Chapter 3 Section 1
Chapter 3 Section 1
Profitability Analysis
READ the Learning Outcome Statements (LOS) for this topic as found in
Appendix B and then study the concepts and calculations presented here
to be sure you understand the content you could be tested on in the
CMA exam.
This topic is the logical extension of the previous two topics. The analysis in
the previous two topics is at a more detailed level. For example, you might confirm
from a calculation of inventory turnover that there is a problem with more dollars
being lodged in inventory than is warranted by the current levels of sales. Therefore,
action should be taken before slow-moving inventory becomes obsolete inventory
or before code-dated items go past their expiration dates and have to be discarded
rather than being sold.
The analysis described in this topic might first alert you to a degradation in
return on investment (ROI). An analysis of the decomposition of ROI might lead
you to the conclusion that the firm’s assets are being underutilized, and you could
use various turnover ratios introduced in the previous topic to determine whether
the problem might be with investments in inventory or accounts receivable or fixed
assets. Thus, this chapter discusses analysis at a very high level.
51
Return on Investment
The principal objective of for-profit businesses is to invest funds into resources like
inventory and fixed assets so that the business might earn profits for its owners
to adequately compensate them for the risk they expose themselves to with their
investment. Thus, several of the measures to be discussed might be characterized
generically as a return on investment.
Recall from the previous topic, Financial Ratios, that the return on invest-
ments ratios in their various forms may be performed by analysts that sub-
stitute book value of certain assets for fair values (such as market values or
replacement cost). Specifically, analysts who use the modified investment basis
to calculate ROI or ROA believe that some components can skew the results.
These analysts remove elements from total assets or make determinations of
whether to use book value or market value for certain assets. On the exam, you
will be given book value or fair value to solve this equation. If given both, use
the book value.
Two very specific types of return on investment are described: return on assets
(ROA) and return on equity (ROE).
We approach these return metrics through a group of concepts referred to as the
DuPont model or DuPont analysis. It was conceived by managers in the DuPont
Corporation almost a century ago. That makes it one of the most enduring concepts
in the business world.
Return on Assets
Calculation of ROA in its simplest form, as shown next, uses net income and the
value of all assets.
Net Income
Return on Assets (ROA) =
Average Total Assets
The genius of the DuPont model is that the managers realized that management
must manage profitability and the investment in and utilization of assets. In other
words, ROA can be driven by increasing margins and/or increasing asset turnover
depending on the strategy of the company. Excellence in both of these areas should
result in an excellent ROA. Therefore, the DuPont managers deconstructed ROA
in this way:
Profit margin or net profit margin is the term used to describe Net Income/
Sales. In its simplest terms it describes how many cents are left out of a dollar of
sales after all expenses have been covered.
Total asset turnover or asset turn is the term used to describe Sales/Average
Total Assets. It says how many dollars of sales can be generated from a dollar invested
in the assets a firm uses in its business. As discussed in Topic 2, when a ratio involves
one account that measures something over a period of time and another account that
measures something at a point in time, the latter account value should be represented
by the average of latter account’s values at the beginning and end of the period. This
is especially important for firms that are growing or shrinking rapidly. People taking
the CMA exam are expected to average beginning and ending values of such accounts.
Many analysts offer variations on the above definitions. Some advocate omit-
LOS
§2.A.3.a ting investments in assets that are not being used in the business. Some advocate
using original cost of plant, property, and equipment rather than book value. Some
may even advocate using replacement values.
Net Income
ROE =
Average Stockholders’ Equity
However, a special case occurs when a firm has preferred stock in its capital
structure. Two metrics are appropriate in this case. ROE (as defined in the previ-
ous key box) is still meaningful. It measures the book return to shareholders—both
preferred and common. The second metric is Return on Common Equity (ROCE).
It measures the book return to common shareholders. Its definition is:
ROCE may be meaningfully compared to both ROA and ROE. Use of preferred
stock in the capital structure is really a different form of leverage. If leverage is work-
ing as intended, then ROCE>ROA and ROCE>ROE.
