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Lec 19 Onwards

The document discusses reliability of systems composed of multiple components. It describes how to calculate the reliability of series, parallel and other configurations based on the component reliabilities. It also discusses how the failure rate of a system relates to the failure rates of its individual components.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
14 views62 pages

Lec 19 Onwards

The document discusses reliability of systems composed of multiple components. It describes how to calculate the reliability of series, parallel and other configurations based on the component reliabilities. It also discusses how the failure rate of a system relates to the failure rates of its individual components.

Uploaded by

sonuksharma8471
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ME6226, Product Reliability

Dr. Piyush Shakya

Engineering Asset Management (EAM) Group

Department of Mechanical Engineering


Indian Institute of Technology Madras
[email protected]

https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/

February 29, 2024

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 1 / 62


Contents

1 System Reliability from Component reliabilities

2 Reliability Logic Diagrams

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 2 / 62


System Reliability

• A system is more complicated than the individual subsystems.

• The subsystems reliability is computed by performing failure data


analysis individually.

• The conguration in which subsystems are connected comes into


consideration.

• The congurations may be categorized into four types.


i Series
ii Parallel
iii Mixed
iv Complex

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 3 / 62


Series Conguration

• All subsystems should work for the system to work.

• Ej = the event that j th component doesn't fail before time t.

• P (Ej ) = Rj (t) ( j th component doesn't fail before time t).

• P (S) = P (E1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 ∩ E4 ∩ · · · · · · ∩ En )

P (E1 ∩E2 )
• P (E2 |E1 ) = P (E1 ) (Conditional Probability)

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 4 / 62


Series Conguration continued...

• P (E1 ∩ E2 ) = P (E2 |E1 ).P (E1 )


P ((E1 ∩E2 )∩E3 )
• P (E2 ∩E1 ) = P (E3 |(E2 ∩ E1 ))

theref ore, P (E1 ∩ E2 ∩ . . . En ) = P (E1 ).P (E2 |E1 ).P (E3 |E2 ∩ E1 )
.P (E4 |E3 ∩ E2 ∩ E1 ) . . . P (En |En−1 ∩ . . . E1 )

• If all Ej are independent of each other.

• P (E1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 . . . En ) = P (E1 ).P (E2 ).P (E3 ) . . . P (En )


• P (S) = P (E1 ).P (E2 ).P (E3 ) . . . P (En )
Yn
• Rs (t) = R1 (t).R2 (t).R3 (t) . . . Rn (t) = Ri (t)
i=1
• therefore, Rs (t) ≤ min{R1 (t), R2 (t), R3 (t) . . . Rn (t)}
Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 5 / 62
Failure modes for a system/components

• As system fails if any of these failure mode occurs.

• Assuming all failure modes are independent.

n
Q
• The system reliability: Rs (t) = Ri (t), where Ri (t) is the proba-
i=1
bility that the ith failure mode doesn't occur before time t.

• The reliability for the independent failure mode is same as series


conguration.

• Reliability of series system is always worse than its poorest


subsystem/failure mode.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 6 / 62


Failure data analysis (earlier slide)

• If the total population size is signicantly increased the histogram


of failure density (discussed earlier) will become a smooth curve.

Pk R∞
• j=1 fdj ∆t = 0 fd (ξ)dξ = 1

• fd (ξ) is probability density function and


R∞ ξ is the time to failure
(random variable).
0 fd (ξ)dξ = 1

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 7 / 62


Failure data analysis (earlier slide)
Pj Rt
• F (j∆t) = i=1 fdi ∆t will turn into F (t) = 0 fd (ξ)dξ

Rt R∞
• R(t) = 1 − F (t) =⇒ R(t) = 1 − 0 fd (ξ)dξ = t fd (ξ)dξ

fd (t)
• Recall from earlier Z(t) =
R(t)

Pk R∞
• MTTF= j=1 fdj (j∆t)∆t → MTTF = 0 tfd (t)dt

• The following expressions also may be proven easily


− 0t Z(ξ)dξ
R
• R(t) = e

R∞ R∞
• MTTF = 0
tfd (t)dt = 0
R(t)dt

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 8 / 62


System Reliability relation with failure rate
Rt
− Zs (ξ)dξ
• System reliability Rs (t) = e 0

