79

2. For the same sample as in exercise 1, additional information obtained from

a census was available on the number of cattle (w) five years ago in the
75,308 farms.
Sample total number of cattle in the 2055 farms five years ago, wt =
23, 642; w2 = 504,150; y,w, = 499, 172.
Actual total number of cattle in the 75,308 farms five years ago, W =
882,610.
Obtain the ratio estimate of the total number of cattle and its standard
error (United Nations Manual, Example 7,ii).
3. For the same data as for exercise 1, obtain the regression estimate of the
total number of cattle and its standard error (United Nations Manual,
Example 9.i).
4. For the same data as for exercise 3.3, obtain the regression estimate of
the total number of cattle and its standard error (United Nations Manual,
Example 9.ii).
5. For the same sample as for exercise 4, Chapter 2, use the previous census
population figures, given in Appendix IV, to obtain ratio estimates of the
universe characteristics, with the standard errors.
6. Using the same data as for exercise 5, obtain regression estimates of the
universe characteristics, with the standard errors.
CHAPTER 4

Systematic Sampling

4.1 Introduction

One operationally convenient method of selecting a one in k sample from

a list of units is to select first a random number between 1 and k and then
select the unit with this serial number and every fcth unit afterwards: thus,
to take a 5 per cent sample of households during a population census, one
would first choose a random number between 1 and 20 (here the sampling
fraction is 0.05, so k = 1/0.05 = 20); if the random number (also called
the random start) is 12, then households numbered 12, 32, 52, 72, 92, 112,
and so on will constitute a 5 per cent systematic sample. This procedure is
known as systematic sampling and ensures that each universe unit has the
same chance of being included in the sample: the constant k is known as the
sampling interval and is generally taken as the integer nearest to N/n, the
inverse of the sampling fraction. This method has several advantages. First,
it is operationally convenient, especially when, as in multi-stage sample
designs, information on the lower stage units, especially the ultimate and
the penultimate stages (such as households or families or farms) is not
available at the central office and the enumerators have to list these units
and to draw samples from them. Second, N, the total number of universe
units, need not be known beforehand and a systematic sample may be
selected along with the listing of the universe units or with a census, if
the sampling fraction is fixed beforehand. Third, a systematic sample is
spread out more evenly over the universe, so that it is likely to produce a
sample that is more representative and more efficient than a simple random
sample.
There are two main disadvantages of systematic sampling. First, vari­
ance estimators cannot be obtained from a single systematic sample; and
second, a bad arrangement of the units may produce a very inefficient sam­
ple.

81
82 Chapter 4

Systematic sampling often suggests itself when there is a sequence of

units occurring naturally in space (trees in a forest) or time (landing of
fishing crafts on the coast).
In this chapter, we deal with the selection and estimating procedure of
systematic samples.

4.2 Linear and circular systematic sampling

To illustrate, let us consider the universe of six households, a, b, c, d, e and

f, with respective sizes of 8, 6, 3, 5, 4, and 4. The linear systematic sample
of 2 households from this universe consists of one of the following: ad, be,
and cf, with the respective average household sizes of 6.5, 5.0, and 3.5. The
average of the sample averages is 5 (the universe average), showing that the
sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the universe mean, and so also for
the totals.
Linear systematic sampling has one limitation when the sampling inter­
val is not an integer. In the above example, if the universe had consisted of
5 households a, b, c, d, and e, the sampling interval 5/2 is not an integer,
and we can take it either as 2 or 3. Taking it as 2, the possible samples
are ace, and bd; and taking it as 3, the possible samples are ad, be, and c.
Thus the sample size does not remain fixed in linear systematic sampling
when the sampling interval is not an integer. Although unbiased estimators
of totals and averages could still be obtained in such a case by using modi­
fied formulae, a more satisfactory and simpler procedure is that of circular
systematic sampling, by selecting first a random number between 1 and N
and then selecting this and every A?th unit (where k is the integer nearest to
N/n) in a cyclical manner until n sample units are selected. In the above
example of sampling 2 households systematically from 5 households, the
possible circular systematic samples with 2 as the sampling interval are ac,
bd, ce, da, and eb; with 3 as the sampling interval, the possible circular
systematic samples are ad, be, ca, db, and ec (Figure 4.1). The sample
size thus remains constant. The usual estimators of totals and averages
would also be unbiased. The circular systematic sample reduces to linear
systematic sampling when N/n is an integer: it is thus more general, and
is to be preferred.
Note that in the first example, unlike the selection of 2 units by simple
random sampling without replacement, the combinations ab, ac, be, bd, bf,
cd, ce, de, df, and ef do not occur in systematic sampling.
Systematic Sampling 83

Figure 4.1: Diagrammatic representation of circular systematic sampling.

4.3 Sample mean and variance

4.3.1 Mean and variance estimators

From a universe comprising N — nk units, it is proposed to select a sys­
tematic sample of 1 in k. The universe units are shown schematically in
Table 4.1, with k columns and n rows, the columns 1 to k showing the
random starts (or clusters), each column containing n units. A random
number is chosen between 1 and k, and the set of n units in the selected
column constitutes one systematic sample. Or in other words, every one of
the k columns representing the k possible systematic samples has an equal
chance (= 1/k) of being selected.
Let yrj denote the value of the unit with the serial number r + (j — l)k
in the universe (r = 1,2,..., k; j = 1,2,... ,n). If r is the chosen random
number, then the sample mean is

(4.1)

and the universe mean is

(4.2)

i.e. the mean of the sample means.

It can be shown that the sample mean yr is an unbiased estimator of
the universe mean Y.
84 Chapter 4

Table 4.1: Serial numbering of the universe units showing the systematic
samples of n units from N (= nk) units

Row Random start (cluster number)

number 1 2 r ... k

1 1 2 r k
2 1+k 2+k r 4- k ... 2k

J 1 + (j - 2 4- (j — 1)
* r + (j - l)k ... jk

n 1 4- (n — 1)£ 2 4- (n — l)k r 4- (n — l)k nk

Noting that
1 k n
-7)2
r=1 j=1

= I 52 ¿(V'-i-Vr)2 (4.3)
r=l r=l j = l

= °b + (4.4)
where cr2 is the between-sample variance and cr2 is the within-sample vari­
ance, defined respectively by the two terms on the right-hand side of equa­
tion (4.3), then the sampling variance of the sample mean is
crt2 = <T2 - (4.5)
The sampling variance of the sample mean can also be expressed in
terms of the intraclass correlation coefficient between pairs of sample units
in a column
_ 52r=i ~Y)(yrj' — ^)
?c kn(n — l)cr2
so that

= — [1 + (n - l)/9c] (4-7)
Tl

Since <r2 > <r2, we note that pc must lie between — l/(n — 1) and 1.
 Systematic Sampling 85

4.3.2 Comparison of systematic and simple random sampling

As the sampling variance of the sample mean in srs is cr2/n in sampling
with replacement and [(A — n)/(N — l)]<r2/n in sampling without replace­
ment, the relative efficiency of systematic sampling compared to srs with
replacement is
1
(4-8)
1 + (n - l)pc

and compared to srs without replacement is

N— n 1
(4.9)
A-l ‘ l + (n-l)pc

4.3.3 Discussion of results

Expression (4.5) shows that the sampling variance of the sample mean in
systematic sampling will be reduced if the within-sample variance is in­
creased: this condition will be satisfied when the units within each system­
atic sample are as heterogeneous as possible with respect to study variable.
This is also seen from Expression (4.7), for <r2 will be zero when pc takes the
minimum value of — l/(n — 1), i.e. when there obtains the highest degree of
negative correlation between pairs of units within each systematic sample.
When pc — — 1/(N — 1), srswor and systematic sampling will bet equally
efficient; systematic sampling will be more or less efficient than srswor ac­
cording as pc is less than or greater than —1/(7V — 1). But when pc = 1,
systematic sampling will be most inefficient, for then one unit will provide
as much information as n units.
In practice, it is difficult to know what value pc will take in units oc­
curring in a natural sequence. When the units can be re-arranged before
sampling such that units homogeneous in respect of the study variable (or
an ancillary variable that has a high degree of association with the study
variable) are put together this will ensure heterogeneity within each system­
atic sample. Such a re-arrangement need not be physical in the sense that
units that were neighboring before the re-arrangement need not remain so
afterwards.
Thus, in the socio-economic inquiry of rural households in the Indian
National Sample Survey (1964-65), in a sample village the households were
classified according to size, namely, (I) 1-4 persons, and (II) 5 and above,
and according to the means of livelihood, namely, (1) agricultural labor, (2)
self-employed in agriculture, and (3) others. They were then re-arranged
according to the following combinations of the household size and means
of livelihood: 1-3; 1-2; 1-1; II-l; II-2; and II-3. This ensured that small and
86 Chapter 4

large households with different means of livelihood were proportionately

represented in a systematic sample of households.

4.3.4 Periodicity of units

If a universe has periodic variations, then a systematic sample whose in­
terval coincides with the length of the period will be extremely inefficient,
but if the interval is made to be an odd multiple of half the period, a very
efficient systematic sample will result. If, for example, sales in markets are
high on Saturdays and low on Tuesdays, a systematic sample of one in six
working days that includes only Saturdays or Tuesdays will be very ineffi­
cient. In such cases, instead of selecting a sample random sample, it would
be better to take advantage of the knowledge by appropriately choosing
the interval in systematic selection so as to break step with periodicity by
including both the high and the low phases.

4.4 Estimation of variance

In general, it is not possible to estimate from one sample the variance of

the estimators obtained from the systematic sample. (This is because the
procedure does not ensure the inclusion of each of the NC% pairs of units of
the universe at least in one of the samples, which is a necessary condition
for the existence of an unbiased estimator of a variance.) If, however, two
or more systematic samples are taken, each with a separate random start,
the combined estimator and its variance are obtained from the fundamental
theorems of section 2.7.
In practice, moreover, the variance estimators for the simple random
sampling (without replacement) may be used: these estimators will be un­
biased only if the arrangement of the units is at random.

Example 4.1

(a) From village number 8 in state I (Appendix IV), select a circular systematic
sample of 5 households and for the 24 households in the village obtain
estimates of the total number of persons, total monthly income and average
daily income per person; also obtain estimates of standard errors of these
estimates, assuming the data came from a simple random sample.
(b) Draw with a fresh random start a second circular systematic sample of 5
households from the village, and obtain estimates with standard errors for
the same characteristics.
(c) From the two circular systematic samples, obtain combined estimates of
the characteristics along with their standard errors.
Systematic Sampling 87

Table 4.2: Size and daily income of the circular systematic sample of 5
households from 24 households in village no. 8 and state I (Appendix IV)

Household serial no. 5 10 14 19 24

Number of persons (j/j) 4 5 4 1 4
Daily income ($) (xj 40 52 39 20 42

(a) The random start (i.e. the random number between 1 and 24) chosen was
14; the sampling interval is 24/5 or 5 to the nearest integer, so that the
five sample households are those with serial numbers 14, (14 + 5) = 19,
(19 + 5) = 24, 5 and (5 + 5) = 10. The data for these five households are
given in Table 4.2.
Here N = 24 and n = 5 so that f = n/N = 0.2083. Hence we have
y, = 18; y = yi/n = 18/5 = 3.6; i, = $193; x = xt/n =
$193/5 = $38.6; ^ny2 = 74; SSyt = 9.2; x2 = 7989: SSxt = 539.2;
ytx, = 764; SPyiX, = 69.2.
The estimated total number of persons in the village is given by
yo = Ny = 24 x 3.6 = 86.4 or 86
The estimated variance of y£ is, from equation (2.51),
s2. = (1 - f)N2SSyi/n(n - 1) = 0.79167 x 242 x 9.2/20
= 0.79167 x 242 x 0.46 = 242 x 0.364168

Therefore, an estimated standard error of j/q is

= 24 x 0.603 = 14.472;
and an estimated CV of y$ is
/y^ = 16.75 per cent.
sy*
The estimated total daily income of all the 24 households in the village is
Xq = Nx = 24 x $38.6 = $926.40 or $926
and estimated variance of Iq is
s2. = (1 - f)N2SSxi/n{n - 1) = 0.79167 x 242 x 26.95
= 242 x 21.335506
Therefore, an estimated standard error of x$ is
88 Chapter 4

Table 4.3: Size and daily income of the second circular systematic sample
of 5 households selected from 24 households in village no. 8 in state I
(Appendix IV)

Household serial no. 3 8 13 18 23

Number of persons (y,) 3 6 6 5 4
Daily income ($) (z,) 32 62 65 53 47

and an estimated CV of Xq is 11.97 per cent.

The estimated average daily income per person is given by the estimated
total monthly income divided by the estimated total number of persons,
i.e.
r = Xo/yo = $38.6/3.6 = $10.72
An estimated variance of r is, from equation (2.53),

4 = ^-f)(SSx, + ^SSy,-2rSPI.y,) = Q 153267

n(n - 1)/
Therefore, an estimated standard error of r is sr = $0,392 and an estimated
CV of r is 3.66 per cent.
(b) The second circular systematic sample is drawn by selecting another ran­
dom start, 51/24, remainder 3; so the selected households are numbered 3,
8, 13, 18, and 23. The data for these households are given in Table 4.3.
The reader should verify the following results: j/q = 115.2 persons;
sy> = 12.45 persons; x^ = $1243.20; = $125.86; r = $10.79; sr = $0.20.
(c) From the fundamental theorem of section 2.7, the combined estimate of
total number of persons is | (86.4 + 115.2) = 100.8 or 101 persons, with
an estimated standard error of, from equation (2.8), | |86.4 — 115.2| = 14.4
and an estimated CV of 14.29 per cent.
The combined estimate of the total daily income is

|($926.4 + $1243.2) = $1084.8

with an estimated error

||$926.4 - $1243.2) = $158.4

and an estimated CV of 14.60 per cent.

The combined estimate of average daily income per person is

$1084.8/100.8 = $10.76
Systematic Sampling 89

an estimated variance of which is

[(926.4 - 1243.2)2 + (10.76)2(86.4 - 115.2)2
-10.76(926.4 - 1243.2)(86.4 - 115.2)]
= 0.1176
[4 x (100.8)2]
so that an estimated standard error of $0,333 and the estimated CV is 3.09
per cent.
Further reading
Bellhouse (1988b); Cochran, chapter 8; Hansen et al. (1953), vol. I, section
11.8; Kish (1965), chapter 4; Murthy (1967), chapter 5; Sukhatme et al. (1984),
chapter 10; Yates, sections 3.6, 6.20, and 7.18.

Exercise

1. Out of 24 villages in an area, two linear systematic samples of 4 villages

each were selected. The total area under wheat in each of these sample
villages is given in Table 4.4. Estimate the total area under what in the
area (Murthy (1967), Problem 7.3, adapted).

Table 4.4: Area under wheat of the two linear systematic samples of 4
villages each from 24 villages in an area

Linear Sample village

systematic
sample 1 2 3 4

1 427 326 481 445

2 335 412 503 348

Source: Murthy (1967), Problem 7.3 (adapted).

CHAPTER 5

Varying Probability Sampling:

Sampling with Probability
Proportional to Size

5.1 Introduction

In simple random and systematic sampling, the only information required

on the universe units prior to sampling is the serial listing. For systematic
sampling, although it was indicated that a re-arrangement of the universe
units according to the values of an ancillary variable might provide more
efficient estimators, only the relative magnitudes rather than the actual
values of the ancillary variable are required.
It would seem reasonable to suppose that if the values of an ancillary
variable related to the study variable were known for all the N units, the
information could be utilized in selecting the sample so as to provide estima­
tors with greater efficiency than those from simple random or systematic
sampling. In contrast to the sampling procedures considered so far that
assign the same probability of selection to all the units of the universe,
another procedure will now be outlined that utilizes the values of the an­
cillary variable such that unequal probabilities of selection are assigned to
the universe units; the estimating procedure adopted ensures unbiased esti­
mators of totals and averages with much greater efficiency, under favorable
conditions, than those from simple random or systematic sampling.
In this chapter we shall deal with the most common type of sampling
with varying (or unequal) probabilities, namely, sampling with probability
proportional to “size” (pps), the “size” being the value of the ancillary
variable. We shall often refer to a sample so selected as a pps sample, and,
unless otherwise specified shall deal with pps sampling with replacement.

91
92 Chapter 5

Table 5.1: Selection of one household with probability proportional to size

from a hypothetical universe of six households in Table 2.1

Household Household Household Probability of

no. identification size selection
t y> = y*/Y!< v«

1 a 8 8/30
2 b 6 6/30
3 c 3 3/30
4 d 5 5/30
5 e 4 4/30
6 f 4 4/30

Total - 30 1

5.2 Selection of one unit with probability proportional to size

Consider the universe of 6 households with respective household sizes given

in Table 5.1. Let us draw one household from this universe with probability
proportional to household size in order to estimate the total size (total
number of persons): if, of course, the sizes of the households were known,
we would not need to draw a sample to estimate the total size, but this will
illustrate the logic of pps sampling. If households are selected with pps,
the probability of selection of any household is its size divided by the total
size of the universe (30); these probabilities are shown in the last column
of Table 5.1. Note that the total of the probabilities is 1, as it should be.
In simple random sampling, the probability of selection of a unit at
any draw is 1/N, where N is the total number of universe units, and the
unbiased estimator of the universe total Y for the study variable is obtained
from any draw by multiplying the value of the unit drawn (¡t/ * ) by the total
number of universe units (N), or in other words, on dividing yi by the
probability of selection (= 1/N, a constant in srs) of the unit i. Similarly, in
varying probability sampling, the unbiased estimator of Y is obtained from
the ¿th draw on dividing the value of the ¿th unit (t/,) by the probability
of selection i?i (which varies from unit to unit in the universe); thus the
unbiased estimator of the universe total Y in varying probability sampling
Varying Probability Sampling 93

is

yi=Vi/^i (5-1)
If the values yi of all the universe units were known before sampling and
sampling is carried out with probability proportional to yi, i.e.
N
*i=yi/^yi (5.2)

then the unbiased estimator y* given in estimating equation (5.1) becomes

N
Vi = yi/^i = 52 Vi=Y
the universe total. In our example, if one draw of pps sampling gives
household c, the probability of selection of which is then the unbiased
estimator of the total universe size from this sampled household is 3 -? =
30, the actual universe total.
If, instead of drawing a unit with probability proportional to its actual
value, we had drawn it with probability proportional to an ancillary vari­
able, whose size (z,) is related to the unit value (?/,) by the exact relation

Zi = (3yi

where (3 is a positive constant, the probability of selection

N N N
ppzi = Zi/Zi - Pyi//?52 Pi -yi/^ yi - PPVi

remains the same, and would give the same results as probability propor­
tional to the value of the study variable, i.e. there would be no sampling
error.
The foregoing gives the clue to the determining factor for selection with
pps. We cannot, of course, know the actual “sizes” of the study variable,
but if we can find an ancillary variable, the values of which are known to
be roughly proportional to the values of the study variable, then we may
select the units with probability proportional to the values of the ancillary
variable in order to obtain estimators with greater efficiency than those
obtained from srs. the ancillary variable chosen should be such that its
values are known prior to sampling and the two are linearly related with
the regression line passing through the origin (0,0). If there is a perfect
positive correlation between the study and the ancillary variables but the
regression line does not pass through the origin (0,0), sampling with pps of
the ancillary variable will not necessarily be more efficient than srs.
94 Chapter 5

Some examples of study and ancillary variables are as follows:

Study variable Ancillary variable

Current population Previous census population

Current number of births Geographical area (less suitable)
Current total income Previous census population
Area under a crop Previous census population
Factory production Total geographical area or cultivated area
Number of workers

5.3 Estimating procedures

If we draw a sample of n units (n > 2) with replacement out of the universe

of N units, with the initial probability of selection of the ¿th unit (i =
1,2,..., AT)
N
7T» = Zi/^2Zi = (52)
where z, is the value (“size”) of an ancillary variable, the ¿th selected sample
unit — 1,2,... ,n) having the value of the study variable will provide
an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y by the estimating equation

y< = ~ = z ~ (51)
7Tj Zi

and where Z = zt .
By the fundamental theorem of section 2.7, a combined unbiased esti­
mator of Y is

The sampling variance of y£ is

an unbiased estimator of which is

n
= 52^«
* “ Vo)2/n(” - 1) (5-5)

An unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y = Y/N is

V*o = y’a/N (5.6)

Varying Probability Sampling 95

with an unbiased variance estimator

4: = »«/№ <5-7)
From the same sample, estimators of the total and the mean of another
study variable may be computed from the estimating formulae of the above
types. An unbiased estimator of the covariance of the estimators j/q and Xq
of the two universe totals Y and X is
n
sVo^o = £(&
* " ^)(®
* “ xo)/n(n “ 1) (5-8)

A consistent, but generally biased, estimator of the universe ratio R =

YjX of two universe totals Y and X is the ratio of the sample estimators

r = i/o/^o (5-9)
and an estimator of the variance of r is
»? = (^.+^¿.-2«,;,;)/^

= (SSÿ,- + r2SSx"-2rSPÿ-x')/n(n-l)x"02 (5.10)

Notes
1. Theoretical proofs are given in Appendix II, section A2.3.7.
2. Estimator J/Ô (equation 5.3) was introduced by Hansen and Hurwitz (1943)
and often referred to as “the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator.”
3. pps sampling can be made without replacement, but the estimating formu­
lae are rather complicated. Two relatively simple estimators are, however,
mentioned for the case of two sample units (n = 2).
(a) Ordered (Raj) estimator. Suppose the two units selected (in order)
with pps and without replacement have the respective values yi and
ÿ2 and the probabilities of selection th and 7r2. Then an unbiased
ordered estimator of the universe total Y is

with an unbiased variance estimator

(b) Unordered (Murthy) estimator. If yi and y2 are the values of the two
sample units selected with pps and without replacement with proba­
bilities of section ttj and %2 respectively, then an unbiased unordered
estimator of Y is
1
2 — Tl — TT2
96 Chapter 5

with an unbiased variance estimator

(1 - 7F1) (1 - TT2)(1 ~ 7T1 - TT2) i yi _ Jfcl 2
(2 - TTi - %2)2 L TTj 7T2 J

With the advent of electronic computers and the use of sample de­
signs with two sample first-stage units in each stratum (after the
strata have been formed in a desirable manner, to be detailed later),
the unordered estimator is being employed increasingly. For detailed
methods of ppswor, see the references under “Further reading" at the
end of the chapter and consult a sampling statistician.
The unordered estimator is more efficient than the ordered, and
both are more efficient than the unbiased pps “with replacement”
estimator.
4. Note that the selection of the sample units with probability proportional
to “size” is equivalent to the selection with probability proportional to the
ratios of the sizes to their (a) total or (b) average. For in the latter cases,
the selection probabilities are
Zt >' zt/Z zt
(a) 7T- = —- -- ----- == z = *‘ (b) z =-

Thus in pps sampling it is not necessary to know the “sizes” if the ratios
of these sizes to their total or average are known.
5. pps sampling can be made with a suitable function of the value of an­
cillary variable. For example, in surveys on fruit count, the selection of
branches with probability proportional to the fourth power of the firth
may be more efficient than ppg3, ppg2, or ppg (“g” indicating girth) or
srs (Murthy (1967), Section 6.6); in a stratified two-stage design, selection
with probability proportional to the square root of the number of ssu’s will
be reasonably close to the optimum and more efficient than probability
proportional to the number of ssu’s or srs if the costs vary substantially
with both the number of fsu’s and the number of ssu’s per fsu (Hansen et
al. (1953), vol. I, section 8.14, vol. II, section 8.3).

5.4 Procedures for the selection of sample units with pps

5.4.1 Selection from a list

For selection of sample units with pps (and replacement) from a list, two
methods are generally used.
(a) Cumulative method. This method entails cumulation of the sizes of
the units in the universe.
t N
zl', Z1 + z2\ zi + z2 + z3', zi', • ■ •i Zi = Z
Varying Probability Sampling 97

Random numbers are then drawn between 1 and Z. If the random

number is greater than z,-, but less than or equal to z,-, then
the ¿th unit is selected. The procedure is continued till the required
number n of sample units have been drawn.

(b) Selection of a pair of random numbers (Lahiri’s method). The other

method does not need cumulation of the sizes of the universe units.
A pair of random numbers is chosen, the first between 1 and N, and
the other between 1 and zmaa:, where zmax is the maximum value of
zi, obtained on inspection. If for any pair of random numbers chosen,
the first number is i and the second number is < z,, then the ¿th
unit is selected; otherwise it is rejected, i.e. no selection is made,
but a fresh pair of random numbers chosen. This is continued until
the required total number of sample units n have been drawn. To
minimize the number of rejections, a very large zmax may be split up
into more than one part, and the original unit selected whenever one
of the split units is drawn. Both these methods of procedure will be
illustrated with examples.

5.4.2 Selection from a map

A third procedure is available for selection of geographical area units from

a map with probability proportional to area (ppa). Figure 5.1 of the map
of 16 fields in a village gives an example. A pair of random numbers is
chosen, the first between 1 and the length of the village (in our example,
12, in a certain unit) and the second between 1 and the breadth of the
village (say 9). The selected pair of random numbers fixes a points on the
map, and the field on which it falls is selected; if the point falls outside the
village area, it is, of course, rejected. For example, let the pair of random
numbers be 06 and 86 (remainder after division of 86 by 9 is 5); this point
(6,5) is plotted on the map and is seen to fall in field number 6, which is
selected. The procedure ensures selection with probability proportional to
area, and does not require the values of the areas for selection, if a map is
available; for estimation of the universe values, however, the areas of the
selected fields and also the total area should be known.

5.4.3 pps systematic sampling

In this method of selection, the cumulative sizes z, are first obtained
= 1,2,... , N for the universe). If n is the sample size, the sampling
interval I is the integer nearest to Z/n. If r is the number chosen at
random from 1 to Z, the units corresponding to the numbers (r 4- JZ),
98 Chapter 5

Figure 5.1: Selection of a farm with probability proportional to area.

j = 0,1,2,..., (n — 1) are selected. The zth universe unit will be selected if

t —1 t
^2 zt < r+jt < 52 zi
for some value of j between 0 and (n — 1). If Z/n is not an integer, a
pps circular systematic sample can be obtained by selecting a random start
from 1 to Z and then proceeding cyclically with the integer nearest to Z/n
as the interval.
The estimator for the universe total Y has the same form as that for
ppswr sampling, and is unbiased, but as in simple systematic sampling
(Chapter 4), a single pps systematic sample cannot provide an unbiased
variance estimator. The variance can be estimated unbiasedly by selecting
two or more pps systematic sample, each with a separate random start.
This method will provide more efficient estimators than simple pps sampling
when the units are arranged in ascending or descending order of yi/zx\ in
practice, the y,- values will not be known and those for a previous period or
of a related variable will have to be used.

Example 5.1

From village number 8 in state I (Appendix IV), given the sizes of the 24 house­
holds in the village, select 5 households with probability proportional to size (and
Varying Probability Sampling 99

Table 5.2: Cumulative household sizes and selection of households with

probability proportional to size: village no. 8 in state I (Appendix IV)

Serial Size Cumulative Serial Size Cumulative

no. size no. size

1 5 5 13 6 63
2 3 8 14 4 67
3 3 11 15 5 72
4 7 18 16 6 78
5 4 22 17 3 81
6 4 26 18 5 86
7 6 32 19 1 87
8 6 38 20 3 99
9 4 42 21 5 95
10 5 47 22 6 101
11 3 50 23 4 105
12 7 57 24 4 109

with replacement) and from the data on total monthly income and food cost of
these 5 households, obtain for the whole village estimates of the total daily in­
come, the total daily food cost, and the proportion of income spent on food with
their standard errors.
In this example, we shall illustrate the selection of the pps sample by cumu­
lating the sizes. The cumulative sizes of the 24 households are shown in Table
5.2. As the total size of the 24 households is 109, we choose random numbers
between 1 and 981 (the highest three digit number which is a multiple of 109);
if the three-digit random number is greater than 109, it is divided by 109, and
the remainder taken. The first three-digit random number is 213, which leaves
a remainder of 104 when divided by 109; from Table 5.2, this random number is
seen to be greater than the cumulative size up to the 22nd household (101), but
less than the cumulative size up to the 23rd household (105): therefore the 23rd
household is selected.
The procedure of selection of five sample households with pps is shown in
Table 5.3.
The data on the selected five households and the required computations are
shown in Table 5.4.
Here N = 24; n = 5. The probability of selection of a household is
N
= y'/= S'«/109
100 Chapter 5

Table 5.3: pps sample of 5 households: data of Table 5.2

Random number

Three-digit Remainder after Serial number of

division by 109 selected household

213 104 23
290 72 15
953 81 17
908 36 8
464 28 7

where yt is the known size of the ith household. The corrected sums of squares
and products are:
*
SSx = 1092 x 2.451704
SSw
* = 1092 x 3.7
*
SPx'w = 1092 x 1.91822
An unbiased estimate of the total daily income in the 24 households is, from
estimating equation (5.3),

x0‘ = - 5^ x* = - x 109 x 55.5167

n 5
= 109 x 11.1033 = $1210.26
An unbiased estimate of the variance of Xq is, from equation (5.5),
s2. = SSx
*
/n(n - 1) = 1092 x 2.451704/20
= 1092 x 0.1225852
Therefore the estimated standard error of Xq is
sx* = 109 x 0.34012 = $38.16
and the estimated CV of x£ is 3.15 per cent.
Similarly, the estimated total daily food cost is
n

Wq = *
/n
w = 109 x 5.4 = $588.6

with estimated variance

s2w. = 1092 x 0.185
 Varying Probability Sampling
Table 5.4: Daily total income and food cost of 5 sample households selected with probability
proportional to size in village no. 8, state I (Appendix IV) and computation of estimates

House-
hold
House-
hold
Size Selection
probability
Total daily <=
Xi/lTi
* =
w
Wi/irt
* 2
w w
r*
Vi
sen id sample 7T, = Income Food
no. no. cost
i ii wt

109x 109X 1092 X 1092X 1092 X

7 1 6 6/109 $61 $27 10.1667 4.5 103.3611 20.25 37.7500
8 2 6 6/109 62 30 10.3333 5.0 106.7778 25.00 51.6667
15 3 5 5/109 58 25 11.6000 5.0 134.5600 25.00 58.0000
17 4 3 3/109 35 21 11.6667 7.0 136.1111 49.00 81.6667
23 5 4 4/109 47 22 11.7500 5.5 138.0625 30.25 64.6250

Total 109x 109X 1092 X 1092x 1092 X

55.5167 27.0 648.8725 149.50 301.7084

Mean 109x 109X

11.1033 5.4
(^o) (w0*)

o
102 Chapter 5

i.e. with estimated standard error

sw0* = 109 x 0.43012 = $46.88

and estimated CV of 7.96 per cent.

The estimated proportion of income spent on food is, from equation (5.9),

r = wo/io = $588.6/$1210.26
= 0.4863 or 48.63 per cent.
The estimated variance, s2, of r is, from equation (5.10),

1092(3.7 + 0.48632 x 2.451704 - 2 x 0.4863 x 1.91822)

1092 x 11.10332 x 20
= 0.120704/123.283271 = 0.0009791

so that the estimated standard error of r is sr = 0.03129 and the estimated CV

of r is 6.43 per cent.

Example 5.2

For the thirty villages listed in Appendix IV, the population data obtained from
a census conducted fives years previously are available and given in Table 5.5.
Select four samples villages with probability proportional to their previous census
population, and on the basis of the current population and number of households
in these four sample villages, obtain for the thirty villages estimates of the current
total population, number of households, and average household size, along with
their standard errors.
We shall follow the second procedure for selecting the pps sample which does
not require cumulation of the sizes. As there are 30 villages and the maximum
previous census population in any village is 122, we take five-digit random num­
bers, the first two digits referring to the village serial number, and the last three
digits to the village census population. The first five-digit number is 06 733; the
last three digits, divided by 122, leaves a remainder of 1, which is less than the
census population of village serial number 6, namely, 65, so this village is selected.
The second five-digit random number is 65 511; the first two-digits, on division
by 30, leaves a remainder of 5, and the last three digits on division by 122, leaves
a remainder of 23; which is less than the census population of the village serial
number 5, namely 92, so this village too is selected. The third five-digit random
number of 01 932, the last three digits, on division by 122, leaves a remainder
of 78, which is greater than the census population of village serial number 1,
namely, 69, so this random number is rejected. We continue in this manner until
four villages have been selected, as shown in Table 5.6.
Note: We shall illustrate with this example the procedure of selection of a pps
systematic sample. As the interval I = Zjn = 2815/4 = 703.75 is not an integer,
we first select a random start between 1 and Z (i.e. 2815). Let this be 1938;
Varying Probability Sampling 103

Table 5.5: Previous census population of the 30 villages: data of Appendix

IV

State Village Continu­ Previous State Village Continu- Previous

no. serial ous serial census no. serial ous serial census
no. no. population no. no. population

1 1 69 II 6 16 84
2 2 81 7 17 85
3 3 110 8 18 102
4 4 80 9 19 122
5 5 92 10 20 102
6 6 65 11 21 86
7 7 72 III 1 22 78
8 8 108 2 23 112
9 9 106 3 24 97
10 10 80 4 25 117
1 11 72 5 26 106
2 12 102 6 27 115
3 13 73 7 28 110
4 14 84 8 29 104
5 15 98 9 30 103

Total 2815

Table 5.6: pps sample of 4 villages: data of Table 5.5

Random number for

* Actual Accept/
Census census reject
Village population population

06 733 (R 1) 65 Accept
65 (R 5) 511 (R 23) 92 Accept
01 932 (R 78) 69 Reject
71 (R 11) 508 (R 20) 80 Accept
48 (R 18) 222 (R 100) 102 Accept

R indicates remainder after division by 30 and 12 respectively.

104 Chapter 5

then our random numbers are 1938; 1938 + 704 = 2642; (1938 4- 2 x 704 =)
3346 — 2815 = 531; and 531 + 704 = 1235. From Table 5.5 the reader may
verify that the cumulative previous census population is 1873 up to village no.
11 in state II and 1951 up to village no. 1 in state III; the random number 1938
therefore corresponds to the latter village, which is selected. Similarly the other
three sample villages would be village no. 8 in state III, village no. 7 in state I,
and village no. 5 in state II.
The data on the four sample villages and the required computations are shown
in Table 5.7: the computational procedures are somewhat different from those in
Example 5.1, and are generally to be preferred.
Here N = 30, n = 4, Z = t z, = 2815. The corrected sums of squares and
products are SSy
* = 88945.57; SSh
* h
*
= 16714.07; and SPy = 37524.44.
An unbiased estimate of the present total population in the thirty villages is,
from equation (5.3),
yo- = - F y* = 3239.33 or 3239
n
an unbiased estimate of variance of which is, from equation (5.5),
s2. = SSy
*
/n(n - 1) = 7412.1308
so that the estimated standard error of j/0 is
sv. = 86.09
and the estimated CV is 2.66 per cent.
Similarly, an unbiased estimate of the total number of households in the thirty
villages is
h* 0 = - V5 h* = 672.95 or 673
n
an unbiased estimate of the variance of which is si. = 1392.8392, so that the
0
estimated standard error of is = 37.32 and the estimated CV is 5.55 per
cent.
The estimated average household size is, from equation (5.9),
r = yo/hÔ = 3239.33/672.95
= 4.8136 or 4.81
As an unbiased estimated of the covariance of j/0 and is
5y.h. = SPy
h
*
/n(n - 1) = 3127.0367,
the estimated variance of r is, from equation (5.10),
s2T = (sy. + r2 s^. — 2rSy»h«)//iÔ2 = 0.0211556
so that the estimates standard error of r is sr = 0.1454 and the estimated CV
3.02 per cent.
Note that although this particular sample has not provided units with rel­
atively large sizes, the CV’s are much smaller than those for a simple random
sample (Example 2.3).
Table 5.7: Present population and number of households of 4 sample villages selected with probability proportional to previous
census population and computation of estimates for 30 villages

Village Sample Size Reciprocal Present Present y* = yi/i^i h* = hij^i * 2

V hf
serial village (previous of proba­ popula­ number
no. no. census bility tion of
i population) l/TTj = households
Zi Z/zi Vi hi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (io) (11)

5 1 92 30.5978 112 24 3426.95 734.35 11743986.30 539269.92 2 516580.73

6 2 65 43.3077 77 17 3334.69 736.23 11120157.40 542 034.61 2 455 098.82
11 3 72 39.0972 78 15 3049.58 586.46 9 299938.18 343935.33 1788 456.69
18 4 102 27.5980 114 23 3146.17 634.75 9 898 385.67 402 907.56 1997031.41

Total 12 957.39 2691.79 42 062 467.55 1828147.42 8757167.65

Mean 3239.33 672.95

(v0‘) (*
5)
106 Chapter 5

5.5 Special cases of crop surveys

5.5.1 Introduction
In a survey designed to estimate the total area under any particular crop
and its total yield, sampling of fields (or farms or plots) with probability
proportional to total (geographical) area (ppa) introduces simplifications
in the estimating procedures in addition to possible improvements in the
efficiency of the estimators. If a map of fields (or farms or plots) is available,
selection with ppa may be made by the procedure described in section 5.4.2.

5.5.2 Area surveys of crops

Suppose n fields are selected with ppa

7Tj = ai/A

where
N

and where a, is the area of the zth field (z = 1,2,..., N for the universe, and
i — 1,2,... ,n for the sample). Let z/t denote the area under a particular
crop for the zth sample field, then an unbiased estimator of the total area
under the crop in the universe is, from estimating equation (5.3),
n n
i/o = 52 = 52^ !niTi
n n
- A^aiPi/nai = A^Tpi/n = Ap (5.11)

where p, = Pi/di is the proportion of the area of the zth field under the
particular crop, which varies from 0 to 1.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of z/g is, from equation (5.5),
s2. = A2Sj- = A2SSpi/n(n — 1) (512)

where SSpi is the corrected sum of squares of p,.

An unbiased estimator of the overall proportion under the crop is given
by the estimated total area under the crop divided by the total geographical
area, i.e.
n
Ap/A = p = y^Pi/n (5.13)

Thus a simple (unweighted) average of the sample proportions under the

crop gives an unbiased estimator of the universe proportion.
Varying Probability Sampling 107

An unbiased estimator of the variance of p is, from equation (5.12),

= SSpi/n(n — 1) (5.14)

Note: If the crop is such that it either occupies the whole of a field or no part of
it, or if the fields are small enough for the this assumption to hold, such that the
proportion of the total area under the crop (p^) is either 1 (whole) or 0 (none),
the estimator for the variance of the total area under the crop in equation (5.12)
reduces to

= A2p(l — p)/(n — 1) (5.15)

For let r of the n sample units have p, = 1, and the rest (n — r) have p, = 0.
Then ^2” pi = £7 1 = r, also 2"?? = £7 1 ~ r> so t,hat P = P'/n = r/n>
and SSpt = 22” Pi — np2 = r — np2 = rip — np(l — p). Substituting this value of
SSpi in equation (5.12), we obtain equation (5.15).

Example 5.3

Ten farms selected with probability proportional to total area from the universe
of 100 farms gave the following proportion of area under a crop:
(p,): 0.20; 0.25; 0.10; 0.30; 0.15; 0.25; 0.20; 0.25; 0.10; 0.20
Estimate the total area under the crop for the 100 farms and its CV\ the total
geographical area is 16 124 acres.
Here N = 100; n = 10; A = 16 124; p, = 2.00; £np2 = 0.4175; and
SSp, = 0.0175.
The estimated proportion of area under the crop is, from equation (5.13),

p=- Vp,; = 2.00/10 = 0.20

n '
with estimated variance (from equation (5.14))

s^ = 0.0174/90 = 0.00019444

so that s-p = 0.01394.

An unbiased estimate of the total area under the crop is (equation (5.11))
Po — A ■ p = 16 124 x 0.20 = 3224.8 or 3225, with an estimated standard error of
Po (equation (5.12)) of

sy* = Asp = 16 124 x 0.01394 = 224.77

and the estimated CV is 6.97 per cent.

As the t-value corresponding to probability 0.05 and degrees of freedom (n —
1 =) 9 is 2.262, the 95 per cent probability limits to the total area under the crop
are po ± 2.262 x sy* or 3225 ± 508 or 2717 and 3733 acres.
108 Chapter 5

5.5.3 Yield surveys of crops

Similar considerations apply for estimating the average yield of a crop per
unit of area. If rt — Xi/a.i is the yell per unit are in the zth sample field
(obtained on harvesting the crop and measuring the yield xt), then an
unbiased estimator of the average yield per unit area is (from an equation
of the type (5.13))

<516)

i.
e. the simple (unweighted) average of the yields per unit area in the
different fields. Also,
Sy — SSri/n(n - 1) (517)
An unbiased estimator of the total yield X is (from an equation of the
type 5.11)
Sq = Ar (5.18)
and
= A2^ (5.19)
A generally biased but consistent estimator of the average yield per unit
of crop area is
r' = Xq/pq = r/p (5.20)
an estimator of the variance of which is
sr' = ~ 2r>Sy^-)/yo2 (5.21)
where sy^x* is an unbiased estimator of the covariance of and Xq, given
by
Sy’r« = A2SPpiri/n(n - 1) (5.22)
Note: In the far less common situation when the areas under a particular crop
are known for all the fields in the universe, sample fields can be selected with
probability proportional to crop area, and an unbiased estimator of the average
yield per unit of corp area is given by an equation of the type (5.16), namely
r =£r,/n (5.23)

and an unbiased estimator of the total yield of the crop by Yf , where r, = it/y,.
Variance estimators of these two estimators are given by estimating equations of
the types (5.17) and (5.19), respectively.
 Varying Probability Sampling 109

5.6 Ratio method of estimation

As with simple random sampling, so also with pps sampling, the ratio
method of estimation may be used to improve the efficiency of estimators.
The principle is the sample and will be illustrated with examples.
Note, first, however, that if sampling is with pps, and the ratio method
is used with the help of the sizes themselves, the ratio estimator of the
universe total becomes the same as the unbiased estimator from the pps
sampling. For if y is the study variable and z the size variable, then with
the usual notations,

(5.3)

(5.24)

The ratio estimator of the total Y, using the size variable z, is therefore,
from an estimating equation of the type (3.6),

Vr = Zy’Jzl = Zy’JZ = y’o

i.e. the unbiased estimator from the pps sample.

A corollary of the above is that the simple (i.e. unweighted) mean of
the ratios yi/z, becomes the unbiased estimator of the universe ratio Y/Z,
for the estimator of YjZ is

(5.25)

where rt- = yijzi- This result has special application in agricultural crop
surveys (see section 5.5).
Although it is known that for sampling with pps to be more efficient
than simple random sampling, the size variable should have a high, positive
correlation with the study variable, and the linear regression line of the
study variable on the size should pass through the origin, in a multi-subject
inquiry the size variable chosen (as a necessary compromise owing to the
conflicting desiderata of a number of variables) may be such that the above
conditions are not fulfilled in respect of a particular study variable; in
other situations, the required information on the desired size may not be
available at the time of the sample selection (see exercise 3 at the end of
this chapter). In these cases, the ratio method of estimation may be used
in order to improve the efficiency of the estimators obtained from the pps
sampling.
по Chapter 5

Thus, if w is the ancillary variable used for the ratio estimation and z
is the size variable used for pps sampling, then with the usual notations

The ratio estimator of the universe total Y is then, using an estimating

equation of the type (3.6),

vh = = ivr (5.27)

where

IV = £2 wt- ; r _ yo/w
* o (5.28)

The variance estimator of y* R is, from equation (3.10),

sh = w2gr = +7,2sl; ~ 2rs№;) (5-29)

Note: For the ratio method of estimation to be efficient, the selection probability
should be appropriate for both у and w.

Example 5.4

A sample of 4 villages, drawn with probability proportional to area from the list
of 30 villages given in Appendix IV, gave the data on the present population
(Table 5.8). Obtain an unbiased estimate of the present total population in the
30 villages. Given the previous census population of the 30 villages in Table 5.6,
obtain the ratio estimate of the present total population and compare the two
estimates. The total area of the 30 villages is 270.0 km2 and the total previous
census population, 2815.
Here N = 30; n = 4; Z = z, = 270.0 km2; W = w, = 2815.
An unbiased estimate of the present total population of the 30 villages is

yÔ = - V V* = 3506.14 or 3506
n '
An unbiased estimate of the variance of yÔ is

*
sj. = SSy
/n(n - 1) = 443 565.2459

so that the estimated standard error of y£ is sÿ* = 666.01 and the estimated CV
is 19.00 per cent.
These are the estimates we would obtain if no other information were avail­
able. If, however, the data on the previous census were available, we could use
Table 5.8: Present and previous census population of 4 villages selected with probability proportional to area and computation
of estimates for 30 villages

Village Sample Area Reciprocal Present y* = y* 2 Previous *

W = W{/7T, * 2
w
serial village (km2) of proba- popula- census
no. no. bility tion population
i z, l/ir¿ = Z/zí Vi w,

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

7 1 4.5 60,0000 88 5 280.00 27878 400.00 72 4320.00 18 662 400.00 22 809 600.00
13 2 5.8 46.5517 80 3 724.14 13869 218.74 73 3398.27 11 548 238.99 12 655 633.24
22 3 10.0 27.0000 83 2 241.00 5 022 081.00 78 2106.00 4 435 236.00 4 719 546.00
30 4 10.2 26.4706 105 2 779.41 7 725 119.95 103 2726.47 7 433 638.66 7 577 977.98

Total 14 024.55 54 494 818.69 12 550.74 42 079 513.65 47 762 757.22

Mean 3 506.14 3137.68

(y0*) (wo)
112 Chapter 5

these to improve our estimates. We first obtain the unbiased estimate of the total
previous census population, from equation (5.26),

Wo = - * = 3137.68 or 3138
w
n
An unbiased estimate of the variances of Wq is

st
* = SSw
*
/n(n - 1) = 224,942.3142

Also,
w
sy*w* = SPy
*
/n(n - 1) = 313, 175.4731
As the ratio of the two unbiased estimates j/^ and Wq is

r = yo/wo = 3506.14/3137.68 = 1.11743

the ratio estimate of the present total population, using the previous census pop­
ulation is, from equation (5.27),

y*R = WVo/u;o = Wr
= 2825 x 1.11743 = 3145.57 or 3146

From equation (5.29), the estimated variance of y* R is 24,514.8162, so that the

estimated standard error is 156.57 and the estimated CV is 4.98 per cent.
Note the tremendous improvement in the estimates by the ratio method of
estimation as compared to the unbiased estimate.

Further reading
Brewer and Hanif; Chaudhury and Stenger, chapter 2; Godambe and Thompson;
Hedayat and Sinha, chapters 1-3 and 5; Kish (1965), chapter 7; Murthy (1967),
chapter 6 and section 15.5c; Singh and Chaudhary, chapter 5; Sukhatme et al.
(1984), chapter 3; Yates, sections 3.9, 6.16, 7.15, 8.9 and 8.20.

Exercises

1. A sample of 10 villages was drawn with probability proportional to the 1951

Census population in a tehsil (a tehsil is an administrative sub-division) in
India. The data on the 1951 Census population, and the sample data on
cultivated area, are given in Table 5.9. Estimate the total cultivated area
in the tehsil and its CV, given the total population in the tehsil in 1951 as
415,149 (Murthy, Problem 6.2).
2. From 35 farms with a total geographical area of 5759, a sample of 5 farms
drawn with probability proportional to the total area of the farms gave the
data shown in Table 5.10. Estimate the average and the total area under
the crop with respective standard errors (Sampford, pp. 124-125).
Varying Probability Sampling 113

Table 5.9: Cultivated area of 10 sample villages, selected with probability

proportional to 1951 Census population in a tehsil in India
Village
serial no. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1951 census
population 551 865 2535 3523 8368 7357 5131 4654 1146 1165
Cultivated
area (acres) 4824 924 1948 3013 7678 5506 4051 4060 809 1013

Source: Murthy, Problem 6.2.

Table 5.10: Area under a crop and the proportion to total area of 5 sample
farms, selected with probability proportional to the total area

Farm No. 3 18 28 34 35
Total area 52 110 300 410 430
Area under a crop 10 24 59 72 103
Proportion of area under the crop 0.1923 0.2182 0.1967 0.1756 0.2385

Source: Sampford, pp. 124-125.

3. Table 5.11 shows for 1937 the area under wheat in 34 villages in Lucknow
sub-division (India) selected out of 170 villages with probability propor­
tional to the cultivated area as recorded in 1931.
(a) Given that the total cultivated area in 1931 in the 170 villages was
78,019 acres, obtain an unbiased estimate of the total area under
wheat and its standard error.
(b) After the sample selection and enumeration, data on the area under
wheat in 1936 became available. Using this information, and given
that the total area under wheat in 1936 was 21,288 acres, obtain the
ratio estimate of the area under wheat in 1937 and its standard error
(Sukhatme and Sukhatme, 1970b, Example 4.4).
114 Chapter 5

Table 5.11: Total cultivated area in 1931 and area under wheat in 1936
and 1937 for a sample 34 villages selected with probability proportional to
cultivated area in Lucknow sub-division, India

Village Total Area under wheat Village Total Area under wheat
serial cultivated in in serial cultivated in in
no. area, 1931 1936 1937 no. area, 1931 1936 1937
(acres) (acres) (acres) (acres) (acres) (acres)

1 401 75 52 18 186 45 27
2 634 163 149 19 1767 564 515
3 1194 326 289 20 604 238 249
4 1770 442 381 21 701 92 85
5 1060 254 278 22 524 247 221
6 827 125 111 23 571 134 133
7 1737 559 634 24 962 131 144
8 1060 254 278 25 407 129 103
9 360 101 112 26 715 192 179
10 946 359 355 27 845 663 330
11 470 109 99 28 1016 236 219
12 1625 481 498 29 184 73 62
13 827 125 111 30 282 62 79
14 96 5 6 31 194 71 69
15 1304 427 399 32 439 137 100
16 377 78 7 33 854 196 141
17 259 78 105 34 824 255 265

Source: Sukhatme and Sukhatme (1970b), Example 4.4.

CHAPTER 6

Choice of Sampling Units:

Cluster Sampling

6.1 Introduction

In the cases of single-stage sampling so far considered, we have illustrated

sampling procedures such as simple random sampling, systematic sampling,
and varying probability sampling, with different sampling units such as
villages, farms, households, and persons. When the recording units occur
in clusters or groups, there may be some advantage in selecting a sample of
clusters and completely surveying all the recording units within the selected
clusters. This is known as cluster sampling. Thus, in a household inquiry, a
sample of villages may be selected from the total list of villages and all the
households in these sample villages surveyed; or in a demographic inquiry,
where the elementary, recording unit is the individual for sex, age etc., all
the members of the households may be surveyed in a sample of households;
and so on. There may thus be a hierarchy of recording (and sampling)
units.
The cluster may refer to naturally occurring groups such as individuals
in a household, or households or farms in a village, or all the sheep in a
flock; clusters may also be formed artificially by grouping together units
that are neighboring or can be surveyed together conveniently. When the
total geographical area of the universe is subdivided into smellier areas and
a sample of areas is taken, the sampling plan is known as area sampling.
No new principles are involved in cluster sampling for the estimation of
universe totals, averages, ratios etc., or for their variance estimators: the
estimation procedure will of course depend on whether the sample of clus­
ters is selected with equal or varying probabilities. However, the expression
for the universe variances of the estimators and the sample estimators of
variances may be formulated differently in order to facilitate the choice of

115
116 Chapter 6

the sampling unit - the cluster or its elements - and its size.
In this chapter, we shall consider the criteria for the choice of the sam­
pling units, and for simplicity, only clusters of equal size (i.e. each with an
equal number of elementary units) selected by simple random sampling.
We shall see that when, as it generally happens, the elementary units
within a cluster tend to be similar in respect of the study variable, then
cluster sampling will be less efficient than a direct (unrestricted) simple
random sample of the elementary units, given the same total number of the
units in the sample. However, cluster sampling reduces the costs and labor
of travel, identification, contact, data collection etc., and may sometimes
also reduce non-sampling errors and biases in data (section 25.7). Apart
from the latter consideration, the question therefore arises of balancing the
general increase in sampling error against the decrease in costs. This leads
to the problem of determining the optimal size of cluster, i.e. the number
of elementary units it should contain. This problem is considered in the
next chapter.

Notes
1. Cluster sampling, as defined, may be used with single- as well as multi-stage
designs, and unstratified as well as stratified designs. A single-stage cluster
sampling may be considered as the case where all the second-stage units
(i.e. the elementary units) in the selected first-stage units (i.e. clusters)
are surveyed. Cluster sampling and two-stage sampling, to be considered
in Part III, have many common considerations. The term “cluster sam­
pling” is sometimes used to denote any multi-stage design; the difference
in definitions is therefore well worth bearing in mind. The similarity in
formulation of the theory in section 6.2 with that of systematic sampling
in section 4.3 may also be noted.
2. Cluster sampling in general refers to geographical units; and a sample of
households is not generally described as a cluster sample of household mem­
bers.

6.2 Simple random sampling

6.2.1 Universe parameters

Let the universe consist of N mutually exclusive and exhaustive clusters,
and in each cluster let there be the same number of Mq elementary units,
so that the total number of units in the universe is NMq (note that until
now we had denoted the total number of universe units by N).
Let Yij denote the value of the study variable for the jth unit (j =
1,2,..., Mo) in the ¿th cluster (i = The total value of the
Choice of Sampling Units: Cluster Sampling 117

study variable in the ith cluster is

Mo
Y = '£Yij (6.1)
j=l

and the cluster mean

Yi = Yi/Mv (6.2)
The universe total of the study variable is
N N Mo
yY
i= 1
y‘ = iY Yy’>
- 1 j=1
(6.3)

and the overall universe mean per unit

N
Y = Y/NMo=^Y/N (6.4)
is also the mean of the cluster means.
The universe variance
\-^M0 (y.. _ v\2
_2 _ ¿^1=1 1 >____ 2 I _2
-Vw+^b (6.5)
a NM------------
q

where

"I NM0
(6.6)

is the within-cluster variance, and

, XLfYi-Y?
- -------------------- (6.7)
N
is the between-cluster variance.
The between-cluster variance can also be expressed in terms of the in­
traclass correlation coefficient pc between pairs of units within the clusters
(or “intra-cluster” correlation coefficient), which is defined by
„ = s:, E^,№-W-Y)
Pc NM0(M0 - 1)<Z2 1 ■ '

and it can be shown that

= <72[1 + (Mo - l)pc]/Mo (6.9)
Proofs are given in Appendix II, section A2.3.8.
118 Chapter 6

6.2.2 Sample estimators

If n clusters are selected by srs with replacement and all the elementary
units in the sample clusters surveyed, the total number of units in the
sample is nMo- If denotes the value of the study variable for the jth
unit (j = 1,2,... ,M0) in the ¿th sample cluster (i = 1,2,... ,n), the total
value of the study variable in the ¿th sample cluster is
Mo
yi = Y,Y‘> <6'10)
j=l

and the mean of the ¿th cluster is

yi = yi/M0 = Yi (6.11)

The overall mean per unit in the sample is also the mean of the sample
cluster means
\-^M0 v —
_ 2_>: = 1 2_^7 = 1 , yt
v‘ = —---------------------------- (6-12)
n

and it is an unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y.

The sampling variance of yc is
4 = (6.13)

An unbiased estimator of <r% is the sample estimator

sb = ¿(!/i - Vc)2/(n - 1)
(6-14)
i=i

An unbiased estimator of cr£ is therefore

4c = sl/n (6.15)

From equation (6.9), the sampling variance of the sample estimator yc

in terms of the intraclass correlation coefficient pc is

cr2[l + - l)pc]/nM0 (6.16)

4 J1 + W) - IM (6.17)

where

rri
= a2'/nMo (6.18)
Choice of Sampling Units: Cluster Sampling 119

is the sampling variance of the mean of nMo units selected directly by srs
(with replacement). Equation (6.17) is the fundamental formula in cluster
sampling.
An unbiased estimator of the within-cluster variance c? is the sample
estimator
n Mo
4 = 52(619)
i= 1 j =1

From equations (6.5) and (6.9),

Pc = 1 - М0^/(М0 - 1)<t2 (6.20)

A sample estimator of pc is

Pc = 1 - M0s2/(M0 - l)(s? + s’) (6.21)

6.2.3 Design effect

From equation (6.17), the ratio of the sampling variance of the overall mean
per unit in a cluster sample to that in an srswr (of the same total number
of units nMo) is
4c/4,r. =1 + (M° -

This ratio is termed “design effect” or “deff” for short (Kish, 1965).

6.3 Discussion of the results

The following points emerge from the preceding formulae:

1. As <r2 > cr2 (from equation (6.5)), from equation (6.20) one sees that
pc lies between — 1/(Mq — 1) (when a2 = 0) and 1 (with cr2 = 0).

2. From equation (6.17), it can be seen that

(i) If Mo — 1, i.e. if each cluster consists of one elementary unit,

then there is no clustering, and the variance formula for cluster
sampling becomes the same as that for srs.
(ii) If pc = 0 (i.e. when the characteristic is distributed randomly on
the ground, and there is no intra-cluster correlation), then the
variance formula for cluster sampling becomes the same as that
for srs; a sample of one cluster of size Mo will then provide as
much information on the study variable as an srs of Mo selected
directly.
120 Chapter 6

(iii) If po = 1 (the maximum value), i.e. if all the units in the cluster
have the same value for the study variable such that the greatest
degree of homogeneity obtains in a cluster, then cr2 = Mold ;
e. the variance for a cluster sampling will be Mo times that for
i.
an srs. Cluster sampling will then be extremely inefficient.
(iv) The factor (Mq — l)pc of the “design effect”, gives a measure
of the relative change in the sampling variance due to sampling
clusters instead of sampling the elementary units directly; for
example, if clusters (Mo =) 100 persons each are formed and
pc = 0.01, then the design effect is 1.99 or 2 approximately, so
that the variance of cluster sampling will bet twice that of an srs
of individuals. Thus, a relatively small value of the intracluster
correlation coefficient, multiplied by the size of the cluster, could
lead to a substantial increase in variance.
(v) pc will be negative for the sex and age composition of members
of a household (see Note 4, and exercises 3 and 4 at the end of
this chapter); cluster sampling of households will then be more
efficient than an srs of persons, and the cost-efficiency of cluster
sampling greater still.
(vi) In general, however, pc is positive, and decreases with the cluster
size Mo, but the factor (Mq — l)pc increases with increasing
cluster size, so that cluster sampling becomes less efficient than
srs, and increasingly inefficient as the cluster size increases.

3. The comparison of the efficiencies of estimators from a direct (unre­

stricted) srs of the elementary units and an srs cluster sample of the
units will be misleading for two reasons. First, unrestricted simple
random samples are not generally realized in practice; and second,
even when a cluster sample is taken (either single- or multi-stage),
special procedures of sampling (such as stratification, pps selection of
clusters) and of estimation (such as the ratio method of estimation)
are often used to increase the efficiency of the estimators.

6.4 Notes

1. Similar considerations apply to unequal size clusters, selected with

equal or varying probabilities, with M, the average size of a cluster,
replacing Mq in equation (6.17) and others.
2. The above formulation also holds for the estimation of proportion of
the units in the universe possessing a certain attribute. Defining, as in
section 2.13, our study variable so that it takes the value 1, if the unit
Choice of Sampling Units: Cluster Sampling 121

has the attribute, the value zero otherwise, and if in the ¿th sample
cluster, M- units possess the attribute, then the cluster proportion of
units possessing the attribute is M[/Mo = Pi = pc Pi and pi denote
respectively the universe proportion and the sample estimator in the
¿th sample cluster,
An unbiased estimator of the universe proportion P is
n
Pc=^Pi/n (6.22)

the mean of the sample cluster proportions. The unbiased estimator

of the variance of pc is
n
= sb/n = U(pi ~P^2/n(n ~ (623)

3. For proportions, P(1 — P)/n would be the sampling variance if the

units were selected directly from an srs. But design-based estimates of
variance should be computed in every case. If, for example, an srs of
clusters is taken and the ratio method of estimation used for the birth
rate, the three variance estimators, namely from srs of clusters with
and without ratio method of estimation, and the binomial variance,
could be compared, which would show the loss of efficiency due to
clustering on the one hand, and the gain due to using the ratio method
of estimation.
4. When the study variable is a zero-one or yes-no characteristic, and a
design-based estimate of its variance has been obtained, the value of
pc can be computed from equation (6.17). Thus, in Example 2.5, we
have seen that the design-based estimate of the variance proportion
of males is s2 = 0.0005391082, whereas the estimated variance of
the proportion had the sample persons been selected directly is s2 =
0.00206545. From equation (6.17) and using the sample estimate of
variances, we have

1 + (Mo -l)pc = s2/s2

p = 0.5391
taking Mq, the average number of persons per household from the
sample, namely, 5.1, we have

pc = (0.5391 - 1)/4.1 = -0.11

In this case, the efficiency of sampling households to that of sampling
persons directly is s2/s2 — 2.61 or 261 per cent (c/. exercise 3a at the
end of this chapter).
122 Chapter 6

As another example, suppose that a simple random sample (with re­

placement) of 50 areal units (clusters) each of 300 persons estimated
the birth rate at 0.045 per person with variance 0.00000395081, com­
puted by the method of section 2.9.1. Had the 50 x 300 — 15,000
sample persons been selected directly from the universe of persons,
then under some simplifying assumptions, from equation (2.74), the
same birth rate would have an estimated variance 0.00000283689.
Using equation (6.17), the intraclass correlation coefficient is then
estimated at 0.00013.
5. In the different geographical strata with clusters of about 300 persons
in Cameroon (1960-5), the value of the intraclass correlation coeffi­
cient for the birth rate ranged from —0.0013 to 0.0054, with a central
value of 0.0013, and for the death rate from —0.0005 to 0.0101, with a
central value of 0.0025 (Scott, 1967 and 1968). For the proportion of
adult males employed, the coefficient was 0.1 for census enumeration
areas (with an average of 1000 persons each) in the Ghana Census
of 1960 (Scott, 1967): this indicates that in this case, cluster sam­
pling of enumeration areas would be very inefficient and a sub-sample
of households in selected enumeration areas should be taken. If for
practical reasons (see section 26.13), a multi-subject survey covering
both a demographic and a labor force inquiry is conducted, a possible
solution would be to enumerate completely the selected geographical
areas for population, births, and deaths, and to select a sub-sample of
households for an “in-depth” inquiry into the size and characteristics
of the labor force.
6. Variance function. The intra-cluster correlation coefficient, and there­
fore the variance of the cluster means, are not explicit functions of
the size of the cluster; that is to say, the functions cannot be de­
rived mathematically but depend on how the characteristic is in fact
distributed on the ground. This makes it difficult to estimate the
sampling variance for a sample of clusters of any one size, given the
variance of an equivalent sample of cluster of any one size, given the
variance of an equivalent sample of cluster of any other particular
size. However, in area sampling for crops in India, the U.K., and the
U.S.A., the within-cluster variance has been seen generally to follow
the form clMq where a and g are constants to be evaluated from the
data (and g is a positive number less than unity). From this and
using the sample estimator of the total variance, an expression for
the between-cluster variance can be obtained in terms of Mq, if there
are at least two values of the within-cluster variance for estimating a
and g. Regarding, however, the total universe as a single cluster of
Choice of Sampling Units: Cluster Sampling 123

N Mo units, the total variance becomes the same as the within-cluster

variance in the finite universe and is equal to a(NMo)9, i.e. a and
g can be estimated from a survey in which only one value of Mo is
used: this formulation may not hold for clusters with large Mos.

Further reading
Cochran, chapter 9; Deming (1950), chapter 3C; Hansen et al. (1953), vol. I,
chapter 6A-D, vol. II, chapter 6; Hedayat and Sinha, chapter 7; Kish (1965),
sections 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 6.1 and 6.2; Murthy (1967), chapter 8; Sukhatme et al.
(1984), chapter 7; Yates, section 2.9.

Exercises

1. From the data and results of exercise 7, Chapter 2, estimate the value of
intra-class correlation coefficient for the proportion of persons absent.
2. A bed of white pine seedlings contained six rows, each 434 ft long. Data
for four types of sampling units into which the bed could be divided are
shown in Table 6.1 along with estimates of cost (in terms of length of a row
that could be covered in 15 minutes). Obtain the optimum sampling units
after comparing the relative cost-efficiencies of the different sampling units
(Cochran, pp. 235-236).
(Hint: First compute the relative cost of measuring one unit, in this ex­
ample, in terms of time required to count one unit: Cu = relative size of
unit/length of a row (ft) that can be covered in 15 minutes; then compute
the relative net precision of each unit which is defined as being inversely
proportional to the variance obtained for fixed cost, namely (CUS^) is
the universe variance per unit. For details, see Cochran).

Table 6.1: Data for four types of sampling unit

Type of Relative size Total number Universe Length of a row

unit of unit of units variance (ft) that can be
u Mu Au per unit covered in
si 15 minutes

1-ft row 1 2604 2.537 44

2-ft row 2 1302 6.746 62
1-ft bed 6 434 23.094 78
2-ft bed 12 217 68.558 108

Source: Cochran, pp. 235-236.

124 Chapter 6

3. (a) Consider households all of size 4, consisting of a couple and two chil­
dren, and assume that the sex of a child is binomially distributed with
the proportion of male children being one-half. Show by computing the
between- and within-cluster variances or otherwise that the intraclass cor­
relation coefficient between sexes of different members of the household is
— and that the efficiency of sampling households (clusters of persons)
to that of sampling persons directly for estimating the sex ratio is 200%
(Sukhatme and Sukhatme (1970b), section 6.3).
(b) Compute separately the values of the intraclass correlation coefficient
between sexes of different members of households with 1 child, 3 children,
and 4 children respectively in addition to a couple. Generalize the results
for a household with Mo members (a couple and the rest of their children) to
show that the intraclass correlation coefficient between the sexes of different
members of the households is — 1/M°C2.

(Hint: Generalize the following statement for a household of size 4; ‘The

correlation between the sexes of husband and wife is —1, but for every
other of the remaining five pairs is zero, since the sex of the husband or
wife will not determine the sex of their children, nor will the sex of one child
determine the sex of another. The average value of the correlation between
sexes of different members in a household of 4 consisting of a husband, a wife
and two children is therefore — Sukhatme and Sukhatme (1970b), section
7, also Deming (1950), pp. 209-11. (Note: As sampling of individuals is
rarely done in the field for demographic inquiries, this and the following
exercise have relevance mainly to sampling after the survey.)
4. Consider households all of size 5, consisting of a couple and three children
(none adult). Show that the intraclass correlation between the age compo­
sitions of household members (taking only two broad age groups of adults
and children) is — so that the efficiency of sampling households to that of
sampling persons directly to obtain the age composition of the population
is 500%. Generalize this result to households with Mo members (a couple
and the rest children, none of whom are adult) to show that the intraclass
correlation coefficient is

[1 C2 - 2(M0 - 2)]/m°C2.
CHAPTER 7

Size of Sample: Cost and Error

7.1 Introduction

Two important questions on the designing of any sample inquiry are the
total cost of the survey and the precision of the main estimates. Both these
are related to the size of the sample, given the variability of the data, the
type of sampling and the method of estimation. Obviously, the larger the
sample, the smaller will be the sampling error, i.e. the greater the precision
of the estimates, but the higher will also be the cost. The survey should
be so designed as to provide estimates with minimum sampling errors (i.e.
with maximum precision) when the total cost is fixed, and to result in
the minimum total cost when the precision is preassigned: a sample size
fulfilling these conditions is called the optimal sample size. We shall see
later in Chapter 25 that other considerations such as the existence of non­
sampling errors and biases in data have also to be taken into account: these
generally increase with sample size beyond a certain point.
The size of a sample will be determined by the objective of the inquiry,
and the permissible margin of error in the estimates. For example, during
the depression of the Thirties in the U.S.A., when it was not known whether
the unemployed numbered five million or fifteen million, the first sample
did not necessarily have to be large to be useful; at present, however, larger
samples with more sensitive measures are required to estimate if the unem­
ployment rate (the number unemployed as a percentage of the total number
in labor force) increases from say 3 to 3 | per cent (Kish, 1971).
For simplicity, we shall in this chapter consider simple random sampling.
In general, under conditions in which pps sampling and the ratio method
of estimation are applied, these require smaller samples than an srs with
the same efficiency.

125
126 Chapter 7

7.2 Simple random sampling

7.2.1 Sampling for proportions

We have seen in section 2.13 that the sampling variance of a sample pro­
portion p in an srs of n units is

= P(1 - P)/n (7.1)

which depends only on the universe proportion P and the sample size n.
The coefficient of variation of p is

(7-2)

from which
P(l-P) (1-P)
(7.3)
<Tp Pe2

This determines the sample size n required for any given coefficient of
variation e.
As the CV per unit is

the required sample size n can also be expressed as

CV of one unit in universe

desired CV of sample estimator
CV per unit' 2
(7.5)
e

The sample size can also be determined such that the universe propor­
tion P would lie within a given margin of error d on both sides of the sample
estimator with a certain probability (1 — a), which is equivalent to saying
that the acceptable risk that the universe proportion P will lie outside the
limits p ± d is a. For this, we use the assumption (which holds when n is
large and the proportion P is not too small) that the sample proportion is
normally distributed with mean P and standard deviation ap. Then the
(1 — a) per cent probability limits of the universe proportion P are

P± ta(Tp (7.6)
Size of Sample: Cost and Error 127

where ta is the value of the standard normal deviate that cuts off a total area
a from both the tails taken together in the normal curve. Some illustrative
values of ta are given in Appendix III, Table 2; for example, for a = 0.05
(1 in 20), 1 — a = 0.95 and t = 1.96 or approximately 2.
Setting the permissible margin of error
d = taap = tay/[P(l-P)/n] (7.7)
and solving for n, we get
n = t2aP(l - P)/d2 (7.8)
In Appendix III, Table 3 have been tabulated the values of CV per
unit in the universe for some values of the universe proportion P, and
in Appendix III, Table 4, the required sample sizes (n) corresponding to
given values of the universe CV per unit and the desired CV of the sample
estimator. Given a value of P, the universe CV per unit can be obtained
from equation (7.4) or read off Appendix III, Table 3; and the required
sample size n can then be obtained from equation (7.5) or from Appendix
III, Table 4, given the desired CV of the sample estimator e.
The margin of error d can be expressed as
d = taap = taPe (7.9)
Notes
1. As the CV of the estimated number of units possessing an attribute is
the same as that of the estimated proportion of such units in the universe
(exercise 6, Chapter 2), the same formulae for n will hold for the estimated
number with the attribute as for the estimated proportion.
2. As the universe proportion P will not generally be known, an advance
estimate p may be taken and used in the preceding equations.
3. As the value of p(l — p) increases as p approaches 1/2, a safer estimate of
n is obtained on taking as an advance estimate that value of p which is
nearer to 1/2; for p = 1/2, the margin of error takes the maximum value
(from equation 7.7)
d = taffp = 1.96 x ^/[(1/2 x l/2)/n] = 0.98/Vn = 1/-^
approximately, for a = 0.05 (i.e., 95% confidence limits).
This is a good back-of-the-envelope formula to remember. For example,
for a sample of size 1,296 persons, d = 1/^/1, 296 = 1/36, i.e., about 3 per
cent.
For very small p, the advanced estimate should not be too rough; in this
case, the Poisson approximation can be used, so that equation (7.8) is
simplified to
n = ti P/d2 (7.10)
128 Chapter 7

and equation (7.3) to

n = 1/Pe2 (7-11)
(The Poisson distribution can be regarded as the limiting distribution of a
binomial when P becomes indefinitely small and n increases sufficiently to
keep nP finite (say m), but not necessarily large; both the mean and the
universe variance per unit are then equal to m).
4. When sampling is without replacement, and the sampling fraction n/N is
not negligible, a more satisfactory estimate of the sample size is

'= n (7.12)
1 + n/N
where n is obtained from the previous equations on the basis of assumption
of sampling with replacement.
5. In practice, estimates of proportion and ratios such as birth and death rates
are seldom obtained from a simple random sample of individuals.

Example 7.1

A survey is to be made of the prevalence of the common diseases in a large

population. For any disease that affects at least 1 per cent of the individuals in
the population, it is desired to estimate the total number of cases with CV of not
more than 20 per cent. What size of a simple random sample is needed, assuming
that the presence of the disease can be recognized without mistake? (Cochran,
exercise 4.3).
As the CV of a sample proportion is the same as the CV of the number
of persons possessing the attribute, for P = 0.01, universe CV per unit = 9.95
(from equation (7.4)). As the desired CV is e = 0.20, the required sample size is,
from equation (7.5), n = 2475. Or, from Appendix III, Table 3, CV = 995% for
P = 0.01; and for CV 1000% (nearest to 995%) and e = 20%, n = 2500.

Example 7.2

The (crude) birth rate is to be estimated in a country from a sample survey with
2.5 per cent CV. What is the sample size required if a rough estimate of the
birth rate places it at 40 per 1000 persons?
Here P = 0.04, and the universe CV per unit is 4.9 (from equation (7.4)). As
the desired CV is e = 0.025, n = 38,400 persons (from equation (7.5)).

7.2.2 Sampling of continuous data

If a2 is the universe variance per unit for the study variable, and Y the
universe mean, the universe coefficient of variation per unit in the universe
Size of Sample: Cost and Error 129

is

CV = ff/Y (7.13)

The sampling variance of the sample estimator y, obtained from an srs

of n units (with replacement), is

<r| = o-2/n (7.14)

The CV of the sample estimator y is therefore

e = ffyjY — tr/Yy/n = (universe CV per unit)/\/n (715)

From equation (7.15), the sample size n required to obtain the sample
mean with a given CV e is

n = (universe CV per unit/e)2

= (universe CV per unit/desired CV of sample mean)2 (7.16)

In Appendix III, Table 4, have been given the required sample sizes (n)
corresponding to some values of the universe CV per unit and the desired
CV of the sample mean (e).
The sample size may also be determined such that the acceptable risk
that the universe mean Y will lie outside the limits Y is a. For this, we
assume that the sample mean y is normally distributed with mean Y and
standard deviation ffy = <r¡y/n. The (1 — a) per cent confidence limits of
the universe mean Y are

y±t<^ (7.17)

where ta is the value of the standard normal deviate that cuts off a total area
a from both the tails taken together in the normal curve. Some illustrative
values of ta are given in Appendix III, Table 2.
Setting the permissible margin of error

d = taffy = taff/\/n (7.18)

and solving for n, we get

n = (facr/d)2 = cr2/V (7.19)

where V is the desired variance of the sample mean. This determines the
sample size n, given the values of ¿r, d and a.
130 Chapter 7

Notes
1. If the universe total Y is to be estimated with margin of error D, the sample
size required is
n = (Ntff/D)2 = {Na)2/V' (7.20)
where V' is the desired variance of the sample total. Note that the unbiased
estimators of the universe mean and total have the same CV (exercise 2,
chapter 6), and equations (7.19) and (7.20) give the same value of n.
2. The above formulation assumes a knowledge of universe CV or cr. The
universe CV remains remarkably stable over time and space and for char­
acteristics of the same nature as the study variable; the CV for a previous
study in the same or a different area for a related characteristic may there­
fore be taken. An advance estimate of tr may be taken from a pilot or some
other study.
3. When sampling is without replacement, and the sampling fraction n/N is
not negligible, a more satisfactory estimator of the sample size is
' - n (721)
n ~ 1 + n/N
This applied both to equations (7.19) and (7.20).
4. If a sample of size n gives a CV e for a sample estimator (mean or total),
then to obtain the sample estimator with CV e , the required sample size
is
n = n(e/e )2 (7.22)
This follows from the relation
{CV per unit)2 = ne2 = n e 2 (7.23)
which in turn follows from equation (7.15).

Example 7.3

The coefficients of variation per unit (an area of 1 mile square) obtained in a farm
survey in Iowa, U.S.A, are given in Table 7.1. A survey is planned to estimate
acreage items with a CV of 2.5 per cent, and the number of workers (excluding
the unemployed) with a CV of 5 per cent. With simple random sampling, how
many units are needed? How well would this sample be expected to estimate the
number unemployed? (Cochran, exercise 4.5).
The maximum CV of the items (other than the number unemployed) is that
of the number of hired workers, for which the CV is 1.10, the desired CV of which
is 0.05. From equation (7.16),
n = {CV per unit/desired CV of sample estimator)2
= (1.10/0.05)2 = 222 = 484
Size of Sample: Cost and Error 131

Table 7.1: Coefficients of variation per unit (area of 1 mile square) in a

farm survey in Iowa, U.S.A.

Acres Acres Acres No. of No. of No. of

in farms in com in oats family hired un­
workers workers employed

Estimated CV per 38 39 44 100 110 317

unit (%)

Source: Cochran (1977), exercise 4.5

The acreage items are required with CV of 0.025. Taking the acreage item
with the maximum CV, namely, acres in oats, the required sample size is, from
equation (7.16),
n = (0.44/0.025)2 = 17.62 = 310
so that with a sample size of 484, required for the number of workers, the desired
CV of the acreage items will also be attained.
For the number unemployed, we get, from equation (7.15), the CV of the
sample estimator from a sample of size 484,

e = CV per unit/-\/n = 3.17/22 = 0.144 or 14.4%

Example 7.4

In a village of 625 households, a simple random sample of 50 households were

surveyed in order to estimate the average monthly household expenditure on
toilet items. The estimate came out at $0.88 with a standard error of $0.10.
Using this information, determine the sample size required to estimate the same
characteristic in a neighboring village such that the permissible margin of error
at 95 per cent probability level is 10 per cent of the true value (adapted from
Murthy, problem 4.5).
We assume that the CV per unit is the same in both villages. From the first
village, the CV of the sample estimator based on 50 households is e = Sy/y =
$0.10/$0.88 = 0.1136. The permissible margin of error of the estimator in the
second village is

d' = 10 per cent of the true value at 95 per cent probability level, or

0.1 Y' = d' =

132 Chapter 7

from equation (7.18); i.e. the desired CV for the sample estimator in the second
village is
e' = a'y/Y = 0.1/2 = 0.05
From equation (7.22), the required sample size in the second village is

n = n^e/e')2 = 50 x (0.1136/0.05)2 = 50 x 2.272 = 258

7.2.3 Sample sizes for sub-divisions of the universe

If estimates are required not only for the universe as a whole, but for sub­
divisions such as geographical area, or sex and age groups of the population,
obviously the sample size, obtained to estimate the overall universe value
with a given precision, must be enlarged if estimators for the sub-divisions
are required with the same precision as that of the overall universe estima­
tors.
As a rough rule, if estimators with variance V are required for each of
the k universe sub-divisions, the sample size should be

n = kn (7.24)

where n is the required sample size for the overall universe estimate with the
same variance V. The assumptions are that the per unit CVs of the sub­
divisions are about equal, that the sub-divisions are approximately equal
in size, and that the overall sample is large.
If the proportion of the universe units in any sub-division pt, is known
or could be estimated, the required sample size to estimate the average
from the sub-division with variance V is

ni = (Ti/PiV (7.25)

where af is the variance per unit in the zth sub-division and npi is large.
We have to take the maximum value of the right-hand side of equation
(7.25) in order that it holds for all sub-divisions,

n = maximum (<r?/piV) = (<t2/V) maximum (l/pt) (7.26)

as the <r2s will, on an average, be slightly smaller than the universe variance
<r2. If the sub-divisions are approximately equal in size, the pt may be taken
to be equal to 1/A”, and this relation is used in equation (7.25).
Size of Sample: Cost and Error 133

Example 7.5

In Example 7.1, what size of sample is required if total cases are wanted separately
for males and females, with the same precision? (Cochran, exercise 4.3).
Here k = 2, and assuming that males and females are about equal in number
in the population, we have, from equation (7.24), n = 2 x 2475 = 4590.

7.3 Estimation of variance

An estimate of the universe variance or CV may be made from pilot studies

or from data of related characteristics. The relations between the range
(A) and the variance of mathematical distributions can also be utilized
for estimating the variance. Deming (1960) has given the following rules
(Table 7.2) for estimating the variance from the range if the shape of the
distribution is known or could be guessed.

Table 7.2: Rules for estimating the variance from the range (h) depending
on the shape of the distribution

Type Mean Variance Standard Coefficient

deviation of variation

Binomial ph p(l -p)/h2 -p)] x/[(i -p)/p]

Rectangular 1/2 h h2/12 0.29 h 0.58
Right-triangle (I) 1/3 h h2/18 0.24 h 0.71
Right-triangle (II) 2/3 h h2/18 0.24 h 0.35
Symmetrical triangle l/2h h2/21 0.20 h 0.40
Normal 1/2 h h2/36 h/G 1/3
(Set h = 6ct)

Source: Deming (1960), p. 260.

Right-triangle (I) Right-triangle (II)

134 Chapter 7

Note: The mathematical relations are not of much use if h is large or cannot be
estimated closely. If h is large, the universe can be stratified (Part II) when, within
a stratum, the shape of the distribution becomes simpler, closer to a rectangle, if
stratification is effective and the mathematical relation between h and <r can be
used for each stratum.

Example 7.6

The four-year colleges in the U.S.A, were divided into classes of four different
sizes according to their 1952-3 enrollments. The standard deviations within each
class are given in Table 7.3. If you know the class boundaries but not the value
of <r, how well can you guess the a values by using simple mathematical figures?
No college has less than 200 students and the largest has about 50,000 students
(Cochran, exercise 4.8).
Assuming a rectangular distribution within each class, the range (A) and the
estimates of standard deviation (= 0.29 h) are given in Table 7.3. If for Size class
1, we assume the right triangle distribution (II), the estimate s.d. = 0.24 h = 192;
and if for Size class 4, we assume the right triangle distribution (I), estimated s.d.
= 0.24 ft = 9600.

Table 7.3: Actual and estimated standard deviations within each size class
of four-year colleges in the U.S.A., 1952-3

Size class of colleges

1 2 3 4

Number of students up to 1000 1000-3000 3000-10,000 10,000+

Range (ft) 800 2000 7000 40,000
Standard deviation
(a) actual 236 625 2000 10,023
(b) estimate (= 0.29 ft) 232 580 2030 11,600
(c) estimated 192 580 2030 9600
(0.24ft) (0.29ft) (0.29ft) (0.24ft)

Source: Cochran, exercise 4.8.

7.4 Cost considerations

We have seen how to obtain the sample size required to provide estimators
with a given precision in simple random sampling. To determine the implied
Size of Sample: Cost and Error 135

total cost of the survey, we take the simplest type of cost function

c = Co + HCi (7.27)

where co is the overhead cost, and ci the cost of surveying one sample unit.
On the other hand, if the total cost C is fixed, the sample size is deter­
mined from the above relation, namely

n = (C - c0)/ci (7.28)

and the only thing left is to estimate the expected CV of the sample es­
timators from a sample of this size if prior information is available on the
variability of data.

7.5 Balance of cost and error

With increase in sample size, the cost of the survey increases but the sam­
pling error, and so the loss involved in basing any decision on the sample
estimators, decreases; it is necessary to express this loss in monetary terms
in order to find a balance between cost and error.
Taking an srs (with replacement) of n units, where the sample mean y
is used to estimate the universe mean Y, the error in the estimator y is

b=y—Y

If the loss due to this error b in the estimator y is taken as proportional to

b2, the expected loss for a given sample size is

(7.29)

where / is the constant of proportionality. With a total survey cost C,

given by equation (7.27), the reasonable procedure would be to obtain the
value of n that minimizes the total survey cost plus the loss involved with
a sample of that size, namely, to minimize

(7.30)

The minimizing value of n is obtained on partially differentiating equation

(7.30) with respect to n, and equating the result to zero, when

n=a (7.31)
136 Chapter 7

7.6 Cluster sampling

7.6.1 Sample size in cluster sampling

As cluster sampling is generally less efficient than an srs of the same size
(Chapter 6), a larger total number of elementary units have to be included
in a cluster sample in order to attain the same degree of precision as that
of an unrestricted srs of the elementary units.
From equation (6.17) and section 6.2, it is seen that the relative change
in variance due to sampling clusters instead of the elementary units directly
is (Afo — l)pc ~ when Mq (the cluster size) is large.
The required sample size due to sampling clusters is approximately

nc = n(l + Mopc) (7.32)

where n is the sample size required for the given precision had the ultimate
units been sampled directly.

Example 7.7

In Example 7.2, what would be the sample size required for estimating the birth
rate with 2.5 per cent CV if clusters of 300 persons each are taken and the
intraclass correlation coefficient is estimated at 0.001?
From equation (7.32), nc = 38,400 (1 4-300 x 0.001) = 49,920, an increase of
30 per cent.

7.6.2 Optimal cluster size

The formulation in section 7.6.1 does not take into account the question of
cost, for a cluster sample is less costly to enumerate than a direct sample
of the elementary units. The optimal cluster size is so determined that the
sampling variance is minimized for a given total cost or the total cost is
minimized for a given precision.
A simple cost function with cluster sampling is

C = c0 + nci 4- nMoc-2 (7.33)

where co is the overhead cost, cy the cost of travel, identification, contact

etc., per cluster, and C2 the cost of enumerating one ultimate unit. Gener­
ally, C2 will be considerably smaller than Ci.
If the total cost is fixed at C, the value of n (the number of sample
clusters) is (from equation 7-33)

n = (C - c0)/(ci 4- Moc2) (7.34)

Size of Sample: Cost and Error 137

The universe variance of the sample cluster mean yc is, from equation (6.17),
“ <r2/n = a2[l + (Mo - l)pc]/nM0
= (rffc! + MqC?)/(C — Co) from equation (7.34)
= C1<t2(1 + M0c2/C1)[l + (Mo - l)pc]/M0(C - co) (7.35)
If previous information is available from empirical or pilot studies, the
values of the equation (7.35) can be computed and plotted for different
values of Mo, to show the particular value of Mo that minimizes the ex­
pression.
Putting
C — co — C — nc\ -|- nMoC2 (7.36)
the optimal cluster size is

£1 1 ~ pc
(7.37)
.c2 Pc .
In practice, instead of dealing with the costs c\ and C2, we might con­
sider the man-days required to be spent on the different operations. If the
enumerators work singly, ci may be 2 to 3 man-days, and if 30 to 50 per­
sons can be enumerated per day in a demographic inquiry, c2 will be from
1/30 to 1/50 man-day; the ratio ci/c2 will then range from 60 to 150. The
optimal size of cluster for some typical values of the ratio C1/C2 and of pc
are given in Table 7.4.

Table 7.4: Optimum size of cluster (number of persons) in typical surveys

on birth and death rates

Intraclass correlation coefficient pc

Cl/C2 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005

50 224 158 129 112 100

75 274 194 158 137 122
100 316 224 183 158 141
125 373 264 215 187 158
150 387 274 223 194 173

Taking a typical value of the ratio Cx/c2 as 100, and the value of the
intraclass correlation coefficient at 0.001 for the birth rate, the optimal clus­
ter size is 316 persons; for the death rate, taking the intraclass correlation
138 Chapter 7

coefficient at 0.003, the optimal cluster size is 183 persons. The value of n
(number of sample clusters) is determined from equation (7.34), given the
values of C, co, ci, C2 and the optimum value of Mq.
Note that optimal cluster size is generally very broad (except for very
small values of the intraclass correlation coefficient), so that substantial
deviations from the optimal cluster size would not affect the cost very much.

Example 7.8

For a survey on birth rate, given that the total cost, neglecting overheads, is
fixed at $20,000, and the enumerator cost per month is $300, what is the optimal
size of sample if it is decided to select a cluster of persons, assuming that an
enumerator has to spend, on average, two days in contacting the clusters and in
other preliminary work; that he can enumerate an average of 40 persons a day;
and that the intraclass correlation is estimated at 0.001?
Here C = $20,000; 1 man-day = $300/30 = $10; c\ — 2.5 man-days = $25;
C2 = 1/40 man-day = $0.25, so that C1/C2 = 100; pc — 0.001. From Table 7.4,
the optimal size of cluster is 316 persons. Taking Afo at 300 persons, the total
cost (neglecting overheads) is, from equation (7.33)

$20, 000 = $25 n + $0.25 x 300 n = $25 n + $75 n = $100 n,

or n = 200 sample clusters. The total sample size is nMo = 200 x 300 = 60, 000
persons.

7.7 General remarks

Estimates of sample size required to obtain measures with a given preci­

sion will often be found to be quite large, when derived on the basis of
unrestricted simple random sampling. But the “paean for large samples
must be interrupted with caveats” (Kish, 1971). First, an unrestricted sim­
ple random sample is rarely used in practice; and, as noted earlier, special
procedures (such as stratification, pps sampling etc.) and methods of esti­
mation (such as ratio and regression methods) that require smaller sample
sizes than srs, are used to provide estimators with the same or higher effi­
ciency. Second, small samples have proved useful, not only as pilot studies
to full-scale surveys, but also in providing interim estimates as in the ear­
lier “rounds” of the Indian National Sample Survey where fairly accurate
estimates of birth and death rates were obtained from only 3,000 to 8,000
sample households after special analytical techniques were applied (section
25.5.5): later, in 1958-9, the inquiry on population, births, and deaths was
made to cover 2,600 sample villages with 234,000 households and 1.2 mil­
lion persons. Third, a country with inadequate resources can start from a
Size of Sample: Cost and Error 139

small sample and with increasing resources build up a fully adequate sam­
ple; the Current Population Survey of the U.S.A., for example, started in
1943 with 68 primary areas which were enlarged to the present 449. Fourth,
it is possible to combine smaller monthly or quarterly estimates into yearly
estimates, and the yearly estimates into estimates covering longer periods,
to provide estimates with acceptable precision. And finally, in the interest
of true accuracy, it may sometimes be better to conduct a smaller sample
with adequate control than try to canvass a much larger sample but with
poor quality data (see also Chapter 25).

Further reading
Cochran, chapter 4 and section 9.6; Deining (1950), chapter 14; Hansen et al.
(1953), vol. I, section 4.11 and chapter 6D, and vol. II, section 4.9; Hedayat
and Sinha, chapter 5; Levy and Lemeshaw, section 14.3; Kish (1965), section 2.6;
Murthy (1967), sections 4.6 and 8.3; Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 1.9, 1.10,
and 2.9-2.11; Yates, section 4.32.

Exercises

1. In newspapers in the U.S., items such as the following often appear:

“A poll taken recently of 1,296 persons nation-wide gave Presi­
dent Bill Clinton a 52/38 approval/disapproval rating; the mar­
gin of error was 3 per cent.”
Confirm the margin of error.
(Hint: Use equation (7.7). See also Note 3 to section 7.2)
2. Material for the construction of 5000 wells was issued in a district in India in
1944. The list of cultivators to whom the material was issued was available
along with the proposed location of each well. A large part of the material
was, however, reported to have been misused, having been diverted to
other purposes. It is proposed to estimate the proportion of wells not
actually constructed, by taking a simple random sample of wells with the
permissible margin of error of 10 per cent, and the degree of assurance
desired 95 per cent. Determine the size of the sample required to estimate
the proportion of wells not constructed for different values of the universe
proportion ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 (Sukhatme et al. (1984), example 2.5,
modified to with replacement plan in our answer.)
3. An anthropologist wishes to know the percentage of people with blood-
group “O” in an island of 3200 persons with a margin of 5 per cent and 95
per cent degree of assurance. What is the required sample size? (Cochran,
pp. 72-73.)
4. From the estimates obtained from the srs of 20 households in Example
2.2, compute the sample size required to provide an estimate of the total
140 Chapter 7

number of persons in the universe within 10 per cent, apart from a chance
of 1 in 20.
5. For the 30 villages listed in Appendix IV, if no village is assumed to have
less than 60 or more than 150 persons, estimate the s.d.
CHAPTER 8

Self-weighting Designs

8.1 Introduction

To obtain estimates of totals, the sample observations have to be multiplied

by factors, variously called weights, multipliers, or weighting, raising or
inflation factors, which depend on the particular sample design and the
method of estimation adopted. A sample design becomes self-weighting
with respect to the particular linear estimator of a total (or an average)
when the multipliers of the sample units are all equal: with only one multi­
plier, the tabulation becomes simpler, speedier and more economical, as the
unbiased estimator of the universe total is obtained on multiplying the sam­
ple total by the constant, overall multiplier, and the estimator of the ratio
of the universe totals of two variables is obtained on taking the ratio of the
corresponding sample totals; the estimation of the variances, covariances,
etc., is also simplified.
The problem of how to make a design self-weighting becomes partic­
ularly important in stratified multi-stage designs, but the principles are
introduced in this chapter relating to unstratified single-stage samples.

8.2 Simple random sampling

For a simple random sample, the design is self-weighting with respect to the
unbiased estimators of universe totals, averages, and ratios. For with the
notations used in Chapter 2, an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y,
obtained from a simple random sample of n units out of the universe total
of N units, is

n
Vo = N^yi/n (8-1)

141
142 Chapter 8

where yi (i = 1,2,..., n) is the value of the study variable for the ¿th sample
unit. The weighting factor for the ¿th sample unit it, therefore,

Wi = N/n (8.2)

which, when multiplied by t/, and added for the n sample units, provide the
unbiased estimator t/g °f the universe total Y. The multiplier is constant
for all the sample units.
Similarly, the unbiased estimator of the universe mean Y is given by the
sample mean
n
j/ = ^2i/,7n (8.3)

where the multiplier is 1/n, constant for all the sample units.
In the estimation of the ratio of two universe totals, the sample estimator
is

r = 12yi/12Xi (8-4)

Here, because the design is self-weighting with respect to the two totals,
the multiplier does not enter in the ratio; it does not also enter into the
estimating equation for the variance of the ratio.

8.3 Varying probability sampling

In sampling with varying probability, the single-stage sample cannot in

general be made self-weighting.
The unbiased estimator of the universe total Y obtained from a pps
sample of n units is
n
S/o = 52i/i/n7r‘

where 7r, is the probability of selection of the ¿th unit.

The multiplier of the ¿th sample unit for estimating the universe total
Y is

Wi = 1/niTi (8.6)

which will not be the same for all the sample units, and the design will not,
therefore, be self-weighting.
Self-weighting Designs 143

However, if tt, = zijZ, where z,- is the ‘size’ of the ith universe unit and
Z= zi is the total ‘size’ of the universe, then

Vo = z^ri/n (8.7)

where r, = yi/zi.
If the ratios r,- = yi/z could be observed and recorded easily in the field,
so that the r,s could be considered as the values of a newly defined study
variable, then the design will be self-weighting with respect to the unbiased
estimators, for the multipliers for the r,- values are w' — Zin which are the
same for all the sample units. This has practical uses in crop surveys, as
we have seen in section 5.5.

Notes
1. A pps sample design can be made self-weighting at the tabulation stage by
selecting a sub-sample of the sample units with probability proportional
to the multipliers, but the sampling variance will be increased (see section
13.5).
2. We shall see later in Chapters 18 and 23 how in a multi-stage design the
sample can be made self-weighting even with pps sampling at some stages.

8.4 Rounding off of multipliers

When the original design is not self-weighting, one of the following pro­
cedures may be adopted to reduce the number of multipliers and thus to
achieve at least partial self-weighting at the tabulation stage.
1. The multipliers wts may be replaced by their simple average.
2. The multipliers may be rounded off to some convenient numbers as
the nearest multiples of ten, hundred etc.
3. The multipliers may be rounded off to a small number of weights by
a random process which would retain the unbiased character of the
estimators (Note 3(c) to section 12.3.3).
4. A sub-sample of n' ultimate units may be selected from the original
sample with probability proportional to their multipliers (Note 1 to
section 8.3).
The first two procedures will lead to biased estimates with possible de­
crease in variance. However, the bias in the first procedure will be negligible
if in the sample the covariance between the sample values and the multipli­
ers is small. The third and the fourth procedures give unbiased estimators
144 Chapter 8

but with some increase in variance. In the third procedure, determination

of optimum weights is very complicated if the number of such weights ex­
ceed three; on the other hand, the increase in variance will be large for a
small number of weights.
PART II

STRATIFIED SINGLE-STAGE
SAMPLING
CHAPTER 9

Stratified Sampling: Introduction

9.1 Introduction

If the universe is sub-divided into a number of sub-universes, called strata,

and sampling is carried out independently in each stratum, the sampling
plan is known as stratified sampling. Stratified sampling can be used in
single- as well as multi-stage designs.
In this part, we shall illustrate the use of stratification in single-stage
designs. The general theorems relating to stratified sampling will be dealt
with in the present chapter; subsequent chapters in Part II will deal with
stratified simple-random and varying-probability sampling; the size of the
sample and allocation to different strata; formation of strata; and self­
weighting designs.

9.2 Reasons for stratification

Stratified sampling is adopted in a number of situations:

1. when estimates are required for each sub-division of the universe
separately, such as for geographical sub-divisions or for households in
different social and economic groups in a household survey;
2. when estimates of universe characteristics are required with increased
efficiency per unit of cost;
3. when a greater weightage is required to be given to some units that
occur infrequently in the universe, such as households with very high
incomes; and when the universe has a large variance, i.e. the units
vary greatly in the values;
4. when different sampling procedures are to be adopted for different
sub-universes, in which case the field work is easier to organize in

147
148 Chapter 9

the different strata, formed according to the nature of the available

ancillary information required for sample selection. For example, the
population in many African countries can be classified according to
their modes of living into urban, rural-sedentary, and rural-nomad;
and these can be considered to constitute different strata; the sam­
pling units - at least for the first-stage in a multi-stage design -
could be town-blocks for the urban stratum, villages for the rural-
sedentary stratum, and tribal hierarchies for the rural-nomad stra­
tum. In sampling human populations, people in institutions such as
boarding houses, hospitals, and jails may be considered separately
from those living in households. Sampling might be simple random
in one stratum, with probability proportional to size in another, and
so on. The geographical strata may be further subdivided, each sub­
stratum, for example, being allotted to a separate supervisor.

Notes
1. That stratification may lead to a gain in efficiency per unit of cost may be
seen if we consider a universe composed of strata that are, with respect to
the study variable, internally homogeneous, but heterogeneous with respect
to each other: in this case, a very small sample from each strata would
provide estimates with relatively small sampling variances.
Taking an extreme case, consider the universe of six households with
respective sizes 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, and 5. The reader will verify that the variance
per unit in this universe is <r2 = 0.25. If we were to draw a simple random
sample of 4 households with replacement from this universe, an unbiased
estimator of the total size is Nÿ (where N = 6 and ÿ is the sample mean,
based on n = 4 sample units), with the sampling variance №<t2/n = 2.25.
Suppose, however, that the universe is subdivided into two strata, the first
with the three households each of size 4, and the second with the other three
households each of size 5; and an srs with replacement of 2 units is to be
drawn from each stratum. Then, as we shall see later, an unbiased estimator
of the total size is (Aij/j + N2^2), where M = 3, N2 = 3, being respectively
the total number of units in the two strata, and Vi and I/2 fhe respective
stratum means based on ni = 2 and 712 = 2 sample units; the sampling
variance of this unbiased estimator of the total is AfiTj/ni 4-jV2<72/n2 = 0,
as the variance per unit in the two strata a2 = er2 = 0.
2. Stratification may be carried out at different stages of sampling. The
most common type of stratification is by administrative and geographi­
cal sub-division, such as by provinces, prefectures, counties, districts, and
rural/urban categories. In household surveys, stratification is often carried
out before the sample households are selected, by listing the households
from which the sample is to be drawn, and recording such of other charac­
teristics that may be readily obtained, e.g. size, and social and economic
Stratified Sampling: Introduction 149

classes; the households are then stratified on the basis of the characteris­
tics recorded and then sampled (with a different sampling fraction) in each
stratum.
3. Strata may be formed of units that are not geographically contiguous. Thus
in a rural socio-economic survey, the villages may be stratified according
to their population as given by the most recent census; or in a crop-yield
survey, the fields may be classified according as they are irrigated or not;
in the demographic inquiry in Mysore (a former State in India), conducted
by the United Nations and the Government of India in 1951-2, three strata
were formed in the rural areas; rural hills area with large-scale anti-malarial
operations, rural hills area without large-scale anti-malarial operations, and
rural plains (tank-irrigated area).
4. The data from a sample design that is not stratified, or is stratified ac­
cording to some variable other than that desired, may, under some circum­
stances, be treated as if coming from a sample stratified according to the
desirable stratification variable. This technique known as stratification af­
ter sampling or the technique of post-stratification, is explained in Chapter
10 in connection with stratified simple random sampling.

