2021 | Factsheet

Climate change:
causes, consequences
and possible actions

Version 1.1
Imprint

Publisher
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina e. V.
German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina,
Jägerberg 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany

Editors
Dr. Christian Anton, Johannes Mengel, Dr. Elke Witt
German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
Contact: [email protected]

Translation
Peschel Communications GmbH, Freiburg

Graphics
Erfurth Kluger Infografik GbR, Berlin

Cover image
Shutterstock

Typesetting
Klötzner Company, Hamburg

DOI
https://doi.org/10.26164/leopoldina_03_00417

Published under the terms of CC BY-ND 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0

Recommended citation
German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina (2021):
Climate change: causes, consequences and possible actions. Halle (Saale).

Editorial deadline
October 2021

Note on version 1.1

Compared to the first version of the factsheet,
this version 1.1 contains several corrections and updates.
Contents

Causes of climate change......................................................... 4

The greenhouse effect: A simple energy balance determines the Earth’s
temperature..................................................................................................................... 5
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is higher today than ever before in the
last 800,000 years............................................................................................................ 6
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen continuously over the
last 60 years..................................................................................................................... 7
The global temperature has risen by 1.2 °C. In Germany, it has already gotten
2 °C warmer..................................................................................................................... 8
Human-induced global warming is happening at a rapid pace........................................ 9
The primary cause of modern global warming is human activity:
the combustion of fossil fuels and land use................................................................... 10
Where does the CO2 released by humans go?............................................................... 11

Consequences of climate change........................................... 12

Extreme weather events are becoming more common and more intense.................... 13
The sea level is rising and the ocean is becoming warmer and more acidic.................. 14
Ice-based habitats are impacted the most..................................................................... 15
Periods of drought endanger the forests....................................................................... 16
A 1.5 °C increase in temperature leads to the loss of many coral reefs......................... 17
Climate change causes hunger and food crises.............................................................. 18
Climate change impairs health....................................................................................... 19
Tipping points in the climate system could enhance climate change
or even make it irreversible........................................................................................... 20
Permafrost thaw releases more greenhouse gases........................................................ 21

Measures to counteract climate change................................ 22

Humanity only has a limited carbon budget remaining................................................. 23
The previously announced emissions reductions are insufficient.................................. 24
“Negative emissions” can only make a limited contribution.......................................... 25
Carbon pricing would be an effective method for reducing emissions ......................... 26
The existing carbon sinks such as soils, forests and oceans must be safeguarded........ 27
The international distribution of the remaining budget is a political and ethical.......... 28

Contributors................................................................................................................... 29
References...................................................................................................................... 30
4

Causes of climate change

The greenhouse effect: A simple energy balance determines the Earth’s

temperature..................................................................................................................... 5

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is higher today than ever before in the
last 800,000 years............................................................................................................ 6

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen continuously over the
last 60 years..................................................................................................................... 7

The global temperature has risen by 1.2 °C. In Germany, it has already gotten
2 °C warmer..................................................................................................................... 8

Human-induced global warming is happening at a rapid pace........................................ 9

The primary cause of modern global warming is human activity:

the combustion of fossil fuels and land use................................................................... 10

Where does the CO2 released by humans go?............................................................... 11

 Causes of climate change 5

Climate change upsets the Earth’s energy balance

in watts per square metre

340 100 239

(340, 341) (96, 100) (236, 242)
incident reflected thermal radiation
solar radiation solar radiation emitted back into space

+0.6
(0.2, 1.0)
excess
energy

atmospheric
window

80
(74, 91) greenhouse
absorbed by gases
the atmosphere
82 21
(70, 85) (15, 25)
latent palpable
heat heat

185 25
(179, 189) (22, 26)
directed at reflected by
the surface the surface

160 evaporation 398 342

(154, 166) (394, 400) (338, 348)
absorbed by given off by absorbed by
the surface the surface the surface

What causes climate change? The atmosphere is heated up when increased concentrations of greenhouse gases
capture some of the sun’s energy that is otherwise reflected back into space. The increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases cause this reflection to take place at higher atmospheric altitudes, where it is colder. This means
that less thermal radiation is released back into space. The excess energy is registered as a temperature increase
on the Earth’s surface and in the lower atmosphere. The numbers in brackets indicate the range of measurement
uncertainty.
Source: Wild et al. (2014), Loeb et al. (J. Clim. 2009), Trenberth et al. (BAMS 2009)

The greenhouse effect: A simple energy balance

determines the Earth’s temperature
• The key to understanding human-induced global warming from a natural science perspective lies
in the energy balance of our home planet and the physics behind the greenhouse effect.
• The sun emits radiation onto the Earth, where a third of this radiation is reflected and the rest is
absorbed. The Earth gives off long-wave thermal radiation, counteracting the short-wave radiation
coming from the sun (stable climate).
• Steam as well as carbon dioxide and methane molecules in the atmosphere prevent this radiation
from being emitted back into space, trapping heat and sending a portion of it back down toward the
Earth’s surface. Without this natural greenhouse effect, the global average temperature would be
about –18 °C instead of its actual 14 °C. This would not support life.
• Fossil fuel combustion has led to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
As a result, more heat is radiated back toward the Earth. The temperature on the Earth’s surface and
in the lower atmosphere has risen in turn.
• The greenhouse effect induced by humans has changed and continues to change the energy balance
on Earth, which has led to an excess energy flow of 0.6 watts/m2.
• At the same time, residues in the atmosphere left behind by the combustion of fossil substances
(aerosols) have a cooling effect.

