MODULE 1

Topics
1. Sample space and relationships among events
2. Counting rules useful in probability

Learning Outcome
 Discuss how probability and probability models are used in engineering and science.

 Understand and describe sample spaces and events for random experiments with
graphs, tables, lists, or tree diagram

 Interpret probabilities and use the probabilities outcomes to calculate probabilities of

events in discrete sample spaces

 Use permutations and combinations to count the number of outcomes in both an event
and the sample space.

 Calculate the probabilities of joint events such as unions and intersections from the
probabilities of individual events.
 Interpret and calculate conditional probabilities of events

 Determine the independence of events and use independence to calculate

probabilities.

 Use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities

 Describe random variables and the difference between continuous and discrete
random variables
Lesson 1. SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS FOR RANDOM EXPERIMENTS

Examples
1. An experiment designed to study the effect (efficiency) of two different gasoline
additives on the fuel efficiency.
2. Testing a new and improved farming equipment whether it is a defective
product or an acceptable product.
3. Rolling a die, and recording the even number that appears.
4. Tossing two coins simultaneously, and recording the heads that appear

There are four main ways to represent a sample space:

(https://openstax.org/books/statistics/pages/3-1-terminology)
Two Types of Sample Spaces

Examples:
1. Rolling a die
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} n(S) = 6 discrete sample space

2. Tossing two coins simultaneously

S = {HH, TT, HT, TH} n(S) = 4 discrete sample space

3. Consider an experiment that selects a cell phone camera and records the
recycle time of a flash (the time taken to ready the camera for another
flash). The possible values for this time depend on the resolution of the
timer and on the minimum and maximum recycle times. However, because
the time is positive, it is convenient to define the sample space as simply
the positive real line
S = R+ = {x | x > 0} n(S) = ∞ continuous sample space

If it is known that all recycle times are between 1.5 and 5 seconds, the
sample space can be
S = {x | 1.5 < x < 5} n(S) = ∞ continuous sample space

If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether the recycle time is
low, medium, or high, the sample space can be taken to be the set of three
outcomes
S = {low, medium, high} n(S) = 3 continuous sample space

If the objective is only to evaluate whether or not a particular camera

conforms to a minimum recycle-time specification, the sample space can be
simplified to a set of two outcomes
S = {yes, no} n(S) = 2 continuous sample space
that indicates whether or not the camera conforms.
 Note: By convention, an event is denoted with a capital letter E (or other capital
letters unless otherwise stated).
The number of events can be computed using the formula 2n, where n is the
total number of sample points.

Examples:
1. Random Experiment : Rolling a die
Sample Space : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Number of Outcomes/Sample Point : n(S) = 6
Sample Points : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Events :
E1 = the number rolled is even = {2, 4, 6}
E2 = the number rolled is odd = {1, 3, 5}
E3 = the number rolled is greater than two = (3, 4, 5, 6}

List of possible events :

{ }, {1}, {2}, {3}, {4}, {5}, {6}, {1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {1,5}, {1,6}, {2,1}, {2,2}, etc.

2. Random Experiment : Tossing two coins simultaneously

Sample Space : S = {HH, TT, HT, TH}
Number of Outcomes/Sample Point : n(S) = 4
Sample Points : HH, TT, HT, TH
Events :
E1 = getting exactly one head = {HT, TH}
E2 = getting at least one head = {HT, TH, HH}

List of possible events:

{ }, {HH}, {TT}, {HT}, {TH}, {HH,TT}, {HH, HT}, {HH, TH}, {TT, HH}, {TT, HT},
{TT, TH}, {HT, TH}, {HH, TT, HT}, {HH, HT, TH}, {TT, HT, TH}, {HH, TT, HT, TH}
Sample Problems
1. Given the situation, “JJ wants to see how many times a ‘double’ comes up when
throwing a pair of dice. Determine the a) experiment, b) sample space, c) sample
points, d) event, e} number of outcomes of the event and the f) total number of
outcomes of the sample space.

