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Discrete Probability 2023 N

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21 views91 pages

Discrete Probability 2023 N

Uploaded by

Aung Zaw Moe
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Discrete Probability Distribution

If a variable X can assume a


discrete set of values x1 , x2 , ….. , xK with
respective probabilities p1 , p2 , … , pk
where
p1 + p2 + ….. + pK = 1,
we say that a discrete probability
distribution for X.
Consider, Two dice are thrown

(1,1)(1,2)(1,3)(1,4)(1,5)(1,6)
(2,1)(2,2)(2,3)(2,4)(2,5)(2,6)
(3,1)(3,2)(3,3)(3,4)(3,5)(3,6)
(4,1)(4,2)(4,3)(4,4)(4,5)(4,6)
(5,1)(5,2)(5,3)(5,4)(5,5)(5,6)
(6,1)(6,2)(6,3)(6,4)(6,5)(6,6)
Let X be the sum of score on the dice

X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(X)
Graph

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mathematical Expectation
( mean , average )
Expected number of the sum of score
Some Results of E ( X )
a and b are constant.
Expected number of getting 7 in 300 times .

Expected number of getting 7 in 300 times


Variance

Standard deviation
Some Results of Var ( X )
a and b are constant.
Cumulative Probability, F ( X )
X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(X)

F(X)
Cumulative Graph

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cumulative Graph

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Median
The median splits the area under the
curve y = f ( x ) into two halves. So if
the value of the median is m ,
Pg 75 . EX ( 4.1 ) No. 1
If X is the random variable showing the number of
boy in families with three children construct a table
showing the probability distribution of X.
Pg 75 . EX ( 4.1 ) No. 1
X be the numbers of boys in family with three children
X 0 1 2 3
P(X)

F(X)
Probability Graph

0 1 2 3
The expected number of boy
Pg 76 . EX ( 4.1 ) No. 3
Three marbles are draw without replacement from an urn
containing 4 red and 6 white marbles. If X is a random
variable which denotes the total number of red marbles
drawn,
X be the number of red
X 0 1 2 3
P(X)

F(X)
Probability Graph

0 1 2 3
The expected number of red marbles
Page 75, Ex( 4.1 ) No.4
Consider, Two tetrahedral are thrown

(1,1)(1,2)(1,3)(1,4)
(2,1)(2,2)(2,3)(2,4)
(3,1)(3,2)(3,3)(3,4)
(4,1)(4,2)(4,3)(4,4)
Let X be the sum of score

X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(X)

F (X)
Pg 77, Ex4.2 ,No.1
If a man purchases a raffle ticket, he can win a prize of
$5000 or a second prize of $2000 with probability 0.001 and
0.003. What should be a fair price to pay for ticket?

Pg 77, Ex4.2,No.2
In a given business venture a man can make a profit of
$300 with probability 0.6 or take a loss of 100 with
probability 0.4. Determine his expectation.

Pg 77, Ex4.2 ,No. 3


Find ( a ) E ( X ) , ( b ) E ( X2 ), and ( c ) for
following probability.
X 8 12 16 20 24

P(X) 1/8 1/6 3/8 1/4 1/12


Pg 77, Ex4.2 ,No.4
A bag contains two white balls and three black balls. Four
persons A , B , C , D in the order named each draws one balls
and does not replace it. The first to draw a white ball
receives $10. Determine their expectations.

Pg 77, Ex4.2 ,No. 5


Find ( a ) E ( X ) , ( b ) E ( X2 ), and ( c ) for
following probability.
X – 10 – 20 30

P(X) 1/5 3/10 1/2


Pg 79, Ex4.3 ,No.2
Two discs are draw, without replacement, for a box containing
3 red discs and 4 white discs. The discs are drawn at
random. If X is the random variable ‘the number for red
discs drawn’ , find ( a ) E ( X ) , ( b ) the standard deviation of
X.
Pg 79, Ex4.3 ,No.3
The discrete random variable X has probability distribution
shown below.
X 1 2 3 4

P(X) 3/8 1/8 1/4 1/4

Verify that Var ( 2 X + 3 ) = 4 Var ( X )


X 1 2 3 4
P(X) 3/8 1/8 1/4 1/4
Pg 79 . EX ( 4.4 ) No. 1
Fine the cumulative distribution function for the ramdom
variable where X is the score on an unbiased die.

X be the number of score

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X)

F (X)
Pg 79, Ex4.4 ,No.2
The probability distribution for the random variable X is
shown below, construct the cumulative distribution table.
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.4 0.15 0.2

Pg 80, Ex4.4 ,No.3


For a discrete random variable X the cumulative distribution
function F ( X ) is
X 1 2 3 4 5
F(X) 0.2 0.32 0.67 0.9 1

Find ( a ) P ( X = 3 ) , ( b ) P ( X > 2 )
Binomial Distribution
N = number of trials
p = probability of success in any single trial of N trials.

q = 1 – P = probability of failure in any single trial of N trials.


