10/15/23, 10:26 PM kickstarter-success-prediction - Jupyter Notebook

Getting Started
In [1]:  import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
​
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.utils import class_weight
​
import tensorflow as tf

In [2]:  data = pd.read_csv('../input/kickstarter-projects/ks-projects-201801.csv')

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In [3]:  data

Out[3]:
ID name category main_category currency deadline goa

The Songs of
2015-10-
0 1000002330 Adelaide & Poetry Publishing GBP 1000.0
09
Abullah

Greeting From
Earth: ZGAC Narrative 2017-11-
1 1000003930 Film & Video USD 30000.0
Arts Capsule Film 01
For ET

Where is Narrative 2013-02-

2 1000004038 Film & Video USD 45000.0
Hank? Film 26

ToshiCapital
Rekordz
2012-04-
3 1000007540 Needs Help to Music Music USD 5000.0
16
Complete
Album

Community
Film Project: 2015-08-
4 1000011046 Film & Video Film & Video USD 19500.0
The Art of 29
Neighborhoo...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

ChknTruk
Nationwide
2014-10-
378656 999976400 Charity Drive Documentary Film & Video USD 50000.0
17
2014
(Canceled)

Narrative 2011-07-
378657 999977640 The Tribe Film & Video USD 1500.0
Film 19

Walls of
Remedy- New
Narrative 2010-08-
378658 999986353 lesbian Film & Video USD 15000.0
Film 16
Romantic
Comedy f...

BioDefense 2016-02-
378659 999987933 Technology Technology USD 15000.0
Education Kit 13

Nou Renmen
Performance 2011-08-
378660 999988282 Ayiti! We Love Art USD 2000.0
Art 16
Haiti!

378661 rows × 15 columns

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In [4]:  data.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 378661 entries, 0 to 378660
Data columns (total 15 columns):
# Column Non-Null Count Dtype
--- ------ -------------- -----
0 ID 378661 non-null int64
1 name 378657 non-null object
2 category 378661 non-null object
3 main_category 378661 non-null object
4 currency 378661 non-null object
5 deadline 378661 non-null object
6 goal 378661 non-null float64
7 launched 378661 non-null object
8 pledged 378661 non-null float64
9 state 378661 non-null object
10 backers 378661 non-null int64
11 country 378661 non-null object
12 usd pledged 374864 non-null float64
13 usd_pledged_real 378661 non-null float64
14 usd_goal_real 378661 non-null float64
dtypes: float64(5), int64(2), object(8)
memory usage: 43.3+ MB

Cleaning and Preprocessing

In [5]:  unneeded_columns = ['ID', 'name']
​
data = data.drop(unneeded_columns, axis=1)

In [6]:  data.isna().sum()

Out[6]: category 0
main_category 0
currency 0
deadline 0
goal 0
launched 0
pledged 0
state 0
backers 0
country 0
usd pledged 3797
usd_pledged_real 0
usd_goal_real 0
dtype: int64

In [7]:  data['usd pledged'] = data['usd pledged'].fillna(data['usd pledged'].mean(

In [8]:  data.isna().sum().sum()
Out[8]: 0

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In [9]:  data['state'].unique()

Out[9]: array(['failed', 'canceled', 'successful', 'live', 'undefined',

'suspended'], dtype=object)

In [10]:  data = data.drop(data.query("state != 'failed' and state != 'successful'")

In [11]:  data['state'].unique()

Out[11]: array(['failed', 'successful'], dtype=object)

In [12]:  data

Out[12]:
category main_category currency deadline goal launched pledged s

2015-08-
2015-10-
0 Poetry Publishing GBP 1000.0 11 0.0 fa
09
12:12:28

2017-09-
Narrative 2017-11-
1 Film & Video USD 30000.0 02 2421.0 fa
Film 01
04:43:57

2013-01-
Narrative 2013-02-
2 Film & Video USD 45000.0 12 220.0 fa
Film 26
00:20:50

2012-03-
2012-04-
3 Music Music USD 5000.0 17 1.0 fa
16
03:24:11

2016-02-
2016-04-
4 Restaurants Food USD 50000.0 26 52375.0 succes
01
13:38:27

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

2017-03-
2017-04-
331670 Small Batch Food USD 6500.0 20 154.0 fa
19
22:08:22

2011-06-
Narrative 2011-07-
331671 Film & Video USD 1500.0 22 155.0 fa
Film 19
03:35:14

2010-07-
Narrative 2010-08-
331672 Film & Video USD 15000.0 01 20.0 fa
Film 16
19:40:30

2016-01-
2016-02-
331673 Technology Technology USD 15000.0 13 200.0 fa
13
18:13:53

