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Demand Forecasting Cengage2

The document provides examples and definitions related to inventory management, production planning, forecasting techniques, and supply chain concepts. Multiple choice questions are asked about inventory levels, order quantities, production schedules, capacity planning, and forecasting methods.

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ray.lazare28
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
52 views28 pages

Demand Forecasting Cengage2

The document provides examples and definitions related to inventory management, production planning, forecasting techniques, and supply chain concepts. Multiple choice questions are asked about inventory levels, order quantities, production schedules, capacity planning, and forecasting methods.

Uploaded by

ray.lazare28
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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In the context of data patterns in a time series, a(n) _________ variation is a one-time variation that is

explainable.
seasonal
random
cyclical
irregular
irregular

________ inventory consists of partially completed products in various stages of completion that are
awaiting further processing.
Safety stock
Work-in-process
Raw materials
Finished-goods
Work-in-process

Using the data regarding the inventory management of a stock-keeping unit shown in the following
table, it can be concluded that the optimal replenishment level without any safety stock for a fixed-
period system (FPS) under the model assumptions is more than _______ but less than or equal to
_______ units.
Demand: 100 units per weel
Order Cost: $30 per order
Inventory-Holding Cost: $.6 per unit per year
Lead Time: 2 weeks
Economic Time Interval: 5 weeks
100; 200
200; 400
400; 600
600; 800
600; 800
m=100*(5+2)=700

Harlose Suits owns more equipment than required for manufacturing goods during periods of regular
demand in order to tackle sudden demand surges. It also has a certain reserve of produced goods to
tackle material shortages. In this case, the reserve of equipment and produced goods are examples of:
capacity straddle.
the capacity cushion.
a physical constraint.
overbooking.
the capacity cushion.

Which statement is true of purchasing?


The principal goal of purchasing is to source products from a single supplier to avoid capacity risks.
Purchasing is critical to satisfy employees' needs and expectations.
Purchasing can have a significant impact on total supply chain costs.
The delivery of goods and services is the responsibility of the purchasing function of a supply chain.
Purchasing can have a significant impact on total supply chain costs.

In the context of ABC inventory analysis, which statement is true of class A items?
Class A items account for more than 50 percent of inventory items.
Class A items comprise less than 30 percent of the total dollar usage.
Class A items require close control by operations managers.
Class A items can be managed using automated computer systems.
Class A items require close control by operations managers.

Each bank teller workstation is forecasted to process 220 transactions (the end item) on Friday. The bank
is open from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Friday, with 90 minutes for lunch and breaks. Three teller
windows are open on Friday. A work-study analysis reveals that the breakdown of the transaction mix is
30 percent deposits, 45 percent withdrawals, and 25 percent transfers between accounts. A different
form is used for each type of transaction, so there is one deposit slip per deposit, one withdrawal slip per
withdrawal, and two transfer slips per transfer. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.
Deposit slips are delivered every second day. If the on-hand balance of deposit slips is 30 at this bank,
how many deposit slips should be ordered?
183
396
366
244
366
=(220 transaction/workstation)(3 workstations)(.3)*(1 slip/transaction) =198 deposit slips required on
friday
Order Quantity = (2 days/order cycle)*(198 deposit slips/day) - 30 =366

A company currently has no items in inventory. The demand for the next four months is 200, 400, 250,
and 350 units. Assuming a level production rate of 350 units per month, determine the ending inventory
at the end of the fourth month.
100
150
200
250
200
Ending inventory = 0 + (350 × 4) - (200 + 400 + 250 + 350) = 200 units

Supply chain management is the management of:


all activities that facilitate the fulfillment of a customer order for a manufactured good to achieve
customer satisfaction at reasonable cost.
some activities that facilitate the fulfillment of a customer order for a manufactured good to achieve
customer satisfaction at reasonable cost.
all procurement activities that facilitate the fulfillment of a customer order for a manufactured good to
achieve customer satisfaction at reasonable cost.
all financial activities that facilitate the fulfillment of a customer order for a manufactured good to
achieve customer satisfaction at reasonable cost.
all activities that facilitate the fulfillment of a customer order for a manufactured good to achieve
customer satisfaction at reasonable cost.

In the context of a fairly stable time series with relatively little random variability, which of the following
statements is true of single exponential smoothing (SES)?
Values of the smoothing constant smaller than 0.1 allow a forecast to react faster to changing conditions.
Exponential smoothing models completely forget past data if the smoothing constant is strictly between
0 and 1.
Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data.
Typical values for the smoothing constant are in the range of 1 to 1.5.
Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data.