9.3 Fundamental theorems in stratified sampling

In the following the fundamental theorems given in section 2.7 are extended
to the case of stratified sample designs.
1. The universe is sub-divided into L mutually exclusive and exhaus­
tive strata. In the /ith stratum (/i = 1,2,... ,£), there are (> 2)
independent and unbiased estimators thi (i = 1,2,..., n/>) of the uni­
verse parameter a combined unbiased estimator of Th is, from
estimating equation (2.28), the arithmetic mean

1=1

An unbiased estimator of the variance of th is, from equation (2.29),

s2h = ^(thi ~ th)2/nh(nh - 1) = SSthi/nh(nh - 1) (9.2)

¿=1

where

SSthi ^(thi - th)12

t=l
2

(9.3)
1=1
150 Chapter 9

is the corrected sum of squares of thi-

An unbiased estimator of the universe parameter for all the strata
combined
L
T=Y^Th (9.4)
h=l

is obtained on summing up the stratum estimators th, namely,

L
i = 52^
(9-5)
A=1

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of t is obtained on summing

the L unbiased estimators of the stratum variances (sampling
in one stratum is independent of sampling in another, so that the
stratum estimators th are mutually independent)
L
(9.6)
h=i

For another study variable similarly defined, an unbiased estimator

of the universe parameter
L
u = ^uh (9.7)
h=l

is the sum of the stratum estimators Uh of Uh,

L
u = ^Tuh (9.8)
A=1

and an unbiased variance estimator of u is the sum of the L unbiased

estimators of the stratum variances s^h, i.e.

«2 = 52(9-9)

h=l

2. An unbiased estimator of the covariance of th and Uh for the hth

stratum is, from equation (2.32),
nh
sthûh - 52(^» - -ûh)/nh(nh -1)
»=1
= SPthiUhi/nh(nh - 1) (9.10)
Stratified Sampling: Introduction 151

where
”x
SPthi^hi — Uh}
i=l
«x / nx \ / «X \ /
= ~ ( Ylthi ) ( ^Uhi } / ^ (911)

is the corrected sum of products of thi and u^t .

For all the strata combined, an unbiased estimator of the covariance
between t and u is the sum of the stratum estimators sy y, i.e.
L
Siu = 52 stxüx (912)
h=l

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the ratio of two universe

parameters in the /ith stratum Rh = Th/Uh is, from equation (2.33),
the ratio of the sample estimators th and üh in the stratum

rh = th/üh (9.13)
with estimated variance (from equation (2.34))
< = (s?x + rhsk ~ 2r^txüx)/ïïh (9-14)

For all the strata combined, a consistent but generally biased estima­
tor of the ratio of two universe parameters R = T/U is the ratio of
the respective sample estimators t and u,
r = t/u (9.15)

with estimated variance

r = (st2 -I- r2s2 - 2rstu}/u2
s2 (9.16)

A generally biased but consistent estimator of the correlation coeffi­

cient ph between the two study variables at the stratum level is, from
equation (2.35),

Ph = stküJstsh (917)
and an estimator of the correlation coefficient p of the two study
variables at the overall level is

P — Stu/ sts‘ (9.18)

152 Chapter 9

Notes
1. The question of formation of strata, and the allocation of the total number
of sample units into the different strata will be taken up later in Chapter
12.
2. Estimates are often required for higher levels of aggregation than strata,
in addition to the overall universe estimators. For example, for the Indian
National Sample Survey on Population, Births and Deaths (1958-9), the
strata consisted of tehsils or groups of tehsils (a tehsil being an admin­
istrative unit comprising a number of villages and some small towns); a
sample of villages was selected from each stratum and the population and
the births and deaths during the preceding twelve months recorded. The
country comprises a number of states, each state comprising a number of
tehsils, and estimates were required not only for the country as a whole,
but also for the states separately. For estimates for the whole country, es­
timating equations of the types (9.5), (9.6), (9.12), (9.15), and (9.16) were
used; for the estimates for the states, the same types of equations were used
excepting that for any state, the values of only those strata that fell within
the state were considered (see Example 10.3).
3. As noted in section 9.2, the selection probabilities might be different in
different strata.
4. For other notes, e.g. relating to estimators of ratios, see the notes to section
2.7.

9.4 Setting of confidence limits

We have seen in section 2.8 that for an unstratified single-stage sample, the
(100 — a) per cent confidence limits of a universe parameter T are set with
the sample estimator t and its estimated standard error s*, thus:

(2.40)

where t'a n-1 is the 100a percentage point of the /-distribution for (n — 1)
degrees of freedom. It was also noted that for large n, the percentage points
of the normal distribution could be used for those of the /-distribution.
The above holds for each stratum separately. Thus the 100a per cent
confidence limits of the universe parameter for the /ith stratum are

th i ia,nh-isth (9.19)

the sample stratum estimator th being defined by equation (9.1) and its
estimated standard error by equation (9.2).
For the confidence limits of the overall universe parameter T, the nor­
mal distribution may be used if the estimators of variances of the stratum
Stratified Sampling: Introduction 153

estimators th, namely , are based on not too few degrees of freedom
and it is assumed that the overall universe estimator t, defined by equation
(9.5), is normally distributed. Then

t ± t'ast

are the (100 — a) per cent confidence limits of the universe parameter T
where is defined by equation (9.5) and t'a is the normal percentage point
for probability a.
If, however, the variance estimators in the different strata s? are based
on small numbers of degrees of freedom, the normal distribution cannot be
used. The /-distribution can be used by computing the effective number of
degrees of freedom.

II
n (9.21)
EX !(nk -1)]

which will lie between (the smallest of the) — 1 and ^L(nh — 1). The
(100 — o) per cent confidence limits of T are

<±X'S' (9.22)

where t' ,, is the 100o percentage point of the /-distribution of n degrees

of freedom.

9.5 Selection of two units from each stratum

The computation of estimates is considerably simplified when, in each stra­

tum, two units are selected with replacement out of the total number of
units. Noting that nh = 2 in this case,

th = (thi + ^2) (9.23)

where th\ and /^2 are the two unbiased estimators of Th from the two
selected sample units.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of th is

< = 024)

so that

sth = 2 l</11 ” th2\ (9.25)

154 Chapter 9

An unbiased estimator of the covariance of th and Uh is

~ 4 (thl ~ th2)(uhi - uh2)

Also,

rh - th/uh = (thl + th2)/(uhl + lih2) (9.27)

with a variance estimator

(thl h2) 2 +
- * h(uhl - Uh2)2
r2 ~ 2rA(tA1 - t/»2)(UM - Uh2)
s2
(u/11 + uh2y

The overall estimators (for all the strata taken together) are:

l L
t = }^,th — ~ \(thl + ^h2) (9.29)
h=\ 1

s? = EX.
h=l
= h=l
(9.30)

stu L 1 1
- ^S^ = ~^(thl _th2)(uhl _ Uh2) (9.31)
h=l h=l

Also,
L , L
r — t / u — ^(thi + ^2) / 52(whi + U/12) (9.32)
h=l ' h=l

with a variance estimator

2 _ ~ ^2)2 + r2(uhi - uh2)2 - 2r(thl - f/t2)(«fti ~ ^2)]

Eh=i(wM + u^y
(9.33)

Thus the sums and differences of the two estimates obtained from the
two (first-stage) sample units in the different strata supply the required
data for computing the overall estimators and their variances, not only
for the totals but also for the ratios. This procedure has been followed in
the Indian National Sample Survey since its inception in 1950, and some
standard errors of ratios and ratio estimates were published in 1956.
Stratified Sampling: Introduction 155

Note: Another unbiased estimator of the variance of t is

(9.34)
\h=l h=l /

and the corresponding estimated standard error

2 52 52<i,a (9.35)
h=l h=l
These are simpler to compute, but being based on only one degree of freedom will
be less efficient than the estimators defined earlier which are based on an effective
number of degrees of freedom, given by equation (9.21), that will lie between 1
and (Z — 1). Another unbiased estimator of the covariance of t and u can be
defined similarly, and so also the estimated variance of r.

Further reading
Cochran, chapter 5; Hansen et al. (1953), vol. I, chapter 5A; Hedayat and Sinha,
chapter 9; Murthy (1967), sections 7.1-7.3; Sukhatme et al. (1984), chapter 4;
Yates, sections 3.3-3.5.
CHAPTER 10

Stratified Simple Random Sampling

10.1 Introduction

In this chapter we will consider the estimating methods for totals, means,
ratios of study variables and their variances when a simple random sample
has been drawn in each stratum. The methods of estimation of proportion
of units in a category, the use of ratio estimators and stratification after
sampling will also be considered.

10.2 Estimation of totals, means, ratios, and their variances

10.2.1 Structure of a stratified srs

Consider the total universe to be divided on certain criteria into L strata,
and let the hth stratum (h = 1,2,..., L) contain Nh total number of units.
The values of two study variables for the ¿th unit (: = 1, 2,..., Nh) in the
hth stratum will be denoted respectively by Yhi and Xhi- The total number
of units in the universe is
L

N = Y,Nk (10.1)
h=l

In each stratum, a simple random sample is taken with replacement (or

without replacement, but with a small sampling fraction, 10 per cent or
less). Let the number of sample units in the hth stratum be rih and the val­
ues of two study variables for the ¿th selected sample unit (i = 1,2,..., n^)
in the hth stratum be denoted respectively be yhi and Xhi- The total num­
ber of sample units is
L
n = ^nh
(10-2)
h=l

157
158 Chapter 10

10.2.2 Estimators of totals, means, and ratio of two totals

An unbiased estimator of the stratum total Yh, obtained from the :th sample
unit in the Ath stratum is, from equation (2.42),

Vhi = Nhyhi (10.3)

and the combined unbiased estimator for the stratum total Yh, obtained
from the sample units in the hth stratum, is, from equation (2.43) or
(9.1),
nh
y*hO = 52 Vhi/n* = NhVh (10-4)
«=1

where yh = £2"
* yhi/nh is the mean of the yhi values in the hth stratum.
Universe totals, means, and ratios of two totals and their sample esti­
mators are defined in Table 10.1. These follow from the results of section
2.9 for any stratum and of section 9.3 for all the strata combined. The
sample estimators of totals and means are unbiased (theoretical proofs are
given in Appendix II, section A2.3.9); those for ratios are consistent, but
generally biased.

Table 10.1: Some universe parameters and their sample estimators for a
stratified simple random sample

For the hth stratum For all strata combined

Universe Sample Universe Sample

parameter estimator parameter estimator
(a) (b) (c) (d)

For a
study
variable:
Total Yh Y y

= Yh, (10.5)

= NhYK = Nhyh
Mean Y = YK/NK Vh Y = Y/N y/N (10-6)

For two
study
variables:
Ratio of Rk = Yh!Xk rh = Vbo/XHQ R = Y/X r = y/x (10.7)
totals = yh!xh
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 159

10.2.3 Sampling variances and their estimators for a stratum

In the hth stratum, the variance per unit is

- Yh)2/Nh (10.8)
i=l

and the variance of the sample mean yh in a simple random sample (with
replacement) of n/> units is, from equation (2.17),

ak=<rh/nh (10.9)

so that the variance of the sample estimator y^0 of the stratum total is

= Nfâ/nh (10.10)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of the estimator y^Q is, from

equation (2.44) or (9.2),

SKO = “ Vho)2/nh(nh ~ !)

= SSy
* hi/nh(nh - 1)

= Nh ~ yh)2/nh(nh - 1)
i=i
= NlSSyhi/nk(nh - 1) (10.11)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of the sample mean yh is, from

equation (2.46),

4. = sv-JNl (1012)

An unbiased estimator of the covariance of y* hQ and x* hQ (x£0 being de­

fined similarly for another study variable) is from equation (2.47) or (9.10)

sy;0<0 = :~yho)(xhi -Xho)/nh(”h - 1)

= SPyhiXhi/nh(nh - 1)
nh
= Nh^2(yhi -ÿh)(xhi -xh}/nh(nh - 1)
t=l
= N£SPyhixhi/nh(nh - 1) (10.13)
160 Chapter 10

An estimator of the variance of is, from equation (9.14) or (2.49),

4» = (4;0 + risk<, - X»
= (SSyhi + r^SSxhi - 2rhSPyhiXhi}/nh(nh - l)xj (10.14)

10.2.4 Sampling variances and their estimators for all strata combined
The variance of the estimator y of the universe total Y is
L L
= 52 <^0 = 52 N^/nh (10.15)

which is estimated unbiasedly by the sum of the unbiased variance estima­

tors of y* hQ from equation (9.6), namely, by
L
4 = E4;o (1016)
The sampling variance of the estimator of the universe mean is

try/N2 (10.17)

which is estimated unbiasedly by

y/N2
s2 (10.18)

Theoretical proofs of the above are given in Appendix II, section A2.3.9.
An unbiased estimator of the covariance of the estimators y and x is,
from equation (9.12),
L
svx = 52 syloxho (10.19)

A variance estimator of r is from equation (9.16)

sr = (sy + r2s2 -"¿T-Sy^/x2 (10.20)

Notes
1. Sampling without replacement. In srs without replacement, the sample
estimators of a universe total, mean, and ratio of two universe totals remain
the same as for srs with replacement. The sampling variance of y = y^0
is, however, of the form
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 161

(Nh - nh) _ Nhsh f \ (10.21)

(№ - 1) 2^ nh 1 Jh)

where
c2 Nh 2
(10.22)
h ~ Nh - 1 °h
and

fh = nh/Nh (10.23)

ffy is estimated unbiasedly by

(10.24)

where
4 = ¿(y
*
. -ÿ/>)7(«/> -1)
(10.25)
i=i

The sampling variance of the universe mean and its unbiased estimator are
obtained on dividing the respective expressions for the universe total by
№.
Theoretical proofs are given in Appendix II, section A2.3.9.
An unbiased covariance estimator syx is similarly defined and so also
the variance estimator of the ratio r = y/x.
The estimator of the overall universe mean Y is, from equation (10.6d)
L L
ÿ = y/N = ^o/N = y^nhÿh/N (10.26)
h=l h=l

i.e. the weighted average of the sample stratum means (yh), the weights
being Nh/N, the proportion of the total number of universe units contained
in each stratum. This will be the same as the simple unweighted mean of the
values of the study variables (which is the same as the simple unweighted
mean of the sample stratum means),
L nh L

(10.27)
h= l i=l h=l

only when

Nh/N = rih/n or nh/Nh = n/N (10.28)

162 Chapter 10

i.e. when the sampling fraction is the same in all the strata, in which case
«h = (n/N)Nh (10.29)
Thus the allocation of the number of sample units to the different strata is
in proportion to the total number of units in each stratum: this is known
an proportional allocation. It leads to a self-weighting design for a stratified
simple random sample.
3. For other notes relating for example to estimators of ratios, see the notes
to section 2.7.

Example 10.1

From village 8 in state I (Appendix IV), assume that for a family budget inquiry, a
preliminary listing of all the 24 households has been made along with information
on size. Divide these 24 households into two strata - one with households of
size 1-5 persons and the other with size 6 persons and above. Select a simple
random sample (with replacement) of 3 households from the first stratum and of
2 households from the second stratum, and on the basis of the data on income
and food cost of these sample households, estimate for all the 24 households the
total income, total food cost, income per household and per person, food cost per
household and per person and the proportion of income spent on food.
The details of the selected households in the two strata with the required
information are given in Table 10.2. The required computations are shown in a
summary form in Table 10.3 and the final results in Table 10.4.

Table 10.2: Size, total daily income, and food cost in the srs of households
in village no. 8, in state I (Apppendix IV)

Household Household Total daily Daily food

serial no. size income ($) cost ($)

Stratum I (households of size 1-5); total number of households = 17

2 3 33 21
9 4 39 24
11 3 35 22

Stratum II (households of size 6 and above); total number of households = 7

16 6 62 31
22 6 61 29
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 163

Table 10.3: Computation of the required estimates for a stratified srs: data
of Table 10.2

Stratum I Stratum II Combined

(/> = 1) (À = 2)

(1) Number of units: total (TV/,) 17 7 24 (N)

(2) Number of units: sample (n/,) 3 2 5 (n)

For total daily income

(3) Total income in sample

households
$107 $123

(4) Mean income per household

(*
h = xhi/nh) $35.67 $61.50 $43.20tt(r/n)

(5) Estimated total income

*)
(Xh0 = Nh $606.34 $430.5 $1036.84 (x)

3835 7565

(7) /n* 3816.3333 7564.5

(8) SSxm = row (6) — row (7) 18.6667 0.5

(9) SSxhi/nh(nh - 1) 3.1111 0.25

(10) s2. = N2 x row (9) 899.1111 12.25 911.36 (s2)

ho

(11) = sq. root of row (10) $29.99§ $3.5§ $30.19^ (r,)

(12) CV of x^q — row (ll)/row (5) 4.9%§ 0.81%§ 2.91%t

For Food Cost

(13) whl) $67 $60

(14) Mean food cost per household

‘Whi/nh $22.33 $30 $24.57^ (w/N)

(15) Estimated total food cost

(wh0 = Nh™h) $379.67 $210 $589.67 (w)

(!«) E? < 1501 1802

164 Chapter 10

Table 10.3 continued

Stratum I Stratum II Combined

(h=l) (h = 2)

*
(17) (Ea Wh’)2 /nh 1496.3333 1800

(18) SSwh, = row (16) — row (17) 4.3333 2

(19) SSwhi/nh(nh - 1) 0.777778 1

(20) s2w, = X row (19) 224.7777788 49 273.777778

(4-)

* Q = sq. root of row (20)

(21) sw 15.00$ 7$ 16.551 (Sw)

(22) CV of w’j = row (21)/row (15) 3.9%$ 3.33%$ 2.81%+

(23) Proportion of income spent

on food
= who/xho = row(15)/row (5) 0.626166$ 0.487800$ 0.568718 (r)+

(24) 0.3092661§ 0.2379488$ 0.3234402

(r2)f

(25) 2rh 1.243332$ 0.975600$ 1.137436 (2r)+

*
(26) 22" xhlwht 2399 3691

(27) (zL?h x>") Ew>* ‘) 2389.666667 3690

(28) SPxhiWht = row (26) - row (27) 9.333333 1

(29) SPxhlwht/nh(n - 1) 1.555556 0.5

(30) 5x * o = NhX row (29)

* ow 449.55556 24.5 474.055556
(Sjw)

(3!) r2 X s
*
. o 349.993432$ 0.291480$ 294.770278
(r2 X r2)+

(32) 2r/ls1»ow^o 558.946009$ 23.90220$ 539.209802

(2rsIW)+
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 165

Table 10.3 continued

Stratum I Stratum II Combined

(/! = !) (h = 2)

(33) row (20) + row (31) — row (32) 15.825201§ 25.389286§ 29.338254^

(34) <20 367648.1956§ 185 330.25§ 1075 037.1856

(r2) +

(35) s2rh ~ row (33)/x

2
* O.OOOO43O444§ 0.000136995§ 0.0000272904
(^)
*

(36) srjl = sq. root of row (34) 0.00656§ 0.0117§ 0.00522 (sr)t

(37) CV of Th — row (36)/row (23) 1.05%§ 2.40%§ 0.91%t

(4) Average income per

household
xhi/nh $35.67§ $61.50§ $43.20 (x/TV)t

-
(9) s2 = s2. /TV2 3.1111§ 0.25§ 1.582222
V 7 xh xh0/ h
(4/TV2)t

(38) sXh $1.76§ $0.50§ $1.26 (sx/N)l

(14) Average food cost per

household
$22.33§ $30§ $24.57 (w/TV)t

0.777778§ 1§
V > s2w-K = s2*w hQ
(19) . f/TVh2 0.475309

(39) $0.88 $1 $0.69 (sw/N)^

(40) Total number of persons 65 44 109

(41) Average income per head

= row (3)/row (41) $9.33§ $9.78§ $9.511

(42) Estimated S.E. of average

income per head
= row (ll)/row (40) $0.46§ $0.08§ $0.28+
166 Chapter 10

Table 10.3 continued

Stratum I Stratum II Combined

(^ = 1) (/> = 2)

(43) Average food cost per head

= row (15)/row (40) $5.84§ $4.47§ $5.41t

(44) Estimated S.E. of average food cost

per head
= row (21)/row (40) $0.23§ $0.16§ $0.15+

t Not additive, i.e. the combined estimate is not obtained by adding the
stratum estimates.
Obtained by dividing the value of x by N (= 24).
§ Computations not necessary if separate estimates are not required for each
stratum.
Obtained by dividing the value of w by N (= 24).

Table 10.4: Estimates and standard errors of income and food costs, com­
puted from the data of Tables 10.2 and 10.3: Stratified srs of households

Item Estimate Standard CV

error (%)

1. Daily income
(i) Total $1037 $30.19 2.91
(ii) Per household $43.50 $1.26 2.91
(iii) Per person $9.51 $0.28 2.91

2. Daily Food cost

(i) Total $590 $16.55 2.81
(ii) Per household $24.57 $0.69 2.81
(iii) Per person $5.41 $0.15 2.81

3. Proportion of income
spent on food 0.5687 0.00522 0.92
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 167

Example 10.2

From each of the three states (Appendix IV), select a simple random sample
(with replacement) of two villages each, and on the basis of the data on the
number of households and of persons in these sample villages, estimate for three
states separately, and also for the three states combined, the total numbers of
households and of persons, and the average household size with standard errors.
Here the states are the strata. The information for the selected sample villages
is given in Table 10.5. As two sample villages are selected from each state, the
simplified procedures of computation of section 9.5 will be used, where the sums
and the differences of the values of the study variables for the two sample units
will provide the required estimates. The required computations are shown in
Tables 10.5-10.7 and the final results in Table 10.8.

Example 10.3

In the Indian National Sample Survey (1958-9), the inquiry into population, births
and deaths in the rural areas was based on a single-stage stratified design. Rural
India was divided into 218 strata (composed of tehsils or groups of tehsils, a
tehsil being a administrative unit consisting of villages and a few towns), each
stratum containing approximately equal populations as in the Census of 1951. A
total period of survey of twelve months was divided into six sub-rounds each of
two months’ duration. A total of 2616 sample villages were covered, with 436
samples villages in each sub-round. In each stratum, two enumerators collected
the information independently, each surveying a sub-sample of six villages, i.e. one
village each in a sub-round. The allocation of the total sample of 2616 villages to
the different States of India was made on the basis of various factors, including the
total 1951 Census population, and the allocations were rounded to multiples of 12.
In each stratum, the sample villages were selected systematically with a random
start after arranging the tehsils in a particular order so as to increase the efficiency
of the estimators. In the selected villages, all the households were surveyed in
regard to demographic characteristics, including births and deaths during the 365
days preceding the enumeration. For any sub-round, the estimating equations will
take the forms in Example 10.2 as there were two sample villages in each stratum
in a sub-round. (For further details, see Murthy (1967), Chapter 15, and Som,
De, Das, Pillai, Mukherjee, and Sarma, 1961).
Some estimates and their standard errors are given in Table 10.9 for the first
sub-round (July-August 1958). The estimated rate of growth of population was
2 per cent per annum in 1958-9. The registration system for births and deaths is
still defective in India, and this was the first national survey which showed that
population in India was growing at a rate much faster than the annual 1.3 per
cent rate recorded during the 1941-1951 census decade, which was used in the
first two five-year plans covering the period 1951-61. This was later confirmed by
the Census of 1961 and the third five-year plan took account of this accelerated
rate of growth of population.
Table 10.5: Population and number of households in each of the two sample villages in the three
states (Appendix IV) and computation of stratum estimates: stratified srs of villages
O
OO
Number of Village Sample Number of households Population
villages serial village
no. no.
State Total Sample : In sample Stratum In sample Stratum
h Nh village estimate village estimate
Xhi = NhXhi y hi Vhi =

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

I 10 2 2 1 18 180 82 820
10 2 22 220 88 880

Total 400 1700

Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 200 (<0) 850 (y;0)
Difference -40 (dlk) -60 (dvh)
j | Difference! (= estimated standard error) 20 (<0)

II 11 2 5 1 20 220 105 1155

11 2 18 198 94 1034

Total 448 91 ÄQ
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 209 (<Q ) 1094.5 (yX0)
Difference 22 (dxk) 121(dyh)
j |Difference! (= estimated standard error) 11 (<o) 60.5 (sy. )
31 hO

III 9 2 2 1 21 189 121 1089

Chapter 10
3 2 18 162 105 945

Total 351 2034

Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 175.5 (<0) 1017 (yJQ)
Difference 27 (dxk) 144 (dyh )
j |Difference| (= estimated standard error) 13.5 (<0)
 Stratified Simple Random Sampling 169

Table 10.6: Computation of estimated total population and number of

households and their standard errors: data of Table 10.5

Number of households Population

State Estimate Standard Variance Estimate Standard Variance

error error
(A) x hO A VhO A
ho Xh0 yÀ0 yho

I 200.0 20.0 400.00 850.0 30.0 900.00

II 209.0 11.0 121.00 1094.5 60.5 3660.25
III 175.5 13.5 182.25 1017.0 72.0 5184.00

All zones
combined 584.5 26.521 703.25 2961.5 98.711 9744.25
(®) W (A (y) A)

t Not additive.

Table 10.7: Computation of the estimated average household size and sam­
pling variance: data of Tables 10.5 and 10.6

State Average 2 2 2r>lsu» x* Sy’ +r2sx

*
hO hO ÿh0 hO ho ho
=
household
size
— 2rhS..
* _• col_(62
(*
) rh = ï yh ¿Xk
yh0 hO *ho
yho/xho

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 4.2500 600.0 7225.0000 5100.0000 3025.0000 0.07562500

II 5.2368 665.5 3318.3161 6970.1808 8.3853 0.00015621
III 5.7949 972.0 6120.1190 11 265.2865 38.8334 0.00126081

All zones 5.0667 2237.5 18053.4120 22 673.4825 5124.1795 0.01499876

combined (r) A) )
(A
* (2rsyx ) («2 + r2s2 x (A
$ J/X )
170 Chapter 10

Table 10.8: Estimates and standard errors, computed from the

data of Table 10.5: stratified srs of villages

State I State II State III All states

combined

1. Total population

(a) Estimate 850.0 1094.5 1017.0 2961.5

(b) Standard error 30.0 60.5 72.0 98.7
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 3.52 5.53 7.08 3.33

2. Total number of households

(a) Estimate 200.0 209.0 175.5 584.5

(b) Standard error 20.0 11.0 13.5 26.5
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 10.00 5.26 7.69 4.54

3. Average household size

(a) Estimate 4.25 5.24 5.79 5.07

(b) Standard error 0.2750 0.0125 0.0355 0.1225
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 6.47 0.24 0.61 2.42

Table 10.9: Estimate and standard error of some demographic parameters:

Indian National Sample Survey, July-August 1958 (404 sample villages with
36,365 households)

Parameter Estimate Standard CV

error W

Birth rate (per 1000 persons) 38.61 0.74 1.92

Death rate (per 1000 persons) 18.97 0.73 3.85
Growth rate (per cent) 1.96 0.08 4.08
Percentage of population employed 45.55 0.71 1.56
Household size 5.06 0.04 0.79

Source: Som et al.

Stratified Simple Random Sampling 171

Note that such a large-scale sample survey (with 2616 sample villages, about
234, 000 sample households and 1.2 million sample persons) used the simple design
described in this chapter, the data of which the reader should by now be able to
analyze by himself.

Example 10.4

For crop surveys starting from 1937 in the Bengal province of pre-independence
India and in the West Bengal State of India since 1948, the design has been
stratified single-stage. The whole area is cadastrally surveyed (i.e. surveyed for
tax purposes) so that village maps are available showing each plot. A number
of sample grids were selected, the size varying in different years. (A “grid” is a
square mesh on a plane formed by two sets of lines perpendicular to each other,
each line of each set being at a constant interval from the adjacent lines.)
With the help of the village maps, the field enumerators identified the indi­
vidual plots wholly or partially included in each grid, indicating against each plot
the fraction of it that was sown with a particular crop. From these data and the
total area of each plot (which was known), the proportion of the total area of the
grid occupied by the crop was calculated. Let this proportion be denoted by phi
(A = 1,2,..., L; » = 1,2,..., nh).
If Ah is the total area of the Ath stratum, an unbiased estimator of the area
under the crop in the stratum, obtained from the Aith sample grid, is

Vhi = AhPh,
and the combined unbiased estimator, obtained from all the nn sample grids in
the stratum is, from equation (10.5b),

Vho = 57 Vhilnh = Ah "^Phi/nh = AhPh

»=i i=i

where ph is the simple (unweighted) average of the phi values in the Ath stratum.
An unbiased variance estimator of is given by equation (10.11).
For the whole universe, an unbiased estimator of the total area under the crop
is
L
y = J7 i/ho
an unbiased variance estimator of which is given by equation (10.16).
In surveys for estimating crop areas, the sampling fraction was generally 1 in
140 to 250, but in estimating crop yields it was necessarily much smaller, about 1
in 6 million - for details, see Mahalanobis, 1944, 1946a, and 1968. (For the crop
surveys recently being conducted in India by the National Sample Survey and the
Indian Council of Agricultural Research, the design is stratified multi-stage).
Some results for the crop survey in the State of West Bengal, India (1962-4)
are given in Table 10.10. The total geographical area of West Bengal is about 20
172 Chapter 10

Table 10.10: Estimated area under Aus Paddy (1962-3); Aman paddy, and
Jute (1963-4): West Bengal

Crop Number of Estimated area

effective
grids of in thousand CV
2.25 acres acres (%)

Aus paddy 52,439 1352 0.94

Aman paddy 54,303 9668 0.32
Jute 52,439 1074 0.94

million acres (1 acre = 0.404 hectare), and square grids of size 2.25 acres each
were the sampling units in each stratum.

10.3 Estimation of proportion of units

For the estimation of the proportion of the universe units that fall into a
certain class or possess a certain attribute, the extension from the case of
unstratified simple random sampling (dealt with in section 2.13) to strati­
fied simple random sampling is straightforward.
Let Nh be the number of units possessing the attribute, and the
total number of units in the hth stratum; a simple random sample of
units from the Nh units show that n'h of the sample of rih units possess the
attribute. We have already seen in section 2.13 that the sample proportion

Ph = Th/rih (10.30)

is an unbiased estimator of the universe proportion

A = N'JNh (10.31)

The sampling variance of the estimator ph is

(10.32)

and an unbiased estimator of this is

Ph(l - Ph)/(nh - 1) (10.33)

Stratified Simple Random Sampling 173

The overall (i.e. for all the strata combined) universe proportion is

p = n'/n^n'»/'L Nh = ^NhP,,/Y,NK (10.34)

and an unbiased sample estimator of P is

P = y\Nhph/N (10.35)

The sampling variance of p is

1 v A\2n(l~n)
(10.36)
№ nh
an unbiased estimator of which is
= XN^rJN2
_ 1 N%Ph(l ~ Ph)
(10.37)
N2 (nh - 1)
Note: p is a weighted average of the phs, the weights being Nh/N. If a constant
sampling fraction is taken in each stratum, i.e. nh/Nh = n/N, then

p = ^^rh/n = r/n (10.38)

where r = is total number of sample units possessing the attribute.

10.4 Ratio method of estimation: Combined and separate ratio esti­

mators

As for unstratified simple random sampling (Chapter 3), so also for strati­
fied simple random sampling, the use of ancillary information may increase
the efficiency of estimators: we shall illustrate the most common use of
ancillary information, namely, the ratio method of estimation.
Following the methods of section 3.2, and using the same types of nota­
tions as for the study variables, the ratio estimator of Y\, the stratum total
of the study variable in the Ath stratum, using the ancillary information,
is, from equation (3.6),

VhR = Zhrlh = Zh(y‘ho/z

* ho)
= Zh(ÿh/zh) (10.39)

where

nh = Pho/z.hO (10.40)
174 Chapter 10

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the variance of y* hR is,

from equation (3.11),

(10.41)
= N%(SSyhi + r2ihSSzhi - 2rihSPyhiZhi}/nh(rih - 1) in srswr
(10.42)

For the ratio estimator of the total of the study variable Y = Y^,
two types of ratio estimators could be used:

1. Separate ratio estimator. Here, the ratio method of estimation is first

applied at the stratum levels to obtain ratio estimators of the stratum
totals y^R (equation (10.39)); these stratum ratio estimators are then
summed up to provide the ratio estimator of the overall total Y; thus
L L
VRS = = 5? ZhUk/th (10.43)

(the additional subscript ‘5” in YRs standing for ‘separate’ ratio esti­
mator).
The variance estimator of YRs is the sum of the estimated vari­
ances of the stratum ratio estimators; thus

(10.44)

s^. being given by equation (10.42).

2. Combined ratio estimator. Here the ratio method of estimation is

applied to the estimators of the overall totals; thus

yRC - Zr - Zy/z (10.45)

(the additional subscript ‘C’ in yRc standing for ‘combined’ ratio

estimator); y and z are the unbiased estimators of the universe totals
Y and Z respectively, defined by equations of the type (10.5(d)), i.e.

L L
z = Y^ZhO = '^2Nhzh (10.46)

and

r = y/z (10.47)
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 175

The variance estimator of ync is (from equation (3.10))

4hc=Z42 = (Sv+^-2^) И048)

where sy:s is the unbiased estimator of the covariance of у and z, given

by an equation of the type (10.19), i.e.
L
SV* ~
L
= 52 NlSPyhizhi/nh{nh - 1) (10.49)

Notes:
1. The combined ratio estimator Yrc does not require a knowledge of the
stratum totals Zh of the ancillary variable, but only of the overall total Z.
2. The separate ratio estimator will be more efficient than the combined ratio
estimator if the sample in each stratum is not too small and the universe
stratum ratio R\h — Yh/Zh vary considerably from stratum to stratum. If
the sample in each stratum is small, the separate ratio estimator will be
subject to a large bias.
3. If stratification is made with respect to an ancillary variable, then the
ratio method of estimation using the same ancillary variable is not likely
to further improve the efficiency of estimators.
4. The ratio method of estimation can be applied at intermediate levels of
aggregation between the individual strata and the overall universe; in the
example given in note 2 of section 9.3, the ratio method could be used not
only at the stratum and country levels, but also at the level of the states.
However, the ratio estimate obtained for the country or for a similar higher
level of aggregation by applying the ratio method of estimation at the lower
levels is likely to contain a bias that may be relatively large in relation to
the standard error.

Example 10.5

For the same data as for Example 10.2, given the additional information on the
previous census population in Table 10.11, obtain ratio estimates of the present
total population and the number of households for the three states separately and
also for all the states combined.
The required computations are given in Tables 10.11-10.13 and the final es­
timates in Table 10.14. First, unbiased stratum estimates of the previous census
population are computed in Table 10.11. For the ratio estimates of the present
total population for the three states separately, we use equation (10.39); for all the
strata combined, the separate ratio estimate is obtained using equation (10.43),
and the combined ratio estimate by using equation (10.45), and the respective
176 Chapter 10

variance estimates by equation (10.44) and (10.48). The required computations

are given in Table 10.12. Similar computations for the ratio estimates of the total
number of households are given in Table 10.13.
Compared with the results of Example 10.2, the ratio estimates are seen to
be more efficient, especially for total population. The combined ratio estimate is
more efficient than the separate ratio estimate for estimating the population.

Example 10.6

For the Demographic Sample Survey in Chad (1964), the universe of population
(excluding nomads) was divided into nine strata - one for the urban areas and
eight for rural areas, where the stratification criterion was chosen on the basis
of the most dominant ethnic group. In each rural stratum, the sub-universe was
classified according to the administrative division (Préfectures, Sous-préfectures
and Cantons) and the size of the village. The rural strata were composed of
a number of Sous-préfectures. Each rural stratum was divided into three sub­
strata according to the size of the village: (a) with up to 100 persons, (b) with
200 to 499 persons, and (c) with 500 or more persons, according to the previous
administrative census. Primary units were constructed in sub-stratum (a) by
grouping small villages, in (b) by considering the villages as the primary units,
and in (c) by grouping the localities of a village so that they contain an average
of 300 persons: a systematic sample of 1 in 20 primary units was chosen for the
survey, and the population, and births and deaths during the preceding 365 days
recorded. The relatively large sampling fraction was chosen in order to provide
reliable estimates at the stratum level.
Note: Sampling in rural sub-stratum (c) was stratified two-stage, to be considered
in Part IV.
The sample comprised 101 thousand persons in the rural areas and 11 thou­
sand persons in the urban: the overall sampling fraction was 5 per cent. Using
the previous administrative census data, the ratio estimates of population were
2365±87.1 thousand in the rural section and 2530±91.1 thousand in the country.
On the basis of these results, the 95 per cent limits were placed at 2268 and 2444
thousand for the rural population and 2439 and 2629 thousand for the total pop­
ulation of the country (excluding nomads). (For further details, see the report by
Behmoiras).

10.5 Ratio of ratio estimators of totals of two study variables

Ratio estimators of totals of two study variables may be used in estimating

their ratio. However, it becomes the same as the ratio of the corresponding
unbiased estimators of totals if computed at the stratum level, or for all
the strata combined if the combined ratio estimator is used (see section 3.2,
note 5).
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 177

Table 10.11: Previous census population in each of the two sample villages,
selected in Example 10.2 in each of the three states and computation of
stratum estimates: Stratified srs of villages

State Number of villages Village Sample Previous census population

Serial village
Total Sample no. no. In sample Stratum
village estimate
h Nh i Z hi 2 hi — NhZfii

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 10 2 2 1 81 810
10 2 80 800

Total 1610
Mean ( = stratum estimate of total) * Q)
805 (z
io (¿A)
Difference
2 |Difference| (= estimated standard error)

II 11 2 5 1 98 1078
11 2 86 946

Total 2024
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 1012 (z
* 0)
Difference 132 (dzh)
i |Difference| (= estimated standard error) 66 (s2* )

III 9 2 2 1 112 1008

3 2 97 873

Total 1881
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 940.5 (z
* 0)
Difference 135 (d2h)
|Difference| (= estimated standard error) 67.5 (s2. )
' ho'
178 Chapter 10

Table 10.12: Computation of ratio estimates of population and their vari­

ances, using the previous census population: data of Tables 10.5-10.7 and
10.11

State zh Tlh = yhR ~ z*

yH0 HO
— s2. =
yhR
*SvyhR
(M Zhrlh | dyhd2h s2, + r2hs2.
yh0 lh Zh0
— ^T\hsM
*’AO z'ho

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 863 1.0559 911.24 -150 1244.6431 35.28

II 1010 1.0815 1092.34 3993 116.8691 10.81
III 942 1.0813 1018.62 4860 0.5988 0.77

Total 2815 3022.20 1362.1110 36.91

(y Rs) (»kJ (S!/HS )

Combined 2815 1.0734 3023.25 8703 725.5130 26.98

(Z) (t-1) (vrc = (sy
)
* (4c = (sy/?c)
Zn) 4 +r2S2
— 2rj Syz)

Table 10.13: Computation of ratio estimates of number of households and

their variances, using the previous census population: data of Tables 10.5-
10.7 and 10.11-10.12

State zh r2h = xhR = ST* .• =

hO hO
s2„
XhR
=
S<R
,2
(M xho/zho Zh'T2h 4 rfjh^zh *z hn 4-
+r T22hSs2z* kn
~^r2hsx* HO z*HO

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 863 0.24845 214.41 -100.00 426.3882 20.65

II 1010 0.20652 208.59 726.00 6.9157 2.63
III 942 0.18660 175.78 911.25 0.8128 0.90

Total 2815 598.78 437.1167 20.84

(SXRS )

Combined 2815 0.21179 596.18 1537.25 452.9819 21.28

(Z) (r2) C>RC = (sxz) = (SlRC )
Zr2) 4 + r2s2
—2r2sXz)
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 179

Table 10.14: Ratio estimates of population and number of households, using

the previous census population, computed from the data of Tables 10.5 and
10.11: stratified srs of villages

Ratio estimates of Ratio estimates of number of

population households

State Estimated Standard CV Estimated Standard CV

number error (%) number error (%)

I 911.2 35.28 3.89 214.4 20.65 9.63

II 1092.3 10.81 0.99 208.6 2.64 1.26
III 1018.6 0.77 0.076 175.8 0.90 0.51

All states:
Separate ratio
estimate 3022.2 36.91 1.22 598.8 20.84 3.48
Combined ratio
estimate 3023.2 26.98 0.89 596.2 21.28 3.57

If separate ratio estimators are used for the totals of two study variables,
namely
L L L
VRS - 5? y*hR - Y? ZhT-Lh - Zhyh/zh (10.43)

L L L
XRS = y^ X*hR = F ZhT2h = F ZhXhlZh (10.50)

as respective estimators of the universe totals Y and X, then an estimator

of the universe ratio
' R=Y/X (10.7.c)
is
L , L
r' = Vrs/xrs = *
h R
^2y / ^X
* hR

— '^Zhrih / T^Zhrzh = y^Zhyh / T^ZhXh (10.51)

A variance estimator of r' is

sr> = + r'2s1nS ~ 2r'syRsXRSy^RS (10.52)
180 Chapter 10

where SyRtl and slRt, are given by estimating equations of the type (10.44),
and the estimated covariance is
L
SyRSZRS (10.53)
where

*
*hi
(y - rih^t)(r^. - r2hz'hi)
hH XKR (10.54)
Tlh(nh - 1)

For an example, see exercise 3 of this chapter.

10.6 Gain due to stratification

From the data of a stratified sample, it is possible to examine the gain, if

any, due to stratification leading to a reduction in the variance of a sample
estimator, as compared with an unstratified simple random sample. We
will consider in the next section the question of estimating from the data
of an unstratified srs, the gain had stratification been adopted.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of estimated total of the study
variable y, obtained from a stratified simple random sample, is
L
(10.16)
rth(nh - 1)
and an unbiased estimator of the variance of the estimator of the total, had
the data come from an unstratified simple random sample, is

(10.55)
n

Example 10.7

For the data of Example 10.2, estimate the gain in the efficiency of the sample
estimate of the total population due to stratification, as compared to that for an
unstratified srs.
The required computations are given in Table 10.15. The value of the expres­
sion (10.55) is
(30 x 297, 072.5 - 2, 961.52 + 9, 744.25)/6 = 25, 239.5
The efficiency of the estimate from the stratified sample as compared with
that from the unstratified is thus
25, 239.5/9, 744.25 = 2.59 or 259%
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 181

Table 10.15: Computation of the gain due to stratification: Data of Exam­

ple 10.2

Stratum E?=i y2hJnh Nh E?=i y2

h,/nh

I 14 468 7234.0 72 340.0

II 19 861 9930.5 109 235.5
III 25 666 12 833.0 115497.0

Total 297072.5 (£f Nh^nh y2hJnh)

10.7 Stratification after sampling

For a stratified simple random sample, information on the total number

and the listing of the units in each stratum for the “stratification variable”
is required prior to sample selection. Such information on the desirable
variables suitable for stratification, such as sex, age, tribe etc. in a demo­
graphic survey, is often not available prior to sampling; it is collected for
the selected sample units only in the course of the actual enumeration.
In such a situation, under suitable conditions, the sample data from
an unstratified simple random sample may be classified into a number of
strata (say L) and analyzed in the same manner as a stratified simple
random sample. Two cases may arise:

1. The total number of units in stratum h, Nh is known. The sam­

ple data (obtained from an unstratified simple random sample) are
classified into L strata (post-strata.)-, let the number of sample units
falling in the hth post-stratum and the mean of the values of the
study variable there be denoted respectively by rih and yh. Then for
the estimator of the universe total Y, the same estimating equation
(10.5(d)) for a stratified simple random sample is used, namely
L
y (10.56)

and the variance estimator of y is given by equation (10.16). For an

example, see exercise 4 of this chapter.

2. The total number of units in the post-stratum h, namely Nh, is not

known, but the proportion is assumed to be known; e.g. if age is the
182 Chapter 10

desirable stratification variable, the age structure of the population

can be assumed to be effectively the same as in the last population
inquiry. The estimator y of equation (10.56) can be written in the
form
L L
y = Y.Nhÿh = NY,(Nl,IN)ÿh
L
= N^P’hyh (10.57)

where

Pi = (Nh/N) (10.58)

are the “weights”, i.e. the proportions of the total number of units in
the different post-strata, the values of being known or taken from
previous inquiries. This is a biased estimator.
A variance estimator of y is

ss2 = №£A24„ (10.59)

si , the variance estimator of the sample mean in the /ith post­

stratum, being given, as usual, by

siR = SSyhi/rihtnh - 1) (10.60)

The estimator of the universe mean is obtained, as usual, on dividing

N into the estimator of the universe total, and so also for its estimated
standard error.

Notes
1. If the sample is reasonably large, say over twenty in each stratum, and the
errors in the weights negligible, the method of post-stratification can give
results almost as efficient as proportional stratified sampling (see Chapter
12). This is also obvious from the fact that for large samples, the sample
units are likely to be distributed in proportion to Nh-
2. The method can also be used when the sample is already stratified according
to some variable other than that desired for the study in hand.
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 183

Further reading

Cochran, sections 5.1-5.4, 5.6, 5.10, 5A.8, 6.10-6.12; Hansen et al. (1953), vol. I,
chapters 5A, 5B, and 5D, and vol. II, sections 5.1-5.3, 5.5, 5.6, 5.12, and 5.13;
Hedayat and Sinha, chapter 9; Murthy (1967), sections 7.1-7.3, 7.5-7.7, 7.14, and
10.6; Sukhatme et al. (1984), sections 4.1-4.3, 4.5, and 4.6; Yates, sections 3.3-
3.5, 6.5-6.7, 6.10, 6.11, 6.13, 6.14, 7.6, 7.6.1, 7.6.2, 7.9-7.10, 7.13, 8.3-8.5, 8.5.1,
and 8.5.2.

Exercises

1. In a sample survey designed to estimate the total number of cattle, the

universe of 2,072 farms was stratified into 5 strata on the basis of the total
acreage of the farms. In the /ith stratum (h = 1,2,.. ., 5), a simple random
sample (with replacement) of farms (of size nn) was taken in proportion
to the total number of farms in the stratum (Ah), the total sample size
being n = n/i = 500; for each stratum, the total number of cattle in the
sample farms (^2?=i !0>«) an<^ the raw sum °f s9uares are S’ven
in Table 10.16; yhi denotes the number of cattle in the ith sample farm
i = 1, 2,..., n/i). Estimate the total and the average number of cattle per
farm, along with their standard errors (United Nations Manual, Process 4,
Example 4b, modified to “with replacement” sampling).
2. For a socio-economic inquiry, the 23,671 villages in an area, including the
uninhabited ones, were grouped into 4 strata on the basis of their altitude
above sea-level and population density, and from each stratum a simple
random sample of 10 villages was taken with replacement. The data on
the number of households in each of the sample villages are given in Table
10.17.
(a) Estimate the total number of households with its CV\
(b) Examine whether there has been any gain due to stratification as
compared to unstratified simple random sample with replacement
(Murthy (1967), Problem 7.1).

3. For the data of Example 10.5, estimate the average household size from
the separate ratio estimates of numbers of persons and households, and its
standard error.
4. A simple random sample of 125 farms out of a total of 2496 farms in
Hertfordshire, 1939, gave the data on (a) total acreage and (b) acreage of
wheat, classified by districts after selection (Table 10.18). Estimate the
total area of wheat and the number of farms growing wheat (i) directly
from the sample, and (ii) by stratification by size, given the total number
of farms in the specific size-groups in col. 2 in Table 10.2 to the answer
(Yates, Examples 6.6 and 7.6.b, modified to “with replacement” sampling).
184 Chapter 10

5. In the Micro-Census Sample Survey of the Federal Republic of Germany,

conducted on a continuing basis from October 1957, the sample design for
the annual survey has been stratified single-stage since October 1962. In
each stratum, formed according to the size of the communities, a one per
cent systematic sample of area units (enumeration districts) is selected,
and all dwellings, households, families, and persons in the sample areas are
enumerated.

(a) The Federal Statistical Office uses the following estimators: the un­
biased estimator of Y is y = 1005^^ nhyh> and the unbiased variance
estimator of y is 0.99 x 104 nhSSyht/(nh — 1). Verify these, not­
ing that the finite multiplier is not ignored for the variance estimator
(Herberger, 1971).
(b) Also verify that

s2 = 0.99^ —(SSyhi + r2SSiht

nh - 1
h

—2r SPyhiTht

(Hint: (a) Use respectively equations (10.5.d) and (10.24), noting that
fh = nh/Nh =0.01.)

6. To estimate the number of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome)

admissions in 24 counties that are not metropolitan areas in a large state
in the U.S., the 24 counties were grouped into 6 strata, with 4 counties
each, and a sample of two counties was selected out of the total number
of counties in each stratum and in each selected county, one hospital was
taken, sampling being simple random without replacement. Table 10.19
gives the data on the number of hospital beds and the number of AIDS
admissions in each sample hospital.

(a) Estimate the total number and proportion of AIDS admissions for the
34 county area;
(b) How would you estimate the number of AIDS admissions by utilizing
the data on the total number of hospital beds for all the hospitals in
each stratum (given also in the bottom half of Table 10.19) (Levy and
Lemeshow, Exercise 12.2, adapted)?
Stratified Simple Random Sampling 185

Table 10.16: Total number of cattle in the srs of farms and the raw sum of
square in different strata

Stratum No. of farms No. of farms

(acres) in stratum (Nh) sampled (n^) Li=i yhi

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

0-15 635 153 619 5579

16-30 570 138 1423 24 253
31-50 475 115 1758 34 082
51-75 303 73 1691 51 419
76-100 89 21 603 18 305

All strata 2072 (N) 500 6094 133 658

Source: United Nations Manual, Process 4, Example 4b (adapted).

Table 10.17: Number of households in the srs of 10 villages in the different

strata

Stratum Total Total number of households in sample villages

number of
villages 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

I 1411 43 84 98 0 10 44 0 124 13 0
II 4705 50 147 62 87 84 158 170 104 56 160
III 2558 228 262 110 232 139 178 334 0 63 220
IV 14 997 17 34 25 34 36 0 25 7 15 31

Source: Murthy (1967), Problem 7.1.

186 Chapter 10

Table 10.18: Total acreage (a) and acreage in wheat (b) in the srs of farms
in Hertfordshire, U.K., 1939

District 1 (a) 188 60 192 48 44 79 14 465 197 163 198

(15 farms) 78 6 35 168 (1935)
(b) 16 0 0 0 0 33 0 92 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 (141)

District 2 (a) 8 294 597 8 2 200 14 262 (1385)

(8 farms) (b) 0 29 107 0 0 65 0 58 (259)

District 3 (a) 370 26 369 212 153 287 28 14 4 17 2

(40 farms) 3 7 6 335 4 1 4 180 120 40 28
221 31 6 34 316 116 4 409 6 115 19
274 3 144 3 482 156 302 (4851)
(b) 67 0 58 45 20 44 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 82 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
59 0 0 0 75 33 0 102 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 62 28 71 (763)

District 4 (a) 11 6 543 822 654 3 158 4 68 55 4

(24 farms) 2 192 4 491 224 280 90 3 3 6 4
161 246 (4034)
(b) 0 0 80 265 112 0 50 0 27 12 0
0 24 0 24 28 75 0 0 0 0 0
80 60 (837)

District 5 (a) 4 312 8 11 (335)

(4 farms) (b) 0 102 0 0 (102)

District 6 (a) 8 87 6 44 4 614 192 10 24 2 9

(24 farms) (b) 3 2 120 58 20 30 197 14 32 2 285
138 126 (2027)
(b) 0 14 0 0 0 72 20 0 0 0 0
0 0 24 0 0 0 6 3 6 0 29
0 0 (174)

District 7 (a) 128 4 46 181 17 24 10 36 12 89 (547)

(10 farms) (b) 5 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 (25)

Grand 125 farms

total: (a) 15,114
(b) 2301

Source: Yates, Examples 6.6 and 7.6.b (adapted).

Stratified Simple Random Sampling 187

Table 10.19: Number of beds and AIDS admissions in hospitals in an AIDS

Admission Survey

Stratum Sample County Sample Hospital

Total Beds AIDS

1 1 72 20
2 87 49
2 1 99 38
2 48 23
3 1 99 38
2 131 78
4 1 42 7
2 38 28
5 1 42 26
2 34 9
6 1 30 18
2 76 20

Stratum Number of counties Number of

Hospitals Beds

1 4 11 588
2 4 9 421
3 4 8 776
4 4 6 196
5 4 4 175
6 4 8 375

Source: Levy and Lemeshow (1991), Exercise 12.2 (adapted).

CHAPTER 11

Stratified Varying Probability

Sampling

11.1 Introduction

As for simple random sampling, so also for varying probability sampling,

the extension from unstratified to stratified sampling is straightforward and
follows directly from the fundamental theorems of Chapter 9. The use of
different schemes of selection - srs, pps etc. - in the different strata, the
special cases of crop surveys, the ratio method of estimation, and the gain
due to stratification will also be considered in the chapter.

11.2 Estimation of totals, mean, ratios and their variances

11.2.1 Structure of a stratified varying probability sampling

Consider the total universe to be divided, on certain criteria, into L strata,

and let the Zith stratum (A = 1,2,... ,L) contain a total of N\ units. The
values of the two study variables for the zth unit (z = 1,2,..., Nh) in the
Ath stratum will be denoted, as in section 10.2, respectively by Yhi and
Xhi. The total number of units in the universe is, as before,

L
N = ^Nk (11.1)
/1=1

In the /zth stratum, a sample of rih units is selected (with replacement)

with varying probabilities, the probability of selection of the zth unit (z =
1,2,... , Nh) being it hi- Let the values of the two study variables for the zth
selected sample unit (z — l,2,...,nh) be denoted respectively by yhi and

189
190 Chapter 11

Xhi- The total number of sample units is

L
n— nh (11.2)
h=l

11.2.2 Estimators of totals, means, and ratio of two totals

An unbiased estimator of the stratum total , obtained from the ith sample
unit in the /ith stratum is, from equation (5.2),
y*hi = yhi/^hi (1T3)
and the combined unbiased estimator of Yh, obtained from the sample
units in the /ith stratum, is, from equation (5.3) or (9.1),
yho = ^yhi/nh (H.4)
i=l

Thus, if the sample units are selected with probability proportional to

size zhi, i.e. irhi = zhi/Zh, where Zh = zhi, then
y*hi = yhi/^hi = Zh yhi/zhi (11.5)
Some universe parameters and their sample estimator are defined in
Table 11.1. These follow from the results of section 5.3 for any stratum and
section 9.3 for all strata combined.

Table 11.1: Some universe parameters and their sample estimators for a
stratified varying probability sample

For the /ith stratum For all strata combined

Universe Sample Universe Sample

parameter estimator parameter estimator

(a) (b) (c) (d)

For a study
variable: Yh = y*ho = Y =
Total yhJn* Z2h=l yh0 (11-6)

Mean Yh = *hy o =
Yh/Nh yho/Nh Y = Y/N y/N (H.7)

For two study

variables: Rh = rh =
Ratio of totals Yh/Xh yho/XhO R = Y/X r = y/x (11.8)
Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 191

11.2.3 Sampling variances and their estimators for a stratum

The sampling variance of the sample estimator y^Q of the stratum total Yh
in ppswr is, from equation (5.4),

(11.9)

an unbiased estimator of which is (from equation (5.5) or (9.2))

svl0 = * hi/nh(nh - 1)
~ y'hofMrih - 1) = SSy (11.10)
1= 1

The sampling variance of the sample estimator of the hth stratum mean
is
(11.11)

which is estimated unbiasedly from equation (5.7) by

(1112)
An unbiased estimator of the covariance of y^Q and x* hQ (z£0 being de­
fined similarly for another study variable) is, from equation (5.8) or (9.10),

SVh0xh0 = ^(yhi-yho^hi-^/^nh-l)

= SPyLxhi/nh(nh- 1)
An estimator of the variance of rh is, from equation (5.10) or (9.14),
< = (s?;o +
= (SSy‘hi + r2
hSSy’hi - ’¿rhSPy‘hix‘hi)/nh(nh - l)x’h20 (11.13)

11.2.4 Sampling variances and their estimators for all strata combined
The sampling variance of the estimator y of the universe total Y is
L
(11.14)

which is estimated by the sum of the unbiased variance estimators of y^0

from equation (9.6), by
L
(11.15)
192 Chapter 11

The sampling variance of the estimator of the universe mean is

<t2/N2 (11.16)

which is estimated unbiasedly by

s2/N2 (11.17)

An unbiased estimator of the covariance of the estimators y and x is,

from equation (9.12),
L
syx = 'nsyhoxlo (11.18)

A variance estimator of r is (from equation (9.16))

s2 = (s2+r2s2-2rssJ/x2 (11.19)

For the notes relating to the estimation of ratios, see the notes to section
2.7.

Example 11.1

From each of the three states (Appendix IV), select with probability proportional
to the previous census population and with replacement a sample of two villages
each, and on the basis of the data on the current number of households and of
persons in these sample villages, estimate for the three states separately and also
for the three states combined, the total numbers of households and of persons
and average household size, with standard errors.
Here the states are the strata. The sample villages are selected with proba­
bility proportional to the previous census population by adopting the procedure
of cumulation of the previous census population in each state (section 5.4). The
information on the selected sample villages is given in Table 11.2; the Zh val­
ues (the total previous census population in the states) are 863, 1010, and 942
respectively. As two sample villages are selected from each state, the simplified
procedure of section 9.5 for estimation will be followed, as was done in Example
10.2 relating to a stratified srs. The required computations are shown in Tables
11.2-11.4 and the final results in Table 11.5.

Example 11.2

For the Indian National Sample Survey (1957-8) in the rural section, the total
number of 2522 tehsils were grouped into a number of geographical strata. In
each stratum, two villages were selected from the total number of villages with
probability proportional to the 1951 Census population; in the sample villages
 Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 193

Table 11.2: Population and number of households in each of the two sample
villages selected with probability proportional to previous census popula­
tion in each of the three states (Appendix IV): Stratified pps sample of
villages

State Sample Village Size Recip­ Number of households Population

village serial (previous rocal
no. census of In Stratum In Stratum
popula­ proba­ sample estimate sample estimate
tion) bility
l/^ht =
h i Zht Zh/¿hi xh. XKx - Vh. -
yh./^hx
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

I 1 5 92 9.3804 24 225.1296 112 1050.6048

2 7 72 11.9861 20 239.7220 88 1054.7768

Total 464.8516 2105.3816

Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 232.45 1052.6908
(TAo) (^o)
Difference -14.59 -4.1720
(dxh) (dyh )
1
7 |Difference| (= estimated standard error) 7.295 2.0860
Ox« ) (*
y- )
hO yh0

II 1 3 73 13.8356 17 235.2052 80 1106.8480

2 7 85 11.8824 19 225.7656 95 1128.8280

Total 460.9708 2235.6760

Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 230.49 1117.8380
(<o) (^0)
Difference 9.44 — 21.9800
(dxh) (dyh)
1 4.72
I |Difference| (= estimated standard error) 10.9900
(Äx* hO ) )

III 1 2 112 8.4107 21 176.6247 121 1017.6947

2 4 117 8.0513 21 169.0773 129 1038.6177

Total 345.7020 2056.3124

Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 172.85 1028.1562
(<o) (Vko)
Difference 7.55 — 20.9230
(dih ) (dyh)
¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 3.775 10.4614
Ox’hO ) )
194 Chapter 11

Table 11.3: Computation of the estimated total population and number of

households and their standard errors: data of Table 11.2

Number of households Population

State Estimate Standard Variance Estimate Standard Variance
error error
h Xh0 sx
*
ho
y*ho * yhQ
Sy s2.
yho
ho

I 232.43 7.295 53.2170 1052.69 2.086 4.3514

II 230.49 4.720 22.2784 1117.84 10.990 120.7801
III 172.85 3.775 14.2506 1028.16 10.462 109.4534

All states 635.77 *

9.473 89.7460 3198.69 15.316
* 234.5849
combined (r) (s^) W) )
(* (si) W)

* Not additive

Table 11.4: Computation of the estimated average household size and sam­
pling variance: data of Tables 11.2 and 11.3

S2. + r2 S2 . S2 -
State Average Sy
* *
X —
fh -
sh0 HO «ho h xho
household size 4 dyftdxh ~2rhsy
* ox* o col.(4)/x
* 2
h Th ~ yho/XhO

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

I 4.5291 15.0861 959.3228 0.0177574

II 4.8499 -51.8728 1147.9573 0.0216084
III 5.9482 -39.4918 1083.4655 0.0362654

All states 5.0312 -76.2785 3273.8702 0.00809956

(r = y/z) (S2 4- r2s2x- (5r)
combined (sÿx)
Syx )
Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 195

Table 11.5: Estimates and standard errors computed from the data
of Table 11.2: Stratified pps sample of villages

Item State I State II State III All states

combined

1. Total population
(a) Estimate 1052.7 1117.8 1028.2 3198.7
(b) Standard error 2.09 10.99 10.46 15.32
(c) Coefficients of variation (%) 0.20 0.98 1.02 0.48

2. Total number of households

(a) Estimate 232.4 230.5 172.8 635.8
(b) Standard error 7.30 4.72 3.78 9.47
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 3.14 2.05 2.18 1.49

3. Average household size

(a) Estimate 4.53 4.85 5.95 5.03
(b) Standard error 0.1333 0.1470 0.1904 0.0900
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 2.95 3.04 3.20 1.79

thus selected, the existing households were listed for the purpose of sub-sampling
of households for socio-economic inquiries, the sampling design for which was thus
stratified two-stage (see section 1.9 and Chapter 14). However, at the time the
list of households in the sample villages was constructed, information on the total
number of births during the preceding 365 days in the premises occupied by the
households was collected, along with the household size from all the households.
The sample design for this inquiry on births was thus stratified single-stage pps.
The estimating equations for the total population, births and the birth rate and
their estimated variances will thus take the forms given in section 11.2.
Estimates of the birth rates and estimated standard errors for rural India as
a whole as also for the five zones are given in Table 11.6. The zones comprised
one or more states, each state containing several strata: for the zonal estimates,
the same types of formulae as for the overall estimates for the country as a whole
were used, excepting that only those strata constituting a zone were considered
(for further details, see Som et al., 1961). There were 924 villages, over 135,000
households, and over 680,000 persons in the sample.
By definition, births occurring in hospitals and other institutions were not
recorded, nor, for households occupying the premises for less than a year, the
births occurring in the previous residence. Even with the limited definition, it
appears likely that a number of births were not reported because of the lack of
emphasis and of probes and other associate items and of cross-checks on this
item in the “listing schedule”. The methods of obtaining adjusted estimates from
demographic data are described briefly in section 25.6.
196 Chapter 11

Table 11.6: Estimated birth rate (per 1000 persons): Indian National Sam­
ple Survey, rural sector, 1957-8

Zone Estimate Standard CV

error (%)

North 37.08 0.86 2.32

Central 42.36 0.89 2.10
East 32.96 1.25 3.79
South 28.07 0.75 2.67
West 32.81 0.52 2.80

India (rural) 35.16 0.45 1.28

Source: Som et al. (1961).

11.3 Different schemes of selection in different strata

As mentioned in section 9.2, it is possible to adopt different sampling

schemes - srs, pps, or systematic - in different strata. The fundamen­
tal theorems of section 9.3 permit the estimation of the total of a study
variable and its variance for all the strata combined by adding up the cor­
responding unbiased stratum estimators. The ratio of the totals of two
study variables and its variance can also be estimated, as also can other re­
lated measures such as the correlation coefficient, from the results of section
9.3. The procedure will be illustrated with an example.

Example 11.3

The universe of 112 villages was divided into three strata with 51, 37, and 24
villages respectively. From the first stratum, a simple random sample of 6 villages
was selected without replacement, from the second stratum a sample of 5 villages
with probability proportional to the cultivated area (the total cultivated area in
the stratum was 26,912 acres) and with replacement, and from the third stratum
two linear systematic samples of 4 villages each. For each selected sample village,
the total area under wheat was observed: this information is given in Table 11.7,
along with the total areas of the sample villages of stratum II. Estimate the total
area under wheat in each stratum separately and also for all strata combined,
along with the standard errors (Murthy (1967), Problem 7.3, adapted).
Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 197

Table 11.7: Area under wheat (г/д,) for all the sample villages and cultivated
area (х/й) for the sample villages of stratum II

Sample Stratum (Л)

village
Stratum I Stratum II Stratum III
1 У1. X2i У21 Уз. Уз'.

1 75 729 247 427 335

2 101 617 238 326 412
3 5 870 359 481 503
4 78 305 129 445 348
5 78 569 223
6 45

Source: Murthy (1967), Problem 7.3 (adapted).

For stratum I, the methods of Example 2.1 are followed. The estimated area
under wheat is 3247 acres with estimated variance 435,540 (acres)2.
For stratum II, we follow the methods of section 11.2. From equations (11.5b)
and (11.10), the estimated area under wheat is 10,507 acres with estimated vari­
ance 153,506 (acres)2.
For stratum III, the methods of Example 4.1 are followed. The estimated
area under wheat is 9831 acres with variance 59,049 (acres)2.
The estimated total area under wheat in the three strata separately and com­
bined are shown in Table 11.8, along with their estimated variance, standard
errors, and coefficients of variation.

11.4 Special cases of crop surveys

11.4.1 Introduction

As for unstratified pps sampling (section 5.5), so also for stratified sampling,
the sampling of fields (or farms or plots) with probability proportional to
total (geographical) area (ppa) simplifies the estimating procedures, in ad­
dition to possibly improving the efficiency of the estimators.
198 Chapter 11

Table 11.8: Estimated wheat acreage, obtained from the data of Table 11.7

Area under wheat Stratum I Stratum II Stratum III All strata

combined

1. Estimate (acres) 3247 10,507 9831 23,585

2. Estimated variance
(acre)2 435,540 153,506 59,049 648,095
3. Estimated standard
error (acres)
[square root of row (2)] 660 392 243 843
4. Estimated CV =
row (3)/row(l) 20.3(%) 3.7(%) 2.5(%) 3.4(%)

11.4.2 Area survey of crops

The results for any stratum follow from those in section 5.5.2. If in the /ith
stratum, rih fields are selected with ppa

/
TThi ~ ^hi / O-hi — ^fa/Ah
' i=l

where is the area of the ¿th field (z — 1,2,... ,Nh for the universe, and
i = 1,2,..., rih for the sample) and a^i = Ah, the total area of all
the Nh fields in the stratum, and if for the ¿th sample field, yhi denotes
the area under a particular crop, then an unbiased estimator of the average
proportion under the crop in the stratum is, from equation (5.13),
JU
Ph = Ylph^nh (11.20)
t=i

i.e. the simple (unweighted) average of the sample proportions phi =

Phi Iahi in the sample fields, with an unbiased variance estimator (from
equation (5.14)) of

s|h = SSphi/nh(nh - 1) (11.21)

An unbiased estimator of the total area under the crop in the hth stra­
tum is, from equation (5.11),

y*ho = Ahph (11.22)

Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 199

with an unbiased variance estimator (from equation (5.12))

For all the strata combined, the unbiased estimator of the total area
under the crop Y is, from equation (11.6.d),
L L

y = 12 yho = 52 Ahyh (11.24)

with an unbiased variance estimator (from equation (11.15))

L L
(11.25)

An estimator of the average proportion under the crop in the universe

is
L
P = y/A = ^AhPh/A (11.26)

where A = is the total area of all the strata, and an unbiased

variance estimator of p is

4=ss7X2 (11.27)
Note: If the crop is such that it either occupies the whole of a field or no part of it,
or if the fields are small enough for this assumption to hold, i.e. the proportion
of the total area under the crop ph, is either 1 (whole) or 0 (none), then the
estimator of the variance of the total area under the crop in equation (11.25)
reduces to
L
s2y = ^A2hph(l-ph)/(nh-l) (11.28)

(see note to section 5.5.2).

11.4.3 Yield surveys of crops

Similar considerations apply for estimating the average yield of a crop per
unit of area. The results for any stratum follow from those in section 5.5.3.
If r/jj = Xhi/yhi is the yield per unit area in the ¿th sample field (obtained
on harvesting the crop and measuring the yield X/,,) in the hth stratum,
then an unbiased estimator of the average yield per unit area is
Tlh
rh = y^rhi/nh (11.29)
i=l
200 Chapter 11

with an unbiased variance estimator

4h = SSrhi/nh(nh - 1) (11.30)
An unbiased estimator of the total yield in the hth stratum is
xh0 = Ahrh (11.31)
with an unbiased variance estimator
sx2.ho = A№
n rh
(11.32)
For all the strata combined, the unbiased estimator of the total yield is
L

X= (11.33)
with an unbiased variance estimator
4 = ¿4-
r Z_-< rhO (11.34)
An unbiased estimator of the average yield per unit area in the universe
is
r — x/A (11.35)
with an unbiased variance estimator
s? = s2/A2 (11.36)
A generally unbiased but consistent estimator of the average yield per
unit of crop area in the hth stratum is
rh = xho/yho = rh/ph (11.37)
with a variance estimator

s\ = (sL + r^ska-‘2r'i‘s^-J/vM i1138'

where
h[SPphirhilnh{nh - 1)]
s!/;ox’o = A2 (11.39)
For all the strata combined, a generally biased but consistent estimator
of the average yield per unit of crop area is
r — x/y (11.40)
with a variance estimator
= + (11.41)
where syx is an unbiased estimator of the covariance of y and x, given by
equation (11.18).
Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 201

11.5 Ratio method of estimation: Combined and separate ratio esti­

mators

As for unstratified pps sampling (section 5.6), so also for stratified pps sam­
pling the ratio method of estimation may be used to improve the efficiency
of estimators; and as for stratified srs (section 10.4) for the whole universe,
“combined” and “separate” ratio estimators may be used.
If w is the ancillary variable used for the ratio estimation, then an
unbiased estimator of the universe total Wh in the hth stratum from a pps
(the “size” variable being z) sample of units is, from equation (11.6.b),
nh nh
who = ^whi/nh = ^2whi/^hinh)
i=l i=l

= Zh^whi/{zhinh} (11.42)
i=l

where Zh = ¿hi, the total of the values of the size variable in the hth
stratum.
The ratio estimator of the total Yh in the stratum is (from equation
(5.27))

y^R = Ww'm/w'm = Wkrlh (11.43)

where
Nh
Wh = and rlh = yho/Who (11.44)
¿=1

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the variance of y^R is

(from equation (5.29))

(11.45)

where

^;0 = SSy^hi/nh(nh-l)
¿•o = *
SSw hi/nh(nh - 1)
= SPy^/nh^h-l) (11.46)

For the ratio estimator of the total of the study variable Y = Yh,
two types of ratio estimators could be used.
202 Chapter 11

1. Separate ratio estimator. This is obtained by summing up the stratum

ratio estimators, namely
L
yRS = ^yhR (1147)

the variance estimator of yRs being provided by summing the stratum

variance estimators, namely
L

2. Combined ratio estimator. This is obtained by applying the ratio

method of estimation at the overall level, namely,

yRC = Wr = Wy/w (11.49)

where y and w are the unbiased estimators of the universe totals Y

and W respectively, defined by equations of the type (11.6.d), namely,
L
w = ^2who

w^q being given by equation (11.6.b), or more specifically by equation

(11.42) and

r = y/w (11.50)

The variance estimator of yRc is (from equation (5.29))

SVRC = W2s? ~ sy + - 2rsj/w (11.51)

where
L

h=l
L I" nh
13 S Vhiwhi~ (11.52)
h=l

Note: For the ratio method of estimation to be efficient, the probability of se­
lection should be appropriate for both y and w. See also the notes in section
10.4.
Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 203

11.6 Ratio of ratio estimators of totals of two study variables

For two or more study variables, the ratio method of estimation may be
applied, using the same ancillary variable. However, in computing the ratio
of the totals of two study variables, the ratio method is equivalent to using
the unbiased estimators of the totals for the stratum levels, as also for all
the strata combined if combined ratio estimators for totals are used.
If separate ratio estimators are used for the totals of the two study
variables, namely

L L L
VRS = ^AR = '^Wl>y-M/w'h0 = '^W^ (n-47)

L L L
ZRS = = £ M.«, = 12 (11.53)

are respective estimators of the universe total Y and X, where xrs is

defined as for y^s and

r2h = 4oMo (11.54)

An estimator of the universe ratio R = Y/X is

r, _ Vrs _ VhR _ WhV\h

XRS XhR HLWhr2h
(11.55)

A variance estimator of r' is

sr' (SyRS + r SXrs ~ SyRSlRs)/x RS (11.56)

where and s%Rt, are given by estimating equations of the type (11.48),
and the estimated covariance by

L
SynsTRs = 52 SKrx*hr (11.57)

where

s . . = - rihW^.)(z;t - r2hx* hi)]

(11.58)
nh(rih - 1)
204 Chapter 11

11.7 Gain due to stratification

As for stratified srs (section 10.6), so also for stratified pps samples it is
possible to examine the gain, if any, due to stratification as compared to
unstratified pps sampling.
We define

*h0 = 52 = Zhi!Z
as the sum of the probabilities of selection of the units of an unstratified
pps sample, the summation being over the Nh units in the hth stratum.
The gain due to stratification in the variance estimator of the total of
the study variable is

^(I/httao - l/n^)«2-o + -—
n
E£(l/7Tho ~ l)Sy»o
(11.59)
n

When 71^0 = Nh/N, the expression (11.59) takes the form

, N£.L NkfÎM-ÿr

^L(N/Nh - l)sj
____________________________ J ft 0
(11.60)
n
Note: The condition under which stratification would lead to a gain will be
discussed in Chapter 12.

Further reading
Cochran, sections 9A.13, 11.5, and 11.16; Hedayat and Sinha, chapter 9; Murthy
(1967), sections 7.8, 7.8b, and 10.6; Sukhatme et al. (1984), sections 4.17-4.19,
5.13, and 6.8; Yates, sections 3.10, 6.17, 7.5, and 7.16.

Exercise

1. Table 11.9 gives the acreage of wheat (yht) in sample parishes, selected
with probability proportional to size (the total acreage of crops and grass,
Xhi) in four districts of Hertfordshire, U.K. Estimate the total acreage of
wheat in these four districts taken together with its standard error, given
the total sizes of the districts at the bottom of the Table (Yates, Examples
6.17 and 7.16, modified).
Stratified Varying Probability Sampling 205

Table 11.9: Acreage of wheat (yhi) in sample parishes selected with proba­
bility proportional to size (the total acreage of crops and grass, in four
districts of Hertfordshire, U.K.

District I District II District III District IV

(3 parishes) (4 parishes) (5 parishes) (2 parishes)
Vhi hi y hi % hi Phi % hi y hi % hi

766 3040 311 2370 558 2300 225 2520

701 3440 228 3330 775 4430 738 3740
503 2040 249 2290 495 2890
686 2930 565 2420
862 4160

Total 43 591 57 263 73 946 34437

Source: Yates, Example 6.17 and 7.16 (adapted).

CHAPTER 12

Size of Sample
and Allocation to Different Strata

12.1 Introduction

In this chapter we will consider first the problems of the allocation of the
total sample size into different strata and of the formation of strata, and
second, the determination of the total size of the sample.

12.2 Principles of stratification

Equation (10.10) shows that the sampling variance of y (unbiasedly estimat­

ing the universe total Y) in a stratified srs depends on the within-stratum
variances and from equation (11.14), we see that in a stratified pps
sample, the sampling variance of y depends on the within-stratum variabil­
ity of Yhi/zhi. For efficient stratification, therefore, the strata should be
so formed as to be internally homogeneous with respect to Yhi in srs and
with respect to Yhi/Zhi in pps sampling, so that within-stratum variability
of Yhi (in srs) or of Yhi/zhi (in pps sampling) is minimized.

12.3 Allocation of sample size to different strata

12.3.1 Formulation of the problem

Given a total sample of size n, its allocation to the different strata would
be based on the same principle as in Chapter 7, namely, that for a specified
total cost of surveying the sample, the sampling variance should be the
minimum or vice versa.
The sampling variance of the sample estimator y of the universe total

207
208 Chapter 12

Y in srs and pps (both with replacement) takes the form

L
(12.1)
h=l

where is the variance per unit in the hth stratum, and rih is the sample
size in the /ith stratum. Thus in stratified srs (with replacement),

Nh _
VÀ = ir? = (12.2)
1=1

(see also equation (10.8)) and in stratified srs (with replacement) for pro­
portions

Vh=<Sh = Ph(\-Pk) (12.3)

from equation (2.68).

In stratified pps (with replacement)

hi--
Vh = YyYhd
* >"l
Ytf
* N'ik (12.4)
1=1

where 7thi — z.hjZh is the probability of selection of the ith universe unit
(i = 1,2,..., A\) in the hth stratum, Zhi is the “size” of the hith universe
unit, and Z/i is the total “size” of the hth stratum from equation (5.4).
A simple cost function in stratified sampling is
L
C = c0 + (12.5)
1

where c0 is the overhead cost, and the average cost of taking a sample unit
in the /ith stratum, which may vary from stratum to stratum, depending
on field conditions.

12.3.2 Optimum allocation

It can be shown that with the general variance function (12.1) and the cost
function (12.5), the optimum value of rih that minimizes the variance for a
given total cost or vice versa is proportional to AT >/( 14 /c^ ), and is given
by
nh __ WWW

n ^\/(u/c/i)
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 209

When the total cost is fixed at C,

Nh^(yh/ch)
nh = (C - c0) (12.6)

For a fixed variance V, the optimum allocation is

"h = [52 AW(twj [W(W] /V (12.7)

These are the optimum allocations of the total sample size n into differ­
ent strata and show that a large sample should be taken in a stratum which
is large (Nh large), is more variable internally (Vh large), and sampling is
inexpensive (ch small).

Notes
1. Theoretical proofs are given in Appendix II, section A2.3.10.
2. The optimum nh values would have been the same had we considered the
estimation of the universe mean Y/N, rather than that of the total Y. In
comparing expression (12.7) relating to the total with equivalent expres­
sions for the mean in other textbooks, note that the variance for the total
is № times the variance for the mean.
3. For stratified srs without replacement, the optimum allocation is similarly
obtained by taking the variance function (10.21) and the cost function
(12.5). The optimum nn is proportional to NhSh/y/ch (where Sh is defined
by equation (10.22)), and is given by the relation

nh _ NhSh/y/ch
~ ^NhSh/y/^

For a fixed total cost C', the optimum nh is obtained on substituting Sh

for y/Vh in equation (12.6). For a fixed variance V, the optimum nh is
obtained on substituting in the above relation the value of n given in note
(4) to section 12.6.2.
4. A sample survey usually includes more than one important item and what
may be an optimum stratification for one item will not necessarily be for
another item. Several solutions have been suggested in this common situ­
ation:

(a) A few items may be selected for optimization and an average taken
of the allocations taken of the optimum allocations for these items
(Cochran, section 5A.3).
210 Chapter 12

(b) Another compromise, suggested by Chatterjee (1967), would be to

choose the that minimizes the average of the proportional increases
in variances, i.e. average of
' L
- «h)2/nh
./1=1

where hh is the actual and n'h the optimum sample size in stratum h.
This amounts to choosing

Tlh — n
N
where n]h is the optimum sample size in stratum h for variable j
(Cochran, section 5A.4).
(c) Other options have been suggested by Yates (1981); see also Cochran,
section 5A.4.

Some other methods of allocation will now be considered.

12.3.3 Neyman allocation

If the cost per unit cj, is assumed to be the same (= c) in all the strata,
then the cost function (12.5) becomes

C = cq + nc (12.8)

(see also equation (7.27)) which determines the total sample size, given the
total cost C, thus

n-(C'~ co)/c (12.9)

(see also equation (7.28)). The optimum allocation for a fixed total cost is
then (from equation (12.6))

=
(12.10)

This is known as the Neyman allocation.

In both the optimum and the Neyman allocations, the values of Vh will
not be known, and estimates would have to be obtained from a previous or
a pilot survey relating to the study variable or from a survey relating to an
ancillary variable, which has a high positive correlation with it. Lacking
any information on the universe standard deviation, the range of the values
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 211

of the study variable (Rh) may be substituted for y/Vh in the Neyman
allocation (also see section 7.3), i.e.
_ nNhRh
(12.11)
~ ^NhRh
Notes
1. The Neyman allocation is sometimes called the optimum allocation. For
theoretical proof, see Appendix II, section A2.3.10.
2. In the Neyman allocation, the stratum sampling fraction nh/Nh is propor­
tional to ^/(Vh) (i.e., proportional to (Th in srs).

12.3.4 Proportional (Bowley) allocation

In the absence of any information on Vh, if it can be assumed to be the
same in all the strata, then the Neyman allocation takes the simple form
nh=nNh/N (12.12)
i.e. rih is proportional to Nh, or that the sample is allocated to the different
strata in proportion to the number of universe units Nh.
Also, since ^nh = n^Nh/N = n, the design will be self-weighting
stratified srs with proportional allocation (see section 13.2).

12.3.5 Allocation proportional to the stratum total

When the stratum coefficients of variation are assumed not to vary consid­
erably, the Neyman allocation (12.10) becomes
nh = nYh/Y (12.13)
i.e. nh is proportional to the stratum total Yh- The condition is likely
to be met when stratification is adopted for administrative or operational
conveniences. However, as the stratum totals Yh will not be known, in
practice the allocation will have to be made in proportion to the total of
an ancillary variable.
For skew universes, such as industrial establishments, income of individ­
uals, and agricultural farms, allocation proportional to the stratum total is
more efficient than proportional allocation.

12.3.6 Allocation in srs

A stratified srs with Neyman or proportional allocation is more efficient
than an unstratified srs, but the efficiency decreases with departure from
these allocations. While moderate departures do not affect the efficiency
seriously, an extremely wide departure may lead to a loss due to stratifica­
tion.
212 Chapter 12

12.3.7 Allocation in pps sampling

In stratified pps sampling, the sample units are selected within each stratum
with probability proportional to the size of an ancillary variable (irhi =
Zhi/Zh)- The formulae for the different types of allocation can be derived
from equations (12.4)-( 12.13); the difficulty in applying the optimum and
the Neyman allocations lies, as in stratified srs, in the non-availability of
advanced estimates of the stratum variances. A simple and appropriate
allocation is, however, that proportional to the stratum total sizes Zh (see
section 12.3.5 above), i.e.

nh = nZh/Z (12.14)

In such a case, stratified pps sampling is always more efficient than un­
stratified pps sampling. The wider the variation of the stratum proportions
YhfZh-, the greater will be the efficiency.

Note: If, further, nh is a constant, then the design can be made self-weighting
by selecting a fixed number of sample units with pps in each stratum, the “size”
being the stratum total Yh (see section 13.3).

12.3.8 Acreage surveys of crops

In section 11.4.2 was considered stratified sampling with probability pro­
portional to total area in the different strata for crop area surveys: an
unbiased estimator of the total area under a crop in such a plan is
L nh
Phi/rih (12.15)
h=l i=l

where Ah is the total geographical area of the /ith stratum, nh the number
of sample units (fields, farms, or plots) in the hth stratum, and phi is the
proportion of the total area under the crop in the hith sample unit.
If the allocation of the sample units is made proportional to the total
areas of the strata, i.e. if nh is proportional to Ah or

nh-nAh/A (12.16)

where A = Ah is the total area of the universe, then the design becomes
self-weighting (section 13.3).

Notes
1. Similar considerations apply to yield surveys of crops if the sample units
are selected with probability proportional to area (section 11.4.3).
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 213

2. A special case of the above is when the crop is such that it either occupies
the whole of a plot (phi = 1) or not at all (phi = 0), when the sampling
variance of the estimated total area under the crop is
hPh(l-Ph)/nh
^A2 (12.17)

where Ph is the universe proportion of the area under the crop in the hth
stratum.
With nh proportional to Ah, the variance formula (12.17) becomes

A AhPh(l ~ Ph)/n (12.18)

The optimum allocation then is

(12.19)
52 Ahx/[Ph(! - Ph)]

If the universe proportion Ph could be estimated from the data of an earlier

survey, an approximation to the optimum allocation could be obtained.
3. Fractional values of nh- The allocation (n^s) will mostly turn out to be
fractional. They may be rounded off to whole numbers in one of the fol­
lowing three ways:
(a) The usual rule of rounding off of the decimal system may be followed.
(b) The smaller nhS may be rounded off to higher integers at the cost of
larger nns.
(c) nh may be rounded off to the neighboring integers in a randomized
manner such that its expected value remains the same. Thus let
Uh = kh + dh, where kh is an integer and dh is a fraction; then nh
should be rounded off to kh with probability (1 — dh) and to (kh + 1)
with probability dh- For example, suppose in one stratum nh = 5.3
up to one decimal figure; then a one digit random number is chosen;
if it falls between 1 and (10 — 3 =)7, then nh is taken as 5, and if the
random number is 8, 9 or 0, then nh is taken as 6. This procedure may
be necessary in self-weighting designs (Chapter 13), but otherwise
procedure (b) may be more reasonable.

12.4 Formation of strata

12.4.1 Formulation of the problem

In large-scale surveys, the primary strata are usually compact administra­
tive areas, within which ultimate strata are constituted. The problem is
to determine the number of strata and to demarcate them. In stratified
srs, the strata should be so formed as to maximize principally the varia­
tion between stratum means and, to a lesser extent, the stratum standard
214 Chapter 12

deviations; in stratified pps sampling, on the other hand, the units within
each stratum should be homogeneous with respect to Yhilzhi\ in practice,
the values of the study variable relating to an earlier survey or those of a
related ancillary variable would have to be used. The variable on basis of
which stratification is made is called the stratification variable.

12.4.2 Demarcation of strata

There are several practical rules for the demarcation of the different strata.
(i) Equalization of Nhy/Vh (Dalenius-Gurney rule). The strata may be
so formed as to equalize the values of Nhy/Vh (= Nh&h in srswr) in
the different strata, and then an equal allocation of the total sample
to the different strata may be made. This requires, of course, a prior
knowledge of y/Vh for different sets of stratification points.

(ii) Equalization of NhRh (Ekman rule). In srs, lacking information on

(Th, the values of NhRh may be equalized, where Rh is the range of
the study variable in the hth stratum.
(iii) Equalization of stratum totals Yh (Mahalanobis-Hansen-Hurwitz-
Madow rule). The strata may be formed by equalizing the stratum
totals Yh (or the stratum totals of the stratification variable, in prac­
tice) with an equal allocation. This is a good rule when the stratum
coefficients of variation are approximately the same (see also section
12.3.5) and would not change appreciably with changes in stratum
boundaries; this situation is likely to be met when geographical strat­
ification is made on administrative considerations. The rule is simple
and also helps in achieving a self-weighting design, when a fixed num­
ber of sample units is selected in each stratum (see section 13.3).
For example, in the Indian National Sample Survey (1958-9), with
the main emphasis on a demographic inquiry, the primary strata in
the rural areas consisted of geographically compact areas formed by
equalizing the 1951 Census populations.

Note: For estimates of ratios (such as birth rate, death rate etc., in a vital
rate survey, or average income per person in a household budget inquiry),
the stratum sizes may be made equal with respect to a measure of the
size that is highly correlated with the denominator of the ratios (total
population in our examples).

(iv) Equalization of Cumulatives of y/[f{y)\ (Dalenius-Hodges rule). If the

number of strata is large and stratification effective, the distribution
of the study variable can be assumed to be rectangular within the
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 215

different strata. A very good rule in this case is to form the strata
by equalizing the cumulatives of ^/[/(?/)] where f(y) is the frequency
distribution of the study variable. This makes Nh&h approximately
constant in srs, so that the Neyman allocation gives a constant sample
size riQ = n/L in all strata. As the optimum is generally flat with
respect to variations in n^, the use of the Dalenius-Hodges rule would
be highly efficient.

12.4.3 Number of strata

Stratification with proportional allocation is always more efficient than un­

stratified sampling. But stratification may be carried up to a point where
only one unit is selected from each stratum: estimates of sampling vari­
ances cannot be computed then without resort to approximate methods
(see section 24.8). One consideration is therefore that the number of strata
should at most be | n if n is even and | (n — 1) if n is odd, so that at
least two units are selected from each stratum. The other consideration is
that although in general the efficiency increases with the number of strata,
beyond a certain point the gain in efficiency will not be worth the efforts
required to increase the number of strata.

12.5 Multiple stratification

If a universe is stratified according to two or more factors, it is said to be

multiple stratified. In practice, this may be difficult to apply even when the
required data are available, due to possible conflicts in the different stratifi­
cation criteria. For example, for surveys on areas under different crops, the
total geographical area may be a suitable stratification variable, but pop­
ulation may be more suitable for purposes of stratification in demographic
or labor force surveys.
A compromise in such a case would be to stratify the universe first
according to the most important stratification variable, and then within
each stratum so formed to sub-stratify according to the next most impor­
tant variable, and so on. This is known as multiple stratification or deep
stratification.
216 Chapter 12

12.6 Determination of the total sample size

12.6.1 Specified cost

For the optimum allocation, with the given total cost C, the total sample
size is

(C'-c.iEA'tVtW

For proof, see Appendix II, section A2.3.10.

For the Neyman allocation, from equation (12.8) the total sample size
is determined as
n = (C'-c0)/c (12.9)
For the proportional allocation (equation (12.12)), the cost function
(12.5) gives the total sample size as

where for the proportional allocation Wh = rih/n = Nh/N. If cost function

(12.8) is taken, then the total sample size is given by equation (12.9) with
proportional allocation also.

Note: For stratified srs without replacement, the value of n is obtained on replac­
ing y/Vh by Sh in equation (12.20) for optimum allocation.

12.6.2 Specified variance: continuous data

For continuous data, if V is the desired variance of a sample estimator y of
the universe total Y in a stratified sample, then the sampling variance of
the estimator y equation (10.15) could be written as

V = av=^NN1lwh)ln (12.22)

where = nwh, where the Wh values have been chosen already.

From equation (12.22) the required sample size n for a specified V is

" = YSNfâ /wk)/V (12.23)

For the Neyman allocation, i.e. when Wh oc N^cTh, equation (12.23)

becomes

n = (£№^))2/v (12.24)
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 217

and for proportional allocation, i.e. when Wh = Nh/N, the required total
sample size is

n = ^N^h/V (12.25)

Notes
1. As ah will not in general be known, it has to be estimated from a pilot
inquiry or from other available information, such as the range.
2. Estimation of the universe mean Y/N requires the same sample size as that
for the total Y.
3. If the margin of error d is specified (see section 7.2.2), then

V = (d/t)2 (12.26)

where t is the normal deviate corresponding to the permissible probability

that the error will exceed the specified margin.
4. For stratified srs without replacement, the value of n in Neyman allocation
is

n' V + ^NhSl

12.6.3 Specified variance: estimation of proportions

If V is the desired variance of the proportion P for the whole universe, then
the required sample size n for the Neyman allocation is

" N2V (12.27)

and for proportional allocation

n = '£SNi'p*
Q ’''>/NV (12.28)

where Ph is the proportion in the /ith stratum, and Qh = 1 -Ph-

Notes
1. In practice, an estimate ph of Ph will have to be used in formulae (12.27)
and (12.28).
2. Estimation of the total number of universe units in a certain category,
namely, NP, requires the same sample size as for that P.
218 Chapter 12

12.7 Examples

Example 12.1

The data on the number of cattle obtained from a recent census are given in
Table 12.1, in the 5 strata according to the total acreage of the farms, along with
the present total number of farms in these strata. The problem is to estimate
the present total number of cattle in the universe and its variance, by taking a
sample of 500 farms.
(a) Determine the allocations of the sample in the different strata according to
the following principles: (i) Neyman allocation, (ii) proportional allocation,
and (iii) allocation proportional to the total number of cattle in the different
strata;
(b) Also compute the expected variance for each of these (United Nations Man­
ual, Process 4, Example 4, adapted).
(a) The required computations are shown in Table 12.2. Formula (12.10)
is used for the Neyman allocation, and formula (12.12) for the proportional al­
location. For allocation proportional to the stratum totals, the stratum total
= N'hyh for the previous census is used, and the formula (12.13), modified as
nh = nY^/Y', is applied (Y' = Yh)-

Table 12.1: Number of cattle, obtained from a previous census, and the
present total number of farms in each stratum

Stratum Previous census Present

(acres) total
Total Average Estimated number of
number of number of s.d. per farms
farms cattle unit
h K Vh «h Nh

I: 0-15 625 3.91 4.5 635

II: 16-30 564 10.38 7.3 570
III: 31-50 476 14.72 9.6 475
IV: 51-75 304 21.99 12.2 303
V: 76-100 86 27.38 15.8 89

All strata 2055 2072

combined (A') (A)

Source: United Nations Manual, Process 4, Example 4 (adapted).

Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 219

Table 12.2: Computation of the allocation to different strata of the sample

500 farms: data of Table 12.1

Stratum »¡A Neyman

*
Allocations
Propor-
(nh)
Propor­
tional tional to Y'h

I 2812.5 2444 84 153 50

II 4117.2 5854 125 138 120
III 4569.6 7007 138 115 144
IV 3708.8 6685 112 73 137
V 1358.8 2355 41 21 49

All strata 16,566.9 24,345 500 500 500

combined (Erç) (n) (n) (n)

500 N1
. s!
nh = r-v 7 ? (12.10)
t
nh = 500 Nh/N (12.12)
t
nh=500Y^/^Y^ (12.13)

(b) The expected variances are computed in Table 12.3. The relevant formula
for any stratum is

where sl2h are the variances per unit obtained from the previous census, and Nh
and nh respectively the total and sample number in the present inquiry.
Note that in this case, allocation proportional to the stratum totals will be
almost as efficient as the Neyman allocation. The results of an actual sample,
using proportional allocation, is given in exercise 1, Chapter 10; the actual com­
puted variance of the estimated total number of cattle was 575,597, as compared
with the expected value of 640,997.

Example 12.2

An inquiry is to be designed to estimate the expected proportion of families with

transistor ratios in two cities in Ethiopia. Rough estimates of the total number
of families, the proportion with radios, and the cost of surveying family are given
in Table 12.4. Treating the cities as strata, and assuming srs (with replacement)
in each stratum, obtain the total optimum sample size and its allocation to the
two cities, if the total cost (excluding overheads) is fixed at Eth. $20,000.
220 Chapter 12

Table 12.3: Expected variances of total number of cattle according to dif­

ferent allocations: data of Tables 12.1 and 12.2

Stratum Estimated variance

* in
h
Neyman Proportional Allocation propor­
allocation allocation tional to

I 97,206 53,368 163,306

II 138,511 125,463 144,283
III 150,678 180,814 144,400
IV 122,008 187,190 99,743
V 48,229 94,162 40,355

All strata 566,632 640,997 592,087

combined

‘ Nb’2h/nh

Table 12.4: Rough estimates of the total number of families, proportion

with transistor ratios, and the cost of enumerating one family in two cities
in Ethiopia

City Number of Proportion with Cost of surveying

families transistor radios one family
h Ph Ch

I 140,000 0.10 Eth $2.25

II 30,000 0.25 1.00
 Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Strata 221

Table 12.5: Computation of the optimum allocations from the data of Table
12.4: Stratified srs of families

city Vh = y/(Vhch) Nhy/(Vhch) y/(Vh/ch) Nh nh = 20, OOOx

Ph(l-Ph) Nhy/(Vk/ch)/
24,525

I 0.0900 0.1350 18,900 0.0600 6400 6850

II 0.1875 0.1875 5625 0.1875 5625 4587

Total 24,525 14,025 11,437

(n)

The required computations are shown in Table 12.5. With Vh given by equa­
tion (12.3), the optimum allocations are given by equation (12.6). There are 6850
families in the first city and 4587 in the second, with a total of 11,437 sample
families. (As a check on the computations, it can be verified that the total cost
= 6850x Eth. $2.25 + 4587x Eth. $1.00 = $19, 999 or Eth. $20,000).

Further reading
Cochran, sections 5.5-5.12, and chapter 5A; Deming (1950), chapter 6, and
(1960), chapter 20; Hansen et al. (1953), vols. I and II, chapter 5; Hedayat and
Sinha, chaper 9; Kish (1965), chapter 3; Murthy (1967), chapter 7; Sukhatme et
al. (1984), sections 4.4-4.8, and 4.11-4.14.

Exercises

1. In a survey, using a stratified srs with five strata, rough estimates of the
universe units (A\), the standard deviation (07,) and the cost of surveying
one unit (c/, in a certain unit) in the different strata are given in Table
12.6. The total cost is fixed at 10,000 and the overhead cost at 500. Deter­
mine the optimum total sample size and its allocations to different strata
(Chakravarti et al., Illustrative Example 4.1).
2. A survey is designed to estimate the proportion of illiterate persons in
three communities. Rough estimates of the total number of persons and
the proportion illiterate are given in Table 12.7. Assuming a stratified srs,
with the communities as the strata, how would you allocate a total sample
of 2000 persons in the strata so as to estimate the overall proportion of
illiterates?
222 Chapter 12

Table 12.6: Rough estimates of the total number of units, standard devia­
tion, and cost of surveying one unit in the different strata

Stratum Nh <Th Ch Optimum

h allocation

I 37,800 28.5 3.50 587

II 52,600 18.6 2.75 601
III 82,000 27.6 2.25 1537
IV 41,600 21.2 3.00 519
V 28,800 16.8 2.50 312

Source: Chakravarti et al., Illustrative Example 4.1.

Table 12.7: Rough estimates of the total number of persons, and proportion
illiterate in three communities

Community Total number Proportion

of persons illiterate
h Nh Ph

I 60,000 0.4
II 10,000 0.2
III 30,000 0.6
CHAPTER 13

Self-weighting Designs
in Stratified Single-stage Sampling

13.1 Introduction

This chapter deals with the problems of making a stratified design self­
weighting. We first consider stratified srs and then stratified varying prob­
ability sampling: the method of making any stratified design self-weighting
at the tabulation stage will also be outlined.

13.2 Stratified simple random sampling

In stratified srs (as also in stratified circular systematic sampling with one
sample), an unbiased estimator y of the universe total Y is

L nh
Vhi/nh (13.1)
h=i :=1

(see also (10.5.d)) where Nh and are the total number of units and the
number of sample units respectively in the Ath stratum, and yhi the value
of the study variable for the zth selected sample unit in the /ith stratum.
The weighting factor (or multiplier) for the hith sample unit is

Whi = Nh/nh (13.2)

and for the design to be self-weighting with respect to y, this should be

constant wo- Then

w0 = Nh/nh = N/n (13.3)

223
224 Chapter 13

where N (= Nh) is the total number of units in the universe and

n (= nh) is the total number of units in the sample, i.e.

nh = ~ Nh = — (13.4)
N w0 v '
This is the proportional allocation case (see section 10.2, note 2, and
section 12.3.4).
Thus, a stratified srs will be self-weighting only with proportional allo­
cation. Although the optimum and the Neyman allocations result in more
efficient estimators, these require a prior knowledge of the variability in the
different strata, which may not often be available. In such situations, there
may be some advantage in the proportional allocation.
With a self-weighting stratified srs (i.e. a stratified srs with propor­
tional allocations), some unbiased estimators defined in section 10.2 take
the following form:

Vhi = Nhyhi = u)Onhyhi ;

nh
Vho = Nhyh = w0^yhi- (13.5)

L L rih

y = 22 - w° 22 22yhi = w° 22 yhi ; (13.6)

sample
rib
sk0 ~ Nh^JJhi-ÿh)2/nh(nh-^

= wonh^(yhi -ÿh)2/nh(nh - 1); (13.7)

and
L
(13.8)

The estimators of the ratio of the two universe totals (defined in esti­
mating equations (10.7.b) and (10.7.d)) are

(13.9)

and

(13.10)
Self-weighting Designs in Stratified Single-stage Sampling 225

13.3 Stratified varying probability sampling

In stratified varying probability sampling, the unbiased estimator y of the

universe total Y of a study variable is

(13.11)

(see also (11.6.d)) where 7T^, is the (initial) probability of selection of the
¿th universe unit (i = 1,2,..., Nh) in the Ath stratum.
In pps sampling 7Thi = where Zhi is the value of the “size”
variable of the hith universe unit, and Zh — ^Nh is the total “size” of
the Ath stratum.
The multiplier for the hith sample unit is

whi = l/(nhiThi) = Zh/(nhzhi)

If the ratio yhi/zhi can be observed and recorded easily in the field, then
the design will be self-weighting when the ratios Zh/nh are the same in all
the strata and equal to Z{n. This will be so if n\ is proportional to i.e.

nk = ^Zh (13.13)

A special case of this is when the strata are made equal with respect to the
total “sizes” and an equal number of sample units is selected with pps from
each stratum (sections 12.3.7 and 12.4).
The above rule is especially helpful in acreage and yield surveys of crops,
when a sample of fields (or farms or plots) is selected with probability pro­
portional to total (geographical) area in each stratum. If the number of
sample units allocated to a stratum is made proportional to the total geo­
graphical area of the stratum, the design becomes self-weighting as yhi/zhi
(the proportion of the area under the crop or the crop-yield per unit area)
can be observed easily (sections 11.4 and 12.3.8).

