Practice Paper 3.

1 [226 marks]
1a. [2 marks]
An estate manager is responsible for stocking a small lake with fish. He begins by
introducing 1000 fish into the lake and monitors their population growth to determine the
likely carrying capacity of the lake.
After one year an accurate assessment of the number of fish in the lake is taken and it is
found to be 1200.
Let 𝑁 be the number of fish 𝑡 years after the fish have been introduced to the lake.
Initially it is assumed that the rate of increase of 𝑁 will be constant.
Use this model to predict the number of fish in the lake when 𝑡 = 8.

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to
aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new MAA course. There may be
minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam papers.
𝑁(8) = 1000 + 200 × 8 M1
= 2600 A1

[2 marks]
1b. [2 marks]
When 𝑡 = 8 the estate manager again decides to estimate the number of fish in the lake. To
do this he first catches 300 fish and marks them, so they can be recognized if caught again.
These fish are then released back into the lake. A few days later he catches another 300
fish, releasing each fish after it has been checked, and finds 45 of them are marked.
Assuming the proportion of marked fish in the second sample is equal to the proportion of
marked fish in the lake, show that the estate manager will estimate there are now 2000 fish
in the lake.

Markscheme
45 300
= M1A1
300 𝑁

𝑁 = 2000 AG
[2 marks]
1c. [2 marks]
Let 𝑋 be the number of marked fish caught in the second sample, where 𝑋 is considered to
be distributed as B(𝑛, 𝑝). Assume the number of fish in the lake is 2000.
Write down the value of 𝑛 and the value of 𝑝.

Markscheme
300
𝑛 = 300, 𝑝 = 2000 = 0.15 A1A1

[2 marks]
1d. [1 mark]
State an assumption that is being made for 𝑋 to be considered as following a binomial
distribution.

Markscheme
Any valid reason for example: R1
Marked fish are randomly distributed, so 𝑝 constant.
Each fish caught is independent of previous fish caught

[1 mark]
1e. [2 marks]
The estate manager decides that he needs bounds for the total number of fish in the lake.
Show that an estimate for Var(𝑋) is 38.25.

Markscheme
Var(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝) M1
300 1700
= 300 × 2000 × 2000 A1

= 38.25 AG

[2 marks]
1f. [2 marks]
𝑋
Hence show that the variance of the proportion of marked fish in the sample, Var (300), is
0.000425.

Markscheme
𝑋 Var(𝑋)
Var (300) = M1A1
3002

= 0.000425 AG

[2 marks]
1g. [2 marks]
The estate manager feels confident that the proportion of marked fish in the lake will be
within 1.5 standard deviations of the proportion of marked fish in the sample and decides
these will form the upper and lower bounds of his estimate.
Taking the value for the variance given in (d) (ii) as a good approximation for the true
variance, find the upper and lower bounds for the proportion of marked fish in the lake.

Markscheme
0.15 ± 1.5√0.000425 (M1)
0.181 and 0.119 A1

[2 marks]
1h. [2 marks]
Hence find upper and lower bounds for the number of fish in the lake when 𝑡 = 8.

Markscheme
300 300
= 0.181 … , = 0.119 … M1
𝑁 𝑁

Lower bound 1658 upper bound 2519 A1

[2 marks]
1i. [2 marks]
Given this result, comment on the validity of the linear model used in part (a).
Markscheme
Linear model prediction falls outside this range so unlikely to be a good model R1A1

[2 marks]
1j. [5 marks]
The estate manager now believes the population of fish will follow the logistic model
𝐿
𝑁(𝑡) = 1+𝐶𝑒 −𝑘𝑡 where 𝐿 is the carrying capacity and 𝐶, 𝑘 > 0.

The estate manager would like to know if the population of fish in the lake will eventually
reach 5000.
Assuming a carrying capacity of 5000 use the given values of 𝑁(0) and 𝑁(1) to calculate
the parameters 𝐶 and 𝑘.

Markscheme
5000
1000 = M1
1+𝐶

𝐶=4 A1
5000
1200 = M1
1+4𝑒 −𝑘
3800
𝑒 −𝑘 = 4×1200 (M1)

𝑘 = −ln(0.7916 … ) = 0.2336 … A1

[5 marks]
1k. [2 marks]
Use these parameters to calculate the value of 𝑁(8) predicted by this model.

Markscheme
5000
𝑁(8) = 1+4𝑒 −0.2336×8 = 3090 M1A1

Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 3000.

[2 marks]
1l. [2 marks]
Comment on the likelihood of the fish population reaching 5000.

Markscheme
This is much higher than the calculated upper bound for 𝑁(8) so the rate of growth of the
fish is unlikely to be sufficient to reach a carrying capacity of 5000. M1R1

[2 marks]
2a. [3 marks]
This question will connect Markov chains and directed graphs.
Abi is playing a game that involves a fair coin with heads on one side and tails on the other,
together with two tokens, one with a fish’s head on it and one with a fish’s tail on it. She
starts off with no tokens and wishes to win them both. On each turn she tosses the coin, if
she gets a head she can claim the fish’s head token, provided that she does not have it
already and if she gets a tail she can claim the fish’s tail token, provided she does not have it
already. There are 4 states to describe the tokens in her possession; A: no tokens, B: only a
fish’s head token, C: only a fish’s tail token, D: both tokens. So for example if she is in state B
and tosses a tail she moves to state D, whereas if she tosses a head she remains in state B.
Draw a transition state diagram for this Markov chain problem.

Markscheme

M1A2
[3 marks]
2b. [1 mark]
Explain why for any transition state diagram the sum of the out degrees of the directed
edges from a vertex (state) must add up to +1.

