Aixtron - Phase I - Update - L2
Aixtron - Phase I - Update - L2
Aixtron SE
Phase 1
March 2023
2
Bullet-proof asset condition
High-tech offering with asset-light business model. Top market position across verticals.
Selected key themes
KPI YES/NO Comments / Facts
USP YES ▪ Aixtron’s expertise in MOCVD systems gives it a technological edge over peers and allows it to dominate in high-margin markets
▪ Modular systems enable flexibility in terms of customer requests and production. As 90% of production is outsourced to suppliers,
cyclical fluctuations in orders can be offset
Barriers to entry YES ▪ Highly complex systems, the production processes and very high quality requirements raise significant barriers to entry
▪ An oligopoly for MOCVD systems already emerged in a very early market phase
LUCO/ Cost flexibility YES ▪ Modular systems and 90% outsourcing allow for significant flexibility
Exposure megatrends YES ▪ Shift from silicon to compound semiconductors stands to benefit Aixtron as a major supplier of the deposition equipment necessary to
make these materials
▪ Growing end-markets in power electronics (esp. fast-charging), Mini LEDs/ Micro LEDs and return to growth in 3D sensing
Why is the product special?
% of equipment
End-market Product / technology USP Customers
revenue1
Power electronics ▪ Production of gallium nitrite (GaN) semiconductor ▪ Semiconductor
devices for more powerful power supplies in consumer manufacturers wafer
electronics, data centres and movile communications ▪ Expertise in planetary MOCVD manufacturers
42% systems gives it an edge over
infrastructure
▪ Silicon carbide devices used in, e.g. electric vehicle peers that mostly rely on
charging infrastructure and inverters for renewables showerhead technology
Optoelectronics ▪ Optoelectronics tools and systems mostly used by ▪ Products offer higher productivity ▪ Telecom/ Datacom
customers to manufacture lasers for optical data and profitability to customers ▪ VCSEL/ EEL producers
transmission and 3D sensing technology
28% ▪ High R&D spending has allowed it
▪ Other applications include facial recognition, robotic
environment sensing, autonomous vehicles and other to secure its technological and
applications requiring context recognition innovation leadership in the
LED ▪ Systems for deposition of complex semiconductors market and high quality ▪ Display manufacturers
used by customers to manufacture pixels in display perception from customers
applications. ▪ Features that control
▪ Deployed productively in large-area-displays and in the homogeneity and wafer
27% future Micro LEDs. Other specialty applications incl. temperature which result in
ROY LEDs used in auto lighting. UV LEDs for water higher yields
disinfection
Aixtron End-function
Customer Sales (% of End-market CAGR’ Growth
Application equipment Customers Overview / recent developments
end-product total)1 21-263 likelihood
(% of sales)1 for:
Value of current and potential SAM per end-product type ($ bn) GaN starting to make economic sense for a diverse set of applications
GaN SiC
5
Explaining GaN/SiC opportunity (2/2)
The range of GaN/SiC applications just started to penetrate most markets. Cost effectiveness pushing penetration
▪ The penetration of GaN includes the mid-range segment of Power, up to 100kW, which includes an enormous and very diverse set of use cases,
including OLED TVs, home appliances, Led Lightning, Motor Drivers and Data Centers.
▪ SiC operates at higher ranges of Power, thought for electric intensive applications such as Renewable Energy, EV parts and infra and other industrial
▪ Data Centers
▪ Notebook / Phone chargers
▪ Communication
infrastructure
▪ Solar energy storage systems
▪ Battery tester systems
▪ HVAC appliances
▪ Automotive Power systems
▪ Renewable energy
▪ EVs infrastructure
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Preliminary financials
Multi-year cycle growth driven by new technologies adoption in semis. Solid track-record. Prudent net cash position.
