NISTEP REPORT No.

183

The 11th Science and Technology Foresight:

S&T Foresight 2019
Summary Report

November 2019

Science and Technology Foresight Center

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy
【Contributors】
AKAIKE Shinichi Principal Senior Fellow
YOKOO Yoshiko Director, Science and Technology Foresight Center
ITO Yuko Deputy Director, Science and Technology Foresight Center
URASHIMA Kuniko Deputy Director, Science and Technology Foresight Center
OMOE Hiromi Deputy Director, Science and Technology Foresight Center
GAMO Hidenori Visiting Researcher, Science and Technology Foresight
Center
KAWAOKA Masayuki Visiting Researcher, Science and Technology Foresight
Center
KUROGI Yutaro Research Fellow, Science and Technology Foresight Center
SHIRAKAWA Nobuyuki Senior Research Fellow, Science and Technology Foresight
Center
HAYASHI Kazuhiro Senior Research Fellow, Science and Technology Foresight
Center
KOSHIBA Hitoshi Senior Research Fellow, Second Policy-oriented Research
Group (Science and Technology Foresight Centre until
March 2019)
KURIBAYASHI Miki Senior Research Fellow, Science and Technology Foresight
Center (Until March 2019)
NAKASHIMA Jun Visiting Researcher, Science and Technology Foresight
Center (Until March 2018)
YANO Sachiko Visiting Researcher, Science and Technology Foresight
Center (Until May 2018)

Please specify reference as the following example when citing this NISTEP REPORT.

“The 11th Science and Technology Foresight: S&T Foresight 2019 - Summary report -,”
NISTEP REPORT, No.183, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15108/nr183
1. Background

In Japan, science and technology innovation policy has been promoted under the
Science and Technology Basic Plans, which have been formulated every five years since
1996. In recent years, the rapid development of technology such as ICT (information
and communication technology) has brought about significant changes in the structure
of society, human behavior, and so on. This has increased the uncertainty about the
future of society as well as changes in international/national social, economic, and
political situations. Facing this kind of changes, policy framework is required to have
flexibly to uncertainty about the future, by understanding science and technology
developments and the various possibilities they can bring about in society, as well as
the demands of society from a medium- to long-term perspectives.

This study aims to provide fundamental information to enable evidence-based

discussion about science, technology, and innovation policies including the 6th Science,
Technology, and Innovation Basic Plan.

Figure 1. Progress of science and technology policy and NISTEP Foresight

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2. Framework of the study

The Science and Technology Foresight has been carried out approximately every five
years since 1971 in Japan, and this is the 11th study. Since around the year 2000, back
casting or seeking for solution to challenges has become the mainstream attitude
toward science and technology policymaking. To meet the requirements from
policymakers, there was a change in the study framework from technology or seeds
driven approach, where they consider the future of society based on science and
technology developments, to society or needs driven approach, where they discuss the
desired society before identifying relevant scientific and technological issues.

In consideration of the increased complexity of the relationship between technology

and society, the study is promoted from the dual viewpoints of science and technology,
and society (Figure 2). First, we grasped the science, technology, and social trends
through a survey of reference materials, etc. [horizon scanning]. Next, we conducted
separate investigations into the “future of society [visioning],” and “future of science
and technology [science and technology perspectives]. Finally, we integrated the
results to create the “future images of society brought about by the development of
science and technology [scenario].” The study of “future of science and technology”
consists of two approaches: discussion by field and interdisciplinary discussion. The
period for looking into the future was set to the approximate 30-year point of 2050,
with the target year set to 2040, in about 20 years’ time. This duration assumes the
progress of the ultra-smart society “Society 5.0” initiative.

The characteristics of this study are the positive use of information technology for data
collection and analysis, as well as the encouragement for participation of the various
stakeholders in the investigation process.