Source: Loeb et al. 2009, Trenberth et al. 2009, Wild et al. 2015.
6 Causes of climate change

CO₂ content of the atmosphere over the last 800,000 years

in parts per million (ppm)

420
core sample data
413
direct measurements 2020
380
The CO₂ content remained
below this value for hun-
340 dreds of thousands of years
316
300 1958

260

220

180

800,000 years 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 today

During the last 800,000 years, the CO₂ content of the atmosphere was never as high as it is today.
Source: Lüthi et al. (Nature 2008), Keeling et al. (Scripps CO₂ Program Data)

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is higher today

than ever before in the last 800,000 years
• The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (and thus the climate) has repeatedly undergone drastic change
in the course of the Earth’s history.
• These climate changes were the result of changes in the energy balance (see above) and could have
been caused by various elements:
1. Changes in the sun’s luminosity.
2. Changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun.
3. Changes in the amount of climate-relevant gases (CO2, methane) and aerosols (atmospheric
particulate matter, e.g. from volcanic eruptions) present in the atmosphere.
4. Ice cover, cloud cover and the distribution of the continents, as even these influence how much
energy is reflected back into space (Albedo effect).
• Most research surrounding historical climatology on Earth is based on deposits from the periods
in question, for instance sediments on land and in oceans and seas as well as ice masses. Isotope
analyses of the calcareous shells of microplankton offer information on temperatures in the past,
while air bubbles trapped in ice provide samples of former atmospheric compositions – including
greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence from such sources has led researchers to the conclusion
that in the last 800,000 years, there has not been a single period in which the atmospheric concen­
trations of CO2 have even come close to those of today.
• The CO2 concentration has remained relatively stable over the last 10,000 years at 250–275 parts
per million (ppm).
• Since the Industrial Revolution beginning in the mid-18th century and the associated use of fossil
fuels as well as deforestation, CO2 and CH4 (methane) concentrations have increased to well above
the natural fluctuation range of the last 800,000 years.
• The latest research indicates that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is likely higher today
than it ever was in the past 3 million years.
• These high atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have the potential to destabilise
parts of the climate system in the long term, leading to severe consequences.

Source: Lüthi et al. 2008; Willeit et al. 2019., Keeling et al. n. d.

 Causes of climate change 7

CO₂ content of the atmosphere since 1958

in parts per million (ppm)

420
413
2020
400

380

360

340

320
316
1958

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Direct measurements of the atmosphere’s CO₂ content began on the island of Mauna Loa in 1958.
The continuous rise is only interrupted by growing seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. Every year,
this results in a periodical drop in CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere.
Source: NOAA (2020), Keeling et al. (2001)

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen

continuously over the last 60 years
• The CO2 concentration has been directly measured on the Hawaiian volcano Mauna Loa since 1958.
Since the measuring station is situated at a very high altitude (3397 m above sea level) and is hardly
impacted by local factors, the values recorded there are considered to be a good approximation of
the actual global CO2 concentration.
• The concentration has been continuously increasing since researchers began taking measurements.
In March 2021, it had reached a value of 417 ppm – the highest it has been in at least 800,000 years.
• This increase was only attenuated during the years of the oil crisis (from 1970) and following the
collapse of the economic system in the former Eastern Bloc at the end of the Cold War (1990).
• This series of measurements was key in understanding the relation between the combustion of fossil
materials and the concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. The first measurement was
taken in 1958 and recorded a concentration of about 316 ppm.
• The series of measurements illustrates characteristic fluctuation in the course of a year. During
summer in the Northern Hemisphere, the global CO2 concentration decreases since the increased
amount of vegetation absorbs more carbon. In the winter, the global CO2 concentration increases
again, as plants drastically reduce photosynthetic activity. The comparatively little vegetation in the
Southern Hemisphere cannot offset the increased release.

Source: Scripps Institution, NOAA (Global Monitoring Laboratory) (2020).

8 Causes of climate change

Global temperature and temperature in Germany since 1880

Temperature deviation from the mean value of the first years 1880–1910, in degrees Celsius

+2.5o
+2.0º
Germany

+2.0o

+1.5o

+1.0o

+0.5o
+1.2º
Global

–0.5o

–1.0o

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Temperature rises as a consequence of climate change occur faster over land than over the ocean.
Consequently, the average temperature over Germany since 1880 has risen by 2 degrees. The curves
illustrate the long-term trend.
Source: DWD/NASA GISTEMP

The global temperature has risen by 1.2 °C.