X = number of success in N trials.
N – X = number of failure in N trials.

This discrete probability distribution is often called the


binomial distribution since for X = 0 , 1 , 2 , ….. , N it
corresponds to successive terms in the binomial expansion
Some Properties Binomial Distribution
Pg 84 , No.10

An ordinary die is thrown seven times. Find the


probability of ( i )obtaining exactly three six.
( ii )obtain at most three six (iii) obtain exactly three
not six( iv ) obtain more than five time not six
(v) expectation of getting six (vi) standard deviation
N = the numbers of thrown the die
p = the probability of getting six in any single thrown
q = the probability of not getting six in any single thrown

X = the numbers of times of getting six in N trial


N–X =the numbers of times of not getting six in N trial
( i ) obtain exactly three six
X =3 , N –X =4
( ii ) obtain at most three six
( iii ) obtain exactly three not 6

N–X =3
7–X =3
X =4
( iv ) obtain more than five time not six
( v ) expectation of getting six
The probability that a pen drawn at random from a
box of pens is defective is 0.1. If a sample of 6
pens is taken, find the probability that ( i ) no
defective pen ( ii ) 5 or 6 defective pens ( iii ) less
than 3 defective pen (iv) expectation of defective
( v ) expectative of non defective (vi) variance
N = the numbers of pens
p = the probability of getting defective pen in any
single pen.
q = the probability of getting non defective pen in
any single pen.
X = the no. of getting defective pen in 6 pen.
N – X = the no. of getting non defective pen in 6 pen.
(i) X =0 , N –X =6
The probability that a person serves a company A is
0.6. Find the probability that in a randomly selected
sample of 8 lavourers there are ( i ) exactly 3 who
serve company A. ( ii ) more than 5 who serve copany
A. ( iii )less than 2 who does not serve copany A
(iv)expectation of serve copany A (v)standard deviation
N = the numbers of labourers
p = the probability of serve copany A in any single person
q = the probability of not serve copany A in any single person

X = the numbers of person who serve copany A in N labourers

N – X = the numbers of person who do not serve copany A in N


lavourers
( i ) exactly 3 person who serve copany A

X =3 , N –X =5
( ii ) more than 5 who serve copany A
( iii ) less than 2 who does not serve copany A
N–X <2
8–X <2
X >6
( iv ) expectation of serve copany A
Pg 84 , No.14
In a group of people the expected number who wear glasses
is 2 and the variance is 1.6. Find the probability that ( i ) a
person chosen at random from the group wear glasses, ( ii ) 6
people in a group wear glasses.

N = the numbers of people in a group


p = the probability of wear glasses in single person
q = the probability of not wear glasses in single person
X = the no. of persons who wear glasses in a group

N–X =the no. of person who does not wear glasses in a


group
The probability that a person chosen at random from the
group wear glasses is 0.2
( iii ) N – X = 3
7–X =3
X =4
Pg 83 , No.3
In a multiple choice test there are 10 questions and for each
question there is a choice of 4 answers, only one of which is
correct. If a student guesses at each of the answers, find the
probability that he gers ( a ) no correct ( b ) more than 7
correct ( c ) more than 2 correct.

N = the numbers of questions


p = the probability of correct in any single question
q = the probability of uncorrer in any single question
X = the no. of correcr answers in N questions.

N–X =the no. of uncorrect answers in N questions


( i ) no correct

( ii ) more than 7 correct

( iii ) more than 2 correct


Pg 83 , No.7
A surgical technique is performed on seven patients. You are
told there is a 70% chance of success, Find the probability
that the surgery is successful for ( a ) exactly five patient
( b ) at least five patients ( c ) less than five patients,

N = the numbers of patient


p = the probability of success in any single patient
q = the probability of fail in any single patient
X = the no. of success in N patients.

N–X =the no. of fail in N patients


( i ) successful for exactly five patient

( ii ) successful for at least five patient

( iii ) successful for less than five patient


Pg 83 , No.9
One in four adults is currently on a diet. In a room sample
of eight adults, what is the probability that the currently on
a diet is ( a ) exactly three ( b ) at least three, and ( c ) more
than three ?

N = the numbers of adults


p = the probability of diet in any single adult
q = the probability of no diet in any single adult
X = the no. of diet in N adults.

N–X =the no. of no diet in N adult


( i ) diet exactly three

( ii ) diet at least three

( iii ) diet more than three


Poison Distribution
Poison Distribution
When n is larg and p is small in a binomial distribution.

