ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF POST GRADUATE STUDIES

HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

MASTERS THESIS PROPOSAL ON:

BY: - DAWIT TAMIRAT

ADVISOR: - Dr. SAMUEL DAGALO

April, 2017
 ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET

This is to certify that the thesis proposal entitled “SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY
AND DEMAND FOR THE CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS IN
AWASH RIVER BASIN” has been developed by Dawit Tamirat. Id No.RMSc./138/08,
under my/our supervision. Therefore I/we recommend that the student’s proposal can be
presented for review and open oral presentation.

Approved by: - Dr. SAMUEL DAGALO _____________ ________________

Signature Date

I
 ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET

We the examiners’ board approve that this thesis proposal entitled with “SURFACE WATER
AVAILABILITY AND DEMAND FOR THE CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE
CONDITIONS IN AWASH RIVER BASIN” has been developed by Dawit Tamirat. Id
number RMSc./138/08, under my or our supervision. Therefore I/we recommend that the
student’s proposal can be presented for review and open oral presentation.

Approved by:-

_______________ ________________ _________________

Chairperson Signature Date

_______________ _______________ _________________

Internal Examiner Signature Date

_______________ _______________ ________________

Principal Advisor Signature Date

_______________ _______________ ________________

Co-Advisor Signature Date

_________________ ________________ ________________

PG Coordinator Signature Date

_________________ ________________ ________________

Department Head Signature Date

II
 Contents
1 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................1

1.1 Background.................................................................................................................1

1.2 Statement of the problem............................................................................................2

1.3 Objectives....................................................................................................................3

1.3.1 Specific objectives...............................................................................................3

1.4 Research questions......................................................................................................3

1.5 Significance of study and expected outcome..............................................................3

2 LITERATURE REVIEW..................................................................................................4

2.1 Definitions and concepts.............................................................................................4

2.2 Overview of surface water potential...........................................................................5

2.3 Overview of surface water demand............................................................................5

2.4 Climate change............................................................................................................6

2.5 Previous studies in the area.........................................................................................7

3 MATERIALS AND METHODS......................................................................................8

3.1 Description of the study area......................................................................................8

3.2 Material.......................................................................................................................9

3.3 Methodology...............................................................................................................9

3.4 Selection criteria for hydrological models................................................................10

3.5 Hydrologic models....................................................................................................10

4 WORK SCHEDULE.......................................................................................................12

5 FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS....................................................................................13

6 REFERENCES................................................................................................................14

III
INTRODUCTION

Background

Water is a basic necessity for sustaining life and development of a society. With the
increasing population including urbanization, economic growth, industrial production,
agricultural and livestock production, demand for water has increased rapidly over the years
(GWP 2000). The demand for water resources of sufficient quantity and quality for human
consumption, sanitation, agriculture, and industrial uses will continue to increase as the
population increases and global urbanization, industrialization, and commercial development
accelerate (Flint 2004).

Water resources around the world are already stressed by rapid population increases, rising
demand, and limited supply. In many regions, climate change will exacerbate existing
stresses, leading to increased competition for water resources and raising the specter of water
shortages. Exactly how climate change will affect a specific region’s water resources is
dependent on physical and social characteristics unique to each region.

Ethiopia’s water resources have been typically characterized by high variability in terms of
both their seasonal and geographical distribution. Climate change is expected to increase this
variability, although the uncertainty surrounding climate projections for Ethiopia is
significant. What we know is that more regular heavy rainfall events will probably occur,
resulting in flooding and degraded soil quality. Higher rainfall variability and upward
temperature trends across the country will also cause more intense and frequent drought
events in certain regions. However, this is not the whole story. Climate change has a negative
effect on Ethiopia’s water resources. In the last 5-10 years Ethiopia raised abrupt population
growth and economic development and these results in high demand of water resources (and
will continue to do so). In certain ‘hotspots’, such as the Awash River Basin, instances of
conflict between downstream and upstream irrigators, and/or between water uses for
irrigation and hydropower generation, are already evident (Beatrice et al. 2015).

Therefore, water resource management is one of the main challenges of the world today. In
order to meet the demands of different users, tangible efforts should be made for the efficient
use of all water resources.