• If subsystem/component j has hazard rate as Zj (ξ) then

Rt Rt Rt
n
Q − Z1 (ξ)dξ − Z2 (ξ)dξ − Zn (ξ)dξ
• Rs (t) = Ri (t) = e 0 e 0 ...e 0

i=1

Rt Rt P
n
− (Z1 (ξ)+Z2 (ξ)+...···+Zn (ξ))dξ − (Zj (ξ)dξ)
• Rs (t) = e 0 =e 0 j=1

Rt Rt P
n
− (Zs (ξ)dξ) − (Zj (ξ)dξ) n
P
• Rs (t) = e 0 =e 0 j=1
; =⇒ Zs (ξ) = Zj (ξ)
j=1

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 9 / 62


System Reliability relation with failure rate (Exponential)
(
1 − e−λt , time to f ailure (t) ≥ 0 1
1 F (t) = ; Mean=
λ;
0, time to f ailure (t) < 0
1
Variance= 2
λ
(
e−λt , t ≥ 0
2 R(t) = 1 − F (t) =
1, t<0
Rt
3 On comparing with R(t) = e− 0 Z(ξ)dξ
=⇒ Z(ξ) = λ(constant)

4 Failure rate is constant for exponential distribution.

5 If each components/failure mode follows constant hazard rate


(CHR)/CFR then Zs = λ1 + λ2 + λ3 + . . . · · · + λn = constant &
the system will be have CFR (exponential disttribution).

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 10 / 62


System Reliability relation with failure rate (Weibull)
−( t )β
(
( βη )( ηt )(β−1) e η , t ≥ 0
1 f (t) =
0, t<0

−( t )β
(
1−e η , t≥0
2 For Weibull distribution F (t) =
0, t<0

−( t )β
(
e η , t≥0
3 R(t) = 1 − F (t)=
1, t<0

fd (t)
4 on comparing with Z(t) = =⇒ Z(ξ) = ( βη )( ηξ )β−1
R(t)

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 11 / 62


System Reliability relation with failure rate (Weibull)

• If each components has Weibull failure density function such that


n
βj ξ βj −1 P βj ξ βj −1
Zj (ξ) = ηj ( ηj ) , then Zs (ξ) = ηj ( ηj )
j=1
• So the system does not exhibit Weibull type failures even though all
components show Weibull type failures.
n
P (ξ)β−1
• However, if βj = β for all j = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n; Zs (ξ) = β (ηj )β
j=1
n
βs ξ βs−1
(ξ)β−1 (η1)β
P
• ηs ( ηs ) =β
j
j=1
" #− 1
n β
P 1
• Therefore, βs = β & ηs = (ηj )β
j=1

• So the system follows the Weibull distribution only if all components


have the same shape parameter (β).

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 12 / 62


Mean time to failure (Approach)
 
Rt
R∞ R∞ − Zs (ξ)dξ
• MTTF = R(t)dt; Therefore, MTTFs = e 0  dt
0 0

• for n components connected in series & having constant failure rate


(but dierent for each components)

• Zs (ξ) = Zs (constant) = Z1 + Z2 + Z3 + . . . Zn
R∞ h
−1 −Zs t
i∞
• MTTFs = e−Zs t dt = Zs e
0 0

(−0+1) 1 1
• MTTFs =
Zs = Zs = j=1
P
Zj
n

• as ZS ↑ MTTF↓; Similarly may be done for other distributions.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 13 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-1

If the components A has reliability of 0.99 & components B has reliability


of 0.999. If SA10 denotes a system with 10 A type components in series.
What is the reliability of SA10 , SA100 , SB10 , SB100 , and SA50 B50 ?

✓ RSA10 (t) = 0.9044,

✓ RSA100 (t) = 0.3660

✓ RSB10 (t) = 0.990;

✓ RSB100 (t) = 0.9048

✓ RSA50 B50 (t) = 0.5755,

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 14 / 62


Solution (Question-1)

Question-1

If the components A has reliability of 0.99 & components B has reliability


of 0.999. If SA10 denotes a system with 10 A type components in series.
What is the reliability of SA10 , SA100 , SB10 , SB100 , and SA50 B50 ?