13.4 Fractional values of nh

The values of nh required to make a stratified srs or pps sample self­

weighting will not in general be integers. In such cases, one of the following
procedures may be adopted.

1. nh may be rounded off to the neighboring integers in a randomized

manner such that its expected value remains the same (note 3 to
section 12.3).
226 Chapter 13

2. In stratified srs, the samples may be selected systematically with the

same fractional interval N/n (see section 4.2), or the interval may
be rounded off to N/n or N/n + 1 in a randomized manner so that
the expected value of n/, remains the same; similarly, in stratified
pps sampling the samples may be selected with the same fractional
interval Z/n, or the intervals may be rounded off in a randomized
manner.

3. Samples may be selected linear systematically with the same interval

I (integer nearest to N/n) in each stratum, when the estimator y will
become I

13.5 Self-weighting designs at the tabulation stage

A design that is not originally self-weighting can be made so at the tabu­

lating stage by selecting a sub-sample with probability proportional to the
multipliers: the pps sampling can be with replacement or systematic. The
procedure will, however, lead to an increase in variance.
When a sub-sample of size n' (< n) is taken out of the original n (=
nh) sample units in a stratified srs or pps sample with probability
proportional to multipliers (w^i) and with replacement, then

= (1314)
7=1

gives an unbiased estimator of Y, where

/ L nh \
V'j
* = A y'j (1315)

y'j being the value of the study variable of the jth unit in the sub-sample
(j = l,2,...,n').
An unbiased estimator of the variance of y^ is

~ ~ 1) (13.16)

Estimators of ratios and their variance estimators follow from the fun­
damental theorems of section 2.7.

Further reading
Murthy (1967), sections 12.2 and 12.5
PART III

MULTI-STAGE
SAMPLING
CHAPTER 14

Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction

14.1 Introduction

In multi-stage sampling, the sample is selected in stages, the sampling units

in each stage being sub-sampled from the (larger) units chosen at the pre­
vious stage, with appropriate methods of selection of the units - simple
random sample (with or without replacement), systematic, probability pro­
portional to size etc. - being adopted at each stage. In other words, the
universe is divided into a number of first-stage (or primary sampling) units,
which are sampled; then the selected first-stage units are sub-divided into
a number of smaller second-stage (or secondary sampling) units, which are
again sampled: the process is continued until the ultimate sampling units
are reached.
This part of the book will deal with (unstratified) multi-stage sample
designs. In this chapter, we shall consider the general theorems relating to
multi-stage sampling; subsequent chapters will deal with two- and three-
stage sampling with srs and pps sampling at different stages; the size and
allocation of the sample; the estimation of the sampling variances at differ­
ent stages; and self-weighting designs.

14.2 Reasons for multi-stage sampling

Multi-stage sampling is adopted in a number of situations:

1. Sampling frames may not be available for all the ultimate observa­
tional units in the universe, and it is extremely laborious and expen­
sive to prepare such a complete frame. Here, multi-stage sampling is
the only practical method. For example, in a rural household sam­
ple survey, conducted at intercensal periods, the households in rural
areas could be reached after selecting a sample of villages (first-stage

229
230 Chapter 14

units), after which a list of households within the selected villages only
is prepared, and then selecting a sample of households (second-stage
units) in the selected villages. In a crop survey, villages may be first
selected (first-stage units); and next a list of fields prepared within
the selected villages and a sample of the fields taken (second-stage
units); and finally, a list of plots prepared within the selected fields
and a sample of these plots taken (third-stage units). In this way,
great savings are achieved as sampling frames need be constructed
only for the selected sampling units and not for all the sampling units
in the universe. Moreover in multi-stage sampling, ancillary informa­
tion collected on the sampling units while listing the units at each
stage could help in improving the efficiency of sample designs, either
by stratification of the units, or by selecting the sample with proba­
bility proportional to size when the ancillary information is available
before sample selection at that stage, or by using the ratio or regres­
sion method of estimation.

2. Even when suitable sampling frames for the ultimate units are avail­
able for the universe, a multi-stage sampling plan may be more con­
venient than a single-stage sample of the ultimate units, as the cost
of surveying and supervising such a sample in large-scale surveys can
be very high due to travel, identification, contact, etc. This point
is closely related to the consideration of cluster sampling (Chapter
6). For instance, in a large-scale agricultural survey conducted in a
developed country, although an up-to-date list of farms may be read­
ily available from which a simple random sample of farms can be
drawn, the cost of travelling and supervision of work on the widely
scattered farms may be extremely high. Therefore, the procedure to
be adopted would be to try to confine the sample of farms to certain
area segments.
3. Multi-stage sampling can be a convenient means of reducing response
errors and improving sampling efficiency by reducing the intra-class
correlation coefficient observed in natural sampling units, such as
households or villages. Thus, in opinion and marketing research, it
becomes necessary to select only one individual in a sample house­
hold in order to avoid conditioned response, and also to spread the
sample over a greater number of sample households because of the
general homogeneity of responses of individuals in a household, even
if the “true” responses of all the members of the household could be
obtained.
Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 231

Note: Multi-stage sampling is cheaper and operationally easier than srs but not
more than single-stage cluster sampling; considering sampling variability, how­
ever, multi-stage sampling is generally less efficient than srs but more efficient
than cluster sampling: this is, of course, based on the assumption that the total
sample size is fixed. Some of the lost efficiency may, however, be regained by
using ancillary information.

14.3 Structure of a multi-stage design

Figure 14.1 illustrates the structure of a two-stage design for a household

survey in rural areas for which there is no current list of households. Of the
total N villages, a sample of n villages is selected in an appropriate way;
all the extant households (Mi in number; i = 1,2,..., n) in these n sample
villages are listed by the enumerators by actual field visit; and in the ¿th
sample village, a sample of households m, in number) is finally selected
for the survey and the required household characteristics recorded. This is
a two-stage design, with villages as the first-stage and households as the
second-stage units. The total number of households in all the villages is
Mi, which is generally not known; the sample number is m,.

Note: In such a plan, if all the N villages are included in the survey and a sample
of households mt (i = 1,2,.. ., TV) selected in each village, the design becomes
stratified single-stage (with total number of sample households, mt), and the
methods of Part II of the book will apply. If in the sample of n villages, all the
M, households are included in the survey, the design becomes single-stage cluster
sampling (with total number of sample households, A/t), and the methods of
Part I of the book will apply. Of course, if all the N villages are included in the
survey and all the Mt households in all these villages surveyed, the survey is one
of complete enumeration without any sampling (with total number of households,

14.4 Fundamental theorems in multi-stage sampling

The fundamental theorems for the estimation of universe parameters in

multi-stage sampling are analogous to those in section 2.7 (see note 1 to
the section).
1. If n (> 2) units are selected out of the total N first-stage units
with replacement (and with equal or varying probabilities), and t,
(i = 1,2,..., n) is an unbiased estimator of the universe parameter
T, obtained from the ¿th selected first-stage unit, then a combined
232 Chapter 14

T <’

■
4
>* Illi

*'
£ a

li III

It
■

s / <•

kl-l-l.: I

Figure 14.1: Schematic representation of a two-stage sample design. Vil­

lages (first-stage units) are bounded by double lines and households (the
second-stage units) by thin lines; selected villages are indicated by grey
shading and sample households (in the selected villages) by black shading.

unbiased estimator of T is the arithmetic mean

n
t = '^2ti/n (14-1)

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of t is

— t)2/n{n — 1) — SSti/n(n — 1) (14-2)

We shall show later how to compute the ti values for a multi-stage

design.
If Ui (z = l,2,...,n) are the n independent unbiased estimators,
obtained also from the n first-stage sample units, of another universe
parameter U, then a combined unbiased estimator of U is similarly

u= Ui/n (14.3)

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of u is

= ^(rtg “ u)2/n(n - 1) = SSui/n(n - 1) (14.4)

Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 233

2. An unbiased estimator of the covariance of t and u is the estimator

n
Stu = - 0(u* - u)/n(n - 1)
— SPtuUi/n(n — 1) (14.5)

3. A consistent, but generally biased, estimator of the ratio of the uni­

verse parameters R = T/U is the ratio of the sample estimators t and
ü

r = t/u (14.6)

and an estimator of the variance of r is

s2r = + r2sl - 2rsfü/ü2 (14.7)

4. A consistent, but generally biased, estimator of the universe corre­

lation coefficient p between the two study variables is the sample
correlation coefficient

Ptü - sîü/sîsü (14.8)

5. For unbiased estimators of universe totals, obtained from the first-

stage units we change the notation and also deal with the totals of a
study variable.

In a multi-stage sample design with u states (u > 1), at the /th stage
(t = 1,2,... , u), let ni2...(t—1) sample units be selected with replacement
out of the total Ai 2... (t_i) units and let the (initial) probability of selection
of the (12 ... i)th unit be 7Ti 2...t- We define

ft = ^12 ...(t-l)TT12 ...t (14.9)

An unbiased estimator of the universe total Y of the study variable is

y= (n^P12 ■u~ 52 W12. UÏ/12...U (14.10)

sample \ 1 ' sample

where t/i 2 . , .u is the value of the study variable in the (12 ... u)th ultimate­
stage sample units, and the factors

(14.11)
234 Chapter 14

are the weighting-factors (or the multipliers) for the (12 ... u)th ultimate­
stage sample units; the sum of the products of these multipliers and the
values of the study variable for all the ultimate-stage sample units provides
the unbiased linear estimator y of the universe total Y in equation (14.10).
An unbiased estimator of the variance of the sample estimator y in the
general estimating equation (14.10) is

Z" Y Wi 2 ... ul/1 2 ... u

L 2,3,...,u

/ n(n — 1)
" 52 W1 2 ...uVl 2 ... u (14.12)
1,2, ...,u

where n (> 2) is the number of first-stage units selected with replacement,

the summation outside the square brackets being over these first-stage units.
The formulae can be put in simpler forms. Using a slightly different
notation, an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y, obtained from the
zth first-stage unit (i = 1,2,. .., n), is

Vi = n ^2 w12...u’/12...u (14.13)
2,3,..,,u

the summation being over the second- and subsequent-stage sampling units.
The combined unbiased estimator of the universe total Y from all the
n sample first-stage units is, as we have seen from equation (14.1), the
arithmetic mean

yo = 52 y* !n (14.14)

which is the same as the estimator y in equation (14.10), the summation in

equation (14.14) being over the n sample first-stage units.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of y* } is, from equation (14.2),
n

sy* 0 = ~ y^2/n^n - (14.15)

which is the same as equation (14.11).

Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 235

Notes
1. Estimating equation (14.10) applies to single- as well as multi-stage de­
signs, sample selection being done with equal probability with or without
replacement, or with varying probability with replacement or systematic
sampling with equal or varying probability.
2. For srs, the fs are the sampling fractions at different stages.
3. The above formulae, which will be illustrated in later chapters for two- and
three-stage designs, are adequate in obtaining estimates of universe totals,
means, ratios, etc. of study variables, and also estimates of their variances.
4. The variance of a universe estimator is built up of the variances at differ­
ent stages of a multi-stage design. The equations for estimating variances
given above do not show these components separately and these are not
required for estimating universe totals, means, ratio etc., with their re­
spective standard errors. However, the decomposition of the total variance
into the component stage-variances is essential in improving the design of
subsequent sample surveys (Chapter 17).
5. For the estimation of the variance of y by equation (14.12), it is not nec­
essary that the number of sample units at stages other than the first be
two or more; they must, however, be so if estimates of stage-variances are
required.

14.5 Setting of confidence limits

The same results as for single-stage sampling given in section 2.8 apply also
for multi-stage sampling. The (100 — a) per cent confidence limits of the
universe parameter T are set with the sample estimator t and its estimated
standard error Sf, thus

t±t»,„-!«< (14.16)

where t'an_1 is the 100a percentage point of the /-distribution for (n —

1) degrees of freedom. For large n, the percentage points of the normal
distribution could be using in place of those for the /-distribution.

Further reading
Murthy, sections 9.1 and 9.2.
CHAPTER 15

Multi-stage Simple Random

Sampling

15.1 Introduction

In this chapter will be presented the estimating methods for totals, mean,
and ratios of study variables and their variances in a multi-stage sample
with simple random sampling at each stage: the methods for two- and
three-stage designs are illustrated in some detail and the general procedure
for a multi-stage design indicated. The methods of estimation of proportion
of units in a category and the use of ratio estimators will also be considered.

15.2 Two-stage srs: Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their vari­
ances

15.2.1 Universe totals and means

Let the number of first-stage units (fsu’s) be N, and the number of second-
stage units (ssu’s) in the ¿th fsu (z = 1, 2,..., TV) be Mi\ the total number
of ssu’s in the universe is Mi (Table 15.1). Denoting by Yjj the value
of the study variable of the jth ssu (j = 1,2,..., Mi) in the ¿th fsu, we
define the following universe parameters:
Total of the values of the study variable in the ¿th fsu:

(15.1)

Mean for the ¿th fsu:

(15.2)

237
238 Chapter 15

Table 15.1: Sampling plan for a two-stage simple random sample with
replacement

State Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(t) universe sample method probability

1 First-stage N n srswr Equal = 1/N n/N

2 Second-stage M, srswr Equal = 1/M, m,/M,

Grand total:
NM, N N
(15.3)

Mean per fsu:

N
Y = Y/N = MiYi/N (15.4)

Mean per ssu:

N
(15.5)

15.2.2 Structure of a two-stage srs

Out of the fsu’s, n are selected; and out of the Mi ssu’s in the zth selected
fsu (z = 1,2,..., n), mi are selected; sampling at both stages in srs with
replacement (also see section 14.3 and Figure 14.1). The total number of
ssu’s in the sample, i.e. the sample size, is m,.
Let yij denote the value of the study variable in the jth selected ssu
(j = 1,2,..., m,) in the zth selected fsu (z = 1,2,..., n).

15.2.3 Estimation of the universe total Y and the variance of the

sample estimator
The problem is first to estimate the universe total Y and the variance of
the sample estimator. This will be shown in three ways:
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 239

(a) Estimating downwards from the fsu’s;

(b) estimating upwards from the ssu’s; and
(c) estimating from the general estimating equations given in section
14.4.
(a) Estimating downwards from the first-stage units. If all the Mi ssu’s
in each of the n sample fsu’s are completely surveyed and t/, is the value of
the study variable (i.e. the sum of the values for the Mi ssu’s) in the ¿th
sample fsu, then the estimating methods of Chapter 2 will apply. Thus,
an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y from the ith selected fsu is,
from equation (2.42),

y- = Nyi (15.6)
The combined unbiased estimator of Y, obtained from all the n sample
fsu’s, is the simple arithmetic mean (from equation (2.43))

An unbiased estimator of the variance of j/q is, from equation (2.44),

sy* 0 = -yo?/n(n- !) (15-8)

If, however, all the Mi ssu’s in the ith sample fsu are not completely
surveyed, but a sample of mt- ssu’s is taken, then the value of the study
variable in the sample fsu Yi (or yi above) has to be estimated on the
basis of these sample mt- ssu’s. Let the value of the study variable in the
jth sample ssu (j = 1, 2,..., m,) in the ith sample fsu be yij. Then an
unbiased estimator of the total Yi (or ?/, above) from the ijth sample ssu
is, from equation (2.42),

Pij = Miyij (15.9)

and the combined unbiased estimator of Yi (from equation (2.43)) is the
simple arithmetic mean
1 m, m m'

J=1 J=1

where

y< = ^2yii/mi (15.11)

j=l
240 Chapter 15

is the unbiased estimator of the universe mean Yi in the ¿th fsu.

This value of j/* 0 is substituted for y, in equation (15.6) to provide the
unbiased estimator of Y, from the ¿th sample fsu, namely

(15.12)

and in equation (15.7) to provide the combined unbiased estimator of Y

from all the n sample fsu’s, namely

(15.13)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of t/g is, from equation (14.2),

SCO = _ ^o)2/n(n - 1) (15.14)

(b) Estimating upwards from the second-stage units. If is the value

of the study variable in the jth sample ssu of the ¿th sample fsu, the average
value of the study variable in an srs of ssu’s is obtained on summing up
these yij values for the m8 sample ssu’s and dividing by rn1: namely
- mt

J=1

To obtain the unbiased estimator of the total Yi in the ¿th sample fsu in
an srs, we multiply this average by the actual total number of ssu’s, Mi, to
give
v’o = MiV, (15.10)
An unbiased estimator of the universe total Y obtained from the ¿th sample
fsu is given in an srs on multiplication of y* Q by N, the total number of fsu’s,
namely
y,' = (15.12)
and the combined unbiased estimator of Y from all the n sample villages
is the simple arithmetic mean

* .
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 241

(15.13)

an unbiased variance estimator of which is given by equation (15.14).

(c) From the general estimating equations for a multi-stage design. We

use the results of section 14.4(5). Noting that in simple random sampling,
the (initial) probability of selection of an fsu is 7Ti = \/N, and that of an
ssu is TTij — 1/Mi (see table 15.1), we find from equation (14.9),

For the first-stage units: /i = n7rt- — n/N

(15.15)
For the second-stage units: /2 = mt-7rt-j = mi/Mi

These are shown in the last column of Table 15.1.

An unbiased estimator of the universe total Y is, from equation (14.10),

y = 52 7~~f~ yii = 52 Vij (15.16)

sample 12 i,j

where yij is the value of the study variable in the jth sample ssu in the ¿th
sample fsu, and

1 N Mi
wij = -,—7- =------------ (15.17)
/1/2 n mi
Putting this value of Wij in equation (15.16), we get

(15.18)

which is the same as the estimating equation (15.13).

Also, from equation (14.13), the unbiased estimator of Y from the ¿th
sample fsu is

* V- nN Mi NMi
Vi =n2^ wijya =-------- y , va =------- y „ yij (15.19)
t—* nmi m, '
« j=i j=i

which is the same as the estimating equation (15.12).

An unbiased estimator of the variance of y (or y^) is given by equation
(14.15).
242 Chapter 15

Notes
1. If all the first-stage units are known to have the same total number of ssu’s,
e. if
i. = Afo say, then the combined unbiased estimator ?/□ in equation
(15.13) becomes

(15.20)

2. If, in addition, the sample number of second-stage units in each sample fsu
is fixed, mt = mo say, then the design becomes self-weighting and
n
NMp
(15.21)
nmo
«=J J=1

3. In some textbooks, the number of ssu’s Mt is referred to as the “size” of

the «th fsu. We shall, however, use the term “size” to mean the value of
the ancillary variable of pps selection (Chapters 5, 16, and 21); a special
case of the size is Mt (sections 16.3.2 and 21.3.2).

15.2.4 Sampling variance of the estimator y*

The sampling variance of y$ in srswr at both stages is

where

J = '£(Yt-Y?/N
is the variance between the fsu’s, and
M.

is the variance between the ssu’s within the zth fsu. a?.
Vo is estimated unbi-
asedly by s^., defined by equation (15.14).

Notes
1. If sampling is simple random without replacement at both stages, j/q, de­
fined in equation (15.13), still remains the (combined) unbiased estimator
of Y. The sampling variance and its unbiased estimator are given in section
17.2.4.
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 243

2. If sampling is simple random with replacement at the first stage and simple
random without replacement at the second stage, the estimator j/q, defined
in equation (15.13), remains unbiased for Y. Its sampling variance is given
in section 17.2.4, note 4, and the unbiased variance estimator is s2,, defined
in equation (15.14).

15.2.5 Estimation of the ratio of the totals of two study variables

For another study variable, the unbiased estimator Xq of the universe total
X can be obtained in the same manner as in section 15.2.3. Thus, the
unbiased estimator of X, obtained from the ¿th sample fsu is, as in equation
(15.12),

(15.25)

where X{j is the value of the other study variable in the jith sample ssu in
the ¿th sample fsu; and the combined unbiased estimator of X from all the
n sample fsu’s is, as in equation (15.13),

(15.26)

with an unbiased variance estimator 0 defined as for s'l. in equation

(15.14).
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the ratio of two universe
totals R = Y/X is the ratio of the sample estimators i/q and Xq (from
equation (14.6)),

r = Vq/xq (15.27)

and a variance estimator of r is, from equation (14.7),

(15.28)

where
n
sy*x- = - xo)/”(” - !) (15.29)

is the unbiased estimator of the covariance of j/q and Xq (from equation

(14.5)).
244 Chapter 15

Notes
1. If Mt = Mo, then from equations of the type (15.20), the estimator of the
universe ratio R =Y/X becomes

2. If in addition, the same number of sample units mo is selected in the sample

fsu’s, then the design becomes self-weighting and

(15.31)

i.e. the ratio of the sample totals.

15.2.6 Estimation of the means of a study variable

(a) Estimation of the mean per first-stage unit. In two-stage srs, the uni­
verse mean per first-stage unit Y (defined by equation (15.4)) is estimated
by

(15.32)
N n n
i.e. the average of the unbiased estimators of the fsu totals Y{.
Note the similarity of the structures of the universe value and its esti­
mator in srs.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of ÿ is

(15.33)

2. (defined by equation (15.14)) is the unbiased estimator of the

where s(i)
variance of j/q .

(b) Estimation of the mean per second-stage unit. Two situations may
arise: (i) the total number of ssu’s Mj is known for all the N fsu’s, the total
being Mi; (ii) the total number of ssu’s is known only for the n sample
fsu’s, after these n first-stage units are enumerated for the list of ssu’s.

(i) Unbiased estimator. When the total number of ssu’s in the universe
is known, namely, Mi, then the unbiased estimator of the universe
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 245

mean per second-stage unit Y (defined by equation (15.5)) is obtained on

dividing the unbiased estimator ?/q by Mi, namely

(15.34)

and the unbiased estimator of the variance of this sample estimator y is

obtained on dividing (as given by equation (15.14)) by Mi'j , i.e.

4=<•/(£>•) (i5 35)

Notes
1. If all the fsu’s are known to have the same number of ssu’s, i.e. if Af, = Mo,
then y becomes (from equations (15.20) and (15.34)),

V= J/o/^^o = (15.36)
.= 1 j=i
i.e. the simple mean of means (see (iii) of this section).
2. If, in addition, a fixed number mo of ssu’s is selected in the sample ssu’s
then from equations (15.21) and (15.34) the design becomes self-weighting
and y becomes

V = yo/NMo = y^y^yo/nmo (15.37)

.=i j = i
3. In crop surveys, if the design is two-stage srswr with villages as first-stage
units, and fields as the second-stage units, and the total geographical area
is A, and yij denotes the area under a particular crop in the ijth sample
field, then the proportion of the area under the crop in the universe is
estimated unbiasedly by
yo/A (15.38)

and its sampling variance by

¿./X2 (15.39)

Similarly, if itJ denotes the yield of a crop in the ijth sample field, then the
average yield per field is estimated unbiasedly by an equation of the type
(15.34) and its variance by an equation of the type (15.35). Similar consid­
erations apply when the total number of fields in the universe (J^ is
known.
246 Chapter 15

(ii) Ratio estimator. When the total number of ssu’s is known only
for the n sample fsu’s, the unbiased estimator of universe number of ssu’s
Mx is obtained from the sample. In two-stage srs, the average number
of ssu’s in the sample fsu’s,

^Mt/n

is multiplied by the total number N of fsu’s to provide the unbiased esti­

mator, thus,
n

mo = N $2 Mifn
This can also be derived from the estimating equations of section 15.2.3
by putting yij — 1 for the selected sample units. Thus putting yX] = 1 in
equation (15.12), we get as the unbiased estimator of the total number of
ssu’s, obtained from the ¿th sample fsu,

* — N Mxmx/ mi = N Mi
m

and the combined unbiased estimator (from equation (15.13))

An unbiased estimator of the variance of is (from equation (15.14))

= 52(mi - mo)2/n(” - 1)
[M, - (S" M,/n)]2
(15.44)
n(n — 1)

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe mean, Y, is

from equation (15.27), the ratio

r = Z/o/^o

A variance estimator of r is (from equation (15.28))

where
n
sy-om* = ~ Vo)(mi - m^/ntn - 1) (15.47)
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 247

is an unbiased estimator of the covariance of t/g and m,Q.

Note: In crop surveys, even when the total geographical area or the total number
of farms in the universe is known, in estimating the proportion of area under a
particular crop, or the average yield per field, estimating equations of the ratio
type, namely (15.27) and (15.45) respectively, may be used (see part (iv) of this
section).

(iii) Unweighted mean of means. In estimating means, a third estimator

- the simple (unweighted) mean of means - may be used. Denoting by yt
the mean yii/m^ this third estimator is
n n m,
yij/nmi (15.48)
t=i j = i

This is a biased estimator, unless all the Afts are the same (see note 1 to
(i) of this section) or the design is self-weighting.

(iv) Comparison of the estimators. Of the three estimators, only the

estimator given by equation (15.34) is unbiased. However, this estimator
can be used only if the total number of ssu’s in the universe is known,
and even then its sampling variance is likely to be high. On the other
hand, the ratio-type estimator, given by equation (15.45), although biased,
is consistent. The third estimator, the simple mean of means, is neither
unbiased nor consistent; however, if it is known that the number of ssu’s
(Afi) in the fsu’s does not vary considerably and there is no appreciable
correlation between Mi and the study variable, this estimator would be
the most efficient. Crop surveys in India have shown the absence of any
such correlation, but the specific situations should be considered for other
studies.

15.3 Two-stage srs: Estimation for sub-universes

As for single-stage srs (section 2.12), the unbiased estimator of the total of
the values of the study variable in the sub-universe Y' is obtained from the
estimating equation (15.13) by defining

Z/ij — Uij if the sample unit belongs to the sub-universe;

y'ij = 0 otherwise.

An unbiased estimator of the variance of the estimator of the total for

the sub-universe is similarly given by equation (15.14).
248 Chapter 15

15.4 Two-stage srs: Estimation of proportion of units

Let M- be the total number of ssu’s possessing a certain attribute in the

zth fsu (z = 1,2,..., TV); the total number of such ssu’s in all the N fsu’s is
N
(15.49)

The proportion of such ssu’s with the attribute in the zth fsu in the
universe is

Pi = M'/Mi (15.50)

and the universe proportion is

N . N N , N

In a two-stage srs (as for single-stage srs, see section 2.13), the estimated
total number of ssu’s in the universe with the attribute and its estimated
variance could be obtained respectively from estimating equations (15.13)
and (15.14) by putting = 1 if the sample unit has the attribute, and 0
otherwise.
Thus in an srs if m' of the mt sample ssu’s in the selected zth fsu has
the attribute, then the sample proportion

Pi = m'i/rrii (15.52)

is an unbiased estimator of Pi.

The unbiased estimator of M- is MiPi\ and the unbiased estimator of
the universe number of ssu’s with the attribute, from the zth sam­
ple fsu, is (from equation (15.12))

* = NMiPi
m' (15.53)

The combined unbiased estimator of from all the n sample fsu’s is

(from equation (15.13)) the arithmetic mean

m'^ = ^m':/n = N^MlPl/n (15.54)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of m'o* is (from equation (15.14))

sm‘Q* = - r^o*)2/^(n - 1) (15.55)

Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 249

If the Mi values are known for all the N fsu’s, then the unbiased esti­
mator of the universe proportion P is

(15.56)

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of this estimator is

(15.57)

If Mi is not known, it is estimated by

n
(15.43)

an unbiased estimator of whose variance is given by equation (15.44).

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe proportion
P is then

mo
/ mo = y? MiPi /
* Mi (15.58)

The estimated variance of this estimator is given by an equation of the

type (15.46).

Notes
1. Even if 77 N M, is known, the use of the estimator given by equation (15.58)
may be preferred to that given in equation (15.56) as the former is likely
to more efficient.
2. If all the M, values are known for the universe and are the same, Mo, then
77 N Mi = NMo, and the estimator in equation (15.56) becomes
n
* /N Mp = ^yJ'pi/n=p
m'o (15.59)

i.e. the simple (unweighted) arithmetic mean of the p, sample values.

3. If, in addition, a fixed number mo of ssu’s is selected in the sample fsu’s,
then the design is self-weighting and the estimator (15.59) becomes
n n
p=^P,/n=^2 m't/nmo (15.60)

i.e. the sample number of units possessing the attribute divided by the
total number of sample units.
250 Chapter 15

An unbiased estimator of the variance of p (equation (15.59) or (15.60)) is

n

4= - p)2/n(n - !) (15.61)

In particular, the unbiased estimator of the variance of p in equation (15.60)

is
2 _ SSm'/n(n — 1)
sp = (15.62)

For an example, see exercise 1(b) of this chapter.

15.5 Two-stage srs: Ratio method of estimation

If information on an ancillary variable is available for all the second-stage

units in the universe, then the universe total
N M,
(15.63)
i=1 j— 1

is also known, where is the value of the ancillary variable of the ijth
universe unit. The unbiased estimator of Z in a two-stage srs is (from
equation (15.13))

(15.64)

and its unbiased variance estimator is (from equation (15.14))

40- = ¿(4 “ 4)2Mn -1)

(15.65)
»=1
where is the value of the ancillary variable in the ijth sample unit and

z- = NMi ^2 zij!rai
The ratio estimator of the universe total Y, using the ancillary infor­
mation, is (from equation (3.6))

V’K = Zy'Jzl = Zr> (15.66)

where

H = Ho/Zo (15.67)
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 251

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the variance of y* R is (from

equations (3.10) and (3.11))
sh = + ris«; _
= z-)/n(n-l)
(SSy,, + r12SSz'-2r1SP</
* (15.68)
Notes
1. If i is another study variable, a ratio estimator x* R for the universe total X
can be similarly defined as y* R. However, in estimating the ratio R = Y/X,
the use of ratio estimators of the totals Y and X leads to the same result as
those of the unbiased estimators, for yR/x * R = Uq/xq (see note 5 to section
3.2).
2. The ratio estimator is likely to be very efficient when (i) the M, values
vary considerably, (ii) the ancillary variable is highly correlated with the
study variable, and (iii) n is large. The ratio estimator of the universe
mean Y, namely Z^q/zq) = Zr\ (where Z, the universe mean of the
ancillary variable is known) will then be more efficient than the other three
estimators of the universe mean, considered in section 15.2.6.

Example 15.1

For the Rural Household Budget Survey in the Shoa province of Ethiopia, 1966-
7, ten geographical strata were formed comprising a number of sub-divisions;
in each stratum, three sub-divisions were selected with equal probability out
of the total number of sub-divisions; in each selected sub-division, of the total
number of households listed by the enumerators, twelve were selected with equal
probability for the inquiry. Although the sample was not specifically designed
to provide estimates of demographic parameters, the example shows the method
of computation for estimating the average age of the household heads in one
particular stratum and its standard error. Table 15.2 gives the required data for
the stratum, which had a total of eighty sub-divisions.
The required computations are shown in Table 15.3, denoting by ytJ the age
of the head of the ijth sample household (i = 1,2,3 for the sample sub-division;
j = 1,2,... ,12 for the sample households); N denotes the total number of sub­
divisions in the stratum = 80, and Mi and m, (= 12) respectively the total and
sample number of households in the ith sample sub-division.
From equation (15.13), the combined unbiased estimate of the total of the
ages of the households heads in the stratum is
n mt

yo = — \ '' yij = 80 x 18, 472.89 years

n m, ¿—J
.=i j=i

(shown at the bottom of column 5), and from equation (15.43), the combined
unbiased estimate of the total number of households in the stratum is
n

77io = N Mi/n = 80 x 392.33 = 31, 387 households

252 Chapter 15

Table 15.2: Total and sample number of households and total ages of the
sample household heads in one stratum: Rural Household Budget Survey,
Shoa Province, Ethiopia, 1966-7

Sample Total no. No. of households Total ages (in years)

sub-division of households in sample of the sample
household heads
(’) (M,) (mt) (£,"■.».,)

i 222 12 474
2 42 12 503
3 913 12 590

(shown at the bottom of column 7).

The estimated average age of household heads is (from equation (15.45))

r = Vo/mo = 18,472.89/392.33 = 47.08 years

An estimate of the variance of r is given by equation (15.46), namely,

sr = (sy* + r sm’ - 2rs^m-)/m0

Since

= 802 x [2, 095, 034, 998 - 1,023, 744, 103]

= 802 x 1,071,290,895

so, from equation (15.14),

s2. = SSy
*
/n(n - 1) = 802 x 1,071,290,895/6

Similarly from equation (15.44)

= *
/n(n
SSy - 1)
= 802 x [884,617 - 461,776]/6
= 802 x 422,841/6,
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 253

Table 15.3: Computation of the average age of household heads and its
sampling variance: data of Table 15.2

Sub- Total no. No. of Total of * =

У
division of households ages of у:2
households in household NM,
sample heads

i M, T71| zLjJl

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

802 X
1 222 12 474 80 X 8769.00 76895.361
2 42 12 503 1760.50 3099.360
3 913 12 590 44889.17 2015040.277

802x
Total 80 x 55,418.67 2 095 035.998
Mean 80 X 18472.89
(J/Ô)

Sub­ For the number of households For the sum

division of products
i *
m = NM, * t2
m * m*
y

(1) (7) (8) (9)

802 X
1 80 X 222 802 x 49 284 1 946 718
2 42 1764 73 941
3 913 833 569 40 983 809

802x
Total 80 x 1177 802 X 884 617 43 004 468
Mean 80 x 392.33
254 Chapter 15

and from equation (15.47)

(E" ">:)/"

y°mo n(n — 1)
= 802[43, 004, 468 — 21, 742, 590]/6
= 802 x 21,262,878/6.
Noting that r = 47.08, 2r = 94.16, and r2 = 2216.5264, we get for s2 (from
equation (15.46))
802[(l, 071, 290, 895 + 937, 238, 070 - 2, 002, 018, 432)/6]
802 x (392.33)2
= (6, 510, 533/6)/153, 925.44 = 7.0494 years2

so that the standard error of estimate of r is sr = 2.66 years, and the estimated
CV of r is 2.66/47.08 = 0.0565 or 5.65 per cent.

Example 15.2

In each of the simple random sample of 4 villages selected in Example 2.3 from the
list of 30 villages (Appendix IV), select a simple random sample (with replace­
ment) of 4 households from the total number of households, and on the basis
of collected data on the households, the total daily income, and the number of
adults (over 18 years of age) of the sample households, estimate for the 30 villages
the total number of persons, the total daily income, the per capita daily income,
and the total number and proportion of adults, along with their standard errors.
The sample data are shown in Table 15.4 and the required computations in
Table 15.5, denoting by y,} the household size, by itJ the daily income, and by
y't} the number of adults, in the tjth sample household (i = 1, 2, 3, 4 for sample
villages numbered 15, 18, 19, and 24; j = 1, 2, 3, 4 for the sample households in
the selected villages); the respective means in the ith sample village are denoted
by j/,, it, and y- (defined by an equation of the type 15.11), N = 30 is the total
number of villages, and M, and mt (= 4) denote respectively the total and the
sample numbers of households in the »th sample village.
From equation (15.13), the combined unbiased estimate of the total number
of persons in the 30 villages is
n mx
yô = — \ \ ytJ = 30 x 108.5 = 3255 persons;
n THi ¿—J
>=i j=i
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 255

Table 15.4: Size, total daily income, number of adults (18 years or over)
and the agreement by the selected adult to an increase in state taxes for ed­
ucation in sample households in each of the four sample villages of Example
2.3: two-stage simple random sample

Household Household Daily Number of Agreement by the

serial size income adults selected adult to an
no. (l/.j) (iij) (^1 increase of state
taxes for education
(q'ij = 1 for Yes;
= 0 for No)

Village serial no. 15; total number of 1households = 20

1 8 $92 4 0
2 4 41 2 1
5 6 55 3 0
14 3 36 2 1

Village serial no. 18; total number of households = 23

13 4 39 2 0
15 5 58 3 1
16 6 61 3 0
21 7 63 4 0

Village serial no. 19; total number of households = 25

5 5 58 2 0
11 5 50 3 0
23 3 33 2 0
24 5 47 2 1

Village serial no. 24; total number of households = 18

3 4 48 2 0
7 6 70 4 0
14 6 49 2 1
15 4 45 2 0
256 Chapter 15

Table 15.5: Computation of the estimated total number of persons, total

and per capita daily income, number and proportion of adults for a two-
stage srs of villages and households: data of Table 15.4

Sample Number of For the number of persons

village households
i Vi = y* = y'2
total sample EZ’l NM,ÿ,
M, mi

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

1 20 4 21 5.25 30 X 105.0 302 X 11 025.00

2 23 4 22 5.50 126.5 16 002.25
3 25 4 18 4.50 112.5 12 656.25
4 18 4 20 5.00 90.0 8 100.00

Total 30 X 434.0 302 x 47 783.50

Mean 30 X 108.5
C'C

Sample For the total daily income

village x* = NM,x, Xi
EJ='1 X'J

(1) (S) (9) (10) (11)

1 $224 $56.00 $30 X 1120.00 302 x 1 254 400.0000

2 221 55.25 1270.75 1 614805.5625
3 188 47.00 1175.00 1 380 625.0000
4 212 53.00 954.00 910 116.0000

Total $30 X 4519.75 302 x 5 159 946.5625

Mean $30 x 1129.9375
(^)

Sample For the number of adults

village y\ = y'
* — NMty'j y1:2
Er='i

(1) (12) (13) (14) (15)

1 11 2.75 30 X 55.00 302 X 3025.0000

2 12 3.00 69.00 8728.5000
3 9 2.25 56.25 3164.0625
4 10 2.50 45.00 2025.0000

Total 30 x 225.25 302 x 12 975.0625

Mean 30 X 56.3125
(yC)
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 257

Table 15.5 (continued)

Sample For the sum of products

village
i y
*
x

(1) (16) (17)

1 302 X 117600.000 302 x 5775.000

2 160 749.875 8728.500
3 132 187.500 6328.500
4 85 860.000 4050.000

Total 302 X 496 397.375 302 x 24 881.625

and from equation (15.14), an unbiased estimate of the variance of y* is

= *
SSy /n(n - 1)
= 302 x [47,783.5 - 47, 089J/12
= 302 x 694.5/12

so that the estimated standard error of j/q is

Sy» = 30 x 7.608 = 228 persons

Similarly, the combined unbiased estimate of the total daily income is
n
io = 22 x*'! n = 30 x $1129-9375 = $33>933

with estimated variance

s2. = 302[5,159, 946.5625 — 5,107, 035.0156]/12

= 302 x 52,911.5469/12

so that the estimated standard error of Xq is

sx*0 = 30 x $66.4025 = $1992

The combined unbiased estimate of the total number of adults is
n

y'Q* = 22 Vo
*/n = 30 x 56.3125 = 1689

with estimated variance of

Sy^» = 302 x [12, 975.0625 - 12, 684.3906]/l2

= 302 x 290.6719/12
258 Chapter 15

so that the estimated standard error of y'o* is = 148.

The estimated daily income per capita is equal to the estimated total daily
income divided by the estimated total number of persons or
r_ _ (30 x 81129.9375)
y; (30 x 108.50)
As
sy* xo = SPyoXo/n(n - Г)
= 302 x [496, 397.3750 - 490, 392, 8750]/12
= 302 x 6004.5/12
the estimated variance of r is (from equation (15.28))
2 /2>22 г» \ / ♦2
= (sx* +r Sy * - 2rsy
* x*)/j/o
302 Г52, 911.5469 + (10.414)2 x 694.5 - 2 x 10.414 x 6004.5
12 (30 x 108.50)2
= 3169.3182/(12 x 11,772.25) = 0.02243495,
so that the estimated standard error of r is sr = 0.1498.
The estimated proportion of adults is equal to the estimated total number of
adults divided by the estimated total number of persons, or
Уо
* (30 x 56.3125)
P= = 0.5190
Уо (30 x 108.50)
As
= 302 x [24,881.625 - 24, 439.625J/12
= 302 x 442/12
the estimated variance of p is, from equation (15.28),
2 = /2.22
sp (svC+p s*
г, x / »2
o~ 2psy* 0y'C"yo

(ЗО2/12)[290.6719 + (0.519)2 x 694.5 - 2 x 0.519 x 442]

(30 x 108.50)2
= 0.0013411
so that the estimated standard error of p is sp = 0.0116.

15.6 Three-stage srs: Estimation of totals, means, ratios and their

variances

15.6.1 Universe totals and means

Extending the notations of section 15.2.1, let the number of third-stage
units (tsu’s) in the jth ssu (J = 1,2,..., A/J of the zth fsu (z = 1,2,..., N)
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 259

be Qij -, the total number of tsu’s in the universe is = i Qij ■ Denot­

ing by Yijk the value of the study variable of the ¿th tsu (k = 1,2,..., QtJ)
in the jth ssu in the ¿th fsu, we define the following universe parameters:
Total of the values of the study variable in the jth ssu in the ¿th fsu:
Qo
= 22 Y'i fc (15.69)
*=i
Mean for the jth ssu in the ¿th fsu:

Yij = Yij/Qij (15.70)

Total for the ¿th fsu:
M,
Y< = YY‘i
(15.71)
3=1

Mean for the ¿th fsu per ssu:

Yi = Yi/Mi (15.72)
Grand total:
N M, Q,j
Y
1=1 j=l k=l
N Mi N

1=1 j = l t=l
N M, N
(15.73)

Mean per fsu:

N
Ÿ = Y/N = ^2 MiYJN (15.74)
Mean per ssu:
N N
(15.75)

Mean per tsu:

__ I / N M, \ n M, / / n M, \
y = y/ (15.76)
260 Chapter 15

Table 15.6: Sampling plan for a three-stage simple random sample with
replacement

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection it

(0 universe sample method probability

1 First-stage N n srswr Equal = 1/N n/N

2 Second-stage M, srswr Equal = 1/Af, m t ¡M,
3 Third-stage QtJ srswr Equal = 1/Qij 7tj /Q\]

15.6.2 Structure of a three-stage srs

Extending the structure of a two-stage srs given in section 15.2.2, the design
will be three-stage srswr if in the zjth sample ssu (z = l,2,...,n; j =
1,2,.
.. ,mt), qij sample tsu’s are selected as an srs (and with replacement)
out of the total tsu’s, the total number of tsu’s in the sample, i.e. the
total sample size is £2tn=1
An example of a three-stage design for a crop survey has been given in
section 14.2. Extending the example of a two-stage design for a household
survey given in the same section, the design will be three-stage srs if a
sample of persons (tsu’s) is selected in the sample households (ssu’s) in the
sample villages (fsu’s), sampling at the three stages being simple random.
Or, to take another example, in an urban household inquiry, where all the
towns constitute the urban area, an srs of towns (fsu’s) may be first selected,
then a sample of blocks (ssu’s) in the selected towns, and finally a sample
of households (tsu’s) in the selected town-blocks. The sampling plan of a
three-stage srs is shown in summary form in Table 15.6.
Let yijk denote the value of the study variable in the ¿th selected tsu
(¿ = 1,2,..., qij) in the ijth sample ssu.

15.6.3 Estimation of the universe total Y and the variance of the sam­
ple estimator

Extending the methods of section 15.2.3 for a two-stage srs, it can be seen
that an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y, obtained form the zth
sample fsu (z = 1,2,..., n) is

mi
NMj y? Qijûij
Vi (15.77)
mi
j=i
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 261

where

1
— T- 52 ^0
* (15.78)
fc=l

is the simple arithmetic mean of the yijk values.

The combined unbiased estimator of Y from all the n fsu’s is the simple
arithmetic mean
1 n
Vo = - > , Pi (15.79)

an unbiased variance estimator of which is, from equation (14.15)

n
= 52^»
* 1) (15.80)

15.6.4 Estimation of the ratio of the totals of two study variables

The extension from the method in the two-stage srs is straightforward.
The unbiased estimator of the universe total X of another study variable,
obtained from the zth sample fsu, is (from equation (15.77))

_ N Mi yA Qi j yA ~ _ N Mi yA _
Xi — mi n / j fc — m« / ^QijXij (15.81)
éi

where is the value of the study variable in the ijfcth sample third-stage
unit, and

xij — xijk /Qij (15.82)

k— 1
The combined unbiased estimator of X, from all the n sample fsu’s, is
(from equation (15.79))

1 n
(15.83)

with an unbiased estimator defined as for s^. in equation (15.80).

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe ratio R =
Y¡X is the ratio of the sample estimators

r = Vg/xq (15.84)
262 Chapter 15

with a variance estimator

(15.85)
where
n

syôxo= 52~ ~ zo)Mn -1) (15.86)

is the unbiased estimator of the covariance of j/q and Xq, from equation
(14.5).

15.6.5 Estimation of the means of a study variable

For the estimation of the means of a study variable per fsu and ssu, see sec­
tion 15.2.6(a) and (b): estimating equations of the same type, but relating
to a three-stage srs, will apply. We consider here the estimating method
for the mean per tsu Y, as defined in equation (15.76).
The estimating procedure will depend on whether the total number
of tsu’s in the universe, namely I2;=’i Qij known or has to be
estimated from the sample.

(a) Unbiased estimator. When the universe number of tsu’s is known,

then the universe mean per tsu Y is estimated unbiasedly by
, / n \
(15.87)

with an unbiased variance estimator

N M,
(15.88)

(b) Ratio estimator. When the universe number of third-stage units

is not known, it is estimated from the sample by putting yijk = 1 in the
estimating equations (15.77) and (15.79), thus from the zth sample fsu

(15.89)

and from all the n sample fsu’s

n

Qo = 52 qi !n (15.90)
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 263

An unbiased variance estimator of Çq is

n

s^0 = 12^»- - 9o)2M”- i) (15.91)

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe mean per

third-stage unit is the ratio

(15.92)

with a variance estimator

(15.93)

where
n

si/o‘?o = J2^ “ ~ Vo)/n(n - 1) (15.94)

is an unbiased estimator of the covariance of j/q and <7o •

(c) Unweighted mean of means. A third estimator of the universe mean

per third-stage unit is the unweighted mean of means
n mx
(15.95)

where

Vij = y ; Vijk/ Qij (15.96)

k=l

This estimator is both biased and inconsistent, unless the design is self­
weighting (see note 3).

Notes
1. Comparison of the estimators. Although biased, the ratio-type estimator is
likely to have a smaller sampling variance than the unbiased estimator: the
latter is, of course applicable only when the number of second- and third-
stage units in the universe are known. The unweighted mean of means will
be both biased and inconsistent, unless the design is self-weighting, but the
observation made in section 15.2.6(b-iv) may also be noted.
264 Chapter 15

2. In crop-surveys, when the total geographical area (A) or the total numbers
of fields Mi) and plots (£2^ are known in the universe,
then in a three-stage srs with villages as the first-stage, fields as the second-
stage, and plots as the third-stage units, the proportion of area under a
particular crop in the universe is estimated unbiasedly by
J/oM (15-97)
where y* is the unbiased estimator of the area under the crop in the uni­
verse, given by equation (15.79), ytJk denoting the area under the crop in
the ijTth sample plot. An unbiased variance estimator of y$ /A is
s^/A2 (15.98)

Sy., the unbiased variance estimator of y^, being defined in equation (15.80).
The average yield per unit area can be estimated similarly; and the average
yield per plot is estimated unbiasedly by equation (15.87), and its unbiased
variance estimator by equation (15.88), yijk denoting the yield of zjTth
sample plot.

15.7 Three-stage srs: Estimation for sub-universes

As for two-stage srs, estimators for sub-universes are obtained from the
general results for the universe by defining
y'.jk = yijk if the sample unit belongs to the sub-universe; and
y'..k = 0 otherwise.

15.8 Three-stage srs: Estimation of proportion of units

Let be the total number of tsu’s in the zjth second-stage unit (? =

..,
1,2,. A; j = 1,2,..., Mi) possessing a certain attribute; the universe
number of such tsu’s is
N M.
<15">
i = lj=l

and the universe proportion of the tsu’s possessing the attribute is

N Mi . N Mi
(15.100)
1= 1 j=1 ' i= 1 j = 1

As for two-stage srs, the estimated number of tsu’s with the attribute
could be obtained by putting y^ = 1, if the sample unit has the attribute,
and 0 otherwise.
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 265

Thus if q'^ of the qij sample third-stage units in the selected ijth ssu has
the attribute, then the unbiased estimator of the total number of tsu’s in
the universe possessing the attribute (^2^ Qiy) from the ¿th sample
fsu is
mt
NMi Qi:i , _ W,-
Qi / > Qii y QijPn (15.101)
mi mi
j=i

and from all the n sample fsu’s

n
/* /* /
Qo = > , Qi ln (15.102)
where
Pij ~ Qij I Qij (15.103)
is an unbiased estimator of the universe proportion P^ = Q'r] /Qij.
An unbiased variance estimator of q'Q* is

= - 0 (15.104)
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe proportion
P is (from the general estimating equation (14.6))
P-q'q/Qq (15.105)
where q$ is defined by equation (15.90).
A variance estimation of p is given by the general estimating equation
(14.7).
Note: If all the QtJ values for the universe are known, then an unbiased estimator
of the universe proportion P is
N M,

(15.106)
i = 1 j' = 1

However, this estimator is likely to have a much larger sampling variance than
the estimator defined in estimation equation (15.105).

15.9 Three-stage srs: Ratio method of estimation

As for two-stage srs (section 15.5), so also for three-stage srs the ratio
method of estimation may be used to increase the efficiency of the esti­
mators. The estimating procedures are the same as in section 15.5 for
two-stage srs, except that for the unbiased estimators of the study and
the ancillary variables and their estimated variances, formulae of the type
(15.79) and (15.80) would be used.
266 Chapter 15

Table 15.7: Computation of the estimated number and proportion of adults

who agree to an increase in state taxes for education: data of Tables 15.4
and 15.5

Sample Number of For the number of adults who agree to an increase

village households in state taxes for education

Col.(4)
Total Sample =
Ai, m, NAf.x
col.(5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

302X 302x
1 20 4 4 1.00 30 X 20.00 400.0000 1100.000
2 23 4 3 0.75 17.15 297.5625 1190.250
3 25 4 2 0.50 12.50 156.2500 703.125
4 18 4 2 0.50 9.00 81.0000 405.000

302x 302X
Total 30 X 58.75 934.8125 3398.375
Mean 30 X 14.6875
)
(^
*

Example 15.3

In example 15.2 are given the number of adults in each of the sample households
in the srs of 4 villages out of the total 30 villages. In each of these sample
households, one adult member was further selected at random from the total
number of adults in the household, and asked if he/she agrees to an increase in
state taxes for education. This information is given also in Table 15.4. Estimate
the total number of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for education
and the proportion they constitute of the total number of adults.
Extending the notation of example 15.1, let QtJ (= y't} in example 15.1) denote
the total number of adults, and qtJ (=1) the number selected for interview in the
ijth sample household (i = 1,2, 3,4; j = 1,2, 3,4). As only one sample third-
stage unit is selected, we can dispense with the subscript k in yijk by which we
had denoted the value of the study variable for tjTth third-stage sample unit.
Following the method of section 15.8, we put q't] = 1, if the selected adult in
the ijth sample household agrees to an increase in state taxes for education, and
0, otherwise. The required computations are shown in Table 15.7.
From estimating equation (15.102), the unbiased estimate of the total number
of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for education is
n

q'o* = ^^q
*
/n = 30 x 14.6875 = 441,
Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 267

where (from equation (15.101)

/*

An unbiased estimate of the variance of is (from equation (15.104))

s2^» = SSq'i
* /n(n — 1)
= 302[934.8125 - 862.8906J/12
= 302 x 71.9219/12

so that the estimated standard error of qo

* is 30 x 2.448 — 73, and the estimated
CV 73/441 = 16.55 per cent.
The estimated proportion of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes
for education is equal to the estimated number of such adults divided by the
estimated total number of adults, or

P = 9o
*/9o = (30 x 14.6875)/(30 x 56.3125)
= 0.2608 or 26.08 per cent

As
/n(n
q
*
= SPq - 1) = 302 x 90.0156/12

the estimated variance of p' is

2 •2
s p’ )/?0
302 71.9212 + (0.2608)2 x 290.6719 - 2 x 0.2608 x 90.0156
TT (30 x 56.3125)2
54.1636
= 0.0014234
12 x 3171.0977

so that the estimated standard error of p' is spi = 0.0377, with estimated CV of
14.46 per cent.

Further reading

Cochran, chapters 10 and 11; Deming (1950), chapter 5A; Hansen et al. (1953),
vols. I and II, chapter 6, 8, 9, and 10; Hedayat and Sinha, sections 7.3 and
7.7; Kish (1965), section 5.3; Murthy (1967), sections 9.3 and 9.10; Singh and
Chaudhury, sections 9.1, 9.2, 9.4, and 9.6; Sukhatme et al. (1984), chapter 8;
Yates, sections 3.8, 6.18, 6.19, and 7.17.
268 Chapter 15

Exercises

1. A hospital has received 1000 bottles of 100 tablets each. A simple random
sample of 6 bottles is taken and from each sample bottle a sample of 20
tablets is taken at random. Given the data in Table 15.8, estimate (a) the
average weight per tablet, (b) the proportion of sub-standard tablets, and
(c) the ratio between the composition of two active substances A and B in
the tablet, with their standard errors (Weber, Example 4.4).
2. Of 53 communes in an area, 14 were selected at random; from each of the
selected communes, of the total number of farms, a sample of farms (1 in
4) was taken also at random. Table 15.9 gives the required information on
the sample, including the total number of cattle in the sample farms in the
selected communes.
(a) Estimate the total number of cattle in the area;
(b) Estimate the average number of cattle per farm, by (i) using the ratio
of the unbiased estimators of the total number of cattle and the total
number of farms; (ii) using the unweighted mean of means; and (iii)
using the additional information that the average number of farms
per commune in the universe is 39.09.

Table 15.8: Total weight, number of sub-standard tablets, and the percent­
age composition of two active substances in 20 sample tablets selected from
100 tablets in 6 out of 1000 bottles received by a hospital

Bottle Total weight (gr) of Number of sub­ Composition in percentage for

number The sample 20 tablets standard tablets the sample of 20 tablets

Substance A Substance B

1 21.8 1 5.42 31.2

2 19.3 0 5 01 30.3
3 22.8 1 5.43 30.5
4 23.1 3 5.43 32.4
5 22.9 1 5.20 31.4
6 19.7 1 5.56 32.9

Total 129.6 7 32.05 188.7

Mean per
tablet 1.08 0.058 0.267 1.572
Raw sum of
squares 2813.68 13 171.3999 5939.91
Raw sum of
products 1008.658

Source: Weber, Example 4.4.

Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 269

Table 15.9: Number of cattle in sample farms

Sample Number of farms Number of cattle

commune
i Total Sample Total in Average M,yt
M, mt sample per farm
2-^J = l V, =

1 46 11 88 8.0000 368.0000
2 39 10 114 11.4000 444.6000
3 25 6 96 16.0000 400.0000
4 23 5 82 16.4000 377.2000
5 32 8 83 10.3750 332.0000
6 31 8 207 25.8750 802.1250
7 60 15 208 13.8667 832.0020
8 28 7 73 10.4286 292.0008
9 59 14 195 13.9286 821.7874
10 24 6 73 12.1667 292.0008
11 84 21 191 9.0952 763.9968
12 30 7 79 11.2857 338.5710
13 64 16 226 14.1250 904.0000
14 66 17 166 9.7647 644.4702

Total 611 151 1881 182.7112 7 612.7540

Source: United Nations Manual, Process 20-22 (adapted).

Estimate also the standard errors of these estimates, assuming sampling

with replacement. (United Nations Manual, Processes 20, 21, and 22, mod­
ified to “with replacement” sampling.)

3. To estimate the total number of beetles in a square plot of land, 250 ft

by 250 ft, the plot was divided into 625 square cells, 10 ft by 10 ft. A
random sample of 10 cells was taken, and for each cell two independent
estimates of the number of beetles were obtained by actual survey of two
randomly located circles within the cell. The data are given in Table 15.10.
(Chakravarti et al., Vol. II, Example 3.4).

For checking and facility of computation, the following are given:

= 4,857,967.5243; = 2313; Af,2 = 31,625;

270 Chapter 15

s2m. = 532 x 4959.2143/182; £"=i (WJM. = 376,746.97;

Sy.m. = 532 x 44, 504.6347/182; y2 = 2644.3481.

Table 15.10: Estimated number of beetles in cells 10 ft by 10 ft obtained

from two randomly located circles within each cell

Cell 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Estimate 1 61 38 25 0 71 95 32 50 10 0
Estimate 2 29 81 32 45 46 69 26 39 24 5
Total 90 119 57 45 117 164 58 89 34 5

Source: Chakravarti et al., Example 3.4.

Note: The figures in Table 15.8 show y*- — Moyij •
CHAPTER 16

Multi-stage Varying Probability

Sampling

16.1 Introduction

As for single-stage, so also for multi-stage sampling, sampling with vary­

ing probabilities - more specifically with probability proportional to size -
would, under favorable conditions, lead to an improvement in the efficiency
of estimators if ancillary information is available for such selection. Al­
though pps sampling can be resorted to in all stages of sampling, in general
it is restricted to the stages that can be covered in offices; the selection
of sample units at other stages, generally the ultimate or the penultimate
stages or both which can readily be sampled either systematically or by
simple random sampling, is left to the enumerators in the field.
The general estimating equations for a multi-stage pps design are given
in section 14.4. In this chapter we will consider first the specific cases of
two-stage and three-stage designs with pps either at all stages or only at
the first stage, and then the special cases of crop surveys.

16.2 General estimating equations: Two- and three-stage pps designs

16.2.1 Two-stage pps design

The structure of a two-stage pps is given in Table 16.1. In the first stage, a
sample of n units is selected with pps (and replacement) from N units, the
initial probability of selection of the ¿th first-stage unit (i = 1,2,... ,7V)
being
7T,' = ZijZ (16.1)
where z, is the value (“size”) of an ancillary variable, Z = zi being
known. In each of the n first-stage sample units (fsu’s) thus selected, a

271
272 Chapter 16

Table 16.1: Sampling plan for a two-stage pps sample design with replace­
ment

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(0 universe sample method probability

1 First-stage N n ppswr 7T, = Z,/Z n7Tj

2 Second-stage m, ppswr ij = w.j/IV,

sample of mi second-stage units (ssu’s) is selected with pps (and replace­

ment) from the Mi units, the (initial) probability of selection of the jth ssu
(j = 1,2, ■ • ■ , Aft) being
TFij = Wij/Wi (16.2)

where is the value of another ancillary variable and ITt = £2^ u>ij is
known.
The universe totals and means are defined as for a two-stage srs in
section 15.2.1.
If yij is the value of the study variable in the jth selected ssu (j =
1,2,, mi) in the zth selected fsu (i = 1,2,... ,n), then from the general
estimating equation (14.13), or an extension from single-stage pps to two-
stage pps in the same manner as was done for srs in section 15.2.3(a), it
will be seen that an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y of the study
variable, obtained from the zth sample fsu, is

(16.3)

and the combined unbiased estimator of the universe total Y from all the
n sample fsu’s is

= (164)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of i/q is (from equation (14.15))

n
sy* 0 = E^ -yo)2M™- 1) (16.5)

Estimators of the means of study variables, and the ratio of two totals
follow directly from the fundamental theorems of section 14.4.
Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 273

Notes
1. Sampling variance of the estimator r/o ■ The sampling variance of y* in
ppswr at both stages is

(16.6)

which is estimated unbiasedly by s2., defined by equation (16.5).

2. If the same ancillary “size” variable is used for pps in both the stages, i.e.
if 7r, = Zt/Z, and also idj = z^/Zi (note that z, = Z, in our notation),
then estimating equation (16.3) simplifies to

(16.7)

and estimating equation (16.4) becomes

(16.8)

3. If, in the above case, a fixed number mo of ssu’s is selected in each sample
fsu, then estimating equation (16.7) becomes

(16.9)

and estimating equation (16.8) becomes

n vn0
*
y z y- y±
(16.10)
nmo z,j

The ratio Y/Z is then estimated unbiasedly by

« n mo
^ = —(leu)
Z nmo Zs zt]
i.e. by the simple (unweighted) mean of the ratios ytj/zt3. This result is
particularly useful in crop surveys (see section 16.5).

16.2.2 Three-stage pps design

The sampling plan for a three-stage pps sample design is given in Table 16.2.
The universe totals and means are defined as for a three-stage srs in section
15.6.1. If yijk is the value of the study variable in the ¿th selected third-
stage unit (tsu) of the jth selected ssu of the ¿th selected fsu (? = 1,2,.. ., n;
j — 1,2,... ,771,; k = 1,2,...,qij) in a three-stage pps sample, then from
274 Chapter 16

Table 16.2: Sampling plan for a three-stage pps sample design with replace­
ment

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection /t

(0 universe sample method probability

1 First-stage N n ppswr 7T, = Z{/Z nir,

2 Second-stage Mx ppswr 7rtJ = Wi}/Wx mx7txj
3 Third-stage Q ij 9l J ppswr TTtjk —

the general estimating equation (14.13) or an extension from the case of

the two-stage pps design, it will be seen that an unbiased estimator of the
universe total Y of the study variable, obtained from the ¿th selected fsu,
is
1 m, 1 q.j
y*
1
yijk —
1 y^ 1 y' yijk
/1/2/3 7rimi j=1 k = 1 Itijk

ZW,^ Vjj y4yi;t

(16.12)
ZiTTii Wijqij Vijk

where Z = zp, Wi = wi, and Vij = Y?'3 vijk-

The combined unbiased estimator of the universe total Y from all the
n sample fsu’s is

yo = ~-^yi (16.13)

with an unbiased variance estimator

n

st’ = ~ ^o)2M” - 1) (16.14)

Estimators of the means of study variables and the ratio of two totals
follow directly from the fundamental theorems of section 14.4.

Note: As for two-stage pps sampling, so also for three-stage sampling, great
simplifications result if the same ancillary (“size”) variable is used for selection
in all three stages, i.e. if
7Tt = Zx/Z 7Ttj — ZXjjZx T^ijk — Ztjk/Zij (16.15)
(In our notation, zx = Z, and zX} = ZXJ). This is particularly useful in crop
surveys, as will be seen in section 16.5.
Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 275

Table 16.3: Sampling plan for a two-stage sample design with pps sampling
at the first-stage and srs at the second-stage

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(<) universe sample method probability

1 First-stage N n ppswr 7T, = Z,/Z 717^

2 Second-stage M, m, srswr Equal = 1/M, mt /Mt

16.3 Two-stage design with pps and srs

16.3.1 General case

As mentioned in section 16.1, from operational and technical considerations
in a two-stage design, the first-stage units may be selected with pps, and
the second-stage with srs (or systematically). The sampling plan for such
a design is given in Table 16.3.
An unbiased estimator of the universe total Y of a study variable, ob­
tained from the zth selected fsu, is (from the general estimating equation
14.13 or from the combination of sections 16.2.1 and 15.2.3)

(16.16)

where
m,
yi = ^2yij/mi (16.17)
>=i

is the unbiased estimator of the mean T, = Yi/Mi in the zth sample fsu
(as sampling is simple random), and zr, — ZijZ is the (initial) probability
of selection of the zth fsu.
The combined unbiased estimator of Y from all the n sample fsu’s is
the arithmetic mean

(16.18)

with an unbiased estimator of the variance of z/J

n
sv0’= 52^«
* - 3/o)2m« -1) (16.19)
276 Chapter 16

Estimators of the ratio of the totals of two study variables, their means
etc. as also of their variances follow from the fundamental theorems in
section 14.4, and will be illustrated by an example.

Example 16.1

In each of the four sample villages selected out of 30 villages with probability
proportional to the previous census population in Example 5.2, select a simple
random sample of 4 households each from the total number of households in the
villages, and on the basis of the collected data on household size, the total daily
income and the number of adults (over 18 years of age) of these sample households
(given in Table 16.4), estimate for the 30 villages the total number of persons,
the total and per capita daily income, and the proportion of adults, along with
their standard errors.
The required computations are shown in Table 16.5, denoting by the yt} the
household size, by ztJ the daily income, and by y't] the number of adults in the
jth sample household of the ith sample village (i = 1,2,3,4 for sample villages
numbered 5, 6, 11, and 18 respectively; j = 1,2,3,4). The means in the ith
sample villages are denoted by yt, z,, and y{ respectively, defined by equations of
the type (16.17).
N = 30 is the total number of villages, and M, and mt (= 4) denote respec­
tively the total and the sample numbers of households in the ith sample village.
From equation (16.18), the combined unbiased estimate of the total number
of persons in the 30 villages is y£ = 72” y*
/n = 3,349 (shown at the bottom of
column 7 of Table 16.5). An unbiased variance estimate of y* is (from equation
(16.19))
s2y, = (45,056,019.02 - 44, 870, 538.61)/12 = 15,456.70
Similarly, the combined unbiased estimate of the total daily income is Zq —
72n z* /n — $33,548 (shown at the bottom of column 11 of Table 16.5), and the
combined unbiased estimate of the total number of adults is
n

y'o
* = J? y'*! n = 1930
(shown at the bottom of column 15 of Table 16.5) with an unbiased variance
estimate 11,916.32.
The estimated daily income per capita is, from equation (14.6), the estimated
total daily income divided by the estimated total number of persons, or

T = To/yl = $10.02

As
= (450,668,357 - 449, 446, 581)/12 = 101,814.67
the estimated variance of r is (from equation (14.7))

sr = (4; + r2s2. - 2rSj/.I. )/i/o2 = 0.00961286

Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 277

Table 16.4: Size, total monthly income, number of adults (18 years or
over) and agreement by the selected adult to an increase of state taxes for
education in the srs of the sample of households in each of the four sample
villages of Example 5.2 selected with probability proportional to previous
census population

Household Household Total daily Number of Agreement by

serial size income adults the selected adult
no. Vo to an increase of
state taxes for
education
= 1 for Yes;
= 0 for No)

Village serial No. 5

10 4 $37 3 0
14 5 53 3 0
20 4 40 2 1
23 5 48 3 0

Village serial No. 6

4 6 52 3 0
5 5 42 2 1
15 3 35 2 0
17 6 60 4 0

Village serial No. 11

2 4 45 2 1
4 6 69 3 0
10 5 46 3 0
13 6 57 3 0

Village serial No. 18

3 5 60 3 0
12 5 43 3 1
18 5 52 3 0
20 6 65 4 0
 Table 16.5: Computations of the estimated total number of persons, total
and per capita monthly income, number and proportion of adults for a
two-stage design: data of Table 16.4

Sample Reciprocal Number Af|/7r,t For the number of persons

village of of Vi ~ y* = y.
i probability house­ ■> Ej=i (M./pi,)i/,
1/t, holds y.j/m.
M,
(1) (2) (3) (4) (S) (6) (7) (8)

1 30.5978 24 734.35 18 4.50 3304.58 10 920 248.98

2 43.3077 17 736.23 20 5.00 3681.15 13550 865.32
3 39.0972 15 586.46 21 5.25 3078.92 9 479 748.37
4 27.5980 23 634.75 21 5.25 3332.44 11 105 156.35

Total 13397.09 45056019.02

Mean 3349.27
(!/S)

Sample For the total daily income

village — r,• = * 2
x
i Ej='l r,J m, (A/,/*
-,)£,

(1) (9) (10) (H) (12)

1 $178 $44.50 $32 678.58 1 067 890 244

2 189 47.25 34 786.87 1210127368
3 217 54.25 31 815.46 1 012 224 768
4 220 55.00 34911.25 1 218 793 631

Total $134 192.16 4 509 036 011

Mean $33 548.04
(^)

Sample For the number of adults For the sum of products

village y. = * =
V y',
* 2 y
* x* y'y'’
i E,=i EZ’i y'ni m, (M,

(1) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18)

1 11 2.75 2019.19 4 077128.26 108315.768 6 672 574.89

2 11 2.75 2024.63 4 099 126.64 128 055.687 7452 966.72
3 11 2.75 1612.76 2 600 994.82 97957.256 4 965 559.02
4 13 3.25 2062.94 4255 721.44 116 339.646 6 874 623.77

Total 7719.32 15032971.16 450 668.357 25 965 724.40

Mean 1929.88
«)

t Also the estimated number of households (/i

*) in Table 5.7.
Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 279

Similarly, the estimated proportion of adults is the estimated total number of

adults divided by the estimated total number of persons, or
P = Vo
*/yo = 0.5762
and the estimated variance of p is
p = (s
s2 /.
* +P2^0* - 2psy.^.)/7/o2 = 0.0005643645
as
Sy.y/« = (25965724.40 - 25 854 125.48)/12 = 9299.91 .

16.3.2 First-stage units selected with probability proportional to the

number of second-stage units
In a two-stage sample design, with pps sampling at the first-stage and srs
at the second, the estimating procedure becomes simpler if for the pps
sampling at the first stage, the “size” is the number of second-sage units,
i.e. if the fsu’s are selected with probability proportional to the number of
ssu’s contained in each fsu: this assumes, of course, that the information is
available for all the fsu’s in the universe.
In this case, the (initial) probability of selection of the ¿th fsu (z =
1,2,..., TV) is
7Ti = Mi/M

where M — Mi is the total number of second-stage units in the uni­

verse.
Estimating equation (16.16) then becomes
2/7 = M^Mi/M^yi = My, (16.20)
and the combined unbiased estimator of Y from all the n sample fsu’s, given
by equation (16.18), becomes

Vo = = = MV (16.21)
n L' n '
where
n
y-^ydn (16.22)

is the simple (unweighted) mean of the yi values.

An unbiased estimator of the mean Y = Y/M is
n
My/M = y = y^yj/n (16.23)
280 Chapter 16

which is the simple (unweighted) mean of the ?/, values, and an unbiased
estimator of the variance of y is
n
(16.24)

Note: If m, — mo, a constant, then y* = M y,/mo, i.e., the design will be

self-weighting (see Example 16.2).

Example 16.2

In an area there are 315 schools with a total of 27,215 students. Eight schools
were first selected with probability proportional to the number of students, and
in each selected school, 50 students were selected at random. Table 16.6 gives for
each school the number of students with trachoma and the number with multiple
scars. Estimate (a) the proportion of student with trachoma, and (b) among
those with trachoma, the proportion with multiple scars (Weber, Example 4.5).
Here N — 315 schools, and M = 27,215 students. As the sample of 8 schools
is selected with probability proportional to the number of students (Af,) and in
each selected school, a sample of students is taken at random, the method of
section 16.3.2 will apply here. The estimating equations are further simplified as
a fixed number mo = 50 of students are selected in the sample schools.
(a) Defining ytJ =1, if the jth sample student in the ith sample school has
trachoma, and ytJ = 0, otherwise (i = 1,2,..., 8; j = 1,2,..., 50), an unbiased
estimate of the proportion of students with trachoma is (from equation (16.23))
n n

y = y ^y,/n = 5 'yt/nmp = 325/(8 x 50) = 0.8125 or 81.25 per cent,

where y, = ytJ.
An unbiased estimate of the variance of y is (from equation (16.24))
n
s? = 57(1/, - y)2/n(n - 1) = (SSy,/mo)/n(n - 1)
= (13,421 - 13, 203.125)/(502 x 8 x 7) = 0.00155625,

so that the estimated standard error of y is Sy — 0.03945 with CV 4.86 per cent.
(b) Similarly, defining = 1, if the ijth sample student has trachoma with
multiple scars, and j/,j — 0, otherwise, an unbiased estimate of the total number
of students with multiple scars is (from equation (16.23))
n

y'Jn =5 y'l/nmo = 55/(8 x 50) = 0.1375

where y't = y'tJ.

Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 281

Table 16.6: Number of students with trachoma and number with multiple
scars among samples of 50 students each selected at random from each of
the 8 schools selected with probability proportional to the total number of
students

School Number of students with trachoma

no.
i Total number Number with multiple scars
/
y> y,

1 40 3
2 31 0
3 47 16
4 41 8
5 43 8
6 36 5
7 39 2
8 48 13

Total 325 55
Raw sum of squares 13,421 591
Raw sum of products 2426

Source: Weber, Example 4.5.

Table 16.7: Sampling plan for a three-stage sample design with pps sam­
pling at the first-stage and srs at the second- and third-stages

Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

universe sample method probability

1 First-stage N n ppswr 7Tt - Z, fZ H7r,

2 Second-stage Mt mi srs Equal = 1/A1, mx/Mt
3 Third-stage Qtj Qij srs Equal — \ / Q ij
282 Chapter 16

An unbiased estimate of the variance of y' is (from equation (16.24))

Sg, = y?(y,' - y')2/n(n - 1) = (SSy,7mo)/n(n - 1)

= (591 - 378.125)/(502 x 8 x 7) = 0.00152054

The estimated proportion of students with multiple scars among those with
trachoma is r' = y /y — 55/325 = 0.1692 or 16.92 per cent.
An estimate of the variance of r' is, from the general estimating equation
(14.T),
= (sj. + r'2s2s - It'Sss')lil2
Since

syy‘ = ~ - y)/n(n ~ !) = (SPy.yt/m2Q)/n{n - 1)

= (2426 - 2232.125)/(502 x 8 x 7) = 193.875/(502 x 8 x 7)
therefore
2 212.875 + (0.1692)2 x 217.875 - 2 x 0.1692 x 193.875/(502 x 8 x 7)
Sri
(325/(8 x SO)]2
212.975 + 6.237543 — 65.607300 _
3252 x 7/8
so that the estimated standard error of r' is 0.04075, with CV of 24.08 per cent.

16.4 Three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs

In this section will be extended the method of section 16.3.1 to a three-stage

sample design with pps sampling at the first stage and srs at the second
and the third stages. The sampling plan is shown in Table 16.7.
An unbiased estimator of the universe total Y of a study variable, ob­
tained from the ¿th selected fsu, is (from the general estimating equation
16.12)

(16.25)
;=1fc=l

where yijk is the value of the study variable in the £th sample tsu in the
jth sample ssu in the ¿th sample fsu 7 = l,2,...,n; j = l,2,...,mt;
k = 1,2,.. . ,gij) and 7r, is the (initial) probability of selection of the ¿th
first-stage unit in the universe 7 = 1,2,..., TV).
The combined unbiased estimator of Y from all the n sample fsu’s is
the arithmetic mean

(16.26)
 Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 283

with an unbiased variance estimator

n
sy*o = !) (16.27)

Estimators of the ratio of the totals of the values of two study vari­
ables, their means etc. as also their variances follow from the fundamental
theorems in section 14.4 and will be illustrated with an example.

Example 16.3

In Example 16.1 are given the data on the number of adults in the srs of 4
households in each of the 4 sample villages, selected with probability proportional
to the previous census population. In each of these sample households, one adult
member was further selected at random from the total number of adults in the
household, and asked if he/she agrees to an increase in state taxes for education.
This information is given also in Table 16.4. Estimate the total number of adults
who agree to an increase in state taxes for education and the proportion they
constitute of the total number of adults.
Extending the notation of Example 16.1, let QtJ (= y'tJ in Example 16.1)
denote the total number of adults, and qi3 (= 1) the number selected for interview
in the ijth sample household (i = 1,2, 3,4; j = 1,2, 3,4). As only one sample
third-stage unit is selected, we can dispense with the subscript k in yt]k by which
we had denoted the value of the study variable for the ijfcth third-stage sample
unit.
We define q't] = 1, if the selected adult in the ijth sample household agrees
to an increase in state taxes for education, and 0 otherwise.
The computations are shown in Table 16.8.
From equation (16.26), the unbiased estimate of the total number of adults
who agree to an increase in state taxes for education is q^ * = */»
9,' = 376
(shown at the bottom of column 4 of Table 16.8), where

i*
9.

from equations (16.25) and (16.26)

An unbiased variance estimate of q'o* is (from equation (16.27))

= (582, 950.43 - 565, 947.77)/12 = 1,416.8883

so that the estimated standard error of q^

* is 37.64, and the estimated CV is
10.00 per cent.
The estimated proportion of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes
for education equals the estimated total number of such adults divided by the
estimated total number of adults, or
284 Chapter 16

Table 16.8: Computation of the estimated number and proportion of adults

who agree to an increase in state taxes for education: data of Tables 16.4
and 16.5

Sample < =
village E”', Q<><, (M./ttOx
i col.(3)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

1 2 0.50 367.18 134,821.15 714,406.18

2 2 0.50 368.12 135,512.33 745,306.80
3 2 0.50 293.23 85,983.83 472,909.61
4 3 0.75 476.06 226,633.12 982,083.22

Total 1,505.59 582,950.43 2,914,705.81

Mean 376.15
-

t q* ( = y(* in Table 16.5) denotes the estimates total number of adults.

*/<lo
P' = q'o = 376.15/1,929.88 = 0.1949
since
s . = (2,914,705.81 - 2, 903,602.92)/12 = 11, 102.89
the estimated variance of p' is

pl = (s2,,. +p'Vq. - 2p/5q.g/.)/<7o2 = 0.0004051344,

s2

so that the estimated standard error of p' is 0.02013, with estimated CV of 10.33
per cent.

16.5 Special cases of crop surveys

16.5.1 Introduction
As observed in the notes to section 16.2.1 and 16.2.2, great simplifications
result if the same “size” variable is used in all the stages of a multi-stage
pps sample. This is particularly useful in crop surveys when ancillary in­
formation is available on each of the universe units.
Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 285

16.5.2 Area surveys of crops

When the areas of all the fields in the universe are known, let the sample de­
sign for estimating the total area under a crop be pps two-stage with villages
as the fsu’s, selected with probability proportional to total (geographical)
area, and fields as the ssu’s, selected with probability proportional to their
areas: the fields may be selected from a list of fields showing the areas or
from a cadastral map of the fields, following the procedure of section 5.4.
We further assume that the same number m0 of fields is selected in each
sample village.
If atJ is the total area and is the area under the crop in the zjth
sample field (i = 1, 2,..., n; j = 1,2,..., mo), then an unbiased estimator
of the total area under the crop, from the ¿th sample village, is (from
equation (16.9))

(16.28)

and from all the n sample villages is (from equation (16.10))

n n
(16.29)

where pij = yij/aij is the proportion of the area under the crop in the zj th
sample field and A the total area in the universe

Pi = ^Pij/mn (16.30)

is an unbiased estimator of the proportion of the area under the crop in the
¿th sample village; and
n n mo
(16.31)

is the simple (unweighted) average of the sample pij values and an unbiased
estimator of the proportion of the area under the crop in the universe.
An unbiased variance estimator of p is
n
(16.32)

and an unbiased variance estimator of t/q = Ap is

(16.33)
286 Chapter 16

16.5.3 Yield surveys of crops

Similar considerations apply for estimating the yield of a crop. If rtJ —
Xij/dij is the yield per unit area in the ijth sample field, then an unbiased
estimator of the total yield in the universe is

x* = Ar (16.34)

where
n m0
rij/nrriQ (16.35)

is the simple average of the sample rtJ values and an unbiased estimator of
the average yield per unit area in the universe. Unbiased variance estima­
tors of Eq and r are given respectively by estimating equations of the types
(16.33) and (16.32).
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the yield rate per unit of
crop area is the ratio
H THo t n m0
®o/s/o = 52 52 / 52 52pi> (16.36)
a variance estimator of which is given by the general estimating equation
(14.7).

Notes
1. If one crop cut of prescribed size and shape is located in the selected fields
at random and the yield rate obtained from it, then although the design
becomes three-stage, the same estimating procedure as above will apply.
2. In the far less common situation when the crop areas of all the fields in the
universe are known, the villages and fields may be selected with probability
proportional to their respective crop areas, and the total crop yield in the
universe will be estimated by

io = Yr (16.37)

where

f' = r-j/nmo (16.38)

is an unbiased estimator of the average yield per unit of crop area; r'i} =
ii}/Vij is the yield per unit of crop area in the ijth sample field; and Y is
the total crop area in the universe. Unbiased variance estimators of Iq and
f' are given respectively by equations of the types (16.33) and (16.32).
Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 287

3. As the area of a crop is likely to have a high positive correlation with

the total area, sampling with probability proportional to total area (ppa)
is likely to be moTe efficient than srs. However, yield rates may not be
highly correlated with the area of the field, and in a crop survey with ppa
sampling, estimators of crop areas will generally be more efficient than an
srs, but not necessarily so for estimators of crop yields. In that case, for
estimating the yield rate, a biased estimator of the unweighted mean of
means may be used, after examining from a pilot survey that the bias is
not appreciably high; some Indian surveys have shown that it was safe to
use such biased estimators there.

Further reading
Cochran, section 11.9; Hansen et al. (1953), vol. I, sections 8.6 and 8.14, vol.
II, section 8.1; Hedayat and Sinha, sections 7.1-7.4 and 7.7; Murthy (1967), sec­
tions 9.4, 9.5, 9.8c, 9.9, and 9.10; Singh and Chaudhary, sections 9.8 and 9.10;
Sukhatme et al. (1984), 9.1, 9.2, 9.5-9.7, 9.9, and 9.10; Yates, sections 6.19, 7.17,
and 8.11.

Exercises

1. Of 53 communes in an area, 14 were selected with probability proportional

to the area of the communes (and with replacement), and in each selected
commune, farms were randomly selected using a sampling fraction of |.
For each selected commune, the probability of its selection, the total and
the sample number of farms, and the number of cattle in the sample farms
are given in Table 16.9. Estimate the total number of cattle in the area
with its standard error (United Nations Manual Process 24).
2. Of the 53 communes in the area, 14 were selected with probability propor­
tional to the number of farms in the communes (and with replacement),
and in each selected commune, farms were randomly selected using a sam­
ple fraction of For each selected commune the total number of farms
(Mi), the number of sample farms (mi), and the number of cattle in the
sample farms are given in Table 16.10. Estimate the toted number of cattle
in the area with its standard error; the total number of farms in the area
is M = Mi = 2072 (United Nations Manual Process 23).
3. For estimating the total number of cultivators (Y), the sample of n villages
is selected from the N villages in the universe with ppswr, the “size” being
the current number of households (Mi), and from each sample village mo
households are selected circular systematically. The number of cultivators
in each of the nmo sample households is determined. Suggest an unbiased
estimator of Y and obtain an unbiased variance estimator of it (Murthy,
Problem 9.8).
(Hint: See section 16.3.2).
Table 16.9: Number of cattle in sample farms selected at random from
sample communes, selected with probability proportional to area

Sample Probability of Total number No. of farm Number of cattle

commune selection of farms samples in sample farms
t ”, M, 771.1 2^j=iVu

1 0.0026 19 5 14
2 0.0098 23 5 82
3 0.0146 31 8 207
4 0.0167 40 10 124
5 0.0187 54 13 113
6 0.0187 54 13 113
7 0.0220 39 10 114
8 0.0249 55 14 242
9 0.0258 46 12 203
10 0.0298 83 20 256
11 0.0362 74 19 272
12 0.0370 70 17 131
13 0.0465 60 15 208
14 0.0465 60 15 208

Source: United Nations Manual, Process 24.

Table 16.10: Number of cattle in sample farms selected at random from

sample communes, selected with probability proportional to the number of
farms

Sample Total no. of No. of farm Number of cattle

commune farms samples in sample farms
i Mt 771, LJ=i^

1 13 3 30
2 15 3 58
3 19 5 14
4 28 7 73
5 39 10 162
6 41 11 88
7 46 12 102
8 46 12 102
9 48 12 203
10 51 13 134
11 59 14 195
12 74 19 272
13 83 20 242
14 83 20 242

Source: United Nations Manual, Process 23.

CHAPTER 17

Size of Sample
and Allocation to Different Stages

17.1 Introduction

In a multi-stage design, in addition to the determination of the total sample

size, there arises the problem of its allocation to the different stages: this
requires a knowledge of the variability of the data and the unit costs at the
different stages. These will be considered in this chapter, especially relating
to a two-stage design; those for a three-stage design will also be indicated.
For a two-stage design, the problem and its treatment are similar to
those for single-stage cluster sampling dealt with in Chapter 6 and section
7.6. As noted in section 6.1, single-stage cluster sampling may be considered
to be a special case of two-stage sampling with all the second-stage units
being surveyed in the selected first-stage units.

17.2 Two-stage design

17.2.1 Variance function

For simplicity, we shall consider a two-stage design with n (> 2) of fsu’s

being selected (with replacement) out of the N total fsu’s with equal or
varying probabilities, and a fixed number mo (> 2) of ssu’s being selected
(with replacement) out of the Mi total ssu’s in the ¿th selected fsu with
equal or varying probabilities.
We have seen in sections 15.2.3 (for a two-stage srs) and 16.2.1 (for
a two-stage pps) that if y* is an unbiased estimator from the ¿th sample
fsu = 1,2,... ,n) of the universe total Y, then the combined unbiased

289
290 Chapter 17

estimator of Y from all the n sample fsu’s is

(171)
with an unbiased variance estimator

- Po)2/n(n - 1) (17.2)
It is also seen from equations (15.22) and (16.6) that the sampling vari­
ance of ?/o in both srs and pps sampling (with replacement at both stages)
is of the form
Vi V?
V= — + — (17.3)
n nmQ
The value of the study variable of the second-stage unit is considered to
be the sum of two independent parts. One term, associated with the fsu’s,
has the same value for all the ssu’s in an fsu, and varies from one fsu to
another with variance
2 - V)2
Vi №cr62 = N in srs (17.4)
N
» V2
in ppswr (17.5)

where
m,
(17.6)
7=1

is the universe total for the ¿th fsu, and

N
Y = Y/N = (17.7)
is the universe mean per fsu and the variance between the fsu’s.
The second term in equation (17.3), which serves to measure the dif­
ferences between the ssu’s, varies independently from one unit to another
with variance

V2 =
N __ \2

= -VZ>.2 J=1 insrs (178)

N , / M. V2

= in pps (17.9)
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Stages 291

where is the variance between the ssu’s within the ¿th fsu, and Y, the
mean for the ¿th fsu.
Thus, the sample as a whole consists of n independent values of the first
term, and nmo independent values of the second term.

Note: The variance estimator of y$ in estimating equation (17.2) does not explic­
itly take account of the stage-variances; the estimation of the latter is shown in
section 17.2.4.

17.2.2 Cost function

We consider a simple cost function

C = nci + nmoC2 (17.10)

where cx is the average cost per fsu and c% that per ssu. The overhead cost,
not shown in the above cost function, may later be added to C. In general,
the cost per fsu (cj will be greater than that per ssu (02).

17.2.3 Optimum size and allocation

With the above cost and variance functions, the optimum values of n and
mo are those that minimize the variance V for a given total cost C or vice
versa, and are given by

(17.11)
°“x/ÔW
and

(17.12)
1/îiSj + x/Ô^ïï
if the cost is preassigned (from equation (17.10)); or

n= (17.13)
Vx/WVi)
if the variance is preassigned (from equation (17.3)).
The optimum number of ssu’s can also be expressed in terms of the
intra-class correlation coefficient p between the second-stage units

1 - P
m0 = (17.14)
C2 P
292 Chapter 17

Note that this is of the same form as that of (7.37) for the optimal cluster
size.
Equations (17.11) and (17.14) show that a larger sub-sample should be
taken when sub-sampling is relatively inexpensive (ci large in relation to
C2) and the variability between the ssu’s within the fsu’s (V2) is larger than
that between the fsu’s (VS) i.e. the fsu’s are internally heterogeneous.
These equations often lead to the same value of mo for a wide range of
ratios c\lci- Thus a choice of the sub-sampling fraction can often be made
even when information on relative costs is not too definite.

17.2.4 Estimation of stage-variances

We have seen from the fundamental theorems of section 14.4 that if sam­
pling is with replacement at least at the first stage, then the sampling
variance is estimated properly from the estimators obtained from the first-
stage units by estimating equation (14.2); the variability of the data at the
different stages does not enter explicitly in this equation. In estimating the
stage-variances, to avoid the consistent appearance of negative variances
(as it would happen with the “with replacement” sampling when the vari­
ability between the fsu’s is smaller than that between the ssu’s), we assume
that sampling is without replacement at both stages; for simplicity, we also
assume that sampling is simple random, ssu’s being selected in the ¿th
selected fsu’s. The unbiased estimator j/q (estimating equation (17.1)) of
the universe total Y remains the same, but its sampling variance is given
by

V(y;) = №m2(1 - A) + /2i) (17.15)

n n —' mi
where M is the average number of ssu’s per fsu; fi = n/N\ — mi/Mi',
is the variance between the fsu’s and SfC that between the ssu’s within
the ¿th fsu:

1 M' _

J=1

Yii is the value of study variable of the ij'th universe unit (i = 1,2,..., JV;

Y = Y/NM = £M.yi/TVM
5=1
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Stages 293

An unbiased estimator of S^i is

m,
(17.18)

where yij is the value of the study variable of the ijth sample unit (z —
1,2,..., n; j = 1, 2,..., mt) and y{ = Vij/™i-
Denoting by
2 1 =y
(17.19)

where y =■ y^/NM, an unbiased variance estimator of S% is

-M- (17.20)
n \MJ mi
An unbiased estimator of V(z/q) in (17.15) is

№m2(i - /,) i + - V Mf(i - /„) &

(17.21)
n n mi

(1-/1) s2 ■
bwi
(17.22)
n(n — 1)
where y* = NMiy{ is the unbiased estimator of Y from the ¿th sample fsu
(estimating equation (15.12)).

Notes
1. For the estimator of the mean, the stage-variances are obtained by dividing
the components in equations (17.15), (17.21), and (17.22) by N2M2.
2. When Mi = Mo, a constant, and m, = mo is fixed, the unbiased variance
estimator (equation (17.21)) for the total becomes

№M02(l - A) (1 - A)st (17.23)

n n mo
where /2 = mo/Mo', and

= (17.24)

For the variance estimator of the mean, equation (17.23) divided by N2 Mq

becomes

+(17.25)
n nl nmo
294 Chapter 17

3. When Mt = Mo, and m, = mo, unbiased estimators of the stage-variances

can be obtained readily from an analysis of variance of the sample obser­
vations, assuming sampling from infinite universes at both stages. In that
case, the universe variance of y£ is of the form (17.3) and is estimated
unbiasedly by
N2 M2 (mean square between fsu’s)/nmo = N2Mo3b/n (17.26)
where 1 n
mean square between fsu’s = —----- -r / (y, — y)2;
n(n — 1) 1
mo n
yt = ^y.j/mo; and V =
j=i

Unbiased estimators of Vi and V2 in equation (17.3) are then respectively

Vi = N2Mq (mean square between fsu’s
— mean square within fsu’s)/mo (17.27)

V2 N2Mq (mean square within fsu’s) (17.28)

where
1
mean square within fsu’s = ——-—-r >
n H»0
5 (ytJ — y,)2
n(mo — 1)
For the mean, its sampling variance is also of the form (17.3), and is esti­
mated unbiasedly by
(mean square between fsu’s)/nmo (17.29)
and Vi and V2 are estimated unbiasedly by
V (mean square between feu’s
— mean square within feu’s)/mo (17.30)

V2 = mean square within fsu’s (17.31)

4. When sampling is simple random with replacement at the first stage and
simple random without replacement at the second stage, the sampling vari­
ance of yo, the (combined) unbiased estimator of Y, is
N
<r2- = N2M2 â + —V M2(l- f2.) (17.32)
n n ¿-J m,
and being defined by equation (17.16) and (17.17). <7^. is estimated
unbiasedly by s2., defined in equation (17.2).
Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Stages 295

Table 17.1: Analysis of variance

Source of variation Degrees of Mean

freedom square

Between first-stage units 39 634

Between second-stage units
within first-stage units 160 409

Source: Hendricks, pp. 190-191.

Example 17.1

Table 17.1 gives the analysis of variance of a sample of n = 40 from N = 1000

fsu’s and mo = 5 sample ssu’s in each selected fsu (Mo = 50), sampling at both
stages being simple random.
(a) Assuming that sampling has been from infinite universes at both the sages,
estimate unbiasedly the variance of the mean and its components (Hen­
dricks, pp. 190-191).
(b) Given the total cost (excluding overheads) of a survey, C = $6, 000, the
cost of including an fsu in the sample, ci = $50; and the cost of getting the
data from an ssu within each selected fsu, C2 = $10, obtain the optimum
sample numbers of fsu’s and ssu’s within each selected fsu, and the expected
variance of the mean.
(a) From equation (17.29), the unbiased variance estimate of the mean is

(mean squre between fsu’s)/nmo = 634/200 = 3.1700

From equations (17.30) and (17.31),

Vi = (mean square between fsu’s - mean square within fsu’s)/m0

= (634 — 409)/5 = 45, and

V2 = mean square within fsu’s = 409,

so that the components of the variance of the mean are (from equation (17.3))

Vi/n = 45/40 = 1.1250, and V2/nm0 = 409/200 = 2.0450,

totaling 3.1700, as before.

296 Chapter 17

(b) From equation (17.11) the optimum number of ssu’s per sample fsu is

y/(V2Ci) _ y/(409 x 50)

= ^/(45.44) = 6.7
y/(Vic2) ~ y(45 x 10)

or, to the nearest whole number, 7.

From equation (17.10),

n = C/(ci + moc2) = 6000/(50 + 70 x 1) = 50

so that the total sample size is nmo = 50 x 7 = 350 ssu’s.
The estimated (expected) variance of the mean with this sample is

Vi | Vi 45 409
V= — +---- = 0.9 + 1.1686 = 2.0686
n nmo 50 350

Example 17.2

For Example 15.2 relating to a two-stage srs, and assuming sampling without
replacement, estimate the variance of the estimated total number of persons in
the form of expression (17.22). Also obtain an unbiased estimate of S%.
The required computations are shown in summary form in Table 17.2. Taking
Expression (17.22), the first term is, from the data of Example 15.2.

(1-4/30)
n(n — 1) ^2(y.‘ - i/o)2 = 4x3
x 625,050 = 45,142.67,

and the second term is

n 2
— "V M.2(l - /2.) — = — X 790.67 = 5930.02,
n m, 4
so that the estimated variance of the estimated total number of persons (j/q)
is 45,142.67 + 5930.02 = 51,072.69. The difference between the feu’s (villages)
accounts for 45, 142.67/51,072.69 = 88 per cent of this variance and the variability
within the feu’s between the ssu’s (households) for 12 per cent.
The estimated standard error is 226.0, and the estimated CV is 6.94 per cent.
Note that the variance estimated on the basis of a “without replacement”
scheme is, as known, less than that for a “with replacement” scheme in Example
15.2, namely,
n
sj. = J2(y,
* - yoY/n(n - 1) = 625, 050/12 = 52, 087.5

the estimated standard error was 228.2, and the estimated CV 7.01 per cent.
 Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Stages
Table 17.2: Computation of the st age-variances of the estimated total number of persons in Example 15.2,
assuming sampling without replacement

Sample SSyij A/2 A/.2(l -/2.)X MJM^ (Af,/Af)2 (M./M)2X

village
4=
5Sy,,
Ï2i =
mi/Mi s2 ,/m, (1 - /2,)«^,/"».
(m.-lj
(fsu)
t

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

1 14.75 4.916667 0.2000 0.983333 400 393.33 0.9302 0.865272 0.850851

2 5.00 1.666667 0.1739 0.344209 529 182.09 1.0698 1.144472 0.393938
3 3.00 1.000000 0.1600 0.210000 625 131.25 1.1628 1.352104 0.283942
4 4.00 1.333333 0.2222 0.259266 324 84.00 0.8372 0.700904 0.181721

Total 790.67 1.710452

1 M = i (20 + 23 + 25 + 18) — 21.5 households per village.

to
CO
298 Chapter 17

From the first terms of (17.21) and (17.22), we find

2 625,050
Sb = 0.500811
N2M2(n - 1) 416,025 x 3

so that an unbiased estimate of S2 is (from equation (17.20))

n
b - - V(M,2/M)2(l - f2i)s2wi/m, = 0.500811 - 0.427613 = 0.073198
s2
n 4

17.3 Three-stage design

The above procedures can be extended to sample designs with three and
higher stages. Those for a three-stage design are given below: the proce­
dures for higher-stage designs follows from symmetry:

Assume that the sample at the three stages is drawn with varying prob­
abilities and with replacement, the respective numbers being n, mo and
go- Then the universe variance of the estimator (estimating equation
(16.13)) is

where Ky = Xjfc! Yi = \ and Y = is the universe

total. This is of the form

V1 t v2 | V3 (17.34)
n nmo nmoqo

where Vi, V2 and V3 are respectively the variations (1) between the fsu’s,
(2) between the ssu’s within the fsu’s, and (3) between the third-stage
units within the ssu’s, for an estimator based on any of the nmoqo possible
third-stage sample units.
Assuming the simple cost function (neglecting the overhead costs)

C = nci 4- nmoC2 -I- nmoqocs (17.35)

Size of Sample and Allocation to Different Stages 299

where ci is the average cost per fsu, C2 that per ssu, and C3 that per third-
stage unit, the optimum values of mo and qo are obtained as

(17.36)

If the cost is preassigned, the optimum value of n is

n=
(17.37)
\/(^lcl) + \AV2C2) + \/(^3c3)

If the variance is preassigned, the optimum value of n is

vWI) + x/o^) + y/№3) (17.38)

Further reading

Cochran, sections 10.6, 10.7, 11.13, and 11.14; Deming (1950), chapter 5A;
Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and II, chapter 6; Hedayat and Sinha, sections
7.5 and 7.6; Hendricks, chapter 7; Kish (1965), section 5.6; Murthy (1973), sec­
tions 9.3-9.10; Singh and Chaudhary, sections 9.3, 9.4, and 9.7; Sukhatme et al.
(1984), sections 8.3, 8.7, 9.3, and 9.4; Yates, sections 7.17, 8.10.1, and 8.11-8.21.

Exercises

1. In a sample survey for the study of the economic conditions of the popu­
lation, it is proposed to take a two-stage sample with villages as the first-
stage units and mo households per village as second-stage units, sampling
at both the stage units to be with equal probability and with replacement.
The variance of an estimate is V = (T^/n + a2w/nmo, where = 5.2 and
al = 11.2. The cost of the survey is given by C = co + nci + nmoC2, with
co = Rs 600, ci = Rs 160, and C2 = Rs 4. Determine the optimum values
of n and mo for C — Rs 10.000 (Chakravarti et al., Illustrative Example
4.2).
2. For Example 15.2, obtain estimates of the stage-variances for the total daily
income, assuming sampling without replacement.
3. To develop the sampling technique for the determination of the sugar per­
centage in field experiments on sugar beets, ten beets were chosen from each
of 100 plots in a uniformity trial, the plots being the first-stage units. The
sugar percentage was obtained separately for each beet. Table 17.3 gives
the analysis of variance between plots and between beets within plots.
300 Chapter 17

Table 17.3: Analysis of variance of sugar percentage of beets (on a single­

beet basis)

Source of variation Degrees of Mean

freedom square

Between plots (first-stage units) 80 2.9254

Between beets (second-stage units)
within plots 900 2.1374

Source: Snedecor and Cochran, pp. 529-531.

(a) Estimate directly the estimated variance of the mean, and also sepa­
rately its components.
(b) How reliable are the treatment means with 6 replications and 5 beets
per plot? (Snedecor and Cochran, pp. 529-531).
CHAPTER 18

Self-weighting Designs
in Multi-stage Sampling

18.1 Introduction

In this chapter we will discuss the problem of how to make a multi-stage

design self-weighting. The general case will first be covered, followed by the
specific cases of two-stage designs, and sampling for opinion surveys and
marketing research along with the situation where it is desirable to select
a fixed number of ultimate stage units in each of the selected penultimate
stage units.

18.2 General case

Taking the multi-stage design of section 14.4, an unbiased estimator of the

universe total Y of a study variable is

y= = 52 W12 (18.1)
sample ' 1 ' sample

(see also equation (14.13)) where y\2...u is the value of the study variable
in the (12... u)th ultimate stage sample unit, the factor

u 1
TI— = W12 u (18.2)
i
(see also (14.14)) is the multiplier (or the weighting-factor) for the
(12...u)th ultimate-stage unit; and ft = ni2...(t-i)7ri2..4, there being
ni2 (t-i) sample units each selected with probability 7ri2 t out of the total
M2.. .(t-i) units at the tth stage.

301
302 Chapter 18

The design will be self-weighting with respect to y when the multiplier

wi2...u defined above is a pre-determined constant, wq, for all the ultimate­
stage sample units. It will be so if for the ultimate stage sampling, the
factor fu could be made proportional to the product of the reciprocals of
the corresponding factors for the preceding stages, i.e.
u-i
h OC PI — (18.3)

For example, in a two-stage srs, where j\ = n/N and /2t — mi I Mi, the
multiplier for the sample ssu’s is
1 N Mi
tj fi ■ hi n mi
and this will be a constant wq, when
NMi
Won
In this case, the sampling fraction at the second stage should be the same
(= N/won) in all the n sample fsu’s.
In general, a multi-stage srs will be self-weighting if, in each stage, the
sampling fraction is a constant for selecting the next-stage sample units.
That is n\2...t/^i2...t should be a constant; e.g. the second-stage sampling
fraction should be a constant, the third-stage sampling fraction
71123/M23 another constant, and so on.
We shall further consider the requirement of having a fixed number, say
no, of the ultimate stage sample units in each of the selected penultimate
stage units. If these n0 units are selected with equal probability, then
TT12...(u-l) N12...(u-1) (18.4)
i. the penultimate stage units should be selected with probability propor­
e.
tional to the total number of ultimate stage units contained in each, and
the sample number of penultimate stage units is given by

(18.5)

If the no units are selected with probability proportional to “size”, i.e.