[Horizon scanning]

[Visioning] [S&T
perspectives]

[Scenario]

Figure 2. Structure of the 11th S&T Foresight

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[The 11th S&T Foresight: S&T Foresight 2019 series]
Summary:
Summary Report, NISTEP Report No.183, November 2019, NISTEP
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15108/nr183

Horizon Scanning:
Horizon Scanning Report, Discussion Paper No.183, June 2020, NISTEP
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15108/dp183

Visioning:
Discussion on Desirable Society 2040, Research Material No.276, September
2018, NISTEP
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15108/rm276

S&T Perspectives:
Close-up Science and Technology Areas for the Future in 2050 -Extraction and
Analysis through a Combination of AI-related Technologies and Expert Judges-,
Research Material No.290, June 2020, NISTEP
DOI: http://doi.org/10.15108/rm290

Delphi Survey, Research Material No.292, June 2020, NISTEP

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15108/rm292

Scenario:
Society in 2040 through the Development of S&T -Conceptual Scenario-,
Research Material No. 291, June 2020, NISTEP
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15108/rm291

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3. Results
3.1. Horizon scanning
We extracted related trends from existing sources etc. as background information for
depicting the desired future of society in “future of society” part [visioning], and for
setting science and technology topics (S&T topics) in “future of science and technology”
part [S&T perspectives].

The information to be collected was future outlook and signs of changes; the former
was extracted mainly from existing materials including press releases and policy
information including government strategies and top-down-type funding information;
the latter was based on opinions of experts and bottom-up-type funding information.
Results from the separately conducted investigations into the future images of the
world and domestic regions were also used as information for “future outlook” or
“signs of changes.”

Table 1. Information collected in Horizon Scanning

Type Awareness Direction How to get information

Society Outlook Prediction ✓ Extracted trends from existing materials
Aim ✓ Desired future of domestic regions (regional
workshop results)
✓ Extracted intended direction from plans and
strategies by the government
Signs Prediction ✓ Possible changes in society (International
workshop results)
✓ Collected opinions of specialists and experts
✓ Collected information through routine horizon
scanning by NSITEP
Science Outlook Prediction ✓ Extracted trends from existing material
and  Extracted information from related reports
technology Aim ✓ Crawled information from meeting minutes of the
national diet, etc.
✓ Crawled information of themes and resource
distribution of top-down competitive research funds
Signs Prediction ✓ Collected opinions of specialists and experts
✓ Collected information through routine horizon
scanning by NISTEP
✓ Extracted themes from Grant-in-Aid for Scientific
Research Database KAKEN
✓Crawled themes of R&D-related press releases

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3.2. Visioning
A workshop was held in January 2018 with approximately 100 participants consisting of
various stakeholders, including experts in the humanities, social sciences, and natural
sciences, younger and senior researchers, experts from industry, academia, and
government. Discussion took place regarding the desirable future images of Japanese
society.

As a result, fifty future images of Japanese society were proposed as images of society
aimed for by 2040, from which four values of humanity, inclusion, sustainability, and
curiosity were extracted (Figure 3). Under “humanity”, a society was depicted where
we put value on human being and a wide variety of connections between people, as
we coexist with artificial intelligence and machines such as robots. Under “inclusion”, a
society was depicted in which we promote connections that enables respects for a
diverse range of characteristics of humans and machines. Under “sustainability”, a
society was depicted in which we can respond to a wide variety of issues, such as
energy limitations, food supply and demand, and the environmental issues on a global
scale. Under “curiosity”, a society was depicted in which the spirit of adventure and
curiosity can be fully manifested.

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6

Figure 3. Future images of Japanese society

3.3. Science and technology perspectives
Delphi survey

For the seven fields of science and technology, 702 S&T topics were set for
investigation by subcommittees in each field (comprised of a total of 74 experts). The
S&T topics are research and development issues that are expected to be realized by
2050 and considered vital for the future. A questionnaire to experts was conducted
from February to June 2019, and replies were received from 5,352 people. The
questions to the S&T topics are their importance, their international competitiveness
of Japan, their expected year of realization, and policy measures for their realization.
The main results are as follows. Typical S&T topics are shown in Table 2 to Table 5.

 S&T topics with relatively high priority were often shown in the fields of health/
medicine/life sciences, ICT/analytics/service science, material/devices/processes,
cities/architecture/civil engineering/transportation, and space/ocean/ earth/ science
foundation.

 S&T topics with relatively high international competitiveness were often shown in
the fields of material/devices/processes, cities/architecture/civil engineering/
transportation, and space/ocean/earth/science foundation. Health/medicine/life
sciences field and ICT/analytics/service science field have more S&T topics with
relatively low international competitiveness.

 It is predicted that approx. 90% of the S&T topics will be applied to society by 2035.
Topics in the fields of health/medicine/life sciences, material/devices/processes,
and cities/architecture/civil engineering/transportation are considered to be generally
late in terms of scientific and technological realization and social realization.