Markscheme
You must leave the state along one of the edges directed out of the vertex. R1
[1 mark]
2c. [3 marks]
Write down the transition matrix M, for this Markov chain problem.

Markscheme
0 0 0 0
1 1
0 0
2 2
1
0
1
0 M1A2
2 2
1 1
(0 2 2
1)

[3 marks]
2d. [4 marks]
Find the steady state probability vector for this Markov chain problem.

Markscheme
0 0 0 0
1 1
0 0 𝑤 𝑤
2 2 𝑥 𝑥 𝑤 𝑥 𝑤 𝑦 𝑥 𝑦
1
0
1
0 ( ) = ( ) ⇒ 0 = 𝑤, + 2 = 𝑥, + 2 = 𝑦, +2+𝑧=𝑧 M1
2 2
𝑦 𝑦 2 2 2
1 1 𝑧 𝑧
(0 2 2
1)

0
0
⇒ 𝑤 = 0, 𝑥 = 0, , 𝑦 = 0, 𝑧 = 1 since 𝑤 + 𝑥 + 𝑦 + 𝑧 = 1 so steady state vector is ( ).
0
1
A1R1A1
[4 marks]
2e. [1 mark]
Explain which part of the transition state diagram confirms this.
Markscheme
There is a loop with probability of 1 from state D to itself. A1
[1 mark]
2f. [2 marks]
Explain why having a steady state probability vector means that the matrix M must have an
eigenvalue of 𝜆 = 1.

Markscheme
Let the steady state probability vector be s then Ms = 1s showing that (\lambda = 1\) is an
eigenvalue with associated eigenvector of s. A1R1
[2 marks]
2g. [4 marks]
𝑎𝑛
𝑏𝑛
After 𝑛 throws the probability vector, for the 4 states, is given by 𝐯𝑛 = (𝑐 ) where the
𝑛
𝑑𝑛
numbers represent the probability of being in that particular state, e.g. 𝑏𝑛 is the probability
1
0
of being in state B after 𝑛 throws. Initially 𝐯0 = ( ).
0
0
Find 𝐯1 , 𝐯2 , 𝐯3 , 𝐯4 .

Markscheme
0 0 0 0
1 1 1
1
4 8 16
2
𝐯1 = 1 , 𝐯2 = 1 , 𝐯3 = 1 , 𝐯4 = 1 A1A1A1A1
4 8 16
2 2 6 14
(0 ) (4 ) (8 ) (16)
[4 marks]
2h. [2 marks]
Hence, deduce the form of 𝐯𝑛 .
Markscheme
0
1
2𝑛
𝐯𝑛 = 1 A2
2𝑛
2𝑛 −2
( 2𝑛 )
[2 marks]
2i. [2 marks]
Explain how your answer to part (f) fits with your answer to part (c).

Markscheme
0
0
lim 𝐯𝑛 = ( ) the steady state probability vector M1R1
𝑛→∞ 0
1
[2 marks]
2j. [4 marks]
Find the minimum number of tosses of the coin that Abi will have to make to be at least
95% certain of having finished the game by reaching state C.

Markscheme
2𝑛 −2 2
Require ≥ 0.95 ⇒ 2𝑛 ≤ 0.05 ⇒ 𝑛 = 6 (e.g. by use of table) R1M1A2
2𝑛

[4 marks]
3a. [8 marks]
This question will diagonalize a matrix and apply this to the transformation of a curve.
5 1

Let the matrix 𝑀 = (21 2

5).
2 2

Find the eigenvalues for 𝑀. For each eigenvalue find the set of associated eigenvectors.

Markscheme
5 1
−𝜆 5 2 1 2 5 1
|21 2
5 | = 0 ⇒ (2 − 𝜆) − (2) = 0 ⇒ 2 − 𝜆 = ± 2 ⇒ 𝜆 = 2 or 3 M1M1A1A1
−𝜆
2 2
 1 1
𝑝 0 1
𝜆=2 (21 2
1) (𝑞 ) = ( ) ⇒ 𝑞 = −𝑝 eigenvalues are of the form 𝑡 ( ) M1A1
0 −1
2 2

1 1
− 𝑝 0 1
𝜆=3 (1 2 2
1) (𝑞 ) =( )⇒𝑞=𝑝 eigenvalues are of the form 𝑡 ( ) M1A1
−2 0 1
2

[8 marks]
3b. [2 marks]
𝑥
Show that the matrix equation (𝑥 𝑦)𝐌 (𝑦) = (6) is equivalent to the Cartesian
5 5
equation 2 𝑥 2 + 𝑥𝑦 + 2 𝑦 2 = 6.

Markscheme
5 1
𝑥 5 1 1 5 𝑥
(𝑥 𝑦) (21 2
5) (𝑦) = (6) ⇒ (2 𝑥 + 2 𝑦 2
𝑥 + 2
𝑦) ( 𝑦) = (6) M1A1
2 2

5 1 1 5 5 5
⇒ (2 𝑥 2 + 2 𝑥𝑦 + 2 𝑥𝑦 + 2 𝑦 2 ) = (6) ⇒ 2 𝑥 2 + 𝑥𝑦 + 2 𝑦 2 = 6. AG

[2 marks]
3c. [2 marks]
1 1

Show that (√2

−1) and (√2
1) are unit eigenvectors and that they correspond to different
√2 √2
eigenvalues.