212...u
K12...U — (18.6)
^12...(u —1)

where the numerator refers to the “size” of the particular units to be se­
lected and the denominator to the total size of all the units, and the design
will be self-weighting when:
Self-weighting Designs in Multi-stage Sampling 303

1. The variate value is the ratio of the characteristic under study 7/12...u
to the size in the ultimate stage units Z12.,.u; and

2. the penultimate stage units are selected with probability proportional

to total “size”, and the number of penultimate stage units is given by

(18.7)

Notes
1. We have already seen in section 16.5 how two- and three-stage pps designs
for crop surveys can be made self-weighting by using the same size variable,
such as area, in all stages of sample selection.
2. For fractional values of the sample sizes at different stage, see section 13.4.
3. For making a multi-stage design self-weigh ting at the tabulating stage,
the same principles as for a stratified sample, given in section 13.5, will
apply, namely, selecting a sub-sample with probability proportional to the
multipliers.

18.3 Two-stage sample design with pps and srs

Let us consider the sampling plan of section 16.3, with n fsu’s selected with
pps (7rt ) out of a total N, and m, ssu’s selected with equal probability out
of a total Mi units in each selected fsu. Here /1 = n^i and /2 — mi/Mi.
The multiplier for the ¿jth sample ssu (t = 1,2,..., n; j = 1,2,..., m,) is

and the design will be self-weighting with a constant multiplier wq when

mi = Mi/(womti) (18.9)

Suppose the above sample design refers to a household inquiry with

villages as the fsu’s and households the ssu’s. The difficulty is that the
ratios MJ Ki will vary from village to village and so will the sample number
of households m,, given by equation (18.9) required for making the design
self-weighting; i.e. the work load per enumerator in each of the sample
villages will vary greatly: this is apart from the fact that the total number
of households (M,) in the ¿th village will not be known beforehand, unless
the inquiry is conducted simultaneously with a census. The problem is to
make the work load approximately equal, retaining a self-weighting design.
304 Chapter 18

If a fixed number of mo of households is to be sampled in each village,

then with a self-weighting design
w0 = Mi/(n7Timo) (18.10)
or
7r,- = Mi/(wonmo) = Mi/M (18.11)
where M = Mi is the total number of households in the universe, i.e.
the villages are to be selected with probability proportional to the number
of households. It can be seen that
u>0 = Af/(nmo)
— total number of households/number of sample households
= 1/sampling fraction (18.12)
In practice, however, the number of households (Af) in the universe is not
known and the number of households existing at the time of enumeration in
the ¿th sample village (Af,) will be known only after the listing of households
when the village is reached and the households listed. In such a situation,
the values which are known from the latest census may be used for selecting
the sample villages i.e. 7rt = M'JM', where M- is the number of census
households in the ¿th village and M' = £2 the total number of census
households in the universe. The overall constant multiplier can be fixed on
the basis of the expected number of households (Af ) in the universe and
the total sample size (nmo); the value of M can, for example, be obtained
by projecting the number of total households in the censuses. By using
these values it is seen that
estimated total number of households
0 number of sample households
= M /(nmo) = M'Mi/nM'iTTii (18.13)
so that
rrti = moM'Mi/M" M'i = mok/I (18.14)
where
I = M /M' — estimated increase in the total number of
households,
Ii = Mi/M'i — actual increase in the number of households
in the ¿th village from the latest census.
This procedure is expected to restrict the variation of the number of
sample households in the ¿th village within a short range. The operational
steps will be:
Self-weighting Designs in Multi-stage Sampling 305

1. Fix n and mo from cost and error considerations.

2. Find the overall sampling fraction which is the ratio of the number of
households to be sampled to the expected total number of households
in the universe. The reciprocal of this will be the constant multiplier
w0.

3. Select villages with probability proportional to the number of house­

holds as in the previous census.

4. Compute the estimated increase in the number of households in the

universe from the census, I = M /M'\ and compute Mm'Q = m.Q/1.

5. Give to the enumerators the values m'o and M- (the number of house­
holds in the village at the time of the census) with instruction to
select at random (or systematically) m, = mz0Mt- /M- households out
of the Mi households listed in the ¿th village.

Note: The expected number of sample households = nmoM/M . For fractional

see section 13.4.

18.4 Opinion and marketing research

In opinion and market research, to obtain a valid, independent response

it is important to interview only one individual in a selected household so
that the response of other household members, which are likely to be con­
ditioned, are not included in the survey. Even if the “true” response of all
the household members could be obtained, a situation not usually realized
in practice, the sample may be more profitably spread over a greater num­
ber of households, because of the homogeneity of responses in a household
often observed in such surveys. It is easy to see that with the selection
of one individual from a household, the sampling design can be made self­
weighting if the households are selected with probability proportional to
the respective sizes.
To illustrate, consider a three-stage sample design, as in Examples 15.3
and 16.2, for the type of opinion and marketing surveys usually conducted in
cities and towns with small first-stage units - city or town-blocks. Suppose
that n sample blocks are selected with probability 7rt out of N blocks; in
the ¿th sample block (z = 1,2,..., n), mt- sample households are selected
with probability 7rtJ- (J = 1, 2,..., mt) out of the total Mi households, and
finally, one adult is selected with equal probability out of the total Qij
adults in the zjth sample household: sampling is with replacement at the
first two stages. Here f\ — /2 — and /3 = 1/Qjj; so that the
306 Chapter 18

multiplier for the selected adult in the ¿jth sample household is

I//1/2/3 = (18.15)

If the sample households are selected with probability proportional to

the number of adults, i.e. if 7ri; = Qij/Qi, where Qi = £2 ‘ Qij is the
total number of adults in the ¿th block, the multiplier becomes Qi/rvKim.i.
If this is to be a constant, it>o, then

mi — Qi/(woniTi) (18.16)

In practice, the factors l/(won7Ti) will be supplied to the enumerators;

on reaching any block, the enumerators will list the households and the
adults in these households. The total number of adults (Q,) in the ¿th
block, when multiplied by the factors l/(woH7rt), will determine the sample
number of households, which is also the sample number of adults, in the
block.
The blocks may be selected with probability proportional to size (the
most recent census population, for example), or with equal probability. In
the latter case, the factor l/(won7rt) = ¿V/(won) will be a constant for all
the blocks.

Further reading
Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. I, sections 7.12 and 9.11; Murthy (1967), section 12.3;
Singh and Chaudhary, section 9.9; Som (1958-59) and (1959); Sukhatme et al.
(1984), section 9.8.
PART IV

STRATIFIED MULTI-STAGE
SAMPLING
CHAPTER 19

Stratified Multi-stage Sampling:

Introduction

19.1 Introduction

In this part, we deal with stratified multi-stage sample designs - a synthesis

of what has gone earlier. In such a design, the universe is divided into
a number of sub-universes (strata) and sampling is conducted in stages
separately within each stratum.
The general theorems relating to stratified multi-stage sampling will
be considered in this chapter; subsequent chapters will deal with different
types and aspects of stratified multi-stage sampling: simple random sample;
varying probability sample; size of sample and allocation to different strata
and stages; and self-weighting designs.

19.2 Reasons for stratified multi-stage sampling

Stratified multi-stage designs are the commonest of all types of sample

designs. This is because they combine, as regards costs and efficiency, the
advantages of both stratification and multi-stage sampling.
In stratified sampling, ideally the strata should be formed so as to be in­
ternally homogeneous and heterogeneous with respect to one another (with
respect to the values of study variables in srs or with respect to the ratios
of the values of study to the size-variable in pps sampling): this, as has
been observed before, results in increased efficiency. On the other hand, in
a multi-stage design the first-stage units should be internally heterogeneous
and homogeneous with respect to one another. In a stratified multi-stage
design, all the strata have of course to be covered, but when the strata
are made internally homogeneous and the first-stage units internally ho­
mogeneous, a small number of first-stage units need be selected from each

309
310 Chapter 19

stratum in order to provide an efficient sample.

Almost all nation-wide sample surveys, including those mentioned in
section 1.1, use stratified multi-stage designs. For example, for the Na­
tional Market Research Survey in Great Britain (1952), where the universe
was the adult civilian population aged sixteen and over, the sample was
stratified by factors such as geographical region, urban/rural areas, indus­
trialization index and zoning, and was spread over four stages: adminis­
trative districts, polling districts, households, and individuals (Moser and
Kalton, Chapter 8). In the monthly Current Population Survey in the U.S.,
the sampling design is stratified three-stage; heterogeneous first-stage units
are defined, comprising individual counties (or sometimes two or more ad­
joining counties), and grouped into a number of strata; the first-stage units
are sampled with varying probabilities; relatively small areal units of about
two hundred households are the second-stage units; and the third-stage
units are clusters of approximately six households, called “segments”: the
sample contains 449 first-stage units, about 900 segments and about 50,000
households (Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. I, Chapter 12; Hansen and Tepping,
1969). In the Indian National Sample Survey (1964-5), in the rural sector
there were 353 strata, comprising administrative units, and each covering
an average of 1.2 million persons; for the socioeconomic inquiries, villages
and households were the two stages of sampling, and for crop yield surveys,
the four stages of sampling were respectively villages, clusters of plots,
crop-plots, and circular cuts of radius 2' 3 or 4' (see Appendix V). In the
Sample Survey on Goods Traffic Movement in Zambia (1967), the design
was stratified two-stage, with proprietors of transport vehicles constituting
the first-stage and the vehicles the second-stage units.
Furthermore, almost all multi-country survey programs, including those
considered in Appendix VI, adopt stratified multi-stage designs.

19.3 Fundamental theorems in stratified multi-stage sampling

The fundamental theorems for the estimation of universe parameters in

stratified multi-stage sampling follow from those for a stratified single-stage
sample (section 9.3) and for an unstratified multi-stage sample (section
14.4) taken in combination.

1. The universe is sub-divided into L mutually exclusive and exhaustive

strata. In the /ith stratum (h = 1,2,...,L), of the total Nh first-
stage units, nh (> 2) are selected with replacement (and with equal
or varying probabilities); if thi (/i = 1,2,..., L; i = 1,2,... ,rih) are
the rih independent and unbiased estimators of the universe parameter
Th > obtained from the ith selected first-stage unit in the /ith stratum,
Stratified Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 311

then the combined unbiased estimator of Th is the arithmetic mean

th = ^thi/nh (19.1)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of th is

= ^(thi ~ th)2/nh{nh - 1) = SSthi/nh(nh - 1) (19.2)

An unbiased estimator of the universe parameter for all the strata

combined
L
(19.3)
h=l
is obtained on summing up the L unbiased stratum estimators th
(given in equation (19.1)), namely
L
t = ^ih (19-4)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of t is obtained on summing the

L unbiased estimators of the stratum variances (sampling in one
stratum is independent of sampling in another, so that the stratum
estimators th are mutually independent),

<? = £< (19.5)

We shall see later in this section how to compute the thi values for a
stratified multi-stage design.
For another study variable, similarly defined, an unbiased estima­
tor of the universe parameter
L
u= (19.6)
is the sum of the L unbiased stratum estimators Uh of Uh
L
u = ^uh (19.7)

and an unbiased estimator of the variance of u is the sum of L unbiased

estimators of the stratum variances s^h,

= (19.8)
312 Chapter 19

2. An unbiased estimator of the covariance of th and Uh for the Ath

stratum is

Sthuh = - th)(uhi - uh)/nh(nh - 1)

= SPthiUhi/nh(nh - 1) (19.9)

For all the strata combined, an unbiased estimator of the covariance

between t and u is the sum of the stratum estimators Sîhüh, i.e.

L
= "y? shHh (19.10)

3. A consistent but generally biased estimator of the ratio of two universe

parameters in the /ith stratum Rh = Th/Uh is the ratio of the sample
estimators th and üh in the stratum,

rh-îh/ùh (19.11)

with a variance estimator

srh — (sth + rhsuh ~ ^rhsthuh)/^h (19.12)

For all the strata combined, a consistent but generally biased estima­
tor of the ratio of two universe parameters R = T/U is the ratio of
the respective sample estimators t and u,

r = t/u (19.13)

with a variance estimator

u - 2rstu)/u2
s2 = (s2 4- r2S2 (19.14)

4. A consistent but generally biased estimator of the correlation coeffi­

cient ph between the two study variables for the hth stratum is

Ph = SthüJsîhsüh (19.15)

For all the strata combined, an estimator of the correlation coefficient

p is

P — s^/Sts (19.16)
Stratified Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 313

5. Unbiased estimators of stratum universe totals obtained from the sam­

ple units. Here we change the notations and also deal with the totals
of a study variable (see section 14.4.5).
In a stratified multi-stage design with L strata and u stages (u >
1), in the hth stratum (h = 1,2,..., L), and Z th stage (t = 1,2,.. ., u),
let nnl2...(u-i) sample units be selected with replacement out of the
total TVi2...(t—1) units and let the (initial) probability of selection of
the (hl2 ... t)th unit be 7^12...t- We define

fht = Uhl2...(t-1) ’rhl2...t (19.17)

An unbiased estimator of the universe total Yh of the study variable

in the /ith stratum is

№ = E (II 777 12 -
stratum 't~1 '
sample
- ZL Wfl12 “^12 u (19.18)
stratum
sample

where 7//112...U is the value of the study variable in the (A12...u)th

ultimate-stage sample units and the factor

u 1
U 7- = WM2...U (19.19)
t=i

is the multiplier (or the weighting-factor) for the (hl2 ... u)th ultimate­
stage sample units; the sum of products of these multipliers and the
values of the study variable for all the ultimate-stage sample units
in the stratum provides the unbiased linear estimator of the universe
total Yh in equation (19.18).
An unbiased estimator of the variance of the sample estimator
in the general estimating equation (19.18) is
2 _
s Vh. ~

5^1 9 ^hl2...ul/hl2...u 9 n ^/11 2.. u 1/h 12 u

nh(nh ~ 1)
(19.20)
314 Chapter 19

where (> 2) is the number of the first-stage units selected with

replacement in the hth stratum, the summation outside the square
brackets being over these first-stage units.
The formulae can be put in simpler forms. Using a slightly dif­
ferent notation, an unbiased estimator of the universe total Yh of the
study variable obtained from the ith first-stage unit (i — 1, 2,..., n^)
in the hth stratum is

Vhi = nh wh\-2...uyhi2...u (19.21)

2,3,. ,.,u

the summation being over the second- and subsequent-stage sample

units.
The combined unbiased estimator of the universe total Yh from all
the nh sample first-stage units in the hth stratum is the arithmetic
mean

!/M=S (1922)

which is the same as the estimator in equation (19.18), the sum­

mation in equation (19.22) being over the sample first-stage units
in the Ath stratum.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of t/£0 is, from equation
(19.2),
nh.
SK„ = - ¡'io)2/M>U - 1) (19.23)

For all the strata combined, an unbiased estimator of the universe

total Y — Yh is the sum of the stratum estimators
L
(19.24)

An unbiased estimator of the variance of y is, from equation (19.5),

s’= ¿4:« <19-25)

Notes
1. Setting of confidence limits. The results for stratified single-stage sampling,
given in section 9.4, also hold for stratified multi-stage sampling.
Stratified Multi-stage Sampling: Introduction 315

2. Selection of two first-stage units from each stratum. As for stratified single-
stage sampling (section 9.5), so also for stratified multi-stage sampling, the
computation of estimates is simplified considerably when in each stratum
two first-stage units are selected with replacement out of the total number
of units. The results of section 9.5 also hold here, thi and th2 denoting
the unbiased estimators of the universe parameter Th in the hth stratum,
obtained from the two sample first-stage units; and similarly for Uhi and

3. For other notes, see section 9.3, notes (2)-(4) and section 14.4, notes (l)-(5).

Further reading
Foreman, section 8.6.
CHAPTER 20

Stratified Multi-stage Simple

Random Sampling

20.1 Introduction

In this chapter we will consider the estimating method for totals, means,
and ratios of the values of study variables and their variances in a stratified
multi-stage sample with simple random sampling at each stage: the meth­
ods for two- and three-stage designs are illustrated in some detail, and the
procedures for four and higher stages indicated. The methods of estimation
of proportion of units in a category and the use of ratio estimators will also
be considered.

20.2 Stratified two-stage srs: Estimation of totals, means, ratios and

their variances

20.2.1 Universe totals and means

The universe is divided on some criteria into L mutually exclusive and
exhaustive strata. Let the number of first-stage units (fsu’s) in the /zth
stratum (h = 1,2,...,£) be the Nh and the total number of fsu’s in all
the strata taken together N = Nh', the number of second-stage units
(ssu’s) in the ¿th fsu (? = 1,2,..., Nh) in the /zth stratum is denoted by
Mhi, the total number of ssu’s in the /zth stratum and in all strata taken
together being respectively Mhi and ^Jh=i Mhi- Denoting by
Yhij the value of the study variable of the J th ssu (j = 1,2,.. ., Mhi) in
the ¿th fsu in the /zth stratum, we define the following universe totals and
means:

317
318 Chapter 20

For the hth stratum

Total of the values of the study variable in the zth fsu:

Mh,
(20.1)
;=1

Mean for the ¿th fsu:

Yhi = Yhi/Mhi (20.2)

Total for the hth stratum:

Nh Mhl Nh Nh _
Y‘v = Ey“ = E M'"y'“ (20.3)

Mean per fsu:

_ Nk _
Yh = Yh/Nh = ^MhiYKi/Nh (20.4)

Mean per ssu:

(20.5)

For all strata combined

Total of the values of the study variable:

L L Nh L Nh Mhi
y = Ey* = EEy- = EEEy>o (20.6)

Mean per fsu:

Y = Y/N (20.7)

Mean per ssu:

y=y/(z£^) (20.8)
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 319

Table 20.1: Sampling plan for a stratified two-stage simple random sample
with replacement. In the /ith stratum (h = 1, 2,..., ¿)

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(t) universe sample method probability

1 First-stage Nh srswr Equal = 1/Nh nh/Nh

2 Second-stage Mht mh, srswr Equal = Ï/Mh,

20.2.2 Structure of a stratified two-stage srs

In the Tith stratum, out of the Nh fsu’s, nh are selected; and out of the Mhi
ssu’s in the ¿th selected fsu (i = 1,2,...,11/,), mhi are selected: sampling
at both stages is srs with replacement. The total number of sample ssu’s
in the /ith stratum is and in all the strata taken together is
Z2?=i mhi- the latter is the total sample size. The sampling plan is
shown in summary form in Table 20.1.

20.2.3 Estimation of the totals of a study variable

Unbiased estimators of the stratum totals Yh and the overall total Y of
a study variable and their variance estimators could be obtained from the
general estimating equations of section 19.3(5), or by extending the methods
of sections 15.2.3(a) and 10.2 for srs (with replacement).
Let yhij (h = 1,2,..., L; i = 1,2,... ,nh; j = 1,2,..., m/,,) denote the
value of the study variable in the jth selected ssu in the ith selected fsu
in the /ith stratum. For the /ith stratum, the unbiased estimator of the
stratum total Yh, obtained from the ith fsu, is (from equation (15.12))

M mh!
yli = № — V yMj = NKMhiyhi (20.9)
fl

where

Phi = ^2yhij/mhi (20.10)

j=i

The combined unbiased estimator of Yh from all the n/, sample fsu’s is (from
equation (15.13))

(20.11)
320 Chapter 20

For all the strata combined, the unbiased estimator of the total Y is
(from equation (19.4)) the sum of unbiased estimators of the stratum totals
Yh,
L L nK TTlh.1
* Mhi
(20.12)
E mhi
j=l

20.2.4 Sampling variances of the estimators y^0 and у

From section 15.2.4, the sampling variance of y^Q in srswr at both stages is
7 Nhffhb , Nh M^(T2
hwi
а =---------- 1------------------- (20.13)
rih nh mhi
where
Nh _
¿» = £(у“-г'>)2/лг (20.14)
1=1

is the variance between the fsu’s in the hth stratum; and

Mh, _
- У«)2Ж,- (20.15)
j=l

is the variance between the ssu’s within the ¿th fsu in the /ith stratum.
The sampling variance of у = ^,L y^Q is
L
а у2

Note: The sampling variances and their unbiased estimators in srs, without re­
placement at both stages and with replacement at the first stage and without
replacement at the second stage, follow from section 17.2.4 for any stratum; for
the sampling variance y of all the strata taken together, the stratum sampling
variances are summed up and an unbiased estimator is obtained on summing up
the unbiased stratum variance estimators.

20.2.5 Estimation of the variances of sample estimators of totals

An unbiased estimator of a2, , the sampling variance of the stratum esti-
V hQ
mator y^0 is, from equation (19.23) or (15.14),

< = j^yhi - yMY/nh{nh - 1)

= * hi/nh(nh - 1)
SSy (20.17)
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 321

An unbiased estimator of triy = V RO , the variance of the overall

<r?.
estimator y is, from equation (19.25), the sum of the stratum unbiased
estimators of variances
L
’HL»«. <2018)
20.2.6 Estimation of the ratio of the totals of two study variables
For another study variable, the unbiased estimators of the stratum total
Xh are similarly defined.
From the hfth fsu:
u m>ii
= Nh —y'xhii (20.19)

Combined from fsu’s:

= <20-20)
si, , an unbiased estimator of variance of zîn, is defined as for si, ,
XhO yhO
given in equation (20.17).
For the whole universe, the unbiased estimator of X is (from equation
(20.12))
L
* = £>;<, (20-21)

and s]., the unbiased estimator of the variance of x, is defined as for s^,
given in equation (20.18).
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the ratio of two universe
totals at the stratum level Rh = Yh/Xh is the ratio of the sample estimators,

rh — Vho/æhO (20.22)
with a variance estimator (from equation (19.12))

< = (»«, + risk. - <20-23)

where

sy-hofho = - Vho)(xhi - xho)/nh(nh - 1) (20.24)

2=1

is an unbiased covariance estimator of y^0 and x* hQ (from equation (19.9)).

322 Chapter 20

A consistent but generally biased estimator of two universe totals for

all the strata combined, R — Y/X, is the ratio of the sample estimators,

(20.25)

with a variance estimator (from equation (19.14))

sr2 = (s2 + r2s2-2r^)/z2 (20.26)

where
L
(20.27)

is an unbiased covariance estimator of y and x (from equation (19.10)).

20.2.7 Estimation of the means of a study variable

For the estimation of the means of a study variable in a two-stage srs in
any stratum, we use the methods of section 15.2.6 adding the subscript h
for the hth stratum. Here we consider the estimation of the overall mean,
i.e. the mean for all the strata combined.

(a) Estimation of the mean per first-stage unit. The unbiased estimator
of the overall mean per fsu is

V = y/N (20.28)

with an unbiased variance estimator

4 = 4/№ (20.29)

The unbiased estimator y of Y, is defined by equation (20.12), and s2,

the unbiased variance estimator of yt is defined by equation (20.18).

(b) Estimation of the mean per second-stage unit. Two situations will
arise: (i) Mhi (the total number of ssu’s) is known for all the fsu’s;
and (ii) Mhi is known for the rih sample fsu’s only.

(i) Unbiased estimator. When Mhi is known for all the fsu’s, the
unbiased estimator of mean per ssu is
z / l Nh \
(20.30)
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 323

with an unbiased variance estimator

(20.31)

See the notes to section 15.2.6(b-i).

(ii) Ratio estimator. When Mhi is known for only the sample fsu’s,
an unbiased estimator of the total number of ssu’s in the uni­
verse, Mm, is given by an estimating equation of the
type (20.12) by putting ynij = 1 for the sample ssu’s, i.e. by
L
m = ^2mho (20.32)

with an unbiased variance estimator

Sm = 52 = 52 52(m^' _ mho)2/nh(nh - 1) (20.33)

where
mho = ^2mhi/nh (20.34)

and
= Nhmhi (20.35)

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe mean

Y per ssu is (from equation (20.25))
r = y/m (20.36)
with variance estimator
sr = («2 + r2s2
m - (2rSyrn)/m2 (20.37)

where
L
sym = 52Syiornno
L nh
= 52 52^
* " Vho)(mhi - m* h0)/nh(nh - 1)
(20.38)
is an unbiased covariance estimator of y and m.
See notes to section 15.2.6(b-ii).
324 Chapter 20

(iii) Unweighted mean of means. An estimator of the mean per ssu

in the universe is the simple (unweighted) mean of means.
L nh

EEX/» <20 39)

where yhi is the mean of the y^ij values over the rrihi sample ssu’s
in the /¿¿th sample fsu (equation (20.10)), and n = n.h- This
estimator is neither unbiased nor consistent: it will be unbiased
and consistent when the design is self-weighting.
Note: For a comparison of the different types of estimators, see section 15.2.6(b-
iv).

20.2.8 Estimation for sub-universes

Here as for stratified uni-stage and unstratified multi-stage sampling, un­
biased estimators are obtained for the total value of a study variable in the
sub-universe in the /¿th stratum or for all the strata taken together Y'
by defining
y'h.. = yhij if the sample ssu belongs to the sub-universe
y'hij ~ 0 otherwise.
Unbiased estimators of the variances of the totals for the sub-universe
are similarly given.

20.2.9 Estimation of proportion of units

Here we combine the methods of section 10.3 for a stratified uni-stage srs
and section 15.4 for an unstratified two-stage srs. Let M'hi be the total
number of second-stage units possessing a certain attribute in the ¿th first-
stage unit (z = 1,2,.. ., Nh) in the /¿th stratum (h. = 1,2,..., Z); the total
number of such ssu’s in the Zth stratum is
Nh
(20.40)
The universe number of ssu’s with the attribute for all the strata combined
is

(20-41)
The proportion of such ssu’s with the attribute in the ¿th fsu in the Zith
stratum is
Phi = (20.42)
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 325

and for all the Nh fsu’s in the stratum

Nh / Nh Nh I Nh
Ph = SX/E Mki — MhiPhi I Mhi (20.43)

The proportion for all the strata combined is

L Nh I L Nh
p= <2044)

As for unstratified two-stage srs (section 15.4), so also here, unbiased

estimators of the total number of ssu’s in a stratum and for all strata
combined are obtained respectively from the estimating equations (20.11)
and (20.12) by putting yhij = 1 if the sample ssu has the attribute, and 0
otherwise, and so, also, for the unbiased variance estimators.
For the estimators for any stratum, we use the methods of section 15.4
adding the subscript h for the Ath stratum. Here we consider the estimation
of the overall universe proportion, i.e. for all the strata combined.
An unbiased estimator of M' = M'h is the sum of the stratum
estimators m'ho
*

m> = 52 (20.45)

where
mho = ^mhi/nh
(20.46)

from equation (15.54),

™'hi = Nh Mhiphi (20.47)
from equation (15.53), and
Phi = m'hi/mhi (20.48)
from equation (15.52), m'hi of the mhi sample fsu’s in an srs having the
attribute in the Ath stratum.
An unbiased variance estimator of m' is
L L nh
sm' = 52 sik* 0 = 52 52«- - mho)2/nh^h - 1) (20.49)
If all the Mhi values are known for the universe, then an unbiased esti­
mator of the universe proportion P is
L Nh
EE"'- (20.50)
326 Chapter 20

with an unbiased variance estimator

If Mm is not known, it is estimated unbiasedly by m in equa­

tion (20.32) with an unbiased variance estimator given by equation (20.33).
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe proportion
P is then

p = m!/m (20.52)

with a variance estimator

sp = (4 + P2sm - 2psmm/)/rn2 (20.53)

where
L
Smm' = 22 Mo”»»
L nh
= 22 52(mh< " mho)(mhi ~ mho)/nh(nh - 1) (20.54)

is an unbiased covariance estimator of m and m'.

See notes to sections 10.3 and 15.4.

Example 20.1

In each of the simple random samples of two villages, each from the three stages
selected in Example 10.2 from the list of villages in Appendix IV, select five
households at random, given the listing of households in the sample villages. On
the basis of collected data for the sample households on the size, number of adults,
and possession of TV satellite dishes, estimate the total number of persons, the
average household size, the proportion of adults, and the proportion of households
with TV satellite dishes for the three states separately and also combined, along
with their standard errors. The sample data are given in Table 20.2. The use of
the last column will be illustrated in Example 20.2.
As there are two sample first-stage units, namely villages, in each stratum, we
follow the simplified procedure mentioned in note 2 of section 19.3, illustrated also
in Example 10.2 for a stratified single-stage srs. We denote the household’s size
by yhij, the number of adults by XhtJ, the possession of TV satellite dishes by y'hi]
(= 1 for yes; and = 0 for no) in the sample households (h = 1,2,3 for the states;
i = 1,2 for the sample villages; and j = 1,2, 3,4, 5 for the sample households).
The respective means per sample household in the sample villages are denoted by
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 327

Table 20.2: Size, number of adults (18 years or over), possession of TV

satellite dishes, and agreement by the selected adult to an increase of state
taxes for education in the sample households in each of the two sample
villages in the three states of Example 10.2: Stratified two-stage simple
random sample

Household Household Number of Possession of Agreement by the

serial n o. size (yhij) adults TV satellite dishes selected adult to an
(Vh.j = b increase of state taxes
for Yes; for education
= 0, for No) (9h,j = b for Yes;
= 0, for No)

State I: Village serial no. 2; total number of households = 18

7 6 4 1 0
11 4 2 0 0
12 4 2 0 0
15 3 1 0 1
18 4 2 1 1

State I: Village serial no. 10; total number of households = 22

1 4 1 0 0
4 5 2 0 0
6 4 2 1 1
9 3 2 1 0
17 4 3 0 0

State II: Village serial no. 5; total number of households = 20

5 6 3 1 0
7 7 4 1 0
8 5 3 0 1
12 6 4 0 0
16 6 2 1 0

State II: Village serial no. 11; total number of households = 18

4 4 2 0 1
7 5 3 0 0
9 5 3 1 0
12 7 3 1 0
16 5 3 0 0

State III : Village serial no. 2; total number of households = 21

7 6 3 0 0
10 5 3 0 0
17 5 2 1 0
19 5 3 0 0
20 7 4 1 1

State III : Village serial no. 3; total number of households = 18

6 6 4 0 0
10 6 3 0 1
11 6 4 0 0
16 5 3 0 0
18 4 2 1 0
328 Chapter 20

ÿhi, ¿hi, and fnh,, defined by equations of the type (20.10). Unbiased estimates of
the total number of households in the three zones separately and combined have
already been obtained in Example 10.2. These along with the other required
computations, are shown in Tables 20.3-20.5.
The final estimates are given in Table 20.6. The coefficients of variation of
the estimation proportion of households with TV satellite dishes are rather high.
To reduce standard errors, information on items such as this, that do not require
detailed probing, could be collected for all the households in the sample villages
when a list of households is prepared before a sample of households could be
drawn for collecting other information. The present computations are merely
illustrative.

20.2.10 Ratio method of estimation

(a) Estimation procedures for totals. As for unstratified single- or multi­
stage and stratified single-stage, so also for stratified multi-stage sam­
pling, the ratio method of estimation may increase the efficiency of
estimators under favorable conditions if information on ancillary vari­
ables is available for the second-stage units in the universe.

For the hth stratum

A combined unbiased estimator of the stratum total of the ancillary
variable Zh — Zhij is first obtained from equation (20.11)
Tlh
zho = ^2zhi/nh (20.55)

with an unbiased variance estimator

Oh
< = - zho?/nh(nh - 1) (20.56)

where

=M. — (20.57)

The ratio estimator of the total Yjj, using the ancillary information, is,
from equation (15.66),

VhR — Zhy
*ho/ zhC) — (20.58)
where

rlh — Vho/ZhO (20.59)

Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 329

Table 20.3: Computation of the estimated total numbers of persons, adults

and households with TV satellite dishes: data of Table 20.2

State Number of Sample Number of households

villages village Total Sample Stratum
Total Sample estimate
771 ■ —

h Nh Tlh i Mht mh, NhMhl

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 10 2 1 18 5 180
2 22 5 220

Total 400
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 2OO(m‘o)
Difference -40 (dmh)
j ¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 20

II 11 2 1 20 5 220
2 18 5 198

Total 418
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 2O9(m‘o)
Difference 22 (dmh)
| ¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 11

III 9 2 1 21 5 189
2 18 5 162

Total 351
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) *
175.5(m 0)
Difference 27 (dmh)
¡Difference| (= estimated standard error) 13 5

(continued)

t The estimated number of households were obtained in Table 10.4, denoted by

x^. In this example, x^t denotes the estimated numbers of adults, and m
* ht
those of households.
330 Chapter 20

Table 20.3 continued

State Sample Number of persons

village Sample Sample Stratum
number mean estimate
h i =i ]y** Vhx Vh. =

(1) (4) (8) (9) (10)

I 1 21 4.2 756
2 20 4.0 880

Total 1636
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 818(^0)
Difference -156 (dÿh)
¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 78 (Xo)

II 1 30 6.0 1320
2 26 5.2 1029.6

Total 2349.6
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 1174.8(y;0)
Difference 290.4 (dyh)
| ¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 1452

III 1 28 5.6 1058.4

2 27 5.4 874.8

Total 1933.2
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 966.6(y;0)
Difference 183.6 (dyh)
i |Difference| (= estimated standard error) 918 (Xo)

(continued)
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 331

Table 20.3 continued

State Sample Number of adults

village Sample Sample Stratum
number mean estimate
h i hi Xhi ~
Nh xh.

(1) (4) in) (12) (13)

I 1 11 2.2 396
2 10 2.0 440

Total 836
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 418«0)
Difference -44 (dxh)
|Difference| (= estimated standard error) 22 (s,. )
' xho'

II 1 16 3.2 704
2 14 2.8 554.4

Total 1258.4
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 629.2(r;0)
Difference 149.6 (dxh)
¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 74.8 (s_.

III 1 15 3.0 567

2 16 3.2 518.4

Total 1085.4
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) *
542.7(r 0)
Difference 48.6 (dxh)
¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 24.3 (sx. )
' hO7

(continued)
332 Chapter 20

Table 20.3 continued

State Sample Number of households with TV satellite dishes

village Sample Sample Stratum
number mean estimate
h i —
m. /hi
i
j mht ~
Nh Mh

(1) (4) (14) (15) (16)

I 1 1 0.2 36
2 2 0.4 88

Total 124
Mean ( = stratum estimate of total) 62(m-)
Difference -52 Cm'h)
|Difference! ( = estimated s tandard error) 26

II 1 3 0.6 132
2 2 0.4 79.2

Total 211.2
Mean ( = stratum estimate of total) 105.6(771^)
Difference 52.8 Cm'C
|Difference| ( = estimated s tandard error) 26.4 (sm,.o)

III 1 2 0.4 75.6

2 1 0.2 32.4

Total 108.0
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 54.0(77^)
Difference 43.2 (dm,h
~ |Difference| (= estimated standard error) 21 6
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 333

Table 20.4: Computation of estimated total numbers of households, per­

sons, adults, and households with TV satellite dishes: data of Tables 20.2
and 20.3

State Number of households^ Number of persons

Estimate Standard Variance Estimate Standard Variance

error error
s2m. 2
h mh0 5m* VhO s •
KO hO yho VhO

I 200 20 400 818 78 6084

II 209 11 121 1174.8 145.2 21083.04
III 175.5 13.5 182.25 966.6 91.8 8427.24

All states
combined 584.5 26.52 703.25 2959.4 188.66 35594.28

State Number of adults Number of household s with

TV satellite dish es

Estimate Standard Variance Estimate Standard Variance

error error
2
h xh0 sx
* mh0 *
S m' S /•
ho hO ho ^hO

I 418 22 484 62 26 676

II 629.2 74.8 5595.04 105.6 26.4 696.96
III 542.7 24.3 590.49 54 21.6 466.56

All states
combined 1589.9 81.67 6669.53 221.6 42.89 1839.52

t Also from Example 10.2.

334 Chapter 20

Table 20.5: Computation of estimated ratios and variances: data of Table

20.3

State For the average household size

*
*h0 KO —
m
rh = Sv
*
yh0 hO
¡/ho/rnhO 1 dyhdmh. 2rh3v* m* col. (4)/m
2
*
yho ho

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

I 4.09 1560.0 14.4400 0.000361

II 5.62 1597.2 6952.2244 0.149159
III 5.51 1239.3 303.2822 0.009847

All states 5.06 4396.5 9107.4317 0.026658

combined (r) (3 ym) («2 + r2s2m - 2rsym) (¿)

States For the proportion of adults

Ph = sy
* *
z — +Phsy^ ~ < =
yh0 ho ho Vh0
xhofVhO 4" dyhdxh 2phi«o co1 (8)/l/xo

(1) (6) (7) (*

) (9)

I 0.5110 1716.00 318.9082 0.00047661

II 0.5356 10860.96 8.8081 0.00000638
III 0.5615 2230.74 742.3261 0.00079451

All states 0.5372 14807.70 1032.0768 0.00011784

combined (?) (4yx ) (»x + P2Hy ~ ^PHyx) (*
₽)

States For the proportion of households with

TV satellite dishes
/ 2 „ +./2 2 . — 2
Ph - « pk s
ho hO hO hO
»' =
a?h
*o/
m'h mhO dmh dm'h tyP L 3 — * — / * col. (12)/m
g
*
h hO

(1) (10) (11) (12) (13)

I 0.3100 520.0 392.0400 0.00980100

II 0.5053 290.4 434.3764 0.00994429
III 0.3077 291.6 304.3646 0.00988189

All states 0.3791 1102.0 1105.0526 0.00323455

combined (p') («m +P'2’2m - 2p'smm>) (<2,/)
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 335

Table 20.6: Estimates and standard errors computed from the data of strat­
ified two-stage srs in Table 20.2

Item State I State II State III All states

combined

1. Total number of persons

(a) Estimate 818 1174.8 966.6 2959.4
(b) Standard error 78 145.2 91.8 188.66
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 9.54 12.36 9.50 6.37

2. Average household size

(a) Estimate 4.09 5.62 5.51 5.06
(b) Standard error 0.019 0.399 0.099 0.163
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 0.46 7.10 1.80 3.22

3. Proportion of adults
(a) Estimate 0.5110 0.5356 0.5615 0.5372
(b) Standard error 0.02183 0.00253 0.02819 0.01086
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 4.27 0.47 5.02 2.02

4. Proportion of households u/ith

TV satellite dishes
(a) Estimate 0.3100 0.5053 0.3077 0.3791
(b) Standard error 0.0990 0.0997 0.0994 0.0569
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 31.94 19.73 32.30 15.01

A consistent but generally biased estimator of the variance of y^R is

(from equation (15.68))
SL = Z2hs2lh = («J.o + r2hS2„.h° - 2rihS^A) (20.60)
where

sy'k0PM = ~ Vho)(zhi ~ zh0)/nh(nh - 1) (20.61)

is an unbiased covariance estimator of y^0 and zh0-
For all strata combined (see also section 10.4)
For the estimation of universe total Y = ^LYh, two types of ratio
estimators can be used:
(i) Separate ratio estimator. The stratum ratio estimators y^R are
summed up:
L
VRS = 52 y*hR (20.62)
336 Chapter 20

the stratum ratio estimators y* hR being given by equation (20.58), the ad­
ditional subscript S in yRs standing for separate ratio estimator.
The variance estimator of YRg is the sum of the stratum variance esti­
mators , given by equation (20.60):
L
sE = EsL <20-63)

(ii) Combined ratio estimator. The ratio method is applied to the esti­
mators of the overall totals, thus

Vrc = Zy/z = Zr (20.64)

the additional subscript C in y ne standing for combined ratio estimator; y
is an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y and is given by equation
(20.12), z is an unbiased estimator of Z = Zh given by
L
Z = EZ^ (20.65)

and
r = y/z (20.66)

A variance estimator of yRc is

= (si + A2 - 2rssi ) (20.67)
where
L
= ES»^;» <2068>

is the unbiased covariance estimator of y and z.

See notes to sections 10.4 and 15.5.

Example 20.2

For the data of Example 20.1, given the additional information on the previous
census population of all the villages as in Example 10.5, obtain ratio estimates
of the total population for the three states separately and also combined, along
with their standard errors.
Here the ratio method of estimation is applied at the level of the first-stage
units. Unbiased estimates of the previous census population in the three states
along with their standard errors have already been obtained in Example 10.5.
The rest of the computations are shown in Table 20.7 and the final results given
in Table 20.8.
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 337

Table 20.7: Computation of ratio estimates of total population for a strat­

ified two-stage srs: data of Tables 20.2 and 10.12

State zh rlh = Vkr — 3 y*yh0 X *hO

yhR
7 hR7 7
Zhr\h s. +rf.S*12*,
4" ^yh ^z h yho lh ‘ho

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) («) (7)

I 863 1.0161 876.89 390.0 6902.369475 83.08

II 1010 1.1609 1172.51 9583.2 4788.032436 69.20
III 942 1.0278 968.19 6196.5 502.844801 22.42

Total 2815 3017.67 15389.7 12 193.246712 110.42

(SVRS )
(j/Rs)
Combined 2815 1.0732 3021.06 15389.7 12 855.394980 113.38
(Z) (fl = y/z) (j/RC — Zri) (5yx) (s2 = (5 VRC )

2risyi)

Notes

1. The ratio estimates of the total numbers of households have already been
obtained in Example 10.2.

2. The ratio estimates of population are more efficient than the unbiased esti­
mates, as shown by Table 20.6. No marked difference appears between the
separate and combined ratio estimates for the whole universe.

(b) Ratio of ratio estimators of totals of two study variables. Ratio es­
timators of totals of two study variables may be used in estimating
their ratios. However, as noted in section 10.5 for stratified single-
stage sampling, for any stratum (and also for all strata if the combined
ratio estimators are used), the ratio of the ratio estimators of totals of
two study variables becomes the same as the ratio of the correspond­
ing unbiased estimators. For the separate ratio estimators of totals
of two study variables, the ratio of the estimators and its variance
estimators have been defined in section 10.5 for stratified single-stage
srs. The same methods will apply for stratified multi-stage designs,
noting that the appropriate estimating formulae have to be used. For
an example, see exercise 3 of this chapter.
338 Chapter 20

Table 20.8: Ratio estimates of population and their standard errors com­
puted from the data of the stratified two-stage srs in Table 20.2, using the
previous census population of the sample villages (data of Table 20.7)

State Ratio Standard CV (%)

estimate error

I 876.9 83.1 9.48

II 1172.5 69.2 5.90
III 968.2 22.4 2.31

All states
Separate ratio
estimate 3017.7 110.4 3.66
Combined ratio
estimate 3021.1 113.4 3.75

20.3 Stratified three-stage srs

20.3.1 Universe totals and means

Following on the formulation in section 20.2.1, let the number of third-stage
units (tsu’s) in the jth second-stage unit (ssu) in the ith first-stage unit (fsu)
of the /ith stratum be denoted by Qhij (h = 1,2,..., L; i — 1,2,..., Nh ',
= 1,2,..., Mm). The total number of tsu’s in the ¿th fsu of the /ith stratum
is Qhij- The total number of tsu’s in the /ith stratum for all the Nh
fsu’s is ^=1 ^=1 Qhij, and in the whole universe Qhij •
Denoting by Yhijk the value of the study variable of the fcth tsu in the jth
ssu in the ith fsu in the /ith stratum, we define the following universe totals
and means:

For the hth stratum

Total of the values of the study variable in the jth ssu in the ith fsu in
the /ith stratum:
Qhij

Yhij — ; Yhijk (20.69)

fc = l
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 339

Mean for the jth ssu in the ¿th fsu:

hij — Yhij /Qhij (20.70)

Total for the ¿th fsu:

Afh.
Yhi = ^yM> (20.71)
¿=1

Mean for the ¿th fsu per ssu:

Y hi = Yhi/Mhi (20.72)
Total for the hth stratum:
Nh Mh,Qk,3 Nh Mh. Nh
Yh É£ £ = £ y.i
N,. Mh, _ N„ _
=LJvwyM (20.73)

Mean per fsu in the /ith stratum:

_ Nh _
Yh = Yh/Nh = ^MhiYhi/Nh (20.74)

Mean per ssu:

Nh
Yh=Y (20.75)

Mean per tsu:

Yh

(20.76)

For all strata combined

Total of the values of the study variable:
L L Nh L Nh Mhl
Y = £^=££^ = £££^0
L Nh Mhi Qhij
(20.77)
340 Chapter 20

Table 20.9: Sampling plan for a stratified three-stage simple random sample
with replacement. In the hth stratum (h = 1, 2,.. ., ¿)

Stage Unit No. in No, in Selection Selection h

(0 universe sample method probability

1 First-stage Nh nh srswr Equal = 1/Nh rih/Nh

2 Second-stage Mh, srswr Equal = 1/Mh. mh./Mh,
3 Third-stage Qh.j Qh.j srswr Equal - 1/Qh.j Q h.j / Q hi]

Mean per fsu:

Y = Y/N (20.78)

Mean per ssu:

- / L Nh \
Y = Y// (EE^j (20.79)

Mean per tsu:

_ , / l Nk Mh, \

Y = Y (20 80)

20.3.2 Structure of a stratified three-stage srs

In the /ith stratum, out of the Nh fsu’s, rih are selected; out of the Mhi
ssu’s in the zth selected fsu (? = 1,2,..., n^), are selected; and finally,
out of the Qhij tsu’s in the jth selected ssu (j = 1,2,. .. , m^), qhij are
selected; sampling at the three stages in srs with replacement. The total
number of sample tsu’s in the hth stratum is Qhij, and in all the
strata taken together is Qhij- the latter is the total sample
size. The sampling plan is shown in summary form in Table 20.9.

20.3.3 Estimation of the totals of a study variable

Unbiased estimators of the stratum totals Yh and the overall total Y of
a study variable and their variance estimators could be obtained from the
general estimating equations of section 19.3(5) or by extending the methods
of sections 15.6.3 and 10.2 for srs with replacement.
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 341

Let yhijk (A = 1,2, ...,£; i = l,2,...,nh; j = 1,2,..., mhtk =

1,2,... ,qhij) denote the value of the study variable in the ¿th selected
tsu in the jth selected ssu in the zth selected fsu in the /ith stratum.
For the hth stratum, an unbiased estimator of Yh from the ith selected
fsu is (from section 15.6.3)

* _ ni V V

- Nl> mhi (20.81)

J=1

where
Qhij
Vhij ~ yhijk/Qhij (20.82)
k=l

is the simple arithmetic mean of the yhijk values in the hijth ssu.
A combined unbiased estimator of Yh is the arithmetic mean

VhO ~ Vhi
h i^i

Nh v Mhi Qhij
- —7 ,----- 7 >-------> , yhijk (20.83)
nh

For all the strata combined, an unbiased estimator of the total Y is the
sum of the estimators of the stratum totals
L 1\T U mh ■ /Q
y= = (20-84)
z—' nh TUhi Qhii
h-1 h-1 n i=l nt j = l k=l

20.3.4 Estimation of the variances of the sample estimators of totals

An unbiased variance estimator of the stratum total estimator ?/^0 is

Sk0 = l^^hi - y/io)2/nh(nh ~ 1) (20.85)

and that of the universe total estimator y

L
(20.86)
342 Chapter 20

20.3.5 Estimation of the ratio of the totals of two study variables

For another study variable, the stratum and universe totals may be defined
and estimated similarly. An unbiased estimator x^Q of the stratum total
Xh is obtained as for y^Q (equation (20.83)), as also its unbiased variance
estimator s2. (by equation (20.85)). For the whole universe, an unbiased
estimator x is obtained in the same manner as for y (equation (20.84)), as
also its unbiased variance estimator (equation (20.86)).
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the ratio of the stratum
totals Rh = Yh/Xh is the ratio of the sample estimators

rh = y*ho/xho (20.87)

with a variance estimator

(20.88)

where

sytoxl0 = 52^
* _ VhoXA - xho)/nh(nh - 1) (20.89)

is an unbiased covariance estimator of y^0 and x^Q.

For the whole universe, a consistent but generally unbiased estimator of
the ratio of totals R = Y/X is the ratio of the sample estimators

r — y/x (20.90)

with a variance estimator

sr = (sy + ~ 2rsyx)/x2 (20.91)

where
L
Syz = (20.92)

is an unbiased covariance estimator of y and x.

20.3.6 Estimation of the means of a study variable

For the estimation of the means of a study variable in a three-stage srs in
any stratum, see section 15.6.5, and for the estimation of the means per
fsu and ssu in all the strata combined, see sections 20.2.7(a) and 20.2.7(b).
We consider here the estimating method for the mean per tsu for the whole
universe.
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 343

Two situations will arise: (i) the total number of the tsu’s Qhij is known
for all the ssu’s in the universe; and (ii) Qhij is known only for the sample
ssu’s.

(i) Unbiased estimator. When Qhij is known for all the ssu’s in the
universe, an unbiased estimator of the universe mean per tsu Y is
. / L Nh Mht \
(20.93)

with an unbiased variance estimator

, / L Nh Mht \ 2
s2y/
(20.94)

An unbiased estimator y of Y is defined by equation (20.84), and its unbi­

ased variance estimator s2 by equation (20.86).

(ii) Ratio estimator. When Qhij is known only for the sample ssu’s,
an unbiased estimator of the total number of tsu’s in the universe, namely,
Y2Mh' Qhij, is given by an estimation equation of the type (20.84)
by putting yhijk — 1 for the sample tsu’s, i.e. by

Q = 52 qho (20.95)

with an unbiased variance estimator

L
(20.96)

where
Qho = ¿9hi/nh
(20.97)

Qhi ~ j Qhij (20.98)

mhi

and

= “ îho)2/nh(nh - 1) (20.99)
344 Chapter 20

A consistent but generally biased estimator of Y is the ratio

r — y/q (20.100)

with a variance estimator

sr = (sy + r2s? - 2rs!/g)/92 (20.101)

where
L

Syt! ~
L nh
= ~ yhoWhi - Qho)/nh(nh - 1) (20.102)

(iii) Unweighted mean of means. An estimator of Y is the simple (un­

weighted) mean of means,
L nh mh, I / L nh \
EEE^/(EEm‘J (20.103)

where yhij is the sample mean in the hijth ssu (equation (20.82)).
This estimator will be both biased and inconsistent: it will be unbiased
and consistent when the design is self-weighting.
For a comparison of the estimators and other observations, see notes to
section 15.6.5.

20.3.7 Estimation for sub-universes

Here also, unbiased estimators are obtained for the total values of a study
variable in the sub-universe E/ in the hth stratum or for all the strata taken
together Y' by defining

y'hijk = yhijk if the hijkth third-stage sample unit belongs to the

sub-universe
y'hijk = 0 otherwise.
Unbiased variance estimators of the totals are similarly obtained.

20.3.8 Estimation of proportion of units

Here we combine the methods of section 10.3 for a stratified single-stage
srs and section 15.8 for an unstratified three-stage srs. Let Q'hij be the
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 345

total number of third-stage units possessing a certain attribute in the Jth

ssu in the zth fsu in the /ith stratum (h. = 1,2,...,L; i = 1,2,...,
j = 1,2,..., Mhi)- The total number of such units in the /iith fsu is
Mht
X,Qkii (20.104)

in the /ith stratum

Nh Mhl
(20 105)

and in the whole universe

L Nh Mht
(20.106)

The proportion of such tsu’s with the attribute in the hith fsu is
Mh. . Mhl
Pki = Y,Q'hi <20 107>

in the /ith stratum

Nh Mht . Nh
= (20 108)
' Mhl

and in the whole universe

L Nh Mhi I L Nh Mhi
(20 109)

Here again, as in section 15.6 for an unstratified three-stage srs, unbiased

estimators of the total number of tsu’s in the /ith stratum and in the whole
universe can be obtained respectively from equations (20.83) and (20.84)
by putting yhijk = 1 if the third-stage sample unit has the attribute, and 0
otherwise. And so also for their unbiased variance estimators.
For estimating the proportion of the third-stage units possessing the
attribute in any stratum, we use the method of section 15.8 for an unstrat­
ified three-stage srs, adding the subscript h for the /ith stratum. For all the
strata combined, an unbiased estimator of the total number of such units
is

= 52 qh0 (20.110)
346 Chapter 20

with an unbiased variance estimator

L L nh
s9' = 52 = 52 5>£ ~ q'ho)2/nh(nh -1) (20.111)
where
q'ho = ^q'hi/nh
(20.112)
and
„ Mhi Qhij ,
(20.113)

q'hij being the number of tsu’s possessing the attribute out of the sample
number qhij of tsu’s in the jth ssu in the zth fsu in the /ith stratum.
If all the Qhij values are known for the universe, then the unbiased
estimator of the universe proportion P (equation (20.109)) is
, / L Nh Mhl \
«/iEEEO'-d (20114)
with an unbiased variance estimator
, / l Nh MKt \ 2
*./ (EEE«^) <20115)

22^ ^Mh' Qhij is not known, it is estimated unbiasedly by q

(equation (20.95)), with an unbiased variance estimator given by equation
(20.96).
A consistent but generally biased estimator of the universe proportion
P is the ratio
p = q'/q (20.116)
with a variance estimator
Sp = (Sq' +P2sq - 2ps?'?)/tf2 (20.117)
where
L
SW' - Z2
L nh
= (20118)
is an unbiased covariance estimator of q and q'.
See notes to section 10.3 and 15.8.
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 347

Example 20.3

In Table 20.2 are given the number of adults in the sample households in each of
the two sample villages, selected from the three states. In each selected household,
one adult member (18 years or over) was further selected at random from the total
number of adults in the household, and asked if he/she agrees to an increase in
state taxes for education. The information is given also in Table 20.2. Estimate
the total number of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for education
and the proportion they constitute of the total number of adults in each of the
three states and also in all the states combined, along with their standard errors.
Extending the notation of Example 20.1, let QhtJ (= ih.j in Example 20.1)
denote the total number of adults in the ijth sample household in the hth stratum.
The number of adults selected for the interview (i.e. the number of third-stage
sample units) is qhtJ — 1. We can therefore dispense with the subscript k in yhijk
by which we had denoted the value of the study variable for the ijkth third-stage
sample unit in the hth stratum.
Following the method of section 20.3.8, we put = 1 if the selected adult
in the ijth sample household in the hth stratum agrees to an increase in state
taxes for education, and q'hij = 0 otherwise.
From estimating equation (20.113), we have an unbiased estimator of the
stratum total of the number of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for
education

=Nh —
mhi

from the ith first-stage unit (here a village) in the hth stratum. The required
computations follow the methods of section 20.3.8, and are shown in Tables 20.10-
20.12, and the final results in Table 20.13.

20.3.9 Ratio method of estimation

As for a stratified two-stage srs (section 20.2.10) so also for a stratified three-
stage srs, the ratio method of estimation may, under favorable conditions,
improve the efficiency of estimators.
The procedures are the same as for stratified two-stage srs, given in
section 20.2.10, except that the unbiased estimator of the stratum total Zh
of the ancillary variable will be computed on the basis of the appropriate
estimating equation, namely, an equation of the type (20.83), thus:

From the ¿th fsu:

(20.119)
348 Chapter 20

Table 20.10: Computation of the estimated total number of adults who

agree to an increase in state taxes for education from a stratified three-
stage srs with two sample first-stage units (villages) in each stratum: data
of Table 20.2

State Number of Sample For the number of adults who agree to an

villages village increase in state taxes for education

h Total Sample i £7=1 9?. =

■
Nh Tlh Qhij <7h,? Q h ?h ij NhMkl ■ Col.(6)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 10 2 1 3 0.6 108
2 2 0.4 88

Total 196
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 93(0
Difference 20(d,/h)
|Difference| ( = estimated standard error) 10(V. )
’ho

II 11 2 1 3 0.6 132
2 2 0.4 79.2

Total 211.1
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 105.6(0
Difference 52.8(d,,h)
j ¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 26.4(3 )
nO

III 9 2 1 4 0.8 151.2

2 3 0.6 97.2

Total 284.4
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 124.2(0
Difference 54.0(0)
j ¡Difference! (= estimated standard error) 27.0(3 )
’ho
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 349

Table 20.11: Computation of the estimated total numbers of adults who

agree to an increase in state taxes for education and their variances: data
of Tables 20.2 and 20.10

State Number of adults who agree to an increase

in states taxes for education

Estimate Standard Variance

Error
h QhO qh0

I 98.0 10.0 100.00

II 105.6 26.4 696.96
III 124.2 27.0 729.00

All states 327.8 39.05 1525.96

(<?') («<?') (^)

Table 20.12: Computation of the estimated proportion of adults who agree

to an increase in state taxes for education and their variances

+p2hSko~
State Ph = Sx
* a'
*
XhOqhO
— SPK =
HhO hO
h 9ho/XhO 4 dxhdq/fa col. (4)/r‘2

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

I 0.2344 -220.00 229.728896 0.00131481

II 0.1678 1974.72 191.783509 0.00048433
III 0.2289 656.10 459.576144 0.00156047

Total 0.2062 2410.82 815.312908 0.00032254

(p) (Sx9') (s2 +p2s2 - 2psxql) Sp = col.(4)/x2
350 Chapter 20

Table 20.13: Estimated numbers and proportions of adults who agree to an

increase in state taxes for education, computed from the data of a stratified
three-stage srs in Table 20.2

Adults who agree to an increase State I State II State III All states
in state taxes for education combined

(a) Number
Estimate 98.0 105.6 124.2 327.8
Standard error 10.0 26.4 27.0 39.05
Coefficient of variation (%) 11.36 25.00 21.74 11.91

(b) Proportion to total adults

Estimate 0.2344 0.1678 0.2289 0.2062
Standard error 0.03626 0.02201 0.03950 0.01796
Coefficient of variation (%) 15.47 13.12 9.62 8.71

From all the fsu’s:

*;» = (2012°)

where Zhijk is the value of the ancillary variable in the hijkth selected
third-stage unit.
An unbiased variance estimator of z^0 will be given by an estimating
equation of the type (20.85).

Example 20.4

For the data of Example 20.3, given the additional information on the previous
census population of all the villages as in Example 20.2, obtain ratio estimates of
the number of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for education in the
three states separately and also combined, along with their standard errors.
Here the ratio method is applied, as in Example 20.2, at the level of the
first-stage units. The unbiased estimates of the previous census population in
the three states have already been obtained in Example 10.2, along with their
standard errors.
We define
r3h = Qho/zh0

as the ratio of the combined unbiased estimator of the stratum number of adults
who agree to an increase in states taxes for education ^Nk Qhij t° that of
the stratum estimator of the previous census population Zh- The computations
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 351

follow the methods of sections 20.3.10 and 20.2.11 and are shown in Table 20.14.
The final results are given in Table 20.15.

Note: The ratio estimates obtained are more efficient than the unbiased estimates
of the number of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for education in
Table 20.13. There is no marked difference between the separate and combined
ratio estimates for the whole universe.

20.4 Miscellaneous Notes

1. Stratified four- and higher-stage srs. Estimating procedures can be

derived for stratified four- and higher-stage srs either directly from the
general estimating procedures given in section 19.3 or by extending
the procedures for a stratified three-stage design given in section 20.3.
All that is required are the unbiased estimators of the stratum totals of
the study variables, from which estimators of ratios, means, variances
etc. follow.
2. Gain due to stratification. As for stratified srs (section 10.6), so also
for stratified multi-stage srs, it is possible to estimate the gain, if any,
due to stratification, as compared with an unstratified srs with the
same total number of ultimate-stage units. For this, see Sukhatme et
al. (1984), section 8.13.
3. Stratification after sampling. The same principles as for a single-
stage srs, given in section 10.7, hold for multi-stage srs. If the sample
number of first-stage units is large, say over twenty in each stratum,
and the errors in weights negligible, the method of post-stratification
can give results almost as precise as proportional stratified sampling.
4. Stratification at lower stages of samples. As observed in note 2 of sec­
tion 9.2, stratification may be introduced at different stages of sam­
pling. In household budgets and consumption surveys, for example,
households are often stratified on the basis of size or a rough mea­
sure of the total income (which information can be readily obtained
while listing all the households in the selected penultimate stages),
and the required number of sample households selected from the dif­
ferent strata with a different sampling fraction in each. The same
principles for estimation outlined earlier will apply in such cases.

Further reading
Foreman, section 8.6; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and II, chapters 7-10; Kish
(1965), sections 5.6, 6.4, and 6.5; Singh and Chaudhary, section 9.5; Sukhatme et
al. (1984), sections 8.11 and 8.13.
352 Chapter 20

Table 20.14: Computation of ratio estimates of the total number of adults

who agree to an increase in state taxes for education for a stratified three-
stage srs: data of Tables 20.2, 10.8, and 10.9

State zh r3K = ?hR — s< = %'•

+
!h^«
* -
Zhr3h ±dq,kd,h
’hO hO
2r3hsq'
*
Mh0 hO

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

I 863 0.1217 105.03 50.0 88.200275 9.39

II 1010 0.1043 105.34 1676.4 394.221928 19.86
III 942 0.1321 124.44 1822.5 327.002062 18.08

Total 2815 334.81 3548.9 809.424265 28.45

Ohs) ) (%' )
HRS
HRS

Combined 2815 0.1164 327.67 3548.9 920.866880 30.35

(Z) (r3 = q'/z) (?RC = (V.) = )
*RC
2 2
Zr3)
2r3V«)

Table 20.15: Ratio estimates of number of adults who agree to an increase

in state taxes for education

State Ratio Standard CV(%)

estimate error

I 105.0 9.39 8.94

II 105.3 19.86 18.86
III 124.4 18.08 14.53

All states:
Separate ratio estimate 334.8 28.45 8.50
Combined ratio estimate 327.7 30.35 9.26
Stratified Multi-stage Simple Random Sampling 353

Exercises

1. For a survey on the yield of corn in a district, the villages were grouped
into 10 strata, and from each stratum two villages were selected at random.
From each selected village, two fields were selected at random from all fields
on which corn was grown. In each selected field, a rectangular plot of area
1/160 acre was located at random, and the yield of corn in the plot was
measured in ounces. The sample data are given in Table 20.16, which also
shows for each stratum the area under corn. Estimate for the district the
total yield of corn and its standard error (Chakravarti et al., Exercise 3.6,
adapted).

Table 20.16: Yield of corn in sample plots

Stratum Area under Yield of corn (oz. from plot of acre)

no. com (acres) Sample Village 1 Sample Village 2
Plot 1 Plot 2 Plot 1 Plot 2

1 2767 90 102 346 166

2 1577 87 69 85 99
3 1778 82 195 40 236
4 6669 206 176 63 110
5 368 60 72 58 67
6 2875 28 241 120 34
7 5305 367 378 339 328
8 7219 48 236 208 180
9 3782 198 241 195 149
10 1457 32 148 160 112

Source: Chakravarti et al., Exercise 3.6 (adapted).

2. For the same data of Example 20.1, estimate for all the states combined
the average number of adults per household and its standard error.
3. For the data of Example 20.2, estimate the average household size from
the separate ratio estimates of number of persons and households and its
standard error.
CHAPTER 21

Stratified Multi-stage Varying

Probability Sampling

21.1 Introduction

In this chapter, we will consider the estimating procedures for a strati­

fied multi-stage sample with varying probabilities of selection: the meth­
ods combine those for a stratified single-stage varying probability sample
(Chapter 11) and for an unstratified multi-stage varying probability sample
(Chapter 16). The estimating methods follow from the fundamental theo­
rems of section 19.3 for a stratified multi-stage varying probability sample.
The general estimating procedures for stratified two- and three-stage
designs will be considered first, followed by stratified two- and three-stage
designs with pps at the first stage or the first two stages and srs at other
stages. The special cases of crop survey will also be mentioned.
The method of ratio estimation and the estimating procedures for pro­
portion of units and sub-universe etc. can be derived on similar lines as
those for stratified multi-stage srs.

21.2 Stratified two- and three-stage pps designs

21.2.1 General

The general estimating equations for totals of study variables and the ratio
of two totals, as well as those for their respective variances, follow from the
general estimating equations in section 19.3. The cases of stratified two-
and three-stage pps designs are mentioned briefly.

355
356 Chapter 21

Table 21.1: Sampling plan for a stratified two-stage pps sample design with
replacement. In the hth stratum (h = 1,2,... , L)

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(t) universe sample method probability

1 First-stage Nh nh ppswr h,/Zh

’’’hl = * nh ’’hi
2 Second-stage mh. ppswr — Whij/Whi TO h 1 It h 1 j

21.2.2 Two-stage pps design

The structure of a stratified two-stage design is given in Table 21.1. The uni­
verse is sub-divided into L strata, and in the hth stratum (h = 1,2,... ,£),
a sample of nh first-stage units is selected out of the total Nh units with pps
(and replacement), the (initial) probability of selection of the ¿th first-stage
unit (¿ = 1,2,..., Nh) at any draw being
nhi = Xhi/Zh (21.1)
where z^, is the value (“size”) of an ancillary variable Zh = zhi being
known. In each of the first-stage units thus selected, a sample (i =
1,2,...,n/j) of second-stage units is selected with pps (and replacement)
from the total Mhi units, the initial probability of selection of the jth
second-stage unit (j = 1,2,... yNh) being
TThij = Whij/Whi (21.2)
where Whij is the value of another ancillary variable, and Whi = whij ■

The universe totals and means are defined as for a stratified two-stage
srs in section 20.2.1.
If Uhij is the value of the study variable in the jth selected ssu in the
¿th selected fsu in the hth stratum (i = 1,2,..., nn; j = 1,2,..., mhi), then
from equation (16.3) or (19.21), an unbiased estimator of the stratum total
Yh (as defined by equation (20.3)) from the ¿th selected fsu is
-t ™ht ryr tit
. _L_y = (213)
hij
WTO/m “ * Zhmhi whij

and a combined unbiased estimator of Yh from all the fsu’s is the arith­
metic mean
* X ♦ (21.4)
nh
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 357

with an unbiased variance estimator

sk0 = lL№i - yho)2/nh(nh - 1) (21.5)

For the whole universe, an unbiased estimator of the total Y =

is
L
V= (216)

with an unbiased variance estimator

= <217)

Estimators of the ratios of totals of two study variables and their vari­
ances follow directly from the fundamental theorems of section 19.3.

Notes
1. Sampling variance of the estimator y. From equation (16.6) the sampling
variance in ppswr at both stages is

which is estimated unbiasedly by s2» , defined by equation (21.5).

The sampling variance of y is
L
a 2y (21.9)

which is estimated unbiasedly by Sy, defined by equation (21.7).

2. As noted in section 16.2.1, great simplifications result if the same size vari­
able is used for pps sampling in both the stages.

21.2.3 Three-stage pps design

The sampling plan for a stratified three-stage pps design is given in sum­
mary form in Table 21.2. If yhijk is the value of the study variable in the
fcth selected third stage unit of the jth selected second-stage unit of the ith
selected first-stage unit in the /rth stratum (h = 1,2,... , L\ i — 1,2,... ,
358 Chapter 21

Table 21.2: Sampling plan for a stratified three-stage pps sample design
with replacement. In the hth stratum (h = 1,2,..., ¿)

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(*
) universe sample method probability

1 First-stage /Vh r>h ppswr i — h i /z h rihlTh.

2 Second-stage ppswr *h.<j = Wh.j/Wh,
3 Third-stage Qhij ppswr * hi jk — ^htjk/^hij Çhij^’htjk

j = 1,2,..., mhik = 1,2,..., qhij), then from the general estimating equa­
tion (19.21) or from equation (16.12), an unbiased estimator of the stratum
total Yh, obtained from the ith selected fsu is
1 1
E ^htj qhij
r7 XXr t/ Qhij
¿h Whi Vhij V-'' Vhijk
(21.10)
^hi^hi VhijIt

and a combined unbiased estimator is

(2111)
with an unbiased variance estimator

Sy'h0 = ^L^hi - Uho)2/nh(.nh. ~ 1) (21.12)

h=l

where Zh = *1
z^i', Whi = £^= whij', and Vhij = X>k=i vhijk-
For the whole universe, an unbiased estimator of the total Y is
L

P = ¿L !^o
with an unbiased variance estimator
L
(21.14)
Estimators of the ratios of totals of two study variables and their vari­
ances follow directly from the fundamental theorems of section 19.3.

Note: As noted in section 16.2.2, great simplifications result if the same size
variable is used for pps sampling in all the three stages.
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 359

Table 21.3: Sampling plan for a stratified two-stage design with pps sam­
pling at the first-stage and srs at the second-stage. In the /ith stratum

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection /<

(t) universe sample method probability

1 First-stage Nk ppswr *hi = zhl/Zh nh

*
hx
2 Second-stage Mh, mhi srs Equal = 1/Afh,

21.3 Stratified two-stage design with pps and srs

21.3.1 General case

We illustrate this with a sampling plan for a rural sample survey, where in
each stratum into which the universe is divided, villages are the first-stage
units selected with ppswr (the “size” being population in a previous census
for a demographic inquiry and area for a crop survey) and households or
fields the second-stage units selected as an srs or systematically (Table
21.3). This is a very common type of nation-wide sample inquiries.
An unbiased estimator of the /ith stratum total Yh (h = 1,2,... ,2^),
obtained from the ¿th fsu (i = 1,2,..., n^) is (from equation (21.3))
mhl
Mhi Mhi
Vhi = yhi (21.15)
^hi^hi
j=l

where yhij is the value of the study variable in the jth selected ssu (house­
hold or field) or the ¿th selected fsu (village) in the /ith stratum, and
mh,
Uhi = ^yhij/mhi (21.16)
j =i

is the mean of the yhij values in the /¿¿th sample fsu.

The combined unbiased estimator of Yh is
fix
v^ = Y,^n'- (2117>

and an unbiased estimator of the overall total Y is

L
(21.18)
360 Chapter 21

Unbiased variance estimators of the stratum and the universe estimators

of totals are given by equations (19.23) and (19.25) respectively: estimation
of ratios of two totals and their variances follow from the methods of section
19.3. These will be illustrated by Examples 21.1 and 21.2.

21.3.2 First-stage units selected with probability proportional to the

number of second-stage units

If Mm, the number of ssu’s, is known beforehand for all the fsu’s, and
the rih fsu’s in the hth stratum are selected with probability proportional
to Mhi, then, as shown in section 16.3.2 for one stratum, the estimating
procedure becomes simpler.

Example 21.1

In each of the two sample villages selected in each of the three states in Example
11.1 from the list of villages in Appendix IV with probability proportional to pre­
vious census population and with replacement, select five households at random,
given the listing of the households in the sample villages. On the basis of the col­
lected data for the sample households on the size and number of adults (persons
aged eighteen years or over), estimate the total number of persons, the number
and the proportion of adults for three states separately and also combined, along
with their standard errors. The sample data are given in Table 21.4. The use of
the last column will be illustrated in Example 21.3.
As there are two sample first-stage units, i.e. villages, in each stratum, we
follow, as in Example 20.1, the simplified procedures mentioned in note 2 of
section 19.3, illustrated also in Example 11.1 for the stratified single-stage pps
sampling. As in Example 20.1, we denote by yh,} the household size and by XhtJ
the number of adults in the sample households (h = 1,2, 3 for the states; i = 1,2
for the sample villages; and j = 1,2, 3,4, 5 for the sample households): note that
in Example 11.1 the total number of households in a sample village was denoted
by ihi, which we denote here by Mhi, and the sample number by mhi- Unbiased
estimates of the total number of households in the three states separately and
combined have already been obtained in Example 11.1, along with their standard
errors. These, along with the other required computations, are shown in Tables
21.5-21.7, and the final estimates in Table 21.8.
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 361

Table 21.4: Size, number of adults (18 years or over), and agreement of the
selected adult to an increase in state taxes for education

Household Household size Number Agreement of the selected

serial no. (j/h,>) of adults adult to an increase in
(Xhij) state taxes for education
= 1 for Yes;
= 0 for No)

State I: Village serial rio. 5; total number of households = 24

1 5 2 0
6 5 2 0
16 4 2 1
18 6 3 0
22 3 2 0

State I: Village serial no. 7; total number of households = 20

4 5 3 1
8 4 2 0
13 5 3 0
16 4 2 0
18 4 2 0

State II: Village serial no. 3; total number of households = 17

3 5 3 0
5 6 3 0
7 3 2 0
14 5 2 1
15 3 2 0

State II: Village seriell :no. 7; total number of households = 19

4 3 1 0
12 6 4 0
14 7 4 0
16 5 3 1
18 5 2 0

State III : Village serial no. 2; total number of households = 21

3 5 3 0
5 6 3 0
11 6 4 1
14 5 2 0
15 8 5 0

State III : Village serial no. 4; total number of households = 21

7 5 2 0
8 6 3 1
12 5 3 0
13 7 3 0
15 8 5 0
 362 Chapter 21

Table 21.5: Computation of the estimated total number of persons and

adults: data of Tables 11.2 and 21.9

State Sample Reciprocal of Total number = For number of persons

village probability of households
Mk, EU, y»>. = Vh. =
yh.j (Afh./xhjÿh.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

I 1 9.3804 24 225.1296 23 4.6 1035.60
2 11.9861 20 239.7220 22 4.4 1054.78

Total 464.8516 2090.38

Mean (= Stratum estimate of total) 232.45 1045.19
(mIo) (vZo)
Difference -14.59 — 19.18
(^)
* |Difference|(= Estimated standard error) 7.295 9.59
hO
) „• Vh0 )
(*

II 1 13.8356 17 235.2052 22 4.4 1034.90

2 11.8824 19 225.7656 26 5.2 1173.98

Total 460.9708 2208.88

Mean (= Stratum estimate of total) 230.49 1104.44
(mIo) (vlo)
Difference 9.44 —139.08
(dmh) (dvk)
* |Difference|(= Estimated standard error) 4.72 69.54
(»«• ) *(»V )
vh0

III 1 8.4107 21 176.6247 30 6.0 1059.75

2 8.0513 21 169.0773 31 6.2 1048.28

Total 345.7020 2108.03

Mean (= Stratum estimate of total) 172.85 1054.02
(mso) (Vlo)
Difference 7.55 11.73
*»)
(< (dyh)
% |Difference|(= Estimated standard error) 3.775 5.865
(»m-hO ) *
('y )

(continued)

t These are the estimated number of households in Tables 11.2, denoted by x^t.
In the present example, denotes the estimated numbers of adults, and
those of households.
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 363

Table 21.5 continued

State Sample For number of adults

village
s.,«».ij — xh. =

(Affc./Thjrh,

(1) (2) (S) (io) (11)

I 1 11 2.2 495.29
2 12 2.4 575.33

Total 1070.62
Mean ( = Stratum estimate of total) 535.31
(<o)
Difference -80.04
(d»n)
j |Difference|( = Estimated standard error) 40.02
(5r* )
h.0

II 1 12 2.4 564.49
2 14 2.8 620.26

Total 1184.75
Mean (:= Stratum estimate of total) 592.38
(rho)
Difference — 55.47
(<U)
j |DifFerence|(:= Estimated standard error) 27.885
(»<„ )
hO

III 1 17 3.4 600.52

2 16 3.2 541.05

Total 1141.57
Mean (:= Stratum estimate of total) 570.78
(rho)
Difference 59.47
(¿xh )
j |Difference!(:= Estimated standard error) 29.735
•(»
* )
ho
 364
Table 21.6: Computation of estimated numbers of households, persons and adults: data of Tables
21.4 and 21.5

State Number of households^ Number of persons Number of adults

h
Estimate S.E. Variance Estimate S.E. Variance Estimate S.E. Variance
m*h0 s _• VhO »„• xh0 Sx*ho
A
HO y>l0 vh0 XH0

I 232.43 7.295 53.2170 1045.19 9.59 91.9681 535.31 40.020 1601.6004

II 230.49 4.720 22.2784 1104.44 69.54 4835.8116 592.38 27.885 777.5732
III 172.85 3.775 14.2506 1054.02 5.865 34.3982 570.78 29.735 884.1702

All states 635.77 9.473 89.7460 3203.65 70.443 4962.1779 1698.47 57.126 3263.3438
combined (m) ('m) ('m) (y) (',) (»$) (r) ('x) (¿)

1 Also from Example 11.1.

Chapter 21
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 365

Table 21.7: Computation of estimated ratios and variances: data of Table

21.5

State For the household size

'I- +r2<- -
rh = *
S*h0
V * ho
m =
vh0 hO sk =
Vho/mlo I dyhdmh. *
2rhSy *
m col.(4)/m^
‘'hO hO

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

I 4.497 70.0070 538.5325 0.009971

II 4.791 -328.2288 8493.3551 0.159859
III 6.100 22.1116 541.1492 0.018123

All states 5.039 -255.0108 9811.2035 0.024278

combined / a;
( . r 2 S2m
2 + (¿)
(r) (J»m)
-2rsym)

State For the proportion of adults

Ph = V m * =
y?i0 hO hO yh0
xho/yho | dyhdXh 2Ph,<0^0 col(8)/Vho

(1) (6) (7) (8) (9)

I 0.5122 383.8398 1232.9229 0.00112859

II 0.5363 139.9123 2018.3693 0.00165480
III 0.5416 174.3958 705.3547 0.00063493

All states 0.5302 698.1479 3918.3563 0.00038179

combined (p) (¿+P2‘v
— 2psyX)
366 Chapter 21

Table 21.8: Estimates and standard errors computed from the data of strat­
ified two-stage (pps and srs) design in Table 21.4

Item State I State II State III All states

combined

1. Number of households^
(a) Estimate 232.4 230.5 172.8 635.8
(b) Standard error 7.30 4.72 3.78 9.47
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 3.14 2.05 2.18 1.49

2. Number of persons
(a) Estimate 1045.2 1104.4 1054.0 3203.6
(b) Standard error 9.59 69.54 5.86 70.44
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 0.92 6.30 0.56 2.20

3. Number of adults
(a) Estimate 535.3 592.4 570.8 1698.5
(b) Standard error 40.02 27.88 29.74 57.13
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 7.48 4.71 5.21 3.36

4. Average household size

(a) Estimate 4.50 4.79 6.10 5.04
(b) Standard error 0.0999 0.3998 0.1346 0.1558
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 2.22 8.34 2.21 2.61

5. Proportion of adults
(a) Estimate 0.5122 0.5363 0.5416 0.5302
(b) Standard error 0.0336 0.0407 0.0252 0.0195
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 6.56 7.59 4.65 3.69

1 Also from Example 11.1.

Example 21.2

For estimating the total yield of paddy in a district, a stratified two-stage sample
design was adopted, where four villages were selected from each stratum, with
ppswr, the “size” being the geographical area, and four plots were selected from
each sample village circular systematically for ascertaining the yield of paddy.
Using the data given in Table 21.9, estimate unbiasedly the total yield of paddy
in the district and its standard error (Murthy (1967), Problem 9.7).
The required computations are given in Tables 21.10 and 21.11 denoting by
yhtj the yield of paddy (in kilograms) in the jth sample plot of the ith sample
village of the hth stratum (/¿ = 1,2,3, for the strata, i = 1,2,3, 4 for the sample
villages, and j = 1,2, 3,4 for the sample plots).
The estimated total yield of paddy in the district is 3976 tonnes (1 tonne =
1000 kg). The estimated standard error of estimate of this total is ^/(118, 352) =
344 tonnes, i.e. a CV of 8.65 per cent.
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 367

Table 21.9: Yield of paddy in sample plots, selected circular systemati­

cally in the sample villages, and selected with probability proportional to
geographical area in each of the three strata of a district

Stratum Sample Reciprocal of Total Yield of paddy (in kg) Vh.j

village probability number of
plots 1 2 3 4
h i I/ttji. Mh.

I 1 440.21 28 104 182 148 87

2 660.43 14 108 64 132 156
3 31.50 240 100 115 50 172
4 113.38 76 346 350 157 119
II 1 21.00 256 124 111 135 216
2 16.80 288 123 177 106 138
3 24.76 222 264 78 144 55
4 49.99 69 300 114 68 111
III 1 67.68 189 110 281 120 114
2 339.14 42 80 61 118 124
3 100.00 134 121 212 174 106
4 68.07 161 243 116 314 129

Source: Murthy (1969), Problem 9.7.

21.4 Stratified three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs

The example of section 21.3 will be extended in this section by taking a

simple random sample of qhij third-stage units out of the total number
Qhij of such units in the selected jth ssu of the selected zth fsu in the /ith
stratum (h = 1, 2,..., L; i = 1,2,..., j = 1,2,..., m/,,). The sampling
plan is shown in summary form in Table 21.12.
An unbiased estimator of the stratum total Yh (as defined by equation
(20.3)), obtained from the ¿th sample fsu is, from equation (16.25) or (19.21)
or (21.10),

Mhi
y*hi =
^hi
mht
Mhi
~ Qhijyhij (21.19)
'^hi^h * ¿=1

where yhijk is the value of the study variable in the fcth selected tsu of the
jth selected ssu of the ¿th selected fsu in the /ith stratum (h = 1,2,... ,L;
368 Chapter 21

Table 21.10: Computation of the estimated total yield of paddy: data of

Table 21.9

Stratum Sample (Mh,/irht)

=i yh'J yh, = Vh. = (A/h./’rh.)’/h,
h village (kg) 1 V4 (tonnes;
: (kg) 1 tonne = 1000 kg)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

I 1 12 325.88 521 130.25 1605

2 9246.03 460 115.00 1063
3 7560.00 437 109.25 826
4 8616.88 972 243.00 2094

Total 5588
Mean ( = stratum estimate of total) 1397
(vlo)

II 1 5376.00 586 146.50 788

2 4838.40 544 136.00 658
3 5496.72 541 135.25 743
4 3449.31 593 148.25 511

Total 2700
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 675
(vio)

III 1 12791.52 625 156.25 1999

2 14 243.88 383 95.75 1364
3 13400.00 613 153.25 2054
4 10 959.27 802 200.50 2197

Total 7614
Mean (= stratum estimate of total) 1903.5
(Vio)
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 369

Table 21.11: Computation of the estimated variance of the estimated total

yield of paddy: data of Tables 21.9 and 21.10

Stratum h0
*
V ssy
* h, = A =
h col. (3) - SSy
* hJ\2
col. (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

I 1397.0 8773.106 7806.436 966.670 80 555.83

II 675.0 1867.078 1822.500 44.578 3714.83
III 1903.5 14902.222 14 493.249 408.973 34 081.08

Total 3975.5 118351.74

(y)

Table 21.12: Sampling plan for a three-stage design with pps sampling at
the first stage, and srs at the second and third stages. In the hth stratum
(fc = l,2,...,£)

Stage Unit No. in No. in Selection Selection ft

(0 universe sample method probability

1 First-stage
(village) nh ppswr
2 Second-stage
(household or
field) mh, srswr Equal = 1/Mhi
3 Third-stage
(person or
plot) Qhij Qhij srswr Equal = 1/Qh.j Qhlj / Qh.}
370 Chapter 21

i = 1,2,... ,nh-, j = 1,2,..., mhl\ k = 1,2,. .. ,qhij) and

~ y ^yhijk/qhij (21.20)
k= 1

is the arithmetic mean of the yhijk values in the hijth ssu.

A combined unbiased estimator of is

y'M = Y^ln» (21.21)

and an unbiased estimator of the universe total Y is
L
y = Y,^o <21'22)

Unbiased variance estimators of y^0 and y are given respectively by es­

timating equations (19.23) and (19.25). An estimator of the ratio of the
totals of two study variables and its variance estimator follow from esti­
mating equations (19.11)-(19.14). These will be illustrated with Examples
21.3 and 21.4.

Example 21.3

In Table 21.3 are given the number of adults in the sample households, randomly
selected out of the total number of households in each of the two sample villages,
selected with pps from the three states. In each selected household, one adult
member (eighteen years or over) was further selected at random from the total
number of adults in the households and asked if he/she agrees to an increase in
state taxes for education. The information is given also in Table 21.4. Estimate
the total number of adults who agree to an increase in state taxes for education
and also the proportion they constitute of the total number of adults in each of
the three states and in all the states combined, along with their standard errors.
Extending the notation of Example 21.1, let Qhij (= Xhij in Example 21.1)
denote the total number of adults in the ijth sample household in the Ztth stratum.
The number of adults selected for interview (i.e. the number of third-stage sample
units) is qhi} = 1. We can therefore dispense with the subscript k in yhijk by
which we had denoted the value of the study variable for the ijkth third-stage
sample unit in the hth stratum.
Similar to the procedures adopted in Examples 16.2 and 20.3, we put q'hlJ — 1
if the selected adult in the ijth sample household in the hth stratum agrees to
an increase in state taxes for education, and 0 otherwise.
From estimating equation (21.19), we have an unbiased estimator of the stra­
tum total Q'h, of the number of adults with knowledge of development plans
1» Mhi
7 hi —
TThi ^hi
j=l
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 371

from the ith first-stage unit (i.e. village) in the /ith stratum. The required
computations are shown in Tables 21.13-21.15, and the final results in Table
21.16.

Example 21.4

For the household inquiries in the Indian National Sample Survey (1953-4) in the
rural sector, the design was stratified three-stage. The total number of 2522 tehsils
were grouped into 240 strata on the basis of consumer expenditure (as estimated
in earlier surveys) and geographical continuity, such that each stratum contained
approximately equal population, as in the census of 1951. In each stratum, two
tehsils and in each selected tehsil, two sample villages, were selected, sampling at
both stages being with probability proportional to the 1951 Census population
or area and with replacement; within each selected village, nine households on
an average were selected by the enumerators systematically with a random start
from the lists of households in the village, which they had prepared on reaching
the villages. The sample comprised 8235 households and 49,177 persons.
With the previous notations, the reader will see that an unbiased estimator
of the stratum total Yh in the /ith stratum (Л = 1,2,..., 240), obtained from the
ith (i = 1,2) first-stage unit is (from equation (21.19))
2 4h IJ
>* i i v
"hi ~ о / j j yhJ'k
2 ТГ/ti * T^hijQhij
j=l k= l

where yhijk is the value of the study variable in the fcth selected third-stage unit
of the jth selected ssu of the ith selected fsu in the /ith stratum. A combined
unbiased estimator of Yh is

Ум — 2 (уhi + Ум)

and the unbiased estimator of the universe total Y = Y^h=i *s

240
У = У^Ум

h=l

Unbiased variance estimators of the stratum and the universe estimators of

totals are given by equations (19.23) and (19.25) respectively: estimators of ratios
of two totals and their variance estimators follow from section 19.3. As two fsu’s
are selected with replacement in each stratum, the simplified procedure of note 2
to section 19.3 could be used for the estimation of totals and ratios of totals and
their variances.
Some results are given in Table 21.17 on the rates of births, deaths, marriage,
and sickness. The coefficients of variations of the estimates are rather large, but
the sample was not designed specifically to provide demographic estimates: for
372 Chapter 21

Table 21.13: Computation of the estiamted total number of adults who

agree to an increase in state taxes for education from a stratified three-
stage design with two pps first-stage units (villages) in each stratum, srs
of second-stage units (households), and srs of one adult in the selected
households: data of Tables 11.2, 21.4, and 21.5

State
h
Sample
village
I2j=l i I2j = l ’H* -
(Mhl,/%h.)x
i col. (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

I 1 2 0.4 90.05
2 3 0.6 143.83

Total
Mean (= Stratum estimate of total)

Difference
j |Difference| (= Estimated standard error)

II 1 2 0.4 94.08
2 3 0.6 135.46

Total 299.54
Mean (= Stratum estimate of total) 114.77
Xo)
Difference -41.38
j |Difference| (= Estimated standard error) 20.69
(%- )

III 1 4 0.8 141.30

2 3 0.6 101.45

Total 242.75
Mean (= Stratum estimate of total) 121.38
(tfo)
Difference 39.85
|Difference| (= Estimated standard error) 19.925
*
(%' )
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 373

Table 21.14: Computation of the estimated total number of adults who

agree to an increase in state taxes: data of Tables 21.4 and 21.13

State Estimate Standard error Variance

h s2„
’hO

I 116.94 26.89 723.0721

II 114.77 20.69 428.0761
III 121.38 19.92 397.0056

All states 353.09 39.347 1548.1538

combined (<?') (Sq') (s2;)

Table 21.15: Computation of the estimated proportions of adults who agree

to an increase in state taxes for education and their variances

State Ph = sx
* a1* =
h0ghQ
2
"lh0
4-/2.2
Xh0
A=
Ph
| dxhdqih col. (4)/r
g
*
~2PhSx' o'
*

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

I 0.2185 1076.1378 329.2635 0.00114903

II 0.1937 576.9406 233.7438 0.00066610
III 0.2127 592.4699 184.9696 0.00056776

All states 0.2079 2254.5483 755.4598 0.00026189

combined (?') /2 ,/2 2 (<)
(^) (%' + P sx~
2P'Sxq')
374 Chapter 21

Table 21.16: Estimated numbers and proportions of adults who agree to an

increase in state taxes for education, computed from the data of stratified
three-stage (pps, srs, and srs) design in Table 21.9

Adults who agree to an State I State II State III All states

increase in states taxes combined
for education

1. Number
(a) Estimate 116.9 114.8 121.4 353.1
(b) Standard error 26.9 20.7 19.9 39.35
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 2.99 18.03 16.42 11.14

Proportion of total adults

(a) Estimate 0.2185 0.1937 0.2127 0.2079
(b) Standard error 0.0339 0.0258 0.0238 0.0162
(c) Coefficient of variation (%) 15.51 13.31 11.19 7.79

Table 21.17: Estimates of vital rates per 1000 persons: Indian National
Sample Survey, rural sector, 1953-4

Estimate Standard CV
error (%)

Births (annual) 34.6 1.0 2.9

Deaths (annual) 16.6 1.1 6.6
Marriages (annual) 7.1 0.5 7.0
Prevalence of sickness (monthly) 64.8 4.4 6.8

Source: Ganguly and Som (1958).

Stratified Multistage Varying Probability Sampling 375

results of a later survey, see Example 10.3. The other point to note is that the
reported birth, death, and sickness rates were obvious under-estimates, as could
be seen from available external evidence. One method of obtaining adjusted birth
and death rates from such defective data is described briefly in section 25.6.5.

21.5 Special cases of crop surveys

21.5.1 Introduction
The estimating procedures in crop surveys are greatly simplified if the sam­
pling units at each stage in a multi-stage design are selected with probability
proportional to area (section 16.5). The extension to stratified multi-stage
design is straightforward and will be illustrated with a stratified two-stage
design.

21.5.2 Area surveys of crops

In a stratified design with L strata, in each stratum the fsu’s (villages)
are selected with probability proportional to their (geographical) areas and
in the selected fsu’s, the ssu’s (fields) are selected with probability pro­
portional to their areas. We assume that the same number hq of fsu’s is
selected in each stratum and the same number mo of ssu’s selected in the
selected fsu’s.
If ahij is the total area, yhij the area under the crop, and phij = yhij /&hij
the proportion of the area under the crop in the Aijth sample field (A =
1,2,..., L; i — 1,2,..., no; j = 1,2,..., mo), then an unbiased estimator
of proportion of area under the crop in the Ath stratum is (from equation
(16.31))
no m0
Ph = EE Phij/no m0 (21.23)
i=l j=l
and an unbiased estimator of the total area under the crop in the Ath
stratum is (from equation (16.29))
Pho-^hPh (21.24)
(where Ah is the total area of the Ath stratum) and in the whole universe
L
¡/ = E^° <21-25)
Unbiased variance estimators of Ph and y^0 are given respectively by
equations of the type (16.32) and (16.33), and an unbiased variance esti­
mator of y is given by equation (21.7).
376 Chapter 21

21.5.3 Yield surveys of crops

If Xhij is the yield of a crop and r^ij = Xhij/yhij is the average yield per
unit area in the hijth sample field, then an unbiased estimator of the total
yield in the /ith stratum is (from equation (16.34))

x* h0 = Ahfh (21.26)

where
n0 mo
rh = rhij/nomo (21.27)
¿=1 j=1

is an unbiased estimator of the average yield per unit area in the stratum.
An unbiased estimator of the total yield in the whole universe is
L
x = ^xho (21.28)

Unbiased variance estimators of x* h0 and fh are given respectively by

estimating equations of the type (16.33) and (16.32), and an unbiased vari­
ance estimator of x is given by an estimating equation of the type (21.7).
See notes to section 16.5.

Further reading
Foreman, section 8.6; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols I and II, chapters 7-10; Kish
(1965), chapter 7; Sukhatme et al. (1984), sections 9.7, 9.9-9.10.

Exercises

1. The sampling design for a socio-economic survey was stratified two-stage.

In a stratum, two villages were selected with ppswr, and households within
a selected village were selected with equal probability and with replace­
ment. Table 21.18 gives the data collected on household size and monthly
consumption of cereals in the sample households. Estimate the total and
per capita monthly expenditures on cereals and the average household
size in the region covered by the strata, along with their standard errors
(Chakravarti et al., Exercise 3.10, adapted).
2. For the data of Example 21.1, estimate for the three states combined, the
average number of adults per household and its standard error.
Stratified Multi-stage Varying Probability Sampling 377

Table 21.18: Summary data on household size and per household consump­
tion of cereals in sample villages

Stratum Sample Selection Number of Average per household

village probability household
Number of Monthly expenditures
persons on cereals (Ind.Rs.)

h t ’I'M Mhl n. Xhx

1 1 0.0537 996 3.23 37.18

2 0.0423 761 5.21 81.05
2 1 0.0634 1165 6.43 63.00
2 0.0990 3108 4.26 108.04
3 1 0.0157 802 7.13 29.46
2 0.0482 2324 5.68 59.54
4 1 0.0646 3085 6.28 42.74
2 0.1285 7981 4.39 81.34
5 1 0.2092 8592 7.55 34.86
2 0.0965 5921 3.68 60.37
6 1 0.0785 1119 4.10 70.48
2 0.0167 1742 5.54 60.37
7 1 0.0268 1356 7.76 47.45
2 0.0712 4098 5.09 43.76
8 1 0.1159 8976 6.07 45.12
2 0.0297 1387 7.02 83.89

Source: Chakravarti et al., Exercise 3.10 (adapted).

CHAPTER 22

Size of Sample and Allocation to

Different Strata and Stages

22.1 Introduction

The procedure for the allocation of the total sample to the different strata
and stages in a stratified multi-stage design follow from those for a stratified
design (Chapter 12) and a multi-stage design (Chapter 17). The total
sample size is fixed in general by the availability of resources, especially the
available number of trained enumerators and the number of sample units
that can be surveyed by the enumerators during the survey period.

22.2 Optimum allocations

Extending the notations in sections 12.3 and 17.2, for a stratified two-
stage design (and sampling with replacement), and a fixed number moh of
sample ssu’s in each selected fsu, the variance of the unbiased estimator of
a universe total can be expressed as
V2h
(22.1)
h n h
where Vih is the variability between the fsu’s V2A that between the ssu’s
within the fsu’s and the sample number of fsu’s in the Tith stratum
(h = 1,2,..., L).
If the cost of travel between the fsu’s within a stratum is small and is
not taken into account, the following cost function may be adopted:
^nhcih + ^2nhrn°hC2h (22-2)
h h
where c^h is the cost per fsu and c^h the cost per ssu in the hth stratum.

379
380 Chapter 22

The optimum sample number of ssu’s in the /zth stratum is obtained on

minimizing the variance for a fixed cost or vice versa, and is given by

m0 = \Z(y2hC\h/VlhC-2h.) (22.3)

which is of the same form as expression (17.11) for an unstratified two-stage

design. The optimum sample number of fsu’s is similarly given by

nh Nh\/(Vih/cih) (22.4)

which again is of a similar structure as expression (12.6) for a stratified

single-stage design when the cost is fixed.
The above formulae indicate the following rules for allocating the sam­
ple:
1. Select more fsu’s in a stratum where (a) the number of fsu’s is large,
and (b) the ssu’s within fsu’s are heterogeneous.
2. Select more ssu’s in a stratum when (a) the cost of selecting fsu’s is
greater than that of selecting the ssu’s, (b) the average number of
ssu’s per fsu is large, and (c) the variability within ssu’s is larger than
that between fsu’s.

22.3 Gain due to stratification

It can be shown that a stratified two-stage srs will be more efficient than
an unstratified two-stage srs, with the same total sample size, when the
variation of the stratum means is large.
To combine the efficiencies of both stratification and multi-stage sam­
pling, the strata have to be made heterogeneous with respect to each other,
with the fsu’s within a stratum internally homogeneous (see sections 12.3.2
and 17.2.3). A small number of sample fsu’s in each stratum will then
provide an efficient sample. When strata are formed to contain an approxi­
mately equal sum of the sizes of the fsu’s in each, two additional advantages
ensue - first, an equal allocation of sample size per stratum, and second,
achievement of a self-weighting design.

Further reading
Cochran, section 10.10; Foreman, section 8.6; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and
II, chapters 7 and 9; Kish (1965), chapter 8; Singh and Chaudhary, section 9.5;
Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 8.12.
CHAPTER 23

Self-weighting Designs in
Stratified Multi-stage Sampling

23.1 Introduction

The problem of how to make a stratified multi-stage design self-weighting

will be considered in this chapter. The results follow from a combination
of those of Chapter 13 for stratified self-weighting designs and Chapter 18
for multi-stage self-weighting designs.

23.2 General case

Taking the stratified multi-stage design of section 19.3(5), an unbiased es­

timator of the universe total Y of a study variable is

(23.1)
sample 'i-1

(see also equation (19.18)) where yhi2...u is the value of the study variable
in the (12... u)th ultimate stage unit in the hth stratum, and the factor

(23.2)

(see also (19.19)) is the multiplier for the (12 ... u)th ultimate stage sample
unit in the hth stratum, and fht = n12,..(t_i)7rhi2...t, there being n^12...(t_i)
sample units each selected with probability 717,12...t out of the total
Nhi2...(t-i) units at the /th stage.

381
382 Chapter 23

The design will be self-weighting with respect to y when the multiplier

Whi2...u defined above is a pre-determined constant, Wq, for all the ultimate­
stage sample units. It will be so when
u-i 1
Au « H 7“ (23.3)
t=l Jht

In particular, a stratified multi-stage srs will be self-weighting with pro­

portional allocation for the first-stage units, and for each of the subse­
quent stages, a constant sampling fraction for selecting the next-stage units.
That is, the first-stage sampling fraction nhi/Nhi should be a constant, the
second-stage sampling fraction 0^12/^/112 a constant, and so on.
If, further, a fixed number of ultimate-stage units, n0, is to be selected
in each of the selected penultimate-stage units, then the same procedure
as for an unstratified multi-stage sample (section 18.2) will apply in each
stratum.
See the notes to section 18.2.

23.3 Stratified two-stage design with pps and srs

The procedure for an unstratified two-stage design with pps selection at the
first stage and srs (or systematic selection) at the second stage, given in
section 18.3, can be extended readily to a stratified design. The multiplier
for the ijth sample ssu in the hth stratum is
1 Mhi
WMj — f f (23.4)
JhXJh2

and the design will be self-weighting with a constant multiplier w0, when
mhi = Mhi/(w0nh7vhi) (23.5)
In a household inquiry, if the number of households to be sampled in
each village is to remain a constant mo, then with a self-weighting design,
m0 = Mhi/(nhTrhiw0)
or

TThi = Mhi/(wonhmo) = Mhi/Mh (23.7)

where m^ = ^Nh Mhi is the total number of households in the hth stra­
tum, i.e. in any stratum the villages are to be selected with probability
proportional to the total number of households; also

nh - A/h/(womo) (23.8)
Self-weighting Designs in Stratified Multi-stage Sampling 383

i. the number of sample villages is to be allocated to the different strata

e.
in proportion to the total number of households. It will also be seen that

wq = M/{nmo)
— total number of households/number of sample households
— 1/sampling fraction (23.9)

where n — nh is the total number of sample villages and M = Mh

is the total number of households in the universe.
As the total number of households existing at the time of actual enumer­
ation will not in general be known unless the inquiry is conducted simul­
taneously with a census, the following operational steps may be prescribed
in order to restrict the variation of the number of sample households in a
sample village:

1. Make a first estimate (M ) of the present total number of households

in the universe, and fix the overall sampling fraction, which is the
ratio of the required number of households to be sampled (nmo) to
the first estimate of the total number of households in the universe
(M ). The reciprocal of this will be the constant overall multiplier
w0.

