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Introduction to Probability
and Statistics

Chapter 2
Discrete Probability Distributions

Dr. Ahmed Kafafy-FCI Menoufia University

Dr Ahmed Kafafy-FCI Menoufia university.

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Discrete Random Variables

• Discrete random variables take on only

a finite or countable many of values.

Number of heads in 1000 trials of coin tossing

Number of cars that enter UNI in a certain day

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Discrete example: roll of a die

• Probability mass function (pmf)

x p(x)
p(x)
1 p(x=1)=1/6

2 p(x=2)=1/6
1/6
3 p(x=3)=1/6

4 p(x=4)=1/6 x
1 2 3 4 5 6

5 p(x=5)=1/6

6 p(x=6)=1/6  P(x)  1
all x
1.0
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Cumulative distribution function (CDF)

x P(x≤A)
1 P(x≤1)=1/6
1.0 P(x)
2 P(x≤2)=2/6 5/6
2/3
3 P(x≤3)=3/6
1/2
4 P(x≤4)=4/6 1/3
1/6
5 P(x≤5)=5/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 x
6 P(x≤6)=6/6

1. What’s the probability that you roll a 3 or less?

P(x≤3)=1/2
2. What’s the probability that you roll a 5 or higher?
P(x≥5) = 1 – P(x≤4) = 1-2/3 = 1/3
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Practice Problem

Which of the following are probability functions?

a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4

c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3

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Answer (a)

a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

x f(x) Yes, probability

function!
9 .25
10 .25
11 .25

12 .25

1.0
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Answer (b)

b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4

x f(x)
Though this sums to 1,
1 (3-1)/2=1.0 you can’t have a negative
probability; therefore, it’s
2 (3-2)/2=.5 not a probability
function.
3 (3-3)/2=0

4 (3-4)/2=-.5

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Answer (c)
c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3

x f(x)

0 1/25
1 3/25
Doesn’t sum to 1. Thus,
2 7/25 it’s not a probability
function.
3 13/25

24/25
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Important discrete distributions …

• Binomial
– Yes/no outcomes (dead/alive,
treated/untreated, smoker/non-smoker,
sick/well, etc.)
• Poisson
– Counts (e.g., how many cases of
disease in a given area)

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Binomial Random Variable

• The coin-tossing experiment is a simple example of a

binomial random variable. Toss a fair coin n = 3 times
and record
• x = number of heads.
x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8

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The Binomial Experiment

1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes,
success (S) or failure (F).
3. Probability of success on a single trial is p and
remains constant from trial to trial. The
probability of failure is q = 1 – p.
4. Trials are independent.
5. Random variable x, the number of successes
in n trials.

x – Binomial random variable with

parameters n and p
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Binomial or Not? m
m m
m mm

• A box contains 4 green M&Ms and 5

red ones
• Take out 3 with replacement
• x denotes number of greens

Yes,
• Is x binomial? 3 trials are independent with
same probability of getting a
green.
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Binomial or Not? m
m m
m mm

• A box contains 4 green M&Ms and 5

red ones
• Take out 3 without replacement
• x denotes number of greens

NO, when we take out the

• Is x binomial? second M&M, the probability
of getting a green depends on
color of the first.
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3 trials are dependent.
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Binomial or Not?

• Very few real life applications

satisfy these requirements exactly.
• Select 10 people from the U.S. population,
and suppose that 15% of the population has
the Alzheimer’s gene.
• For the first person, p = P(gene) = .15
• For the second person, p  P(gene) = .15,
even though one person has been removed
from the population…
• For the tenth person, p  P(gene) = .15
Yes, independent trials with the
122 same probability of success
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Binomial Random Variable

• Rule of Thumb:
Sample size n; Population size N;
If n/N < .05, the experiment is Binomial.

• Example: A geneticist samples 10

people and x counts the number who
have a gene linked to Alzheimer’s
disease.
• Success: • Number of
Has gene trials: n = 10

• Failure: • Probability of
Doesn’t have gene
Success p = P(has gene) = 0.15
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Example

• Toss a coin 10 times

• For each single trial, probability of getting a
head is 0.4
• Let x denote the number of heads

Find probability of getting exactly 3 heads.

i.e. P(x=3).
Find probability distribution of x

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Solution

• Simple events: Strings of H’s and T’s

with length 10
• Event A: {strings with exactly 3 H’s};
HTTTHTHTTT
TTHHTTTTHT…
• Probability of getting a given string in A:
HTTTHTHTTT (0.4) 3 ( 0 . 6 ) 7
• Number of strings in A
C 10
3

• Probability of event A. i.e. P(x=3)

C 10 3
3 (0.4) ( 0 . 6 )
7

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A General Example

• Toss a coin n times; For each single trial,

probability of getting a head is p;
• Let x denote the number of heads;

Find the probability of getting exactly k

heads. i.e. P(x=k)
Find probability distribution of x.