 In terms of both the scientific and technological realization and social realization,
there is a high necessity for establishing legal regulations among policy measures
in the ICT/analytics/service science field, and after that in the cities/architecture/
civil engineering/transportation field. The need for consideration of ethical, legal,
and social issues (ELSI) is high in health/medicine/life sciences field and ICT/
analytics/service science field.

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Table 2. S&T topics with highest level of importance by field

Field S&T topic (Number represents ID) Score* Realization**

Health, 39: Methods for prevention and treatment of motor
1.56 2028/2030
medicine, function deterioration associated with aging
life sciences 58: Disease modification therapy effective for
prevention and treatment of neurodegenerative
1.55 2032/2035
diseases such as Alzheimer's disease based on
pre-symptomatic biomarkers
Agriculture, 115: Agricultural robots to replace humans 1.35 2026/2029
forestry, 146: System for real-time high spatial and high
fisheries, temporal resolution meteorological prediction and
1.33 2028/2030
food, disaster risk assessment, utilizing satellite and/or
biotechnology meteorological observation data
Environment, 227: Long-life and low-cost secondary batteries
1.48 2029/2032
resources, that do not require replacement for electric cars
energy 261: Integrated water management technology in
densely populated areas, including management of
1.36 2028/2029
urban flooding, storm surge and land subsidence
due to linear rain bands and torrential rain
ICT, analytics, 389: Technology such as AI, IoT, and robots that
service dramatically improves agricultural productivity, and 1.57 2029/2031
science eliminates labor shortages and lack of personnel
350: Technology to prevent unauthorized access
into control systems such as important
1.56 2028/2029
infrastructure, vehicle control and personal IoT
devices/ services
Materials, 474: High-capacity, high-power battery with an
devices, energy density of 1 kWh/kg or more and a power 1.50 2030/2032
processes density of 1 kW/kg or more
497: Wearable devices that monitor in vivo
1.32 2028/2031
information
Cities, 541: Non-destructive inspection technology which
architecture, may be used in the field to improve the reliability of
1.53 2025/2026
civil inspection and diagnosis of infrastructure and to
engineering, reduce the burden associated with this work
transportation 546: Technology for creating highly accurate
disaster hazard maps to enable detailed city 1.51 2027/2028
planning
Space, ocean, 629: Evaluation of the urgency of identifying the
earth, science next volcano likely to erupt or unlikely to erupt, 1.51 2031/2033
foundation from all active volcanoes in Japan
644: Technology for predicting localized heavy rain,
tornadoes, hail, lightning, snowfall, etc., several
hours ahead with spatial resolution of 100 m or less, 1.50 2027/2029
using high-resolution simulation and data
assimilation
*Importance scores were calculated based on the following point distribution: Very high (+2), High (+1), Neither high nor low (0),
Low (-1), and Very low (-2).
** [Year of scientific/technological realization] / [Year of social realization] : Scientific/technological realization refers to the
establishment of a technological environment. Social realization refers to a situation in which the realized technology can be used
as products, services, etc.

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Table 3. S&T topics with highest level of international competitiveness by field