_________ are incurred as a result of the work involved in placing orders with suppliers or configuring
tools, equipment, and machines within a factory to produce an item.
Unit costs
Shortage costs
Inventory holding
Order costs
Order costs

Each bank teller workstation is forecasted to process 140 transactions (the end item) on Friday. The bank
is open from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Friday, with 90 minutes for lunch and breaks. Three teller
windows are open on Friday. A work-study analysis reveals that the breakdown of the transaction mix is
30 percent deposits, 55 percent withdrawals, and 15 percent transfers between accounts. A different
form is used for each type of transaction, so there is one deposit slip per deposit, one withdrawal slip per
withdrawal, and two transfer slips per transfer. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.
How many transfer slips are needed on Friday?
132
114
126
140
126
(140 transactions/workstation)(3 workstations)(0.15)(2 slips/transaction) = 126

What amount of inventory is on hand the company has an inventory position of 80 units and there are
scheduled receipts of 20 units and a backorder of 10 units?
45
75
70
80
70
80 - 20 + 10 = 70

The demand for trains between Marshdell and Deepbarrow varies throughout the year. The demand
reaches its peak in summer and drops during winter. This demand for trains can be categorized as
________ demand.
dynamic
overfull
static
unwholesome
dynamic

In the context of aggregate planning options, which costs are an implication of allowing stock outs?
Separation costs
Lost sales and customer loyalty costs
Inventory-carrying costs
High labor costs and premiums
Lost sales and customer loyalty costs

__________ is the process of using the logic of dependent demand to calculate the quantity and timing
of orders for all subassemblies and components that go into and support the production of the end
item(s).
Capacity requirements planning
Materials requirements planning explosion
Final assembly schedule
Disaggregation
Materials requirements planning explosion
A nonbottleneck work activity is one where:
input exceed output.
input and output are exactly equal.
either input exceeds or is below output.
input is below output.
input is below output.

The roller coaster at Treasure Island Amusement Park consists of 17 cars, each of which can carry up to
three passengers. According to a time study, each run takes 5.0 minutes, and the time to unload and
load riders is 7.0 minutes. What is the maximum effective capacity of the system in number of
passengers per hour? Round your answer down to the nearest whole number.
255
211
289
228
255
The coaster completes a trip every 12 minutes including loading and unloading time or completing 5
trips per hour. With 3 passengers per car or 51 riders per trip, 255 passengers per hour is the maximum
effective (actual) capacity.

________ is a method for building a statistical model that defines a relationship between a single
dependent variable and one or more independent variables, all of which are numerical.
The Cooke method
Regression analysis
The Delphi method
Judgmental forecasting
Regression analysis

________ is based on the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.
The Cooke method
Statistical forecasting
Judgmental forecasting
The Delphi method
Statistical forecasting

A(n) __________ is a statement of how many finished items are to be produced and when they are to be
produced.
capacity requirements plan
gross requirements schedule
master production schedule
aggregate plan
master production schedule

Unlike a focused factory, an unfocused factory is characterized by:


dissimilar product lines.
particular market segments.
a few key products.
identical people skills.
dissimilar product lines.

What is a disadvantage of vendor-managed inventory (VMI)?


VMI prevents vendors from making production decisions using downstream customer demand data.
VMI does not allow vendors to view inventory needs from the customer's perspective.
VMI often results in higher customer inventories than necessary.
VMI prohibits the use of customer information, which leads to poor control of inventory and capacity.
VMI often results in higher customer inventories than necessary.

__________ is the development of a long-term output and resource plan in aggregate units of measure.
Capacity requirements planning
Master planning
Aggregate planning
Disaggregation
Aggregate planning

Hickory Manufacturing Company


Currently the manufacturer has nine machines that operate on a two-shift (eight hours each) basis.
Thirty days per year are available for scheduled maintenance of equipment with no process output.
Assume there are 250 workdays in a year. Each manufactured good takes 30 minutes to produce.
What is the capacity of the factory per year? Round your answer down to the nearest whole number.
63,360
63,660
66,360
63,330
63,360
Normal capacity=(250 - 30 days)(2 shifts/day)(8 hrs/day)(9 machines)=31,680 machine hours or
31,680(60)/30 = 63,360 units.
A _________ factory is a way to achieve economies of scale, without extensive investments in facilities
and capacity, by focusing on a narrow range of goods or services, target market segments, and/or
dedicated processes to maximize efficiency and effectiveness.
focused
virtual
physical
large
focused

In a revenue management system, forecasting, allocation, overbooking, and pricing must work in unison
if the objective is to:
maximize the revenue generated by a perishable asset.
meet the future demand of goods and services.
manage a nonperishable asset.
determine the single price that needs to be charged to all customers.
maximize the revenue generated by a perishable asset.