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Binomial Probability Distribution

• For a binomial experiment with n trials and

probability p of success on a given trial, the
probability of k successes in n trials is

P ( x  k )  C kn p k q n  k
for k  0 ,1, 2 ,... n

n!
Recall C kn 
k ! ( n  k )!
with n!  n ( n  1)( n  2)...( 2 )1 and 0!  1.

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Binomial Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation

• For a binomial experiment with n trials and

probability p of success on a given trial, the
measures of center and spread are:

Mean :   np
Variance :  2  npq
Standard Deviation :   npq

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Example

A marksman hits a target 80% of the

time. He fires 5 shots at the target.
What is the probability that exactly 3 shots hit
the target?
n= 5 success = hit p = .8 x = # of hits
5!
P( x  3)  C3n p 3q n3  (.8)3 (.2)53
3!2!

 10(.8)3 (.2) 2  .2048

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Example

What is the probability that more than 3 shots

hit the target?
P( x  3)  P (4)  P(5)
 C45 p 4 q 5 4  C55 p 5 q 55
5! 5!
 (. 8 ) 4 (. 2 )1  (. 8 ) 5 (. 2 ) 0
4!1! 5!0!
4 5
 5(.8) (.2)  (.8)  .7373

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Example
• x = number of hits.
• What are the mean and standard
deviation for x? (n=5,p=.8)
Mean :   np  5(.8)  4

Standard Deviation :   npq

 5(.8)(.2)  .89


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Cumulative Probability

You can use the cumulative probability tables

to find probabilities for selected binomial
distributions.

Binomial cumulative probability:

P(x  k) = P(x = 0) +…+ P(x = k)

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Key Concepts
I. The Binomial Random Variable
1. Five characteristics:
the experiment consists of n identical trials;
each resulting in either success S or failure F;
probability of success is p and remains constant;
all trials are independent;
x is the number of successes in n trials.
2. Calculating binomial probabilities
a. Formula: P(x  k)  Ckn pk qnk
b. Cumulative binomial probability P(x  k).
3. Mean of the binomial random variable:  np
4. Variance and standard deviation:
 2  npq   npq
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Example

According to the Humane Society of the

United States, there are approximately 40% of
U.S. households own dogs. Suppose 15
households are selected at random. Find

1. probability that exactly 8 households own dogs?

2. probability that at most 3 households own dogs?
3. probability that more than 10 own dogs?
4. the mean, variance and standard deviation of
x, the number of households that own dogs.

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Example
According to the Humane Society of the
United States, there are approximately 40% of
U.S. households own dogs. Suppose 15
households are selected at random.
What is probability that exactly 8 households own
dogs?

n= 15 success = own dog p = .4 x= #

households
P( x  8)  C815 (.4)8 (.6)158 that own
 6435(.4)8 (.6) 7  .118 dog

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Example

What is the probability that at most 3

households own dogs?

P(x  3)  P(0)  P(1)  P(2)  P(3)

 C015(.4)0(.6)15 C115(.4)1(.6)14 C215(.4)2(.6)13 C315(.4)3(.6)12
.0005  .0047  .0219  .0634
.091

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Example
What are the mean, variance and
standard deviation of random variable
x?
(n=15, p=.4)

  np  15(.4)  6

 2  npq  15(.4)(.6)  3.6

   2  3.6  1.90

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Binomial Probability
• Probability distribution for Binomial random
variable x with n=15, p=0.4
Probability Distribution of Binomial n=15, p=.4

0.20

0.15
P(x)

0.10

0.05

0.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
x

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Example
1. What are the mean,
variance and standard   np  15(.4)  6
deviation of random  2  npq  15(.4)(.6)  3.6
variable x?
   2  3.6  1.90
2. Calculate interval
within 2 standard   2  6  2(1.9)  2.2
deviations of mean.   2  6  2(1.9)  9.8
What values fall into (2.2, 9.8)
this interval?
3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ,8 ,9
3. Find the probability
that x fall into this
interval. P(3  x  9)  P(3)  P(4)  ...  P(9)  .939
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