Unit 3 Tutorials: Concepts of Probability

in Real Life Scenarios

INSIDE UNIT 3

Probability

Outcomes and Events

Fundamental Counting Principle
Theoretical Probability/A Priori Method
Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method
Probability Distribution
Law of Large Numbers/Law of Averages
Simulations
Expected Value
Odds

Single Combined Probability Rules

Complement of an Event
Overlapping Events
Venn Diagrams
"And" vs. "Or" Probability
Independent vs. Dependent Events
"And" Probability for Independent Events
"Either/Or" Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

Conditional and General Combined Probability Rules

Conditional Probability
Two-Way Tables/Contingency Tables
Conditional Probability and Contingency Tables
"And" Probability for Dependent Events
"Either/Or" Probability for Overlapping Events
Bayes' Rule
False Positives/False Negatives
Paradoxes

Probability Distribution

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 Binomial Distribution
Geometric Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Normal Distribution Approximation of the Binomial Distribution

Outcomes and Events

by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover outcomes and events. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. The Difference Between Outcomes and Events

2. Probability Theory

1. The Difference Between Outcomes and Events

In probability, we define an outcome as the singular result of some random process.

 EXAMPLE When you roll a die, the outcome is the role of a 1 or a 6, etc. There is only one, singular
result.
Outcomes will be different based on the process:

Random Process Outcome

Die rolling Rolling a 5

Flipping a coin Tails

Spinning the wheel on Wheel of Fortune “Bankrupt” (one of the sectors on the wheel)
There's a difference between an outcome and an event. While outcomes only have one result,events can
have multiple results.

Random Process Event Outcome

Die rolling Rolling an even number Rolling a 2, 4, or 6

Flipping a coin Tails Tails

Spinning the wheel on Wheel of Fortune Sector over $500 “$1,500”

When rolling a die, while an outcome would be a 5, an event could be rolling an even number. That consists of
the outcomes 2, 4, and 6.

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It could be that an event has one outcome in it, like with the coin flipping: an outcome would be tails, but
maybe tails is also considered an event. This is an event with one outcome in it.

On the Wheel of Fortune example, an event such as a sector over $500, there are several outcomes possible.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Outcome
The singular result of a chance experiment.

Event
An outcome or set of outcomes.

2. Probability Theory
When you do the random process once, like spinning a wheel, rolling a die, or flipping a coin, that's called a
trial.

Probability is going to be defined as the likelihood of a particular event occurring when you do one version of
a random process. It is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. Events with probabilities closer to 1 are more
likely to occur than events with probabilities closer to 0.

A graph of probability might look like this:

The number in the center, which is 0.5, is considered neither likely nor unlikely. It's equally likely to occur as
not occur.

 BRAINSTORM

What are some events that would fall on this spectrum, from unlikely to likely? Some possible examples
might be:

Winning the lottery has a very low probability--almost zero. A zero probability indicates that the event is
impossible. It could not happen. Winning the lottery is almost impossible, so it is at the farthest left here.

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 Drawing a face card from a deck of cards is further to the left because it is less likely. There are fewer
face cards than non-face cards, which means that it would be unlikely to pick a face card.

Flipping tails on the coin is in the center. There are just as many ways to get tails as not get tails, and so
we're going to say that flipping coins numerically has a probability of ½, or 0.5.
Selecting a letter at random from the alphabet, on the other hand, is quite likely. It's even more likely that
you would select a consonant than a vowel, so that would be plotted further to the right.
To have the highest probability, 1, you need an event that is certain to happen. Rolling 6 or less on a die
has to happen--the die result has to be the number 6 or less than that. Therefore, this goes on the
farthest right.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Trial
Running a chance experiment once (e.g., rolling a die, spinning a spinner, flipping a coin)

Probability
A number between 0 and 1 that denotes the likelihood of an event. Events with probabilities closer to
1 are more likely to occur than events with probabilities closer to 0.

 SUMMARY

Probability theory discusses the ways to quantify likelihood. Probability is a way to determine how
likely certain outcomes or events are when you run a trial of a chance experiment. The difference
between outcomes and events is that outcome is the singular result of one trial, whereas an event
could be many outcomes, or results, of a single trial.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

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  TERMS TO KNOW

Event
An outcome or set of outcomes.

Outcome
The singular result of a chance experiment.

Probability
A number between 0 and 1 that denotes the likelihood of an event. Events with probabilities closer to 1
are more likely to occur than events with probabilities closer to 0.

Trial
Running a chance experiment once (e.g. rolling a die, spinning a spinner, flipping a coin)

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Fundamental Counting Principle
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will explain the fundamental counting principle. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Fundamental Counting Principle

2. Applying the Fundamental Counting Principles

1. Fundamental Counting Principle

Consider a chance experiment where you roll the die below and spin this spinner.

Each of these spinning sections is not equally likely. But there are, in fact, four sections. How many different
outcomes of this experiment are possible?

One way to visualize this is with something we call a tree diagram. To start, we're going to enumerate all the
possible outcomes that could happen from the first chance experiment, which is the rolling the die. So, we're
going to make a tree with six possibilities for the die: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Next in the tree are all the possibilities for the spinner, for each possibility for the die. For instance, if a 1 is
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rolled, the spinner might spin A, B, C, or D. If a 2 is rolled, the spinner might land on A, B, C, or D, etc. Each
outcome represents a different path: one path is 1, C, for example. Another path is 1, D, and so forth. What you
end up seeing are 24 different outcomes. There are six branches for the die, each of which has four
outcomes for the spinner. So it's like calculating 6 times 4.

In fact, that's what the fundamental counting principle says. It says if you do two chance experiments, A and
B, then experiment A has m potential outcomes and experiment B has n potential outcomes. It follows, then,
that there are m times n potential outcomes when experiments A and B are performed together.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Tree Diagram
A way to visualize the different "paths" that a sequence of chance experiments could take.

Fundamental Counting Principle

If chance experiment A has m possible outcomes for one trial, and chance experiment B hasn
possible outcomes for its trial (independent of the first trial), then there are m times n (m x n) potential
outcomes when A and B are done together.

2. Applying the Fundamental Counting Principles

The fundamental counting principle can actually extend beyond just two experiments. It can extend to three,
four, five, or however many experiments are being conducted together, by simply multiplying the number of
potential outcomes for each consecutive experiment.

⚙ THINK ABOUT IT

In the example above, there were 6 outcomes for the die and 4 outcomes for the spinner, so there were 6
times 4, or 24 potential outcomes. But what if we added another spinner that had 3 outcomes? How do
you think we would find the number of potential outcomes?
Using the definition of the Fundamental Counting Principles, we can apply the following formula to find the
number of possible outcomes for independent events to occur together.

 FORMULA

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 Fundamental Counting Principle

where is the number of ways for a specific independent event.

IN CONTEXT
A family is going to have three children. How many different orderings of children are there in terms
of boys and girls?

The first child could be a boy or a girl. If you start with a boy, you could have another boy, and the
third child could be a girl. Another outcome is that you could have three boys.

If you start with a girl, the second and third child could both be boys. Another outcome could be that
you have two girls, then have a boy.

As you can see, there are many different outcomes. To find all possible outcomes, you can create a
tree diagram.

Looking at all the tree diagram branches here, you can see there are eight possible outcomes.

An easier way to do it would be to use the Fundamental Counting Principle. For the first child, there
are two options; for the second child, two options; and for the third child, two options.

2 times 2 times 2 equals 8 outcomes. The tree diagram isn't really necessary. The number of choices
for each of the children multiplied by each outcome for the children is what is needed.

 SUMMARY

The fundamental counting principle is used to determine the total number of different outcomes that
could result from several chance experiments done either at the same time or one right after the
other. The number of potential outcomes is equal to the product of the number of trials for each
experiment. Tree diagrams are useful tools for visualizing all the different permutations, or different
paths, that these chance experiments could take.

Good luck!

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Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Fundamental Counting Principle

If chance experiment A has m possible outcomes for one trial, and chance experiment B has n possible
outcomes for its trial (independent of the first trial), then there are mxn potential outcomes when A and B
are done together.

Tree Diagram
A way to visualize the different "paths" that a sequence of chance experiments could take.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Fundamental Counting Principle

where is the number of ways for a specific independent event.

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Theoretical Probability/A Priori Method
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will discuss the Theoretical Probability Model (also known as "a priori method"). Our
discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Theoretical Probability Model

2. Unlikely Equal Outcomes

1. Theoretical Probability Model

A fairly common way to thinking about probability is to enumerate all the outcomes and assign them each an
equal probability.

IN CONTEXT
When you roll a die, there are six results since they are numbered: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Those are the
outcomes.

Suppose you wanted to determine the probability of rolling a 2. Only one of those faces shows a 2,
and there are six total faces, so the probability of you rolling a 2 is, therefore, one out of six.

The understanding here is that the faces--1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6--are equally likely. This is the key! There
are other events whose probabilities can be calculated using this method.

Other probabilities calculated using this method are based on the key idea that outcomes are equally likely.
Anytime you have outcomes that are equally likely, the theoretical probability method can be used, such as:

A coin flip
Drawing a card from a deck (the deck must be adequately shuffled)
Selecting marbles from a jar (all marbles must be equal size so you have an equal probability of picking
them out). They should also be well mixed.

The basic formula for theoretical probability is:

 FORMULA

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 Theoretical Probability

 TERM TO KNOW

Theoretical Probability
The method of assigning probability to events based on the assumption that all events are equally
likely. The probability of an event is the equally likely ways an event can occur divided by the number
of possible outcomes.

2. Unlikely Equal Outcomes

The theoretical probability model does not work if the outcomes aren't equally likely.

 EXAMPLE You could use this reasoning to say, for example, you could get home safely from work
in your car, or you could get in a horrible car crash. Either is a possible outcome. If you assign those
equal likelihoods, then the probability of you getting into a car crash is one half, because there are
only two outcomes. You either make it home safe, or you get in a crash.

However, we know from experience that the outcome ofnot having an accident is so much more likely
than the outcome of having an accident. Therefore, equal probabilities are not assigned in this case
because experience shows that those two outcomes are not equally likely.

 DID YOU KNOW

The theoretical probability model is also called "priori method," which means it is known prior to, or
beforehand.

 SUMMARY

The Theoretical Probability Model (or a priori method) states that when you have equally likely
outcomes in some kind of chance experiment, the probabilities that you can determine for events is
calculated by taking the number of outcomes in the event divided by the total number of possible
outcomes. The caveat of this model, however, is that this only works when the events are equally
likely, or the outcomes are equally likely. It does not work when the outcomes are not equally likely.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Theoretical Probability
The method of assigning probability to events based on the assumption that all events are equally likely.

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 The probability of an event is the equally likely ways an event can occur divided by the number of
possible outcomes.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Theoretical Probability

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Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will discuss the relative frequency probability method. Our discussion breaks down as
follows:

1. Relative Frequency Probability Method

2. Subjective Approach

1. Relative Frequency Probability Method

The relative frequency probability method, also called the empirical method, is based on past experience.
Let's explore a coin flip experiment to explain further.

Here is a chart for coin flips. You begin where it says, "start."

If you flip heads--for this scenario, heads will be defined as a win--you will go up the blue line that extends up
to 100%. If you flip heads on the first trial, your experimental probability is 100%. If you flip heads on the next
trial, it remains 100%. Next, if you flip a tail, then it reduces down to 66.6%. The graph simulates what would
happen with the continuous flipping of coins.

What do you notice? The graph is fairly erratic at the beginning, but it begins to settle down towards the end.
It settles in right around 50%.

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 ⭐ BIG IDEA

The longer you run the experiment, the closer the blue line would stay to this red line. If you kept going
forever, the blue and red would be indistinguishable.
The relative frequency approach states that the probability of an event is the number of times it has occurred
in identical trials, divided by the total number of trials. The relative frequency probability model is also called
the empirical method or experimental probability.

 FORMULA

Experimental Probability/Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method

In the case of the coin flips, the chart indicates the probability of a coin coming up heads is 50%--not because
there are two faces to the coin, but rather because heads have come up about half the time in repeated trials
of coin flipping.

 TERM TO KNOW

Experimental Probability/Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method

A way of assigning probabilities that states that the probability of an event is equal to the number of
times it has occurred in identical trials of a chance experiment, divided by the number of trials of the
chance experiment.

2. Subjective Approach
One additional way to talk about probability is called the subjective probability approach. It's not a
mathematical model like some of the others that we discussed, like the frequentist approach or the a priori
model, but it's based on your judgment.

You might hear words like this all the time:

"I'm 90% certain I left the garage open."

Does that mean that if the frequentist approach was used, you would say "90% of the times that I felt this way
I did, in fact, leave the garage open?" It doesn't really make a lot of sense. You would basically be saying that

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you're more sure than not sure that you left the garage open.

What about this kind of a statement?

"I'd say there's about a 50-50 chance I got the job."

Again, what does that mean? About half the time you felt this way, you ended up getting the job? This isn't a
frequentist approach. This isn't any mathematical model.

Or what about this?

"There's a one in a million chance of surviving that kind of accident."

Again, they're just saying that they don't think that this scenario is very possible or very probable. They're not
saying that there have been a million such accidents and only one person survived.

 TERM TO KNOW

Subjective Probability
Not a true probability model at all, this method assigns probabilities based on how likely an individual
feels the event is.

 SUMMARY

The relative frequency model is the one that you will mainly use. It deals with looking at the past to
see, relative to the total number of experiments that you've done, how many of them came up with a
particular event. The relative frequency is defined as the probability of the event. We also learned
about subjective probability and how it's not technically a probability. It's more of a judgment call,
based on how you feel about the likelihood of a particular event happening.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Experimental Probability/Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method

A way of assigning probabilities that states that the probability of an event is equal to the number of
times it has occurred in identical trials of a chance experiment, divided by the number of trials of the
chance experiment.

Subjective Probability
Not a true probability model at all, this method assigns probabilities based on how likely an individual
feels the event is.

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  FORMULAS TO KNOW

Experimental Probability/Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method

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Probability Distribution
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will introduce probability distributions. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Discrete Probability
2. Continuous Probability
3. Countably Infinite Outcomes

1. Discrete Probability
This spinner has eight equally sized sectors. If you spin the spinner, there are three sectors marked with a 1,
one marked with a 2, two marked with a 3, and another two marked with a 4. All the sectors are equally likely,
but not every outcome is equally likely.