In Germany, it has already gotten 2 °C warmer
• Weather stations have been in use since the 18th century to measure temperatures on Earth, and
since the 19th century they have been spread across enough locations to generate a solid global
average. The graphic illustrates three distinct phases with regard to global temperature. Until 1940,
the Earth continuously warmed up slightly, followed by stable temperature values until the 1970s in
particular due to an increase in cooling aerosols (air pollution). Since then, we have been in a phase
of marked warming.
• Warming effects can typically be observed to a much greater extent over landmasses than over the
ocean. Between 2015 and 2019, the global temperature over land was about 1.7 °C hotter than the
values observed in pre-industrial times from 1850 to 1900.
• On average, the human-induced rise in greenhouse gases (in particular carbon dioxide and methane)
caused increased temperatures on the Earth’s surface (both land and ocean) by 1.2 °C since the
19th century.
• The annual average air temperature across the mean surface area of Germany increased by 2 °C from
1881 to 2019. The North Sea also became 2 °C warmer in this time.
• Fluctuations in solar radiation and volcanic eruptions as well as the climate system’s natural variabi-
lity have not had any measurable impact on global warming since 1951. The sun’s luminosity even
decreased slightly during this time.

Source: Deutscher Wetterdienst, NASA.

 Causes of climate change 9

Global temperature since the end of the last ice age

Temperature deviation in degrees Celsius

+1.0o
+1.2º
in 100
+0.5o
years

0o

–0.5o

–1.0o
previous reconstructions
newer reconstructions
measurement data
–1.5o

12,000 years 10.000 8000 6000 4000 2000 today

The Earth’s climate has changed significantly during the course of the Holocene. But the changes we are
currently experiencing are occurring more quickly than they would naturally.
Source: Bova et al. (2021), Shakun et al. (Nature 2012), Marcott et al. (Science 2013), NASA GISTEMP

Human-induced global warming is happening

at a rapid pace
• Modern global warming is happening at an extremely rapid pace in comparison to what climate
research has discovered thus far about natural global temperature increases in the course of the
Earth’s history.
• Sufficient data have now been collected from all parts of the world to be able to calculate the global
average temperature over the last 20,000 years – since the height of the last ice age. These data
indicate that the global temperature today is likely already warmer than at any other point during
the Holocene and thus any other time in the history of human civilisation.
• These data are also consistent with the model calculations of earlier temperatures.
• At the same time, drastic and abrupt regional temperature changes have also been observed in the
Earth’s history.
• One example of this is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) from about 55 million years
ago, where the temperature increased by about 6 °C within 4000 years. In relation to geological
benchmarks, the PETM was a very brief but extreme period of warming. The climate change we are
currently observing is occurring at an even quicker rate.

Source: Shakun et al. - 2012; Marcott et al. - 2013; Bova et al. - 2021.; NASA GISTEMP
10 Causes of climate change

Overall global CO₂ emissions, 1850–2019

by source, in billions of tonnes of CO₂ (Gt)

changes in
40 Gt land use

other2

30 Gt natural gas

20 Gt oil

10 Gt
coal

0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2019

The overwhelming portion of carbon dioxide which is emitted annually through human activities comes
from the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas.
1 e.g. deforestation, drainage of wetlands
2 e.g. cement production and gas flaring
Source: Global Carbon Project (2020)

The primary cause of modern global warming is human

activity: the combustion of fossil fuels and land use

• Overwhelmingly, the climate change we are witnessing now has been caused by humans.
• The observed warming of our climate system, in particular as it has been occurring since the
1950s, cannot be explained without taking into consideration the increase in greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
• The sun’s fluctuations within this time frame have only had a very small impact.

Source: Global Carbon Project - 2020.

 Causes of climate change 11

Where does the CO₂ released by humans remain?

Annual amounts as a percentage and in billions of tonnes (Gt), 2010–2019

86% (34.4 Gt) 31% (12.5 Gt) 46% (18.6 Gt)

combustion terrestrial ecosystems atmosphere
of fossil fuels

CO₂ sources CO₂ sinks

40.2 Gt
in total

14% (5.7 Gt)

changes in 23% (9.2 Gt) 0.4% (0.2 Gt)
land use ocean fate unclear

Only a portion of the carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere. The ocean and terrestrial ecosystems (such
as forests) also absorb carbon dioxide. Without these sinks, climate change would be even more extreme.
Discrepancies in totals between sources and sinks occur due to rounding.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2020)

Where does the CO2 released by humans go?

• The sources of anthropogenic CO2 as well as where it remains are analysed very precisely.
86 % of human CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2018 were the result of fossil fuel combustion;
14 % came from changes in land use.
• A portion of these emissions (31 %) is absorbed by terrestrial ecosystems and another portion (23 %)
by the ocean.
• The largest portion of human-induced CO2 emissions remains in the atmosphere (46 %).

Source: Global Carbon Project - 2020.