To visualize the result, we can list the possible outcomes using a tabular
presentation

a) Experiment – “Throwing a pair of dice”

b) Sample Space – S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3),…}
c) Sample Points – (1,1), (1,2), (1,3),…
d) Event – {(1,1)}, {(1,2)}, {(1,3)}, {(1,1),(1,2)},…
e) Number of outcomes of the sample space – n(S) = 36

2. A fair coin is flipped twice, and a sequence of heads (H) and tails (T) is observed.
List the sample space of the experiment using a tree diagram.

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

n(S) = 4
 3. An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a
head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed. List the elements
of the sample space using a tree diagram.

S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5}

n(S) = 8

4. Suppose that four (4) items are selected at random from a manufacturing process.
Each item is expected and classified defective D or non-defective N. Determine the
sample space using a tree diagram.

𝑆 = {DDDD,DDDN,DDND,DDNN,DNDD,DNDN,DNND,DNNN,
NDDD,NDDN,NDND,NDNN,NNDD,NNDN,NNND,NNNN}
n(S) = 16

Note: Because events are subsets, we can use basic set operations such as unions,
intersections, and complements to form other events of interest.
Lesson 2. UNION, INTERSECTION AND COMPLEMENT OF EVENTS
The union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in
either of the two events. We denote the union as E1 ∪ E2.
The intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained
in both of the two events. We denote the intersection as E1 ∩ E2.

The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in the sample space
that are not in the event. We denote the complement of the event E as E′. The notation E C
is also used in other literature to denote the complement.
Examples:
1. Random Experiment: Rolling a single die
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Events: E1 = the number rolled is even = {2, 4, 6}
E2 = the number rolled is greater than two = (3, 4, 5, 6}
E3 = the number rolled is odd = {1, 3, 5}
E1 ∪ E2 = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Union of Event 1 and Event 2
E1 ∩ E2 = {4, 6} Intersection of Event 1 and Event 2
E1 ∩ E3 = { } or Ø Event 1 and Event 3 are mutually exclusive
events
E1’ = {1, 3, 5} Complement of Event 1
E2’ = {1, 2} Complement of Event 2

Reference:
https://www.math.wsu.edu/students/odykhovychnyi/M201-04/Ch08_2_ Union_Intersection_and_
Complement_of_Event_Odds.pdf
Lesson 3. FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING

If activity A can be done in n 1 ways and after it has been done, activity B can be done in n 2
ways, then the total number of ways in which the two activities can be done is equal to
n1 * n2

Many Many Ways…

In general, if task T1 can be performed N1 ways, task T2 can be performed N2 ways, …, and
task Tn can be performed Nn ways, then the total number of ways of performing tasks
T1,T2,…,Tn in succession is given by

(N1· N2·…· Nn)

Examples:
1. Suppose you flip a coin. There are 2 possible outcomes: Head and Tail.
Suppose you flip it a second time. There are also 2 possible outcomes: Head and
Tail.
How many possible outcomes are there if you flip the coin twice?
4 possible outcomes = 2 possible outcomes (1st flip) * 2 possible outcomes (2nd flip)
HH, TT, HT, TH

2. Suppose you roll a 6-sided die twice. How many different outcomes are possible?
6 x 6 =36

3. How many possible outcomes are there if you rolled a 6-sided thrice?
6 x 6 x 6 = 216

4. Suppose you have a deck of 52 cards. You draw 5 cards. How many different
outcomes of 5 cards could you draw?
 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 = 311,875,200

5. How many different license plates are possible if each plate consists of 2 letters
followed by a 4-digit number? Assume repetitions in the letters or numbers are
allowed and any of the 10 digits may be used in each plate of the 4-digit number.

26 26 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 6,760,000

6. Surprisingly the Government ran out of license plates, so new plates have 4 letters
followed by 3 numbers. How many 7-digit plate combinations are there?

26 26 26 26 10 10 10 = 45,697,600

Factorials
We can define a mathematical operation called a factorial as being the multiple of all
natural numbers up to some natural number n

n! = (1)(2)(3)…(n –2)(n –1)(n)

Examples:
1. 3! = (1)(2)(3) = 6
2. 5! = (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) = 120
3. 12!= (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12) = 479,001,600
 Note: 0! = 1
Lesson 4. PERMUTATION
A Permutation
• is a specific ordering of the elements in a set.
• is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects in a definite order. Order is an
important aspect of permutation.

nPr = n!/(n-r)!

