A Construction Cost Estimation Framework Using DNN and Validation Unit
A Construction Cost Estimation Framework Using DNN and Validation Unit
To cite this article: Salman Saeidlou & Nikdokht Ghadiminia (2023): A construction cost
estimation framework using DNN and validation unit, Building Research & Information, DOI:
10.1080/09613218.2023.2196388
Introduction
quantitative assessment, and thus, the prediction by
Constraining factors like costs, schedules, and quality the proposed system is more accurate.
all work together to ensure a project is completed suc- There has been a growing body of literature employing
cessfully. The construction phase provides an opportu- both classical statistical techniques (Akintoye & Fitzger-
nity to inspect and enhance a project’s quality while ald, 2000; Chan & Park, 2005; Hitsanu, 2022) and
ensuring that the schedule and cost remain within machine learning (ML) models (Alshboul et al., 2022b;
the bounds of its contracts. The contractors and the Kim & Cha, 2022; Matel et al., 2022; Shoar et al., 2022).
stakeholders are very involved in these estimates (Mar- The state-of-the-art machine learning approach is deep
kiz & Jrade, 2022). When stakeholders and decision- neural network (DNN)-based algorithms. This paper
makers have a realistic idea of how much a project uses DNN to estimate construction costs. The DNNs
will cost before it even begins, they can make informed are capable of establishing relations among complex, het-
decisions about feasibility studies, bidding, and cash erogenous, and multidimensional features, and so the
flow management (Al-Nassafi, 2022). To the detriment proposed methodology generates better and more
of the project’s stakeholders and contractors, cost over- reliable estimations. Sometimes the data can be more cru-
runs are a typical result of an underestimated project cial than the process itself (Amoore, 2022). However,
budget (Banks-Grasedyck et al., 2022). Several developing and optimizing machine learning models
methods have been used in practice, and others have for construction cost estimation in data-specific scenarios
been proposed in the literature to accurately predict demonstrates promising results, which have been studied
construction costs to limit losses and satisfy project and presented in this paper.
profitability targets. Multiple construction variables impact the construc-
Costs can be estimated in a few different ways, but tion cost directly and indirectly. However, they demon-
the two most common are qualitative and quantitative strate irregular patterns among themselves when the
assessments. Qualitative methods relying on experts’ cost is considered the target variable and related to
opinions may be biased, resulting in erroneous esti- these influencing variables (Elhegazy et al., 2022). More-
mates (Strömbäck & Tärnell, 2022). The proposed over, these variables are further dependent on other
methodology estimates construction costs from indirect variables (Okonkwo et al., 2022). As a result,
the traditional simple summation of construction cost . Incorporate an estimation validator unit to address
variables is not enough to accurately estimate the cost. the credibility issue of practical uses of DNN in con-
The proposed framework overcomes this limitation. struction cost estimation.
The complex distribution pattern, multiple internal, . Analyze the limitation of the DNN-based construc-
external, and hidden dependencies, and their temporal tion cost estimator and the scope of mining opportu-
instability make construction cost estimation challen- nities from the limitations.
ging (Dang-Trinh et al., 2022). This challenge has
been beaten using the DNN-based construction cost
estimation framework presented in this paper. Usually,
Literature review
rule-based approaches are not enough for complex
relations between features and the target variable. The The calculation of building costs has always been a task
promising human-intelligence-like performance of that places a premium on the knowledge and insight of
deep learning (DL) technology is being used in this industry professionals (Elhag et al., 2005). That means
complicated field of studies, including: the medical ima- human intelligence with acquired experience can esti-
ging sector (Faruqui et al., 2021); stock market analysis mate construction costs. The DNN-based solution,
(Kumbure et al., 2022); targeted marketing (Sun et al., which exhibits human-like intelligence, is thus a good
2022); autonomous vehicles (Hui et al., 2022); virtual fit in the field explored in this paper. Not every organiz-
assistants (Liao et al., 2022); robotics (Nguyen et al., ation, especially small or newly established construction
2022); and in many other fields. Inspired by DL’s capa- firms, can afford to allocate a budget to keep experi-
bility in human intelligence replication, this paper enced consultants (Choudhry, 2016). Large organiz-
designs, studies, analyzes, and experiments, applying ations or companies may have the resources and
deep neural networks (DNN) in construction cost experience to compile their in-house construction cost
estimation. database. Apart from large construction firms, some
Despite the successful application of artificial neural individuals take construction responsibilities into their
networks (ANN) in construction cost estimation own hands, and those who aren’t construction industry
(Baduge et al., 2022), the coherence and relevancy of experts may rely on commercial vendors’ published
the recent literature are not leaning towards a standar- construction cost indexes (Zhang et al., 2017). Govern-
dized solution in this regard (Zabin et al., 2022). It is ment construction cost statistics also assist people in
a significant research gap in this sector, which has estimating construction costs. However, these data are
been observed and studied by the researcher of this not always up to date (K’akumu, 2007). An automatic
paper, and thus, the framework presented in this computerized system employed to estimate the con-
paper leads the way to standardize the methodology of struction cost, which can replace the necessity of using
applying machine-learning solutions to estimate con- a consultant or government statistics, benefits many
struction costs. This study proposes an innovative con- people. The research conducted in this paper is such
struction cost estimation framework using DNN to an endeavour.
