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Russia Ukraine

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 calling it a 'special operation' while others call it an invasion. NATO was formed to counter USSR expansion and expanded after USSR fell. Putin views NATO expansion as a threat leading to the invasion of Ukraine to install a pro-Russian regime and deter other states from joining NATO.

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30 views5 pages

Russia Ukraine

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 calling it a 'special operation' while others call it an invasion. NATO was formed to counter USSR expansion and expanded after USSR fell. Putin views NATO expansion as a threat leading to the invasion of Ukraine to install a pro-Russian regime and deter other states from joining NATO.

Uploaded by

m.niazi1120
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Russia invaded ukraine of 24 feb, 2022.

Russia calls it “a speical operation” to disarm ukraine while rest of world calls it an invasion.
New York Times has termed this invasions as “largest ever mobiliztion of forces” europe has
ever seen since WW2.

History:
NATO was formed to counter the expansionist policies of USSR, during cold war.
USSR disintegrated on 26 december, 1991. There was no longer russia threat to europe, so
no need of collective security organization. During the time of unification of germany, it was
assured to russian federation, that nato will not expand, provided that russia let this historic
event happen peacefully.
1994: Budapest memorandum was signed under which Ukraine gave up its nuclear
arsenals in exchange for a commitment from moscow to respect its independence and
sovereignty (now ukraine is regretting it| it must have realized that this world is anarchic and
only realism prevails in world).
This pledge was blatantly reneged on. Altough russian president, boris yelstein, initially,
accepted NATO’s Open Door Policy, under the Founding Act on Mutual Relations 1997,
which allowd the tacit approal of NATO in erstwhile Warsaw Pact countries, but with the
eastward expansion of NATO, russia felt threatened.
In 1999, poland, hungary and czech republic , became members of NATO.
In 2004, baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), joined NATO.
Putin rose to power in 2000, and saw the expansion of NATO, as a threat to russia security.
When NATO expressed its willingness to make georgia a part of it, russia invaded Georgia in
2008, to deter other countries becoming a part of NATO.
Moscow applied same logic when it annexed crimea in 2014.

Causes of invasion:
Immediate cause:
The primary reason is the russian “charter of demands”, which it presented in front of EU,
Nato and specifically USA. Russia demanded compliance on following security concerns of
russia:
1- written guarantee that ukraine and georgia will never be given membership of NATO.
2- Those states which joined nto after 1997, nato will not deploy its military capabilities in
those states.

Historically, in the same context, when usa launched a project named “NATO Missle
Defence Shield”, strong reaction from russia came against this project. As a result of this
reaction, president Obama scrapped that project. In same context, russia is making new
demands, as mentioned above.

USA rejected those demands, as a result russia invaded ukraine.


There are also some other reasons behind invasion.

Other causes:
● Russia, led by putin, never accepted ukraine as independent sovereign state.
President putin on multiple occasions has opined that disintegration of USSR was the
biggest catastrophe of 20th century and that led to the denial of rightful place of
russia among great powers. russia considers that ukraine has historically been a part
of russia. According to New York Times, putin appears intent on winding back the
clock for more than 30 years, establishing a russia dominated security zone in East
Europe.
● Historically, russia has always felt threatened from western europe (from napoleon to
hitler). Russia has always wanted have its influence on east europe so that it can use
it as a buffer against west europe. Expansion of NATO towards east europe, is
another reason behind invasion of ukraine.
● Russia claims that people living in eastren part of ukraine are ethnic russian and
speak russian language, and to protect those ethnic russians against current regime
of Ukraine, russia wishes to invade it.
● Russia exports its energy to europe. The best way to transport energy is the transit
route through ukraine, but in previous few years, ukrainian regime has been
unfriendly to russia, which was hindering the smooth export of energy to europe. This
is the reason, russia invaded ukraine to have a russian friendly regime in ukraine.
● This invasion is a deterrence for other east european states who are willing to
become part of NATO.
● Emergence of china as a powerful counterweight to US economic and diplomatic
might also have played a key role in convincing Moscow that it would be able to
absorb the sanctions by the help of china. The joint statement issued after, Xi-Putin
meeting during beijing winter olympics, gave a clear message that world is no linger
uni-polar and the emergence of multipolar world warrants democratization in
international affairs. Later china, not only backed russia’s security concerns
diplomatically and voiced for its legitimate security guarantees, but also lambasted
unilateral US sanctions as long term jurisdiction and announced to continue to
conduct normal oil and gas trade.
●

Why western world is adamant to its demands?