Field S&T topic (Number represents ID) Score* Realization**

Health, 63: Evaluation methods for the efficacy and side
medicine, effects to develop the drugs of infectious diseases
life sciences by using the cells established form the stem cells 0.81 2028/2029
such as iPS cells, that can be substituted to animal
models.
5: Efficacy and safety evaluation technology using
artificial organs and organoids derived from
0.75 2028/2030
pluripotent stem cells that can reproduce the
functions in the living body
Agriculture, 146: System for real-time high spatial and high
forestry, temporal resolution meteorological prediction and
0.80 2028/2030
fisheries, disaster risk assessment, utilizing satellite and/or
food, meteorological observation data
biotechnology 121: Various functional foods based on the concept
0.80 2027/2029
of foodmics that is conscious of the aging society
Environment, 213: Car engines with 50% energy efficiency 1.09 2029/2031
resources, 227: Long-life and low-cost secondary batteries
0.98 2029/2032
energy that do not require replacement for electric cars
ICT, analytics, 344: Optical communication technology capable of
service accommodating innovatively large capacity and
0.82 2027/2028
science high-density communication, such as multi-core
fiber and silicon photonics
335: Robot equipment that supports the cognitive
and motor function of elderly and mildly disabled
people, enabling independent living, and driverless 0.78 2028/2030
technology for robot equipment and robots that
move at low speed over short distances
Materials, 475: Aiming for a hydrogen society, a fuel cell
devices, where the amount of precious metal used is one
0.94 2032/2033
processes tenth or less of that used in 2018, with
consideration of catalyst deterioration
412: High efficient power semiconductors for
electrical power and motive power further exceeding 0.92 2029/2033
silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN)
Cities, 587: Response control to long-term, long-duration
architecture, ground motion of high-rise buildings and seismic 1.16 2026/2028
civil base isolation buildings
engineering, 581: Technology that satisfies environmental
transportation standards for noise during continuous running at
1.10 2027/2029
Shinkansen speed of 360 km, by using active noise
control
Space, ocean, 697: An optical lattice clock network using optical
earth, science fibers, facilitating time measurement with an
foundation accuracy of 18 digits anywhere on Earth, enabling 1.11 2030/2033
measurement of crustal and groundwater
fluctuations and movement of magma chambers
659: Elucidation of the origin of asymmetry of
1.07 2033/-
matter and antimatter in space
＊Competitiveness scores were calculated based on the following point distribution: Very high (+2), High (+1), Neither high nor low
(0), Low (-1), and Very low (-2).
* [Years of scientific/technological realization] / [social realization] : Scientific/technological realization refers to the establishment
of a technological environment. Social realization refers to a situation in which the realized technology can be used as products,
services, etc.

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Table 4. S&T topics for which the establishment of legal regulations is most needed

Field S&T topic (Number represents ID) S&T Society

ICT, analytics, 302: Internet-based individual authentication
service science technology to a level that would enable all elections 81% 90%
to be implemented on the Internet
ICT, analytics, 300: Technology to digitize all economic
77% 81%
service science transactions
ICT, analytics, 374:30% or more of the total amount of payments
service science made by ordinary people in daily life will be
conducted in virtual currency managed by block 71% 78%
chain technology without being controlled by
central banks
ICT, analytics, 380: A social consensus will be reached on the
service science relationship between machinery (AI, robot) and 68% 71%
human beings
ICT, analytics, 382: Autonomous decentralization without central
service science institutions in the distribution of intellectual
66% 73%
property, through utilization of distributed ledger
technology and smart contracts
ICT, analytics, 355: Economic infrastructure providing security,
service science efficiency and a sense of security, with the ability to
facilitate almost 100% cashless transactions for 65% 77%
individuals' social activities and corporate economic
activities
Cities, 570: "Flying cars and drones" able to carry people
architecture, in urban areas
civil 64% 80%
engineering,
transportation
Health, 73: The management system for medical history,
Medicine, medication history, and personal genome information
Life Sciences based on insurance cards, etc., incorporating IC 64% 74%
chips, which will contribute to achieving precision
medicine and improved medical quality.
ICT, analytics, 387: A system for automatic creation/modification
64% 77%
service science of laws and ordinances using AI technology etc.
ICT, analytics, 396: Various means of transportation, such as
service science automatic travel, drones, etc., to facilitate
maintenance of local public transportation
63% 75%
networks, and reform the field of logistics, as well
as technology to support management and
operation of these networks
*Analysis extracted ten topics with the highest rates of selection of "establishment of legal regulations" as policy measures for
scientific/technological realization (selections in the "S&T" column). Analysis additionally showed the rate of selection of the same
policy measures for social realization (selections in the "society" column).

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Table 5. S&T topics most necessitating ELSI considerations

