TEM

MECHANICAL MODEL

RANDOM
GENERATOR

Young Engineer’s Handbook

§1
Introduction

Probability of an Event or Randomness

Coin tossing is one of the oldest, simplest, and most widespread ways of
making a random choice.

A coin has only two sides: heads (often depicting the head of a prominent
person) and tails (the reverse side), so the probability of getting one of them is
the same, or equal. Tossing a coin therefore allows for a fair, random selection of
winner and loser.

For example, a referee tosses a coin before a football match starts to

determine which team will bring the ball into play.

«Drawing lots» is a means of selecting among several people or contestants.

Each contestant puts a paper or other such item with their name on it
into a bowl or other container. An item or «lot» is then randomly chosen to
determine a winner, establish sequential order among the group, or set the
pairings of contestants in a sports tournament.

Various items may be used to draw lots for giveaways like raffles, lotteries,
or other such events: cards or sheets of paper, sticks of different lengths or with
different markings, dice, balls with numbers, etc.

To understand the draw, or your odds of winning, you first need to know how
to calculate the probability of an event. For that, let’s become acquainted with
the basic concept of probability theory.

2
 §2 The History behind Probability Theory

§2
The History
Probability theory is actually a relatively modern branch of mathematics, building
on the work of Arab mathematicians between the 8th and 13th centuries.
The development of probability theory largely parallels efforts to understand
gambling. It was later used in demographic research, insurance studies, and other
applied sciences.
These days, the principles of probability theory can be applied in one manner or
another to nearly every area of human activity.
One of the first works of probability theory was Jacob Bernoulli’s book, “The Art
behind of Conjecturing” (1713). The Swiss mathematician proposed a classic definition of
Probability the probability of a random event.
Theory

*
Previously, mathematicians frequently did the hard work of crunching numbers to calculate
probabilistic outcomes. Historians believe that the helpful substitution of «frequency» for
“quantity” (that is, dividing any given outcome by the total number of outcomes) was stimulated by
statistical considerations. Specifically, frequency, as opposed to quantity, tends to stabilize as the
number of observations increases.

3
 §2 The History behind Probability Theory

The definition of probability, as set forth by Bernoulli,

immediately gained general acceptance. It was reproduced by
Abraham de Moivre in his book, «The Doctrine of Chances»
(1718) and by all subsequent mathematicians. The most
important clarification was that all «elementary outcomes»
must be equally probable. This proposition was made by
French mathematician Pierre-Simon de Laplace in 1812. If it is
impossible to calculate classical probability (for example, due to
inability to identify equally probable outcomes), then Bernoulli
suggested using a statistical approach. That is, estimating the
probability based on the results from observations of this or
related events.
In the first part of his treatise, Bernoulli completely reprinted
Huygens’ «Treatise on Probability Theory,» to which he gave
Jacob Bernoulli the highest praise, and substantially supplemented it with his
own comments. Bernoulli expounded combinatorics in detail,
and used it to solve several problems of random selection. In
the last part of the book, which remains unfinished, Bernoulli
JACOBI BERNOULI intended to consider economic and other practical applications
Profeff. Bafil.utriufque Societ. Reg. Scientiar.
Gall. & Pruff. Sodal. of probability theory.
Mathematici Celeberrimi,
The practical applications of probability theory expanded
ARS CONJECTANDI, significantly at the beginning of the 19th century. The concept
OPUS POSTHUMUM. of probability was also defined for continuous random variables,
Accedit making it possible to apply methods of mathematical analysis
T R A C T A T U S to situations where there is an infinite continuum of possible
outcomes.
DE SERIEBUS INFINITIS,
Et Epistola Gallice feripta
Carl Friedrich Gauss, the famed German mathematician and
physicist, made a significant contribution to the development of
DE LUDO PILAE
RETICULARIS probability theory. He was constantly engaged in astronomical
calculations and developed a probabilistic method for dealing
B A S I L E A E, with measurements containing observational errors (1809).
Impenfis THURNISIORUM, Fratrum
Gauss outlined his final version of the theory in his work,
«Theory of the Combination of Observations Least Subject to
Bernoulli’s work
Error” (1823, 1828). His contribution to the development of
probability theory can be seen in «Gauss’s Law,» relating to
electric fields.
f(z)
u

0,39

-3σ -2σ -1σ 1σ 2σ 3σ z

68,26%

95.44%

99.72%

Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss

The probability density graph of the normal distribution
and percentage of random variable hits on segments equal
to the standard deviation.