The DuPont model expands the ROE equation as follows:
Average Assets
Financial Leverage Ratio =
Average Equity
The CMA Exam Ratio Definitions document excludes the word “average” in both
numerator and denominator. We recommend that candidates use the information
provided in the exam question. If the exam data set permits using average figures
then use them.
Ratios
Profit Margin 4.50% 4.20% 4.47% 5.16% 4.67%
Asset Turnover 2.000 2.000 1.923 2.000 2.000
Return on Assets 9.00% 8.40% 8.59% 10.32% 9.33%
Equity Multiplier 1.667 1.667 1.651 1.250 2.222
Return on Equity 15.00% 14.00% 14.18% 12.90% 20.73%
Now let’s compare Year 2a to the first year’s results . In the second year, assume
LOS
§2.A.3.b the increase in operating expenses is to increase the number of salespeople on the
floor. This would be signaled immediately by the decrease in the profit margin from
4.5% to 4.2%.
Next, we’d be likely to compare the gross profit percentage and see that it had
not changed. That finding rules out a decrease in pricing power or increased costs
from suppliers that could not be passed along to customers.
The gross profit margin percentage is a measurement of gross profit (sales minus
LOS
§2.A.3.g cost of sales) as a percentage of sales:
Possible reasons for changes in the gross profit margin percentage include:
• Sales prices not changing at the same rate as unit costs
• Sales prices increasing/decreasing due to the intensity of competition
• Mix of products sold shifting to products with lower or higher margins
• Changes in inventory shrinkage (disappearance of inventory)
Next, the operating profit margin would be examined. The operating profit
LOS
§2.A.3.h margin is the ratio of operating profit (EBIT, as noted) to sales.
Operating Income
Operating Profit Margin Percentage =
Sales
In this case, the operating profit margin has declined from 8.6% to 8.1%;
additional vertical income statement analysis would show the change to be in the
relationship of sales salaries to sales. And, of course, there is no evidence of any
increase in sales, which suggests that the strategy of trying to provide an improved
shopping experience for the customer has not produced the hoped-for increase in
sales. Any differences in the behavior of the operating profit margin percentage and
the net profit percentage would, of course, be due either to interest expense and/or
to income tax expense. In this case, the erosion of the profit margin is due entirely
to the change in the relationship between sales salaries and sales and the related
impact on income taxes. Also, there is no change in the equity multiplier, so the
decrease in ROE from 15% to 14% is completely attributable to the decreased profit
margin coming from the increase in sales salaries.
Net Income
Net Profit Margin Percentage =
Sales
Next, let’s look at Year 2b, and assume those were the results for the second year. In
this version of the second year, the profit margin remained nearly constant. However,
there was a decrease in the asset turnover. Using ratios such as days of sales outstand-
ing, inventory turnover, and fixed asset turnover, it’s easy to ascertain that the problem
is a significant increase in accounts receivable at year-end without a corresponding
increase in the level of sales. Almost all of the decrease in ROA from 9% to about 8.6%
was attributable to a decrease in the collection of accounts receivable. Again, there was
hardly any change in the equity multiplier. Therefore, the decrease in ROE from 15%
to about 14.2% was the consequence of the receivables collection problem.
Now let’s do a comparison of Alpha’s first year in relation to that of competitor
Beta. At first blush, Beta may appear to be the better performer of the two com-
panies because it has the higher profit margin (almost 5.2% compared to 4.5% for
Alpha). However, comparing the gross profit margin percentages and the oper-
ating margin percentages shows the two companies to be operating identically.
The real difference is in how the two managements choose to finance their com-
panies. Alpha has used leverage, and Beta has not. Therefore, Alpha has interest
expense in its income statement and Beta does not. That is the real difference in
the profit margins of the two companies and in their ROAs. The asset turnovers
are identical. Beta, of course, must maintain additional equity in its balance sheet
to make up for the absence of borrowed money. However, when we direct our
attention to the ROEs, the tables are turned. Beta has the smaller equity multiplier
and the smaller ROE (12.9% versus 15%).