Examples
1. For the set A = {1,2,3}, the permutations are

For the set A = {1,2,3}

The permutations are
1 1,2 1,2,3
2 1,3 1,3,2
3 2,1 2,1,3
2,3 2,3,1
3,1 3,1,2
3,2 3,2,1

2. Four people are to be arranged in a row to have their picture taken. In how many
ways can this be done?

4 3 2 1 = 24
3. Supposed that the same five people park their cars on the same side of the street in
the same block every night. How many different arrangements of the cars parked
on the street are possible.

5 4 3 2 1 = 120

or nPr = 5P5 = 120

4. Fifteen cars enter a race. In how many different ways could trophies for the first, second
and third place be awarded?

15 14 13 = 2730

or nPr = 15P3 = 2730

5. Four books are to be chosen from a set of 10 books of distinct titles. How many ways can
be these books be chosen?

10 9 8 7 = 5040

or nPr = 10P4 = 5040

Theorems on Permutation

Theorem 1 – Arranging n Objects

In general, n distinct objects can be arranged in n! ways.

Example:
In how many ways can 4 different resistors be arranged in series?
4! = 4(3)(2)(1) = 24 ways

Theorem 2 – Number of Permutations

The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time, denoted by

nPr where repetitions are allowed.
nPr = n(n – 1)(n – 2) . . . (n – r + 1) = n!/(n-r)!

Notes:
n! n! n!
1. nPn = = = =n !
( n−n ) ! 0 ! 1
2. nPr or nPr

Examples:
1. In how many ways can a supermarket manager display 55 brands of cereals in
33 spaces on a shelf?
5! 120
5P3 = = =60
( 5−3 ) ! 2!
 2. How many different number-plates for cars can be made if each number-plate
contains four of the digits 0 to 9 followed by a letter A to Z, assuming that

(a) no repetition of digits is allowed?

10 ! 3628800
10 digits taken 4 at a time 10P4 = = =5040
( 10−4 ) ! 720
26 letters in the alphabet 26

(10P4)(26) = 5040 x 26 = 131040

(b) with repetition

10 digits with repetition (10)(10)(10)(10) = 10,000

26 letters in the alphabet 26

(10000)(26) = 260,000

Theorem 3 –Permutations of different kinds of objects

The number of different permutations of n objects of which n1 are of one kind, n2

are of a second kind, ... nk are of a k-th kind is

Example:

1. In how many ways can the five letters of the word “statistics” be arranged in a
row?

Since there are three “s”, three “t”s, two “i”s, one “a”s and one “c”s in the word
statistics. Then, the number of ways we can arrange the letter in the word
statistics is

10 ! 3628800 3628800
= = =50,400
3! 3 ! 2 ! 1 ! 1! 6 (6)(2)(1)(1) 72

Theorem 4 –Circular Permutation (Arranging objects in a circle)

 If n objects are arranged in a circle, the number of permutations is (n – 1)!

Example:
1. In how many ways can 6 people be arranged in a circle?
(n – 1)! = (6 – 1)! = 5! = 120

Lesson 5. COMBINATION

Combination is the arrangement of objects/things without reference to the order in

which they are arranged.
The number of possible combinations of r objects from a collection of n objects is:

n!
nCr = (n−r )! r !

Note:
1. nCn = 1
2. nC0 = 1

Examples:
1. Out of a group of 6 people, a pair need to be formed. The number of possible
combinations is:
6!
6C2= (6−2)! 2 ! =15

2. There are 4 men and 5 women in a small office. The customer wants a site visit
from a group of 2 man and 3 women. How many different groups can be formed
from the office?
 4!
( 5!
)
(4C2)(5C3)= ( ( 4−2) ! 2! ¿ ( 5−3 ) ! 3 ! = ( 6 ) ( 10 )=60

References:
https://www.intmath.com/counting-probability/3-permutations.php
https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/combinations.html
MSA Statistics and Probability, Alferez, Duro