4
 Unique AR-experience and real life usage

Scan QR to download App A Ugears STEM-lab mechanical model is an interactive guide

1 to how a mechanism works.

Assemble the RANDOM GENERATOR, learn its key principles

and how it works.

Use Ugears AR application that will take you on a trip to

augmented reality. Point the camera of your mobile phone or
tablet at the assembled model and discover how the mecha-
nism is used in real life. Interact with the model by changing
the viewpoint and angle to see how the Random Generator
ends up with different results (gets random answers to your
questions).
2 Open the application

3 Point and align the image

on the screen with the model

4 Interact in AR
Enjoy our unlimited support!
Should you have any questions about assembly, we are
always here for you to suggest the best solution and
provide the help you might need. Our 24/7 customer
support service will accept and process your request
promptly and professionally.

Customer support:
[email protected]

5
§3 Finding
the probability
of an event
and random
number
generation
To understand probability theory and how to use it in practice, consider the
concept of the probability of an event.
If the event is impossible, its probability is 0.
If the event is inevitable (a certain event), its probability is 1.
If the event is not certain and is not impossible, its probability is between 0 and 1.

When we say that an event is unlikely (for example, winning a large amount in
the lottery), it means its probability of occurrence is close to zero. In such a case,
you would likely need to make many attempts for the event to occur.

On the contrary, when the probability of an event is high (for example, the
probability that an egg will have one yolk rather than two), its probability is close
to one. In most cases, the event will occur—when you crack the egg you will find
only one yolk inside; only in very rare instances will it have two.

The probability of all events can be characterized by a number ranging from 0 to 1.

For example, the probability of getting heads on a coin toss is 0.5. Thus, the
probability of getting tails is also 0.5 since there are no other possible outcomes.

Let’s take a closer look at a die (plural: dice) and find the probability of getting
one particular face of the six faces on the cube. By definition, the probability of
this event is 1/6 or 0.167.

6
 §3 Finding the probability of an event and random number generation

So how do you find the number that denotes the probability of an event?

Consider the examples above—the coin and the die. They are both perfectly symmetrical
bodies (so equally probable elementary outcomes).

We know for certain that a tossed coin will fall (thus, the probability of this event is
1), and that it will fall on one of two sides (it does not matter which one). Since two
events—heads or tails—are equally probable, we divide 1 by 2 and we get a probability
of 0.5 for the event.

Similarly, we know that a rolled die will land on one of its faces. The probability
of getting any of the six faces (corresponding to numbers from 1 to 6) is equal to 1.
Since all events or outcomes are equally probable (the cube is symmetrical), we
divide 1 by 6 and get a probability of 1/6 or 0.167.

This value means that the probability of getting any particular number, e.g.,
the face marked with the number 3, is 0.167. But what is the practical use of
this number (calculated probability of an event)?

It is impossible to predict with certainty the outcome of an uncertain event;

when casting a die, we can never know in advance which face we will get. If
we choose a random event, e.g., getting the face marked with the number 3,
we can say the following:

● When casting 100 times we will get the face marked with number 3, on average,
17 times
● When casting 1000 times we will get the face marked with number 3, on
average, 167 times, and so on...

All we have to do is multiply the probability of the event by the number of attempts. The
more attempts we make, the closer the observed frequency (the number of occurrences
of the face marked with number 3) will be to the theoretical probability.

Probability theory also makes it possible to predict the likelihood

of various outcomes where there are several consecutive events
or several events that occur simultaneously, if the probability of
each is known in advance.

Thus, coins, dice, and other mechanical devices make

it possible to conduct a fair drawing of lots—to choose one
person or team from many options.