Field S&T topic (Number represents ID) S&T Society

Health, 84: Solutions to Ethical, Legal and Social
medicine, Implications (ELSI) regarding utilization of genome 70% 73%
life sciences information from the neonatal period
ICT, analytics, 380: A social consensus will be reached on the
service science relationship between machinery (AI, robot) and 62% 69%
human beings
Health, 13: Human organ for transplantation produced
medicine, from human-animal chimeric embryo consisting of 61% 69%
life sciences animal embryo and human stem cell-derived cells
Health, 73: The management system for medical history,
medicine, medication history, and personal genome
life sciences information based on insurance cards, etc.,
60% 67%
incorporating IC chips, which will contribute to
achieving precision medicine and improved medical
quality.
Health, 16: Highly safe intrauterine gene therapy for
medicine, congenital genetic diseases 58% 71%
life sciences
ICT, analytics, 388: Health maintenance system based on data
service science linkage of information such as health, medical care,
nursing care, etc., from birth to the present, using 56% 67%
block chain technology (achieving a
pre-symptomatic society)
Health, 74: Health and medical database that continuously
medicine, collects genome information, medical records and
life sciences biological and behavior information obtained 56% 64%
through wearable sensors and smart devices,
toward promotion of large-scale cohort studies.
Health, 15: Gene therapy methods that widely realize gene
medicine, repair therapy and single genetic disease treatment 55% 72%
life sciences with next-generation genome editing technology
Agriculture, 160: Medical model pigs capable of
forestry, xenotransplantation using gene modification
54% 69%
fisheries, food, techniques
biotechnology
ICT, analytics, 376: With the spread of AI and the ability to
service science automate the majority of work, it will become a
50% 52%
society where about 30% of the working generation
will not work
ICT, analytics, 381: A system that makes it possible to estimate
service science the social and economic impact of legal regulation,
provides appropriate advice and risk presentation,
including ascertaining situations where individuals 50% 50%
and groups are located in real-time (including policy
advice systems, advanced medical care advice
systems, etc.)
*Analysis extracted eleven topics with the highest rates of selection of "solutions for ethical, legal, and social issues" as policy
measures for scientific/technological realization (selection in the "S&T" column). Analysis additionally showed the rate of selection
of the same policy measures for social realization (selection in the "society" column).

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An overview of each field is shown below.

< Health/medicine/life sciences field >

 Importance: High for S&T topics related to aging, neuroscience, and medical devices.
 Competitiveness: High for S&T topics related to regenerative/cell medicine, gene therapy,
and treatment based on the immune system.
 Prospect of realization: Slow for S&T topics related to neuroscience, especially the
elucidation of the neuronal basis of higher cognitive functions in humans.
 Policy measures: High requirement for addressing ELSI in the subfield of information for
health and social medicine.

< Agriculture/forestry/fisheries/food/biotechnology field >

 Importance: High for S&T topics related to agricultural robots that replace humans,
followed by the system construction such as resource prediction and management
technology, and the fusion of food and information technology.
 Competitiveness: High for S&T topics related to weather forecasts, disaster risk
assessments, and functional foods based on “foodmics.”
 Prospect of realization: Slow for the scientific/technological realization of the resource-
ecosystem-related technologies. Social realization of next-generation biotechnology is slow.
 Policy measures: High requirement for the improvement of legal regulations in the subfield
of safety, security and health.

< Environment/resources/energy field >

 Importance: High for S&T related to secondary batteries, natural disasters, radiation
removal, global warming, and risk management.
 Competitiveness: High for S&T topics related to automobiles, natural disasters, water
treatment, and waste collection /effective utilization.
 Prospect of realization: Quick for the scientific/technological realization of S&T topics
related to energy systems, water, and risk management.
 Realization of S&T topics related to energy conversion and resource development is slow.
Water-related S&T topics are socially realized quickly, and energy-conversion- related S&T
topics are slow.
 Policy measures: High requirement for human resource development in S&T topics related
to risk management. Resource development and risk management will need domestic
collaboration. S&T topics related to global warming and water will be promoted by
international collaboration and standardization.

< ICT/analytics/service science field >

 Importance: High for S&T topics in the subfields of “social implementation”, “security and
privacy”, “IoT and robotics”, and “network infrastructure”.
 Competitiveness: High for S&T topics in the subfields of “network infrastructure”, “IoT and
robotics”, “computer systems”, and “interaction”.
 Prospect of realization: Slow for the scientific/technological realization of S&T topics in the
subfields of “policy and institutional design support”. Slow again for the social realization of
S&T topics in the subfields of “computer systems”, “industry, business, and management
applications”, “policy and institutional design support”, “social implementation”, and
“interaction”.
 Policy measures: High requirement for human resource development for S&T topics in the
subfield of “data science and AI”. High requirement for S&T topics in the subfield of “policy

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 and institutional design support” to address ELSI.