● They believe their liberal ideology and think it is the sovereign right of every state to
determine its own future. As nato is open to everyone, so every state must be
sovereign to decide whether they want to join nato or not. That is why they cannot
guarantee non-membership for georgia or other east europe states who want to join
nato.
● Is west accede to russian demands, then there is a chance that if future other global
powers (india, china etc) will also make similar demand to west eg china might make
similar demands on QUAD, or south china sea etc.
● Western world (especially britain and france) have a very bad historical experience of
appeasement. In 1930s, appeasing hitler and granting hitler the control in austria,
czechoslovakia. All those appeasement measures emboldened hitler and did not
fulfill his apetite for more territory. So westren world believe that if they appease
russia on matter of ukraine, russia might demand more territories like moldova,
estonia, poland, lithuania etc.
● West believes that putins regime is authoritarian regime and through their unity
against russia, they want to give broader message to the world that authoritarian
regime is unacceptable to west.

History of ukraine and its sentiment towards russia:


Historically, ukraine existed, even before emergence of russian empire, which later absorbed
ukraine and it remained part of empire of centuries.
Ukraine had so greate antagonism against russia, that they immediately claimed
independence after Bolshevik Revolution. It remained independent for 3 years, but
communist regime soon reoccupied it.
Ukrainians were so tired of stalin’s oppression, that they overwhelmingly welcomed nazi
invasion under operation barbarosa.
After the fall of berlin wall, ukraine was the first state to claim independence from ussr, and
sought to establish close ties with west.
The popular dislike for russian influnce became clear in 2014, when mass unrest engulfed
the country in the wake of refusal of pro-moscow president, petro poroshenko, to sign as
Association Agreement with EU. This toppled, pro-kremlin regime in ukraine. Russia, in
response decided to openly back pro-russian separatists in russian speaking donetsk and
luhansk regions of ukraine.
Hence, it is because of the anti-russian sentiments in ukraine, russia has faced severe
resistance from ukrainian forces.

Chronological developments in war:


Cost of war:
Russia had to face sanctions y west

Consequences of war:
Global economy and energy: discussed in previous topics.
Increased sense of insecurity in europe:
It is because of this that EU is thinking about making its own standing army.

Threat of nuclear proliferation in world:


Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and in return demanded safety. But this invasion
shows that without nuclear weapons, small states can become an easy prey to large states.
North korea, before this war, was talking about denuclearization but after this war it has
passed that law that its nuclear program is irreversible.

Humanitarian causes: a lot of ukrainians have migrated from ukraine to other states mostly
west europe. A lot of civilians have been killed in war.

This war might turn into broader european conflict:


Ukraine demanded, nato to make ukrainian territory as a no fly zone. In other words, they
are demanding NATO to join war by protecting ukrainian air space. NATO has rejected it, but
if it happens then this war might turn into broader european conflict.

World divided into blocs:


The world is divided into 3 blocs:
-those opposing russia eg western states
-those who are taking sides with russia eg Belarus, Iran etc
-those who are non-partisan eg india, china etc.

Emerging multipolar order challenging western liberal values:


Initially it was thought that china is a threat to westren world order, but this invasions by
russia has also challenged westren world order, at least for short term.

Other authoritarian regimes might become more assertive:


Eg china might become more assertive to make anarchic conditions.

Chance of greater arms race:


Eg germany announced to double its defence budget after the invasion of ukraine.

Global economic crisis:


World was already suffering because of covid, but now due to russian sanctions global
energy crisis will emerge, which will damage developing states.
Impacts on pakistan:
Food security:

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