1 s2.0 S0360319922033900 Main

i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 7 ( 2 0 2 2 ) 3 3 5 5 1 e3 3 5 7 0
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he
Review Article
Building the green hydrogen market e Current

state and outlook on green hydrogen demand and
electrolyzer manufacturing
Mona Wappler a,*, Dilek Unguder a, Xing Lu a, Hendrik Ohlmeyer a,

Hannah Teschke a, Wiebke Lueke b
a
Faculty of Communication and Environment, Rhein-Waal University of Applied Sciences, Friedrich-Heinrich-Allee
25, Kamp-Lintfort, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
b
WEW GmbH, Konrad-Adenauer-Allee 11, Dortmund, 44263, North Rhein-Westphalia, Germany
highlights graphical abstract
Analysis of 25 hydrogen country

roadmaps and their take on green
hydrogen.
Meta-analysis of 18 studies on the
future green hydrogen demand for
2030 and 2050.
Overview of electrolyzer
manufacturing companies and
announced production capacities.
To meet Net Zero >700 GW of
water electrolysis needs to be
installed by 2030.
Increase in electrolyzer
manufacturing capacities of up to
200% needed till 2030.
article info abstract
Article history: Over the past two years, requirements to meet climate targets have been intensified. In
Received 1 April 2022 addition to the tightening of the climate targets and the demand for net-zero achievement
Received in revised form by as early as 2045, there have been discussions on implementing and realizing these goals.
8 July 2022 Hydrogen has emerged as a promising climate-neutral energy carrier. Thus, over the last
Accepted 29 July 2022 1.5 years, more than 25 countries have published hydrogen roadmaps. Furthermore,
Available online 31 August 2022 various studies by different authorities have been released to support the development of a
hydrogen economy. This paper examines published studies and hydrogen country
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Wappler).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.07.253
0360-3199/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
33552 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 7 ( 2 0 2 2 ) 3 3 5 5 1 e3 3 5 7 0
Keywords: roadmaps as part of a meta-analysis. Furthermore, a market analysis of electrolyzer
Green hydrogen manufacturers is conducted. The prospected demand for green hydrogen from various
Water electrolysis studies is compared to electrolyzer manufacturing capacities and selected green hydrogen
Hydrogen demand projects to identify potential market ramp-up scenarios, and to evaluate if green hydrogen
Electrolyzer manufacturing demand forecasts can be filled.
capacities © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications
Green hydrogen market LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/).
Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33552
Green hydrogen supply chain: current state and outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33553
Analysis of hydrogen studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33554
Analysis of hydrogen country roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33555
Water electrolyzers production: current state and outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33559
Green hydrogen projects analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33560
Electrolysis manufacturing market analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33560
Forecast of installed electrolysis capacities until 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33564
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33565
Declaration of competing interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33566
Acknowledgment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33566
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33566
Appendix A. Conversion of units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33566
Appendix B. Studies for meta-analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33566
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33567
sense, policymakers are working on roadmaps and imple-