What action manages capacity by shifting and stimulating demand?


Changing labor skill mix
Adding or sharing equipment
Adding peripheral goods and/or services
Changing labor schedules
Adding peripheral goods and/or services

_________ is the difference between the observed value of the time series and the forecast.
Forecast density
Forecast consumption
Forecast error
Forecast precision
Forecast error

TekSupply, Inc., an automobile parts supplier, held an average automobile parts inventory of $4 million
last year. Its cost of goods sold was $25 million. Therefore, the automobile parts experienced an
inventory turnover of ________ turns last year.
2.5
4.25
6.25
9.5
6.25
IT = 25,000,000/4,000,000 = 6.25. Therefore, the automobile parts experienced 6.25 turns last year
_________ are needed to plan workforce levels, allocate budgets among divisions, and schedule jobs
and resources.
Make-to-stock operations
Intermediate-range forecasts
Make-to-order operations
Short-range forecasts
Intermediate-range forecasts

Blyrie Inc., a sports goods manufacturing company, follows a policy that involves manufacturing only
when the demand exceeds the amount of goods already manufactured. Given this information, Blyrie
Inc. most likely uses a ________ to expand its capacity.
capacity lag strategy
capacity reduction strategy
capacity lead strategy
capacity straddle strategy
capacity lag strategy

Bragg Johnson, materials manager at Johnson & Sons, has determined that a certain product
experienced 3.9 turns last year, with an annual sales volume (at cost) of $987,000. What was the average
inventory value for this product last year? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.
255077
257077
253077
250077
253077
Inventory turnover (IT) = Cost of goods sold / Average inventory value 3.9 = $987,000/X or X = $253,077
average inventory level last year.

_________ refers to moving work from one workstation to another, assigning people to tasks, setting
priorities for jobs, scheduling equipment, and controlling processes.
Execution
Disaggregation
Aggregate planning
Capacity planning
Execution

________ are regular patterns in a data series that take place over long periods of time.
Trends
Seasonal patterns
Forecasts
Cycles
Cycles

Josh Smith, the materials manager at a retail store, has determined that a particular product
experienced 5 turns last year, with an annual sales volume of $15 million. What was the average
inventory value for this product last year?
$1 million
$2.5 million
$3 million
$4.5 million
$3 million

Capacity requirements are computed by multiplying the number of units scheduled for production at a
work center by the:
unit resource requirements and then subtracting the setup time.
setup time and then subtracting the unit resource requirements.
unit resource requirements and then adding in the setup time.
setup time and then adding in the unit resource requirements.
unit resource requirements and then adding in the setup time.

Greyon Spinning Mills Inc. owns 600 spinning machines. Out of these, only 500 are used in a given year.
Given this information, the utilization of spinning machines at Greyon Spinning Mills Inc. is:
1.2.
0.83.
0.75.
1.
0.83

Each bank teller workstation is forecasted to process 220 transactions (the end item) on Friday. The bank
is open from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Friday, with 90 minutes for lunch and breaks. Three teller
windows are open on Friday. A work-study analysis reveals that the breakdown of the transaction mix is
30 percent deposits, 45 percent withdrawals, and 25 percent transfers between accounts. A different
form is used for each type of transaction, so there is one deposit slip per deposit, one withdrawal slip per
withdrawal, and two transfer slips per transfer. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.
How many withdrawal slips are needed on Friday?
294
287
297
291
297
(220 transactions/workstation)(3 workstations)(0.45)(1 slip/transaction) = 297

What type of demand needs to be forecast?


Independent
Dependent
Both independent and dependent
Semi-dependent
Independent

An exponential smoothing model must have a smoothing constant (α) ________ to be roughly
equivalent to a moving average model with a seven-month moving average.
more than 0.20
more than 0.15 but less than or equal to 0.20
less than or equal to 0.10
more than 0.10 but less than or equal to 0.15
more than 0.20

Which statement is true of the lot-for-lot (LFL) rule?


It masks the true nature of dependent demand.
It maximizes the amount of inventory that needs to be carried.
It minimizes the costs associated with production setups.
It ignores the costs associated with purchase orders.
It ignores the costs associated with purchase orders.