A probability distribution can be set up for the spinner. The probability distribution is a lot like a frequency
distribution, except it will be set up as probabilities instead of frequencies. All the outcomes that could happen
from the spinner will be listed.

Number 1 2 3 4

Next, instead of how often each number comes up in terms of frequency, we're going to list how often they
come up in terms of probability. Three-eighths of the time you'll get a 1. One-eighth of the time you'll get a 2.
Two-eighths of the time you'll get a 3, and two-eighths of the time you'll get a 4.

Number 1 2 3 4

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 Probability

Two things should be noticed with this probability distribution:

1. Each individual probability must be between 0 and 1.

Every probability--the three-eighths, one-eighths, two-eighths, etc.--is a number between 0 and 1. Any
probability in a probability distribution has to be between 0 and 1 inclusive.

2. The sum of all probabilities must be 1.

The sum of all the probabilities in the probability distribution is 1. It makes sense--with a probability of 1, it's
certain that you will get a 1, 2, 3 or 4 on this spinner.

Number 1 2 3 4

Probability

This type of probability is called a discrete probability distribution, which means there are only so many
outcomes.

 TRY IT

Consider two flips of a coin. Here are your four possibilities.

Possible Outcomes When Flipping Two Coins

Heads - Heads Heads - Tails Tails - Heads Tails - Tails

Next, create a probability distribution for the number of tails. You should have come up with something
like this:

Probability Distribution When Flipping Two Coins

Tails 0 1 2

Probability

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 The probability that you get zero tails is a fourth, a half probability of getting one, and one-fourth
probability of two tails on the two flips. Notice once again, each of those probabilities is a number
between 0 and 1. In addition, one-fourth plus one-half plus one-fourth adds up to 1.
The coin and spinner scenarios are both discrete probability distributions because there are only so many
outcomes.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Probability Distribution
A description of the possible outcomes and their probability of occurring.

Discrete Probability Distribution

A probability distribution with only so many values. The probabilities can be listed in a table alongside
the potential outcomes.

2. Continuous Probability
There are also probability distributions that are continuous probability distributions in which the probability is
related by some mathematical function. For example, the normal distribution is a probability distribution.

In this case, the area under the curve should equal one, and the graph should lie entirely above or on the x-
axis. That's how those two rules apply to continuous distributions. With a continuous distribution, an outcome
can be anything within this range on the x-axis.

 TERM TO KNOW

Continuous Probability Distribution

A probability distribution where probabilities are related by a mathematical function, and the
outcomes can take any value within a given range.

3. Countably Infinite Outcomes

It is important to note that some distributions have what we call countably infinite outcomes.

 EXAMPLE Suppose you are interested in the number of rolls it takes to obtain a 6 on your die. If
you rolled a 6 on your first roll that would be a 1 because it took you one roll. If you rolled it on your

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 second trial after missing on the first trial, then it would be a 2.

However, suppose you rolled 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 5, 2, and just kept on going here; hypothetically, this could go
on forever. There are infinitely many outcomes here, or infinitely many rolls that it hypothetically could
take to obtain a 6. This is what we would call countably infinite outcomes.
These are considered discrete because, for instance, it can't take you one and a half rolls to obtain a 6. It has
to take an integer value, like a 1 or 2 or 3. Since it can only contain these particular values as outcomes,--the
integers--it is discrete instead of continuous.

 SUMMARY

Probability distributions are a lot like frequency distributions in that they show the different outcomes.
However, instead of frequency distributions, they're not going to measure how often they take that
value, but instead how likely each of those outcomes is. We learned about two types of probability
distributions: discrete and continuous. Discrete probability distributions are going to either have a
finite or countably infinite number of outcomes. Continuous probability distributions have outcomes
that can take any value within a given range.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Continuous Probability Distribution

A probability distribution where probabilities are related by a mathematical function, and the outcomes
can take any value within a given range.

Discrete Probability Distribution

A probability distribution with only so many values. The probabilities can be listed in a table alongside
the potential outcomes.

Probability Distribution
A description of the possible outcomes and their probability of occurring.

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Law of Large Numbers/Law of Averages
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover two important statistical concepts, through the definition and discussion of:

1. Law of Large Numbers

2. Law of Averages

1. Law of Large Numbers

Suppose you flip a coin and determine the long-term relative frequency of heads. You're going to determine
heads to be a win. Let's assume the first coin you flip is heads. You'll go up to the first dot in the chart below,
as high as you can go. If you flip heads again, you'll go to the second dot.

Suppose the third time, you flip tails. That means you will follow the blue line down. Next, if you flip heads
again, you will follow it back up. You can continue looking at what happens in the long term by simulating the
rest. You will start to notice that these swings at the beginning are fairly extreme--they're very large shifts,
whereas over to the right, the shifts are less dramatic.

You may also notice that the long term relative frequency of heads seems to be settling in right around 50%.

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The law of large numbers states that the more times you run a chance experiment, the relative frequency of
an event approaches the true probability of that event. You're going to get closer and closer to the right
answer the larger the number of trials becomes. So, if you keep going, you would probably get closer and
closer and closer to 50% as you kept going to the right.

Now, this isn't to say that odd things don't happen. Look closely at the chart. You did have runs of three and
four heads during our experiment, so it's possible that unusual things may happen. Four heads in a row is
fairly unusual, but it happens. You also had a couple of different runs of three tails in a row.

Unusual things can happen in the short term, but predictably, what will happen in the long term is that the blue
line will start to settle in right around 50%.

 TERM TO KNOW

Law of Large Numbers

A mathematical rule that states that as the number of trials of a chance experiment increase, the
experimental probability of an event becomes closer to the true probability of that event.

2. Law of Averages
The law of averages is not actually a mathematical term. It's a psychological game people play with
themselves to convince themselves that favorable outcomes are just over the horizon.

On the radio, you might hear a sports announcer say one or both of these two things:

"He hasn't gotten a hit in his last 4 at-bats; he's due"

"He's gotten hits in his last four at-bats, he's on a

hot streak! He'll certainly get a hit this time, too!"

This first saying states that he's due to get a hit this time because he hasn't gotten a hit so far. The second
one states that he's going to get a hit this time because he has gotten hits in his last four turns at bat. None of
these make any sense--both of these logically are fallacies.

They apply the law of large numbers, which means that maybe this player gets a hit one out of every three
times he's at bat in the long term. They're trying to apply the law of large numbers to these five at-bats that
this player has had.

⭐ BIG IDEA

You see the "law of averages" a lot in the casino. Remember, it's not actually a mathematical term, but
rather a way for individuals to convince themselves of a favorable outcome.

One person may say, "I've won five in a row! I can't lose!", while another person may say, "I've lost five in a
row! I must be due to win!"
The law of averages--the false law of averages--is also called the gambler's fallacy or the gambler's ruin.
People can convince themselves that favorable outcomes are about to happen even when they're not

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necessarily going to happen because they're applying the law of large numbers to small numbers of trials.

 TERM TO KNOW

Law of Averages/Gambler's Fallacy/Gambler's Ruin

A misapplication of the Law of Large Numbers, where people try to apply long-run probabilities to
short-run events. The false "Law of Averages" is not a mathematical phenomenon, but rather a
psychological trick people play on themselves to convince themselves that favorable outcomes are
about to occur, using past behavior to influence their reasoning.

 SUMMARY

The law of large numbers states that over the long term, the relative frequency of an event is the
probability of that event. The key is distinguishing long term from short term. The law of large
numbers sometimes will be inappropriately applied to short term events. This is called the law of
averages (or gambler's fallacy/gambler's ruin). It's important not to fall into the trap of applying the
predictable nature of large numbers to the unpredictable nature of short term events.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Law of Averages/Gambler's Fallacy/Gambler's Ruin

A misapplication of the Law of Large Numbers, where people try to apply long-run probabilities to short-
run events. The false "Law of Averages" is not a mathematical phenomenon, but rather a psychological
trick people play on themselves to convince themselves that favorable outcomes are about to occur,
using past behavior to influence their reasoning.

Law of Large Numbers

A mathematical rule that states that as the number of trials of a chance experiment increase, the
experimental probability of an event becomes closer to the true probability of that event.

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Simulations
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of simulation, through the definition and discussion of:

1. Simulation

1. Simulation
Suppose a family has five children. What's the probability that at least two of those five are girls?

You could figure this out in a tree diagram, but that would be an unwieldy tree diagram. You can use a
simulation to figure out complicated problems like this one. This is also called theMonte Carlo method,
named after Monte Carlo Casino because it uses physical objects like dice.

Let's approximate the probability using a simulation. Get five dice out and let the boys and girls be equally
likely. Let's have faces 1 through 3 represent girls, and 4 through 6 represent boys.

Roll #1:

On the first roll, you get two girls (the 1 and the 2).

Roll #2:

One the second roll, this situation has four girls in it--the 2, 3, 3, and 1. Redo this many times, and the relative
frequency of getting two or more girls will approximate the probability.

Suppose you do this 20 times, then analyze the results in the chart below.

Trial Die 1 Die 2 Die 3 Die 4 Die 5 Girls

1 6 4 1 2 6 2

2 2 3 3 6 1 4

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 3 6 3 3 2 2 4

4 1 2 4 4 1 3

5 6 5 6 3 2 2

6 5 6 4 6 5 0

7 2 1 3 6 1 4

8 6 3 2 3 3 4

9 5 2 1 1 2 4

10 2 5 3 4 1 3

11 6 1 5 2 4 2

12 1 2 1 6 5 3

13 2 6 5 5 2 2

14 3 6 1 5 1 3

15 6 3 5 2 2 3

16 6 2 1 4 1 3

17 4 5 3 5 1 2

18 2 3 3 6 1 4

19 4 4 1 6 2 2

20 6 6 2 1 6 2
As you can see in the chart, in the first trial, you got a 6, 4, 1, 2, and 6, which represented two girls. In one
situation, you didn't get any girls in your group of five.

This is the histogram of the number of girls per family.

It is fairly unusual that you didn't get exactly one girl in any of the simulations. The most common was two
girls; three and four were also very common. You got at least two girls in 19 of the 20 simulations. Your guess
for the probability of having at least two girls in a family is 19 out of 20, or 95%. Your best guess is that you
have a 95% probability of getting at least two girls in a family.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 25
However, that is not the right answer. If you had done more simulations, you would have gotten a more
correct answer because things would have started to even out. The graph below shows an approximation
based on 10,000 simulations where 8,127 of the 10,000 had 2 or more girls.

The right answer is, in fact, 0.8125, about 81% of the time. If you simulated more than 20 times with the dice,
you would have gotten a more accurate response. So our sample of 20 was not truly representative.
Apparently, having four girls is fairly uncommon. Two and three are very common.

 TERM TO KNOW

Simulation/Monte Carlo Method

A way to approximate probability based on trials of chance experiments that mimic the real-life trials.

 SUMMARY

It's possible to solve complicated problems through a process called simulation (also known as the
Monte Carlo method). First, come up with a method of simulation that has the same frequencies of
what you're trying to predict. Second, run many trials of your simulation. Lastly, answer the question
based on the frequencies from your simulated results.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Simulation/Monte Carlo Method

A way to approximate probability based on trials of chance experiments that mimic the real-life trials.

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Expected Value
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will discuss determining the expected value. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Expected Value of a Probability Distribution

a. Expected Value of a Spinner
b. Expected Value of a Roulette Wheel

1. Expected Value of a Probability Distribution

Expected value is the long-term average taken by the outcomes from a chance experiment. It can sometimes
be a confusing term, so we can also use the term mean or average of a probability distribution.

The expected value is found by adding the products of each individual outcome and its probability.

 FORMULA

Expected Value

 HINT

Notationally, we can write the expected value of a probability distribution for x as μx (mu meaning mean)
or E(X) (E meaning expected value). Both of these are accepted notations, though typically, μ will be used.
 TERM TO KNOW

Expected Value
The long-term average value taken by the outcomes from a chance experiment. It does not need to
be one of the possible outcomes.

1a. Expected Value of a Spinner

The spinner below has three 1's, a 2, two 3's, and two 4's.

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The probability distribution is shown here. The outcomes are 1, 2, 3, and 4, and their probabilities are 3/8, 1/8,
2/8, and 2/8, respectively.

Number 1 2 3 4

Probability

When trying to determine an expected value (what is expected to happen), this expected value will be
discussed as a long-term average value that the spinner might produce.

⚙ THINK ABOUT IT

What do you think would happen if someone spun the spinner a number of times? Suppose this spinner
was spun eight times and it went according to the expectations.

If spun eight times, the expectation would be for it to fall on each sector once. It doesn't have to happen
that way, but it seems like that would be the expectation.
So if the spinner was spun eight times, we would expect three 1's, one 2, two 3's, and two 4's to be obtained.
The law of large numbers says that the longer this is done (in the long term), this is exactly what will happen.
About three out of every eight times, you'll get a 1. About one out of every eight times, you'll get a 2, etc.
Therefore, you're going for the long-term average. Now, if that's the case, the mean is just going to be the
average value from those eight spins:

The average value from those eight spins is 2.375. However, you can also rewrite that fraction by grouping
the 1's, the 2's, the 3's, and the 4's. The 1 appeared three times, the 2 appeared one time, the 3 appeared
twice, and the 4 appeared twice.

You can continue breaking this down by having each addend individually divided by 8 and then added. So
now it might look like this:

Now, some of these look familiar. In fact, these fractions can be rewritten a different way. All of these fractions

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can be rewritten with the item in the parentheses pulled out in front of the remaining fraction, like this:

These numbers are looking quite familiar, aren't they? It seems like these were the numbers from the
probability distribution, where these numbers-- 1, 2, 3, and 4--were the potential outcomes, the values that will
be referred to as "x". The fractions--the 3/8, 1/8, 2/8, and 2/8--were their probabilities.

This is how expected value will be calculated: the sum of each outcome times its individual probability.
The expected value, also called the mean of a probability distribution, is found by adding the products of each
individual outcome and its probability. In this case, 2.375 was the result.