Aixtron (EURm)
CAGR
Summary Financial & CF data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 '15-22 '18-22 '23-26 Market
P&L ($m)
Revenues 228 183 194 198 196 230 269 260 269 429 463 594 647 722 829 13% 15% 12%
growth
Normalised revenues 269 429 493 564 647 722 829 14% 16% 14% expected at
Gross profit 0 (7) 40 50 56 74 118 109 108 181 195 267 297 332 384 22% 14% 13%
Adj. EBIT (124) (109) (59) (30) (26) (19) 42 27 22 89 97 154 181 206 244 n.m. 23% 17%
c.18%
Op. income (132) (96) (58) (27) (21) 5 42 39 35 99 105 164 192 218 257 n.m. 26% 16%
Net Income* (145) (101) (63) (29) (24) 6 46 33 35 96 101 151 177 200 237 n.m. 22% 16%
EPS (1.4) (1.0) (0.6) (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.35 1.57 1.78 2.11 n.m. 22% 16%
Cash Earnings (recurrent)** (129) (73) (46) (19) (11) 24 56 43 44 105 109 163 192 219 260 n.m. 18% 17%
Cash Earnings (non-recurrent) (140) (115) (64) (34) (29) (18) 46 21 22 86 92 141 166 188 224 n.m. 19% 17%
FCF adj. (62) (2) (47) (59) (43) 84 4 35 14 49 7 64 112 130 150 n.m. 15% 32%
* Includes net profit + (amortization + write-downs - extr. items)
€30m sales delayed in Q4 2022 passed on to 2023 Median
Financial Ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 '15-22 '18-22 '23-26
Sales growth (20%) 6% 2% (1%) 17% 17% (3%) 4% 59% 8% 28% 9% 12% 15% 8% 8% 13%
Normlised sales growth 4% 59% 15% 14% 15% 12% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Gross Margin 0% (4%) 20% 25% 29% 32% 44% 42% 40% 42% 42% 45% 46% 46% 46% 42% 42% 46%
EBIT Margin (54%) (60%) (30%) (15%) (13%) (8%) 16% 11% 8% 21% 21% 26% 28% 29% 30% 11% 16% 28%
Net Income (Adj) Margin (64%) (55%) (32%) (15%) (12%) 3% 17% 13% 13% 22% 22% 27% 27% 28% 29% 13% 17% 28%
EPS adj. growth n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 605% (28%) 6% 174% 5% 51% 17% 13% 18% 6% 6% 18%
Net Debt/ EBITDA 0.9x 2.1x 2.8x 5.8x 9.3x 191.9x (4.5x) (7.2x) (5.9x) (1.5x) (1.0x) (0.7x) (0.9x) (1.1x) (1.2x) (1.5x) (4.5x) (1.0x)
ROCE (EBIT adj./ CE) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 25% 15% 11% 34% 30% 37% 38% 37% 38% 25% 25% 38%
ROCE (ex-GW Intang.) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 42% 26% 18% 47% 38% 45% 45% 43% 43% 38% 38% 44%
ROA n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 1% 9% 6% 6% 13% 11% 15% 16% 16% 16% 7% 9% 16%
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Risk reward
c. 17% IRR under prudent exit assumptions (22x P/E vs. 30x industry avg.). Main risk is end market downturn/ cyclicality
Market & BS data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Nº of shares 101 103 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112
Share price 8.9 10.5 9.4 4.1 3.1 11.6 8.4 8.5 14.3 17.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Market Cap 901 1,083 1,050 461 346 1,293 940 954 1,596 2,003 2,809 2,809 2,809 2,809 2,809
Net debt (cash) (100) (167) (116) (116) (120) (226) (236) (270) (187) (150) (105) (124) (181) (249) (325)
Enterprise Value 801 916 934 345 226 1,067 705 685 1,410 1,854 2,704 2,685 2,628 2,560 2,484
Trading multiples 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Median
Trading multiples '15-22 '18-22 '23-26
EV/Sales 3.5x 5.0x 4.8x 1.7x 1.2x 4.6x 2.6x 2.6x 5.2x 4.3x 5.8x 4.5x 4.1x 3.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.3x 3.8x
EV/EBITDA n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 13.5x 18.3x 44.4x 18.7x 25.5x 16.2x 13.4x 11.4x 9.3x 18.7x 18.7x 12.4x
EV/EBITA n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 16.6x 25.0x 63.4x 20.8x 27.8x 17.4x 14.5x 12.4x 10.2x 25.0x 25.0x 13.5x
EV/FCF n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 12.7x 163.8x 19.6x 100.9x 37.9x 361.7x 41.7x 23.5x 19.7x 16.6x 69.4x 100.9x 21.6x
PER Adjusted n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 164.3x 15.4x 20.8x 40.4x 19.4x 26.9x 17.8x 14.9x 12.8x 10.5x 23.9x 20.8x 13.8x
EV/C. Employed 2.2x 3.1x 3.1x 1.2x 0.9x 7.5x 3.7x 3.5x 4.6x 4.2x 4.8x 4.2x 3.7x 3.3x 2.9x 3.9x 4.2x 3.5x
Price/BV 1.9x 2.3x 2.5x 1.2x 0.9x 3.5x 2.2x 2.1x 3.2x 3.4x 4.2x 3.7x 3.2x 2.7x 2.4x 2.7x 3.2x 2.9x
PBT/ Market cap (14%) (9%) (5%) (6%) (6%) 0% 5% 4% 2% 5% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 3.0% 4.2% 7.3%
Real FCF yield* 3% - - - - - - (0%) 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% - 0.0% 2.2%
Norm. FCF yield** (16%) (9%) (6%) (6%) (7%) 0% 5% 3% 2% 5% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2.8% 3.5% 6.7%
Adj. FCF yield^ (over EV) (18%) (12%) (7%) (10%) (13%) (1%) 6% 3% 2% 5% 3% 5% 6% 7% 9% 2.6% 3.5% 6.9%
DVD Yield (%) 3% - - - - - - - - 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 0% 2%
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Growth case could prove prudent given massive optionalities
Historically, little downside deviation from mgm. Guidance. Current base case is that of consensus. Optionalities could prove real.