Each bank teller workstation is forecasted to process 200 transactions (the end item) on Friday. The bank
is open from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Friday, with 90 minutes for lunch and breaks. Four teller windows
are open on Friday. A work-study analysis reveals that the breakdown of the transaction mix is 50
percent deposits, 40 percent withdrawals, and 10 percent transfers between accounts. A different form
is used for each type of transaction, so there is one deposit slip per deposit, one withdrawal slip per
withdrawal, and two transfer slips per transfer. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.
How many transfer slips are needed on Friday?
190
140
160
60
160
(200 transactions/workstation)(4 workstations)(0.10)(2 slips/transaction) = 160
__________ integrate all aspects of a business—accounting, customer relationship management, supply
chain management, manufacturing, sales, human resources—into a unified information system, and they
provide more timely analysis and reporting of sales, customer, inventory, manufacturing, human
resource, and accounting data.
Capacity requirements planning systems
Aggregate planning methods
Enterprise resource planning systems
Master planning systems
Enterprise resource planning systems

Economies of scale occur when the average cost per unit ________ and the fixed cost per unit:
increases; decreases.
decreases; decreases.
decreases; increases.
increases; increases.
decreases; decreases.

__________are goods and services that can be produced or delivered using the same resources available
to the firm, but whose seasonal demand patterns are out of phase with each other.
Complementary goods
Substitute goods
Family of goods
Normal goods
Complementary goods

Scorla Corp. is an apparel manufacturing factory. Its average resource utilization per year is calculated as
70%. The average safety capacity of Scorla Corp. is:
50%.
40%.
20%.
30%.
30%.
=100% − Average resource utilization

What is the focus of ABC inventory analysis?


ABC inventory analysis assigns inventory management based on advanced, basic and complementary
inventory items.
ABC inventory analysis focuses on inventory based on large physical volumes.
ABC inventory analysis focuses on large dollar value inventory items.
ABC inventory analysis is an alphabetized listing of all inventory items.
ABC inventory analysis focuses on large dollar value inventory items.

A ________ is a strategy for expanding capacity that waits until demand has increased to a point where
additional capacity is necessary.
capacity match strategy
capacity reduction strategy
capacity lag strategy
capacity lead strategy
capacity lag strategy

Crew Soccer Shoes Company is considering a change in its current inventory control system for soccer
shoes. The information regarding the shoes is as follows:
Average demand = 330 pairs/week
Lead time = 3 weeks
Order cost = $70/order
Unit cost = $29.50
Carrying charge rate = 0.30
Desired service level = 85 percent
Standard deviation of weekly demand = 30
Number of weeks per year= 52
The company decides to use a fixed-order-quantity system. What is the economic order quantity? What
should be the reorder point to have an 85 percent service level? Use Appendix A to determine z-value.
Round z-value to two decimal places. Do not round any other intermediate calculations. Round your
answers to the nearest whole number.
579, 1,544
251, 1,044
521, 1,044
521, 1,144
521, 1,044
SQRT((23305270)/(29.500.3)) = 521
(330)*3+1.4(30)= 1044

Which statement is true of order amplification?


Increasing price fluctuations can help manage order amplification.
Order amplification decreases as one moves back up the supply chain away from the retail customer.
Order amplification in the supply chain leads to the bullwhip effect.
Large order sizes can help manage order amplification
Order amplification in the supply chain leads to the bullwhip effect.
Managing supplier relationships involves:
establishing trust, openness, and honesty with the supplier
having short term relationships with suppliers that are solely based on price.
an adversarial approach to the supplier.
single sourcing suppliers.
establishing trust, openness, and honesty with the supplier

________ is the discipline of managing the flow of materials and transportation activities to ensure
adequate customer service at reasonable cost.
Integration
Procurement
Logistics
Scheduling
Logistics

In the context of ABC inventory analysis, which statement is true of class A items?
Class A items account for more than 50 percent of inventory items.
Class A items can be managed using automated computer systems.
Class A items require close control by operations managers.
Class A items comprise less than 30 percent of the total dollar usage.
Class A items require close control by operations managers.

Each bank teller workstation is forecasted to process 220 transactions (the end item) on Friday. The bank
is open from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Friday, with 90 minutes for lunch and breaks. Three teller
windows are open on Friday. A work-study analysis reveals that the breakdown of the transaction mix is
30 percent deposits, 45 percent withdrawals, and 25 percent transfers between accounts. A different
form is used for each type of transaction, so there is one deposit slip per deposit, one withdrawal slip per
withdrawal, and two transfer slips per transfer. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.
How many withdrawal slips are needed on Friday?
297
(220 transactions/workstation)(3 workstations)(0.45)(1 slip/transaction) = 297

A single-period inventory problem can be solved using a technique called ________ analysis.
reorder point
critical value
marginal economic
total cost
marginal economic
Suzie's Sweetshop makes special boxes of Valentine's Day chocolates. Each costs $17 in material and
labor and sells for $26. After Valentine's Day, Suzie reduces the price to $11.00 and sells any remaining
boxes. Suppose that demand is normally distributed with a mean of 60 and a standard deviation of 10.
Determine the optimal number of boxes to make. Use Appendix A to determine z-value. Round z-value
to two decimal places. Do not round any other intermediate calculations. Round your answer to two
decimal places.
42.53
52.53
62.53
72.53
62.53

In your company, the inventory holding period is 46 days, the average collection period is 35 days, and
the average accounts payable payment period is 31 days. What is the cash to cash conversion cycle in
days based on this information?
50 days
46 days
81 days
102 days
50 days

What is a disadvantage of vendor-managed inventory (VMI)?


