Lec 19 Onwards
Lec 19 Onwards
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• P (S) = P (E1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 ∩ E4 ∩ · · · · · · ∩ En )
P (E1 ∩E2 )
• P (E2 |E1 ) = P (E1 ) (Conditional Probability)
theref ore, P (E1 ∩ E2 ∩ . . . En ) = P (E1 ).P (E2 |E1 ).P (E3 |E2 ∩ E1 )
.P (E4 |E3 ∩ E2 ∩ E1 ) . . . P (En |En−1 ∩ . . . E1 )
n
Q
• The system reliability: Rs (t) = Ri (t), where Ri (t) is the proba-
i=1
bility that the ith failure mode doesn't occur before time t.
Pk R∞
• j=1 fdj ∆t = 0 fd (ξ)dξ = 1
Rt R∞
• R(t) = 1 − F (t) =⇒ R(t) = 1 − 0 fd (ξ)dξ = t fd (ξ)dξ
fd (t)
• Recall from earlier Z(t) =
R(t)
Pk R∞
• MTTF= j=1 fdj (j∆t)∆t → MTTF = 0 tfd (t)dt
R∞ R∞
• MTTF = 0
tfd (t)dt = 0
R(t)dt
Rt Rt Rt
n
Q − Z1 (ξ)dξ − Z2 (ξ)dξ − Zn (ξ)dξ
• Rs (t) = Ri (t) = e 0 e 0 ...e 0
i=1
Rt Rt P
n
− (Z1 (ξ)+Z2 (ξ)+...···+Zn (ξ))dξ − (Zj (ξ)dξ)
• Rs (t) = e 0 =e 0 j=1
Rt Rt P
n
− (Zs (ξ)dξ) − (Zj (ξ)dξ) n
P
• Rs (t) = e 0 =e 0 j=1
; =⇒ Zs (ξ) = Zj (ξ)
j=1
−( t )β
(
1−e η , t≥0
2 For Weibull distribution F (t) =
0, t<0
−( t )β
(
e η , t≥0
3 R(t) = 1 − F (t)=
1, t<0
fd (t)
4 on comparing with Z(t) = =⇒ Z(ξ) = ( βη )( ηξ )β−1
R(t)
• Zs (ξ) = Zs (constant) = Z1 + Z2 + Z3 + . . . Zn
R∞ h
−1 −Zs t
i∞
• MTTFs = e−Zs t dt = Zs e
0 0
(−0+1) 1 1
• MTTFs =
Zs = Zs = j=1
P
Zj
n
Question-1
Question-1
Question-2
If a component has 10 failure modes that are independent and have the
same probability of failure. If the reliability of the components is 0.95.
What is the probability of failure for dierent failure modes?
✓ Ans: 0.0051
Question-2
If a component has 10 failure modes that are independent and have the
same probability of failure. If the reliability of the components is 0.95.
What is the probability of failure for dierent failure modes?
Question-3
If 5 components have MTTF respective as 1000 hrs, 2000 hrs, 3000 hrs,
4000 hrs, and 5000 hrs. What is the MTTF of the system if all the
components are congured in series and their failures follow exponential
distribution?
Question-3
If 5 components have MTTF respective as 1000 hrs, 2000 hrs, 3000 hrs,
4000 hrs, and 5000 hrs. What is the MTTF of the system if all the
components are congured in series and their failures follow exponential
distribution?