Markscheme
1 1
1 1 1 1
(√2
−1) = ( ) corresponding to 𝜆 = 2, (√2
1)= ( ) corresponding to 𝜆 = 3 R1R1
√2 −1 √2 1
√2 √2

[2 marks]
3d. [1 mark]
1 1 1 1
2 0
Hence, show that 𝑀 (√2
−1
√2
1) = (√2
−1
√2
1 ) (0 ).
3
√2 √2 √2 √2
Markscheme
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 0
𝑀 (√2
−1) = 2 (√2
−1) and 𝑀 (√2
1) = 3 (√2
1) ⇒ 𝑀 (√2
−1
√2
1) = (√2
−1
√2
1 ) (0 ) A1AG
3
√2 √2 √2 √2 √2 √2 √2 √2

[1 mark]
3e. [2 marks]
1 1

Let (√2
−1
√2
1) = 𝐑−1.
√2 √2

Find matrix R.

Markscheme
1 −1

Determinant is 1. 𝐑 = (√2
1
√2
1 ) M1A1
√2 √2

[2 marks]
3f. [1 mark]
2 0
Show that 𝐌 = 𝐑−1 ( ) 𝐑.
0 3

Markscheme
2 0 2 0
𝐌𝐑−1 = 𝐑−1 ( ) so post multiplying by 𝐑 gives 𝐌 = 𝐑−1 ( )𝐑 M1AG
0 3 0 3
[1 mark]
3g. [3 marks]
𝑥 𝑋
Let 𝐑 (𝑦) = ( ).
𝑌
Verify that (𝑋 𝑌) = (𝑥 𝑦)𝐑−1 .

Markscheme
1 −1 1 1
𝑥 𝑋 𝑥− 𝑦 𝑋 1 1 1 1
(√2
1
√2
1 ) ( 𝑦 ) = ( ) ⇒ (√2
1
√2
(
1 ) = (𝑌 ) ⇒ 𝑋 𝑌) = (√2 𝑥 − √2 𝑦 𝑥+ 𝑦)
𝑌 𝑥+ 𝑦 √2 √2
√2 √2 √2 √2
M1A1
 1 1
1 1 1 1
and (𝑥 𝑦) (√2
−1
√2
1) = (√2 𝑥 − √2 𝑦 𝑥+ 𝑦) completing the proof A1AG
√2 √2
√2 √2

[3 marks]
3h. [2 marks]
Hence, find the Cartesian equation satisfied by 𝑋 and 𝑌.

Markscheme
𝑥 𝑥
(𝑥 𝑦)𝐌 ( ) = (6) ⇒ (𝑥 𝑦)𝐑−1 (2 0) 𝐑 ( ) = (6) ⇒ (𝑋 𝑌) (
2 0 𝑋
) ( ) = (6)
𝑦 0 3 𝑦 0 3 𝑌
𝑋2 𝑌2
⇒ (2𝑋 2 + 3𝑌 2 ) = (6) ⇒ + =1 M1A1
3 2

[2 marks]
3i. [2 marks]
1
0 𝑋 𝑢
√3
Let ( ) ( ) = ( ).
0
1 𝑌 𝑣
√2

Find the Cartesian equation satisfied by 𝑢 and 𝑣 and state the geometric shape that this
curve represents.

Markscheme
𝑋 𝑌
= 𝑢, = 𝑣 ⇒ 𝑢2 + 𝑣 2 = 1, a circle (centre at the origin radius of 1) A1A1
√3 √2

[2 marks]
3j. [2 marks]
State geometrically what transformation the matrix 𝐑 represents.

Markscheme
A rotation about the origin through an angle of 45° anticlockwise. A1A1
[2 marks]
3k. [2 marks]
Hence state the geometrical shape represented by
the curve in 𝑋 and 𝑌 in part (e) (ii), giving a reason.
Markscheme
an ellipse, since the matrix represents a vertical and a horizontal stretch R1A1
[2 marks]
3l. [1 mark]
the curve in 𝑥 and 𝑦 in part (b).

Markscheme
an ellipse A1
[1 mark]
3m. [2 marks]
Write down the equations of two lines of symmetry for the curve in 𝑥 and 𝑦 in part (b).

Markscheme
𝑦 = 𝑥, 𝑦 = −𝑥 A1A1
[2 marks]
4a. [1 mark]
This question explores methods to analyse the scores in an exam.
A random sample of 149 scores for a university exam are given in the table.

Find unbiased estimates for the population mean.

Markscheme
52.8 A1
[1 mark]
4b. [2 marks]
Find unbiased estimates for the population Variance.

Markscheme
2
𝑠𝑛−1 = 23.72 = 562 M1A1
[2 marks]
4c. [3 marks]
The university wants to know if the scores follow a normal distribution, with the mean and
variance found in part (a).
Show that the expected frequency for 20 < 𝑥 ≤ 4 is 31.5 correct to 1 decimal place.

Markscheme
𝑃(20 < 𝑥 ≤ 40) = 0.211 M1A1
0.211 × 149 M1
= 31.5 AG
[3 marks]
4d. [8 marks]
The expected frequencies are given in the table.

Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to determine if the scores follow a
normal distribution, with the mean and variance found in part (a). You should clearly state
your hypotheses, the degrees of freedom, the p-value and your conclusion.

Markscheme
use of a 𝜒 2 goodness of fit test M1

𝐻0 : 𝑥 ∼ 𝑁(52.8, 562) and A1A1

𝜐 = 5−1−2=2 A1
p-value = 0.569 A2
Since 0.569 > 0.05 R1
Insufficient evidence to reject 𝐻0 . The scores follow a normal distribution. A1
[8 marks]
4e. [2 marks]
The university assigns a pass grade to students whose scores are in the top 80%.
Use the normal distribution model to find the score required to pass.
Markscheme
𝛷−1 (0.2) = 32.8 M1A1
[2 marks]
4f. [6 marks]
The university also wants to know if the exam is gender neutral. They obtain random
samples of scores for male and female students. The mean, sample variance and sample
size are shown in the table.

Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to determine if there is a difference

between the mean scores of males and females. You should clearly state your hypotheses,
the p-value and your conclusion.

Markscheme
use of a t-test M1
𝐻0 : 𝜇𝑚 = 𝜇𝑓 and 𝐻1 : 𝜇𝑚 ≠ 𝜇𝑓 A1

p-value = 0.180 A2
Since 0.180 > 0.05 R1
Insufficient evidence to reject 𝐻0 . There is no difference between males and females. A1
[6 marks]
4g. [6 marks]
The university awards a distinction to students who achieve high scores in the exam.
Typically, 15% of students achieve a distinction. A new exam is trialed with a random
selection of students on the course. 5 out of 20 students achieve a distinction.
Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to determine if it is easier to achieve a
distinction on the new exam. You should clearly state your hypotheses, the critical region
and your conclusion.

Markscheme
use of test for proportion using Binomial distribution M1
𝐻0 : 𝑝 = 0.15 and 𝐻1 : 𝑝 > 0.15 A1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 6) = 0.0673 and 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 7) = 0.0219 M1
So the critical region is 𝑋 ≥ 7 A1
Since 5 < 7 R1
Insufficient evidence to reject 𝐻0 . It is not easier to achieve a distinction on the new exam.
A1
[6 marks]
4h. [3 marks]
A different exam is trialed with 16 students. Let 𝑝 be the percentage of students achieving a
distinction. It is desired to test the hypotheses
𝐻0 : 𝑝 = 0.15 against 𝐻1 : 𝑝 > 0.15
It is decided to reject the null hypothesis if the number of students achieving a distinction is
greater than 3.
Find the probability of making a Type I error.

Markscheme
using 𝐻0 , 𝑋 ∼ 𝐵(16, 0.15) M1
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 0.210 M1A1
[3 marks]
4i. [3 marks]
Given that 𝑝 = 0.2 find the probability of making a Type II error.

Markscheme
using 𝐻1 , 𝑋 ∼ 𝐵(16, 0.2) M1
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 0.598 M1A1
[3 marks]
5a. [3 marks]
In this question you will explore possible models for the spread of an infectious disease
An infectious disease has begun spreading in a country. The National Disease Control
Centre (NDCC) has compiled the following data after receiving alerts from hospitals.
A graph of 𝑛 against 𝑑 is shown below.

The NDCC want to find a model to predict the total number of people infected, so they can
plan for medicine and hospital facilities. After looking at the data, they think an exponential
function in the form 𝑛 = 𝑎𝑏 𝑑 could be used as a model.
Use an exponential regression to find the value of 𝑎 and of 𝑏, correct to 4 decimal places.

Markscheme
𝑎 = 9.7782, 𝑏 = 1.7125 M1A1A1
[3 marks]
5b. [3 marks]
Use your answer to part (a) to predict
the number of new people infected on day 6.

Markscheme
𝑛(6) = 247 A1
number of new people infected = 247 – 140 = 107 M1A1
[3 marks]
5c. [2 marks]
the day when the total number of people infected will be greater than 1000.

Markscheme
use of graph or table M1
day 9 A1
[2 marks]
5d. [1 mark]
The NDCC want to verify the accuracy of these predictions. They decide to perform a 𝜒 2
goodness of fit test.
Use your answer to part (a) to show that the model predicts 16.7 people will be infected on
the first day.

Markscheme
9.7782(1.7125)1 M1
= 16.7 people AG
[1 mark]
5e. [2 marks]
The predictions given by the model for the first five days are shown in the table.

Explain why the number of degrees of freedom is 2.

Markscheme
2 parameters (𝑎 and 𝑏) were estimated from the data. R1
𝜐 = 5−1−2 M1
= 2 AG
[2 marks]
5f. [5 marks]
Perform a 𝜒 2 goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level. You should clearly state your
hypotheses, the p-value, and your conclusion.
Markscheme
𝐻0 : data is modeled by 𝑛(𝑑) = 9.7782(1.7125)𝑑 and 𝐻1 : data is not modeled by 𝑛(𝑑) =
9.7782(1.7125)𝑑 A1
p-value = 0.893 A2
Since 0.893 > 0.05 R1
Insufficient evidence to reject 𝐻0 . So data is modeled by 𝑛(𝑑) = 9.7782(1.7125)𝑑 A1
[5 marks]
5g. [2 marks]
In fact, the first day when the total number of people infected is greater than 1000 is day
14, when a total of 1015 people are infected.
Give two reasons why the prediction in part (b)(ii) might be lower than 14.

Markscheme
vaccine or medicine might slow down rate of infection R1
People become more aware of disease and take precautions to avoid infection R1
Accept other valid reasons
[2 marks]
5h. [2 marks]
𝐿
Based on this new data, the NDCC decide to try a logistic model in the form 𝑛 = 1+𝑐𝑒 −𝑘𝑑 .

Use the data from days 1–5, together with day 14, to find the value of
𝐿.

Markscheme
1060 M1A1
[2 marks]
5i. [1 mark]
𝑐.

Markscheme
108 A1
[1 mark]
5j. [1 mark]
𝑘.

Markscheme
0.560 A1
[1 mark]
5k. [2 marks]
Hence predict the total number of people infected by this disease after several months.