< Materials/devices/processes field >

 Importance: High for S&T topics related to secondary batteries, solar cells, fuel cells,
wearable devices, biomaterials, and structure diagnosis.
 Competitiveness: High for S&T topics related to fuel cells, power semiconductors, and
secondary batteries.
 Prospect of realization: Slow for the scientific/technological realization of S&T topics in the
subfields of “applied devices and systems relating to ICT and nanoelectronics” and “applied
devices and systems relating to environment and energy”. Fast for social realization of S&T
topics in the subfield of “process manufacturing”; slow for social realization of S&T topics in
the subfield of “applied device systems relating to ICT and nanoelectronics”.
 Policy measures: High requirement to develop human resources for S&T topics in the
subfield of “computational science and data science”. High requirement for R&D
funding/project subsidies, research platform improvement/business environment
improvement for S&T topics in the subfield of “applied devices and systems relating to
environment and energy”. High requirement to improve legal regulations and to address
ELSI for S&T topics in the field of “applied devices and systems relating to life science and
biotechnology”.

< Cities/architecture/civil engineering/transportation field >

 Importance: High for S&T topics in the subfields of “social infrastructure facilities,” “cities
and environment,” “information for disaster prevention and mitigation,” followed by
“transportation systems”.
 Competitiveness: High for S&T topics in the subfields of “information for disaster
prevention and mitigation” and “cars, rail, marine and aviation”.
 Prospect of realization: S&T topics related to disaster, information on danger, and mobility
are the fastest to be realized in the subfields of “information for disaster prevention and
mitigation”, “transportation systems”, and “land use and preservation”.
 Policy measures: High requirement for international cooperation and standardization for
S&T topics in the subfields of “transportation systems” and “cars, rail, marine, and aviation.”
High requirement for domestic cooperation and collaboration on S&T topics related to
infrastructure maintenance.

< Space/ocean/earth/science foundation field >

 Importance: High for S&T topics related to measurement and analysis using quantum
beams, disaster prediction, and positioning for automation.
 Competitiveness: High in importance and international competitiveness for S&T topics
related to phenomenon elucidation, prediction of local heavy rainfall, and material
structure analysis using multiple beams.
 Prospect of realization: The realization of S&T topics related to quantum beam is fast, and
the realization for S&T topics related to the space, elementary particles, nuclei, and
accelerators is slow.
 Policy measures: Space-related and the ocean-related S&T topics generally have a high
requirement for policy support. Overall, in addition to human resources, R&D funding, and
research platform, there is a high requirement for international collaboration and
standardization.

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Close-up science and technology areas for the future

In recent years, cross-disciplinary areas have come under attention, from the
perspectives of both social issues’ solution and scientific and technological
developments. Based on the 702 S&T topics set by the subcommittees for each field,
research and development areas that need to be promoted were extracted regardless
of the field. The characteristics of this approach were that it was conducted with
processing using AI-related technology (artificial intelligence centering on machine
learning and natural language processing) combined with expert judgement. The 702
S&T topics were classified into 32 clusters, based on AI-related technology before there
was a discussion by experts. Then, eight areas with high interdisciplinary potential
(Figure 4) and eight areas focusing on specific fields (Figure 5) were extracted.

*Areas were formed based on S&T topics, and as it was not shown that these were definitely I
interdisciplinary areas, these were set to areas with “high potential” as interdisciplinary areas.

ID Name Summary
1 Science and A science and technology area that understands and controls
technology towards more diversified and complicated social phenomena (Large
social and economic Social Complex Systems) by modeling and simulating them by
growth and change making full use of information processing technology and
mathematical science.

