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s- An alarm svstem has a stand-by battery that keeps the system
working when the
illit main etectricat suppty faits. The probabitity of a suppty faiture in
any given weeki
is 0.15' How manytimt
0.04. The probabiiity of a battery faiting in any given week
over5yearswou[dyoueXpectbothtofaitinthesameweek?

sy.rf 6 The probability of a woman having toast for breakfast is 0.3. The probabitity of he
'.,1;;- newspaper being detivered on time is 0.75. The probability that she
will go to wol
probabitity thatl
in her car is 0.2. Assuming these are independent, work out the
a she witl have toast for breakfast and her newspaper will be delivered on time,
b she wi[[ have toast for breakfast and not go to work by car.

6.9 Tree diagrams

a Draw a tree diagram.

a Use a tree diagram to calcutate probabilities'

You can use a tree diagram to represent probabitities. Tree

diagrams can make
probability calcu lations easier.

probabitity of
Each branch of a tree diagram represents an outcome. The
outcome is written on the branch.

(G).A batt is chosen at random, the colour is noted and

A bag contains five red balts (R) and four green balts
batt is then reptaced in the bag. A second balt is then chosen and
the cotour noted'

a Draw a tree diagram to represent this information'

Draw the branches and write the
b What is the probabitity of getting one ball of each colour?
outcome atthe end ofeach
lstbaLI:zndbaIL:Outuvue:Probabilityafoutcone: Write the probabilitY on each
Eve*1t A Eve*tt B Events A P(A avtd B) = P(A) x ?(B)
and B Then write the outcome of each

F.brb, tu A Frtd. "d-l

loutcome'
=Y
l-7 , kana tk =tr.+=#
path.
Finatty calculate the probabitity
/ -:---"-.
^ai--, Kandcl =tr^+=#
of each outcome bY multi
together the Probabitities on

-y branches ofthe path taken.

+--\
' -=-l=-q The sum of the probabilitiesof

,/' a
Qanig =+^+=# outcomes is 1.

25, ZO,20,76-.r
gr'81'81 81
loutcome I
lgreen I

298
 b P(gettLvg ane of e,acLt colaur) = P(k ani G) + P(G and n-]
20 *20 Use the addition [aw.
=
81 81
:
40 P(A or B) P(A) + P(B)
n Add together the outcomes at the end ofthe branches for
'R and G'and 'G and R'.

Note that each path through the tree branches from left
to right produces a different outcome. There is a difference
between R followed by G and G followed by R.

A company is going to employ three new recruits and it interviews equal numbers of men and women. The recruits
are equally tikely to be male or female because of the company's equal opportunities policy.

Draw a tree diagram and use it to find the probabitity of all three recruits being female.

Rctruit 1 Rurni.t 2 Recruit 3 Outcovnz Prabability

of outcome
1
1 xI xl Draw the tree diagram and
FFF 772 write on it the outcomes
lil" FFM and the probability of each
t2 outcome.
FMF

M FlAM
12
AIFF
Look for any outcomes that
M A/LFM
have three Fs. There is only
one.
tZ
AAI\AF
Calculate the probabitity by
/\A,J\IM multiplying the probabilities
2 of each individuaI event.
111
P(FFF) =
z2z
-x-x-
1

Some branches of a tree diagram may end earlier than others.

There are 4 balls in a bag..One balI is red, the rest'are black. A person is allowed to select a-]all from the bag. lf
they Eelect a red ba[]the person wins the game.lf they select a black batlit is replaced.and the person tries again.
They are allowed 3 tries. {f they have not selected the red ball after 3 tries they [ose the game.
a Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.
b Work out the probability of:
i winning the game on the first go
ii losing the game.
2
299
a P(k)
1

Work out the probability of

P(e)
.+13
'++ selecting the red ba[[, P(R), andt
probability of setecting a black
I.tt Ja 2nd go 3rd go Outcavne Probability af
P(B).
outcovn&
Draw the branches and label
=1
+ Stop drawing a set of branches
3.1_3 when R is selected or three Bs
++16 found.
BBK =3 13 *L=
+++('+
1
Write the probability on each
branch, then write the outcome
*3 *3 =2J
=3+++c+ each path.
Fina[[y calcutate the probability
each outcome.
b i P(wtw f.rst ga) = P.(k)
1
=-+
Li P(Lase) = P(EBE)
27
("+

4fiF
t Bilat picks a card from a pack of 52 cards and George flips a fair coin.

a Work out the probability that Bilal picks a red card.

b Work out the probability that George gets a head.
c Copy and complete the tree diagram.