Both companies have been illustrated as having the same level of sales and
assets. If they were not the same, the ratio comparisons of companies of different
scale would be valid because the ratios make them comparable by removing the
effect of scale differences. The illustrations use companies of the same sales lev-
els simply to make it easier to immediately identify the source of the problem. It
should also be pointed out that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for
Alpha is likely lower than that for Beta. Prudent use of debt in the capital structure
usually reduces the cost of capital due to the tax deductibility of interest expense.
In some sense, you can think of it as the U.S. Government subsidizing a firm’s
borrowings. However, remember that the party that holds that debt is being taxed
on its interest income. The lower cost of capital makes it likely that Alpha does a
better job of creating shareholder value.
Finally, consider one other competitor of Alpha, Gamma Co. Gamma’s profit
margin is a tiny bit better than Alpha’s. With the same value of the asset turnover,
Gamma’s ROA is also a tiny bit better than Alpha’s. However, the real difference
comes from the equity multiplier (2.222 for Gamma versus 1.667 for Alpha). That
results in a 20.7% versus 15% ROE advantage for Gamma over Alpha. What accounts
for this large difference? There is an item called “Accrued Rent Payable” on Gamma’s
balance sheet that does not appear on Alpha’s. Gamma has negotiated lower front-
end rent payments and higher back-end rent payments to its landlords for stores
leased under operating leases. The ASC requires that uneven rental payments in an
operating lease should be recognized on a straight-line basis unless some other basis
is more appropriate. Gamma needs to accrue rental expense in excess of its lower
front-end rental payments in order to even out the payments on a straight-line basis.
When the lower payment provision expires and higher rents are required, the accrued
rent payable amounts will be released as an offset to the higher latter-year lease pay-
ments. This has exactly the same effect as accounts payable (A/P). Every dollar of
either A/P or accrued rent payable is a dollar of “free” financing; it will reduce the
amount of “expensive” financing the company would have to get from either credi-
tors or shareholders.
To summarize the discussion to this point, when Alpha uses DuPont analysis
to analyze its results over time, the analysis seems to work well. However, when a
firm uses DuPont analysis to make comparisons against other firms in the industry,
the analysis may not be as revealing and may even be misleading.
NOTE: The IMA’s CMA LOS and Ratio Definitions documents do not
directly address the information that follows. However we feel that
this information is important in understanding this variation in DuPont
analysis.
If the firm pays out dividends at a rate of 30% of earnings, for example, it retains
the other 70% (1 − 30% = 70%). The resulting increase in shareholders’ equity will
also earn a rate of return and can continue to generate growth in earnings. The
ability to take on debt grows as shareholders’ equity grows, allowing for more bor-
rowing without dangerous changes to the ratio of debt to total assets or debt to
equity. If a firm grows at a rate greater than its sustainable growth rate, it will need
additional capital from debt or equity. Unfortunately, not all firms can access the
money needed to survive in that situation.
To see why this is true, another illustration may be helpful. In this instance, we
have chosen not to use the average value of equity but the beginning-of-the-year
value for the sake of simplicity.
The firm in Figure 2A-6 earns about a 14% return on equity and pays out one-
third of its income as dividends, retaining two-thirds. This means the firm will
increase its stockholders’ equity by 10% year over year. It can “afford” to grow its
debt by 10% as well, because the ratio of total debt to equity will be 2:3 at the end of
year 1, just as it was at the beginning of year (end of year 0). This enables all assets
Year 1 Year 2
(cash, accounts receivable, inventory, and fixed assets) to grow by 10% and assumes
that A/P, an operating liability or a spontaneous liability, also grows by 10%. This
can be confirmed by preparing a statement of retained earnings:
Now consider that the firm has market opportunities that would permit its
sales to grow by 13% in the next year and remain equally profitable. All of the asset
accounts must grow by 13% to support the increased sales. A/P will also grow by
13%. Assume also that we allow notes payable to increase by 13%. Common stock
will not increase because the firm’s management does not want to issue new shares
of common stock. In fact, not issuing new shares is a part of the definition of the
sustainable growth rate. The retained earnings is calculated as follows:
This results in a capital shortfall of $9.90 in year 2, given all the above assump-
tions. How can the capital shortfall be solved? There are three methods:
1. Borrow additional money. Such borrowing would increase the principal
amount of the note payable, which in turn would increase interest expense.