It is not a possibility on the spinner, nor is it an integer. Since the focus is about the long-term average, it
doesn't actually need to be an integer. It doesn't need to be possible, either.

1b. Expected Value of a Roulette Wheel

Consider the roulette wheel below. There are 38 sectors: 18 red, 18 black, and 2 green. All the sectors are
equally likely.

What is the mean of a distribution showing the payouts and probabilities from betting red on a roulette wheel?
If you bet $1 and you win, you win $1. If you don't win, you lose the dollar that you bet.

Winnings -1 1

Probability 20/38 18/38

There are 18 red sectors on a roulette wheel. There are 20, therefore, that aren't red, out of the 38. Find the
expected value for a play on the roulette wheel.

One outcome is that you lose a dollar 20 out of 38 times. The other outcome is that you gain a dollar 18 out of
38 times. When you solve it, you end up with negative 2/38, which is about negative 0.05.
What this means is that over the long-term, you lose about a nickel every time you place a $1 bet on a roulette
wheel. Because it's negative, that means you will be losing money over the long-term.

 SUMMARY

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 The expected value, also called the mean, of a probability distribution is taken by multiplying each
probability times its outcome, then adding each of those products. It doesn't have to be an integer or
a possible value.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Expected Value
The long-term average value taken by the outcomes from a chance experiment. It does not need to be
one of the possible outcomes.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Expected Value

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Odds
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will discuss odds--odds in favor of an event or the odds against an event. Our discussion
breaks down as follows:

1. Odds
2. Converting Odds to Probability

1. Odds
Odds are often confused with probability. However, odds are another way to express the likelihood that is
different than probability. When you say that there is a 1 in 5 probability, that will be different than saying the
odds in favor are 1 in 5.

IN CONTEXT
On this spinner, there are three 1's, a 2, two 3's, and two 4's.

Suppose that 3 is a favorable outcome. Probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to total
outcomes. Since there are two 3's on the spinner, there are two favorable outcomes out of eight
total outcomes. Therefore, 1/4 is the probability of 3.

Now we're going to contrast that with odds. The odds are the ratio of favorable outcomes to

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 unfavorable outcomes. So, for a 3, there are two favorable outcomes, and there are six unfavorable
outcomes. Therefore, the odds in favor of a 3 on the spinner are two to six, which can be reduced to
one to three.

Odds in favor of 3 = 1:3

This says the odds in favor of a 3 are one to three, which means that for every one favorable
outcome, there are three unfavorable outcomes.

Odds against are the ratio of unfavorable outcomes to the favorable outcomes, which means that
there are three unfavorable to every one favorable. Odds against a 3 are three to one. Odds can
also be expressed against an event simply by reversing the numbers you got when calculating the
odds in favor of the event.

Odds against 3 = 3:1

Odds are usually expressed with a colon, rather than a fraction bar, although both are accepted. You
should always reduce as if it was a fraction--in this case, for example, 6:2 reduced to 3:1, or 2:6
reduced to 1:3.

 DID YOU KNOW

When odds are listed in the newspaper or a contest, typically what they're reporting are the odds against
winning, such as the odds against, for example, a horse winning a particular race.
 TERM TO KNOW

Odds
A ratio relating the number of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes (odds in favor) or vice-
versa (odds against). Odds are usually expressed in simplest integer terms (e.g., 2:1, not 0.5:1 or 4:2).

2. Converting Odds to Probability

Let's convert probability to odds by exploring a few scenarios.

Odds
Odds
Probability in Explanation
Against
Favor

P(heads on a coin) = 1:1 1:1 On a coin, there's one favorable and one unfavorable outcome.

On a roulette wheel, there are 18 favorable outcomes to 20

18:20 20:18
unfavorable outcomes, however, you must remember to reduce.
P(red in roulette) = = =
This is also the same as 9 favorable outcomes to 10 unfavorable
9:10 10:9
outcomes.

P(4 on a fair die) = On the die, there is one favorable outcome and five unfavorable

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 1:5 5:1 outcomes.

⭐ BIG IDEA

For the odds against, you simply switch the numbers around.
Let's try another one.

 TRY IT

Determine the following odds using this jar of marbles

Odds
Odds
Probability in Explanation
Against
Favor

Of the 18 marbles, 7 of the marbles are red, and 11 of them are not
P(red) = 7:11 11:7
red.

Of the 18 marbles, 5 of the marbles are green, and 13 of them are

P(green) = 5:13 13:5
not green.

Of the 18 marbles, 4 of the marbles are blue, and 14 of them are

4:14 = 14:4 =
P(blue) = = not blue. This can be reduced: for every 9 marbles, 2 are blue and
2:7 7:2
7 are not blue.

Of the 18 marbles, 1 of the marbles is orange, and 17 of them are

P(orange) = 1:17 17:1
not orange.

 SUMMARY

Odds are not the same as probability. The two terms should not be used interchangeably, although in
real life you may hear it often. The odds in favor of an event are the favorable to unfavorable outcome
ratio. The odds against an event are the unfavorable to favorable outcome ratio. Odds can be
converted to probability by evaluating favorable to unfavorable outcomes.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 33
  TERMS TO KNOW

Odds
A ratio relating the number of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes (odds in favor) or vice-versa
(odds against). Odds are usually expressed in simplest integer terms (eg 2:1, not 0.5:1 or 4:2).

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 34
Complement of an Event
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the complement of an event, through the definition and discussion of:

1. Complement of an Event
2. Probability of "At Least One"

1. Complement of an Event
Complement is not the same thing as saying something nice--this tutorial is discussing complement with an
"e." Complement of an event, in a mathematical sense, is actually just the event not happening.

Look at the roulette wheel and find the probability that you'll land on a green sector when you throw the ball
in there.

There are two green sectors out of 38, all of which are equally likely. The probability of landing on green is
2/38.

What about the probability of getting something that isn't green? Count everything that's not green, and you
end up with 36 outcomes, or 36 out of 38. It seems like there's a relationship between those two numbers.

An event not occurring is called a complement of an event. For instance, the complement of the event landing
in a green sector on the roulette wheel is the event landing in a sector that's not green.

⭐ BIG IDEA

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 There are many different ways to notate this.

If you write this A with an apostrophe, it’s called A prime. You can also use a bar, or you can use a c that looks
like an exponent. You can also use a tilde (~). There's not a lot of consistency among different textbooks or
among the mathematical community.

Looking back to the roulette wheel, the probability of landing on green was two out of 38. The probability of
the complement of green, which was landing on anything besides green --denoted as P(greenc)-- was 36 out
of 38.

There seems to be a relationship here. If you add 2/38 and 36/38, you get 38/38 or 1. Was there a way to
calculate this 36 out of 38 without counting up all 36 non-green sectors?

The probability of the complement of an event is 1 minus the probability of the event.

 FORMULA

Complement of an Event}}

So the probability of green complement is equal to 1 minus the probability of green, or 1 minus 2/38, which
equals 36/38.

IN CONTEXT
To find the probability of the complement of each of these events, you'd want to find the probability
of the event first, and then subtract from one.

Event Probability of Event Probability of Complement

Rolling a "6" on a Die

Spinning "Red" on a Roulette Wheel

Flipping "Tails" on a Fair Coin

 TERM TO KNOW

Complement of an Event
All outcomes not in the given event.

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2. Probability of "At Least One"
Suppose you flip a coin ten times. What's the probability that at least one of these flips is a head? Think about
it using complements. What would be the complement of getting at least one head? The complement event
would be getting no heads.

The probability of no heads is so much easier to calculate than the other one. When flipping a coin ten times,
the probability of getting no heads is 1 out of 1,024 (for this specific problem, you don't need to know how to
calculate that).

Therefore, the probability of at least one heads coming up on ten flips is 1 minus the probability of no heads,
so 1,023 out of 1,024.

This leads us to an important finding within the context of real-life problems. Whenever you're asking for the
probability of at least one, meaning something happens at least once, it's 1 minus the probability that it doesn't
happen at all. At least once and not at all are complementary events. Probability of at least one is 1 minus the
probability of none.

 FORMULA

Probability of "At Least One"

 SUMMARY

The complement of an event consists of all the outcomes that aren't in that particular event. The
probability of a complement of an event is 1 minus the probability of the original event. Remember that
sometimes it's easier to calculate the probability of the complement and then subtract from one--like
in the coin flipping example--than it is to calculate the probability that's being asked for directly.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Complement of an Event
All outcomes not in the given event.

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  FORMULAS TO KNOW

Complement of an Event

Probability of "At Least One"

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Overlapping Events
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will explain overlapping and non-overlapping events. Our discussion breaks down as
follows:

1. Overlapping Events
2. Non-Overlapping Events
3. Using a Venn Diagram

1. Overlapping Events
Overlapping events refers to two events that can both occur at the same time. Let's look at an example.

In picking a card from a deck, you might pick a six, or you might pick a diamond. You might also pick a six of
diamonds, which has both the characteristics of being a six and a diamond.

The events six and diamond are considered overlapping events. The event six has four outcomes. The event
diamond has 13 outcomes. There's at least one outcome that's the same for both of them. The event six and
diamond can happen at the same time if you pick the six of diamonds.

 TERM TO KNOW

Overlapping Events
Two events that can occur in a single trial of a chance experiment

2. Non-Overlapping Events

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Conversely, non-overlapping events are events that can't happen at the same time. The events six and face
card, for example, are non-overlapping. If you pick a six, it is not possible to also be picking a face card, and
vice versa--if you're picking a face card, you're not picking a six.

 HINT

Disjoint and mutually exclusive are two other terms that are used for non-overlapping events. These are
both very common terms.
 TERM TO KNOW

Non-Overlapping Events
Two events that cannot both occur in a single trial of a chance experiment. If one event occurs, the
other event must not also occur.

3. Using a Venn Diagram

You can show either overlap or non-overlap in a Venn diagram.

Suppose you have these two events from spinning the following spinner.

Event A is landing on an odd number, and Event B is landing on a number larger than 4.

Venn Diagram for Overlapping Events

Event A: Landing on "Odd"

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 Event B: Landing on "Larger Than 4"

If you're landing on an odd number, some outcomes are also larger than 4. In a Venn diagram, you show
those as two circles that overlap.

Suppose you have these two events from rolling a die. Event A is rolling an even, and Event B is rolling a five
is event B.

Venn Diagram for Non-Overlapping Events

Event A: Rolling "Even"

Event B: Rolling "5"

If you're rolling an even, you're certainly not rolling a five, and if you're rolling a five, you're certainly not rolling
an even number. In a Venn diagram, you show those as two circles that do not overlap.

Non-overlapping events can't be independent. With independent events, knowing what happened with event
A doesn't change the probability that B will occur, whereas with disjoint or mutually exclusive events, knowing
that event A occurred changes the probability of B. In fact, we know what the occurrence of event A changes
the probability of B: it changes it to zero because B can't happen if A has occurred.

 SUMMARY

Often, two randomly selected events will be overlapping, which means they can happen at the same
time. However, non-overlapping events (also known as disjoint events or mutually exclusive events)
cannot happen at the same time. This means that if one happens, then the other one doesn't happen.

Good luck!

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 41
Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Non-overlapping/Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events that cannot both occur in a single trial of a chance experiment. If one event occurs, the other
event must not also occur.

overlapping events
Two events that can occur in a single trial of a chance experiment.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 42
Venn Diagrams
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of Venn diagrams. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Venn Diagrams
2. Complements in a Venn Diagram
3. Venn Diagrams with no Overlap

1. Venn Diagrams
Venn diagrams are an important idea in probability theory. Venn diagrams were invented by the logician John
Venn. They're useful for understanding the relationships between two different sets of objects or two
different events in probability.

A typical Venn diagram with two intersecting sets has four parts to it:

The part that is only in event A, but not in event B.

The part that is only in event B, but not in event A.
The part that is both events A and B, where the two ovals intersect.
The part that is neither A nor B--the part outside the intersecting ovals.

 EXAMPLE Suppose that in a high school of 80 students, 18 of them take statistics, 15 take
economics, and 8 students take both.

What would the Venn diagram look like in terms of the number of students that go in each of these
four areas?

The first instinct of most people is to put 18 in the statistics bubble, 15 in the economics bubble, 8 in the

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 intersection of both bubbles, and whatever is left of the 80 on the outside. That graph would look like
this:

That's not a terrible idea, but it has a few problems. Start with the innermost portion of the circle, the 8
students that take both statistics and economics. Recall that 15 students take economics. However, 8 of
those students are also taking statistics, and they fall into the middle category. Therefore, of the 15 total
students taking economics, 8 of them should be in the center category, and the remaining 7 should be in
the "economics only" category.
Apply the same logic to the other side. Of the 18 students taking statistics, 8 are also taking economics,
which means there are 10 students taking statistics only.

If there are 10 students in just statistics, 7 students in just economics, and 8 in both, this is a total of 25
students. This tells us that, of the 80 students, 55 of them are taking neither statistics nor economics.
 TERM TO KNOW

Venn Diagram
A way to compare and contrast events from a chance experiment. Two events may both occur, only
one or the other may occur, or neither may occur.

2. Complements in a Venn Diagram

We can also show complements in a Venn diagram. Complements are everything that's not in a particular
event.

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The complement of A is everything outside of the A bubble, including the part of B that does not overlap with
A.

The overlapping portion is in A, so it is therefore not part of the complement.

3. Venn Diagrams with no Overlap

Not all Venn diagrams need overlap like this. Sometimes, the two events, A and B, don't have any outcomes
in common, which looks like this:

 EXAMPLE Suppose A is the event of rolling an even number and B is the event rolling a five.
There's no overlap between the two ideas, so you can draw the bubbles as separate. In the "neither"
category would be any rolls that are odd but not five, which leaves one and three.

 SUMMARY

Many relationships between events can be represented using Venn diagrams: overlap, complements,
and not overlapping. Venn diagrams are also useful for probability. Two-event Venn diagrams, such
as the ones in this tutorial, consist of four areas: the A-only area, the B-only area, the both A and B
area, and the neither A nor B area. The total number of items can be found by adding up all the
subcategories within that event.

Good luck!