Introduction menting programs to support the development of the green
hydrogen economy. In parallel, companies are evaluating the
Increasing concerns about climate change, shifting consumer impact of green hydrogen on their business and are identi-
preferences to ecofriendly products, the spread of renewable fying potential future business opportunities. However, by
energy, and as a result, its decreasing price have triggered new looking at its current demand and supply dynamics, esti-
trends both in politics and in industry. In 2016, The Paris mating the future role of hydrogen can be misleading.
Agreement, which sets the goal to limit global warming to This meta-study aims to assess the opportunities and risks
below 2 C of preindustrial levels, is entered into force [1]. of the green hydrogen economy until 2030. It shall help indi-
Additionally, in 2018, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate vidual players in this field (e.g., hydrogen consumers,
Change (IPCC), which has been working as a body of the hydrogen producers and plant operators, electrolysis systems,
United Nations to guide policymakers on climate change is- or (component) manufacturers) to gain an overview and
sues, published the landmark report ‘Special Report on Global evaluate business opportunities based on an examination of
Warming of 1.5 C'. This report shows the significance of country roadmaps, studies, and market research. Applying a
limiting global warming to 1.5 C above preindustrial levels supply chain view, the focus of this paper lies in the analysis
and pathways to achieve this level via reducing greenhouse of the current state and outlook of the green hydrogen de-
gas emissions [2]. As an outcome, efforts to tackle climate mand and the green hydrogen production side (esp. electro-
change have accelerated and become an important political lyzer production) (cf. Fig. 1).
agenda with solid targets for many governments worldwide. Supply chains comprise all parties involved directly and
However, reducing greenhouse gas emissions necessitates a indirectly in fulfilling a customer request [3]. It includes the
fundamental shift from the current energy system, which producer itself and other parties, like the suppliers, the lo-
depends on fossil fuels, to renewable sources. Transition re- gistics providers, and the customers. In this study, a supply
quirements in energy systems spotlight hydrogen due to its chain view was adopted to identify relevant aspects for
versatility, which leads to discussions related to building a developing a green hydrogen economy. This means that be-
green hydrogen economy. The development of a green sides the customer demand for hydrogen, production capac-
hydrogen economy is seen as a significant contributor to ities for green hydrogen and water electrolyzers are analyzed,
achieving the climate goals set by Paris Agreement. In this as they are needed to ramp up the hydrogen economy (see
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 7 ( 2 0 2 2 ) 3 3 5 5 1 e3 3 5 7 0 33553
Fig. 1 e Schematic representation of the two interconnected supply chain routes for green hydrogen production and water
electrolyzer manufacturing.
Fig. 1). Renewable energy availability also plays a crucial role black hydrogen, which depends on the type of coal used. If
in the green hydrogen economy, but it is not a focus of this hydrogen is produced by steam methane reformation (SMR) of
research. The literature review of this study, therefore, covers natural gas, it is called grey hydrogen. This method is
the following key areas: currently the most significant source to fill current hydrogen
(Green-) Hydrogen demand: demands.
Moreover, hydrogen can also be produced as an industrial
18 studies from various institutions published between by-product, for example, during caustic soda production or via
2017 and 2021 (see Appendix B.1) chlor-alkali electrolysis. This production path is associated
25 country-specific hydrogen roadmaps published between with the color white and considered low carbon since the only
December 2017 and September 2021 source of CO2 emission is the CO2-footprint of the used grid
electricity to operate electrolyzers. Additionally, by-product
Water electrolyzer production: hydrogen can be produced during the naphtha reformation
process in refineries. In recent years, new colors of hydrogen
Market research and forecasting of worldwide electrolyzer have been introduced based on low carbon production tech-
manufacturing capacities niques due to emission reduction targets. Most widely known
Analysis of ongoing green hydrogen projects are blue and green hydrogen. Blue hydrogen can also be seen
as an extension of grey hydrogen since its production is also
Companies can use the information provided in this study, based on natural gas. Yet, the generated carbon dioxide during
for example, to evaluate the market potential of green the SMR process is captured and stored instead of released
hydrogen, develop ramp-up scenarios, identify target markets into the atmosphere. Hydrogen can also be produced via water
for supply, production, and sales, and develop business cases. electrolysis using various energy sources. The produced
In addition, policymakers, associations, and researchers may hydrogen is called green if renewable energy is used during
use the information to match projections for the hydrogen the electrolysis process. Instead of renewable energy, nuclear
market potentials with electrolyzer production capabilities to power or mixed electricity from the grid can also be used for
identify further areas for research and action. water electrolysis. In this case, the hydrogen is pink or yellow,
respectively. Additionally, hydrogen can also be produced via
methane pyrolysis, in this case it is called turquoise hydrogen.
Green hydrogen supply chain: current state and Except for the grey and black or brown hydrogen, all other
outlook hydrogen colors are often considered low carbon hydrogen or
clean hydrogen.
The current hydrogen production mainly depends on fossil In 2020, hydrogen production reached 90 Mt. As can be seen
fuels [4]. Usually, different hydrogen production methods are from Table 1, 59% of this hydrogen was produced from natural
expressed with a rainbow analogy based on colors (cf. Table 1). gas, primarily via SMR. 21% of the hydrogen was produced as a
Hydrogen produced via coal gasification is known as brown or by-product, mostly in refineries during the naphtha
Table 1 e Color scheme, classification, and production capacities of hydrogen, based on production processes, feedstock
and/or energy source.
Source Method Color Classification 2020 Production % [4]a
Black Coal Gasification Black H2 High Carbon Footprint 19%
Lignite (Brown Coal) Brown H2
Natural Gas Natural gas reforming Grey H2 59%
Oil Partial oxidation Grey H2 0.6%
Byproduct Naphtha reformation Grey H2 21%
Chlor-alkali electrolysis White H2 Clean
Natural Gas þ CCS Natural gas reforming Blue H2 0.7%
Methane Pyrolysis Turquoise H2 No commercial scale production
Nuclear Energy Water electrolysis Pink H2
Mixed Grid Electricity Water electrolysis Yellow H2
Renewable Energy Water electrolysis Green H2 Green 0.03%
a
Taken from Ref. [4]; remarks from the authors: production results is more than 100% in the original source.
reformation process. Coal also remained an essential source various hydrogen demand estimations for the years 2030 and
for hydrogen production during 2020, while the share of low 2050 are presented. It can be seen that there are significant
carbon methods in hydrogen production accounted for less differences between the different scenarios from various in-
than 1% of the total hydrogen supply. Hydrogen produced via stitutions concerning the predicted hydrogen demand [7].
water electrolysis accounted for only 0.03% of the supply [4]. As shown in Fig. 2, the demand estimations in scenarios for
Refineries and the chemical industry are the main 2030 vary between 77 Mt H2 and 212 Mt H2. For 2050, the gap
hydrogen consumers on the demand side. In 2020, nearly between the minimum and maximum demand estimations is
40 Mt of hydrogen were consumed by refineries, where even higher (min 148 Mt H2 e max 660 Mt H2) [7]. The studies
hydrogen has been used mostly in hydrotreating and hydro- clearly show that a reliable estimation of the future hydrogen
cracking processes for desulfurization and production of high- demand becomes increasingly difficult the further one looks
value oil products. In the chemical industry, hydrogen has into the future. Since the modeling approaches, design of the
been used for many years as a feedstock mainly for methanol scenarios, and data assumptions differ among the scenarios,
and ammonia synthesis. Around 45 Mt of hydrogen was variations in demand estimations are understandable.
dedicated to ammonia and methanol production during 2020. Additionally, the level of climate change ambition has a
Additionally, 5 Mt of hydrogen demand came from the steel significant impact on the outcome [8]. As an example, Inter-
industry for direct reduction of iron ore in 2020. Apparently, national Energy Agency (IEA) predicts the demand for 2030
hydrogen demand in new applications stayed very low. For with 90 Mt H2 in the Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP)
example, in transport, less than 20 kt of hydrogen were 2020 - Sustainable Development Scenario. The Net Zero Sce-
consumed during 2020 [4,5]. nario from the same institution foresees the demand in 2030
Alongside its current applications in industry and re- with 212 Mt H2, which is more than double the amount due to
fineries, hydrogen can play an important role in the power more aggressive energy transition assumptions. Moreover,
sector either as a storage and transport medium of renewable which end-use applications of hydrogen are covered varies
energy or as a means of off-grid power supply. It can be a heat among the scenarios. In general, foreseeable hydrogen appli-