1
Statement of the problem

Assessment of water resources potential at the basin, regional or national scales has been
undertaken in many occasions and in different countries of the world. However, such
assessments have not always been as effective as they might have been and have been
constrained by lack of sufficient and quality data. Good quality, long-term records of climate
(particularly precipitation), river flows, reservoir levels and groundwater levels are vital to
ensure that current assessments of available freshwater resources are accurate. Unfortunately,
in many parts of the world, national decision-makers and ministries of finance consistently
have failed to appreciate the importance of maintaining long-term, good quality
environmental records. Throughout much of Africa in particular, there is marked annual
variability in precipitation inputs and the resulting river flows, lake storages and groundwater
levels (Servat et al. 1998).

Ethiopia has a generous potential of water, but this water is distributed unevenly in space and
time. Unmitigated hydrological variability, compounded by climate change, has been
estimated to cost the country roughly one third of its growth potential. Best and worst case
scenarios for climate change impacts over the coming decades foresee a reduction of gross
domestic product (GDP) growth by 2% and 10% per year, respectively (World Bank 2006).

Besides decreases in rainfall amount, increased industrial, agricultural and domestic water
abstraction and poor water management aggravates the problem of water scarcity from time
to time. More recently, lack of proper water resources management and huge competition for
the available water resources has largely intensified water scarcity. There are few studies
conducted with regard to water scarcity in the Awash River basin. For example, Dereje et al.
(2016) have studied the water potential and its scarcity in the Awash River basin. However,
earlier studies were mainly conducted with general assumptions and without taking due
consideration of the existing large demands in the commercial farms. Through field surveys
may be needed in such cases. Further, the surface water potential of the basin under climate
changed conditions was not studied in detail. In general, no effort has been made to assess
the water supply and demand situation and identified the major challenges of water resource
planning of the basin.

2
Objectives

The general objective of the study is to assess surface water potential and demand for the
current and future climate conditions in Awash River basin for integrated water resource
management system by using different models.

Specific objectives

 To estimate the current total surface water potential and demand of the river basin.
 To estimate the surface water potential under climate changed condition.
 To analyze rainfall records and demarcate the location of gauging station.
 To develop effective water management techniques under climate change and to
make recommendation for future water management strategies.

Research questions

How much surface water is available in the Awash River basin?

What are the factors that affect surface water quantity, supply and demand in the basin?

Is there sufficient surface water potential for planned projects in the basin?

How demand could change under climate changed conditions in the future?

Significance of study and expected outcome

The ultimate goal of this study is to manage water resources in an integrated way. Therefore,
the findings of this study not only contributes to enhance the knowledge base, but will also
contributes to informed decision making in water resources planning and development in the
Awash River basin. This study is expected to contribute a lot to the endeavor and alleviating
the different problems occurring in the basin.

3
LITERATURE REVIEW

Definitions and concepts

Water is necessary for human, animal and plant life. It is essential for overall human well-
being and supports all aspects of human livelihoods. Furthermore, water plays an important
role in supporting productive human activities such as agricultural, energy and industrial
production, sanitation, transportation services, fishing and tourism (UNEP 2009).

Ethiopia is currently experiencing significant natural and socioeconomic changes, which are
putting pressure on water resources by modifying their availability and demand. Because of
its geography and climate, Ethiopia has always been characterized by high hydrological
variability, compounded by the absence of water storage and highly vulnerable watershed
(World Bank 2006: 3). Climate change is expected to worsen such variability and scarcity
(Conway and Schipper 2011).

On the other hand, climate change that increases overall water availability could either be
beneficial or could increase the risk of flooding. Regions with an arid and semi-arid climate
could be sensitive to even insignificant changes in climatic characteristics (Linz et al. 1990)

Water is the single most important element of the environment. The availability of water
largely determines the spatial pattern of the earth’s terrestrial biomes (forest, grasslands and
deserts). It covers 71 % of the earth’s surface providing habitat for fresh and saltwater
ecosystems. Water is a major controlling element of the earth’s climate, and it is largely
responsible for sculpting the earth’s surface into the infinitely complex associations of
erosional and depositional landforms. Water makes life on earth possible, and, to a large
extent, water makes the earth itself. Surface water is water that is on the earth’s surface, such
as in a stream, river, lake, or reservoir. Surface water is a valuable resource which can be
used for public, industrial and agricultural supply purposes. Surface water courses also
provide important natural environment and leisure resources. Therefore, understanding
surface water resources and its availability is a key aspect of water resource assessment and
evaluation (Tadesse et al. 2006).