bridge the gap. Another research gap is the applied vali- Like many different sectors, researchers in the con-
dation of the DNN-based cost estimator. It is a common struction sector have started using statistical and
practice in the deep learning domain to split the data set machine learning methods to improve the precision
into training, test, and validation sets and evaluate the and timeliness of cost estimates (Makridakis et al.,
validity of the network (Kahloot & Ekler, 2021). How- 2018). Statistical and machine learning methods
ever, construction cost estimation is an influential improve the decision-making process by transforming
business factor that directly impacts the stakeholders’ data from the past into decision-support systems (Lee
benefits (Doloi, 2013); thus, algorithmic and external et al., 2016). This can overcome the lack of data for pre-
validation is essential in order to rely on cost estimation cise estimation at the beginning of a project. Based on
by DNN practically. However, external validation is a this observation, the proposed framework focused on
significant research gap in the application of DNN in developing innovative network architecture to estimate
construction cost estimation. This research has evolved, construction costs precisely and validate the estimation
encompassing these two research gaps, and contributes with an external validation unit.
by carrying out the following: A study by Al-Momani (1996) builds an LR model
for building cost prediction with three project features
. Design, implement, analyze, and evaluate a DNN- as explanatory variables. This research gives an idea of
based framework to estimate construction costs the variables to consider for construction cost esti-
using direct variables. mation in the proposed methodology. The research
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 3
focused on the effect of public procurement law on One of the reasons behind choosing the machine
construction costs in Turkey and applied decision learning (ML) method for the framework tested and
tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and artifi- developed in this paper is that it captures complicated
cial neural networks (ANN). Information related to correlations between input and output without requir-
projects, such as start and end dates, geographic ing the specification of mathematical representations.
scope, and discount percentages, were used as inputs A systematic review by Tayefeh Hashemi et al. (2020)
(Erdis, 2013). Although this experiment aims to find discusses the common approaches to construction cost
the deviation from the estimated time and cost, it estimation using machine learning techniques, includ-
lays down an essential theoretical background to ing the support vector machine (SVM), the dynamic
adopt in developing the construction cost estimator tree (DT), and the random forest (RF). The SVM then
framework. separates the data along a hyperplane by nonlinearly
To better anticipate the costs of building in China, mapping the raw data into a high-dimensional space.
Shutian et al. (2017) created a fusion method that com- Using a recursive partitioning procedure, the DT can
bines the Kalman filter with least-squares support vector find a good tree structure inside a data set without
machines (LS-SVM) and linear regression (LR). The requiring expert knowledge (Tayefeh Hashemi et al.,
output of the experiment is promising. However, the 2020). However, the deep neural network approaches
variable distribution of the construction cost is non-lin- perform better than any other machine learning
ear. This raises the question of using linear approaches. approach in construction cost estimation (Wang et al.,
In the proposed methodology, the DNN has been used 2022). Comparing the effectiveness, robustness, opti-
to address this issue. Sub-gradient SVM has been used mizable nature, and capability to map between target
to evaluate the network’s performance along with LR. and complexly distributed dependent variables, the
There are many variables to estimate the construction DNN has been used as the cost estimator in the pro-
cost. Using those which are most influential in training, posed framework (Yanik et al., 2022).