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 45
Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Venn Diagram
A way to compare and contrast events from a chance experiment. Two events may both occur, only one
or the other may occur, or neither may occur.

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"And" vs. "Or" Probability
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will explore the ideas of probabilities that involve the word "and" versus probabilities that
involve the word "or.” Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. "And" Probability
2. "Or" Probability

1. "And" Probability
In probability, sometimes you want to find the likelihood of two events happening at the same time or the
probability that two events happen consecutively. This is called joint probability, also referred to as "and"
probability. It can be expressed as either "A and B", or A and B joined by an intersect symbol. Both are
accepted notations.

A and B = A ∩ B
 EXAMPLE On the roulette wheel, suppose we want the event black and event even.

The number two is a black sector and also even. Four and six are also black and even. However, not all of
the blacks are even numbers, like 29, and not all the even numbers are black, like 12. We can list them out
to represent black and even, or B ∩ E.

All the other evens are red, and all the other blacks are odd.
In a Venn diagram, we can represent "and" probabilities with this middle section.

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 The numbers in the middle part are included in the even bubbleand in the black bubble--they're both
even and black. The other sectors fall somewhere else.
The remaining evens (12, 14, 16, 18, etc.) are all even but not black, and the remaining black numbers (11, 13,
15, 17, etc.) are black but not even.
All of the ones outside of the bubbles are either green (0 and 00) or odd and red (1, 3, 5, 7, etc.).
 TERM TO KNOW

Joint Probability/"And" Probability

The probability of two events A and B both occurring.

2. "Or" Probabiity
There are two different ways to think of an "or" statement:

Type of
"Or" Description Example
Statements

I will have chicken or fish for dinner. This says I'm going to have
Sometimes you use
chicken for dinner, or I'll have fish for dinner, but I'm not going to eat
Exclusive the word "or" to say
both chicken and fish for dinner.
"Or" either this, or that, but
not both.
Do you want to buy these shoes or those shoes?

I need a seven or a spade to win this poker hand. You could get a
seven to win, a spade to win, or you could get a card that's both a
seven and a spade.
This "or" would
Inclusive
include either this, or
"Or" Perhaps it's picture day, and you need to wear a black shirt or a button-
that, or both.
down shirt. You might wear a button-down shirt that isn't black, a black
shirt that isn't a button-down shirt, or you might wear a black button-
down shirt.

 TRY IT

Here is a between a waitress and Paul at a cafe.

Waitress: "Do you want coffee or tea, sir?"

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 Paul: "Coffee, please."
Waitress: "Would you like cream or sugar?"
Paul: "Both, please."
Notice the two "or's" here. Is the first "or" question inclusive or exclusive? Is the second "or" question
inclusive or exclusive?}}
Well, the first "or" about coffee or tea was exclusive. He's not going to order both tea and coffee. So she's
giving him a choice of coffee or tea, but not both.

The second "or" about cream or sugar was inclusive. You can have cream in your coffee, sugar in your
coffee, or you can get both in your coffee.

In statistics, "or" probability will always mean the inclusive "or". When you are finding the event of A or B, this
will mean either A, or B, or both. When you say even or black, you mean the ones that are black, or the ones
that are even, or the ones that are both black and even.

This idea of "or" actually encompasses three regions in the Venn diagram-- the region of even only, the region
of black only, and the region of both. Even only, black only, or both--all of these are in the event even or
black.

For the notation, E or B, you can also use this symbol that looks like an upside down intersect symbol (and it
is)--E union B. Union means putting them together.

A or B = A ∪ B

IN CONTEXT
Students were asked, "What is the most important thing about school?", versus their school location.
Are grades the most important thing? Is being popular the most important thing? Or is being good at
sports the most important thing? The results are below:

School Locations

Rural Suburban Urban

Grades 57 87 24 168

Goal Popular 50 42 6 98

Sports 42 22 5 69

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 149 151 35 335

How many students are in rural schools or said that grades are the most important?

This will be any student who goes to a rural school, or any student who said that grades were the
most important, or both.

Grades refers to all of the students on the top row.

Rural refers all of the students in the first column
Both grades and rural refers to the 57--the ones that said that grades were most importantand
live in a rural area.

School Locations

Rural Suburban Urban

Grades 57 87 24 168

Goal Popular 50 42 6 98

Sports 42 22 5 69

149 151 35 335

 TERM TO KNOW

"Or" Probability
The probability that at least one of two events, A or B, occur.

 SUMMARY

“And" probability requires that both conditions be satisfied so that the outcome belongs to both of the
two events A and B. The notation is the word "and," or the intersect symbol. "Or" probability requires
that at least one of the events be occurring, so either A only, or B only, or both. We use the word "or,"
or the union symbol, and we can visualize both "and" and "or" probabilities in Venn diagrams and two-
way tables.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

"Or" Probability
The probability that at least one of two events, A or B, occur.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 50
 Joint Probability/"And" Probability
The probability of two events A and B both occurring.

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Independent vs. Dependent Events
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will discuss the difference between events that we can consider independent versus
dependent events. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Independent Events
2. Sampling
a. With Replacement
b. Without Replacement
3. Dependent Events

1. Independent Events
There is a difference between events that are independent of each other and ones that we can't consider
independently of each other. Once you define one, you can figure out the other one.

Independent events refer to scenarios in which knowing the outcome of the first event doesn't affect the
probabilities for the second event.

 EXAMPLE Suppose that you did an experiment that consisted of two parts: selecting a card from
the 52 cards in a deck and rolling a die.

+
You don't know what card you're going to pick and you don't know what number you're going to get on a
die.

What if you have an additional piece of information? What if you knew that the card that you were going
to pick was the four of clubs? Would that provide any additional information about what the die was going
to be when you rolled it? No, it wouldn't, and so we can call these events independent.

Other examples of independent events include:

Rolling three dice: Knowing what happened with the first die doesn't affect what's going to occur on the

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 52
 second die, or even third die.
Flipping two coins: Knowing that one coin came up heads doesn't affect the probability that the second
one will come up heads or tails.

 TERM TO KNOW

Independent Events
Two events where knowing whether the first event occurred does not affect the probability of the
second event occurring.

2. Sampling
Certain examples need a caveat to be considered independent based on whether or not they are sampling
with replacement or sampling without replacement.

2a. With Replacement

Sampling with replacement is a sampling method where each selected item is replaced into the sampling
frame before the next trial. Using this method, an item can be selected more than once.

 EXAMPLE Selecting two marbles from a jar or drawing two cards from a deck can only to be
considered independent if you replace the first marble or card before you select the second item.

You have to put the first marble back and mix up the marbles in the jar before you select the second
one, or you have to put the first card back and shuffle the deck before you select the second one.

If the first marble or card is replaced, you can consider the two draws from the jar or two draws from
the deck to be independent. The probabilities of each draw won't change.
 TERM TO KNOW

Sampling with Replacement

A sampling method where each selected item is replaced into the sampling frame before the next
trial. Using this method, an item can be selected more than once.

2b. Without Replacement

Sampling without replacement is a sampling method where each selected item is not replaced into the
sampling frame before the next trial. Using this method, an item can only be selected once, and the
probabilities of particular events may change as subsequent trials are performed.

⚙ THINK ABOUT IT

What is the probability that you will draw a spade from the deck of cards? The probability that you get a
spade on the first draw is one-fourth because one out of every four cards are spades.

Suppose that you draw a spade the first time and do not replace it. That would be considered sampling
without replacement.

If the two events of drawing were independent, then the probability of selecting a spade wouldn't have

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 53
 changed for the second draw. However, now only 51 cards remain because you removed one of the
spades, leaving 12 spades left. 12 spades out of 51 cards is not one out of four. Therefore, the probability
of drawing a spade is not the same as it was on the first draw.
 TERM TO KNOW

Sampling Without Replacement

A sampling method where each selected item is not replaced into the sampling frame before the next
trial. Using this method, an item can only be selected once, and the probabilities of particular events
may change as subsequent trials are performed.

3. Dependent Events
In the previous case of sampling without replacement, knowing that you got a spade on the first draw will
affect the probability of a spade on the second draw. Thus, these are dependent events.

⭐ BIG IDEA

With dependent events, knowing what happened on the first event affects the probability for the second
event.
Let's explore another scenario.

 EXAMPLE Suppose you roll a die but do not look at the face. What is the probability that you will
have rolled an odd number? Well, three of the die’s faces are odd, so your probability is 3/6, or 1/2.

Now suppose that you are told that the number you rolled is a high number, and you know that 1, 2, and 3
are considered low, and 4, 5, and 6 are considered high. What's the probability now of your roll being
odd?

You know you’re limited to the high numbers, 4, 5, and 6, of which only 5 is odd. The probability of an
odd in that selection is 1/3. Knowing that it was high changed the probability of it being an odd number.

When you add this new layer of knowledge, the probability gets affected, which means that the events in
question--high number and odd number--are dependent on a die.
 TERM TO KNOW

Dependent Events
Two events where knowing whether the first event occurred affects the probability of the second
event occurring.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 54
  SUMMARY

Independent events are events where the knowledge of what happened on the first trial doesn't
change the probability that the second event will occur. Many times, independent events occur when
sampling with replacement, whereas dependent events occur if you sample without replacement.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Dependent Events
Two events where knowing whether the first event occurred affects the probability of the second event
occurring.

Independent Events
Two events where knowing whether the first event occurred does not affect the probability of the
second event occurring.

Sampling with replacement

A sampling method where each selected item is replaced into the sampling frame before the next trial.
Using this method, an item can be selected more than once.

Sampling without replacement

A sampling method where each selected item is not replaced into the sampling frame before the next
trial. Using this method, an item can only be selected once, and the probabilities of particular events may
change as subsequent trials are performed.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 55
"And" Probability for Independent Events
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will explain the rule for finding the probability of two or more independent events all
happening. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. “And” Probability For Independent Events

1. “And” Probability
"And" means that both events A and B will occur, and they're going to be independent. There are different
"and" probability formulas for independent events versus dependent events, but our tutorial today is going to
focus on independent events.

 EXAMPLE Suppose a coin is flipped and this spinner is spun, where A and D are a lot more
common than B or C

Since the outcome of the coin flip doesn't have any influence on the probabilities for the spinner, these events
are called independent. Spinning the spinner wouldn't have any effect on the probability of the coin coming
up heads, and knowing if the coin came up heads doesn't affect the probabilities for the spinner.

You can create a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes:

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There are two outcomes for the quarter, and there are four outcomes for the spinner. Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle, we know that there are 2 times 4, or 8 total outcomes. However, they're not all equally
likely.

The heads and tails each have a one-half probability, but A, B, C, and D don't all have the same probability. If
you look closely at the spinner, A is the biggest sector with 35%, followed by D with 30%, then B with 25% and
C with 10%

Since it doesn't matter whether you got heads the first time or tails the first time--the probabilities will remain
the same--you can apply the ratios down below too.

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Suppose that you did this experiment 1,000 times. You would expect about 500 heads and 500 tails if
everything went according to your expectation.

If the second group went according to your expectation, 35% of those 500 would say A, 25% of those 500
would say B, 10% of those 500 would say C, and 30% of those 500 would say D.

Ultimately, you would end up with 175 of the 1,000 that went flipped heads and landed on A, 125 of the 1,000
that went flipped heads and landed on B, etc.

But what if you wanted to know the probability of flipping heads and landing on D? This would be 150 of the
1,000, and when simplified, equals 0.15.

Is there another way to obtain 0.15?

Look at the path that you traveled to get here. You went from heads down to D. You had those probabilities of
0.5 and 0.3, and the probability of H and D was 0.15. Hopefully, what you're seeing is that these two values
multiplied equals 0.15.

In this case, it was 1/2 for heads and 0.3 for D. Multiply them, and you get 0.15.

This is a multiplication for independent events. The "and" probability for independent events, which is the

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 58
probability of independent events A and B both happening, is the product of their individual probabilities.

 FORMULA

"And" Probability for Independent Events

 TERM TO KNOW

"And" Probability for Independent Events

A way to approximate probability based on trials of chance experiments that mimic the real-life trials.
Also known as the "Special Multiplication Rule".

 SUMMARY

There is a special multiplication rule for finding "and" probability (also called joint probability) for two
independent events. The probability that they both occur is equal to the product of their individual
probabilities. Note, there is a different multiplication rule if the events aren't independent.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

"And" Probability for Independent Events

A way to approximate probability based on trials of chance experiments that mimic the real-life trials.
Also known as the "Special Multiplication Rule".

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

"And" Probability for Independent Events

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 59
"Either/Or" Probability for Non-Overlapping
Events
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will explain the rule for finding the probability of at least one of two or more non-
overlapping events happening. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. "Or" Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

1. "Or" Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

When finding "either/or" probability for non-overlapping events, we need to consider the two parts of this
term. "Either/Or" refers to a scenario in which either one or both of two events happen. However, non-
overlapping means they can't both happen at the same time, therefore, exactly one of them happens: either
event A OR event B, but not both A and B.

 EXAMPLE Suppose you have a standard deck of 52 cards. You have two mutually exclusive, or
non-overlapping events, like selecting a six and selecting a face card. These events can't both happen
at the same time. If you are selecting a six, then you are not selecting a face card and vice versa.

What's the probability of selecting a six or a face card?

Well, there are 4 sixes and 12 face cards, so 16 out of 52.

It would appear, then, that for non-overlapping events, you can calculate the "or" probability as the
individual probabilities added together.

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  FORMULA

Either/Or Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

It is important to note, however, that this formula doesn't work if you have overlapping events.

 EXAMPLE Referring back to our deck of cards, what is the probability of a six or diamond?

If you counted out all the cards that were either sixes or diamonds, you would end up with 16 out of 52
cards. However, that's not the same as adding the probability of a six (4 out of 52) with the probability of a
diamond (13 out of 52), which would give you 17 out of 52.

This formula only works for non-overlapping events.

 TERM TO KNOW

Either/Or Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

The probability that either of two non-overlapping events occurs is the sum of their individual
probabilities. Also known as the "Special Addition Rule".

