STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

SECOND SEMESTER MIDTERM/3RD QUARTER

How to estimate something?
FIND THE POPULATION MEAN

The following are the systolic blood pressures of all teachers in a private high
school.
120 110 120 130 120
130 112 125 120 130
120 120 130 110 120 σ𝑥
𝜇=
140 115 125 130 115 𝑁
145 120 123 140 130
110 140 140 120 120 𝝁 = 𝟏𝟐𝟓. 𝟔
160 120 135 130 125
130 130 140 120 110
125 150 125 110 125
115 120 130 120 130
FIND THE POPULATION MEAN

The following are the systolic blood pressures of all teachers in a private high
school.
120 110 120 130 120
130 112 125 120 130
120 120 130 110 120 σ𝑥
𝑥ҧ =
140 115 125 130 115 𝑛
145 120 123 140 130
110 140 140 120 120 ഥ = 𝟏𝟐𝟔. 𝟖
𝒙
160 120 135 130 125
130 130 140 120 110
125 150 125 110 125
115 120 130 120 130
FIND THE POPULATION MEAN

The following are the systolic blood pressures of all teachers in a private high
school.

𝝁 = 𝟏𝟐𝟓. 𝟔 ഥ = 𝟏𝟐𝟔. 𝟖
𝒙
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

A Point Estimate is a single value estimate of a parameter. For instance, a

sample mean is a point estimate of a point estimate of a population mean. The
process is called Point Estimation.

An Interval Estimate gives you a range of values where the parameter is

expected to lie. A confidence interval is the most common type of interval
estimation. Confidence interval is the ranges of values which the population
mean is most likely located instead of using the point estimate.
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Confidence level – refers to the probability that the confidence interval contains
the true population parameter. Its value is
Confidence level = 𝟏 − 𝜶 𝟏𝟎𝟎%
where 𝛼 = probability that the confidence interval does not contain the true
population parameter. Any number between 0 and 1 can be used for 𝛼 but 0.10,
0.05, and 0.01 are the ones that are commonly used. The confidence levels of
90%, 95%, and 99% are usually chosen.
Critical value – the value that indicates the point beyond which lies the rejection
region. This region does not contain the true population parameter.
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Interval Estimate of Population Mean with Known Variance

Formula for interval estimate of population mean when population variance is
known and 𝑛 ≥ 30.

𝝈 𝝈 where:
ഥ − 𝒛𝜶
𝒙 ഥ + 𝒛𝜶
,𝒙
𝟐 𝒏 𝟐 𝒏 𝑥ҧ = mean of a random variable
or 𝑛 = sample size
𝝈 𝝈 𝜎 = population standard deviation
ഥ − 𝒛𝜶
𝒙 ഥ + 𝒛𝜶
<𝝁<𝒙
𝟐 𝒏 𝟐 𝒏
𝑧𝛼 = z value at 1 − 𝛼 confidence level
2
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

The mean of a random sample of size n is usually different from the population
mean 𝜇. The difference which is added to and subtracted from the sample mean
in the computation of confidence interval is considered an error. Therefore, the
confidence interval can be written as

where:
ഥ − 𝑬, 𝒙
𝒙 ഥ+𝑬 𝜇 = mean of a random variable
or 𝐸 = margin of error
ഥ−𝑬<𝝁<𝒙
𝒙 ഥ+𝑬 𝑥ҧ − 𝐸 = the lower confidence limit
𝑥ҧ + 𝐸 = the upper confidence limit
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

The mean of a random sample of size n is usually different from the population
mean 𝜇. The difference which is added to and subtracted from the sample mean
in the computation of confidence interval is considered an error. Therefore, the
confidence interval can be written as

ഥ − 𝑬, 𝒙
𝒙 ഥ+𝑬 Margin of Error
or 𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼
ഥ−𝑬<𝝁<𝒙
𝒙 ഥ+𝑬 2 𝑛
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 1:
The mean score of a random sample of 49 Grade 11 students who took the first
periodic test is calculated to be 78. The population variance in known to be 0.16
a. Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean of the entire Grade 11
students.
b. Find the lower and upper confidence limits.
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 1 Solution:
Step 1: Find the value of 𝑧𝛼 . Confidence level = 95%
2

