Review Innovations CE Review for Nov 2023 – Algebra 6

PROBABILITY
For outcomes that are equally likely to occur
A A∪B B
Number of favorable outcomes
!=
Number of all possible outcomes
If the probability for an event to happen is ! and the This simplified rule can be extended to any number of
probability for it to fail is 4, then ! + 4 = 1. mutually exclusive events.

Conditional Probability Probability for Complementary Events

The probability that event B occurs given that event A The complementary of event A is the event not A. Event
has occurred is denoted by !(8 | :). This is called the not A is usually denoted as A’ or Ac.
conditional probability.
U
Ac
The Multiplication Rule (The AND Rule) A
The probability that two events A and B will occur in
sequence is

!(: and 8) = !(:) × !(8 | :)

!(:) = 1 − !(:! )
Baye’s Theorem
Binomial Probability Distribution
!(:) × !(8 | :) = !(8) × !(: | 8)
The central problem of a binomial experiment is to find the
probability of x successes in n Bernoulli trials.
If events A and B are independent, then the rule can be For Bernoulli Trials:
simplified to § There are n independent trials repeated under identical
conditions.
P( A and B) = P( A) ´ P(B) § The outcome of each trial can be classified as a success or
a failure.
This simplified rule can be extended for any number of § The probability of success p is constant from trial to trial.
independent events. § The probability of failure q = 1 – p.

In sets, the notation is !(B) = C " ∙ E#$" ∙ FCB

!(: ∩ 8) = !(:) × !(8)

Multinomial Probability Distribution
Each trial has more than two possible outcomes.

F!
A A∩B B ! = C% "! ∙ C& "" ∙ … ∙ C' "# ∙
B% ! ∙ B& ! ∙ … ∙ B( !

where ∩ = intersect Geometric Distribution

A trial is repeated until a success occurs. The probability
that the first success will occur on trial number n is…
The Addition Rule (The OR Rule) !(F) = E#$% ∙ C
The probability that events : or 8 will occur is given by

!(: or 8) = !(:) + !(8) − !(: and 8)

Negative Binomial Distribution
A trial is repeated until a fixed number of successes occurs.
In sets, the notation is
!(F) = C)$% ∙ E#$) ∙ (F − 1)C(J − 1) ∙ C
!(: ∪ 8) = !(:) + !(8) − !(: ∩ 8)

Hypergeometric Distribution
§ There are n trials that does not require independence.
A B § The trials are done in non-identical conditions.
The probability that x gets selected from k successes in a
random sample of size n from N items.

A∪B JCB ∙ (K − J)C(F − B)

!(B) =
where ∪ = union KCF

If events : and 8 are mutually exclusive, then the rule

can be simplified to

!(: ∪ 8) = !(:) + !(8)

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 Review Innovations CE Review for Nov 2023 – Algebra 6
Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution Examples
An extension of hypergeometric distribution. 1. In a poker hand consisting of five cards, what is the
probability that…
L% CB% ∙ L& CB& ∙ … ∙ L( CB( 1a. all 5 are diamonds? Answer: 33/66,640
!(B) =
KCF 1b. all 5 are of the same suit? Answer: 33/16,660
1c. 2 are clubs and 3 are hearts? Ans: 143/16,660

2. Given a class of 12 girls and 10 boys. What is the

Poisson Probability Distribution probability that a committee of five, chosen at random
Experiments yielding number of outcomes during a given
from the class, consists of:
time interval or in a specified region are often called Poisson
Experiments. The given time interval may be of any length, 2a. only girls Answer: 0.03

such as minute, a day, a week, a month, or even a year 2b. At least one girl Answer: 0.99