However, the ratio of debt to equity would also increase; likely that could cause
an increase in the interest rate, which would be another reason for interest
expense to increase. The increase in interest expense needs to “feed back” into
the income statement, which would cause net income to fall and, in turn, cause
both the dividend to fall and the amount available for reinvestment to fall. This
would necessitate another round of changes to both the balance sheet and the
income statement.
2. Issue additional shares of common stock. However, many firms are reluctant
to do this, either because of the high costs of floating new common stock or
because their management fears that doing so sends a negative signal to the
capital markets.
3. Cut the dividend. This solution is very obvious from the formula for sustain-
able growth.
Try this simulation with other growth rates, and you’ll become convinced that
the product of ROE and the complement of the payout ratio (known as the reten-
tion ratio) is the highest rate at which sales can grow while:
1. Not changing the capital structure
2. Not issuing new common stock
Given that:
1. Profitability (as measured by the NOPAT margin) doesn’t improve
2. Asset intensity (as measured by the earlier mentioned invested capital turn-
over) doesn’t improve
Because firms that are creating shareholder value will want to grow as rapidly
as possible, ROE is a very important performance metric.
is overstated and current assets on the balance sheet are overstated. Inappropriately
recognizing revenues after they are earned will understate net income and current
assets. Further, an increase in receivables without a corresponding increase in sales
may signal problems with collections from customers.
Because merchandising and manufacturing primarily earn revenue through
sales of merchandise, the increase in revenue should correspond to an increase
in inventory. However, an increase in inventory balance without a correspond-
ing increase in sales may signal problems with inventory management. Again, the
application of ratios, such as inventory turnover, may highlight potential problems.
There is no absolute measure of “real earnings.” The income and expenses presented in
the income statement are subject to a variety of judgments and accounting methods.
The FASB holds that the entities should prepare general purpose financial
statements for external users. This requirement is necessary to keep the burden of
financial reporting costs approximately in line with costs of producing the infor-
mation those reports contain. Furthermore, financial accounting and reporting
contains considerable need for estimations. Of course, estimations can change.
Additionally companies in some circumstances may appropriately wish to change
between two or more acceptable accounting and reporting methods for a particular
type of transaction. Also the FASB from time to time issues new accounting and
reporting requirements to be integrated into the ASC (the new revenue standards,
for example). Where there is a change in accounting the usual method of presenting
the new information is via retrospective application net of income taxes. Finally,
financial reporting includes not only the four basic financial statements but myri-
ads of required disclosures that further explain accounting policies and complex
transactions. For all of these reasons, income measurement is complicated.
These factors need to be considered in measuring income:
1. Estimates
2. Accounting methods
3. Disclosure
4. Different needs of users
1. Estimates
The determination of income depends on estimates regarding future events and
their outcomes. For publicly traded companies, management makes the estimates,
which the auditors verify for reasonableness. The estimates and assumptions could
affect the measurement of income significantly. For example, the estimate of useful
life for depreciable assets affects the depreciation expense and thereby the reported
income. A generous estimate of longer useful life reduces depreciation expense,
thereby increasing income.
2. Accounting Methods
It is important to understand and assess the implications that the use of one accounting
principle as opposed to another (such as straight-line versus accelerated depreciation)
has on the firm’s measurement of income as well as how it compares to other businesses.
The accounting methods are chosen at the discretion of management, and the auditor’s
role is to ensure that the method selected is one of the many generally accepted account-
ing methods and that its use has been consistent over years. Auditors are responsible
for understanding the effect of these methods on reported income and other financial
statement measures, including how they affect the computation of ratios.