Current base case in line with consensus Strong optionalities not included in estimates:
▪ At this level of analysis we position the company in line with consensus. 1 Sign up of Infineon for SiC
▪ Further research needed in per end-market to provide valuable growth insights ▪ Concentrated market: Aixtron serves 2 of the top-4
providers of SiC to auto OEMs. Positioning suggests
Metric 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
Infineon could sign in 2023e.
Revenue 230 269 260 269 429 463 594 647 722 829
Consensus 230 269 260 269 429 463 594 649 724 827 ▪ Overall c.45% m.s. for Aixtron could jump to 60%+
Fund vs. Cons. - - - - - - (0%) (0%) (0%) 0% SiC manuf. Market Share1 Customer
Gross margin 32% 44% 42% 40% 42% 42% 45% 46% 46% 46%
Consensus 32% 44% 42% 40% 42% 42% 45% 45% 45% 45%
ST Micro 26% X
Fund vs. Cons. - - - - - - 0% 1% 1% 1% On Semi 26% ✓
EBIT (19) 42 27 22 89 97 154 181 206 244
WolfSpeed 18% ✓
Consensus (19) 42 27 22 89 97 155 176 203 233
Fund vs. Cons. - - - - - - (1%) 3% 2% 5% Infineon 22% Potential
Other 8% Some ✓
No variation between historical guidance and actuals 2 Apple MicroLED contract extending to Iphone
▪ Since available guidance data, solid track-record of execution with little downside variation between guidance and ▪ Aixtron has recently signed a contract with Apple to
actual results, all in top-line, gross margin and EBIT exclusively provide MicroLED equipment to ASM
Measure 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E (Apple´s contract manufacturer) for the iWatch from
Revenue Guidance 195 245 275 280 340 475 610 640 2024e: order intake of 23e 2024 onwards.
Actual 230 269 260 269 429 463 594 647 Fund estimates ▪ Total contract will be around €120m
Actual vs. Guidance 18.1% 9.7% (5.6%) (3.8%) 26.2% (2.5%)
▪ In reality, this is a test to produce MicroLED at scale.
Gross Margin Guidance n.m. 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 41.0% 45.0% 45.0% If execution (yields) are attractive, Apple is
Actual 32.1% 43.8% 41.9% 40.2% 42.0% 42.2% considering rolling out MicroLED into iPhones in
Actual vs. Guidance 3.8% 1.9% 0.2% 2.0% 1.2% 2026e onwards.
▪ Potential rollout of MicroLED into iPhone would
translate in hundreds of millions for Aixtron.
EBIT Adjusted Guidance n.m. 18 29 35 43 105
Actual 5 42 39 35 99 105
Actual vs. Guidance n.m. 125.9% 35.1% (0.5%) 132.9% 0.2%
10
Key Investment Risks
Exposed to semis cyclicality. Secular demand, global presence and end-market diversification are the main de-risk factors
Key Risk Risk factors Assessment Mitigating factor
▪ Recessionary environment can trigger lower CapEx ▪ Diversified end markets provide demand resiliency. Tangential
Macro
▪ Inventory build-up depth from 2021 to be seen MID megatrends such as increasing use of advanced semiconductors in 5G
environment
▪ Exposure to commodity prices networks, SiC, EVs and re-shoring should diminish cyclicality.
▪ Very strong position across its end markets and solid track-record of
▪ Aixtron competes against several advanced competitors, innovation and market share gains.
Competition also coming from higher cost-effective regions (Japan MID
and Korea) ▪ There are not many quality competitors for MOCVD systems except for
Veeco in the US, and each of the competitors focuses in specific niches.
High ▪ 3Q22 revenue split: 66% Asia, 16% Europe, 17% ▪ The benefits of diversification should mitigate the foreign exchange risk.
international Americas. It implies being exposed to additional factors MID ▪ Large mix of Asia does not come from Asian companies but Western
sales such as weaker macro, tariffs, and FX. companies manufacturing their semis in China or other (i.e. Apple)
▪ Aixtron's revenues do not swing from year to year as growth has been
▪ Potential variability in its revenue growth, driven by the driven more broadly across its product suite.