2. Divide the whole universe into L strata by using some suitable criteria.

3. Allocate the number of sample villages to the different strata in pro­

portion to the number of households in them as per the latest census.

4. Select the sample villages in any stratum with probability propor­

tional to the number of census households.

5. Compute the estimated increase in the number of households in the

universe from the latest census, I — M /M'\ and compute m'Q —
mo/1, the expected number of sample households per village, where
M' is the total number of households in the universe as per the census.

6. Give to the enumerators the values mg and M'hi (the number of house­
holds in the villages in the census) with instruction to select at ran­
dom (or systematically) m/,, = households out of the
Mhi households listed in the ¿th village in the hth stratum.

See the notes to section 18.3.

384 Chapter 23

23.4 Opinion and marketing research

Extending the procedures of section 18.4, it can be seen that with the selec­
tion of one individual from a household, the sampling design can be made
self-weighting if the households are selected with probability proportional
to the respective sizes.
Expanding the example given in section 18.4, if households are selected
with probability proportional to size (number of adults in this case), the
multiplier for the adult in the O'th sample household in the hth stratum
becomes

Qhi/fah‘Khimki') (23.10)

If this is to be a constant, then

mhi = Qhi/iwonoTThi) (23.11)

In practice, the factors l/(tt'onh7T/it) will be given to the enumerators,

who will select the required number mhi of households which is the product
of this factor and Qhi the total number of adults listed in the ¿th block in
the hth stratum.
If the blocks are selected with equal probability, then the factor
l/(won/i7rh,) = Nh/(wonh) will be a constant in the hth stratum. If, in
addition, a constant sampling fraction for the first-stage units is taken in
all the strata, then the factor Nh/(worth) becomes a constant for all strata.
In this case, the number of households to be selected in any block will bear
a constant ratio to the current number of adults of the block.

23.5 Self-weighting versus optimum design

With simple random sampling, and assuming that Mhi = Mho, and
mhi = mho, it can be shown that the design will be self-weighting when
nh^ho/^h^ho = /o is a constant in all strata. On the other hand, the
optimum allocation gives

foh = nhmho/NhMho a x/(V2A/c2h)

While the cost per ssu (c2h) may be approximately equal in fsu’s of dif­
ferent sizes (i.e. with different total number of ssu’s), the variation among
the ssu’s (as measured by V2/1) may be greater in the larger fsu’s. A self­
weighting design will not thus be necessarily optimum. But as the theoret­
ically optimum design is not generally attainable while the optimum values
are generally broad, a self-weighting design will often be as efficient as the
optimum.
Self-weighting Designs in Stratified Multi-stage Sampling 385

As the above formulation assumes the same field cost function for both
the optimum and the self-weighting designs, while the latter would entail
considerably less cost for tabulation, there is an added justification in trying
to achieve a self-weighting design.

Further reading
Cochran, section 10.10; Foreman, section 8.6; Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. I,
sections 7.12 and 9.11; Murthy (1967), section 12.3; Singh and Chaudhary, section
9.9; Som, 1958-59, 1959; Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 9.8.
PART V

MISCELLANEOUS
TOPICS
CHAPTER 24

Miscellaneous Sampling Topics

24.1 Introduction

In this chapter will be considered miscellaneous topics such as multi-phase

sampling; sampling on successive occasions and panel sampling; estima­
tion of mobile populations; inverse sampling; interpenetrating networks of
sub-samples; simplified methods of variance computations; bootstrap and
jackknife methods of variance estimation; method of collapsed strata; con­
trolled selection; the use of Bayes’s theorem in sampling; the use of focus
groups to collect data; the use of randomized response technique of esti­
mation; and surveys on disability, nutritional status of children, women’s
status, and HIV/AIDS infection.

24.2 Multi-phase sampling

24.2.1 Reasons for multi-phase sampling

It is sometimes convenient and economical to collect certain items of in­
formation from all units of a sample, and other items of information from
a sub-sample of the units which constitute the original sample. This plan
is termed two-phase sampling or double sampling: when extended to three
or more phases, it is termed multi-phase sampling. Multi-phase sampling
can be used with stratified multi-stage designs, but its use will be illus­
trated for double sampling with srs (with replacement) at both phases in
an unstratified design.
Multi-phase sampling can be used for various reasons:

1. When the number of units needed to give the required precision on

different items is widely different, either owing to the fact that the
variabilities of the variables are different or because the precisions
required are different. If no use is made of the relations between the

389
390 Chapter 24

different variables, such multi-phase sampling is equivalent to taking

samples of different sizes for the different items. Thus in a household
budget inquiry, information on irregular purchases, such as of clothing
and furniture, could be collected, because of their larger variability,
from a large sample, and information on regular purchases, such as
of foodstuffs, from a sub-sample.

2. When it is comparatively difficult or costly to collect information on

some items, this can be done at the second-phase sample, while the
first-phase sample can be canvassed for simpler items only. In a crop
survey, it is usual to select a large sample of fields (or farms or plots),
generally in a stratified multi-stage design; the acreage of the crop is
determined from the whole sample of fields (or farms or plots) and
yield rates are determined from a sub-sample.

3. First-phase information may also be used as ancillary information, in

order to improve the efficiency of second-phase information by the ra­
tio and regression methods, where ancillary information on the whole
universe is not available. If the first-phase information is collected
prior to the second-phase information, it may be used as a basis for
the sampling plan, e.g. for stratification of the first-phase sample
units (for the selection of the second-phase units) or for pps selection
of the second-phase units or for both.

Notes

1. For selecting the second-phase sample, the first-phase sample serves as the
universe, but since the first-phase information is based on a sample, it is
itself subject to sampling errors, and this must be taken into account in
the estimating procedure.
2. Multi-phase sampling is structurally different from multi-stage sampling:
in the former the same sampling units are used throughout, but in the latter
a hierarchy of sampling units is used. The two may of course be combined.
3. An example of double sampling is found in the survey of level of living
among rural Africans in Cameroon, 1961-5. For the demographic sample
survey, which was conducted first, the design was stratified single-stage, a
systematic sample of villages (fsu’s) being taken in each stratum. For the
socio-economic inquiry, a sub-sample of the original sample fsu’s was taken
probability proportional to the existing number of households, and in each
such selected unit a fixed number of households (second-stage units) were
selected with equal probability and without replacement. For obtaining
estimates of totals and means, the ratio method of estimation was used.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 391

24.2.2 Double Sampling

We shall consider simple random sampling with replacement at both the
phases, a sub-sample of n' (< n) being taken of the original sample of n
units from a universe of N units. In the second phase, if no account is taken
of the information collected at the first phase, then an unbiased estimator
of the universe mean
N
y = Y,y-/n

is the sample mean

nl
v’ = Y,y'i/nl (24.1)

with sampling variance (from equation (2.17))

4 = <fyn' (24.2)

an unbiased estimator of which is (from equation (2.20))

n1
(24.3)

However, account may profitably be taken of the first-phase information

by using the regression or the ratio method of estimation. If the regression
method is used, then analogous to the estimating equation (3.24), which
applies in single-phase sampling, we have the regression estimator of the
universe mean

y'Reg =yi+KX~ X") (24.4)

where x and x' are the sample means of the ancillary variable, obtained
respectively from the first phase of n units and the second phase of n'
units, and (3' is an estimator of (3, the regression coefficient of y and x,
based on the second phase sample.
The variance of this regression estimator is approximately

(24.5)
n Tl'

where p is the universe correlation coefficient between the study and the
ancillary variables.
Clearly, the variance of the regression estimator will be less than that of
the unbiased estimator based on an srs of n! units (namely, cr^/n'), unless
392 Chapter 24

p = 0. When p = 0, the two become equal, and there is no advantage in

double sampling.
Optimum sizes. Considering the cost aspect, it is necessary to de­
termine the optimum sizes of the original sample (n) and that of the sub­
sample (nz) which will provide estimators with the minimum error at a
given cost or vice versa.
Taking the simple cost function

C = nci -|- n'c-2 (24.6)

where ci and are the respective cost per unit of the original sample and
the sub-sample. Then for a fixed cost C, the optimum values of n and n1
are respectively

n=C (24.7)

and

= (C - ncx)/c2 = (24.8)

The minimum variance in this case is

(^M(i-p2W + ^}2)/c (24.9)

where p > 0.
In the comparison of single-phase and double sampling, it may be noted
that if a single-phase sample has to provide the same information as a
double sample, the cost per unit in the former would also be c2 , so that
with the given total cost C, the size of such a single-phase sample is

n — — — n — + n.' (24.10)
C2 c2

and the value of p at which the variance of the optimum double sample
becomes equal to that of an equivalent single-phase sample is

(24ii>

p must be considerably large for the survey design to benefit from a double
sample. For example, if c2lc\ — 10, i.e. the unit cost of collecting data
on y is ten times that for observing x, then the two variances are equal
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 393

where p = 0.58; when p =■ 0.8, the variance in double sampling is about

three-fourths, and when p = 0.9, the variance is about one-half, that in an
equivalent single sample.
Estimating equations. In the regression estimator in double sampling
in srs (equation (24.4)), /?' is estimated by (cf. equation (3.23))

3' = SPy'^/SS^
and a variance estimator of is

(24.13)

where sy>, sxi, and p' = (3'sxi/syi are computed from the sub-sample.

Example 24.1

A simple random sample of 75,308 (= n) farms out of a total 1,200,000 (= N)

farms gave the estimated average area per farm as 31.25 acres (= z). A sub­
sample of 2,055 (= nz) farms gave the following data (y, denoting the number of
cattle and x't the area of the ith farm):
n' n1 n'

= 25,751; y^ = 597, 737; z^ = 62, 989;

n'

= 2,937,851; and y-i-= 1,146,391.

Estimate the average number of cattle per farm and its standard error using
the second-phase sample data (United Nations, Manual, Example 30; also see
Exercise 3 in Chapter 3 of this book).
Here ÿ' = 25,751/2,055 = 12.5309; x' = 62,989/2,055 = 30.6516 acres;
s'y = 11.551; s'x = 22.143; and 4' = 0.354551.
The regression estimate of the average number of cattle per farm in double
sampling is (from equation (24.4)) , ~yRcg = 12.7431.
As p = f3'sxi/syi = 0.679666, the variance estimator oiy'Reg is (from equation
(24.13)) 0.03573, so that the estimated standard error of y'Reg is 0.1891, with
estimated CV of 1.48 percent.
If no account is taken of the information in the original sample, then the
unbiased estimate of the average number of cattle per farm is y' = 12.5309, with
an estimated standard error of 0.2548 and CV of 2.03 percent.

Note: In double sampling, the ratio method of estimation may also be used, i.e.

y'n = zy'/z/ (24.14)

394 Chapter 24

but this estimator does not have any general superiority over the regression esti­
mator, except that it is simpler to compute; it may however be better than the
unbiased estimator.
See also the notes to sections 3.2 and 3.3.

Further reading

Chaudhuri and Stenger, Chapter 6; Cochran, sections 12.1-12.8; Foreman, sec­

tions 5.4 and 9.2; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and II, Chapter 11; Hedayat and
Sinha, section 6.9; Kish (1965), sections 12.1 and 12.2; Murthy (1967), sections
9.12 and 11.5; Singh and Chaudhary, Chapter 10; Sukhatme et al. (1984), section
6.6; Yates, section 3.12.

24.3 Sampling on successive occasions and panel sampling

24.3.1 Introduction

Sampling inquiries are often carried out at successive intervals of time on a

continued basis covering the same universe, such as in the Current Popula­
tion Survey of the U.S. and in the National Sample Survey of India. Various
methods are employed for this purpose, e.g. by the selection of a new sam­
ple on each occasion, by the partial replacement of the sample, and by
sub-sampling the initial sample. When the same sample of respondents in
a mail, personal or telephone interview is selected to provide information on
more than one occasion, the sampling plan is termed “panel sampling”.
In such surveys, interest centers on measuring one or more of the following:

1. the change in a universe parameter, such as the mean value of a study

variable

2. the average of the mean values for all the occasions combined

3. the mean value of the most recent occasion

The methods of estimation for the above will be illustrated for sampling
on two occasions with srs. Owing to the generally high positive correlation
between the values on two occasions, it is better to retain the same sample
to estimate the change in the mean values, and to draw a new sample to
estimate the average for both the occasions combined. For estimating the
mean for the second occasion, the same initial sample or a new sample of
the same size would give equally precise estimators, but a more efficient
scheme would be to replace a part of the sample on the second occasion
and to use the double sampling method with the regression estimator.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 395

24.3.2 Estimating the change in the mean value

If yr and y2 are the sample means (which are unbiased estimators of the
respective universe means Y i and V2 in srs) on two occasions (the sub­
scripts referring to the occasions), both being based on samples of size n,
the change in the universe mean values (Y 2 — Y1) is estimated unbiasedly
by the change in the sample means, namely,

y2~y\ (24.15)

If the samples are independent, then the sampling variance of the estimator
(y2 — y^ in equation (24.15) is

(<rf + <^)/n (24.16)

If, however, the same sample is used on both the occasions, the sampling
variance of the estimator in equation (24.15) is

(erf + cr2 - 2p(TX<r2)/n (24.17)

As p, the correlation coefficient between the values on the same units on

successive occasions, is likely to be positive and very high, the variance in
expression (24.17) will be less than the variance in expression (24.16), and
it is therefore better to retain the same sample to estimate more efficiently
the change in the mean values.

24.3.3 Estimating the mean for both the occasions combined

The estimator of the overall mean is l/2(t/i + 1/2)- Its sampling variance is

(<Ti + cr2 + 2p<Ti<T2)/4n (24.18)

When p is positive - cis it likely to be - it is better to draw a new sample

in order to estimate the overall mean more efficiently.

24.3.4 Estimating the mean for the second occasion

With the reasonable assumption that af = a2 = <r2, the means obtained
from the initial sample and from an independent second sample (of the
same size n) will have the same sampling variance cr2/n, i.e. will be equally
efficient.
Let us, however, consider that the sample is replaced in part, with m
out of the initial n units matching (i.e. retained) and a fresh sample of
396 Chapter 24

n — m = u unmatching units (i.e. replaced) taken on the second occasion.

Unbiased estimators of the universe mean Y 2 for the second occasion are

from the unmatched u units: y2u, with variance var(j/2u) = tr2/n

from the matched m units: y2m, with variance var(i/2rn) = a2/m
(24.19)

However, for the matched part, a more efficient estimator than the unbi­
ased estimator y2m is obtained by using the double sampling method with
the regression estimator, i.e. from equation (24.4),

y?Reg =y?m+ Ptyi-yim) (24.20)

where yr is the sample mean for all the n units and ylm that for the m
matched units on the first occasion. From equation (24.5), the sampling
variance of y2Reg is approximately
^2(1-P2)
var(?/ ap +,
(-2jReff\) = — (24.21)
m
A still better estimator of Y2 is obtained on weighting the two indepen­
dent estimators y2u and y2Reg inversely as their variances, i.e.
l/2uvar(l/2fieg) + ?/2Hegvar(y2u)
(24.22)
Var(^2u) + Var(ÿ2fiC3)

The variance of this combined estimator is approximately

a2(n — u p2)
(24.23)
n2 — u2p2
The optimum matching fraction (not taking the cost and other factors into
consideration) is
m _ v/(l - p2)
(24.24)
n l + v/(l_p2)

and the minimum variance in this case is

vMi. = [1 + v/oTT)] (24.25)

The optimum percentage to match never exceeds 50 percent and de­

creases steadily as |p| increases. Considering more than one item in a
survey, a good matching fraction will be one-third or one-fourth. Unless p
is very high, the gain from using the above procedure is modest.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 397

Notes

1. In sampling on more than two occasions, the optimum matching fraction

tends to 1/2, irrespective of the value of p.
2. Sampling the same units on successive occasions reduces the field cost. But
in surveys of human populations, the co-operation of the respondents may
diminish after a time and the process of repetitive surveys itself may con­
dition response and behavior; it is better, therefore, to rotate the sample
by partial replacement of the units according to a specific pattern. In the
Current Population Survey in the U.S., and the Labour Force surveys in Is­
rael, an individual household remains in the sample during four consecutive
months, and after an eight-month interval is brought back for another four
months. In the Micro-Census of the Federal Republic of Germany, where
the sample design is stratified single-stage (see Exercise 5, Chapter 10),
one-third of the sample enumeration districts are replaced every year. Par­
tial replacement of sampling units is also made in the labor force surveys
in Canada and Egypt.
3. A relevant question in sampling on successive occasions is the choice of the
sampling unit. Problems, often intractable, arise from the addition and
depletion of units, such as buildings, dwelling units, households, and fam­
ilies. In a household or demographic inquiry, for example, over a period
of time households change their composition (due to births, deaths, and
migration), re-form or dissolve; taking a specific geographical area, some
households move out of it and some new households move in. Similar prob­
lems arise in agricultural inquiries where the farmers are the ultimate-stage
sampling units. To overcome these problems, it is preferable to use areal
units as the ultimate-stage sampling units and enumerate completely the
elementary (or recording) units in the sample areal units: areal sampling
units have the other advantage of reducing response errors mentioned in
section 25.7. At the same time, to avoid the bias arising from repeated visits
of the same recording units (note 2 above), a compromise would be either
to have a partial replacement of the areal units as in the Micro-Census of
the Federal Republic of Germany, or to retain the same penultimate stage
areal units (such as villages and urban-blocks) with a partial rotation of
the elementary units within them.
Further reading

Binder and Hudiroglou; Cochran, sections 12.9-12.12; Chaudhuri and Stenger,

section 6.3; Foreman, section 9.3; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols. I and II, Chapter
11; Kish (1965), sections 12.4-12.7; Murthy (1967), sections 9.12 and 11.5; Singh
and Chaudhary, Chapter 10; Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 6.7; Yates, sections
6.21, 6.22 and 7.19.
Additional references for panel sampling

Panel surveys by Kasprzyk et al.-, Kish (1965), section 12.5; Moser and Kalton,
section 6.5; and Sudman, sections 9.11-9.17.
398 Chapter 24

24.4 Estimation of mobile populations

The problem of estimation of the number and characteristics of mobile

populations, such as animals, fish and insects, requires the adoption of
special sampling techniques. One is the capture-recapture method.

24.4.1 Capture-recapture method

Let NA birds be captured, marked (banded), and released. If afterwards
n birds are recaptured, of which rih are found to be marked, from simple
consideration of probability an estimator of the total number of birds in
the universe is

F = Na n/nh (24.26)

This estimator is known as the “Lincoln Index” after F.C. Lincoln

(1930) who had used it for estimating the total number of waterfowl on the
basis of banding returns in the U.S. in 1920-6. It is a maximum likelihood
estimator and consistent but biased.
The estimator (24.26) can also be derived from the ratio estimator of
the total of a study variable from a simple random sample (without re­
placement) of n out of N units (Hajek and Dupac). Denoting by y and z
the sample totals of the study and the ratio variables respectively and Z
the total of the ratio variables for the N units, the ratio estimator of the
total Y is

yR = Zy/z (24.27)

If Yi = 1 for all i and zt = 1 for the marked units and 2, = 0 for the
other units, then Y = N; y = n; Z = N^; z = n^, and from formula (24.27)
we obtain as an estimator of the total number of units in the universe

* = Zn/z = Nhn/nh
N

A variance estimator of N
* is

Z \Z / n—1
(24.29)

The assumption in this method is that the “capture and recapture”

method represents a simple random sample without replacement.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 399

24.4.2 Enumeration of nomads

For estimating mobile human population groups, such as nomads, expe­
riences in some African and West Asian countries show the hierarchical
approach through the tribal chiefs and administration to have considerable
promise; use of water holes as sampling units presents certain difficulties
and requires progressive modification of the sample design, while aerial pho­
tography is much less successful, besides being very costly. The use of the
capture-recapture method for this purpose has yet to be explored.

Further reading
Bailey; Boswell et al.] Hâjek and Dupac, section VIII.8; Hammersley; Leslie; Pol­
lock et al.] Ramsey et al.] Sen (1971, 1972, 1973 and 1991); Thompson, Chapter
18; United Nations (1993b).

Exercise

1. In an area of 4500 m2, 156 running beetles were captured, marked by

punching their wing sheaths by special forceps, and then released; after
24 hours, 191 unmarked and 32 marked beetles were found in a number
of earth traps. Estimate the total number of beetles in the area (data of
Skuhravy, quoted by Hajek and Dupac).

24.5 Inverse sampling

In inverse sampling, sampling is continued until certain specified conditions,

dependent on the results of the sampling, have been fulfilled. We shall
consider inverse sampling for proportions and for continuous data.

24.5.1 Inverse sampling for proportions

When the universe proportion P (= N'/N) of the number of units pos­
sessing an attribute (A') is very small, i.e. when the attribute is rare, an
estimate of P obtained from even a very large (simple random) sample by
the method of section 2.13, may not be reasonably precise. And a bad guess
of P, required to estimate the sample size to provide an estimate with a
given precision, may result in considerable under- or over-sampling.
With inverse sampling for an attribute in a simple random sample with­
out replacement, the sample size n is not fixed in advance, but sampling
is continued until a predetermined number n' possessing the attribute are
returned. An unbiased estimator of P is

(24.30)
400 Chapter 24

where n is the total sample size with the n' required units.
An unbiased variance estimator of p is

2 _ PÜ ~p) A _ n
(24.31)
p n-2 V nJ
When N is large, the variance estimator of P can be taken as

2 _ P(i ~P)
(24.32)
p n-2
Further, with a small p, the sample size n will be fairly large, so that
the variance estimator s? in equation (24.32) could be approximated by
p(l — n)/(n — 1), which is the form of the unbiased variance estimator of
p = n1 /n in srs with replacement (equation (2.74)).
The estimation equations in inverse sampling are attributed to J.B.S.
Haldane.

24.5.2 Inverse sampling of continuous data

Suppose that samples are taken with equal or varying probabilities (and
with replacement), until a predetermined number (r + 1) of distinct units
are included, and this takes (n + 1) samples; the last unit, which is the
(r + l)th distinct unit, is discarded. The sample, now of size n with r
distinct units, may then be analyzed as if it were a sample deliberately
chosen by the method of section 2.9 for srs or of section 5.3 for pps, both
with replacement.
The (combined) unbiased estimator of the universe total Y is, as before,
N
yô = ^2 £

where
*
Pi N yi in srs (24.34)
Pi IJi/TTi in pps (24.35)

where N is the total number of units, pi the value of the study variable of
¿th selected unit (? = 1,2, . . . , n), and 7rx- the probability of selection of the
¿th unit (i = 1,2,... ,N for the universe) in pps sampling.
An unbiased variance estimator of Pq is, as before,
n
SVo = 52^«’ _ Po)2/”(^ - 1) (24.36)
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 401

But s^., as defined in equation (24.36), is not an unbiased estimator of

the sample variance
N
2 Ew — y)2/nN in srswr
a Vo (24.37)

2
a Vo 7Ti in ppSWr (24.38)

(see also equations (2.17) and (5.4)). The sampling variance of t/g in inverse
sampling is approximately

(r “ aXr) = C1 ~ I(24 39)

where a//. is given by equation (24.37) for srswr and by equation (24.38)
for ppswr, and f = n/N is the sampling fraction.
The sampling variance in inverse sampling is thus less than that of <Xy..

Further reading
Cochran, section 4.5; Hedayat and Sinha, section 12.1; Levy and Lemeshow,
sections 14.5 and 14.6; Sampford, sections 7.10 and 12.5; Sukhatme et al. (1984),
section 2.13.

24.6 Estimation of rare events

Rare events, such as the incidence of a disease that affects, say, less than
10 per cent of a population, require a rather large sample to provide re­
liable estimates. Three options are available in such cases the use of the
“capture-recapture” techniques; inverse sampling of proportions; and net­
work sampling.
The first two options have been outlined in the preceding two sections.
We describe network sampling briefly with reference to a relatively rare dis­
ease. If a patient (an “element”) with such a disease is treated at more than
one health center (one “enumeration unit”), then “the counting rule that
allows an element to be linked to more than one enumeration is called Multi­
plicity counting rule” and “sampling designs that use multiplicity counting
are called network sampling” (Levy and Lemeshaw, 1991, section 14.5). For
a fuller introduction to network sampling, see Levy and Lemeshaw, op.cit.

Further reading
Kalton and Anderson (1986); Levy and Lemeshow, sections 14.5 and 14.6; Sud-
man, Chapter 9; Sudman, Sirken, and Cowan; U.N., 1993b.
402 Chapter 24

24.7 Interpenetrating network of sub-samples

When two or more sub-samples are taken from the same universe by the
same sampling plan so that each sub-sample covers the universe and pro­
vides estimators of the universe parameters on application of the same
estimating procedures, the sub-samples are known as interpenetrating net­
works of samples. The sub-samples may or may not be drawn independently
and there may be different levels of interpenetration corresponding to dif­
ferent stages in a multi-stage sample scheme. The sub-samples may also be
distinguished by differences in the survey procedures or of processing fea­
tures. These are sometimes known as replicated samples. The technique
was developed by P.C. Mahalanobis in 1936; a variant of this is sometimes
called the Tukey plan (Deming, 1960, pp. 186-7, footnote).
This technique enables one to:
(a) examine the factors causing variation, e.g. enumerators, field sched­
ules, different methods of data collection and processing;
(b) compute the sampling error from the first-stage units if these comprise
one level of interpenetration (both by the standard method as also by
a non-parametric test);
(c) provide control in data collection and processing;
(d) supply advanced estimates on the basis of one or more sub-samples
and provide estimates based on one or more sub-samples when the
total sample cannot be covered due to some emergency;
(e) provide the basis of analytical studies by the method of fractile graph­
ical analysis.
The technique may be incorporated as an integral part of the standard
sample designs and has been used in a number of sample surveys in In­
dia, including the Indian National Sample Survey, Peru, Zimbabwe, the
Philippines, and the U.S.A.
The first three uses of the technique are illustrated in section 26.6.5. In
this section we shall briefly deal with the other two uses of the technique.

24.7.1 Advanced estimates from sub-samples

Provisional, advanced estimates can be obtained as required on earlier pro­
cessing of one or more of the sub-samples, as was done in crop surveys in
Bengal (India) and in the 1961 Census of Agriculture in Peru. In emer­
gencies also, one or more sub-samples can be jettisoned and the other(s)
used.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 403

24.7.2 Fractile graphical analysis

A simple graphical representation can supply a visual (or geometric) means
of assessing and controlling errors and also a measure of the margin of error
(or of uncertainty), especially in the case of an interpenetrating network of
independent sub-samples. The observed sample units in each sub-sample
are ranked in ascending order of any suitable variable (or even in order of
time of observation) and the whole sub-sample is divided into a suitable
number of fractile groups of equal size (i.e. consisting of equal estimated
number of universe units). For each sub-sample the average value, or me­
dian, or some other estimate of any variable for each fractile group, is plot­
ted on paper and the successive plotted points are connected by straight
lines; these polygonal lines are called the fractile graphs of the sub-samples.
A fractile graph for the whole sample can be drawn in the same way, retain­
ing the same number of fractile groups, as in the case of the sub-samples.
The area between the fractile graphs for the sub-samples provides a visual
and geometric estimate of the error associated with the fractile graph of the
whole sample. This method can be used not only to assess the significance
of observed deviation from a statistical hypothesis relating to the results of
the survey for any particular part or the whole range of observed data, but
also for comparisons between results based on two or more surveys carried
out in different regions or at different periods of time in the same region
using the fractile graphical error for each survey. This method has been
extensively used in the Indian National Sample Survey (see Mahalanobis,
1960 and 1966).

Further reading
Cochran, sections 13.15 and 13.16; Deming (1960, Chapter 11; and 1963); Kish
(1965), section 4.4; Koop (1960 and 1988); Lahiri; Mahalanobis (1946a, 1958, and
1961); Murthy (1967), sections 2.12 and 13.10g; Rao, C.R. (1993); Som (1965);
Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 11.10; U.N. (1964a, section V18, and 1972, Part
I, section 11); Yates, sections 3.17, 5.4 5.6, 7.24 7.26; Zarkovich (1963, section
10.8).

24.8 Simplified methods of variance computation

As has been described before, the standard method of estimating the sam­
pling variance of the estimator of a universe total is to base it on the
estimators of the total obtained from each of the sample first-stage units
selected with replacement. If a fixed number of sample fsu’s is selected in
each stratum, the computation of variance is simplified, the more so if two
sample fsu’s are selected in each stratum (section 9.5 and note 2 of section
404 Chapter 24

19.3). It has also been noted earlier that the computation of estimates
and their variances become very simple if the design is made self-weighting,
either at the field or at the tabulating stage. The use of interpenetrating
networks of samples in providing variance estimators will be discussed in
section 25.6.5.

24.8.1 Method of random groups

As noted in section 2.14, if the sample units in an srs without replacement
are divided into a number of groups with an equal number of sub-sample
units in each, estimates of sampling variances could be computed from the
group means.
A variation of this method, followed in the Agricultural Survey in the
U.S. is to assign, in each of the eight regions covered, a random group num­
ber, 1 to 10, to a schedule before it is punched, and in tabulating to sort
the cards first according to the tabulation requirements and then by the
random group number, obtaining successive cumulative estimates relating
to the random groups. Estimates of variance were obtained by “decumu­
lating” the data from the auxiliary tapes and performing the appropriate
computations.

24.8.2 Selection of a random pair of units from each stratum

Another simplified procedure would be to select a random pair of sample
units from each of a large number of strata with approximately equal sizes
and to estimate the variance from the random pairs.

24.8.3 Use of "error graphs"

A sample survey usually contains many items of information, and the pro­
cess of computation of variance estimators for each of the items and their
cross-classifications becomes laborious and expensive. If a relation could be
found for a survey between the estimator of Y and its standard error that
holds substantially for a large number of items, then a curve (the “error
graph”), fitted on a suitable scale, may be used for estimating the standard
errors of less important item totals. Such error graphs have been used by
Yates (section 7.20), and in surveys conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the
Census (Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. II, Section 12.B), and the U.S. National
Center for Health Statistics.

Note: Whenever a sub-sample is drawn from the original sample for computing
the variance estimate of an estimate obtained from the large, original sample,
caution must be exercised in using the appropriate estimating equations. Suppose,
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 405

for example, that from an srs with replacement of n out of N units, the unbiased
estimator yÔ of Y is computed by the method of section 2.9, i.e., yÔ = N Ui/n.
If a sub-sample of n units is selected at random from the n units, then an unbiased
estimator of a2, computed from the sub-sample of n units, will be
nz
s'2 = 52(i,'-ÿ')7(n'- 1) (24.40)

where y' — y'Jn', and y'x (i = 1,2,. .. , n') are the values of the study variable
in the sub-sample. To estimate the sampling variance of y* , defined above, this
value of s'2 is substituted for s2 in estimating equation (2.44), which then becomes

s2y* — №s2/n = N2 s'2/n = N2 SSy',/\n(n' — 1)] (24.41)

Further reading
Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. I, section 10.16, Vol. II, section 10.4; Kish (1965),
sections 8.6C and 14.3.

24.9 Other methods of estimating sampling variance

In the last two decades, a number of methods have emerged that are ap­
plicable to non-linear functions of the sample data (and, of course, as a
special case, to linear functions) and do not involve the assumption of nor­
mality. We discuss here two such methods - the bootstrap method and the
jackknife method: both require the re-sampling of the sample data.

24.9.1 Bootstrap
The bootstrap method was developed by Efron (1979) to provide estimates
of sampling variances for complex statistics.
Suppose, in a universe comprising N units, interest centers on a universe
parameter R which is a non-linear function of the universe variate(s) and
that a sample of size n has been drawn according to a specified sample
design. In the bootstrap method, the sample of size n is considered as the
universe, from which repeated samples are drawn (with replacement), each
of size n. Suppose, for example, that the sample size is n = 10. The sample
is re-sampled (with replacement), using a computer, to provide constructs
of n = 10 artificial data sets each. Then M (100 or more) such constructs
are obtained from the computer, in each of which the original ten numbers
would be selected by chance and some might not be selected at all. If there
are M re-samples, for each of which a copy r is made of universe parameter
406 Chapter 24

R, which gives M bootstrap estimators rj (j = 1,2,...,M). Then, the

(bootstrap) estimator of sampling variance is given by
M
4 -1) (24.42)

where
M
r= r^/M (24.43)

Computer software programs, such as Resampling Stats for IBM or

MAC personal computers, are now available for the large-scale re-sampling
required by this technique (Goldstein); Willeman has shown how to imple­
ment the bootstrap in a simple spreadsheet of the Lotus 1-2-3 type.
Efron calls his method “the bootstrap” as, in a sense, the sample data
pull themselves up by their own bootstraps by generating new data sets
through which their reliability can be determined.
Mammon has set down conditions under which bootstrap can be ex­
pected to work satisfactorily. Efron has applied it in a study on the decay
of tau particles and a study of the effects of the cholesterol-reducing drug
cholestyramine and found it to give more plausible results.
It has been argued that the bootstrap method “has been examined for
its applicability to sample surveys, but the results have been somewhat
mixed so far. ... At present, the use of the bootstrap as a general solution
to computing variances is not very promising” (Brick), a major problem
being computational, particularly in surveys with many estimates.

Further reading
New York Times of 9 November 1988 and the London Economist of 19 November
1988 gave popular accounts of the bootstrap method. For a detailed introduction
to the method, see J.N.K. Rao’s article on variance estimation (1988). For a
full treatment of the topic, see the book by Efron and Tibshirani (1993), and
Mammon (1992), and articles by Efron (1979, 1982, and 1989), Efron and Gong
(1983), and J.N.K. Rao and Wu (1988) and the papers for the 1990 Conference
on Exploring the Limits of Bootstrap, edited by LePage and Billard.

24.9.2 Jackknife
A method proposed by Quenouille (1956) for reducing the bias in ratio
estimators is used, in a modified form suggested by Tukey (1958), in vari­
ance estimation of non-linear functions; Durbin (1959) and Schucany, Gray
and Owen (1971), among others, have further developed the method. It
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 407

is a handy, utility method analogous to the jackknife which is a strong

clasp-knife for the pocket, hence the naming of the method.
The jackknife method is based upon the concept that if rn is an estima­
tor biased to order 1/n, and rn_i is the mean of the n estimators derived
by omitting one unit of the sample, then

nrn - (n - l)rn_! (24.44)

is biased to order 1/n2. Suppose, interest centers on estimating a universe

ratio R = Y/X. and from a sample of size n, unbiased estimators y and
x respectively of Y and X, obtained from a sample of size n. The sample
estimator r = y/x is known to be biased generally (see section 3.2, Notes).
Then, n samples, each of size n — 1, are obtained in the following manner.
First, randomly select one sample unit, delete it and obtain a new estimate
of R, based on the sample of size n — 1; call this new estimator rj. Then
replace the deleted unit and randomly select another unit, delete it and
obtain the second estimator T2- Continue the process (noting that some
of the units may be deleted, and replaced, more than once) until n new
estimators are obtained, each based on the sample of size n — 1; call these
new estimators rj. Pseudovalues

rj = r + (n — l)(r — rj) (24.45)

are then computed, and the revised, jackknifed estimator of R is given by

r == rj/n (24.46)

The estimated MSE of the jackknife estimator (24.46) is given by

MSEf = ~ F)2/n(n — 1) (24.47)

Further reading
For a more detailed introduction to the jackknife method, see J.N.K. Rao’s (1988)
article on variance estimation. For full details, see the books by Efron (1982),
and Gray and Schucany (1972), and articles by R.G. Miller (1974), and Schucany,
Gray, and Owen (1991).

24.10 Method of collapsed strata

When the universe is stratified taking into account the characteristics of

more than one study variable, stratification may have to be carried to a
degree at which there is only one first-stage sample unit in each stratum.
Estimators of variances of totals, means, etc. cannot then be computed by
408 Chapter 24

the standard method. In such a situation, the strata may be combined into
a smaller number of groups such that each group contains at least two first-
stage sample units. Estimators of variances can then be computed from
the sample fsu’s in the newly formed groups. This is known as the method
of collapsed strata.
The variance estimator, computed from such collapsed strata, over­
estimates the sampling variance. A very satisfactory approximation may,
however, be obtained when the number of strata is large and the strata are
combined into groups such that for each group the strata are about equal in
size (total Y). On the other hand, the variance estimator will be a serious
under-estimate if the groups are constructed by seeing the sample results
and making them differ as little as possible.

Further reading

Cochran, sections 5A.12 and 8.12; Hansen et al. (1953), Vols I and II, Chapter 10;
Kish, sections 4.3, 7.4D, and 8.6B; Singh and Chaudhary, section 3.12; Sukhatme
et al. (1984), section 4.15.

24.11 Controlled selection

Controlled selection is any process of selection in which, while maintaining

the assigned probability for each unit, the probabilities of selection for some
or all preferred combinations of n out of N units are larger than in stratified
srs (and correspondingly the probabilities of selection for at least some non­
preferred combinations are smaller than in stratified srs).
To illustrate from an actual survey situation described by Hess, Riedel,
and Fitzpatrick (1961), suppose a universe of nine hospitals is divided into
two strata, one containing four large hospitals A, B, C and D, and the other
five small hospitals a, b, c, d and e. If it is decided to select one hospital
each from each stratum with equal probability, the probability of selection
of a hospital from stratum I is 0.25 and that from stratum II is 0.20 and
all the 4 x 5 = 20 combinations of one hospital each from a stratum has
the same probability, 0.05. If, however, hospitals A, B, a, and b are state
owned and the others are privately owned, then of the twenty combinations
ten will comprise one state and one private hospital. Although each of the
twenty combinations will provide an unbiased estimator of a universe total,
it is preferable to have in the sample one state hospital and one private
hospital; but the chance of selection of such preferred samples is 10/20, i.e.
0.50.
One method of ensuring higher probabilities of selecting such preferred
samples is due to Goodman and Kish (1950), which in the above example
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 409

would increase the probability of selection of a preferred sample from 0.50

to 0.90 in stratified srs.
Controlled sampling is mainly practicable and useful when the sample is
made up of a few large first-stage units. It then enables additional control
to be introduced beyond what is possible by stratification alone, this being
limited by the fact that the number of strata cannot exceed the number of
units in the sample. However, in the words of one of the originators of the
method, “it has several drawbacks ... It may be safer for non-specialists to
avoid any controlled selection in favor of simpler and more standard prob­
ability methods” (Kish (1965), section 12.8). The drawbacks relate mainly
to the difficulties of application that require skill and care, arbitrariness
involved in selection, and the estimation of the sampling variance.

Further reading

Cochran, section 5A.5; Chaudhuri and Stenger, section 1.1.4; Foreman, section
11.8; Kish (1965), section 12.8; Singh and Chaudhary, section 3.15; Sukhatme et
al., (1984), section 4.16.

24.12 Use of Bayes' theorem in sampling

In section 2.8 and elsewhere, probabilistic statements concerning an un­

known universe parameter have been made from considerations of confi­
dence intervals. Another approach involves the use of Bayes’ theorem,
which plays an important role in the treatment of the foundations of prob­
ability on which the theory of survey sampling is based. The application of
Bayes’ theorem in sampling is somewhat controversial.
Consider k events Hi,..., Hk, which are mutually exclusive and exhaus­
tive (i.e. they exclude each other two-by-two and one necessarily occurs).
An event A is observed and is known to have occurred in conjunction with
or as a consequence of the event Hj. The joint probability of occurrence of
the events A and Hj is

P(A | Hj) = P(A | Hi)P(Hi) = P{Hj | A)P(A) (24.48)

where P(A | Hj) is the conditional probability of A given Hj and P(Hj | A)

that of Hj given A. As the event can occur only in conjunction with some
Hi (z — 1,2,..., k), and the AH{ are mutually exclusive, the probability of
occurrence of A is
k k
P(A) = | Ht)P(Hi) (24.49)
410 Chapter 24

from equation (24.48). Also, from equation (24.48), the probability of oc­
currence of Hj, given A, is
P(AHj) _ P(A | Hj'fPjH))
P(ty | A) =
P(A) p(A | H,)P(H,)
That is, the probability of Hj, given A, is proportional to the probability
of A, given Hj, multiplied by the probability of Hj . This is Bayes’ theorem
or rule for the probability of causes. P(Hj | A) is called the posterior
probability, P(A | Hj) the likelihood, and P(Hj) the prior probability;
H\, H2,. .. ,Hk are called the hypotheses or causes of A.
The theorem has many statistical applications but requires a knowledge
of the prior probabilities. Suppose a human population is divided into k
strata on the criteria of race, and let p, (z = 1,2,..., k) be the probability
that an individual chosen at random belongs to stratum Hi. Let the event
A denote the possession of blood group A, and let p' denote the conditional
probability P(A | Hj) that a person belonging to race Hj also has blood
group A. The probability that an individual chosen at random has blood
group A is, from equation (24.49), £2* PiPi- Given that a person has blood
group A, what is the probability of his belonging to race H?
From Bayes’ Rule (equation 24.50), the answer is

Plf, 141 _ _ PiP'i

1 ;l ' P(A) P(Hi)P(A 1 ffj) £‘p.p;
A Bayesian approach has also been applied to determine the optimal
design in stratified sampling (Ericson, 1969); and further work has been
done on the optimal cluster size etc.
Unlike the usual Bayesian posterior inference problem, where the pri­
mary focus is on the posterior distribution of the hypothesis Hi, in sample
surveys with the finite universe model it is the predictive distribution of the
unobserved components of Hi (or a future sample of Nh — nh units) which
is primarily of interest.

Further reading
Chaudhuri and Stenger, section 3.2.1; Ericson (1969) and other relevant articles in
Johnson and Smith (1969); Ericson (1988); Feller, sections V.l and V.2; Lindley
(1965 and 1972); Schmitt.

24.13 The use of focus groups

One technique of qualitative research is focus group interviews that also

goes by the name of group interviews or group discussions. This technique
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 411

has found wide applications in consumer market research and, more re­
cently, in political and opinion research. Focussed group interviews should
be “conceived of as an ecumenical research tool for use in every domain of
social life; it is not at all confined to market research as many evidently
assume is the case. For sound research results, it must be supplemented by
more systematic and typically quantitative research” (personal communi­
cation from Robert K. Merton).
Group interviews have been used for over 35 years in the fields of psy­
chotherapy, public opinion surveys and market research (Slavson, 1979, and
Higginbotham and Cox, 1979, cited by Scherr, 1980). Following the pio­
neering work of Merton and his colleagues in the 1940s at the Columbia
Office of Radio Research during World War II and later at the Columbia
Bureau of Applied Social Research (into which the Office of Radio Research
had evolved), providing a theoretical underpinning of the basic concept of
focus (Merton and Kendall, 1946, Merton, Fiske, and Kendall, 1956), focus
groups have gained a huge currency, particularly in market research, all over
the world. In the United States alone, 100,000 focus groups were conducted
in consumer market research in 1992, with more than 1 million participants
(Impulse Research Corp.). Focus groups are now increasingly being used in
fields such as social security administration, population censuses and family
planning surveys.
In focus group interviews, a number of respondents or “participants”
are brought together for half an hour to two hours under the direction of a
“group leader” or “moderator” ; the size of the group varies according to the
topic of discussion and the type of participants, generally ranging from five
to twelve. In contrast to individual interviews, the prime concern in focus
group research is group interaction, and thus the suggested criterion for the
success of a focus group: in a productive focus group, the participants talk
to each other more than they talk to the moderator.
It has been argued that unlike individual interviews that are based on
structured questionnaires, a focus group discussion allows greater in-depth
probing of a topic and is, therefore, expected to provide more representative
data from the public point of view. The contrary argument is that groups
can inhibit individual articulation: private interviews are used, e.g. in KAP
studies, to encourage responses that are normally inhibited by the presence
of others (Stycos). As Merton has indicated, group and private focussed
interviews are complementary.
Focus group sessions are commonly tape recorded, sometimes video­
taped, and are usually conducted in facilities equipped with one-way glass
to view participants without inhibiting them.
Focus groups have been found to be an appropriate tool for developing
insights and hypotheses and for exploring the range of pertinent attitudes,
412 Chapter 24

opinions, concerns, experiences, and suggestions of participants and can

thus be a helpful preliminary step in developing the conceptual framework,
data specification, and question wording of a survey or evaluating draft
questionnaires for a quantitative survey that will use structured question­
naires in a probability sample or in administration of or after a survey to
collect information on non-response. Thus, a legitimate role of focus groups
is as a supplement to, and not as a replacement for, (quantitative) survey
sampling.
The U.S. Social Security Administration used focus groups in 1978 in
Washington D.C., Maryland, and California to evaluate proposed revisions
to an administrative form for collecting race and ethnic data (Scherr; U.S.
Office of Management and Budget, 1983). The U.S. Census Bureau used fo­
cus groups in the 1986 Test Census in Mississippi and Los Angeles on moti­
vational messages and themes that would encourage the hard-to-enumerate
populations, such as people with low incomes. It was found that the test
censuses were not well covered by the media; the groups were not aware that
the census was mandatory, let alone that a penalty existed; the groups sug­
gested greater publicity of the census with endorsements by church leaders
and national celebrities (such as Bill Cosby, Jerry Lewis, Danny Thomas,
and Richard Pryor) and not by local officials (Bush; Freeman). These fo­
cus groups have led to the improvement of the Bureau’s census and survey
methodology.
At the request of the Office of Child Support Enforcement at the U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services to assist in revising the Child
Support Supplement to the Current Population Survey, the Census Bureau
conducted in 1992 focus groups with previous respondents to the Supple­
ment.
In epidemiological and KAP-type studies, focus groups have been used
recently by the U.S. National Cancer Institute to pre-test public educa­
tion programs and materials for cancer prevention, by the U.S. National
Heart, Lung and Blood Institute to design a public information program
on high blood pressure, by the UNICEF to gain a deeper understanding of
people’s behavior related to breast feeding in developing countries, by the
Population Council in a similar undertaking in four developing countries,
by a large public sector research program in Mexico to provide information
to develop a commercial contraceptive marketing program, in Indonesia to
gather information for survey research on family planning (Schearer; Folch-
Lyon and Frost; Folch-Lyon et al.', and Suyono el al.), and in Bangladesh
to understand the determinants of contraceptive use (Nag and Duza).
Focus groups are also used to identify the desired criteria of potential
jurors, e.g. in the trial of O.J. Simpson.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 413

Further reading
For the use of focus groups and other methods of qualitative and motivation re­
search in general, consult the books by Merton, Fiske and Kendall (1990) and
by Morgan (1988) and articles by Merton and Kendall (1946), Merton (1987)
and Forsyth and Lessler (1991). For the use of focus groups in consumer mar­
ket research, consult articles by Calder (1977), Cox et al. (1976), Fern (1982),
Gage (1978), Grik, Parker, and Hetegikamana (1987), McDaniel (1979), Reynolds
and Johnson (1978), Sampson (1986), and Szybillo and Berger (1978); for its use
in population, family planning, and community health studies, consult the ref­
erences cited in the text, the special issue on focus group research of Studies in
Family Planning (12(12), 1981), and articles by Grik et al. (1987), Knodel (1990),
and Sikes (1993); for the U.S. Census Bureau’s use of focus groups, see Market
Dynamics’s report, Alder (1985), Bush (1985), Freeman (1985) and U.S. Census
Bureau (1993a).

24.14 Randomized response technique

In socio-economic and epidemiological studies, accurate information is dif­

ficult to obtain on topics that are sensitive in nature, due either to personal
or socially imbedded reasons - such as the practice of family planning or
regular visits to a church, mosque or temple - or due to legal reasons, such
as not reporting, or incorrectly reporting, income or consumption of al­
cohol on illegal substance abuse (such as cocaine), or use of abortion (in
countries where abortion is illegal under certain conditions). It is quite
possible that the practice of regularly visiting a house of worship would be
over-reported and that of illegal substance abuse under-reported. Warner
(1965) suggested a technique to obtain such information by giving the re­
spondents a choice of answering a question on the topic under study or a
related or unrelated question. The technique, as modified by Horvitz, Shah
and Simmons (1967), is briefly described below.
Suppose, in a family planning survey, an objective is to estimate the
number (and the proportion) of women aged 15-49 years practicing family
planning. Two questions are formulated:
1. Are you now using any family planning method?
2. Does the last digit of your age (in years) lie between 0 and 4?
The first question is related directly to the topic under study; the second
question is an unrelated one, the universe proportion of the response to the
latter - let us call it 6 - being known, or could be estimated fairly easily,
in the example above by 0.5: (6 should be so chosen as to lie between
0.5 and < 1). The respondent is given a choice (determined by herself)
414 Chapter 24

to answer question 1 or 2, depending on the outcome of a drawing, the

universe probability of which - let us call it P2 - is known beforehand; for
example, the respondent might be given a coin and asked to toss it, away
from the interviewer, the actual outcome of which - head or tail - is known
only to the respondent (but the universe probability, 0.5, is known to the
survey designer), and the respondent is asked to answer (“Yes”/“No”) to
question 1 if the result of the toss is a head to answer (“Yes”/“No”) to
question 2 otherwise.
It is thus assumed that the composition of the randomization process
(e.g. the coin tossed resulting in a head) and the universe probability of
answering “Yes” to the unrelated question are known, the two probabilities
being designated respectively by 0 and P2. Suppose, in an srswr of n
individuals, n\ answer “Yes” (but it is not known how many have answered
“Yes” to question 1 and how many answered “Yes” to question 2). The
problem is to estimate the “true” proportion of individuals answering “Yes”
to the relevant question (question 1). The RRT estimate of this proportion
is

♦ _ Pi-P2(l-^)
P1 0

where pi = Hi/n.
An unbiased estimator of the variance of p* is given by

var(₽‘) = (24'52)

Suppose in a sample of 600 women, each women is asked first to toss

a coin and to answer the first question if the toss results in a head and
to answer question 2 otherwise. Suppose further that 180 women answer
“Yes”, but it is not known how many have answered “Yes” to question 1
and how many have answered “Yes” to question 2. Here = 180, p\ —
180/600 — 0.3. And, since 0 = 0.5, the RRT estimate of the proportion
of women using any family planning method is, from equation (24.51):
[0.3 — 0.5(1 — 0.5)]/0.5 = 0.1, or 10 per cent.
This can also be seen from simple mathematical considerations. Half of
the 600 women, i.e. 300, are expected answer the second question, and again
half of them, i.e. 150, are expected to answer “Yes” to the second question.
Thus, the remaining (180 — 150 =) 30 women answering “Yes” must have
responded to the first question, the total number of women responding to
the first question being 300. Hence the estimated proportion of women
answering “Yes” to the first question, i.e. practicing family planning is
30/300 = 0.1, or 10 per cent.
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 415

The estimated standard error of this estimate is, from equation (24.52)
0.0374, and the percentage error is 37.44 per cent.
The techniques sometimes returns inadmissible estimates - proportions
that are negative or greater than 1.
The putative advantage of RRT is that it is impossible to tell which
question the individual answered and therefore it is impossible to tell their
standing on the controversial item, so that the respondent can feel anony­
mous. But respondents are often suspicious that they have been tricked
and lose their confidentiality, so they still might not answer honestly.
Randomized response technique has been used in studies, among others,
of induced abortion in urban North Carolina (Abernathy, Greenberg, and
Horvitz, 1970), and outcomes of pregnancies in Taiwan (I-Cheng, Chow,
and Rider, 1972). RRT is also being used in AIDS research (Discover, July
1987, p. 12, cited by Scheaffer et al.).
In addition to the limitations of the randomized response technique
mentioned earlier, another reason why the technique is not being used more
is that cross-tabulations of the sensitive topic responses by independent
variables are not possible. The above considerations call for a most judicious
application of this technique.

Further reading

For the admissibility criteria of RRT estimates, see Bourke and Dalenius (1974).
For a full treatment of the subject, see the references cited in the text and the
book by Chaudhuri and Mukherjee; consult also the papers by Horvitz, Greenberg
and Abernathy (1975). Droitcour et al. (1991) have discussed a number of
randomized response techniques. They also reviewed an experiment using the
item count method, due to J. Miller (1984), where each respondent is provided
with a short list of items describing behaviors and asked to count and report the
total number (not the names) of behaviors engaged in. In the simplest case, a
probability sub-sample (Sub-sample A) of respondents are shown a four-list item
that includes the socially disapproved behavior item; the remaining respondents
(Sub-sample B) are shown a list of three items (the original four-item list minus
the disapproved item). By comparing responses from the two sub-samples, an
estimate is obtained.

24.15 Line sampling and lattice sampling

In line sampling, lines are drawn across a geographical area and all uni­
verse units falling on the line, or intersected by it, are included in the
sample. If the lines are straight parallel equally spaced across the area, the
sampling becomes one variant of systematic sampling (Chapter 4).
416 Chapter 24

If instead of all intercepts on the line, a series of evenly spaced points

are chosen on each line, the sampling is equivalent to choosing the points
on a lattice and may also be regarded as two-stage sampling.
In lattice sampling, sub-strata are selected for the sampling of indi­
vidual units according to some pattern analogous to the allocation of treat­
ments on a lattice experimental design. Lattice sampling can be considered
a variant of “deep stratification.”
An example of line-intercept sampling would be in estimating the
total quantity of berries of a certain plant species in a study area, when a
random sample of n lines, each of length I, is selected and drawn on a map
of the study area; in the field survey, whenever a line is seen to intersect a
bush to the species, the berries of that bush are collected and their quantity
measured (Thompson, Chapter 19, who also provides estimating equations
in line sampling.)

Further reading

Thompson, Chapter 19; Yates, sections 3.15 and 3.18.

24.16 Surveys on disability

One of the concerns in today’s world is disability, whether congenital or

disease- or trauma-induced. But a major problem of the international com­
parability of data on disability still arises from the different definitions
adopted by national organizations that are different from the International
Classification of Impairments, Disabilities and Handicaps (WHO, 1980).
The decennial population census that is de rigueur in most countries
has been the traditional source of obtaining data on disability, as in the
1990 Population Census in the U.S. and the 1986 Census of Canada. How­
ever, the decennial census suffers from two major limitations: first, it is
conducted only every ten years, and, second, with the competing demands
that are put upon it, it cannot provide in-depth data on disability.
Special-purpose surveys are the other major source of disability data.
While utilizing the census frames, such disability surveys are conducted
either in connection with the population census, in the form of post-census
surveys as in Canada (in 1986) or Egypt (in 1960) or otherwise indepen­
dent from the population census as in Egypt (in 1978-1983), India, the
Netherlands, and the United States.
In the 1986 Census of Population in Canada, the survey strategy was to
ask 20 per cent of households to complete a long questionnaire that included
one question on disability ((a) “Are you limited in the kind or amount of
activity that you can do because of a long-term physical condition, mental
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 417

condition or health problems - at home; at school or at work; in other ac­

tivities, e.g., transportation to or from work, leisure activities?” ; (b) “Do
you have any long-term disabilities or handicaps?” ) and 23 other additional
questions on ethnic origin, labor force participation, income and education.
The question on disability was aimed at providing a sampling frame for the
conduct of a post-censal survey entitled the Health and Activity Limita­
tion Survey (Furrie, 1989). Such post-census disability surveys could be a
recommended strategy due to lowered cost (the 1986 survey in Canada ob­
tained five times the sample at twice the cost; see Statistics Canada, 1992)
and simplified sampling.
Another strategy that has recently gained currency is to piggy-back a
disability survey, by attaching special modules, on national surveys, as was
done in the Labor Force Survey of Canada in 1983-84, the Health Interview
Survey of Netherlands in 1986-88, and the Health Interview Survey of the
United States in 1993-94 (Statistics Canada, 1992). A variant of this would
be to combine a disability survey with a survey on aging, since disability is
often a function of age.
Screening questions could be on general disability, as in the 1986
Population Census of Canada (see above), or comprise a checklist of specific
disabilities, as in the U.S. Population Census of 1990, and New Zealand
Population of 1990 (Chamie, 1989): the choice would obviously depend on
other additional questions asked.
As with most large-scale sample surveys, the sample design should be
stratified multi-stage, with strata being formed taking into account the
prevalence of certain forms of disability (such as river blindness (onchocer­
ciasis) which is specific to southern Mexico, Guatemala, Venezuela, and
Central Africa) and also some population groups with higher than the na­
tional prevalence of disabilities.
In the 1986 Health and Activity Limitations Survey of Canada, two ma­
jor strata were formed - Indian reserves and other areas. To estimate “false
positives”, a sub-sample was taken from the sample of persons who had re­
sponded “Yes” to the Census screening question and to estimate “false
negatives”, another sub-sample was taken from those who responded “No”
(see section 25.3.2(i) for discussion of the terms “false positive” and “false
negative.”) For the institutional population, the institutions - orphanages
and children’s homes; special care homes and institutions for the elderly
and chronically ill; general hospitals; psychiatric hospitals; and treatment
centers and institutions for the physically handicapped - were grouped in
three strata according to size (number of permanent residents), and within
each stratum, a sample of residents was selected and personally interviewed,
or if the selected individual was unable to respond for himself or herself, an
interview was conducted with a staff member or next-of-kin (Furrie, 1989;
418 Chapter 24

for details, see Statistics Canada, 1986).

Further reading
For details of the Health and Activity Survey in Canada in 1983-84, see Statistics
Canada (1986) and for the 1991 survey, see Statistics Canada (1991 and 1994);
for details of the Netherlands Health Interview Survey in 1981-91, see Nether­
lands, Central Bureau of Statistics (1992); for the U.S. Health Interview Survey
in 1984-88, see Ries and Brown (1991); and for the 1983-85 Survey, see LaPlante
(1988). Also see Chamie (1989) for survey design strategies; for case studies
of the development of disability statistics in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and
Syria, see U.N. (1986) and for development of statistical concepts and methods
for household surveys, see U.N. (1988a).

24.17 Surveys on nutritional status of children

The U.N. World Summit for Children, held in September 1990, established,
in line with the Rights of the Child, a series of specific goals to be achieved
by the year 2000: the major goals being reducing infant and child mortality
by one-third or to 50 and 70 per 1000 live births respectively, whichever
is less; halving of the maternal mortality rate; halving the prevalence of
severe and moderate malnutrition among children; providing universal ac­
cess to safe drinking water and to sanitary means of excreta disposal; and
improving protection of children in especially difficult circumstances.
One of the instruments for achieving these goals is the monitoring of the
nutritional status of children, for child malnutrition is an accepted indicator
of social development that has been seen to be endemic not only in devel­
oping countries, but also in a number of developed countries, particularly
among the urban poor and the “inner cities” in the United States. The
three recommended nutritional status indicators bounding the early child­
hood period are: birth weight, weight-for-age, and height-for-age (WHO,
1962; FAO, 1984; Carlson, 1987).
The principal objective of a nutritional study of children in this context
is to assess the frequency and degree of underweight (indicator: weight-
for-age), stunting or chronic malnutrition (indicator: height-for-age), and
wasting or acute malnutrition (indicator: weight-for-height).
A sample survey is the only feasible data source for such information.
A linked nutritional status survey module that combines a survey on the
nutritional status of children with another compatible survey could be the
proper strategy for a field study (U.N., 1990d; Carlson and Jaworski, 1994).
In such a linked survey, the nutritional module is self-standing but with
links to the relevant identification and characteristics of the sample house­
holds, so that studies of interrelationships of the nutritional status of chil­
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 419

dren with, say, household income and environments could be undertaken

later on. This was the approach used in the Child Nutritional Status Survey
in Bangladesh in 1989-90 (Carlson and Jaworski, 1994; Bangladesh, 1991).
In the Gulf Child Health Survey conducted in seven member countries of
the Gulf Co-operation Council and in the Pan Arab Project for Child De­
velopment in 14 Arab countries, information on the nutrition of children
was collected for the sample households (see Appendix VI, Sections A6.3.7
and A6.3.8). As a general rule, the sample design should be stratified
multi-stage. Typically, the sample size in these surveys ranges from 5,000
to 10,000 sample households, yielding, on an average, respectively 3,400
and 6,800 children between 3 months and 5 years of age in most developing
countries (Carlson and Jaworski, 1994). The Pan Arab Child Development
Programme has revealed the importance of paying particular attention to
the urban poor (Jemiai and Khalifa, 1993), e.g. those in “the inner cities”
in the U.S.: it may thus be advisable to have a separate stratum for them
in order to estimate the nutritional status of their children, the vulnerable
group, distinct from the urban affluent.
In view of the seasonal character of the nutritional status of children
(Carlson and Jaworski, 1994), the sample should be spread over a year and
each month a fresh sample, one-twelfth the total size, should be enumerated
so as to eliminate the seasonal effect (Som, 1973, Chapter 2).
For software for nutritional surveillance, see Fichner el al. (1989)
and Sullivan et al. (1990). Other statistical software programs and packages
that could be considered are ANTHRO-Software for Calculating Pediatric
Anthropometry (Sullivan and Gorstein, 1990) and EPI-Info (Dean et al.,
1990; also see section 27.10.4 of this book). Of the available software pack­
ages for data processing, the Integrated Microcomputer Processing System
(IMPS), developed by the United States Bureau of the Census (see sec.
27.10.1), appears to be the most flexible and is recommended.

24.18 Surveys on the status of women

The collection and analysis of accurate and comprehensive statistics on the

situation of women has become a top priority in the United Nations system:
the United Nations has published a data base on the situation of women
called, WISTAT (U.N., 1992).
Women’s activities cover a wide range, arguably wider than that of
men. Studies of the social and economic roles of women in the family and
the household would require data, among others, on the composition of the
family/household, including headship rates, i.e. the number and proportion
of households headed by women, age and marital status of the household
head, female property inheritance, widow inheritance, the nature of labor
420 Chapter 24

migration, the impact of male migration, the participation of women both

in domestic activities and informal sector activities that had, until recently,
been “invisible” (U.N., 1984a, 1988b, 1990b, and 1993c).
The informal sector includes non-monetary production (in the sense
that the output is retained by the producers for their own use), monetary
production, and other activities that lead to production that constitutes
“an important contribution to the total consumption of the household”
(U.N., 1990b).
The population census has been the traditional source of collecting gen­
eral demographic and social data, from which some required indicators,
such as headship rate by sex and age, could be calculated. Recommenda­
tions have been made, among others by the U.S. Agency for International
Development and the United Nations for using the population census for
collecting data and preparing reports on women’s status in national devel­
opment (USAID, 1981; U.N., 1990a).
But most other data on the status of women would have to be collected
through household or labor force surveys (particularly their activities in the
informal sector) (U.N., 1988b; ILO, 1990), time-use surveys (for detailed
information on the amount and intensity of labor inputs), and division of
labor modules (U.N. 1988b and 1993c).
As men and women are fairly equal in number in the population and are
distributed generally equally among households, no new sampling technique
would be required in a study of women’s status. Consideration should,
however, be given to forming separate strata for “inner city” populations
with large proportions of woman-headed households and for rural and semi-
urban areas with a preponderance of non-formal economic activities and to
have these sectors adequately represented in the sample.
The survey strategy could be the piggy-backing of, or linking with, a
survey on women’s status and other data collections, such as a population
census, or a household or demographic (particularly, fertility) survey or a
labor force survey. The women’s survey would then constitute a sample
of the census or a sub-sample of the household or demographic or labor
force survey: this would have the further advantage of the potential of the
analysis of interrelationships between the status of women with household
or demographic or labor force characteristics.

24.19 Estimation of HIV/AIDS infection

During the last decade, the spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus

(HIV) infection/AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome) has become
a world-wide public health problem affecting vulnerable population groups
- intravenous drug users, homosexual males, prison population (males), fe-
Miscellaneous Sampling Topics 421

male partners of HIV-infected males, commercial sex workers and infants

born to HIV-infected women. Several governments and international orga­
nizations, particularly, the World Health Organization, are attaching great
importance to this problem.
Before any action programs to contain HIV infection could be taken, it
would be necessary to estimate its prevalence among different population
groups. The U.S. Centers for Diseases Control implemented a family of
HIV Seroprevalence Surveys in the United States in 1987-89 in sexually
transmitted disease clinics, in drug treatment centers, among women in
women’s health clinics, among patients of tuberculosis clinics, at U.S. sen­
tinel hospitals, among childbearing women, and among blood donors. The
survey design (with options for local variations) was blinded and unlinked,
where “there is no interaction or intervention with eligible people for the
purpose of the survey, and HIV serological test results cannot be linked
to identifiable persons. ... Only demographic and behavioral information
already collected for other purposes is used in the survey” (Pappaioanou
el al., 1990a). This approach obviates the need for informed consent, and
thus eliminates the self-selection bias in most voluntary HIV seropositive
surveys.
In the survey among childbearing women, for the first survey periods,
minimum sample sizes for estimating statewide seroprevalence with 50 per
cent relative error were calculated by using seroprevalence rates observed in
civilian female applicants for military service (Pappaioanou et al., 1990b).
The Center for International Research of the U.S. Bureau of the Census
has studied the recent HIV seroprevalence levels by country and the trends
and patterns of HIV/Infection in selected developing countries (U.S. Bureau
of the Census, 1993b and 1993c; also see Way and Stanecki, 1993) and has
published an HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database (U.S. Bureau of the Census,
1993d).
In designing a national survey to estimate the prevalence of HIV in­
fection and the characteristics of the infected, it should be useful (a) to
stratify the universe according to the generally known prevalence of HIV
infection, and (b) to take samples in proportion to the rough estimates of
the number of the infected. Thus it may be necessary to put cities such as
San Francisco and New York in the U.S., Bombay in India, and Bangkok
in Thailand, and prison populations (males) with sub-strata for specific ur­
ban localities. Lacking the informed consent of the general population to
be tested for HIV infection, data would par force have to be collected from
hospital and clinic records. However, informed consent would have to be
obtained for testing, on humans, potential vaccines against AIDS.
To test the hypothesis of association of HIV and BIV (Bovine Immun­
odeficiency Virus), it would be necessary to survey separately women who
422 Chapter 24

live in rural areas (with exposure to cattle) but commute daily to the cities
for commercial sex activities (Bhattacharya).

Further reading
In addition to the references cited in the text, see the articles in Public Health
Reports, Vol. 105, No. 2, March April 1990, “Special Section: The Sentinel HIV
Seroprevalence Surveys.”
CHAPTER 25

Errors and Biases in Data and

Estimates

25.1 Introduction

In the previous chapters, we had assumed implicitly that the basic data
collected either through a complete enumeration or a sample are free from
any error or bias and that the (unbiased) estimates obtained from a sample
are subject only to sampling errors. This is not so in actual survey con­
ditions. From the stage of collection to that of preparation of final tables,
the data are generally subject to different types of errors and biases. In
this chapter will be reviewed the various types of errors and biases in data
and in estimates derived from them and the methods of measurement and
control of these errors and biases.
The importance of giving proper attention to errors and biases in data
and estimates can best be illustrated by the telling words of W. Edwards
Deming (1950, page 25):
“For what profiteth a statistician to design a beautiful sample when
the questionnaire will not elicit the information desired, or if the
universe has not been satisfactorily defined, or the field-force is so
badly organized that the results will not be worth tabulating? And
again, what is accomplished if a well-designed questionnaire and well-
disciplined field-force are used with a biased sampling procedure?"

This observation applies equally to the design of censuses.

25.2 Coverage and content errors

It will be convenient at this stage to distinguish two types of errors - er­

rors of coverage and errors of content. If in a survey for a specified area,

423
424 Chapter 25

some households, persons, etc. are missed, i.e. not enumerated at all or
enumerated more than once, that is a coverage error: complete villages
in remote areas being missed in some African censuses are an extreme case
in point. If a particular unit is covered in the survey, but there is a mistake
in recording its relevant characteristics (the age of a person, for example,
who may not, for whatever reasons, know or report his exact age), that is
a content (or classification) error. There may be some balancing out of
these two types of errors.

25.3 Classification of errors in data and estimates

The different types of errors in data and estimates can be classified first
according to the source: (a) errors having their origin in sampling and (b)
errors which are common to both censuses and samples.

25.3.1 Errors having their origin in sampling

These are: (i) sampling errors and (ii) sampling biases. Errors other than
sampling errors are called non-sampling errors and biases.

(a) Sampling errors. A measure of the degree to which the sample es­
timate differs from the expected survey value (which is obtained on
repeated applications of the same survey procedure) is given by the
standard error, the square of which is called sampling variance.

(b) Sampling biases. In a sample survey, in addition to sampling errors,

sampling biases may arise from inadequate or faulty conduct of the
specified probability sample or from faulty methods of estimation of
the universe values. The former includes defects in frames (in both the
available frames and those prepared by the enumerators in a multi­
stage design), wrong selection procedures, and partial or incomplete
enumeration of the selected units.

Biases of the estimating procedure may either be deliberate, due to uses

of a biased estimation procedure itself, or may be due to the inadvertent
use of a wrong formula for estimation. An example of the unavoidable bias
in a particular estimate, even though the components may be unbiased, is
the ratio of the unbiased estimates of two totals (see sections 2.7, 3.2 etc.).
Three examples will be cited of bias due to methods of estimation not
based on the sampling plan. First, biased estimates will result if the sample
is treated for simplicity as simple random or self-weighting when it is neither
of these. In an inquiry when it is not feasible to construct a host of estimates
by applying proper multipliers, unweighted estimates of ratios, which may
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 425

be subject to much smaller biases than the estimates of the numerators and
denominators, may be obtained for the less important items. A comparison
should in any case be made of the estimates based on proper weights and
simplified weights for some important items in order to obtain an idea of the
magnitude and direction of the bias in simpler estimates. Results from a
number of demographic surveys in India have shown that such a procedure
could be used with proper caution (Som, 1973, section 1.3.2(ii)b 1).
Second, biased estimates will result when estimates of variances and
covariances are computed from results at higher levels of aggregation. Re­
sults (such as birth rate and proportion of childless women) are not gen­
erally published for the ultimate strata but only for the higher levels of
aggregation, such as states and provinces: the components of these results
(estimated numbers of births and total population for the birth rate and
estimated numbers of childless women and total women for the propor­
tion of childless women) are almost never published. Yet, in a study of
a demographic survey in Zaire in 1955-1957, the correlation coefficient be­
tween (the estimated) birth rate and (the estimated) proportion of childless
women was computed from the published results of birth rate and propor­
tion of childless women for the 28 districts in the country: this is a wrong
method and the desired estimates should be obtained with a design-based
procedure by building up estimates of variances, covariances etc. from the
ultimate strata in the sample.
As a last point, biases will arise when the sample is treated as if it
had come from a stratified design when the design is either unstratified or
stratified with respect to another variable (see section 10.7).

25.3.2 Errors common to both censuses and samples

Errors common to both censuses and samples will be classified under seven
broad headings: (i) errors due to inadequate preparation; (ii) errors of non­
response; (iii) response, ascertainment or observational errors; (iv) process­
ing errors; (v) errors in constructing substitute estimates; (vi) errors in
interpretation; and (vii) errors in publication. These categories are not
strictly mutually exclusive, and there may be some amount of overlap, es­
pecially for the first three.

(i) Errors due to inadequate preparation. These might be due to the

failure to state carefully the objectives of the inquiry or to decide on the
required statistical information; drawbacks of the questionnaire, including
lack of clarity of concepts, definitions and instructions; failure to define
the universe with enough precision or to provide precise instructions and
definitions; and careless and disorganized field procedure, including faulty
426 Chapter 25

methods of selection of enumerators or supervisors and faulty or insufficient

training.
One common source of such errors is the faulty demarcation of the
boundaries of the geographical units which leads to wrong coverage, mainly
under-coverage; available maps do not often contain the details required and
such maps cannot take into account new premises that are built between
the time the map was prepared and the inquiry is conducted.
In a demographic inquiry, if the question of current births is asked only
of the mothers who are alive on the survey date, those occurring to mothers
who had died by the survey date would be omitted; similarly, deaths to all
the members of a household, or to persons after whose death the household
dissolves or re-forms in more than one part, may not be obtained unless
specific procedures are laid down to collect such data.
In an inquiry designed to estimate the size and characteristics of a spe­
cific population group, selected after a preliminary screening (where the
mesh cannot perforce be fine) of the general population, bias may be intro­
duced at the stage of screening by the failure to take precautions against
the occurrences of (a) “false negatives”, i.e. persons actually belonging
to the specific population group but not classified as such, and (b) “false
positives”, i.e. persons not actually belonging to the population group but
classified as such. For example, inquiries on the prevalence of pulmonary
tuberculosis were generally conducted by first screening, by means of minia­
ture X-rays, the general population (excluding children under age five years)
in the selected areas (or households) and then bacteriologically examining
sputum and laryngeal swabs of only those showing evidence of any pathol­
ogy in the X-ray films. But a study made in the U.S. in 1947 showed that in
a single reading of X-rays, 54 per cent of cases showing a moderate degree
of tuberculosis and 0.8 per cent of cases with no evidence of tuberculosis
were diagnosed as positive (Yerushalmy and Neyman). Although in such a
procedure the number of “false positives” could be estimated, that of “false
negatives” (and, therefore, the true total number of persons with pulmonary
tuberculosis) could not be estimated, unless a sample of persons from those
not showing evidence of any pathology in the X-ray films were also covered
for the bacteriological examinations of sputum and laryngeal swabs. The
latter procedure is now reportedly being followed, and recommended, by
the World Health Organization. Estimates from both the groups should
be combined to provide estimates for the specific population group under
study.
For the 1986 Health and Activity Limitations Survey of Canada, screen­
ing questions were introduced in the national population census of Canada
in 1986 to define a sample of individuals likely to have a disability; the
survey included sub-samples from both those who answered “Yes” to the
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 427

census screening questions and those who answered “no”: the proportion of
persons with some disability was estimated at 13 per cent, of whom “false
negatives” - i.e. the census screening missed - constituted 40 per cent and
the ratio of “false positives” - i.e. those falsely identified by the census
screening as having some disability when they had none - to the num­
ber with actual disability was 1/16 (U.N., 1994; for details, see Statistics
Canada, 1992).

(ii) Errors of non-response or incomplete sample. Non-response could

be due to the non-coverage of areal units (coverage errors) because of in­
complete listing or inaccuracy, difficulties of the terrain, the absence from
home of respondents when the dwelling units are visited (“not at homes”),
the inability to answer some questions, and the refusals to answer a ques­
tion. Non-response increases both the sampling error (by decreasing the
effective sample size) and the non-sampling error.
An example of a response error is the deficiency in the reported number
of two-member households in a morbidity inquiry in Syracuse, New York, in
1930-31, which was attributed to the failure of the enumerators to revisit
missed households in which childless married women working away from
home are likely to predominate (Kiser, 1934; cited by Brookes and Dick,
section 47b.7 and Yates, 1981, section 2.4).
In other situations, where information is required on physical character­
istics of some items by adopting objective techniques of measurement, the
necessary information may be lacking due to the failure to reach the survey
units at the right time to collect the data. These difficulties arise mostly in
agricultural surveys designed to estimate crop production, because of fail­
ure of the enumerators to visit the sample fields selected for crop-cutting
experiments before harvesting.

(iii) Response or ascertainment or observational errors. These refer to

the differences between the individual survey values and the corresponding
true values (elaborated in section 25.4).
The magnitude and direction of response errors depend on the survey
conditions and procedures - the skill of the enumerator, the time given
for interview, the inclusion of fully detailed probes in the schedule, the
acceptance of proxy interviews, and the understanding and co-operation
of the respondents, the general climate of attitudes and opinions etc. The
response error may be unintentional or it may be deliberate on the part of
the respondents: a person may not know his exact age, or he may know his
exact age but make an assertion more pleasing to his personal vanity (“the
vanity effect,” vide Kendall and Buckland).
The fear of the “evil eye” is known in some cultures in reporting
428 Chapter 25

births, especially of males (Das Gupta, 1958), farm produce (Sukhatme

et al. (1984), section 11.19), etc.
In the 1951 Census of England and Wales, for an appreciable number of
women married more than once whose earlier marriages were not reported
and who were thus included among the “married once only”, the total
number of children in all the marriages was associated with the current
marriages; at marriage ages 35-39 years, where this error was concentrated,
the total fertility might have been overstated by as much as 10 per cent
(Benjamin, 1955).
The enumerator may also have conscious or unconscious biases. For
example, he may like to record numerical answers in round figures, or he
may over- or under-record some figures for particulars groups of units. In
crop surveys, eye estimates are always subject to bias, which would vary
from enumerator to enumerator, and the net effect can often be substantial.
In inquiries on crop yields, the use of too small a “cut” would give rise to
biases when the demarcation of the boundaries becomes of importance,
as the size of the unit is decreased, and also because the possibility of
influencing the results by small changes in location, e.g. so as to include
particularly good plants, is greater the smaller the unit areas (Mahalanobis,
1946b; Mahalanobis and Sengupta, 1951; Sukhatme, 1946a, 1946b, 1947a,
and 1947b; and Yates, section 2.5).
One major source of response error is that of recall. Many of the items
in an inquiry relate to events that occurred in the near or distant past,
and the problem is both to remember these events and to place them in
the correct time periods. Such a recall error is called recall lapse when it
can be expressed as a function of the recall period (i.e. the period that
elapsed between the occurrence of the event and the inquiry). Recall lapse
may relate to the reporting of births and deaths, reporting of the births of a
preferential sex, under-reporting of infant deaths, reporting of sickness, etc.,
when these can be seen to be a function of the recall period (Som, 1973).
Recall lapse has been observed in both developed and developing countries,
particularly related to nondurable consumer goods, spells of minor sickness,
etc. (Bailar and Biemer (1984)).

(iv) Processing errors. Such errors may be introduced at different stages

of data processing, from editing to final presentation in the form of summary
tables. However, these errors are generally easier to control on the basis
of checking and sample re-verification, including the insertion of dummy
entries (Mahalanobis, 1946a). The possibility of occurrence of simple com­
putation errors is not generally admitted explicitly, a refreshing exception
being the study of the registration data in Uttar Pradesh, one of the larger
states in India: “The published figures do not necessarily conform with the
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 429

actual registration in the villages. This vitiates all calculations regarding

corrected birth rates” (Government of India, 1955). For the population cen­
sus data of Yugoslavia in 1953, errors made during the individual phases
of manual processing were found to be quite considerable when compared
with the totals of corrected figures (Macura and Balaban, 1961).

(v) Errors in constructing substitute estimates. When the inquiry, ei­

ther a census or a sample, fails to provide accurate estimates, substitute
measures are often devised. These are sometimes based on assumptions
which cannot be validated or do not apply in a particular situation. Thus,
a method of estimating the current fertility level based on the assumption
that fertility has not changed in the recent past cannot be applied to provide
estimates aimed at measuring fertility changes.

(vi) Errors in interpretation. These relate to misleading interpretations

and conclusions that do not follow from the data. Take, for example, the
crude death rates for single and married males in Portugal in 1950 (10.5 and
12.6 per 1,000 single and married males respectively) and in Chile in 1952
(10.5 and 12.8 per 1,000 respectively). From these, it would be wrong to
conclude that in these countries a male could increase his chance of survival
by remaining single: for, in each age group, the death rate for the single is
higher than that for the married (United Nations, Demographic Yearbook,
1956, Table 21). The paradox stems from the different age distributions of
the single and the married.

(vii) Errors in publication. These are mainly mechanical in nature and

relate to proof reading etc.; they are not generally as serious as the other
types of errors.

This inventory and description of errors and biases should not lead one
to suppose that all inquiries are worthless because all have errors. The er­
rors are of varying types and degrees, and can occasionally be measured and
subtracted out; this could be the main aim in research on errors and biases
(Deming, 1950). On the other hand, a survey in which the magnitude and
direction of different types of errors are not evaluated, or at least indicated,
may give a false sense of accuracy in the collected data and constructed
estimates.

25.4 Simple statistical model

25.4.1 Individual value, true value, and expected survey value

The true value of ith individual item will be designated by Zi. The survey
may be a census with the total number of units N, in which case i runs
430 Chapter 25

from 1 to TV; or it may be a sample of n units with i running from 1 to n.

Thus, the study variable may refer to the number of births in the reference
period in a particular household, which may be zero (no birth), 1,2,...; or
it may refer to the age in years last birthday of a household member, which
may have any of the values 0,1,2,...; or it may refer to the size of the
household, which may be 1,2,...; and so on. The recorded survey value,
obtained either from a census or a sample, will be designated by t/t . The
error or bias in the individual zth unit is defined as

bi = yi - Zi

Thus, if in a particular household no birth is reported to have occurred

during the reference period (yi = 0), when in fact a birth had occurred
(zi = 1), the error in the survey value is 6, = j/,• — z, = 0 — 1 = — 1; and so
on.
When the survey value coincides, perhaps fortuitously, with the true
value, i.e. when yi — Zi, i.e. 6t = 0, we say that the survey value is
accurate; if y^ z,, i.e. 6t 7^ 0, the survey value is said to be inaccurate.
The value which is obtained on repeated applications of the same survey
procedures is called the expected survey value, and designated by E(y). Note
that the expected survey value would differ from survey to survey and from
a sample to a census. Under the term “same survey procedure” are included
the skill and training of the enumerators, the quality of the questionnaires
etc.
In most cases the true individual value can be defined, but it may not
be known, e.g. the age of a person. In some cases, however, the true value
is difficult to define, e.g. attitudes and opinions, but is nevertheless useful
conceptually.
Note also that the true values of individual and derived items are gen­
erally unknown. What are obtained in a survey (census or sample) are the
survey values.

25.4.2 Census

First we deal with a census or complete enumeration. As before, let the

individual true value of an item under study be designated by z, and the
recorded survey value by yi (i — 1,2,..., A). The errors in the individual
survey values are 6, — yi — zt , from which

yi = Zi 4- bi (25.1)
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 431

The relation between the survey value and the true value of the universe
total is given by summing both sides of equation (25.1),
N N N

or
Y=Z+B (25.2)
and that between the means by dividing both sides of equation (25.2) by
N
Y =Z+B (25.3)
where B is the error of the survey total (Y) and (B) that of the survey
mean (Y).
When Y > Z, i.e. B, the error in the survey total, has a positive sign,
Y gives an overestimate of Z\ and when Y < Z, i.e. B has a negative sign,
Y gives an underestimate of Z. And similarly for the means.
From equation (25.1) the variance of an individual survey value is given
by
+ °b + 2<tz6 (25.4)
where cr^, cr^, and cr^ are the variances (per unit) of ?/, z, and b respectively
and azb is the covariance of z and b, defined respectively by
N N
- YYIN; <r2
, = £(z, - Z)2/N-,
N N

~ and = LX2' - ^(b‘ - Bj/N (25.5)

The covariance azb can also be expressed as Pzb^z^b, where pzb is the
correlation coefficient between z and b, given by
N
pzb = *t
52( - Z)(bi - B)/N ffzab
Apart from the general case where individual errors are present (6, 0),
and do not cancel out (B / 0), so that the survey total, survey mean and
the variance of survey value are given respectively by equations (25.2),
(25.3), and (25.4), we may have the following special cases:
(i) Individual errors absent, data accurate. Here bi = 0, and B — 0, so
that
Y = Z; Y = Z; and = cr^ (Here cr^ = 0 = cr2b).
432 Chapter 25

(ii) Individual errors present, but total error absent. Here 6, 0, but
B = 0, so that

Y = Z; Y = Z\ but af 0; and a^ = a? + a% + 2azb

Thus in this case, the survey total or mean would be free from error,
but the variance will be affected; even if azb = 0, i.e. even if there is
no correlation between z and b, but a^ > a].

(iii) Constant individual error. Here bi — bo, a constant, so that Y =

Z 4- Nbo, Y = Z + bo, but a? = az (since a% = 0 = azbf In this case,
the survey total, mean etc. will be affected, but not their variances.

The above results show that even in a census, the results (total, mean
etc.) may be misleading unless some idea is obtained about the errors of
the data.

25.4.3 Sample
Here we assume that a simple random sample of n units is drawn with
replacement from the total of N units. The individual survey values are

Vi = Zi+ bi (25.6)

The relation between the totals is

n n n
= + <25J)

and that between the means (dividing both sides of equation (25.7) by n)
is

y— z+b (25.8)

where y is the survey mean, 7 the true mean and b the error of the survey
mean, for the n sample units.
When y > z, i.e. b has a positive sign, y will give an overestimate of 7;
and when y <7, i.e. b has a negative sign, y will give an underestimate of
7.
The expected value of the survey mean y is obtained on taking the
means of all the possible values of y from different samples all of size n
under the same survey procedure and is given by

E(y) = E(z) + E(6) = Z + B (25.9)

 Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 433

Figure 25.1: Distribution of true and survey individual values and of survey
mean (adapted from Zarkovich (1963), Figure 1).

(a) Bias heavy, sampling error large (b) Bias heavy, sampling error small

(c) Bias small, sampling error large (d) Bias small, sampling error small

Figure 25.2: Distribution of the sample estimate (?/) in relation to the true
value (Z).
434 Chapter 25

and the sampling variance of y is

4 = E[y - Ely',]2 = E(y - F)2 = (<z2 + a2 +1aib)/n (25.10)

In Figure 25.1, the distribution (I) of the true values z, around the true
mean Z has been shown by Curve I; the variance of the distribution is crj.
The distribution (II) of the survey values j/, around the survey mean Y is
shown by Curve II; the variance of the distribution is cr^. If a sample of n
units are taken from the distribution II, the estimates of the mean y will
have the distribution shown by Curve III around the expected survey mean
Y; a measure of this variation is given by cr^-, as defined by equation (25.10).
This does not, however, give any indication of the expected behavior of the
distribution of the sample estimate y around the true mean Z, which is
the basic aim in any survey. That is measured by the mean square error
defined below, which, in addition to the sampling error, takes account of
the expected value of the bias, measured by B = Y — Z.
Consider also the four special cases given in Figure 25.2(a)-(d). It is
clear that in the two cases (a) and (b), where the bias is heavy, the values
of both the estimate and its (estimated) variance would be misleading in
setting any confidence limits to the universe value: the ideal situation is, of
course, given by case (d) with both the bias and the sampling error small
(see also Deming, 1950, Fig. 1).
Mean square error. The variability of the survey mean around the true
value is measured by the mean square error, which is defined as the ex­
pectation of the square of the difference of the survey mean and the true
mean:

MSEV = £(y-Z)2 = £[(1/-y) + (y-£)]2

= £(y-y)2 + (y-z)2 + 2(y-z)f;(5-y)
= <^ + B2 (25.11)

as (y — Z) = B is a constant (for the same survey procedure) and E(y—Y) =

0.
Some special cases of the above equations are given in Table 25.1.

25.4.4 Response errors and biases

Response errors and biases have been considered jointly here, although a
distinction could be made between them. Those response errors which have
expectation zero may be called response errors (consider in the preceding
sub-section the case where bi 0 but b = 0); thus, without affecting the
estimates except in a statistical sense, these increase the variability or the
 Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 435

Table 25.1: Effects of individual and total errors on the expected value, the
sampling variance, and the mean square error of the survey mean

Individual Mean Expected Sampling variance of Mean square error of

error error value survey mean survey mean
survey mean
fr, fr =Ÿ MSE-

General case: Individual and total errors present

t0 # 0 Z +B + fffc + 2a,b) (b, + + 2a,b) + B

Estimate, sampling variance, and mean square error affected.

Special cases:

(i) Individual errors absent, data accurate

= 0 =0 Z a^/n a2/n

Estimate, sampling variance, mean square error unaffected. (Note the classical formula for
the sampling variance of the mean for smple random samples.)

(ii) Individual errors present, but mean error absent

#0 =0 Z £ (a2 + al + 2a,b) (a2 + °l + 2a,b) + B2

Estimate unaffected, sampling variance and mean square error affected.

(iii) Constant individual error

= fro ^0 Z 4- Bq a2/n £ a2 B2
(constant)

Estimate affected, sampling variance unaffected, mean square error affected.

Source: Som, 1973, section 1.4.3.

436 Chapter 25

sampling error of the estimates. Response biases are the other type of
response errors that do not cancel out, and affect the estimates themselves,
while the variability of the estimates may or may not be affected (consider
in the preceding subsection the cases where b — 0; the sampling errors
will not be affected if 6, is a constant.) Thus, in a census or a sample,
if the differential effects of the enumerators cancel out, but there is a net
bias common to all the enumerators, these may be stated to constitute a
response bias.

25.4.5 Reliability and accuracy

It is important to clarify the difference between reliability and accuracy
of data and estimates. The difference between the result obtained from a
sample and that obtained from a complete enumeration, conducted under
the same survey conditions (controlled or uncontrolled), or on the repeated
application of the sampling procedure, gives the reliability or precision
of the sample estimate and is measured by the sampling error; the
difference between the result from an inquiry, either a sample or census,
and the true value (which, in general, would be unknown) is known as the
accuracy of the estimate and is measured by the root mean square
error. We have seen in Equation (25.11)

Mean square error Sampling variance + (Bias)2

Root mean square error

The above relation may be expressed by a Pythagorean right-angled

triangle, where the hypotenuse is the root mean square error and the two
sides the sampling error and the bias respectively (Fig. 25.3).
In most cases, we can measure only the precision of an estimate by the
sampling error, although our main interest lies in measuring the accuracy
of the estimate.
In a census with complete enumeration of all the units, the sampling
variance of the survey mean and the census mean are the same; but the
mean square error of the (survey) mean, obtained on taking the expectation
of the square of the difference of the (survey) mean from the “true” mean,
would be present unless 6, = 0, individually, even if B (i.e., even if the
errors cancel out): see the special case (i) in Table 25.1.
Furthermore, the bias in a census is likely to be of a different type and
degree than that of a sample. This is because, although the “true” value
remains the same, the expected survey value would be different. It is also
generally difficult to conduct a census under the same general conditions
as that of a sample. The scale of operations being comparatively small,
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 437

J (Mean square error)

Sampl­ Sampl­
ing ing
error error

■ Sampling error * 8x Sampling error

Figure 25.3: Geometrical representation of total error, sampling error, and

bias.

sample surveys make it possible to exercise better control over the collection
and processing of data by employing superior enumerators, giving them
intensive training, and requiring interviews in depth (see section 1.3).
The aim in an inquiry, be it a census or a sample, should be to obtain
estimates with the greatest possible accuracy by controlling the total error
(as measured by the root mean square error) and not merely the sampling
error.

25.4.6 Effect of bias on errors of estimation

Evidently some error will be involved if the sampling error is used to set
confidence limits of the true value. Assuming that the estimator y is dis­
tributed normally about the expected value E(y) = Y, which is at a dis­
tance B from the true value Z (expression (25.9)), it is possible to estimate
the effects of the bias on errors of estimate (Cochran, section 1.7).
If the bias is one-tenth of the standard or less, its effect on the total
probability of an absolute error, i.e. \y — Z\ of more than 1.96 <7^ is
negligible. But when the bias is of the same order as the standard error,
the total probability becomes 0.1700, instead of the presumed 0.05 at B = 0.
For a bias which is four times the standard error, the total probability is
0.9793, more than nineteen times the presumed value. It has further been
shown that, in the above technique of setting confidence limits with the
standard error, when we presume, with a negative bias, that we shall be
wrong in the direction of underestimate only in 2.5 per cent of the cases,
we are more likely to be wrong in 98 per cent of the cases if the bias is four
times the standard error (Som, 1973, section 1.4.6).
438 Chapter 25

25.5 More complex models

More complex models of errors in data and estimates have been developed
by Cochran (1977); Fellegi (1964); Hansen and his colleagues (1951; 1953,
Vol. II, Chapter 12; 1961), and Sukhatme and Seth (1952), among others;
more recently developed models are reviewed in Measurement Errors in
Surveys (edited by Biemer el al., 1991), in particular by Biemer and Stokes
(1991). Following in general the formulation by Cochran, and elaborating
the model in section 25.4, we express ytj, the value obtained on the zth unit
(i = 1,2,..., n) in the j th independent repetition, as

Pij — zi + + (^t — &o) + djj = z\ 4- dij (25.12)

where z, is the true value; bo the constant bias over all the units; (6t — bo)
the variable component of the bias which follows some frequency distribu­
tion with mean zero as i varies and may be correlated with the correct value
zi\ dij = yij — (zi + bi) is the fluctuating component which follows some
frequency distribution with mean zero and variance cr2 as j varies for fixed
?; and z( = z, + 6,.
The mean y of an srs would be unbiased with variance <r2/n (ignoring the
finite multiplier) if all the measurements were accurate. However, because
of the errors of measurement, the mean may be subject to a bias B = bo
and its mean square error is
MS£(>/J= 1 [¿, +4{l+(n-l)p„}] + l>S (25.13)
J Tl
where al/N, and pw is the intrasample correlation of measure­
ments within the same sample defined by analogy with cluster sampling by
the equation
E(dijdi'j) — pw(?d
It can be shown that when errors of measurements are uncorrelated
within the sample and cancel out over the whole universe, the formulae
given in the preceding chapters for estimating sampling variances remain
valid for stratified and multi-stage sampling, although such errors decrease
the efficiency of the estimators. On the other hand, when pw is present (in
measurements and in processing, particularly if subjective judgement is in­
volved), it is likely to be positive, and the standard formulae for estimating
the variance of yj usually give an underestimate.

25.6 Measurement of response errors

Some types of response errors may be immediately evident in the data. The
misreporting of age is a well-known case in point, reflected in the heaping
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 439

of ages at some individual years (ending mostly in zeroes and fives) and
the corresponding deficiency at some others (mostly ending in odd digits
other than 5): very high or very low birth and death rates reported in some
demographic surveys and civil registration constitute another case.
Some methods of measuring response errors will be considered: external
record checks; re-surveys; interpenetrating networks of sub-samples; inter­
nal consistency checks; and analysis by recall periods.

25.6.1 External record checks

Such checks can be made only if accurate external data are available for each
unit of the universe. An example is the “Reverse Record Checks” made for
coverage errors in the 1960 Census of Population and Housing in the U.S.,
where probability samples of persons were drawn from different sources
of records, namely persons enumerated in the previous census, registered
aliens, children born in the intervening period, etc., or of special groups,
such as the aged social security beneficiaries and students enrolled in col­
leges and universities: these were checked against the census returns (U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 1963b). In countries with good hospital records,
data on hospitalization as reported in household interview surveys can be
compared with hospital records: this was done in the U.K. and the U.S.
In a large number of countries of the world, this method obviously either
cannot be used or would be of very limited value.
Where feasible, a related procedure is to monitor responses which are
objective in nature. This is illustrated by the checking of the validity of the
telephone coincidental method for determining the in-home radio station
rating. In this method, telephone calls are made at random times during
each quarter hour period of the day to a random sample of individuals in
listed telephone households; the selected person is asked if the radio is on,
and if it is, to identify the station that was tuned in. In a survey conducted
the late 1960s in the New York Metropolitan area, this method was tested
as follows. Each interviewer who did the calling had at her disposal an
electronic device whereby she could transmit, over the telephone she was
using, the broadcast currently coming from any of the leading twenty A.M.
stations in the area by pressing any of the twenty buttons. In the telephone
interview, when the radio was reportedly on and the program was identified
by the respondent, the interviewer pressed the test button corresponding
to the station reported. If then the respondent reported that what was
coming over the telephone was the same as what was on his radio, the
original response was considered to be correct. Of the total 854 responses
validated in the test, 91 per cent of the responses were found correct by
this procedure (Frankel, 1969). Groves et al. (1989) have described more
440 Chapter 25

recent techniques of validation of telephone interviews.

25.6.2 Re-survey
A standard method of measuring and adjusting for response errors in a
survey, whether a census or a sample, is the re-survey of a sub-sample
of units in the original survey, preferably using a more detailed schedule,
and, in a personal interview, with better staff (either the supervisors or
the better set of interviewers). For population and housing censuses, the
ultimate sampling unit in re-surveys should be compact areal units. In
the form of a post-enumeration check, such re-surveys are now almost
universal with population censuses.
A re-survey can form an integrated part of the original survey, as in
the Demographic Sample Survey of Guinea, in 1954-5, where in addition,
whenever infant deaths were considered to be grossly under-reported in
a village, a medical team was sent to re-interview the females (Ministère
de la France d’Outre-Mer, 1956). Unless conducted simultaneously with
the original survey or immediately after it, the re-survey introduces some
operational and technical difficulties.
The conducting of a re-survey, in the form of a post-enumeration
check, i.e. a Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), to evaluate a census is
a relatively recent phenomenon. For four countries with a long tradition
of census-taking, the year when the first population census was conducted
and the year when a PES was first introduced in the census are: the U.S.
- 1790 and 1950; the U.K. - 1801 and 1961; Canada - 1871 and 1951; and
India - 1872 and 1951.
Unitary checks with one-to-one matching (e.g. of persons in a popu­
lation census and the PES) is considered as the essential, integral part of
post-enumerative checks of censuses to check both gross and net errors;
however, the difficulty of such matching with the available resources may be
so enormous in some countries that checks at the aggregate levels (e.g. of
the total number of persons in the selected areal units) may be considered
practical to check only the net errors.
The statistical model in a re-survey is

Etf) = Z

on the assumption that the bias element B = 0, the letters with primes
denoting the value obtained from the re-survey. The difference (y — y1)
therefore gives an estimator of the bias element B in the original survey.
Adjustments may also be made by regression and ratio estimators.
Some estimates of the under-enumeration of the total population (i.e.
the coverage error) in a number of censuses are as follows: 1/2 per cent in
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 441

the U.S.S.R. in 1959; 1.1 per cent in Canada in 1956; 1.1 per cent (and 3.5
per cent by analytical methods) in the U.S. in 1950; 3.5 per cent in Sierra
Leone in 1963; and 8.0 per cent in Swaziland in 1956. For the U.K., an
estimate at census date in 1951 exceeded the final count by 0.3 per cent;
and in 1961 a careful retrawl of sample areas and interviews with a small
sub-sample of households, carried out immediately after the census, gave
no evidence of significant under- or over-enumeration (Benjamin, 1968).
Note that the use of demographic-analytical techniques generally provides
a higher degree of under-count in the census, e.g. 3.6 percent (Coale, 1955)
as compared to 1.4 percent given by the PES in the 1950 population census
of the U.S.
In agricultural inquiries too, under-enumeration can be sizable. In an
experiment conducted in Greece, the farmers were found to have under-
reported by 36 per cent the number of parcels operated by them, and in
the 1979 Census of Agriculture in the U.S., the total number of farms were
under-counted by 8.4 per cent and the area of farms in lands by 6 per cent,
whereas the coefficients of variation of the estimated totals were of the order
of 1 per cent only (Sukhatme et al. (1984), section 11.19).
In crop surveys, whenever eye estimates are used, the results should be
calibrated by comparison with the physical measurements of a sub-sample:
this assumes a high positive correlation between the two sets of figures
(Yates, section 4.25, examples 6.12b and 7.15b, and sections 6.15 and 7.17).

Note: The net error is the resultant of positive and negative error, obtained on
a one-to-one matching of the orginal survey, e.g. a census, and the re-survey; and
the gross error is the absolute total of both positve and negative errors, ignoring
their sign. The net error can be considered to be a measure of the non-sampling
bias in the original survey and the gross error as a measure of the non-sampling
variation, i.e., the response variance (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1963a).

25.6.3 Supervision on a probability basis

If supervision of the field work done by the primary enumerators could be
arranged on a probability basis, the results of the field checks by the su­
pervisors could be utilized to measure and control the response biases in
the work of the enumerators (Sukhatme et al. (1984), Section 11.10). How­
ever, this is not generally done on various theoretical and practical grounds.
When the comparably weak enumerators receive a proportionately greater
amount of supervision, the overall quality of the basic data is undoubt­
edly improved, but the final results will contain an unknown element of
correction consequent on supervision.
In the U.S. Current Population Surveys, the re-interview survey is used
as a quality control operation for the enumerators as well as an evaluation
442 Chapter 25

and research tool (see Hansen, Hurwitz, and Bershad, 1961, and Hansen,
Hurwitz and Pritzker, 1964). Tentative consideration given to the possi­
bility of adjustment of the results of the original survey on the basis of
the re-interview caused some doubt that it would be worthwhile, because,
on the whole, the differences were not large. It could not be done cur­
rently, month by month, with the present sampling design, because the
re-interview sample was too small. The introduction of the re-interview
results by a double sampling procedure would, on the other hand, call for a
considerable change in sampling design. None of these seemed to have suf­
ficient merit to be justified but would have caused additional work and cost
(Personal communication in 1961 from Morris H. Hansen, then Assistant
Director for Research and Development, U.S. Bureau of the Census).
In the Indian National Sample survey also, although there is on an av­
erage one supervisor to four enumerators, supervision is not arranged on a
probability basis, primarily because there is reason to believe that the qual­
ity of work of the primary enumerators in the sub-sample for supervision
would be different from that in the rest of the sample, because in actual
practice, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to keep the enumerators
ignorant of the supervisor’s sub-sample: the scheme itself then might en­
courage negligence in the sample falling outside the supervisor’s sub-sample.
Moreover, the supervisor himself might be interested in demonstrating that
the enumerators working under him are doing a good job, otherwise his
competence as a supervisor might be called into question (Personal obser­
vations made to the author in 1962 by D.B. Lahiri, then Advisor to the
National Sample Survey Department, Indian Statistical Institute).