2011-07-
Performance 2011-08-
331674 Art USD 2000.0 19 524.0 fa
Art 16
09:07:47

331675 rows × 13 columns

Feature Engineering and Encoding

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In [13]:  data['deadline_year'] = data['deadline'].apply(lambda x: np.float(x[0:4]))

data['deadline_month'] = data['deadline'].apply(lambda x: np.float(x[5:7])
​
data['launched_year'] = data['launched'].apply(lambda x: np.float(x[0:4]))
data['launched_month'] = data['launched'].apply(lambda x: np.float(x[5:7])
​
data = data.drop(['deadline', 'launched'], axis=1)

In [14]:  data['state'] = data['state'].apply(lambda x: 1 if x == 'successful' else

In [15]:  {column: list(data[column].unique()) for column in data.columns if data.dt

Out[15]: {'category': ['Poetry',

'Narrative Film',
'Music',
'Restaurants',
'Food',
'Drinks',
'Nonfiction',
'Indie Rock',
'Crafts',
'Games',
'Tabletop Games',
'Design',
'Comic Books',
'Art Books',
'Fashion',
'Childrenswear',
'Theater',
'Comics',
'DIY',
'W b i '
In [16]:  def onehot_encode(df, columns, prefixes):
df = df.copy()
for column, prefix in zip(columns, prefixes):
dummies = pd.get_dummies(df[column], prefix=prefix)
df = pd.concat([df, dummies], axis=1)
df = df.drop(column, axis=1)
return df

In [17]:  data = onehot_encode(

data,
['category', 'main_category', 'currency', 'country'],
['cat', 'main_cat', 'curr', 'country']
)

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In [18]:  data

Out[18]: usd
goal pledged state backers usd_pledged_real usd_goal_real deadlin
pledged

0 1000.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 1533.95

1 30000.0 2421.0 0 15 100.0 2421.0 30000.00

2 45000.0 220.0 0 3 220.0 220.0 45000.00

3 5000.0 1.0 0 1 1.0 1.0 5000.00

4 50000.0 52375.0 1 224 52375.0 52375.0 50000.00

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

331670 6500.0 154.0 0 4 0.0 154.0 6500.00

331671 1500.0 155.0 0 5 155.0 155.0 1500.00

331672 15000.0 20.0 0 1 20.0 20.0 15000.00

331673 15000.0 200.0 0 6 200.0 200.0 15000.00

331674 2000.0 524.0 0 17 524.0 524.0 2000.00

331675 rows × 222 columns

Splitting and Scaling

In [19]:  y = data.loc[:, 'state']
X = data.drop('state', axis=1)

In [20]:  scaler = StandardScaler()

​
X = scaler.fit_transform(X)

In [21]:  X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, train_size=0.7,

Modeling and Training

In [22]:  X.shape
Out[22]: (331675, 221)

In [23]:  y.mean()

Out[23]: 0.4038772895153388

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In [24]:  class_weights = class_weight.compute_class_weight(

'balanced',
y_train.unique(),
y_train
)
​
class_weights = dict(enumerate(class_weights))
class_weights
/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/validation.py:70: Fu
tureWarning: Pass classes=[0 1], y=270640 0
72886 0
43654 1
126262 0
250713 0
..
38435 1
199765 0
225014 0
153449 1
305642 0
Name: state, Length: 232172, dtype: int64 as keyword args. From version
0.25 passing these as positional arguments will result in an error
FutureWarning)

Out[24]: {0: 0.8394874242489985, 1: 1.236404302907658}

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In [25]:  inputs = tf.keras.Input(shape=(221,))

x = tf.keras.layers.Dense(64, activation='relu')(inputs)
x = tf.keras.layers.Dense(64, activation='relu')(x)
outputs = tf.keras.layers.Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')(x)
​
model = tf.keras.Model(inputs, outputs)
​
​
model.compile(
optimizer='adam',
loss='binary_crossentropy',
metrics=[
'accuracy',
tf.keras.metrics.AUC(name='auc')
]
)
​
​
batch_size = 64
epochs = 100
​
history = model.fit(
X_train,
y_train,
validation_split=0.2,
class_weight=class_weights,
batch_size=batch_size,
epochs=epochs,
callbacks=[
tf.keras.callbacks.EarlyStopping(
monitor='val_loss',
patience=3,
restore_best_weights=True,
verbose=1
)
],
verbose=2
)

