Fiches cours anglais

1- Introduction : Biographie and demographic transition

John Graunt (1620-1674) :

He was born in London, English statistician and considered as the first demographer.

Originally : haberdasher (mercerie) , began to study vital statistics from parish registers (registres
paroissiaux).

He found that death rates were higher in urban than rural areas. Also the male birth rate was higher
than the female birth rate but it was offset (compensé) by a higher mortality amongst male.

Friend with William Petty.

Inventor of the first life table (table de mortalité).

Franck W.Notestein (1902-1983)

American demographer, received a PhD in social statistics in 1927 from Cornell University.

He was the most prominent formulator (le formulateur le plus en vue) of the demographic transition
theory linking population growth and economic development.

That was building on the types of growth patterns of demographic transition that was found by
Warren Thompson and Adolphe Landry.

Demographic transition :

 Landry and Thompson : 1920s to 1934

 Notestein 1945
 Blacker : 1947 with 5 stages
 Notestein, Cardon and Davis (1950) : stabilization at last stage

The demographic transition

-> transition from a traditional regime where fertility and mortality are high and more or less in
balance, to a regime in which the birth rate and mortality are low and are also in balance.
Largest Population by Country in 2050

India (1 660 000), China (1 364 000), Nigeria (411 000), USA, Indonesia, Pakistan…

A brief history of world population growth

The Epidemiologic transition :

Abdel R. Omran 1951 ‘The Epidemiologic Transition’

He was professor of epidemiology at the university of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

His conception of an epidemiologic transition was one of the first attempts to account for the effects
of major changes in health services and standards of living on patterns of disease.

2- Demographic transition and mortality

Crises of the past: war, famine, diseases:

Population: (in millions)

- Mexico: 1519: 25, 1532 : 16,8, 1548 : 6,3, 1580 : 1,9

Disorganize the economy and production -> very dramatic episode for this country (Mexico and
Perou).

There are also a lot of famines in Asia and India in the past centuries. Also, some of the underlines
causes:

 Conflicts
 Adverse weather conditions
 Aggravating factors: Social and economic mismanagement

The last big famine was in India in the beginning of twenty centuries.

Europe: Epidemics

“The black death” (1346-1351) -> the plague

Over 25 million deaths: 1/3 of the population of Europe.

First develop in Sicily and Italie, then South of France, and diffusion in most of Europe.
Episode was violent ant it took 150 years for population to recover (The population level of Europe
was back in 1500 (150 years later).
Commercial ship was a very good medium to bring the plague and to diffuse the plague.

The great plague (1665-66)

 The last major epidemic of the bubonic plague to occur in England spreading from parish to
parish.
 London lost about 15% of its population

Attenuation of mortality swings in Sweden (1735-1920)

Improve of the hygienic condition and improvement on medicine plan

The discovery of Yersinia pestis: Alexandre Yersin (1894)

He discovered the vacil at the end of the nineteenth century in Europe.

So, how do we explain the disappearance of the plague in 19th century: improvement of hygiene,
better life conditions.

Leading causes of death globally

In low-income countries : Neonatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease,
stroke

Lower middle income countries : ischaemic heart disease, stroke, neonatal conditions, chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease

High income countries : ischaemic heart diase, alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, stroke,
trachea, bronchus, lung cancers.

Age-specific gains

Gains : reducing infectious diseases has the biggest impact on infant and child mortality, playing the
main role in increasing life expectancy from 30 to over 70.

1800 : 32 years -> 1950 : 48 years -> 2012 : 70 years.

Life expectancy at birth : global improvement and regional differences

The epidemiologic transition : Abel OMRAN in 1971

3 majors successive stages :

1- The Age of Pestilence and Famine

Infectious disease and chronic malnutrition. It particularly affect children and young women in their
reproductive years. E0 = 30 -> small proportion survive to adulthood.

2- The Age of Receding Pandemics

Improvement sanitation, nutrition. E0 = 30:50. Larger proportion survive to adulthood.

Improvement in female and children survival associated with a shift in health and disease patterns.

3- The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases

E0 = 50 and plus. Improvements in survivorship registered among all age groups expect the older/
very old.

Economic and work condition improved, medical advances.

New risks associated with lifestyle (smoking etc). Increase in cancer, stokes, obesity.

More uniform population distribution -> Ageing.

4- Age of delayed degenerative diseases

E0 = 70 and above. Improvements in survivorship registered among the very old. Medical advances.
Delayed reduction in CVD due to ageing.

Limits of the epidemiologic transition theory

-> insufficient account of the role of poverty in determining disease risk and an oversimplification of the
transition patterns, which do not fil neatly into either historical periods or geographic locations.
Thinking beyond the epidemiologic transition

Development, testing, and implementation of innovative approaches to reduce the risks associated with the
sedentary lifestyle and hyper nutrition in developed countries should not overshadow the continuing threat
from infectious diseases, especially resistant strains or newly encountered agents.