12

Consequences of climate change

Extreme weather events are becoming more common and more intense.................... 13

The sea level is rising and the ocean is becoming warmer and more acidic.................. 14

Ice-based habitats are impacted the most..................................................................... 15

Periods of drought endanger the forests....................................................................... 16

A 1.5 °C increase in temperature leads to the loss of many coral reefs......................... 17

Climate change causes hunger and food crises.............................................................. 18

Climate change impairs health....................................................................................... 19

Tipping points in the climate system could enhance climate change

or even make it irreversible........................................................................................... 20

Permafrost thaw releases more greenhouse gases........................................................ 21

 Consequences of climate change 13

Record temperatures and precipitation are becoming more frequent

and more extreme
Global record temperatures per year, 1880–2020, Total precipitation: change in the number of record-
increase factor compared to a stable climate breaking events per year as a percentage, 1900–2010
16 +60%

14 +50%

12 +40%

10 +30%

8 +20%

6 +10%

4 0

2 –10%
1
0 –20%

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2010

Temperature and precipitation records continue to be broken with greater frequency.

Source: Lehmann et al. (Clim. Change 2015), DWD

Extreme weather events are becoming more common

and more intense
• Extreme weather events worldwide are the most direct palpable effects of climate change. These
include the devastating 2020 forest fires in Australia, the perpetual drought in Southern Africa and
the heat in the Arctic circle in the region of Siberia with temperatures reaching 38 °C.
• The frequency of extreme weather events is increasing worldwide, in particular extreme heat,
droughts, extreme precipitation and powerful tropical storms. Statistically, it is quite difficult to
provide proof of an increase in extreme weather. This has to do with the rarity of extremes and
corresponding historical measurement data. Thus, whether or not particularly powerful tropical
cyclones had indeed become more common, as predicted by physics and suggested by observa­-
tional data, long remained the topic of controversial debate.
• It was not until 2019 that the expert commission on tropical storms from the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) came to the conclusion that the frequency of hurricane-strength tropical storms
has measurably increased since the early 1980s.
• Increased instances of extreme temperatures can also be seen in Germany. For instance, tempe-
ratures of 40 °C or higher were observed on three consecutive days in 2019 for the first time since
weather records began. The temperature rose to at least 40 °C at 23 individual measuring points.
July 2019 was the hottest month overall in the history of recorded weather. This extreme heat is
also evident in the high number of forest fires.
• Heat waves lead to increased mortality. Europe’s exceptionally hot summer of 2003 cost 70,000
people their lives. Extreme weather events are also responsible for critical damage in the agricultural
sector.
• In the medium term, extreme weather events such as drought pose a threat to Germany’s supply of
resources such as water and agricultural products.

Source: Robine et al. - 2008; Deutscher Wetterdienst; Lehmann et al. - 2015; Watts et al - 2020; World Desaster Report - 2020
14 Consequences of climate change

Change in global sea level from 1900 to 2020

in centimetres

+20 cm
>20 cm
sea level data 2020
satellite measurements

+15 cm

+10 cm

+5 cm

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Sea level data and satellite measurements show that the sea level has risen by approximately
20 centimetres since 1900.
Source: Dangendorf et al. (2019)

The sea level is rising and the ocean is becoming warmer,

less oxygenated and more acidic
• Satellite measurements show that ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica occurring since 1990 has
accelerated a loss of ice mass. The sea level has risen by nearly 10 cm since 1993.
• The melting of ice sheets, for instance in Greenland and Antarctica, as a result of global warming
could cause the sea level to rise by several metres. This would affect about 400 million people.
• Global warming impacts much more than just the atmosphere. The oceans are particularly affected
as well. Since 1970, the Earth’s oceans have absorbed about 90 % of the additional warmth generated
by the greenhouse effect. Marine heatwaves have become more intense, and their frequency has
doubled since 1982.
• Warm water expands. The water expansion observed as a result of climate warming measures at
1.4 mm per year, making it responsible for about 40 % of the rise in sea level.
• Loss of oxygenation, increasing warming and acidification of the oceans is a danger to marine orga-
nisms and thus also threatens the food supply for many people.

Source: Dangendorf et al – 2019; Shepherd et al. – 2019.

 Consequences of climate change 15

Extent of Arctic sea ice from 1980 to 2020

in August of the corresponding year

1980 1990 2000

2010 2020

The surface area at the North Pole which is covered by ice in summer has been continuously receding
for decades.
Source: NSIDC

Ice-based habitats are impacted the most

• The observed loss in ice mass across the globe is more dramatic than was predicted in even the
most negative scenarios. The rate of ice loss has increased by 57 % since the 1990s. The ice sheets
of Greenland and Antarctica are losing mass at a particularly rapid pace.
• Greenland’s ice masses could melt completely if temperatures increase by 1.6 °C. Since the Green-
land ice sheet covers solid ground, its melting would have a dramatic impact on the sea level, life in
coastal regions and even for Europe’s climate.
• Antarctica is the largest ice store in the world. But especially marine ice sheets in Western Antarctica
(in particular in the Amundsen region) are becoming increasingly instable. The destabilisation of the
glacial border (ice shelf) also affects the Antarctic inland ice.
• If sea ice disappears, solar energy will be absorbed by the oceans and the atmosphere instead of re-
flected by ice. This will cause the Arctic to warm up more quickly than any other region of the Earth.
• Even mountain ranges are impacted by climate change. This is made most apparent by glacial
decline. Glaciers tend to lose ice mass during warmer periods by nature, but the current rate of loss
is unprecedented.
• Around 220 million people in Asia alone fully depend on glaciers for their water supply, irrespective
of periods of drought.
• Climate change has even had a negative impact on human settlements, infrastructure and tourism
in the European Alps. Altered freezing processes mean increased risk of natural hazards including
avalanches, landslides and flooding.