Markscheme
As 𝑑 → ∞ M1
𝑛 → 1060 A1
[2 marks]
5l. [3 marks]
Use the logistic model to find the day when the rate of increase of people infected is
greatest.

Markscheme
d𝑛 d2 𝑛
sketch of d𝑑 or solve d𝑑2 = 0 M1

𝑑 = 8.36 A1
Day 8 A1
[3 marks]
6a. [2 marks]
In this question, you will explore possible approaches to using historical sports
results for making predictions about future sports matches.
Two friends, Peter and Helen, are discussing ways of predicting the outcomes of
international football matches involving Argentina.
Peter suggests analysing historical data to help make predictions. He lists the results of
the most recent 240 matches in which Argentina played, in chronological order, then
considers blocks of four matches at a time. He counts how many times Argentina has won
in each block. The following table shows his results for the 60 blocks of four matches.
Determine the mean number of wins per block of four matches for Argentina.

Markscheme
12 144
( 60 , 2.4) (M1)A1
5

[2 marks]
6b. [1 mark]
Peter thinks that this data can be modelled by a binomial distribution with 𝑛 = 4 and
decides to carry out a 𝜒 2 goodness of fit test.
Use Peter’s data to write down an estimate for the probability 𝑝 for this binomial model.

Markscheme
3 144
(240 , 0.6) A1
5

[1 mark]
6c. [1 mark]
Use the binomial model to find the probability that Argentina win zero matches in a block
of four matches.

Markscheme
3
wins ∼ B (4, 5)

P(wins = 0) = 0.0256 A1
Note: Allow FT from use of their probability in part (b) but only when used with 𝑛 = 4.

[1 mark]
6d. [2 marks]
Find the expected frequency for zero wins.

Markscheme
expected frequency = 60 × 0.0256 (M1)
= 1.536 A1

[2 marks]
6e. [1 mark]
As some expected frequencies are less than 5, Peter combines rows in his table to
produce the following observed frequencies. He then uses his binomial model to find
appropriate expected frequencies, correct to one decimal place.

Peter uses this table to carry out a 𝜒 2 goodness of fit test, to test the hypothesis that the
data follows a binomial distribution with 𝑛 = 4, at the 5% significance level.
For this test, state
the null hypothesis;

Markscheme
H0 : data follows a Binomial distribution with 𝑛 = 4 A1

[1 mark]
6f. [1 mark]
the number of degrees of freedom;

Markscheme
(df = 4 − 1 − 1 =) 2 A1

[1 mark]
6g. [2 marks]
the 𝑝-value;

Markscheme
𝑝-value = 0.954 (0.953872 … ) (M1)A1

[2 marks]
6h. [2 marks]
the conclusion, justifying your answer.

Markscheme
0.954 > 0.05 R1
insufficient evidence to reject H0 A1

Note: Condone “accept H0 ”. Follow through from their 𝑝-value in part (d)(iii) if the
reasoning is correct and correct conclusions are made. Do NOT award R0A1.

[2 marks]
6i. [2 marks]
Using Peter’s binomial model, find the probability that Argentina will win at least one
of their next four international football matches.

Markscheme
3
wins ∼ B (4, 5) OR 1 − 0.0256 (M1)

P(wins ≥ 1) = 0.974 (0.9744) A1

[2 marks]
6j. [2 marks]
Helen thinks that a better prediction might be made by considering the transition
between matches. To keep the model simple, she decides to use only two states: Argentina
won (A) or Argentina did not win (B). Helen looks at Peter’s list of results and counts the
number of times that:
• Argentina won, twice in succession (AA),
• Argentina won, then did not win (AB),
• Argentina did not win, then won (BA),
• Argentina did not win, twice in succession (BB).
She recorded the following results.

Helen uses the relative frequencies to estimate the probabilities in a transition matrix.
Given that Argentina won the previous match, show that Helen’s estimate for
17
the probability of Argentina winning the next match is 29.

Markscheme
there are 145 transitions that start with Argentina, (M1)
85
(of which 85 lead to Argentina winning,) so the probability is A1
145
17
= 29 AG

[2 marks]
6k. [2 marks]
Write down the transition matrix, 𝐓, for Helen’s model.
Markscheme
17 31
29 47 0.586 0.660
(12 16) (= ( )) A1A1
0.414 0.340
29 47

Note: Accept the transposed matrix as correct.

17
Award A1 for 29 placed in a leading diagonal.
Award A1 for all other values correct and in correct position in the matrix.

[2 marks]
6l. [3 marks]
Show that the characteristic polynomial of 𝐓 is 1363𝜆2 − 1263𝜆 − 100 = 0.

Markscheme
write their matrix with 𝜆 subtracted from the leading diagonal (M1)
equate determinant to zero (M1)
17 31
−𝜆
det (29 47 )=0
12 16
−𝜆
29 47
17 16 12 31
(29 − 𝜆) (47 − 𝜆) − 29 × 47 = 0 A1

correct intermediate step

1363𝜆2 − 1263𝜆 − 100 = 0 AG

Note: Do not award A1 if there is no intermediate step leading from determinant to given
answer.
𝑥 𝑥
Solving 𝐓 (𝑦) = 𝜆 (𝑦) for 𝑥 and 𝑦 may be seen and is a valid alternative method.
Accept working in the form det(𝜆𝐼 − 𝑇) = 0.

[3 marks]
6m. [1 mark]
Hence or otherwise, find the eigenvalues of 𝐓.
Markscheme
100
𝜆 = 1, − 1363 (−0.0733675 … ) A1

[1 mark]
6n. [3 marks]
Find the corresponding eigenvectors.

