Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences

June 2022, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 16-43

ISSN 2334-2447 (Print) 2334-2455 (Online)
Copyright © The Author(s). All Rights Reserved.
Published by American Research Institute for Policy Development
DOI: 10.15640/jges.v10n1a2
URL: https://doi.org/10.15640/jges.v10n1a2

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Using GIS/AHP in Jalingo Metropolis., Taraba

State, Nigeria

Hajara A. Garba1, Ezekiel B. Bwadi1, John B. Nicodemus1., Kwena R. Albert1, Iguisi E. O2. &
Folorunsho J. O.3

Abstract
This study identifies areas that are vulnerable to flood in Jalingo Metropolis using Remote Sensing and
Geographical Information System (GIS) Techniques. Remote Sensing was used to generate the landuse
map of the study area and GIS was used to integrate various layers of information to produce a
vulnerability map. Multicriteria Evaluation particularly Analytical Hierarchical Process was employed to
determine the influence of flood causative factors (elevation, slope, soil, drainage density, rainfall and land
use land cover) on flood vulnerability in the study area. Weighted overlay tool in ArcGIS 10.1 was used
to generate the final vulnerability map. Findings from the study revealed that elevation has the greatest
influence on flood occurrences in the study area. The results also showed that areas that are highly
vulnerable to flood constitute about 45% of the study area while moderate and low vulnerable areas
constitute about 37% and 18% respectively. An estimate of 127,615 people is at risk of flood as revealed
by the research. The study recommends improved land use planning, resettlement of communities along
the river to safer areas and raising awareness of residents of the study area as measures to mitigate flood
disaster.
Keywords: Assessment, Analytical Hierarchical Process, Flood, Multi-criteria, Vulnerability

1.1 Introduction
Flood has been defined by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR,
2004)as a general temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of normally dry areas from overflow of
inland or tidal waters or from unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source.
According to Laner, Fellner, and Brunner (2009) and Merten, Nielsen, Soetarto, and Faust (2021) floods are
purely environmental hazards which result from a number of basic causes of which the most frequent are
climatologically in nature, but very often induced by man’s improper utilization or abuse of the environment.
Flood is considered the world’s worst global hazard in terms of its magnitude, occurrence and geographical
spread, loss of lives and properties, and displacement of people and socio-economic activities (Mukoro,
Agunbiade, & Yakubu, 2015). It is also regarded as the costliest natural hazard in the world that accounts for
about 31% of the economic losses resulting from natural catastrophes (Galy & Sanders, 2002), and causes about
one-third of all deaths, injuries and damages from natural disasters (Ologunorisa & Abawua, 2005).
Enormous damage both in terms of properties and lives have been recorded as a result of floods all
around the world. In July 1998, the Yangtze River in Yueyang, Hunan Province in China, overflowed its banks
killing more than 4,000 people and drove millions from their homes. The event has been described as one of the
worst on record (O'Connor & Costa, 2004). Goodwell et al. (2014) records the damage wrecked by the
Mississippi River in the United States of America at over several millions of dollars when it overflowed its bank
flooding towns, farmlands and major industrial installations and ravaging the state of Iowa. Similarly, several
parts of Netherlands in 1998, experienced intense rainfall which led to the destruction of 2470 houses, 1220
premises, and 350 governmental agencies(Jak & Kok, 2000).

1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Taraba State University, Jalingo

2 Department of Geography Faculty of Physical Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria Nigeria
3 Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Science, Federal University Lokoja, Kogi State
Garba. et al. 17