Source: Spehn & Körner – 2017; IPCC – 2019 ; Pritchard – 2019; Slater et al. – 2021; NSIDC; NASA 2021.
16 Consequences of climate change

Tree death rates in Germany

as a percentage, 1990–2019

2.5%
total
deciduous trees
coniferous trees
2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Each year, 10,000 selected trees are evaluated for the forest status report. The past years’ drought makes
trees more susceptible to pests and has led to an extreme spike in death, particularly of spruces, but also
of oak and pine trees.
Source: BMEL 2021

Periods of drought endanger the forests

• Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change. A temperature increase of just 1 °C can endan-
ger the functioning of a forest’s ecosystem. The forest then releases CO2 instead of absorbing it.
• Storms, heat and drought endanger forests even in Germany. The direct effects of multiple especially
hot summers are evident. Tree species such as spruces and beeches suffer from water shortage. This
makes them more susceptible to pests. At 27 percent on average, the mean crown defoliation of all
species of tree, in 2020, was higher than ever.
• The risk of forest fires in Germany will increase.

Source: IPBES – 2019; BMEL - 2020; IPCC - 2018 Sonderbericht 1,5°C; CBD
 Consequences of climate change 17

Ocean warming endangers coral reefs

Percentage of damaged corals from 1985 to 2012 and prognosis

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0
1985–1991 1992–1998 1999–2005 2006–2012 ~2030 ~2050

Between 1985 and 2012, the proportion of damaged corals has risen to about 25%. The reason for coral
bleaching and subsequent death is climate warming. By 2050, nearly all coral reefs could be affected.
Source: Heron et al. 2016

A 1.5 °C increase in temperature leads to the loss of

many coral reefs
• Coral is sensitive to warmer temperatures. When suffering from heat stress, coral expels the algae
living in it. This causes the coral to lose its colour, an effect known as coral bleaching.
• Major consequences of climate change for biodiversity can therefore be observed in the oceans.
The periods of regeneration after extreme warming will likely become shorter for coral reefs. This
will lead to extensive coral bleaching and death on a large scale.
• The latest studies (from 2016) show that 50–70 % of all coral reefs are already damaged.
• If the global temperature increases by 1.5 °C, 70–90 % of all coral reefs will disappear. At an increase
of 2 °C, this figure will rise to over 99 %.
• Corals have an important role as reef builders, and their disappearance has massive effects on fish
stocks within and outside of coral reefs.

Source: Jones et al. - 2004; Heron et al. - 2017; IPCC – 2018, 2019; IPBES – 2019; Hughes et al. – 2020.
18 Consequences of climate change

Example of agricultural damage: drought in grasslands

Percentage of grasslands afflicted by drought between 2004 and 2018

no drought
0–5%
5–10%
10–15%
15–20%

The map illustrates the proportion of global grassland which was afflicted by drought in the period
between 2004 and 2018.
Source: EU JRC ASAP

Climate change causes hunger and food crises

• The consequences of climate change will be most apparent in agriculture. Climate change impacts
the production of food as well as its quality, price and availability. This makes climate change an
additional factor preventing the achievement of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of
Zero Hunger.
• Increased temperature, shifting climatic zones and extreme weather events are all ways in which
climate change negatively impacts agricultural yields, livestock farming and fishing.
• The climate-related spread of pests and diseases leads to harvest and post-harvest losses, which
in turn result in an additional shortage of agricultural yields.
• In the long term, it can be assumed that climate change-induced shifts in global agricultural produc­
tion will change international food trade.

Source: Chakraborty & Newton – 2011; Elliot et al – 2014; Rosenzweig et al. – 2014; Grace et al. – 2015; FAO - 2018.
 Consequences of climate change 19

Health risks induced by climate change

Extreme - injuries
weather - deaths
- psychological effects
events
- cardiovascular disease
- exhaustion
- lack of recovery at night
Increasing - respiratory disorders
Heat stress - headache
concentration (if low-lying ozone
of CO₂ and other is involved)
greenhouse gases
- worsening of asthma
and other respiratory
Air quality diseases
- respiratory allergies
- cardiovascular diseases

Increase in - diarrhoeal diseases

- cholera
extreme weather Water quantity - harmful algal blooms
events and quality - leptospirosis

- undernutrition
- salmonella and other
forms of food poisoning
Food supply - mould infestation
and security
- Chikungunya
Rising sea level - dengue fever
- meningitis
- hantaviral infection
Spread of - Lyme disease
disease and - Malaria
ecology - Rift Valley fever
- West Nile fever
- Zika