Markscheme
𝑥 𝑥
attempt to solve 𝐓 (𝑦) = 𝜆 (𝑦) (M1)

564
𝑦= 𝑥
899
1 1
eigenvector for 𝜆 = 1 is (564) (= ( )) A1
899 0.627
100 1
eigenvector for 𝜆 = − 1363 is ( ) A1
−1

Note: Allow correct multiples of the eigenvectors.

1
If eigenvector ( ) is stated without the second eigenvector, or any other working, then
−1
award M0A0A1.

[3 marks]
6o. [4 marks]
In her retirement, many years from now, Helen is planning to travel to three
consecutive international football matches involving Argentina. Use Helen’s model to find
the probability that Argentina will win all three matches.

Markscheme
EITHER
1 1
solution found using (564) (= ( ))
899 0.627
564
𝑥 + 899 𝑥 = 1 (M1)
 899
𝑥 = 0.614 (0.614490 … , ) (A1)
1463

OR
solution can be found from high power of transition matrix
50
17 31
29 47 0.614 0.614
(12 16) =( ) (M1)
0.386 0.386
29 47

Note: Accept the transposed matrix if consistent with their answer to part (f)(ii).

899
probability = 0.614 (0.614490 … , ) (A1)
1463

THEN
899 17 2
P(3 wins) = 0.614 × 0.5862 (= 1463 × (29) ) (M1)

8959
= 0.211 (0.211162 … , ) A1
42427

[4 marks]
7a. [1 mark]
This question is about a metropolitan area council planning a new town and the
location of a new toxic waste dump.

A metropolitan area in a country is modelled as a square. The area has four towns, located
at the corners of the square. All units are in kilometres with the 𝑥-coordinate representing
the distance east and the 𝑦-coordinate representing the distance north from the origin at
(0, 0).
• Edison is modelled as being positioned at E(0, 40).
• Fermitown is modelled as being positioned at F(40, 40).
• Gaussville is modelled as being positioned at G(40, 0).
• Hamilton is modelled as being positioned at H(0, 0).
The model assumes that each town is positioned at a single point. Describe possible
circumstances in which this modelling assumption is reasonable.
Markscheme
the size of each town is small (in comparison with the distance between the towns)
OR
if towns have an identifiable centre
OR
the centre of the town is at that point R1

Note: Accept a geographical landmark in place of “centre”, e.g. “town hall” or “capitol”.

[1 mark]
7b. [1 mark]
Sketch a Voronoi diagram showing the regions within the metropolitan area that are
closest to each town.

Markscheme

A1

Note: There is no need for a scale / coordinates here. Condone boundaries extending
beyond the metropolitan area.

[1 mark]
7c. [4 marks]
The metropolitan area council decides to build a new town called Isaacopolis located at
I(30, 20).
A new Voronoi diagram is to be created to include Isaacopolis. The equation of the
3 15
perpendicular bisector of [IE] is 𝑦 = 2 𝑥 + 2 .

Find the equation of the perpendicular bisector of [IF].

Markscheme
40−20
the gradient of IF is 40−30 = 2 (A1)

negative reciprocal of any gradient (M1)

1
gradient of perpendicular bisector = 2

2
Note: Seeing − 3 (for example) used clearly as a gradient anywhere is evidence of the
“negative reciprocal” method despite being applied to an inappropriate gradient.

40+30 40+20
midpoint is ( , ) = (35, 30) (A1)
2 2
1
equation of perpendicular bisector is 𝑦 − 30 = − 2 (𝑥 − 35) A1

1 95
Note: Accept equivalent forms e.g. 𝑦 = − 2 𝑥 + 2 or 2𝑦 + 𝑥 − 95 = 0.
Allow FT for the final A1 from their midpoint and gradient of perpendicular bisector, as
long as the M1 has been awarded

[4 marks]
7d. [4 marks]
Given that the coordinates of one vertex of the new Voronoi diagram are (20, 37.5), find
the coordinates of the other two vertices within the metropolitan area.

Markscheme
the perpendicular bisector of EH is 𝑦 = 20 (A1)

Note: Award this A1 if seen in the 𝑦-coordinate of any final answer or if 20 is used as the 𝑦-
value in the equation of any other perpendicular bisector.

attempt to use symmetry OR intersecting two perpendicular bisectors (M1)

 25
( 3 , 20) A1

(20, 2.5) A1

[4 marks]
7e. [2 marks]
Sketch this new Voronoi diagram showing the regions within the metropolitan area which
are closest to each town.

Markscheme

M1A1

Note: Award M1 for exactly four perpendicular bisectors around I (IE, IF, IG and IH) seen,
even if not in exactly the right place.
Award A1 for a completely correct diagram. Scale / coordinates are NOT necessary.
Vertices should be in approximately the correct positions but only penalized if clearly
wrong (condone northern and southern vertices appearing to be very close to the
boundary).
Condone the Voronoi diagram extending outside of the square.
Do not award follow-though marks in this part.

[2 marks]
7f. [4 marks]
The metropolitan area is divided into districts based on the Voronoi regions found in part
(c).
A car departs from a point due north of Hamilton. It travels due east at constant speed to a
destination point due North of Gaussville. It passes through the Edison, Isaacopolis and
Fermitown districts. The car spends 30% of the travel time in the Isaacopolis district.
Find the distance between Gaussville and the car’s destination point.