 SUMMARY

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive--meaning they can't happen at the same time--then the
probability that either A or B happens is equal to the probability of A plus the probability of B. The
"special addition rule for non-overlapping events" states that the probability that either of two non-
overlapping events occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities. This is a special addition rule
because there will be a different addition rule for cases in which the events are overlapping.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 61
  TERMS TO KNOW

Either/Or Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

The probability that either of two non-overlapping events occurs is the sum of their individual
probabilities. Also known as the "Special Addition Rule".

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Either/Or Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

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Conditional Probability
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of conditional probability. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Conditional Probability
2. Conditional Probability Using Venn Diagrams

1. Conditional Probability
What's the probability of something happening if something else has already happened? This type of
probability is called conditional probability.

If you are trying to determine the probability that event B will occur, given that another event (A) has already
occurred, it is written with the following notation:

P(B, given A) = P(B | A)

This is the notation of the probability that event B occurs, given event A has also occurred -- the vertical bar is
pronounced "given".

Conditional probability is calculated with the following formula:

 FORMULA

Conditional Probability

The probability that event B occurs, given that event A also occurs, is the probability of both A and B
occurring divided by the probability of event A.
 EXAMPLE Suppose you are rolling a standard six-sided die. What is the probability of rolling a 4?

This question is not a conditional probability yet because the question is simply about the probability
that the number is a 4. To find this answer, simply find the probability of rolling a 4.

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 Of the six possible outcomes, only one outcome would result in rolling a 4.

Suppose you are told that the number you rolled was even. What is the probability of getting a 4,
given this information?

We can use the above formula that tells us that we need to divide the probability of rolling both a 4
and an even number by the probability of getting an even number. The probability of the event of
getting a 4 and an even number is just 1 out of 6; there is only one die that has both characteristics.
The probability of getting an even number is 3 out of 6.

 HINT

Notice that since the fractions have the same denominator of 6, we can simplify the fraction by
canceling the 6 and writing 1 over 3.

This makes sense if you consider the information we were given. If we knew that die was going to be
even, this narrows our choices down to only 2, 4, or 6. Of those three outcomes, only one is a 4.

 EXAMPLE In a well-shuffled, standard 52 card deck, what is the probability that a card is a face
card, given that it is NOT a red card?

The probability that a card is a face card given that it is NOT a red card can be expressed as the
conditional probability:

The probability that a card is both a face card AND not a red card is 6 over 52, as there are only 12
face cards in a deck, 6 that are red and 6 that are black (or "not red").

The probability that a card is NOT a red card is as half of the deck of cards are black (or "not red").

So the probability of a card being a face card given that it is a NOT a redcard is:

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 64
  HINT

When dealing with cards, remember that a face card is a Jack, Queen, or King.
 TERM TO KNOW

Conditional Probability
The probability that one event occurs, given that another event has already occurred.

2. Conditional Probability Using Venn Diagrams

A Venn diagram is a useful tool to visualize conditional probability.

 EXAMPLE What is the probability of getting an even on a roulette wheel? Like the example above,
this question is not a conditional probability yet because the question is simply about the probability
that the number is even. To find the answer, count up all of the even sectors.

 HINT

Notice that zero and double zero don't count as even. The evens on the roulette wheel are in two
categories: even numbers that are in black and even numbers that are in red. 18 of the 38 numbers on the
roulette wheel are even.

However, what if we want to know the probability that the sector is even, given that the sector is also
black?
This is a conditional probability statement. We can create a Venn diagram to show the relationship
between these two characteristics of even and black. Ignore any of the sectors that are neither black nor
even, and the ones that are only even without being black. Some of the black numbers are also even.

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 Of the 18 numbers that are black on the roulette wheel, ten selections are both even and black. So the
probability is 10 even black sectors out of 18 total black sectors.
We could also use the conditional probability formula which states we need to find the probability of a
sector being both even and black, which is 10 out of 38, and divide by the probability of a sector being
black, which is 18 out of 38.

 SUMMARY

Conditional probability is the probability of some second event occurring, given that some first event
has already occurred. It's calculated by dividing the joint probability of the two events by the
probability of the existing event (the one that's already happening). This formula works for all events.
This isn't a special formula that works only for independent events or only for mutually exclusive
events.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Conditional Probability
The probability that one event occurs, given that another event has already occurred.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Conditional Probability

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© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 67
Two-Way Tables/Contingency Tables
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of two-way tables, also called contingency tables. Our discussion
breaks down as follows:

1. Two-Way Tables

1. Two-Way Tables
Two-way tables are a way of showing the relationship between two categorical variables.

 EXAMPLE Suppose you had 335 students in different parts of the country and they were asked
the question, "If you had to pick one thing about school that's most important to you, would it be
getting good grades, being popular, or being good at sports?" The distribution looks like this:

School Locations

Rural Suburban Urban

Grades 57 87 24

Goal Popular 50 42 6

Sports 42 22 5

This means that 57 rural students said that grades were the most important thing. Six urban students said
that being popular was the most important thing to them. We can see the relationship between school
location and goal.
One of the most important features of a two-way table is called the marginal distributions. They are called
that because they're written in the margins. They are the row totals and column totals for the particular
categories that you have.

School Locations

Rural Suburban Urban

Grades 57 87 24 168

Goal Popular 50 42 6 98

Sports 42 22 5 69

149 151 35

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 Grand
Total

This shows that there were 149 rural students in this study, whereas there were only 35 urban students in
this study. It shows that 168 students said that grades were the most popular thing, regardless of where
they live, and 98 students said that being popular was the most important thing at school.
We also can add up all these cell values and obtain the grand total. This means there were 335 students
in the study, which we knew at the beginning, based on the way the problem was posed.
This allows us to answer some pretty interesting probability problems:

Probabilities of School Locations and Goals

What's the probability that

That would be 168 students out of 335 students, because there were 168
a student says that grades
students, regardless of where they live, that said that grades were the
are the most important
most important thing, out of the total 335 students.
thing?

What's the probability that

Isolate your view to just the 35 urban students, and you can see that it's six
an urban student says
out of those 35.
popular?

What's the probability that

Limit your view to just the 69 students who said sports, and you can see
someone who said sports
that 42 out of those 69 were the ones who were in the rural schools.
was a rural student?

 TERM TO KNOW

Two-Way Tables
A way of presenting data such that we can see the relationships between two categorical variables.

 SUMMARY

Two-way tables help you to understand the relationships between two different events, or two
different categories. You can use two-way tables to answer some pretty interesting probability
questions. Often, you use the marginal distributions--the row totals or column totals, or even the grand
total, to answer these probability questions.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Two-Way Table/Contingency Table

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 A way of presenting data such that we can see the relationships between two categorical variables.

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Conditional Probability and Contingency Tables
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover conditional probability in the context of two-way tables. Our discussion breaks
down as follows:

1. Conditional Probability
2. Tables

1. Conditional Probability
You can use two-way tables to find conditional probabilities. Recall that conditional probability is the
probability that some event (B) occurs given that some other event (A) has already occurred. The probability of
B given A is written this way:

P(B, given A) = P(B | A)

 EXAMPLE Suppose that 338 middle school students were asked which was their dominant hand.
Here the results are shown in the two-way table:

Dominant Hand

Right Left Ambidextrous

6th 99 9 2 110

Grade 7th 90 31 0 121

8th 93 11 3 107

282 51 5 338

If a student is a sixth grader, what is the probability that he or she is left-handed? To find the answer,
isolate the sixth grade row. This is a question of conditional probability: the probability of a student being
left-handed given that the student is a sixth grader, P(L | 6). The formula looks like this:

This formula shows the probability of both left-handed and sixth grade divided by the probability of sixth
grade. The probability that a student is left-handed and a sixth grader is 9 out of the 338 middle

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 schoolers. The probability that a student is in sixth grade is 110 out of the 338. This reduces to 9 out of 110.

 HINT

Notice that you can use the probabilities 9/338 and 110/338, which were both divided by 338, the grand
total. Or, you can just use the frequency from the cell for both left-handed and sixth, 9, and from the
marginal distribution in the row totals for sixth grade, 110.

The numerator would be the same as the first question; we need to find the probability of both left-
handed and sixth grade. However, the denominator is different. In this question, we need to find the
probability of a student being left-handed.

With contingency tables, you can just look at the corresponding cells and column or row totals. For the
probability of left-handed and sixth grade, the frequency was 9. For the probability of left-handed, there were
51 of the lefties. So, the answer is 9 out of 51.

 TRY IT

Using the table above, find the following probabilities.

Conditional
Questions Written as Conditional Probability Probability
Formula

What is the probability that a seventh- What is the probability that a student is
grade student is ambidextrous? ambidextrous, given they are a seventh grader?

What is the probability that a student What is the probability that a student is in eight
who is right-handed is in eighth grade? grade, given that he or she is right-handed?

2. Tables
You can use a two-way table that actually has probabilities in it or relative frequencies.

 EXAMPLE A class of 10th graders was asked if they prefer cheese, pepperoni, or sausage pizza.
The percentages are shown below: 41% of all of these kids are girls that enjoy cheese pizza, 12% of all
of the kids are boys that enjoy pepperoni, etc.

Cheese Pepperoni Sausage

Boy 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.36

Girl 0.41 0.16 0.07 0.64

0.46 0.28 0.26 1

Given that the student is a boy, what is the probability that he likes cheese?
To find the probability of a student preferring cheese pizza given that he's a boy, you can use the

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 probabilities from the marginal distributions in the column or row totals, instead of the frequencies.

Therefore, the probability that a student enjoys cheese and is a boy is the 0.05 value from the table. The
probability of the student being a boy, in this particular sample, is 36%. This reveals that there's about 14%
probability that if you are a boy, you'll prefer cheese pizza.

 SUMMARY

Conditional probability is the probability that some event (Event B) follows some other event which
has already occurred (Event A). It's calculated by dividing the joint probability-- the probability of A and
B--by the probability of the event which has already occurred. This formula works for all events, not
just for independent events or mutually exclusive events, and the data for these formulas can be
found in two-way tables.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 73
"And" Probability for Dependent Events
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the general "and" probability formula for dependent events. Our discussion
breaks down as follows:

1. “And” Probability for Dependent Events

2. Independence Revisited

1. “And” Probability for Dependent Events

In this tutorial, you're going to learn about the general"and" probability formula for dependent events. In a
separate tutorial, we talked about "and" probability for independent events, which had a special multiplication
rule where you simply multiplied the probability of each event together. This, on the other hand, has a general
multiplication rule.

 EXAMPLE Suppose there's a famous television show called "Go For Broke.” On the show, a
person gets to roll a die to determine which jar they're going to draw a colored chip from. If the chip is
green, they will win a prize, and if the chip is red, they won’t win anything.
If a person rolls an even number, they select from the A jar that contains seven green chips and 13 red
chips. Choosing from this jar gives you a decent probability to win the prize.
If a person rolls an odd number, they select from the B jar that contains five green chips and 25 red chips.
This jar doesn’t give you a very good likelihood of winning.

Roll an Even: Roll an Odd:

Pick from Jar A Pick from Jar B

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 The probability of picking a red chip depends on the die roll. That means that these two events are
dependent. The probability of picking a red chip increases if you roll an odd number versus if you roll an
even number.
Let's look at it in a tree diagram:

There's a 1/2 probability of rolling an odd and a 1/2 probability of rolling an even. However, that's where
the similarities end:
If you roll the odd, there's a 5/30 probability of getting a green chip and a 25/30 probability of getting a
red chip.
If you roll an even, there's a 7/20 probability of getting a green chip and a 13/20 probability of getting a
red.

Using the tree diagram, we can find the conditional probability of selecting a green, given you have
already rolled an odd number:

But what if we want to know the probability of rolling an odd AND getting a green chip? For this
probability, we would multiply the probability of an odd, P(Odd), times the probability of green, given odd,
P(Green | Odd).
This leads us to the general probability formula, the "and" probability formula for dependent events. It's

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 the probability of the first event times the probability that the second event occurs, given the first event
occurred.
When we multiply it all out, you end up with the following tree diagram:

 FORMULA

"And" Probability for Dependent Events

 TERM TO KNOW

"And" Probability for Dependent Events

The probability that two events both occur is the probability of the first event times the conditional
probability that the second event occurs, given that the first already has. Also known as the "General
Multiplication Rule".

2. Independence Revisited
Recall that when two events are independent, this really means that knowing the outcome of the first event, A,
doesn't change the probability of the second event (B).

So, for independent events, we can say the probability that B occurs given that we know that A happened is
the same as just the probability of B--whether or not we knew A was happening. In other words, A has no
effect on the probability of B.

What does that mean within the "and" probability formula? That means the probability of A and B is equal to
the probability of A times the probability of B given A, which we know this by the general multiplication rule.

But for independent events, probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. This formula looks
familiar. That's the special multiplication rule for independent events. The special multiplication rule is a
special version of the general multiplication rule.

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 ⭐ BIG IDEA

The special multiplication rule for independent events is a special version of the general multiplication
rule.

 SUMMARY

The joint probability of two events occurring together, either concurrently or consecutively, is equal to
the probability of the first event times the probability of the second event given that the first event
occurred. It's easiest to think about this like you're going down the branches of a tree diagram. The
general multiplication rule works for both independent and dependent events.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

And Probability for Dependent Events

The probability that two events both occur is the probability of the first event times the conditional
probability that the second event occurs, given that the first already has. Also known as the "General
Multiplication Rule)".

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

And Probability for Dependent Events

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"Either/Or" Probability for Overlapping Events
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

In this tutorial, you're going to learn about “or” probability for overlapping events. Our discussion
breaks down as follows:

1. Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

2. Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events With Two-Way Tables
3. General Addition Rule for Non-Overlapping Events

1. Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

Either/or probability for overlapping events refers to the probability of either A, or B, or both, occurring.

 EXAMPLE Consider the roulette wheel below.

What's the probability of getting an even number on a roulette wheel? This is not an “or” probability.
We're simply finding the probability of spinning an even number. Looking just in the even circle, 18
numbers are even on the roulette wheel, out of 38 sectors. Zero and double zero don't count as even.

What is the probability of black on the roulette wheel? It's the same idea. Look in the circle that represents
black numbers, it's also 18 out of 38, coincidentally the same number.

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 What's the probability of even or black? Count up the numbers that are in either even or black. You get 26
out of the 38.

