UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, JAMAICA

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

MODULE: INTRODUCTION TO LOGIC (ECO1015)
ACADEMIC YEAR: 2022-2023

TUTORIAL SHEET # 2 – Unit 2

NERVA SMITH (2003103)

1) Identify whether the following is true or false:

a) If an argument is cogent, then it has true premises- TRUE

b) If an argument is cogent then it is strong- TRUE

c) If an argument is valid, then it is strong-FALSE

d) If an argument is uncogent, then it is weak- TRUE

e) If an argument is weak, then it is not likely that if the premises are true, then its
conclusion is true- TRUE

2) Identifying and Evaluating Statistical Syllogisms: Which of the following arguments

have the form of a statistical syllogism? Which do not? Some of the arguments contain
information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence. Explain why.

a) Some of the marbles in container 3 are green. The next marble to be drawn is a
marble from container 3. Hence, the next marble to be drawn is green.

ANS. Form of fallacy of incomplete evidence it is not proven that all marbles on container 3 are
green.

b) More than half of all voters in the state of Washington favor campaign reform.
Gordon Johnark, a U.S. senator, is a voter in the state of Washington.
Accordingly, Gordon Johnark favors campaign reform.

ANS. Statistical syllogism. No fallacy.

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 c) Jack is 65 years old. So, Jack is not currently making a living as a professional
boxer.

ANS. Does not have statistical syllogism. No fallacy. incomplete evidence

d) In 30 percent of all married couples in Jamaica, the woman earns more than the
man. So, I’ll bet that means Susan makes more money than her husband Tom.

ANS. Not Statistical syllogism. No fallacy.

e) One hundred percent of Jamaicans love chicken. Jean is a Jamaican. Therefore,

Jean love chicken.

ANS. Does not have statistical syllogism. No fallacy. Deductive argument

f) Most college students do not work full-time. Jane is a college student. Therefore,
Jane does not work full time.

ANS. Statistical syllogism. No fallacy.

3) Which of the following arguments are examples of the types of inductive argument?
Which are not? (a) If an argument is not an example of any of the types of arguments
introduced in this section, simply write “incorrect form.” (b) If an argument is an
example of a type of argument introduced in this section, identify the type. (c) Specify
the sampling error wherever possible. (d) Identify any fallacies of incomplete evidence,
and briefly indicate why a fallacy has been committed.

a) One hundred percent of the dogs that have been dissected have had kidneys.
Hence, 100 percent of the members of the class of dogs have kidneys.

Ans. deductive argument

b) According to a recent poll, 50 percent of a random sample of 1500 voters in Ohio

favor Quigley for governor. Thus, roughly 50 percent of voters in Ohio favor
Quigley for governor.

ANS. statistical syllogism

c) The Bantam Medical Dictionary says that an ectopic pregnancy is “the

development of a fetus at a site other than the womb” (e.g., the fallopian tube).

Ans. argument of authority

d) So, an ectopic pregnancy is the development of a fetus at a site outside the womb.

ANS. Appeal to an unreialiable authority

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 e) The noted astrologer Vashti Zinia states that the stars determine the course of
human history. So, our fate is in the hands of the stars.

Ans. Inductive statistical syllogism.

f) Sixty-seven percent of those in a randomly chosen sample of 4000 Americans are

overweight. Therefore, about 67 percent of Americans are overweight.

ANS. Induction by Enumeration.