a DNN is essential. The construction area, application
type, city hierarchy, and other project characteristics
Methodology
were used as inputs. The unit cost of concrete, the
unit cost of formwork, the type of structural assembly, The framework consists of a data set manager, a deep
and the amount of superimposed load were all taken neural network (DNN), and an estimation validator.
into account by Chakraborty et al. (2020) when estimat- These significant components have sub-components.
ing the total construction cost. A filtered version of these The overview of the proposed framework is illustrated
variables has been used in the proposed framework. in Figure 1.
An attempt to increase the precision of BIM labour
cost predictions was made by Huang and Hsieh (2020)
Data set preparation
by coupling random forest and linear regression. The
apartment complex’s total square footage and the total The proposed framework uses a specific data-set vari-
number of stories are part of the input variables. How- able pattern. It is essential to follow this pattern to get
ever, this approach is specific to a particular scenario. an optimized and accurate output from it. Table 1 lists
The proposed framework is not limited to a particular and explains the variables. These variables are common
problem but instead has a more straightforward and in every building construction. Depending on the
lightweight network architecture. It aims to develop a requirements, construction types, and specifications,
uniform platform for estimating construction costs. additional variables come into consideration. However,
An innovative construction cost estimation method the variables used in this paper are the fundamental
based on statistical analysis, particularly regression features.
analysis, was proposed by Li et al. (2022), and it studied The core variables related to constructions are con-
the norm. A similar approach was published by Lowe sidered in this paper. Other variables influence the
et al. (2006) but with much more simplicity, clarity, cost (Bernagros et al., 2021). However, these have
and familiarity with the applied algorithms. Although been ignored for the simplicity of the framework.
these two methods are good construction cost estima-
tors, they require a linear data set that maintains math-
Data processing
ematical linearity. Compared to these approaches, the
performance of the proposed methodology is invariant The ranges of the variables are not uniform, but it is
to data set linearity because of the use of a DNN. Other- essential to transform them into a uniform scale. In
wise, the performance tends to degrade. this experiment, the mean normalization has been
4 S. SAEIDLOU AND N. GHADIMINIA
Table 1. Variable list, description, and pattern. testing, and validation. The literature review on the
Variable Role Description state-of-art machine learning approaches suggests that
O Cost This is the final estimated cost. the training and test ratio of 70:30 is a standard data
x1 Building type Different types of buildings, categorical splitting ratio (Presnell & Alper, 2019). Thus, the same
type. Here 0 = residential, 1 = 0
commercial ratio has been used in this paper.
x2 Number of rooms Numerical number of floors, including the
per floor ground floor
x3 Number of special Three facilities have been considered in
facilities this framework Categorial type. Here, 0 Subset of the data set
= no, 1 = lift, 2 = garage, 3 = both 1 and
2 A subset of the data set after processing using Equation
x4 Total floor area Total area, including all floors; the (1) is listed in Table 2. Except for building type and the
numerical value measured in square
metres number of special facilities, the rest of the features are
x5 Number of levels Number of floors, including the ground scaled between 0 and 1. The x1 and x3 are encoded
floor
x6 Floor area per level Area of individual floors using the one hot encoding method. The rest of the
x7 Construction Average construction worker cost of a values are directly used during the training and testing
worker cost project
period.
The subset of the data set presented in Table 2 has
been selected randomly, which gives a general idea
used to scale the variable values between 0 and 1.
about the overall characteristics of the complete data set.
Equation (1) has been used for mean normalization
(Saranya & Manikandan, 2013).
xi − m Deep neural network (DNN) architecture
oi = (1)
max(xi ) − min(x) This experiment uses a deep neural network with four
Here, oi is the normalized value of the ith feature. The m hidden layers to estimate the construction cost. A fully
is the simple mean. The mean of the categorical values connected network architecture with 28 hidden nodes
has not been used. Equation (1) applies to numerical has been used (Bird et al., 2019). It is illustrated in
variables only. Figure 2.