Now the question is, why is the probability of E or B not equal to the probability of E plus probability of B?

When you add the probability of an even number plus the probability of a black number, you should get
36/38, but you don't--you get 26/38. The reason for the miscount is because some of the numbers were
counted twice. Some were counted as even, and some were counted again as being black, whereas we
should only have counted them once.
Which values were double counted? It was the numbers that were evenand black. You can add these
together, except you'll subtract out the things that got double counted so they are only counted once.
The double counts were the numbers that were both even and black, represented in the overlap of the
Venn diagram.

This represents the either/or probability for overlapping events: the probability of E or B is equal to the
probability of E plus the probability of B, minus the probability of E and B.
Let's illustrate this concept by boxing the probability of all even numbers and circling the probability of B
numbers.

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 Notice how the numbers in the middle got both circled and boxed. You only want to count them once. But
when we include the numbers with the E’s and also with the B’s, they were counted twice. Remove one of
those markings to only count everything once.

 FORMULA

Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

 TERM TO KNOW

Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

The probability that either of two events occurs is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the two
events, minus the joint probability of the two events happening together. Also known as the "General
Addition Rule".

2. Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

With Two-Way Tables
Let's look at another example using a two-way table, shown below. Students in the middle school were asked
about their dominant hand. Some are right-handed sixth graders, left-handed sixth graders, etc.

Dominant Hand

Right Left Ambidextrous

6th 99 9 2 110

Grade 7th 90 31 0 121

8th 93 11 3 107

282 51 5 338

What's the probability that a student is either in eighth grade or left-handed?

The probability of eighth grade or left-handed is equal to the probability of being an eighth grader plus the
probability of being a left-handed student minus the probability of both.
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Why minus the probability of both? Because you counted the left-handed eighth graders in the eighth-grade
row and in the left-hand column. We double counted those 11 students, and you only want to count them once.
Add and subtract those probabilities as shown below, and you end up with 147/338.
The other way to approach this is by simply adding up the cells that are either left-handed or eighth grade.

Dominant Hand

Right Left Ambidextrous

6th 99 9 2 110

Grade 7th 90 31 0 121

8th 93 11 3 107

282 51 5 338

You would add up all the left-handed sixth graders, left-handed seventh graders, left-handed eighth graders,
right-handed eighth graders, and ambidextrous eighth graders. These added together equal 147 out of the
total number of students, 338.

3. General Addition Rule for Non-Overlapping

Events
It’s important to note, this formula also works for non-overlapping events. Since mutually exclusive events, A
and B, can't happen at the same time, the probability that both A and B occur is zero. It's impossible for A and
B to both happen.

Therefore, when we factor that into our formula, we end up with the probability of A plus the probability of B
minus 0. When it simplifies down, you may recognize this. This was the special addition rule for non-
overlapping events. What we see, then, is that the special addition rule for non-overlapping events is a special
case of the general addition rule.

 SUMMARY

Either/or probability for overlapping events is calculated by adding the probabilities of the two events,

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 then subtracting their joint probability. The reason you subtract out the joint probability is that it is
counted in both of their individual probabilities. You don't want to count it twice; you only want it
counted once. With mutually exclusive (non-overlapping) events, the joint probability is zero, and it
simplifies down to the special addition rule, which is a special case of the general addition rule.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

The probability that either of two events occurs is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the two
events, minus the joint probability of the two events happening together. Also known as the "General
Addition Rule".

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

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Bayes' Rule
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of Bayes' Rule. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Bayes' Rule
a. Game Show Example
b. Finding a Crashed Plane

1. Bayes' Rule
Bayes' Rule is a theorem that allows us to turn around a conditional probability statement. This rule allows you
to update or revise your probabilities in light of new information. Essentially, it reverses the conditional
probability formula, allowing you to find the probability of A given B from the probability of B given A.

 FORMULA

Bayes' Rule

 TERM TO KNOW

Bayes' Rule
A reversal of the conditional probability formula that asks "given that this second event happened,
what is the probability that this other event occurred first?"
1a. Game Show Example
Suppose there's a famous television show called "Go For Broke.” On the show, a person gets to roll a die to
determine which jar they're going to draw a colored chip from. If the chip is green, they will win a prize, and if
the chip is red, they won’t win anything.
If the contestant rolls a 1 or a 2, they select from jar A, which contains nine green chips and 12 red chips.
If they roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6, they have to select from jar B, which only contains five green chips and 25 red.

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 Roll a 1 or 2: Roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6:
Pick from Jar A Pick from Jar B
Rolling a 1 or a 2 and being able to select from jar A gives the contestant a better probability of winning a
prize. Here is the tree diagram of the probabilities in this game:

Contestants have a 1/3 probability of rolling 1 or 2 and selecting from Jar A.

If they are selecting from jar A, they have a 9/21 probability of getting the green chip and a 12/21
probability of getting the red chip.

Contestants have a 2/3 probability of rolling 3, 4, 5, or 6 and selecting from Jar B.

If they are selecting from jar B, they have a 5/30 probability of getting the green chip and a 25/30
probability of getting the red chip.

By multiplying out the values on the tree diagram, we find that we get these values for the probability of
choosing either color chip from either jar:

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 ⚙ THINK ABOUT IT

Suppose you tuned in late to Go for Broke one day and didn't get to see which jar the chip came from. All you
see is that the contestant won the prize by getting the green chip.

Given they got a green chip, what's the probability that they rolled the 1 or 2, meaning they selected their
winning chip from jar A?

To answer that question, what you're actually trying to find is the probability that you would have picked from
A, given that you got the green chip. This requires the following conditional probability statement:

But recall that the "and" probability of two dependent events is the probability of one event times the
conditional probability of the second event, given the first event occurred. So we can actually rewrite this
equation:

When rewritten in this new formula, you may notice that the probability of G given A helps us to find the
probability of A given G. When we actually go through and run the scenarios, the probability of A and G was
one of the branches on the tree diagram, or 1/7.

To find the probability of G, we can see from the tree diagram that this can happen in two ways: selecting from
jar A or jar B.

Plugging in this information, the equation simplifies down to the fraction 9/16::

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What this means is that out of every 16 times you pick the green, 9 of those times it came from jar A. This is a
surprising conclusion! The probability that you would pick from jar A, given that you ended up winning, is
actually over half.

1b. Finding a Crashed Plane

Another example of when you might use Bayes' theorem is during an actual army practice to find the
wreckage of a plane.
Suppose that a plane was going from Miami to Mexico City, but then it crashed somewhere in the Gulf of
Mexico. Here is a map of the scenario:

As the map shows, the plane may have lost radio contact in one location. Therefore, because they don't know
what else might have happened with the plane, the search party might start searching in that area. However,
perhaps a few days go by, and people find debris in a different location.

Bayes' theorem allows you to analyze the probability that the plane crashed in the region where they lost
radio contact, given that the debris was found elsewhere, where the green circle is.

If that probability is low, you might choose to start searching in the green region, assuming that the plane tried
to go around the storm by going north.

The idea is that we can update our guesses based on new information.

 SUMMARY

Bayes' rule is a mathematical theorem that allows you to amend probability statements based on new
information. With this rule, you can turn around the conditional probability statement and find the
probability of A given B from the probability of B given A. Therefore, it lets you use newer knowledge
to adjust probabilities of prior events.

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 Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Bayes' Rule
A reversal of the conditional probability formula that asks "given that this second event happened, what
is the probability that this other event occurred first?"

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False Positives/False Negatives
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover false positives and false negatives. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. False Positives and False Negatives

1. False Positives and False Negatives

When tests are performed in medical scenarios, as well as many other everyday tests, the results are not
always 100% accurate. Occasionally, tests will determine one thing when, in fact, the reality is that the
opposite is true. This will result in either false positives and false negatives.

Error Description Example

When the thing being tested for is mistakenly

False A person is told that they have cancer when, in
shown to be present when, in fact, it's not
Positive fact, they do NOT have cancer.
present.

A home pregnancy test could tell a woman that

Fale When the thing being tested for is mistakenly
she's NOT pregnant when, in fact, she actually is
Negative shown to be absent and, in fact, it is present.
pregnant.

How common are errors like this? It depends largely on the tests because different tests have varying levels
of accuracy and sensitivity.

Most home pregnancy tests claim to be 99% effective at detecting pregnancy, which means that 99% of the
time, these tests accurately detect a pregnancy when it's present and when the test has been conducted
properly.

However, what if the woman does the test too early? Tests done too soon can reduce the effectiveness to
around 90%, which means that the probability of a false negative--where the test says that she's not pregnant
when really she is--raises to about a 10% likelihood, which is a significant amount. It would be better to have
the false negative be closer to something like 1%, as the test claims.

False positives are typically more rare. Because these home pregnancy tests detect particular hormones, it's
tough for the test to detect those hormones when they aren’t really there. Therefore, when a woman is not
pregnant, a test will show this in about 98% of those cases, which means the false positive rate (a not-
pregnant woman getting a positive pregnancy test result) is about 2%.

IN CONTEXT

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 Suppose that there are 1000 women, 60% of whom are pregnant and 40% of whom are not. That
would mean that there are 400 not-pregnant women and 600 pregnant women. Suppose that all
1000 women took these pregnancy tests.

Of those 600 women, 90% would be correctly told that they were pregnant. These would be women
who are going to have a baby and know it. The false negatives would be women who are pregnant
and don't know it, so that's 60 out of 1000.

Of the 400 women who aren't pregnant, 98% will be correctly told, making 392 who will be correctly
told that they're not pregnant and eight who will be incorrectly told that they are pregnant.

Combined, that's 68 out of 1,000 women here that have the incorrect result.

 TERMS TO KNOW

False Positive

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 A test states that some condition is present when, in fact, the condition is absent.

False Negative
A test states that some condition is absent when, in fact, the condition is present.

 SUMMARY

False positives and false negatives are an inevitable part of a testing process. When something's not
100% effective, errors are inevitable. The goal is to try to reduce the frequency of error rates if we can.
Both types of errors are fairly rare in most cases, although when tests are conducted properly,
likelihood of those errors will decrease.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

False-Negative
A test states that some condition is absent when, in fact, the condition is present.

False-Positive
A test states that some condition is present when, in fact, the condition is absent.

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Paradoxes
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of statistical paradoxes. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Paradoxes
2. Benford’s Law
3. Exponential Growth
4. Simpson's Paradox

1. Paradoxes
Paradoxes are apparent contradictions in what you see versus what you expected to see. Specifically, the one
that we're going to talk about in this tutorial is called Benford's Law, covered in the next section.

Statistics allows us to draw conclusions about things that we see. Sometimes, though, the phenomena that we
see are counter to what we thought would happen. These seeming contradictions are called paradoxes. If we
understand them better, we can improve as statistical thinkers.

 EXAMPLE Suppose that you were going to create a phony checking account and you wanted to
set it up so that you could steal some money from people. To do so, you would need to create a
checking account number for this phony account. For your fake account number, would it matter what
number you selected as the first number?

You probably think that, no, it really wouldn't matter which number you choose as the first in your fake
account number. All the numbers one through nine are equally likely to be selected for the first
number, so if the account number is randomly selected, it wouldn’t really matter which number you
selected first. That's your intuition.

However, your intuition that all the numbers 1-9 are equally likely to be selected for the first number is
actually wrong. What's really the case is that checking account numbers are most likely to start with 1.
In published data, checking account numbers and many other kinds of numbers are most likely to start
with 1.
 TERM TO KNOW

Paradox
An apparent contradiction between what our intuition tells us, and what is true in reality.

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2. Benford’s Law
Benford's Law, also called the First Digit Law, says that the first number of most any real-life data, including
financial reports, follow a pattern with the number 1 being the most likely, 2 being the next most likely, and so
on in a specific order.

This law shows that only about 10% of account numbers will start with a four, whereas about 30% will start
with a one.

Digit Likelihood

1 30.1%

2 17.6%

3 12.5%

4 9.7%

5 7.9%

6 6.7%

7 5.8%

8 5.1%

9 4.6%

People who try to steal identities are likely to use more 4's, 5's, and 6's, because they think those are the
middle. In reality, it's the number 1 that's the most likely as a lead number.

Benford examined many different sets of data, including:

The area of rivers

Populations of different countries
Constants that are used in physics
Numbers that happen to appear in the newspaper
The specific heat values of different things

Benford looked at these different values and saw that almost across the board, 1 is the most likely lead
number, 2 is the next most likely lead number, and 9 is the least likely lead number.

Data Samples 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Rivers, Area 335 31.0% 16.4% 10.7% 11.3% 7.2% 8.6% 5.5% 4.2% 5.1%

Population 3259 33.9% 20.4% 14.2% 8.1% 7.2% 6.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.2%

Constants 104 41.3% 14.4% 4.8% 8.6% 10.6% 5.8% 1.0% 2.9% 10.6%

Newspapers 100 30.0% 18.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Specific Heat 1389 24.0% 18.4% 16.2% 14.6% 10.6% 4.1% 3.2% 4.8% 4.1%

Pressure 703 29.6% 18.3% 12.8% 9.8% 8.3% 6.4% 5.7% 4.4% 4.7%

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 Mol. Wgt. 1800 26.7% 25.2% 15.4% 10.8% 6.7% 5.1% 4.1% 2.8% 3.2%

⚙ THINK ABOUT IT

Ask yourself, if the lead number follows that law, then does that mean that the second digit must also
follow that law? If you thought yes, then your intuition again led you astray. While the first digit follows
Benford's Law, the second digit does not.

Benford's Law: Expected Occurence of First and Second Digits

Digit First Digit Second Digit

0 --- 12.0%

1 30.1% 11.4%

2 17.6% 10.8%

3 12.5% 10.4%

4 9.7% 10.0%

5 7.9% 9.7%

6 6.7% 9.3%

7 5.8% 9.0%

8 5.2% 8.8%

9 4.6% 8.5%

As you can see in the image above, the second digit is approximately equally likely to be any of the numbers
0-9. There is a slight favoring of the lower numbers, but all are about 10%. The second digit has an equal
frequency.

 TERM TO KNOW

Benford's Law
A law that shows that most of the numbers that are published, regardless of topic, begin with smaller
numbers, and very few of them lead with larger numbers. The most common first digit is 1; the least
common is 9.