4) Mill’s Methods: Which of Mill’s methods is illustrated in each of the following

examples? If, in your opinion, the conclusion reached indicates that an inadequate
hypothesis was employed, formulate a better hypothesis.

a) By his third shot of whiskey, Robert noticed that he was feeling intoxicated. He
drank another shot of whiskey and found that the feeling increased. Curious, he
drank yet another shot, and his head really began to spin. Robert concluded that
the whiskey was making him drunk. Ans. Method of argreement. Robert realize the
the amount of whiskey increase so does the intoxication.

b) Alonzo has done well on his last three math exams. In each case, he studied very
intensely for 3 hours the night before the exam. Also, in each case, he departed
from his usual informal style of dress and wore a tie to the exam. Alonzo
concluded that wearing a tie increases the quality of his performance on
examinations. ANS. Incorrect form / fallacy

c) A certain physics professor got into his car to drive home from work. As he
backed out of the parking place, he noticed a large oil spot. The next day he
parked in a different parking place, one that had no oil spot. But as he backed out
of the parking place at the end of the day, he once again noticed a large oil spot.
He concluded that an oil leak from his car had caused the oil spots. ANS.
METHOD OF DIFFERENCE. Change in parking place and observation of
change in oil

d) A doctor had 10 patients suffering from a rare form of cancer. By investigating

the life histories of his patients, he found that each of them had worked for several
years at a nuclear power plant and each had been exposed to significantly high
amounts of radiation on at least one occasion. The doctor concluded that the
radiation was the cause of cancer in each of the 10 cases. ANS. METHOD OF
AGREEMENT. The doctor observes that all 10 patients with cancer have worked
at a nuclear power plant and been exposed to high radiation

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 e) Betty, a department store manager, seeks an explanation for a register that often
shows a shortage of cash at the end of the day. Betty suspects that one of the
employees, Frank, is dipping from the till. But she also suspects that another
employee, Jon, is making frequent mistakes in counting change. Betty confronts
Frank about the matter; he admits to stealing and is fired. The frequency and
amounts of the shortfall decrease sharply but are still nontrivial. Betty concludes
that the persisting problem is likely caused by Jon’s mistakes in counting change.
ANS. Joint method of agreement and change. Betty suspects two potential causes
(Frank stealing and Jon making mistakes). She addresses one cause (Frank
stealing) and observes a decrease in the problem, implicating the other cause
(Jon's mistakes)

5) Hypotheses: In the following arguments, identify any hypotheses that fail to meet the
four criteria for good scientific hypotheses. State which criterion is violated and explain
your answer.

a) Frederick has been having trouble with his watch. It keeps losing time. He had the
battery replaced, but that didn’t help. So, Frederick hypothesized that an invisible
demon had possessed his watch, slowing down the mechanism. He took the watch
to a priest for an exorcism, but that didn’t help either. Frederick concluded that
the demon must be the type of demon that cannot be exorcised.

ANS. Violates Testability criterion.

b) A certain biology professor noted a correlation between increased activity among

bees and the beginning of spring. He hypothesized that as bees flap their wings,
their body heat increases, which warms the air around them, thus bringing about
the changes in seasons from winter to spring.

ANS. Violates clarity criterion.

6) Analyzing and Evaluating Analogies: Analyze the following arguments in terms of the
schema for arguments from analogy, identifying A and B (the things being compared)
and property P. Below each argument is a suggested criticism or reply. Does the reply
point to an important weakness in the analogy? Why or why not? Wherever possible,
briefly state at least one additional criticism that calls the strength of the argument into
question.

a) Mars is similar to the earth in that both are planets that orbit the sun. The earth is
inhabited by living things. Therefore, Mars is inhabited by living things.

Reply: The moon also orbits the sun, but we know that the moon is not inhabited
by living things.

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ANS. A. Earth B. Mars, P. inhabited by living things. Reply is an important weakness in analogy

b) Logic, like whiskey, loses its beneficial effects when taken in very large
quantities. Therefore, very large quantities of logic should be avoided. —Lord
Dunsany, My Ireland, as quoted in H. L. Mencken (ed.), A New Dictionary of
Quotations (New York: Knopf, 1978), p. 705 ( Note: This quotation is slightly
altered—we’ve made the conclusion explicit, and the original has “too” where
we’ve used “very.”)

Reply: Whereas whiskey has alcohol in it, logic does not.

A. Logic B. Whiskey P. losing beneficial effects in very large quantities.