4
Overview of surface water potential

The global water demand will primarily grow due to population and economic growth, rapid
urbanization and the increasing demand for food and energy (GWP 2009). Therefore,
assessing water resource availability of relevant spatial and temporal scales is of major
importance (Yang and Zander 2007). In fact, many countries have developed a capacity to
assess the availability of freshwater resources for many decades (WMO 2012).

A systematic assessment of water resources availability with high spatial and temporal
resolution is essential in a basin for strategic decision-making on water resource related
development projects; a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes in the
watershed is a pre requisite for successful water management and environmental restoration.
A hydrologic cycle such as precipitation, evaporation/evapotranspiration, and runoff or
stream flow is a complex system due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in soil
properties, vegetation and land use practices. As a result mathematical models and geospatial
analysis tools are required for studying hydrological process and hydrological responses.
There is also a need to develop method for predicting flow at un-gauged sites. One of the
most common approaches used for estimating flow of un-gauged catchments is the use of
rainfall-runoff models whose parameters is going to be regionalized, as catchments with
similar characteristics show similar hydrological behavior (Woinishet 2009).

Overview of surface water demand

Water demand forecasting is a process achieved through several techniques and is typically
used to predict future water requirements for different uses including hydropower, domestic
and agriculture water demands. The type of technique used depends on the availability of the
data, the general scope of the region for which the forecast is being conducted, and the
resources available to the organization for which the forecast is being conducted. For all
intensive purposes, future water demand is derived from basic functions. For instance,
municipal demand is generally projected using population size and the number of
households, industrial demand is often based on number of employees, and agricultural
demand commonly relies on crop type and irrigated land water resources planning (Dzurik
1996).

5
The water resources availability assessment requires detailed insights into hydrological
processes. However, studying the complexity of hydrological processes, needed for
sustainable basin management depends on the understanding of rainfall characteristics and
basin properties (Abushandi 2011). Thus, water systems should be designed to meet present
and future water demands, while maintaining a range of hydrologic variation necessary to
preserve the ecological and environmental integrity of the basin (Loucks 1997).

At the same time water demand for both domestic and productive uses is expected to grow
rapidly in the near future. Currently utilization of water resources is very limited including
domestic and minor agricultural activities, mainly due to the use of rain fed cultivation.
However, knowledge and understanding of surface water and their interactions with spatial
and temporal variability are essential for the present and future assessment of water resource
availability.

Climate change

Climate change has emerged as an increasing concern among water planners and managers
around the globe, as it is likely to change water management tasks by altering the availability
of freshwater resources and by changing water demand patterns. Rises in temperature and
changes in rainfall patterns are expected to occur in many parts of the world due to the
potential changes in the future climatic conditions (IPCC, 2007). These changes are likely to
affect the water balance at local, regional and global scales in a negative way, which will
make a challenging task for River basin.

Climate change holds several negative impacts on water capacity of storage reservoirs.
Higher temperatures will increase evaporation losses from lakes and reservoirs following,
more intense precipitation event will lead to greater reservoir inflow volume change. Despite
the fact that the impact of different climate change scenarios is forecasted at a global scale,
the exact type and magnitude of the impact at a small watershed scale remains untouched in
most parts of the world. Hence, identifying the local impact of climate change at a watershed
level is quite important. This gives an opportunity to identify the degree of vulnerability of
local water resources and plan appropriate adaptation measures that must be taken ahead of

6
time. Moreover this will give enough room to consider possible future risks in all phases of
water resource development projects (Zeray 2006).

The climate of the Awash Basin is influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
(ICTZ), a zone of low pressure that marks the convergence of dry tropical easterlies and
moist equatorial westerly’s. As this zone migrates northwards across the basin it causes the
small or spring rains in March and at its northernmost position (attained in June/July) it
results in the heavy summer rains.

Generally, climate change has a great influence on water resources and all the reservoirs are
under this circumstance. Hence identifying the impact of climate change on the reservoirs
and suggesting adaptation measures to cope with associated problem is highly important.

Previous studies in the area

There were various studies conducted on 12 Ethiopian river basins, investigations on their
potentials and demands including national master plan study (WAPCOS 1990). The total
runoff from these basins was estimated around 122 BCM per year (Ethiopian River basin
master plan studies). Hence, this study will target brief information about the basin for
planners or designers or any concerned body and it will address improper management of
Awash River basin by using hydrological models such as WEAP and SWAT and comparing
the results with previous studies. Understanding the general trends of assessment of surface
water potential and demands will result in safe utilization of the resource.