VMI prevents vendors from making production decisions using downstream customer demand data.
VMI prohibits the use of customer information, which leads to poor control of inventory and capacity.
VMI often results in higher customer inventories than necessary.
VMI does not allow vendors to view inventory needs from the customer's perspective.
VMI often results in higher customer inventories than necessary.

Moving average (MA) methods work best when:


there is a major trend in a time series.
demand is relatively stable and consistent.
a long planning horizon is involved.
a cyclical pattern is observed in a time series.
demand is relatively stable and consistent.

________ are achieved when the average unit cost of a good or service decreases as the capacity and/or
volume of throughput increases.
Economies of scale
Diseconomies of scale
Unfocused factories
Safety capacities
Economies of scale

_________ is the difference between the observed value of the time series and the forecast.
Forecast density
Forecast precision
Forecast error
Forecast consumption
Forecast error

Based on the constant demand assumption in the economic order quantity (EOQ) model, the average
cycle inventory is:
half of the annual usage.
half of the order quantity.
the order quantity divided by the number of inventory cycles per year.
the annual demand divided by the number of inventory cycles per year.
half of the order quantity.

Tracking signal provides a method for doing this by quantifying ______—the tendency of forecasts to
consistently be larger or smaller than the actual values of the time series.
systemic error
bias
discrimination
poor forecasting
bias

In the context of inventory management, a(n) ________ is a single item or asset stored at a particular
location.
buffer stock
average lead stock
stock-keeping unit
make-to-stock product
stock-keeping unit

Which lot sizing rule is best applied when setup or order costs are high?
Gross requirements rule
Periodic-order quantity rule
Fixed-order quantity rule
Lot-for-lot rule
Fixed-order quantity rule

In the context of aggregate planning options, which costs are an implication of allowing stock outs?
Separation costs
High labor costs and premiums
Inventory-carrying costs
Lost sales and customer loyalty costs
Lost sales and customer loyalty costs

__________ specialize in handling all aspects of customers giving back a manufactured good or delivered
service and requesting their money back, repairing the manufactured good and giving it to the customer,
and/or invoking the service guarantee.
Return facilitators
Demand forecasters
Certified suppliers
Process designers
Return facilitators

CraftWare Inc., a furniture manufacturer, uses ABC analysis to define its inventory value. The inventory
contains wood, cast iron, adhesive, and carbon fiber. If wood accounts for 50 percent of the items and 5
percent of the total dollar value; carbon fiber accounts for 10 percent of the items and 60 percent of the
total dollar value; cast iron accounts for 25 percent of the items and 18 percent of the total dollar value;
and adhesive accounts for 15 percent of the items and 17 percent of the total dollar value, _________
can be classified as a class C item.
adhesive
cast iron
wood
carbon fiber
wood
In the given scenario, wood can be classified as a class C item. Typically, A items comprise 60 to 80
percent of the total dollar usage but only 10 to 30 percent of the items, whereas C items account for 5 to
15 percent of the total dollar value and about 50 percent of the items.

Which statement is true of setup time?


It is usually the same for manufacturing and service-providing applications.
It is the most insignificant part of total system capacity.
It is independent of order size for manufacturing work orders.
It varies with the volume of work orders.
It is independent of order size for manufacturing work orders.
Capacity requirements are computed by multiplying the number of units scheduled for production at a
work center by the:
unit resource requirements and then subtracting the setup time.
setup time and then adding in the unit resource requirements.
unit resource requirements and then adding in the setup time.
setup time and then subtracting the unit resource requirements.
unit resource requirements and then adding in the setup time.

In service industries, capacity is often viewed as the:


amount of overtime scheduled.
amount of setup time.
minimum rate of output per unit time.
units of resource availability.
units of resource availability.