The network has seven input nodes, one output node,
and 28 nodes in each hidden layer. The output vector of
Data cleaning and splitting
Irrelevant observations, structural errors, outliers, and Table 2. Subset of the data set.
missing values severely impact the overall performance x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 O
of machine-learning models. The proposed framework 1 0.50 0 0.90 0.75 0.81 0.65 0.72
1 0.78 0 0.91 0.79 0.85 0.77 0.85
requires a clean data set. The experimenting data set 0 0.85 0 0.85 0.64 0.49 0.92 0.89
has been manually cleaned in this research. The pro- 1 0.90 3 0.81 0.81 0.55 0.75 0.91
0 0.80 1 0.79 0.67 0.61 0.75 0.90
posed framework splits the data set into training,
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 5
the network is defined using Equation (2). output nodes, respectively, in this range. The adaptive
moment estimation (ADAM) optimizer (Kingma &
K l = sl (Bl + W l K l−1 ) (2) Ba, 2014) has been used in this paper to optimize
Here the K l is the output vector; Bl is the bias vector; W l the learning process.
is the weight matrix; and sl is the activation function.
The tanh, ReLU (Agarap, 2018), and sigmoid functions Estimation validation unit
have been used as the activation functions of the input
layer, hidden layers, and output layers, respectively, An innovative estimation validation unit introduces
and are defined by Equations (3), (4), and (5) sequen- uniqueness to the proposed framework. This unit has
tially. been created using four different machine-learning
algorithms to validate the estimation done by the
ex − e−x
tanh(x) = (3) DNN. These two machine learning models are linear
ex + e−x regression (LR) (Weisberg, 2005) and support vector
k(x) = max (0, x) (4) machines (SVM) (Hearst et al., 1998) with a sub-gradi-
ent descent algorithm (Shalev-Shwartz et al., 2011).
k(x) = x (5) The LR model consists of eight variables (xn ) with
The bias for active neurones is set to 1, and dropped- eight different learning parameters. The LR mode is
off neurones are 0 (Mianjy et al., 2018). defined by Equation (7). It discovers the linear relation
between the price estimation and construction cost esti-
mating variables.
y = u0 x0 + u1 x1 + . . . + u7 x7 + 1 (7)
Training and optimization
Here, the y is the estimated price; u0 = 1; x0 = 1; u1 to
The proposed framework has experimented with the
u7 are the learning parameters of x1 to x7 respectively.
Residential Building Data Set publicly available at
The 1 is the error term.
the Machine Learning Repository of the University
The variable distribution for building cost estimation
of California, Irvine (UCI) (Asuncion & Newman,
demonstrates a non-linear pattern in different segments.
2007). The initial weight plays a role in learning
To address this issue, the SVM with a sub-gradient des-
optimization, which has been done using the normal-
cent algorithm has been used in this experiment to vali-
ized Xavier weight initialization (Datta, 2020) defined
date the estimation by the DNN. The soft-margin-based
by Equation (6).
SVM (Hu et al., 2010) used in this paper tries to mini-
6 6 mize the expression of Equation (8).
W i = PD − , (6)
n+m n+m 1 n
f (W, b) = max (0, 1 − yi (W xi − b))
T
distribution does not follow a specific scale. Equation Table 3. Performance on UCI data set.
(8) does not scale with n in iterations, which makes it Model R2 RMSE MAE MAPE
a good fit for construction cost estimation. DNN 0.96 27.94 17.22 11.60%
LR 0.82 34.10 25.09 16.99%
SVM 0.91 31.44 21.38 13.92%
linear. As a result, the R2 for the LR is lower than for four papers have been compared with the proposed fra-
the DNN and SVM. However, the average of R2 is mework and listed in Table 6.
94.67%, which indicates models properly fit the data The accuracy of the proposed construction cost esti-
distribution. The mean average percentage error mation framework using DNN and the validation unit is
(MAPE) has been illustrated for the three experiment- 94.67% which is higher than three of the comparison
ing data sets in Figure 4. papers. However, the result obtained by Hashemi et al.