Markscheme
30% of 40 is 12 (A1)
recognizing line intersects bisectors at 𝑦 = 𝑐 (or equivalent) but different 𝑥-values
(M1)
3 15 1 95
𝑐 = 2 𝑥1 + and 𝑐 = − 2 𝑥2 +
2 2

finding an expression for the distance in Isaacopolis in terms of one variable (M1)
2𝑐 − 15 8𝑐
𝑥2 − 𝑥1 = (95 − 2𝑐) − = 100 −
3 3
equating their expression to 12
8𝑐
100 − = 0.3 × 40 = 12
3
𝑐 = 33
distance = 33 (km) A1

[4 marks]
7g. [4 marks]
A toxic waste dump needs to be located within the metropolitan area. The council wants to
locate it as far as possible from the nearest town.
Find the location of the toxic waste dump, given that this location is not on the edge of the
metropolitan area.
Markscheme
must be a vertex (award if vertex given as a final answer) (R1)
attempt to calculate the distance of at least one town from a vertex (M1)

Note: This must be seen as a calculation or a value.

correct calculation of distances A1

65
OR 21.7 AND √406.25 OR 20.2
3

25
( 3 , 20) A1

Note: Award R1M0A0A0 for a vertex written with no other supporting calculations.
Award R1M0A0A1 for correct vertex with no other supporting calculations.
The final A1 is not dependent on the previous A1. There is no follow-through for the final
A1.
Do not accept an answer based on “uniqueness” in the question.

[4 marks]
7h. [1 mark]
Make one possible criticism of the council’s choice of location.

Markscheme
For example, any one of the following:
decision does not take into account the different population densities
closer to a city will reduce travel time/help employees
it is closer to some cites than others R1

Note: Accept any correct reason that engages with the scenario.
Do not accept any answer to do with ethical issues about whether toxic waste should ever
be dumped, or dumped in a metropolitan area.

[1 mark]
7i. [3 marks]
The toxic waste dump, T, is connected to the towns via a system of sewers.
The connections are represented in the following matrix, 𝐌, where the order of rows and
columns is (E, F, G, H, I, T).
1 0 1 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0
𝐌=
1 0 0 1 0 1
0 0 1 0 1 0
(0 1 0 1 0 1)
A leak occurs from the toxic waste dump and travels through the sewers. The pollution
takes one day to travel between locations that are directly connected.
The digit 1 in 𝐌 represents a direct connection. The values of 1 in the leading diagonal of 𝐌
mean that once a location is polluted it will stay polluted.
Find which town is last to be polluted. Justify your answer.

Markscheme
METHOD 1
attempting 𝐌3 M1
attempting 𝐌4 M1
e.g.
last row/column of 𝐌 3 = (3 5 1 6 0 7)
last row/column of 𝐌 4 = (10 12 4 16 1 18)
hence Isaacopolis is the last city to be polluted A1

Note: Do not award the A1 unless both 𝐌3 and 𝐌4 are considered.

Award M1M0A0 for a claim that the shortest distance is from 𝑇 to 𝐼 and that it is 4, without
any support.

METHOD 2
attempting to translate 𝐌 to a graph or a list of cities polluted on each day (M1)
correct graph or list A1
hence Isaacopolis is the last city to be polluted A1

Note: Award M1A1A1 for a clear description of the graph in words leading to the correct
answer.

[3 marks]
7j. [1 mark]
Write down the number of days it takes for the pollution to reach the last town.

Markscheme
it takes 4 days A1

[1 mark]
7k. [2 marks]
A sewer inspector needs to plan the shortest possible route through each of the
connections between different locations. Determine an appropriate start point and an
appropriate end point of the inspection route.
Note that the fact that each location is connected to itself does not correspond to a sewer
that needs to be inspected.

Markscheme
EITHER
the orders of the different vertices are:
E 2
F 1
G 2
H 2
I 1
T 2 (A1)

Note: Accept a list where each order is 2 greater than listed above.

OR
a correct diagram/graph showing the connections between the locations (A1)

Note: Accept a diagram with loops at each vertex.

This mark should be awarded if candidate is clearly using their correct diagram from the
previous part.

THEN
“Start at F and end at I” OR “Start at I and end at F” A1

Note: Award A1A0 for “it could start at either F or I”.

Award A1A1 for “IGEHTF” OR “FTHEGI”.
Award A1A1 for “F and I” OR “I and F”.

[2 marks]
8a. [2 marks]
This question uses statistical tests to investigate whether advertising leads to
increased profits for a grocery store.

Aimmika is the manager of a grocery store in Nong Khai. She is carrying out a statistical
analysis on the number of bags of rice that are sold in the store each day. She collects the
following sample data by recording how many bags of rice the store sells each day over a
period of 90 days.

She believes that her data follows a Poisson distribution.

Find the mean and variance for the sample data given in the table.
Markscheme
mean = 4.23 (4.23333 … ) A1
variance = 4.27 (4.26777 … ) A1

[2 marks]
8b. [1 mark]
Hence state why Aimmika believes her data follows a Poisson distribution.

Markscheme
mean is close to the variance A1

[1 mark]
8c. [1 mark]
State one assumption that Aimmika needs to make about the sales of bags of rice to support
her belief that it follows a Poisson distribution.

Markscheme
One of the following:
the number of bags sold each day is independent of any other day
the sale of one bag is independent of any other bag sold
the sales of bags of rice (each day) occur at a constant mean rate A1

Note: Award A1 for a correct answer in context. Any statement referring to independence
must refer to either the independence of each bag sold or the independence of the number
of bags sold each day. If the third option is seen, the statement must refer to a “constant
mean” or “constant average”. Do not accept “the number of bags sold each day is constant”.