A(n) _________ is any entity—real or virtual—that coordinates and shares information between buyers
and sellers.
investor
intermediary
manufacturer
franchisor
manufacturer

A(n) __________ is a statement of how many finished items are to be produced and when they are to be
produced.
capacity requirements plan
aggregate plan
master production schedule
gross requirements schedule
master production schedule

In the context of inventory costs, ________ costs can reflect lost sales for external customers or costs
associated with interruptions to assembly lines for internal customers.
setup
ordering
holding
stock out
stock out
In the context of measuring supply chain performance, the goal of sustainability measures is to:
minimize the time taken to fill a customer's order.
have a carbon-neutral supply chain.
reduce the order cycle time for all customers.
have a byproduct-free production process.
have a carbon-neutral supply chain.

In the context of forecasting errors, _________ eliminates the measurement scale factor.
mean absolute percentage error
normalized root mean square error
normalized mean signed deviation
mean absolute deviation
mean absolute percentage error

The traditional operations management definition of throughput is:


a physical activity in which idle capacity exists.
associated with the capacity of a resource such as a machine, employee, or workstation.
the average number of goods or services completed per time period by a process.
anything in an organization that limits it from moving toward its goal.
the average number of goods or services completed per time period by a process.

In the context of a fairly stable time series with relatively little random variability, which of the following
statements is true of single exponential smoothing (SES)?
Values of the smoothing constant smaller than 0.1 allow a forecast to react faster to changing conditions.
Typical values for the smoothing constant are in the range of 1 to 1.5.
Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data.
Exponential smoothing models completely forget past data if the smoothing constant is strictly between
0 and 1.
Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data.

In your company, the inventory holding period is 16 days, the average collection period is 5 days, and the
average accounts payable payment period is 15 days. What is the cash to cash conversion cycle in days
based on this information?
6 days
20 days
21 days
36 days
6 days
=16+5-15
Alex, a manager at Symbic Inc., plotted the company's total energy costs of 1 billion dollars over the past
10 years on a chart. The chart suggested that the energy costs appear to be increasing in a fairly
predictable linear fashion and that the energy costs are related to time by a linear function Y t =3+5t,
where Y trepresents the estimate of the energy cost in year t. Given the equation, which of the following
is the value of the intercept of the straight line that best fits the time series?
3

When no historical data are available, _____ is the sole basis for predicting future demands.
Judgmental forecasting

_____ are needed to plan workforce levels, allocate budgets among divisions, and schedule jobs and
resources.
Intermediate-range forecasts

A__________is the underlying pattern of growth or decline in a time series.


Trend

An exponential smoothing model must have a smoothing constant (α) _____ to be roughly equivalent to
a moving average model with a seven-month moving average.
More than 2.0

In the context of data patterns in a time series, regular patterns in a data series that take place over long
periods of time are called _____.
Cyclical Patterns

In the context of a fairly stable time series with relatively little random variability, which of the following
statements is true of single exponential smoothing (SES)?
Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data.

If the time series in an exponential smoothing model exhibits a negative trend, the _____.
Forecast will overshoot the actual values

We have an expert-written solution to this problem!


A tracking signal provides a method for monitoring a forecast by quantifying _____.
Bias
_____ are necessary to plan for facility expansion.
Long-range forecasts

__________is based on the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.
Statistical forecasting

Moving average (MA) methods work best when:


Demand is relatively stable and consistent.

In the context of data patterns and variations in a time series, _____ are characterized by repeatable
periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.
Seasonal patterns

In the context of forecasting, the term__________refers to the tendency of forecasts to consistently be


larger or smaller than the actual values of the time series.
Bias

In the context of data patterns in a time series, a(n) _____ is a one-time variation that is explainable.
Irregular variation

_____ is a common approach to gather data for judgmental forecasts.


A survey questionnaire

__________is a method for building a statistical model that defines a relationship between a single
dependent variable and one or more independent variables, all of which are numerical.
Regression analysis

__________is the difference between the observed value of the time series and the forecast.
Forecast error

__________is a forecasting technique that uses a weighted average of past time-series values to forecast
the value of the time series in the next period.
Single exponential smoothing
Which of the following is an example of waste in organizations?
Planned product obsolescence

A__________produces finished-goods inventory in advance of customer demand using a forecast of


sales.
Push system

In the context of the major categories of waste classified by the Toyota Motor Company, which of the
following is true of overproduction?
It ties up production facilities, and the resulting excess inventory simply sits idle.