3. If six cards are selected at random from a standard deck,

Conditions to Apply Poisson Probability Distribution what is the probability that there will be no pairs?
The following three conditions must be satisfied to apply Answer: 0.3452
Poisson probability distribution:
§ x is a discrete random variable 4. Throw two dice. What is the probability that the two
§ The occurrences are random scores are different? Answer: 5/6
§ The occurrences are independent 5. Urn 1 contains 5 white balls and 7 black balls. Urn 2
contains 3 whites and 12 blacks. A fair coin is flipped. If
The probability of x occurrences in an interval is it shows heads, a ball from urn 1 is drawn; if it is tails, a
µx e-µ ball from urn 2 is drawn. Suppose a white ball was
P( x ) = selected. What is the probability that this ball was taken
x!
from Urn 2? Answer: 12/37

where µ is the mean number of occurrences in that interval. 6. A pack consists of 20 pieces of candy. In a thousand packs,
40 contains less than 20 pieces. When selecting 3 packs,
what is the probability of selecting a pack with less than
Normal Probability Distribution 20 candies. Answer: 11.06%
The normal probability distribution is the most important
7. A manufacturer estimates that 1.5% of his output of a
and widely used of all probability distributions. When
plotted, it gives a bell-shaped curve such that small item is defective. Find the probabilities that in a
§ the total area under the curve is 1.0, pack of 200 items:
§ the curve is symmetric about the mean, and 7a. none is defective Answer: 0.0487
§ the two tails of the curve extend indefinitely. 7b. two are defective Answer: 0.225
7c. three or more are defective Answer: 0.5785
f(x)
8. The probability that any given person will believe a tale
about life & death is 0.8. What is the probability that the
6th person to hear it is the 4th one to believe it? Ans: 0.1638
9. Assume the probability that you will make a sale on any
x given telephone call is 0.19. Find the probability that you
a µ b 9a. make your first sale on the fifth call. Answer: 0.0818
9b. make your first sale on the 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd call.
P(x ≤ a) = P(x < a) = Area to the left of a Ans: 0.4686
P(x ≥ a) = P(x > a) = Area to the right of a 9c. do not make a sale on the first three calls. Ans: 0.5314
P(a ≤ x ≤ b) = P(a < x < b) = Area between a and b
10. A washing machine in a laundry shop in Sampaloc breaks
Standard Normal Distribution down an average of three times per month. Using the
Poisson probability distribution formula, find the
probability that during the next month this machine will
have…
10a. exactly two breakdowns Answer: 0.224
10b. at most one breakdown Answer: 0.1991

x 11. The life span of a calculator manufactured by Lenovo

µ
Corporation has a normal distribution with a mean of 54
months and a standard deviation of 8 months. The
company guarantees that any calculator that starts
σ=1 malfunctioning within 36 months of the purchase will be
replaced by a new one. About what percentage of such
Q(z1) Q(z2) calculators made by this company are expected to be
P(z1) replaced? Answer: 1.22%
R(z2)
z
z1 µ=0 z2 12. The lengths of steel girders produced in factory are
normally distributed with a mean length of 12.5 m and a
standard deviation of 2 cm. Girders need to be between
12.47 and 12.53 meters to be used in construction. Find
the proportion of girders which cannot be used in
construction. Answer: 13.4%

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 Review Innovations CE Review for Nov 2023 – Algebra 6
For Practice 14b. If a new oil filter is needed, what is the probability
1. A face of a coin is either head or tail. If three coins are that the oil has to be changed? Answer: 0.35
tossed, what is the probability of getting three tails? 15. A box contains 5 defective and 195 non-defective cell
Answer: 1/8
phones. A quality control engineer selects 2 cell phones
2. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at at random without replacement. What is the probability
least one head occurs? Answer: 3/4 that exactly 1 is defective? Answer: 0.0490

