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Probability distributions
The binomial distribution
Many types of experiment have only two outcomes, termed ‘success’ and ‘failure’, where success refers to the outcome of interest and failure refers to the other outcome. For example pass or fail, fire will hit or not hit yes or no, e.t.c.These types of experiment can be classed as binomial experiments but they must possess the following properties: i. there must be a fixed number, n ,of identical repetitions of the experiment, called trials; ii. the trials must be independent, i.e. the outcome of one trial does not Influence the outcome of another trial; iii. each trial can have only two outcomes, which will be called ‘success’( S ) and ‘failure’ ( F ); iv. the probability of success, P (S) = p, usually just written as p, is the same for each trial, thus the probability of failure is P( F ) = q = 1-p ; v. the experiment is interested in the number of successes, represented by the random variable X., out of n trials Binomial distribution Function When X denotes the number of success in n - trials of a binomial probability experiment, it is called a binomial random variable and its p.m.f is called the Binomial probability mass function .When the binomial r.v. X assumes a value x the binomial probability mass function is given by P( X = x ) = for x = 0 , 1 ,2 , 3, 4,……., n Derivation of Binomial distribution To drive a formula that gives the probability of successes in n trials for a binomial experiment the experiment has n- trials each of which may result in success (S ) or failure ( F ).the sample space has 2n possible sample points or outcomes . If this experiment is repeated n – times ( n – independent trials ) then we have following sequences S S S S S ……. .S F F F F …….. F
x – times n – x times Suppose there are n = number of trials Every Morning has two choices …. x = number success n – x = number of failure Continue your Sleep with Dreaming… p = probability of success OR Wake up and chase your Dreams q = 1 – p = probability of failure
Since P( S ) = p and P ( F ) = q p + q = 1 by multiplication law of probability for independent event we know (p p p p p …p ) (q q q q ….. q )
and therefore P( X = x ) = px q n-x x = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , …..n
This is the probability of a particular sequence also called Bernoulli trial and since there are all possible sequences and all these are mutually exclusive therefore the probability of ‘x’ successes in ‘n’- trials are P( X = x ) = x = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , …..n This called Binomial P.M.F in the form of formula
Examples 1.PASS / FAIL 2. GO / NO-GO 3. SUCCESS / FAILURE 3. IN / OUT 4. HOT / COLD 5. MALE / FEMALE 6. DEFECTIVE / NOT DEFECTIVE 7. RIGHT-HANDED / LEFT-HANDED 8. HIGH / LOW 9. HEADS / TAILS 10. Fire will hit or not on the target. 11. A true-false questions can be answered in only two ways, true or false 12. In a basketball game, a team either wins or loses
Q-1 The probability that a patient recover from a delicate heart is 0.90. What is the probability that exactly five of the next 7 will patients having this operation survive? *(0.124)
Q-2 A multiple choice test contains 25 questions each with four answers. Assume a student just guesses on each question. i. what is the probability that the student answers more than 20 questions correctly? ii. What is the probability the student answers less than 5 questions correctly?
Q-3 Let the chance that Ricky Ponting scores a fifty in one-day match is 0.75. Which is derived from the previous records? If he plays a series of 5 one day matches what is the probability that scores i. Exactly one fifty ii. Exactly two fifties iii. three fifties iv. at least 2 fifties *(0.98) iv Atmost 4 - fifties
Q-4 Find the probability of getting exactly 4 girls in 10 births. (Assume that male and female births are equally likely and that the birth of any child die not affects the probability of the gender of any other children.) *(0.25) Q-6 A lot of TV sets contains 5-percent of defective set what should be the number(n) of T.V. sets in a random sample so that the probability of finding at least one defective set in it , is greater than 0.75 ( n = 28 ) Q7 An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and in good health. According to the actuarial tables, the probability that a man of this particular age will be alive 30 years hence is 2/3. find the probability that in 30 years i. All men ii. At least 3 men iii. Only two men iv. at most one man will be alive
Q9 If 60% of the voters in a large district prefer candidate A, what is the probability that in a sample of 12 voters exactly 7 will prefer A? *(0.227)
Q 10 doctor knows 15% of all her patients are late for their appointments. Given five randomly selected patients, what is the approximate probability that exactly three of them are late for their appointments?
Q 11 Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability that each egg is broken is 0.35.Find the probability in a random box of eggs: there are 4 broken eggs Q 12 As shown in the accompanying diagram, a circular target with a radius of 9 inches has a bull's-eye that has a radius of 3 inches. If five arrows randomly hit the target, what is the probability that at least four hit the bull's-eye?
Q 13 At a certain intersection, the light for at airport traffic signal is red for 15 seconds, yellow for 5 seconds, and green for 30 seconds. Find the probability that out of the next eight airport traffic signal cars that arrive randomly at the light, exactly three will be stopped by a red light.
Q 14 An oil tanker is making a trip from Iraq’s offshore southern oil terminals to Europe. The value of the tanker and oil is $80 million. The probability distribution for damage (X) to the oil tanker is shown below: What is the expected damage pay out for an insurer?
X = loss to insurance $0 $10 $20 $50 $80
company (mil) P(X=x) 0.982 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001
Q 15 A sales representative for a tire manufacturer claims that the company’s steel-belted radials last at least 35,000 miles. A tire dealer decides to check that claim by testing eight of the tires. If 75 % or more of the eight tries he tests last at least 35,000 miles, he will purchase tires from the sales representative. If in fact, 90% of the steel belted radials produced by the manufacturer at least 35,000 miles, what is the probability that the tire dealer will purchase tires from the sales representative
Speaks 5 line to yourself every morning
1.I am the best 2. I can Do it 3. God is always with me 4. I am a winner 5. Today is my day