✓ RSA10 (t) = (0.99)10 = 0.9044,

✓ RSA100 (t) = (0.99)100 = 0.3660

✓ RSB10 (t) = 0.990;

✓ RSB100 (t) = (0.999)100 = 0.9048

✓ RSA50 B50 (t) = (0.99)50 .(0.999)50 = 0.6050 × 0.9512 = 0.5755,

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 15 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-2

If a component has 10 failure modes that are independent and have the
same probability of failure. If the reliability of the components is 0.95.
What is the probability of failure for dierent failure modes?

✓ Ans: 0.0051

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 16 / 62


Solution (Question-2)

Question-2

If a component has 10 failure modes that are independent and have the
same probability of failure. If the reliability of the components is 0.95.
What is the probability of failure for dierent failure modes?

✓ If the probability of failure is F, then reliability for each failure mode


is (1 - F)

✓ Rs (t) = 0.95 = (1 − F )10

✓ Therefore, (1 − F ) = 0.9949 =⇒ F = 0.0051

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 17 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-3

If 5 components have MTTF respective as 1000 hrs, 2000 hrs, 3000 hrs,
4000 hrs, and 5000 hrs. What is the MTTF of the system if all the
components are congured in series and their failures follow exponential
distribution?

✓ Ans: 437.9 hrs

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 18 / 62


Solution (Question-3)

Question-3

If 5 components have MTTF respective as 1000 hrs, 2000 hrs, 3000 hrs,
4000 hrs, and 5000 hrs. What is the MTTF of the system if all the
components are congured in series and their failures follow exponential
distribution?

1 1 1 1 1
✓ λ1 = 1000 , λ2 = 2000 , λ3 = 3000 , λ4 = 4000 , and λ5 = 5000

60+30+20+15+12
✓ Zs = λ1 + λ2 + λ3 + λ4 + λ5 = 60000

137
✓ Zs = 60000

✓ MTTFs = 437.9 hrs

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 19 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-4

A product has 5 components (each following Weibull distribution) with


shape parameter 1.5. Their scale parameters are 3600, 7200, 5850, 4780,
and 9300 hours. Find the MTTF, Reliability & median time, assuming
that components are congured in series.

✓ MTTF =1664.5 hours

t
)1.5
 
✓ R(t) = exp −( 1842.7

✓ tmed = 1443.2 hours

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 20 / 62


Solution (Question-4)

Question-4

A product has 5 components (each following Weibull distribution) with


shape parameter 1.5. Their scale parameters are 3600, 7200, 5850, 4780,
and 9300 hours. Find the MTTF, Reliability & median time, assuming
that components are congured in series.

" #− 1
5 β
P 1
✓ ηs = (ηj )β
j=1

h i− 1
1 1 1 1 1 1.5
✓ ηs = (3600)1.5
+ (7200)1.5
+ (5850)1.5
+ (4780)1.5
+ (9300)1.5
= 1842.7

   
✓ MTTF = η Γ 1 + β1 = 1842.7 Γ 1 + 13 = 1664.5 hours
2

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 21 / 62


Solution (Question-4) continued ...
h i
= exp −( ηt )β = exp −( 1842.7
t
)1.5
 
✓ R(t)

✓ for tmed , R(tmed ) = 0.5

1
✓ tmed = η[−ln(0.5)] 1.5

1
✓ tmed = 1842.7 × (0.69315) 1.5 = 1443.2 hours

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 22 / 62


Parallel Conguration
For critical system, where continuous performance of the system is of
extreme importance, multiple subsystems are used in place of single sub-
system.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 23 / 62


Parallel Conguration

• Even if one subsystem performs, entire system performs. Therefore,


for the system to perform

• P (Sys) = F (Sys) = P (E 1 ∩ E 2 ∩ · · · ∩ E n )

• P (E 1 ∩ E 2 ∩ · · · ∩ E n ) = P (E 1 ).P (E 2 |E 1 ). . . . P (E n |E n−1 ∩ E n−2 ∩


. . . ∩E1 )

• If all subsystems failure Ej are independent of each other, then

• P (Sys) = F (Sys) = F (E1 ).F (E2 ).F (E3 ) . . . F (En )

• R(Sys) = 1 − [(1 − R(E1 )).(1 − R(E2 )).(1 − R(E3 )) . . . (1 − R(En ))]

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 24 / 62


Parallel Conguration

n
Q
• Rsys (t) = 1 − [1 − Rj (t)]
j=1

• as Rj (t) is always less than 1, therefore, parallel system reliability


will be always higher than the most reliable component.