source for both industry and residential buildings. In the cations can be classified as power, mobility, industry, and
transport sector, hydrogen can be used directly as a fuel or as a heat. Due to a lack of quantitative data, some sectors may be
feedstock to produce different synthetic fuels [6]. excluded from scenarios or are only described in the results
without quantification [8]. Based on the average of the sce-
Analysis of hydrogen studies narios (black bold dashed line in Fig. 2), overall hydrogen de-
mand for 2030 can be rounded up to approximately 110 Mt H2,
The term hydrogen economy refers to the widespread usage which seems plausible considering the current demand of
of hydrogen in different applications and sectors with various 90 Mt H2.
purposes where hydrogen becomes an indispensable part of Furthermore, concerning the hydrogen production
the energy system. However, in which applications hydrogen methods, these scenarios do not give specific information
will be adopted in the future is still ambiguous due to cost and about the share of green hydrogen. Distinctly, the REmap
efficiency concerns and technological implementation and scenario, which is prepared by International Renewable En-
adaption. Additionally, which low carbon hydrogen produc- ergy Agency (IRENA) to analyze global energy transformation,
tion methods will be acceptable is also debatable. Under these provides demand estimation directly for green hydrogen. This
circumstances, different energy scenarios, which various in- scenario predicts green hydrogen demand with 3 EJ, which
stitutions publish, can be helpful to estimate the future corresponds to approx. 15 Mt H2 in 2030 and 19 EJ (approx.
hydrogen demand. The “Working Paper: Hydrogen Demand 95 Mt H2) in 2050 (parameters for conversion of units are
and Cost Dynamics” published by World Energy Council pro- described in Appendix A) [10]. Even though a cross-
vides a compiled overview of the hydrogen demand estima- comparison among different energy scenarios sounds unrea-
tions from different scenarios. Based on this study, in Fig. 2, sonable, approx. 15 Mt green hydrogen demand from REmap
Fig. 2 e Comparison of various studies with different scenarios on the global annual hydrogen demand estimations in Mt for
the years 2030 and 2050 [7,9]. (The lines between the data points serve only as a guideline for the eyes.)
scenario corresponds to approx. 13% of the average estimated In our study, the HyResource website, which is established
110 Mt overall hydrogen demand from other scenarios for by CSIRO (The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
2030, which seems reasonable. In addition to REmap scenario Research Organization), National Energy Resources Australia
the Hydrogen for Net Zero scenario, which was recently (NERA), Australian Hydrogen Council, and Future Fuels CRC,
published by Hydrogen Council and McKinsey & Company played an important role, since it provides an aggregated list
provides important insights related to future hydrogen de- of different types of documents published in different coun-
mand from the viewpoint of industry representatives. This tries [13]. Our list includes published hydrogen strategies until
study, which is described as ambitious yet realistic, estimates the end of September 2021 and the draft strategies published
overall hydrogen demand as 140 Mt H2 in 2030 and 660 Mt H2 in by Poland, Italy, Colombia, Ukraine, and Brazil, which might
2050 by analyzing current and projected future applications of be altered after the public consultation phase. Fig. 3 shows all
hydrogen. According to the study, 75 Mt of the overall 140 Mt analyzed reports by their publication date. It is obvious that in
hydrogen demand will be produced as clean or low-carbon the past 1.5 years, a new political hydrogen strategy has been
hydrogen in 2030. The share of green hydrogen among the published almost every month.
low-carbon production methods is forecasted to be 20e30 Mt In 2017, Japan published the first ‘Basic Hydrogen Strategy’,
H2, which is higher than the IRENA study [9]. To comprise both which has then been extended to ‘The Strategic Roadmap for
energy transition expectations and the perspective of the in- Hydrogen and Fuel Cells' with a cooperation plan between in-
dustry participants, in the upcoming sections of this study, dustry, academia, and government to create a “Hydrogen So-
both REmap scenario from IRENA and Hydrogen for Net Zero ciety” in 2019 [14,15]. South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia
study from Hydrogen Council will be referred to in a also published their strategies in 2019. In 2020, the number of
comparative matter concerning green hydrogen demand published national hydrogen strategies increased significantly
estimations. by 14 country roadmaps as well as the hydrogen roadmap of
the EU, and this trend still continues. Since April 2020, a new
Analysis of hydrogen country roadmaps hydrogen strategy has been published nearly every month. In
early strategies, the main focus was decarbonization of the
To understand the future role of hydrogen, strategies, road- mobility sector with the developments in fuel cell technolo-
maps, energy transition plans published by the governments gies. However, as the climate targets become more ambitious
are also significant resources. The number of analyzed to limit global warming to 1.5 C above preindustrial levels
hydrogen strategy documents differ in reports. For example, instead of 2 C, and the time period to reach net zero emissions
in the Global Hydrogen Review 2021 report, the International is brought forward to 2045 instead of 2050, various possible
Energy Agency (IEA) evaluates the roadmaps of 15 countries applications of hydrogen in industry, energy and heat gener-
and the EU without mentioning China and the USA. However, ation in addition to the mobility sector became subject of the
in November 2020, the US Department of Energy (DOE) pub- national strategies. In most of these country strategies, targets
lished the ‘Hydrogen Program Plan’, which gives valuable in- are defined separately for 2030 and 2050. The time period be-
sights into hydrogen developments in the USA [11]. In China, tween 2020 and 2030 is referred to as the establishment phase
the 14th Five-Year Plan (chapter 9, section 2) covers hydrogen of the hydrogen economy. According to estimations, after 2030
energy as a future industry and explains related plans [12]. the hydrogen demand will rise sharply, and the share of green
Fig. 3 e Overview of release dates of various country roadmaps on hydrogen published in between December 2017 and
September 2021. (Color only online.)
hydrogen will also increase. Due to the different characteristics Among the reviewed policy documents, only nine of them
of the published documents, it is quite hard to make classifi- centered on green hydrogen, and their main points are sum-
cations based on strategies. Additionally, the countries' target marized below:
sectors, main goals, and transition strategies vary dramatically EU: In the hydrogen strategy published by European Com-
because of their current energy structure, future energy de- mission, both clean and renewable hydrogen terms are used
mand estimations, and resources [16,17]. However, the most interchangeably and refer to green hydrogen. Additionally, a
remarkable distinction can be done according to indicated combination of electricity-based hydrogen, which is defined
production methods of hydrogen. Some roadmaps, like UK and as hydrogen produced through the electrolysis of water
Australia, start with the definition of clean or low-carbon regardless of the electricity source, and fossil-based hydrogen
hydrogen, and their plan covers different colors of hydrogen. with carbon capture is defined as low-carbon hydrogen. Even
Whereas some countries solely focus on green hydrogen, like though in short- and medium-term low-carbon hydrogen is
Germany and Spain. As a result, countries can be classified as acceptable as a transition medium, the roadmap gives priority
clean and green countries according to their hydrogen strate- to renewable hydrogen and does not specify the time period
gies. Additionally, the country roadmaps provide information for short and medium term. The EU roadmap targets an
on the respective hydrogen supply strategies. A distinction is installed water electrolysis capacity of at least 6 GW by 2024
made whether the countries i) use the produced hydrogen and aims to reach 40 GW installed capacity by 2030 in Europe.
themselves in the future, ii) export it, iii) import it or iv) act as a Moreover, the European Union intends to support neighboring
distribution hub. Among the 25 countries, 13 are planning to countries to install an additional 40 GW electrolysis capacity
export clean or green hydrogen, 6 countries as well as the EU by 2030 to export green hydrogen to the EU. Strikingly, the
are planning to import hydrogen, and 6 countries are either roadmap also mentions the lack of production capacity for
self-sufficient or are planning to act as a distribution hub for electrolyzers in Europe (stated as below 1 GW per year) and
hydrogen in the future. emphasizes the importance of increasing the electrolyzer
In Table 2 all 25 country strategies, as well as the roadmap production capacity [25].
of the EU,1 which have been published during the last four Germany: The German National Hydrogen Strategy de-
years, are listed. In addition, the list includes the publication pends on green hydrogen, and according to the document, the
name, date, and information on the type of hydrogen antici- expected hydrogen demand of Germany will be 90e100 TWh/a
pated to produce/use and the corresponding supply strategy. (1.6e1.8 Mt/a H2) in 2030. In order to supply the required
amount of hydrogen partially, Germany is planning to install
5 GW electrolysis capacity till 2030 and additional 5 GW latest
1