On February 20, 2013 four people were killed overnight in flash floods in the village of
Novomikhailovsky Russia's Black Sea region after torrential rains caused the local river to burst its banks. About
1,500 people were displaced from their homes, and 600 houses were flooded. Electricity was cut off, leaving
more than 11,000 people without power. A total of 352,434 people were affected (Neußner, 2021). Barely five
days after this incidence, was the northern town of Kumanovo in Macedonia hit by floods on February 26 as a
result of heavy rainfall that left one dead, bridges wiped out and homes and fields inundated. Roughly 300 homes
were also flooded in the village of Josifovo, 100 kilometers south of the capital of Skopje. An estimated
population of 2,001,302 persons are said to have been affected (Neußner, 2021).
In recent years, African countries have also had devastating experiences, for example between August
and September 2007, an estimated 1.5 million people were affected and other 300 killed as a result of floods that
swept through 22 countries, from the east to west coast of the continent, the worst hit being Uganda, Sudan,
Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Democratic Republic of Congo (National Geographic News, 2007).
Nigerian has suffered same fate like the rest of the world as floods have almost become annual events
most especially in urban centers (Egya, 2021). Despite the government’s step up measures on compensation and
rehabilitation, the situation seems to be worsening by the day. It has been specifically observed by Adedeji,
Odufuwa, and Adebayo (2012) that urban flooding is a phenomenon of every rainy season in Lagos, Maiduguri,
Aba, Warri, Benin, Ibadan and a constant occurrence in towns located on flat or low lying terrain especially
where little or no provision has been made for surface drainage, or where existing drainage has been blocked
with municipal waste and other materials. With an urbanization rate of 5.5% yearly; the highest in the world,
Nigerian cities of today face numerous problems which include deteriorating environment, urban decay, un-
cleared refuse, flooding, erosion and pollution (Adedeji et al., 2012).
Flood events have destroyed lives and properties, polluted water resources and increased the risk of
diseases (Adedeji et al., 2012; Birmah, Kigun, Alfred, Majidadi, & Surajo, 2021). While flood hazard is natural,
human influence in the modification and alteration of urban space exacerbates the problem. The disastrous
consequences are dependent on the degree of human activities and occupancy in vulnerable areas (Iyalomhe &
Cirella, 2018; Mashi, Inkani, Obaro, & Asanarimam, 2020; Wahab & Falola, 2022). Worthy of note however is
the fact that although flooding generally is a source of distress to most people, it can be quite beneficial. For
example ancient civilizations like Egypt blossomed as a result of silt deposited by flood waters of the Nile, excess
flood waters may be held in reservoirs and used to provide water for homes, industries and generate electricity
(Ologunorisa, Obioma, & Eludoyin, 2022), and fishermen need not to paddle their canoes to the far end of the
river before catching fishes (Etuonovbe, 2011)
Several studies(Adedeji et al., 2012; Cirella & Iyalomhe, 2018; Echendu, 2020; Etuonovbe, 2011;
Ologunorisa et al., 2022; Olorunfemi, Komolafe, Fasinmirin, Olufayo, & Akande, 2020)have shown that societies
vulnerability to flood have increased due to land use practices employed. With increasing human alteration and
development of the catchment area these studies revealed that runoff generation process is changed, especially
through decreasing the infiltration capacity of the soil and the change of soil cover. Environmental degradation
coupled with uncontrolled urban development in high-risk zones, leads to an increased vulnerability of those
communities on the floodplains to catastrophic events (World Meteorological Organization /Global Water
Partnership-WMO/GWP, 2007). Ramiaramanana and Teller (2021) also pointed out that population explosion
witnessed in urban centers of developing nations as a result of rural-urban migration in search of better living
conditions has led to occupation of flood vulnerable areas. Climate change as a result of global warming is
expected to bring about the increase in the frequency of flood events as temperatures rise, ice melts, sea levels
rise with attendant consequences (Salimi & Al-Ghamdi, 2020). These changes pose a serious threat to human
lives, economic development and the natural world on which much of our prosperity depends. Society therefore
needs to take measures to adapt to these unavoidable impacts while taking action to cut the greenhouse gas
emissions that are almost certainly causing climate change.
Obi, Nwachukwu, Okeke, and Jiburum (2021) have observed that one way to mitigate the effects of
flooding is to ensure that all vulnerable areas are identified and adequate precautionary measures taken to ensure
either or all of adequate preparedness, effective response, quick recovery and effective prevention. In order to
facilitate the mitigation process, the authors emphasized the need for information on important indices of flood
risk identification which are elevation, slope orientation, proximity of built-up areas to drainages, network of
drains, presence of buffers, extent of inundation, cultural practices as well as attitudes and perceptions.

Ozim, Olufemi, Ekpo, Alamaeze, and Mbanaso (2021) and Ishaya, Ifatimehin, and Abaje (2009)are of
the view that flood vulnerability mapping can offer a hundred percent security against floods as it creates easily-
18 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

read, rapidly-accessible charts and maps that can facilitate administrators and planners to identify areas at risk and
prioritize their mitigation/ response efforts(John-Nwagwu, Edith, & Hassan, 2014). Jalingo, in recent years
(2005, 2011, and 2012) has experienced catastrophic flood events resulting to loss of lives and destruction of
properties worth millions of naira. These flood events have been attributed to heavy rainstorm worsened by the
physical setting of the area which is characterized by undulating plains interrupted in places by low rising hills
(Oruonye, 2012) as well as the presence or rivers Mayo-gwoi and Lamurde which traverse the low lying areas. In
the event of heavy rainfall, these rivers overflow their banks thereby endangering human lives and properties
which have encroached unto the floodplains due to population explosion experienced in the area since it became
a state capital in 1991. The knowledge of the vulnerability status of this area cannot be overemphasized as it will
serve as a tool for decision makers and consequently facilitate flood mitigation strategies.
Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) is a Geographical Information System (GIS) based decision making tool
that is used to analyzea series of factors or criteria with a view to ranking them from the most preferable to the
least preferable using a structured approach (Carver, 1991; Ezekiel, Mustafa, Adelalu, & Yusuf, 2022; Villacreses,
Martínez-Gómez, Jijón, & Cordovez, 2022). MCE has been developed to improve spatial decision making when
a set of alternatives need to be evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria (Malczewski,
2006). While GIS techniques and procedures support decision system by the integration of spatially referenced
data in a problem solving environment (Malczewski & Rinner, 2015), MCE provides a rich collection of
techniques and procedures for structuring decision problems, designing, evaluating and prioritizing alternative
decisions (Boroushaki & Malczewski, 2010). GIS-MCE thus can be thought of as a process that transforms and
combines geographical data and value judgments to obtain information for decision making (Carver, 1991). The
end results of this synergy are usually composite maps that serve as a basis for decision making in many fields,
for example locating groundwater potential zones (Hachem, Ali, El Ouali Abdelhadi, & Said, 2015), site
suitability studies (Bwadi & Mustafa, 2019) and flood vulnerability assessments(Gashaw & Legesse, 2011; Legesse
& Gashaw, 2008; Yahaya, Ahmad, & Abdalla, 2010). It is the foundation on which this study is built.
Since a relationship exists between urbanization and hydrological characteristics; decreased infiltration,
increased runoff, increase in frequency and flood height (Alaghmand, Abdullah, Abustan, & Vosoogh, 2010),
successful flood disaster mitigation requires detailed knowledge about the expected frequency, character, and
magnitude of hazardous events in an area as well as the vulnerability of the people, buildings, infrastructures and
economic activities in a potential dangerous area(van Westen & Hofstee, 2000). Ishaya et al. (2009) however
note that this detailed knowledge is always lacking in most urban centers of the developing world especially
Nigeria.
2.0 Materials and Methods
2.1 Study Area
Jalingo, the Capital city of Taraba State lies between latitude 8o 47N to 9o 01N of the equator and
longitudes 11o 09E to 11o 30E of the Greenwich Meridian. The area is bounded by Lau local government area
to the North, Yorro to the East, and Ardo-kola local government area to the South with a total land mass of
195km2 (Oruonye & Abbas, 2011),as shown in Fig.1.
According to Nasidi and Bello (2020) the study area was a native authority district during the colonial era
and remained so until 1976 when it was transformed into a local government area. The present day Jalingo has
served as the State headquarters upon the creation of Taraba State in 1991 by the Babangida administration and
the seat of the Muri Emirate Council (Oruonye & Abbas, 2011). From the southern part of the country, Jalingo
can be accessed through Benue and Plateau States at Wukari and Ibi Local Government Areas respectively and
through Gassol and Ardo-Kola Local Government Areas, while from the northern axis, Jalingo can be accessed
through Adamawa State at Mayo-Belwa, Zing, Lau and Yorro Local Government Areas on one hand and
through Demsa and Numan Local Government Areas on the other hand (Oruonye and Bashir, 2011).
The climate of Jalingo is of the tropical continental type, characterized by well-marked wet and dry
seasons (Oruonye and Bashir, 2011). The wet season which lasts for a period of six (6) months usually begins
around April and ends in October with a break coming up sometime in July (Udo, 1970). The rains are at their
peaks usually between August and September. However, the break is not fixed as it sometimes extends into
August (Nasidi & Bello, 2020) About 60% of the rain in the study area falls between the months of July and
September. The dry season is characterized by the prevalence of the northeast trade winds popularly known as
harmattan wind which begins in November and ends in March. Jalingo has a mean rainfall of about 1,200mm
and an annual temperature of 290C with the highest temperature experienced in the month of March.
Garba. et al. 19