- physical and mental

Temperature Social consequences of
increase factors violent conflict and
forced migration

Modified after Haines et al. (NEJM 2019)

Climate change impairs health

• Consequences of climate change with a direct effect on human health include heat stress leading to
increased mortality. In 2018, Germany had the third-highest rate of heat-related death worldwide
with over 20,000 cases.
• The human body can only adapt to severe heat to a very limited extent. Heat stress strains the
cardiovascular system, reduces recovery during sleep, impairs cognitive performance, lowers work
productivity and increases the risk of accident.
• Warmer temperatures can also facilitate the spread of infectious diseases, including those carried by
mosquitoes and ticks. These include Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) as well as other
illnesses formerly associated with travel medicine, such as those caused by Rickettsia or West Nile
fever, which is spread by indigenous mosquitoes.
• Moreover, mosquitoes and ticks from warmer domains – including Asian tiger mosquitoes, which
spread dengue fever, Zika and Chikungunya – are increasingly found as invasive species in other parts
of the world, including Europe.
• The World Health Organization predicts that, between 2030 and 2050, climate change could result in
an estimated 250,000 deaths per year purely on account of malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoeal diseases
and heat stress.

Source: Watts et al. – 2020; Haines et al. 2019.

20 Consequences of climate change

Tipping points in the climate system

Ice sheet Arctic sea ice
melting decline
Forest fires
and pests in
Boreal coniferous Permafrost
forests thaw

Interruption
of Atlantic
thermohaline
circulation
Monsoon
changes

Switch to a Amazon forest

permanent dieback Coral reef
Antarctic death
El Niño state
sea ice loss

Geological and ecological systems around the globe are losing their equilibrium as a result of climate change.
Some of these changes have a reinforcing effect on climate change, making it accelerate to the point that it can
no longer be stopped.
After Lenton et al. (Nature 2019)

Tipping points in the climate system could enhance

climate change or even make it irreversible
• Some elements of the climate system have critical threshold values. Exceeding these values could
lead to extreme and in some cases inexorable and irreversible changes.
• Changes in ocean currents could lead to a change in climatic conditions. One example of this is the
weakening of the Atlantic Ocean circulation underpinning the Gulf Stream. This would result in major
cooling in European weather conditions.
• The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets also have tipping points which, if exceeded, would mean the
permanent loss of ice regions. The causes for this are multiple self-enforcing ice-climate feedback
loops (in particular marine ice sheet instability, ice-albedo feedback and melt elevation feedback).
• Ice loss in Western Antarctica has tripled in the last 25 years.

Source: Heron et al. - 2017; Caesar et al. - 2018; Lenton et al. - 2019; Steffen et al. - 2019.
 Consequences of climate change 21

Example of a tipping point: permafrost

Arctic permafrost stores around half of all carbon stored in soils worldwide

1. Global warming leads to soil thaw. 2. The released carbon intensifies the
This allows stored carbon to escape. greenhouse effect as CO₂ in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse effect is intensified / further intensified

incident thermal Atmosphere warms up
radiation greenhouse effect

released CO₂

permafrost

Permafrost thaw releases more greenhouse gases

• The permafrost regions of Siberia are increasingly afflicted by heat waves. Each summer, deeper
portions of the upper soil layer thaw out for a longer period of time.
• The consequences of warming in the Boreal and Subboreal Arctic are more frequent and widespread
fires, erosion of Earth mass and the disappearance of large bodies of water.
• It is easier for microorganisms to break down plant and animal biomass in thawing soil. This process
releases the greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide. The Arctic could change from a store to
a source of greenhouse gases, thus accelerating climate change.
• Thus, permafrost thaw is designated as a tipping point in the climate system. A cascade of other
consequences of climate change could also be triggered from a certain point.
• Estimates show that Arctic permafrost stores about twice as much carbon than currently exists in
the atmosphere.
• Permafrost thaw also poses a threat to the stability of cities, transport routes, pipelines and industrial
plants.

Source: IPCC – 2019 ; Nitze et al. - 2018; Turetsky et al. - 2019

22

Measures to counteract climate

change

Humanity only has a limited carbon budget remaining................................................. 23

The previously announced emissions reductions are insufficient.................................. 24

“Negative emissions” can only make a limited contribution.......................................... 25

Carbon pricing would be an effective method for reducing emissions ......................... 26

The existing carbon sinks such as soils, forests and oceans must be safeguarded........ 27

The international distribution of the remaining budget is a political and ethical.......... 28

 Measures to counteract climate change 23

Limited carbon budget

Annual CO₂ emissions in billions of tonnes (Gt)
Year of the
2016 2021 2025
emissions transition

40 Gt

30 Gt Emissions budget Emissions budget

for 50% probability for 67% probability
of remaining below of remaining below
1.5 degrees 1.75 degrees
20 Gt

10 Gt

0 Gt
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

If the global rise in temperature is to be kept to a maximum of 2 degrees, a total of only about 1050 billion
tonnes (gigatonnes) of CO₂ can still be emitted. Limiting global warming to just 1.5 degrees would mean
restricting the total amount of emissions to less than 300 gigatonnes of CO₂. The longer we wait to reduce
emissions, the quicker and more radical later climate protection measures will need to be.
Data: IPCC SR15 (2018).