The number of country roadmaps may vary in different doc- till 2040. However, due to limited renewable energy capacity,
uments. In the study “Hydrogen for Net Zero: A Critical Cost-
Germany is looking for partnerships to import green
Competitive Energy Vector” for example 39 country roadmaps
are mentioned due to the fact that the EU hydrogen roadmaps is hydrogen. Additionally, the German National Hydrogen
referred to as 27 individual countries [9]. Strategy also considers the increasing need for electricity to
Table 2 e Overview on hydrogen country roadmaps published since 2017 divided into green and clean hydrogen (hyperlinks only online). Latest access date for all
publications 30.04.22.
Country H2 Production Category H2 Supply Strategy Name of the Document Publication Date
Japan Clean Importer Basic Hydrogen Strategy [14] December 2017
South Korea Clean Importer Hydrogen Economy Roadmap of Korea [18] January 2019
New Zealand Green Exporter A Vision for Hydrogen in New Zealand [19] September 2019
Australia Clean Exporter Australia's National Hydrogen Strategy [20] November 2019
Netherlands Clean Self-sufficient/Exporter Hub Government Strategy on Hydrogen [21] April 2020
Portugal Green Exporter EN-H2 Estrategia Nacional Para o Hidroge
nio (Versa
~ o Draft) [22] May 2020
Germany Green Importer The National Hydrogen Strategy [23] June 2020
Norway Clean Exporter The Norwegian Government's Hydrogen Strategy [24] June 2020
EU Green Importer A Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate-Neutral Europe [25] July 2020
France Clean Exporter National Strategy for the Development of Decarbonised and Renewable Hydrogen in France [26] September 2020
Russia Clean Exporter Roadmap for Development of Hydrogen Energy for 2020e2024 [27] October 2020
Spain Green Exporter Hydrogen Roadmap: A Commitment to Renewable Hydrogen - Executive Summary [28] October 2020
Chile Green Exporter National Green Hydrogen Strategy [29] November 2020
Finland Green Self-sufficient/Exporter Hub National Hydrogen Roadmap for Finland [30] November 2020
Italy Green Importer Strategia Nazionale Idrogeno Linee Guida Preliminari [31] November 2020
USA Clean Exporter Department of Energy Hydrogen Program Plan [11] November 2020
Canada Clean Exporter Hydrogen Strategy for Canada [32] December 2020
Brazil Clean Exporter Baseline to Support the Brazilian Hydrogen Strategy [33] February 2021
China Clean Self-sufficient/Exporter Hub The 14th Five-Year Plan [12] March 2021
Ukraine Clean Self-sufficient/Exporter Hub Draft Roadmap for Production and Use of Hydrogen in Ukraine [34] March 2021
Hungary Clean Self-sufficient/Exporter Hub Hungary's National Hydrogen Strategy [35] May 2021
Poland Clean Self-sufficient/Exporter Hub 2030 Polish Hydrogen Strategy [36] May 2021
Czech Rep. Clean Importer The Czech Republic's Hydrogen Strategy [37] July 2021
Colombia Clean Importer Hoja De Ruta Del Hidro geno En Colombia [38] August 2021
Morocco Green Exporter Strategie Nationale De L'hydrogene Vert [39] August 2021
UK Clean Exporter UK Hydrogen Strategy [40] August 2021
33557
operate water electrolyzers and plans to increase the share of and the current 85% share of renewable electricity provide
renewable electricity [23]. Authors' notes on the conversion of favorable conditions to produce green hydrogen. In 2018,
units2: 5 GW installed water electrolysis capacity results in a New Zealand also signed a memorandum of cooperation
production of 0.18e0.36 Mt/a H2, assuming between 2000 and with Japan and aims to agree with South Korea to export
4000 operating hours per year. Which means until 2030 only green hydrogen [19]. According to a referred study by IEA,
10e20% of the prospected hydrogen demand will be produced New Zealand has a potential of producing 700 kt/a H2. 60% of
within Germany. the produced hydrogen is enough to meet the domestic
Italy: In its draft strategy, Italy considers that by 2030, needs, and the rest of the hydrogen can be exported directly
hydrogen will fill 2% of the final energy demand of Italy, which or converted into other hydrogen derivatives and then
is equal to 0.7 Mt/a H2. Italy also plans to install 5 GW water exported [41].
electrolyzer capacity [31]. Considering the calculation Morocco: The National Green Hydrogen Strategy of
mentioned in the previous paragraph, the 5 GW installed ca- Morocco is only available in French on the Ministry of Energy
pacity will cover 50% of the hydrogen demand within Italy. Transition and Sustainable Development web page. The
Spain: Based on the Executive Summary of the Hydrogen document does not contain information related to targeted
Roadmap, Spain plans to install 4 GW water electrolyzer ca- electrolysis capacity yet explains the planned steps to create
pacity till 2030. Additionally, Spain calls for a new regulatory green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol industry. Morocco
framework in favor of renewable hydrogen due to concerns has favorable conditions to produce green hydrogen due to its
related to ramp-up of non-renewable hydrogen [28]. solar and wind energy potential. The country's proximity to
Portugal: The National Hydrogen Strategy of Portugal aims Europe makes Morocco further attractive, and the country
to install 2e2.5 GW water electrolyzer capacity till 2030. The aims to start exporting synthetic liquid fuels between 2030
strategy also mentions that green hydrogen alongside with and 2040 [39].
the increasing share of renewable energy will be helpful to For countries with a clean hydrogen strategy, estimating the
reduce country's energy dependency further [22]. green hydrogen ratio among different production methods can
Finland: Finland's National Hydrogen Roadmap has been be challenging. For example, in the UK roadmap, a target of
published by Business Finland, which is an organization reaching 5 GW hydrogen production capacity till 2030 is
working for the government. Since it is not published by mentioned. However, there is no information related to the
Finnish government directly, some studies do not consider share of green hydrogen [40]. On the other hand, some countries
this document as an official national hydrogen strategy. like Australia and Hungary give their target for green hydrogen
However, due to political dynamics of the country, it has been production capacity separately [20,35]. Additionally, some clean
included in this review. The Hydrogen Roadmap of Finland is countries like the Netherlands, state that they will further
based on green hydrogen, and it suggests replacing the cur- transform from clean to green hydrogen from 2030 to 2050 [21].
rent grey hydrogen production gradually with green hydrogen In the clean and green division among the countries,
produced by water electrolysis. According to their findings, especially the unclear status of the blue hydrogen creates an
green hydrogen is cost competitive compared to investing in ambiguity. Blue hydrogen which is produced from natural gas
CCS (carbon capture and storage). The roadmap also foresees with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen as a transition
that potential green hydrogen production in Finland in 2030 medium to create a hydrogen economy. According to this
will be between 100 kt/a H2 and 150 kt/a H2 without including view, the current share of renewable energy is not enough to
the new applications in industry and mobility [30]. create a hydrogen economy if it solely depends on green
Chile: In terms of green hydrogen production, Chile is one hydrogen. However, dependency on natural gas to produce
of the most advantageous countries in the world due to its hydrogen brings several other questions to mind.
renewable energy sources. According to Chile's National The first question is whether the investment in a CCS
Green Hydrogen Strategy, the country has more than 1800 GW technology is reasonable and sustainable for a rather short
renewable energy expansion potential, which makes Chile the term if there will be a second transition from blue hydrogen to
most promising location for cheapest green hydrogen pro- green hydrogen. According to depreciation tables published
duction. Chile plans to install 5 GW water electrolyzer capacity by the German Federal Ministry of Finance, the lifetime of
till 2025 to create a domestic market which leads to a pro- underground gas storage applications, where the captured
duction of approx. 0.36 Mt/a H2 (assuming 4000 operating carbon dioxide should be stored, is 33 years [42]. So, in-
hours of the electrolysis per year, which can even be higher in vestments in blue hydrogen are not only costly, but also long-
Chile due to the renewable energy potential). Between 2025 term decisions. Due to this the hydrogen roadmap of Norway
and 2030, the country aims to increase the installed electro- clearly states that they will only invest in blue hydrogen if blue
lyzer capacity to 25 GW and start exporting green hydrogen hydrogen is acceptable for the European Union [24]. Addi-
and ammonia. During this period of massive scale-up, they tionally, instead of blue hydrogen, investments can also be
expect to produce green hydrogen at a price of less than 1.5 channeled to increase the share of renewable energy to foster
USD/kg. If the country can reach these targets, Chile hopes to a green hydrogen economy, as in the case of green countries.
become global supplier of clean fuels after 2030 [29]. The second question concerning blue hydrogen is its
New Zealand: According to the vision paper, which can acceptance as low carbon or even green hydrogen. A recent
also be considered as a draft strategy, published by New article by Howarth and Jacobson has triggered discussions
Zealand Government in 2019, the renewable energy potential related to blue hydrogen. When they analyze the greenhouse
gas emissions of blue hydrogen by taking into account not
2
See appendix for parameters used for conversion of units. only carbon dioxide but also unburned fugitive methane, they
conclude that even with a low (1.54%) methane emission rate,