7
 §3 Finding the probability of an event and random number generation

p(k)
n=1 p(k)
n=4
0.18 1/6 0.18
0.16 0.16
0.14 0.14
0.12 0.12 73 / 648
0.10 0.10
0.08 0.08
0.05 0.05
0.04 0.04
0.02 0.02
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 45 6 k 4 14 24 k

p(k)
n=2 p(k)
n=5
0.18 1/6 0.18
0.16 0.16
0.14 0.14
0.12 0.12
0.10 0.10 65 / 648
0.08 0.08
0.05 0.05
0.04 0.04
0.02 0.02
0.00 0.00
2 7 12 k 5 17,18 30 k

p(k)
n=3
0.18
0.16
0.14 1/8
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.00
3 10,11 18 k

Other mechanical devices can be used for random number generation. Special chips are included in modern
computers for this purpose. These chips generate pseudo-random numbers within any range (from 1 to 100, or 1
to a million) and perform these operations very quickly (literally in milliseconds). Pseudo-random numbers are not
truly random, as they are determined by a computer algorithm, but their distribution is statistically indistinguishable
from numbers that are truly random.

8
 §4 The UGEARS Random Generator and its practical uses

§4
The UGEARS
The UGEARS Random Generator is a mechanical model that can be used to
generate, at random, answers to simple questions. The device features an octahedron
with six vertices, each of which has a disc with one of the following inscriptions:
YES, NO, LATER, TRY AGAIN, DO IT NOW, BETTER NOT TELL YOU. It can be used as
an amusing fortune-telling or advice-giving device, similar to the popular «Magic
8-Ball» children’s toy.

Random Because the discs on the vertices are of the same size and weight and are located
symmetrically with respect to center mass, any given inscription is equally likely to
Generator occur.
and its practical Remember that in order to estimate the number of occurrences of an event
during a certain number of attempts, you have to multiply the probability of the
uses event by the number of attempts made.
For example, during a series of 60 attempts with the UGEARS Random Generator,
the YES sign will appear 10 times on average. If you were to run 600 attempts, the YES
sign would appear 100 times on average, and so on. Moreover, the more attempts
we carry out, the less discrepancy there will be between the observed frequency
and the theoretical probability.

Let’s return to the concept of the probability of an event and find the probability
that we will get any one of the six vertices of the octahedron. We know that under
the influence of gravity, one of the vertices will certainly appear, so the probability
of this event is 1.
Since the octahedron is symmetrical and has the ability to rotate freely around
its center of gravity, the probability that we get any one of the vertices is the same.
Thus, to find the probability of getting any particular vertex among the six vertices,
we need to divide 1 by 6. As a result, we get a probability of 1/6 or 0.167.

9
§5
Mechanical
In order to determine how the device works, we must turn to geometry.

Let’s look at two regular polyhedra: a cube and an octahedron.

A cube is a regular polyhedron, all of whose faces are squares. It consists of 6

faces forming 8 vertices.
An octahedron is a regular polyhedron, all of whose faces are equilateral triangles.
UGEARS It consists of 8 faces forming 6 vertices. (see Fig. 4)
Random
Generator

Cube Octahedron

Fig. 4

A cube and an octahedron are dual to each other. If you mark the midpoints of
the square faces of the cube, then these points will be the vertices of the inscribed
octahedron. Conversely, if you mark the midpoints of the triangular faces of the
octahedron, then these points will be the vertices of the inscribed cube (see Fig. 5)

Fig. 5

Imagine an octahedron that is empty. Let’s construct this octahedron of a lightweight

material (for example, wood), and place inside it a small, heavy iron ball. The weight of
the ball is much greater than the weight of the octahedron, while the size of the ball is
much smaller than the size of the inner cavity of the octahedron.

10
 §5 Mechanical UGEARS Random Generator

Now let’s take a look at the design of the UGEARS Random Generator. Inside, there is an octahedron with a weighting
agent (iron ball). The ball is smaller than the octahedron, which allows it to roll freely inside when the octahedron
turns. When the octahedron is set in motion, the ball bounces around inside until it eventually settles into one of
the octahedron’s six hollow vertices (formed by the walls of adjacent faces).

At this point the ball has achieved a stable position in space and within the octahedron, causing the octahedron
to come to rest under the influence of gravity, with the ball-laden vertex pointed downwards.

A gimbal (a pivoted support that permits rotation of an object about an axis) gives the octahedron the ability to
rotate freely after a strong push (produced with the help of a special lever).

The strong impetus sets the octahedron spinning, allowing the metal ball to move freely inside. As friction
overcomes inertia, slowing the spin of the device, the ball settles into one of the vertices (random selection), and
the vertex assumes a downward orientation, as described above. The opposing vertex, with its inscribed disc, now
appears at the top of the device, giving the randomly-generated answer to the question!