The MAPE is a little higher for the LR, as expected. (2019) is 0.04% higher than the proposed framework,
However, the DNN and SVM exhibit similar MAPE which is a marginal difference. The methodology of Alex
values. The average MAPE for the DNN is 11.65%, et al. (2010) is much more complex than the proposed fra-
which demonstrates the correctness of the cost estimation. mework. The proposed method still holds the superiority
The average MAPE of the SVM is 13.56%. There is only a in terms of architectural simplicity, even if the accuracy is
1.91% difference between the MAPE of the DNN and the 0.04% lower than the work of Alex et al. (2010).
SVM. It indicates the estimation from the DNN is valid.
The experimental values show a similar nature to the
Limitations and future scope
MAE values, which have been illustrated in Figure 5.
The performance evaluation of the proposed frame- Any computerized system has limitations. The proposed
work highlights the validity of the estimation of the framework is not an exception. There are four main
DNN. The comparison of the three ML models with limitations of this framework, which have been dis-
three different data sets leaves no scope for questioning cussed here.
the correct estimation made by the framework.
Variable limit
Performance comparison The first limitation of the proposed framework is the
The performance of the proposed system has been com- variable limit. It has been designed with the most com-
pared to four similar methodologies. Each of these mon and influential seven building construction cost
approaches used different data sets and features. estimators. It cannot handle more than seven variables.
Because of the similarity in the methodology, these One of the key contributions of this research is obtain-
ing accurate results with a limited number of variables.
Moreover, a limited internal variation of the variables
has been used in the proposed methodology. A modern
residential building may have multiple unique features.
These features vary from building to building. As a
result, it is not possible to incorporate every unique fea-
ture a building may possess (Juszczyk, 2017). This is a
major limitation of the proposed framework and any
framework. At the same time, there are no hard and
fast rules limiting the number of construction variables,
which imposes another challenge that this paper has not
Figure 4. Mean average percentage error (MAPE) comparison. solved. It is another drawback related to the variable
limit. However, these variable limitations pave the way
for more research on this topic: to find the optimum
number of variables and systematically handle the
unique features of buildings. These opportunities will
be explored in subsequent papers.
Data set structure heterogeneity the economic variables are not ignored either. It has
been observed that the framework becomes complicated
The heterogeneity of the data set structure imposes a
when both economic and non-economic variables are
challenge on an informed approach to estimating build-
considered. For the sake of simplicity, the economic
ing costs through a machine learning algorithm (Scheres,
variables are ignored in this study. However, research
2016). The methodology followed by the researchers
is ongoing by the author of this paper to develop
while developing the data sets varies based on the per-
another framework to estimate the impact of economic
spective, core focus, building type, time, location, and
variables on construction costs. In the future, these two
many other factors. Different data sets come up with
frameworks will be merged to prepare a complete con-
different structures depending on the point of interest,
struction cost estimation, including economic and non-
the emphasis of certain factors, or the goal of the data col-
economic variables.
lection project. As a result, applying a uniform frame-
A study conducted by Rafiei and Adeli (2018)
work becomes challenging. Designing, implementing,
included both economic and non-economic variables
and training a DNN based on a particular data set leaves
in construction cost estimation using machine learning.
no scope for complexity. However, comparing the
The proposed methodology loses its superiority to the
trained network with similar approaches becomes
research published by Rafiei and Adeli (2018) from
difficult because there is no available similar enough pub-
the variable diversity perspective. Green building con-
lished research on the same data set structure. This is a
struction is a recent and eco-friendly trend that is turn-
major limitation of the proposed framework for any suit-
ing into modern construction standards. The proposed
able methods. The data set deformation method, where
research does not take the green building construction
any construction cost-related data sets are dissolved
parameters into consideration; however, this was done
into the stream of fragmented data to reconstruct it
by Alshboul et al. (2022b). Considering the heavy con-
into a uniform structure by maintaining a standard pro-
struction equipment as one of the features, which was
portional range of values, is a potential solution to this
done by Alshboul et al. (2022a), would make the pro-
problem. However, the level of complexity of such an
posed methodology more reliable. However, these limit-
approach requires a separate study, which leaves scope
ations have not been overcome in the current state of
for another field of research in this domain.
the research.
generalization addressed in this paper is significant in Architectural Management, 29(10), 4153–4176. https://
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imposes multiple challenges in developing an all-in- Alshboul, O., Shehadeh, A., Almasabha, G., & Almuflih, A. S.
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