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Markov Chain Excel1 Student New

The document shows the transition probabilities of customers choosing between three restaurants (RallyBurger, BurgerBarn, Caesars) over time. It reaches a steady state probability distribution where the probabilities of choosing each restaurant remain constant, around 0.511 for RallyBurger, 0.311 for BurgerBarn, and 0.178 for Caesars. This demonstrates that the system has converged to a steady state that is independent of the initial choice.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views6 pages

Markov Chain Excel1 Student New

The document shows the transition probabilities of customers choosing between three restaurants (RallyBurger, BurgerBarn, Caesars) over time. It reaches a steady state probability distribution where the probabilities of choosing each restaurant remain constant, around 0.511 for RallyBurger, 0.311 for BurgerBarn, and 0.178 for Caesars. This demonstrates that the system has converged to a steady state that is independent of the initial choice.

Uploaded by

chunheicheng2001
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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RallyBurger BurgerBarn Caesars 0.511111 0.311111 0.

177778
RallyBurg 0.7 0.2 0.1
BurgerBar 0.35 0.5 0.15
Caesars 0.25 0.3 0.45

Day RallyBurger BurgerBarn Caesars


1 0 1 0
2 0.35 0.5 0.15 press ctrl+shift+enter
3 0.4575 0.365 0.1775
4 0.492375 0.32725 0.180375
5 0.50429375 0.3162125 0.179494
6 0.5085534375 0.312813125 0.178633
7 0.510130359375 0.31170728125 0.178162
8 0.5107293898438 0.3113284203125 0.177942
9 0.5109610674609 0.3111927450781 0.177846
10 0.5110517548652 0.3111424422695 0.177806
11 0.5110875339163 0.3111233129674 0.177789
12 0.5111017215591 0.3111159092018 0.177782
13 0.5111073656218 0.3111130096845 0.17778
14 0.5111096154982 0.3111118653747 0.177779
15 0.5111105135117 0.3111114115251 0.177778
16 0.5111108722328 0.3111112309539 0.177778
17 0.5111110156001 0.3111111589675 0.177778
18 0.5111110729168 0.3111111302335 0.177778
19 0.5111110958359 0.311111118755 0.177778
20 0.5111111050017 0.3111111141674 0.177778
21 0.5111111086675 0.3111111123333 0.177778
22 0.5111111101337 0.3111111115999 0.177778
23 0.5111111107202 0.3111111113066 0.177778
24 0.5111111109547 0.3111111111893 0.177778
25 0.5111111110486 0.3111111111424 0.177778
26 0.5111111110861 0.3111111111236 0.177778
27 0.5111111111011 0.3111111111161 0.177778
28 0.5111111111071 0.3111111111131 0.177778 the system has reached a steady stat
29 0.5111111111095 0.3111111111119 0.177778 we like this
30 0.5111111111105 0.3111111111114 0.177778 facilitate the prediction of the fut
31 0.5111111111109 0.3111111111112 0.177778 prob remain the same every day
32 0.511111111111 0.3111111111112 0.177778 john will follow the same prob every
33 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778 or call the system converges
34 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778 in the long run(repead suff -num of
35 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778 even if another customer, the first
36 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778 no matter which customer, asusming f
37 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778 market size, demand, sales, rev, pro
38 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
39 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
40 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
41 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
42 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
43 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
44 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
45 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
46 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
47 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
48 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
49 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
50 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
51 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
52 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
53 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
54 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
55 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
56 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
57 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
58 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
59 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
60 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
61 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
62 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
63 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
64 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
65 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
66 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
67 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
68 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
69 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
70 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
71 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
72 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
73 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
74 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
75 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
76 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
77 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
78 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
79 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
80 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
81 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
82 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
83 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
84 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
85 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
86 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
87 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
88 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
89 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
90 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
91 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
92 0.5111111111111 0.3111111111111 0.177778
properities
1. has a steady state, converges, but not all markov has a steady state
2. steady state is independent from the intial states (no matter what their
eached a steady state

rediction of the future


same every day
the same prob every day of choosing the restaurant
em converges
repead suff -num of periods, prob remain the same and don’t change anymore
customer, the first few days the prob will change but it will converges and is the same as john's, steady state,
customer, asusming follow 1 step matrix, system evolve many days, all customer follow the same prob in visintg t
and, sales, rev, profit…
v has a steady state
tes (no matter what their first choice is, converge the same , steady state), not all has this, some might depen

as john's, steady state,


he same prob in visintg the restuaratn, prob for indiv rest choice becomes % of customers who will visit each wh
as this, some might depend on initial state!!

rs who will visit each which is actually the market share


Austin San Antonio Houston
Austin 0.6 0.15 0.25
San Antonio 0.2 0.75 0.05
Houston 0.15 0.05 0.8

Day Austin San Antonio Houston


1 0 0 1
2 0.15 0.05 0.8
3 0.22 0.1 0.68
4 0.254 0.142 0.604
5 0.2714 0.1748 0.5538
6 0.28087 0.1995 0.51963
7 0.286367 0.217737 0.495897
8 0.289752 0.23105255 0.479196
9 0.291941 0.240711963 0.467347
10 0.293409 0.247692466 0.458899
11 0.294419 0.252725628 0.452856
12 0.295125 0.256349808 0.448526
13 0.295624 0.258957334 0.445419
14 0.295978 0.260832494 0.443189
15 0.296232 0.262180594 0.441587
16 0.296413 0.26314961 0.440437
17 0.296544 0.263846068 0.43961
avg of day 2-17

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