• Parallel system increase the system reliability signicantly.

• Rsys (t) ≥ max{R1 (t), R2 (t), R3 (t), . . . Rn (t)}

• For a parallel system having all components with constant fail-


ure/hazard rate (but dierent for each component)

n
(1 − e−Zj t )
Q
• Rsys (t) = 1 −
j=1

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 25 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-5

What is the MTTF for 2 components in parallel, if their individual


1 1
MTTFs are
Z1 & Z2 and these components have constant failure rate?

1 1 1
✓ Ans: =
Z1 + Z2 − (Z1 +Z2 )

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 26 / 62


Solution (Question-5)

Question-5

What is the MTTF for 2 components in parallel, if their individual


1 1
MTTFs are
Z1 & Z2 and these components have constant failure rate?

2
(1 − e−Zj t )
Q
✓ Rsys (t) = 1 −
j=1

✓ Rsys (t) = 1 − {(1 − e−Z1 t ).(1 − e−Z2 t )}

✓ Rsys (t) = 1 − {1 − e−Z1 t − e−Z2 t + e−(Z1 +Z2 )t }

✓ Rsys (t) = e−Z1 t + e−Z2 t − e−(Z1 +Z2 )t

R∞ 1 1 1
✓ MTTFs = Rs (t) = Z1 + Z2 − (Z1 +Z2 )
0

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 27 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-6

A supplier produces a components at a cost of | 300. The components


has reliability of 0.25. The end user is ready to pay | 5,000 for a system
performing the functions of the components only if it has 95% reliable
(Rsys (t) = 0.95 or more). What is the maximum prot earned by the
supplier and the system reliability?

✓ Ans: 11

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 28 / 62


Solution (Question-6)

Question-6

A supplier produces a components at a cost of | 300. The components


has reliability of 0.25. The end user is ready to pay | 5,000 for a system
performing the functions of the components only if it has 95% reliable
(Rsys (t) = 0.95 or more). What is the maximum prot earned by the
supplier and the system reliability?

✓ By trial and error if we congure 10 components in parallel


n
[1 − Rj (t)] = 1 − (0.75)10 = 0.943
Q
✓ Rsys (t) = 1−
j=1

✓ for 11 components in parallel, Rsys (t) = 1 − (0.75)11 = 0.9577


✓ Therefore, prot = 5000 - 11.(300) = 1700

ln(0.05)
✓ Alternative method n= ln(0.75) = 10.41 So, n > 10.41 ∴ n = 11

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 29 / 62


k out of n redundancy

• For the system to work at least k out of n subsystems should work.

• If p is the overall survival probability (success) then probability that


exactly x out of n system will survive (achieve success)

n
px (1 − p)n−x

• b(x, n, p) = x

• Therefore, Reliability of the system (probability that at least k out


n
px (1 p)n−x
P
of n subsystems would work): R(k) = −
x=k

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 30 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-7

An aeroplane that is used to transport VVIPs will y if at least 2 out


of 4 engines work, probability of an engine working is 0.75. What is the
reliability of the aeroplane?

✓ Ans: b(2, 4, 0.75) + b(3, 4, 0.75) + b(4, 4, 0.75)

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 31 / 62


Series Parallel

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 32 / 62


Parallel Series

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 33 / 62


Low Level Vs High Level Redundancy

• Rlow ≥ Rhigh

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 34 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-8

Two pieces of three components (with reliabilities of 0.8, 0.85, 0.9) are
congured in low level and high level redundancy.

i What are the values of Rlow and Rhigh ?


ii Also prove that Rlow ≥ Rhigh .

✓ Ans: 0.849

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 35 / 62


Solution (Question-8)

Question-8

Two pieces of three components (with reliabilities of 0.8, 0.85, 0.9) are
congured in low level and high level redundancy.

i What are the values of Rlow and Rhigh ?


ii Also prove that Rlow ≥ Rhigh .

✓ Rlow = (1 − (1 − 0.8)2 ) × (1 − (1 − 0.85)2 ) × (1 − (1 − 0.9)2 ) = 0.929.

✓ Rhigh = 1 − (1 − (0.8 × 0.85 × 0.9))2 = 0.849.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 36 / 62


Mixed Systems

• Depending on the criticality of the system, dierent portions of the


systems (subsystems) may be in series/parallel conguration. The
system may be broken into individual parallel/series conguration
& overall system reliability may be calculated.