𝑥ҧ = 78 1 − 𝛼 100% = 95%
𝜎 2 = 0.16 1 − 𝛼 1 = 0.95 0.5 − 0.025
𝑛 = 49 1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 = 0.475
= 𝟎. 𝟒𝟕𝟓𝟎
𝛼 = 0.05
𝛼
= 0.025
2
𝒛𝜶 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔.
𝟐
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 1 Solution:
Step 2: Find 𝜎, then find the margin of error.
𝑥ҧ = 78
𝜎 2 = 0.16 𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼
𝜎= 𝜎2 2 𝑛
𝑛 = 49
0.4
𝜎 = 0.16 𝐸 = 1.96
49
𝜎 = 0.4
𝐸 = 0.112
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 1 Solution:
Step 3: Substitute the values of 𝑥ҧ and 𝐸 in the confidence interval
𝑥ҧ − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑥ҧ + 𝐸.
𝑥ҧ − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑥ҧ + 𝐸
𝑥ҧ = 78
78 − 0.112 < 𝜇 < 78 + 0.112
𝐸 = 0.112
77.888 < 𝜇 < 78.112
𝟕𝟕. 𝟖𝟗 < 𝝁 < 𝟕𝟖. 𝟏𝟏
Lower confidence limit = 77.89
Upper confidence limit = 78.11
Interpretation:
The researcher is 95% confident that the sample mean 𝑥ҧ = 78 differs from the
population mean 𝜇 by no more than 0.112 or 0.11. Also, the researcher is 95%
confident that the population mean 𝜇 is between 77.89 and 78.11 when the mean
of the sample is 78.
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 2:
Assuming normality, use the given confidence level and sample data below to
find the following:
a. Margin of error
b. Confidence interval for estimating the population parameter
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 2 Solution:
99% confidence level Step 1: Find the value of 𝑧𝛼 .
2
𝑛 = 50 Confidence level = 95%
𝑥ҧ = 18,000 1 − 𝛼 100% = 99%
𝜎 = 2,500 1 − 𝛼 1 = 0.99 0.5 − 0.005 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗𝟓
1 − 𝛼 = 0.99
𝛼 = 0.01
𝛼
= 0.005
2
 2.57+2.58
𝒛𝜶 = = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓.
𝟐 2
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 2 Solution:
99% confidence level Step 2: Find the margin of error.
𝑛 = 50
𝜎
𝑥ҧ = 18,000 𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼
2 𝑛
𝜎 = 2,500
2,500
𝐸 = 2.575
50
𝐸 = 910.40
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 2 Solution:
99% confidence level Step 3: Find the confidence interval
𝑛 = 50
𝑥ҧ = 18,000 𝑥ҧ − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑥ҧ + 𝐸
𝜎 = 2,500 18,000 − 910.40 < 𝜇 < 18,000 + 910.40
17,089.60 < 𝜇 < 18,910.40
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 2 Solution:
Alternative Formula for Determining the Margin of Error:

𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 − 𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡

𝐸=
2
18,910.40 − 17,089.60
𝐸=
2
𝐸 = 910.40
Lower confidence limit = 17,089.60
Upper confidence limit = 18,910.40
Interpretation:
The researcher is 99% confident that the sample mean 𝑥ҧ = 18,000 differs from the
population mean 𝜇 by no more than 910.40. The value of the population mean is
within the interval 17,089.60 and 18,089.40.
Common Confidence Levels with Their Corresponding Reliability
Factor

𝟏 − 𝜶 𝟏𝟎𝟎% 𝒛𝜶
Confidence Interval 𝟐

99% 2.575

95% 1.96

90% 1.645
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Sample Size for Estimating Population Mean 𝝁

Sample Size for Estimating 𝜇

where:
𝒛𝜶 𝝈 𝟐
𝑧𝛼 = critical value based on the desired
𝟐
𝒏= 2
confidence level
𝑬
𝐸 = desired margin of error
𝜎 = population standard deviation
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 3:
Find the minimum sample size required to estimate an unknown population
mean 𝜇 using the following given data.