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Epoch 1/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.4499 - accuracy: 0.7913 - auc: 0.8722 - val_los
s: 0.3517 - val_accuracy: 0.8479 - val_auc: 0.9275
Epoch 2/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.3189 - accuracy: 0.8622 - auc: 0.9374 - val_los
s: 0.2883 - val_accuracy: 0.8764 - val_auc: 0.9478
Epoch 3/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.2783 - accuracy: 0.8818 - auc: 0.9525 - val_los
s: 0.2653 - val_accuracy: 0.8897 - val_auc: 0.9585
Epoch 4/100
2903/2903 - 6s - loss: 0.2481 - accuracy: 0.8947 - auc: 0.9624 - val_los
s: 0.2759 - val_accuracy: 0.8839 - val_auc: 0.9571
Epoch 5/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.2263 - accuracy: 0.9045 - auc: 0.9687 - val_los
s: 0.2135 - val_accuracy: 0.9114 - val_auc: 0.9714
Epoch 6/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.2097 - accuracy: 0.9116 - auc: 0.9731 - val_los
s: 0.2329 - val_accuracy: 0.9016 - val_auc: 0.9720
Epoch 7/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.2010 - accuracy: 0.9160 - auc: 0.9752 - val_los
s: 0.2228 - val_accuracy: 0.9042 - val_auc: 0.9749
Epoch 8/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1937 - accuracy: 0.9196 - auc: 0.9770 - val_los
s: 0.1935 - val_accuracy: 0.9214 - val_auc: 0.9781
Epoch 9/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1883 - accuracy: 0.9214 - auc: 0.9783 - val_los
s: 0.1897 - val_accuracy: 0.9208 - val_auc: 0.9771
Epoch 10/100
2903/2903 - 10s - loss: 0.1826 - accuracy: 0.9244 - auc: 0.9796 - val_los
s: 0.1807 - val_accuracy: 0.9256 - val_auc: 0.9795
Epoch 11/100
2903/2903 - 10s - loss: 0.1782 - accuracy: 0.9264 - auc: 0.9805 - val_los
s: 0.1757 - val_accuracy: 0.9286 - val_auc: 0.9819
Epoch 12/100
2903/2903 - 8s - loss: 0.1749 - accuracy: 0.9278 - auc: 0.9813 - val_los
s: 0.1812 - val_accuracy: 0.9243 - val_auc: 0.9792
Epoch 13/100
2903/2903 - 8s - loss: 0.1704 - accuracy: 0.9296 - auc: 0.9821 - val_los
s: 0.1901 - val_accuracy: 0.9198 - val_auc: 0.9784
Epoch 14/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1669 - accuracy: 0.9309 - auc: 0.9829 - val_los
s: 0.1700 - val_accuracy: 0.9310 - val_auc: 0.9834
Epoch 15/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1647 - accuracy: 0.9318 - auc: 0.9833 - val_los
s: 0.1691 - val_accuracy: 0.9312 - val_auc: 0.9818
Epoch 16/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1609 - accuracy: 0.9336 - auc: 0.9841 - val_los
s: 0.1872 - val_accuracy: 0.9240 - val_auc: 0.9810
Epoch 17/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1597 - accuracy: 0.9345 - auc: 0.9843 - val_los
s: 0.1680 - val_accuracy: 0.9296 - val_auc: 0.9841
Epoch 18/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1567 - accuracy: 0.9356 - auc: 0.9849 - val_los
s: 0.1672 - val_accuracy: 0.9299 - val_auc: 0.9840
Epoch 19/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1547 - accuracy: 0.9365 - auc: 0.9852 - val_los
s: 0.1551 - val_accuracy: 0.9388 - val_auc: 0.9857
Epoch 20/100
2903/2903 - 9s - loss: 0.1534 - accuracy: 0.9369 - auc: 0.9855 - val_los
s: 0.1680 - val_accuracy: 0.9327 - val_auc: 0.9832
Epoch 21/100
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2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1518 - accuracy: 0.9375 - auc: 0.9858 - val_los
s: 0.1505 - val_accuracy: 0.9406 - val_auc: 0.9861
Epoch 22/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1494 - accuracy: 0.9386 - auc: 0.9862 - val_los
s: 0.1539 - val_accuracy: 0.9358 - val_auc: 0.9852
Epoch 23/100
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1478 - accuracy: 0.9393 - auc: 0.9865 - val_los
s: 0.1577 - val_accuracy: 0.9362 - val_auc: 0.9848
Epoch 24/100
Restoring model weights from the end of the best epoch.
2903/2903 - 7s - loss: 0.1457 - accuracy: 0.9396 - auc: 0.9870 - val_los
s: 0.1565 - val_accuracy: 0.9376 - val_auc: 0.9850
Epoch 00024: early stopping

Results
In [26]:  model.evaluate(X_test, y_test)