3. Exponential Growth
The reason for a phenomenon like the one you saw in the above examples has to do with exponential growth,
which looks like this:

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As you can see, the 100-200, 200-300, and 300-400 ranges are equally spaced. However, there are more
numbers on the x-axis that create a value 100-200 versus ones that create a number 200-300. That amount
diminishes as you move along to the right of the x-axis.

4. Simpson's Paradox
There are many kinds of paradoxes, and Simpson's Paradox is just one of them. Simpson’s Paradox is a
relationship that's present in groups but reversed when the groups are combined.

 TERM TO KNOW

Simpson's Paradox
When two sets of data are subdivided, the means for the first data set can be consistently higher than
the second, but when looked at as a whole, the mean of the second set is higher than the first.
A very famous example of Simpson’s Paradox took place in 1973. That year, UC Berkeley had a sex
discrimination lawsuit filed against them that asserted that UCB was favoring men over women substantially in
the admissions process for their grad schools. Here is the data:

Men Women

Applied Accepted Applied Accepted

977 492 400 148

50.3% 37%

As you can see, it looks like 977 men applied and 492 were accepted, which is a little over half. In contrast, of
the 400 women who applied, well under half, only 148, were accepted. In fact, the proportions are 50.3%
versus 37%.

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The difference between 37% and 50.3% is huge, which is why the lawsuit was filed. To see exactly where the
women were being discriminated against, the lawyers looked into the admissions by department. You would
expect that there would be a large discrepancy in certain departments. For this tutorial, we will look at the data
for two departments, which we are calling the Engineering and English (though the true numbers within these
departments may have been different in the real case).

Men Women

Applied Accepted Applied Accepted

Engineering 560 353 63.0% 25 17 68.0%

English 417 139 33.3% 375 131 34.9%

977 492 50.4% 400 148 37.0%

For the Engineering department, you can see that about 63% percent of men were accepted to the
Engineering department versus 68% for women. Women were accepted at higher rates to the Engineering
department. Therefore, the discrepancy was not present in the Engineering department. You might then
assume that the discrepancy occurs in the English department. However, women were accepted at higher
rates to the English department as well--34.9% versus 33.3%.

Women were accepted at higher rates to the Engineering and English departments, but much lower overall.
Examining how the men's application rates were distributed, their 63% was weighted for a lot more into the
weighted average of admissions rates versus the 68% for the women.

Only 25 of the 400 applicants to the Engineering department were women. That's not very many. Therefore,
that 68%, even though it's a high percentage, doesn't count nearly as much in the weighted average as the
34.9% does. So, the 63% is weighted heavily for the men versus the 68%, which is weighted hardly at all for
the women. This is why you see that reversal of association.

 SUMMARY

A paradox is a seeming contradiction between what you think should happen versus what's actually
happening. The First Digit Law, which is Benford's Law, is one of these paradoxes. We thought that
we would find a uniform distribution among the first digits of certain numbers that we see, but 1 is a
much more common lead number than any other. Not all numbers occur with the equal frequency as
the lead digit, which is related to exponential growth. Simpson's Paradox is an association that the
data show when you group that data in specific ways, causing the association to be reversed when
the groups are combined. There are several paradoxes like this, of which Simpson's paradox is just

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 one.

Good luck!

 TERMS TO KNOW

Benford's Law
A law that shows that most of the numbers that are published, regardless of topic, begin with smaller
numbers, and very few of them lead with larger numbers. The most common first digit is 1, the least
common is 9.

Paradox
An apparent contradiction between what our intuition tells us, and what is true in reality.

Simpson's Paradox
When two sets of data are subdivided, the means for the first data set can be consistently higher than
the second, but when looked at as a whole, the mean of the second set is higher than the first.

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Binomial Distribution
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the topic of the binomial distribution. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Binomial Distibution
2. Examples

1. Binomial Distibution
Binomial distribution is a probability distribution that follows the binomial setting. A scenario can be
considered binomial if it fits these four criteria:

1. The chance experiment has a fixed number of trials (n), with only two outcomes for each trial, denoted
as "success" and "failure."
2. Each trial is independent of any others. So die rolling, coin flipping, spinning a spinner, all of those are
independent events.
3. There has to be a fixed probability of success on every trial (p).
4. The variable of interest (what you’re interested in measuring) is the number of "successes." Typically,
this is denoted as either r or k. We will use the letter k in this tutorial.
Success is a fairly arbitrary term. It could be that losing a gambling bet could be considered a success and
winning could be considered a failure, for instance, for the casino. It doesn't really matter what you call
success and failure, as long as they are complementary events.

Also, you can rig the scenario to have two outcomes, even if there aren't technically two outcomes. For
instance, on a die, there are six outcomes, but perhaps you could call rolling a 5 a success and anything but a
5 a failure. In that case, you've rigged it so you get two outcomes per trial.

 EXAMPLE One way to look at this is following the betting of black on a roulette wheel. Recall that
there are 18 black sectors of the total 38 sectors on a roulette wheel.

Assume the gambler bets "black" four times in a row. He might win every time, which would be pretty
lucky. However, he might lose every time. The following tree diagram shows all possible outcomes for

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 betting four times on a roulette wheel.

Follow all the different scenarios:

0 Wins

1 Outcome
He might lose all four times, and that would be no fun for him. There's only one way to do that--lose, lose,
lose, and lose.

1 Win

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 4 Outcomes
He might win exactly one time as well. If you take a look above, there are four ways to do that.
Notice that all of these four branches on the tree diagram have the same probabilities on them--18/38
appears once, and 20/38 appears three times on each of these four branches.

2 Wins

6 Outcomes
He could also win twice. There are six ways to do that. He could win twice in a row, then lose twice in a
row or he could lose-win, lose-win. Notice that regardless of which yellow branch you travel, 18/38
appears twice, and 20/38 appears twice.

3 Wins

4 Outcomes
They might also win three times. If you can see what we're going for--18/38 appears three times and 20/38
appears once. That happens on four branches of the tree diagram.

4 Wins

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 1 Outcome
Finally, the most fun scenario for the gambler: four wins. Now, 18/38 appears four times, and 20/38
doesn't appear at all, but that only happens one way.
Let's summarize all of this in a probability distribution.

Number of
Probability Explanation
Wins

Zero wins only happened once. On that branch, 20/38 appeared four times in a
0
row and 18/38 did not appear at all.

1 win happened four times. On each of those four branches, 20/38 appeared
1
three times and 18/38 appeared once.

2 wins happend six times. On each of those six branches, 20/38 appeared
2
twice and 18/38 appeared twice.

3 wins happened four times. On each of those four branches, 18/38 appeared
3
three times and 20/38 appeared once.

4 wins only happened once. On that branch, 18/38 appeared four times in a row
4
and 20/38 did not appear at all.

Look at the similarities and differences within these boxes. They all have the number of ways that these
events happened: 0 wins happens once, 1 win happens four times, etc. In addition, they all have an 18/38.
The first one (zero wins) has 18/38 to the 0 power. One win has 18/38 to the first power, two wins has
18/38 to the second power, and so on. Notice that's the same 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 as the number of wins. So,
trying to find the number of "k" wins, it will be 18/38 to the power of k.
You may also notice a pattern with the probability of losses. With four turns, or trials, one win had three
losses; two wins had two losses, three wins had one loss, etc. You may notice that the wins and losses in
each turn add up to the total number of trials. We can say that if there are "k" success in "n" trials, this
means there are "n-k" failures.
Based on these similarities, there is a way to calculate the probability of winning a certain number of games.

 FORMULA

Binomial Distribution
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 Binomial Distribution

The formula is denoted as: "n, choose k" times the probability of success to the power of k (which means you
want to succeed k times out of n times), times the probability of failure (1 minus p) to the power of the rest of
the trials that weren't successes, n minus k.

"N, choose k" is sometimes notated subscripted nCk. It's a number of ways to achieve k successes out of n
trials. One way to find this amount is by creating a tree diagram and counting up the number of ways.
However, if you're using a calculator, most calculators use the command nCr.

 TERM TO KNOW

Binomial Distribution
The distribution of the number of successes that occur within n independent trials of a chance
experiment with two outcomes per trial and p probability of success per trial.

2. Example
 TRY IT

What's the probability the gambler breaks even on four turns, meaning he wins twice and loses twice?

Using the binomial distribution formula, we need to find k, n, and p and substitute in these values.

In four trials, 18/38 is the probability of winning. We knew from our tree diagram that there were six
possible ways, which is equivalent to "4, choose 2". Put all those values in, and you get about a 37%
chance of breaking even.

 TRY IT

Five dice are rolled. What's the probability of obtaining no more than one 5. Now, no more than one 5
could be either zero 5's or one 5. What you need to actually do this time is find the probability that you
get no 5's, and add it to the probability that you get exactly one 5.

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 The probability of getting exactly zero 5s is 0.402.

The probability of getting exactly one 5 is 0.402.

As it turns out, just by sheer coincidence, they're the same number. So, the combined probability of
getting no more than one 5 is 0.804.

 SUMMARY

Binomial distribution is a probability distribution that follows the binomial setting. There are four parts:
a fixed number of trials, two outcomes for trial, a fixed probability of success, and independent trials.
You can find the probability of a given number of successes using the formula or a calculator.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Binomial Distribution
The distribution of the number of successes that occur within n independent trials of a chance
experiment with two outcomes per trial and p probability of success per trial.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Binomial Distribution

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Geometric Distribution
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

In this tutorial, you're going to learn about the geometric distribution. Our discussion breaks down as
follows:

1. Geometric Distribution

1. Geometric Distribution
The geometric distribution is somewhat similar to the binomial distribution. It's a probability distribution with a
particular setting; it has a geometric setting.

A scenario or an experiment can be considered geometric if it fits the following four criteria:

1. Every trial of the chance experiment only has two outcomes: success or failure.
2. Every trial has to be independent of each other, which means that the result of one trial doesn't affect
the probabilities for any other.
3. You need a fixed probability of success on every trial (p).
4. The variable of interest--what you're looking to measure--is the number of trials needed in order to
achieve your first success.

 HINT

Success is fairly arbitrary, just like with the binomial. You can rig an experiment to make it two outcomes,
even if there's not. For instance, on a die, you could say rolling a one is a success, and everything else is a
failure. Even though there are six possible outcomes with rolling a die, you can rig it so that one event
counts as a success and some event counts as a failure. The only requirement is that these two be
complementary events.
You can liken this to the lottery because you're only going to play until you win. You essentially play and lose
all the way up until you win, and then you stop.

 EXAMPLE Suppose a soda company is running a promotion called Lucky 7, where people can win
free bottles of soda by looking under the cap. They advertise one in seven wins, and what they mean
is that one out of every seven bottles has caps that say "winner" on them.
What's the probability that a person playing will win within his first three trials? Assume that this person
also stops once he wins.
The three ways that he can win within the first three trials are:
Win on the first trial
Lose on the first trial, win on the second trial

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 Lose on the first trial, lose on the second trial, and win on the third trial.

The only thing you don't want to have happened is for him to lose, lose, and lose. You can look at this in a
tree diagram.

By looking at this tree diagram, you can see that the probability that he wins on the first trial, where x is the
trial that he wins on, is 1/7. The probability that he wins on the second trial is 6/7 times 1/7 for this branch
on the tree diagram. Then the probability that he wins on the third trial is 6/7 times 6/7 times 1/7.
To find the probability that he wins within the first three trials, you take all these values and add them
together.

The probability that the person will win within the first three trials is 37%.
How do these calculations differ? Notice, every time there's a 1/7 representing the fact that he won.
However, every subsequent value, there's another 6/7 fraction introduced into the calculation.
You can actually come up with a formula here to find the probability for the first success in a trial.

 FORMULA

Geometric Distribution

If the geometric distribution is appropriate and x is the number of trials until you get a success, then the
probability that it takes you exactly k trials to obtain a success probability of success is p. You only do that
once.

You fail every time except for the last time when you succeed.

 TERM TO KNOW

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 Geometric Distribution
A probability distribution of the number of independent trials of a chance experiment it will take until a
success. The criteria for a distribution to be geometric are (1) The chance experiment must only have
two outcomes (success/failure) per trial, (2) the trials must be independent, (3) there must be a fixed
probability of success for each trial, and (4) the variable of interest is the number of trials needed to
obtain a "success" for the first time.

 SUMMARY

Geometric probability follows the geometric setting. There are two outcomes per trial, success and
failure. There is a fixed probability of success on each trial, and each trial has to be independent of
each other. This time, instead of how many successes, you know you’re only going to succeed once.
You’re interested in how many trials it takes to do that. When that's the case, the probability that it
requires any particular number of trials can be found by multiplying the probability of failure together
by all the trials except one of them, the last one, and multiplying by the probability of success the one
time. Typically, these values are found on a calculator, although they can be found on a tree diagram.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Geometric Distribution
A probability distribution of the number of independent trials of a chance experiment it will take until a
success. The criteria for a distribution to be geometric are (1) The chance experiment must only have two
outcomes (success/failure) per trial, (2) the trials must be independent, (3) there must be a fixed
probability of success for each trial, and (4) the variable of interest is the number of trials needed to
obtain a "success" for the first time.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Geometric Distribution

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Poisson Distribution
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial is going to teach you about the Poisson distribution, which is a special case of the
binomial distribution. Our discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Poisson Distribution

1. Poisson Distribution
Suppose you have a particularly busy intersection. That intersection averages about 4.3 accidents per week.
Now, that's not a whole lot of accidents per week for a busy intersection with a lot of cars passing through it.
The probability of having an accident at that intersection is fairly small. All other things being equal, what's the
probability that the intersection experiences a week with just one accident?

This distribution can be solved using something called the Poisson distribution. It's a distribution that works
well for rare events--rare meaning the probability of success is very low, but the number of trials is very high.
Out of a very large number of trails, you end up with only a few successes.

The Poisson distribution is nice because it doesn't require the use of n and p--all you need is the typical rate
of occurrence and the number of events that you are anticipating to occur during this time frame. The
following formula demonstrates this relationship:

 FORMULA

Poisson Distribution

If the average number of successes in a given time frame is the Greek letter lambda and x is the number of
potential successes that you could have, the probability that you get exactly k successes is equal to lambda to
the k--the expected number to the number of successes--times the number e to the negative lambda divided
by k factorial.