Relative humidity ranges between 60-70% during the wet season to about 35-45% in the dry season
(Oruonye and Bashir, 2011). The study area is drained by River Lamurde, which is fed by smaller stream; Mayo-
gwoi. Their content is emptied into the Benue river system at Tau village, dotted with ox-bow lakes that have
been formed as a result of the depositional activities of the two afore mentioned rivers (Oruonye and Bashir,
2011).
The study area consists of sandstones of the Yolde formations which mark the transition from marine to
continental sedimentation. In some areas, there is the alternating sequence of shale, mudstones with minor
sandstones. The town is situated on the undifferentiated basement complex rock system. The outcrop of this
rock is seen in the heart of the town popularly referred to as Jalingo hill. Quartz, mica and feldspar in fairly equal
proportions are some of the constituent minerals that make up this rock. The rock is overlain by sandy-loam soil
characterized by hydromorphic and ferruginous soils derived from the parent materials (Oruonye and Bashir,
2011).
Oruonye and Bashir (2011) revealed that the relief of Jalingo local government area consists of
undulating plain intersected with hill ranges. The compact massifs of rocks run from Kona area through the
border between Jalingo and Lau to Yorro and Ardo-kola local government areas in a circular form to Gongon
area, giving a periscopic semi-circle shape that is almost like a shield to the town. From any vantage point in
Jalingo, one can have a glimpse of these beautiful ranges in the background.
The soil of the study area is sandy clay in some parts and sandy loam in others. According to Federal
Department of Agricultural Land Resource-FDALR of Nigeria (1990), the sandy clay is moderately poorly
drained while the sandy loam on the other hand is well drained. The soil favors the cultivation of groundnut,
while the sandy loam supports the cultivation of yam, maize, and guinea corn (Nasidi & Bello, 2020).
The study area is dominated by grassland (Guinea savannah) being in the northern part of the State, with
sparsely scattered trees, though urbanization has taken its toll on the original vegetation. Local tree species
include locust bean, sheabutter, baobab and silk cotton (Adagba, 2000; Oruonye and Bashir, 2011). The
Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus tereticornis), Neem (Azadirachtaindica), and Gmelina (Arborea) trees have been domesticated
(Nasidi & Bello, 2020)
 20 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Figure. 1.1: Map of the Study Area

2.2 Methodology
2.2.1 Types and Sources of Data
Both Primary and Secondary data were used in this study.
(i) SPOT 7 Imagery with 1m spatial resolution, acquired in 2014was used to extract land use land cover (LULC) of
the study area where Object-based classification method was employed to carry out the task.
(ii) Global Positioning System (GPS) was used to acquire coordinates of residential educational, commercial, and
health facilities to determine their vulnerability status.
(i) Topographic map on scale 1:100,000 acquired from the State Ministry of Lands and Survey and Soil map at a
scale 1:650,000 obtained from the Department of Soil Science, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria covering the
study area were used to extract the drainage and different soil types respectively.
(ii) Rainfall data of three (3) stations Yola, Gassol, and Gembu lying around the study area was obtained from Upper
Benue River Basin Development Authority (UBRBDA), Yola, Adamawa State and also used to generate a
thematic layer.
(iii) Advance Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) imagery of 30m resolution covering
the study area was downloaded from United States Geological Survey (USGS) website, www.glovis.usgs.gov., and
employed in the research to extract slope and elevation data.
(iv) The Point data of localities within the study area and their Population data of NPC (1991) was obtained
from the State office of the NPC and used to determine vulnerability status of localities and population at risk
respectively.
(v) Existing literature from journals, thesis and reports, conferences and web references were also used.
2.2.2 Hardware and Software
Hardware
i. High speed memory digital electronic computer hardware Dell laptop was used.
Software
i. ENVI 4.5 was used for land use land cover classification.
ii. ArcGIS 10.1 was used to generate and integrate the thematic maps for the analysis.
iii. AHP software (Klaus D. Goepelversion 19.02.2013) was used in pair-wise comparison of the factors.
2.3. Methods of Data Collection
Reconnaissance survey
Reconnaissance survey was carried out in order to have a general knowledge of the study area.
Information collected at this stage aided the visual image interpretation process and image classification.
Image Pre-processing
The SPOT 7 Imagery of (1m) resolution was registered using the UTM Zone 32 North and datum WGS
1984. There was no need for geometric and radiometric corrections because the image is orthorectified. This was
followed by subsetting, which is the process of clipping out the Area of Interest (AOI) otherwise known as the
study area from the image. The Spot Imagery (1m) resolution and ASTER data of 30m resolution were both sub-
mapped to Jalingo.
Image Classification
Image classification is a procedure for categorizing all pixels in an image of a terrain into land use land
cover classes. Image classification was carried out using the Object based classification method in ENVI 4.5 to
determine the land use land cover type in the image. Unsupervised classification was performed in order to have
a general idea of the area which was followed by supervised classification for the final land use land cover classes
mapping. Information obtained from ground truthing was used to reaffirm land use land cover classes class
before subjecting the imagery to supervised classification using the Object based classification. The land use land
cover classes of the study area was classified based on Anderson, Hardy, Roach, and Witner (2001) classification
of Agriculture, built-up land, bare surfaces, forest, wetland and water body. It was however modified to suit the
study area after ground truthing.
Image Transformation
Image transformation was employed to differentiate the various brightness values which may cause
conflicting appearances as a result of identical surfaces appearing on the image due to slope, aspect, topography,
shadows as well as sunlight illumination angle and intensity.
Garba. et al. 21