1 1 1 1 1
✓ λ1 = 1000 , λ2 = 2000 , λ3 = 3000 , λ4 = 4000 , and λ5 = 5000
60+30+20+15+12
✓ Zs = λ1 + λ2 + λ3 + λ4 + λ5 = 60000
137
✓ Zs = 60000
Question-4
t
)1.5
✓ R(t) = exp −( 1842.7
Question-4
" #− 1
5 β
P 1
✓ ηs = (ηj )β
j=1
h i− 1
1 1 1 1 1 1.5
✓ ηs = (3600)1.5
+ (7200)1.5
+ (5850)1.5
+ (4780)1.5
+ (9300)1.5
= 1842.7
✓ MTTF = η Γ 1 + β1 = 1842.7 Γ 1 + 13 = 1664.5 hours
2
1
✓ tmed = η[−ln(0.5)] 1.5
1
✓ tmed = 1842.7 × (0.69315) 1.5 = 1443.2 hours
• P (Sys) = F (Sys) = P (E 1 ∩ E 2 ∩ · · · ∩ E n )
n
Q
• Rsys (t) = 1 − [1 − Rj (t)]
j=1
n
(1 − e−Zj t )
Q
• Rsys (t) = 1 −
j=1
Question-5
1 1 1
✓ Ans: =
Z1 + Z2 − (Z1 +Z2 )
Question-5
2
(1 − e−Zj t )
Q
✓ Rsys (t) = 1 −
j=1
R∞ 1 1 1
✓ MTTFs = Rs (t) = Z1 + Z2 − (Z1 +Z2 )
0
Question-6
✓ Ans: 11
Question-6
ln(0.05)
✓ Alternative method n= ln(0.75) = 10.41 So, n > 10.41 ∴ n = 11
n
px (1 − p)n−x
• b(x, n, p) = x
Question-7
• Rlow ≥ Rhigh
Question-8
Two pieces of three components (with reliabilities of 0.8, 0.85, 0.9) are
congured in low level and high level redundancy.
✓ Ans: 0.849
Question-8
Two pieces of three components (with reliabilities of 0.8, 0.85, 0.9) are
congured in low level and high level redundancy.
Question-9
✓ Ans: 0.9016
Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 37 / 62
Solution (Question-9)
✓ Rs = R3 × R4
✓ R1 = 1 − (1 − 0.8)2 = 0.96
✓ R2 = R1 × Rc = 0.864
✓ R3 = 1 − (1 − 0.7)(1 − 0.864) = 0.9592
✓ R4 = 1 − (1 − 0.8)(1 − 0.7) = 0.94
✓ Rs = R3 × R4 = 0.9592 × 0.94 = 0.9016
Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 29, 2024 38 / 62
Common failure mode
• It may be seen than (AEC & AC ) & (BED & BD) are overlapping.
It does not matter whether E works, as long as A & C works.
• P (X ∪ Y ) = P (X) + P (Y ) − P (X ∩ Y )
• Rs = (RA RC + RB RD − RA RB RC RD ) ∪ (RA RE RD + RB RE RC −
RA RB RC RD RE )
• Rs = RA RC + RB RD − RA RB RC RD + RA RE RD + RB RE RC −
RA RB RC RD RE −[RA RC RE RD +RA RB RE RD −RA RB RC RD RE +
RA RB RC RE +RB RC RD RE −RA RB RC RD RE −2RA RB RC RD RE +
RA RB RC RD RE ]
• Rs = RA RC + RB RD + RA RE RD + RB RE RC − RA RC RD RE −
RA RB RD RE − RA RB RC RE − RB RC RD RE − RA RB RC RD +
2RA RB RC RD RE
• 5
There will be total 32 path (2 ) and he/she may nd all successful
paths. Such of all successful path will came same.
• For the current problem: The component `E' is the keystone element.
• P (S|E) = [1 − (1 − RA RC )(1 − RB RD )]
Question-10
✓ P (X) = 1.P (C) + [P (D) + P (B).P (E) − P (B).P (D).P (E)].P (C)
• Elements in series
• Elements in parallel
• Load sharing
• Physically in series, logically in parallel : Two one way valves are used
to avoid reverse ow. These valves are arranged in series physically
to avoid the reverse ow.
• Notice that both the valves should fail for the system to fail. There-
fore the logic diagram is
• The RLD shows that logically both the valves are in parallel.
• Ctotal = C1 + C2 + C3
• Reliability Logic Diagram
Question-11
Question-11
✓ RC = R10 ; RD =3 C2 .R11
2 .(1 − R ) +3 C .R3
11 3 11
It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.
Confucius