Card Result of Probability of

colour coin flip outcome

tl BH
-t-"-t
The sum of the 0.5.'/B
probabilities on a set of - BT

branches must equal 1.

\ ---"4
-*
_,
d What is the probabitity of Bilalgetting a red card and George getting a tai[?

9,t
t A box contains three red beads and four green beads. A bead is drawn from the
box and its colour is noted. The bead is returned to the box ind after the box is
shaken, a second bead is drawn.

a Draw a tree diagram to show all the different outcomes for the two bead
You need to add
colours.
together two
probabilities for part c. b Work out the probabitity of getting two red beads.

c Work out the probability of getting one red and one green bead.
' z
Ut
Silu*
/
| 3 Three fair ptastic discs have a L on one side and a 6 on the other.
'
I
a Use a tree diagram to show a[[ the possible resutts when the three discs are
flipped.

b Work out the probability of getting exactly two sixes.

c Work out the probability of getting at least two sixes.

smatt factory employs 5 men and 15 women. They make bags in two types of
|4 leather: A and B. Out of every 20 bags, L4 are made of leather A.
I A

Two different types of bag are made:a shoulder bag and a handbag. Both types
are made in equal numbers.

The government minister for trade is to visit the factory. The manager cannot
decide which bag the minister would like to take away as a reminder of her visit, so
he picks a bag at random.

a Draw a tree diagram to show the probabitity of the bag being made by a man/
woman from type A/B teather and being a shoulder bag/handbag.

b Wrire the probability that the minister will get a handbag in type A leather made
by a man.

c Write the probabitity that she will either get a shoulder bag made by a man in
type B leather; or a handbag made by a woman in type A leather.

Rachel appties to two colleges. The probabitity that she will be offered a place
in the first college is 0.6. The probabitity that she will be offered a place in the
second college is 0.5.

a Are the two events independent? Give a reason for your answer. (1 mark)

b Work out the probabitity that Rachel wi[[ not be offered a place in the first
coltege and that she will not be offered a place in the second college.
(2 marks)
-
6 A researcher randomly selects a factory for study from a list of 20 factories.
Eight of the factories are in the north of the country and the rest in the south.

Six of the northern factories do heavy engineering, the rest do tight engineering.
Six of the factories in the south do heavy engineering.

a Work out the probability that a factory in the north wi[[ do heavy engineering
b Work out the probability that a factory in the south wilt do heavy engineering.
c Draw a tree diagram to represent the information given.

d Work out the probability that a factory chosen at random will be doing heavy
engineering in the north of the country.

e Work out the probability that the factory chosen will be doing light engineering.

3dl
 -e;:E 7 This tree diagram shows the events:
?rrl-
It wi[[ rain tomorrow (R)
It witI not rain tomorrow (NR)
Yuri wilI be selected to play cricket for the first team (5)
Yuri wi[[ not be selected for the first team (NS)
The team only plays if it does not rain.

-7^
-\**1*,
\ts

a Copy and complete the tree diagram.

b Work out the probability of Yuri ptaying cricket tomorrow.

C Work out the probability of the game being played, but Yuri not being in the

6.10 Cond itionaI probability

Understand what it means for two events to be conditional.

Calculate conditionaI probability using a tree diagram, two-way table or Venn diagram.

Two events are conditional if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of the
other event. ConditionaI events are not independent.

The event that

happened first comes The probability that B will happen if A has happened is the conditional
last in the bracket. probability of B given A. lt is written P(B|A).

John takes his coat to school on some days but not on others.
He is more tikely to take his coat if it is raining.
TheprobabitityofJohntakinghiscoatifitisrainingis0.9.
The probabitity of John taking his coat if it is not raining is 0.2.
i Write these as conditional probabilities.

P(Johntakr"s Ltk caatglve,wthnt tt w raLnivg) = P(Clk) = 0.1

P(JaLu+takzr Ltts coatgLvet+thnt tt t: wt ratnivg) = P(Clwt K) = g.2