2.4 GIS Analysis

Thematic maps were produced for all six factors that affect flood in the study area and inputted into a
GIS environment for proper analysis by creating a geo-database for proper data management of all dataset
involved in the study. The dataset included land use land cover classes, drainage density, soil, rainfall, elevation
and slope. All data layers derived were converted to raster data sets having the same pixel size. Each data set in a
single map was given weight by pair-wise comparison; in addition the six (6) factor maps were compared with
each other in pair-wise comparison. Reclassification of each map was done based on the weights produced.
Land use/cover
The land use land cover classes of Jalingo metropolis was obtained from Spot Imagery by subjecting it to
unsupervised classification using ENVI 4.5 which gave a general idea of the land use land cover classes of the
area. Information obtained from ground truthing was used to reaffirm classes before subjecting the imagery to
supervised classification using the object based classification. The land use land cover class of the study area was
classified based on ground truthing.
Drainage
The topographic map of Jalingo obtained from Sheet 215 (Jalingo) of scale 1:100,000, First edition was
scanned and imported into ArcGIS 10.1 environment where it was geo-referenced based on the map projection
UTM Zone 32 North and datum WGS 1984. The study area was clipped form the map and its drainages
digitized. Verification was also done using the Spot imagery, ASTER as well as ground truthing.
Soil
The soil map of Nigeria obtained from sheet 6 of 8 of scale 1:650,000, was scanned and imported into
ArcGIS 10.1 environment where it was geo-referenced based on the map projection UTM Zone 32 North and
datum WGS 1984. The study area was clipped from the map and the different soil types of the study were
digitized.
Rainfall
Daily rainfall data of 3 rain gauge stations that lie in the study area or near the study area has been
acquired from UBRBDA, Yola. The mean annual rainfalls for 30 years were used to
Digital Terrain Model
The ASTER data was used to generate the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the study area with the
help of the Spatial Analyst tool in ArcGIS 10.1.
Slope
The slope amount was obtained in degrees from the contours that were generated from the sub-mapped
ASTER data of Jalingo. In the GIS environment, the contours were subjected to spatial analysis using the spatial
analyst module in ArcGIS to generate the slope. The slope amount derived was further classified into appropriate
classes.
2.5 Deriving the Criterion weights using AHP
The relationship between these six thematic layers and the relationship between their various attributes
were derived using AHP. The methodology for deriving the weights of the thematic layers and their
corresponding attributes using AHP involved the following steps:
Step 1: Defining the problem clearly and decomposing it into various thematic layers containing the different
feature/classes of the individual themes so that they form a network of the model.
Step 2: Generation of Pair-wise Comparison Matrices: The relative important values are determined with Saaty’s
1-9 scale (Table .1) where a score of 1 represents equal importance between the two attributes, and a score of 9
indicates the extreme importance of one attribute compared to the other one (Saaty, 1980).
Table 1: Fundamental Scale for Pair wise Comparison
Intensity of Definition Explanation
Importance
1 Equal importance Two elements contribute equally to the
objective
22 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

3 Moderate importance Experience and judgment slightly favor one

element over another

5 Strong importance Experience and judgment strongly favor one

element over another

7 Very Strong importance One element is favored very strongly over

another; its dominance is demonstrated in
practice

9 Extreme importance The evidence favoring one element over

another is of the highest possible order of
affirmation
2,4,6, and 8 are intermediate values

Source:Saaty (1980)
Based on thematic layers used for delineating flood vulnerable zones, pair wise comparison matrix is
derived using Saaty’s nine point importance scale.
The AHP captures the idea of uncertainty in judgments’ through the consistency index (Saaty, 2008).
Saaty gave a measure of consistency, which are as follows
 Consistency Ratio (CR) is a measure of consistency of judgment amongst the criteria.
 The rule of thumb states that the CR should be less than or equal to 0.1
 Thus a value of 0-0.1 is accepted in practice.
 Any higher value indicate that the judgment warrant re-visitation
 CR thus is evaluated as follows: CR=CI/RI where
CI- represents Consistency Index which reflects the consistency of one’s judgment
CI=λmax-n/1-n
λ is calculated by averaging the value of the consistency vector (calculated factor weight)
RI- denotes Random Inconsistency index that is dependent on the sample size (Table 2).