Table 3 e Installed electrolysis capacities to produce
greenhouse gas emissions from blue hydrogen are only
15 Mt (3 EJ) respectively 25 Mt of green hydrogen
18e25% lower than grey hydrogen. According to their findings, depending on the operating hours.
blue hydrogen will not provide any benefit in terms of climate
Operating Installed capacity in Installed capacity in
protection; on the contrary, it will cause an increase in natural
hours in h/a GW to achieve GW to achieve
gas demand [43]. 15 Mt H2 (3 EJ) 25 Mt H2
To conclude, with the increasing share of renewable en-
2000 417 695
ergy and the concerns related to climate change, hydrogen 4000 208 348
will have a significant role in the future. Yet, the share of green 8000 104 174
hydrogen in this hydrogen economy is still questionable. To
create a hydrogen economy, there is no one-size-fits-all so-
lution, which is understandable due to different resources of operations. In general, the operating hours can be broadly
the countries. However, during this transition era, both in- categorized into three cases3:
ternational energy institutions and policy makers have a
crucial impact on the characteristics of the future hydrogen i) using onshore wind energy results in ~2000 full load
economy. Will it be dominated by the green hydrogen or blue hours per year,
hydrogen? To have a clear view, the policy makers must ii) coupling solar energy with a wind farm results in ~4000
answer the following urgent questions to provide planning full load hours per year, and
security for companies: Till which year will clean hydrogen be iii) almost full-time operation e.g., with electricity from the
acceptable? If there will be a second transition from clean grid or hydropower results in ~8000 full load hours per
hydrogen to green hydrogen, how will it be financed? year.
In a recent study, IEA also provided information about

