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Lecture 9 Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events happen with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. It can be used to model phenomena like traffic accidents, machine failures, or customer arrivals. The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are both equal to the average rate of occurrences, μ. The probability of observing k occurrences is (μ^k * e^-μ) / k!. Cumulative probability tables can be used to find probabilities for specific values of μ and k.

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148 views

Lecture 9 Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events happen with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. It can be used to model phenomena like traffic accidents, machine failures, or customer arrivals. The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are both equal to the average rate of occurrences, μ. The probability of observing k occurrences is (μ^k * e^-μ) / k!. Cumulative probability tables can be used to find probabilities for specific values of μ and k.

Uploaded by

Shahadat Hossain
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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The Poisson Random Variable

• The Poisson random variable x represent


the number of occurrences of a specified
event in a given unit of time or space.

• Examples:
• The number of machine breakdowns in a
day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
The Poisson Probability Distribution
• x is the number of events that occur in a period
of time or space during which an average of μ
such events can be expected to occur. The
probability of k occurrences of this event is

For values of k = 0, 1, 2, … The mean


and standard deviation of the Poisson
random variable are
Mean: μ Variance: μ
Standard deviation:
Example
The average number of traffic accidents on
a certain section of highway is two per
week. Find the probability of exactly one
accident during a one-week period.
Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
Poisson distributions.

✔Find the column for the correct value of μ.


✔The row marked “k” gives the cumulative
probability, P(x ≤ k) = P(x = 0) +…+ P(x = k)
Example
What is the probability that there is exactly 1 accident?

P(x = 1) = P(x ≤ 1) – P(x ≤ 0) Check from


formula: P(x = 1)
= .406 - .135 = .2707
= .271
Example
k μ=2 What is the probability that 8 or
0 .135 more accidents happen?
1 .406
P(x ≥ 8) = 1 - P(x < 8)
2 .677
= 1 – P(x ≤ 7)
3 .857
= 1 - .999 = .001
4 .947
5 .983 This would be very unusual (small
6 .995 probability) since x = 8 lies
7 .999
8 1.000 standard deviations above the mean.

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