Table 2: Random Inconsistency Indices (RI) for N-10

n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
0
R 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
I . . . . . . . .
5 8 1 2 3 4 4 4
8 9 2 4 2 1 5 9
Source: Saaty (1980)
2.6 GIS Modelling
In order to delineate flood vulnerable zones in the study area, all the weighted data sets were integrated
in ArcGIS 10.1. The final map was produced by weighted overlay where each class individual’s weight was
multiplied by the map scores and the results added. This procedure is facilitated by the equation:
S = ∑ Wi Xi, where;
S = Vulnerability
Wi = Weight for each map
Xi = Individual map
2.6.1 Identification of Elements at Risk
All houses roads and farmlands were digitized as points, lines and polygons respectively and overlaid on
the vulnerability zones to determine their status. Furthermore, point data locations of health, educational,
religious and commercial facilities were overlaid on the vulnerability map to also determine their status.
2.6.2Generation of buffers along rivers and overlay of location point data on buffered zones
Buffers of 30 and 1500meters respectively were generated along the rivers using the spatial analyst, and
point data location of localities overlaid on the buffered zones to determine the vulnerability of localities and
consequently estimate population at risk in the study area with the help of the Exponential method given as:
Garba. et al. 23

Po=Ptern, where
Po= Expected population
Pt=Population of previous year
e= Exponential
r=Growth rate (in this case 0.003)
n= Number of years interval (in this case 19 years)

3.0 Results and Discussion

3.1 Flood Vulnerable Areas
This section consists of two parts. The first presents the result of the pair-wise comparison carried out
for each dataset and the weights generated based on Saaty’s Fundamental scale of pair-wise comparison (Table
1). The second part presents the result of the pair-wise comparison carried out for the six flood causative factors
under consideration in this research and the generated flood vulnerability map (Figure 4.16). The AHP software
(Klaus D. Goepel version 19.02.2013) was used in the pair-wise comparison of the factors.
3.2 Land use/ land cover
The pair-wise comparison carried out and weights calculated for land-use (Table 3) was based on the fact
that built-up areas and cemented surfaces generate more surface runoff since they do not allow infiltration, while
others like vegetation comprising of forests and farmlands on the other hand permit interception of precipitation
which can either evaporate and return to the hydrological cycle or flow down the stem of the plants and trees
(stem flow) and then flow along the ground or infiltrate and percolate into the ground, thereby reducing the
surface runoff and consequently the flood magnitude (Lindsay-Walters, 2015). A look at the first row/first
column of Table 3 shows the comparison between built-up and built-up being rated 1 because based on Saaty’s
(1980) fundamental scale for pair-wise comparison (Table 1) they are of equal importance in flood occurrence.
However, when comparing built-up with bare-land (first row/ second column), built-up has been rated 9
indicating that it contributes more to flood occurrence than bare-land which has been rated 5. This procedure
was carried out for all the land use land cover classes with the help of the AHP software. The last two (2)
columns of the table display the weights in ratio and percentage respectively of each land use land cover class
indicating its position in influencing flood occurrence.
From the table built-up contributes more with a weight of 27, tarred road 20, bare-land and un-tarred
road 16, vegetation 13 and water-body 7. With a CR of 0.035, the judgment was seen to be consistent and the
result accepted.
Table 3: Weight for land use/land cover
Built- Bareland Tarred Untarred Vegetation Waterbody Weight Weight
up Road Road *100
Built-up 1 9/5 9/7 9/5 9 3 0.27 27
Bareland 5/9 1 7/5 1 5 5/3 0.16 16
Tarred 7/9 5/7 1 7/5 7 7/3 0.20 20
Road
Untarred 5/9 1 5/7 1 5 5/3 0.16 16
Road
Vegetation 1/9 1/5 1/7 1/5 1 1/3 0.13 13
Waterbody 1/3 3/5 3/7 3/5 3 1 0.07 7

Consistency Ratio = 0.035

Based on the weights generated, the land use land cover classes were reclassified (see Table 4), and the
reclassified map (Fig. 2) produced.
Table 4: Reclassified Landuse/cover
Land Use/Cover Weight Class
Built-up 27 Very high
Tarred road 20 High
Bare-land 16 Moderate
Vegetation 13 Low
Waterbody 7 Very low
24 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Figure 2: Reclassified land-use/ landcover of the study area

3.3 Drainage Density
Drainage density has been recognized by authors such as Gardiner and Gregory (1982) and Pallard,
Castellarin, and Montanari (2009) to be significantly effective on the formation of flood flows. According to the
authors, high densities can indicate a greater flood risk, while a decreasing density generally implies decreasing
flood volumes.
Garba. et al. 25

Thus, the 5 classes of drainage density generated were compared against each other (Table 5). The pair-
wise comparison done for areas with very high drainage densities against those with high has the ratio 9/7
indicating that areas with very high drainage densities rated 9, have extreme importance or influence on flood
occurrence over high which has been rated 7. The ratio of 9/5 on the first column shows that very high drainage
(9) is still extremely important over areas with moderate drainage (5) as far as flood incidences are concerned.
The digit 3 on the fourth column/ first row is actually the result of the ratio 9/3 of the comparison between very
high drainage rated 9 and low drainage rated 3. The basis for these ratings is contained in Table 1. This
procedure is repeated for all the classes against each other and weights generated automatically by the AHP
software.
The pair-wise comparison done for drainage density thus revealed that for areas with very low and low
drainage densities, weights of 4 and 12 were calculated respectively while areas with very high and high drainage
densities had high weights of 29 and 36 respectively. The CR generated stood at 0.06, thus the judgment was
accepted.
Table 5: Weight for drainage density
Very High Moderate Low Very Low Weight Weight*100
High
Very High 1 9/7 9/5 3 9 0.36 36
High 7/9 1 7/5 7/3 7 0.29 29
Moderate 5/9 5/7 1 5/3 5 0.20 20
Low 1/3 3/7 3/5 1 3 0.116 12
Very Low 1/9 1/7 1/5 1/3 1 0.038 4
Consistency Ratio=0.06
Table 6 shows the 5 classes of drainage density, their weights and reclassification.
Table 6: Reclassified drainage density
Drainage (km2) Weight Class
0-2.9 4 Very Low
2.9-9.0 12 Low
9.0-17.7 20 Moderate
17.7-29.4 29 High
29.4-60.0 36 Very High
The reclassified map of drainage density (Fig.3) was produced based on these weights. Areas with very
high drainage densities are depicted in purple and those with low in green.