Let’s take a deeper look at the mechanical principles underlying the gimbal. As you may already know, a free body
in space has 6 degrees of freedom: 3 degrees of free movement along 3 axes (x, y, z); and 3 degrees of free rotation
around these three axes. These axes can be placed arbitrarily in space but must be perpendicular to one another.

In order for the octahedron to rotate freely in space, you simply need to provide it with the ability to rotate
around three mutually perpendicular axes, and these axes of rotation must pass through its center of mass (coinciding
with the geometric center). Otherwise, the weight of the octahedron located above the axis of rotation and the
weight of the octahedron located below will be different, and gravity will prevent it from rotating freely around
one or more axes.

To make the octahedron capable of rotating around one axis, you need to install it in a frame between two
swivel hinges (see Fig. 6) such that the axis of rotation of both hinges is the same and passes through the center
of gravity of the octahedron.

Congratulations—we have made the octahedron capable of rotating freely around the first axis!

Hinge forming
the first axis of rotation

First frame

Fig. 6

11
 §5 Mechanical UGEARS Random Generator

Second frame

Hinges

Fig. 7

But how can you make the octahedron capable of simultaneously rotating around another axis?
Well, to do that you need to place the first frame into the second frame and connect them with swivel hinges so
that the axis of rotation of this second pair of hinges is the same, and also passes through the octahedron’s center
of gravity (see Fig. 7). Note that this second axis of rotation should be located at a 90o angle from the first axis.

In order to make the octahedron capable of rotating around the third axis (perpendicular to the first two axes),
you need to connect the second frame to a third frame in the same way, again using swivel hinges whose axis of
rotation passes through the center of gravity of the octahedron, and at a 90o angle relative to the other two axes
(see Fig. 8).

Lever

Hinges forming
the third axis
of rotation

Fig. 8

12
 §5 Mechanical UGEARS Random Generator

Thus, the UGEARS Random Generator is designed so that the hollow octahedron is capable of freely rotating in
space around three mutually-perpendicular axes.

To set the octahedron in motion, you simply press a special lever (see Fig. 8) which uses a gear transmission to
create a sharp rotation of the second frame around the third axis of rotation. Under this strong initial impetus, the
octahedron rotates simultaneously around all three axes.

Once friction overcomes inertia the octahedron can come to rest in any spatial orientation. The weight of the
metal ball, which comes to rest in any of six vertices, ensures that one of the vertices of the octahedron will always
face bottom.

Because all six axes of rotation pass through the center of gravity of the octahedron, the probability of the
ball coming to rest in any particular vertex is equal, and there is an equal chance that any of the six «answers,» or
inscribed discs, will appear on top.

Congratulations—you now understand how to calculate the “probability of events” and how the UGEARS Random
Generator works!

13
§6
Test your
TEST
1. What does the numeric probability of an event indicate?
a) The number of attempts needed to make a random event occur
b) The relation between the expected number of occurrences of an event and
the number of attempts made
c) The number of occurrences of the event

knowledge 2. What is the range of the probability of an event?

a) From 0 to 10
b) From -1 to 1
c) From 0 to 1

3.What is the probability of an impossible event?

a) 0
b) 1
c) 10

4. To roughly calculate how many times a random event is likely to occur,

knowing the number of attempts and the probability of this event,
a) Find the sum of the number of attempts and the probability of the event
b) Divide the number of attempts by the probability of the event
c) Multiply the number of attempts by the probability of the event

Task 1.
Imagine that the octahedron in the UGEARS Random Generator is replaced by
an icosahedron (a regular polyhedron with 20 equilateral triangle faces, having 12
vertices) (see Fig. 9).
How many different answers could such a device give?
What is the probability of getting any particular one of the answers?

Task 2.
Imagine a die in the shape of an icosahedron. When you toss this die, one of the
faces will appear at the top. Each face of the icosahedron has its own unique number
(numbers are not repeated) starting from one (1,2,3...). What is the probability of
getting the face containing the number 1?

Fig. 9

Congratulations! You made it!

Thank you for joining us on this adventure. We hope you had fun and
learned a thing or two!
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