3. Suppose you toss a coin and then roll a die. What is the 16. A box of electronic items contains 16 which pass
probability of obtaining a tail and then rolling a 1? international product standards and 4 which do not. If
Answer: 1/12 three items are selected at random from the box, what is
4. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is the probability that all three pass international product
twice as likely to occur as an odd number. Find the standards? Answer: 0.4912
probability that if this die is rolled, a number less than 4 17. A random sample of 15 persons is taken from a
occurs. Answer: 4/9 population in which 42% are Muslims. What is the
5. The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a probability that exactly 6 persons in the sample are
particular illness is 0.7. Given that the doctor makes an Muslims? Answer: 0.2041
incorrect diagnosis, the probability that the patient 18. A pump has a failure, on the average, once in every 5,000
enters a lawsuit is 0.9. What is the probability that the hours of operations. What is the probability that no
doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, and the patient failure will occur in 10,000 hours of operation? Ans: 0.135
sues? Answer: 0.27
19. Four cards are drawn at random from a deck of 52 cards.
6. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a What is the probability that all four are face cards?
second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One Answer: 99/54,145
ball is drawn at random from the second bag and is
20. The probabilities that three men hit a target are 1/6, 1/4,
placed unseen in the first bag. What is the probability
and 1/3, respectively. Each shoot once at the target. If
that a ball now drawn from the first bag is black?
Ans: 29/64
only one of them hits the target, find the probability that
it was the first man. Answer: 6/31
7. The probability that a family owns a washing machine is
0.78 and the probability that it owns a VCR is 0.71. The 21. Studies have shown that 72.5% of apprehended
probability that it owns both a washing machine and a snatchers in Metro Manila are drug users. In a random
VCR is 0.58. What is the probability that a randomly sample of 16 apprehended snatchers, what is the
selected family owns a washing machine or a VCR? probability that exactly 10 of them are drug users?
Answer: 0.139
Ans: 0.910

8. The probability that both stages of a two-stage missile 22. Aedan tries to eat at least five pieces of fruit each day.
will function correctly is 0.95. The probability that the The probability that he does is 0.6, independent of any
first stage will function correctly is 0.98. What is the other day. What is the probability that Aedan eats at
probability that the second stage will function correctly least five pieces of fruit on more than half the days in a
given that the first one does? Answer: 0.969
given week? Answer: 71%

9. A certain statistical observation found that it has a 23. Sarah is deciding which courses she wants to take in her
probability of failing once equal to 0.422, twice equal to next college semester. The probability that she will enroll
0.141 and thrice equal to 0.016. Determine the probability in an algebra course is 0.30 and the probability that she
that it will fall once or thrice. Answer: 0.438
will enroll in a biology course is 0.70. The probability that
she will enroll in an Algebra course given that she enrolls
10. From a box containing 5 white balls, 7 blue balls, and 10 in a biology course is 0.40.
black balls, one ball is drawn at random. Determine the 23a. What is the probability that she will enroll in both
probability that it is blue or white? Answer: 6/11 algebra and biology courses? Answer: 0.28
11. A store has three kinds of toys given in every purchase. 23b. What is the probability that she will enroll in an
What is the probability of getting all three toys in five algebra course or a biology course? Answer: 0.72
purchases? Answer: 0.6173 24. A pair of fair dice is rolled. Find the probability that the
12. In a population of 100,000 females, 89.835% can expect to sum of the two numbers facing up is less than 10.
live to age 60, while 57.062% can expect to live to age 80. Answer: 5/6
Given that a woman is 60, what is the probability that she 25. A store sells three types of flash drives: brand A, brand
lives to age 80? Answer: 63.52% B, and brand C. Of the flash drives it sells, 60% are brand
13. A bin contains 25 light bulbs, 5 of which are in good A, 25% are brand B, and 15% are brand C. The store has
condition and will function for at least 30 days of use, 10 found that 20% of the brand A flash drives, 15% of the
of which are partially defective and will fail on the brand B flash drives, and 5% of the brand C flash drives
second day of use and 10 of which are totally defective are returned as defective. If a flash drive is returned as
and will not light up. Given that a randomly selected defective, what is the probability that it is a brand A flash
bulb initially lights up, what is the probability that it will drive? Answer: 0.73

still be working after one week? Ans: 1/3 26. In a room of 23 people, what is the probability that at
14. The probability that an automobile being filled with least 2 people have the same birthday? Assume
gasoline will also need an oil change is 0.25; the birthdays are uniformly distributed across the year and
probability that it needs a new oil filter is 0.40; and the there is no leap year complication. Answer: 0.50

probability that both the oil and filter need changing is 27. In a family of five children, what is the chance that there
0.14. are three boys and two girls? Answer: 5/16
14a. If the oil had to be changed, what is the
probability that a new oil filter is needed? Ans: 0.56
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