[1 mark]
8d. [5 marks]
Aimmika knows from her historic sales records that the store sells an average of 4.2 bags of
rice each day. The following table shows the expected frequency of bags of rice sold each
day during the 90 day period, assuming a Poisson distribution with mean 4.2.
Find the value of 𝑎, of 𝑏, and of 𝑐. Give your answers to 3 decimal places.

Markscheme
attempt to find Poisson probabilities and multiply by 90 (M1)
𝑎 = 7.018 A1
𝑏 = 17.498 A1

EITHER

90 × P(𝑋 ≥ 8) = 90 × (1 − P(𝑋 ≤ 7)) (M1)

𝑐 = 5.755 A1

OR
90 − 7.018 − 11.903 − 16.665 − 17.498 − 14.698 − 10.289 − 6.173 (M1)
𝑐 = 5.756 A1

Note: Do not penalize the omission of clear 𝑎, 𝑏 and 𝑐 labelling as this will be penalized
later if correct values are interchanged.

[5 marks]
8e. [1 mark]
Aimmika decides to carry out a 𝜒 2 goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level to
see whether the data follows a Poisson distribution with mean 4.2.
Write down the number of degrees of freedom for her test.

Markscheme
7 A1
[1 mark]
8f. [7 marks]
Perform the 𝜒 2 goodness of fit test and state, with reason, a conclusion.

Markscheme
H0 : The number of bags of rice sold each day follows a Poisson distribution with mean 4.2.
A1
H1 : The number of bags of rice sold each day does not follow a Poisson distribution with
mean 4.2. A1

Note: Award A1A1 for both hypotheses correctly stated and in correct order. Award A1A0
if reference to the data and/or “mean 4.2” is not included in the hypotheses, but otherwise
correct.

evidence of attempting to group data to obtain the observed frequencies for ≤ 1 and ≥ 8
(M1)
𝑝-value = 0.728 (0.728100 … ) A2
0.728 (0.728100 … ) > 0.05 R1
the result is not significant so there is no reason to reject H0 (the number of bags sold each
day follows a Poisson distribution) A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. The conclusion MUST follow through from their hypotheses. If
no hypotheses are stated, the final A1 can still be awarded for a correct conclusion as long
as it is in context (e.g. therefore the data follows a Poisson distribution).

[7 marks]
8g. [6 marks]
Aimmika claims that advertising in a local newspaper for 300 Thai Baht (THB) per day will
increase the number of bags of rice sold. However, Nichakarn, the owner of the
store, claims that the advertising will not increase the store’s overall profit.
Nichakarn agrees to advertise in the newspaper for the next 60 days. During that
time, Aimmika records that the store sells 282 bags of rice with a profit of 495 THB on each
bag sold.
Aimmika wants to carry out an appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether
the number of bags of rice sold during the 60 days increased when compared with
the historic sales records.
By finding a critical value, perform this test at a 5 % significance level.

Markscheme
METHOD 1
evidence of multiplying 4.2 × 60 (seen anywhere) M1
H0 : 𝜇 = 252
H1 : 𝜇 > 252 A1

Note: Accept H0 : 𝜇 = 4.2 and H1 : 𝜇 > 4.2 for the A1.

evidence of finding probabilities around critical region (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for any of these values seen:

P(𝑋 ≥ 277) = 0.0630518 … OR P(𝑋 ≤ 276) = 0.936948 …
P(𝑋 ≥ 278) = 0.0558415 … OR P(𝑋 ≤ 277) = 0.944158 …
P(𝑋 ≥ 279) = 0.0493055 … OR P(𝑋 ≤ 278) = 0.950694 …

critical value = 279 A1

282 ≥ 279 , R1
the null hypothesis is rejected A1
(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being effective
for A1 as long as the R mark is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within the part from
their critical value.

METHOD 2
evidence of dividing 282 by 60 (or 4.7 seen anywhere) M1
H0 : 𝜇 = 4.2
H1 : 𝜇 > 4.2 A1
attempt to find critical value using central limit theorem (M1)

4.2 4.2
(e.g. sample standard deviation = √ 60 , 𝑋 ∼ 𝑁 (4.2, √ 60 ), etc.)

Note: Award (M1) for a 𝑝-value of 0.0293907 … seen.

critical value = 4.63518 … A1

4.7 > 4.63518 … R1
the null hypothesis is rejected A1
(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being effective
for A1 as long as the R mark is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within the part from
their critical value.

[6 marks]
8h. [1 mark]
Hence state the probability of a Type I error for this test.

Markscheme
(P(𝑋 ≥ 279 𝜇 = 252) =) 0.0493 (0.0493055 … ) A1

Note: If a candidate uses METHOD 2 in part (e)(i), allow an FT answer of 0.05 for this part
but only if the candidate has attempted to find a 𝑝-value.

[1 mark]
8i. [3 marks]
By considering the claims of both Aimmika and Nichakarn, explain whether the advertising
was beneficial to the store.

Markscheme
attempt to compare profit difference with cost of advertising (M1)
Note: Award (M1) for evidence of candidate mathematically comparing a profit difference
with the cost of the advertising.

EITHER
(comparing profit from 30 extra bags of rice with cost of advertising)
14850 < 18000 A1

OR
(comparing total profit with and without advertising)
121590 < 124740 A1

OR
(comparing increase of average daily profit with daily advertising cost)
247.50 < 300 A1

THEN
EITHER
Even though the number of bags of rice increased, the advertising is not worth it as the
overall profit did not increase. R1

OR
The advertising is worth it even though the cost is less than the increased profit, since the
number of customers increased (possibly buying other products and/or returning in the
future after advertising stops) R1

Note: Follow through within the part for correct reasoning consistent with their
comparison.

[3 marks]

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