 HINT

Recall that the number e is also known as Euler's number. It is an irrational number, meaning it cannot be
written as a simple fraction. When using this formula, there should be a button for e on your calculator that
you can easily use.
So, k factorial (k followed by the exclamation point) means that you start from k and multiply by k minus 1, k

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minus 2, all the way down to 1. That means that 4 factorial would be 4 times 3 times 2 times 1.

Going back to our busy intersection example, lambda--the expected rate of occurrence--was 4.3. The number
of successes that you wanted this week was 1.

Simplify it out, and you get 0.058, meaning there's about a 6% chance of just one accident.

 HINT

If you had chosen zero accidents, which you could have calculated, the 0 factorial is 1. This is something
to be aware of: The 0 factorial is 1.

 TRY IT

On an average day, 5 iPhone owners under warranty have a hardware failure. What is the likelihood that
tomorrow 6 owners experience failure?

The probability that six iPhone owners will experience a hardware failure is about 15%.
 HINT

When evaluating this problem, 6! is the same as 6 • 5 • 4 • 3 • 2 • 1, which equals 720.

 TERM TO KNOW

Poisson Distribution
A distribution used to calculate the probability of a given number of events happening in a fixed
interval when the events occur independently and the average rate of occurrence is known

 SUMMARY

The Poisson distribution gives probabilities from situations that arise from rare events. The number of
trials, n, is high, and p, the probability of success, is low. If you know the average rate of occurrence,
you can figure out the probability of some exact number of successes.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

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  TERMS TO KNOW

Poisson Distribution
A distribution used for rare events. It can find the probability of exactly a certain number of successes
within a given timeframe, assuming that events occur independently.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Poisson Distribution

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Normal Distribution Approximation of the
Binomial Distribution
by Sophia

 WHAT'S COVERED

This tutorial will cover the normal distribution approximation of the binomial distribution. Our
discussion breaks down as follows:

1. Binomial Distribution
2. Normal Distribution Approximation of the Binomial Distribution

1. Binomial Distribution
First, let's review the binomial distribution itself:

Using that formula, you can create a probability distribution for all the values of k: zero successes, one
success, two successes, all the way up to n successes.

k 0 1 2 3 ... n

P(X = k)

That can be made into a histogram, where the x-axis represents the values of k, the number of successes; and
the y-axis is the relative frequency of those successes. Each bucket for the values of k go up to the height
corresponding to the probability.

Just like all distributions, that histogram is going to have a mean and a standard deviation. The mean is fairly
obvious to calculate.

 EXAMPLE Suppose you rolled a die six times. How many threes would you expect? What if you

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 rolled it 60 times or 600 times? How many threes would you expect?

What you should be thinking is if you rolled it six times, you'd expect one of those six rolls to be a
three. If you rolled it 60 times you'd expect about 10 threes. If you rolled it 600 times, you'd expect
about 100 threes.

You were multiplying by 1/6 because 1/6 was the probability (1/6 of six is one). Therefore, 60 times 1/6,
which is the probability of a three, gives you 10 as the expected value.

⭐ BIG IDEA

The average, or the expected value, is going to be the number of trials times the probability of success.
For a binomial distribution, we can identify the mean, standard deviation, and variance:

 FORMULA

Mean of a Binomial Distribution

Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution

Variance of a Binomial Distribution

2. Normal Distribution Approximation of the

Binomial Distribution
Every distribution has three key features:

1. Center
2. Spread
3. Shape

You just dealt with center and spread by finding the mean and the standard deviation.

 FORMULA

Center of a Binomial Distribution

Spread of a Binomial Distribution

But what about the shape? Shape of this distribution is affected by two things: both n and p.

Look at the following distributions for a high, low, and middle probability. Notice how the distribution changes
as the probability changes and number of trials change.

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 High Probability
p = 0.90

Number of Trials Distribution

10

100

When the probability of success is very high, the distribution is skewed very heavily to the left when the
number of trials is low. But as the number of trials increases, the distribution is nearly symmetric. It's a little
skewed to the left, but not heavily skewed as with the lower number of trials.

Low Probability
p = 0.15

Number of Trials Distribution

10

100

When the probability of success is very low, the distribution is skewed very heavily to the right when the
number of trials is low. But as the number of trials increases, the distribution is now only slightly skewed to the
right.

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 High Probability
p = 0.50

Number of Trials Distribution

10

100

When the probability of success is in the middle, near 0.50, the distribution becomes nearly symmetric when
the number of trials is low. As the number of trials increases, the distribution stays symmetric.

That's what you should see when we look at the normal distribution approximation of the binomial
distribution.

⭐ BIG IDEA

When n is high, the distribution is approximately normal. The only exceptions are when the value of p is
very low or very high. When n is low, the skew, if any, is more prominent.
This is a critical concept. This means that when you have a large number of trials, the distribution of binomial
probabilities is nearly normal, with the mean of what you found the mean to be, and standard deviation of
what you found the standard deviation to be. Ultimately what you're finding is the binomial distribution with
parameters n and p--which is what makes the binomial look like what it looks like--looks a lot like the normal
distribution with that mean and that standard deviation.

The distribution has to be large enough to satisfy these two conditions:

1. The mean, np, has to be at least 10.

2. The expected number of failures, nq, has to be at least 10.

This means that you had to be far enough off of the left-hand side and far enough off the right-hand side.
When you had that distribution, it looked normal when you were safely in the middle of the distribution, and
not near the very ends. These two conditions have to be satisfied. This makes looking at a lot of these
problems much easier.

 EXAMPLE Suppose a baseball player gets a hit 28% of the time when he comes to bat. What’s the
probability that he gets over 30 hits in his next 95 at bats?

Using the old way, you would have to find the probability that he gets exactly 31 hits, plus the

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 probability that he gets exactly 32, all the way up to the probability that he gets exactly 95 hits. But if
you completed all 65 calculations, you would get a probability of 0.185, or 18.5%.

The new way uses the normal approximation. First, check to see if the distribution is large enough to
satisfy the two conditions above. We know there are 95 trials, the probability of success is 0.28, and the
probability of failure is 1 minus 0.28, or 0.72.

Both conditions are satisfied, np and nq are both bigger than 10. We can now find the mean and standard
deviation.

Using the mean of 26.6 and a standard deviation of 3.763, the normal distribution, or the binomial
distribution, is going to look very much like this and we can find the probability of hitting over 30 hits.

Based on this normal distribution, calculate out a z-score and use a z-table to find the probability that way.

This is almost the same as what you would get if you used the binomial calculations.
 TERM TO KNOW

Normal Distribution Approximation of the Binomial Distribution

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 If a random variable has a binomial distribution, the number of trials is sufficiently large, and the
probability of success is not too close to 0 or 1, the variable's distribution can be approximately
modeled using a normal distribution.

 SUMMARY

The normal distribution is a good approximation for the binomial under certain conditions: n has to be
large, and p has to be not too extreme, meaning not too high and not too low. You can use the mean
and standard deviation of the binomial as the mean and standard deviation for the normal, and use z-
scores to find the probabilities. This simplifies the problem.

Good luck!

Source: Adapted from Sophia tutorial by Jonathan Osters.

 TERMS TO KNOW

Normal Distribution Approximation of the Binomial Distribution

If a random variable has a binomial distribution, the number of trials is sufficiently large, and the
probability of success is not too close to 0 or 1, the variable's distribution can be approximately modeled
using a normal distribution.

 FORMULAS TO KNOW

Center of a Binomial Distribution

Mean of a Binomial Distribution

Spread of a Binomial Distribution

Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution

Variance of a Binomial Distribution

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Terms to Know
"And" Probability for Independent Events
A way to approximate probability based on trials of chance experiments that mimic the real-
life trials. Also known as the "Special Multiplication Rule".

"Or" Probability
The probability that at least one of two events, A or B, occur.

And Probability for Dependent Events

The probability that two events both occur is the probability of the first event times the
conditional probability that the second event occurs, given that the first already has. Also
known as the "General Multiplication Rule)".

Bayes' Rule
A reversal of the conditional probability formula that asks "given that this second event
happened, what is the probability that this other event occurred first?"

Benford's Law
A law that shows that most of the numbers that are published, regardless of topic, begin
with smaller numbers, and very few of them lead with larger numbers. The most common
first digit is 1, the least common is 9.

Binomial Distribution
The distribution of the number of successes that occur within n independent trials of a
chance experiment with two outcomes per trial and p probability of success per trial.

Complement of an Event
All outcomes not in the given event.

Conditional Probability
The probability that one event occurs, given that another event has already occurred.

Continuous Probability Distribution

A probability distribution where probabilities are related by a mathematical function, and
the outcomes can take any value within a given range.

Dependent Events
Two events where knowing whether the first event occurred affects the probability of the
second event occurring.

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 Discrete Probability Distribution
A probability distribution with only so many values. The probabilities can be listed in a table
alongside the potential outcomes.

Either/Or Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

The probability that either of two non-overlapping events occurs is the sum of their
individual probabilities. Also known as the "Special Addition Rule".

Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

The probability that either of two events occurs is equal to the sum of the probabilities of
the two events, minus the joint probability of the two events happening together. Also
known as the "General Addition Rule".

Event
An outcome or set of outcomes.

Expected Value
The long-term average value taken by the outcomes from a chance experiment. It does not
need to be one of the possible outcomes.

Experimental Probability/Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method

A way of assigning probabilities that states that the probability of an event is equal to the
number of times it has occurred in identical trials of a chance experiment, divided by the
number of trials of the chance experiment.

False-Negative
A test states that some condition is absent when, in fact, the condition is present.

False-Positive
A test states that some condition is present when, in fact, the condition is absent.

Fundamental Counting Principle

If chance experiment A has m possible outcomes for one trial, and chance experiment B
has n possible outcomes for its trial (independent of the first trial), then there are mxn
potential outcomes when A and B are done together.

Geometric Distribution
A probability distribution of the number of independent trials of a chance experiment it will
take until a success. The criteria for a distribution to be geometric are (1) The chance
experiment must only have two outcomes (success/failure) per trial, (2) the trials must be
independent, (3) there must be a fixed probability of success for each trial, and (4) the

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 variable of interest is the number of trials needed to obtain a "success" for the first time.

Independent Events
Two events where knowing whether the first event occurred does not affect the probability
of the second event occurring.

Joint Probability/"And" Probability

The probability of two events A and B both occurring.

Law of Averages/Gambler's Fallacy/Gambler's Ruin

A misapplication of the Law of Large Numbers, where people try to apply long-run
probabilities to short-run events. The false "Law of Averages" is not a mathematical
phenomenon, but rather a psychological trick people play on themselves to convince
themselves that favorable outcomes are about to occur, using past behavior to influence
their reasoning.

Law of Large Numbers

A mathematical rule that states that as the number of trials of a chance experiment increase,
the experimental probability of an event becomes closer to the true probability of that
event.

Non-overlapping/Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events that cannot both occur in a single trial of a chance experiment. If one event
occurs, the other event must not also occur.

Normal Distribution Approximation of the Binomial Distribution

If a random variable has a binomial distribution, the number of trials is sufficiently large, and
the probability of success is not too close to 0 or 1, the variable's distribution can be
approximately modeled using a normal distribution.

Odds
A ratio relating the number of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes (odds in favor)
or vice-versa (odds against). Odds are usually expressed in simplest integer terms (eg 2:1,
not 0.5:1 or 4:2).

Outcome
The singular result of a chance experiment.

Paradox
An apparent contradiction between what our intuition tells us, and what is true in reality.

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 Poisson Distribution
A distribution used for rare events. It can find the probability of exactly a certain number of
successes within a given timeframe, assuming that events occur independently.

Probability
A number between 0 and 1 that denotes the likelihood of an event. Events with probabilities
closer to 1 are more likely to occur than events with probabilities closer to 0.

Probability Distribution
A description of the possible outcomes and their probability of occurring.

Sampling with replacement

A sampling method where each selected item is replaced into the sampling frame before
the next trial. Using this method, an item can be selected more than once.

Sampling without replacement

A sampling method where each selected item is not replaced into the sampling frame
before the next trial. Using this method, an item can only be selected once, and the
probabilities of particular events may change as subsequent trials are performed.

Simpson's Paradox
When two sets of data are subdivided, the means for the first data set can be consistently
higher than the second, but when looked at as a whole, the mean of the second set is
higher than the first.

Simulation/Monte Carlo Method

A way to approximate probability based on trials of chance experiments that mimic the real-
life trials.

Subjective Probability
Not a true probability model at all, this method assigns probabilities based on how likely an
individual feels the event is.

Theoretical Probability
The method of assigning probability to events based on the assumption that all events are
equally likely. The probability of an event is the equally likely ways an event can occur
divided by the number of possible outcomes.

Tree Diagram
A way to visualize the different "paths" that a sequence of chance experiments could take.

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 Trial
Running a chance experiment once (e.g. rolling a die, spinning a spinner, flipping a coin)

Two-Way Table/Contingency Table

A way of presenting data such that we can see the relationships between two categorical
variables.

Venn Diagram
A way to compare and contrast events from a chance experiment. Two events may both
occur, only one or the other may occur, or neither may occur.

overlapping events
Two events that can occur in a single trial of a chance experiment.

Formulas to Know
"And" Probability for Independent Events

And Probability for Dependent Events

Binomial Distribution

Center of a Binomial Distribution

Complement of an Event

Conditional Probability

Either/Or Probability for Non-Overlapping Events

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 Either/Or Probability for Overlapping Events

Expected Value

Experimental Probability/Relative Frequency Probability/Empirical Method

Fundamental Counting Principle

where is the number of ways for a specific independent event.

Geometric Distribution

Mean of a Binomial Distribution

Poisson Distribution

Probability of "At Least One"

Spread of a Binomial Distribution

Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution

Theoretical Probability

Variance of a Binomial Distribution

© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 120
© 2023 SOPHIA Learning, LLC. SOPHIA is a registered trademark of SOPHIA Learning, LLC. Page 121