Humanity only has a limited carbon budget remaining

• The undersigning parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to restrict global warming to between
1.5 °C and significantly below 2 °C.
• If the global rise in temperature is to be kept to a maximum of 2 °C, a total of only about 1050 billion
tonnes (gigatonnes) of CO2 can still be emitted by all of the world’s countries together. Limiting global
warming to just 1.5 °C would mean restricting the total amount of emissions to less than 300 giga-
tonnes of CO2 by the year 2100. This will likely require the use of technologies capable of removing
CO2 from the atmosphere. But with regard to the size of the budget, there are still many uncertain-
ties associated with divergent definitions of the 1.5 °C target, differing assumptions on climate sen-
sitivity and the degree of warming to date as well as the future development of other greenhouse
gases, amongst other factors.
• Climate stabilisation pursuant to the Paris Agreement requires a rapid, sustainable and global depar-
ture from the use of fossil fuels. The longer we wait to reduce emissions, the more radical later climate
protection measures will have to be in order to prevent the global emissions budget for limiting
global warming from being exceeded.

Source: Edenhofer & Jakob – 2019; Die CO2-Uhr des MCC: https://www.mcc-berlin.net/forschung/co2-budget.html; IPCC 2018.
24 Measures to counteract climate change

Emissions must be substantially lower by 2030 than planned by governments

Projections for CO₂ emissions and emissions gaps in billions of tonnes of CO₂e (Gt CO₂e)
Emissions
60 Gt projections:
55 Gt no reductions
Emissions gaps
2030
50 Gt
announced
45 Gt reductions

40 Gt
in line with 2°goal:
35 Gt 2° goal 10–15 Gt CO₂e

30 Gt

25 Gt
in line with 1.5° goal:
1.5° goal 23–27 Gt CO₂e
20 Gt

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Based on emissions projections from countries around the world, it is clear that the intended emissions reduc-
tions are completely insufficient for achieving the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement. Limiting climate change
to 2 °C would require cutting down the already intended CO₂ emissions reductions by a further 10–15 gigatonnes
by 2030. To limit it to 1.5 °C would mean a further reduction of 23–27 gigatonnes.
Source: Carbon Action Tracker (Sept. 2020)

The previously announced emissions reductions

are insufficient
• All member states of the Paris Agreement approved to make nationally determined contributions
(NDCs) to enact the agreement’s resolution to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Via these
NDCs, the member states set the degree to which they pledge to reduce their own emissions.
• Pursuant to the target of the agreement, these planned reductions in combination should suffice
to limit climate change as envisaged. To ensure this, the agreement stipulates regular auditing of
the member states’ contributions. Should these reductions prove insufficient pursuant to the audits,
the states will be prompted to make the necessary improvements.
• Indeed, the latest round of updates five years subsequent to the Paris Agreement has already proven
the countries’ planned emissions reductions substantially insufficient for limiting climate change to
1.5 °C or well under 2 °C.
 Measures to counteract climate change 25

Examples of negative emissions technologies

Reforestation Forced weathering
Tree growth pulls CO₂ CO₂ Crushed minerals are CO₂
out of the atmosphere. introduced into the soil
to absorb CO₂.

Biochar Air filters

Partially combusted CO₂ is pulled from
CO₂
biomass is intro- the ambient air
duced into the soil through chemical
CO₂
and absorbs reactions and stored
additional CO₂. underground.

Bioenergy with CO₂ separation and compression Ocean fertilisation

Plants convert CO₂ into biomass, which is used as an Iron or other nutrients CO₂
energy carrier. The CO₂ released by the combustion are introduced into
is collected and stored underground. the ocean to increase
CO₂ CO₂ absorption.

“Negative emissions” can only make a limited contribution

• In view of the target to limit temperature increase to a maximum of 1.5 °C, it seems likely that
humanity will initially emit more CO2 than should be allowed if climate change is to be limited.
• “Negative emissions” refer to the process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Negative emissions
technologies (NETs) would allow the world to pay back the “credit” it has already taken out of the
carbon budget.
• However, many of the possible NETs lead to a conflict of aims. For instance, large-scale reforestation
would reduce the land available for food production.
• Many of the planned NETs have only been tested in small, localised applications. It is unclear to what
extent these can be used on a large scale around the world.
• These CO2 storage options should therefore be cautiously integrated into an overall strategy for
limiting climate change. Climate policy must prioritise short-term emissions reduction and a re­struc­-
­turing of the energy systems.

Source: MCC (2016)

26 Measures to counteract climate change

Effective carbon price

in euros per tonne of CO₂
The price is only high enough to be in line with
For about 30% of all emissions, the 2-degree target at or above 34 euros – this
the effective carbon price is zero. currently applies to approx. 10% of emissions.