Create & Sell Manufacturing Inc. uses a Kanban system for a component. The daily demand is 175 units.
Each container has a combined waiting and processing time of 0.20 days. If the container size is 10
brackets and the safety factor is 11 percent, how many Kanban card sets should be authorized?
4

A manufacturer of automobile engines is designing a new Kanban system for engine #321. The demand
for #321 is 75 parts per day, and the container can hold 8 parts at a time. The total processing and
waiting time is 3 days. The manager wants a safety factor (α) of 2 or 200 percent. How many Kanbans are
required in this system?
85

The equation used to calculate the number of Kanban cards required in a system is K space equals space
fraction numerator d space left parenthesis p space plus space w right parenthesis space left parenthesis
space 1 space plus alpha right parenthesis over denominator C end fraction
A form of safety stock

Drive-in-Style Motors follows a traditional manufacturing system. It produces a fixed number of cars
every month. It is now planning to switch to a system of manufacturing where workers go to the source
of required parts and withdraw them based on requirements. In this scenario, which of the following is
most likely to occur if Drive-in-Style Motors implements this plan?
It's component parts and subassemblies will be replenished only when needed.

In the context of lean tools and approaches,__________, one of the components of the 5S principles,
refers to a clean work area.
Shine

__________is focused on ensuring that operating systems will perform their intended function reliably.
Total productive maintenance(TPM)

Which of the following is true of a push manufacturing system?


It leads to high work-in-process inventories and high levels of indirect labor and overhead.

The expected time for any PERT task to complete is given by ________.
(A + 4M + B)/6

The duration of any project is determined by the ____________.


Longest path through the Project Network

Which of the following is an assumption made by the critical path method (CPM)?
The activity time estimates are accurate and stable.

In the project management life cycle, the__________involves collecting and assessing status reports,
managing changes to baselines, and responding to circumstances that can negatively impact the project
participants.
Controlling Stage

A__________is a temporary and often customized initiative that consists of many smaller tasks and
activities that must be coordinated and completed to finish the entire initiative on time and within
budget.
Project

In the context of projects,__________are discrete tasks that consume resources and time.
Activities

Which of the following is an example of a project that belongs to the functional area of accounting and
finance?
Planning a firm's initial public offering
If an activity can be completed in 10 weeks at a cost of $3,200 instead of the normal time of 12 weeks at
a cost of $2,400, then the crash cost per week for the given activity is _____.
$400

Which of the following stages of the project life cycle entails the scheduling of activities?
The Planning Stage

Which of the following is true of crashing a project?


It increases the total cost of the project.

In the context of the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), which of the following is true of
the beta probability distribution approach?
It allows managers to identify the best case, worst case, and most likely case for activity times.

The district magistrate of a city has decided to reconstruct the most frequented street of the city. He
plans to block the street for the duration of the work, which will cause considerable inconvenience to the
people of the city. The project has three parallel paths defined as the following:
Path A-B-C-H will take 16 days.
Path A-D-E-H will take 22 days.
Path A-F-G-H will take 30 days.
In the given scenario, which of the following statements is true?
Path A-F-G-H is the critical path.

In the context of project management,__________a project involves releasing and reassigning people.
Closing

Which of the following is true of a typical functional organization?


A project cuts across organizational boundaries in a typical functional organization.

In the context of the Critical Path Method (CPM), the slack time (ST) for an activity is computed as:
The latest start (LS) time minus the earliest start (ES) time. (LS-ES) or (LF-EF)

Implementing a new computer-aided design system is an example of a project in the functional area of
_____.
Engineering
__________refers to reducing the total time to complete the project to meet a revised due date.
Crashing a Project

Which of the following is true of the Critical Path Method (CPM)?


It assumes that activities are independent of one another, with clearly defined start and finish dates.

Seasonal patterns
In the context of data patterns in a time series, ____ are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and
downs over short periods of time

A survey questionnaire
_____ is a common approach to gather data for judgmental forecasts

Error
Forecast ____ is the difference between the observed value of the time series and the forecast

2280
Marvin Windows conducted a regression analysis. They predicted that the sales are related to time by a
linear function Yt=240+340t. Using simple linear regression, calculate the forecast for sales in year 6.

3
Alex, a manager at Symbic Inc., plotted the company's total energy costs of 1 billion dollars over the past
10 years on a chart. The chart suggested that the energy costs appear to be increasing in a fairly
predictable linear fashion and that the energy costs are related to time by a linear function Yt =3+5t,
where Yt represents the estimate of the energy cost in year t. Given the equation, which of the following
is the value of the intercept of the straight line that best fits the time series?

Bias
A tracking signal provides a method for monitoring a forecast by quantifying _____.