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ID Name Summary
2 Next-generation A science and technology area consisting of biomonitoring
biomonitoring and that comprehensively understands various interactions in the
bioengineering for human body, aiming at precision medicine that considers
precision medicine individual differences in genes, environment, and lifestyle,
and also bioengineering that develops medical technology
based on the results.
3 Atomic and molecular A science and technology area that integrates advanced
level analysis measurement that enables the observation and survey of
technology using previously unseen objects, and information science, such as
advanced measurement simulation, informatics, and AI, to lead to scientific
technology and clarification and the development of technologies in a wide
information science range of practical fields, including drug discovery, catalysts,
tools materials, and crops.
4 Creation of novel A science and technology area consisting of elemental
materials and technologies that form the basis of manufacturing that is
manufacturing expected to bring about new value creation through
systems advanced manufacturing and distribution systems enabling
mass customization and meeting the diverse needs of
individuals and global society in the future, such as solving
social issues related to the earth and the environment and
improving humanities’ QoL.
5 Advanced electronic A science and technology area consisting of the
and quantum devices human-machine interface and sensing in the IoT, which are
that revolutionize ICT the basis of deepening and fusion of human-machine
relationships. Electronic devices with new materials and
functions such as high-efficiency and high-speed devices that
support advanced ICT systems with less environmental
impact. Furthermore, science and technology fields related to
quantum devices that have enormous information processing
capabilities and are expected to be able to non-invasively
measure and sense living organisms with high accuracy.
6 Monitoring, evaluation By observing the Earth extensively from space and on the
and prediction ground, it is possible to deepen our understanding of the
technology of global Earth’s environment and resources, and improve our ability
environment and to predict changes that will lead to the exploration and
resources by space management of energy and resources, and crisis
utilization management against natural disasters.
7 Science and A science and technology area related to diverse technologies
technology for and systems such as renewable energy, waste reduction and
promoting circular recycling, and sharing to promote the “Circular Economy”, a
economy new economic model achieving economic growth by
recovering, regenerating, and reusing consumed resources
continuously.
8 Advanced observation A science and technology area for avoiding disaster damage
and prediction so that no one is left behind, involving basic research to
technology related to investigate the causes of natural disasters such as
natural disasters earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and heavy rains that have
occurred frequently in Japan in recent years, including
technology for predicting the occurrence of these disasters,
and science and technology related to national land
conservation and design.
Figure 4. Eight areas with high potential of multidisciplinary
and interdisciplinary fields

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ID Name Summary
A Advanced systems for A science and technology area that collects, shares, analyzes,
distributing and using and utilizes a wide variety of large amounts of data such as
data industrial, medical, and educational data, personal
information, and research data, while maintaining the
balance between protection and use.
B Robotic technology A science and technology area that supports and expands
that blends into areas including various social and industrial activities such as
human society to manufacturing/services, medical/nursing care, agriculture,
support and expand forestry and fisheries, construction, disaster response, in
various human addition to individual abilities (e.g., memory and exercise) by
activities integrating and utilizing autonomous robots, information
terminals, and networks into human society.
C Next-generation A science and technology area consisting of advanced
communications and encrypted technologies that support security in data usage in
cryptography a wide range of fields, such as next-generation
communication technology for wireless/wired and mobile
devices that can use high-speed, large-capacity data that will
be indispensable as an infrastructure for life and industry in
general in the future society where data usage will increase.
D Technology for A science and technology area related to unmanned driving,
preventing human maneuvering, and the operation of moving objects such as
errors in vehicles, aircraft, and ships based an intelligent
transportation transportation system by ICT to reduce the burden on
humans and to expand the traffic capacity safely and
efficiently in land, air, and sea traffic.

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ID Name Summary
E Disease prevention A science and technology area related to research on genetic,
and treatment environmental, and social factors related to diseases,
methods for research on the mechanism of aging/functional decline,
life-course healthcare development of prevention/diagnosis/treatment methods for
age-related diseases, based on the concept of a life course
approach that continuously captures the human
developmental and experiential periods (fetal, infant,
school-going, working, and old age) and provides appropriate
prevention and treatment of diseases at each age stage, for
lifelong health support (life course/healthcare) aimed at
extending healthy life expectancy.
F Sustainable A science and technology area for the development of
agriculture, forestry agriculture, forestry and fisheries based on a data-driven
and fishery systems approach and the relationship with local communities and
that harmonize with resources through the sustainable and effective use of
ecosystems ecosystem services as a benefit that ecosystems provide to
humankind.
G Energy-related A science and technology area related to energy elemental
technology for a technologies that are indispensable for the conversion from
sustainable society fossil fuels that emit CO2 to renewable energy as future
energy technologies that will be the basis of daily life and
industry to build a sustainable society.
H Fundamental sciences A science and technology area in astrophysics, which has
for revealing the developed rapidly in the 21st century, and aims to elucidate
origins of the space the basic science of various phenomena and existence
and human beings related to the universe, which is still a mystery.
Figure 5. Eight areas focusing on specific fields

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3.4 Scenario
Based on the fifty images of future Japanese society obtained through the investigation
into the “future of society” and 702 S&T topics set through the investigation into
“future of science and technology,” we created the conceptual scenario as “the future
images of society brought about by the development of science and technology”
(Figure 6). The conceptual scenario consists of a description of the future society,
relevant S&T topics, and societal issues to be discussed. Two axes (tangible/intangible,
individual/society) are set, and the fifty images of future Japanese society are allocated
to one of the four quadrants and embodied. The tangible/intangible axis assumes that
virtual world will have more significant presence in our lives as the initiatives such as
the “Society 5.0”, the ultra-smart society are promoted. The individual/society axis is
set based on the changes in the individuals (mainly focusing on two values of humanity
and curiosity) and those in society (mainly focusing on two values of inclusion and
sustainability).