3- Fertility and development

Definitions

Fertility: production of a live birth (natality)

Fecundity: Physiological capacity to conceive

Parity: Number of children born alive to a woman

Cohort: people born in a certain year

Total fertility rate (TFR): an estimation of the average number of children per women in a population in a given
period, assuming that women would experience age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) of that period over their
fertility life.

Calculating TFR:

Total fertility by region : High in Africa (4,7) but differences between region, Asia (2,2), Europe (1,6), Latin
America and the Caribbean (2,2)

GRAPHIQUES A VOIR

Intermediate determinants of fertility

K.Davis and J.Blake (1950) : The “intermediate variables” approach

-> first declaration to underlying that social factors of fertility change did not affect fertility directly but through
intermediate factors.

They help to understand how economic development and social structures are linked with low fertility
Bongaarts : proximate determinants of fertility (determinants immédiats de la…)

Bongaarts and Feeney’s Model (1998)

The Bongaarts model summarizes the relationship between the total fertility rate and the proximate
determinants of fertility and is worldwide known as the Bongaarts model of proximate determinants.

The Bongaarts model assumes that the natural reproductive capacity,i.e. total fecundity rate (TF) of women is
nearly the same for all women, but their actual reproductive performance is modified by four major proximate
determinants : marriage, contraception, induced abortion and postpartum infecundability which are measured
by four indices Cm, Cc, Ca and Ci respectively.

4- Population momentum and demographic dividend

Fertility replacement : 2,05 children per women

(pour 105 garçons, il nait 100 filles)

Population momentum :

When a country’s birth rate reaches low fertility (often roughly two children per woman), then ultimately the
population growth stops.

Population momentum is the time lag (decalage) between a change in birth/death rates and the slowing of
population growth.

-> Change in age structure impact on population growth

At present, the high fertility of the past means that countries like India are still growing, even if fertility is lower.

This is because the age structure of the population is young, with many oung women at childbearing age.

However, fewer births today means fewer mothers in 20 30 years’ time, and further reducing the rate of
population growth until population growth ends.
Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) : The percent of women of reproductive age who are using (or whose
partner is using ) a contraceptive method at a particular point in time.

The indicator is calculated as follows:

(# of women 15 49 using a contraceptive method / total # of women 15 49) x 100

Dependency ratios : The relative size of different age groups;

Elderly / Old age dependency ratio= Pop(65+) / Pop(15-64)

Child / Young age dependency ratio= Pop(<15) / Pop(15-64)

How a lower dependency ratio can accelerate economic growth?

-> Larger labour force may increase production

-> Per capita increase in resources for children education and health

-> family resources

-> public expenditure

So A low overall dependency ratio creates a window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth IN CASE
WHEN the right social and economic conditions and governance policies are in place, and investments are
made to support economic growth.

5- Gender discrimination and sex ratios

The Asian belt of classical patriarchy

-> from the Balkans through the Middle East and into North India and China

There is a discrimination against women and girls for centuries. In many countries in this zone, female life
expectancy was below male, often until the 1970s or even later.

* Factors of son preference

Patri-lineality : religious rituals, son support at old age, son inheritance / cost of daughters, marriage/ dowry
costs

Patri-locality : Kin pressure, Young wife(s limited autonomy in their (husband) household.

Values, norms -> daughters’ lower status and well-being.

Demographic manifestations of son preference :

Traditionnaly : male preferring stopping rule of childbearing : manifest itself in a sex-ratio bias at last birth. Girls
are more likely to live in larger families and to be first born(s).

-> Parity progression : girls are more common at lower birth order.

and excess female child mortality : due to female neglect, abandonment and infanticide. Bias in the sex-ratio of
children.

Since the 1980s : prenatal sex-selection -> bias in SRB in Asia, especially at higher birth orders.
Reading ; Son preference and Daughter Neglect in India :

In India, son preference is strong but not universal. Many mothers want a balance of sons and daughters, and
so, at least some girls are wanted.

Mother’s education is the single most significant factor in reducing son preference. Access to media also
significantly reduces son preference.

Wealth and economic development do not reduce son preference.

Living girls face a discrimination but all girls are not equally vulnerable : Girls with older sisters are most likely
to suffer in terms of health and nutrition.

There is 3 profiles of fertility transition (results from cluster analysis) by district : early fertility decline,
intermediate fertility decline and late fertility decline.

The historic patterns are reflected in recent trends.

Policy response :

The use of the medical diagnostic for prenatal sex determination banned in Asia.

The last is not often strongly enforced.

Economic incentives and schemes to promote the girl child