275
Based on the following table, what is the mean square error? (Photos)

116
The following table shows the data for the sales of a new music album at a store for 4 consecutive
months. Find the forecast for the next month using a 3-month moving average. (Photos)

0.84
Durrarub Inc, makes rubber doors sealing accessories for industrial uses. The company wants to test how
closely the hardness of their door-selling products is correlated with temperature. It is known that the
higher the temperature, the lower the hardness, beginning at around 35 degrees celsius and up. The
regression results are reported below. What is the R^2 value? (Photos)

41.17
Referring to question 9, if the oven is increased to 45 degrees celsius, what would you predict that the
hardness measure will be? (Photos)

Economies of scale
_____ occurs when the average unit cost of a good or service begins to decrease as the capacity and/or
volume of throughput increases.

0.83
Greyon Spinning Mills Inc. owns 600 spinning machines. Out of these, only 500 are used in a given year.
Given this information, the utilization of spinning machines at Greyon Spinning Mills Inc. is _____.

The average number of goods or services completed per time period by a process
The traditional operations management definition of throughput is:

100% - Average Resource Utilization (%)


Average safety capacity (%) is computed using the formula:

Is a focused factory
At Rues and West Bros., a spare parts manufacturing company, the most important competitive priority
is quality. Only a few key spare parts are produced using similar process designs. In this scenario, Rues
and West Bros. _____.

Lag
Blyrie Inc., a sports goods manufacturing company, follows a policy that involves manufacturing only
when the demand exceeds the amount of goods already manufactured. Given this information, Blyrie
Inc. most likely uses a capacity ____ strategy to expand its capacity.
140.42
Suppose that the time for the first unit is 250 minutes, and we estimate an 80% learning curve. How
much time will the 6th unit take?

Resources used
In one method of calculating utilization, _____ divided by Resources Available.

Identify the work activity that has the smallest throughput


Which of the following describes the general process for identifying a bottleneck?

Flow
_____ time is the average time it takes to complete one cycle of a process

One or more parallel servers fed by a single queue


_____ is the typical queuing system used by banks and airline ticket counters

Arrivals
Analytical queuing models assume a Poisson probability distribution for _____.

10
As the assistant manager of a restaurant, how many servers will you need given the following
information for Saturday night"s dinner menu?
Demand (dinners served) = 120 dinners per hour
Server target utilization = 80%
Service rate per server = 15 dinners/hour

0.33
An airport limousine service has one employee work the airport counter. A customer arrives an average
of once every 3 minutes, and it takes, on average, 2 minutes to process the transaction. What is the
probability that the system is empty?

0.66
Referring to Question 24, what is the probability that a customer must wait for service?
1.33
Referring to Question 24, what is the average number of customers waiting for service in the queue?

0.07
Referring to Question 24, what is the average wait time in the queue?

0.04
Referring to Question 24, what is the probability of five customers in the system (queue and in-service)?

C and D
Considering the following process shown in (Photos). Where is the bottleneck workstation?

270
Referring to Question 29, if this system works a 45-hour week, how many parts per week can this
production cell produce?

The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the forecasts shown in the table is between 10% and
15% 12.

MAPE is a measure of how well a forecast model performs. It is calculated as the average of the absolute
differences between the forecasted and actual values, expressed as a percentage of the actual values 3.

In this case, we can calculate the MAPE as follows:

For April: |(110 - 100) / 100| * 100 = 10%


For May: |(150 - 125) / 125| * 100 = 20%
For June: |(160 - 170) / 170| * 100 = 5.9%
For July: |(110 - 130) / 130| * 100 = 15.4%
For August: |(150 - 180) / 180| * 100 = 16.7%
The average of these percentages is (10 + 20 + 5.9 + 15.4 + 16.7) / 5 = 13.2% 1.

Therefore, the MAPE for the forecasts shown in the table is between 10% and 15% 12.

Learn more:
Terms in this set (20)

Original
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts shown below: Month, forecast demand, actual
demand
April: 190,180
May: 175, 200
June: 190, 200
July: 240, 220
August: 225, 195
More than 10 but less than or equal to 20

The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the forecasts shown below:
Month, forecast demand, actual demand
April; 110, 100
May; 150, 125
June; 160, 170
July; 110, 130
August; 150, 180
More than 10 percent but less than or equal to 15 percent

In the context of forecasting errors, ______________ eliminates the measurement scale factor
Mean absolute percentage error

Moving average (MA) methods work best when:


demand is relatively stable and consistent

The following table shows the data for the sales of a new music album at a store for 4 consecutive
months. Find the forecast for the next month using a 3-month moving average
Month, sales
1, 112
2, 105
3, 125
4, 118
The forecast for the next month is more than 110 but less than or equal to 120

The following table shows the data for the sales of tennis rackets at a store for 4 consecutive months.
Find the forecast error in month 4 using a 3-month moving average;
Month, sales
1, 80
2, 95
3, 125
4, 110
The forecast

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