30% 30% 9% 7% 4%
0€ <15 € <34 € <100 € <200 €

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportions of CO₂ emissions from energy utilisation

A carbon price serves as an effective tool for creating incentives to minimise emissions. However, this only
works if the price is set high enough. The price for the vast majority of emissions is set at zero, or it is much
too low to actually provide an incentive to control emissions. The data refer to 42 OECD and G20 countries
responsible for 80% of global emissions.
After UNEP Emissions Gap Report (2018)

Carbon pricing would be an effective method for

reducing emissions
• Carbon pricing serves as an incentive to prevent emissions, first and foremost in applications where
this can be achieved in the most cost-effective way possible.
• To successfully stabilise the global climate, an appropriate carbon price should be introduced
worldwide.
• However, the current price for the vast majority of emissions is set at zero, or it is much too low
to actually provide an incentive to control emissions.
• The implementation of carbon pricing can be achieved via an emissions trading system, which
deals with certificates that grant the right to deposit a limited amount of CO2 into the atmosphere.
A tax on CO2 emissions would be an alternative option.

Source: UNEP – 2018

 Measures to counteract climate change 27

CO₂ sources and sinks from 1850 to 2019

in billions of tonnes of CO₂ (Gt)

+40 Gt

+30 Gt combustion
of fossil fuels
+20 Gt
CO₂ sources
+10 Gt changes in
land use
0
ocean
–10 Gt
CO₂ sinks terrestrial
–20 Gt ecosystems
–30 Gt atmosphere

–40 Gt

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2019

Only a portion of the carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere. The ocean and terrestrial ecosystems (such
as forests) also absorb carbon dioxide. Without these sinks, climate change would be even more extreme. It is
unclear where a small portion of emissions – about 4% – remains. This is illustrated by the discrepancy visible
between sources and sinks. Source: Global Carbon Budget (2020)

The existing carbon sinks such as soils, forests and

oceans must be safeguarded
• In the last decades, soils, forests and the ocean have absorbed about half of all human-induced
CO2 emissions.
• It is unclear how long soils and forests will be able to continue absorbing CO2. Starting from around
2050, this effect might be reversed and these carbon sinks may instead emit additional CO2 instead
of absorbing it, in turn intensifying global warming.
• The ability of these sinks to absorb carbon must be safeguarded. But intensive use causes forests
and soils to lose their storage abilities.
• In Germany, bog soils play an important role in climate protection. Grassland used for agricultural
purposes is often built on former bogs. Grassland like this makes up 7 % of agricultural area, but
it is the root of 35 % of agricultural emissions. Re-establishing the sink function of these bog soils
requires comprehensive wetland restoration.

Source: Thünen-Institut – 2011; WBAE – 2016; Global Carbon Project — 2020

28 Measures to counteract climate change

Annual CO₂ emissions by region

in billions of tonnes (Gt)

16 Gt production-based emissions net importers

consumption-based emissions net exporters
14 Gt
OECD 1990
12 Gt Asia /
Asian Pacific
10 Gt

8 GT

6 Gt Eastern
Europe
4 Gt Middle East
and Africa
2 Gt Latin
America
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

In many countries, for instance those in Asia, emissions have skyrocketed in the last years. However, many goods
produced there are consumed in western countries. The emissions from the production of goods in one country
which are consumed in another raise the issue of just distribution of the remaining CO₂ budget.
Source: Edenhofer et al. (2019)

The international distribution of the remaining budget

is a political and ethical issue
• The solid line in the graph above measures CO2 emissions originating from the production of goods.
The dotted line represents the CO2 balance of products consumed in each labelled region. The
increasing importance of the trade balance can be gauged by anyone who is aware that a quarter
of global CO2 emissions stem from internationally traded products.
• While industrialised countries have produced high CO2 emissions for a long time, emissions in Asia
have skyrocketed in the last years.
• There are a number of reasons which explain the observed export surpluses or deficits in emissions:
differing techniques for generating energy, uneven balances of trade or specialisation in the export
of high-emission products.
• The emissions from the production of goods in one country which are consumed in another raise
the issue of just distribution of the remaining CO2 budget.
• Dividing the burden of climate protection is an important political and ethical issue which is too
complex to be regulated on the basis of consumption- or production-based emissions alone.
• With reference to the goals of the Paris Agreement and the urgency of decarbonisation on the global
scale by the middle of this century, industrialised countries such as Germany are called up on in
particular: In light of the over-proportionally high emission rates, the transformation process must be
advanced more quickly, with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality substantially earlier than by 2050.

Source: IPCC – 2014; Edenhofer & Jakob – 2019.

 Contributors 29

Contributors

This climate fact sheet was created in collaboration with:

Prof. Dr. Antje Boetius, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven
Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Prof. Dr. Sabine Gabrysch, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin
Prof. Dr. Nicolas Gruber, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Prof. Dr. Gerald Haug, German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
Prof. Dr. Daniel Klingenfeld, Federal Environment Agency, Dessau
Prof. Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Prof. Dr. Markus Reichstein, Max Planck Institute of Biochemistry, Jena
Prof. Dr. Thomas Stocker, University of Bern
Prof. Dr. Ricarda Winkelmann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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