25.6.4 Internal consistency checks

A simple check of consistency of data is to examine items with implausibly
high or low figures. A number of checks may also be introduced in the
schedules to ascertain whether consistent replies are obtained from two
sets of questions, the first a broad question or item of information in a
schedule, and the second with cross-checks and fully detailed probes.
The total number of children borne by a woman can be asked directly
and compared with the total of the number of children at present living
in the same household, the number living away, and the number who have
died. Information on the sexual life within marriage has been asked in the
U.S. and that on the use of contraceptives from both husband and wife in
a large number of countries, sometimes with startlingly different results.
Some of these checks are negative in the sense that they would not reveal
any systematic bias.
Another check of internal consistency is the comparison of differential
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 443

reporting in proxy and self-interviews. In the U.S. National Health Sur­

vey, for example, about one-fifth of the minor non-chronic conditions were
missed due to the acceptance of proxy interviews (Nisselson and Woolsey,
1959).
In crop-yield surveys, internal consistency checks are provided by mea­
surements of yields from cuts of concentric circles: a comparison could also
be made of the cuts of the same area but with different shapes such as a
circle, triangle, rectangle, square, etc., where a circle with the minimum
perimeter would be least subject to the border bias. In any case, the
final checks will be made with the result of harvesting the whole sample
field, working under the same survey conditions (see the references cited in
section 25.3.2iii).
In demographic inquiries, with repeated visits of the same sample of
households after an interval of time, such as six months or a year, informa­
tion on pregnancies collected in a visit can be checked with their outcomes
in the subsequent visit(s): this method was used with considerable success
in Pakistan and Turkey. Such repeated visits can also provide generally ac­
curate estimates of births, deaths, and migration in the intervening period
as they did in India in 1958-9; these are, however, more expensive than
one-time surveys.

25.6.5 Interpenetrating network of sub-samples

This technique, introduced by P.C. Mahalanobis in sample surveys in India
in the 1940s, consists of subdividing the total number of units in the survey
(sample of census) into a number of parallel, random groups and permits
the testing by the analysis of variance the differential effects of enumerators
and of other factors, e.g. variation in the field schedules, and methods of
collection, etc. (section 24.7).
A simple tabulation may often reveal differences in the estimates ob­
tained by different enumerators covering the same universe. In the models
discussed in sections 25.4 and 25.5, the bias element (Be), where e refers to
the enumerator, may be taken to consist of two parts, a constant bias (B )
that affects all the enumerators alike, and another component (Bg) that
affects the eth enumerator. The F-ratio of “between enumerator” vari-
ance/the relevant “error” variance tests the hypothesis Be = constant, i.e.
that the biases of the enumerators do not differ significantly.
It is also possible, by the use of the Studentized smallest Chi-square, to
test the significance of the smallest of the difference between two enumer­
ators (Ramachandran, 1959): a significant smallest variance ratio would
lead one to suspect collusion between the two enumerators.
The net bias common to all enumerators (B ) passes undetected by this
444 Chapter 25

technique. It has to be controlled by improvement in survey methodol­

ogy, comparisons with independently obtained estimates, and adoption of
special analytical techniques.

Note: As mentioned earlier, this technique can be used to test the differential
bias of the primary enumerators versus that of the supervisors, or, in a health
survey, the lay enumerators versus medical or para-medical staff, or to test the
differences of estimates obtained by different types of schedules (one with direct
questions and another with fully detailed probes), or by different methods of
inquiry (retrospective versus periodic observations), and these different sources of
variation could be taken up in combination in different sub-samples. As it is very
unlikely that there will be a constant bias running through all these combinations,
one could meet one of the commonest objections to the use of this technique
(Mahalanobis, 1958, Preface; Som, 1965, Appendix 2).

Another formulation would be that due to Cochran (section 14.15). A

random sample of n units is divided at random into k sub-samples, each
containing m = n/k units, and each of the k enumerators is assigned a
different sub-sample. We assume that the correlation we have to deal with
is due solely to the biases of the enumerators and that there is no correlation
between errors of measurement for different enumerators.
The previous statistical model (25.12) is rewritten as
yei —: Zei T dei

where e denotes the sub-sample (enumerator) and i the member (unit)

within the sub-sample. The finite multiplier is ignored.
The variance of the mean of the eth random sub-sample is, by equation
(25.13)
V^e>)=m + ~ !)Pw}]
where pw is the correlation between the de, values obtained by the same
enumerator.
As the errors are assumed to be independent in the different sub-samples,
| V(ye) = H2' + (m- l)pw}] (25.14)

From the sample data, analysis of variance could be computed for the
variations due to “between enumerators (sub-samples)” and “within enu­
merators” with respective mean squares
k
Sb =
k m

sl = ZL -yey/k(m- !)
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 445

As s^/n is an unbiased estimator of V(y), the technique provides an

estimate of error that takes account of the enumerator bias; and the F-
ratio tests the null hypothesis pw = 0.
The technique is readily extended to stratified multi-stage sampling by
simply ensuring that the sample consists of a number of sub-samples of
the same structure in which errors of measurements are independent in
different sub-samples. Strictly speaking, the process of interpenetration
should go deeper than the field, with not only different enumerator-teams,
but also of supervisors, data processors etc. used in different sub-samples:
in epidemiological surveys, which may require laboratory testing and X-ray
reading by independent observers.
An unbiased estimator of V(jy) is provided by ^k(ye — yY/k(k — 1) with
(k — 1) degrees of freedom. If k = 2 in each stratum, each stratum provides
one degree of freedom and the computation of estimates is simplified, as
noted in section 9.5.
This method was followed in computing the variance estimates in the
Indian National Survey quoted in this book (Examples 10.2 and 21.4). Con­
formance to the fundamental formulae in stratified multi-stage sampling
was established by assigning in a stratum each of two or more enumerators,
each sub-sample consisting of the same number of first-stage sample units.
Similar estimates of errors (but excluding the enumerator bias) can in
many cases be obtained from a sample - which was not planned as an
interpenetrating network - by sub-dividing the sample into sub-samples
in some appropriate random manner (see also section 24.8.1, “Method of
random groups”).
The use of this method in providing errors of estimates in complex sam­
ple designs and computations is particularly to be noted: one example is
the computation of price index numbers from a sample (Koop, 1960), and
another is the situation when the data pass through a number of adjustment
processes. If the inquiry is arranged in the form of a number of interpen­
etrating sub-samples, the sub-sample estimates would remain comparable
when subjected to the same transformation and adjustment procedures.
There is a simple non-parametric way of expressing the margin of un­
certainty of the estimates from the sub-samples. Each of the independent
sub-samples provides an independent and equally valid estimate of the pa­
rameter under study, and therefore gives directly an estimate of the margin
of uncertainty involved in the estimate. This is an advantage of particular
relevance to surveys in countries where suitable personnel and equipment
for estimating the sampling variances of a large number of estimates are
scarce.
The probability that the median of the distribution of the sample es­
timates (which is assumed to be symmetrical) will be contained by the
446 Chapter 25

range of k estimates obtained from the k independent, interpenetrating

sub-samples is 1 — (l/2)fc_1. With two sub-samples, for example, the range
between the two sub-sample estimates provides 50 per cent margin of un­
certainty for the combined estimate of the two sub-samples; with four sub­
samples, the range between the smallest and the largest estimates will pro­
vide 87.5 per cent margin of uncertainty for the combined estimate of the
four sub-samples. The derivation of such limits, besides being simple, in­
volves a minimum of assumptions regarding the sampling distribution of
the estimates (see also, Deming (1960), p. 116). An example is provided
by the two sub-sample estimates of the birth rate in India in 1958-9, 38.5
and 38.0, with the combined estimate of 38.3 per 1000 persons (Som et al.,
1961).
In regard to testing enumerator differences, one example is provided by
the Mysore Population Survey in 1951-2, conducted jointly by the Govern­
ment of India and the United Nations in the then State of Mysore; only
one F-ratio came out statistically significant in one “round” (there were
four “rounds” of work) relating to the number of vacant dwelling units in
Bangalore City (U.N., 1961, Chapter 31). Another example relates to the
1953 Demographic Sample Survey of the Indigenous African Population of
Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), where the 10 sub-samples adopted
to determine the sampling errors were not statistically significant, showing
that the survey was under statistical control, but the six districts showed
significant variation of birth and death rates (Som, 1965).
A limitation of the technique is an increase in the cost of travels by the
enumerators. This could be reduced by stratifying the sample into compact
areas and assigning, say, two enumerators in each stratum, each covering
one half-sample. In the Indian National Sample Survey, the increase in
travel cost due to interpenetration constituted about 3 1/2 per cent of the
total cost (Som, 1965).
Small enumerator differences cannot in general be detected by this tech­
nique, unless linked samples are used. It should not of course be considered
as a substitute for supervision and other control of filed and processing
work.

25.6.6 Analysis by recall period

In retrospective inquiries, where questions are asked about events which
occurred in the near and distant past, a tabulation by recall periods of
varying lengths often reveals the existence of recall lapse, which may other­
wise lie hidden in the overall estimates. Recall lapse has been observed or
suspected in a number of situations in both the developing the developed
countries relating to demographic and household consumption and many
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 447

other types of inquiry.

The statistical model of recall analysis in current vital data is briefly as
follows. Estimates (Y^) are built up from cumulative recall periods k (=
1 month, 2 months,...,12 months, for example), the mathematical expecta­
tions of which are given by E(Yk) = Z + Bk, where Z is the “true” total
number of events, and Bk the recall bias, which is a function of k, the recall
period.
If there were no recall bias, i.e. Bk — 0, then E’(Yfc) = Z. In practice,
the YfcS, as obtained from the data, are smoothed by a curve /(A), from
which Yq = /(0), corresponding to the recall period “0”, can be estimated
and taken to be equal to Z on the assumption that Bq = 0. The estimate
of the vital rate is then obtained on dividing Yo by the corresponding pop­
ulation estimate. This is in essence the recall analytical technique (“/Ae
Som method^}.
By applying this analytical technique, the reported crude birth and
death rates in the Indian National Sample Survey (1953-4), 34.3 and 16.6
per 1000, were adjusted to 40.9 and 24.0 respectively; the reported crude
birth rates in Upper Volta (1960-1) and Chad (1964) and the reported crude
death rate in Morocco (1973), were 49.6, 45.0 and 10.8 per 1000, and these
were adjusted to 52.6, 49.0 and 16.5 respectively (Som, 1973; Nadot, 1966;
Hosni, 1975).
Bailar and Biemer (1984) have extended the recall analysis model. A
template for the application of this technique, based on Quattro Pro spread­
sheet, was prepared by the author in 1990 and distributed by the U.N.
Statistical Division/Software Development Project; an update is available
from the author.

25.6.7 Other external analytical checks

The external unitary check most relevant in estimating vital rates is the
one-to-one matching of the current vital events, reported in a survey, with
those registered. The method for adjustment of the data from such a check
in demographic inquiries is based on the assumption that the chance of an
event being missed in either list (survey or registration) is independent of
its chance of being missed in the other (Chandra Sekar and Deming, 1949).
This is the same as the Lincoln Index, used in estimating the size of mo­
bile populations such as birds and animals by the capture and recapture
method (section 24.4). This technique has found applications in a series
of nation-wide demographic surveys known as Population Growth Esti­
mation (PGE) Studies - conducted, with initial technical support from
the Population Council, in Liberia, Malawi, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey,
and a few other countries in the 1960s (Marks, Seltzer, and Krotki, 1976;
448 Chapter 25

Krotki, 1966 and 1978). For the experiences of “Dual Record System”,
operated by the Laboratories for Population Statistics, University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill, see Adlaka et al. (1977) and Myers (1976).
Assuming that the under-reporting in the survey and under-registration
operate independently, the adjustment (multiplying) factor for the total
number of events reported by either or both the agencies is 1/(1 — pi — p2),
where pi is the probability of an event not being reported in the survey,

Pl — ysr/^ysr T ysr)

and p2 is the probability of an event not being registered,

P2 — ysf/^Psr T Psf}

the subscripts s and s denoting whether the event was reported in the
survey or not; and similarly for r and r. For the total number of events,
the estimator (“the Chandra Sekar - Deming formula"} is

N — (ysr T Psr T J/«f)/(l Pl P2) — (?/sr d" 2/jr)(i/sr T ysr}/ysr

It is a consistent, maximum likelihood estimator but is generally biased.

A variance estimator of N* is

/T(l - pi)(l -P2)/P1P2

In the Survey of Population Change in Thailand, this method raised the

survey-estimated birth rate and death rates of 42.2 and 10.9 respectively to
46.0 and 12.9 per 1000 persons (Lauriat and Chinatakananda, 1966), and in
the Pakistan PGE Study in 1961-3, the method provided for an additional
5 per cent of births and 7 per cent of deaths missed by the special registrars
and the survey-enumerators (Krotki, 1966).

25.7 Control of non-sampling errors

Response errors can be controlled by the proper selection, training, and su­
pervision of enumerators and the control of enumeration. From expression
(25.14) it might appear that, since an increase in the number of enumer­
ators would decrease the intra-enumerator correlation, the contribution to
the total variance due to the variability between enumerators would also
decrease. But when a very large number of enumerators have to be em­
ployed, one has to accept a lower level of staff, training and supervision,
resulting in a change in survey conditions that would increase the response
errors.
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 449

Response errors can also be controlled by introducing internal consis­

tency checks in the questionnaires and by asking screening questions
and probes. In the U.S. National Health Survey, for example, only half
the chronic conditions were reported in response to the initial questions
and the checklist questions were necessary to pick up the other half; for
sicknesses without medical care and restricted activity, the proportion of
cases missed by the initial probes was as high as two-thirds (Nisselson and
Woolsey, 1959). In the morbidity studies conducted in the Indian National
Survey, 1960-61, the broad questions, “During the last thirty days did you
or any member of your household have any sickness or injury?”, elicited
three-quarters of the total sicknesses, and a reference to specific symp­
toms and sites included all but less than 4 per cent; additional probing on
medical treatment and medicines and on women’s complaints reported the
remaining sicknesses (Das, 1969).
In the processing of data, quality control techniques can also be
usefully introduced, For example, the work of each data entry operator can
be verified one hundred per cent initially, and then when his error rate falls
below a set level, only a sample verification is required of him. This method
has been used in practice at the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Owing to the
danger of back-sliding, it might not be advisable to withdraw completely
verification of the work on data editing and data entry.
When data are processed manually, estimates for the important items
may be calculated by two or more independent teams of computing clerks.
Some further consideration is given to the subject in sections 26.11,
26.12, and 26.14-26.17 on methods of data collection, questionnaire prepa­
ration, pilot inquiries and pretests, selection and training of enumerators,
supervision and processing of data.

25.8 Evaluation and control of sampling versus non-sampling errors

For a given total size of a sample, the sampling error can be controlled and
evaluated in a suitably designed survey with considerations of optimization
of stratification, allocation of the total sample size into different strata and
stages, probabilities of selection, etc., and by using appropriate formulae
for estimation, relating all these to the important variables to be studied.
The sampling error can be reduced by increasing the sample, but it may
introduce additional non-sampling errors in the estimates unless the sur­
vey conditions remain the same. Some requirements of the reduction of
sampling errors may, however, come in conflict with those of the response
errors, e.g. while sampling consideration might call for a widespread sam­
pling with little clustering, a concern for the response errors might lead the
survey designer to confine the sample to a sample of large clusters in which
450 Chapter 25

(a)

Figure 25.4: Effect of sample size on mean square error.

supervisory inspection and control can be more fully exercised (Hansen,

Hurwitz, and Pritzker, 1964). In addition, complete enumeration of the
areal units may have other advantages, e.g. cross-check of information of
the neighboring households in a social or demographic inquiry, and the psy­
chological effect that the inquiry relates to all persons in the selected area
rather than those in some households. The latter factor is of importance
both in developing and developed countries, and is one of the factors de­
termining the choice of enumeration districts as the sampling units in the
Micro-Census of the Federal Republic of Germany (see Exercise 5, Chapter
10).
The effect of increasing sample size may also be represented by Figure
25.4(a). This may, however, be somewhat misleading, as the magnitude of
the bias has been assumed to be constant, independent of the sample size.
A better way of representing the effect of sample size on the sampling error
and the bias would be given in Figure 25.4(b); for a particular sample size,
the total error, as measured by the root mean square, may be minimum;
beyond that, increasing sample size would, no doubt, decrease the sampling
error but would also increase the non-sampling errors, which might more
than offset the decrease in sampling error.
This is also seen from equation (25.13). In the formula for the mean
square error, the two terms (T^i/n and <Tj(l — pw)/n will decrease with
increasing n; but it cannot be assumed that the other two terms, aj and 6q,
although independent of n, will not be affected by the survey procedures due
to a change in the size of the sample, and that the intrasample correlation
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 451

between errors and the constant bias will remain the same; i.e., and
might well increase with sample size. In large samples, the mean square
error will be dominated by these terms and the ordinary sampling variance
will be a poor guide to the accuracy of the results, unless the non-sampling
errors are controlled substantially.
To try to reduce sampling errors while a bias several times as large
is allowed to creep in is not only pointless but also a waste of resources
(Sukhatme and Sukhatme (1960), p. 543).
Reference has been made in section 1.3 to the study made at the U.S.
Bureau of the Census, which showed that for many of the more difficult
items in a census, such as occupation, industry, work status, income and
education, the enumerator variability is approximately the same as the sam­
pling variance for a 25 per cent sample of households; the census results
were further seen to be subject to a bias which varied from one item to an­
other and was 6 per cent on average. The census and the sample will have
approximately the same bias if the census enumerators collect the data for
the sample of 25 per cent of households as part of the regular census. Under
these assumptions, the root mean square errors that can be expected for
the complete enumeration, and the sample for various percentages of units
possessing a certain attribute, are given in Table 25.2 for areas with differ­
ent population sizes. While the root mean square errors for the complete
enumeration and the sample are appreciably different in areas with small
populations, they converge with increasing population size and become al­
most identical for areas with 50,000 persons. Thus, when the major census
results are published for areas with 50,000 or more persons, it is more ad­
vantageous to take a sample for these particular items. This procedure has
been followed since the 1960 census of population in the United States (U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 1960).

25.9 Evaluation and adjustment for non-response

25.9.1 Effect of non-response

We assume that the universe of N units can be divided into two strata, the
first consisting of Ni units for which measurements would be obtained and
the second of N2 for which no measurement would be obtained either in a
census or a sample. Let Y\ and Y2 denote the two stratum-means. When
the field work is completed for an srs of n units, consisting of units from
the first stratum and 122 units from the second stratum, we would have
measurement only from the ni sample units, giving the sample mean
Assuming that ni and ri2 are random samples from the two strata, the
452 Chapter 25

Table 25.2: Magnitude of root mean square of the estimated percentages

of population in complete enumeration (census) and a sample survey of 25
per cent of households for areas of specific size: Experimental Study of the
U.S. Bureau of the Census

Root mean square (in percentage) for an area with a

Percentage population of
of
population
to be 2,500 10,000 50,000
estimated Census Sample Census Sample Census Sample

0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

2.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2

5.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4

20.0 2.0 2.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3

50.0 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.1

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1960).

amount of bias in the sample mean is

£(5,) - y = y,-y = y1- (NiY, + N2Y 2)/N = (N2/N)(Y\ - Y2)

The amount of bias is thus the product of the proportion of non­

responding units and the difference between the two stratum-means. Any
sizeable proportion of non-response or difference between the two stratum­
means would produce a substantial bias. For example, a 5 per cent non­
response observed in some Africa and Indian fertility surveys may not sub­
stantially affect fertility rates, but the same percentage will produce a large
bias in surveys of incomes, sales etc., if the non-responding units are those
with very high incomes or sales.

25.9.2 Adjustment for non-response

Three methods of adjustment for non-response will be considered: (i) se­
lecting random substitutes from the responding units; (ii) “call-back” or
selecting a random sub-sample of the non-responding units; and (iii) ad­
justment for bias without call-backs.
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 453

(i) Selecting random substitutes from the responding units. When the
proportion of non-response is low and the difference between the two
stratum-means is believed not to be substantial, a simple practical method
is to replace the non-responding units by a random sub-sample of the re­
sponding units. This is relevant particularly in self-weighting designs in
order to keep the multiplier a constant.

(ii) “Call-backs” or selecting a random sub-sample of the non-responding

units (Hansen-Hurwitz method). Of the total number 722 of the non-respond­
ing sample units, suppose a sub-sample n2 is chosen for call-backs (or re­
mailing of the questionnaire in a mail inquiry), all of whom respond as
result of special efforts. Then an unbiased estimator of the universe mean
Y is + n2y2)/?7> where y2 is the sample mean from n2 call-backs.
Assume the cost function C = nci + nPc2 + n(l — P)c3/k, where c^ is the
cost per unit of making the first attempt, c2 the cost per unit of processing
the data of the first attempt, c3 the cost per unit of collecting and processing
the data of the second attempt, P(= N^/N) is the proportion of universe
units that would have responded at the first attempt, and k = n3ln2.
Under some broad assumptions, the optimum value of k is given by
k = y/\Pc3/(cx -|- Pc2)] (25.15)

whence
n = n'[l + (k- 1)(1-P)] (25.16)
Note that although we have assumed that all the n2 units respond at the
second attempt, they may not in fact do so. The process of call-backs could
be continued until all but a very insignificant proportion of the units re­
spond: the Hansen-Hurwitz method has been extended by El Badry (1956).
Successive calls may help to diminish the bias and a graph (Clausen and
Ford, 1947) or a regression curve fitted to the estimates and the cumulated
rates of responses at successive attempts when extrapolated to the hypo­
thetical case of 100 per cent response could give a better approximation
to the true value (Hendricks, 1949; 1956, Chapter XI). Some results of the
inquiry of fruit growers in North Carolina, U.S., are given in Table 25.3;
the initial response gave a very high average number of fruit trees per farm
(456) in North Carolina because a farmer’s interest in a fruit survey could
be expected to be positively associated with his scale of operation, but a
regression curve of the form y = axb, where y represents the total number
of trees picked by a sample when the (cumulative) percentage return is x
(and a and b are estimated from the data), when extrapolated to x = 100
per cent, gave an estimate of 344 trees per farm, as against the true value
of 329, which was known (Hendricks, 1956).
454 Chapter 25

Table 25.3: Results of three repeated mailings to a list of 3,241 North

Carolina fruit growers

Mailing Percentage of Average trees Cumulative

Questionnaires per farm for
returned reporting Percentage of Average trees
farms questionaires per farm for
returned reporting
farms

1 9.3 456 9.3 456

2 16.7 382 26.0 406

3 13.4 340 39.4 385

Estimated from fitted regression 100 346

True value 100 329

Source: Hendricks (1956).

In the 1946 Family Census of the U.K., the initial response gave a
very high birth rate due to the fact that the majority of the initial non­
respondents were women with few or no children: of the 230,000 initial
non-respondents (who constituted 17 per cent of the total sample), 50,000
responded to the follow-up appeal and the replies of the first 12,000 of them,
when combined with the remainder of the sample with a weight of 230/12,
gave an adjusted birth rate which corresponded to that already known from
other sources (Glass and Grebenik, 1954; cited by Yates, section 5.22, and
by Moser & Kalton, section 7.4).

(iii) Adjustment for bias without call-backs (Hartley-Politz-Simmons

method). For dealing with the not-at-home cases, a procedure that saves
the cost of call-backs may be adopted which consists of ascertaining from
the respondents the chance of their being at home at a particular point of
time and weighting the results by the reciprocal of this probability. Suppose
the enumerators make calls on households during the evening on six nights
of the week. The household members are asked whether they were at home
at the time of the interview on each of the five preceding evenings. The
households may then be classified according to r, the number of evenings
the household members were at home out of five, and the ratio (r + l)/6
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 455

taken as an estimate of the probability of the household members being

at home during the enumeration hours. If nr is the number of interviews
obtained in the group r and yr is the group mean, then the estimator of
the universe mean is

Er=o6nrl/r/(r + 1)
EL06nr/(r+1)

The method is obviously biased as no allowance is made for persons who

are away from home during the enumeration hours for all the six evenings:
the bias is however negligible if such persons are relatively few. The variance
formula for y is rather complicated.

25.10 Concluding remarks

Sampling inquiries have assumed a crucial role in providing data in ar­

eas with defective or non-existent registration systems and also in enabling
in-depth studies of socioeconomic variables and their interrelations. A sam­
ple survey also makes it possible to ensure quality checks and incorporate
special techniques to adjust for response biases.
To that end, however, there can be no routine procedure. Methods
suitable to the particular data have to be applied as critically as possible.
Assessment should be made with existing knowledge on the characteristics
of the universe and the field procedures that could be obtained. The greater
the detail recorded and tabulated in the survey, the more potent should the
checks for accuracy and internal consistency could be, and hence the greater
the likelihood that important discrepancies could be detected and adjusted
for in estimates.
A combination of several methods for evaluating response errors is nat­
urally likely to give better results than the use of a single method. For these
methods to be effective, they should be built into the survey design so as
to permit the required analysis: one example is the staggering of the total
sample over the survey period in a demographic inquiry in order to elimi­
nate seasonality in vital events in recall analysis. This should, of course, be
supplemented by post hoc techniques, wherever possible. But these too, in
order to be effective and theoretically valid, should be integrated into the
overall survey design.

Further reading
Two books - Nonsampling Error in Surveys by Lessler and Kalsbeek (1992) and
Measurement Errors in Surveys (edited by Biemer et al., 1991) - describe recent
developments on the topics.
456 Chapter 25

For classification and examples of non-sampling errors: Deming (1950; 1960);

Mahalanobis (1946a); Som (1973), Chapter 1.
For evaluation of non-sampling errors (especially response and non-response
errors), including incomplete data: Bailar and Biemer (1984); Chaudhuri and
Stenger, Chapter 11; Cochran, Chapter 13; Deming (1960), Chapter 5, (1966),
Chapter 2, and (1963); Foreman, Chapter 11; Groves; Kalton (1983b); Kish
(1965), Chapter 13; Madow et al., three volume on incomplete data in sample
surveys; Martin (1993); Moser and Kalton, Chapter 15; Murthy (1967), Chapter
12; Neter and Waksberg (1965) for response errors in household expenditure data;
Rubin; Singh and Chaudhary, Chapter 12; Som (1973), Chapter 1; Sogunro;
Sukhatme et al. (1984), Chapter 11; U.N. (1972).
For evaluation of non-sampling errors in specific subject-fields, see the refer­
ences given for Chapter 26.
For other topics covered in this chapter see the references cited in the text.

Exercises

1. In spite of the deficient reporting of two-member households, the sample for

the morbidity study in Syracuse in 1930-31, cited in section 25.3.2 (ii), was
considered satisfactory, as is indicated by the statement that the workers
“had been primarily concerned with securing a sample, representative of
the area in regard to prevalence of sickness rather than size of household.”
Comment on this statement.
(Hint: “Actually such a biased sample can scarcely be regarded as wholly
satisfactory for even a morbidity study, since sickness rates are likely to
vary with the size and composition of the family” (Yates, 1981, section
2.4)).
2. Check for possible inconsistency the following results obtained from a de­
mographic sample survey of Kinsenso (a suburb of Kinshasa, Zaire) in
mid-1965; the reference period for births and deaths was 1 July 1964-30
June 1965 (Knoop, 1966, Tables IV and VIII): Total population under one
year of age: 790; Total births: 708; and Deaths of infants under one year
of age: 51.
(Hints: of the total births, numbering 708, during the reference period,
some died within the reference period itself (of course, before attaining
one year of age). Such infant deaths, i.e., the number of infants born and
dying within the same reference of one year, represent in general two-thirds
of the total infant deaths during the reference period (i.e., the number of
infants born and dying within the reference year plus the number of infants
born before the reference year but dying within the reference year before
attaining one year of age). The total number of infant deaths during the
reference year is given as 51. Even taking the absurd assumption that the
deaths of infants under one year age, numbering 51, related only to infants
born during the reference year, then subtracting this number (51) from the
total births during the reference year (708), one would get the number of
Errors and Biases in Data and Estimates 457

surviving infants, under one year of age, which would normally equal the
number of total population under one year of age at the time of the survey.
The latter number is given as 790, higher than the total births during
the year. The normal relationship may, however, be upset in the unusual
situation of a very heavy immigration of infants to the area selected for the
survey, who are enumerated in the survey but whose births are not covered
in the survey owing to adopted definitions (Som, 1973, Exercise 1.10.4)).
CHAPTER 26

Planning, Execution
and Analysis of Surveys

26.1 Introduction

W. Edwards Deming (1969, page 666) has stated the importance of the
preparation of survey procedures in the following forceful words:

“Statistical teaching centres might well include in the curricu­

lum some small amount of time on preparation of procedures.
How many students with doctor’s degrees have had the experi­
ence of writing a set of procedures for a study, complete with
statistical controls to detect departures from the procedure de­
scribed, and of learning the hard way that he may have to write
these instructions twelve times before he learns that if there is
any possible way to misconstrue an instruction, someone will do
it?”

Some aspects of the planning, execution, and analysis of statistical sur­

veys are considered in this chapter. Most of the considerations excepting
those relating to the choice of the sample design would apply also to com­
plete enumerations.
The considerations will of necessity be brief here. References to survey
methods in some selected subject fields are given at the end of the chapter.
A case study dealing with the survey methods and sample design of the
Indian National Sample Survey (1964-5) is given in Appendix V. References
to some selected case studies are given under “Further reading” in Appendix
V.

459
460 Chapter 26

26.2 Objectives of the survey

The Objectives of the survey should be clearly specified to include the

following:

1. A clear statement of the desired information in statistical terms, such

as estimation of total personal incomes and expenditures on food and
other items in a family budget inquiry, or the area and the yield of a
certain crop in an agricultural inquiry, or the rates of birth, death and
natural increase in a demographic inquiry, or the number of persons
with pulmonary tuberculosis in an epidemiological inquiry.

2. A description of the coverage and the definition of the universe such

as the geographic region or branch of the economic or social group
or other categories constituting parts of the universe covered by the
survey. In a survey of human population, for example, it is neces­
sary to specify whether hotel residents, persons in institutions (e.g.
boarding houses and sanatoria), homeless people, persons without
fixed abode, military personnel, etc. are to be included and, where
possible, to indicate the order of magnitude of the categories omitted;
in an agricultural survey, it will be necessary to indicate whether ail
agricultural holdings have been included.

3. The geographical and classificatory breakdowns by which results are

to be tabulated.

4. The degree of precision desired, specifying the sampling error that

can be tolerated, as also an indication of the possible inaccuracies in
the final estimates.

5. The total cost of the survey.

26.3 Legal basis

Surveys, especially field enumeration, should be conducted with the legal

authority obtained in a country. The confidentiality of individual informa­
tion should be clearly established and guaranteed by adequate sanctions so
as to form a basis for the confident cooperation of the respondents.

26.4 Publicity and cooperation of respondents

The objective of publicity in the form of educational campaigns is twofold:

first, to allay any anxiety regarding the purposes of the surveys concerning,
for example, taxation, conscription, and repatriation of immigrant labor
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 461

and forced labor in some countries, and, second, to explain the reasons for
the various questions to be asked. The publicity media may include films,
articles for the press, booklets, talks for radio, television and general press
release.
On the other hand, in some surveys, such as the Social Survey in the
U.K., publicity was never used for it was believed better to take the respon­
dents by surprise: if they had had time to think out the matter they may
have decided to refuse or to present some socially acceptable response. But
faced with an actual human appeal from an interviewer on the doorstep, it
may be more difficult to take this decision.

26.5 Budget and cost control

Preparation of a preliminary budget estimate is a priority activity that

should be planned and executed at an early stage. The budget will depend
on the survey design, including the levels of precision desired for various
estimates, as well as on the geographical and other classifications for pre­
sentation of results, and the operational conditions prevailing in the region.
The preliminary budget will have to be re-examined and revised as the
survey activities progress. This will inculcate cost consciousness into those
responsible for the survey and indicate the existence of any inefficiencies,
often acting as an impetus to devise economies and innovations.
As practices vary widely, there does not seem to be a standard way of
preparing survey budgets. The budget for the demographic sample surveys
in West Cameroon in 1965 is given as example in Table 26.1.
On the basis of this and other available survey budgets for African de­
mographic censuses and samples, the overall cost per person enumerated
around 1970 for the United Nations sponsored African Census Program
which consists of a simple head-count of the total population by sex and
geographical divisions and sample surveys (with about 100,000 sample per­
sons) for other demographic and associated items was estimated at U.S.
10 cents for the simple head-count and U.S. $3.50 for the sampling inquiry
covering all the items. These are, of course, notional estimates, prepared in
order to arrive at an overall figure for the program covering several coun­
tries: for the actual operation in any country, the budget is worked out
on the basis of local conditions; the mapping cost in particular would vary
widely in different countries.
Thus for an African country with an estimated 10 million persons, the
cost of the simple head-count could be estimated at U.S. $1 million, and of
the sample inquiry (with 100,000 sample persons) for all the demographic
and associated items at U.S. $350,000 per year in the mid-1970s.
462 Chapter 26

Table 26.1: Budget for demographic sample survey, West Cameroon, 1965:
Sample of 170,000 with single-round team-enumeration

Item Cost estimate

In CFA Francs
(’000)

Expatriate personnel

(a) Outside France

1 Survey Director for 14 months at

Fr.F. 4,800 per month 3,360
1 Field organizer for 10 months at
Fr.F. 3,200 per month 1,600
Social Security contributions 40% 1,984
Subsistence: 2 months at Fr.F. 60 per day
22 months at Fr.F. 30 per day 1,170

Total outside France 8,114

(b) In France

Preparation of mission:
1 Survey Director for 15 days at
Fr.F. 2,400 per month 60
1 Field Organizer for 15 days at
Fr.F. 1,600 per month 40
Social Security contributions 40% 40

Total in France 140

(c) Miscellaneous charges: 15% of {(a) + (b)J 1,238

Total Item 1 9,492

(continued)
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 463

Table 26.1 (continued)

Item Cost estimate

In CFA Francs
(’000)

2 Local Personnel

(a) Selection and training:

80 persons for a month at CFA.F.

12,500 per month 1,000

(b) Field work and data processing:

1 Assistant Field Organizer for 13 months

at CFA.F. 40,000 per month 520
48 Enumerators for 7 months at
CFA.F. 25,000 per month 8,400
12 Field Supervisors for 7 months at
CFA.F. 40,000 per month 3,360
59 months drivers at CFA.F. 25,000 per month 1,475
1 Messenger for 10 months at
CFA.F. 8,000 per month 80
1 Secretary/Accounts Clerk for 10 months
at CFA.F. 30,000 per month 300
15 Processing Clerks and Coders for 6 months
at CFA.F. 25,000 per month 2,250
Miscellaneous allowances 390

(a) + (b) ________ 17,775

(c) Miscellaneous charges 15% of {(a) 4- (b)} 2,666

Total Item 2 20,441

(continued)
464 Chapter 26

Table 26.1 (continued)

Item Cost estimate

In CFA Francs
(’000)

3 Equipment and local transport:

3 Vans (1,400 kg) 3,000

1 Small van 750
Running costs, maintenance, repairs,
insurance 5,250
Printing of questionnaire and data
processing forms 1,500
Office equipment and furniture 300
Camping equipment for Field Organizers and
Supervisors 250
Enumerators’ equipment 300
Bicycle allowance 270
Local transport costs 250
Rent of offices and accommodation 2,000

Total Item 3 13,870

4 Air transport: 3 RT Paris-Yaounde 459

5 Miscellaneous:

Mechanical data processing 2,500

Publication of provisional report 800

Total Item 5 3,300

6 Contingency: Approximately 5% of total 2,438

Grand total (approximately) 50,000

1 CFA Franc = French Franc 0.02 (or US $0.004 or UK Z0.0017), at the then
rates of exchange.
Source: U.N. Economic Commission for Africa (1971).
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 465

26.6 Project management

One important element of project management is the preparation of a pro­

visional calendar or timetable, indicating the sequence and estimated du­
rations of the various component operations of the survey. It is essential in
survey planning and execution; such a provisional calendar should be made
final as early as possible and kept constantly under review. In addition to a
detailed checklist of operations, the calendar may sometimes take the form
of a chart or graph.
Furthermore, it is important to keep track of the sequence of the dif­
ferent items of input, e.g. ordering of equipment, such as computers, site­
preparation, and the training of staff in their use, and to take needed mea­
sures to keep the project on track. All these call for installing project
management software programs, such as TimeLine DOS or WIN (by
Symantec Corporation), Project/WIN (by Microsoft Corporation), with
their built-in Gantt chart (named after its creator, the behavioral psychol­
ogist Dr. William Gantt), or PERT (Project Evaluation and Review
Technique) charting.

26.7 Administrative organization

The final responsibility for survey planning should rest with the executive
agency. The permanence of a survey organization, within the framework
of the statistical system of a country, has definite advantages in further­
ing the development of specialized and experienced personnel who could
undertake the continuing research needed for evolving increasingly efficient
survey designs, and also for improving the quality of survey data by assess­
ing and controlling non-sampling errors and biases. A permanent survey
organization can also undertake urgent ad hoc surveys at short notice.

26.8 Coordination with other inquiries

Needed cooperation may often have to be obtained from different bodies by

coordinating the survey with other compatible inquiries, using, for example,
the same sampling frame, and also trying to accommodate the needs of
other users, but without overloading the questionnaires.

26.9 Cartographic (mapping) work

In surveys using areal sampling units at some (or all) stages, the detailed
subdivision of the universe into identifiable areal units is one of the basic
important operations in a survey. Censuses of population, housing and
466 Chapter 26

agriculture are the most common source of such information. However,

maps have to be prepared for selected areas when these are not available
with the required details.

26.10 Tabulation programs

At the very early stages of survey planning, the tabulation program should
be drawn up so that the procedures and costs involved may be investigated
thoroughly and the questionnaire tested to indicate whether it is possible
to gather the required information.

26.11 Methods of data collection

Data may be collected:

1. by direct investigation comprising (a) physical observation which may
involve subjective methods (e.g. eye estimation of the areas under a
crop in sample fields) or objective methods (e.g. physical measure­
ments, such as the yield of a crop in the sample fields) or both, and
(b) personal interview;

2. by mail inquiry;
3. by telephone;

4. from registration;
5. from transcription of records.

The objectives of the survey, the nature of the items of information,

the operational feasibility and cost will often determine the method of data
collection. Mail inquiries are practicable in predominantly literate cultures
where respondent cooperation is ensured; the last three methods have lim­
ited applications in most developing countries.
Physical observations are required in inquiries involving measurements
such as crop yields, housing conditions, and anthropometric studies.
The method of personal interview is widely used in economic and social
surveys. Some items of information may be collected only through personal
interview, which has the added advantage that the concepts and definitions
can be explained to the respondents, thus reducing response errors and
non-response. Direct person-to-person investigation is, however, generally
more expensive than other methods.
In a household inquiry, after a sample household is contacted the re­
quired data may be obtained by interviewing one or more members (the
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 467

canvasser or enumeration method) or the questionnaire may be left

with the household for it to be filled by the members (the “householder
method”), and later collected by the enumerator.
Recent innovations in the use of computers in data collection include
Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI), Computer Assisted Tele­
phone Interview (CATI), and Computerized Self-administered Question­
naire (CSAQ): some of these techniques have been reviewed in the next
chapter.

26.12 Questionnaire preparation

26.12.1 Questionnaire design

The type of questionnaire, its content, format, and the exact wording and
arrangement of the questions determine to a great extent the quality of the
responses. Among the many factors which should be taken into considera­
tion in designing the questionnaire are the method of enumeration, the type
of inquiry, the data to be collected, the most suitable form of the questions
and their arrangement, and the processing techniques to be employed.
Although we have sometimes used the terms questionnaire and sched­
ule interchangeably, a distinction might be made between the two: a sched­
ule contains a list of items on which information is required but the exact
form of the questions to be asked is not standardized but left to the judg­
ment of the enumerators; a questionnaire contains a list of the actual ques­
tions that the enumerators would put to the respondents verbatim in a
specified order. The choice between the two would be generally determined
by the nature of respondent biases, the type of inquiry, the number of items,
the skill and training of the enumerators, and the costs involved.
In general, a questionnaire is more suitable for inquiries where the num­
ber of items, quantitative answers and cross-tabulations are not too many
and especially in surveys on opinions and attitudes. On the other hand,
a schedule is more compact and flexible: with a schedule a well-trained
enumerator is generally in a better position to frame questions to elicit the
required information and to meet the exigencies of the situation.
The framing of the questions and the exact wording should be embed­
ded in specific socio-cultural contexts. For example, in a number of African
countries, the term “married” includes those consensually living together;
“race” is another term subject to different interpretations. Effective com­
munication requires the process of meaning-making on the part of the in­
terviewee; in linguistics, this is known as “transderivational search” .
The U.S. Bureau of the Census has used focus groups to sharpen concepts
and definitions for use in population censuses (see section 24.13, “The use
468 Chapter 26

of focus groups”).

26.12.2 Details of the information to be collected

The statement of the desired information and the form in which final es­
timates are required would determine the details of the items of informa­
tion to be collected (see, in this connection, Appendix VI, section A6.2.4,
“Inter-country data comparability”). The problems naturally differ in dif­
ferent subject fields and it is not generally possible to give a formulation
which will apply equally in all situations. A few general observations may,
however, be made.
Some derived information may be obtained from the items of in­
formation collected during the survey. Examples are family composition,
including family nucleus, and the socio-economic status of persons. For ac­
curate reporting, some items may require separate recording of their com­
ponents or inclusion of supplementary and supporting items of information.
For example, data on the total number of children borne by a woman can­
not often be collected accurately, unless account is taken separately for
each marriage of a woman, of the children who were born alive but since
died and, of those living, both those living in the household (or family)
and those living separately: note in this connection the British experience
(section 25.3.2(iii)).
A common mistake in questionnaire design is to restrict oneself to the
topics or items on which final estimates are required (e.g. infant deaths),
and not to include their components (e.g. deaths to male and female in­
fants) or those which are required to elicit the desired information. The
inclusion of such auxiliary items at a marginal cost has two advantages:
first, such information acts as a check on that of the principal items (e.g.
computation separately of male and female infant deaths provides a check
of the overall infant mortality and of differential infant mortality between
male and female births); second, these may be standardized and not left
to the enumerators to formulate. Similar considerations apply to the total
number of children borne by a woman.
Some difficult or sensitive items such as income, savings, indebted­
ness, opinions and attitudes may better be put at the end of the schedule.
Some items of information require the inclusion of others in order to
ensure proper interpretation. For example, it is necessary to ask the actual
programs which the respondents listen to in a survey of preference of radio
listeners and the actual books and periodicals read in a survey of readership
preferences.
The framing and arrangements of the questions or items of information
should be done in such a manner as to facilitate accurate data collection and
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 469

tabulation. The schedule or the questionnaire should not be too lengthy or

tedious.

26.12.3 Time-reference period for data

The data collected should relate to a well-defined reference period. The

time-reference period need not be identical for all items of information.
With a fixed length, the reference period can be either fixed or moving;
the former is a period whose end-points are fixed, for example the week
10-16 January; the latter moves with the date of inquiry, such as the seven
days preceding it.
The choice of the length and type (fixed or moving) of the reference
period depends on the frequency of occurrence of the items, the manner
of accounting, the memory factor, and the type of survey. In an integrated
household inquiry, for example, the reference period could be a year for
infrequent purchases of durable goods such as furniture, and a week or
month for food consumption: those for household income and production
would depend on the receipt of incomes and production cycles, such as
agricultural seasons.
For most of the data in a demographic inquiry, the reference period will
be the enumeration day; for economic characteristics, it may be a brief pe­
riod prior to enumeration, preferably not longer than a week, but when this
short period is unrepresentative of seasonal changes in the level of activ­
ity and regular periodic sample surveys are not conducted, supplementary
information on “usual” economic characteristics over a longer period may
also be collected; for information on current fertility and mortality, the
reference period is generally taken as twelve months preceding the enumer­
ation, but for data on fertility history it should obviously cover the whole
reproductive span of the sample women.
In continuing surveys with common ultimate stage sample units (see
sections 24.3 and 26.13.1), the time-reference period for most items will be
the interval since the last survey.

26.13 Survey design

26.13.1 Types of surveys

The objectives of the survey will determine the choice of sample design and
the type of survey. The following types of surveys have been distinguished
by the Sub-Commission on Statistical Sampling of the United Nations Sta­
tistical Commission (U.N., 1947):
470 Chapter 26

(i) Integrated survey. In an integrated survey, data on several subjects

(or items, or topics) are collected for the same set of sampling units for
studying the relationship among items belonging to different subject
fields. Such surveys are of special importance in developing countries
where the related activities are frequently undertaken in an integrated
manner in the household.

(ii) Multi-subject survey. When in a single survey operation several sub­

jects, not necessarily very closely related, are simultaneously investi­
gated for the sake of economy and convenience, the investigation may
be called a multi-subject survey. The data on different subjects need
not necessarily be obtained for the same set of sampling units, or even
for the same type of units (e.g. households, fields, schools, etc.).

(iii) Continuing surveys. The most usual example of these surveys occurs
where a permanent sampling staff conducts a series of repetitive sur­
veys which frequently include questions on the same topics in order to
provide continuous series deemed of special importance to a country.
Questions on the continued topics can frequently be supplemented by
questions on other topics, depending upon the needs of the country.

(iv) Ad hoc survey. This is a survey without any plan for repetition.

(v) Multi-purpose survey. This term is sometimes used in connection with

sampling organizations which conduct surveys in various fields of in­
terest to several departments or parties, keeping in view their diverse
purposes. This permits economies in the technical and other resources
and their more effective use, particularly in developing countries.

(vi) Specialized or special-purpose survey. This may be defined as an in­

vestigation focusing on a single set of objectives which, because of
their nature or complexity, requires specialized knowledge or the use
of special equipment by a technical staff with training in the subject
field of enquiry.

Multi-subject integrated surveys are generally more economical than

a series of single-subject non-integrated surveys due to savings in over-
.head costs and in survey cost (travel to the penultimate-stage sample units
such as villages, enumeration districts etc., camp setting and listing and
contacting the ultimate-stage units). The economies become considerable
with a permanent survey organization, when multi-stage and multi-phase
sampling designs can be adopted. Further, grouping of different subjects
of inquiry in the same sample of first-stage units helps in increasing the
sample size at the first stage, which generally improves the efficiency of
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 471

the survey estimates. In many circumstances, therefore, the efficiency at­

tainable by separate single-subject surveys may be achieved by incurring a
much smaller expenditure in an'integrated multi-subject survey.
It will be noted again that only an integrated survey makes it possible
to study the inter-relations of different subject fields. Further, if integration
is carried out up to the penultimate-stage units (e.g. locality or a village),
infrastructure information such as the distance from the nearest school,
health and communication centers, and irrigation system and existence of
anti-malarial operations, etc., need be collected only once (often available
from routine administrative sources) and analyzed in respect of the relevant
items of inquiry.
Recent trends have therefore been toward adopting multi-subject inte­
grated surveys both in established survey organizations such as the U.S. Bu­
reau of the Census and the Indian National Sample Survey and in a number
of developing countries which have embarked on sampling inquiries. The
United Nations-sponsored National Household Capability Program also ad­
vocated collection of integrated data on the household and its members
through household surveys (see Appendix VI, section A6.3.4).
A multi-subject integrated survey is generally more suitable for house­
hold inquiries. It may be impractical or inefficient for combining inquiries
that require very different types of designs: there are also the problems
of overloading the informant, the training of enumerators and the data
processing facilities.
Often it is also found impractical or inefficient to collect some types
of agricultural statistics through household sample surveys. These relate
mainly to the time element involved in crop cutting (i.e. at the right time
for harvesting) and the difference between the so-called “biological yield”
(i.e. the yield without any loss) and the “economic yield” (i.e. the part of
the yield available to farmers for all uses). The important point here is that
to be realistic, yield surveys must be conducted under conditions of farm
practices, and this is not generally possible in a multi-subject integrated
inquiry (see also Zarkovich (1962)).
Some specialized inquiries cannot be fitted into schemes of an integrated
multi-subject survey. Thus, while generally accurate information on the
demographic and socio-economic aspects of morbidity such as sex, age,
days lost due to sickness, expenditure on medicines etc., could be collected
through an integrated household survey, a separate diagnostic survey with
a fully equipped team is required for clinical and laboratory examinations
to supply information on causes of sickness: this method is currently being
followed in the U.S. National Health Survey. Other examples are surveys
of industrial establishments, fisheries surveys, etc.
472 Chapter 26

26.13.2 Choice of sample design

Stratified multi-stage designs constitute the commonest type of designs used

in practice. They combine the advantages (including economies) of strat­
ification and clustering when the strata are made internally homogeneous
(but heterogeneous with respect to one another) and the first-stage units
internally homogeneous, so that a small number of first-stage units need
be selected from each stratum in order to provide an efficient sample (see
section 22.3). In practice, geographically compact strata make field enu­
meration easier.
Usually, the primary strata are compact geographical areas. Within
these, further stratification may be done on the basis of available supple­
mentary information on the universe. The ultimate strata may be smaller
homogeneous areas or groups of units having similar characteristics. Strati­
fication could also be used at second and subsequent stages in a multi-stage
design.
For a given total cost, multi-stage sampling will often give more effi­
cient estimates than unrestricted simple random sampling, because of the
usual economies of clustering and better sampling plans for the second and
subsequent stages. Also, the advantages of stratification are generally con­
siderable and will almost outweigh the slight increase in the complexity of
analysis. For a highly variable universe, the very large units may be put in
a separate stratum and completely enumerated: this is the general practice
in surveys of establishments.
Sample selection in each stratum should be according to the most ef­
ficient method applicable and need not be uniform in all strata. For the
stages for which samples can be drawn in the central offices, varying proba­
bility selection may be used, but for the ultimate and sometimes the penul­
timate stages, for which the samples have to be drawn by the field enumer­
ators, simpler methods are required such as simple random or systematic
selection.
The criteria of stratification and allocation of the sample size in the
different strata and stages have already been outlined in Chapters 12, 17
and 22. In multi-subject inquiries, these evidently have to be decided on
the basis of which variables are the most important: different sampling
fractions for the ultimate units could be called for (e.g. for demographic
vis-à-vis employment data), or different and appropriate samples of second-
stages units within the same primary units can be selected using different
criteria of size (e.g. selection of households may be based on expenditure
or income criteria, whereas those for agricultural holdings may be selected
on land criteria).
For computing estimates, available supplementary information may be
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 473

used to obtain ratio or regression estimates in order to improve the efficiency

of the estimators. The ratio and regression methods of estimation can be
used in different stages and also at different levels of aggregation, but it
may be desirable to have some idea of their efficiency and bias before they
are used on a wide scale. Furthermore, one would need to consider the
facilities available for processing when these methods are used, as they
involve greater computational work.
There are considerable advantages in adopting a self-weighting design,
mentioned in section 23.5, and the technique of interpenetrating subsamples
mentioned in sections 24.7 and 25.6.5.

26.13.3 Sampling frames

The frame for sampling consists of previously available descriptions of the

objects or material related to the physical field in the form of maps, lists,
directories, etc., from which sampling units may be constructed and a set
of sampling units selected. Generally a frame may consist either of area
units or of list units covering the items being investigated in a survey. A
frame becomes more valuable if it contains some supplementary informa­
tion which can be used to improve sampling and estimating procedures;
also, information on communications, transport, types of crops etc. may
be of value in improving the design for the choice of sampling units, in
programming the field work and in the formation of strata. The sampling
frame should be accurate, free from omissions and duplication, adequate
and up-to-date and the units should be identifiable without ambiguity.
Unless the sample survey is conducted simultaneously with a census
- of population, housing, agriculture, etc. - the initially available frame
will often require amendments for updating. And even when the sample
survey is conducted along with the census, the question of under- or over­
enumeration in the census would remain to be tackled.
The problems arise particularly in the latter stages of multi-stage sam­
pling, and often a frame may require to be constructed ab initio. Thus a
frame of higher-stage units, such as provinces, counties, towns and villages,
and enumeration areas, may be available from a census, but for the selection
of households, farms etc., a complete listing of such units in the selected
penultimate stages will have to be made. In addition to the requirement of
making the frame of ultimate units up-to-date and complete, such a listing
has the advantage that useful supplementary information may be collected
with little more effort, which can be used in stratification or estimation.
Supplementary information, whether available from the frame or ob­
tained during the listing of all the ultimate stage units in the selected
penultimate stages, may also be highly useful in improving the efficiency of
474 Chapter 26

estimates obtained from the survey, through suitable stratification, pps or

systematic selection, ratio method of estimation etc. In repeated surveys,
information collected in earlier surveys may also serve to improve the frame
for later surveys.
In some parts of Africa, villages are sometimes abandoned altogether
and the whole population shifts elsewhere, or a village might be split into
two or more parts which take on the names of the new chiefs: these make
difficult the updating of a frame in the absence of an adequate administra­
tive machinery.

Note: The following method of estimating the number of common units in two
lists is due to Deming and Glasser (1959):
Suppose there are two lists, one having M units and the other N units with
an unknown number D common to both. Samples of m and n units are selected
with srswor from the two lists, and d units are found to be common to the two
samples. Then an unbiased estimator of D is MNd/mn, and its unbiased variance
estimator is
(M N/ N/ mn) — 1] d

26.13.4 Survey periods

In countries where the economy is subject to pronounced seasonal fluctua­
tions within a year, socio-economic inquiries might preferably be conducted
for a year or multiples of a year with the work of data collection spread
evenly over the survey period. This would enable not only the study of the
seasonal elements but also a meaningful annual average. In a permanent
survey organization where the trained field personnel are small in number,
such a staggering of the survey is the only recourse.
In such cases, to minimize recall lapse and to represent all parts of the
year it is necessary to adopt moving rather than fixed reference periods;
for example, the reference period for the collection of information on some
items of household consumption could be the seven days preceding the date
of enumeration rather than a fixed calendar week.
In addition to the survey period considered above (such as one year, an
agricultural season etc.), the periodicity of surveys - annual, biennial etc.
- would also have to be considered.

26.14 Pilot inquiries and pre-tests

In undertaking a large-scale survey, particularly of unexplored material, it

should be the general rule to conduct pre-tests and pilot and exploratory
inquiries to test and improve field procedures and schedules and to train
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 475

field enumerators, and also to obtain information on the variability of the

data and on the cost-pattern which will enable the sample design to be
planned more efficiently and to finalize the tabulation program. For exam­
ple, the results of a pilot inquiry may be used to estimate the first- and
second-stage components of variance relevant to a two-stage sample design
which is envisaged for the main survey, and also the relevant components of
cost from which it is possible to determine the optimum intensity of sam­
pling at each of these two stages. Pilot inquiries also provide information
required to determine the most effective type and size of sampling units.
Pilot inquiries required to test different methods of data collection, types
of schedules and enumerators etc. may be organized in the form of inter­
penetrating networks of sub-samples that will enable valid comparisons to
be made of the factors under study.
The pilot inquiry, which can be considered a “dry run” for the survey
proper, may be preceded by a series of small pre-tests on isolated problems
of the design or enumeration procedures; the pre-test need not be based on
probability samples, and even 50 to 100 households or persons covered in
a pre-test could provide valuable information. One important component
of pre-test in household sampling should be the practice of house-listing
in some representative areas in order to train the enumerators so that the
coverage errors in the survey proper are minimized.

26.15 Selection and training of enumerators

The problem of selection of enumerators depends on whether the sample

survey is conducted on an ad hoc basis or is conducted over time as an
integrated process of data collection. For the first type, part-time staff, such
as teachers and housewives, can be used sometimes; but for the latter, full-
time enumerators often have to be selected and incentive provided so that
their performance is satisfactory and the turnover is not high. In countries
with different linguistic and ethnic groups, it is necessary to ensure that
the enumerators are accepted by the population being surveyed: female
enumerators may, for example, be employed to interview female respondents
in some surveys. The enumerators should have nearly equal workload, and
each should cover a manageable geographical area.
It is often necessary to decide whether to employ locally based staff
confined to a few sampling units, or mobile or itinerant staff covering a
wider area. The choice between the two types of staff would again depend
mainly on the type of survey being undertaken.
In a small-scale survey, enumerators can be trained in the central office.
But in a large-scale survey, this may not be practicable and the training will
be organized in two phases: first the supervisors will be trained by the tech­
476 Chapter 26

nical staff, and, second, the supervisors in turn will go to their field offices
and train the enumerators under them. It would be beneficial to organize
refresher courses for both the supervisors and the enumerators, not only
for the field procedures but also on the objectives and methodology of the
survey. The training method would normally comprise classroom teaching,
provision of manuals, demonstration enumeration, field work under supervi­
sion, scrutiny of filled-in schedules, and oral and written tests. The manual
for the enumerators may contain the following topics: the survey objec­
tives and program; preliminary work in the sample areas; how and whom
to interview; detailed instructions on the questions, including concepts, def­
initions and examples; checking completed questionnaires; preparation of
summary results; and return of documents and equipment.

26.16 Supervision

Accurate field work can only result from thorough training of efficient enu­
merators. Nevertheless, adequate supervision must be an integral part of
the field work.
The ratio of supervisors to enumerators is 1:6 in the U.S. Current Pop­
ulation Survey and 1:4 in the Indian National Sample Survey; in the 1969
National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure in Japan it was 1:4. A
supervisor should undertake some field work, either independently or as a
check on the work of the enumerators, and this information can be used to
adjust the data collected by the enumerators.
It is preferable to have a copy of the filled-in forms made before they are
passed to the central offices for tabulation and analysis. The enumerators
should themselves carry out simple numerical calculations and consistency
checks of the data. When a copy of the enumerators’ filled-in schedules is
retained in the supervisor’s office, a percentage of both the original and the
copy should be scrutinized for copying and other mistakes; and, whenever
possible, gross mistakes should be referred back to.
Any correction made by the supervisor on the enumerators’ schedules
should not be done by erasing the enumerator’s entry but should be made
in such a way that both can be used for future checks and analysis.
The enumerators should also be required to keep records of the times
spent on the different aspects of the field work such as journey, identification
and contact of sampling units, listing, enumeration, etc., which may be
useful for designing subsequent inquiries.
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 477

26.17 Processing of data

After the completion of the enumeration, the schedules should be checked as

carefully as possible and those entries which are not in the form of numerical
quantities should be converted into numerical form; e.g. the sexes recorded
as “male” and “female” may be converted to 1 and 2 respectively. The first
of these steps is called editing and the second, coding.
While a precoded questionnaire can speed up a survey very greatly, it
has several disadvantages, the major being the lack of checks. It is generally
desirable to have the coding done in the central office.
The filled-in forms should be scrutinized by the technical staff for con­
sistency and, as far as possible, for accuracy before they are sent on for
processing. In a large-scale survey, this can be done on a sub-sample basis
separately for each enumerator: if the percentage of inconsistent and inac­
curate entries exceeds a certain limit for an enumerator, all the schedules
filled in by him should be checked. Forms containing too many mistakes or
doubtful entries may have to be rejected.
The importance of preparing a tabulation plan well in advance has been
mentioned in section 26.10.
Tabulations can be manual, mechanical, or electronic. The data can be
processed into final tabulations either by analyzing direct from the schedules
or by transferring the data to cards or tapes for mechanical or electronic
processing. In small-scale sample inquiries, the main required estimates
can often be obtained manually from the forms and the cross-tabulations
made through mechanical or electronic processing. In large-scale inquiries
too, estimates that are required quickly can often be obtained from the
summaries which the enumerators may be asked to prepare; for example,
for the Indian National Sample Survey on population, births and deaths
in 1958-9 (with 1.2 million persons in the sample), estimates of birth and
death rates were prepared (from the village summary tables done by the
enumerators) within a fortnight of the receipt of schedules: further esti­
mates for cross-tabulations and also the computations of standard errors
were made later through electronic processing.
Such preliminary results of the main items of a survey often serve im­
portant purposes. If the survey is arranged in the form of interpenetrating
sub-samples, advance estimates can be obtained on earlier processing of one
or more of the sub-samples (section 24.7.1).
During processing, it is advantageous to make provisions for obtaining
estimates for the first-stage sample units. From a listing of these, both
the final estimates and their standard errors can be computed in relation
to totals and ratios: for the computation of standard errors in each stra­
tum, two or more first-stage units should be selected with replacement,
478 Chapter 26

or the sampling fraction should be small when they are selected without
replacement.
Checks should be introduced at every stage of processing. For data
entry, for example, some dummy entries might be made which would ensure
the checking of the punching and the verification work.
The computations required for a large-scale survey are made on a dif­
ferent basis from those illustrated in this book. For each ultimate sample
unit, the multiplier or the weighting factor is computed and the product
of the multiplier and the value of the study variable for the sample unit is
obtained. When these are summed up for all the sample units by the ma­
chine, the required estimate is obtained and a suitable procedure is adopted
for obtaining its standard error.
Suppose in a household inquiry (as in Example 21.1), the sample is
stratified two-stage, with villages, the first-stage units, selected with pps
and with replacement, and households, the second-stage units, selected at
random or systematically. For estimating a stratum total, the multiplier of
each household is given by
(Reciprocal of the probability of selection of the sample village)
(Number of sample villages in the stratum)
(Total number of households in the sample village)
(Number of sample households in the sample village)
This multiplier will be computed for each sample household. To es­
timate the total consumption of food in a stratum, for example, the food
consumption in a sample household will be multiplied by its multiplier, and
the sum of the products for each stratum would give the estimated total
food consumption in it. These stratum estimates when summed up for all
the strata will provide an unbiased estimate of the total food consump­
tion in the universe. When the ultimate units in the sample penultimate
units are selected with equal probability (as in this example), the multi­
plier will be the same for the sample ultimate units in a particular selected
penultimate unit.
Of course, in a self-weighting design, for estimating the totals the multi­
plier will be applied only once at the overall level, and it will not be required
for estimating the ratio of two totals and its variance estimator.
The advent of electronic computers in recent years has been in many
ways a great help in obtaining the required estimates speedily and accu­
rately: for a sample survey, standard errors of a host of estimates can be
computed with their aid. These can also be programmed to tasks of edit­
ing with consequent improvement of consistency of the primary data and
possibly of its accuracy. They make possible some forms of estimation on
a scale which would have been impractical with manual and mechanical
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 479

tabulations. For example, in some cases the use of the regression method
of estimation on previous surveys of a series with overlapping samples can
substantially improve the efficiency of the estimators. The use of com­
puters makes possible changes in the allocation of resources between the
collection of data and processing. Computers can also be used in analy­
sis and studies for interrelations of various factors by multivariate analysis
(United Nations, 1964b), for example. “Off-the-shelf’ software packages
and programs, such as the Integrated Microcomputer Processing Systems
(IMPS) of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, are now available for use in per­
sonal computers for obtaining not only estimates of totals, means, ratios,
etc. of study variables but also their standard errors (more fully discussed
in the next chapter, “The Use of Computers in Survey Sampling”).
However, an efficient use of computers would be predicated upon the
availability of trained programmers, especially the local staff, continuous
service facilities, and intensive utilization of computer time.
A record of time, kept on the different processing operations, would help
to improve future operations.

26.18 Preparation of reports

In addition to the presentation of the numerical results, the report of a

survey, either complete enumeration or a sample, should contain some dis­
cussion and interpretation of the results.
For the preparation of the report of a sample survey, the United Nations
Sub-Commission on Statistical Sampling has made certain recommenda­
tions (1964a); these are summarized below.

26.18.1 General Report

The General Report should contain a general description of the survey for
the use of those who are primarily interested in the final results and broad
findings rather than in the technical and statistical aspects of the sample
design, execution, and analysis. The general description should include
information on the following points:
1. Statement of the purposes of the survey;
2. description of the scope and coverage;
3. items of information and method of data collection;
4. date and duration - the survey and time-reference periods;
5. repetition - whether the survey is an isolated one or is one of a series
of similar surveys;
480 Chapter 26

6. numerical results;

7. main findings;

8. accuracy - a general indication of the accuracy achieved, distinguish­

ing between sampling errors and non-sampling errors;

9. costs - an indication of the cost of the survey, under such headings as

preliminary work, enumeration, analysis etc.;

10. assessment - the extent to which the purposes of the survey were
fulfilled;

11. responsibility - the names of the organizations sponsoring and con­

ducting the survey;

12. references - references to any available reports or papers relating to

the survey.

26.18.2 Technical report

Technical reports should be prepared for surveys of particular importance
and those using new techniques and procedures of special interest. In ad­
dition to covering such fundamental points as the purposes of the survey,
stipulated margins of error, conditions to be fulfilled and resources available
for the survey, the report should deal in detail with technical and statistical
aspects of the sampling design, execution and analysis; the operations and
other special aspects should also be fully covered. These aspects may be
considered under the following headings:

1. Design of the survey. The sample design should be described in detail,

sampling frames (their specification, accuracy, and adequateness), in­
cluding types of sampling units, sampling fractions, particulars of
stratification, sampling procedures for different stages, etc.

2. Personnel and equipment. It is desirable to give an account of the or­

ganization of the personnel employed in planning, collecting, and pro­
cessing and tabulating the primary data, together with information
regarding their previous training and experience. Arrangements for
recruitment, training, inspection and supervision of the staff should
be explained, as also should methods of checking the accuracy of the
primary data at the point of collection. A brief mention of the equip­
ment used is frequently of value to readers of the report.
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 481

3. Statistical analysis and computational procedure. The statistical meth­

ods followed in the estimation and in compilation of the final summary
tables from the primary data should be described, the relevant formu­
lae being reproduced where necessary. If any elaborate processes of
estimation have been used, the methods followed should be explained
with reasons.
4. Reliability and accuracy of the survey. The difference between relia­
bility and accuracy has been explained in Section 25.4.5. This present
heading should include:
(a) Reliability (or efficiency) as indicated by the standard errors
deducible from the survey;
(b) degree of agreement observed by the independent enumerators
covering the same material when interpenetrating samples are
used;
(c) study of accuracy of the data and estimates.
In addition, methods adopted for evaluating the accuracy of the esti­
mates and the method of controlling and adjusting for non-sampling
errors and biases should be described.
5. Technical analysis and interpretation of survey results. These would
be of value to answer some questions or to test some hypotheses;
in a demographic inquiry, for example, the fertility and mortality
levels and trends can be measured and the socio-economic differentials
tested.
6. Comparisons with other sources of information. Every reasonable
effort should be made to compare the survey results with other in­
dependent sources of information. The object of this is not to throw
light on the sampling error, since a well-designed survey provides ad­
equate internal estimates of such errors, but rather to gain knowledge
of biases and other non-random errors.
Disagreement between results of a sample survey and other indepen­
dent sources may, of course, sometimes be due, in whole or in part,
to differences in coverage, concepts and definitions or to errors in the
information from other sources.
7. Costing analysis. The sampling method can often supply the required
information with greater speed and at lower cost than a complete
enumeration. For this reason, information on the costs involved in
sample surveys is of particular value for the development of sample
surveys within a country and is also of help to other countries.
482 Chapter 26

Fairly detailed information should be given on costs of sample surveys

under such headings as planning (showing separately the cost of pilot
studies), travel, enumeration proper, supervision, processing, analysis
and overhead costs. In addition, labor costs in person-weeks of differ­
ent grades of staff, and also the time required for different operations,
are worth providing, for these may suggest methods of economizing
in the planning of future surveys. However, the preparation of an ef­
ficient design involves a knowledge of the various components of costs
as well as of the components of variance. The concept of cost in this
respect should be regarded broadly in the sense of economic cost and
should therefore take account of indirect costs which may not have
been charged administratively to the survey.
8. Efficiency. The results of a survey often provides information which
enables investigations to be made on the efficiency of the sample de­
signs, in relation to other sample designs which might have been used
in the survey. The results of any such investigations should be re­
ported. To be fully relevant, the relative costs of the different sam­
pling plans must be taken into account when assessing the relative
efficiency of different designs and intensities of sampling. A study of
the stage-variances, in a multi-stage design, would help in designing
future surveys more efficiently.
9. Observations of technicians. The critical observations of technicians
(in statistics and the specific subject fields) in regard to the survey, or
any part of it, should be given. These observations will help improve
future operations.
Further reading
Good introductions to the planning, execution and analysis of surveys are given
by Casely and Lury (1981) relating to developing countries and by Salant and
Dillman (1994) relating to the U.S. Other references include Foreman, Chapters
12-15; Levy and Lemeshaw, Chapters 15 and 16; Mahalanobis (1946a); Murthy
(1967), Chapter 14; Murthy and Roy; United Nations, Recommendations for the
Preparation of Sample Survey Reports (1964a); Yates, Chapters 3-5, and section
7.26.
On survey research in general, see Fienberg and Tanur (1983), Fowler (1988),
and Sudman and Bradburn (1982).
In addition to the references given under “Further reading” in Chapter 1, the
following are some references in specific subject fields:
Agricultural surveys: Monroe and Finkner; FAO (1969); Panse (1966); Royer;
Sanderson; Sukhatme and Sukhatme (1969); Zarkovich (1963, 1965a, 1965b).
Demographic surveys: Blanc; España; Som et al.\ United Nations (1971b);
U.S. Bureau of the Census (1963b).
Planning, Execution and Analysis of Surveys 483

Fertility and family planning surveys: Population Council; Acsadi, Klinger,

and Szabady (1969).
Forest inventory: Schreuder, Gregoire, and Wood (1993).
Health surveys: see the references under “Further reading” in Appendix V.
Household and social surveys: United Nations (1964b).
Sexuality surveys: Bullough; Hite (1979 and 1981); Janus and Janus (1993);
Kinsey et al. (1948) and (1953); Masters and Johnson; Laumann et al.;
Michael et al.; Tavris and Sadd (the Redbook study).
For some methods of utilizing imperfect frames, see the papers by Hansen,
Hurwitz, and Jabin (1964), and Szameitat and Schaffer (1964) and the discussion
at the meeting on “Sampling from Imperfect Frames” at the 34th session of the
International Statistical Institute, 1963 (Proceedings, 1964).
For examples of good technical reports, see the publications on the World
Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Surveys (further details on
these two survey programs are given in Appendix VI, “Multi-country Survey
Programs.”)

Exercise

1. Prepare a critique of the sampling aspects of U.S. surveys on human sexu­

ality.
(Hints: Consult the studies on human sexuality listed under Further reading
above and the definitive statistical critique of Kinsey reports by Cochran,
Mosteller, and Tukey (1953). Note that all these studies, excepting the one
conducted through the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research
Center (NORC), reported by Laumann et al. and Michael et al., were based
on non-probability samples. Consider the implications of self-selection in
such non-probability samples. Note that in the NORC survey, 6 per cent
of the interviews were made in the presence of a spouse or a sex partner
and that an additional 15 per cent were done in front of the respondent’s
children. The researchers of the NORC study have stated that this had a
significant effect on responses: “When interviewed alone, 17 per cent re­
ported having two or more sex partners in the past years, while only 5 per
cent said so when their partners were present during the interview.” - cited
by John K. Wilson, in Letter to the Editor, New York Times, November
1, 1994; see also M.G. Lord’s article, “What That Survey Didn’t Say,” in
the New York Times, Op-Ed page, October 25, 1994. The homeless and
persons in institutions, e.g. in prisons, were not included in the NORC
study. Consider the possible effects of such exclusion on the estimation of
HIV/AIDS infection. See Section 24.19, “Estimation of HIV/AIDS infec­
tion” in this book and the review by Robinson of the NORC study and by
Lewontin of Bullough’s and NORC studies.)
CHAPTER 27

The Use of Personal Computers

in Survey Sampling

27.1 Introduction

Computers have now become an indispensable tool for processing all types
of data in public and private sector activities, such as censuses and surveys,
financial transactions, telephone listing, payroll preparation, educational
testing, and space programs.
In a typical census, there is a fairly large amount of data input, but the
data structure and statistical tabulations are relatively simple, comprising
first-level tabulations and second- and third-level cross-tabulations; in con­
trast, sample surveys require far less data input (5 per cent or less than
that of a corresponding census), but the statistical operations, such as the
estimation of universe totals and their variances, are complex.
Many countries with populations up to 10 million (such as Honduras
with 5.1 million and Niger with 7.7 million around 1990) have been in­
creasingly using powerful Personal Computers (PCs), with shared (local or
remote) area network systems to process their entire census data (Toro and
Chamberlain, 1989). For example, of the 25 African countries that had un­
dertaken the processing of their 1985-91 population censuses, 16 had used
only microcomputers, 9 only minicomputers and 3 a combination of both
(Dekker, 1991).
And, almost invariably, sample survey data are now being processed
on PCs. For example, the data of 48 Demographic and Health Surveys,
conducted in different countries of the world during 1985 through 1992,
were all processed on PCs, using an integrated software package especially
developed for these surveys and the first sets of tabulations were completed
within a fortnight of the receipt of data (see Appendix VI, section A6.3.3,
and Croft, 1992).

485
486 Chapter 27

PCs are replacing mainframes (and minicomputers) in census and survey

data processing in most countries on consideration of capacity, access, and
cost; there has been, simultaneously, nothing short of an explosion of PC­
based software packages for office and personal (including recreational) use
that has further expanded the appeal of PCs. While PCs do not have
the capacity and speed of mainframes, they are improving very fast. PCs
are geared toward individual users and software packages are more “user-
friendly” and easier to learn than mainframe packages; thus, more people
can be trained with less effort - an important consideration in developing
countries where training and resources are limited.
In most countries, access to mainframes or minicomputers is easier for a
population census than for a sample survey. As a national endeavor, a popu­
lation census rightfully gets a high priority for its processing, in mainframes
or mini, that, in many developing countries, are located in government of­
fices or government-sponsored corporations, doing routine chores such as
the preparation of government payrolls and electricity bills. Processing of
data of surveys, even when conducted by government departments, may
not get a high priority there. On the other hand, PCs are, by their very
nature, individualized machines doing only what the user tells them to,
but doing it immediately. This control over computing can speed up the
processing time considerably. And until recently census and survey data
processing could be started only after ad hoc computer programs for data
editing and tabulation had been prepared; but now a variety of software
programs and packages are available for personal computers, more than for
mainframes and minicomputers, so that “off-the-shelf’ software packages
can be easily used without much knowledge of computer programming. The
delays, if any, now in data processing are due to problems of management,
work organization, and training (Gerland, 1992). And, finally, the number
of staff members and the level of training required to operate and maintain
computers and updating of software packages are much less for a PC than
for a mainframe. The decreasing cost of PCs and their increasing process­
ing power often become the clinching argument for their recommended use
in census and survey data processing, particularly in developing countries
(U.N., 1990c, Chap. VI).
In this chapter, we shall first consider a number of general issues in us­
ing PCs for data processing and then briefly describe the use of computers
in sample surveys, starting from sample selection and proceeding through
data collection, data editing and imputation, data entry, data tabulation,
computation of sampling variance, data analysis, digital mapping, and pub­
lishing; we shall mention only those software packages that are widely in
use. We shall also mention some new computer technologies that are being
evolved in developed countries such as Australia, Canada, the Netherlands,
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 487

Sweden, the U.K., and the U.S.

27.2 General issues

The general trend in the developed world has been toward an increasing
use of PCs and, for the field, powerful portables, with facilities for wireless
or telephone communication. Perhaps countries in the third world could go
directly to using PCs (desktops) in the office with a Local Area Network
(LAN) and portables in the field without going through the Mainframe —*
Minicomputer —> Desktop 4- Portable route. Given resources and access
to electricity for recharging batteries, computer-assisted personal interview
could be adopted in these countries right now.
There is no escaping the computer revolution. Like Alice in Through
the Looking Glass, if you just run, you will remain in the same place: to
advance, you must run faster.
It has been argued that the experiences of developed countries may not
be appropriate to the developing countries for several reasons: significant
differences in the computerization and introduction of microcomputers; the
need for the developing countries to have stand-alone PCs, as compared to
linking micros to existing mainframe systems; and PC use in developing
countries not having immediate relevance to developed country PC appli­
cations, such as in finance and law enforcement in the government sector
in the U.S.
For the developing countries, there are two important lessons. First, in
developing computers and their software packages, initial emphasis should
fall on computer engineering and program development. Later on, emphasis
should shift to end-users, both present and potential. Otherwise, computers
will continue to be considered esoteric. The time-frame of the history of
computers from the first electronic computing machine, the ENIAC (the
Electronic Numeric Integrator and Computer) in the mid-1940s and
the early mainframes (that needed highly skilled mathematicians to be
programmers) to the current crop of PCs that are being used by almost
everybody (most of whom are not programmers) has to be telescoped in
the developing countries. Second, experiences of the developed countries
will have to be internalized in the developing countries.
The speed and effectiveness of the transfer of microcomputer technology,
or for that matter of any technology, depend on the receptivity of the
population - receptivity that is embedded in the social and cultural milieu.
In cultures where hands-on machine use is still considered infra dig., the
PCs provided could become mere status symbols and office adornments.
The provision of equipment does not guarantee its use, as some potential
users could continue to be passive toward the technology (Sanwal, 1988).
488 Chapter 27

27.3 Sample selection

For selecting the sample, sampling frames are required. Such frames are
normally available at the central sample survey office, at least up to the
first few stages (in a multi-stage survey) in the form of a data base, from
which a computer program can be written for selecting the (first few stages’)
sample units. For example, a master sample may contain information on
small areal units (either census blocks or census enumeration areas) in the
form of a data base. If in a demographic survey, all the extant households
in the selected small areal units are to be enumerated, then these units
become the ultimate-stage sample units, that is, no further sampling need
be done in the field. Households and individuals then become observation
or recording units. If, however, a sample of households is to be selected
from the selected small areal units, sampling at the ultimate stage must be
carried out by the enumerators in the field.
For selecting the sample, the sampling frames are usually put in a data
base format, such as dBase III or IV, Fox Pro or Paradox, and the sample
drawn following the sample design.

27.4 Data collection

Until recently, the required information in sample surveys had to be col­

lected by personal interview, and in a few cases by mail or telephone in­
terview. Computer-assisted data collection, through personal or telephone
interview, makes it possible to combine data collection, data editing and
data entry; thus, soon after enumeration, the fully edited data become
available in machine-readable form and then easily transferred to the cen­
tral computers for further processing (see section 27.6).

27.5 Data editing and data entry

The availability of computer power right at the point where data are en­
tered now makes real-time error checking possible. The data entry software
packages can be programmed to refuse to accept an entry or to flash a warn­
ing should the operator try to register a wrong code or if variables appear
to be inconsistent with each other; also, fields that are known to remain
unchanged from one record to the next may be duplicated automatically
(U.N. ESCAP, 1988).
Among the data processing operations of a census or a survey, data
entry is the most constricting bottleneck such that for a population census
it can take a year and often more. Data entry software packages have been
designed to relieve this constriction.
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 489

Two data entry software packages that are in most common use in cen­
suses and surveys in developing countries are CENTRY, developed by the
U.S. Bureau of the Census, and PC-EDIT, developed by the U.N.; both
include editing, verification, data modification, and statistics on operator
performance. CONCOR, a software package also developed by the U.S.
Census Bureau for data scrutiny and editing, can be run during data entry
with CENTRY.

Computer-assisted Data Entry and Editing (CADE) Program.

CADE, also called CADI (for computer-assisted data input), is an inter­
active system for data entry and data editing of data collected in PAPI
(pencil-and-paper interview; see the next section). It checks for consistency
being done by a subject-matter specialist either by consulting the forms or
calling the supplier of the information. This allows a dynamic checking
of errors that is absent in CAPI and CATI (Computer assisted telephone
interview; see the next section) (Bethlehem and Hundepool, 1992).

Computer Assisted Coding (CAC). Coding of responses in censuses

and surveys, an important part of data processing but very error-prone, can
be computerized in two ways: (1) though automated coding, codes are
assigned automatically by the computer, based on a file with verbal de­
scriptions and a coding program but without any user interference; and
(2) computer-assisted coding, the verbal description is presented on the
screen and additional facilities are available to assist the coder to establish
the correct codes (Bethlehem, Hofman and Schuerhoff, 1989). The expe­
rience of computer-assisted coding has been studied in the Netherlands,
Canada, France, Switzerland, and Sweden, among others, and in general
they have shown the superiority of CAC over both manual (clerical) coding
and automated coding (Dekker, 1991). In Latin America, Argentina and
Brazil are the only two countries that had developed computer software
packages to assist in automatic coding of the census data (Ellis, 1991).
In the 1990 U.S. Census, with over 20 million persons providing in­
dustry and occupation descriptions, the Bureau of the Census applied a
combination of automated and computer-assisted (clerical) coding (Scopp
and Tornell, 1991).
Application of computer-assisted coding requires the development of
necessary indexes according to some strict syntax rules. One version of the
CAC system of the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations uses
a simple matching algorithm.
Reference should also be made to automated matching with good ad­
ministrative records being used at census offices in a number of developed
countries such as Canada (vide the Fellegi-Sunter algorithm in Fellegi
and Sunter, 1969), the Netherlands, Sweden, and the U.S.
490 Chapter 27

In adopting computer-assisted coding in data processing, consultation

with subject-matter specialists should be maintained because in case of
substantive issues regarding coding, the coders would not generally be able
to decide the issues.

Image Capture Technique. Optical mark readers (OMRs) have

been used in many censuses and surveys for data capture. However, the
OMR technique cannot be used to capture written responses, such as on in­
dustry and occupation; these can be captured using the optical character
recognition (OCR) technique for image capture, including the handwrit­
ing recognition technique. In Latin American countries, OMR is the second
preference for data capture (used in 6 countries) after micros (16 countries),
with manual data entry used in 3 countries; the major limitation for using
OMRs in Latin America is that the forms have to meet a certain quality
and often have to be printed outside the countries, adding to the cost (Ellis,
1991).

27.6 Combined data collection, editing and entry

Computer-based new technologies have emerged to combine data collec­

tion, data editing and data entry. They include computer-assisted personal
interview (CAPI) and computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI).

Computer-Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI). The traditional

interview using pen and paper (pen-and-paper interview, PAPI) is re­
placed by computer programs containing the questionnaires, the sequence of
questions to be asked, and the responses checked against the given alterna­
tives. In CAPI, the computer program is loaded into a portable computer,
which is taken to the field, and the answers by the respondents entered into
the portable.

Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI). Here too, the

traditional PAPI is replaced by computer programs containing the question­
naires, the sequence of questions to be asked, and the responses checked
against the given alternatives. In CATI, the interviewer calls the respon­
dents from a central unit, carries out the interview by telephone and enters
the data in the computer program in a desktop computer.
These methods eliminate printing, transporting, office editing, and key­
punching questionnaires at the central office.
Studies made at the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Department
of Labor and in other developed countries have indicated that CAPI can
give better quality data than PAPI (Baker and Bradburn, 1992; Bradburn,
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 491

Frankel, et al., 1992; Olsen, 1992; Speizer and Dougherty, 1991). CAPI
has thus become a common feature in many surveys in countries such as
the U.S. [for example, to collect supplementary data, in the U.S. National
Health Interview Survey (Rice et al., 1989) and in a survey to assess nu­
tritional needs of the population (Rotschild and Wilson, 1989)] in Canada,
the Netherlands (in the labor force survey, van Bastelaar et al., 1988), Swe­
den, the U.K. and Australia. CATI is being used, among others, in the
U.S. National Crime Victimization Survey and has been adopted by lit­
erally hundreds of survey organizations as the preferred method of data
collection (Lyberg and Kasprzyk, 1991).
An experiment was conducted in Guatemala for the Demographic and
Health Survey there (see Appendix VI, section A6.3.3) by interviewing 300
women once by PAPI and then by CAPI that showed a saving of about 25
per cent in interviewing time in CAPI. (Cantor and Rojas, 1992).

27.7 Data tabulation

There are three major data tabulation software packages in use in many
developing countries - CENTS and QUICKTAB, developed by the U.S.
Bureau of the Census, and XTable, developed by the U.N. Statistical Divi­
sion.

27.7.1 CENTS

CENTS has been used successfully in many censuses, surveys and other ac­
tivities requiring the production of statistical tables. It can produce tables
in virtually any format. The user “draws” the tables, then writes instruc­
tions on the relationship between the data and table cells. Once tables are
defined, they can be produced automatically for up to five geographical
levels. CENTS is available for PCs only.

27.7.2 QUICKTAB
QUICKTAB is a menu-driven tabulation package for frequency distribu­
tions and cross-tabulations. It produces cross-tabulations of up to three
dimensions and processes at a speed of 80,000 records per minute on an
average PC.
Tables produced by QUICKTAB are in a pre-specified format. That is,
QUICKTAB, unlike CENTS, does not allow for the flexibility of “drawing”
tables in any format. QUICKTAB is simple to use and can be learned in a
few minutes.
492 Chapter 27

27.7.3 XTable
XTable is an easy-to-use package that produces frequencies and summary
tabulations of censuses, surveys, vital and civil registration records, popu­
lation statistical databases, or any other administrative data.

27.8 Variance estimation

Currently available commercial statistical software packages programs and

packages do not allow the computation of estimates and their variances from
complex survey designs with several stages and strata and with varying
probabilities of selection. The software package, Integrated System of
Survey Analysis (ISSA), developed at the DHS (see section A6.3.3), is a
powerful tool but it produces estimates and variances of DHS-type surveys
only (see section 27.10.3 below). The software package SUDA AN (for
SUrvey DAta ANalysis), developed at the Research Triangle Institute
(1989), requires the linearization of the estimates.
The variation calculation system, CENVAR, developed at the U.S.
Census Bureau, is the only software package that is adaptable to complex
sample survey designs to estimate universe parameters and their sampling
variances (see section 27.10.1) by following the methods described in this
book.

27.9 Data dissemination

With the census data and tables being put in databases, data dissemination,
particularly between government agencies, has been facilitated by putting
the databases on-line. In Japan, the Statistical Bureau and the Statis­
tics Center are jointly operating a statistical database called SISMAC
(Statistical Information System of Management and Coordinat­
ing Agency; Ide and Kawasaki, 1991). In Latin America, on-line access to
census data by external users is not widespread except in Brazil; for the re­
gion as a whole, micro data of the population censuses will be disseminated
using magnetic tapes and CD-ROM diskettes (Ellis, 1991).

27.10 Integrated systems of data processing

Under integrated systems, we shall classify those software packages that are
designed for the specific purpose of covering all, or the major, data pro­
cessing requirements of a survey to avoid the interfaces between separate
packages that can do only part of the job. Integrated systems are espe­
cially useful for relatively unskilled users working on PCs. We shall review
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 493

integrated systems of data processing, using PCs, developed by the U.S.

Census Bureau, by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, and by
the Institute for Research Development. We shall also mention two other
not fully integrated systems developed by the World Health Organization,
the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and by the U.N.

27.10.1 IMPS (Integrated Microcomputer Processing System)

The most comprehensive integrated system of survey data processing to
date is the Integrated Microcomputer Processing System (IMPS),
developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. It allows persons with little
or no computer experience to contribute to the data processing operation.
It has been constructed from packages, some of which have been mentioned
earlier, which perform the following processing tasks: data entry, editing,
tabulation, operational control, and statistical analysis.
IMPS is available for use with PCs and has been used or is planned to
be used in 75 countries for processing their population and housing censuses
and in 43 counties for processing their surveys on agriculture, farm incomes;
economic statistics - income and expenditure; education and literacy; de­
mography and vital statistics; household statistics; labor force; and Social
Dimensions of Adjustment, sponsored by the World Bank (see Appendix
VI, section A6.3.6).
The mainframe version of IMPS is not yet available, so mainframe users
will have to continue to use separate modules of the programs available to
them.
The following are the modules of IMPS version 3.1, issued in December
1993:
Data Entry. CENTRY (CENsus enTRY) is a screen-oriented, menu-
driven package for developing data entry applications (see section 27.5).
Editing. CONCOR (CONsistency and CORrection) is a package for
rapid identification and correction of invalid and inconsistent data using
available and appropriate editing techniques. CONCOR can be used inde­
pendently or together with CENTRY (see section 27.5).
Tabulation. QUICKTAB (QUICK TABulation) is a menu-driven pack­
age for the rapid production of frequency distributions and cross-tabulations.
CENTS (CENsus Tabulation System) is a package for tabulating, summa­
rizing, and displaying statistical tables for publication (see Sections 27.7.1
and 27.7.2).
Table Retrieval System. While a census tabulation plan generates a
large number of tables, only a relatively small proportion of them is pub­
lished. To make the unpublished mass of data accessible to staff both in the
494 Chapter 27

census offices and outside (e.g. businesses, press, universities, and research
institutions), such that data users (even those with no previous computer
experience) could examine all tables and accompanying text stored in a
computer readable format - whether published or unpublished - Carlos Ellis
of the U.N. Statistical Division developed a menu-driven software package
that makes it easy to select, retrieve, display and print statistical tables
from either the CENTS tabulation component of IMPS or from text files.
The Bureau of the Census elaborated the TRS system to form an integral
part of IMPS.
Operational Control. CENTRACK (CENsus TRACKing) is a man­
agement and control package to help census managers monitor, control, and
track the various operations necessary between receipt of questionnaires
from the field and data entry.
Variance Calculation. CENVAR (Variance Calculation System) is
a statistical package for analyzing data from stratified, multi-stage sam­
ple surveys. It provides estimates of totals, means, ratios, etc., and also
estimates of their sampling variances. Sub-population estimates can be
obtained by specifying classification variables, which can be crossed with
each other. In addition, CENVAR output presents for each estimate the
coefficient of variation, the number of observations and the “design effect.”
For demographic analysis, the Center for International Research of the
U.S. Bureau of the Census has developed a software package called “Pop­
ulation Analysis Spreadsheets” for analyzing demographic data and
preparing projections. The accompanying manual, “Population Analysis
Using Microcomputers,” presents many useful and accepted methods of
demographic analysis.
IMPS and its modules are available free of charge to eligible, non­
commercial users; these can also be downloaded from the Internet. For in­
formation, contact International Systems Team-CASIC, U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233-3102, U.S.A.;
phone: 301-457-1453; fax: 301-457-3033; Telex: 62761615; Internet:
[email protected].

27.10.2 Integrated statistical information processing on microproces­

sors (the Netherlands)
The Central Bureau of Statistics of the Netherlands has developed a system
to make data processing more efficient with production of better quality
information by using computer technology. It is based on the principles of
standardization of hardware and software packages and integration of the
software packages required in the various processing steps: the basis of the
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 495

integrated environment is the Blaise system, a system designed to describe

a survey questionnaire in a formal language, the Blaise (named after the
French theologian and mathematician Blaise Pascal, 1623-1662), which in
turn is partly based upon the programming language Pascal (named also
after Blaise Pascal).
Questionnaire specification, collection of information (through CAPI,
CATI, and PAPI), and data input are parts of the BLAISE system. Weight­
ing is done through Bascula, a general weighting program run on PCs in the
DOS platform, tabulation through the Abacus tabulation package, which is
menu-driven and interactive, and can read files created by the Blaise system
and also ASCII files; statistical analysis through commercial software pack­
ages SPSS and Stata, after the data file is converted from the Blaise format
to ASCII; and finally publication through CBSview, a publication package
developed by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (Bethlehem and
Hundepool, 1992).

27.10.3 ISSA (Integrated System of Survey Analysis)

The Integrated System of Survey Analysis (ISSA) was developed to meet
the data processing requirements of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
(see Appendix VI, Section A6.3.3). It is an integrated and interactive sys­
tem that can handle complex surveys and data files, consistent with estab­
lished procedures and compatible with other systems. Its modules can run
“stand alone” or a part of an integrated system. The system comprises a
designer, a data entry processor, a batch processor and a number of util­
ity modules. Within the ISSA system, there are two basic entities: a data
dictionary, describing the structure and contents of a data file; and an appli­
cation, which instructs the system how the data are processed. It provides
estimates of universe totals and their variances and includes two random
group estimators: Jackknife (see section 24.9.2) and Balanced Repeated
Replications.
ISSA can be applied to process data from surveys of the DHS type.
Additional information can be obtained from Macro International/DHS,
11785 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300, Calverton, MD 20705, U.S.A.; phone:
301-572-0200; fax: 301-572-0999.

27.10.4 Epi Info and Epi Map

Epi Info and Epi Map constitute an integrated program of data correction,
tabulation and thematic mapping.
Epi Info (now in version 5) is a series of microcomputer programs for
handling epidemiological data in questionnaire format and also for orga­
nizing study designs and results into text that may form part of written
496 Chapter 27

reports. A questionnaire can be set up and processed in a few minutes,

but Epi Info can also form the basis of a powerful disease surveillance data
base with may files and record types. It includes the features most used
by epidemiologists in statistical programs such as SAS or SPSS and data
base programs like dBase, combined in a single system that may be freely
copied and distributed.
Epi Info is available in English, Spanish, and Arabic from USD Inc.,
2075A West Park Place, Stone Mountain, Georgia 30087; phone: 404-469-
4098; fax: 404-469-0681. The French language Epi Info is distributed by
Editions ENSP, Ecole Nationale de la Santé Publique, Avenue du Pro­
fesseur Léon Bernard, 35043 Rennes Cedex, France. Chinese, Portugese,
Italian, and Czech language versions are being prepared, and an Indonesian
language version is planned.
Epi Map has been described briefly in section 27.14.2 under “Geograph­
ical Information Systems.”

27.10.5 U.N. suite of software packages for data processing

PC-EDIT (see section 27.5) and XTable (see Section 27.7.3), combined
with PopMap (see section 27.14.1), developed by the U.N., form a suite of
software packages for data editing, data entry, and geographic information
services. These are provided free of charge to UNFPA-supported projects,
government agencies and academic institutions. By mid-1991, such software
packages were delivered in 464 projects or institutions in 126 countries.
For further information, contact Project Coordinator, Computer Soft­
ware and Support for Population Activities Project, Statistical Division,
U.N., Room DC2-1570, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.; phone: 212-963-
4118; fax: 212-963-4116.

27.11 Computer-Assisted Survey Information System (CASIC)

The new technology of Computer-assisted Survey Information System that

is now in place, but still evolving, in the U.S., Canada, the Netherlands,
the U.K., Sweden, Australia, New Zealand and in other developed countries
relates to the use of computers both for data collection and data entry
through Computer-Assisted Survey Information Collection (CASIC).
The CASIC integrated system includes the following (Creighton et al.
(1994)):
Data Collection and Capture:

Computer-assisted personal interview (CAPI)

Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI)
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 497

Computerized self-administered questionnaire (CSAQ)

Touch-tone data entry and voice recognition entry (TDE/VRE)
Standardized technologies assisted mail processing (STAMP)
Electronic data interchange (EDI)
Computer-assisted data entry (CADE)
Imaging
Paperless fax image reporting system (PFIRS)
Data Processing:

Automated coding
Interactive corrections
Batch editing
Imputation
Weighting
Tabulation

M anagement:
Survey/census design
Authoring
Payroll
Management information system

Some of the processes are still being evolved and many of them will not
be applicable to most developed countries at their present level of technol­
ogy and infrastructure. CAPI, CATI and CADE - three components of
CASIC - have been dealt with earlier in section 27.6. Among the newer
technologies that are emerging, automated voice recognition, paperless fax
image reporting, optical character recognition, and touch-tone data entry,
are briefly described below.
Automated voice recognition. A study is underway for possible
use in the year 2000 census project with the goal of designing and testing
the feasibility of a spoken language system, over the telephone, which will
interact with a caller to elicit specific information about the caller (Cole
and Novick, 1993).
Paperless fax image reporting system and optical character
recognition. In the paperless fax image reporting system (PFIRS), using
optical character recognition (OCR), being evaluated currently at the U.S.
Census Bureau for possible use in its data collection and processing, the
process is: respondents fax questionnaires to the Bureau —* the Census
Bureau fax-server receives digital image (not paper copy) and the system
automatically identifies the questionnaire —+ OCR software converts survey
498 Chapter 27

responses to machine-readable codes (unrecognized data are displayed on

the computer screen for manual keying) —>• the interpreted data are stored
directly into a data base (Rowe, Petkunas, Appel, and Cable, 1994).
Touch-tone data entry. Touch-tone data entry (TDE) is an auto­
mated data capture technology that allows a respondent, using the keypad
of a touch-tone telephone, to reply to computer-generated prompts: the
TDE system functions as an interviewer. TDE has been in use for some
time in commercial applications outside the survey field, e.g., in banking
by telephone, rental car reservations, and college class registration (Lyberg
and Kasprzyk, 1991). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has been using
TDE since 1986 (Ponikowski, Copeland and Meily, 1989), many firms in
the United States are using it for a variety of applications and the Census
Bureau itself currently uses TDE for a number of surveys and automated
call routing (Appel, 1992).
The Current Employment Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics, reports a high positive respondent acceptance of TDE due
to its speed and convenience for the respondents. Also TDE offers many
advantages to the survey agencies, including the reduction or elimination
of costs of interviewing, mail-out, mail-back, check-in, data keying, and
CATI (Werking and Clayton, 1991); the limitations of TDE are that it
requires respondents to have touch-tone phones and that it is self-initiated
by the respondents, the same problem as for mail collection. For an initial
technical assessment of TDE, see Appel (1992).
Automated voice recognition, paperless fax image reporting system, and
touch-tone data entry are three different forms of computer-assisted self­
interview (CASI) in which the respondent answers questions without the
benefit of an interviewer (U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 1990; also
Lyberg and Kasprzyk, 1991).
Prepared data entry. A third example of computer-assisted self­
interview is prepared data entry (PDE) that allows respondents with com­
patible microcomputers or terminals to access and complete a questionnaire
on their computers by entering data in response to preprogrammed floppy
disks and then mail it either via a carrier (such as the postal service) or
electronically. This technique has been applied, among others, by the U.S.
Internal Revenue Service for tax payers to submit tax returns electronically
and at the U.S. Energy Information Administration for collecting monthly
refinery data from petroleum companies (U.S. Office of Management and
Budget, 1990, cited by Lyberg and Kasprzyk, 1991). A variant of PDE,
called “tele-interview”, has been reported by Saris (1989; also cited by Ly­
berg and Kasprzyk, 1991) where each sample respondent is provided with
a computer and a modem; with the help of these and a television and tele­
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 499

phone (that are present in almost every household in the United States),
an interview is conducted from the central computer to the home computer
of the respondent; the respondent answers all the questions on the personal
computer and sends the results back to the central computer.
Although not formally a part of the CASIS system, an interesting de­
velopment for reducing costs and for obtaining better quality of data is the
use of an interactive multimedia kiosk.
Interactive multimedia kiosk. Among the variety of technologies as­
sessed by the U.S. Census Bureau in 1993 having the potential of reducing
both costs and differential under-count in the Year 2000 Census is the pro­
totype interactive multimedia kiosk that offers a menu, in both English and
Spanish, to reach the public with the Census’ message, answer questions,
vend information products, and collect questionnaire data. This technol­
ogy, housed in a publicly convenient kiosk (or through in-home access via a
computer and modem), is deployed or being considered in many U.S. fed­
eral agencies, such as the U.S. Postal Service, the Internal Revenue Service,
the Veterans Administration, and the Social Security Administration.

27.12 Statistical analysis

For statistical analysis - for example for fitting regression and studying
correlation - commercially available software programs and packages, such
as BMDP, SAS, SPSS (SPSS/PC + for PCs), and SYSTAT, may be
used.

27.13 Spreadsheets and graphics

The census and survey tables can be stored in tables created with a spread­
sheet software package. Recent versions of the commercially available
spreadsheet software packages such as Excel, Lotus 1-2-3 and Quattro Pro
include considerable graphic facilities for preparing charts and graphs -
bar diagrams, pie charts, and graphs depicting, e.g., the fertility levels in
different socioeconomic strata of population - mostly without recourse to
graphic software package.