Water electrolyzers production: current state and needed installed water electrolysis capacities: depending on
outlook the three different scenarios, an average installation of 6e8,
20 or 90 GW per year is required [4]. Fig. 4 compares the
To bring the hydrogen economy to life, it is not only necessary needed installed capacities for the three studies, considering
to analyze future hydrogen demand and clarify policy-related the different prospected demands for green hydrogen in the
questions. From the supply chain point of view, it must be abovementioned studies and the defined operating hour
ensured, that sufficient renewable energy and hydrogen pro- scenarios. It can be seen that the needed installed capacities
duction capacities are available too. Thus, this research pro- range from approx. 50 GW to more than 700 GW with an
vides a detailed analysis of green hydrogen's current and average of almost 340 GW in 2030. Considering the current
future production capacities. The installed electrolysis ca- installed electrolyzer capacity of about 0.3 GW, it is clear that
pacity in 2020 is estimated at approx. 0.3 GW [4]. Furthermore, there is a huge gap to close in order to fill the demand ex-
the consumed hydrogen in 2020 was mainly produced by pectations within the next eight years. To fill this enormous
steam methane reforming or as a by-product of naphtha gap, besides the need for a sufficient renewable energy
production (see Green hydrogen supply chain: current state supply, it is evident that enough electrolyzer manufacturing
and outlook). This means it is not only necessary to foster capacity is also needed. This study aims to analyze the
demand for green hydrogen to build a green hydrogen econ- feasibility of closing this gap by focusing on electrolyzer
omy. At the same time, hydrogen production technologies like manufacturing capacities. In addition to production capacity
water electrolyzers have to be installed to cover this surplus considerations, supply chain disruptions or shortages may
demand. occur due to higher volumes of demand for parts and ma-
As discussed in Green hydrogen supply chain: current terials which are needed to produce electrolyzers. For
state and outlook, IRENA forecasted a green hydrogen de- example the usage of iridium in PEM electrolyzers as catalyst
mand of about 3 EJ, which corresponds to about 15 Mt H2 in [45]. However, these concerns have not been included into
2030 [10]. Another study that evaluated the needed installed the scope of this paper.
capacities was published by Hydrogen Council and McKinsey In a first step an investigation of ongoing green hydrogen
& Company. According to the study, a green hydrogen supply projects was made to better understand project timelines. In
of 20e30 Mt H2 (with the assumption of 6000 operating hours) the second step, a market analysis of the electrolyzer
is forecasted in this study, leading to a required installed manufacturing capacities was performed to identify exist-
capacity of 200e250 GW [9]. To compare the effects of the ing and emerging players and worldwide production ca-
different demand forecasts from the above mentioned pacities. And finally, a forecast of installed electrolysis
studies, we calculated the needed installed capacity for capacities was created, using assumptions drawn from the
different operating hour scenarios using 15 Mt H2 and 25 Mt project analysis.
H2 (the average forecast of [9]), and the parameters described
in Appendix A. Assuming this green hydrogen demand is
produced via water electrolysis, 104e695 GW electrolysis 3
The selection of these values is based on the estimation of
capacity must be installed by 2030 (cf. Table 3). The high 1670 load hours per year for Germany and 4000 load hours per
spread in the installed capacities results from the operating year of a combined wind and photovoltaic park in North Africa
hours, which differ strongly by the energy sources used for [44]. The 8000 h represent e.g. grid connection.
Fig. 4 e Comparison of needed installed electrolyzer capacities to fill green hydrogen demand in 2030 based on different
studies and operating hours (cf. Table 3 and min/max values from the Global Hydrogen Review 2021 of the IEA).
Green hydrogen projects analysis 10 major projects (based on hydrogen production capacity) in
either the concept or the feasibility stage (cf. Table 4) and five
The review of green hydrogen projects aims to understand the projects with Final Investment Decision (cf. Table 5) was car-
timelines of such projects better and develop a more realistic ried out.
forecast for installed electrolyzer capacity ramp-up. Accord- When analyzing the project announcements listed in
ing to the study “Hydrogen for Net Zero: A Critical Cost- Tables 4 and 5, it is clear that more than 400 GW of renewable
Competitive Energy Vector” from Hydrogen Council and energy is planned to be built for the future production of green
McKinsey & Company, the number of green and clean hydrogen. However, final investment decisions have only
hydrogen projects with a capacity equal to or more than 1 MW been made for approx. 3 GW water electrolysis capacities
reached 522 in 2021. Europe is leading with 261 announced worldwide. Another striking point from the analysis is the
projects. Among these projects, 43 are in gigawatt scale, and time span from project initiation to feasibility study to final
there are 9 renewable hydrogen projects with a capacity above investment decision, the subsequent construction of the
10 GW. This study foresees 9 Mt renewable hydrogen pro- plants, and finally, the start of hydrogen production. The
duction capacity till 2030 based on announced projects cor- soonest start of production taken from Table 4 is planned for
responding to an electrolysis capacity of 93 GW [9]. Even 2027. For the projects listed in Table 5, where the final in-
though this report provides essential information related to vestment decisions are already taken, the earliest start of
the required investment amount from a business-oriented production will be in 2023 for ~465 MW water electrolysis. The
viewpoint, a list of projects is not published as open-source first GW-scale plants should start their operation earliest in
yet. Additionally, the status of the projects is not separately 2026. Overall, based on the details listed for the selected pro-
discussed for green and clean hydrogen. jects, it can be concluded that the duration of green hydrogen
The IEA also provides an open database for announced projects with capacities over 1 GW is today around 6e10 years
hydrogen projects used in this study to analyze the required with approximately 3e5 years until FID, and additional 3e5
capacity for electrolysis plants that will be installed in the years for construction and commissioning until the start of
short term [46]. In total, 117 projects in this database cover operations. Although in the future, it can be assumed that the
electrolysis systems delivering hydrogen as a product and times between the individual stages of project development
have an announced capacity of 100 MW or more. This leads to will be optimized, this project life-cycle has to be considered
an announced installed capacity of 247.5 GW, of which 137 GW when estimating the ramp-up of the green hydrogen
will be operative until 2030. Although 95 out of these 117 economy.
projects do not have a specified start date, they are segmented
by their status into Concept Phase, Feasibility Study, Final Electrolysis manufacturing market analysis
Investment Decision (FID), or Under Construction. Based on
the analysis of this database, 97% are still in an early stage The second part of the evaluation of the ramp-up of the
(concept or feasibility study). hydrogen market is a detailed market analysis of electrolyzer
Based on this initial analysis, two primary information can manufacturers. In total, 39 companies producing or planning
be identified: most of the announced projects with high ca- to build either water electrolysis systems and/or their core
pacities are in very early project stages, and, secondly, current part - the stack - were identified. However, it is important to
projections show that it takes 6e10 years to implement a GW note that not all listed manufacturers that offer systems also
electrolyzer project. To gain more insights into how capacities have their own stack development. Table 6 provides an
ramp-up in the coming years, a more detailed analysis of the overview of the companies already active in the market or
Table 4 e Selection of announced major green hydrogen projects with more than 100 MW of electrolyzer capacity (status: concept and feasibility phase). (MOU
Memorandum of Understanding, FID Final Investment Decision, FEED Frontend Engineering Design).
Project name Renewable Capacity Electrolysis capacity Location Additional Status Source
(energy source) (GW)/available in information
year
HyDeal Ambition 95 GW (solar) 67 GW/2030 Spain, France, (later A series of projects and Several subprojects are under development [47]
stages Germany) initiatives, first initiative
in Spain
n/a 45 GW (wind-solar) 30 GW/not known Kazakhstan 3e5 years development MOU signed [48]
phase,
5 years construction and
commissioning
Western Green Energy Up to 50 GW (wind-solar) Not known/not known Australia 3.5 Mt/a of green FID planned post 2028 [49,50]
Hub hydrogen
Aman 30 GW (wind-solar) Not known/before 2030 Mauretania Realize annual MOU signed May 2021, [51]
production of green Feasibility study until December 2022,
hydrogen for 10 Mt of FID in 2025
green ammonia FEED until December 2024
n/a 25 GW (wind-solar) Not known/not known Oman 1.8 Mt/a of green Concept phase [52]
hydrogen and up to
10 Mt/a of green
ammonia
Asian Renewable Energy 26 GW (wind-solar) Not known/2027e2028 Australia 2014: Project Feasibility study [53]
Hub development start,
2020: environmental
approval by western
Australian government,
2025:
FID, 2026: start of
construction 2027/2028:
first exports
H2 Clean Energy Up to 100 GW (tidal) Not known/2030 Russia 5 Mt/a of hydrogen MOU signed [54]
Penzhinskaya Bay
Hydrogen Plant
