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Assignment I Stat - Methods

1) The document contains 6 problems related to probability and statistics. The problems cover topics like conditional probability, independence, probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, sample spaces, and probability of events. 2) Problem 1 involves calculating conditional probabilities for a traveling salesman given the city he is in and whether his cellphone has coverage. Problem 2 examines probabilities of communication network failures. 3) Problem 3 requires computing probabilities and statistics related to a particle contamination diameter probability density function. Problem 4 asks for cumulative distribution function values given die rolls.

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12 views

Assignment I Stat - Methods

1) The document contains 6 problems related to probability and statistics. The problems cover topics like conditional probability, independence, probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, sample spaces, and probability of events. 2) Problem 1 involves calculating conditional probabilities for a traveling salesman given the city he is in and whether his cellphone has coverage. Problem 2 examines probabilities of communication network failures. 3) Problem 3 requires computing probabilities and statistics related to a particle contamination diameter probability density function. Problem 4 asks for cumulative distribution function values given die rolls.

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id.wulansari
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Soal E

Departemen Teknik Elektro


Fakultas Teknologi Elektro Informasi Cerdas - ITS

Assignment I – Odd Semester 2023/2024


H
Course : Metode Statistik dan Optimisasi
Day / Date : Monday, 2nd Oktober 2023
D date
Due : Monday, 9th Oct 2023
Lecturer Hendra Kusuma & Rony Seto
:

1. A traveling salesman can be found at one of four cities (A,B,C,D) at any given time. His
probability of being at these cities are P(A) = 1/8, P(B) = 1/8, P(C) = 1/4, P(D) = 1/2. He
always carries his cellphone with him. Let X be the event that his cellphone has coverage. The
conditional probabilities that his cell phone has coverage given what city he is at are as
following: P(X|A) = 1/2, P(X|B) = 1, P(X|C) = 3/4, P(X|D) = 3/4.
a. Given that today his cellphone has coverage, what is the probability that he is at city B ?
b. Let Y be the event that his cellphone is at least 70% charged. He usually remembers to
recharge his cell phone every evening so the probability that his cell phone is at least 70%
charged at any given time is 4/5. Events X and Y are independent. What is the probability
that his cellphone is less than 70% charged AND out of coverage at the same time?

2. The figure below shows a communication network with the the following events definition :
X: link a fails, Y: link b fails, Z: link c fails, and Q: S cannot communicate with R

a. Assume link failures are independent events. Write an expression in the Algebra of Events
for the event Q. Your expression should be in terms of the events X, Y, and Z.
b. Repeat part (a) for the following network, shown below

c. If every link has the same probability of failure P[X] = P[Y] = P [Z] = p = 0.1, then which
network has the lowest P[Q]? Justify your answer.

3. A particle of contamination diameter (in µm) is modeled with the (PDF) probability density
function fX (x) = 2∕x3 for x > 1. Determine the following:
a. P(X < 2)

1
b. P(X < 4 or X > 8)
c. x such that P(X < x) = 0.95
d. E[X]
e. Var[X].

4. Paijo rolls a fair six sided die repeatedly until the sum of all numbers rolled is greater than 6.
Let X be the number of times Paijo rolls the die. Let F(x) be the cumulative distribution
function for X. Compute F(1), F(2), and F(7).

5. In a certain factory, a product is composed of 5 components, each of which is either working


or failed. Consider an experiment that consists of observing the status of each component,
and let the outcome of the experiment be given by the vector (x1, x2, x3, x4, x5), where xi
is equal to 1 if the component i is working and is equal to 0 if the component i is failed.
(a) How many outcomes are in the sample space of this experiment?
(b) Suppose that the product will work if components 2 and 3 are both working, or if
components 4 and 5 are both working, or if components 1, 2, and 4 are all working.
Let S be the event that the system will work. Specify all the outcomes in S.
(c) Let F be the event that components 1 and 5 are both failed. How many outcomes are
contained in the event F?
(d) Write out all the outcomes in the event FS.

6. A university is offering 3 language classes: one in German, one in Japanese, and one in Spanish. These
classes are open to any of the 100 students in the school. There are 30 students in the German class,
26 in the Japanese class, and 15 in the Spanish class. There are 12 students that are in both German
and Japanese, 4 that are in both Spanish and German, and 6 that are in both Japanese and Spanish. In
addition, there are 5 students taking all three classes.
a. If a student is chosen randomly, what is the probability that he or she is not in any of the language
classes?
b. If a student is chosen randomly, what is the probability that he or she is taking exactly one
language class?
c. If 2 students are chosen randomly, what is the probability that at least 1 is taking a language
class?

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