Question-9

✓ Ans: 0.9016
Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 37 / 62
Solution (Question-9)

✓ Rs = R3 × R4
✓ R1 = 1 − (1 − 0.8)2 = 0.96
✓ R2 = R1 × Rc = 0.864
✓ R3 = 1 − (1 − 0.7)(1 − 0.864) = 0.9592
✓ R4 = 1 − (1 − 0.8)(1 − 0.7) = 0.94
✓ Rs = R3 × R4 = 0.9592 × 0.94 = 0.9016
Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 38 / 62
Common failure mode

• Many subsystems may have a common mode of failure. For example


these subsystems may share common source of electrical supply and
when electrical supply fails, all components fail. So far a common
mode failure for a n components redundant system will be shown as
following:

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 39 / 62


Common failure mode continued ...

• Rs = [1 − {(1 − R1 )(1 − R2 )(1 − R3 ) . . . (1 − Rn )}] × R′


n
(1 − Ri )] × R′
Q
• Rs = [1 −
i=1

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 40 / 62


Complex conguration

• Complex conguration may not be broken into subsystems of par-


allel /series networks. Two methods may be used to analyze &
quantify the reliability of the system.

• Successful path/enumeration method:-

• enumerate all possible combinations of success & failure of each com-


ponent such that system works. (Consider an electric network/uid
ow system with nodes as valves/switches).

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 41 / 62


Complex conguration
• Successful paths

• (i) A C (ii) A E C (iii) B D (iv) B E D (v) A E D (vi) B E C

• It may be seen than (AEC & AC ) & (BED & BD) are overlapping.
It does not matter whether E works, as long as A & C works.

• Actually AC (represents probability of A and C working simultane-


ously) may be thought as AC = ACE + ACE = AC(E + E)

• Therefore, AC already contains the AEC case as (E + E) = 1.

• Therefore, redundant cases (AEC & BED) are left out.

• Remaining successful paths are (i) A C (ii) B D (iii) A E D (iv) B


E C

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 42 / 62


Complex conguration
• P (S) = P [{AC ∪ BD} ∪ {AED ∪ BEC}]

• P (A) = RA , P (C) = RC , & so on

• P (X ∪ Y ) = P (X) + P (Y ) − P (X ∩ Y )

• Rs = (RA RC + RB RD − RA RB RC RD ) ∪ (RA RE RD + RB RE RC −
RA RB RC RD RE )

• Rs = RA RC + RB RD − RA RB RC RD + RA RE RD + RB RE RC −
RA RB RC RD RE −[RA RC RE RD +RA RB RE RD −RA RB RC RD RE +
RA RB RC RE +RB RC RD RE −RA RB RC RD RE −2RA RB RC RD RE +
RA RB RC RD RE ]

• Rs = RA RC + RB RD + RA RE RD + RB RE RC − RA RC RD RE −
RA RB RD RE − RA RB RC RE − RB RC RD RE − RA RB RC RD +
2RA RB RC RD RE

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 43 / 62


Complex conguration

• Alternatively, If one nds dicult to search all successful paths,


he/she may list all paths such that

• A = success and A= failure

• 5
There will be total 32 path (2 ) and he/she may nd all successful
paths. Such of all successful path will came same.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 44 / 62


Complex conguration: Decomposition Method
From total probability theorem
i
P
• P (A) = P (A|Ej ) × P (Ej ) (for 1 ≤ i ≤ ∞)
j=1

• In the above denition Ej are disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.

• If S= System is working; K and K are two disjoint events repre-


senting subsystem K is working and not working respectively.

• From law of total probability: P (S) = P (K) × P (S|K) + P (K) ×


P (S|K)

• The chosen component K is called Keystone element.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 45 / 62


Complex conguration: Decomposition Method

• For the current problem: The component `E' is the keystone element.

• P (S|E) should be representated as following:

• P (S|E) may also be representated as following:

• P (S|E) = [1 − (1 − RA ).(1 − RB )].[1 − (1 − RC ).(1 − RD )]

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 46 / 62


Complex conguration: Decomposition Method

• P (S|E) may be representated as following:

• P (S|E) = [1 − (1 − RA RC )(1 − RB RD )]

• From law of total probability: P (S) = P (E) × P (S|E) + P (E) ×


P (S|E)

• P (S/E) = [1 − (1 − RA ).(1 − RB )].[1 − (1 − RC ).(1 − RD )]RE + [1 −


(1 − RA RC )(1 − RB RD )](1 − RE )

• Home exercise:- To obtain weather this expression is same as ob-


tained from enumeration method.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 47 / 62


Practice Problems

Question-10

Determine the reliability of the following system assuming that failure or


non-failure of one component does not change the reliability of the other
components?