For example, two commonly used methods of inventory valuation are first-in,
first-out (FIFO) and last-in, first-out (LIFO). For the same underlying economic event,
use of LIFO, under certain assumptions of increasing inventory units and prices,
yields lower income than the FIFO inventory valuation method. Thus, a firm using
LIFO would report lower income and lower inventory value than a similar firm using
FIFO inventory valuation method. Lower income and lower assets both affect the
computation of the return of asset ratio. An analyst is required to consider such effects
of accounting policy choices on various financial ratios. The CMA exam tests the abil-
ity to evaluate and deduce the effects of various accounting choices on common ratios.
3. Disclosure
The ASC includes requirements for specific disclosures. The SEC often adds
disclosure requirements for issuers. In practice it is not unusual for companies,
including issuers, to draft disclosures that only nominally meet the ASC
requirements. In other instances companies have been known to draft disclosures
that are so dense and detailed that readers of the financial statements may be unable
to determine exactly what has been said in the disclosure.
The degree of informative disclosure about the results of operations and the
asset base of segments of a business can vary widely. Full disclosure would call for
providing detailed income statements for each significant segment. This is rarely
found in practice because of the difficulty of obtaining such breakdowns internally
and management’s reluctance to divulge information that could harm the business’s
competitive position.
The more relevant information a company discloses, the better its position will
be understood, and as a result, the stock price will more correctly reflect its fair
value. However, because it is not always in the best interest of management to dis-
close information that might be used by competitors, the level of disclosure may be
tempered, even at the expense of undervaluation in the equity market.
and its ability to earn future profits. Investors use an analysis of past trends and the
current position to project the future prospects of the business.
Creditors obtain limited return from extending credit and tend to judge con-
servatively. Creditors risk loss of capital loaned and so look for the firm’s ability to
repay both short- and long-term debt. Suppliers extend credit and must weigh their
risk of loss of income if not paid for merchandise. If, for example, a supplier sells a
product with a 10% markup, it would need to sell ten of the product items to make
up for the loss on one not paid for.
Management analyzes data from the viewpoints of both investors and credi-
tors. Management is concerned about the current position to meet obligations and
future earnings prospects. Union representatives analyze financial statements for
the firm’s ability to grant increases in wages and fringe benefits. Government is
interested in financial statements and the health of businesses for tax and regula-
tory purposes.
Topic Questions:
Profitability Analysis
Directions: Answer each question in the space provided. Correct answers and
explanations follow these topic questions.
1. A corporation has a return on equity of 20%, a return on assets of 15%, and
a dividend payout ratio of 30%. The corporation’s sustainable equity growth
rate is:
◻ a. 50.0%.
◻ b. 14.0%.
◻ c. 6.0%.
◻ d. 4.5%.
2. A financial analyst has calculated gross profit margin and net profit margin for
a company. Economists are forecasting a reduction in the corporate income
tax rate. This would:
◻ a. increase the gross profit margin and increase the net profit margin.
◻ b. decrease the gross profit margin and increase the net profit margin.
◻ c. not change the gross profit margin and increase the net profit
margin.
◻ d. increase the gross profit margin and not change the net profit
margin.
3. Two companies have identical return on assets. Company X purchased most
of its assets many years ago when prices were relatively low. Company Y pur-
chased most of its assets in recent years when prices were relatively high.
Both companies have identical debt levels and record their assets at histori-
cal cost. The return on assets ratio is most likely:
◻ a. overstated for both companies.
◻ b. overstated for Company X.
◻ c. overstated for Company Y.
◻ d. accurate for both companies.
Company X’s assets likely have a much lower balance sheet valuation than do
Company Y’s assets. This valuation is likely not very accurate since the prices are
from a long time ago. Since assets are the denominator in the ROA calculation,
the lower valuation for X’s assets means its ROA is likely overstated.