27.14 Geographical information systems

A recent innovative use of PCs is the digital mapping of census and

other data at different geographical levels. Several geographical information
systems (GIS) have been produced for this purpose. In the U.S., software
packages for digital mapping and geographic analysis include Atlas GIS,
500 Chapter 27

Mapinfo (Mapinfo Corporation), and InfoShare for the city of New York
(by the Queens College of the City University of New York).
Atlas GIS (for Windows) can access data from dBase, ASCII, Lotus
1-2-3, Microsoft Excel, and industry-specific marketing information files,
from single U.S. city blocks up through the entire world on diskettes or
CD-ROM, street maps of the entire U.S. (based on TIGER, see later in
this section), Atlas demographic data from the 1990 Census, projected to
1998, business and consumer data from exclusive and syndicated sources,
and a library of available marketing information and competitive business
locations and data. Atlas GIS is produced by Strategic Mapping Corporate
Headquarters, 3135 Kifer Road, Santa Clara, California 95051; phone: 408-
970-9800; fax: 408-970-9999.
Mapinfo for Windows, version 3.0 includes satellite raster image
support to see natural terrain on-screen and chart new roads or other details
on old maps; remotely imported data can be displayed in thematic maps
or charts in a broad range of colors.
GIS is being used in a rapidly growing number of disciplines. In an­
thropology, economics, history, sociology, and environmental and urban
planning, for example, GIS is providing new insights into geographically-
linked data and enabling the spatial display, analysis, manipulation and
querrying of data at increasing levels of detail; in other applications, three-
dimensional conceptual maps, such as response- or cost-surface, are being
created with GIS.
A National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis
has been established by the U.S. National Science Foundation to carry out
fundamental research into GIS technology and issues central to its effective
use. It has covered topics such as utility management in urban areas and
earthquake modeling and data keeping.
Censuses of population, agriculture, industrial establishments and oth­
ers provide a veritable “demographic treasure-trove” for preparing digital
mapping for use in war and peace. In the 1991 Gulf War, GIS systems
of the American Defense Department helped guide soldiers and missiles to
targets (Dataquest, 1991).
The U.S. Census Bureau sells computerized city-block maps of America
for around $10,000. For the first time, the 1990 census maps are gen­
erated from a computerized data base, the TIGER (Topographically
Integrated Geographic Encoding and Reference System).
GIS systems, combining information from censuses and other govern­
mental information, have great potential for developing countries in their
national development planning. A thematic mapping software package al­
lows the production, at specified geographical levels, of thematic maps, e.g.,
maps showing demographic levels, such as population density, fertility and
The Use of Personal Computers in Survey Sampling 501

mortality and the available infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals, and

family planning clinics.
However, sample survey results, by their very nature, may not be com­
pletely amenable for reproduction in a GIS.
Two major thematic mapping software packages are PopMap and Epi
Map.

27.14.1 PopMap
PopMap is an integrated software package, developed by the U.N. Statis­
tical Division in collaboration with the Institute of Computer Science in
Viet Nam, which offers graphics and mapping capabilities with a spread­
sheet for collecting, storing, tabulating and mapping information. This
software package was prepared to support planning and administration of
population activities with important geographical or logistic context or to
facilitate geographic or graphic expression of population indicators or re­
lated data. The system comes with data base modules for declaring the
structure and content of the geographical and statistical data base, a map
editor for entering map outlines, boundaries, borders, rivers, routes and
individual facility locations, and a system for selective retrieval of statisti­
cal and facilities data, preparing maps, graphs and spreadsheet tables for
on-line study and analysis, and for printing and publication.
For further information, contact Project Coordinator, Computer Soft­
ware and Support for Population Activities Project, Statistical Division,
U.N., Room DC2-1570, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.; phone: 212-963-
4118; fax: 212-963-4116.

27.14.2 Epi Map

Epi Map was jointly developed by the Division of Surveillance and Epi­
demiologic Studies, Epidemiology Program Office, U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and the Global Programme on AIDS of the World Health Organi­
zation. It is a microcomputer program for producing thematic maps from
geographic boundary files and data values entered from the keyboard or
supplied in Epi Info or dBASE files. The data may be counts, rates or
other numeric values. Epi Map also produces cartograms, in which the
value for each geographic entity is allowed to control the size of the entity;
thus, a state or county will be small on the map, but large if the number
is large. Base maps may be maps with text and symbols for titles and leg­
ends. They may consist of the outlines of a geographical area or they may
contain sub-regions or enumeration units; for example, a base map may
be a continent by country, a country by provinces, or a country by health
district.
502 Chapter 27

27.15 Desktop publishing

Special purpose software packages, such as Aldus Page Maker, have ex­
panded microcomputer use to the business of publishing: they make it
possible to produce, right on the PCs, camera-ready reports for the photo
offset process, thus bypassing the regular production process. Many re­
ports, studies, and books are now being produced, at reduced costs and
more speedily, using desktop publishing. This has been of particular bene­
fit to developing countries, where census and survey reports may languish
for years waiting their turn at the government printing offices.
Some word processing software packages, such as WordPerfect ver­
sion 6.0 and Word for Windows, integrate page layout capabilities with
word processing, and are capable of producing all but the most design­
intensive projects (Lichty, 1994; Parker, 1994a and 1994b).

27.16 Concluding remarks

No software package should be used without a full understanding of the un­

derlying assumptions of methods involved. This is particularly true of the
application of software packages for analysis, whether for estimating uni­
verse totals and their variances or cross-tabulations and regression analysis
to discern interactions and the so-called proximate determinants of study
variables. The adage “garbage in, garbage out” (GIGO) remains true.

Further reading
In a rapidly evolving field such as that of microcomputers, any list of references
runs the risk of being out of date soon: that caveat should be sounded in con­
sulting studies prepared before the late 1980s.
For a review of statistical software programs and packages for processing
censuses and surveys, see U.N. ESCAP (1988). On the use of PCs in processing
census data, see Toro and Chamberlain (1988) and U.N. (1989 and 1990c) and on
the use of computers in processing household survey data, see U.N. (1982a). For
GIS, see Arbis and Coli (1991), and Maguire, Goodchild, and Rhind (1991); on
other topics, see the references cited in the text. For the role of microcomputers
in national development, particularly in India, see Sanwal (1988) and Som (1993).
APPENDIX I

List of Notations and Symbols

1. For summation and product notations, see section 1.15.

2. In general, the following subscripts are used:

h for stratum, h = 1,2,..., L\
i for a first-stage unit, i = 1,2,..., N for the universe, and i =
1.2.. .., n for the sample;
j for a second-stage unit, j = 1,2,..., Mi for the universe, and
j = 1,2,..., rrii for the sample;
k for a third-stage unit, k = 1,2,..., Qij for the universe, and k =
1.2.. .. ,qij for the sample.

3. y denotes a study variable (also an unbiased estimator of the total Y

of the study variable for the universe);
x denotes another study variable-, and
z an ancillary variable either for selection with probability propor­
tional to size or for ratio or regression estimation.

4. The following symbols are used with additional subscripts, as required:

Universe Sample
parameter estimator
Total of y Y Vo (or y)
Mean of y (per first-stage unit) Y yo/N
Proportion P P
Ratio R r
Sampling variance of estimator t st
Standard error of t St
Covariance of t and u stu
Correlation coefficient P P
Intraclass correlation coefficient Pc Pc
Regression coefficient 0 fi

503
504 Appendix I

5. Other notations and symbols

ea enumeration unit
f sampling fraction (with subscripts added for strata
and stages)
fsu first-stage sample unit
pps sampling probability proportional to size sampling
ppswr pps sampling with replacement
srs simple random sample or simple random sampling
srswor srs without replacement
srswr srs with replacement
ssu second-stage unit
tsu third-stage unit
is equal to
is not equal to
is approximately equal to
< is less than or equal to
> is greater than or equal to
oc is proportional to
oo infinity
SSyi sum of squares of deviations of yx from the mean y
(see section 1.15)
SPyiXi sum of products of deviations of yi and xt from their
respective means (see section 1.15).
6. Greek letters used
a (alpha) probability point of the t or the normal
distribution
/3 (beta) regression coefficient
7T (pi, small) probability of selection
fj (pi, capital) product notation
p (rho) correlation coefficient
a (sigma, small) universe standard deviation
S (sigma, capital) summation notation
APPENDIX II

Elements of Probability and

Proofs of Some Theorems in Sampling

A2.1 Introduction

In this appendix we present first the elements of probability and then the
theorems themselves required for proving some theorems in sampling.

A2.2 Elements of probability

A2.2.1 Definition of probability

We consider the classical definition of probability.
A number of events are considered equally likely if no one of them can
be expected to occur in preference to the others. Suppose there are t
total possible outcomes of an experiment conducted under a given set of
conditions, and that they are exhaustive (i.e. one of them must necessarily
occur), mutually exclusive (i.e. no two of them can occur simultaneously),
and equally likely. Let / of these t outcomes represent an event A (i.e. f
are favorable to the occurrence of A), so that A happens when one of the
f favorable outcomes happens and conversely.
Then the (mathematical) probability of A is

P(A) = f/t (A2.1)

As f < t,

0 < PW < 1 (A2.2)

P(A) — 0 means that the event A is impossible, and P(A) = 1 means

that the event A is certain to occur.

505
506 Appendix II

Example

A six-faced die is thrown. What is the probability that (a) the number 4 turns
up? (b) an even number turns up?
The six possible cases are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and these are exhaustive and
mutually exclusive; they may also be considered equally likely if the die is perfect
in shape and homogeneous, and is thrown such that no one face gets any particular
preference over others. That is, 1 = 6.
For (a), there is only one favorable case, namely, the figure 4, so that the
probability of 4 turning up is f/t = and this holds for each of the other
figures.
For (b), the number of favorable cases is f = 3 (namely, the even numbers
2, 4, and 6), and therefore the probability that an even number will turn up is

A2.2.2 Theorems of total probability

Let Ai, A2, ■ ■ ■, An denote n events which may happen as a result of an
experiment performed under a given set of conditions. Then Ai + A? +
• ■ • 4- An = £2" Ai will denote the occurrence of at least one of these n
events. And Ai A2 . ■ ■ An = A, will denote the simultaneous occurrence
of all these n events.

(a) Mutually exclusive events. If Ai, A2, ■ ■ ■, An are n mutually exclusive

events, then the probability that at least one of these n events will occur is
n
P(A, + ■ ■ ■ + A„) = P(A,) + ■■■ + P(A„) = £ W (A2.3)

If in addition the events are exhaustive, i.e. at least one of the events must
occur, then
n
P(A,+ • + Л.) = £/’(Л,) = 1 (A2.4)

If the non-occurrence of the event A is denoted by A, then A and A

being exhaustive and mutually exclusive, i.e., P(A) + P(A) = 1, so that

P(A) = 1 - P(A) (A2.5)

For example, the probability of the figure 4 not turning up in a throw

of a perfect die is P(A) = 1 — P(A) = |, where A denotes the turning up
of the figure 4.

(b) Events not mutually exclusive. If the n events Ai, A2, ■ ■., An are
not necessarily mutually exclusive, then
Elements of Probability and Proofs 507

■P(Xi + A2 + • • • + -A«)
n

» i,j i,j,k
i<j i<j<k
- (-1)" P(AM2...An) (A2.6)

A2.2.3 Theorems of compound probability

The conditional probability that A2 will occur when it is known that Ai
has occurred is denoted by P(A2|Ai).
If Ai, ^2,. ■ ■ ,An are n events that may result from an experiment, then
the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of all these n events is
P(AiA2...An) = P(Ai)P(A2\A1)P(A3\AiA2)...
...P(An\AiA2...An_i) (A2.7)
provided that each of the factors on the right-hand side is non-zero.
When each one of n events Ai,A2,...,An is independent of the others,
the events are said to be mutually independent, and in this case
n
P(-4M2 ... A„) = P(A,)P(A2)... P(A„) = P(Ai) (A2.8)
i.e. the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of the n events is the
product of their unconditional probabilities.
For example, when two perfect dice are tossed, the probability of 4 being
thrown up by both is, since the throws are independent, | x |

A2.2.4 Mathematical expectation

(a) Definition. A variable that may take any of the values of a specified
set with a specific relative probability for the different units is called a
random variable or a stochastic variable. For example, with a perfect die
the number occurring in its tossing is a random variable which takes the
values 1, 2,..., 6 each with the same associated probability of
Let a random variable Yi take the values Yi, Y2,... ,Y^ with respective
probabilities pi,p2,... ,pn, the setYi,Y2,... ,Y^ containing all the possible
values of Y,. These values need not all be different, but they are assumed
to arise from an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive events Pi = 1) •
The mathematical expectation of Yi is defined as
N
E(Yi) = YiPi+ Y2p2 + • • • + YNpN = YiPi (A2.9)
508 Appendix II

where the summation is taken over all these possible values of Yi.
For example, the mathematical expectation of the number being thrown
up by the tossing of a perfect die is

lx — + 2 x — 4- • • • 4- 6 x — = 3.5
6 6 6

(b) Some properties of expected values

(i) The expected value of a constant is the constant itself. For, if Yi =

y2 = ■ • ■ = Y/v = a, and the probability is p,-, then the expected value
of Yi = a is, from equation (A2.9),

N N
E(Y) = = a^Pi = a (A2.10)

since 52jVpI = 1, as the events are exhaustive.

(ii) E(aYi) = a ■ E(Yi) (A2.ll)

(iii) E(a + Y;) = a + E(yj) (A2.12)

(iv) The mathematical expectation of the sum of a number of random

variables is the sum of their expectations.

E(Xi +Yi + Zi + ■■■) = E(Xi) 4- E(Yi) + E(Zi) + • • • (A2.13)

(v) A number of random variables is said to be independent if the prob­

ability of any one of them to take a given value does not depend on
the values taken by the other variables. Thus two variables X, and Yj
which take respective values XitX2, ■ ■ •, X^ and Y^ Y2,. .., Yyv will
be called independent if

P(Xi = X; Yj = Yj) = P(Xi = Xi)P(Yj = yj

for all i and j.

(vi) The mathematical expectation of the product of a number of inde­

pendent random variables is the product of their expectations.
If Xi,Yi, Zi,... are the independent random variables, then

E(XiYiZi...) = E(Xi)E(Yi)E(Zi)... (A2.14)

Elements of Probability and Proofs 509

A2.2.5 Variance and covariance

(a) Definition of variance. The variance of a random variable Y{ is
defined as
V(Y,) = E(Yi-EYi)2 (A2.15)

= ¿(Y-EY)2p.
= E(Y?) - (EYi)1 (A2.16)
from the definition of expected values, given in equation (A2.9), EYi de­
noting for brevity E(Yi); Y\,Yz,... ,Yn are all the possible values of Yi and
Pi>P2> ■ • • >Ptv are the probabilities associated with these possible values.

(b) Some properties of the variance. The variance of a constant is zero,

i.e.
V(a) = 0 (A2.17)
Also
Y(aYj) = a2V(Yi) (A2.18)
and
V(a + YJ = V(Yi) (A2.19)
(c) Covariance. The covariance between two random variables Xi and
Y{ is defined as
Cov(Xi,Yi) = E[(Xi - EXi)(Yj - EYj)] (A2.20)
= 0 if Xi and Yj are independent (A2.21)
(d) Variance of a linear combination of random variables. By definition,
VlXi + Yj) = E[(JG + Y,) — E(Xj + Yj)]2
= E[(Xi-EXi) + (Yj-EYj)]2
= E(Xi - EXi)1 + E(Yj - EYj)1
+2E[(X. - EXi)(Yj - EY,)]
= V(Xi) + V(Yj) + 2Cov(Xi,Yj) (A2.22)
This result can be generalized to the case of several random variables.
Thus for three variables Xi, Yi, Zi,
V(Xi+Yi + Zi) = V(Xi) + V(Zi) + V{Zi) + 2Cov(Xi,Yi)
+2 Cov(X{, Z^ + 2 Cov(y;-, Zi) (A2.23)
510 Appendix II

When the variables are independent, the covariance terms are zero and
V(Xi + Yi + Zi + ■•■) = + V(Yi) + V(Z,) + ■ • • (A2.24)
Corollary
V^Xi-Yj) = V(Xi) + V(y>)-2Cov(Xi,y>) (A2.25)
= V(Xi) + V(Yj)
when Xi and Yj are independent (A2.26)

A2.3 Proofs of some theorems in sampling

A2.3.1 Number of possible simple random samples

(a) There are NCn or
(N\ _ №
\n/ nl(N — n)!
ways of selecting n units of a total of N units without replacement and
disregarding the order of selection of the n units, where n! = 1 x 2x •••xn
is the product of the first n natural numbers and is known as factorial n.
By convention 0! = 1.
Thus if N = 6, n = 2, then in sampling without replacement and
disregarding the order, the number of possible samples is (see section 2.4.1)

(b) There are Nn ways of selecting n units out of a total of N units

with replacement and considering the order of selection.
Thus if N = 6, n = 2, then the number of such possible samples is
62 = 36 (see section 2.5.1).

A2.3.2 Expectation and sampling variance of the sample mean

A simple random sample of size n is drawn from the universe of size N. Let
Yi (i = 1,2,... , N) be the value of the variable for the ¿th universe unit.
The universe mean is by definition
_ 1 1 N
Y = -(Y1+Yi+-+YN} = -'£Yi (A227)
«■=1

and the universe variance per unit

Elements of Probability and Proofs 511

Let us denote by yi (i = 1,2,..., n) the value of the variable for the ith
sample unit (i.e. the unit selected at the ¿th draw). The sample mean is,
by definition,
1 1 Xn A
y = - (?/i + V2 + • • • + yn) = - (A2.29)
n n
We shall obtain the expectation and variance of the sample mean sep­
arately for sampling with and without replacement.

(a) Sampling with replacement. To prove:

E(ÿ) = Y (A2.30)

Var(j/) = a^= — (A2.31)

* n
Proof.

from section A2.2.4.

Now in sampling with replacement, as the successive draws are indepen­
dent and the universe remains the same throughout the sampling process,
yi (i = 1,2,..., n) can assume any one of the values Yi, Y^, ■.., Yjv with the
same probability 1/N, so that

Hence

For the second equation, by definition the variance of y is

Var(j/) = of
2

E
j.
n
1 2

E ¿JM - EyÔ
n2
n
J_ £ E(Vi - Eytf + 4 È E(K - Eyi)E(yj - Eyj)
n2
i=l
2 . 7.
n
_1_
Var(j/i) + ^2 52 Cov^‘ ’ ) (A2.32)
n2
512 Appendix II

Now

Var(ÿi) = Efy,-Ÿ)2
= ¿(y'-7)2pte = y')

= - V)2 = o-2 (A2.33)

Cov(j/t-, yj ) = E(yt - Y)(yj - Y)

= ¿(y< - = Yi'-Vi = Y’> <A2-34)
»J

In sampling with replacement y, and yj are independent, i.e. j/t can

take any of the values Yi, Y2,..., Yv irrespective of the value yj takes, so
that

P(yi = Yi-,Vi = y}) = P(Vi = y)P(% = yp = 1 • 1 = ±

Thus

Cov(W1!0) = ^¿(y-yx^-ÿ)
»■J
= 772£(y-y)£(y>-y) = ° (A2.35)

» j

for each i,j (2 / j), since ^>N(Yi — Y) = ^,N(Yj — Y) = 0, being the sum
of the deviations from the mean.
From equation (A2.32), using equations (A2.33) and (A2.35), we obtain

—1 na - a
= —
n2 n
Note: A shorter proof would be as follows.

since the j/,’s are independent (from equation A2.24). Using equation (A2.33)
the final result is obtained.
Elements of Probability and Proofs 513

(b) Sampling without replacement. To prove:

Y (A2.36)

2 _ cr2 N — n
Var (y)
y n N—1
S2
-a-/)
n
(A2.37)

where

S2 jv_i£«-
1 r>2
J^a
N-1
2 (A2.38)

and f = n/N is the sampling fraction.

Proof. As before

In sampling without replacement also, can take any one of the values
Yi, Y2, • • • >Yn with the same probability 1/N (see note 1 below). Therefore
£(») = Ÿ.
To prove (A2.37), we proceed up to (A2.34) as for srs with replacement.
In srs without replacement, however,
P(^ = Y- yj = Yj)
= P(yi = y^yj = Yj I yi = Yi)
1 1
if i ± j
N ' N—l
since yj can take any value excepting Y (the value which is already known
to have been assumed by j/,-) with probability 1/(A — 1). So

n N
1

1 - Y) ¿(y, - Ÿ) - £(y - Y)2

N(N- 1) i j i
514 Appendix II

= - Nÿhr) É(y- - Y)2 “£«-Y) = 0

a2
= - —----- by definition (A2.39)

As there are n(n — 1) covariance terms in (j/,-, yj) for i / j,

' n(n-l)<r2
¿^Cov(?/t-,^)=------

From equations (A2.32), (A2.33), and (A2.39),

no-2 n(n — 1) 2 _ 0-2 A n— 1 \

n2 n2(7V — 1) a n\ N — 1J
cr2 N — n S2
~n N - 1 (1-/)
n
Notes
1. In srs with replacement, the probability that the ith universe unit is selected
on any draw is clearly 1/N, since the units are returned after selection so
that the universe remains the same throughout the sampling process.
In srs without replacement, the probability that a specific universe unit is
selected on the first draw is 1/7V. The probability that it is selected on
the second draw is given by the probability that it is not selected in the
first draw multiplied by the conditional probability that it is selected on
the second draw, i.e.
N -1 1 1
N ’ N-1 ~ N
Similarly, the probability that it is selected on the third draw is
N-1 N-2 1 1
N ' N-1 ’ N-2 ~ N
and so on. Hence the result.
2. A specific universe unit may be included in the sample of n units at any of
the n draws; the events that the unit is included in the first draw, second
draw, ..., nth draw are also mutually exclusive. Therefore the probability
that the specific unit is included in the sample is, from section A2.2.2(a),
the sum of the probabilities of these n mutually exclusive events, i.e. n/N,
since each of the n mutually exclusive events has the same probability 1 /N.
3. In section 2.3, a simple random sample of n units out of the universe of N
units has been defined as the process in which each combination of n units
(numbering NCn in sampling without replacement and Nn in sampling
with replacement) has the same chance of selection as every other combi­
nation: a characteristic of simple random sampling is that the probability
Elements of Probability and Proofs 515

that a universe unit will be selected at any given draw is the same as that
on the first draw, namely 1/N (see note 1). The above proofs have been de­
rived from this characteristic and the theorems on probability. Alternative
proofs which are derived from the definition of simple random sampling, if
required, will be found in the advanced theoretical textbooks.

Corollaries
N
(A2.40)

in srs with and without replacement.

Var(Wj/) = № (A2.41)
n
with srs with replacement.

N-n
Var(Æÿ) = N2 — (A2.42)
n N-1
in srs without replacement.

Proof. Equation (A2.40) follows from equations (A2.30) and (A2.36) on

multiplying both sides by N.
Equations (A2.41) and (A2.42) follow from (A2.31) and (A2.37) on mul­
tiplying both sides by №.

A2.3.3 Unbiased estimator of universe variance

Defining the per unit variance of a sample as

(A2.43)

to prove that

E(s2) = a-2 (A2.44)

in srs with replacement, and

(A2.45)

in srs without replacement.

516 Appendix II

Proof. The sum of squares — y)2 may be written as

¿(w-!/)2 = ¿(to-y)-(y-n2

= ¿(y>-^)2 + "(1/- ^)2 - 2(5 - ^¿(¡/i-^)

= ¿to-n2 + n(5-i7)2-2n(sz-Y)2

= ¿(w-y)2-n(5-y)2

as (y — y) is a constant, and Yn(y

* — Y) — Y™ y< ~ nY — ny — nY =
n(y — y). Now

E l>/-n2 £>to-n2
n
= Var(yt) by definition
= na2 (A2.46)
from equation (A2.33).
In sampling with replacement, from equation (A2.31)
E[n(ÿ-Y)2] = nE(ÿ - y)2 = nVar(ÿ)
= na2/n = er2 (A2.47)
Therefore, in sampling with replacement, taking the expectation of both
sides of equation (A2.43) and using equations (A2.46) and (A2.47), we
obtain
^(s2) = n ! ff2) = <72
n— 1
In sampling without replacement, from equation (A2.37)
E[n(y-Y)2] nE(y — y)2 = n Var(y)
a2 N—n 2 N—n
n — -------- = a --------- (A2.48)
n N-1 N -I
Therefore, in sampling without replacement, taking the expectation of
both sides of equation (A2.43) and using equations (A2.46) and (A4.48),
we obtain
1 N-n cr2 N(n — 1)
£(s2) =
n—1 N-1 n-1 N-1
Na2
A-1 “
Elements of Probability and Proofs 517

by definition of S2 (equation (A2.38)).

A2.3.4 Unbiased estimator of

(A2.49)

in srs with replacement, and

(1-/) (A2.50)

in srs without replacement where s2 is defined in equation (A2.43).

Proof. For srs with replacement, we have seen that

2 — /
«Tÿ = (7 /n
and
F?(s2) = <r2
Therefore

For srs without replacement, we have seen that

<?2
<4= —a-/)
y n
and E(s2) = S2. Therefore,

Ts2 1 LzZ = ÎLzÆ! == 4

£ -(1-/)
n n n
Corollaries. In srs with replacement

E Çn2 = Var(Aj/)
(A2.51)

In srs without replacement

r s2 1
E N2 — (1 -/) = Var(Aj/) (A2.52)

The results follow immediately from equations (A2.49) and (A2.50) mul­
tiplying both sides by N2.
518 Appendix II

A2.3.5 Estimation of universe proportion P

The universe proportion P has been defined in equation (2.66) as
P = N’/N (A2.53)
where N' is the number of universe units possessing a certain attribute, and
N is the total number of units in the universe. The results proved above
are applicable here also by defining for the universe, Y, = 1 if the ¿th unit
(i = 1,2,... ,7V) has the attribute, and Y, = 0, otherwise; and similarly for
the sample. For the universe Yi =■ N'\Y = Y/N = N'/N = P.
1. To prove that the sample proportion p is an unbiased estimator of P.
The sample proportion p has been defined as
n
p- n'/n = ^T/i/n = y (A2.54)

where n' is the number of sample units possessing the attribute, and
n the total number of sample units; y, = 1, if the ¿th sample units
has the attribute and y, = 0, otherwise.
Taking the expectation of both sides of equation (A2.54), we obtain
E(p) = E(y) = Y = P
from equation (2.67).
2. Sampling variance of p. We have seen in equation (2.68) that the
universe variance of Yi is
a2 = P(1 - P) (A2.55)
An unbiased estimator of cr2 has been defined in equation (2.73),
namely
n

(A2.56)

since yi = 1 or 0; 52” y2 = n' = np; and y2 = p2.

The sampling variance of p is

(A2.57)

in srswor (A2.58)
n N- 1
Elements of Probability and Proofs 519

3. Unbiased estimator of a?. An unbiased estimator of a? is

in srs with replacement (A2.59)

p(l -p)
= (1-/) in srs without replacement
n—1
(A2.60)

Proof. Since

s2 =

₽)
£(
* = E = ^~= in srswr
\n) n n

and
N—n
= A- 1
P(1 - P) N -n
= (T? in srswor
n N— 1

A2.3.6 Variance of the ratio of random variables

(a) If y and x are two random variables with expectations Y and X,
variances a? and a£, and covariance ayx = p<rycrx (where p is the correlation
coefficient), the sampling variance of the ratio of two random variables
r = y/x is given approximately by

2<^1 ~ ^yx)
a? = -^2 (<7y + R(i)
(A2.61)

This is proved below for a simple random sample.

(b) In simple random sampling, if variables yi and z, are measured on

each unit of a simple random sample of size n out of N universe units, the
estimator r = y/x = y/x is biased for the ratio R = Y/X (where Y and
X are the respective universe totals of the variables and y = N y and x =
Nx are the corresponding unbiased sample estimators). We shall derive
the expected value, the bias and the sampling variance and the variance
estimator of the estimator r.

(i) Expected value of r. Let e = (y — Y}/Y and e' = (x — X}/X. Then,

since P(j/) = Y, and E(x) = X. E(e) = 0 = P(ez); Var(e) = Var(j/)/y2,
520 Appendix II

Var(e') = Var(x)/X2, and Cov(e,ez) — Cov(j/, z)/YX. As y = Y(l + e),

and x = X(1 4- ez), we have

r = y/x = Y(1 + e)/X(l 4- ez)

= #(1 4- e)(l 4* ez) i (A2.62)

If we assume that |ez| < 1, i.e. x lies between 0 and 2X, which is likely
to happen when the sample size is large, the term (1 4- ez)_1 in expression
(A2.62) may be expanded by Taylor’s theorem. With this assumption and
taking the expectation of both sides of (A2.62), we get

£(r) = R E(1 4- e - e' 4- ez2 - ee' + • • ■) (A2.63)

If we further assume that terms involving second and higher powers

of e and ez are negligible, then we have, to this order of approximation,
E(r) = R since E(e) = 0 = E^e').

(ii) Bias of r. If we assume that terms involving third and higher powers
of e and e' are negligible, we have

E(r) = /?[! 4-0 - 0 4-Var(e') — Cov(e, ez)]

Var(a?) Cov(y,x)
= R 14-
"IP- YX

for Var(e') = E(ez2), and Cov(e,ez) = E(e,ez), as E(e) = 0 = E(e').

Therefore, the bias of r is approximately

E(r)-R =

= «(CK2 - pCV,CVx)
= T [/iVar(x) — Cov(ÿ, x)] (A2.65)
X2
where p is the correlation coefficient between the two variables, and CVy
and CVX are the coefficients of variation of y and x respectively.
To the order of approximation assumed, the bias will be zero, if

R =. Cov(y, x)/Var(z)

and this will occur when the regression line of y on x is a straight line
passing through the origin (0,0).
The bias of the estimator r, given in expression (A2.65), can be esti­
mated by replacing X, R, Var(r) and Cov(j/,z) by their respective sample
Elements of Probability and Proofs 521

estimators. The estimator of the bias is itself subject to bias. If the distri­
butions are not skewed, the coefficients of variation will not be very large,
and |p| < 1, in which case the bias, given by the above expression, will be
small. An upper bound of the magnitude of the relative bias | E^r^~R- j is
given by CVyCVx.

(iii) Sampling variance of r. As the estimator r is biased, its mean

square error is, by definition,

MSE(Y) = E(r - R)2 = R2E[(e - e')2(l + e')~2]

using equation (A2.62) and simplifying. If we assume as before that |e'| < 1
and that terms involving second and higher powers of e and e' are negligible,
then r is considered to be unbiased to this order of approximation, and the
variance and the mean square error become the same. In this case,

MSE(r) Var(r) = R2[E(e-e')2]

Var(y) Var(x) 2Cov(y,x)
R2
Y2 ~X^~ YX
R2(CV2 + CV2 - 2pCVyCVx)
-^2 [Var(j/) + R2 Var(z) - 2R Cov(j/, x)] (A2.66)

The variance estimator of r is obtained on replacing X, R, Var(i/),

Var(x) and Cov(j/,x) by their respective sample estimators. Thus, the
variance estimator is given by equation (2.49) for simple random sampling
with replacement and by equation (2.53) for sampling without replacement.
The variance estimators are generally biased.

Note: The bias in the ratio estimator yR = Xy/x is X times that in r.

A2.3.7 Varying probability sampling

With the notations used in section 5.3, to prove that in varying probability
sampling with replacement,
1 n . n \
E (vo ■ ■ Y (A2.67)

Var(t/o) (A2.68)

„2 = ¿(î/
* -J/o)2/”(n~ 1) —
E sy* 0 ~ ay* 0 (A2.69)
522 Appendix II

Proof. In sampling with replacement at each draw

*W) = *
ft)=£^ =y

so that
^«) = èÈ£:W) = énr = y
To prove (A2.68),

VarM) = a2. = i Var (jj li j = £ VarW)

* ’s are independent, since sampling is with replacement, from

as the j/
(A2.24). Now
Var(y-) = <z2. = £(»• - Ey{)2 = E(y‘ - Y)2

= - y)2^ = *
Y?/
< -y 2 (A2-7°)

since £2^ Jr, = 1. Thus,

To prove (A2.69), we find the per unit variance of a varying probability

sample as

(A271)

The sum of squares £2n(t/

* — J/o)2 may be written as (see section A2.3.3)
Elements of Probability and Proofs 523

from equation (A2.70). Also,

Mn(l/o - y)2] = n E(yo - y)2 = n Var(j/£) = na2./n = a2. (A2.73)

from equation (A2.68).

Therefore, taking the expectation of both sides of equation (A2.71) and
using equations (A2.72) and (A2.73), we obtain

= ~ (A2.74)

2. is an unbiased estimator of <r92i.. Therefore s920. =

i.e. sVj s\/n
9| '
is an
unbiased estimator of aVo
2. = cryt2. ' In.

A2.3.8 Cluster sampling

With the notations of section 6.2.1, to prove that in simple random sample
of clusters
(a)
<r2 = <t2 + a2 (6.5)
or,
Total variance (per unit) = Within-cluster variances + Between-cluster
variance

= [l + (^o-l)pc] (6.9)

Proof, (a) By definition a2 = — y)2 so that (6.5)

NM0(T2 = E - y/ =£ - Yt+Yi - y)2

» j i j

= -F<)2 + M>(y< -Y)2

» L 3

+ 2(yi-y)£(yij-yi)
j J

» j i

as the third term within the square brackets is zero. Thus

= jvk EEm - Y<)2+j? Em - Y)2 =
* 3 3
524 Appendix II

by definitions of cr2 (equation 6.6) and cr2 (equation 6.7).

(b) By definition, cr2 = £T(Y,• — Y)2/7V. Now, (67)

(Yi - Y)

2 _ 1
ab ~ NM2 E Dy->-y)
i j

0 L * j *
= + NM0(M0 - l)a2pc]

by definition of a2 (equation 6.5) and pc (equation 6.8). This, when sim­

plified, gives equation (6.9).

A2.3.9 Stratified simple random sampling

With the notations used in section 10.2, to prove that
(a)

(A2.75)

(b)
L
2 V“"*' 2
y ¿—J 2/ho
(A2.76)

where

ay*Mho in srswr (A2.77)

Uh
Elements of Probability and Proofs 525

_ >.,2 ”h Nl> ~ nl>

S2
— — (1 — fh) in srswor (A2.78)
rih

and
fh = Kh/Nh

(c)

= = (A279>

Proof, (a) From equation (A2.40), we know that y^0 is an unbiased esti­
mator of Yh in every stratum, so that
L L
= £>Mo) = £n = y
(b) For each stratum, from equation (A2.41) in sampling with replace­
ment, we have
2 a h2
(T
y*h0 nh
Then,

= Var(j/) = Var

= 52 Var(^o) + 52 Cov(^o> Vh'o)

h^h'

= £>"(»«) = £X;0
as the covariance terms vanish because samples are drawn independently
in the different strata.
The proof for sampling without replacement follows similarly, noting
that for each stratum from equation (A2.42)

Corollary. The sampling variance of the unbiased estimator of the overall

mean is
Var(y/JV) = as7№ (A2.80)
526 Appendix II

cr2 being defined by equations (A2.76)-(A2.78).

(c) For the hth stratum, from equation (A2.51) in srs with replacement,

1 n\.
s«» = n7(nt-- 1) ~ ÿ»o)2
№ nh
= (A2'81)

is an unbiased estimator of cr2. — N?al/nh. Hence s2 = Y'L s2. is an

*ho n n * *'t- y*o
unbiased estimator of cr2 = £2 ■
Similarly in srs without replacement, from equation (A2.52), [N^s^/rih
(n/j — 1)](1 — fh) is an unbiased estimator of <r2. = s^/n(l —fh)- Hence
the result (A2.79) also for srs without replacement.

Corollary. An unbiased variance estimator of the variance of the overall

mean cr2/N2 is

4/№ (A2.82)

Note: The theorems for stratified varying probability sampling can be proved on
similar lines as for stratified srs.

A2.3.10 Optimum allocation in stratified single-stage sampling

To prove the result given in section 12.3.2, we use the well-known Cauchy-
Schwarz inequality, which states that if ah and bh are two sets of positive
numbers, then

(M (M * (£ (A2.83)

there being equality only if bh is proportional to ah, i.e. if bh/ah is a

constant for all h.
Now, the optimum allocation is obtained on minimizing the variance
function V, given by expression (12.1), for a given total cost C, obtained
using expression (12.5), or vice versa-, this is equivalent to minimizing the
product VC. Taking only those components of V and C that depend on
rih, we have to minimize

(E^m) (£ (A2.84)
Elements of Probability and Proofs 527

From the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality (A2.83), by putting an =

Nh x/(Vh/n^) and bh = \/(nhCh), we see that

(£>M
)
* > [^AW'ilvslF (A2.85)

The minimum value of expression (A2.84), i.e. equality in (A2.85), occurs

only when

— = —— constant — k, say, (A2.86)

ah Nhy/Vh
or

=ArAhx/(I4/ch) (A2.87)

i.
e. rth should be proportional to A^\J(Vh/ch)-
Summing both sides of (A2.87), we get

n=£ =k Y Nl> (A2.88)

which gives the value of Ar; substituting this in (A2.87), we get

nAhy(K7^) (A2.89)

The above expression for presumes the value of n, which would de­
pend on whether the total cost or the variance is specified. If the total
cost is fixed at C', then we substitute the values obtained from equation
(A2.89) in the cost function (12.5), and solve for n, which gives

n = (C' - c0) (A2.90)

£2 Nh\/(yhCh)
Substituting this value of n in equation (A2.89), we get equation (12.6).
Similarly, if the variance is fixed at V' then we substitute the optimum
rih in the variance function (12.1), whence

n = [£№\/(VVÏÏ] /V' (A2.91)

substituting this value of n in equation (A2.89), we get equation (12.7).

528 Appendix II

Notes
1. See notes 2 and 3 to section 12.3.2.
2. The Neyman allocation follows from the above formulation as indicated in
section 12.3.3. A direct proof may also be derived noting that Ch = c, a
constant, and n = (C — co)/c.
3. The proofs for stratified srs without replacement (note 3 to section 12.3.2,
note to section 12.6.1 and note 4 to section 12.6.2) can be derived similarly.
APPENDIX III

Statistical Tables
 Table A3.1: Random numbers

03 47 43 73 86 36 96 47 36 61 46 98 63 71 62 33 26 16 80 45 60 11 14 10 95
97 74 24 67 62 42 81 14 57 20 42 53 32 37 32 27 07 36 07 51 24 51 79 89 73
16 76 62 27 66 56 50 26 71 07 32 90 79 78 53 13 55 38 58 59 88 97 54 14 10
12 56 85 99 26 96 96 68 27 31 05 03 72 93 15 57 12 10 14 21 88 26 49 81 76
55 59 56 35 64 38 54 82 46 22 31 62 43 09 90 06 18 44 32 53 23 83 01 30 30
16 22 77 94 39 49 54 43 54 82 17 37 93 23 78 87 35 20 96 43 84 26 34 91 64
84 42 17 53 31 57 24 55 06 88 77 04 74 47 67 21 76 33 50 25 83 92 12 06 76
63 01 63 78 59 16 95 55 67 19 98 10 50 71 75 12 86 73 58 07 44 39 52 38 79
33 21 12 34 29 78 64 56 07 82 52 42 07 44 38 15 51 00 13 42 99 66 02 79 54
57 60 86 32 44 09 47 27 96 54 49 17 46 09 62 90 52 84 77 27 08 02 73 43 28
18 18 07 92 46 44 17 16 58 09 79 83 86 19 62 06 76 50 03 10 55 23 64 05 05
26 62 38 97 75 84 16 07 44 99 83 11 46 32 24 20 14 85 88 45 10 93 72 88 71
23 42 40 64 74 82 97 77 77 81 07 45 32 14 08 32 98 94 07 72 93 85 79 10 75
52 36 28 19 95 50 92 26 11 97 00 56 76 31 38 80 22 02 53 53 86 60 42 04 53
37 85 94 35 12 83 39 50 08 30 42 34 07 96 88 54 42 06 87 98 35 85 29 48 39
70 29 17 12 13 40 33 20 38 26 13 89 51 03 74 17 76 37 13 04 07 74 21 19 30
56 62 18 37 35 96 83 50 87 75 97 12 25 93 47 70 33 24 03 54 97 77 46 44 80
99 49 57 22 77 88 42 95 45 72 16 64 36 16 00 04 43 18 66 79 94 77 24 21 90
16 08 15 04 72 33 27 14 34 09 45 59 34 68 49 12 72 07 34 45 99 27 72 95 14
31 16 93 32 43 50 27 89 87 19 20 15 37 00 49 52 85 66 60 44 38 68 88 11 80
68 34 30 13 70 55 74 30 77 40 44 22 78 84 26 04 33 46 09 52 68 07 97 06 57
74 57 25 65 76 59 29 97 68 60 71 91 38 67 54 13 58 18 24 76 15 54 55 95 52
27 42 37 86 53 48 55 90 65 72 96 57 69 36 10 96 46 92 42 45 97 60 49 04 91
00 39 68 29 61 66 37 32 20 30 77 84 57 03 29 10 45 65 04 26 11 04 96 67 24
29 94 98 94 24 68 49 69 10 82 53 75 91 93 30 34 25 20 57 27 40 48 73 51 92
16 90 82 66 59 83 62 64 11 12 67 19 00 71 74 60 47 21 29 68 02 02 37 03 31
11 27 94 75 06 06 09 19 74 66 02 94 37 34 02 76 70 90 30 86 38 45 94 30 38
35 24 10 16 20 33 32 51 26 38 79 78 45 04 91 16 92 53 56 16 02 75 50 95 98
38 23 16 86 38 42 38 97 01 50 87 75 66 81 41 40 01 74 91 62 48 51 84 08 32
31 96 25 91 47 96 44 33 49 13 34 86 82 53 91 00 52 43 48 85 27 55 26 89 62
56 67 40 67 14 64 05 71 95 86 11 05 65 09 68 76 83 20 37 90 57 16 00 11 66
14 90 84 45 11 75 73 88 05 90 52 27 41 14 86 22 98 12 22 08 07 52 74 95 80
68 05 51 18 00 33 96 02 75 19 07 60 62 93 55 59 33 82 43 90 49 37 38 44 59
20 46 78 73 90 97 51 40 14 02 04 02 33 31 08 39 54 16 49 36 47 95 93 13 30
64 19 58 97 79 15 06 15 93 20 01 90 10 75 06 40 78 78 89 62 02 67 74 17 33
05 26 93 70 60 22 35 85 15 13 92 03 51 59 77 59 56 78 06 83 52 91 05 70 74
07 97 10 88 23 09 98 42 99 64 61 71 62 99 15 06 51 29 16 93 58 05 77 09 51
68 71 86 85 85 54 87 66 47 54 73 32 08 11 12 44 95 92 63 16 29 56 24 29 48
26 99 61 65 53 58 37 78 80 70 42 10 50 67 42 32 17 55 85 74 94 44 67 16 94
14 65 52 68 75 87 59 36 22 41 26 78 63 06 55 13 08 27 01 50 15 29 39 39 43
17 53 77 58 71 71 41 61 50 72 12 41 94 96 26 44 95 27 36 99 02 96 74 30 83
90 26 59 21 19 23 52 23 33 12 96 93 02 18 39 07 02 18 36 07 25 99 32 70 23
41 23 52 55 99 31 04 49 69 96 10 47 48 45 88 13 41 43 89 20 97 17 14 49 17
60 20 50 81 69 31 99 73 68 68 35 81 33 03 76 24 30 12 48 60 18 99 10 72 34
91 25 38 05 90 94 58 28 41 36 45 37 59 03 09 90 35 57 29 12 82 62 54 65 60
34 50 57 74 37 98 80 33 00 91 09 77 93 19 82 74 94 80 04 04 45 07 31 66 49
85 22 04 39 43 73 81 53 94 79 33 62 46 86 28 08 31 54 46 31 53 94 13 38 47
09 79 13 77 48 73 82 97 22 21 05 03 27 24 83 72 89 44 05 60 35 80 39 94 88
88 75 80 18 14 22 95 75 42 49 39 32 82 22 49 02 48 07 70 37 16 04 61 67 87
90 96 23 70 00 39 00 03 06 90 55 85 78 38 36 94 37 30 69 32 90 89 00 76 33
 Table A3.1 continued
53 74 23 99 07 61 32 28 69 84 94 62 67 86 24 98 33 41 19 95 47 53 53 38 09
63 38 06 86 54 99 00 65 26 94 02 82 90 23 07 79 62 67 80 60 75 91 12 81 19
35 30 58 21 46 06 72 17 10 94 25 21 31 75 96 49 28 24 00 49 55 65 79 78 07
63 43 36 82 69 65 51 18 37 88 61 38 44 12 45 32 92 85 88 65 54 34 81 85 35
98 25 37 55 26 01 91 82 81 46 74 71 12 94 97 *
24 02 71 37 07 03 92 18 66 75
02 63 21 17 69 71 50 80 89 56 38 15 70 11 48 43 40 45 86 98 00 83 26 91 03
64 55 22 21 82 48 22 28 06 00 61 54 13 43 91 82 78 12 23 29 06 66 24 12 27
85 07 26 13 89 01 10 07 82 04 59 63 69 36 03 69 11 15 83 80 13 29 54 19 28
58 54 16 24 15 51 54 44 82 00 62 61 65 04 69 38 18 65 18 97 85 72 13 49 21
34 85 27 84 87 61 48 64 56 26 90 18 48 13 26 37 70 15 42 57 65 65 80 39 07
03 92 18 27 46 57 99 16 96 56 30 33 72 85 22 84 64 38 56 98 99 01 30 98 64
62 95 30 27 59 37 75 41 66 48 86 97 80 61 45 21 53 04 01 63 45 76 08 64 27
08 45 93 15 22 60 21 75 46 91 98 77 27 85 42 28 88 61 08 84 69 62 03 42 73
07 08 55 18 40 45 44 75 13 90 24 94 96 61 02 57 55 66 83 15 73 42 37 11 61
01 85 89 95 66 51 10 19 34 88 15 84 97 19 75 12 76 39 43 78 64 63 91 08 25
72 84 71 14 35 19 11 58 49 26 50 11 17 17 76 86 31 57 20 18 95 60 78 46 75
88 78 28 16 84 13 52 53 94 53 75 45 69 30 96 73 89 65 70 31 99 17 43 48 76
45 17 75 65 57 28 40 19 72 12 25 12 74 75 67 60 40 60 81 19 24 62 01 61 16
96 76 28 12 54 22 01 11 94 25 71 96 16 16 88 68 64 36 74 45 19 59 50 88 92
43 31 67 72 30 24 02 94 08 63 38 32 36 66 02 69 36 38 25 39 48 03 45 15 22
50 44 66 44 21 66 06 58 05 62 68 15 54 35 02 42 35 48 96 32 14 52 41 52 48
22 66 22 15 86 26 63 75 41 99 58 42 36 72 24 58 37 52 18 51 03 37 18 39 11
96 24 40 14 51 23 22 30 88 57 95 67 47 29 83 94 69 40 06 07 18 16 36 78 86
31 73 91 61 19 60 20 72 93 48 98 57 07 23 69 65 95 39 69 58 56 80 30 19 44
78 60 73 99 84 43 89 94 36 45 56 69 47 07 41 90 22 91 07 12 78 35 34 08 72
84 37 90 61 56 70 10 23 98 05 85 11 34 76 60 76 48 45 34 60 01 64 18 39 96
36 67 10 08 23 98 93 35 08 86 99 29 76 29 81 33 34 91 58 93 63 14 52 32 52
07 28 59 07 48 89 64 58 89 75 83 85 62 27 89 30 14 78 56 27 86 63 50 80 02
10 15 83 87 60 79 24 31 66 56 21 48 24 06 93 91 98 94 05 49 01 47 59 38 00
55 19 68 97 65 03 73 52 16 56 00 53 55 90 27 33 42 29 38 87 22 13 88 83 34
53 81 29 13 39 35 01 20 71 34 62 33 74 82 14 53 73 19 09 03 56 54 29 56 93
51 86 32 68 92 33 98 74 66 99 40 14 71 94 58 45 94 19 38 81 14 44 99 81 07
35 91 70 29 13 80 03 54 07 27 96 94 78 32 66 50 95 52 74 33 13 80 55 62 54
37 71 67 95 13 20 02 44 95 94 64 85 04 05 72 01 32 90 76 14 53 89 74 60 41
93 66 13 83 27 92 79 64 64 72 28 54 96 53 84 48 14 52 98 94 56 07 93 89 30
02 96 08 45 65 13 05 00 41 84 93 07 54 72 59 21 45 57 09 77 19 48 56 27 44
49 83 43 48 35 82 88 33 69 96 72 36 04 19 76 47 45 15 18 60 82 11 08 95 97
84 60 71 62 46 40 80 81 30 37 34 39 23 05 38 25 15 35 71 30 88 12 57 21 77
18 17 30 88 71 44 91 14 88 47 89 23 30 63 15 56 34 20 47 89 99 82 93 24 98
79 69 10 61 78 71 32 76 95 62 87 00 22 58 40 92 54 01 75 25 43 11 71 99 31
75 93 36 57 83 56 20 14 82 11 74 21 97 90 65 96 42 68 63 86 74 54 13 26 94
38 30 92 29 03 06 28 81 39 38 62 25 06 84 63 61 29 08 93 67 04 32 92 08 00
51 29 50 10 34 31 57 75 95 80 51 97 02 74 77 76 15 48 49 44 18 55 63 77 09
21 31 38 86 24 37 79 81 53 74 73 24 16 10 33 52 83 90 94 96 70 47 14 54 36
29 01 23 87 88 58 02 39 37 67 42 10 14 20 92 16 55 23 42 45 54 76 09 11 06
95 33 95 22 00 18 74 72 00 18 38 79 58 69 32 81 76 80 26 92 82 80 84 25 39
90 84 60 79 80 24 36 59 87 38 82 07 53 89 35 96 35 23 79 18 05 98 90 07 35
46 40 62 98 82 54 97 20 56 95 15 74 80 08 32 16 46 70 50 80 67 72 16 42 79
20 31 89 03 43 38 46 82 68 72 32 14 82 99 70 80 60 47 18 97 63 49 30 21 30
71 59 73 05 50 08 22 23 71 77 91 01 93 20 49 82 96 59 26 91 66 39 67 08 60
532 Appendix III

Table A3.2: Selected values of the /-distribution

Degrees Probability (a)

of
0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.01 0.001
freedom

1 1.000 3.078 6.314 12.706 63.657 636.619

2 0.816 1.886 2.920 4.303 9.925 31.598
3 0.765 1.638 2.353 3.182 5.841 12.924
4 0.741 1.533 2.132 2.776 4.604 8.610
5 0.727 1.476 2.015 2.571 4.032 6.869
6 0.718 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.707 5.959
7 0.711 1.415 1.895 2.365 3.499 5.408
8 0.706 1.397 1.860 2.306 3.355 5.041
9 0.703 1.383 1.833 2.262 3.250 4.781
10 0.700 1.372 1.812 2.228 3.169 4.587
11 0.697 1.363 1.796 2.201 3.106 4.437
12 0.695 1.356 1.782 2.179 3.055 4.318
13 0.694 1.350 1.771 2.160 3.012 4.221
14 0.692 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.977 4.140
15 0.691 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.947 4.073
16 0.690 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.921 4.015
17 0.689 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.898 3.965
18 0.688 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.878 3.922
19 0.688 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.861 3.883
20 0.687 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.845 3.850
25 0.684 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.787 3.725
30 0.683 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.750 3.646
40 0.681 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.704 3.551
60 0.679 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.660 3.460
120 0.677 1.289 1.658 1.980 2.617 3.373
QO
0.674 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.576 3.291
(normal)

Table A3.3: Values of Coefficient of Variation (CV) per unit in the universe
for different values of the universe proportion P

P CV(%) P CV(%) P CV(%)

0.01 995 0.25 173 0.65 73

0.02 700 0.30 153 0.70 65
0.03 569 0.35 136 0.75 58
0.04 490 0.40 127 0.80 50
0.05 436 0.45 111 0.85 41
0.10 300 0.50 100 0.90 33
0.15 238 0.55 90 0.95 23
0.20 200 0.60 82 0.99 10

= -P)/P\
Statistical Tables 533

Table A3.4: Sample size (n) required to ensure desired coefficient of varia­
tion of sample estimator (e) in sampling with replacement

Desired
CV of Value of universe CV per unit (%)
sample
esti-
mator 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 150 200

25 1 1 1 1 3 4 6 8 10 13 16 36 64
20 1 1 1 2 4 6 9 12 16 20 25 56 100
15 1 1 2 4 7 11 16 22 28 36 44 100 178
10 1 1 4 9 16 25 36 49 64 81 100 225 400
5 1 4 16 36 64 100 144 196 256 324 400 900 1600
4 2 5 25 56 100 156 225 306 400 506 625 1406 2500
3 3 11 44 108 178 278 400 544 711 900 1111 2500 4444
2.5 4 16 64 144 256 400 576 784 1024 1296 1600 3600 6400
2 5 25 100 225 400 625 900 1225 1600 2025 2500 5625 10000
1 25 100 400 900 1600 2500 3600 4900 6400 8100 10000 22 500 40 000

n = (Universe CV per unit/Desircd CV of sample estimator)

 APPENDIX IV

Hypothetical Universe of 600 Households in

30 Villages in 3 States

Table A4.1

State Village Area Previous Number Size of households Total

(Arm2) census of popular
population households tion

I 1 8.7 69 17 7 5 5 4 6 2 3 5 5 6 76
5 4 4 4 5 3 3
2 10.6 82 18 6 5 4 5 4 5 6 5 3 5 82
4 4 5 3 3 5 6 4
3 15.0 110 26 6 6 3 5 3 4 5 5 4 4 116
4 3 7 5 4 6 2 5 5 6
1 5 5 4 6 3
4 6.2 80 18 6 3 6 3 6 3 4 5 4 4 76
4 5 6 3 5 1 3 5
5 9.6 92 24 5 4 6 5 4 5 6 5 4 4 112
7 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 3 4
3 3 5 3
6 7.3 65 17 3 4 4 6 5 7 3 5 4 5 77
4 6 4 5 3 3 6
7 4.5 72 20 6 4 4 5 4 5 6 4 3 5 88
4 6 5 5 2 4 5 4 3 4
8 10.6 108 24 5 3 3 7 4 4 6 6 4 5 109
3 7 6 4 5 6 3 5 1 3
5 6 4 4
9 5.4 106 24 5 3 5 3 4 6 5 4 6 5 111
6 3 6 5 6 6 3 5 4 4
5 4 6 2
10 3.5 80 22 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 88
5 3 4 5 4 3 4 3 5 4
4 1

(continued)

535
 536 Appendix IV

Table A4.1 continued

State Village Area Previous Number Size of households Total

(km2) census of popula-
population households tion

II 1 5.8 72 15 8 4 4 6 5 5 5 7 3 5 78
6 6 6 4 4
2 11.4 102 22 9 6 5 5 4 3 5 5 3 10 112
4 4 6 5 4 7 4 5 3 6
4 5
3 5.8 73 17 6 5 5 3 6 5 3 7 3 5 80
5 6 6 5 3 4 3
4 7.8 84 19 6 4 6 4 5 4 4 5 7 6 93
4 6 4 5 6 5 3 4 5
5 6.5 98 20 8 4 3 5 6 3 7 5 5 5 105
6 6 7 3 6 6 7 2 5 6
6 9.0 84 19 4 3 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 3 93
5 4 5 5 3 9 4 5 6
7 7.3 85 19 7 5 5 3 5 4 4 5 8 4 95
4 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 4
8 7.0 102 23 4 5 5 4 6 5 5 3 4 4 114
8 5 4 4 5 6 4 5 4 6
7 5 6
9 10.5 122 25 8 4 4 5 5 4 7 5 6 4 127
5 5 8 5 3 6 3 4 6 5
4 7 3 5 6
10 11.1 102 23 7 4 5 6 5 4 6 4 4 7 113
5 2 5 4 4 9 6 5 6 2
4 4 5
11 6.3 86 18 4 5 4 4 7 5 5 7 5 9 94
6 5 7 4 3 5 4 5

III 1 10.0 78 15 8 6 7 4 6 5 5 2 7 7 83
7 5 6 4 4
2 14.2 112 21 9 4 5 8 6 3 6 5 5 5 121
6 2 8 5 8 4 5 7 5 7
8
3 8.2 97 18 8 8 4 8 3 6 6 6 4 6 105
6 8 7 6 4 5 6 4
4 12.5 117 21 7 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 6 6 129
6 5 7 5 9 8 6 6 6 4
7
5 6.5 106 20 7 3 5 6 6 7 5 6 5 5 114
4 10 7 6 5 8 6 4 6 3

(continued)
Hypothetical Universe 537

Table A4.1 continued

State Village Area Previous Number Size of households Total

(/cm2) census of popula­
population households tion

III 6 10.0 115 21 7 4 6 7 10 4 5 5 6 7 121

6 3 8 7 6 4 6 5 5 3
7
7 7.0 110 21 7 6 4 8 1 6 6 7 4 6 116
6 7 6 7 3 6 6 7 2 5
6
8 12.5 104 17 3 8 5 7 6 10 7 8 4 8 109
7 6 6 5 7 6 6
9 10.2 103 16 6 5 7 6 4 5 8 4 7 8 105
7 6 10 7 6 4 5
APPENDIX V

Case Study:
Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5

A5.1 Introduction

Along with the Current Population Survey (with probability sampling start­
ing in 1943) in the U.S. and the Family Expenditure Survey (continuing
since 1957) in the U.K., the National Sample Survey in India has a long tra­
dition of undertaking probability-based household surveys on a continuing
basis.
As a case study, the main features of the planning, execution and anal­
ysis of the Indian National Sample Survey (NSS) for the period July 1964-
June 1965 are given in this chapter, based on Technical Paper on Sample
Design, The National Sample Survey, Nineteenth Round, July 1964-June
1965 by A.S. Roy and A. Bhattacharyya (1968).
At the instance of P.C. Mahalanobis, Honorary Statistical Adviser to
the Cabinet of the Government of India, the National Sample Survey was
started in 1950 with the object of obtaining comprehensive and continuing
information on economic, social, demographic, and agricultural character­
istics through sample surveys on a country-wide basis. The information
collected is utilized for planning, research and other purposes by the Cen­
tral and State Governments, the Planning Commission and other interested
organizations. The NSS is a continuing, multi-subject, integrated survey
and is conducted in the form of successive “rounds”; each round covers
several topics of current interest in a specific survey period. The scope,
period, sample design and program of each round are fixed by taking into
account the requirements of its users and the resources available for that
period. Since 1958-9, the survey period has been made one complete year
coinciding approximately with the agricultural year.

539
540 Appendix V

A5.2 Objectives of the survey

The survey for 1964-5 was designed to provide information on the following
topics: population, current and historical fertility and current mortality;
employment and unemployment; indebtedness of rural labor households;
land utilization, acreage and production of the major cereal crops; rural re­
tail prices; and integrated socioeconomic activities of the households. The
survey covered the whole of India, but excluded a few specific areas, the lat­
ter accounting for less than 0.5 per cent of the total estimated population.
Hotel residents and persons in boarding houses were included, but inmates
of hospitals, nursing homes, jails etc. were not covered by the survey: per­
sons without fixed abode were included only for the demographic inquiry.
The results were required for the nineteen state and union territories and
separately for the rural and the urban sectors, but the crop survey was
designed to provide estimates for all the major cereal crops taken together
for rural India as a whole. The total cost of the field survey was about Rs.
8 million ($1 US = Rs. 7.50 and £\ Sterling = Rs. 18.00 at the then official
exchange rates) and an equivalent sum is estimated to have been spent on
the tabulation, analysis and preparation of reports.

A5.3 Budget and cost control

From the early planning stages, preliminary budgets were prepared on the
basis of the experiences of a few of the preceding rounds and were examined
on the basis of the time records of the staff engaged in field enumeration
and processing.

A5.4 Administrative organization

A Program Advisory Committee consisting of the representatives of the

Planning Commission, Central Ministries, State Governments, the Central
Statistical Organization, the NSS Directorate and the Indian Statistical
Institute advised the Department of Statistics under the Cabinet Secre­
tariat of the Government of India on the overall planning, subject coverage,
methodology, tabulation program, fixation of priorities, and other related
matters of the NSS. The final decisions on these points were taken by the
Department of Statistics.
The Directorate of the National Sample Survey under the Department
of Statistics is responsible for the field work and the Indian Statistical Insti­
tute for the technical work, including the planning of the survey, processing,
analysis, and the preparation of reports and studies (in 1970, the depart­
ments of the Indian Statistical Institute responsible for the technical work
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 541

of the NSS were transferred to the NSS Directorate of the Government of

India). Field work is done by full time and mostly permanent enumerators
and supervisory staff, a large number of whom have Bachelor of Arts, Sci­
ence or Commerce degrees. The technical work is undertaken by full time,
qualified personnel. Thus the benefits of a permanent survey organization
are realized.
Fourteen out of the fifteen states participated in the survey on a match­
ing basis. They surveyed an additional matching sample, selected in an
identical manner, used the same concepts and definitions, followed the same
survey procedure, but processed and analyzed their own data. The sam­
ple surveyed by the Central Government agency is known as the “central”
sample and that surveyed by the State Government agencies the “state
sample”. The central and state samples were “linked” members, described
later, in a system of interpenetrating sub-samples. The data of the cen­
tral and the state samples are sometimes pooled together to provide more
efficient estimates than either sample.

A5.5 Coordination with other bodies

The interests of government departments and other institutions were ascer­

tained and accommodated to the extent possible, as advised by the Program
Advisory Committee. Close coordination with the Office of the Registrar
General, revenue departments etc. was maintained for obtaining and up­
dating the frames for the strata and the first-stage units (generally villages
in the rural sector and urban blocks in the urban sector, the maps for which
were obtained from the two agencies mentioned).

A5.6 Questionnaire preparation

For reasons mentioned in section 26.12.1, schedules rather than question­

naires were used. Information was collected with required details; the time
reference periods for the data depended on the items. The list of schedules
canvassed is given later.

A5.7 Methods of data collection and supervision

For the socioeconomic inquiries, the data were collected by interviewing a

sample of households, and the data on crop acreage and yield rates were
obtained by direct physical observation of the acreage and the actual har­
vesting of crops (known as crop-cutting experiments). Information was also
obtained for a sub-sample of households on areas under different crops by
the interview method with a view to comparing its utility with that of the
542 Appendix V

detailed crop schedule based on physical observation: this comparison has

not yet been made.
There was, on an average, one supervisor for every four enumerators.
The supervisors also undertook field checks of the enumerators’ work.

A5.8 Survey design

A5.8.1 Type of survey

The survey was a multi-subject inquiry on the topics mentioned in section
A5.2; for a sub-sample of households, the integrated survey approach was
taken for consumption and productive enterprises (section 26.13.1).

A5.8.2 Choice of sample design

The sample design was stratified multi-stage and the design was similar but
completely independent for the rural and urban areas. In the rural sector,
groups of villages formed the strata, 353 in number; in the urban sector,
towns and cities in a state were generally grouped into two strata according
to their 1961 population, there being a total of 37 urban strata from the
whole of India.
For the household inquiries, the sampling plan was stratified two-stage;
within each stratum, the first-stage units were villages in the rural sector,
and urban blocks in the urban sector, and households formed the second-
stage units. The first-stage units were selected circular systematically with
probability proportional to size, the measure of size being related to the
1961 Census population, and the second-stage unites were selected linear
systematically with equal probability. The sample design was self-weighting
for the household inquiries, at the state level for the rural sector and at the
stratum level for the urban sector. For crop-area surveys, the sampling
plan was stratified two-stage, and for yield-rate surveys it was four-stage,
the successive stages being villages, clusters of plots, crop plots and circular
cuts. The same sample villages were used for both the households and the
crop inquiries.
The first-stage units were selected in the form of four independent, inter­
penetrating sub-samples. The first-stage units were selected at the Indian
Statistical Institute and the households, clusters of plots etc., selected in
the field by the enumerators.
Experiences of the past years provided information on the allocation of
the all-India sample sizes (first-stage units) to the different strata, and the
allocation of the second-stage units for the different types of inquiries. The
total sample size is in particular the product of the total number of enu­
merators and the number of villages and urban blocks that can be surveyed
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 543

by an enumerator during the whole survey period. With the work load of
an enumerator being more or less fixed, the demand for a big sample in
order to provide estimates at the state and lower levels had to be met by
increasing the number of enumerators. The total number of enumerators in
the nineteenth round was 752 for the central sample (with a reserve of 10
per cent), of whom 706 were to survey both the rural and the urban areas
and 46 in the urban areas only. The saving arising from the multi-subject
nature of the survey was also utilized for having a large number of sample
fsu’s. The total number of first-stage units for the central sample was set
at 8,472 villages and 4,572 urban blocks.
For the reasons mentioned in section 26.13.4, the survey period was
the agricultural year, divided into six equal periods of two months each,
called sub-rounds, and one-sixth of the sample surveyed in each sub-round.
This ensured firstly the employment of a smaller number of skilled and
well-trained enumerators, and secondly the representation of all the four
seasons so that the seasonal fluctuations were taken into account.
For the household inquiries, sampling was the most intensive for the
population schedule, with overall sampling fractions of 0.2 per cent in the
rural sector and 0.4 per cent in the urban for the central sample, and
least intensive for the integrated schedules 17 and 17(suppl.), with overall
sampling fractions of 0.01 per cent in the rural sector and 0.02 per cent in
the urban sector.
The time required for enumerating the different schedules was obtained
on the basis of the records in the previous rounds and, for the schedules
which were canvassed for the first time, on the basis of a try-out. In large-
scale surveys, journey time accounts for an appreciable portion of the total
time and depends on the size of the area an enumerator covers, the num­
ber of sample first-stage units and the general transport facilities. In the
present survey, an enumerator’s area of operation in the rural sector was
the stratum in which he was posted. Most of these strata were less than
4,000 square miles in area and this was considered to be a manageable size
for an enumerator. When a stratum exceeded 4,000 square miles in area,
that stratum was sub-divided into two or more parts known as investiga­
tion zones and the sample villages to be surveyed by an enumerator were
selected from one of these zones. An enumerator was allotted twelve vil­
lages in his stratum and a similar procedure was followed for the urban
blocks, which achieved some savings in the journey time, but only marginal
savings could be achieved in the enumeration time. For the socioeconomic
inquiries, the preparation of sampling frames for selecting households was
simplified and a schedule was canvassed in a sub-sample of households se­
lected for another schedule. For crop surveys, a sample of clusters of plots
instead of a direct sample of individual plots was chosen: this was because
544 Appendix V

the time taken for identifying the plots is comparatively large in relation
to the time taken for recording the land utilization of such plots. Also, the
same sample of clusters of plots was surveyed in all the crop seasons instead
of surveying fresh clusters during each season. Finally, when the sample
village or the urban block was big, the enumerators were allowed to con­
fine the survey only to part of a sample village or the urban block so that
their individual work load remained within limits. For household inquiries,
each sample village and urban-block was visited and surveyed only once
during the whole round. The crop survey was conducted in each of the four
seasons - autumn, winter, spring and summer. The crop-area survey was
conducted in all the twenty-four sample villages of the rural sector while
the crop-yield survey was taken up only in one-fourth of the villages. The
price inquiry was conducted in a fixed set of sample villages which has been
continuing since the sixteenth round, July 1960-June 1961. These sample
villages were 491 in number. The time standards for enumerating differ­
ent schedules and the average work load of an enumerator within a sample
village or an urban block are shown in Table A5.1.

A5.8.3 Sample design in the rural sector

Some details of the sample design in the rural sector are given in this section.
The sampling frame used for the first-stage units, namely villages, was the
Primary Census Abstract (PCA) of the 1961 population census. The rural
PCA provided a complete list of all the 1961 census villages with their
identification particulars, as well as supplementary information, for example
on population, area, number of houses and households, number of literates,
number of workers in different occupational groups such as agriculture,
industry etc. The abstract was available in the form of booklets (manuscript
copy), each booklet giving the list of villages for one t eh sil/taluk/thana of
a state.
The villages were selected with probability proportional to size, the
size of a village being related to its 1961 Census population. Each village
was assigned a size in such a way that the size became a simple indicator
of the village population and also an integer. The strict probability pro­
portional to population sampling was not favored because it would have
involved heavy computational work at the selection stage, would have been
unnecessary for those items which are not strongly related to population,
and would have made it extremely difficult to achieve a self-weighting de­
sign. The average population of villages having populations between 0-499,
500-999, 1000-1999, 2000-2999, and so on were computed for each of these
population classes separately for each state and union territory. The size 1
was assigned to villages with population less than 500. The size of a village
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 545

Table A5.1: Average time requirements for different schedules and journey
between the average work-load within a sample village/urban block: Indian
National Sample Survey, 19th round, July 1964-June 1965

Schedule Description Sector Time standard Sample size

no.

0.1 General schedule Rural 2 1/2 days/village 120 hh/village

(for listing)

0.2 General schedule Urban 3 1/2 days/block 160 hh/block

(for listing)

3.01 Rural retail Rural 11/2 days/village 419 villages

(monthly)

4.1 Investigator’s time Rural & —

record for urban
socioeconomic inquiry

4.2 Investigators’ time Rural

record for crop
surveys and price
inquiry

5.0 Land utilization Rural 30 plots/day 60 plots per

survey crop-cutting
village;
20 plots in
others

5.1 Crop-cutting Rural 2 plots/day 6 cuts per

experiments crop-cutting
village

5.2 Driage experiment Rural "" 5 cuts per

crop-cutting
village

10 Urban labor force Urban 8 hh/day 6.7 hh/block

10.1 Employment, Rural 8 hh/day 8 hh/village

unemployment and
indebtedness of
rural households

(continued)
546 Appendix V

Table A5.1 (continued)

Schedule Description Sector Time standard Sample size

no.

12 Population, births Rural 25 hh/day 20 hh/village

and deaths Urban or block

16 Integrated household Rural & 1 hh/day 2 hh/village

schedule (detailed) Urban or block

17 Integrated household Rural & 2 hh/day 1 hh/village

schedule (abridged) Urban or block

17(S) Integrated household Rural 1 hh/day 1 hh/village

schedule (abridged)-
land utilization

- Field progress reports Rural & - -

Urban

Journey to a Rural &

village/block Urban

Source: Roy and Bhattacharyya (1968).

Notes:
1. Schedules 5.0, 5.1, 5.2, and 17 (S) were taken up in each of the four crop
seasons.
2. For Schedule 5.1, the sample size may go up to 12 cuts, depending upon
the nature of sowing of pure and mixed crops.
3. “hh” denotes household(s); “S” denotes Supplementary.
in any other population size class was taken as the ratio of the average
population on the class to the average population of villages in the first class,
rounded off to a suitable integer. The total size of a tehsil was obtained by
cumulating the sizes of all the villages contained in that tehsil. Similarly,
the total size of a region was obtained by cumulating the sizes of all tehsils
contained in that region (there were forty-eight regions, formed by grouping
contiguous districts within a state mainly on the basis of information on
topography, crop pattern, and population density: the ultimate rural strata
were formed within these regions).
The all-India central sample of 8,472 villages was allocated to the dif­
ferent states (and union territories) on a joint consideration of the rural
populations, area under food crops, and the enumerator strength. This
allocation was modified to ensure a minimum sample size of 360 villages in
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 547

each state, which was made a multiple of 24 in order to facilitate having

four sub-samples of six villages each per stratum. The allocation to any
rural stratum was always 24 sample villages in order to achieve uniform
work load for the enumerators all over India.
The total number of sample villages allocated to a state (or union ter­
ritory) was divided by 24 to get the total number of strata to be formed in
the state (or union territory). The number was allocated to the regions in
that state in proportion to the region sizes. The proportional allocations
were adjusted to obtain an integral number of strata in all the regions.
After deciding the number of strata, the next step was to determine the
stratum sizes for a state. The strata were made of equal size within a state:
the first consideration was that it would justify having equal allocations of
sample size per stratum, and the second that it would considerably help
to implement the self-weighting design. With these ideas in view, the to­
tal size of the state, that is the sum of the sizes of all the villages in that
state, was divided by the proposed number of strata (say L) to yield the
average stratum size (say Z') for that state. This average size was rounded
off and made a multiple of 12 in order to attain an integral interval at the
selection stage as 12 villages (central and state samples taken together)
were selected systematically in each sub-sample of a rural stratum. The
formation of strata had the following requirements to satisfy:

1. Each stratum should comprise a geographically compact area.

2. The stratum boundaries should not cut across the regions since esti­
mates were required to be obtained separately for each region; (region­
wise estimates can be built up even if the regions contain some part­
strata, but such estimates are liable to large sampling errors due to
the “randomness” of sample size on which they are based.)
3. The stratum boundaries should not cut across the state blocks which
were compact groups of districts in a big state. Each state block
was an administrative unit of the NSS directorate and there would
have arisen some administrative difficulties of travelling allowance,
inspection, supervision, etc. if the enumerator under the charge of
one state block had to survey sample villages falling in another state
block.

4. Different parts of a stratum should be similar with respect to popu­

lation densities and altitude.

5. There should be good transport and communication facilities among

different parts of a stratum so that an enumerator posted in that
stratum could travel throughout it without much difficulty.
548 Appendix V

6. The original size (say Z') of a stratum (i.e. sum of the sizes of villages
in it) should not differ by more than 10 per cent from the planned
average figure Z, because otherwise the large adjustment to be done
in order to equalize this Z' to Z would lower the sampling efficiency
of the pps design.
In all, 353 compact strata were formed by grouping contiguous tehsils
such that the first, second, and the sixth conditions were completely sat­
isfied and conditions three, four and five satisfied to the extent possible.
Finally, the original stratum size Z1 was made equal to Z by slightly in­
creasing or decreasing the sizes of the villages belonging to the stratum.
In each stratum, four independent sub-samples of 12 villages each were
selected circular systematically with probability proportional to the size,
the size being defined earlier. Out of these 12 villages in a sub-sample,
the six villages with odd orders of selection constituted the central sample
and the rest, with even orders of selection, the state sample. The linking
of central and state samples ensured a better spread of samples over the
whole stratum and consequently a better estimate when the central and
the state sample data are pooled together.
The interval for systematic selection for either the central or the state
sample was obtained as I = Z/6; the interval I, an integer, was the same
for all the strata in a state since stratum sizes were equalized during the
formation of the strata. Four independent random starts were used for
selecting the four sub-samples of the 12 villages each.
Because of pps selection, larger villages occurred more frequently in the
sample. This resulted in too heavy a work load for some enumerators. The
planned work load involved the listing of 120 households per sample village
on an average, i.e. a total of 1,440 households per year per enumerator. To
reduce the work load of household listing in large villages, the hamlets were
grouped in such a manner as to contain approximately the same population
and the survey confined to one hamlet group, selected at random with equal
probability. The number of hamlet groups to be formed in a village was
specified by the Indian Statistical Institute, but the formation and selection
of the hamlet groups were done by the enumerators on reaching the sample
villages.
For selection of households for the socioeconomic inquiries, the house­
holds were not stratified according to the available information for this
would have complicated the computation of the estimates and would have
rendered difficult the task of making the design self-weighting. The same
objectives of stratification were to a large extent achieved by arranging the
households in the manner described in section 4.3.3. From the sampling
frame thus prepared, a sample of 22 households on an average was selected
linear systematically with the interval and a random start prescribed for
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 549

this purpose. For schedule 16, a sub-sample of 2 households on an average

was selected systematically with interval 11 and a specified random start
for this schedule; for schedule 17, from the sample households selected for
schedule 16, a sub-sample of 1 household on an average was selected lin­
ear systematically with interval 2 and a random start 1 or 2, and the next
household in the frame was surveyed for schedule 17 (the actual sample
household for schedule 17 thus did not belong to the total of 22 house­
holds referred to earlier); in the remaining 20 households, schedule 12 was
canvassed.
The following methods were used for selecting the sample of clusters or
plots in the sample villages:
1. Suppose the sample village was cadastrally surveyed and a village
map showing the location and boundaries of the plots was available
without much trouble. Then clusters of size 10 (i.e. of 10 plots each)
were formed by combining plots with major survey numbers 1-10, 11-
20, 21-30, etc., and similarly clusters of size 5 were groups of major
survey numbers, 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, etc. Then 4 clusters of 5
plots each were selected in villages meant for land utilization only
and 6 clusters of 10 plots each were selected in sample villages meant
for both acreage and yield-rate surveys. The actual procedure of
selection was as follows:
Suppose N is the highest survey number in a village/hamlet-group;
n the number of clusters to be selected; c the cluster size = 5 or 10;
and N' is N increased as little as possible to become a multiple of
cluster size c.
Then n plots, known as “basic plots”, were selected circular system­
atically with interval I and random start R where I = (N1 /n) and
I < R < N. Next, clusters were formed around the selected basic
plots, e.g. if the basic plot with survey number 472 was selected,
the corresponding sample cluster was taken as a group of plots with
survey numbers 471-480 and 471-475 for c = 10 and 5 respectively.
2. Suppose the village map was not available but a list of all plots in
the village was available. In this case, all the plots in the village
were first given a continuous sampling serial number. The selection
of basic plots and formation of clusters around them were exactly the
same as in method 1 with the only difference that survey numbers
were replaced by sampling serial numbers.
3. In case neither the village map nor the list of plots was available, plots
were selected indirectly through a sample of households. A sample of
4 to 6 households was selected systematically depending on whether
550 Appendix V

the village was meant for just acreage survey or both acreage and
yield-rate surveys. All the plots possessed by these sample households
within a 5 mile radius of the sample village were taken up for survey.

Self-weighting sample. The sample was made self-weighting with

respect to the unbiased estimator of the state total of a study variable of
the household inquiries in the following manner.
The following notations are used for a state

h: subscript for a stratum

i: subscript for a village
j: subscript for a household
L: total number of strata
nh- number of sample villages in any sub-sample of the /zth
stratum (n^ = 6)
Zh- total size of the hth stratum (Zh = Zo, as the strata were of
equal size)
Zhi'. size of the zth sample village in the hth stratum
Dhi '- number of hamlet-groups formed in the hith sample village
(Dhi = 1, if the whole village was surveyed)
Z/t,: interval for selecting the combined sample in the hith sample
village
mhi '. number of households in the combined sample in the
hith sample village
yhij'- value of the study variable for the Jth sample household in
the hith sample village (j = 1,2,... ,mhi)
Y: total value of the study variable for the state

From estimating equations (21.15), (21.17) and (21.18), an unbiased

estimator of Y, based on any sub-sample is given by
L . 6 „ mh,
y = 52 ft 52 7^ Dhi Ihi 52yhlJ
h=l i—1 ;=1
L 6 mh,
52 52 52(A51)
h i j

where
- Z° nr
6 zhi
is the multiplier for yhij- The objective is to make Whij a constant, wo,
within a state. Now Zh = Zhi (sum over i) = Zq is the same for all the
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 551

strata within a state, and the values of Zhi and Dhi are already determined
by the village populations. So the only item that can be properly chosen
so as to equalize all the Whij values is I hi', i.e.

_ 6w0 Zhi
(A5.2)
hi~ ZQ Dhi

which determines the interval for selecting the combined sample in a sample
village, when the value of the multiplier wo is fixed.
The unbiased estimator y then becomes
L 6 mhl

yy^ (A5.3)
h i j

The next problem is to find an appropriate wq that will ensure the

desired sample size in terms of households. From equation (A5.3) putting
yhij = 1, the estimated total number of households in the state is

L 6
m = ^2 ^mhi
= wq x number of sample hh per ss in the state (A5.4)

(hh and ss denoting households and sub-sample respectively).

To be more precise about the value of wo, we can replace y by its true
value Y, and write

Wo (total number of hh in the state)/(number of sample hh per sub-

sample in the state)
reciprocal of the overall sampling fraction (A5.5)

Now, the number of sample households per sub-sample in the state

= nmo, where n is the number of sample villages (in any sub-sample) for
the state and mo the average number of households planned to be selected
per sample village. In this particular case, n = 6L and mo = 22. The true
total number of households at the mid-point of the survey period, i.e. on
1 January 1965, is of course unknown; it is replaced by y obtained by first
projecting the rural population of the state from the 1961 Census (and the
values of the previous NSS rounds) and then dividing that by the average
household size (obtained also from the previous NSS rounds). Thus wo
finally works out as

wo = y'/nm0 = y'/132 L (A5.6)

552 Appendix V

First, wo is to be obtained from equation (A5.6) for each state, and then
the values of Ihi are determined from equation (A5.2) for a sample village,
noting that the factor ^wq/Zq is the same for all the sample villages in a
state.
When, as in most cases, Ihi as computed was a fraction, it was rounded
off in the randomized manner, as described in note 3 to section 12.3. The
rounded off (integer) values of Ihi were given to the enumerators.
The intervals obtained by equation (A5.2) ensured that the total sample
size (number of households) in the state would be near the desired value
nmo — 132 L, but they do not ensure anything for the individual sample
villages. Some enumerators were allotted too many big villages, and as
each enumerator had to survey 12 sample villages, the total sample size
for them was much larger than the planned figure of 12 x 22 households.
In such cases, to provide relief to the enumerators, they were allowed to
survey a smaller number of sample households than was strictly required
for a self-weighting design: the shortfall was made good at the scrutiny
stage by repeating some of the filled-in schedules.
Once the design was made self-weighting for the combined sample, it
became automatically so for individual household inquiries, for constant
fractions of the combined sample households were surveyed for each of these
inquiries in all the sample villages.

Estimating procedures. With the same notation as for the rural

sector, the unbiased estimators for the state totals of study variables were
as follows.
Schedule 0.1 (complete enumeration of the households in the sample
village or the selected hamlet-group):

(A5.7)

where Iq = Zq/6.
Schedules 10.1, 12, 16, and 17:
L 6 rn, j

y = yhii (A5.8)
h i j

where wq is the constant multiplier for the corresponding schedule.

Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 553

Information on fertility history was collected for one-fifth of the

sample households for Schedule 12; the constant multiplier for such in­
formation was therefore 5wo, where wo was the constant multiplier for
Schedule 12.
Schedule 3.01: An estimator of the average price P of a commodity
was
nl
p = ^2yi/n' (A5.9)
i=i

where n' is the number of reporting villages in the state and the sub-sample
considered.
In the urban sector, as there were 2 strata in each state (i.e. L = 2),
the unbiased estimators took the following form:
Schedule 0.2:

= (A5.10)
/1=1 1=1 hl

where Ih = Zh/nh.
Schedules 10, 12, 16, and 17:
2 nh mht
y = ^2wh^2^yhij (A5.ll)
71 = 1 i= l j= l

where is the constant multiplier for a schedule in the /ith stratum.

For crop surveys, an unbiased estimator of the acreage under a par­
ticular cereal crop in a season from a sub-sample in a state was
L
<> = £>,, (A5.12)

where

_ t ^hi M'hj /A r .
aj — 7 / >Q/t»j (A5.13)
^Zhi mhi

where M'hl is the adjusted highest survey number/sampling serial number

(method 1 or 2) or total number of households (method 3) in the ¿th sample
village of the /ith stratum, mhi is the number of sample plots or households
554 Appendix V

planned for survey, and ahij is the area under the specified cereal crop for
the jth sample plot or in all plots of the jth sample household in the ith
sample village.
An estimator of the yield rate (Schedule 5.1) for a cereal crop in a
season from sub-sample 1 or 2 is given by

where ah is given by equation (A5.13), and yh is the simple average of the

yield rates over the crop-cuts taken for the crop in the /ith stratum; the
summation £2 extends over all strata reporting crop-cutting experiments.
The yield rates were obtained on the basis of the sample cuts of radius 4';
the yields of all the plants inside the circle together with half the yield of
the border plants of the 4' circle constituted the yield of a cut.
While calculating the production estimates, the estimate of yield rate
for sub-sample 1 was multiplied by the corresponding area estimate, pooled
over sub-samples 1 and 3, and the estimate of yield rate for sub-sample 2
was multiplied by the corresponding area estimate, pooled over sub-samples
2 and 4. Thus two independent estimates y\ and y2 of total production were
obtained. For obtaining the dry weights, these two production estimates
were multiplied by the driage factors based on sub-samples 1 and 2 respec­
tively. The driage factor was obtained on the basis of the sample cuts of
radius 2'3Z/, including the full border. If d and g were the weights of dry
crop and green crop respectively, the driage factor was given by ^d/^g,
where £2 denotes summation over all cuts taken on that crop in all strata.
For paddy crop, the production figure related to “clean rice” and for this
the figure for dry paddy was multiplied by 0.662.

Substitution of casualties. For socioeconomic inquiries, all casualty

households, villages and blocks were substituted. Similarly for crop survey,
all casualty plots/clusters/households/villages were substituted by the pre­
viously surveyed corresponding units in the same sub-sample and stratum.

Combined estimators. If j// (Z = 1, 2, 3, 4) is the /th sub-sample

estimator of the state total of a study variable, the combined estimator was

1 1
= 4 + i/2 + 2/3 + 2/4) = (yh 1 + dh2 + Uh3 + 2/h4) (A5.15)
/1=1

where yhi is the /th sub-sample estimator of the /ith stratum total.
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 555

The ratio R = Y/X was estimated by r/ = yi/xi from the /th sub-sample
and the combined estimator of R was
r _ yo _ yi + 3/2 + y3 + 3/4
(A5.16)
xq Zi + a?2 + x3 + x4
The combined estimator of the area under a crop was similarly the mean
of the four sub-sample estimates. The combined production estimator yo for
a season is the mean of the two production estimators y\ and 7/2 • Whenever
season-wise total crop estimates were obtained, the estimate for the year
was the sum of the season-wise estimates.

Variance estimators (see also section 25.6.5). Two unbiased variance

estimators of yo are

= 72 52 E(^-^)2 (A5.17)
h = l i=l
and

Syo = ^2 ~ (A5.18)

where
Vh ~ 4 52 yhl

s'2 is easier to compute but less efficient than s2 . Unbiased variance

estimators of the acreage estimator a in equation (A5.12) are obtained
similarly.
Two variance estimators of r are

52 52 i(yhi ~y^2 + r2txhi - xh)2 - Myhi - yh)(xhi - ^)]

h I
and
s'r = 52(r/ -r)2
i
the latter being easier to compute but less efficient than the former.
A variance estimator of the combined production estimator z/o is
| (2/1 - 2/2)2
556 Appendix V

A5.9 Pilot inquiries and pre-tests

The previous 18 rounds, covering the period 1950-64, acted as pilot in­
quiries, the results of which were used to design the sample for the 19th
round effectively, including information on the variability and the cost. In
addition, special tryouts were organized for new schedules introduced in
this survey.

A5.10 Selection and training of enumerators

The type of enumerators has been mentioned in paragraph A5.4. The train­
ing of enumerators was done in two phases, the supervisors being trained
by the technical staff and in their turn training the enumerators (section
26.15).

A5.ll Processing of data

The schedules were first scrutinized by the field supervisors and then by
the technical staff of the Indian Statistical Institute. Queries of a technical
nature from the field were answered by the technical staff.
The edited information was put into punch cards and the final tabulation
done by mechanical processing. Electronic processing is also resorted to for
special computations and analysis.

A5.12 Some results

Some results of the survey obtained from the central sample are given in
Table A5.2. The coefficients of variation of the estimates are seen to be
reasonably small.

Further reading
Full details of the survey methods of the Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-
65, are given by Roy and Bhattacharyya; Murthy (1967) gives in Chapter 15 the
survey methods of the Indian National Sample Survey, 1958-9, and in Chapter
16 those of the Family Living Survey in urban areas of India, 1958-8, the
latter from Chinappa (1963).
The following are references to some readily available case studies:
Agricultural surveys: (a) in India conducted by the Indian Statistical Insti­
tute: Mahalanobis (1940, 1944, 1946a, 1968); (b) in India conducted by
the Indian Council of Agricultural Research: Panse and Sukhatme, and
Sukhatme and Panse; (c) Surveys of Fertilizer Practice in England and
Wales: Yates.
Case Study: Indian National Sample Survey, 1964-5 557

Auditing and accounting: Trueblood and Cyert.

Demographic surveys: (a) in Greece: Deming (1950), Chapter 12; (b) in In­
dia: Som et al. (1961), Mahalanobis (1966), and Office of the Registrar-
General, Sample Registration of Births and Deaths in India: Rural 1965-68-,
(c) in Pakistan: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Report of
the Population Growth Estimation Experiment; (d) in Trinidad and Tobago:
Harewood; (e) in the U.S.: the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1963b), Tech­
nical Paper No. 1 (summarized in Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. I, Chapter
12, and in Kish (1965), section 10.4).
Demographic and health surveys: reports by Demographic and Health Sur­
veys, Macro International (see Appendix VI).
Employment and unemployment surveys of Greece, 1962: Raj,
Appendix I.
Family planning surveys: Ascâdi, Klinger and Szabady (1969, 1970); and re­
ports of surveys mentioned in Appendix VI.
Fertility surveys: reports by World Fertility Survey (see Appendix VI).
Health surveys: Som, De and Das (1961) and Das (1969) for mobidity studies
in India through the Indian NSS; Harris (1949) for the Canadian Sickness
Survey, 1950-51; Krupka et al. (1968) for the sampling studies on trachoma
in Southern Morocco; and U.S. NCHS (1963) for the U.S. National Health
Survey.
Inventory surveys: Deming (1950), Chapter 11, and (1960), Chapters 6-8.
Chapter 11.
Marketing research survey in Great Britain, 1952: Moser and Kalton,
Chapter 8.
Road/rail traffic surveys: Dillman (1978); Frey; Kish et al. (1961); Rosander.
Sample surveys in Sweden : Dalenius (1957).
Sexuality surveys: Laumann et al.
Social surveys in Great Britain: Gray and Corlett; Moser and Kalton.
Surveys of retail stores and annual survey of manufactures in the
U.S.: Hansen et al. (1953), Vol. I, Chapter 12.
Telephone survey methods: Lavrakas (1993).
Hansen et al. (1953) also provide case studies of the following in the U.S.: the
Current Population Survey; some variances and covariances for cluster sample of
persons and dwelling units; and the sample verification and quality control in the
1950 Population Census.
Slonim in Chapter 17 gives a simple account of a large number of sample sur­
veys. Sudman in Chapter 1 gives brief descriptions of the following sample sur­
veys in the U.S.A.: The Current Population Survey, Equality of Educational
Opportunity (The Coleman Report), Supplemental Studies for the National Ad­
visory Commission on Civil Disorders (The Kerner Commission), the Education
558 Appendix V

of Catholic Americans, the Gallup Poll, Public Perception of the Illinois Legis­
lature, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) Election Study, the Detroit
Area Study, and Unfunded Doctoral Dissertation Research.

Table A5.2: Some estimates from the Indian National Sample Survey, 19th
round, July 1964-June 1965

Item Estimate CV(%) No. of No. of

villages/ house­
urban holds
blocks

1. Rural India: (a) Birth rate 37.0/1000 0.75 8472 169,440

(b) Death rate 13.0/1000 1.49 8472 169,440

2. Urban India: (a) Birth rate 31.9/1000 1.13 4572 91,440

(b) Death rate 8.0/1000 1.69 4572 91,440

3. Total monthly consumer

expenditure in the urban
sector in some states:

(a) Andhra Pradesh Rs. 208 million 6.20 384 768

(b) Gujerat Rs. 163 million 2.40 192 384

(c) Rajasthan Rs. Ill million 6.68 216 432

(d) West Bengal Rs. 329 million 6.28 432 564

Source: Courtesy of Indian Statistical Institute, National Sample Survey

Department, 1970.
APPENDIX VI

Multi-country Survey Programs

A6.1 Introduction

An important development in sample survey operations since the early

1970s has been the launching of coordinated multi-country survey pro­
grams, sponsored by the United Nations and its agencies or by donor gov­
ernment agencies, primarily the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), or by both. In a multi-country survey program, a
number of major issues arise that do not arise in individual country pro­
grams; it is thus more than the sum of its component country programs.
In section A6.2 of this appendix we shall briefly review these issues
and shall illustrate them from the major multi-country survey programs
in socioeconomic and health areas. The survey programs themselves are
summarized in Section A6.3.

A6.2 Major issues in multi-country survey programs

A6.2.1 Principal objectives

Two sets of principal objectives in multi-country survey programs are often
cited:

(a) To assist countries in acquiring survey-based information that would

permit them to describe and interpret the topics under study in a
coordinated program with inter-country comparability.

(b) To help in building national capabilities in household surveys through

technology-transfer.

To attain the first objectives, survey programs should be designed to en­

sure a continuing flow of up-to-date and accurate data to be used together
with data from other sources to meet national needs. The data requirement

559
560 Appendix VI

could, for example, relate to the current rate of population growth, agricul­
tural production (yields of different crops), employment and unemployment
rates, etc.
To attain the second objective, the survey programs should be so de­
signed as to build up national capacities for the different aspects of survey
sampling, of which training is an important element; and training, by its
very nature, takes a little time to produce results.
Some survey programs tend to emphasize the attainment of one objec­
tive over the other. For example, in one developing country that partici­
pated in the National Household Capability Program (NHSCP, sponsored
by the U.N. and its agencies), two U.N. agencies funded two separate sur­
veys, conducted one after the other, the donor agency for the second sur­
vey declined to continue the data processing expert recruited by the donor
agency for the first survey but fielded its own expert; moreover, the com­
puter equipment brought in by the second donor was incompatible with the
previous set: thus, the input of one agency did not mesh with that of the
other, resulting in a less significant contribution towards the enhancement of
the data processing capabilities of the recipient country (deGraft-Johnson,
1993, para. 17).
In other international survey programs too, the objective of augmenting
national survey capability is often ignored when it comes into conflict with
the competing objective of “getting out the data”; “for example, a number
of countries had their survey results [of inter-country survey programs other
than NHSCP] processed outside the country because of technical difficul­
ties within the countries” (op. cit., para. 18). In the World Fertility Survey
(WFS), country reports (including the first results and the sampling errors
of major items), were prepared in the participating countries, but detailed
country analysis and inter-country comparative analysis, based on com­
puter data tapes of the survey results, were made by the WFS secretariat,
the U.N. Secretariat, and a number of universities and research institutions,
mostly in developed countries: such a procedure does not fully contribute
to the capacity-building in the developing countries.
It also became clear that unless multi-country survey programs are made
product-oriented (in terms of obtaining results and analysis in a standard­
ized time-frame), the objective of strengthening the process (of surveys
themselves) cannot be achieved easily. Capacity-building will not flourish
unless data are delivered in a timely manner; a survey that is well designed
and well executed and which furnishes the required data and analysis as
input to national planning can well be self-sustaining. Nothing succeeds
like success.
Technical cooperation with United Nations and its agencies and other
bilateral and multilateral organizations has resulted in the transfer of
Multi-country Survey Programs 561

technology of survey practices to co-operating countries that were not

otherwise readily available to them. Of special interest is the transfer of Per­
sonal Computer (PC) technology. Most of the countries of the third world
do not have the critical mass, in terms of human and physical resources,
to produce PCs or computer software. However, among these countries,
those that received technical assistance from the U.N. and its agencies or
bilateral organizations have reaped benefits not generally enjoyed by oth­
ers that did not participate in multi-country survey programs and have, in
the short run at least, leapfrogged a developing country such as India that
has both a tradition of survey technology and are producing computers -
mainframe, mini, and PCs. Countries like Viet Nam and Bhutan have, by
now, established computer support centers that are assembling PCs or de­
veloping software, and others, such as Algeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Uganda,
and Mexico, are now providing experts to other developing countries.

A6.2.2 Funding
External funding for the survey program for a country follows two routes:

(1) Funding is guaranteed by the funding agencies for the multi-country

survey program, the headquarters of which then invites some se­
lected countries to participate in the programs: this was the case
with WFS, DHS (Demographic and Health Surveys), and the World
Bank’s LSMS (Living Standards Measurement Study).
(2) Sponsoring agencies provide core funding for a multi-country pro­
gram’s headquarters but the extent and timing of external funding
for national surveys are not guaranteed; the headquarters of the pro­
gram approaches a number of countries to participate in its programs,
and then jointly submit a country project proposal for funding to po­
tential donor agencies: this was the case with the U.N.’s NHSCP and
the World Bank’s SDA (Social Dimensions of Adjustment) Program.

Absent a guarantee from donor agencies for national surveys, the second
approach inevitably results in delays and other problems in implementing
survey programs. The problems are compounded by the data needs of
a particular country not meshing with a donor organization’s mandate,
priority and interests.

A6.2.3 Management
Different survey programs adopt different systems of in-country project
management. In the NHSCP, it was observed that in general, projects with
externally recruited Chief Technical Advisers did much better than those
562 Appendix VI

managed by nationals - a prescription that runs counter to the objective

of national capability building (deGraft-Johnson, 1993, para. 92).
In order to get the program a higher degree of priority within national of­
fices and to attract qualified staff, incentive payments are sometimes made
to them, but that leads to internal disparities. A better solution would
be to give training in project management to the national staff, and to
associate them and the technical staff in publications. Cases are not un­
common where computing and printing equipment was acquired but no one
had been trained to operate it. This calls for installing project manage­
ment software, such as TimeLine/DOS (by Symantec Corporation) and
Project/WIN (by Microsoft Corporation).

A6.2.4 Inter-country data comparability

In survey programs sponsored or supported by the United Nations family
of agencies and by other multilateral or bilateral organizations, emphasis is
given rightly on the importance of producing data and estimates that are
comparable across a wide range of countries. This should be also of interest
to the participating countries themselves.
At the same time, it should be axiomatic that data should be collected
and analytical findings interpreted in a culture-specific context - a truism
that is generally self-evident in nationally sponsored survey programs, but
one that tends to be less focused in an externally sponsored multi-country
survey program with set questionnaires.
Programs, such as NHSCP, have flexible frameworks to meet national
needs - their first priority and cannot always provide detailed inter­
country comparability of data, that other programs, such as WFS and
DHS, with generally fixed frameworks do.
But some surveys in the developed countries do not always adopt full
standardization: to wit, the “Labour Force Surveys in the European Com­
munity are standardized in terms of the variables generated, sample size,
and survey timing; but not as concerns the design of questionnaires and
other aspects of data collection methodology. ... Moreover, several of the
Family Budget Surveys [of the European Community] suffer from the seri­
ous problems of non-probability sampling and high rates of non-response”
(Verma, 1992).
A survey program with a rigid framework cannot adapt the survey pro­
cedures to different cultural settings. To take an example, in parts of the
Indian sub-continent, young branches of the “neem” (Melia Azadirachta)
tree, that are astringent and believed to have medicinal properties (tooth­
pastes made of “neem” extracts are sold in specialty pharmacies in the
U.S.), are used by many to clean their teeth: one cannot conclude that just
Multi-country Survey Programs 563

because they are not using “modern” toothbrush and toothpaste that they
are not taking care of oral hygiene. To cite another example, some surveys
include a topic on pre-natal care of mothers, specifically asking questions
on whether any vitamin or milk was taken; when the answers are in the
negative, the conclusion is drawn that there was no pre-natal care. But in
several segments of population in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and
India (and no doubt in many other countries), pregnant women in rural
and small urban areas follow traditional practices of ingesting items such
as dried yogurt, roasted chick peas (kurut and nakhod respectively in the
local language in Afghanistan), and special red clay that are rich in calcium
or protein: the body knows what is good for it. But questions on such in­
digenous pre-natal care are seldom asked in multi-country surveys with set
questionnaires.
The suggestion is that while maintaining a standard set of questions on
any topic, local variations should be allowed to supplement the set ques­
tions.
It may also be observed, as an aside, that the tradition of indigenous
pre-natal and post-natal care of mothers in developing countries is being
swamped by the spreading waves of urbanization and industrialization (and
extended family norms giving way to nuclear family norms), without an
increase, pari passu, in attendant community health care - a price that has
par force to be paid for progress until such a time that a health network
covers the entire population. The argument, raised in connection with
the environmental damages resulting from some capital-intensive projects
for which the World Bank provides loans, therefore, remains moot: “the
fundamental problem of modernity may be that development pursued as
an absolute goal is nihilistic” (Rich, 1994).

A6.2.5 Sampling and non-sampling errors

For over 45 years, the United Nations has been exhorting countries to make
the evaluation of survey results an integral part of their survey programs
(see section 26.18.2 of this book). The computation of sampling errors and
study of non-sampling errors constitute such an evaluation; by now, the
computation of sampling errors has been standardized (aided more recently
by computer software: see Chapter 27) and great strides have been made
in the study of non-sampling errors (see Chapter 25).
But not all multi-country (or, for that matter, national) survey pro­
grams, including the U.N.-sponsored NHSCP and GCHS (Gulf Child Health
Survey) programs and World Bank-sponsored programs, follow the U.N.
dictum, an irony that compounds itself by the fact that the NHSCP it­
self had published a study on non-sampling errors over twelve years ago
564 Appendix VI

(United Nations, 1982b) and has recently published another study on the
computation of sampling variance (U.N., 1993a); however, UN-supported
Pan Arab Child Health Program has plans to calculate sampling errors for
the major items (see Section A6.3.8 later in the appendix).
To their credit, WFS and DHS with their strong central management
had made mandatory the procedures for computing sampling variance (for
the major items) and indications of non-sampling errors in surveys con­
ducted under their auspices. Some studies of the sampling and non-sampling
errors have also been undertaken for the Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys
(see Section A6.3.2).
However, of the 20 European countries that had executed their own
WFS-type of fertility surveys, without financial or technical assistance from
the WFS secretariat, a number used non-probability samples, and even
among those that had adopted probability sampling, none computed sam­
pling errors (Kish, 1994).