Revenue
boom and bust cycles felt throughout its LED and LOW
volatility
Optoelectronics segments. ▪ Diversification and strong end-market demand should smooth swing in
specific market headwinds.
11
Management / Milestones / Alignment
New management in place since 2021. Management wants to improve the product mix to increase margins. Strong liquidity, and free float.
Key Management Share price evolution (€)
Dr. Felix Jan Grawert (CEO & Chairman – Executive Board): Appointed Chairman of the Country Germany
Executive Board (CEO) in April 2021. Joined Aixtron in Aug-17. PhD in Electrical Share Price (Euro) 27
Engineering and Computer Science from MIT. Career in Infineon and Mckinsey. Shares Outstanding (m) 113
B. Salary: €430k / Holding: c.0.23% stake Market capitalization (€bn) 3.1
10-Day Average Volume (m) 0.5
35.0
Dr. Christian Danninger (CFO and Member – Executive Board): He has served as the
30.0
Company’s CFO since May 2021. He has degrees in Law and Economics and has
25.0
experience as CFO and COO.
20.0
B. Salary: €220k / Holding: c.0.04% stake 15.0
10.0
Dr. Jochen Linck, (COO and Member – Executive Board): He has been COO since 5.0
October 2020. He has Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from MIT. Extensive 0.0
▪ Dr. Bernd Schulte retired at the expiry of his contract on Mar-21. Dr. Felix Grawert took Invesco 5.0% 13.9 Institutional
over as Chairman of the Executive Board, and CEO on Apr-21. Citigroup 5.0% 8.6 Institutional
▪ On May-20, Aixtron appointed Dr. Jochen Linck as new member of the Executive board
Baillie Gifford 4.9% 10.4 Institutional
in the role of COO and CTO. It was decided Executive Board is to be expanded to include
a CFO, bringing the total number of members to three. Argonaut Capital 3.5% 6.5 Institutional
▪ In 2021, Aixtron appointed Dr. Christian Danninger as a new member of the Executive T.Rowe Price 3.0% 14.7 Institutional
Board as CFO.
Artisan Partners 2.9% 9.8 Activist
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Aixtron positioning vs. Fund portfolio
Aixtron Fund the range of Fund attributes fundamentally. On the high end of market cap, but potential window could appear
▪ Aixtron would be the 10th largest holding by sales in the Fund portfolio. In terms of EBITDA it would be the 4st largest.
▪ On a market size perspective, current size of €2.9bn its on the high end of the portfolio.
▪ In terms of PE, Aixtron now trading at 18x ex-cash. Exit PE of 20x on the high-end, being the third largest, in the group of Kardex and Lectra.
▪ Aixtron would be on the €2.5bn market cap range if it declined 15%. We propose to continue the analysis and take it to Phase II in order to be prepared if the market offers an
attractive window opportunity.
Fund portfolio in 2023 (€m) Sales EBITDA EBIT FCF Market cap. P/E 2023E ex-cash Exit PE
Washtec 482 52 38 34 538 15.2x 15.0x
CIE 3,766 623 434 180 3,153 10.3x 11.5x
Vitec 505 83 60 36 410 13.6x 16.9x
Kardex 615 77 69 37 1,516 21.7x 21.0x
Safestyle 158 5 3 0 32 17.3x 7.0x
Leifheit 240 3 (5) (21) 162 n.m. 15.0x
Bodycote 842 187 115 54 1,416 16.7x 16.4x
Tyman 734 111 86 48 542 n.m. 14.1x
Eurocell 434 38 26 9 160 9.3x 11.3x
Senior 1,050 89 41 13 781 28.2x 16.4x
Guala 894 160 116 9 n.m. 12.9x n.m.
Alimak 509 89 72 68 706 1.1x 1.4x
TIFS 3,284 297 207 84 530 n.m. 10.0x
Lectra 525 95 73 64 1,253 21.6x 24.5x
Barco 1,024 114 94 116 2,462 19.3x 18.0x
Avon 261 36 17 16 328 20.7x 19.2x
Moneysupermarket 433 117 89 79 1,594 18.2x 19.2x
Faes 468 115 96 34 1,026 10.5x 15.0x
Eurowag 261 107 67 11 744 17.1x 19.2x
Rovi 681 131 108 113 2,188 19.2x 17.0x
Average Fund portfolio 858 126 90 49 1,028 16.0x 15.2
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