3110/3110 [==============================] - 4s 1ms/step - loss: 0.1503 -

accuracy: 0.9397 - auc: 0.9861

Out[26]: [0.15034817159175873, 0.9397003054618835, 0.9860697984695435]

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In [ ]:  # Step 1: Import necessary libraries

import pandas as pd
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
from sklearn.ensemble import AdaBoostClassifier
from xgboost import XGBClassifier
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score
​
# Step 2: Load and preprocess the dataset
# Assuming you have a dataset named 'kickstarter_data.csv'
df = pd.read_csv('Kickstarter001.csv')
​
​
# Drop unnecessary columns
df = df[['usd_pledged', 'state', 'usd_type', 'pledged', 'goal', 'country',
#df = df[['usd_pledged', 'state', 'pledged', 'goal', 'staff_pick', 'country
​
# Handle categorical variables
le = LabelEncoder()
df['usd_type'] = le.fit_transform(df['usd_type'])
df['country'] = le.fit_transform(df['country'])
df['state'] = le.fit_transform(df['state'])
df['staff_pick'] = le.fit_transform(df['staff_pick'])
​
# Define features and target variable
X = df.drop('state', axis=1)
y = df['state']
​
# Split the data into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, r
​
# Step 3: Train and evaluate the individual models
# AdaBoost Classifier
ada_model = AdaBoostClassifier(n_estimators=50, random_state=42)
ada_model.fit(X_train, y_train)
ada_pred = ada_model.predict(X_test)
​
# XGBoost Classifier
xgb_model = XGBClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
xgb_model.fit(X_train, y_train)
xgb_pred = xgb_model.predict(X_test)
​
# Step 4: Create the ensemble model
# You can use a simple voting approach for ensembling
from sklearn.ensemble import VotingClassifier
​
ensemble_model = VotingClassifier(estimators=[
('ada', ada_model),
('xgb', xgb_model)],
voting='hard')
​
ensemble_model.fit(X_train, y_train)
ensemble_pred = ensemble_model.predict(X_test)
​
# Step 5: Evaluate the models
ada_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, ada_pred)
xgb_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, xgb_pred)
ensemble_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, ensemble_pred)
​
print(f'AdaBoost Accuracy: {ada_accuracy}')
print(f'XGBoost Accuracy: {xgb_accuracy}')
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print(f'Ensemble Model Accuracy: {ensemble_accuracy}')
​

In [ ]:  from Py_FS.wrapper.nature_inspired import WOA

import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier
import pandas as pd
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
df = pd.read_csv('Kickstarter001.csv')
​
​
# Drop unnecessary columns
df = df[['usd_pledged', 'state', 'usd_type', 'pledged', 'goal', 'country',
​
# Handle categorical variables
le = LabelEncoder()
df['usd_type'] = le.fit_transform(df['usd_type'])
df['country'] = le.fit_transform(df['country'])
df['state'] = le.fit_transform(df['state'])
df['staff_pick'] = le.fit_transform(df['staff_pick'])
print(df)
​
# Define features and target variable
X = df.drop('state', axis=1)
y = df['state']
print(y.shape)
answer = WOA(num_agents=5, max_iter=20, train_data=X.to_numpy(), train_lab
print(answer.best_agent)

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In [ ]:  import pandas as pd
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from tensorflow.keras.layers import Conv1D
from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential
from tensorflow.keras.layers import Dense
​
# Load the dataset
df = pd.read_csv('Kickstarter001.csv')
​
​
# Drop unnecessary columns
df = df[['usd_pledged', 'state', 'usd_type', 'pledged', 'goal', 'country',
​
# Handle categorical variables
le = LabelEncoder()
df['usd_type'] = le.fit_transform(df['usd_type'])
df['country'] = le.fit_transform(df['country'])
df['state'] = le.fit_transform(df['state'])
df['staff_pick'] = le.fit_transform(df['staff_pick'])
print(df)
​
# Define features and target variable
X = df.drop('state', axis=1)
y = df['state']
# Split the data into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, r
​
# Build the fully connected model
model = Sequential([
Conv1D(filters=1024, kernel_size=5, input_dim=X_train.shape[1]),
Conv1D(filters=512, kernel_size=3),
Dense(1024, activation='relu', ),
Dense(512, activation='relu'),
Dense(128, activation='relu'),
Dense(64, activation='relu'),
Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')
])
​
# Compile the model
model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='binary_crossentropy', metrics=['accu
​
# Train the model
model.fit(X_train, y_train, epochs=100, batch_size=64, validation_data=(X_
​
# Evaluate the model
loss, accuracy = model.evaluate(X_test, y_test)
print(f'Accuracy: {accuracy*100:.2f}%')
​

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