A6.2.6 Coordination among multi-country programs

Co-ordination among different multi-country programs, even those spon­
sored by the U.N. and its agencies, is essential but cannot, unfortunately,
always be taken as granted.
In the cooperating countries, the implementation of a survey project
becomes the responsibility of the concerned line ministries, e.g., the min­
istry of health for a health survey or a survey on children (if sponsored by
UNICEF, the United Nations Children’s Fund), or the ministry of plan­
ning (under which national statistical offices are generally located) for a
household or demographic survey. Generally, a coordinating machinery is
available, being located in the planning office to minimize overlap and to
fill in gaps left by different survey programs. Such coordinating units may
not always be administratively and technically strong enough to ensure the
desired objectives, or to take a not so trivial a case, to ensure compatibility
between computer equipment provided by different external agencies (see
section A6.2.1 above).
Ad hoc committees of potential data users and of technical personnel
both from the government organizations and the non- or quasi-governmental
sectors (such as the private sector, universities, and research institutions)
have proved successful in many a country to achieve the needed in-country
coordination.
Coordination becomes difficult when programs such as World Bank’s
SDA promote special purpose surveys, using small samples ostensibly to
provide indicators of current change at national level (a procedure that can­
not be technically supported), while other programs such as U.N.’s NHSCP
Multi-country Survey Programs 565

promotes multi-purpose surveys, with large samples to provide national and

sub-national reliable estimates.

A6.2.7 Technical cooperation among developing countries

Multi-country survey programs should seek to encourage technical coop­
eration among developing countries. As examples, NHSCP sponsored, in
India, the training and exchange experiences of statisticians from develop­
ing countries, and DHS arranges regional training courses and seminars.

A6.3 Some multi-country survey programs

A6.3.1 World Fertility Survey

The World Fertility Survey (WFS) was sponsored by the United Nations
Population Fund (UNFPA) and the U.S. Agency for International Devel­
opment (USAID), with additional contribution provided, among others, by
the governments of the U.K., France, Japan, the Netherlands, and the Inter­
national Development Research Center of Canada. It was executed by the
International Statistical Institute in collaboration with the International
Union for the Scientific Study of Population and the U.N.; the surveys
were implemented in participating countries by relevant government agen­
cies. WFS secretariat was based in London, U.K. WFS was conceptualized
in 1971 and was concluded in 1984.
Under WFS auspices, fertility surveys were conducted in 42 develop­
ing countries/territories in all the world regions. External assistance was
$250,000 per country on an average.
In the participating countries, standardized core and optional question­
naire modules were used that permitted international comparison of data.
The household schedules covered topics such as age, sex and marital sta­
tus of household members and the individual questionnaire (for women)
included detailed information on maternity and marriage histories, contra­
ceptive knowledge and use, and fertility regulation.
The sample design was stratified multi-stage. The strata were geograph­
ical sub-divisions of a country. Area units, for which a sampling frame was
available, and whose boundaries were reasonably well defined and whose
individual population sizes were as small as possible were termed “basic
area units” (bau’s). In each selected ultimate area units, all the occu­
pied dwellings (or households) were listed, from which a sample of enough
dwellings (or households) were selected so as to yield an expected sample
of between 20 and 50 “eligible” women (eligibility being determined by age
and marital status); the probability of selection at that stage was such as to
give a self-weighting design. The sample comprised, on an average, 10,000
566 Appendix VI

households from whom household information was obtained and 5,000 “el­
igible” women for whom detailed fertility particulars were recorded.
For processing and analyzing survey data, WFS adapted available com­
puter software and evolved new ones, including “CLUSTERS”, for com­
puting sampling variances. In case where there was only one first-stage
unit (fsu) in a stratum, as in the Kenyan Fertility Survey, some strata were
collapsed to provide two or more fsu’s in the re-constituted stratum (see
section 24.8 of this book).
For additional information on WFS, copies of publications and data
files, contact International Statistical Institute, P.O. Box 950, 2270 AZ
Voorburg, Netherlands.

A6.3.2 Contraceptive Prevalence/Family Planning Surveys

Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPS) were sponsored by the US­
AID to provide the rapid feedback necessary to evaluate and improve fam­
ily planning information and service delivery programs. The project was
awarded in 1977 to Westinghouse Public Applied Systems; it was concluded
in 1985. CPS surveys were in operation in 43 countries/territories in all
the world regions.
Essentially, the surveys were stratified, multi-stage household samples
of women of childbearing age in a national or state population. A sample
of households was first selected, using an existing sampling frame, where
available. The number of households sampled ranged from 3,000 in the
Pernambuco State in Brazil to 20,000 in South Korea. Approximately equal
numbers of households were selected in two or three residence strata - urban
areas and rural areas, or the capital city, other urban areas, and rural areas.
Roughly two-thirds of the sample households included at least one woman
of child-bearing age, out of whom one respondent was selected for interview
in each household.
Response rate was quite high, averaging 92 percent. The data were
entered on computer tapes. As the questionnaire was short and relatively
simple, usually taking 20 minutes to be completed, preliminary results could
be produced within four to six months of the completion of the field work
{Population Reports, 1981). Sampling errors were computed following stan­
dard methods.
In addition to CPS, another USAID-supported study, previously called
Maternal-Child Health/Family Planning Surveys and now called Family
Planning Surveys (FPS), also started in 1975 to collect data on the
use and source of contraceptives, and information to plan and evaluate
family planning programs. This continuing study is executed by the United
States Centers for Disease Control. As of 31 December 1992, FPS surveys
Multi-country Survey Programs 567

were, or are being, conducted in 16 countries in Africa, Latin America, the

Caribbean, Western Asia, and Europe (Population Reports, 1981, 1985, and
1992).
Data collected In Brazil, El Salvador, and Paraguay revealed that the
non-respondents were younger and had fewer children for their age than
respondents, who were more likely to be at home and thus available for
interview, perhaps because they had no outside jobs or had children to care
for: CPS results may then slightly overestimate fertility and underestimate
contraceptive use (Population Reports, Series M, No. 5, May-June 1981,
citing Anderson, 1979).
For more information on CPS and FPS, their publications and data files,
contact: Division of Reproductive Health, Center for Health Promotion and
Education, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, Georgia, 30333, USA. CPS
and FPS data are also archived by DHS (see the next section).

A6.3.3 Demographic and Health Surveys

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) is a worldwide program of
surveys that was started in 1984 intended to obtain data on reproduction
and fertility preferences, contraception, infant mortality and morbidity and
health (particularly of infants, children, and mothers) and related issues.
Between 1985 and 1992, forty-eight DHS surveys had been conducted in 48
countries in the different world regions.
DHS is sponsored by the USAID, executed by Macro International (pre­
viously, Westinghouse’s Institute for Resource Development), and imple­
mented in participating countries by government agencies. The external
assistance is US$200,000-500,000 per survey.
DHS uses stratified, multi-stage sample designs. Suitably chosen ge­
ographical subdivisions of a country constitute the strata; Census Enu­
meration Districts (ED’s) comprise the first-stage units and “segments” of
standard size, 500 census persons, the second- stage units. Every census
ED, usually containing 1,000-2,000 persons, is assigned a measure of size
equal to the number of standard segments it contains, by dividing its census
population by 500 and rounding to the nearest whole number. A sample
of EDs is then selected with probability proportional to this measure of
size. In the selected EDs, a mapping operation is carried out to create
the designated number of segments and one of these is selected with equal
probability. In the selected segments, all dwellings or households are listed,
and a fixed fraction of them are selected by systematic sampling. In the
selected households, a roster is completed to identify women aged 15-49
and all of these are interviewed. The DHS program is designed to provide
samples of 5,000 to 6,000 women aged 15-49 years (For details and discus­
568 Appendix VI

sion of issues, see DHS Sampling Manual and the articles by Aliaga and
Verma (1991) and by Than Le (1993)).
For data processing, including computing sampling variances, DHS de­
veloped the software package, “ISSA” (see Section 27.10.3 of this book).
An experiment was conducted in the DHS of Guatemala for interactive
processing of data (Ochoa et al.).
For copies of DHS publications and data files, contact Macro Interna-
tional/Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300,
Calverton, Maryland, 20705-3119, U.S.A, phone: 01-301-572-0000; fax: 01-
301-572-0999.

A6.3.4 National Household Survey Capability Program

The National Household Survey Capability Program (NHSCP) is sponsored
and executed by the U.N. and implemented in participating countries by
respective government agencies, with external funding provided by U.N.
Development Program (UNDP), UNFPA, World Bank, UNICEF, and a
number of donor countries, such as the USA, Canada, and Sweden; technical
assistance is also being provided by countries such as India for training in
household surveys.
The objectives of NHSCP are to assist countries through a systematic
program to collect, process, analyze and disseminate integrated data on
the household and its members for use in development plans, policies, ad­
ministration and research; and to help in building national capabilities in
household surveys.
NHSCP survey designs are country-specific and flexible in subject cov­
erage and sample design. In general, the sample designs are stratified (with
geographical stratification, based on administrative units in a country) and
multi-stage, the sample households being selected from a listing of all the
households in the selected penultimate-stage unit. The sample size varied
in accordance with the measurement objectives of the survey; it ranged
from 2,000 to 40,000, the modal sample size being 20,000 households.
The topics of study include agriculture, household budgets, income and
expenditure, demography, family planning, health, nutrition, migration,
labor force, and energy consumption. Samples for selected topics, in par­
ticular countries, are often chosen as sub-samples from an existing master
sample of households.
By the end of 1992, NHSCP had supported the development of house­
hold survey programs in 50 countries in the different world regions.
For processing the survey data, mainframes, or increasingly personal
computers, are used, adapting available software such as CONCOR, RE-
DATAM, DBase, and ISSA (see chapter 27). A study on non-sampling
Multi-country Survey Programs 569

errors in household surveys had been published in 1982 (UN, 1982b) and
another study made on the computation of sampling errors (UN, 1993a),
but computation of sampling errors and indications of non-sampling errors
are not mandatory for the program.
For copies of publications and other information, contact Director, Sta­
tistical Division, United Nations, New York, New York, 10017, U.S.A.;
phone: 01-212-963-4996; fax: 01-212-963-9851.

A6.3.5 The Living Standards Measurement Study

The Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) was initiated by the
World Bank as an effort to capture the many dimensions of living condi­
tions using integrated, multi-topic, household surveys, with a strong exper­
imental and research orientation.
Between 1985 and 1992, LSMS surveys were conducted in eleven coun­
tries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
One special feature of LSMS was the decentralization of data processing.
Data processing units (with microcomputers) were set up in the field and
batches of completed questionnaires were sent to these units for editing.
Questionnaires with errors were then sent back to the field for checking
and corrections. Soon after enumeration, fully edited responses in machine-
readable form were thus available for final tabulations. This editing was,
however, restricted only for sections of the questionnaire covered in the first
interviewing round.
For copies of publications and other information, contact World Bank,
1818 H Street N.W., Washington D.C., 20233, U.S.A.

A6.3.6 The Social Dimensions of Adjustment Program

The Social Dimension of Adjustment (SDA) Program was launched in 1987
by the UNDP Regional Program for Africa, the African Development Bank,
and the World Bank in collaboration with other multilateral and bilateral
agencies, with the objective of strengthening the capacity of governments in
the Sub-Saharan African region to integrate social dimensions in the design
of their structural adjustment programs.
The standard SDA survey uses a stratified two-stage sample design.
Census enumeration areas (ea’s) constitute the first stage units, ea’s with
very large ea’s being split and very small ea’s being combined. The result­
ing ea’s (clusters) are then stratified and a sample of clusters is selected
systematically with pps within the strata, all the households in the selected
clusters listed, and finally a fixed number of sample households selected in
each selected cluster. The normal sample size is 3,000-4,000 households.
570 Appendix VI

The survey data are processed using either commercial software, such
as SAS-PC and SPSS, or software specifically developed, such as IMPS or
ISSA (see Chapter 27).
Since the inception of the SDA program, 30 countries have received
or have requested, assistance to establish national SDA programs, and of
these, 20 now have on-going programs. For copies of publications and other
information, contact World Bank, 1818 H Street N.W., Washington D.C.,
20233, U.S.A.

A6.3.7 Gulf Child Health Survey

The Gulf Child Health Survey (GCHS) is a research program implemented
by the Council of Health Ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council States,
sponsored by the Arab Gulf Program for the United Nations Develop­
ment Organizations (AGFUND), and with the collaboration of UNFPA,
UNICEF, and WHO.
GCHS was initiated in 1986 to provide detailed information on the bio­
demographic determinants of maternal and child health in the region that
are required for the evaluation of on-going programs as well as for the
formulation of new health policies and programs. GCHS surveys were con­
ducted in all the seven member-countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council.
GCHS used a stratified multi-stage sampling design, with households as the
ultimate stage units and geographical areas as the other stage units.
The survey included a basic household survey, a maternal care survey
and a child health survey.
For further information on GCHS and copies of publications and in­
formation, contact Director-General, Executive Board, Council of Health
Ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council, Post Box 7431, Riyadh 11462,
Saudi Arabia.

A6.3.8 Pan-Arab Project for Child Development

The Pan-Arab Project for Child Development (PAPCHILD) was initiated
in 1987 with the long-rage objective of undertaking comprehensive surveys
covering aspects of household socio-economic and demographic characteris­
tics, maternal care (including maternal history), child care, and community
characteristics for 14 Arab counties including six least-developed countries.
PAPCHILD is sponsored by the League of Arab States and supported by
the AGFUND, UNFPA, UNICEF, WHO, and the UN. The project is based
at the headquarters of the League of Arab States in Cairo, Egypt. In its
first phase, the project covered six Arab countries; phase II of the program,
through 1996, is now in operation, with surveys planned, or now under
Multi-country Survey Programs 571

way, in three other Arab countries. The average external assistance for a
PAPCHILD survey was US$380,000.
PAPCHILD survey is carried out using a stratified two-stage sample
of households. The prototypical plan contains 300 first-stage units (fsu’s)
and 6,000 households. The 300 fsu’s are “standard segments” derived from
census enumeration districts as the sampling frame. In some countries, re­
sources permitting, the second stage of sampling may be expanded to 18,000
households. Within a selected fsu, a sample of 20 households (second-stage
units, ssu’s) will be selected for interviewing (60 households for countries
opting for 18,000 total sample households). Individual interviews will re­
late to all ever-married women aged under 54 and all children (under 5),
irrespective of whether their mothers were household members.
Survey data are processed and analyzed, adapting available computer
software, such as ISSA (see Section 27.10.3). Sampling errors have been,
or are being, computed for major estimates.
For copies of publications and information, contact: Project Manager,
Pan-Arab Project for Child Development, League of Arab States, 22A Taha
Hussein Street, Cairo, Egypt; phone 202-340-4306; fax: 202-340-1422.

A6.3.9 Expanded Program on Immunization Surveys

In 1977 the World Health Organization’s Expanded Program on Immuniza­
tion (EPI) established the objective of immunizing all children through­
out the world against six major childhood diseases - diphtheria, whooping
cough, tetanus, measles, polio, and tuberculosis. An international effort was
led by UNICEF and WHO to support ministries of health of governments
all over the world, so that their national immunization services reach 80 per
cent of the world’s children against these diseases by 1990, starting from
immunization coverage of 15 per cent in 1980 {Population Reports, 1992).
Towards that end, WHO has developed a methodology for estimating, by
use of relatively quick and inexpensive sample surveys, immunization levels
of children in target areas.
The sample for the EPI surveys comprises 30 sample cluster with seven
children in each cluster, yielding a sample size of 210 children (Levy and
Lemeshow (1991), Section 14.1; also see Lemeshow, Hosner and Klar (1989)
and Lemeshow and Robinson (1985)).
In each selected area (health service district, village, town, or city), a
pps sample of 30 clusters is taken at the first stage, but the procedure of
selection of the second-stage sample of seven children differed from prob­
ability sampling. In the EPI surveys, a “starting household” was first se­
lected; after collecting the required information on eligible subjects in that
household, another household was proceeded to whose front door was phys-
572 Appendix VI

Table A6.1: Estimates and standard errors from some multi-country survey
programs

Item Country Year Survey“ Sample Estimate S.E.C P.E d

QSize
’ b

Children ever born Kenya 1977-8 WFS 8,100 3.896 0.060 1.3
(per woman)
Nepal 1981 CPS 5,880 3.28 0.072 2.2

Proportion of Cameroon 1991 DHS 644 0.406 0.030 7.5

children fully
immunized Jordan 1990 DHS 6,462 0.880 0.009 1.0

Proportion Colombia 1986 DHS 5,331 0.097 0.006 6.1

of currently
pregnant women Mauritania 1990-1 PAP 5,319 0.130 0.010 7.7

Proportion of Korea, 1974 WFS 5,420 0.566 0.009 1.9

women South
ever-used
contraceptives

Source: WFS, CPS, DHS, and PAPCHILD Country Reports.

a CPS = Contraceptive Prevalence Survey; DHS = Demographic and
Health Surveys.
PAP = Pan Arab Child Health Program; WFS = World Fertility
Survey.
b Number of “eligible” (generally, currently married and aged 15-49
years) interviewed.
c S.E. = Standard Error.
d P.E. = Percentage Error = 100 (Standard Error)/(Estimate).
Termed Relative Error in DHS publications.
Multi-country Survey Programs 573

ically closest to the starting household. This procedure of visiting the next
closest households and collecting information on all eligible individuals in
those households continued until the required seven subjects are studied
(For details, see Lemeshow and Stroh, 1988).
About 4,500 EPI surveys had been conducted in 122 countries all through­
out the world between 1978 and 1992.
For obtaining estimates, relating both to children and adults, and their
sampling variances from EPI surveys, a software, COSAS (COvearge Sur­
vey Analysis System), which is now in version 4.3, was developed (Desve,
Havreng, and Brenner, 1991).
Absent the total number of children and the number of persons in the
clusters, EPI surveys cannot be said to have adopted strictly probability
samples in selecting the second-stage sample of 7 children in each of the 30
selected cluster. However, a study with computer simulation models has led
to the conclusion that “the method appears quite useful when used for the
target areas as a whole, but could provide highly unacceptable estimates if
used for particular clusters or subgroups” (Levy and Lemeshow, ibid.).
For further information and copies of publications, contact: EPI Project,
World Health Organization, CH 1211 Geneva-27, Switzerland.

A6.3.10 Some estimates

Estimates relating to fertility, immunization and family planning from the
World Fertility Survey, the Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, the Demo­
graphic and Health Surveys and the Pan Arab Child Health Program, are
given in Table A6.1 for Cameroon, Colombia, Jordan, Kenya, Mauritania,
Nepal, and South Korea.

Further reading
For the World Fertility Survey: see its Final Report and national reports. For the
World Bank sponsored Social Dimensions of Adjustment Surveys in Sub-Saharan
Africa, see Grootaert and Marchant (1991) and Delaine et al. (1992). For other
survey programs, see the references cited in the text. On the medicinal properties
of the “neem” (Melia Azadirachta) tree, referred to in Section A6.2.4, see “From
the Ancient Neem Tree, a New Insecticide,” New York Times, 5 June 1994, p. 49.
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U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (1981). Framework
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References 601

U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS (1993a). Protocol for Pretesting Demographic

Surveys at the Census Bureau. Report of the Pretesting Committee. Wash­
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602 References

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Answers to Exercises

Chapter 2 (page 66)

1. Following Example 2.1, y = 2.91 ± 0.2351 acres per plot; j/q — 291.0 ± 24.5
acres; CV for both, 8.42%.
2. Following Example 2.3, (a) 940, 597± 19,128; the 95% probability limits are
903,106 and 978,088; (b) 12.49±0.254 cattle per farm; the 95% probability
limits are 11.99 and 12.99.
5. Using the method of section 2.13, the number of households possessing
radios is 40 ± 13; the number of persons in these households is 175 ± 60.
6. Follow the methods of section 2.13, and noting that the finite sampling
correction is (1 — /), where f = n/N (N = 175 and n = 60), the estimated
incidence of HIV seroconversion is 0.15 with standard error of 0.038.
8. For (a) using the methods of section 2.9 and considering the sample as
having been drawn with replacement, (i) 25,902 ± 1797; (ii) 6093 ± 650;
(iii) 0.2331 ± 0.01872. Here n = 43, N = 325. For (b) use equation (2.74)
of section 2.13, which gives the standard error of the proportion absent as
0.007224. Here n has to be taken as 3427.
9. Considering the sample as with replacement and following Example 2.2, (a)
2460 ± 175; (b) $47, 880 ± 1215; (c) $18,143 ± 1164; (d) 3.73 ± 0.2657; (e)
$27.49 ±$1.76; (f) $7.38 ± $0,534; (g) $19.46 ± $1,476; (h) 0.3789 ± 0.0758.

Chapter 3 (page 78)

1. y* R = 962, 096 ± 14, 218, CV 1.48%; j/0* = 943, 609 ± 19,188, CV 2.03%.
2. 961,348 ± 12,012, CV 1.25%.
3. 959,620 ± 14,081, CV 1.47%.
4. 957,579 ± 11,349, CV 1.19%.

1 The sign ± after an estimate indicates the estimated standard error of the estimate.

605
606 Answers to Exercises

Chapter 4 (page 89)

1. Following the method of Example 4.1, the estimated total area under wheat
is 9855 ± 238 acres, CV 2.4%.

Chapter 5 (page 112)

1. Using the methods of section 5.3, y$ = 351,664 acres, CV 3.84%.
2. Using the methods of section 5.5, p = 0.2045±0.011085, y£ = 1178±63.84.
For details of computations, see the reference.
3. For (a), use the methods of section 5.3, and for (b) section 5.6. (a) 19, 943±
1242 acres; CV 6.23%; (b) 19, 453 ± 946 acres, CV 4.86%.

Chapter 6 (page 123)

1. Following the method of note 4 in section 6.4 and taking Mo = number of
persons per kraal = 3427/43 — 79.7, the estimated intraclass correlation
coefficient is 0.085.
2. Relative cost efficiencies: 100, 94, 86, 92; optimum size is 1 ft row.

Chapter 7 (page 139)

2. Using equation (7.8), and noting that the permissible margin of error d =
0.1 P, where P is the universe proportion, the number of wells is 44 for
P = 0.9 to 400 for P — 0.5. For details, see the reference.
3. See Exercise 2, using P = 0.5, n = 400 persons.
4. In Example 2.2, the CV of the estimator obtained from 20 sample house­
holds was 0.0863. Using equation (7.22), the required sample size is 60
households.
5. Assuming normality and using Table 7.2 (last line), the estimated s.d. is
15, whereas the true s.d. is 16.1.

Chapter 10 (page 183)

1. As students are often asked to analyze the data of a stratified srs in the
above form, the required computations are given in Table 1. The estimated
standard errors of the stratum means will be obtained on dividing column
(14) by Nh-
2. For (a) use equations (10.5(d)) and (10.15); y = 1,353, 572 households, CV
9.12%. For (b) use equations (10.55) and (10.15); gain 407%.
3. From equation (10.51), average household size — 3022/598.8 = 4.95; from
equation (10.52), its standard error is 0.1306 and CV 2.64%. Note that in
this case, the use of separate ratio estimates for the estimate of a ratio has
not led to an improvement.
 Answers to Exercises
Table 1: Computations for Chapter 10, Exercise 1

Stratum Vh = vio - (S-ï nh

SSyhi nh(nh - 1) ssVhi
nh("k-l)
,2
y* h0 - syh0 cv
"h
Nhÿh n2-co1.(12) of
>=1

(%)

(1) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15)

I 4.05 2572 383 161 2504 3075 23,256 0.132210 53,310 231 9.0
II 10.31 5878 2,024,929 14,673 9580 18,906 0.506696 164,626 406 6.9
III 15.29 7263 3,090,564 26,874 7208 13,110 0.549773 124,043 352 4.8
IV 23.16 7017 2,859,481 39,171 12,248 5256 2.330295 213,942 462 6.6
V 28.71 2565 363,609 17,315 990 420 2.357833 18,676 137 5.2

Ail 12.211 25,293 574,597 758^ 3.ot

strata (y) (*
v) Sy cvy
(%)

t Not additive.

O
-J
608 Answers to Exercises

Table 2: Computations for ChapterlO, Exercise 3

Stratum No. of No. of

(acres) farms in farms
stratum sampled
«h
Nh nh ^Vhi rh Ph-rh/nh
i=i i= l

1-5 435 25 0 0 0 0
6-20 519 26 3 9 1 0.0385
21-50 357 16 6 36 1 0.0625
51-150 519 17 159 3969 8 0.4706
151-300 400 26 762 38,510 20 0.7692
300 266 15 1371 164,737 15 1

All strata 2496 125 2301 207,231 45 0.3600

(Æ) (n) (Ä) (p)t

t Not additive.
4. For convenience and checking, Table 2 is provided with additional columns
(4)-(7); yht is the wheat acreage of the ith farm (i = l,2,...,nn) in the
/ith stratum (/i = 1,2,..., 6), Th is the number and pn. the proportion of
farms growing wheat in the hth stratum.
For (i), using the formulae of sections 2.9 and 2.12, the estimated total area
of wheat = (2496 x 2301/125) = 45, 946T8142 acres, CV 17.7%. Estimated
number of farms growing wheat Np = 2496 x 45/125 = 899, with estimated
standard error of A-^/[p^l--^pj/^rT^Tj] = 109, CV 12.1%.
For (ii), using the formulae of section 10.7(1), y — Nhÿh =41, 106±4444
acres, CV 10.8%; using the results of section 10.3, the estimated number of
farms growing wheat Np = £2 NhPh = 860, with estimated standard error
y/[72 — Py)/(nn — 1)] = 79, CV 10.2%. Note the gain in efficiency
in stratification after sampling.
6. Follow the methods of sections 10.4 and 10.5, noting that the finite sampling
correction (1 — fh) = 0.5, where fh = nh/Nh = 0.5, are not small and have,
therefore, to be applied to estimate variances. Note, further, that since one
hospital is selected in a sample county, there would be no need to assign
a subscript for the sample hospital. Let x denote hospital beds and y
AIDS admissions, then i* hl = NhMhiXhi and y^t = NhMhtyhi, where Mhi
is the number of hospitals in the ith selected county and Xht and ?/ht are
respectively the number of beds and the number of AIDS admissions in the
Answers to Exercises 609

one selected hospital in the ith selected county. Arrange the computation
as in the tables in Example 10.2. The following are the results: (a) unbiased
estimate of the total number of AIDS admissions: 1096, s.e. 308; proportion
of AIDS admissions: 0.4769, s.e. 0.06299; (b) separate ratio estimate of
AIDS admissions: 1170, s.e. 506; combined ratio estimate: 1192, s.e. 157.

Chapter 11 (page 204)

1. Following the method of section 11.2, y = 38,040 ± 3027 acres.

Chapter 12 (page 221)

1. Use equations (12.6) and (12.27); the results are given in Table 12.6.
2. Using the Neyman allocation (equation (12.10)), with 14 = 74(1 — Ph) and
n = 2000, the allocations are 1222, 167 and 611 persons.

Chapter 15 (page 268)

1. (a) Using the methods of section 15.2.6(b-i), note 2, the average weight of
a tablet is 1.08 ± 0.035 g; (b) using the methods of section 15.4, note 3, the
proportion of sub-standard tablets is 0.058 ± 0.020; (c) using the method
of section 15.2.5, note 2, the ratio is 0.170 ± 0.0020.
2. (a) Using equations (15.13) and (15.14), the estimated total number of
cattle in the area is 28, 820 ±3427, with CV 11.98%. (b) (i) Following the
method of section 15.2.6(b-ii), the average number of cattle per farm is,
from equations (15.45) and (15.46), 12.4595 ± 1.0940, with CV 8.40%; (ii)
following the methods of section 15.2.6(b-iii), the average is 13.0508 ± 1.195,
with CV 9.16%; and (iii) following the methods of section 15.2.6(b-i), the
average is 13.9090 ± 1.654, with CV 11.89%.
3. Following the methods of section 15.2.3, the estimated total number of
beetles is 24.594 ± 2706. For details of computation, see the reference in
the exercise.

Chapter 16 (page 287)

1. Following the method of section 16.3.1, the estimated total number of cattle
is 28,421 ± 2899, with CV 10.20%.
2. Following section 16.3.2, the estimated total number of cattle is 24, 188
with CV 9.79%. For details of computation, see the reference.

Chapter 17 (page 299)

1. Using equation (17.11), m0 = 2.9 or 3. From the cost function, n —
(C — co)/(ci ± m0c2) = 336.
610 Answers to Exercises

2. Following the same method as for Example 17.2, the estimated variance of
the total income = 3180 + 653, 049 = 3, 833, 529.
3. (a) Following the same methods as for Example 17.1, Vi = 0.0788, V2 =
2.1374, and the unbiased variance estimate of the mean = 0.000788 +
0.0021374 = 0.0029254.
(b) From equation (17.3), expected variance = 0.0843766.

Chapter 20 (page 353)

1. Although the sample design is stratified three-stage srs with villages, fields
and plots selected at different stages, we can use the notations of a stratified
two-stage design as only one plot is selected from each field. Denote by уьч
the yield of the jth sample field in the ith sample villages of the hth stratum
(h = 1,2, . . . , 10; i = 1,2; j = 1,2). Then if ao — acre is the area of plot
selected in each sample field, the unbiased estimator of the total yield of
the /ith stratum is y'i0 = |(?/hi +Унг) with an unbiased variance estimator
- Унт)2 > where y* hl = Ah(j/h,i -yhc^/ao, and Ah is the total area of
the hth stratum. The estimated total yield is 27, 716 ± 2187 metric tonnes
(1 metric tonne — 2204.6 lb).
2. Following the same methods as for Example 20.1, the estimated average
number of adults per household in the three states combined is 2.72T0.097.
3. See section 20.2.10(b) and 10.5. The ratio estimate of the average household
size is у rs /Xrs = 3017.67/598.78 = 5.04T0.0306, with the estimated CV
of 0.61%, a very considerable improvement over the CV of the ratio of the
unbiased estimators, 3.22%, in Example 10.2.

Chapter 21 (page 376)

1. Following the method of Example 21.1, the results are: (a) total expendi­
ture on cereals, Rs. 18, 370, 605 ± 2, 230, 232; (b) per capita expenditure on
cereals, Rs. 9.79 ± 1.498; (c) average household size, 5.73 ± 0.442.
2. Following Example 21.1, the estimated average number of adults per house­
hold is 2.67 ± 0.078.

Chapter 24 (page 399)

* — 1087 ± 159.
1. Using equations (24.26) and (24.29), N
< previous page page_611 next page >
Page 611

INDEX OF NAMES AND ORGANIZATIONS

This list comprises names of persons, countries, governments, institutions, and organizations referred to in the
book. Programs such as the Current Population Survey of the U.S. are listed in the Index of Subjects. Co-authors
have been listed only once, unless they had more than one publication, singly or jointly.

A
Abernathy, J.R., 415
Ackoff, R.L., 23
Acsádi, Georges, 480, 557
Adlaka, Arjun L., 448
Afghanistan, 563
African Development Bank, 569
AGFUND, 570
Alder, James E., 413
Algeria, 561
Aliaga, Alfredo, 568
Anderson, Dallas W., 401
Anderson, J.E., 567
Appel, Martin V., 4, 96
Arbis, G., 502
American Statistical Association, 1, 18
Ardilly, Pascal, 23
Asok, C., (in Sukhatme et al., 1984), 22
Australia, 2, 486, 496
Azorin, F., 23

B
Bailar, Barbara, 428, 447, 455
Bailey, N.T.J., 399
Baker, Reginald P. (in Bradburn et al.), 490
Balaban, V., 429
Bangalore (India), 446
Bangladesh, 412, 419, 563
Barnett, Vic, 22
Bayes, T., 409
Behmoiras, J.P., 176
Bellhouse, D.R., 21, 89
Benjamin, Bernard, 427, 441
Berger, R., 413
Bershad, M.A., 438, 442
Bethlehem, Jelke G., 489, 495
Bhattacharyya, A., 539, 546, 556
Bhattacharya, Bhairab C., 422
Bhutan, 560
Biemer, Paul P. (also in Groves et al.), 23, 428, 438, 439, 455
Billard, Lynne, 406
Binder, A., 397
Blalok, Hubert M., 22
Blanc, Robert, 482
Blankenship, Albert B., 23
Bochtler, Erwin, 23
Bombay (India), 421
Booth, Heather (in Adlaka et al.), 448
Boswell, M.T., 399
Bourke, Patrick D., 415
Bowley, A.L., 211
Bradburn, Norman M., 482, 490
Brazil, 492, 566, 567
Brenner, Eric, 572
Brewer, K.R.W., 112
Brick, J.M., 406
Brookes, B.C., 427
Brown, S., 418
Brownie, C. (in Pollock et al.), 399
Brunei, 2
Buckland, William R., 22, 427
Bullough, Vern L., 482
Burdon, J. (in Cox et al.), 413
Burnham, K.P. (in Boswell et al.), 399
Start of Citation[PU]M. Dekker[/PU][DP]1996[/DP]End of Citation
< previous page page_611 next page >
< previous page page_612 next page >
Page 612
Bush, Carolee, 412, 413

C
Cable, Gloria, 498
Calder, Bobby J., 413
Cameroon, 390, 397, 461-464, 573
Canada, 2, 416, 426, 440, 449, 486, 489, 496, 557, 568
Cantor, David C., 491
Cantril, H., 23
Carlson, Beverley A., 418, 419
Casley, D.J., 482
Caspar, Robert A. (in Droitcour et al.), 415
Chad, 447
Chakravarti, I.M., 22, 67, 221, 269, 270, 299, 353, 376-377, 380, 385
Chamberlain, Kathleen, 485, 502
Chamie, Mary, 417, 418
Chandra Sekar, C., 447
Chatterjee, S., 210
Chaudhary. F.S., 22, 74, 78, 112, 267, 287, 299, 306, 351, 380, 385, 394, 397, 408, 409, 455
Chaudhuri, Arijit, 22, 66, 112, 394, 397, 409, 410, 415, 455
Chinappa, Nanjamma, 73, 556
Chintakananda, A., 448
Chow, L.P., 415
Clausen, J.A., 453
Clayton, R.L., 498
Coale, Ansley J., 441
Cochran, William G., 22, 24, 66, 68-69, 74, 77, 78, 89, 123, 128, 130-131, 133, 134, 139, 155, 183, 204, 209,
210, 221, 267, 287, 299, 300, 380, 385, 394, 397, 401, 403, 408, 409, 437, 438, 441, 444, 451, 455, 483
Co¬ffic, Nicole, 3
Cole, Robert A., 497
Coli. M., 502
Collins, Martin, 23, 572
Columbia Office of Radio Research, 411
Columbia Bureau of Applied Social Research, 411
Copeland, K.R., 498
Corlett, T., 23, 557
Cowan, Charles D., 401
Cox, Keith K., 411, 413
Cramér, H., 16
Creighton, K., 496
Croft, Trevor, 485
Curran, James W. (in Pappaioanou, et al. (1990a,b)), 421
Cyert, R.M., 22, 556
Cyprus, 2

D
Dalenius, Toré, 22, 214, 415, 557
Das, N.C., 167, 449, 557
Dasgupta, Ajit, 428
Dataquest, 500
David, H.A., 22
De, Ajoy K., 167, 557
Dean, A.G., 419
DeGraft-Johnson, K.T., 560, 562
Dekker, Arij L., 485, 489
Delaine, Ghislaine, 572
De La Macorra, Luis (in Folch-Lyon, et al.), 412
Demery, Lionel (in Delaine, et al.), 572
Deming, W. Edwards, 22, 24, 25, 66, 78, 123, 124, 133, 139, 221, 267, 299, 402, 403, 423, 429, 434, 446, 447,
451, 457, 474, 556, 557
Deroo, Marc, 23
Desabie, M.J., 23
Desvé, Gilles, 572
Deville, J.C. (in Gourieroux et al.), 23
Dick, W.F.L., 427
Dillman, Don A., 482, 557
Discover, 415
Dondero, Timothy J. Jr. (in Pappaioanou, et al. (1990a and b)), 421
Dougherty, Doug, 491
Droitcour, Judith, 415
Duncan, G., 397
Dubois, Jean-Luc (in Delaine et al.), 572
 Dupa , Vavclac, 22, 398, 399
Durbin, J., 406
Dussaix, Anne-Marie, 23
Dutka, Salomon, 23
Duza, M. Badrud, 412

E
Economist, 406
Efron, Bradley, 405, 406
Egypt, 2, 397, 416, 418
Ekman, G., 214
El-Badry, M., 453
Ellis, Carlos, 489, 490, 492
El Salvador, 567
England and Wales, 556
ENIAC, 487
Ericson, W.A., 410
Espana, Eduardo Garcia, 482
Start of Citation[PU]M. Dekker[/PU][DP]1996[/DP]End of Citation

< previous page page_612 next page >

< previous page page_613 next page >
Page 613
Ethiopia, 2, 24, 561, 563
European Community, 562
Ezzati, Trena M. (in Droitcour et al.), 415

F
FAO, 23, 418, 482
Fellegi, Ivan P., 438, 489
Feller, W., 410
Ferber, Robert, 1, 18
Fern, Edward F., 413
Fichner, R.R. (in Sullivan, et al.), 419
Fienberg, S.E., 23, 482
Finkner, A.L., 482
Fisher, R.A., 50, 531, 532
Fiske, Marjorie, 411
Fitzpatrick, T.B., 408
Folch-Lyon, Evelyn, 412
Ford, R.N., 453
Foreman, E.K., 78, 315, 351, 376, 380, 385, 394, 397, 399, 409, 455, 482
Forsyth, Barbara H., 413
Fowler, F., 482
France, 2, 489, 565
France: Ministère de la France d'outre-mer, 440
Frankel, Lester R., 23, 439
Frankel, Martin R., 490
Freeman, Michael, 412, 413, 557
Frey, James H., 482, 557
Frost, John F., 412
Furrie, Adele D., 417

G
Gage, T.J., 413
Gagnon, John H. (in Laumann et al. and Michael et al.), 483
Ganttt, William, 465
Gallup, George, 23
Galvani, L., 25
Ganguly, Amalendu N., 374
Gates, C.E., 399
Gebhhard, Paul H. (in Kinsey et al. (1953)), 482
George, J. Richard (in Pappaioanou, et al. (1990b)), 421
Gerland, Patrick, 486
Germany, 397, 450
Ghana, 560
Gini, C., 25,
Glass, David V., 454
Glasser, G.J., 474
Godambe, V.P., 22, 23, 112
Goldstein, Richard, 406
Gong, G., 406
Goodchild. M.F., 502
Goodman, R., 408
Gorstein, J., 419
Gourieroux, C., 23
Gray, Henry L., 406, 407
Gray, P.G., 23, 557
Grady, George F. (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990b)), 421
Grdjic, Branko (in Delaine, et al.), 570
Grebenik, Eugene, 454
Greece, 404, 556, 557
Gregoire, Timothy G. (in Schreuder et al.), 482
Greenberg, B.G., 415
Grik, D.C., 413
Grootaert, Christiaan, 572
Grosbras, Jean-Marie, 23
Groves, Robert M., 23, 438, 455
Guatemala, 568
Guerney, Margaret, 214
Gulf Co-operation Council States (GCCS), 419, 570

H
Hájek, Jaroslav, 22, 23, 398, 399
Haldane, J.B.S., 400
 Hammersley, J.. 399
Hanif, M., 112
Hannox, W. Harry (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990b)), 421
Hansen, Morris H., 5, 22, 24, 66, 78, 89, 95, 96, 123, 139, 155, 183, 214, 221, 267, 287, 299, 306, 310, 351, 376,
380, 385, 394, 397, 404, 405, 408, 438, 442, 450, 455
Harewood, John, 556
Harris, F.F., 557
Hartley, H.O., 454
Hategikamana, G.M.B. (in Grik et al.), 413
Havreng, Jean François, 572
Hedayat, A.S., 22, 66, 78, 112, 123, 139, 155, 183, 204, 221, 267, 287, 299, 394, 401
Hendricks, Walter A., 22, 295, 299, 453, 454
Herberger, L., 184
Hess, Irene, 408
Higginbotham, J.R., 411, 413
Hill, Christopher (in Delaine, et al.), 572
Hines, J.E. (in Pollock et al.), 399
Hite, Shere, 483
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Page 614
Hodges, J.L. 214
Hoff, Rodney (in Pappaioanou, et al. (1990b)), 421
Hofman, Lon, 489
Hogan, Howard, 3
Honduras, 483
Hong Kong, 2
Horvitz, D.G., 413, 415
Hosmer, D.W. Jr., 571
Hosni, E., 447
Hubbard, Michael E. (in Droitcour et al.), 415
Hudiroglou, M.A., 397
Hundepool, Anco J., 489, 495
Hungary, 2
Hurwitz, William N. (in Hansen et al. (1953)), 22, 95, 214, 450, 453, 483

I
I-Cheng, C., 415
Ide, Mitsuru, 492
Illinois Board of Higher Education, 2
ILO, 420
Impulse Research Corp., 411
India, 2, 24, 310, 394, 402, 416, 440, 443, 446, 447, 464, 474, 476, 477, 539-558, 563, 568
India, Central Statistical Organization, 540
India, Government, 149, 428, 446, 539, 540
India, NSS Organization, 310, 429, 457
India, Office of the Registrar-General, 541, 556
Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 171, 556
Indian Statistical Institute, 442, 540, 542, 556, 558
Indonesia, 2
Institute for Resource Development, 493
International Development Research Council, Canada, 565
International Statistical Institute, 481, 563
IUSSP, 25

J
Jabine, T.J., 483
Janus, Cynthia L., 483
Janus, Samuel S., 483
Japan, 496, 565
Japan, Statistical Center, 492
Japan, Statistical Bureau, 492
Jaworski, John, 418, 419
Jemiai, Hedi, 419
Jessen, R.J., 22
Johnson, D.R., 413
Johnson, Norman L., 22, 410
Johnson, P.O., 22
Johnson, Virginia E., 483
Jones, D.C., 23
Jordan, 418, 572

K
Kalton, Graham, 21, 22, 23, 310, 397, 401, 456, 457, 557
Kalsbeek, William D., 457
Kasprzyk, D., 397, 491, 498
Kawasaki, Shigeru, 492
Kendall, Maurice G., 22, 50, 427
Kendall, Patricia L., 411, 413
Kenya, 566, 572
Kersemajers, F. (in van Bastelaer et al.), 491
Khalifa, Atef, 419
Kinsey, Alfred C., 483
Kinshasa (Zaire), 458
Kiser, C.V., 427
Kish, Leslie J., 22, 23, 24, 66, 78, 89, 112, 119, 123, 125, 138, 139, 221, 267, 299, 351, 376, 380, 394, 397, 403,
405, 408, 409, 455, 556, 564, 571
Klar, J., 571
Klinger, Andreas, 482, 557
Knodel, John, 413
Knoop, H., 456
Kolata, Gina (in Michael et al.), 483
Koop, J.C., 403, 445
 Korea, South, 566, 572
Krishnaiah, P.R., 22
Krotki, Karol J. (also in Marks et al.), 22, 448
Krupka, K., 557

L
Laha, R.G. (in Chakravarti et al.), 22, 67
Lahiri, D.B., 97, 403
Landman, C. (in Creighton et al.), 496
Laplante, M., 418
Laumann, Edward O., 483, 557
Lauriat, P., 448
Lavrakas, Paul J., 482
League of Arab States, 570, 571
Lemeshow, Stanley, 23, 67, 139, 184, 187, 401, 482, 571, 572
Lepage, Raoul, 406
Leslie, P.H., 399
Lessler, Judith T., 413, 455
Levy, Paul S., 23, 67, 139, 184, 187, 401, 482, 571, 572
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< previous page page_615 next page >
Page 615
Lewis, Jerry, 412
Lewontin, R.C., 483
Lichty, Tom, 502
Lincoln, F.C., 398
Lindley, D.V., 410
Lingner, Joan W. (in Adlaka et al.), 482
Lininger, Charles, A., 22
Literary Digest, 5
Lord, M. G., 483
Lovejoy, W. (in Kish et al.), 557
Löwenbein, Oded, 23
Lury, D.A., 482
Lyberg, Lars E., 23, 491, 498

M
Macro International, 495, 557, 567, 568
Macura, M., 429
Madow, William G. (also in Hansen et al. (1953)), 22, 457
Maguire, D.J., 502
Mahalanobis, P.C., 171, 214, 402, 403, 428, 443, 444, 455, 482, 539, 556
Malawi, 2, 448
Mammon, E., 406
MapInfo Co., 500
Marchant, Timothy (also in Delaine et al.), 572
Market Dynamics, 413
Marks, Eli S. (also in Hansen et al. (1951)), 22, 438, 448
Martin, Clyde E.(in Kinsey et al. (1948) and (1953)), 483
Martin, Elizabeth, 455
Masters, William S., 483
Mauldin, W. Parker (also in Hansen et al. (1951)), 438
Matchett, S. (in Creighton et al.), 496
Mathiowetz, Nancy A. (in Biemer et al.), 438
Mauldin, W. Parker (also in Hansen et al. (1951)), 438
Mauritania, 572
McCarthy, P.J., 23
McDaniel, C., 413
McKay, Andrew (in Delaine et al.), 572
Meily, S.A., 498
Mendenhall, William (in Scheaffer et al.), 22
Merton, Robert K., 411, 413,
Messley, James T. (in Groves et al.), 23, 439
Mexico, 561
Michael, Robert T. (also in Laumann et al.), 483, 557
Michaels, Stuart (also in Laumann et al. and Michael et al.), 483
Microsoft Corp., 465, 562
Miller, J., 415
Miller, R.G., 407
Monroe, John, 482
Morgan, David L., 413
Morin, Hervé, 23
Morocco, 2, 447
Moser, Claus A., 22, 23, 310, 397, 447, 454, 455, 557
Mosteller, F., 483
Mukherjee, Rahul, 415
Mukherjee, Hiralal, 167
Murthy, M.N., ix, 22, 24, 66, 73, 74, 78, 89, 95, 96, 112-113, 123, 131, 139, 155, 167, 183, 185, 197, 204, 221,
226, 235, 267, 287, 299, 306, 366-367, 385, 394, 397, 403, 455, 482, 556
Myers, Robert J., 448
Mysore (India), 149, 446

N
Nadot, Robert, 447
Nag, Moni, 412
Naidu, G.M., 23
Namboodiri, Krishnan, 22
Nanjamma, N.S., 73
National Opinion Research Center (NORC), University of Chicago, 483
Nepal, 2, 572
Neter, J., 22, 457
Netherlands, 2
Netherlands, Central Bureau of Statistics, 416, 417, 418, 486, 491, 565
 New York City, 421, 439
New York Times, 406, 483, 572
Neyman, J., 210, 426
Nichols, J. D. (in Pollock et al.), 399
Nichols, William T. II (in Groves et al.), 23, 439
Nisselson, H., 443, 449
Nizeto, B. (in Krupka et al.), 557
North Carolina, 453-454
Novello, Antonia (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990b)), 421
Novick, David G., 497

O
Ochoa, Luis Hernadedz, 568
Olkin, I. (in Madow et al.), 457
Olsen, Randall J., 491
Onorato, Ida M. (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990a)), 421
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Page 616
Ortuzar, Julio (in Ochoa et al.), 568
Ott, Lyman (in Scheaffer et al.), 21
Owen, O., 406, 407
Owinn, Marta (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990b)), 421

P
Pakistan, 2, 448
Pakistan, Institute of Development Economics, 556
Panama, 2
Panse, V.G., 22, 482, 556
Pappaioanou, Marguerite, 421
Papua and New Guinea, 2
Paraguay, 567
Parker, K. (in Grik et al.), 413
Parker, Roger C., 502
Parsley, Teressa L. (in Droitcour et al.), 415
Parten, M.B., 23
Pathak, P.K., 66
Patil, G.P. (in Boswell et al.), 399
Payne, S.L., 23
Pergamit, Michael R. (in Bradburn et al.), 491
Peru, 2, 402
Petersen, Lyle, R. (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990a)), 421
Piet, Nancy, 412
Petkunas, Tom (in Suyono et al.), 498
Philippines, 2
Pillai, B. Trivikraman, 167
Politz, Alfred, 454
Pollock, K.H., 399
Pomeroy, Wardell B. (in Kinsey et al. (1948) and (1953)), 483
Ponikwoski, C.H., 498
Population Council, 412, 482
Population Reports, 566, 567, 571
Pritzker, L., 5, 450
Public Health Reports, 422

Q
Queens College, New York City University, 480
Quenouille, M.H., 73, 406

R
Raj, Des, 95, 557
Ramachandran, K.V., 443
Ramsey, F.L., 399
Rand Corporation, 50
Rao, C.R., ix, 22, 25, 403
Rao, J.N.K., 406
Rao, P.S.R.S., 78
Rao, T.J., 73
Reinhards, J.N. (in Krupka et al.), 483
Research Triangle Institute, 492
Reynolds, F.D., 413
Rhind, D.W., 502
Rice, S.C., 491
Rider, R.V., 416
Rich, Bruce, 561
Riedel, D.C., 408
Ries, P., 418
Robinson, David, 571
Robinson, Paul, 484
Rojas, Guillermo, 491
Roosevelt, F.D., 5
Ross, John (in Suyono et al.), 412
Rotschild, B.B., 491
Rosander, A.C., 23, 557
Round, Jeffery (in Delaine et al.), 572
Rowe, B., 491
Rowe, Errol, 498
Roy, A.S., 482, 539, 546, 556
Roy, J. (in Chakravarti et al.), 22, 67
Royer, Jacques, 482
 Rubin, Donald R., 457

S
Sadd, Susan, 483
Salant, Priscila, 482
Sampford, M.R., 22, 112-113, 401
Sampson, Peter, 413
Sanchez, Carolyn D. (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990a)), 421
Sanchez-Crespo, J.L., 23
San Francisco, 421
Sanderson, F.H., 482
Sanwal, Mukul, 487, 502
Saris, W.E., 498
Sarma, S.M. Umakanta, 167
Schaffer, K.A., 483
Scheaffer, Richard L., 21, 414
Schearer, R. Bruce, 412
Scherr, Marvin G., 411, 412
Schuerhoff, Maarten, 489
Schmitt, S.A., 410
Schreuder, Hans T., 482
Schucany, W. R., 406, 407
Scopp, Thomas S., 489
Scott, C., 122, 572
Seltzer, William (in Marks et al.), 22, 448
Sen, A.R., 399
Sengupta, J.M., 428, 556
Seth, G.R., 438
Seychelles, 24
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Page 617
Shah, B.V., 413
Shearer, S. Bruce, 412
Sheatsley, Paul (in Ferber et al.), 1
Shoa Province (Ethiopia), 251
Sikes, O.J., 413
Sikkel, D. (in van Bastelaer et al.), 491
Simmons, Willard, 454
Simmons. W.R., 413
Singh, Daroga, 22, 74, 78, 112, 267, 287, 299, 306, 351, 380, 385, 394, 397, 408, 409, 455
Singh, M.P., 397
Sinha, Bikas K., 22, 66, 78, 112, 123, 139, 155, 183, 204, 221, 267, 287, 299, 394, 401
Sirken, Monroe J., 401
Skuhrav, V., 399
Slavson, S.R., 411
Slonim, Morris J., 4, 21, 22, 557
Smith, H. Babbington, 50
Smith, Harry Jr., 22, 410
Smith, T.M.F., 22, 23
Snedecor, George W., 22, 300
Sogunro, B.O., 456
Som, Ranjan K., ix, 22, 167, 170, 169, 195, 196, 306, 374, 385, 403, 419, 425, 428, 435, 437, 444, 446, 447,
455, 456, 482, 502, 556
Spain, 2
Speizer, Howard, 491
Sprott, D.A., 22
Stanecki, Karen A., 421
Strategic Mapping Corp., 500
Statistics Canada, 417, 427
Stenger, Horst, 22, 66, 112, 394, 397, 409, 410, 415, 455
Stephan, F.F., 23
Stirling, Farquhar (in Suyono et al.), 412
Stokes, S. Lynn, 438
Stroh, G. Jr., 572
Stuart, Alan, 22
Studies in Family Planning, 413
Stycos, Mayone J., 411
Sudman, Seymour, 22, 23, 397, 401, 482, 557
Sukhatme, Balkrishna V. (also in Sukhatme et al.), 22, 113-114, 482
Sukhatme, Pandurang V., 22-24, 66, 73-74, 78, 89, 112-113, 123-124, 139, 155, 183, 204, 221, 267, 287, 299,
306, 351, 375, 380, 385, 394, 397, 401, 403, 408, 409, 428, 438, 441, 451, 456, 482, 463, 556
Sukhatme, Shashikala (in Sukhatme et al.), 22
Sullivan, K.M., 419
Sunter, Alan R., 489
Suyono, Haryono, 412
Swaziland, 441
Sweden, 487, 489, 496, 568
Switzerland, 489
Symantec Corp., 19, 465, 562
Syracuse, New York State, 427, 456
Syria, 418
Szabady, Egon, 484, 557
Szametiat, K., 483
Szybillo, G., 413

T
Taillie, C., 399
Tanur, J.M., 23, 482
Tavris, Carol, 483
Tepping, Benjamin J., 5
Thailand, 2, 448
Thanh Le, 568
Thionet, P., 23
Thompson, M.E., 23, 112
Thompson, Steven K., 22, 78, 399, 416
Tibshirani, Robert J., 406
Tippet, L.H.C., 22
Toro, Vivian, 465, 502
Trinidad & Tobago, 556
Trowbridge, F.L. (in Fichner et al.), 419
Trueblood, R.M., 22, 556
Truman, Harry S., 5
 Tufalu, 2
Tukey, J. W., 402, 406, 483
Turkey, 448
Turner, Anthony, 1

U
Uganda, 561
U.K., 310, 439, 448, 453, 456, 486, 539, 565
UN, 2, 19, 22, 23, 67, 78-79, 149, 183, 185, 189, 218, 269, 270, 287-288, 393, 399, 399, 401, 403, 418, 419,
420, 427, 429, 446, 447, 456, 461, 469, 471, 479, 481, 482, 486, 496, 502, 559, 560, 562, 563, 564, 565, 568,
569
UNDP, 569, 570
UN Economic Commission for Africa, 464
UN Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 488, 502
UNFPA, 496, 565, 568, 570
UNICEF, 412, 570, 571
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Page 618
United States, 1, 2, 3, 24, 310, 394, 402, 411, 416, 417, 418, 420. 439, 440, 441, 447, 476, 486, 491, 496, 498,
539, 556, 558
Upper Volta (Burkina Faso), 447
U.S. Agency for International Development, 420, 559, 565, 566, 567
U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2, 4, 22, 404, 413, 419, 421, 439, 441, 449, 451, 452, 467, 471, 479, 482, 489, 491,
493, 494, 498, 499, 500, 556
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 498
U.S. Centers for Diseases Control, 421, 493, 501, 567
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 412
U.S. Department of Labor, 490
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 498
U.S. Internal Revenue Service, 4, 498, 499
U.S. National Cancer Institute, 412
U.S. National Center for Geographic Information, 500
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 2, 23, 404, 557
U.S. National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, 412
U.S. Office of Child Support Enforcement, 412
U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 412, 498
U.S. Postal Service, 499
U.S. Social Security Administration, 412, 499
U.S. Veterans Administration, 499
U.S.D. Inc., 496
U.S.S.R., 441

V
Van Bastelaer, A., 491
Vance, L.L., 22
Velu, R., 23
Venezuela, 417
Verma, Vijay, 562, 568
Viet Nam, 561
Viet Nam Institute of Computer Science, 501
Visscher, Wendy (in Droitcour et al.), 415

W
Waksberg,, J. 1, 23, 455
Warner, S., 413
Warwick, Donald P., 22
Way, Peter O., 421
Weber, A.A., 268, 280-1
Weimin, Zhang, 3
Welburn, Arthur J., 22
Werking, G.S., 498
Westinghouse Public Applied System, 566
WHO (World Health Organization), 416, 418, 420, 482, 493, 501, 570, 571, 572
WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region/South-east Asian Region, 418
Willard, Joseph L. (in Ochoa et al.), 568
Willeman, Thomas R., 406
Willoughby, Anne D. (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990b)), 421
Wilson, John K., 483
Wilson, L.B., 491
Wood, Geoffrey, 482
Woolsey, T.D., 443, 449
World Bank, 493, 561, 568, 569, 570, 571, 572
Wright, Audrey (in Pappaioanou et al. (1990b)), 421
Wright, R.A. (in Rice et al.), 491
Wu, C.F.J., 406

Y
Yates, F., 22, 23, 24, 25, 50, 66, 67-68, 78, 89, 112, 123, 139, 155, 183, 186, 204, 205, 210, 267, 287, 299, 394,
397, 403, 404, 416, 427, 428, 441, 454, 456, 482, 502, 556
Yerushalmy, J., 428
Yugoslavia, 2
Yule, G. Udny, 22

Z
Zaire, 425, 456
Zambia, 310
Zarkovich, S.S., 403, 433, 471, 482
Zimbabwe, 2, 67, 402, 446
Zongming, Shao, 3
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Page 619

INDEX OF SUBJECTS

A
Accounting surveys, 22
Accuracy of individual survey values, 430 (see also Response errors)
Ad hoc survey:
definition, 470
by permanent survey organizations, 465
Administrative organization of surveys, 465
Adult education survey, 2
Advanced estimated from IPNS, 402
African Population Census Programme, 459
Agricultural surveys, 22
(see also Crop surveys)
errors and biases in surveys:
in Greece, 441
in Hertfordshire, U.K., 183, 186, 204-205
in Peru, 402
in United States, 404
use of multi-stage sampling in, 230
AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome) surveys, 420-422
Allocation of total sample size:
to different stages in multi-stage sampling, 289-300
to different strata and stages in stratified multi-stage sampling, 379-380
to different strata in stratified single-stage sampling, 207-222
Analysis of variance, 294-296
Ancillary variables:
(see also pps sampling, Ratio method of estimation, Regression method of estimation, Stratified sampling,
Systematic sampling)
definition, 8
use of in srs, 71-80
ANTHRO software, 419
Areal units:
complete enumeration of, 449-50
 as ultimate-stage sample units, 397
Atlas GIS, 499-500
Auditing and accounting surveys, 22
Australia, health surveys, 2
Automatic voice recognition, 499
Auto-owners' satisfaction survey, 1-2
Average (see Mean)

B
Bayes' theorem, use in sampling, 409-419
Belgium, family-building surveys, 2
Bengal crop survey, 171-172, 402
Bias, effect of (see also Errors and biases in data and estimates):
in combined ratio estimator, 175
on errors of estimates, 437
in estimate of ratios, 46
of an estimator, 16-17
in estimator of a ratio, 45
of individual survey values, survey means and survey totals, 430
in ratio method of estimation, 73-74, 517-519
in regression method of estimation, 77
in separate ratio estimator, 175
in stratification after sampling, 181-182
Biased estimator, definition, 33
Biological studies, 22
Binomial distribution (see Proportions of units)
Blaise system, 495
BMDP software, 499
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Page 620
Bootstrap method of variance estimation, 405-406
Bowley allocation (see Proportional allocation)
Brunei, family budget surveys, 2
Budget and cost control in surveys, 461-463
Business research, 22

C
CAC (computer-assisted coding), 489, 496
CADE (computer-assisted data entry and editing), 489
CADI (computer-assisted data input), 489-499
Cameroon:
demographic surveys, 122, 390, 461-463, 572-573
survey of level of living, 290
Canada:
disability surveys (inc. HALS), 416- 418, 426-427
labor force surveys, 397
population census, 416, 440
Canvassing method of data collection, 467
CAPI (computer-assisted personal interview), 489-491, 496-499
Capture-recapture method in estimating mobile populations, 398, 447-448
Cartographic work, 465-466
Case study: Indian National Sample survey, 539-558
CASI (computer-assisted self interview), 498
CASIC (computer-assisted survey information system), 496-499
CATI (computer-assisted telephone interview), 496-497
Cauchy-Schwartz inequality, 526
CBSView software, 495
CENTRACK (census tracking software), 494
CENTRY (census entry software), 489, 493-494
CENTS (census tabulation system software), 491
CENVAR software for variance estimation, 492, 494
Chad, demographic surveys, 176, 447
Chandra Sekhar-Deming formula, 447-448
Children's nutritional status surveys, 418-419
 in Bangladesh, 418
as part of PAPCHILD, 418-419
Chile, death rates in, 429
Circular systematic sampling, 82-83
Cluster sampling, 24, 115-124, 451-452, 523-524
comparison with srs, 115-120
in controlling non-sampling errors, 451-452
optimal size, 136-138
for proportions, 120-121
sample estimators, 118-119
sample size, 136
universe values, 116-117, 521-522
variance function, 122-123
Cluster size, optimum, 138-140
Coding, 477
Coefficient of variation:
of an estimator, 46, 128-133
of mean in srs, 43, 46-47, 533
of proportion in srs, 61, 126-128, 532
of total, 67, 130, 533
Coefficient of variation per unit:
definition, 12
and sample size, 125-134, 533
for different shapes of distribution, 133
for different values of universe
proportion, 533
Collapsed strata, 407-408
Combined ratio estimator:
in stratified pps sampling, 201-203
in stratified srs, 173-180
in stratified two-stage srs, 336
Complete enumeration vs. sample, 2, 6
Commuting/travel habits survey, 2
Compound probability, theorem of, 507
Computer-assisted coding (CAC), 489, 496
Computer-assisted data entry and editing (CADE), 499
 Computer-assisted data input (CADI), 489-499
Computer-assisted self interview (CASI), 498
Computer-assisted personal interview (CAPI), 489-481, 496-499
comparison with PAPI, 489
Computer-assisted self interview (CASI), 498
Computer-assisted survey information system (CASIC), 496-499
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Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), 496-497
Computerized self-administered questionnaire (CSAQ), 495
Computers:
use in censuses, 486-488
use in survey sampling, 485-502
in data, collection, editing, and
processing, 488-491
in data dissemination, 492
in data entry, 488-490
in data processing, 477-479, 488-499
in data tabulation, 491-493
in demographic analysis and population projections, 494
in desktop publishing (DTP), 502
general issues, 487
in geographical information systems (GIS), 497-501
integrated systems of data processing
and display, 494, 499
in national development planning, 502
in sample selection, 488
in statistical analysis, 494, 499
in variance estimation, 492, 494
Confidence interval (limits), setting of:
in single-stage sampling, 46-47
in multi-stage sampling, 235
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 314
in stratified single-stage sampling, 152-153
Confidentiality of information, 460
Consistency of estimators, definition, 15, 33
Continuing surveys (see Sampling on successive occasions)
Contraceptive surveys (see also Family planning surveys):
contraceptive prevalence/family planning surveys (CPS/FPS), 442, 566-567, 572-573
Controlled selection, 408-409
Cooperation of respondents in U.K. social survey, 460-461
Coordination with other inquiries, 465
CONCOR (consistency and correction software), 487, 491
Correlation coefficient:
(see also Double sample, Interpenetrating network of sub-samples, Intra-class correlation, Regression
method of estimation, Sampling on successive occasions, Stage variances, Statistical model)
definition, 12
universe values and sample estimators:
in multi-stage sampling, 233-234
in single-stage sampling, 45
in single-stage srswr, 14
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 312
in stratified single-stage sampling, 151-152
COSAS (Coverage Survey Analysis System), 572
Cost function:
in call-backs, 453
in double sampling, 392
in single-stage cluster sampling, 135-136
in single-stage sampling, 14, 45
in stratified single-stage sampling, 208-210, 216
in stratified to-stage design, 337
in three-stage design, 298-299
in two-stage design, 291
Covariance of two random variables definition, 509-510
universe values and sample estimators:
in multi-stage sampling, 231-235
in single-stage pps sampling, 94-96
in single-stage srswor, 11-13, 15, 510-511, 513-519
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 310-314
in stratified single-stage pps sampling, 190-192, 201-203
in stratified single-stage sampling, 149-152
in stratified single stage srs, 158-161, 172-175, 510-512, 514-519
in stratified three-stage srs, 342-346
in stratified two-stage srs, 319-350
in three-stage srs, 258-265
in two-stage srs, 237-258
Coverage Survey Analysis System (COSAS), 572
 CPS/FPS (contraceptive prevalence/family planning surveys), 564, 566-567, 572-573
Cramer-Rao inequality, 16
Crime victimization survey, Hong Kong, 2
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Crop surveys:
allocation in stratified pps sampling, 212-213
in Bengal, 402
errors and biases in, 427-428
eye estimates, use of, 428
in India, 122, 171, 247
internal consistency checks in, 443
multi-phase sampling, 390
in U.K., 122
in United States, 122
use of pps samples:
in multi-stage sampling, 284-287
in single-stage sampling, 106-110
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 375-377
in stratified sampling, 189-201
two-stage srs, 273, 284-287
in West Bengal, 171-172
Cross-sectional survey, 24
CSAQ (Computerized self-administered questionnaire), 497
Cumulative rule for demarcation of strata, 214-215
Current employment survey, U.S., 498
Current population survey, U.S., 4, 125, 139, 310, 394, 397, 412, 476
CV (see Coefficient of variation)
Cyprus, demographic surveys, 2

D
Dalenius-Guerney rule for formation of strata, 214
Dalenius-Hodges rule for formation of strata, 214-215
Data base software programs, 488
Data collection, methods of, 466-467
Data processing, 477-479, 485-502
Death rates, in Chile and Portugal, 429
Deep stratification, 215
deff (design effect), 119, 123-124, 492
Degrees of freedom, 46-47, 152-153, 155
Demarcation of strata, 214-215
equalization of:
cumulative [f(y)]1/2 (Dalenius-Hodges rule), 214-215
NhRh (Dalenius-Guerney rule), 214
Nha Vh (Ekman rule), 214
stratum totals (Mahalanobis-Hansen-Hurwitz-Madow rule), 214
Demographic and health surveys (DHS), 22, 485, 489, 492, 561, 562, 564, 567-568, 572-573
in Cameroon, 122, 390, 461-464
in Cyprus, 2
in Chad, 176, 447
in Germany, 184
in Guinea, 440
in India, 138-139, 152, 167, 170, 195-196, 214, 374, 425, 446, 447, 448
in Liberia, 448
in Malawi, 448
in Morocco, 447
in Mysore (India), 149, 446
in Pakistan, 443, 447
repeated visits in, 443
in Thailand, 447
in Turkey, 443, 447
in the United States (see Current Population Survey, U.S.)
in Upper Volta (Burkina Faso), 447
in Zaire, 425
in Zimbabwe, 446
Design effect (deff), 119, 123-124, 492
Digital mapping, 497
Disability surveys, 416-419
in Canada, 416-418
in Egypt, 416, 418
in India, 416
in Iraq, 418
in Jordan, 418
in Lebanon, 418
in Syria, 418
 in the Netherlands, 416-418
in U.S., 416-418
Double sampling, 391-394
optimum sizes, 392
universe values and sample estimators, 391-393

E
EDI (Electronic data interchange), 497
Editing, 486-489, 491
Efficiency of estimators, 15-16
Egypt, labor force surveys, 397
Ekman rule for demarcation of strata, 214
Election polls, in U.K. and U.S., 5
Electronic data interchange (EDI), 497
Elementary units, definition, 8
Employment surveys:
in Ghana, 122
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in U.S., 2, 125
England and Wales, fertility survey, 428
ENIAC, 487
Enumeration method of data collection, 466-467
Enumerator variance, 438, 449-451
Enumerators:
bias of, 427-428, 438-451
selection and training of, 475-478
EPI (expanded program on immunization) surveys, 571-572
EPI Info, 419, 495-496
EPI Map, 495-496
Epidemiological surveys, 412
(see also Morbidity surveys)
use of IPNS, 445
Error graphs, 404-405
Errors and biases in data and estimates:
classification, 424-429
common to both censuses and samples, 425-429
due to recall, 428
non-response, 427, 451-455
sampling versus non-sampling, 424-425, 449-451
statistical model, complex, 438
statistical model, simple, 429-437
Establishment surveys, 471
Estimate, definition, 13
Estimators, 13-14
criteria for, 14-16
definition, 13-14
Ethiopia:
household budget survey, 251-254
industries survey, 2
European Community, family budget surveys, 562
''Evil eye", fear of, 427-428
Expanded program on immunization (EPI) surveys, 571-572
Expected survey value, 430
External record checks, 439-440
Eye estimates, 428

F
False negatives/positives, 416, 427
Family budget surveys, European Community, 562
(see also Household budget/expenditure surveys) objectives, 460
Family census, U.K., 454
Japan, family income and expenditure survey, 474
Family planning surveys (see also Demographic surveys, Fertility surveys, Focus groups, and WFS):
in Hungary, 482, 557
in India, 442
references, 557
Felligi-Sunter algorithm, 499
Fertility surveys:
adjustment for non-response, 454
in England and Wales, 428
Finite multiplier, finite population correction, and finite sampling correction, 43
First-stage unit (fsu), selection with probability proportional to the number of ssu's:
in stratified two-stage design, 360
in two-stage design, 279-280
Fisheries surveys, 2
Focus groups, 7, 410-413
Food stamp survey, 1
Formation of strata, 213-215
demarcation of strata, 213-215
number of strata, 215
Fractile graphical analysis, 403
Fractional values in stratified sampling, 213, 225-226
Fruit growers inquiry, 453-454
fsu (see First-stage unit)
Fundamental theorems:
in multi-stage sampling, 231-235
in single-stage sampling, 44-46
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 310-315
 in stratified single-stage sampling, 149-152

G
Gain due to stratification:
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 350, 380
in stratified single-stage sampling, 180, 204
Gantt chart, 19, 465
GCHS (Gulf Child Health Survey), 419, 563, 570
Geographical Information System (GIS), 499-501
Germany, micro-census, 184, 397, 450
Ghana, employment survey, 122
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GIS (Geographical Information System), 499-501
Goods traffic survey in Zambia, 310
Great Britain:
general election poll (1970), 5
national market research, 310, 557
social survey, 461
Greece:
agricultural survey, 441
demographic survey, 556
employment survey, 557
Grid, 171-172
Guatemala DHS, Comparison of CAPI and PAPI, 489
Guinea, demographic survey, 440
Gulf Child Health Survey (GCHS), 419, 563, 570
Gulf War (1991), 500

H
HALS (Health and Activity Limitation Survey), Canada, 416-418, 426-427
Hansen-Hurwitz method of estimation in pps sampling, 95
Hansen-Hurwitz method of adjustment for non-response, 453
Hartley-Politz-Simmons method of adjustment for non-response, 454-455
Health surveys in the U.S., 2, 557
Health and Activity Limitation Survey (HALS), Canada, 416-418, 426-427
Hertfordshire, U.K., agricultural survey, 183, 186, 204-205
HIV/AIDS infection surveys, 420-422
Homogeneity, measures of (see Intra-class correlation)
Hong Kong, crime victim survey, 2
Household budget/expenditure survey and family budget surveys, 84
in Ethiopia, 251
use of multi-phase sampling in, 389
response errors in, 456
Household inquiries, 471
Householder method for data collection, 467
Hungary, fertility and family planning study, 491, 557
Hypothetical universe, 50-51, 533-534

I
Image capture technique, 490
Imaging, 497
Inadequate preparation errors, 425-426
Incomplete samples (see Non-response, adjustment for)
Independent events, definition, 507
India:
agricultural surveys, 554
demographic surveys, 556
morbidity survey, 449, 557
National Sample Survey (see Indian National Sample Survey)
population census, 440
socio-economic inquiries, 86
Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 171
Indian National Sample Survey, 138, 167, 170-171, 214, 310, 371, 394, 402-403, 442, 447, 449, 471, 476, 539-
568
Individual survey values, 429-436
Induced abortion survey, North Carolina, 415
InfoShare, 500
In-home radio station rating, 439-440
Integrated microcomputer processing system (IMPS), 493-495, 571
Integrated survey, definition, 470-471
Integrated System of Survey Analysis (ISSA) software, 419, 492, 495, 568, 570, 571
Internal consistency checks, 442-443, 449
Interpenetrating network of subsamples (IPNS), 402-403, 443-446, 471, 477
advanced estimators from sub-samples, 402, 477
estimating variances and margins of uncertainty, 444-446
fractile graphical analysis, 403
testing enumerator differences, 444-446
use in pilot inquiries, 475
Interpretation errors, 429
Interviewer (see Enumerator)
Intra-class correlation coefficient, 90
in cluster sampling, 118-124, 137-138
in response errors, 438, 444-445
 in two-stage sampling, 291-292
Inverse sampling, 399-401
of continuous data, 400-401
for proportions, 399-400
Israel, labor force surveys, 397
Item count method, 415

J
Jackknife method of variance estimation, 406-407, 495
Japan, national survey of family income and expenditure, 476
statistical database (SISMAC), 490
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K
KAP (knowledge, attitude and practice of family planning) studies, 412-413, 482 (see also CPS/FPS, Family
planning surveys, DHS, WFS)

L
Labor force surveys:
in Canada, 397
in Egypt, 397
in Israel, 397
in U.S. (see Current employment survey and Current population survey)
Lahiri's method of pps selection, 97
Lattice sampling, 415-416
Legal basis of surveys, 460
Liberia, demographic survey, 448
Lincoln index, 398, 447
Linear systematic sampling, 81-84
Line sampling, 415-416
Literary Digest poll (1930), 5
Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), 561, 569
Longitudinal survey, 24
Loss due to errors in estimation, 135
Loss function, 135
Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet, 499
LSMS (Living Standards Measurement Study), 561, 569

M
Mahalanobis-Hansen-Hurwitz-Madow rule for demarcation of strata, 214
Mail inquiry, 452-454, 464
adjustment for non-response, 452-554
Malawi, demographic survey, 448
MapInfo, 500
Mapping work, 465
Market research (see Opinion and marketing research)
Matching fraction, in sampling on successive occasions, 395-396
Mathematical expectation, 14, 33, 507-508
Mauritania, PAPCHILD, 572-573
Maximum likelihood estimator, 398, 448
Mean square error:
control of, 449-451
definition, 16-17, 434-437
effect of sample size on, 494-450
Mean, universe values and sample estimators of
(see also Double sampling, Non-response, Ratio method of estimation, Regression method of estimation,
Sampling on successive occasions, Statistical model, Systematic sampling)
in single-stage pps sampling, 94-95
in single-stage srswor, 11-14, 29-30, 31-38, 49-50, 508-521
in single-stage srswr, 11-14, 29-30, 31-38, 47-49, 508-521
in stratified single-stage pps sampling, 190-192
in stratified single-stage srs, 159-161, 524-526
in stratified three-stage srs, 342-344
in stratified two-stage srs, 322-324
in three stage srs, 262-264
in two-stage srs, 235-243, 244-247
Measures of homogeneity (see Intra-class correlation)
Micro-census sample survey, Germany, 184, 397, 450
Minimum variance estimator, 16
Mobile population, estimation, 398-399
Morbidity surveys, 449, 557
in Canada, 416-418, 426-427
in India, 416, 449, 557
in U.K., 439
in U.S., 427, 429, 439, 557
Morocco:
demographic survey, 2, 447, 557
trachoma survey, 557
Multi-country survey programs, 559-573
contraceptive prevalence/family planning surveys(CPS/FPS), 566-567, 572-573
coordination among multi-country survey programs, 564-565
demographic and health surveys (DHS), 567-568, 572-573
expanded program on immunization (EPI) surveys, 571-572
funding, 561-562
 Gulf Child Health Survey (GCHS), 570
inter-country data comparability, 562-563
Living Standards Measurement Study, 569
major issues, 559-565
management, 561
National Household Survey Capability Programme (NHSCP), 568-569
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[Multi-country survey programs]:
non-sampling errors, 563-564
objectives, 559
Pan-Arab Project for Child Development (PAPCHILD), 570-571
sampling errors, 563-564
Social Dimensions of Adjustment (SDA) Programme, 569-570
technical cooperation among developing countries, 565
transfer of technology, 559-561
World Fertility Survey (WFS), 565-566
Multi-media kiosk, interactive, 499
Multi-phase sampling, 389-394
Cameroon level of living survey, 390
reasons for the use of, 389-390
in multi-subject integrated surveys, 470-471
Multiple stratification, 215
Multipliers (see Weighting factors)
Multipliers, rounding off, 143-144
Multi-purpose survey, definition, 470
Multi-stage sampling, 10, 22-24, 327-306
(see also Stratified multi-stage sampling)
allocation of sample to different stages, 289-300
confidence limits, 235
definition, 470
fundamental theorems in, 231-235
pps design, 271-288
reasons for, 229-231
self-weighting designs, 301-306
size of sample and allocation to different stages, 289-300
srs, 237-274
stage variances, 235, 292-296
structure of, 231
in multi-subject integrated surveys, 470
Multi-subject surveys, definition, 470
N
National Household Survey Capability Program (NHSCP), 560-564, 568
National Market Research Survey, U.K., 310, 557
National Sample Survey, India (see Indian Sample Survey)
Neyman allocation, 210-211, 523-528
Nomads, enumeration of, 399
Non-random samples, 6-7
Non-response:
adjustment for:
by selecting random substitutes from the responding units, 453
by call-backs, 453-454
without call-backs, 454-455
effects of, 451-452
Non-sampling errors and biases (see also Errors and biases in data and estimates)
control of, 448-451
versus sampling errors, 449-451
Normal distribution:
in estimating variance, 133
in multi-stage sampling, 235
in setting probability limits in single-stage sampling, 47
in stratified single-stage sampling, 152
table of selected values, 530
Norway, family budget surveys, 2
Not-at-homes, 427, 453-454
Notations and symbols, 503-505
Number of children born:
data collection, 442, 468
errors in reporting, 426, 427-428, 443
Nutritional status of children surveys, 418-419
in Bangladesh, 419
software for use in, 419

O
Objectives of surveys, 460
Observational errors (see Response errors)
OCR (see Optical character recognition)
OMR (see Optical mark reader)
 Opinion and marketing research focus groups, 7, 410-413
self-weighting design in multi-stage sampling, 301-306
self-weighting design in stratified multi-stage sampling, 384
multi-stage sampling in, 230, 306
in U.K., 23, 555
in U.S., 555
Optical character recognition (OCR), 485, 497-498
Optical mark reader (OMR), 490
Optimal cluster size, 136-138
Optimal sample size, 125
Optimum allocations:
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 379-380
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[Optimum allocations]:
in stratified single-stage sampling, 207-215, 526-528
Optimum matching fraction in sampling on successive occasions, 395-397
Optimum sizes:
in call-backs, 453
in double sampling, 392
Optimum vs. self-weighting design, stratified multi-stage sampling, 384-385
Ordered (Murthy) estimator in pps sampling without replacement, 95

P
Pakistan, demographic survey, 2, 443, 447, 556
Pan Arab Project for Child Development (PAPCHILD), 419, 564, 570-573
Paperless fax image reporting system (PFIRS), 495-496
PAPI (see Pencil-and-paper interview)
Parameters, definition, 11-13
Parks, use of, survey, 2
PC-EDIT, 489, 496
PDE (Prepared data entry), 498-499
Pencil-and-paper interview, 470, 489, 491
comparison with CAPI, 489
Periodicity:
of surveys, 472
of units in systematic sampling, 80
PERT (see Project evaluation and review technique)
Peru:
agricultural census, 402
demographic survey, 2
PES (see Post-enumeration surveys)
PGE (see Population growth estimation studies)
Pilot inquiries, 472-473
Planning, execution, and analysis of surveys, 459-483
administrative organization, 465
budget and cost control, 461-464
cartographic work, 465
 coordination with other inquiries, 465
data collection methods, 466-467
data processing, 477-479, 485-502
enumerators, selection/training, 475
legal basis, 453
objectives of surveys, 460
pilot inquiries and pretests, 474-475
project management, 465
publicity and cooperation of respondents, 460-461
questionnaire preparation, 467-468
report preparation, 479-482
supervision, 476
survey design, 469-481
tabulation programs, 466
Poisson distribution, for determining sample size, 127-128
PopMap, 501
Population, 8 (see also Universe)
Population analysis spreadsheet software, 494
Population census:
in Canada, 416, 440-441
in India, 440
in Sierra Leone, 441
in Swaziland, 441
in U.K., 440, 441
in U.S, 440, 441
in U.S.S.R., 441
in Yugoslavia, 429
Population growth estimation (PGE) studies, 447-448
in Liberia, Malawi, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey, 447
Population sampling (see Demographic sample surveys)
Portugal, death rate in, 429
Post-enumeration surveys (PES) of population censuses (see also Resurveys)
in Canada, 3, 441
in China, 3
in France, 3
in India, 440
 in U.K., 440
in U.S., 3, 440
in U.S.S.R., 441
Post-stratification (see Stratification after sampling)
pps (see Probability proportional to size)
Precision of estimators, 15-16
Pregnancy history, data collection, 443
Pregnancy outcome, data collection, 415
Prepared data entry (PDE), 498-499
Pretests, 7, 474-475
Principal steps in a survey, 17-19, 460-482
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Probability:
elements of, 505-510
proportional to size sampling, single-stage (see Single-stage pps sampling)
proportional to square, cube, and fourth power of value of ancillary variables, 96
proportional to square root of value of ancillary variable, 96
samples, types, 6, 9
versus purposive sample, 6-7
Processing data, 427-429, 485-502
errors in, 430
Product notation, 21, 503
Project evaluation and review technique (PERT), 465
Project management software, 19, 465
Proportion of units, universe values and sample estimators of:
in inverse sampling, 399-401
in single-stage sampling, 12, 518-519
in stratified single-stage srs, 172-173
in stratified three-stage srs, 344-346
in stratified two-stage srs, 324-326
in three-stage srs, 264-265
in two-stage srs, 248-250
Proportional allocation in stratified single-stage sampling, 161, 211, 224-225
Proxy and self-interviews, 443
Publication, errors in, 429
Publicity on surveys, 460-461
Purposive samples, 6-7

Q
Quality control techniques in survey operations, 449
Quattro Pro spreadsheet, 499
Quenouille-Murthy-Nanjamma method of almost unbiased ratio estimator, 73
Questionnaire and schedule definition, 467-468
precoded, 475
preparation, 467-9
QUICKTAB software, 490, 493
Quota sample, 7

R
Random groups, in estimating variances and covariances, 64-65, 404
Random sample numbers, 50
tables of, 528-529
Random sampling, 9
Random variable, definition, 8, 505
Range, estimating variance from, 133
Rare events, estimation of, 401
Ratio method of estimation, 71-76
correction for bias, 73-4, 517-519
in double sampling, 394
in pps sampling, 109-110
in single-stage srs, 424
in srs, 71-76
in stratified pps sampling, 201-203
in stratified srs, 173-180
in stratified three-stage srs, 347-350
in stratified two-stage srs, 328-336
in survey design, 470-471
in three-stage srs, 265
in two-stage srs, 250-251
Ratio of random variables, 42
in srs, 517-519
Ratio of ratio estimators of two totals in stratified single-stage pps sampling, 203
in stratified single-stage srs, 176-180
in stratified two-stage srs, 337
Ratio of two totals, universe values and sample estimators of:
in unstratified multi-stage sampling, 231-235
in single-stage pps sampling, 95
in single-stage srswor, 12, 14, 49-50, 517-519
in single-stage srswr, 12, 14, 47-49, 517-519
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 312
in stratified single-stage pps sampling, 191-192
in stratified single-stage sampling, 151, 154
stratified single-stage srs, 158-160
 stratified three-stage srs, 342
stratified two-stage srs, 321-322
three-stage srs, 261-262
two-stage srs, 243-244
Readership preference surveys, 466
Recall analysis/lapse, 428, 446-447
Recording unit, 9
Regression method of estimation:
in double sampling, 391-392
in general sample designs, 471
in sampling on successive occasions, 395-397, 476-477
in srs, 76-78
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Relative standard error (see Coefficient of variation)
Relative variance, 12
Repeated visits, in demographic inquires, 443
Reports, preparation of, 437-438
Response errors:
definition and examples, 427-428
measurement methods, 438-448
Resurvey, 440-441
Reverse record checks, 439
Rights of the Child, 418
Rounding off of multipliers, 143-144

S
Sample design:
choice of, 470-471
definition, 10
Sample estimate (see Estimate)
Sample estimator (see Estimator)
Sample size:
effect on errors, 449-451
estimation of variance for determining, 133
in multi-stage designs, 289-300
required to ensure desired CV in srs, 531
in single-stage sampling, 136-140
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 379-380
in stratified sampling, 207-222
for sub-division of universe, 132-133
Sample mean, distribution of, in srs, 33-38, 432-434
Sample surveys (see Surveys)
Sampling, advantages, 4-5
Sampling:
basic concepts, 1-26
examples, 1-2
history, 21
 limitations, 5-6
relationship with complete enumeration, 6
versus complete enumeration, 2
Sampling, applications:
agriculture, forestry and fisheries, 22, 182-183
auditing and accounting, 22
biological and geological studies, 22
business research, 22
child health, nutrition and immunization, 418-419, 570-572
demography, 22, 480, 567-568
disability, 416-418
fertility and family planning, 483, 565-567
health and morbidity, 23, 583, 567-568
HIV/AIDS infection, 420-422
household and social survey, 23, 483, 568-569
living standards, 569
opinion survey and market research, 23
sexuality, 483
social research, 23
telephone survey, 23
traffic, 23
women's status, 419-420
Sampling biases and errors, 424-425
Sampling fraction:
in multi-stage srs, 235
in single-stage srs, 42-43
Sampling frames, 9, 471-472
Sampling method, definition, 1
Sampling on successive occasions, 394-397, 468
estimating change in mean values, 394-395
estimating mean of two occasions, 395
estimating mean on subsequent occasion, 395-396
rotation or partial replacement of units, 396-397
use of computers in applying regression method of estimation, 476-477
Sampling plan, definition, 10
Sampling unit, choice of:
 in controlling non-sampling errors, 449-450
in sampling on successive occasions, 397
in single-stage sampling, 115-124
Sampling variance (see Variance, universe values and sample estimators in)
Sampling versus non-sampling errors, evaluation and control, 449-451
Sampling with replacement (see Multi-stage sampling, pps sampling, Simple random sampling, Single- stage
sampling, and Stratified multi-stage sampling)
Sampling with varying probabilities (see pps sampling)
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Sampling without replacement:
in pps sampling, 95-96
in simple random sampling, 13-14, 39-50
in stratified srs, 160-161, 184
in two-stage srs, 292-294
SAS (statistical software), 499
Schedule, definition, 445-446
Screening questions and probes, 449
SDA (see Social Dimension of Adjustment Program)
Selection:
in adjustment for non-response of random substitutes from the responding units, 453
by call-backs, 453-454
of a random pair of units from each stratum, 404
of two first-stage sample units from each stratum in stratified multi-stage samples, 315, 403-404
of two sample units from each stratum, 153-155, 404
Self-weighting designs:
advantages, 141, 226
in opinion and marketing research, 305-306, 384
in pps sampling, 142-143
processing of data, 476
in simple random sampling, 141-142
in single-stage sampling, 141-144
and srs, 382-383
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 381-385
in stratified pps sampling, 225
in stratified single-stage sampling, 223-226
in stratified srs, 223-224
in stratified two-stage design with pps at the tabulation stage in multi-stage sampling, 301-306
in two-stage srs, 245
variance computation in, 404
versus optimum designs in stratified multi-stage sampling, 384-385
Separate ratio estimate:
in stratified single-stage pps, 201-203
 in stratified single-stage srs, 173-180
in stratified multi-stage srs, 347-351
Sexuality survey, 442
Sierra Leone, population census, 441
Simple random sampling, single-stage (see Single-stage simple random sampling with replacement, Single-stage
simple random sampling without replacement)
Singapore, demographic survey, 2
Single-stage sampling, 10, 27-144
confidence limits, 46-47
Single-stage pps sampling with replacement, 91-114
in crop surveys, 106-109
definition, 91
fundamental theorems, 44-46, 94-95
method of selection, 96-98
ratio method of estimation, 109-110
self-weighting design, 142-143
size of sample, 138-139
universe values and sample estimators of total, mean, and ratio of two totals, 94-95
variance, 94-95
proofs, 519-521
Single-stage pps sampling without replacement, 95-96
ordered estimator, 95
unordered estimator, 95-96
Single-stage simple random sampling without replacement (srswor) 29-69
definition, 30-31
method of selection, example, 50-51
ratio method of estimation, 71-76
regression method of estimation, 76-78
self-weighting design, 141-142
size of sample, 126-130
universe values and sample estimators:
of coefficient of variation, 12, 30, 43
of correlation coefficient, 12
of covariance, 12, 40
of mean, 11, 31-42, 47-49, 511-513
of proportion of units, 12, 42, 516-517
 of ratio of two totals, 12, 42, 517-519
of total, 11, 42, 513
of variances, 12, 31-33, 37-38, 508-519
Single-stage simple random sampling with replacement (srswr), 29-69
definition, 30-31
method of random groups for estimating variances and covariances, 64-66
method of selection, examples, 50-58
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[Single-stage simple random sampling with replacement (srswr)]:
ratio method of estimation, 71-76
regression method of estimation, 76-79
self-weighting design, 141-142
size of sample, 125-140
universe values and sample estimators:
of coefficient of variation, 20, 42-44
of correlation coefficient, 12, 14
of covariance, 12, 14, 48
of mean, 11, 13, 29, 508-510
of proportion of units, 12, 60-64, 516-517
of ratio of two totals, 12, 14, 48-50, 517-519
of sub-universes, 58-60
of total, 14, 47-49, 513
of variance, 11, 13-14, 30, 42-44, 59-62, 508-510
SISMAC (Statistical information system of management and coordinating agency) data base in Japan, 490
Size, definition, 23-34
Social Dimension of Adjustment (SDA) Program, 561, 563, 569-570
Socio-economic inquiries in India, 86
Social survey, U.K., 461
Som method of recall analysis, 446-447
Specialized surveys, definition, 470-471
SPSS, SPSS/PC+ software (statistical analysis software), 495, 499
srs (see Simple random sampling)
srswor (see Simple random sampling without replacement)
srswr (see Simple random sampling with replacement)
ssu (see Second-stage unit)
Stage variances, estimation of in two-stage srs, 292-299
STAMP (Standardized technologies assisted mail processing), 497
Standard error, 46 (see also Variance)
of estimates in srs, 46-47
Standardized technologies assisted mail processing (STAMP), 497
Stata (statistical software), 495
Statistical analysis software, 499
Statistical models of errors and biases in data and estimates, 429-438
Stochastic variables, definition, 507
Strata:
demarcation of, 214-215
formation of, 213-215
number of, 215
Stratification:
gain in efficiency in pps sampling, 204
gain in efficiency in srs, 148, 180-181
at lower stages of sampling, 148-149, 351
principles of, 207
reasons for, 147-149
Stratification after sampling:
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 351
in stratified single-stage sampling, 149
in stratified single-stage srs, 181-182
Stratification variable, 181
Stratified four- and higher-stage srs, 351
Stratified multi-stage pps sampling, 355-377, 379-389
Stratified multi-stage sampling, 307-385
confidence limits, 314
crop surveys, 375-377
fundamental theorems in, 310-315
gain due to stratification, 390
optimum allocations, 379-380
reasons for, 309-310
selecting two fsu's in each stratum, 315
self-weighting designs, 381-385
versus optimum designs, 384
size of sample and allocation to
different strata and stages, 379-380
stratification after sampling, 351
Stratified multi-stage srs, 317-353, 379-380, 381-382
gain due to stratification, 380
Stratified single-stage pps sampling, 147-156, 189-229 (see also Stratified single-stage sampling)
 crop surveys, 197-200
gain due to stratification, 204
self-weighting design, 223-228
size of sample and allocation to different strata, 207-222
structure of, 189-190
universe values and sample estimators of total, mean, and ratio of two totals, 189-192
ratio method of estimation, combined/ separate ratio estimates, 191-192
ratio of ratio estimators of two totals, 203
of variance, 189-192
proofs, 524
Stratified single-stage sampling, 147-228
allocation proportional to stratum total, 211
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[Stratified single-stage sampling]:
allocation of total sample size to different strata, 207-212
confidence limits, 152-153
different selection probabilities in different strata, 196
fundamental theorems in, 149-152
Neyman allocation, 210-211
optimum allocations, 208-210
proportional (Bowley) allocation, 211
selection of two units from each stratum, 153-155
self-weighting design, 223-228
size of sample, 216-217
Stratified single-stage srs, 157-187, 207-228
(see also Stratified single-stage sampling)
gain due to stratification, 180-181
ratio method of estimation, 178-180
self-weighting design, 223-224
size of sample and allocation to different strata, 207-222
structure of, 157
universe values and sample estimators of mean, total, and ratio of two totals, 158-172, 522-528
of proportion of units, 172-175
of ratio of ratio estimators of two totals, 176-180
of variance, 160-162
Stratified two-stage design with pps and srs, 359-360
fsu's selected with probability proportional to number of ssu's, 360
self-weighting design, 381-385
Stratified two-stage pps design, 356-357
Stratified two-stage srs, 317-337
allocation to different strata and stages, 379-380
optimum allocations, 379-380
self-weighting design, 381-385
structure, 319
universe values and sample estimators of total, mean and ratio of two totals, 317-324
of proportions of units, 324-326
 ratio method of estimation, combined and separate estimators, 328-336
of ratio of ratio estimators of two totals, 337
of stage-variances, 379-380
of sub-universes, 324
Stratified varying probability sampling (see Stratified single-stage pps sampling)
Student's t-distribution (see t-distribution)
Study variable:
definition, 8
Substitute estimates, errors in construction of, 429
Sub-universes:
sample sizes for in single-stage sampling, 132
universe values and sample estimators:
in single-stage srs, 8, 58-60
in stratified three-stage srs, 344
in stratified two-stage srs, 317-337
in three-stage srs, 264
in two-stage srs, 247
SUDAAN (see Survey data analysis software)
Summation notation, 19-20
Supervision, 476
number of enumerators/supervisor, 476
Survey calendar, 465
Survey data analysis (SUDAAN) software, 492
Survey design:
definition, 10
types, 469-471
Survey of level of living, Cameroon, 390
Survey organization, permanence of, 463, 472
Survey periods, 474
Surveys:
principal steps, 17
examples of, 1-2
Suva, family budget survey, 2
Swaziland, population census, 441
Symbols and notations, 19-21, 503-504
SYSTAT (statistical software), 497
 Systematic sampling, 9, 81-89, 97-98
circular, 82-83
comparison with srs, 85-86
linear, 82-3
mean, 83-85
periodicity of units, 83
pps, 97-98
variance, 4-5

T
Table Retrieval System software, 493
Tabulation programs, 464
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TDE/VRE (Touch-tone data entry and voice recognition), 495
t-distribution:
selected values, 532
use of in setting probability limits:
in single-stage sampling, 46-47
in multi- stage sampling, 235
in stratified single-stage sampling, 152-153
Telephone coincidental method, 439-440
Terms and definitions, 8-9
Thailand, demographic survey, 2, 447
Theorems in sampling, proofs, 508-526
Three-stage designs, sample size and allocation to different stages, 298
with pps, srs and srs, 282-283
Three-stage pps design, 182, 199, 273-274, 298-299
size of sample and allocation to different stages, 298-299
universe values and estimators:
of total, 273-274
of variance, 298-300
Three-stage srs, 258-267, 273-274
ratio method of estimation, 265, 273-275
size of sample and allocation to different stages, 296-299
structure of, 260
universe values and sample estimators:
of covariance, 262-265
of mean, 262-264
of proportion of units, 264-265
of ratio of two totals, 261-262
of stage-variances, 298
of sub-universes, 264
of total, 260-261
of variance, 261-265, 298-299
TIGER mapping software, 498
Time-reference period for data, 467
Total probability, theorem of, 504-505
Totals, universe values and sample estimators:
in multi-stage sampling, 231-235
in single-stage pps sampling 94-96, 519-521
in single-stage srswor, 11, 49, 508-515
in single-stage srswr, 11, 13, 47-48, 508-515
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 310-315
in stratified single-stage pps sampling, 190-192, 524
in stratified single-stage sampling, 149-153
in stratified single-stage srs, 158-161, 522-524
in stratified three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs, 367-370
in stratified three-stage srs, 338-357
in stratified two-stage design with pps and srs, 359-367
in stratified two-stage pps design, 355-356
in stratified two-stage srs, 317-338
in three-stage srs, 258-261
in two-stage pps design, 271-272
in two-stage srs, 237-243
Touch-tone data entry/voice recognition, 495
Trachoma study, Morocco, 557
Traffic surveys, 23
Transderivational search, 465
Tufalu, fisheries survey, 2
Turkey, demographic surveys, 447
Two-stage designs, 10
structure of, 231-232
Two-stage design with pps and srs, 273-274
fsu's selected with probability proportional to the number of ssu's, 279-280
self- weighting design, 303-305
Two-stage pps design, 271, 289-292, 302
crop surveys, 284-287
self-weighting design, 303-305
size of sample and allocation to different stages, 289-292
universe values and sample estimators:
of total, 271-273
of variance, 272, 289-294
 Two-stage srs, 237-251, 289-298, 302-303
ratio method of estimation, 250-251
self-weighting design, 302-303
size of sample and allocation to different stages, 289-292
structure of, 238
universe values and sample estimators of covariance, 243-246
of mean, 244-247
of proportion of units, 248-251
of ratio of two totals, 243-244
of stage variances, 292-294
of sub-universes, 247
of total, 237-243
of variance, 238-251, 289-298
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Types of surveys, 467-469

U
United Kingdom:
election polls, 5
family census, 454
morbidity surveys, 439
population census, 440
social survey, 459
Unbiased estimators, definition, 14, 39
Unit of analysis, 8
Unitary checks, 440
Unite, finite and infinite, definitions, 8
Unordered estimator in pps sampling without replacement, 95-96
Unrestricted srs, 29 (see also Single-stage srs)
Unweighted estimates, use of, 424-425
Universe, 8
Unordered (Raj) estimator in pps sampling without replacement, 95-96
Upper Volta, demographic survey, 447
United States:
agricultural surveys, 404, 443
current population survey, 1, 4-5, 139, 310
income and expenditure surveys, 2
election polls, 5
morbidity surveys, 427, 439
National Health Survey, 557
population and housing censuses, 440, 441
tuberculosis survey, 426
U.S.S.R., population census, 441

V
Vanity effect, 427
Variable, definition, 8
Variance of random variables, 507-508
Variance, universe values and sample estimators:
 in multi-stage sampling, 231-235
in single-stage sampling, 44-48
in single-stage srswor and srswr, 12-14, 29-42, 510-517
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 310-315
in stratified single-stage pps sampling, 190-192, 207-210
in stratified single-stage sampling, 149-151
in stratified single-stage srs, 159-161, 172-180, 524-526
in stratified three-stage pps, 357-358
in stratified three-stage srs, 338-351
in stratified two-stage pps design, 355-357
in stratified two-stage srs, 317-337
in three-stage design with pps, srs, and srs, 282-283
in three-stage pps, 273-275, 298-299
in three-stage srs, 258-265, 298-299
in two-stage design with pps and srs, 275-280
in two-stage pps design, 271-273, 289-292
in two-stage srs, 237-251, 289-298
Variance computations:
simplified methods of, 403-405
method of random groups, 404
selection of a random pair of units from each stratum, 404
use of error graphs, 404
use of computers, 419, 476-477, 490, 492, 493, 566, 568, 569
Variance function:
in cluster sampling, 116-119, 521-522
in double sampling, 393
in sampling on successive occasions, 395-396
in single-stage sampling, 126-128
in stratified single-stage sampling, 207-208, 216-217, 522-524
in stratified two-stage sampling, 329-380
in three-stage design, 298-299
in two-stage design, 292-294
Variate, definition, 8
Varying probability sampling (see pps sampling)
Viet Nam, 19
Institute of Computer Science, 501
 W
Weighting factors:
in multi-stage sampling, 234-235, 301-306
in single-stage sampling, 142
in stratified multi-stage sampling, 301-383
WFS (see World Fertility Survey)
WISTAT (UN data base on women), 419
Women's status, survey, 419-420
World Fertility Survey (WFS), 22, 560-561, 564-566, 571-573
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X
XTable, 492

Y
Yield surveys (see Crop surveys)
Yugoslavia, population census, 429

Z
Zambia, sample survey on goods traffic movement, 310
Zimbabwe:
demographic survey, 3
family budget survey, 2
fisheries survey, 2
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