If x is the numbers of occurrences of random event in an


interval of time or space or some volume of matter. The random
variavle x has a Poisson distribution if and only if the
probability distribution is given by
Poison Distribution
Examples of events which might follow a poisson distribution
distribution:
The number of

( i ) flaws in a given length of material


( ii ) car accidents on a particular stretch of road in one day

( iii ) accidents in a factory in one week

( iv ) telephone calls made to a switchboard in a given time

( v ) insurance claim made to a company in a given time

( vi ) particles emitted by a radioactive source in a given time


A time interval

A given length

A given region

A given volume
Using the Poison Distribution as an approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution with parameter n and p can be
approximated by a poisson distribution, with parameter λ = np, if
n is large ( > 50 say ) and p is small ( < 0.1 say ). The
approximation get better as n → ∞ and p→ 0.
Find the probability that at least double sixes are obtained
when two dice are thrown 90 times. ( e –2.5 = 0.082 )

Throw two dice, P ( double sixes )


Mode of Poisson
In general , λ is not an integer, then mode is the integer
If the number of bacterial colonies on a pertri dish follows a
Poisson distribution with average number 2.5 per cm2 , find the
probability that ( a ) in 1 cm2 there will be no bacterial colonies
( b ) in 1 cm2 there will be more than 4 bacterial colonies ( c )
in 2 cm2 there will be 4 bacterial colonies ( d ) in 4 cm2 there
will be 6 bacterial colonies. ( e –2.5 = 0.082 ) ( e –5 = 0.0067 ) ( e –10
= 4.5 _ 10–5 )

x be the the number of bacterial colonies


Suppose that the probability that a certain type of inoculation
take effect is 0.995. What is the probability at most two out of
400 people given the inoculation, find that it has no taken
effect ? ( e –2 = 0.1315 )

x be the the number of people among the 400 from who the
inoculation does not effect
The expected number of people among the 1000 from who the
inoculation does not effect
In a certain region the number of persons who became
seriously ill each year eating a certain poisonous plant is a
random variable had being the Poission distribution with mean
is 2. What is the probability of at most 3 such illnesses in a
given year. ( e –2 = 0.1315 )
Solution
x be the the number of person who become seriously ill each
year from eating a certain poisonuous plant
The probability that a car will have a flat tire while driving
over a certain bridge is 0.0002. Find the probability that among
2000 cars driven over the bridge not more than one will have a
flat tire. ( e –0.4 = 0.67 )
Solution
x be the the number of car which will have flat tire while
driving over a certain bridge
The evarage car will have a flat tire while driving over a
certain bridge is 0.4 per day. Find the expected number of the
day out of 100 days when there will be ( i ) no flat tire ( ii )
nor more than one flat tire ( iii ) between 2 and 5 flat tire.
. ( e –0.4 = 0.67 )

Solution
x be the the number of car which will have flat tire

The expect no. of day which no flat tire


The expect no. of day which not more one flat tire
The expect no. of day which not more one flat tire
Flows in the planting of target sheet of metal occurs at
random. On the average of one in each section of area 10 squar
feet. What is the probability that a 5 by 8 will have ( i ) no
flows ? ( ii ) at most one flows ? ( e –4 = 0.0183 )

Solution
x be the the number of flows in the given area 40 sq ft
Failure of electron taken airborn applications have been found
to follow clearly poisson postulates. A recever with sixtten tubes
suffers. A tube failure on the average of one every 50 hours of
operating time. ( i ) What is the probability of more than one
failure on an 8 hours missin ? ( ii ) What is the expected number
of failures in 1000 hours of operation time ? ( e –0.16 = 0.8521 )
Solution
x be the the number of tube failure on the given time
A book containing 750 pages has 500 misprints. Assume that
the misprints occur at random, find the probability that a
particular page contain ( i ) no misprint ( ii ) exactly 4 misprints
( iii ) more than 2 misprints. ( e –0.67 = 0.512 )

Solution
x be the the number of misprints in a particular page
A book containing 750 pages has 500 misprints. Assume that
the misprints occur at random. How many pages which no
misprint in the book ?

The number of pages which no misprint in the book =


An insurance company recieves on average 2 claims per week
from the certain factory. Assuming that the number of claims
follows a Poisson distribution, find the probabimity that ( i ) it
recieves more than 3 claims in a given week ( ii ) it recieves
more than 2 claims in a given forthnight ( iii ) it recieves no
claims on a given days, assuming that the factory operates on a
5 days week.? ( e –2 = 0.1353 ) ( e –4 = 0.0183 ) ( e –0.4 = 0.67 )

Solution
x be the the number of claimn in the given week

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