Figure 3: Reclassified drainage density of the study area

26 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

3.4 Soils
Classification of soil types for analysis was done based on their ability to allow water to infiltrate into the
ground and to hold water in the ground thereby reducing run-off or vice versa as recognized by FDALR, (1990).
FDALR designated sandy clay as being moderately poorly drained and loamy sand as well drained. This therefore
implies that areas dominated by sandy clay soils are more prone to flood than areas covered by loamy sand soils
since its infiltration rate is poor.
To facilitate the comparison, sand clay has been designated as poorly drained while loamy sand has been
designated as well drained. The pair-wise comparison done for poorly drained and well drained shows a ratio of
9/5, indicating that poorly drained soil rated 9, has extreme importance in flood occurrence over well drained
rated 5. The reciprocal (5/9) is the case when comparing well drained and poorly drained. Table 7 shows the
weights generated after pair-wise comparison. Sandy clay has the highest weight of 64 while loamy sand has 36.
The CR of 0.1 was accepted and the reclassified map (Fig.4) subsequently produced.
Table 7: Weight for Soil
Poorly Well drained Weight Weight*100
drained
Poorly drained 1 9/5 0.64 64
Well drained 5/9 1 0.357 36
Consistency Ratio = 0.1
Table 8 presents the reclassified values of the soil types.
Table 8: Reclassified Soil
Soil type Weight Class
Sandy clay 64 Poorly drained

Loamy sand 36 Well drained

Figure 4: Reclassified soil of the study area

Garba. et al. 27

3.5 Rainfall
Based on the rainfall pattern observed in the study area, areas with amounts less than 923mm per annum
were designated moderate, those with amounts ranging between 923mm to 970mm were designated high and
areas with amounts ranging between 970mm to 2641mm per annum were designated very high. The pair-wise
comparison done was based on the fact that higher rainfall amounts will mean greater flood risk and vice versa.
The weights derived for moderate, high and very high stood at 24, 35 and 38 respectively (Table 9) .
Table 9: Weights for Rainfall
Moderate High Very High Weight Weight*100
Moderate 1 5/7 5/9 0.24 24
High 7/5 1 7/9 0.35 35
Very High 9/5 9/7 1 0.38 38
Consistency Ratio= 0.058
The reclassified values are presented in Table 10 and the reclassified rainfall map (Fig. 5) was produced
based on the weight calculated.
Table 10: Reclassified Rainfall
Rainfall (mm) Weight Class
‹923 24 Moderate

923-970 35 High

970-2641 38 Very high

Figure 5: Reclassified Rainfallof the Study Area

28 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

3.6 Elevation
The pair-wise comparison for elevation (Table 11) was done based on the fact that areas on low
elevations, lying adjacent the rivers are prone to flood while those on high elevations are less prone. A look at the
first row/first column with elevation ranging between 148.9-180.8meters shows rating of 1 indicating that they
are of equal importance while the first row/ second column shows a ratio that depicts that areas with elevations
ranging between 148.9-180.8meters rated 9, has extreme importance over areas with heights of 180.8-197.5
meters rated 7 in contributing to flood in the area (Table.1). In order words, areas found on the former elevation
can easily get flooded than those found on the latter even though all of them can be categorized as been on low
elevations. Pair-wise comparison is carried out for all the classes and weights generated. A CR of 0.071 was
arrived at and the result was thus accepted.
Table 11: Weight for Elevation
148.9- 180.8- 197.5- 214.2- 238.6- 325.5- Weight Weight
180.8 197.5 214.2 238.6 325.5 525.0 *100
148.9- 1 9/7 9/5 3 9 9 0.35 35
180.8
180.8- 7/9 1 7/5 7/3 7 7 0.271 27
197.5
197.5- 5/9 5/7 1 5/3 5 5 0.193 19
214.2
214.2- 1/3 3/7 3/5 1 3 3 0.115 12
238.6
238.6- 1/9 1/7 1/5 1/3 1 1 0.035 4
325.5
325.5- 1/9 1/7 1/5 1/3 1 1 0.035 3
525.0
Consistency Ratio= 0.071

The weights and reclassified values for elevation are presented in Table 12., while Figure 6 shows the
reclassified elevation map of the study area that was generated from the weights derived.