In Awash River basin, satisfying water demand for agricultural production is an integral part
of food self-sufficiency and employment opportunity for the community living in the basin,
since agriculture is the foundation of the economy and it employs more than 80 % of the
rural population in the country. To calculate the water balance of the basin, the demand of
water for different uses is required (Dereje et al. 2015).

7
MATERIALS AND METHODS

Description of the study area

There are 12 river basins in Ethiopia. The total runoff from these basins was estimated
around 122 BCM per year (Ethiopian River basin master plan studies). The Awash River
basin is one of the river basins in Ethiopia which originates from west central Ethiopia,
located between 7°53´N and 12° N latitude and 37°57´E and 43°25´E longitude. It originates
at an average altitude of 3000 m above sea level to the west of Addis Ababa, the capital city
of the country. After flowing to the southeast for about 250 km, the river enters into the Great
Rift Valley at an altitude of 1500 m, and then follows in the valley for the rest of its course
and enters into Lake Abe on the border with the Djibouti Republic, at an altitude of about
250 m. The total length of the river is about 1200 km and its catchment area is 112, 696 km 2.
The climate of the Awash River Basin varies from humid subtropical over central Ethiopia to
arid over the Afar lowlands (Daniel 1977, Lemma 1996). The Awash River basin was
divided into 3 sub catchments: upper (upstream from Koka Dam station), middle (between
Koka and Awash station), and lower (between Awash and Tendaho station) for a better
resolution in the calibration and simulation routines.

8
Fig.1 Ethiopian river basins Map

Fig-2 Awash river basin

Material

In this study different scale of secondary data will be collected from various sources.

The hydrology of the basin was characterized by slope, land use, soil, rainfall, temperature,
evapotranspiration, and runoff. In order to determine the basic hydrologic parameters,
meteorological data will be collected from the nearby stations.

1. Hydrological data
2. Metrological data
3. Land use land cover data
4. Soil data

Methodology

In this study two main tools such as WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) and SWAT
(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to estimate the demand and to assess surface water

9
potential of the river basin will be used. The assessment will involve collecting and screening
required data, selecting and building the rainfall–runoff model, calibrating the simulated
flows for the basin, and analyzing and interpreting the results.

The assessment model used to operate is the WEAP model at sub catchment scale and on a
monthly time-step. The base period of the study taken into account is from year 1990 to 2009
while for future water availability the period is 2010 to 2030. The computation of the
assessment model will be by computing the entire model for the reference scenario, a default
scenario that was generated using the current accounts information for the period of time
specified for this study (1990-2030). Current accounts year is chosen to serve as the base
year of the assessment model. The scenarios of future performance are projected up to the
year 2030.

Selection criteria for hydrological models

A hydrological model is selected based on different aspects including data availability, cost
effectiveness and accessibility. Further, the robustness of the model for the intended purpose
is also important.

Hydrologic models

Based on the above criteria SWAT and WEAP models will be selected.

1) WEAP model
Water resources system simulation modeling helps to understand the relationship between
available water for demand under existing conditions and future development scenarios. It
has been applied in water assessments in over one hundred countries. WEAP is one of the
Water Evaluation and Planning System model and is originally developed by the Stockholm
Environment Institute at Boston, USA (SEI, 2015).Operating on the basic principle of a
water balance, WEAP is applicable to municipal and agricultural systems, single catchments
or complex trans-boundary river systems. Moreover, WEAP can address a wide range of
issues, e.g., sectorial demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation
priorities, groundwater and stream flow simulations, reservoir operations, hydropower

10
generation, pollution tracking, ecosystem requirements, vulnerability assessments, and
project benefit-cost analyses.

So for this study WEAP model is selected because of its inclusive, straightforward, easy-to-
use, flexible data input and possibility to model the impact of climate change scenarios on
Awash River basin.

2. SWAT model.

US Department of Agriculture – Agriculture Research Service (USDA-ARS), developed the

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. It is a conceptual model that functions on a
continuous time step. Model components include weather, hydrology, erosion/sedimentation,
plant growth, nutrients, pesticides, agricultural management, channel routing, and
pond/reservoir routing.