North H2 Not known (wind) 1 GW until 2027 Netherlands Electrolyzer build out of Feasibility study finalized [55]
4 GW until 2030 100 MW modules
>10 GW until 2040
AquaVentus Not known (wind) 10 GW/2035 Germany 1 Mt/a of hydrogen Concept phase [56]
HyEnergy Zero Carbon 8 GW (wind-solar) Not known/not known Australia Compressed hydrogen MOU signed April/2021, [57,58]
Hydrogen Feasibility study
33561
Table 5 e Selection of major green hydrogen projects (status: FID Final Investment Decision).
Project Name Renewable Electrolysis capacity (GW) Location Additional Status Source
capacity (energy information
source)
NEOM Up to 30 GW (wind- 2 GW Saudi-Arabia 2026 production FID [59]
solar) start
Inner Mongolia Green 2.2 GW (wind-solar) Min. 465 MW China Operational mid FID [60]
Hydrogen 2023
Hyport® Duqm Not known (wind- 250e500 MW Oman Operational 2026 FID [61,62]
solar)
Hydrogen Holland n. a. 200 MW Netherlands 2024 start of FID [63]
production
Western New York n. a. 120 MW USA 2025 production FID [64,65]
Science & Technology start
Advanced
Manufacturing Park
Table 6 e Overview of water electrolyzer manufacturing companies (hyperlink only online). Latest access date for all
websites 30.04.22.
Company Name Stack System Technology Headquarter Website
AquaHydrex Inc. X AEL USA https://aquahydrex.com/
Asahi Kasei Corporation X AEL Japan https://www.asahi-kasei.co.jp/salt-electrolysis/en/index.html
Beijing SinoHy Energy X AEL, PEM China https://www.sinohyenergy.com/
Co., Ltd.
CarboTech Gruppe X PEM Germany https://www.carbotech.de/?lang¼en
Cockerill Jingli Hydrogen X X AEL China https://www.jinglihydrogen.com/
(joint venture of
Suzhou Jingli Hydrogen
Production Equipment
Co., Ltd. and John
Cockerill Group)
Cummins Enze X PEM China https://www.cummins.com/news/releases/2021/12/21/cummins-and-
(Guangdong) Hydrogen sinopec-officially-launch-joint-venture-produce-green-hydrogen
Technology Co., Ltd
(Joint Venture of
Cummins Inc. and
Sinopec Group) [69]
Cummins Inc. X AEL, PEM USA https://www.cummins.com/
Elogen SAS (formerly X X PEM France https://elogenh2.com/en/
known as AREVA
H2Gen)
Enapter AG X AEM Germany https://www.enapter.com/
Fortescue Future X PEM Australia https://ffi.com.au/
Industries
Green H2 Systems (a X PEM Germany https://www.green-h2-systems.de/en/
company of FEST
group)
Green Hydrogen Systems X AEL Denmark https://greenhydrogensystems.com/
GHS
Haldor Topsoe A/S X SOEC Denmark https://www.topsoe.com/
Hitachi Zosen X AEL, PEM Japan https://www.hitachizosen.co.jp/english/
Corporation
Hoeller Electrolyzer X PEM Germany https://www.hoeller-electrolyzer.com/
GmbH
Honda Motor Co., Ltd.a X PEM Japan https://global.honda/
[70]
H-Tec Systems GmbH X X PEM Germany https://www.h-tec.com/
(acquisition by MAN
Energy Solutions in
2021)
Hydrogen Optimized Inc. X AEL Canada https://hydrogenoptimized.com/
HydrogenPro AS X AEL Norway https://hydrogen-pro.com/
Table 6 e (continued )
Company Name Stack System Technology Headquarter Website
Hytron Energia e Gases X PEM Brazil https://www.hytron.com.br/gas
Industriais (acquisition
by NEA GROUP in 2020)
ITM Power PLC X PEM UK https://www.itm-power.com/
Kobelco Eco-Solutions X AEL, PEM Japan https://www.kobelco-eco.co.jp/english/
Co., Ltd.a [71]
KYOCERA AVX/ X AEL USA https://www.kumatec.com/
KUMATEC Hydrogen
GmbH Co. KG (formerly
known as Kumatec
GmbH, acquisition by
Kyocera AVX
Corporation in 2018)
McPhy Energy S.A. X AEL France https://mcphy.com/en/
Nel ASA X AEL, PEM Norway https://nelhydrogen.com/
Ohmium International, X PEM USA https://ohmium.com/
Inc.
PERIC Hydrogen X AEL, PEM China https://english.peric718.com/about-us/
Technologies Co., Ltd.
Plug Power Inc. X X PEM USA https://www.plugpower.com/
(acquisition of Giner
ELX in 2020)
Robert Bosch GmbH X PEM Germany https://www.bosch.com/
[72,73]
Schaeffler AG (acquisition X PEM Germany https://www.schaeffler.de/en/index.jsp
of Hydron Energy B.V.
in 2020) [74]
Shandong Saikesaisi X PEM China http://www.ql-spe.com/en/
Hydrogen Energy Co.,
Ltd.
Siemens Energy AG X PEM Germany https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en.html
SOLIDpower S.p.A.b X SOEC Italy https://www.solidpower.com/en/
Sunfire GmbH X AEL, SOEC Germany https://www.sunfire.de/en/home
Teledyne Energy X PEM USA https://www.teledynees.com/
Systems, Inc.
thyssenkrupp nucera AG X AEL Germany https://www.thyssenkrupp-nucera.com/
& Co. KGaA (formaly
known as
thyssenkrupp Uhde
Chlorine Engineers
GmbH)
Tianjin Mainland X AEL China http://www.cnthe.com/en/
Hydrogen Equipment
Co., Ltd.
Toshiba Energy Systems X SOEC, PEM Japan https://www.toshiba-energy.com/en/
& Solutions
Corporation
WEW GmbH X AEL Germany https://wewhydrogen.com/en/
a
Main focus on hydrogen fueling stations.
b
Main focus on solid oxide fuel cells (SOEC) which can be operated in electrolysis mode.
have publicly announced entering the water electrolyzer electrolysis technologies, we refer to the following review ar-
market in the following years. In addition to the classification ticles: Carmo et al. [66], Ni et al. [67], Grigoriev et al. [68].
into stack and system, the overview also indicates the location The majority of the companies have their headquarters in
of the companies and the type of water electrolysis technology Germany (11), the USA (6), China (6), and Japan (5). Other eight
produced. Four different water electrolysis technologies can companies are located in Europe (incl. UK); one company is
be found on the manufacturer list: i) PEM e polymer electro- headquartered in Australia, one in Brazil, and one in Canada.
lyte membrane electrolysis, ii) AEL e alkaline electrolysis, iii) From this geographical analysis, it can be concluded that the
SOEC e solid oxide electrolysis cell, and iv) AEM e anion ex- electrolyzer industry's focus is currently in Europe. However,
change membrane electrolysis. In order to gain a deeper as central and western Europe does not have as much
insight into the differences between these four water renewable energy potential as other countries, it becomes
apparent that there will be significant international sales of evaluate if the electrolyzer manufacturing capacities will be
electrolyzers into other regions. sufficient to fill the prospected green hydrogen demand in
Besides the geographical distribution of electrolyzer com- 2030. To analyze the market development, two forecast sce-
panies, a detailed analysis of manufacturing capacities was narios were defined:
performed. It is challenging to evaluate the production ca-
pacities for water electrolyzers, as the market for commercial Forecast Scenario 1: All manufacturing capacities are
water electrolyzers is just forming. Some companies have not assumed to be utilized in this scenario. This means from
disclosed their current production capacities, either because 2022 to 2025 all announced manufacturing capacities are
they are in the process of being established or because the used.
production capacities are to be increased significantly in the Forecast Scenario 2: This scenario assumes a 50% utiliza-
coming years. Therefore, a detailed analysis of announce- tion of manufacturing capacities between 2022 and 2025
ments and press reports was performed to evaluate the cur- and 80% between 2026 and 2028 to reflect the current
rent and announced water electrolyzer production capacities. market development. This assumption is derived from the
As a result, it was possible to gather information for 20 of project analysis section, which revealed the availability of
these companies and quantify the manufacturing capacity the electrolysis capacity 3e5 years after FID. In this sense,
ramp-up from 2021 to 2025 using existing and announced we assume that on average two years are needed for the
capacities. (Remark: The indication of production capacities construction of the electrolyzer in gigawatt scale, which
does not mean that the manufacturers actually use these ca- means that the first hydrogen production will take place
pacities.) Fig. 5 shows the manufacturing capacities for water two years after the suppliers have manufactured the
electrolyzers from 2021 to 2025 based on the gathered infor- electrolyzer.
mation. For the year 2021, the worldwide electrolyzer pro-
duction capacities were indicated by the manufacturers at Since companies have not yet announced additional
approx. 6 GW per year. In the period until 2025, these pro- manufacturing capacity increases for 2026 to 2030, a further
duction capacities will more than triple from approx. 6 GW to ramp-up of manufacturing capacities is estimated. This
more than 20 GW per year. From the technology point of view, approach is based on the assumption that existing companies
most of these capacities are AEL electrolyzers (approx. 10 GW) will increase production volumes, and more and more com-
and PEM electrolyzers (more than 10 GW). As the market starts panies will enter the market or even expand further as the
to develop, it can be presumed that additional manufacturing hydrogen market develops. In this work, the capacity for the
capacities will be built between 2025 and 2030, especially year 2025 is used as basis for the forecast for the years
when considering that further 19 companies did not yet 2026e2030. For this manufacturing capacity ramp-up three
publish their current and announced manufacturing capac- market scenarios were developed to evaluate different market
ities or just announced to enter the market. formations in the coming years:
Forecast of installed electrolysis capacities until 2030 Market scenario 1: average manufacturing capacity growth
rate of 10% p.a. from 2026 to 2030 (conservative estimation)
As shown in Fig. 5 the companies announced a significant Market scenario 2: average manufacturing growth rate of
increase in manufacturing capacities over the next four years. 40% p.a. from 2026 to 2030 (extrapolation of the average
In this section, a forecast of installed capacities is created to growth rate from 2021 to 2025)
Market scenario 3: average growth rate of 200% p.a. from
2026 to 2030 (necessary to achieve approx. 720 GW installed
capacity in 2030 in order to reach Net Zero)4
Fig. 6 shows the result of forecasting installed capacities