Table 12: Reclassified Elevation Values

Elevation (m) Weight Class
148.9-180.8 35 Very flat
180.8-197.5 27 Flat
197.5-214.2 19 Moderate
214.2-238.6 12 High
238.6-325.5 4 Very high
325.5-525.0 3 Hilly
Garba. et al. 29

Figure 6: Reclassified Elevation of the Study Area

3.7 Slope
Lindsay-Walters (2015) observed that the topography of the drainage basin can affect the speed with
which the precipitation flows: with great angle, it will be faster, and with more obtuse angle, it will be slower due
to the effects of gravity, in other words the steeper the basin, the more quickly it drains and vice versa. The pair-
wise comparison carried out and weights calculated (Table 13) for slope angle was based on the fact that the
flatter the topography (low slope angle), the greater the chances for water to accumulate on the surface and vice
versa.
30 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Table 13: Weight for Slope

Flat Gentle Moderate Steep Very Steep Weight Weight*100
Flat 1 9/7 9/5 3 9 0.362 36
Gentle 7/9 1 7/5 7/3 7 0.284 28
Moderate 5/9 5/7 1 5/3 5 0.202 20
Steep 1/3 3/7 3/5 1 3 0.116 12
Very Steep 1/9 1/7 1/5 1/3 1 0.038 4
Consistency Ratio=0.06
With a CR of 0.06, the judgment was seen to be consistent. The slope class and weights generated are
presented in Table 14, and the reclassified slope map in Figure 7.
Table 14: Reclassified Slope Values
Slope class Weight Value (%)
Flat 36 0-3.1
Gentle 28 3.1-5.5
Moderate 20 5.5-8.8
Steep 12 8.8-19.1
Very Steep 4 19.1-42.1

Figure 7: Reclassified Slope Map of the Study Area

Garba. et al. 31

3.8 Flood Vulnerability Map

This section presents the result of the pair-wise comparison carried out for the six flood causative
factors (Table 15) based on Saaty’s Fundamental scale of pair-wise comparison (Table.1), and the generated flood
vulnerability map (Figure 8).
Table 15: Weight for all Factor Maps
Elevation Slope LUL Drainage Rainfall Soil Weight Weight*100
C Density
Elevation 1 9/7 9/5 9/5 9/3 9/7 0.25 25
Slope 7/9 1 7/5 7/5 7/3 1 0.20 20
LULC 5/9 3/7 1 1 5/3 5/7 0.13 13
Drainage 5/9 5/7 1 1 5/3 5/7 0.13 13
density
Rainfall 3/9 3/7 3/5 3/5 1 3/7 0.08 8
Soil 7/9 1 7/5 7/5 7/3 1 0.20 20
Consistency Ratio= 0.078
The weights generated reveal that elevation with 25 as its weight has the greatest influence on flood
occurrences in the study area. Slope and soil accounted for weights of 20 each, landuse and drainage density 13
each, and rainfall 8.
A field study carried out showed that areas below 197.5 meters were submerged in the 2005 and 2011
flood events. These areas include lands around Majindadi which is about 400meters from the river on a height of
191masl, Green beach about 300meters away from the river on a height of 195 m.a.s.l and Dadinkowa hotel in
Sabongari area which is about 1000meters from the river on a height of 196meters. On the other hand areas like
Angwan sarkindawa in Sabongari on a height of 217meters has never been submerged even though it is just
about 50 meters away from the river. This affirms (Oruonye, 2012) assertion that the topography of the area
consisting of undulating plain interrupted in places by low rising hills play a great role in flood occurrence. Ismail
and Sanyol (2013) in a study conducted in Kaduna further buttress this fact as they observed that areas that lie
beside a river may not be liable to flood if it is at a great height while areas that lie far away may experience floods
if the intervening land is flat, gentle sloping or if the area lies in a depression.
The output map was thereafter reclassified into three (3) vulnerability zones of Low, Moderate and
High(Fig 8). The flood vulnerability map reveals that areas of high vulnerability constitute 45% of the study area
while moderate and low vulnerable areas constitute 37% and 18% respectively.

Figure 8:
Flood Vulnerability Map
32 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

3.9 Elements at Risk of Flood

The transparent satellite imagery of the study area overlaid on the vulnerability zones (Figure 9a) depicts
in light green color, elements that are at high risk while those at moderate and low risks are depicted in white and
brownish-red colors respectively. The findings show that the elements at high risk of flood in the study area are
those found on low lying areas along the rivers or depressions as asserted by Ismail and Sanyol (2013). These
include built-up areas consisting of both residential and commercial structures, roads and farmlands. Figure 9b is
an extract from 9a showing in greater detail a section of the study area and the elements at risk.

Figure
9a: Elements at risk
Garba. et al. 33

Figure 9b: Section of Elements at Risk

The vulnerability status of houses, roads, and farmlands were determined by using the query tool in
ArcGIS 10.1. With reference to houses, the analysis revealed that a total of 26, 986 houses are at high risk, 17,
801 at moderate risk and 2225 at low risk to flood. Figures 10, presents in light green colour, houses that fall
within the three vulnerability zones of high, moderate, and low respectively.
34 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Figure 10: Houses at High risk

A critical look at the numbers of houses in each vulnerability zone shows that those in the high risk area
outnumber those in the moderate and low risk zones put together. This may be attributed to the fact that the
former is on lower elevation consisting of nearly leveled land to gently undulating plates (FDALR, 1990) and
therefore tend to attract population due to ease of accessibility, presence of fertile soil and proximity to the river
amongst others. The background check carried out however showed that only about 762 houses were actually
affected by the 2011 flood event (Oruonye, 2014).
The query generated with respect to roads revealed that a total of 523 roads are at high risk of flood, 293
at moderate risk and 25 at low risk. Just as in the case of the houses, the number of roads at high risk outnumber
the total of that of the moderate and low zones put together. This may be attributed to the fact that construction
of roads on low and almost leveled lands are a lot easier than that on lands that are steeper. Another reason could
be that since the lowlands are where population tends to concentrate, infrastructures such as roads and other
facilities will be found in great number. Figures 11, captures the vulnerability status of the roads in the study area
according to the three zones of high, moderate and low.
Garba. et al. 35

Figure 11: Roads at risk

With respect to farmlands, about 1,632.9 hectares are found to be at high risk, 1194.94 hectares at
moderate risk and 1930.8 hectares are at low risk. These details are presented in Figures 12, in light green colour.
36 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Figure 12: Farmlands at risk