Recently several researchers used WEAP and SWAT tool for their study area some of them
are:-

No WEAP SWAT Authors name Study area Year

1   Tilahun Araya Genale dawa River basin 2015

2   Setogn Abate Tekeze River basin 2015

3   Muhammed Alkasim Baro akobo river Basin 2016
4   Dereje Adeba, M. L. Awash River basin 2015
Kansal, Sumit Sen

11
WORK SCHEDULE

Components of Months
thesis work March April May June July August Septembe Octob
r er
1.Preparatory
works and
literature review
1.1. Desk study

2.Data collection
2.1 Hydrological
&meteorological
2.2Topographic
2.3Soilandland
3. Data analysis
and discussions
4.Model running,
calibration and
Validation

5.Result and
conclusion
6.Thesis writing,
completion of
work
7.Final report
submission &
Presentation

12
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS

1) Transportation and per diem cost

Number of items Unit Quantity Unit Total cost
cost(Birr) (Birr)
Transport for data collection Lump
sum - - 2000.00
Per diem Field 6 500 3,000.00
days
2) Material cost
1.Printing paper Pcs 5 120 600.00
2.Laptop computer Number 1 10,000 12,000.00
3.Purchasing relevant
materials (journals, books, Lump - 7000 7,000.00
note book, pens) sum
3) Service cost
1.Photocopying Lump sump
- 0.50 1000.00
2.Communication Lump sum - - 1000.00
3.Internet Services Lump sum - - 1000.00
4.printing the materials Lump sum - 1.00 1000.00
Total 28,600.0
cost 0

13
REFERENCES

1- Abushandi, E.H., 2011. Rainfall-Runoff Modeling in Arid Areas. PhD Thesis, faculty for
geosciences, geotechnique and mining of the technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg,
Germany.

2- Beatrice Mosello, Roger Calow, Josephine Tucker, Helen Parker, Tena Alamirew, Seifu
Kebede, Tesfay Alemseged, Assefa Gudina. (2015) ‟Building adaptive water resources
management in Ethiopia”.

3-Conway, D. and Schipper, E.L.F. (2011) ‘Adaptation to climate change in Africa:

Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia’, global environmental change. 21:
227-237.

4-Dzurik, Andrew A. (1996): Water resources development planning, 2nd edition.

5-Dereje Adeba, M. L. Kansal & Sumit Sen., 2015. Sustainable water resource management
(2015) 1:71–87

6-GWP (Global Water Partnership), 2009. A handbook for integrated water resources
management in basins.

7-Global Water Partnership (GWP). Integrated water resources management (TAC

background paper no. 4); GWP: Stockholm, Sweden, 2000.

8-Flint R.W. (2004): The sustainable development of water resources, UCOWR. Journal of
contemporary water research and education, 127: 41–54.

9- Linz H, Shiklomanov I, Mostefakara K (1990) Chapter 4, Hydrology and water. In: Likely
impact of climate change. IPCC WGII report, WMO/UNEP, Geneva

10-Loucks, D. P., 1997. Quantifying trends in system sustainability. Hydrol. Sci. J., 42(4),
513–530.

11-Nata Tadesse, 2006. Surface waters potential of the Hantebet Basin, Tigray, Northern
Ethiopia. Agricultural Engineering International: CIGRE journal. Manuscript LW 05 010.
Vol. VIII.

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11-Servat, E., D. Hughes, J-M. Fritsch and M. Hulme, 1998: Water resources variability in
Africa during the XXth century. IAHS Publication No. 252.

12-UNEP, 2009. Water security and ecosystem services. The critical connection. A
contribution to the United Nations World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP). Country
done this study (United Nation Environmental Programme (UNEP).

13-World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2012: Technical material for water

resources assessment (WMO-No. 1095), Geneva.

14-Woinishet, H. (2009). Daily rainfall-runoff modeling for the Beles river catchment. MSc
thesis. Addis Ababa University.

15- WB (The World Bank) (2006) World Bank’s 2006 country water resources assistance
strategy, Ethiopia–managing water resources to maximize sustainable growth. Washington,
DC: The World Bank, Washington

16-Yang, H.,Zehnder, A., 2007 "Virtual Water": An unfolding concept in integrated water
resources management, water resources Research, 43, W12301.

17-Zeray L. (2006) A Climate Change Impact on Lake Ziway Watershed water

availability Ethiopia, MSc Thesis, Cologne, Germany.

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