between 2023 and 2030. In forecast scenario 1, all electrolyzer
manufacturing capacities will be used and deployed no later
than two years after their establishment. With the existing
and announced capacities and an average annual growth rate
of 10% p.a. between 2026 and 2030 (market scenario 1) an
installed capacity of around 150 GW will be operational in
2030, which would not be sufficient to fill the projected de-
mand of 15 Mt H2 from the IRENA study, as the operating
hours necessary would be unreasonably high. With an
average growth rate of 40% p.a. between 2026 and 2030
(market scenario 2), the installed capacity in forecast scenario
1 will reach approx. 200 GW in 2030, which will be sufficient to
Fig. 5 e Cumulated electrolyzer manufacturing capacities fill the prospected demand from IRENA assuming average
in gigawatt sorted by technology (2021e2025). [PEM - operating hours of 4000 h/a (see Table 3). In order to reach
polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis, AEL - alkaline these operating hours, these electrolyzers have to be installed
electrolysis, SOEC - solid oxide electrolysis cell, and AEM -
4
anion exchange membrane electrolysis]. Net Zero assumption from IEA [4].
Fig. 6 e Installed capacity in GW for a) forecast scenario 1 with 100% of manufacturing capacities used and deployed after
two years and b) forecast scenario 2 with 50% manufacturing capacity used between 2022 and 2025 and 80% between 2026
and 2028 deployed after 2 years depending on the three different market scenarios.
in regions with a high renewable energy potential (e.g., in studies on future hydrogen requirements and demands are
Middle East/North Africa (MENA) states, south of Europe or being published at ever shorter intervals by various in-
South America). Taking into consideration that in some re- stitutions and interest groups. In this meta-analysis 25
gions only 2000 operating hours will be feasible, the country roadmaps and the EU roadmap as well as 18 different
manufacturing capacity must increase by more than 40% from studies were analyzed in relation to future hydrogen demand.
2026 to 2030. Market scenario 3 assumes a growth rate of 200% It becomes clear that most of these studies are normative
for the manufacturing capacities starting in 2026. If these ca- studies and in the rarest cases, the hydrogen demands are
pacities are fully used and deployed two years later, the specified based on the industry needs or the feasibility of
installed capacity will reach around 900 GW in 2030, which realistic implementation. Furthermore, most of the studies
would actually exceed the IEA's scenario projection for 2030 and country roadmaps assume different hydrogen production
for achieving the net zero climate targets by 2045 [4]. routes, areas of application, and implementation speeds. For
Forecast scenario 2 is based on the assumption that not all these reasons, the resulting hydrogen demands differ drasti-
manufacturing capacities are fully used. Based on the fact that cally from 77 to 212 Mt/a hydrogen for 2030 to 148e660 Mt/a
many companies are still in the build-up phase and are hydrogen for 2050, and only a part of this demand in 2030 will
gradually ramping up their production capacities, this fore- be filled from green hydrogen.
cast scenario leads to lower installed capacities. However, this Based on the assumption that many countries will rely on
also means that in market scenario 1 and 2 it is not possible to green hydrogen in the medium to long term in order to ach-
reach the prospected demand of IRENA (see Table 3). To reach ieve climate targets, the required installed electrolysis ca-
approx. 720 GW installed capacities in 2030 a higher pacities to meet green hydrogen demand were calculated. The
manufacturing growth than 200% would be needed. calculations show that, depending on the electrolyzer oper-
Even though it can be assumed that production increases ating strategy, 48e720 GW of electrolysis capacity are needed
significantly as soon as market demand increases, these fig- by 2030. In order to assess how realistic and feasible these
ures are almost unimaginably large at this point. Neverthe- implementations actually are, announced hydrogen projects
less, it is clear from the forecast scenarios that electrolyzer were analyzed in terms of their size and degree of imple-
installations have to speed up and that electrolyzer mentation. The evaluation of these projects has shown that
manufacturing capacities have to significantly increase in especially large projects in the gigawatt range require up to 10
order to achieve the climate targets. Every year of delay in years from the initial feasibility analysis, through FID and
installing electrolysis plants also delays the achievement of construction of the plants, to the first hydrogen production.
climate targets and increases the pressure on the expansion of These are extremely long periods of time, certainly caused by
manufacturing and production capacities even more. the just forming market for green hydrogen, which will have
to be drastically reduced in the coming years if the assumed
green hydrogen demand is to be actually covered in the future.
Conclusion However, not only do the project timeframes play a deci-
sive role in the successful implementation of the strategies,
Driven by demands to meet global climate targets and tight- but also, whether sufficient electrolyzer manufacturing ca-
ening climate regulations, more and more countries are pub- pacities exist or are being built up during the following years.
lishing their climate and hydrogen strategies. In addition, To shed more light on this, a global market research of water
electrolysis stack and system suppliers was performed. A total been discussed in other works, and it would go beyond the
of 39 companies worldwide were identified offering four scope of this study to shed additional light on these aspects.
different technologies (PEM, AEL, SOEC and AEM) of water
electrolysis. 20 of these companies indicated their existing
manufacturing capacities and/or announced the future Declaration of competing interest
expansion of these capacities. Evaluations of these an-
nouncements show that there is currently about 6 GW of The authors declare that they have no known competing
electrolyzer manufacturing capacity worldwide and that this financial interests or personal relationships that could have
capacity is expected to increase to more than 20 GW by 2025. appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
In terms of the water electrolysis technologies used, more
than 45% each are PEM and AEL.
It is important to note at this point that the existence of
Acknowledgment
manufacturing capacities does not necessarily mean that they
will actually be called up. For this reason, different forecast
The research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of
and market scenarios were assumed in order to analyze the
Education and Research under the grant no. 03HY102.
necessary increase in installed electrolysis capacity and
expansion of electrolyzer manufacturing capacities by 2030 in
more detail. In short, the different scenarios show that in
Appendix
order to meet the demand of approx. 720 GW installed elec-
trolyzer capacity, a manufacturing growth rate of more than Appendix A. Conversion of units
200% p.a. would be needed between 2025 and 2030. Every year
in which the production capacities are not called up further For the calculation of the installed capacities depending on
increases this growth rate. the operating hours an electrolysis efficiency of 5 kWh/Nm3 of
It should also be noted that not only the electrolyzer H2 and for the mass conversion of hydrogen a standard den-
manufacturing capacities play a decisive role in the successful sity of 0.08988 kg/Nm3 is assumed in this article.
implementation of the different country roadmaps. Also is-
sues such as the expansion of renewable energies, financing Appendix B. Studies for meta-analysis
options, and the conversion of the hydrogen user industries
are relevant points to consider. Indeed, these aspects have
Table B1 e List of studies published by various institutions including the names of the documents and the publication
dates which have been analyzed during the meta-analysis (hyperlinks only online). Latest access date for all websites
30.04.2022.
Name of the Institution Name of the Document Date Link
Bloomberg NEF Hydrogen Economy Outlook March 2020 https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/
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Hydrogen Council Hydrogen Scaling Up [76] November 2017 https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
uploads/2017/11/Hydrogen-scaling-up-
Hydrogen-Council.pdf
Hydrogen Council Path to Hydrogen January 2020 https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
Competitiveness: A Cost uploads/2020/01/Path-to-Hydrogen-
Perspective [77] Competitiveness_Full-Study-1.pdf
Hydrogen Council Hydrogen Insights: A February 2021 https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
perspective on hydrogen uploads/2021/02/Hydrogen-Insights-2021-
investment, market Report.pdf
development and cost
competitiveness [78]
Hydrogen Council Hydrogen for Net Zero: A November 2021 https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
Critical Cost-Competitive uploads/2021/11/Hydrogen-for-Net-Zero.pdf
Energy Vector [9]
IEA The Future of Hydrogen [41] June 2019 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/
9e3a3493-b9a6-4b7d-b499-7ca48e357561/
The_Future_of_Hydrogen.pdf
IEA Energy Technology September 2020 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/
Perspectives 2020 [79] 7f8aed40-89af-4348-be19-c8a67df0b9ea/
Energy_Technology_Perspectives_2020_PDF.pdf
IEA Power-to-X Demonstration June 2021 https://www.ieahydrogen.org/
Roadmap [80]
Table B1 e (continued )
Name of the Institution Name of the Document Date Link
IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2021 October 2021 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/
[4] 5bd46d7b-906a-4429-abda-e9c507a62341/
GlobalHydrogenReview2021.pdf
IRENA Global energy transformation: April 2019 https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Apr/
A roadmap to 2050 (2019 Global-energy-transformation-A-roadmap-to-
edition) [10] 2050-2019Edition
IRENA Green hydrogen cost reduction: December 2020 https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Dec/
Scaling Up Electrolysers to Green-hydrogen-cost-reduction
meet the 1.5 C Climate Goal [81]
IRENA Decarbonising end-use sectors: May 2021 https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/May/
Practical insights on green Decarbonising-end-use-sectors-green-hydrogen
hydrogen [6]
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Global%20Energy%20Perspective%202021/Global-
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Building the green hydrogen market e Current

Mona Wappler a,*, Dilek Unguder a, Xing Lu a, Hendrik Ohlmeyer a,

highlights graphical abstract

Analysis of 25 hydrogen country

article info abstract

Keywords: roadmaps as part of a meta-analysis. Furthermore, a market analysis of electrolyzer

Electrolyzer manufacturing demand forecasts can be filled.

sense, policymakers are working on roadmaps and imple-

conclude that even with a low (1.54%) methane emission rate,

In a recent study, IEA also provided information about

Fig. 6 shows the result of forecasting installed capacities

BNEF-Hydrogen-Economy-Outlook-Key-Messages-30-Mar- [80] de Rivaz S, Tlili O, Lucchese P. Power-to-X demonstration

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