The intangible - individual quadrant depicts a society in which people share values in
communities they form beyond geographical connections, with geographical dispersion
of resident areas and workplaces. The intangible - society quadrant depicts a
cooperative society in which digitized information is shared, with connections for
support work between humans and robots. The tangible - individual quadrant depicts a
society in which new “individuality “extends mental and physical capabilities through
the support of science and technology, leading to a society with higher quality of life. In
the tangible - society quadrant, a society is depicted in which optimization with
resource recycling achieves a balance with customization or human needs. Scenarios of
each quadrant are as follows.

“Society of coexistence, rethinking what it means to be human and recognizing

diversity”
This refers to a society where mutual understanding is promoted by sharing feelings
and experiences through various means of communication, and where people live
together while respecting each other’s differences. Relevant scientific and
technological issues include technology to support community formation, technology
for normalization in daily life, and communication support technology.
 Society in which all people can live like human beings
 Society with diversities
 Society of coexistence

“Flexible society in which the real and the virtual are harmonized”
This refers to a society where data and knowledge are accumulated, shared, and
utilized, and value is created by freely using virtual and real spaces to solve various
problems and flexibly respond to rapid changes. Relevant scientific and technological
issues include next-generation technologies of telepresence, security, automated
driving, AI technology, and interface.
 Multi-dimensional society

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  Data-shared society
 Healthy human/healthy earth

“Society that enhances individuality through fusing the maintenance/recovery of

human functions with digital assistance”
This refers to a society where human mental and physical functions are expanded by
science and technology, and each person acquires a new “individuality” by expanding
their range of activities and their capacities through health management and
maintenance according to individual characteristics. Relevant scientific and
technological issues include technologies of pathological monitoring, the digitization of
jobs, and technology to enhance skills and physical functions.
 Society with expanded physical functions
 Society with stable mind and body
 Everyone becomes a master

“Society in which personal customization and general optimization coexist, allowing

individuals to have unique lifestyles”
This refers to a sustainable society where a new equilibrium point is found for partial
and total optimization, and resources are appropriately allocated and circulated though
individuals make their preferred choices without stress and act unintentionally. The
relevant scientific and technological issues include technologies of next-generation
energy, next-generation infrastructure, global monitoring and sensing, digital
manufacturing, and recycling of resources.
 Prepared Society
 Optimized society
 Customized society

470 S&T topics were regarded as identified through linking the collation of the future
images of society and S&T topics. Most of the topics in the health/ medicine/life
sciences field, agriculture and fisheries/food/biotechnology field, and environment/
resources/energy field were expected to contribute to the realization of the desired
society in 2040.

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Figure 6. Future image of desired society brought about by the development of science and technology (Conceptual scenario)

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4. Summary

The study aims to provide foundational information to contribute to formulation of

science, technology, and innovation policies/strategies including the 6th Science,
Technology, and Innovation Basic Plan. With social conditions as a given, we
investigated the possibility of new science and technology, and depicted the future
image of desired society based on science and technology development. In the
investigation into the “future of society”, fifty future images of desired society and four
values were extracted. In the investigation into the “future of science and technology,”
opinions were received from 5,352 experts regarding the priority and outlook for
achievement of the 702 S&T topics. Additionally, discussion on the automatic clustering
of the 702 S&T topics took place, and eight areas with a high interdisciplinary potential
and eight areas focusing on specific areas were extracted. In the final investigation into
the future images of society brought about by the development of science and
technology, the future of society and the future of science and technology were
integrated to create the conceptual scenario.

In the study, we investigated desired future society based on science and technology
development. It is expected that further discussions will take place, assuming other
condition setting and changes. At the Science and Technology Center, we plan to set
themes and perform a detailed investigation.

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Figure 7. Overview of the study

 NISTEP REPORT No.183
The 11 th Science and Technology Foresight: S&T Foresight 2019
– Summary report –
November 2019
Science and Technology Foresight Center
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan
https://doi.org/10.15108/nr183
https://www.nistep.go.jp