a. b.
Confidence level = 95% Confidence interval = 90%
Margin of error = 75 Margin of error = 0.891
𝜎 = 250 𝜎2 = 9
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 3 Solution:
a. Step 1: Find 𝑧𝛼 .
2
Confidence level = 95%
Margin of error = 75 Confidence level = 95%
𝜎 = 250 1 − 𝛼 100% = 95%
1 − 𝛼 1 = 0.95
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95
𝛼 = 0.05 0.5 − 0.025 = 0.4750
𝛼 Hence, 𝑧𝛼 = 1.96
= 0.025 2
2
𝒛𝜶 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔.
𝟐
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 3 Solution:
a. Step 2:
Confidence level = 95%
𝑧𝛼 𝜎 2
Margin of error = 75
2
𝜎 = 250 𝑛=
𝐸
2
1.96(250)
𝑛=
75
𝑛 = 42.68 = 𝟒𝟑
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 3 Solution:
b. Step 1: Find 𝑧𝛼 .
2
Confidence interval =
90% 1 − 𝛼 100% = 90%
Margin of error = 0.891 1 − 𝛼 1 = 0.90
𝜎2 = 9 1 − 𝛼 = 0.90
𝛼 = 0.10
𝛼
= 0.05 0.5 − 0.05 = 0.45
2 Hence, 𝑧𝛼 = 1.645
2
 1.64 + 1.65
𝒛𝜶 = = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓
𝟐 2
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 3 Solution:
b. Step 2:
Confidence interval =
90% 𝑧𝛼 𝜎 2
Margin of error = 0.891 𝜎= 𝜎2 𝑛= 2
𝜎2 = 9 𝐸
2
𝜎= 9 1.645(3)
𝑛=
𝜎=3 0.891
𝑛 = 30.68 = 𝟑𝟏
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 4:
A researcher wants to estimate the daily expenses of college students. He wants
a 90% confidence level and a 40 margin of error. How many students must he
randomly select if in the previous survey, 𝜎 = 99.50?
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 4 Solution:

Step 1: Find the value of 𝑧𝛼 .

2

Confidence level = 95%

1 − 𝛼 100% = 99%
1 − 𝛼 1 = 0.99 0.5 − 0.005 = 0.495
1 − 𝛼 = 0.99 Hence, 𝑧𝛼 = 2.575
2
𝛼 = 0.01
𝛼
= 0.005
2
 2.57 + 2.58
𝒛𝜶 = = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓
𝟐 2
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Example 4 Solution:
Step 2:

𝑧𝛼 𝜎 2
2
𝑛=
𝐸
2
2.575(99.50)
𝑛=
40 *Always round up the answer to the next
𝑛 = 41.028 = 𝟒𝟐 integer even if the decimal part is less than 0.5
since we are talking about number of students.
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Let’s Try:
Find the critical value 𝑧𝛼 that corresponds to the given confidence level.
2

1. 88% 1.555
2. 92% 1.755
3. 96% 2.055
4. 91% 1.695
5. 94% 1.885
6. 98% 2.325
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Practical Application
The mean and standard deviation of the scores of a random sample of 45 Grade
10 students who took the final test are calculated to be 76 and 12.5,
respectively.
a. Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean of the entire Grade 10
students.
b. Find the lower and upper confidence limits.
c. Interpret the acquired lower and upper confidence limits.
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Practical Application Solution

Step 1: Find the value of 𝑧𝛼 .
2

𝑥ҧ = 76 Confidence level = 95%

𝜎 = 12.5 1 − 𝛼 100% = 95%
𝑛 = 45 1 − 𝛼 1 = 0.95 0.5 − 0.025
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 = 0.475
𝛼 = 0.05 = 0.4750
𝛼 𝒛𝜶 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
= 0.025 𝟐
2
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Practical Application Solution

Step 2: Step 3: Substitute the values of 𝑥ҧ and 𝐸
𝑥ҧ = 76 in the confidence interval 𝑥ҧ − 𝐸 < 𝜇 <
𝑥ҧ + 𝐸.
𝜎 = 12.5 𝑥ҧ − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑥ҧ + 𝐸
𝑛 = 45 𝜎 76 − 3.6522 < 𝜇 < 76 + 3.6522
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼
2 𝑛 72.3478 < 𝜇 < 79.6522
12.5 𝟕𝟐. 𝟑𝟓 < 𝝁 < 𝟕𝟗. 𝟔𝟓
𝐸 = 1.96
45 Lower confidence limit = 72.35
𝐸 = 3.6522
Upper confidence limit = 79.65
Lower confidence limit = 72.35
𝟕𝟐. 𝟑𝟓 < 𝝁 < 𝟕𝟗. 𝟔𝟓
Upper confidence limit = 79.65
From the 72.35 below and 79.65 above, the values on that area are not
approximating and estimating the true population parameter. Only in between
72.35 and 79.65 are the values that approximating and estimating the true
population parameter.
Complete the Sentence.

Estimation of the population is ______________.

POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Questions:
1. What is Point Estimate?
2. What is Interval Estimate?
3. It refers to the probability that the confidence interval contains the true
population parameter.
4. What do you call to the value at the left endpoint of the interval?
5. How critical value is essential for the margin of error?
POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Assignment #8
Find the minimum sample size required to estimate an unknown population
mean 𝜇 using the given data below.

1. Confidence level: 95% 2. Confidence interval: 90%

Margin of error = 12 Margin of error = 1.923
𝜎 = 35 𝜎 2 = 49
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