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 48 / 62


Solution: Decomposition Method

✓ A and F cannot fail.

✓ A and F are in series with combination X.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 49 / 62


Solution: Decomposition Method

✓ P (S) = P (A).P (X).P (F )

✓ Let C be a keystone element.

✓ P (X) = P (X|C).P (C) + P (X|C).P (C)

✓ P (X|C) should like following

✓ P (X|C) = [1 − {(1 − 1) × (1 − ....)}] = 1

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 50 / 62


Solution: Decomposition Method

✓ P (X|C) should like following

✓ Successful paths method for P (X|C)

✓ Successful paths BE , BD, D. The paths BD, D are overlapping.

✓ Non overlapping successful paths: BE , D.

✓ Therefore, P (X|C) = [1 − (1 − P (D)).(1 − P (B).P (E))]

✓ P (X|C) = P (D) + P (B).P (E) − P (B).P (D).P (E)

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 51 / 62


Solution: Decomposition Method

✓ Decomposition method for P (X|C) = P (Y ) (taking D as key stone)

✓ P (Y ) = P (Y |D).P (D) + P (Y |D).P (D)

✓ P (Y |D) = 1 (same logic as earlier) & P (Y |D) = P (B).P (E)

✓ P (Y ) = 1.P (D) + P (B).P (E).P (D) = P (D) + P (B).P (E).(1 −


P (D))

✓ Therefore, P (X|C) = P (Y ) = P (D)+P (B).P (E)−P (B).P (D).P (E)

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 52 / 62


Solution: Decomposition Method

✓ P (X) = P (X|C).P (C) + P (X|C).P (C)

✓ P (X) = 1.P (C) + [P (D) + P (B).P (E) − P (B).P (D).P (E)].P (C)

✓ P (X) = P (C)+[P (D)+P (B).P (E)−P (B).P (D).P (E)](1−P (C))

✓ P (S) = P (A).P (F ).[P (C) + (1 − P (C)).(P (D) + P (B).P (E) −


P (B).P (D).P (E))]

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 53 / 62


Reliability logic diagram/ Reliability block diagram

• RLD/RBD shows the logical connection between the components of


a complex system.

• The representation may be dierent than the physical connections.

• Elements in series

• Elements in parallel

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 54 / 62


continued ...

• Active redundancy (k out of n systems)

• Lorry is functional if at least three tyres on either side of the lorry


are working.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 55 / 62


continued ...

• Standby Redundancy : A scooter has two tyres and one stepney


tyre. The scooter is considered working when one of the tyre fails
and stepney is used.

• Load sharing

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 56 / 62


Contradiction to physical arrangement

• Physically in series, logically in parallel : Two one way valves are used
to avoid reverse ow. These valves are arranged in series physically
to avoid the reverse ow.

• Notice that both the valves should fail for the system to fail. There-
fore the logic diagram is

• The RLD shows that logically both the valves are in parallel.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 57 / 62


Contradiction to physical arrangement

• Physically in parallel, logically in series : A no. of capacitors are


used in parallel to provide the required value of capacitance. For
the successful operation, all the capacitors should be working.

• Ctotal = C1 + C2 + C3
• Reliability Logic Diagram

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 58 / 62


continued ...

• Example :− RLD for a missile system

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 59 / 62


Practice Problem

Question-11

Find the reliability of the following Reliability Logic Diagram.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 60 / 62


Solution (Question-11)

Question-11

Find the reliability of the following Reliability Logic Diagram.

✓ Rsystem = RA .RB .RC .RD ; where RA = R1 .R2

✓ RB = 1 − {(1 − R3 .R4 .R5 )(1 − R6 .R7 .R8 )(1 − R9 )}

✓ RC = R10 ; RD =3 C2 .R11
2 .(1 − R ) +3 C .R3
11 3 11

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 61 / 62


Thank You

It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop. 
Confucius

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 62 / 62

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