Figure 13 presents the risk status of government-owned offices, educational, health, commercial, and
religious facilities. The facilities at high risk are depicted in red while those at moderate and low risks are depicted
in yellow and blue colours respectively.
Garba. et al. 37

Figure 13: Risk status of Facilities

From the query generated, a total of 18 schools are at high risk of flood while the number of those at
moderate and low risks stood at 11 and 4 respectively. 8 hospitals are at high risk, 13 and 5 at moderate and low
risk in that order. Commercial centres made up of markets, shopping complex, motor parks, banks and fuel
stations had a total of 44 being at high risk, 57 and 7 at moderate and low risk respectively. The number for
worship centres, consisting of churches and mosques stood at 28 at high risk, 15 at moderate and 5 at low risks.
Government offices at high risk stood at 15, moderate risk stood at 34 and the number at low risk stood at 5. A
summary of the elements at risk is presented in Table 16.
Table 16: A Summary of Risk status of Elements
Elements High risk Moderate risk Low risk
No. of Houses 26,986 17801 2225
No. of Roads 523 295 25
Farmlands (ha) 1632.79 1194.94 1930.95
Schools 18 11 4
Hospitals 8 13 5
Commercial centres 44 57 7
Worship centres 28 15 5
Government Offices 15 34 4
3.10 Population at Risk of Flood in the Study Area
In order to arrive at the population at risk of flood in the study area, buffers of 30meters (Government
approved setback) and 1500meters (2011 flood extent) were generated along the rivers.
38 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Point location of localities within the study area were consequently overlaid on the buffered zones as
recommended by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 1998) and localities that fall within the
zones noted and their respective population projected to the present year. This method was adopted because
population data by wards that would have given detailed information was unavailable as at the time of this
research.
3.11 30 Meters Buffer
The 30 meter buffer generated along the rivers show that almost all the localities are relatively safe as
none of them falls within the zone (Fig 14). Although this suggests that there seem to be adherence to the
government setback distance, it does not totally rule out the encroachment of construction works on the flood
plains as seen in Plate I.
Garba. et al. 39

Figure 14: 30 Meters Buffer along Rivers

Plate I: On-going Construction Adjacent to the River at Nukkai

3.12 1500 Meters Buffer along Rivers

The 1500 meters buffer generated along the rivers (Figure 15) almost covered the whole metropolis
except Lasandi. This implies that the whole of Jalingo metropolis will be submerged in extreme events which is
unlikely because as it has been observed by authors such as Oruonye (2012) and Isma'il and Saanyol (2013), areas
on high elevations may not experience flood even if they lie adjacent the river. This criterion was however
included in this study because according to Oruonye (2012)the 2011 flood event extended that far in some areas.
It therefore means that areas that were submerged were generally low-lying areas that extended that distance
from the river into the metropolis.
40 Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2022

Figure 15: 1500 Meters Buffer along the Rivers

However based on the information captured by the 1500 meters buffer generated along the rivers, the
projected population at risk of flood for the locality of Jalingo stands at 117, 530 people, Mayo-dassa has 1484,
Mile six 1475, Magami 2237, Nassarawo 1 and 2 have 912 and 817 respectively, Nukkai 2476 and Sabon-gari 684.
Cumulatively, the population at risk of flood in the study area stands at 127, 615. These figures are presented in
Table 17.
 Garba. et al. 41

Table 17: Population at Risk

Locality Previous population (1996) Projected Population
Jalingo 66,466 117,530
Mayo dassa 839 1484
Mile six 834 1475
Magami 1265 2237
Nassarawo 1 516 912
Nassarawo 2 462 817
Nukkai 1400 2476
Sabongari 387 684
Total 72,169 127,615
The estimated population figures generated were based on projection that assumed the population of the
localities and consequently the study area was to increase at a rate of 3% per annum. However, the recent
insurgency in parts of the north east especially in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states and the ethno-religious
crises that bedeviled the southern parts of the state has led to the influx of people into Jalingo metropolis. These
incidents have not only distorted the population growth rate of the study area, but have placed more lives at risk.
The field study carried out revealed that some of the occupants of flood prone areas were refugees from the
crisis ridden areas who were either perching with relatives or had purchased lands on floodplains at ‘cheap
prices’, constructed houses on these lands and occupied them.
4.0 Conclusion
The study assessed flood vulnerability in the study area. The findings show that areas that lie along the
rivers and on low elevations are more prone to flood than those on higher elevations. It therefore means cultural
features such as residential, commercial, educational and health facilities amongst others and the populace found
within this area is at great risk of flood.
Thus, it can be concluded from this study that even though flood is a natural disaster, man contributes
significantly to its occurrence due to his involvement in activities that disrupt the environment like encroachment
of human activities on floodplain, violation of building regulations in the areas and poor nature of materials used
in building of the houses amongst others. All hands must therefore be on deck to ensure that the populace
adhere to planning regulations and stop further encroachment by way of infrastructural development along the
floodplains of Rivers Lamurde and Mayo-gwoi.
5.0 Recommendations
As at the time of this research, there is no concrete measure taken by the State or local authorities to
reduce the menace of flood in Jalingo metropolis. However, considering the reoccurring incidences of floods in
the metropolis, there is need for the State Government and other stakeholders to take precautionary measures
such as:
i. Improved land use planning that prevents development from floodplains and allowing the areas to be preserved
for agricultural or recreational purpose.
ii. Resettlement of communities along the river to safer areas
iii. Raising flood hazard awareness of residents of the metropolis through seminars, workshops etc.
iv. Moreover, research works should focus on prediction of future flood incidences and continuous vulnerability
mapping.

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